WEBVTT - Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:24.324 Pushkin. Just a reminder for all of our Risky Business 0:00:24.444 --> 0:00:29.724 fans and listeners. Next week, on the eleventh of December, 0:00:29.764 --> 0:00:32.644 which is a Wednesday, Nate and I will be hosting 0:00:32.724 --> 0:00:37.364 a meetup poker game at the Bellagio Poker Room. So again, 0:00:37.404 --> 0:00:41.444 that's December eleventh at noon at the Bellagio. We hope 0:00:41.484 --> 0:00:44.124 to see you there. There is an RSVP form, It's 0:00:44.124 --> 0:00:46.444 a Google docs. Please fill it out. If you're planning 0:00:46.444 --> 0:00:49.284 on coming, it's going to be in the show notes, 0:00:49.364 --> 0:00:51.444 so check those out. Click on the form and we 0:00:51.484 --> 0:00:52.484 hope to see you next week. 0:00:52.604 --> 0:00:55.284 Yeah. The Belagio, by the way, is in Las Vegas, Nevada, 0:00:55.284 --> 0:01:00.284 actually technically in like Paradise. I think Paradise, but you 0:01:00.324 --> 0:01:02.284 fucking know what the Belagio is. If you're if you're 0:01:02.324 --> 0:01:04.084 a poker player who listens to this show. 0:01:04.084 --> 0:01:04.524 Yes you do. 0:01:04.804 --> 0:01:06.484 Not the one in Italy. I'd been to the one in. 0:01:13.364 --> 0:01:16.684 Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. 0:01:16.804 --> 0:01:18.404 I'm Maria Kannakova. 0:01:18.084 --> 0:01:19.044 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:01:19.444 --> 0:01:20.764 What are we going to be talking about on the 0:01:20.764 --> 0:01:21.484 show today. 0:01:21.284 --> 0:01:25.884 Night, Well, today we'll be talking about Hunter Biden and 0:01:26.204 --> 0:01:29.444 the failure of Joe Biden's presidency, which you disagree probably 0:01:29.644 --> 0:01:32.084 on that characterization as well as the particulars. 0:01:33.524 --> 0:01:36.044 No, actually, you'll be surprised to hear that I do 0:01:36.164 --> 0:01:40.364 not disagree on that particular thing. But we'll be talking 0:01:40.364 --> 0:01:42.644 about that and then we'll do something a little bit lighter, 0:01:42.964 --> 0:01:48.084 the GTO Guide to Gift giving, our game theory, optimal 0:01:48.124 --> 0:01:51.364 guide to giving presents, and also broader question can there 0:01:51.444 --> 0:01:55.044 even be such a thing as gto gift giving? Or 0:01:55.084 --> 0:01:59.044 does that go against the whole spirit of the enterprise. So, 0:01:59.364 --> 0:02:11.284 without further ado, let's get to it. Hunter Biden, Nate, 0:02:11.324 --> 0:02:14.924 do you want to give just the quick summary of 0:02:15.044 --> 0:02:18.564 what happened? What breaking news alert I got this weekend? 0:02:19.284 --> 0:02:21.524 Yeah, So Sunday, we're coming out of the end of 0:02:21.604 --> 0:02:24.204 a holiday weekend, people watch a little bit of NFL, 0:02:25.124 --> 0:02:28.844 and then President Biden says, I am pardoning my fail 0:02:28.964 --> 0:02:32.684 son for a blanket eleven year period that goes from 0:02:32.724 --> 0:02:36.764 twenty fourteen through through November twenty twenty four. There was 0:02:36.804 --> 0:02:40.764 actually like a six hour window on which Hunter Biden 0:02:40.804 --> 0:02:43.284 basically had the purge he could commit any crimes because 0:02:43.284 --> 0:02:47.484 he was like pre pardoned for that day. But Biden, 0:02:47.564 --> 0:02:50.644 despite repeated promises on the campaign trail not to pardon 0:02:50.764 --> 0:02:55.524 his son, including promises made by the White House Press 0:02:55.524 --> 0:02:58.444 secretary after the campaign was lost to Donald Trump. After 0:02:58.484 --> 0:03:06.124 Harris's campaign was decided to issue the pardon anyway. 0:03:04.004 --> 0:03:06.804 He did. Indeed, And as we've talked about on the 0:03:06.804 --> 0:03:09.244 show before, because there's been a lot of breaking news 0:03:09.244 --> 0:03:12.604 that happens in these kinds of periods. Whenever you want 0:03:12.644 --> 0:03:15.844 to bury news, when do you do it? Exactly? You 0:03:15.924 --> 0:03:17.764 do it on holidays, on. 0:03:17.764 --> 0:03:22.564 Weekendriday, Sundays and people are traveling, right exactly. I mean, 0:03:22.564 --> 0:03:26.244 often these pardons are made at the very end of 0:03:26.244 --> 0:03:27.764 an administration, but this was not. 0:03:27.964 --> 0:03:32.404 Yep. Now, this one was made during Thanksgiving, after President 0:03:32.564 --> 0:03:35.564 Biden spent time with his family. I think that timing 0:03:35.604 --> 0:03:39.084 is actually probably meaningful, especially given the kind of moblin 0:03:39.164 --> 0:03:44.004 wording of his Yeah, yeah, I'm pardoning him as a father. Nate, 0:03:44.084 --> 0:03:45.964 you said in the introduction that you thought that I 0:03:46.044 --> 0:03:49.044 was going to really disagree with you. I thought when 0:03:49.124 --> 0:03:52.764 I saw that breaking news headline, I was like, what 0:03:53.164 --> 0:03:58.084 the actual fuck? For a few different reasons. Reason number one, Repeatedly, 0:03:58.284 --> 0:04:01.684 he said he was not going to pardon Hunter and 0:04:01.804 --> 0:04:06.444 members of his administration repeated that up until like November fourteenth, Right, 0:04:06.924 --> 0:04:08.764 that's the last time that I heard it, but maybe 0:04:08.764 --> 0:04:11.724 it was even later. But just like recently, right a 0:04:11.764 --> 0:04:14.164 few weeks ago, they were saying absolutely no pardon. So 0:04:14.204 --> 0:04:16.204 that was just a blatant lie if he knew that 0:04:16.244 --> 0:04:19.284 this was going to happen. And second, like the way 0:04:19.324 --> 0:04:21.564 he did it, Oh, as a father, dude, you are 0:04:21.604 --> 0:04:24.684 the president of the United States of America, right, Like 0:04:24.804 --> 0:04:27.684 I get that you're a dad and you have other obligations, 0:04:27.884 --> 0:04:30.404 but you do not get to make decisions based on 0:04:30.684 --> 0:04:33.724 those things. You have to make decisions as the most 0:04:33.724 --> 0:04:37.524 powerful leader in the world, right as the president of 0:04:37.644 --> 0:04:40.324 the United States. And you don't just get to do 0:04:40.444 --> 0:04:43.004 things because you know your a dad or your family 0:04:43.044 --> 0:04:45.644 member does this, And that's something that should you know, 0:04:45.684 --> 0:04:48.124 apply to everyone. That's one of the reasons that we 0:04:48.204 --> 0:04:53.244 have a democracy and not you know, a kleptoocracy or 0:04:53.324 --> 0:04:57.444 a monarchy or you know, any for a dictatorship or 0:04:57.524 --> 0:05:00.364 any form of government where a nepotism is kind of 0:05:00.364 --> 0:05:03.124 a thing, right, and where you get to do whatever 0:05:03.164 --> 0:05:06.964 you want to those close to you. Now people have said, oh, well, 0:05:07.004 --> 0:05:09.124 you're holding democrats to a higher standard. No, I want 0:05:09.164 --> 0:05:11.404 to hold everyone to this standard. And I think that 0:05:11.644 --> 0:05:15.404 how what Biden did right now really shoots Democrats not 0:05:15.484 --> 0:05:17.524 just in the foot, like in the face. This was 0:05:17.524 --> 0:05:20.324 like such a fuck you to the Democratic Party because 0:05:20.364 --> 0:05:23.204 now when Trump comes into office, he gets to point 0:05:23.204 --> 0:05:25.044 to this and be like, you don't get to judge me. 0:05:25.124 --> 0:05:28.044 This dude pardon his son. And that is such I mean, 0:05:28.364 --> 0:05:30.324 you do not want to give him like he'll do 0:05:30.404 --> 0:05:32.244 whatever the fuck he wants anyway, but like you don't 0:05:32.284 --> 0:05:34.884 want to give him that ammunition, Like don't you want 0:05:34.924 --> 0:05:37.204 to try to save the country instead of make it 0:05:37.244 --> 0:05:38.404 more and more Trumpian? 0:05:39.124 --> 0:05:41.084 Well, look, I mean there are a couple of things here. 0:05:41.404 --> 0:05:45.204 One is that you know, Democrats are the party that 0:05:45.364 --> 0:05:49.684 holds themselves to a higher standard, and so we are 0:05:49.724 --> 0:05:53.644 the defendanive of democracy, right whereas Trump says, you're all 0:05:53.644 --> 0:05:56.324 a bunch of hypocrites. And so if you agree that 0:05:56.324 --> 0:05:58.404 they're a bunch of hypocrites, then built Republican because we're 0:05:58.404 --> 0:06:00.404 going to have more fun and lower your taxes and 0:06:00.444 --> 0:06:03.604 deport all these illegals and things like that. And so 0:06:03.724 --> 0:06:07.084 there is an asymmetry number one, number two, like if 0:06:07.084 --> 0:06:09.684 Biden had gone on TV and said, oh, I'm really 0:06:09.724 --> 0:06:12.964 feel for my son, then that would be one thing, 0:06:14.604 --> 0:06:17.044 and said it's a personal decision, a family decision. I 0:06:17.124 --> 0:06:20.604 just can't help myself. I lost my first son, and 0:06:20.724 --> 0:06:24.124 what can I do here? Right? But instead he issues 0:06:24.164 --> 0:06:27.124 a very Trumpian statement where he says, there has been 0:06:27.164 --> 0:06:29.804 an effort to break Hunter, who has been five and 0:06:29.804 --> 0:06:32.124 a half years sober, in the face of unberlenting attacks 0:06:32.124 --> 0:06:35.324 and selective prosecution in trying to break Hunter, they've tried 0:06:35.324 --> 0:06:37.564 to break me, and there's no reason to believe it 0:06:37.604 --> 0:06:40.084 will stop here. Enough is enough. So it's dressed up 0:06:40.084 --> 0:06:44.404 in this very paranoid Trumpian language, and like, I'm using 0:06:44.404 --> 0:06:46.844 the term paranoid deliberately because I don't think Joe Biden's 0:06:46.884 --> 0:06:49.964 mental health is very good, you know, I don't think. 0:06:50.004 --> 0:06:52.124 I mean. There was also a whole series of interviews 0:06:52.164 --> 0:06:56.524 that the podcast pod Save America did with former Harris staffers, 0:06:56.564 --> 0:07:00.404 and apparently when he chose to drop out, and then 0:07:00.604 --> 0:07:02.764 forty minutes later whatever it was, or fifteen minutes later, 0:07:02.804 --> 0:07:05.084 I forget shortlier after issued a tweet saying, oh, and 0:07:05.204 --> 0:07:08.884 by the way, I'm nominating Harris. Apparently, no one had 0:07:08.884 --> 0:07:11.764 been tipped that. Now I don't know if one hundred 0:07:11.764 --> 0:07:15.164 percent believe that, but the staffer's official story is that, oh, 0:07:15.164 --> 0:07:17.044 Biden just kind of like dropped this bombshell. We knew 0:07:17.044 --> 0:07:18.884 obviously that there's pressure on him to drop out, but 0:07:18.924 --> 0:07:20.484 then he just kind of dropped this bombshell that, oh, 0:07:20.524 --> 0:07:22.684 by the way, it's going to have to be Harris. 0:07:22.684 --> 0:07:24.724 And so this is not somebody who I'm sure is 0:07:24.804 --> 0:07:29.484 operating at the very least not in a highly conscientious way, 0:07:29.564 --> 0:07:31.684 and maybe not with the full deck. I'm not sure. 0:07:32.924 --> 0:07:35.444 Yeah, well, and it did. I mean, like I said 0:07:35.564 --> 0:07:38.164 when when I mentioned that it seemed like a fuck 0:07:38.204 --> 0:07:41.284 you two Democrats, it actually kind of did seem that 0:07:41.324 --> 0:07:44.484 way that he was doing it, like for personal reasons, 0:07:44.484 --> 0:07:47.404 but also because he's still mad, right, He's still mad 0:07:47.444 --> 0:07:50.244 that he had had that he'd been cast aside. He's 0:07:50.284 --> 0:07:53.404 still mad that he's a one term president. He's pissed, 0:07:53.884 --> 0:07:57.044 and that is much more Trumpian than, you know, what 0:07:57.164 --> 0:08:00.844 I would expect of Biden. And you know, if you 0:08:00.924 --> 0:08:03.804 put it, I was actually thinking about this, you know, 0:08:03.804 --> 0:08:05.804 because I'm working on a book about cheating and kind 0:08:05.844 --> 0:08:09.404 of thinking in those terms. If you think about it, 0:08:09.724 --> 0:08:14.324 like as a poker thing, right, and there's someone who's 0:08:14.564 --> 0:08:18.284 like cheats, right or angle shoots like consistently, right, what 0:08:18.404 --> 0:08:21.524 do you what do you do? Right? Do you start 0:08:21.644 --> 0:08:23.124 being like, oh, well he's doing it, so I get 0:08:23.164 --> 0:08:25.324 to cheat too, No, the game's going to evolve, right, 0:08:25.404 --> 0:08:27.484 like there'll be no game left to play. Instead, you 0:08:27.524 --> 0:08:29.564 call that person out, you make sure that they get 0:08:29.844 --> 0:08:32.964 penalized for it. And you don't do that right, like 0:08:33.084 --> 0:08:36.444 you you actually try to uphold the game. And that's 0:08:36.484 --> 0:08:39.924 what democrats in this analogy. You know, Trump is kind 0:08:39.964 --> 0:08:43.524 of the constant angle shooter, the constant person like pushing 0:08:43.604 --> 0:08:47.444 the pushing the boundaries, pushing the rules. And what we 0:08:47.524 --> 0:08:50.444 want to see is, you know, they're being pushed back. 0:08:50.764 --> 0:08:53.204 And yeah, of course we want to see that he 0:08:53.244 --> 0:08:55.284 doesn't get away with it. We want to see democracy 0:08:55.404 --> 0:08:58.884 standing up to him. We want to see institutions being resilient. 0:08:59.204 --> 0:09:01.324 We don't want people to get away with angle shooting. 0:09:01.484 --> 0:09:03.684 But what you don't start doing is doing it yourself 0:09:03.764 --> 0:09:07.124 and adopting those exact that exact same language. Like it's 0:09:07.244 --> 0:09:10.284 just a really bad look. And I was incredibly INCREDI disappointed. 0:09:10.484 --> 0:09:13.364 The thing I disagreed with you on was when you said, 0:09:14.084 --> 0:09:18.204 you know, anyone who doesn't condemn this within forty eight hours. 0:09:17.324 --> 0:09:19.444 Like a made him being a little bit of a 0:09:19.524 --> 0:09:23.604 drama queen potentially, But like like a couple of Democrats did. 0:09:23.684 --> 0:09:28.524 Jared Polus, the governor of Colorado did. Jared Golden, the 0:09:28.524 --> 0:09:32.324 Democrat up in northern Maine who has really overperformed benchmarks 0:09:32.364 --> 0:09:36.164 in his district, condemned it. But like, I don't know, 0:09:36.284 --> 0:09:38.284 I mean, you have to have Biden's not very popular. 0:09:38.324 --> 0:09:42.124 People just rejected his vice president after basically having rejected him. 0:09:42.164 --> 0:09:44.804 They basically lost this race twice. As far as I'm concerned, 0:09:46.084 --> 0:09:48.924 like when are you going to break with Biden? Right? 0:09:49.004 --> 0:09:52.964 Like what's what's the cost of doing that? And saying 0:09:53.004 --> 0:09:54.924 we are going to hold ourselves to like a higher 0:09:54.964 --> 0:09:58.884 standard potentially, But like I look, I know, Maria, this 0:09:58.924 --> 0:10:02.404 whole thing about like how you enable bad behavior when 0:10:02.444 --> 0:10:04.684 you don't call it out and the fact that the 0:10:04.724 --> 0:10:06.964 GOP has lots of problems. I mean, Trump has lost 0:10:06.964 --> 0:10:08.724 the problems. I would never vote, never did, never would 0:10:08.804 --> 0:10:11.924 vote for Donald try, right, But like you kind of 0:10:11.964 --> 0:10:14.604 are reducing things to like the lowest common denominator and 0:10:14.684 --> 0:10:18.124 like as a voter then look, I don't know how 0:10:18.164 --> 0:10:21.124 to put it, but like I am done with as 0:10:21.124 --> 0:10:24.644 a default voting for the Democratic Party, right, it doesn't 0:10:24.764 --> 0:10:27.244 change my values as a voter. And you kind of know, 0:10:27.244 --> 0:10:30.204 if you follow me, I'm kind of center left, maybe 0:10:30.204 --> 0:10:32.684 center center left, with like a dose of libertarianism and 0:10:32.724 --> 0:10:35.764 a dose of I don't know, contrarianism whatever else. But like, 0:10:35.844 --> 0:10:40.124 I think this party has behaved badly, and I think 0:10:40.164 --> 0:10:42.204 like it's managed a lot of crises badly. I thought 0:10:42.244 --> 0:10:45.924 the way Democrats handled COVID and Republicans was was poor. 0:10:45.964 --> 0:10:49.604 For example, you know, I don't know about its decision 0:10:49.724 --> 0:10:52.084 to spend so much money in terms of stimulating the economy. 0:10:52.124 --> 0:10:53.684 I mean, they did catch up with them in terms 0:10:53.724 --> 0:10:57.044 of inflation and so forth. I think, you know, the 0:10:57.124 --> 0:10:59.564 institutions of the left and the center left, I think 0:10:59.604 --> 0:11:02.684 are failing to perform as well as they could, in 0:11:02.724 --> 0:11:06.604 part because of hypocrisy and politicization. And like, I just 0:11:06.724 --> 0:11:08.564 think the game theory is such that like you have 0:11:08.604 --> 0:11:13.004 to be willing to like look at alternatives. I guess, 0:11:13.044 --> 0:11:15.164 you know, I'm not optimistic that I'll get an alternative. 0:11:15.164 --> 0:11:17.204 I like, on the GOP side, and then I'll probably 0:11:17.204 --> 0:11:21.084 default and vote for the Democrat. I don't know. I mean, 0:11:21.084 --> 0:11:24.764 certainly I look at independent candidacies more seriously, but like 0:11:25.084 --> 0:11:26.644 you know, everyone's a point where they kind of get 0:11:27.164 --> 0:11:29.364 fit up and says enough and like because again I 0:11:29.364 --> 0:11:32.124 think kind of like on the micro argument, if you're 0:11:32.124 --> 0:11:35.564 trying to calculate the expected value these choices, and you know, 0:11:35.564 --> 0:11:38.404 at least in terms of expected utility for the world 0:11:38.444 --> 0:11:42.204 we've talked about before, probably Democrats are better. I'm not 0:11:42.244 --> 0:11:45.204 as sure about for me personally, but I can afford 0:11:45.284 --> 0:11:49.164 to be unselfish about this. But like in a macro sense, 0:11:49.884 --> 0:11:51.924 I don't know, the critique that the system is rotten 0:11:51.964 --> 0:11:53.764 and we have to blow things up. I mean I'm 0:11:54.084 --> 0:11:55.964 more and more sympathetic to that. 0:11:57.604 --> 0:12:01.404 Yeah, I just I totally agree that. And you know, 0:12:01.724 --> 0:12:03.804 as I said, you need to call out bad behavior 0:12:03.884 --> 0:12:06.244 and you can't shy away from calling it out within 0:12:06.844 --> 0:12:09.804 your own party as well, Like you have to hold 0:12:09.844 --> 0:12:13.644 people to standards. What I don't want to do is 0:12:13.764 --> 0:12:16.484 equate the bad behavior of what's happening in the Democratic 0:12:16.524 --> 0:12:18.404 Party with the Republican Party. And I don't think you 0:12:19.084 --> 0:12:21.804 want to either. Rite like, but I think it's a 0:12:21.804 --> 0:12:25.804 false equivalency, right, I think that what I think, I 0:12:25.844 --> 0:12:28.884 think that what have done. I think that the party 0:12:28.924 --> 0:12:29.964 of Trump is worse. 0:12:30.284 --> 0:12:32.204 I think. I think when you think everything's a false equivalent, say, 0:12:32.244 --> 0:12:36.524 then you then you get away with not all. I 0:12:36.524 --> 0:12:40.564 mean Biden. I think Biden being president now is a scandal. Right. 0:12:41.044 --> 0:12:43.404 We shouldn't we have these medical records, right, we don't 0:12:43.404 --> 0:12:45.764 know if he's fit for office. Like, to me, that's 0:12:45.804 --> 0:12:48.724 really bad. That's it. That's an existentially bad thing because 0:12:48.764 --> 0:12:51.724 we live in a world of like existential risk. I 0:12:51.724 --> 0:12:54.284 think that's very very bad, right. I think the pardon 0:12:54.444 --> 0:12:57.164 is medium bad. But you know, on a scale with 0:12:57.204 --> 0:12:59.924 the medium bad things that that Trump has done, and 0:12:59.964 --> 0:13:01.884 if you kind of like zoom out the lens and 0:13:01.884 --> 0:13:04.684 look toward institutional decisions, I mean things like school closures 0:13:04.724 --> 0:13:08.004 under COVID one of the most consequential events of like 0:13:08.124 --> 0:13:10.444 the past several decades, right, I mean, it's it's almost 0:13:10.484 --> 0:13:12.484 like a if you look at the impact of learning loss. 0:13:12.804 --> 0:13:14.884 There's some dispute about it, but it's really quite bad. 0:13:15.644 --> 0:13:20.244 I don't know. I still, you know, I agree that 0:13:20.284 --> 0:13:22.284 there have been mistakes and there have been bad things, 0:13:22.324 --> 0:13:25.164 but I do not think that they're equivalently bad, and 0:13:25.244 --> 0:13:28.124 I think that we have you know, sure, Biden being 0:13:28.164 --> 0:13:32.484 president right now is not ideal. But Trump, what he 0:13:32.564 --> 0:13:34.524 has done, what he has pledged to do, what he 0:13:34.564 --> 0:13:38.324 has shown himself capable of doing, is like a constant 0:13:38.404 --> 0:13:42.644 existential threat, right like his appointees to the judicial system, 0:13:43.124 --> 0:13:46.084 his appointees to the cabinet, which we've talked about, and 0:13:46.124 --> 0:13:50.604 continue it continuing, you know, continuing that trend, you know, 0:13:50.764 --> 0:13:54.204 like the the cashpitels of the world. You know, all 0:13:54.244 --> 0:13:56.964 all of these things are a big fuck you to democracy, 0:13:57.284 --> 0:13:59.644 constantly over and over and over, saying he's going to 0:13:59.684 --> 0:14:03.484 shut down media, you know, fake news, anything, he who 0:14:03.764 --> 0:14:06.644 anyone who criticizes him, and a lot of his you know, 0:14:06.804 --> 0:14:13.604 policies are aimed at basically trying to you know, trying 0:14:13.604 --> 0:14:16.404 to weaken democracy as much as possible. And he has 0:14:16.444 --> 0:14:20.084 also you know, doled out pardons too less than ideal people. Now, 0:14:20.204 --> 0:14:23.284 like I said, this does not excuse the fact, Like 0:14:23.324 --> 0:14:25.244 I'm not trying to excuse Biden, right, I think he 0:14:25.284 --> 0:14:26.644 needs to be held to account. But I think this 0:14:26.764 --> 0:14:29.724 was an awful decision executed in an awful way. As 0:14:29.764 --> 0:14:32.084 you said, this pardon could have been much better, right 0:14:32.124 --> 0:14:34.364 had he not constantly said I'm not going to pardon 0:14:34.364 --> 0:14:37.364 a hunter, had he just not lied about it, and 0:14:37.484 --> 0:14:40.244 had he like just owned it and been like, look like, 0:14:40.364 --> 0:14:42.804 I understand that I shouldn't be doing this, but I'm 0:14:42.844 --> 0:14:45.804 doing it anyway, Like I'm sorry, right, Like, that would 0:14:45.804 --> 0:14:48.884 have been very different. The way he did it was Trumpian. 0:14:49.124 --> 0:14:51.924 But the fact that we have this adjective Trumpian means 0:14:52.044 --> 0:14:56.484 that right that there is I think that we can't 0:14:56.484 --> 0:15:00.604 say like A equals B like these are two different things. 0:15:00.844 --> 0:15:04.644 And the Republican Party has repeatedly shown itself unwilling to 0:15:04.684 --> 0:15:07.404 stand up to Trump and basically trying to go into 0:15:07.404 --> 0:15:12.204 his mold instead, and I think that that's very frightening. Again, 0:15:13.004 --> 0:15:15.604 this does not mean we do not hold the Democratic 0:15:15.684 --> 0:15:18.444 Party to account. As you said at the beginning of 0:15:18.484 --> 0:15:20.964 this segment, they are held to a higher standard. They 0:15:21.004 --> 0:15:24.844 should be because they are trying to preserve democracy. But 0:15:24.964 --> 0:15:26.804 I do think we just want to be careful not 0:15:26.924 --> 0:15:29.684 to paint a false equivalency here. 0:15:29.844 --> 0:15:31.724 Are they trying to preserve democracy or is that like 0:15:31.924 --> 0:15:33.964 a sloganeering. I mean, they tried to get. 0:15:34.004 --> 0:15:37.804 What you said Okay, I'm giving you back your quote. 0:15:38.484 --> 0:15:42.644 I think intellectuals generally care about democracy, although there's also 0:15:42.724 --> 0:15:46.004 things like, you know, Democrats don't really talk very much 0:15:46.004 --> 0:15:50.964 about free speech anymore, Republicans talk about it hypocritically. You know, 0:15:51.564 --> 0:15:53.244 I don't know, I mean some of the COVID stuff. 0:15:53.284 --> 0:15:56.804 I mean, you had decisions that were made by public 0:15:56.844 --> 0:15:58.964 health agencies that had a lot of power that were 0:15:58.964 --> 0:16:01.684 not democratically elected, for example, And like, I don't know, 0:16:01.844 --> 0:16:05.404 I think that branding doesn't work particularly well if you 0:16:05.444 --> 0:16:07.364 look actually talked to swing voters and say who is 0:16:07.404 --> 0:16:11.044 a party of democracy? Then look, look what Trump did 0:16:11.084 --> 0:16:14.524 and trying to overturn the election in twenty twenty was 0:16:15.444 --> 0:16:18.484 very bad, and the fact that it's kind of been 0:16:18.484 --> 0:16:23.004 memory hold is really really bad. Right. But I just 0:16:23.044 --> 0:16:27.364 think the equilibrium where anything you do is held to 0:16:27.404 --> 0:16:32.844 this benchmark of like January sixth, and therefore anything you 0:16:32.884 --> 0:16:35.404 do is false equivalents, Like, I just where's that end? 0:16:35.404 --> 0:16:37.684 It ends in the Democratic Party behaving really badly and 0:16:37.724 --> 0:16:39.964 also losing elections. 0:16:39.964 --> 0:16:42.124 Frankly, well, well that's not what I'm trying to say. 0:16:42.204 --> 0:16:44.324 I'm just saying there is you are trying to draw 0:16:44.444 --> 0:16:47.404 false equivalence. That does not mean we don't have to 0:16:47.484 --> 0:16:51.244 hold Democrats to a high standard. Right, there needs to 0:16:51.284 --> 0:16:54.724 be changed. Both parties are rotting and there are there's 0:16:54.804 --> 0:16:57.764 horrible stuff happening right, Like our two party system is 0:16:57.804 --> 0:17:01.084 not working very well. And as you know, as I've 0:17:01.084 --> 0:17:03.324 said on this podcast before, I'm not a fan of 0:17:03.924 --> 0:17:06.724 the two party system. I never have been. I think 0:17:06.764 --> 0:17:10.404 that that is not a good way going about things. 0:17:10.724 --> 0:17:15.124 So I am all for you know, holding them to account, reforming, 0:17:15.204 --> 0:17:18.404 like trying to really question what's going what's going wrong. 0:17:18.644 --> 0:17:21.564 I just want to make sure that we're not saying, oh, well, 0:17:21.604 --> 0:17:23.604 Biden's now just as bad as Trump. He is not, 0:17:24.124 --> 0:17:26.324 and like, do not say that, I know you know 0:17:26.404 --> 0:17:29.364 that he is not. Don't don't do this for rhetorical purposes, 0:17:29.404 --> 0:17:31.724 like this is too important for like we're not doing 0:17:31.764 --> 0:17:34.844 a high school debate like this is this is actually 0:17:34.964 --> 0:17:38.724 like this is actually too important for rhetorical flourishes. I 0:17:38.804 --> 0:17:41.804 was a champion debate or I can rhetorically flourish too, 0:17:41.844 --> 0:17:43.004 And I'm choosing not to. 0:17:43.844 --> 0:17:46.644 Where's Biden ranked historically among the presidents? Let me bring 0:17:46.724 --> 0:17:47.564 up some historically. 0:17:48.044 --> 0:17:50.764 I don't know, Yeah, I don't know, not very high 0:17:51.044 --> 0:17:53.844 now in my mind, because I think that he has 0:17:53.884 --> 0:17:57.004 done made certain decisions. I think I would have ranked 0:17:57.044 --> 0:18:00.204 him much higher a year ago, right, I think that 0:18:00.244 --> 0:18:01.004 this last. 0:18:00.964 --> 0:18:03.244 Yer, he's a lot done. In the first two years 0:18:03.324 --> 0:18:05.164 Democrats had a relatively good mid term. 0:18:05.924 --> 0:18:08.564 I would have ranked Biden a lot higher just a 0:18:08.684 --> 0:18:10.564 year ago, because I think he got a lot done 0:18:10.604 --> 0:18:12.684 and he you know, he was he had a good 0:18:12.724 --> 0:18:15.284 presidency and then he made such shitty decisions in the 0:18:15.364 --> 0:18:20.644 last year that it's really my my ranking has plummeted. 0:18:21.004 --> 0:18:22.804 I can't give a ranking right now. I think it's 0:18:22.844 --> 0:18:27.844 always very it's ill advised to try to rank people 0:18:27.884 --> 0:18:30.084 in the moment, right You need you need a little 0:18:30.124 --> 0:18:32.444 bit of time, like you need you need a little 0:18:32.484 --> 0:18:34.764 bit of a of a window, a little bit of 0:18:34.804 --> 0:18:37.924 perspective to just kind of see how things play out, 0:18:37.964 --> 0:18:39.924 because you also can't see kind of the tail end 0:18:39.964 --> 0:18:43.044 of some decisions. Right Like, maybe this Hunter Biden pardon 0:18:43.124 --> 0:18:45.564 will end up like not really mattering, and maybe it 0:18:45.604 --> 0:18:47.964 will end up mattering a lot. Maybe the fact that 0:18:48.364 --> 0:18:51.884 he hasn't stepped down right now and hasn't made Kamayers 0:18:51.924 --> 0:18:54.964 the next president, first female president. Maybe it won't matter. 0:18:55.004 --> 0:18:57.004 Maybe it will end up mattering a lot, right, Like, 0:18:57.044 --> 0:18:59.124 maybe something is going to happen in the next four 0:18:59.164 --> 0:19:02.804 weeks that's going to make that really consequential. Maybe the 0:19:02.804 --> 0:19:04.924 fact that the Democrats lost is going to end up 0:19:04.924 --> 0:19:07.204 mattering a lot. Maybe it's going to end up mattering 0:19:07.244 --> 0:19:09.084 a little bit less. So I think that before we 0:19:09.164 --> 0:19:11.124 rank him, we just need to see how some of 0:19:11.164 --> 0:19:15.084 these things shake out and how they know not be 0:19:15.204 --> 0:19:17.524 in the emotional moment heat of the moment. But right now, 0:19:17.524 --> 0:19:20.044 I'm really pissed at Biden, and I you know, I 0:19:20.044 --> 0:19:24.004 think he's made some really really poor choices running for reelection. 0:19:24.524 --> 0:19:27.604 What he's doing right now, the Biden, the Hunter, Biden pardon. 0:19:28.324 --> 0:19:31.124 I'm not a very happy camper right now when it 0:19:31.124 --> 0:19:31.804 comes to Biden. 0:19:32.284 --> 0:19:36.044 By the way, this was not the expected outcome, right 0:19:36.044 --> 0:19:37.644 If you looked at polymarket, I think there was like 0:19:37.644 --> 0:19:39.924 a twenty five percent chance or something that Hunter was 0:19:39.924 --> 0:19:41.524 going to be pardon, and so this was like not 0:19:41.724 --> 0:19:44.884 like priced in. People kind of took the White House 0:19:44.924 --> 0:19:48.604 at its word. I don't know, I don't envy the 0:19:48.644 --> 0:19:50.844 job of the White House Press Secretary. 0:19:51.364 --> 0:19:53.564 No neither do I. Neither do I This is this 0:19:53.604 --> 0:19:56.524 is quite the mess that he's now embroiled everyone in right, 0:19:56.524 --> 0:19:59.044 because he's made a lot of people look like liars 0:19:59.484 --> 0:20:01.604 because a lot of people have said, no, we were 0:20:01.844 --> 0:20:06.724 this pardon is not happening. So on that lovely note, 0:20:06.804 --> 0:20:10.164 let's potentially take a let's take a break and uh 0:20:10.364 --> 0:20:15.404 and switch over to a much lighter topic of gift 0:20:15.564 --> 0:20:39.364 giving during the holidays. I'm so curious about this. I 0:20:39.484 --> 0:20:43.164 just I'm so interested in what your general approach to 0:20:43.524 --> 0:20:46.204 gift giving is. This is something I don't actually know 0:20:46.244 --> 0:20:48.244 about you. I've known you for a long time, but 0:20:48.484 --> 0:20:52.404 it's not like we constantly engage in gift exchanges. So 0:20:53.284 --> 0:20:54.364 how do you think about it? 0:20:55.124 --> 0:21:02.284 I don't know if I'm a very good gift giver, Maria. 0:21:00.364 --> 0:21:03.804 Well, you your partner is. So for my birthday, your 0:21:03.804 --> 0:21:06.524 partner has given me incredibly thoughtful gifts from the two 0:21:06.524 --> 0:21:08.484 of you. So so thank you to. 0:21:08.524 --> 0:21:11.804 Him for Yeah, be in a long term relationship with 0:21:11.844 --> 0:21:13.844 someone who is good at giving gifts. Although with my 0:21:15.084 --> 0:21:17.844 can I say this, I'm kind of trying to predictive 0:21:17.844 --> 0:21:21.444 they'll be like relationship stress out of this. With with 0:21:21.484 --> 0:21:24.964 my partner, we tend not to give each other a 0:21:24.964 --> 0:21:26.644