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Speaker 1: It's sponsorship time. But you know what, it's really great

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Speaker 1: when you get a sponsor that you already use. And

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Speaker 1: guess what. Quint's is something that in the Todd household

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Speaker 1: we already go to. Why do we go to Quint's

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Speaker 1: Because it's a place you go where you can get

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Speaker 1: some really nice clothes without the really expensive prices. And

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Speaker 1: one of the things I've been going through is I've

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Speaker 1: transitioned from being mister cot and ty guy to wanting

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Speaker 1: a little more casual but to look nice doing it.

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Speaker 1: Is I've become mister quarter zip guy. Well guess what.

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Speaker 1: Guess who's got amazing amounts of quarter zips? It is Quints.

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Speaker 1: I have gotten quite a few already from there. The

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Speaker 1: stuff's really nice. They have Mongolian cashmere sweaters for fifty dollars.

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Speaker 1: I just know, hey, cashmere, that's pretty good. You don't

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Speaker 1: normally get that for fifty bucks or less. Italian wool

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Speaker 1: coats that look and feel like designer the stuff. I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, right, you look at it online, you think, okay,

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Speaker 1: is this really as nice as it looks? Well, when

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Speaker 1: I got it, I was like, oh, this is real quality.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going to end up making sure I

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Speaker 1: take it to my dry cleaner so I don't screw

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Speaker 1: it up when I clean it. But I've been quite impressed.

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Speaker 1: In Hey, it's holiday season. It is impossible to shop

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you you're going to find something that is

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck.

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Speaker 1: Use that code. So joining me now with frankly without

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Speaker 1: a I'm not gonna sit here and say we have

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Speaker 1: a specific reason we're talking other than I like to

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Speaker 1: talk to smart, interesting people, and Mike Pesca is smart.

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Speaker 1: You'll just decide how interesting he is, but he seems

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Speaker 1: to be interesting enough. I could in that many of

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Speaker 1: you may be listeners to his podcast, maybe subscribers to

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Speaker 1: his newsletter to things that I am so with that,

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Speaker 1: mister Pesca, who I blew it? I thought I was

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Speaker 1: thinking fish is your last name, and you're like, no,

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Speaker 1: it's Italian for peaches, right.

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Speaker 2: That's why the GISTs production company is Peachfish Productions, because

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Speaker 2: the peach is literally Italian. Yeah. Many Spanish verb forms

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Speaker 2: of two fish.

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Speaker 1: Are the fish. So yeah, you know what, you know,

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Speaker 1: two things I wouldn't want to eat together.

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Speaker 2: I think that probably a good chefish marmally glad, But you.

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Speaker 1: Would have to make the peach. You'd have to make

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Speaker 1: it more like mango and like create a salsa. I

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Speaker 1: guess you could say you could probably create a peach

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Speaker 1: salsa that's on your fish taco.

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Speaker 2: It's a challenge, right, It would definitely be something that

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Speaker 2: would break most contestants on cooking shows.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So, first of all, I appreciate you. You seem

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Speaker 1: to be always making content, so I appreciate that you're

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Speaker 1: helping me make content. How how many how many side

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Speaker 1: hustles do you have? And what do you what do

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Speaker 1: you say you do these days for a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes you have so many side hustles that you say

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Speaker 2: is they're a real hustle. I've been doing the Gist

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Speaker 2: for twelve years, almost twelve years, the longest running news

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Speaker 2: and analysis podcast, and that is daily. It's actually six

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Speaker 2: days a week.

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Speaker 1: That's what I used to say about Meet the Press,

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Speaker 1: the longest running television show.

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Speaker 2: You're longest that's documentable. With podcasts, there is a little

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Speaker 2: bit of wiggle room because no one's taking account in

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Speaker 2: the beginning.

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Speaker 1: And the fastest growing podcast in the in the two

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Speaker 1: two two zero seven zip code. I don't know about you,

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Speaker 1: but anyway.

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Speaker 2: Wow, you know, the bragging chock is a little it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit unbecoming, is what I'm saying here. Yes,

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Speaker 2: so I do that, and then I have the substat

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Speaker 2: which is every day we have the just List, which

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Speaker 2: are a bunch of stories I maybe can't get to

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Speaker 2: on the Gist. And then I do a written piece

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, and I'm taking over. I can't announce it,

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Speaker 2: but I'm taking over a new podcast where maybe maybe

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Speaker 2: you'll be on asking people how to refurbish your second floor.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say that well, all right, well I am,

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Speaker 1: I have refurbished the second floor. I need to clean

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Speaker 1: up my second floor. How do I accomplish my exercise

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Speaker 1: refurbishing of all of that. If I thought of one

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Speaker 1: theme I wanted to speak with you about, it is

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Speaker 1: the fact that you know it's interesting. I sort of

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Speaker 1: began my calendar year getting started in this world of

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Speaker 1: independent media going on your podcast early. You were sort

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Speaker 1: of very very gracious with that. But it's been quite

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Speaker 1: a year in media in general, especially legacy media, and

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Speaker 1: sort of like, if you think about where we began

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Speaker 1: and where we ended, is the information ecosystem at the

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Speaker 1: end of twenty twenty five worse or better than at

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Speaker 1: the start of twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 2: Okay, just twenty twenty five. I say it's potentially better,

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Speaker 2: maybe because so much of the degradation is baked in

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Speaker 2: and priced in, and it's not getting worse and we've

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Speaker 2: been habituated to it.

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Speaker 1: But a couple of the.

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Speaker 2: Big trends, one that is often decried by my left

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Speaker 2: leaning friends is what's happening with CBS and Barry Weiss

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Speaker 2: and full disclosure. I've written a couple pieces for the

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Speaker 2: Free Press. The way I look at. That is two

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Speaker 2: things I know that people will slam Barry Weis for that.

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Speaker 2: They say bringing more of a right leaning sensibility to CBS,

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Speaker 2: to which I say, there are three broadcast networks and

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Speaker 2: five all news networks or quasi news networks with significant budgets.

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Speaker 2: I'm not counting oh and the like all the news

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Speaker 2: nation does some nice things, and four of them, if

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Speaker 2: we're being fair, before Barry took control, were somewhere in

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Speaker 2: the center to left leaning. So I know, as you

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Speaker 2: know NBC, the NBC, NBC very much tried not to

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Speaker 2: be but of course MSNBC was left leaning to be honest,

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Speaker 2: and CNN will I think they tacked more to the center,

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Speaker 2: Fox being right leaning. But what I'm saying is just

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Speaker 2: in terms of if you take away everyone's strong feelings

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Speaker 2: about politics, if you're just looking at them as businesses,

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Speaker 2: and four businesses on the block were selling ice cream

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Speaker 2: and kind of not doing that great, and one business

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Speaker 2: on the block was selling cotton candy and doing quite well.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't some combo.

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Speaker 2: Cotton candy ice cream business maybe be the smart play?

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Speaker 2: So this is all I'm saying. If you want to

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Speaker 2: call Barry right wood or center right. She would call it.

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Speaker 2: She really tried to say she's trying to keep it

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Speaker 2: between the forty yard lines. It seems like a smart

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Speaker 2: enough repositioning. And to that, I'd add, if you were

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Speaker 2: to hire a person to do this, why not hire

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Speaker 2: the only person who's built the truly successful media business

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Speaker 2: from scratch in the last five years. There's a case

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Speaker 2: that Ben Smith of Semaphore is doing something similar. I

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Speaker 2: think on smaller scales, even big Barry White's critics like

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Speaker 2: Oliver Darcy, I think, is making a million dollars with

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Speaker 2: his substack, and there are some substacked successes, but Barry's

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Speaker 2: the biggest success. So add that up, a little bit

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Speaker 2: differentiation in the news business and a track record of success.

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Speaker 2: I'm more interested than concerned. Let's say I think she

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Speaker 2: could do good things. I don't know, what do you think?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I've not. I am all four. I am sort

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Speaker 1: of rooting for the disruption, right, you know. I've seen

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Speaker 1: and I benefited from a disruptor coming into NBC, a

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Speaker 1: woman by the name of Debora Turnas, who I still

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Speaker 1: find to be one of the best network executives I

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Speaker 1: ever worked with. Because she wasn't afraid. She wasn't afraid

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Speaker 1: to break things, and look it got her the BBC job.

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Speaker 1: And then of course she had a fall on her

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Speaker 1: sword for something that happened below her. But that's also

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Speaker 1: says something about her, meaning like she sort of she

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Speaker 1: gets it. Okay, that's on me. You know, I'm the

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Speaker 1: buck stops with me. So I'm all for seeing disruption

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Speaker 1: because I've seen network executives that just try to placate

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Speaker 1: the bosses right don't succeed. And so my only question

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Speaker 1: of her decision was you left the Times because you

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Speaker 1: didn't like working for the Salzburgers. Are you sure you

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Speaker 1: wanted to give up your independence to work for the Eleisons? Right?

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Speaker 1: Like that? That would be and that's like, to me,

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Speaker 1: the biggest It's funny. I also think this has been

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Speaker 1: a turning point for the collective media, meaning that you're

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Speaker 1: starting to see the audience feel more comfortable in the

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Speaker 1: independent spaces. You're seeing more people feel more comfortable trying

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Speaker 1: to launch in the independent space. And you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: pessimistic that any of the legacy media companies can be

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Speaker 1: They have good brands, and they can certainly tweak shows

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Speaker 1: and use their resources. You know specific I just don't

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Speaker 1: know if any of the legacy news divisions are ever

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Speaker 1: going to be what they were, right, because there's no

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Speaker 1: money in it, right, There's no financial incentive. It is

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Speaker 1: really it's just about whether, you know, in the case

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Speaker 1: of the Ellison's, Like, here'd be my fear if I

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Speaker 1: were Berry, if Wes Moore is the next president of

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Speaker 1: the United States, do the Ellison's care about the news

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Speaker 1: division anymore? Right? You know, because Wes Moore isn't like

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Speaker 1: on top of them, you know, helping them with other

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Speaker 1: business deals. And in order to get those business deals,

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Speaker 1: they've got to placate the with certain things with the

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Speaker 1: media business, with the news side of things, right, and

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Speaker 1: that would be something which is does all of the

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Speaker 1: you know, right now I'm getting what if I'm Barry,

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Speaker 1: I'm getting some running room. I get to do a

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Speaker 1: special on Saturday nights, and which is the lowest, you know,

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Speaker 1: the lowest rated portion of network television, which is why

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Speaker 1: a lot of times you will see town halls and

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Speaker 1: special news presentations either on Friday evenings or Saturday evenings. Yes,

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Speaker 1: because literally those are the two nights that they can't

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Speaker 1: sell ads for or.

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Speaker 2: Counter program with a Charlie Brown special from twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Ago, exactly exactly, So that would be my concern whether

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Speaker 1: there is really an interest in allowing CBS to stay

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Speaker 1: disruptive CBS News beyond sort of what feels like performance

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Speaker 1: art for the man in the Oval office.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, a couple points. Did Barry and I've never

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Speaker 2: talked to her about the Sulzburgers per se or ae

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Speaker 2: did she defect? She defected from The New York Times?

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Speaker 2: Was it Salzburger thing? The way I analyze what happened.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, that's my point, But you

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Speaker 1: are the Salzburgers do care about that opinion page?

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Speaker 2: I think at the time, which was the height of

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Speaker 2: the New York Times being sort of redefined away from

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Speaker 2: the idea of objectivity, it had gotten out of control

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Speaker 2: and out of the hands of a Salzburger. And you

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Speaker 2: probably read I don't know how many.

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Speaker 1: Out of the hands of Dean Buckay. I mean, who

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Speaker 1: was trying. He couldn't manage his own You know, you

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Speaker 1: had basically a revolt. I believe you let the And

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Speaker 1: this to me has been something I've been obsessed with,

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Speaker 1: which is be careful of the audience you build, because

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Speaker 1: you may become captive of your audience subscribers.

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Speaker 2: I think at a certain point Nicole Hannah Jones was

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Speaker 2: more important in the New York Times than Dean Buckay,

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Speaker 2: and she's done great work. But this is a bad situation.

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Speaker 2: You know. These are we know from sports, when the

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Speaker 2: star becomes more important than the coach, who you defer to.

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Speaker 2: My point with the Salzburgers is I see a lot

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Speaker 2: of evidence that he specifically was uncomfortable with where his

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Speaker 2: newspaper had gone, and he wrote a large piece in

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Speaker 2: the Columbia Journalism Review, which is only going to be

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Speaker 2: read by journalists, but it was a signal we are

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Speaker 2: getting back to the idea of objectivity. He knew he

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Speaker 2: couldn't use the word objectivity. It's a really interesting essay.

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Speaker 2: He even said that word is so toxic among so

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Speaker 2: many people in news, which I think is really interesting

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Speaker 2: and alarming that I'm not even going to try to

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Speaker 2: defend the word objectivity. We just believe in independence journalism.

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Speaker 2: And then he goes on to define independent journalism as

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Speaker 2: objectivity or something like objectivity.

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Speaker 1: So that's point one.

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Speaker 2: I think that where the New York Times is now

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Speaker 2: is a place that is a bit more aligned with

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Speaker 2: maybe Barrywise's worldview. The other thing I'd say about the

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Speaker 2: Ellisons is, you're right if Wes Moore, if someone common

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Speaker 2: soothing or at least just not.

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Speaker 1: Just sort of like less a little boring. Let's be honest, right,

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Speaker 1: Andy Bisheer, And I say this, though you know that

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Speaker 1: sounds like a big criticizing It may be that America

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Speaker 1: wants boring come twenty twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: So you're saying not Gavin Newsome, like Gavin might be

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Speaker 2: a lightning rod would I would.

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Speaker 1: Be surprised if we go from big personality to big personality. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I actually think you know, usually what we do as

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Speaker 1: a country, if you think about it, when we elect

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Speaker 1: a new president, and we will be electing a new

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Speaker 1: one in twenty eight, we usually elect somebody who has

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Speaker 1: more of a character trait that the previous one is missing.

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Speaker 2: Right after that week got Pope, a skinny pope. All

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Speaker 2: that's sort of mindset, like I go through it right. H. W.

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Speaker 2: Bush was kind of detached. Bill Clinton was feel your

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Speaker 2: pain right. Bill Clinton was a bit of a party animal.

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Speaker 1: George W. Bush was the reformed alcoholic that wasn't going

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Speaker 1: to you know, stray. George Bush saw everything in black

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Speaker 1: and white. Barack Obama was nothing but gray area nuanced right,

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Speaker 1: you know. So we do have this tendency, and so

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Speaker 1: that's why I am I wouldn't you know, this is

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Speaker 1: not personal to Gavin Newsom. I'm bearish on his chances

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Speaker 1: to be the next president, more out of character and

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Speaker 1: temperament sort of comparisons to Trump. Well, do we want

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Speaker 1: another big personality that's constantly where the world revolves around

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Speaker 1: the personality rather than the country as a whole.

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Speaker 2: Good analysis, as always is what we expect from you.

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Speaker 2: But my point was was this, if people, I know

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Speaker 2: you don't think this, I assume you don't. If people

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Speaker 2: took your analysis about if it's Wes Moore, do they

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Speaker 2: become unengaged. It is not the case that, especially David Allison,

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Speaker 2: who has more hands on control of the newsroom, is maga.

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Speaker 1: Is even agast maga.

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Speaker 2: I'm not a Republican conservative. He gave one hundred million

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Speaker 2: to the Joe Biden Fund. So it is not if

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Speaker 2: people hear that and say, oh, unless the unless CBS

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Speaker 2: is allowed to run an ideological newsroom, he's going to

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Speaker 2: become uninvolved. That's not the case, and that's not what

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Speaker 2: you're saying. It's just if things calm down and politics

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Speaker 2: aren't the way to get people's attention or for him

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Speaker 2: to make money. Because a politician donald Trump will be

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Speaker 2: so involved in our regulatory schemes, he might get less involved.

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Speaker 2: But it's not because that he's ideologically committed.

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Speaker 1: No, I think it's more of that, And I've never

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Speaker 1: thought I think you know, I don't think Silicon Valley

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Speaker 1: is ideologically aligned with Trump. I think they are just

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Speaker 1: seeing it as the fastest way to get from A

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Speaker 1: to B. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think many in Silicon Valley are, if not ideologically

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Speaker 2: aligned with things like tariffs, were extremely upset with DEI

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Speaker 2: and wokeism, and also thought that there were elements of

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Speaker 2: the Biden regulatory scheme that are challenging what they were

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Speaker 2: trying to do to improve society.

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Speaker 1: I'll give you a shorter version of that. Biden did

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Speaker 1: allow the bureaucrats to play a role. Trump will allow

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Speaker 1: you to shortcut and in getting around regulatory issues. Yes,

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Speaker 1: but of.

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Speaker 2: Course it's just had not because of some well thought

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Speaker 2: out planned.

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Speaker 1: No, it's transaction, and that's my point, right, is to

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Speaker 1: go back to the original point, will Barry have a

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Speaker 1: budget in twenty nine If the Ellisons decide, hey, they

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Speaker 1: don't need to placate a president with the news division anymore,

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Speaker 1: we'll spend our lobbying dollars another way. Essentially, it's sort

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Speaker 1: of like it's almost as if the news division is

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Speaker 1: part of your lobbying budget, right, And if you're Frankly,

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Speaker 1: if you're Disney, if you're Comcast and your paramount skuidant,

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Speaker 1: you kind of are operating that way.

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Speaker 2: And the other thing to say is that this is

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Speaker 2: all fascinating to us in some portion of your audience.

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Speaker 2: But with the CBS news viewers, we're talking about five

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Speaker 2: percent of America.

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Speaker 1: Well, and we're also talking about generationally only one demographic group.

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Speaker 1: I mean, have you seen the average age of the

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Speaker 1: cable newsviewer.

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Speaker 2: It's not seventy They died three years ago. And the

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Speaker 2: other thing with CBS, well, they have these amazing properties,

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Speaker 2: these legacy properties. Sixty minutes. I love sixty minutes, but

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Speaker 2: I'm not convinced that sixty minutes. The reason that they're

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Speaker 2: so popular is because of who they are and their

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Speaker 2: attention to detail and their story selection but I think

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Speaker 2: it all comes down to there after football.

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Speaker 1: Of it comes down. By the way, do you know

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Speaker 1: what they never do? They never They never saved their

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Speaker 1: best stuff for the spring. No, okay, which, by the way,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's like why do you what do they ask?

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Speaker 1: Is it the and Clyde? Why do you rob banks?

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Speaker 1: That's where the money is. It's like, you know, why

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Speaker 1: do you save your stories for the faults where the

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Speaker 1: audience is right. It's where it's right after football, So

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Speaker 1: of course you do. But i'd look at do I think.

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Speaker 1: I will say this about CBS if you think about it,

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Speaker 1: they have between Sunday morning and sixty minutes, they have

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Speaker 1: two of the more interesting brands that have a chance

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Speaker 1: to survive even if the network doesn't.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, distinct brands, brands that mean something. And not only

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Speaker 2: will people be sad that they go, but if you

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Speaker 2: took them and put them somewhere else, it's very clear.

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Speaker 2: Their DNA is so unique that you could have a

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Speaker 2: turnkey operation.

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Speaker 1: We know, I think sixty minutes, I think, and so

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Speaker 1: I have this. We're about to see the next big

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Speaker 1: shake up in the way people consume information. It's going

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Speaker 1: to come at the local TV affiliate level right where

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Speaker 1: you have the So we have this mega merger coming

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Speaker 1: up between Tech and next Star, and what that is

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Speaker 1: going to create is a lot of overlap in a

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Speaker 1: lot of their markets, and you're going to have these

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Speaker 1: duopolies that are going to start popping up, and you

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Speaker 1: already see them. My hometown of Miami is now the

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Speaker 1: largest market in the country with the duopoly. The person

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Speaker 1: that owns the you Know channel, the Fox affiliate also

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Speaker 1: owns now the ABC affiliate. But he's only gonna have

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Speaker 1: one news division and there isn't going to be local

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Speaker 1: news for the ABC affiliate. It really is just sort

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Speaker 1: of a digital channel that will just you know, provide

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Speaker 1: the ABC programming, which for most people in South Florida

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Speaker 1: is football. But what you're going to have is I

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Speaker 1: actually think we're about three or four years away from

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Speaker 1: what I call a la carte where everything becomes a

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Speaker 1: la carte, where you might have a local affiliate say

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Speaker 1: you know what we want, we want Savannah Guthrie in

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Speaker 1: the morning. We want I want the Tony diacoppole in

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Speaker 1: the evening. I want Meet the Press on Sunday, but

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Speaker 1: I want CBS Sunday Morning, right it's good. I have

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Speaker 1: a feeling we're going in the same way we're watching

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Speaker 1: this with with people in our space here in the

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Speaker 1: independent space starting to license their content on a Pluto

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Speaker 1: or on a Netflix or on Amazon. I think we're

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Speaker 1: about to see the same thing explode in the local

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Speaker 1: TV Atfilly Market, which means we're going to find out,

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Speaker 1: you know, how big of a brand is Good Morning

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Speaker 1: of America, Good Morning America? How big a brand? I

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Speaker 1: think today's show's pretty big. You know what about the

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning programming? Right, you'll where the brands will matter

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Speaker 1: more than the network itself that they appear.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and the reason is this is how the consumer,

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Speaker 2: the under seventy three average age consumer, programs their own

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Speaker 2: news already. They you know, my kids don't know what

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Speaker 2: a network is or what a channel is.

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Speaker 1: The channel numbers meaningless to my kids. I have an

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Speaker 1: eighteen year old and a twenty one year old. They

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Speaker 1: don't know the numbers any They know news for that's it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I just I get you a PV and there

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Speaker 2: aren't numbers assigned, so news for was just I mean,

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Speaker 2: they could have called themselves news Purple. It doesn't. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, it is all changing, and we haven't even

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Speaker 2: talked about print. We haven't even talked about what we

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Speaker 2: really need, which is investigative journalism and journalism with a

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Speaker 2: lot of teeth, and journalism that can stand up to pressure.

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Speaker 2: And I think that their Pro Publica does a great job.

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Speaker 2: Some of the nonprofits want to do a good job,

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Speaker 2: but I think and I think there is a certain

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Speaker 2: amount of appetite for it. But what the great newspapers,

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Speaker 2: especially newspapers used to be able to do, was fund

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Speaker 2: these efforts from their advertising, from their car advertising, from

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Speaker 2: especially their want ads and their classifieds. And that's all done.

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Speaker 2: So not only do you have these, you know, all

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Speaker 2: these city councils not being covered. You just don't have

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Speaker 2: the great investigation that the Indianapolis Star or the Kansas

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Speaker 2: City Star or the Sacramento Bee was gonna do. As

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Speaker 2: a matter of course, because that's what you did. Then

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00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 2: we don't even know, oh what the price of having

400
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: all that lost is. And maybe it's just local and

401
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 2: maybe it doesn't get above the land commissioner for Albuquerque,

402
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: but it's a big loss.

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Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

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Speaker 1: We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

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Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself

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Speaker 1: sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to

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Speaker 1: pay for college? And lo and behold, my dad had

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Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found. It wasn't a lot,

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Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

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Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

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432
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about it,

433
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 1: especially if you've got a growing family. I guess I'm

434
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: like A, I'm optimistic because B I want to try

435
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: to build something that scales that because I think that's

436
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 1: a gap in the market. I completely agree. And you

437
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 1: know what I worry about is some journalism can be

438
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 1: done independently in solo. You and I are proven this,

439
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: But there are some things I could I would love

440
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: to do, but I need more resources. I need literally

441
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: more physical human beings. I don't care how many Geminis

442
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: or chat Gypts you're going to give me. They all

443
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: can't walk the street, right, they can't do the door

444
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: knocking that you sometimes need in an investigative journalism. And

445
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: I think that this is what you know, my hope

446
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 1: is that we'll start to see new consortiums, you know,

447
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: after the sort of you know, if you look at

448
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 1: the history of UPI, which was a wire service before

449
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: the AP existed, and AP was a different type of

450
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 1: wire service they really were. They started off as attempts

451
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: to try to allow local news organizations to share resources

452
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: and share material. It was in some ways, hey, oh

453
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 1: that might be of use to our readers too. You know,

454
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,239
Speaker 1: we can trade off and if you figure out how

455
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: to ban these folks together that maybe they can start

456
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 1: working together on collaborative investigative pieces. Right. Pro Publica does

457
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: this a little bit, well, they'll team up with a

458
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: with a news organization. Notice is doing this with some

459
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 1: small independent locals there. They're being the Washington Bureau. Do

460
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: you like what I do too? Oh my gosh, I

461
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: just had two of their founders on, two of their

462
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: young folks on, Because for me, Mike, Notice is suddenly

463
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 1: the only news organization based in Washington, d C. That

464
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: covers Washington, d C. The Washington Post might as well

465
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: be called the Post. They have decided to no longer

466
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 1: be as it former former right they knew longer need

467
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: to be. They have gotten rid of everything that made

468
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 1: them Washington, right, even the food critic there. You know,

469
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: their their sports page has never been smaller and less impactful.

470
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 2: And that was how the Post and the Boston Globe,

471
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: just the two great regional sports pages, launched so many stars.

472
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 2: And now they just and even before that the style section,

473
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 2: which was such a great section and oh no it

474
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: wasn't about styles.

475
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really frustrates me because it feels as if

476
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: Bezos said I want to be the Wall Street Journal

477
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: and you're like, well, we already have one, and they're.

478
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: Better at it than you guys are I think you

479
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: said I want to be Reason Magazine. I mean, he's

480
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: stole their.

481
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,119
Speaker 1: Entire Can I get I have one? You know, we

482
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: were talking about different editorial pages. Here's something I wish

483
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos had thought of, and I wish mister Salzburger

484
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: would think of. Why does an editor? Why why do

485
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: you have to have one? Who set the rule to

486
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: say you only are allowed to have one? Why not?

487
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: You know, Look, we live in a world where partisanship

488
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: is in stereo. Do I wish we didn't? Maybe I'd

489
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 1: wish we didn't, But you know what, two hundred of

490
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 1: our two hundred and fifty years. We have lived this way.

491
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 1: Our media has been partisan much longer than it has

492
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: been nonpartisan. Okay, we had a brief window between World

493
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: War two and nine to eleven where we had basically

494
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: a media that attempted to not affiliate with a party.

495
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 1: But before that and frankly after, it's actually been par

496
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: for the course that media sort of identified with a

497
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 1: with a movement.

498
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 2: This is why the papers are called the Rochester Democrat.

499
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: This pretty right, I try.

500
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: It's sort of one of these things that I tell

501
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 1: journalism schools all the time. Hey, guys, this is not

502
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: new right. The Waterbury Republican, the Arkansas Democrat is at

503
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: the tail Assi Democrat. You brought up Rochester is another one.

504
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 1: What's wrong with having two editorial pages? Wouldn't it been great?

505
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be great if the New York Times had,

506
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:44,959
Speaker 1: you know, basically had a conservative editorial essentially section and

507
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:50,439
Speaker 1: a liberal editorial section and frankly allowed them to be

508
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: side by side.

509
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

510
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: Back in the nineties, the Atlanta Journal Constitution, when they

511
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 1: had to do their joint operating agreement on Sunday, printed

512
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: one news newspaper and their editorial page on the left

513
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: was the Atlantic Constitution and on the right was the

514
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 1: Atlanta Journal.

515
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I lived in Atlanta then, and it the greatest.

516
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 2: Tell you it covered Dixie like to do.

517
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 1: But how great is that? Like? Why is that? Why

518
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 1: is that not? Like that's the world I lived in.

519
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: My father was a conservative who always wanted to know

520
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 1: what the liberals were saying. So he subscribed to National

521
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: Review and New Republic. Yeah, all right. He thought the

522
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 1: Nation was too far of the left, but he was

523
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 1: in the New Republic. It was like, that's al Gore's

524
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: It was like I remember him saying, yeah, the guy

525
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 1: is a big al Gore guy. And you know, you know,

526
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: back in the day Marty parrots and yet but the

527
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: point was he wanted both sides of an argument. He

528
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: wanted to hear it, both sides of the argument. I

529
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: don't know why newspapers decided they only should have one voice.

530
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: That's how I was raised. My dad was a social

531
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: studies teacher, the consummate social studies teacher. When I got

532
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: into news, he said, let me subscribe you to I

533
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 2: swear the two magazines that I got from the age

534
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 2: of twelve to eighteen, where the National Review in the

535
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 2: New Republic. I mean those were trailblazing magazines then, and

536
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: I learned the latter from them. I think one of

537
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 2: the reasons it doesn't work is that what you just

538
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 2: said audience capture, and that the audience you and I

539
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 2: want that. And if you poll people, they would say

540
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: they want that, but.

541
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: I say they want it, yeah, but they don't.

542
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: I think feel dedicated news consumers? Are they? Some are

543
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: news consumers, many are ideology consumers. Many are tell me

544
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,479
Speaker 2: the world, give me a reflection of the world as

545
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: I see it consumers. And I don't know this is

546
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: overly harsh a criticism, but what if The New York

547
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 2: Times did a liberal or conservative editorial page. I'm sure

548
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: someone listening to this would say they tried it, and

549
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 2: then James Bennett got fired based on publishing the Tom

550
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 2: Cotton op ed. I think that, Yeah, that's an ideal.

551
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 2: I don't know that we'll ever regain that time.

552
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: No, we're not. But the reason I'm disappointed in Bezos

553
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: in this is that he had actually applied the lessons

554
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 1: he learned from building Amazon the Everything store. Imagine imagine

555
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: if he behaved as if I want to build the

556
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: Everything information.

557
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 2: Store yes, but he wants to maximize profit with Amazon,

558
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: and the Post is a different consideration.

559
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: Well, he bought a trophy. I thought he wanted to

560
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: help the business, and it turns out he just wanted

561
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: a trophy. And then suddenly it wasn't cool to own

562
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: the trophy, and he was like, oh shit, I either

563
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: think he's used in the trophy or do I now

564
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: just use it for my own benefit.

565
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: And that's why he's using it as he uses his

566
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: contract to do a biopic of Malanya Trump. He uses

567
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 2: it for lobbying.

568
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: Although when he bought the.

569
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 2: Trophy, I remember, I think it was a two hundred

570
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 2: and fifty million dollar purchase. Was that the price? I

571
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 2: remember the Jacksonville Jaguars went for I think three seventy five,

572
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: and I remember thinking, what are we doing with society

573
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 2: that the Jaguars are worth only one hundred and twenty

574
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 2: five million more? Now, the Jaguar, like every NFL franchise,

575
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 2: is probably worth a billion.

576
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: In the post can be sold.

577
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 2: For food, for parts. It's five billion, I think.

578
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 1: Remember there's only thirty two trophies available in the NFL.

579
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: Even the least valuable trophies, probably a five billion dollar

580
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: trophy now.

581
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, five billion.

582
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, So let's talk about AI, because you know, I've

583
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: I can vacillate. I am. I am a long term

584
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 1: AI optimist, meaning I'm betting on human beings that we're not.

585
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: We're a species that has survived quite a bit over

586
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: a million years, and we're not going to let robots

587
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: replace us. So I am, but I am mindful that

588
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: the transition is going to be quite painful, and I

589
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: do think that increasingly the next three years are going

590
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 1: to be about fear of AI displacement, even though again

591
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: I think, you know, we'll, we'll probably. My guess is

592
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: the fears a little too soon. Like anything, it's probably

593
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: coming sooner than we should actually be fearing it. But

594
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: that's how I try to comfort myself and how I

595
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: remain optimistic in the long run about AI, even though

596
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: this is going to be extraordinarily disruptive in the moment.

597
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 1: Where's your head on this?

598
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: There was just a pull out that showed a huge

599
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: decline in optimism or even excitement about AI. They expect,

600
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: I mean, the vast majority of people expect AI to

601
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 2: harm human abilities by twenty thirty five.

602
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: Do you blame them for thinking that, by the way, no,

603
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: given what social media, given what the tech companies did

604
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 1: to us with social media, right.

605
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 2: People, And also science fiction and our storytelling plays a role,

606
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 2: and so there's I'd say the ratio of dystopian to

607
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 2: utopian science fiction is something like one hundred to one.

608
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 2: It's more easy to tell stories about destruction, although Star

609
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: Trek is utopian science fiction. So you know, our mind

610
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: goes to threats. The reason that we are here, as

611
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 2: the people who've evolved over a million years, is because

612
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 2: we understand threats.

613
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: Right.

614
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: We evolve from the people who were best position to

615
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: understand the threats and flee the saber tooth tiger, whereas

616
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: our would be ancestors who were like, no big deal,

617
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: they got eaten. They didn't get to reproduce. All that said,

618
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: there are three camps with AI. The accelerationists who say,

619
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: bring it on, it's going to change humanity. A lot

620
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 2: of them have money involved, right. The doomers, who some

621
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: prominent people who could have made a lot of money

622
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: with AI give it a twenty percent chance of killing

623
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: us all one day. There are a couple prominent people

624
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 2: give it a ninety eight percent chance. Then in between

625
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: and This is a phrase invented by my friend Andy Mills,

626
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: who just made a good podcast, great podcast about this

627
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: called the Last Invention the Scouts. And this is where

628
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: I am, which is pay attention, don't be afraid, be

629
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: very afraid, but understand the transformative power of this. When

630
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 2: Sam Altman testified, maybe you remembering three, he was greeted,

631
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 2: he shocked the Senate Commerce Committee because he said, yes,

632
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: please regulate me. And this was a message that they

633
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: wanted to hear. That was a message I wanted to hear.

634
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 2: It was refreshing and unusual for a captain of industry

635
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: to ask for regulation. Cut to two years later, the

636
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 2: big concern is China, and he said, well, I don't

637
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 2: know about all this regulation. We've got to beat China.

638
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 1: So what changed?

639
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 2: Was it just China? Was it Sam Altman in both

640
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: cases trying to play cat or meet Congress where it was.

641
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 2: I'm definitely not a doomer. I think it can be

642
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 2: totally transformative, especially when it reaches what's called artificial general intelligence.

643
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: This is the computers teaching themselves and accelerating and accelerating.

644
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 2: But man, do we need more visibility into how it works?

645
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: And I'll add this, They don't even know how it works.

646
00:34:56,080 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: The people who program AI, who invented AI, will tell you, yeah,

647
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 2: we it's kind of a black box and we can't

648
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: exactly pick it apart and tell you why it did that,

649
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 2: not just beforehand, but even afterwards. And that's that is legitimately.

650
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 1: Scary, No, it is, especially when we realize that also

651
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 1: we're I mean, we've not had the correct generation matched

652
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: with the technological regulatory demands that we've had. Right when

653
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: the Internet first came along, we had a whole bunch

654
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: of people that were very analogued right by the time

655
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 1: social media came.

656
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: Along, saying the Internet was a system of tubes.

657
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: Right, and then you go to you know, as we

658
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: go to social media, you have people that are still

659
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to use email with their

660
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: Aol dot com. You know, they're still figuring out tact

661
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:48,760
Speaker 1: By the time we've got an AI, you have people

662
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 1: that are still just now getting comfortable with the iPhone premise. Right.

663
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 1: So that's that's what's scary, is that the people we

664
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: all like to be the watchers are probably not qualified

665
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: to know what to watch for. Yeah, even if it

666
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: adds to the concern.

667
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 2: Right, and even if they were, I mean, some of

668
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,959
Speaker 2: these people have backgrounds in the extractive industries. They don't

669
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: seem too keen on regulating them. There is a Congress

670
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 2: doesn't seem keen on being Congress. You know, even Nancy

671
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 2: Mace is writing op eds. What is Congress for? They've

672
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 2: willingly abdicated their regulative responsibilities. One of the things though,

673
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: that gives me pause. I have great hope for it,

674
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: and I always think, even with the Internet, I'm more

675
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,760
Speaker 2: in favor of it than opposed. I owe my life

676
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: to the idea of podcasting. Otherwise, you know, I wouldn't

677
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,240
Speaker 2: be able to get my voice outside wherever a radio

678
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 2: tower would take me. Maybe satellites would exist. But I

679
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: look at the history of big innovations and there's always

680
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 2: the doomer. There's always the person who's an expert who

681
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 2: gets a lot of attention, because, like I said, our

682
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: minds go towards, well, what's the worst thing that can happen.

683
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 2: And at one point it was this guy named King

684
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 2: Hubbert who predicted peak oil, and he was an experty

685
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 2: worked for Shell. He had many people with their colorful

686
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: charts written in you know, nineteen nineties, fonts we're gonna

687
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: run out of oil. That was a big concern I

688
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 2: think cuts it. Today. A lot of environmentalists would say,

689
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 2: thank god, we're going to run out of oil. But

690
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 2: we're not going to run out of oil. Shell gets invented,

691
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: Fracking gets invented. Paul Erlik, who's the most frequent guest

692
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 2: on Johnny Carson, wrote the population bomb. It seemed plausible,

693
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 2: we're going to outstrip our means of production. So throughout history,

694
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 2: Greta Tuneberg, throughout history, there have always been these doomers.

695
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 2: It's a long tradition of dumers. I'm not even talking

696
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 2: about you know, the people who said that the hell

697
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 2: Bop comet was going to so.

698
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: I guess Jeffrey Hinton would be the AI doomer in

699
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: this case, right, isn't he the inventor who says be weary?

700
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 2: Right, there's a twenty percent chance. But there are forever

701
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,919
Speaker 2: hint in there is one hundred people. Many of them

702
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: have their fortunes tied to AI. But I'll tell you

703
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 2: something else I learned from Andy series, the Last Invention.

704
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: Many of the people working in the companies are not doomers,

705
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 2: but they're really worried, and they say to themselves. Maybe

706
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 2: they don't say I'm a genius, they're geniuses. They're good

707
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 2: at this, and they're involved in the work with the

708
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 2: knowledge that if it goes wrong, it could go very,

709
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 2: very wrong in a way that goes way beyond replacing

710
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 2: menial labor and not having some substitute for that. It

711
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 2: could I'm not saying death of humanity, but.

712
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:31,399
Speaker 1: Maybe they are.

713
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 2: So. There are a lot of people within the industry

714
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: who don't want the industry just to go off the rails.

715
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: I don't know.

716
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 2: Maybe you can make an analogy. I don't know the

717
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 2: people who work in bioweapons research. I would assume a

718
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 2: lot of them think the same thing, and every once

719
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: in a while bad stuff happens there too.

720
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 1: There's one phenomenon that I'm fascinated by that is taking

721
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: place sort of simultaneously as we're having this sort of

722
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: race towards AI, and that is it is the one

723
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: issue that unites left and right, which is should we

724
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 1: get this technology out of the schools.

725
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:07,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

726
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: I had a woman on from an organization that she

727
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: founded called Mama Mothers Against Media Addiction, And it's not

728
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 1: just about you know, getting rid of phones in classrooms.

729
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: It's also about should we stop handing out iPads and

730
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:28,959
Speaker 1: laptops in schools? Right, like do we? You know? And boy,

731
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: I'm pretty torn on this because on the one hand,

732
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,919
Speaker 1: I think we should evolve with technology. On the other hand,

733
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: I understand the concerns and fears, and there's no doubt

734
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: there's plenty of study on screen time and what that's done.

735
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 1: But does fear of screen time in the social media

736
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 1: aspect mean you should toss away all technology you know,

737
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 1: in the classroom. And that's where that's where where I

738
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 1: get concerned. But what I find fascinating is that we

739
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 1: have a collective fear of what our kids, of how

740
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 1: our kids learn, and we're actually it seems like it's

741
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 1: the one place where we think we can try and

742
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: do something about it where there's almost like the least

743
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: amount of political combat over too.

744
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I would remember remember when the big issue

745
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 2: was the digital divide, the fear that not enough people

746
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 2: would have technology.

747
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: And now we're going the other way. We're like, no, no, no,

748
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 1: we don't want it in the classroom. It's terrible.

749
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 2: So where I come down is just because there is

750
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 2: junk food doesn't mean there shouldn't be culinary schools just.

751
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: Because there are.

752
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 2: Just because there is pornography doesn't mean we shouldn't teach

753
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 2: art or figure drawing in school, or even new drawing

754
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 2: on the college level. So I definitely think that this

755
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 2: is where the world is today. You have to There's

756
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: always been panics about technology. I don't know if this

757
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 2: is a panic. There are legitimate concerns, right the Corruption

758
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 2: of the Innocent was congressional hearings about comic books. I

759
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 2: do think that.

760
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 1: Video games or Tipper Gore in the music industry, I'm

761
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,439
Speaker 1: going have to remember when Twisted Sister with something that

762
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: our parents thought was warping the minds of people like myself.

763
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: Sure, Dee Snyder testifying on Capitol Hill in his Twisted

764
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 2: Sister Regelia did not wear a suit. Yeah. I also

765
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: remember Blackie Lawless from a group called Wasp, and I

766
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: can't even quote on a podcast what his big songs were.

767
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 2: But yes, so this is a perennial. These are the

768
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 2: tools that we use. I think a flat out band

769
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 2: would not serve our children well, especially as we compete

770
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,320
Speaker 2: against China in Singapore. But you know, we saw another

771
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: version of this where the answer is never just take

772
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 2: off the guardrails and trust in technology. With the legalization

773
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: of sports gambling, it has been a disaster.

774
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

775
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

776
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

777
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

778
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

779
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

780
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

781
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

782
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

783
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,839
Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

784
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

785
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

786
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

787
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, You need somebody

788
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out for Thepeople dot Com,

789
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: Slash podcast or Dow Pound Law Pound five to two

790
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: nine law on your cell phone. And remember all law

791
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 1: firms are not the same. So check out Morgan and Morgan.

792
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. You went to

793
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 1: the place I wanted to go because I want to

794
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 1: go to prediction markets here And what's CNN and call

795
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: she are doing? Which I think is I say this.

796
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 1: I love gambling, Mike, I love football gambling. I have

797
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,959
Speaker 1: also my own biases about what you should be allowed

798
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 1: to gamble on and what you're not allowed to gamble on.

799
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: For instance, I don't gamble on player props. You know

800
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: why because I don't feel like it's an honest market

801
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, you're relying on

802
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 1: one person versus a team sport. Like I don't like

803
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 1: to bet on individual sports. I don't bet on tennis.

804
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 1: I don't bet on golf because again, one person. You know,

805
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 1: it's it is known that tennis players just take an acceptance,

806
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 1: you know, take an appearance fee and bail. Right, That

807
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 1: is just sort of how it works. And it's like

808
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 1: it's like betting on the NBA what players are sitting out.

809
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: You know that's now, you know, I enjoy betting on

810
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: a team sport when I know there's maximum effort, and

811
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: I know that it's really going to be about somewhat

812
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 1: of a game of chance, but also a game of strategy. Yeah,

813
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 1: but you're right, keep going. It's interesting fact burn you out.

814
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 2: I mean, look at the NBA gambling scandal, Look at

815
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 2: the baseball gambling scandal.

816
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 1: Where why is this offered? Why are you allowed to

817
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: bet on the first pitch?

818
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Emmanuel class A can throw the ball directly

819
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 2: into the dirt and think he's going to get away

820
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 2: from something.

821
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: And think about this, right, these guys, some of them,

822
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: Let's say you come from a community that didn't have

823
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: a lot of money. You don't have enough to throw

824
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 1: money around to them, but you want to throw them

825
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: a bone, all right. You know, I see how these

826
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: individual players rationalize it. I'm just trying to help on

827
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 1: my pals. I want to help them make a couple

828
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:51,839
Speaker 1: of bucks. This is something I can do for them,

829
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 1: No harm, no foul, Right, that's I really think that's

830
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 1: the rationalization.

831
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 2: And Yeah, the idea was that the gigantic salaries played

832
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 2: to the hate to these players would protect or indemnify

833
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 2: them from ever being tempted. However, at the same time,

834
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: people were making these arguments and believing it. They weren't

835
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 2: just self motivated. We also know about the gigantic rates

836
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 2: of bankruptcy among professional athletes. They don't always take care

837
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 2: of their money so well. So you have guys like

838
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 2: Johntay Porter in the NBA who apparently owed a lot

839
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 2: of money to a lot of people, and so all

840
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,320
Speaker 2: he has to do is claim an injury, take himself

841
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 2: out of a game, and then everyone who bet the unders,

842
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 2: which for the audience, I'm sure you know, it's if

843
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: you think he's going to get less than four rebounds

844
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 2: or less than three assists or whatever the statistic is,

845
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 2: if you fake an injury, you're definitely going to get

846
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: less than that. He has been thrown out of basketball.

847
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 2: Terry Rozier is another one who's on the hook. There's

848
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 2: the separate gambling scandal with this is so fascinating. The

849
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 2: mafia and some coaches and popa gigs that can be

850
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 2: read with essentially X ray vision.

851
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, bets now, I think that.

852
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 2: The form of let's just get rid of these silly

853
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 2: little prop bets that we're not making that much money

854
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 2: on that is that's the deminimus that they have to do.

855
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 2: The real problem with sports gambling or gambling on the

856
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 2: phones isn't even sports gambling or gambling on games where

857
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 2: a lot of millionaires have a stake. There are you

858
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 2: could still gamble on college games where even though kids

859
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 2: are paid the nil money, it's not that much. And

860
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: there are a lot of very very low level Division

861
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: one games that were clearly thrown a couple of years ago,

862
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 2: and some enforcement though not criminals, been brought against players

863
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 2: on I think Mississippi Valley State and some other schools.

864
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 2: The huge problem there's been a lot of good reporting

865
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: on this is the online casinos on phones, and this

866
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 2: is we maybe you and I focus on sports gambling.

867
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 2: This is just sad and should never been allowed. And

868
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 2: you have home Healthcare AIDS losing fifteen thousand dollars because

869
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 2: they're constantly betting slot machines. And if you look at

870
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 2: the amount of revenue that the states have taken in sports,

871
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 2: some of them didn't make good deals with the sports companies.

872
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: And by the way, a lot of these sites, maybe

873
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,399
Speaker 2: not Fan Duel and DraftKings, but a lot of these

874
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 2: other sites are not making anywhere near the money and

875
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 2: they thought they would on sports gambling, But if you

876
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 2: look at the casino gambling, it's just a roundabout means

877
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:32,359
Speaker 2: of addiction. Now on Calshi, we thought we were talking

878
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 2: about the prop bets. What about this prop bet? I

879
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 2: have my calshilp app open. I don't know if you

880
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 2: could see it. Who will be the first member of

881
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:42,839
Speaker 2: Trump's cabinet to leave?

882
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: Now?

883
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 2: My update is since that Vanity Fair piece came out

884
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 2: rocket Yeah.

885
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 1: But then you know, well, it's what's funny about the

886
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: prediction markets. It's like, look, I am, I'm trying to

887
00:47:56,560 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: keep an open mind about the prediction markets. We used

888
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: to call the prediction markets the stock market, but I'll

889
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: set that aside here a minute. Like I would argue

890
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 1: that that kind of served as the prediction markets, at

891
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: least when it came to nonsports events, right, certain stocks

892
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 1: went up or down based on, oh, the economy. Economic

893
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:19,280
Speaker 1: numbers are based on oh like remember when when ozempic

894
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: first took off, suddenly didn't freedom lays stock collapse or

895
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: something like, you know, oh, no, nobody's gonna nobody's gonna

896
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 1: eat snacks anymore. Snacking is dead, you know, or good

897
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 1: luck with edmands, Like that's a brand that might disappear

898
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 1: with with everybody taking ozempic. But it's the it's it's

899
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 1: the fact that CNN signed to deal with Calci like

900
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 1: incorporating Like is it what does this fact tell you

901
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 1: about Susie wilds Now being at the top of this

902
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: prediction market. Is it just a whole bunch of people

903
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 1: wanting to react to something that happened in the news

904
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 1: or is there somebody with insider information right now during

905
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: I will confess. So I made my first calshy trade

906
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 1: the morning of the college football playoff show. I'm a

907
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: University of Miami guy, and I was curious to see

908
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,280
Speaker 1: if things were going to leak the way the Pope

909
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: not the Pope, the Nobel Peace Prize leaked, and all

910
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 1: of a sudden, the prediction market spiked for Machado, and

911
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 1: You're like, oh, what's that about. Somebody must know something

912
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 1: right here was somebody that didn't have any other reason

913
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 1: to spike it. So I was curious to see, and

914
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 1: I was watching and I literally did it to see

915
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 1: if it would leak. Now it turned out it didn't leak.

916
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 1: Miami's number was fluctuating up and down somewhere between it

917
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: got as low as six, got as high as thirty eight,

918
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: But it was in the range of what was what

919
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: would you would expect if people didn't know the outcome, okay,

920
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: where they were trying to reject, rather than there wasn't anything.

921
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 1: But that's why I did it. I didn't do it

922
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 1: because I thought. I did it because I thought somebody

923
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 1: might know the answer. I didn't do it because I

924
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 1: thought crowdsourcing was gonna tell me what the answer was, right.

925
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 2: I do it because I like to bet eleven dollars

926
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 2: on the Jets while they're losing, to give myself some

927
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 2: enjoyment of the game. My average bet is like six dollars,

928
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,319
Speaker 2: so you don't have to worry about me. But the

929
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 2: same thing happened with the Time Person of the Year

930
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 2: whenever it's a non random outcome, and who will make

931
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 2: the college football playoffs. But that's a well guarded outcome,

932
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 2: the sort of outcome that someone would get fired if

933
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: at least they leaked it. I don't know if Vanity

934
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 2: Fair or Time magazine, but if you were a copy

935
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 2: editor at Vanity Fair and you knew about this market,

936
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:56,800
Speaker 2: you knew this Susie Wild's piece, don't.

937
00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: You buy Susie wildstock yesterday, right, yeah, and you sell

938
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 1: it now yeah right right, That's what you're doing, is

939
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 1: you're that's insider trading. And that's where ultimately, I don't

940
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: know how you can guarantee, you know, other than are

941
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: we going to have apply insider trading rules to copy

942
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 1: editors now in the same way we apply insider trading

943
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 1: rules to people that work it?

944
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 2: Say it, Jore thing. Can you articulate a difference?

945
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: I can't.

946
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 2: That's my point. The market with material information that the.

947
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 1: Do we have enough to do? We have enough regulators

948
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 1: to keep track of all this?

949
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. To me, the big concern this is a concern.

950
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 2: You articulated a concern. The other big concern is when

951
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 2: you look at sports coverage and now that all the

952
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 2: sport although ESPN has gotten out of it, most of

953
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 2: the networks are in bed with this.

954
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 1: Or that they didn't get out of it. They just

955
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 1: read they just did their deal with DraftKings, right, just shake.

956
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 2: Got out of it. In terms of it's not ESPN bets.

957
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 1: Sure, but they're doing it's no, I mean, you know,

958
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: they're just they just took a bigger check from DraftKings, right.

959
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 2: So now it really affects the coverage. And maybe you

960
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 2: can make the case that CNN could just take some

961
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 2: hail Mary's to borrow football term and it's not like

962
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 2: their coverage will affect ratings on the downside that much.

963
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 2: But it does affect the coverage, and it gears the

964
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 2: coverage towards the relatively few people who really care about

965
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 2: this stuff.

966
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 1: And even if you do.

967
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 2: Care about sports gambling in general, do you really care

968
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 2: in the start of the fourth quarter when they flash

969
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 2: what Van Duel says the Nickson my goods of winning.

970
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 1: It just really find that's so annoying. Do you know

971
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: why I watched? In fact, this gets it to my

972
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: frustration with the college football playoff, with the idea of

973
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 1: the subjective committee, where you like, hey, give me what

974
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 1: the statistically best teams are. When I'm like, I've said

975
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: this to various people who are sports fans, and I'll

976
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 1: ask you the question, Mike, do you watch sports to

977
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 1: see the most probable outcomes happen? Or do you watch

978
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 1: it enjoy sports because every once in a while there's

979
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:08,080
Speaker 1: an improbable result and you're like, wow, my son will

980
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 1: tell you why is he a college football fan? Because

981
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 1: the first college football memory he has was from watching

982
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: my wife and I go crazy over the kick six

983
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,839
Speaker 1: the Auburn Alabama game where he kicks a field where

984
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 1: he attempts the field goal and the guy runs it

985
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: back to win the You're like, oh my god, I've

986
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 1: never seen a game end like that. That's unbelievable. Alabama

987
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 1: was the better football team. Alabama always is the better

988
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 1: football team. Nine times out of ten, Alabama wins that game.

989
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:36,879
Speaker 1: So why do we bother playing the games? Because we're

990
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 1: kind of we're kind of curious to see if the

991
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 1: improbable happens, which is why when they do stupid things

992
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 1: like lee Florida State out a couple of years ago.

993
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: You're like, you're actually taking away the opportunity for a

994
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 1: sports movie, which, Oh, by the way, what do we love.

995
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,720
Speaker 1: We love a good sports movie. We love a grandpa

996
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,719
Speaker 1: that takes a snap in an NFL game. That's pretty interesting.

997
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 1: I kind of want to see that, right, Like.

998
00:53:58,920 --> 00:53:59,919
Speaker 2: The kicks a field goal.

999
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 1: Oh hey, I know that movie. I know exactly the

1000
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 1: one you're talking about. The Doctor, the God. I forget

1001
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 1: was what the name of it was, The Donkey.

1002
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:13,279
Speaker 2: It was not Gladys The kicking mule. It was, yeah,

1003
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 2: it'll hit me someone.

1004
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: That's a don Knots, Right, wasn't like coach don Knots.

1005
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he made he made a sound like whoosh

1006
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 2: every time he kicked. Oh, what do you think of

1007
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 2: James Madison and Tulane both in the college football playoffs,

1008
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 2: but not Notre Dame.

1009
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 1: So I'm of two minds, Right, I want the center

1010
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 1: and I know this is what and I this is

1011
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 1: where I wish college football had a commissioner because I

1012
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 1: think the conferences, nobody that leads a conference or an

1013
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 1: athletic director has the best interest of the entire game

1014
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 1: in mind. Right, there is no what's best for college football.

1015
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 1: It is great for college football. If there's an opportunity

1016
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 1: for a Cinderella, we want to. You know, it was

1017
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 1: great to see George Mason make that run to the

1018
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 1: final four, right, that was really cool. It was It's

1019
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 1: awesome when Butler got to the end the final of

1020
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:06,400
Speaker 1: the NCAA tournament, Right, that was something we were curious about.

1021
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 1: That was great. And yet we also want to see

1022
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 1: Kentucky in North Carolina or Kentucky in Duke because that's

1023
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: awesome too. So I get the need for that. I

1024
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: do think people don't realize and the coverage of college

1025
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:22,440
Speaker 1: football is terrible. The reason they had to do that

1026
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:26,439
Speaker 1: is they were preventing a lawsuit from the other conferences

1027
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: from basically, you know, they can't legally keep these other

1028
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: They had to give a pathway to prevent a lawsuit

1029
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 1: from all these group of five conferences. Who would have

1030
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 1: said that the big four schools in ESPN were essentially

1031
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 1: violating you know, Violet, we're a monopoly, right, violating antitrust.

1032
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:48,879
Speaker 1: So that's why it exists. And they had to put

1033
00:55:48,880 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 1: the rules in, wrote the rules. The way they did

1034
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,319
Speaker 1: it that was a lawyer telling them, well, you need

1035
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: to at least give the group of five conferences a

1036
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 1: chance that hey, if your champion is in the top

1037
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,839
Speaker 1: five of all champions, right then then you can say no, no, no,

1038
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: we're not blocking them out of it. I'd personally like

1039
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 1: to see a group of five playoff, like you take

1040
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:17,000
Speaker 1: the four top group of five conferences and they play,

1041
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 1: you know, they play a little mini tournament and the

1042
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 1: winner gets to come in. It's actually how the n

1043
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 1: i T and the NCAA used to work way back

1044
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 1: in the fifties. If there's one school that has that

1045
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:31,439
Speaker 1: has won both the n T and the NC Double

1046
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 1: A in the same year. Do you know the name?

1047
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:34,399
Speaker 2: City College of New York.

1048
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 1: I knew you would know. It's so interesting. You're one

1049
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 1: of the few guests I could have that would be like,

1050
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 1: he knows more minutia than I do, and it's you.

1051
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:43,320
Speaker 2: Do you know their nickname?

1052
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: The Cooney nickname? I do not think.

1053
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 2: I think they were the Beavers, but I'm going to

1054
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 2: check that.

1055
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:49,919
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1056
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 2: So here's where I disagree. Uh, your analysis was right.

1057
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 2: You set the stage, you laid the predictor correctly. I

1058
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 2: don't think you want both James Madison into Lane in.

1059
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 1: The way we only want one, right.

1060
00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, my son's a freshman at Tulane. I was never

1061
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,439
Speaker 2: a college football fan. I got so into them this year.

1062
00:57:06,640 --> 00:57:07,800
Speaker 2: He stormed the field.

1063
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 1: It's fun. Oh, my son's a freshman at SMU. I

1064
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 1: was at the goddamn Miami SMU game where he did

1065
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 1: what storm the field? So yes, my son stormed the

1066
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 1: field on a Miami game. I do.

1067
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 2: I do think the analogy between you want George Mason

1068
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 2: or Butler to make it those schools were legitimately better

1069
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 2: and not only does the record show they could hold

1070
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 2: their own against the power schools.

1071
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 1: You know, in the final.

1072
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 2: Where I was there, I was covering a fri endpr

1073
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 2: The best player in that Duke Butler game was Gordon

1074
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 2: Hayward of Butler. So that is not the case with

1075
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 2: Tulane and James Madison those schools.

1076
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1077
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:45,440
Speaker 2: Maybe Tulane is a chance.

1078
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: Tulane is I would look at least Tulane played a

1079
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 1: couple of power for schools, right, They played Duke and

1080
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:56,439
Speaker 1: they played Old miss right, like you know there. Put

1081
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 1: it this way, when the ACC breaks up, they're going

1082
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: to become a member of whatever's left of the Accah,

1083
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 1: They're the next, They're the next, They're sort of next

1084
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:08,800
Speaker 1: in line, right, Tulane and Memphis are probably in ut

1085
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 1: San Antonio are probably the next three schools to get

1086
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 1: the call up into the Power for if there's room

1087
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 1: for more road runners. So yes, well, oh oh absolutely,

1088
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 1: I don't think people between UTSA and us F Bright

1089
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 1: South Florida being the other one. These are schools that

1090
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 1: basically have been created by the population booms of those

1091
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 1: two states over the last thirty years. Where these are

1092
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 1: commuter schools, and now they're just substantials in state universities.

1093
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 2: U TSA b TU lane quite handily this year. So

1094
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 2: I can't confirm. The City College of New York's are

1095
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:50,240
Speaker 2: the Beavers. Their mascot is Benny the Beaver. And I

1096
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 2: will also give you this. Do you know what other

1097
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 2: prominent though division free school is nicknamed the Beavers? Division

1098
00:58:57,040 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 2: one would be Oregon State State? Right which Division II?

1099
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 2: And I'll give you a hint. The reason there the

1100
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 2: beavers is that the beaver is nature's engineer.

1101
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 1: The beaver is nature's engineer. Interesting, is it? M I

1102
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 1: T does excellent work?

1103
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 2: Correct?

1104
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 1: Okay? M I T?

1105
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 2: Beavers?

1106
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 1: That is that feels like uh, that feels like an idea.

1107
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 1: They came up with, Hey, what's a good reason for

1108
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:29,120
Speaker 1: us to have beavers? That isn't what we what everybody's

1109
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 1: going to assume? What could we what could we actually?

1110
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 1: What can we say that would be plausibly uh an explanation?

1111
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 1: You know?

1112
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 2: I mean? And when they when they face the Presbyterian

1113
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 2: blue hose.

1114
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 1: H all right, let me so prediction markets are you

1115
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 1: do you think they will be legal? Or do you

1116
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 1: think we will when we have a sober up moment

1117
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: on sports gambling that the prediction markets are in trouble too.

1118
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 2: They shouldn't be legal. I don't mean normatively, I mean

1119
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 2: according to the law there their reason for not being

1120
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 2: the reason for being legal is something other than entertainment.

1121
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 2: Is that they try to make the case that they're

1122
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 2: like more like a commodities market. There is no VIG,

1123
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:22,800
Speaker 2: so that's something in their favor. But I don't know

1124
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 2: who's playing, what commodity or what business is benefiting from

1125
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:29,360
Speaker 2: the existence of a prediction market.

1126
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 1: Maybe you could.

1127
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 2: Say, if you're the if you're the sports bar in

1128
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 2: Kansas City, and you bet against the Chiefs to make

1129
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 2: the playoffs because you know it's going to impact business

1130
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 2: in January, and that's a hedge. But that is so

1131
01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 2: far fetched. So as I look at the law, it

1132
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: doesn't seem that they have a better case to not

1133
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 2: be regulated than any traditional sports books. And it's not

1134
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 2: the VIG isn't the big or the cut and percent

1135
01:00:58,320 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 2: isn't the big reason there.

1136
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 1: You know, let me get you out of here. On

1137
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 1: the following it's sort of a historical fact that I'm

1138
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 1: curious if you'll turn into a prediction Ever since the

1139
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 1: end of the pandemic. I've had a different view of

1140
01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 1: prohibition because you now realize how did prohibitions start? You know,

1141
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: it always had a small group of people arguing to

1142
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 1: ban alcohol. Right. You watch the TV show Gilded Age, Right,

1143
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:30,840
Speaker 1: Cynthia Nixon's character is actually holding meetings, right, the Temperance

1144
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 1: movement and all that stuff. But we don't actually do

1145
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 1: it until just after the nineteen seventeen and eighteen pandemic,

1146
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 1: which tells me that like pandemics sort of make us

1147
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 1: do crazy things, right, we sort of we go to

1148
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:50,000
Speaker 1: our extremes, we do certain things, and within a decade

1149
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 1: we decide, wholl this was a bad idea. Whether it's gambling,

1150
01:01:56,360 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 1: whether it's the legalization of marijuana. What's something that we've

1151
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 1: been letting happen right that we'll we'll look back on

1152
01:02:05,880 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 1: and say in twenty five years and say, yeah, we

1153
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 1: ended that. After a decade experiment, we realized that's not

1154
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 1: good for society. We sobered up. Is it sports gambling,

1155
01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 1: is it marijuana? Is it something else? Yeah?

1156
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 2: I think the casino gambling, there's just so little justification

1157
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 2: for it, and it's creating more victims that the states

1158
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:30,840
Speaker 2: have to take care of so sports gambling. I don't know.

1159
01:02:30,880 --> 01:02:32,919
Speaker 2: I'm not willing to make that prediction, but I think

1160
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 2: being able to since only a few states allow it,

1161
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 2: you know, bang slot machines on your phones, I do

1162
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 2: think that will end. I think another one is I

1163
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 2: think there's going to be massive regulation of the NIL

1164
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 2: business because it's not a business and it doesn't help

1165
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 2: anyone everyone. You know, there are obviously a few people

1166
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:56,439
Speaker 2: taking advantage of it, But the why do big time

1167
01:02:56,440 --> 01:03:00,480
Speaker 2: college sports exist. It's the fan experience, right, It's not

1168
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 2: the student athletes. So schools can make money because the

1169
01:03:05,720 --> 01:03:08,560
Speaker 2: fans enjoy watching them, and I think it is getting

1170
01:03:08,600 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 2: in the way of the fan experience to some extent,

1171
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 2: so there's going to be major reformation there. I would

1172
01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 2: also say that there's no reason just to pay kids

1173
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 2: for NIL with their ability to go on Instagram, get

1174
01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of followers and just sell their advertising.

1175
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 1: Maybe.

1176
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:33,200
Speaker 2: I've also always thought that puppy mills should be illegal,

1177
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:36,880
Speaker 2: but that's not in the that didn't happen recently. I

1178
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 2: see that trend maybe coming. But you know, prohibition was

1179
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 2: a big progressive movement, wasn't it. It was said to

1180
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:49,840
Speaker 2: be a leap forward, and all the suffragists and all

1181
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 2: the people who were associated with the progressive causes were

1182
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 2: most in favor of it, and it turned out to

1183
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 2: be a mistake. So in that way, you know, marijuana

1184
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 2: legalization or whatever the extremely flawed rollout was, it reminds

1185
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:07,959
Speaker 2: me of it. So I don't see us going back.

1186
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I see, I don't think so on marijuana

1187
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 1: because we're not having there isn't you know it is

1188
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 1: It turns out that you know, it isn't any more

1189
01:04:17,080 --> 01:04:20,880
Speaker 1: or less addictive than alcohol, And it might be arguments

1190
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 1: it's slightly less addictive in alcohol. What's not been true?

1191
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 1: And you've di you know, we don't know yet that

1192
01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 1: it really has. What benefits there are there may be.

1193
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 2: Seems like almost none.

1194
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 1: It seems like there may be killing benefits. I could

1195
01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:37,160
Speaker 1: see that, you.

1196
01:04:37,120 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 2: Know, payment half people like maybe your rope is higher.

1197
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 1: Well, I will say this, I've had two people in

1198
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 1: my life with MS and they swear by it. They

1199
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:48,959
Speaker 1: swear by.

1200
01:04:48,880 --> 01:04:51,120
Speaker 2: It, but is there nothing else that they would.

1201
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 1: There's nothing else that allows them to Everything else makes

1202
01:04:56,280 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 1: them too loopy or makes them too sick, right like,

1203
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 1: for whatever a reason, weed is the right amount of

1204
01:05:01,840 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: it actually helps them with an appetite right what they need,

1205
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 1: and at the same time still doesn't totally fog up

1206
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:12,600
Speaker 1: their brain. It's this fine line, right. I know, if

1207
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 1: you take too much weed, it can fog up your brain.

1208
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:17,080
Speaker 1: But some of the the you know, the painkillers you're

1209
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:18,880
Speaker 1: getting from the from the pharmaceutical company.

1210
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 2: I think the argument to the medical marijuana argument wasn't

1211
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,640
Speaker 2: that the people with glaucoma or ms were lying. It

1212
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 2: was that everyone claimed to have back pain in order

1213
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 2: to qualify for medical arijuana. And so eventually the states

1214
01:05:31,720 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 2: just said, let's just legalize marijuana, but they didn't do

1215
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:36,680
Speaker 2: it in the right way, and the rollout was done

1216
01:05:36,760 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 2: so inexactly. And this is where execution comes into effect.

1217
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 2: And this is where our state capacity. You know what

1218
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:47,960
Speaker 2: the abundance agenda and what Dunkleman wrote about about why

1219
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:51,520
Speaker 2: nothing works, like for all our arguments about this should

1220
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:53,920
Speaker 2: or shouldn't be done, and what are the normative changes,

1221
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 2: whatever you decide, doing it well is as important as

1222
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 2: just doing it. So there's a way to legalize marijuana

1223
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 2: where it works well. And I think there's probably a

1224
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 2: way to get some version of the prediction markets work

1225
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:13,600
Speaker 2: that help more people than they hurt. I just I'm

1226
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 2: skeptical that our government is capable of that way in

1227
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five.

1228
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 1: Well, here's the problem, right, I've always said, you know,

1229
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:26,560
Speaker 1: I think being libertarian is in the DNA of Americans. Right,

1230
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:28,200
Speaker 1: It's sort of like no, no, no, no. The whole point

1231
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:30,760
Speaker 1: of this country was no, no, no. We want to we

1232
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:33,480
Speaker 1: want to decide for ourselves what religion we do, and

1233
01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:35,240
Speaker 1: we want to decide for ourselves and all this stuff.

1234
01:06:36,440 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 1: But unfortunately, when we make it, we're making a libertarian.

1235
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 1: We're sort of following through a libertarian idea about hey,

1236
01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 1: you smoke what you want to smoke, or you take

1237
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:49,640
Speaker 1: what you want to take, but you do need a

1238
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:54,640
Speaker 1: highly regulated delivery system, right in order to fulfill this

1239
01:06:54,800 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 1: libertarian demand, right, And that's I think the problem is

1240
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 1: that that's that's probably they just run into each other. Right.

1241
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,120
Speaker 1: Our DNA is like a live and let live to

1242
01:07:07,240 --> 01:07:10,640
Speaker 1: a point, but you kind of need a highly structured

1243
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:14,240
Speaker 1: system in order to deliver this property, or at least

1244
01:07:14,240 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 1: somewhat structured.

1245
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:19,200
Speaker 2: And the libertarians I know would not say they're against

1246
01:07:19,240 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 2: liquor licenses. They're just against liquor licenses that are given

1247
01:07:25,120 --> 01:07:29,400
Speaker 2: via corruption or suppressed or or given maybe even to anyone.

1248
01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 2: You know. Libertarians are always will also admit that their

1249
01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 2: arguments well, I don't know, they'll always admit it, but

1250
01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 2: the honest ones will say, our arguments do tend to

1251
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 2: fall apart when it comes to kids.

1252
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 1: Mike, I always enjoyed my conversations with you. Are you

1253
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:49,400
Speaker 1: still you still read hard copies of things? Or are

1254
01:07:49,400 --> 01:07:50,080
Speaker 1: you all digital?

1255
01:07:50,800 --> 01:07:54,720
Speaker 2: I mean I could reach for like my it's all

1256
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 2: it's all New Yorker in print and New York Times

1257
01:07:58,000 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 2: in print, and yes, yes.

1258
01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:04,320
Speaker 1: Because I miss remembering where I read something, and when

1259
01:08:04,360 --> 01:08:06,400
Speaker 1: I read everything on digital, when I read everything on

1260
01:08:06,440 --> 01:08:11,040
Speaker 1: the same machinery, it doesn't matter whether I'm reading The Atlantic,

1261
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:16,719
Speaker 1: the Times, the Post, the gristlit it doesn't matter, right,

1262
01:08:16,920 --> 01:08:19,840
Speaker 1: it all looks the same. And I missed being able

1263
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 1: to differentiate visually where I read stuff. So yeah, I

1264
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:23,599
Speaker 1: was curious if we still read.

1265
01:08:23,840 --> 01:08:26,600
Speaker 2: I remember where on the page I read things, and

1266
01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:29,240
Speaker 2: that's really important. And it keeps some of these books

1267
01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:31,080
Speaker 2: behind me because I have to get to them and

1268
01:08:31,120 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 2: I will be doing the interviews, but a lot of

1269
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:35,040
Speaker 2: them are I don't know if they're cherished. They just

1270
01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:37,439
Speaker 2: gave me a lot of information. And even though I

1271
01:08:37,479 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 2: say abstractly I suppose I could try to find it

1272
01:08:40,960 --> 01:08:44,000
Speaker 2: on the kindle version, I can't. I definitely could find

1273
01:08:44,040 --> 01:08:45,240
Speaker 2: it in the physical version.

1274
01:08:45,760 --> 01:08:51,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I wonder if print has been more resilient

1275
01:08:52,080 --> 01:08:57,240
Speaker 1: than I think many book publishers thought. And I'm wondering

1276
01:08:57,320 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 1: if there's something there on local news that maybe that

1277
01:09:01,080 --> 01:09:04,120
Speaker 1: maybe there's a way to bring print back selectively, even

1278
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:04,920
Speaker 1: in the local level.

1279
01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:09,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I know Tablet has a print play that's

1280
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:13,280
Speaker 2: going pretty well for them. It's it's maybe like vinyl

1281
01:09:13,560 --> 01:09:16,400
Speaker 2: with among the music officionados.

1282
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:19,320
Speaker 1: Well we're starting to see, but I read something where.

1283
01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:21,599
Speaker 2: It's pretty it does pretty well for the record companies

1284
01:09:21,720 --> 01:09:22,840
Speaker 2: they're vinyl divisions.

1285
01:09:22,960 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 1: Well, especially when you're charging forty dollars an album. I

1286
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:29,519
Speaker 1: don't know if you bespoke, you bought one of these

1287
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:34,040
Speaker 1: newly new this new way that hey, get a Taylor

1288
01:09:34,160 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 1: Swift album for your daughter on vinyl, you know, and

1289
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:41,120
Speaker 1: it's like fifty bucks even at Target. Anyway, Mike and

1290
01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:44,120
Speaker 1: Joe the holidays, you too, Do you travel or do

1291
01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:45,240
Speaker 1: you host?

1292
01:09:45,560 --> 01:09:48,400
Speaker 2: I do a little of each I think I usually

1293
01:09:48,479 --> 01:09:52,680
Speaker 2: take my vacation two weeks later to beat all the crowds.

1294
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:56,120
Speaker 2: But as always, as always, Chuck, thank you for having

1295
01:09:56,200 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 2: me and Go Beavers.

1296
01:09:58,439 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 1: Go be If you learned anything it's the fact that

1297
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:04,639
Speaker 1: the only person that knows more minutia, particularly sports venusia,

1298
01:10:04,720 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 1: than myself, it's you, mister Presca Cooney lifts Go Beavers.

1299
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:09,040
Speaker 1: Thanks brother,