WEBVTT - Iran Escalates Attacks on Shipping; Oil Prices Keep Rising

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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<v Speaker 2>are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 1>Karen, it is day thirteen of the war with Iran

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<v Speaker 1>and the impact on the global energy supply is spreading.

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<v Speaker 1>We get the very latest from Bloomberg's Jumana Barsechi in Dubai.

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<v Speaker 3>What we're seeing is a tax taking place on the

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<v Speaker 3>northern part of the Persian Gulf. So two tankers off

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<v Speaker 3>the coast of Iraq, so this is way north of

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<v Speaker 3>the Strait of Hormos, were set on fire this morning

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<v Speaker 3>I reportedly ablaze and then further south of the Strait

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<v Speaker 3>of Hormoes. Yesterday evening, the key port of Salala in

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<v Speaker 3>Oman was also strugg that's a fuel depot and earlier,

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<v Speaker 3>out of an abundance of caution, vessels were asked to

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<v Speaker 3>evacuate the area. Another key export terminal in the region.

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<v Speaker 3>Oman exports about one million barrels a day of oil

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<v Speaker 3>through that port and it is on the Gulf of Aman.

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<v Speaker 3>It is not on the Strait of Homers.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Jumani Burssecci reports this follows attacks

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<v Speaker 1>on other ships in the Gulf. The UK says a

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<v Speaker 1>projectile struck a vessel today in the United Arab Emirates,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Thai Navy says a cargo ship was attacked

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday as it tried to exit the Strait of Hormoes.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Nathan, the world is responding to these attacks with

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<v Speaker 2>an unprecedented moved to shore up the energy market. The

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<v Speaker 2>International Energy Agency says its members will release four hundred

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<v Speaker 2>million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. That's more

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<v Speaker 2>than twice the previous record after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>One hundred and seventy two million of those barrels will

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<v Speaker 2>come from the US, and President Trump says that should

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<v Speaker 2>ease price pressures.

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<v Speaker 4>Oil prices are already coming back down, and it's going

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<v Speaker 4>to come down. But we're not leaving until that job

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<v Speaker 4>is finished, and it's going to be very fast.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump spoke at a rally in Kentucky last night,

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<v Speaker 2>but Energy Secretary Chris Wright says getting all the oil

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<v Speaker 2>out could take a while.

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<v Speaker 5>The release is certainly out of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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<v Speaker 5>They'll go over about four months. But this conflict, I

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<v Speaker 5>don't think goes that long. I think we will have

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<v Speaker 5>the Straits of Horror Moves open well before then.

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<v Speaker 2>Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on Fox News. Sources tell

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg President Trump is also preparing to use Cold Word

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<v Speaker 2>era powers to revive oil production off the southern California coast.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Economics says a one month closure of the Strait

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<v Speaker 2>of Horror Moos could send oil prices near one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and five dollars a barrel. And looking at prices again

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<v Speaker 2>right now, NIMEX screwed oil is a more than six percent.

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<v Speaker 2>It's in ninety two dollars fifty three cents a barrel.

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<v Speaker 2>Brent is at ninety seven dollars ninety nine cents, and.

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<v Speaker 6>There's more fallout from the war.

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<v Speaker 1>Care and the International Air Energy Agency says the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East conflict will slash global oil supplies by eight million

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<v Speaker 1>barrels a day this month, or about seven and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent. The IEA says the Midi store is the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.

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<v Speaker 2>Well Nathan Republican Senator Ran Paul is warning that the

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<v Speaker 2>ongoing war in Iran could hurt his party in the

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<v Speaker 2>midterm elections. Speaking on a Bloomberg's Balance of Power with

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Matthew, the Kentucky Republican also said the war is

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<v Speaker 2>putting the US more in debt right now.

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<v Speaker 7>Our military, we spend more on our military than the

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<v Speaker 7>next ten countries combined. So for people to argue we're

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<v Speaker 7>not spending enough, we're spending more than the next ten

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<v Speaker 7>countries combined. We spend plenty on our military, at.

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<v Speaker 6>Least to be spent wisely.

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<v Speaker 7>But they'll spend an extraordinary amount on two wars, two

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<v Speaker 7>wars in one month. I mean, for goodnessakes, they're talking

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<v Speaker 7>about another war with Cuba as we speak right So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 7>they cost money. The costs laws most importantly, but they

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<v Speaker 7>also cost money. And I'm just not for wasn't for

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<v Speaker 7>the war in Venezuela, I'm not for the war in Iran,

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<v Speaker 7>and I'm certainly not for a war with Cuba.

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<v Speaker 2>And catch our full interview with Kentucky Senator Ran Paul

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<v Speaker 2>on our new video experience on the Bloomberg Business app Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>Several top banks telling their staff to stay away from

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<v Speaker 1>offices in Dubai and other locations in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Tiwa Autobio has the latest from London.

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<v Speaker 8>Several major Wall Street banks have already been allowing their

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<v Speaker 8>employees to work from home since the start of the

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<v Speaker 8>Iran war. Now some big names are instructing colleagues to

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<v Speaker 8>exit their offices in the region. Bloomberg understands that the

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<v Speaker 8>likes of Goldman Sachs and City Group have told their

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<v Speaker 8>staff as to stay away from their Dubai offices, and

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<v Speaker 8>some lenders have also offered staff the option to temporarily

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<v Speaker 8>leave the country. The news comes as Iran continues to

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<v Speaker 8>strike targets in the Middle East. A representative for Goldman

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<v Speaker 8>Sachs decline to comment, while City Groups said in a

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<v Speaker 8>statement that all of its employees are accounted for and

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<v Speaker 8>safe in London. Tia Adubaya Bloomberg Radio, all.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Tewatt, thank you what we are continuing to see

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<v Speaker 2>the market reaction to the war. Global bonds have surrendered

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<v Speaker 2>their year to date gains. Elevated oil prices are stoking

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<v Speaker 2>fears that inflation will reignite, triggering a sell off across

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<v Speaker 2>fixed income markets. The Bloomberg the Global Aggregate Index is

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<v Speaker 2>now flat for twenty twenty six, It was up as

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<v Speaker 2>much as two point one percent this year, just before

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump launched the attack on a run.

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<v Speaker 1>And stock futures are falling this morning, Karen right Now,

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<v Speaker 1>s and P and Nasdaq futures are both down a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent down futures are lower by six tenths of

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<v Speaker 1>one percent. Sarah Hunt, chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Wood,

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<v Speaker 1>says this is a difficult time for investors longer term.

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<v Speaker 9>I think investing has always been you always bounce back

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<v Speaker 9>from problems. The question is how long does it take

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<v Speaker 9>you to bounce back? And right now, I think the

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<v Speaker 9>US equity markets, even though the headline indices are close

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<v Speaker 9>to all time highs, underneath you've seen a lot of

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<v Speaker 9>damage already to specific sectors. So there are definitely places

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<v Speaker 9>to look in the market for investing, But I think

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<v Speaker 9>you have to have a pretty strong hand at this

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<v Speaker 9>particular time because it is difficult to see that you're

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<v Speaker 9>going to get away from the volatility that we're seeing

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<v Speaker 9>right now, and investors don't love volatility now.

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<v Speaker 1>Pine Saxson Woods chief market strategist Sarah Hunt, and speaking

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<v Speaker 1>of volatility, the Vicks Wall Street so called fear gauge is.

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<v Speaker 6>Trading back near twenty five this morning, Well, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 2>The Trump administration is opening a new trade investigation into

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<v Speaker 2>manufacturing in foreign countries. Is an effort that comes after

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<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's previous use of tariffs.

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<v Speaker 2>Trade Representative Jamison Greer has announced his office will begin

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<v Speaker 2>a probe into more than a dozen major economies, including China,

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<v Speaker 2>the EU, India, and South Korea under Section three oh

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<v Speaker 2>one of the Trade Act. Bloomberg still Desis has more

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<v Speaker 2>on how the administration is attempting to rebuild its trade policies.

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<v Speaker 10>Those executive order tariffs that Trump anounced last year. Obviously

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<v Speaker 10>that was pretty high risk strategy for the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 10>To pursue something like this might go a long way

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<v Speaker 10>toward actually laying something down that can hold up going

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<v Speaker 10>into the future. Of course, these types of probes, I

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<v Speaker 10>will just caution do take in many cases months to

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<v Speaker 10>ultimately complete before you do see those tariffs, So it

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<v Speaker 10>might be a long ways out before we actually see

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<v Speaker 10>something take effect.

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<v Speaker 2>And Bloomberg stil das ads that the move is likely

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<v Speaker 2>to damage relations with the targeted countries and comes ahead

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<v Speaker 2>of a planned trip by the President to Beijing.

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<v Speaker 1>Now there's more parent fallout from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

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<v Speaker 1>Karen New York Giants co owners Steve Tish and his

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<v Speaker 1>two siblings are transferring their stakes in the team to

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<v Speaker 1>trusts for their children. The move comes after Tish recently

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<v Speaker 1>appeared in documents tied to the investigation into the convicted

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<v Speaker 1>sex offender. Steve Tish has not been accused of any crimes,

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<v Speaker 1>but he was mentioned hundreds of times in Epstein documents

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<v Speaker 1>released earlier this year. The transfer of this Steak has

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<v Speaker 1>to be approved by the NFL. It would shift ownership

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<v Speaker 1>of a franchise valued last year at ten point three

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>Nathan, we also have a programming note here. Markets may

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<v Speaker 2>close on a Friday, but the world does not, and

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<v Speaker 2>that's why we're bringing you a new live radio and

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<v Speaker 2>TV show. Bloomberg This Weekend is looking beyond the daily

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<v Speaker 2>headlines to the bigger themes driving politics, business and culture.

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<v Speaker 2>Joined David Gura, Christina Ruffini, and Lisa Heyo for smart

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<v Speaker 2>conversations and in depth interviews that help make sense of

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<v Speaker 2>the week that's been, and what's and what comes next. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg This Weekend Live Saturdays and Sundays from seven am

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<v Speaker 2>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, TV and the Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 2>Time now for look at some of the other stories

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<v Speaker 2>making news in New York and around the world. And

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<v Speaker 2>for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, Good morning.

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<v Speaker 11>Good morning, Karen. The struggle is getting heavy and harder

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<v Speaker 11>to manage for the hundreds of TSA workers who remain

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<v Speaker 11>on the job working without a paycheck as the partial

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<v Speaker 11>government shutdown drags on. A nonprofit group VEEP held a

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<v Speaker 11>food drive for the nearly five hundred workers at the

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<v Speaker 11>Minneapolis Saint Paul Airport. Union leader Neil Gosman was grateful

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<v Speaker 11>as he and his colleagues tried to soldier through their

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<v Speaker 11>third shutdown in just six months. He says they're being

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<v Speaker 11>used as pawns as Washington does nothing instead.

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<v Speaker 6>Of a paycheck.

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<v Speaker 11>I'm getting poor today.

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<v Speaker 6>That's great. I really appreciate deep doing this. This is

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<v Speaker 6>not a way to treat a federal employee. We're trying

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<v Speaker 6>to keep people safe.

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<v Speaker 11>Union leader Neil Gosman says many TSA agents need help

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<v Speaker 11>with gas. Two congressional Democrats are seeking an investigation into

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<v Speaker 11>US Attorney General Pam Bondi's brother, California Senator Adam Schiff

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<v Speaker 11>and Congressman Dave min allege a quote troubling pattern of

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<v Speaker 11>favorable outcomes in cases involving the Justice Department and clients

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<v Speaker 11>who hired defense attorney Brad Bondy. It's not even officially

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<v Speaker 11>spring yet, but health experts say seasonal allergies are already

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<v Speaker 11>starting to impact many Americans. The CDC estimates twenty five

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<v Speaker 11>percent of adults and nearly twenty one percent of children

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<v Speaker 11>across the US have an allergy. Doctors say start preparing

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<v Speaker 11>now by taking allergy medication. Doctor Darien Sutton spoke to ABC.

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<v Speaker 12>Experts recommend number one, know your allergies, so write your

0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:00.760
<v Speaker 12>symptoms down, check the po and counts when you do

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<v Speaker 12>have symptoms because it can help you understand. For example,

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<v Speaker 12>right now, in the late winter, we're going to start

0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.080
<v Speaker 12>to see more tree pollen. In the summer, we see

0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.240
<v Speaker 12>grass pollen, and towards the end of the summer we

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<v Speaker 12>see weed pollen.

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<v Speaker 11>Researchers at Climate Central also found changes and climate can

0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:18.720
<v Speaker 11>lead to a worse reaction for those suffering. Global news

0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:20.960
<v Speaker 11>twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it

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<v Speaker 11>with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is

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<v Speaker 11>Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and

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<v Speaker 2>for that we bring in John stash Hour.

0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:31.760
<v Speaker 6>Thanks Gareth.

0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.959
<v Speaker 13>The Big Twelve Tournament, Iowa State beat Arizona State ninety

0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.280
<v Speaker 13>one to forty two, and then Arizona State fired their coach.

0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:42.680
<v Speaker 13>Bobby Hurley had the job for eleven years. Syracuse fired

0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:46.240
<v Speaker 13>Adrian Autrey, he had that job for three years. World

0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:50.000
<v Speaker 13>Baseball Classic Italy nine to one over Mexico. That keeps

0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:54.360
<v Speaker 13>the USA alive despite their loss to Italy. The Americans

0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.319
<v Speaker 13>will play Canada in a quarterfinal game tomorrow night. That's

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<v Speaker 13>your Bloomberg Sports update.

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<v Speaker 2>Cool.

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<v Speaker 6>Stay with us.

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<v Speaker 2>More from Bloomberg day Break coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 14>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Serious Exam.

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<v Speaker 11>And around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 11>Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 6>This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, nearly two weeks into the Iran War, of the

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<v Speaker 1>world is taking a historic step to try to ease

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<v Speaker 1>the shock to the energy market.

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<v Speaker 4>The International Energy Agency agreed to coordinate the release of

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<v Speaker 4>a record four hundred million barrels of oil from various

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<v Speaker 4>national petroleum reserves around the world, which will substantially reduce

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<v Speaker 4>the oil prices as we end this threat to America

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<v Speaker 4>and this threat to the world.

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump touted the move at a rally in Kentucky,

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<v Speaker 1>but oil prices continue to climb this morning and for more,

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<v Speaker 1>we're joined by Ziod Daoud, chief Emerging Markets economist for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Economics.

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<v Speaker 6>Ziod, good morning.

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<v Speaker 1>We just got the report from the International Energy Agency

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<v Speaker 1>that this conflict is causing the biggest disruption to the

0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:03.199
<v Speaker 1>oil market in its history.

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<v Speaker 6>What more can you tell us? Good morning, Good morning.

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<v Speaker 14>There is a lot of disruption. If you think about

0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.920
<v Speaker 14>the Strait of Hormos alone, we're talking about twenty million

0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 14>barrels of oil that sails through it every day, and

0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.960
<v Speaker 14>that's about twenty percent of global oil supply. That is

0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:20.480
<v Speaker 14>probably one of the biggest supply shocks in history. The

0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.520
<v Speaker 14>question now is not about intensity. No ship is going

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 14>through Hormos. It's a question about duration. How long can

0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.320
<v Speaker 14>this last for? And we ran some scenarios depending on

0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:34.080
<v Speaker 14>the juration. If the disruption of Hormos last about one month,

0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:36.560
<v Speaker 14>we're talking about oil north one hundred around one hundred

0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.240
<v Speaker 14>and five dollars pip barrel. If it lasts for three months,

0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:41.480
<v Speaker 14>the pros will go much higher, to go around one

0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 14>hundred and sixty four dollars pie barrel. So the key

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.680
<v Speaker 14>thing now is how long will Hormos be shot for

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:48.880
<v Speaker 14>and how it will reopen?

0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 1>Does the analysis shift depending on events on the ground.

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:58.440
<v Speaker 1>When we're hearing about attacks on Iraqi waters north of

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:02.280
<v Speaker 1>the Strait of Hormos as well, is this evacuation this

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 1>morning of the main terminal in Oman as well?

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 14>Yes, of course, so the closure or the reopening of

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.080
<v Speaker 14>Homers is more of a geopolitical event than an economic one.

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<v Speaker 14>And we think it is difficult to imagine that the

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:20.480
<v Speaker 14>war maintaining is current very high intensity for many more weeks.

0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.120
<v Speaker 14>Something has to give and the war would move to

0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:28.120
<v Speaker 14>either a lower intensity warfare or even cease far. And

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.920
<v Speaker 14>we think there are three indicators that could bring that

0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:34.200
<v Speaker 14>change to the intensity of war. One of them is

0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:37.079
<v Speaker 14>the economic costs from higher OL prices on the global economy.

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:41.440
<v Speaker 14>As second one is logistical the attacking equipment that Iran

0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 14>has or a defensive equipment that the Gulf or Israel has.

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:47.520
<v Speaker 14>And the third one is popular opinion in the US,

0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:51.920
<v Speaker 14>which may force President Trump to claim victory and decide to.

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 1>End the war in our last minute, thed what about

0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 1>this release of four hundred million barrels at the IA

0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.439
<v Speaker 1>announced yesterday, one hundred and seventy two million of that

0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 1>coming from the Is that going to be enough to

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 1>provide a backstop?

0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.559
<v Speaker 14>The short answer is no. If you think about four

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 14>hundred million barrels, that's like twenty days of normal homeless flows.

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 14>We're already on the thirteenth day of the war. So

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 14>if the war ends in a week's time, that is fine.

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 14>If it lasts longer, then that's not enough. That's just

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.600
<v Speaker 14>going to be a temporary filled to the shortage before

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:21.480
<v Speaker 14>shortage is returned.

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:26.120
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