Speaker 1: Pushkin. Just a reminder for all of our Risky Business
Speaker 1: fans and listeners. Next week, on the eleventh of December,
Speaker 1: which is a Wednesday, Nate and I will be hosting
Speaker 1: a meetup poker game at the Bellagio Poker Room. So again,
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Speaker 2: Yeah. The Belagio, by the way, is in Las Vegas, Nevada,
Speaker 2: actually technically in like Paradise. I think Paradise, but you
Speaker 2: fucking know what the Belagio is. If you're if you're
Speaker 2: a poker player who listens to this show.
Speaker 1: Yes you do.
Speaker 2: Not the one in Italy. I'd been to the one in.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.
Speaker 1: I'm Maria Kannakova.
Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver.
Speaker 1: What are we going to be talking about on the
Speaker 1: show today.
Speaker 2: Night, Well, today we'll be talking about Hunter Biden and
Speaker 2: the failure of Joe Biden's presidency, which you disagree probably
Speaker 2: on that characterization as well as the particulars.
Speaker 1: No, actually, you'll be surprised to hear that I do
Speaker 1: not disagree on that particular thing. But we'll be talking
Speaker 1: about that and then we'll do something a little bit lighter,
Speaker 1: the GTO Guide to Gift giving, our game theory, optimal
Speaker 1: guide to giving presents, and also broader question can there
Speaker 1: even be such a thing as gto gift giving? Or
Speaker 1: does that go against the whole spirit of the enterprise. So,
Speaker 1: without further ado, let's get to it. Hunter Biden, Nate,
Speaker 1: do you want to give just the quick summary of
Speaker 1: what happened? What breaking news alert I got this weekend?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Sunday, we're coming out of the end of
Speaker 2: a holiday weekend, people watch a little bit of NFL,
Speaker 2: and then President Biden says, I am pardoning my fail
Speaker 2: son for a blanket eleven year period that goes from
Speaker 2: twenty fourteen through through November twenty twenty four. There was
Speaker 2: actually like a six hour window on which Hunter Biden
Speaker 2: basically had the purge he could commit any crimes because
Speaker 2: he was like pre pardoned for that day. But Biden,
Speaker 2: despite repeated promises on the campaign trail not to pardon
Speaker 2: his son, including promises made by the White House Press
Speaker 2: secretary after the campaign was lost to Donald Trump. After
Speaker 2: Harris's campaign was decided to issue the pardon anyway.
Speaker 1: He did. Indeed, And as we've talked about on the
Speaker 1: show before, because there's been a lot of breaking news
Speaker 1: that happens in these kinds of periods. Whenever you want
Speaker 1: to bury news, when do you do it? Exactly? You
Speaker 1: do it on holidays, on.
Speaker 2: Weekendriday, Sundays and people are traveling, right exactly. I mean,
Speaker 2: often these pardons are made at the very end of
Speaker 2: an administration, but this was not.
Speaker 1: Yep. Now, this one was made during Thanksgiving, after President
Speaker 1: Biden spent time with his family. I think that timing
Speaker 1: is actually probably meaningful, especially given the kind of moblin
Speaker 1: wording of his Yeah, yeah, I'm pardoning him as a father. Nate,
Speaker 1: you said in the introduction that you thought that I
Speaker 1: was going to really disagree with you. I thought when
Speaker 1: I saw that breaking news headline, I was like, what
Speaker 1: the actual fuck? For a few different reasons. Reason number one, Repeatedly,
Speaker 1: he said he was not going to pardon Hunter and
Speaker 1: members of his administration repeated that up until like November fourteenth, Right,
Speaker 1: that's the last time that I heard it, but maybe
Speaker 1: it was even later. But just like recently, right a
Speaker 1: few weeks ago, they were saying absolutely no pardon. So
Speaker 1: that was just a blatant lie if he knew that
Speaker 1: this was going to happen. And second, like the way
Speaker 1: he did it, Oh, as a father, dude, you are
Speaker 1: the president of the United States of America, right, Like
Speaker 1: I get that you're a dad and you have other obligations,
Speaker 1: but you do not get to make decisions based on
Speaker 1: those things. You have to make decisions as the most
Speaker 1: powerful leader in the world, right as the president of
Speaker 1: the United States. And you don't just get to do
Speaker 1: things because you know your a dad or your family
Speaker 1: member does this, And that's something that should you know,
Speaker 1: apply to everyone. That's one of the reasons that we
Speaker 1: have a democracy and not you know, a kleptoocracy or
Speaker 1: a monarchy or you know, any for a dictatorship or
Speaker 1: any form of government where a nepotism is kind of
Speaker 1: a thing, right, and where you get to do whatever
Speaker 1: you want to those close to you. Now people have said, oh, well,
Speaker 1: you're holding democrats to a higher standard. No, I want
Speaker 1: to hold everyone to this standard. And I think that
Speaker 1: how what Biden did right now really shoots Democrats not
Speaker 1: just in the foot, like in the face. This was
Speaker 1: like such a fuck you to the Democratic Party because
Speaker 1: now when Trump comes into office, he gets to point
Speaker 1: to this and be like, you don't get to judge me.
Speaker 1: This dude pardon his son. And that is such I mean,
Speaker 1: you do not want to give him like he'll do
Speaker 1: whatever the fuck he wants anyway, but like you don't
Speaker 1: want to give him that ammunition, Like don't you want
Speaker 1: to try to save the country instead of make it
Speaker 1: more and more Trumpian?
Speaker 2: Well, look, I mean there are a couple of things here.
Speaker 2: One is that you know, Democrats are the party that
Speaker 2: holds themselves to a higher standard, and so we are
Speaker 2: the defendanive of democracy, right whereas Trump says, you're all
Speaker 2: a bunch of hypocrites. And so if you agree that
Speaker 2: they're a bunch of hypocrites, then built Republican because we're
Speaker 2: going to have more fun and lower your taxes and
Speaker 2: deport all these illegals and things like that. And so
Speaker 2: there is an asymmetry number one, number two, like if
Speaker 2: Biden had gone on TV and said, oh, I'm really
Speaker 2: feel for my son, then that would be one thing,
Speaker 2: and said it's a personal decision, a family decision. I
Speaker 2: just can't help myself. I lost my first son, and
Speaker 2: what can I do here? Right? But instead he issues
Speaker 2: a very Trumpian statement where he says, there has been
Speaker 2: an effort to break Hunter, who has been five and
Speaker 2: a half years sober, in the face of unberlenting attacks
Speaker 2: and selective prosecution in trying to break Hunter, they've tried
Speaker 2: to break me, and there's no reason to believe it
Speaker 2: will stop here. Enough is enough. So it's dressed up
Speaker 2: in this very paranoid Trumpian language, and like, I'm using
Speaker 2: the term paranoid deliberately because I don't think Joe Biden's
Speaker 2: mental health is very good, you know, I don't think.
Speaker 2: I mean. There was also a whole series of interviews
Speaker 2: that the podcast pod Save America did with former Harris staffers,
Speaker 2: and apparently when he chose to drop out, and then
Speaker 2: forty minutes later whatever it was, or fifteen minutes later,
Speaker 2: I forget shortlier after issued a tweet saying, oh, and
Speaker 2: by the way, I'm nominating Harris. Apparently, no one had
Speaker 2: been tipped that. Now I don't know if one hundred
Speaker 2: percent believe that, but the staffer's official story is that, oh,
Speaker 2: Biden just kind of like dropped this bombshell. We knew
Speaker 2: obviously that there's pressure on him to drop out, but
Speaker 2: then he just kind of dropped this bombshell that, oh,
Speaker 2: by the way, it's going to have to be Harris.
Speaker 2: And so this is not somebody who I'm sure is
Speaker 2: operating at the very least not in a highly conscientious way,
Speaker 2: and maybe not with the full deck. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, and it did. I mean, like I said
Speaker 1: when when I mentioned that it seemed like a fuck
Speaker 1: you two Democrats, it actually kind of did seem that
Speaker 1: way that he was doing it, like for personal reasons,
Speaker 1: but also because he's still mad, right, He's still mad
Speaker 1: that he had had that he'd been cast aside. He's
Speaker 1: still mad that he's a one term president. He's pissed,
Speaker 1: and that is much more Trumpian than, you know, what
Speaker 1: I would expect of Biden. And you know, if you
Speaker 1: put it, I was actually thinking about this, you know,
Speaker 1: because I'm working on a book about cheating and kind
Speaker 1: of thinking in those terms. If you think about it,
Speaker 1: like as a poker thing, right, and there's someone who's
Speaker 1: like cheats, right or angle shoots like consistently, right, what
Speaker 1: do you what do you do? Right? Do you start
Speaker 1: being like, oh, well he's doing it, so I get
Speaker 1: to cheat too, No, the game's going to evolve, right,
Speaker 1: like there'll be no game left to play. Instead, you
Speaker 1: call that person out, you make sure that they get
Speaker 1: penalized for it. And you don't do that right, like
Speaker 1: you you actually try to uphold the game. And that's
Speaker 1: what democrats in this analogy. You know, Trump is kind
Speaker 1: of the constant angle shooter, the constant person like pushing
Speaker 1: the pushing the boundaries, pushing the rules. And what we
Speaker 1: want to see is, you know, they're being pushed back.
Speaker 1: And yeah, of course we want to see that he
Speaker 1: doesn't get away with it. We want to see democracy
Speaker 1: standing up to him. We want to see institutions being resilient.
Speaker 1: We don't want people to get away with angle shooting.
Speaker 1: But what you don't start doing is doing it yourself
Speaker 1: and adopting those exact that exact same language. Like it's
Speaker 1: just a really bad look. And I was incredibly INCREDI disappointed.
Speaker 1: The thing I disagreed with you on was when you said,
Speaker 1: you know, anyone who doesn't condemn this within forty eight hours.
Speaker 2: Like a made him being a little bit of a
Speaker 2: drama queen potentially, But like like a couple of Democrats did.
Speaker 2: Jared Polus, the governor of Colorado did. Jared Golden, the
Speaker 2: Democrat up in northern Maine who has really overperformed benchmarks
Speaker 2: in his district, condemned it. But like, I don't know,
Speaker 2: I mean, you have to have Biden's not very popular.
Speaker 2: People just rejected his vice president after basically having rejected him.
Speaker 2: They basically lost this race twice. As far as I'm concerned,
Speaker 2: like when are you going to break with Biden? Right?
Speaker 2: Like what's what's the cost of doing that? And saying
Speaker 2: we are going to hold ourselves to like a higher
Speaker 2: standard potentially, But like I look, I know, Maria, this
Speaker 2: whole thing about like how you enable bad behavior when
Speaker 2: you don't call it out and the fact that the
Speaker 2: GOP has lots of problems. I mean, Trump has lost
Speaker 2: the problems. I would never vote, never did, never would
Speaker 2: vote for Donald try, right, But like you kind of
Speaker 2: are reducing things to like the lowest common denominator and
Speaker 2: like as a voter then look, I don't know how
Speaker 2: to put it, but like I am done with as
Speaker 2: a default voting for the Democratic Party, right, it doesn't
Speaker 2: change my values as a voter. And you kind of know,
Speaker 2: if you follow me, I'm kind of center left, maybe
Speaker 2: center center left, with like a dose of libertarianism and
Speaker 2: a dose of I don't know, contrarianism whatever else. But like,
Speaker 2: I think this party has behaved badly, and I think
Speaker 2: like it's managed a lot of crises badly. I thought
Speaker 2: the way Democrats handled COVID and Republicans was was poor.
Speaker 2: For example, you know, I don't know about its decision
Speaker 2: to spend so much money in terms of stimulating the economy.
Speaker 2: I mean, they did catch up with them in terms
Speaker 2: of inflation and so forth. I think, you know, the
Speaker 2: institutions of the left and the center left, I think
Speaker 2: are failing to perform as well as they could, in
Speaker 2: part because of hypocrisy and politicization. And like, I just
Speaker 2: think the game theory is such that like you have
Speaker 2: to be willing to like look at alternatives. I guess,
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not optimistic that I'll get an alternative.
Speaker 2: I like, on the GOP side, and then I'll probably
Speaker 2: default and vote for the Democrat. I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 2: certainly I look at independent candidacies more seriously, but like
Speaker 2: you know, everyone's a point where they kind of get
Speaker 2: fit up and says enough and like because again I
Speaker 2: think kind of like on the micro argument, if you're
Speaker 2: trying to calculate the expected value these choices, and you know,
Speaker 2: at least in terms of expected utility for the world
Speaker 2: we've talked about before, probably Democrats are better. I'm not
Speaker 2: as sure about for me personally, but I can afford
Speaker 2: to be unselfish about this. But like in a macro sense,
Speaker 2: I don't know, the critique that the system is rotten
Speaker 2: and we have to blow things up. I mean I'm
Speaker 2: more and more sympathetic to that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I totally agree that. And you know,
Speaker 1: as I said, you need to call out bad behavior
Speaker 1: and you can't shy away from calling it out within
Speaker 1: your own party as well, Like you have to hold
Speaker 1: people to standards. What I don't want to do is
Speaker 1: equate the bad behavior of what's happening in the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party with the Republican Party. And I don't think you
Speaker 1: want to either. Rite like, but I think it's a
Speaker 1: false equivalency, right, I think that what I think, I
Speaker 1: think that what have done. I think that the party
Speaker 1: of Trump is worse.
Speaker 2: I think. I think when you think everything's a false equivalent, say,
Speaker 2: then you then you get away with not all. I
Speaker 2: mean Biden. I think Biden being president now is a scandal. Right.
Speaker 2: We shouldn't we have these medical records, right, we don't
Speaker 2: know if he's fit for office. Like, to me, that's
Speaker 2: really bad. That's it. That's an existentially bad thing because
Speaker 2: we live in a world of like existential risk. I
Speaker 2: think that's very very bad, right. I think the pardon
Speaker 2: is medium bad. But you know, on a scale with
Speaker 2: the medium bad things that that Trump has done, and
Speaker 2: if you kind of like zoom out the lens and
Speaker 2: look toward institutional decisions, I mean things like school closures
Speaker 2: under COVID one of the most consequential events of like
Speaker 2: the past several decades, right, I mean, it's it's almost
Speaker 2: like a if you look at the impact of learning loss.
Speaker 2: There's some dispute about it, but it's really quite bad.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I still, you know, I agree that
Speaker 1: there have been mistakes and there have been bad things,
Speaker 1: but I do not think that they're equivalently bad, and
Speaker 1: I think that we have you know, sure, Biden being
Speaker 1: president right now is not ideal. But Trump, what he
Speaker 1: has done, what he has pledged to do, what he
Speaker 1: has shown himself capable of doing, is like a constant
Speaker 1: existential threat, right like his appointees to the judicial system,
Speaker 1: his appointees to the cabinet, which we've talked about, and
Speaker 1: continue it continuing, you know, continuing that trend, you know,
Speaker 1: like the the cashpitels of the world. You know, all
Speaker 1: all of these things are a big fuck you to democracy,
Speaker 1: constantly over and over and over, saying he's going to
Speaker 1: shut down media, you know, fake news, anything, he who
Speaker 1: anyone who criticizes him, and a lot of his you know,
Speaker 1: policies are aimed at basically trying to you know, trying
Speaker 1: to weaken democracy as much as possible. And he has
Speaker 1: also you know, doled out pardons too less than ideal people. Now,
Speaker 1: like I said, this does not excuse the fact, Like
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to excuse Biden, right, I think he
Speaker 1: needs to be held to account. But I think this
Speaker 1: was an awful decision executed in an awful way. As
Speaker 1: you said, this pardon could have been much better, right
Speaker 1: had he not constantly said I'm not going to pardon
Speaker 1: a hunter, had he just not lied about it, and
Speaker 1: had he like just owned it and been like, look like,
Speaker 1: I understand that I shouldn't be doing this, but I'm
Speaker 1: doing it anyway, Like I'm sorry, right, Like, that would
Speaker 1: have been very different. The way he did it was Trumpian.
Speaker 1: But the fact that we have this adjective Trumpian means
Speaker 1: that right that there is I think that we can't
Speaker 1: say like A equals B like these are two different things.
Speaker 1: And the Republican Party has repeatedly shown itself unwilling to
Speaker 1: stand up to Trump and basically trying to go into
Speaker 1: his mold instead, and I think that that's very frightening. Again,
Speaker 1: this does not mean we do not hold the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party to account. As you said at the beginning of
Speaker 1: this segment, they are held to a higher standard. They
Speaker 1: should be because they are trying to preserve democracy. But
Speaker 1: I do think we just want to be careful not
Speaker 1: to paint a false equivalency here.
Speaker 2: Are they trying to preserve democracy or is that like
Speaker 2: a sloganeering. I mean, they tried to get.
Speaker 1: What you said Okay, I'm giving you back your quote.
Speaker 2: I think intellectuals generally care about democracy, although there's also
Speaker 2: things like, you know, Democrats don't really talk very much
Speaker 2: about free speech anymore, Republicans talk about it hypocritically. You know,
Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean some of the COVID stuff.
Speaker 2: I mean, you had decisions that were made by public
Speaker 2: health agencies that had a lot of power that were
Speaker 2: not democratically elected, for example, And like, I don't know,
Speaker 2: I think that branding doesn't work particularly well if you
Speaker 2: look actually talked to swing voters and say who is
Speaker 2: a party of democracy? Then look, look what Trump did
Speaker 2: and trying to overturn the election in twenty twenty was
Speaker 2: very bad, and the fact that it's kind of been
Speaker 2: memory hold is really really bad. Right. But I just
Speaker 2: think the equilibrium where anything you do is held to
Speaker 2: this benchmark of like January sixth, and therefore anything you
Speaker 2: do is false equivalents, Like, I just where's that end?
Speaker 2: It ends in the Democratic Party behaving really badly and
Speaker 2: also losing elections.
Speaker 1: Frankly, well, well that's not what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying there is you are trying to draw
Speaker 1: false equivalence. That does not mean we don't have to
Speaker 1: hold Democrats to a high standard. Right, there needs to
Speaker 1: be changed. Both parties are rotting and there are there's
Speaker 1: horrible stuff happening right, Like our two party system is
Speaker 1: not working very well. And as you know, as I've
Speaker 1: said on this podcast before, I'm not a fan of
Speaker 1: the two party system. I never have been. I think
Speaker 1: that that is not a good way going about things.
Speaker 1: So I am all for you know, holding them to account, reforming,
Speaker 1: like trying to really question what's going what's going wrong.
Speaker 1: I just want to make sure that we're not saying, oh, well,
Speaker 1: Biden's now just as bad as Trump. He is not,
Speaker 1: and like, do not say that, I know you know
Speaker 1: that he is not. Don't don't do this for rhetorical purposes,
Speaker 1: like this is too important for like we're not doing
Speaker 1: a high school debate like this is this is actually
Speaker 1: like this is actually too important for rhetorical flourishes. I
Speaker 1: was a champion debate or I can rhetorically flourish too,
Speaker 1: And I'm choosing not to.
Speaker 2: Where's Biden ranked historically among the presidents? Let me bring
Speaker 2: up some historically.
Speaker 1: I don't know, Yeah, I don't know, not very high
Speaker 1: now in my mind, because I think that he has
Speaker 1: done made certain decisions. I think I would have ranked
Speaker 1: him much higher a year ago, right, I think that
Speaker 1: this last.
Speaker 2: Yer, he's a lot done. In the first two years
Speaker 2: Democrats had a relatively good mid term.
Speaker 1: I would have ranked Biden a lot higher just a
Speaker 1: year ago, because I think he got a lot done
Speaker 1: and he you know, he was he had a good
Speaker 1: presidency and then he made such shitty decisions in the
Speaker 1: last year that it's really my my ranking has plummeted.
Speaker 1: I can't give a ranking right now. I think it's
Speaker 1: always very it's ill advised to try to rank people
Speaker 1: in the moment, right You need you need a little
Speaker 1: bit of time, like you need you need a little
Speaker 1: bit of a of a window, a little bit of
Speaker 1: perspective to just kind of see how things play out,
Speaker 1: because you also can't see kind of the tail end
Speaker 1: of some decisions. Right Like, maybe this Hunter Biden pardon
Speaker 1: will end up like not really mattering, and maybe it
Speaker 1: will end up mattering a lot. Maybe the fact that
Speaker 1: he hasn't stepped down right now and hasn't made Kamayers
Speaker 1: the next president, first female president. Maybe it won't matter.
Speaker 1: Maybe it will end up mattering a lot, right, Like,
Speaker 1: maybe something is going to happen in the next four
Speaker 1: weeks that's going to make that really consequential. Maybe the
Speaker 1: fact that the Democrats lost is going to end up
Speaker 1: mattering a lot. Maybe it's going to end up mattering
Speaker 1: a little bit less. So I think that before we
Speaker 1: rank him, we just need to see how some of
Speaker 1: these things shake out and how they know not be
Speaker 1: in the emotional moment heat of the moment. But right now,
Speaker 1: I'm really pissed at Biden, and I you know, I
Speaker 1: think he's made some really really poor choices running for reelection.
Speaker 1: What he's doing right now, the Biden, the Hunter, Biden pardon.
Speaker 1: I'm not a very happy camper right now when it
Speaker 1: comes to Biden.
Speaker 2: By the way, this was not the expected outcome, right
Speaker 2: If you looked at polymarket, I think there was like
Speaker 2: a twenty five percent chance or something that Hunter was
Speaker 2: going to be pardon, and so this was like not
Speaker 2: like priced in. People kind of took the White House
Speaker 2: at its word. I don't know, I don't envy the
Speaker 2: job of the White House Press Secretary.
Speaker 1: No neither do I. Neither do I This is this
Speaker 1: is quite the mess that he's now embroiled everyone in right,
Speaker 1: because he's made a lot of people look like liars
Speaker 1: because a lot of people have said, no, we were
Speaker 1: this pardon is not happening. So on that lovely note,
Speaker 1: let's potentially take a let's take a break and uh
Speaker 1: and switch over to a much lighter topic of gift
Speaker 1: giving during the holidays. I'm so curious about this. I
Speaker 1: just I'm so interested in what your general approach to
Speaker 1: gift giving is. This is something I don't actually know
Speaker 1: about you. I've known you for a long time, but
Speaker 1: it's not like we constantly engage in gift exchanges. So
Speaker 1: how do you think about it?
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm a very good gift giver, Maria.
Speaker 1: Well, you your partner is. So for my birthday, your
Speaker 1: partner has given me incredibly thoughtful gifts from the two
Speaker 1: of you. So so thank you to.
Speaker 2: Him for Yeah, be in a long term relationship with
Speaker 2: someone who is good at giving gifts. Although with my
Speaker 2: can I say this, I'm kind of trying to predictive
Speaker 2: they'll be like relationship stress out of this. With with
Speaker 2: my partner, we tend not to give each other a
Speaker 2: lot of gifts. I'm not sure how we got into
Speaker 2: that equilibrium. I guess the gift of being with each
Speaker 2: other every day is a gift enough, and so we
Speaker 2: just kind of got out of the habit of like
Speaker 2: giving gifts. And yeah, I don't know, how about you
Speaker 2: and how about you and your husband.
Speaker 1: We do give gifts to each other, but we you know,
Speaker 1: we're not we're not big on like we don't celebrate
Speaker 1: Valentine's Day and kind of bullshit like that, Like, but
Speaker 1: we will give gifts to each other for you know,
Speaker 1: the holidays and for our birthdays. Those are basically the
Speaker 1: two times when we give gifts. And otherwise, you know,
Speaker 1: we like to do experiential things together, so like instead
Speaker 1: of like for an anniversary, instead of giving gifts, like
Speaker 1: will either like we'll do a trip, or we'll do
Speaker 1: a nice dinner or open a really nice bottle of wine,
Speaker 1: something that we can enjoy together. And sometimes we've agreed
Speaker 1: in the past not to give each other gifts and
Speaker 1: instead of a gift, we'll do X or Y, So
Speaker 1: we talk about that in advance. So I think that
Speaker 1: that's really nice and I actually think that experiences often
Speaker 1: make the best gifts.
Speaker 2: The other philosophical point I have is that I think
Speaker 2: if you're not giving an experience or something and one
Speaker 2: of their important qualification, you're not dealing with the person
Speaker 2: where they could really use like the extra income. Right.
Speaker 2: I mean, you should give a gift that's like a
Speaker 2: little bit something they wouldn't get for themselves. Right, it's
Speaker 2: a little bit in the offbeat or like slightly impractical zone. Right.
Speaker 2: You know, a couple of years ago, we bought my
Speaker 2: dad like a really nice new watch. It was like
Speaker 2: a little bit more on a watch that and these
Speaker 2: guy who's always worn to watch, right then he would
Speaker 2: spend on himself, right. Or even things like we bought
Speaker 2: my mom like a iPhone a couple of years ago.
Speaker 2: She's getting older and like you know, actually has lots
Speaker 2: of use for an iPhone if something bad happens or
Speaker 2: whatever else is cell phone, but she probably was not
Speaker 2: going to buy it for herself because it was too
Speaker 2: expensive and too much riham or roll to go to
Speaker 2: this tour and whatever else, and so things like that.
Speaker 2: I mean it's a little paternalistic, I guess ironically giving no.
Speaker 1: You know, I actually I think that the well let
Speaker 1: me before I say that, like, what's one of the
Speaker 1: most memorable, Like, what are the memorable memorable gifts that
Speaker 1: you've gotten other than experiences?
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I have it. I mean my when
Speaker 2: I was in Seattle for a book tour event, right,
Speaker 2: my like cousin gave me like a customized deck of
Speaker 2: like playing cards with family photos. Like that was a
Speaker 2: really thoughtful gift.
Speaker 1: It's amazing, Right, Yeah, that's amazing, and that I think
Speaker 1: shows something incredibly important. Right That gift shows thought, right,
Speaker 1: shows forethought, shows an interest and an understanding of what
Speaker 1: you do, of what you like, and doesn't cost a
Speaker 1: lot of money, right, Like don't give people cash, right, Like,
Speaker 1: if you think about this is why I like said
Speaker 1: the premise of gto Like you might think that, like
Speaker 1: optimally like just give people money and they can get
Speaker 1: exactly what they want. But I think that that actually
Speaker 1: goes against the spirit of like what what gift giving
Speaker 1: is all about, which is about paying attention to people,
Speaker 1: knowing people, kind of being thoughtful and as you said,
Speaker 1: something they wouldn't get for themselves, like something they don't
Speaker 1: know they want. I'm also very against gift lists, where
Speaker 1: like people you know, you ask people to tell you
Speaker 1: what they want, because like, you know, then then what's
Speaker 1: the point, right, Like I'd rather just not even exchange gifts.
Speaker 2: Might need to tell you I'm because I mean, no,
Speaker 2: you basically give people money, but with restrictions on how
Speaker 2: you can use it. You know, I guess there's some
Speaker 2: thoughtfulness put in, maybe if it's like some promotion or something,
Speaker 2: but for sure, Yeah.
Speaker 1: The one exception that I will give gift certificates to
Speaker 1: people too, is like I will give a get certificate
Speaker 1: to a massage at a spot where I know that
Speaker 1: they will never treat themselves to it, And I'm like, Okay,
Speaker 1: I want you to go and get a fucking two
Speaker 1: hour hotstone massage at this place that is amazing. You
Speaker 1: would never pay this amount of money like you deserve it,
Speaker 1: like you need a rest here you go. But that's
Speaker 1: also I think goes along with what you were saying.
Speaker 1: It's not something that they would give for themselves. And
Speaker 1: there's actually a lot of psychological study of gift giving
Speaker 1: and of how it works, like how it activates different
Speaker 1: parts of the brain, and it turns out that like
Speaker 1: we are, actually we get a lot more satisfaction out
Speaker 1: of kind of these acts of generosity than Russet prosody.
Speaker 1: It's not like a homoeconomicus type of thing, right. It
Speaker 1: actually like gives us more pleasure to give a gift
Speaker 1: that's someone you know that might not have the material
Speaker 1: value but that actually has kind of that attention spent
Speaker 1: to it. And we can even be generous too, straight
Speaker 1: Like we get a kick out of being generous.
Speaker 2: This is one thing that women are much better about
Speaker 2: than men, right, Like they send follow ups after you
Speaker 2: hang out. Right, I had a little hang out with
Speaker 2: my mail friend. You say, you send like a like
Speaker 2: a no saying, hey, a good time tonight. I'm like, wow,
Speaker 2: that's rare for that's rare for heterosexual men to do that.
Speaker 2: I'm prompted.
Speaker 1: I wasn't gonna ask, but you mentioned it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's nice.
Speaker 1: But no, those gestures actually they do matter, and I
Speaker 1: think that that does underpin a lot of kind of
Speaker 1: the psychological satisfaction and that sort of gift giving interaction.
Speaker 1: You've got your classic story, like I think, oh, Henry
Speaker 1: got the spirit of the thing, you know, the gift
Speaker 1: of the of the magic, his most famous story. You've
Speaker 1: read it. I'm assuming m oh, sorry, not trying to
Speaker 1: put you on the spot.
Speaker 2: When you assume, you make an ass of you and me.
Speaker 1: So I made an ass of you and me. It's
Speaker 1: a very famous story, very short. I think it's three
Speaker 1: pages long, something like that, three or four pages about
Speaker 1: young couple don't have a lot of money. He has
Speaker 1: a beautiful gold watch. It's his only good, nice possession.
Speaker 1: She has just this beautiful, luxurious hair, and so they
Speaker 1: want to give each other a gift, and she sells
Speaker 1: her hair to buy a chain for his watch, and
Speaker 1: he sells his watch to buy you know, these combs
Speaker 1: for her hair that she had admired that were beautiful,
Speaker 1: and so it's, you know, the gift of the magi.
Speaker 1: They can't actually neither one of them will ever be
Speaker 1: able to use their gifts. Well, she will because hair
Speaker 1: grows back. But it's kind of this beautiful story about
Speaker 1: kind of the intent of gift giving. All right, So
Speaker 1: let's just close with a gift giving lightning round. What's
Speaker 1: the best gift you've ever received from another poker player?
Speaker 2: You know, the one that comes to mind. I was
Speaker 2: doing like a charitable event poker tournament, right, and like
Speaker 2: I busted out and then Annie Duke had made the
Speaker 2: final table and she had to leave, so she's like, Nate,
Speaker 2: you got my seat now. So it was kind of
Speaker 2: it was kind of in the range between a gift,
Speaker 2: but it was a very nice gesture to do both
Speaker 2: because it showed she had some respect that I'd hopefully
Speaker 2: play my hand with honor. And you know, I tried
Speaker 2: to play aggressively. I tried to like play well, you know,
Speaker 2: had a huge I had a huge chip lead and
Speaker 2: then and then just ran really bad on all ends.
Speaker 2: So I finished third, and there was some threshold where
Speaker 2: you got some actually cool prize first and second, so
Speaker 2: I should have been looking at the bubble or poker
Speaker 2: player fans will know, right, basically, there was like a
Speaker 2: bubble for second place where you get like a cool
Speaker 2: award a gift. In the top two positions are like
Speaker 2: the same thing. I forget what it was, a plaque,
Speaker 2: r I know, but something that was worth playing for.
Speaker 2: And then third place you get like a gift bag,
Speaker 2: and like I should have played for second place. Basically
Speaker 2: that's a good gift.
Speaker 1: All the best gifts I've gotten from poker players have
Speaker 1: been experiences right where someone has treated me to a
Speaker 1: really memorable meal that I would never have otherwise been
Speaker 1: able to go to. Those are the things that I
Speaker 1: really you know, cherish and remember.
Speaker 2: Best gift for the raveriance. So if you've read my book,
Speaker 2: you know that the two typologies the village, which is
Speaker 2: like the East Coast establishment, and the river which is
Speaker 2: poker and gambling and VC and all these things. So
Speaker 2: the best gift for ravarian This is where I wish
Speaker 2: we had, like a sponsor from like a poker training
Speaker 2: company'd be like get twenty percent off on gto express
Speaker 2: dot com with Pasco Maria and Nate twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: That was a great pivot Nate to a company that
Speaker 1: does not actually exist. Well done. No free promotion if
Speaker 1: you want if you want free, if you want free promotion,
Speaker 1: this is not the place.
Speaker 2: Hey, I'll give you a free sports bin on Fanduels Shure,
Speaker 2: you probably don't want to. I'm not sure you want
Speaker 2: to do something like that and potentially hook somebody or whatever.
Speaker 2: But no, yeah, I do think like a poker train
Speaker 2: Like I think most of the best poker training materials
Speaker 2: now are are online. We're not going to go about
Speaker 2: recommending particular sites, but like, yeah, I mean giving someone
Speaker 2: because those training sites aren't cheap either, So if you
Speaker 2: can afford it, maybe something people wouldn't think about buying themselves,
Speaker 2: like a poker training course could be a good gift
Speaker 2: for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree with that. How about best gift
Speaker 1: for the villager? So you know, listeners of our show
Speaker 1: probably know at this point what the villages, But the
Speaker 1: villages you are your answer to the river, the kind
Speaker 1: of the establishment, right, the kind of the collegiate types
Speaker 1: of the world.
Speaker 2: Maybe like a gift certificate to sub stack. I don't
Speaker 2: think those things exist yet, but like, go read outside
Speaker 2: the village, read some heterodox yeah yeah, yeah, or maybe
Speaker 2: or maybe they're the one that needs, like to learn
Speaker 2: how to take risks. Maybe you just give them, Okay,
Speaker 2: you get I guess you can't like comp the casino
Speaker 2: or maybe you can't, right, Can you like give someone
Speaker 2: here's one hundred dollars to spend it Caesars or something?
Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe yeah, well, but if you're doing that,
Speaker 1: and I think the best gift for a ribeian would
Speaker 1: be not a poker course, but something that would that
Speaker 1: would actually like even them out. I would give them
Speaker 1: the like the Paris Review Interviews, which is one of
Speaker 1: my favorite gifts for people. It's a four volume set
Speaker 1: of interviews with some of the best writers and thinkers
Speaker 1: of the twentieth century. I think they learned a lot
Speaker 1: from that, so I would go in that direction. Let's
Speaker 1: even everyone out.
Speaker 2: How much time should you spend picking out a gift
Speaker 2: before you buy something and move on?
Speaker 1: I think it really depends, because you know, for the
Speaker 1: people who are kind of the closest to me, like I,
Speaker 1: it's one of these things where I'm constantly thinking about gifts,
Speaker 1: not on any conscious level, but like you pay attention
Speaker 1: to them, right, You pay attention to what they like,
Speaker 1: what they don't like, and so you kind of have ideas.
Speaker 1: It's not like all of a sudden I sit down
Speaker 1: and I'm like, Okay, this is what I want to get.
Speaker 1: But some people are really really difficult to shop for.
Speaker 1: Like my dad is. He'll appreciate everything, like he's always,
Speaker 1: you know, really grateful, but like he's a hard person
Speaker 1: to think of gifts for because he's someone who is
Speaker 1: not at all materialistic, and like, you know, he he
Speaker 1: appreciates things, but like he doesn't want anything, and he
Speaker 1: can be you know, it can be hard because I
Speaker 1: think everyone loves him very very much and wants to
Speaker 1: give him gifts that he'll really appreciate, and so you
Speaker 1: have to just kind of think, like, okay, what is something?
Speaker 1: So Like recently it was his seventieth birthday and we
Speaker 1: ended up kind of all of the kids got him
Speaker 1: a number of bottles of vintage port because he's a
Speaker 1: big port drinker from all the decades, and that was,
Speaker 1: you know, that was something that we had to we
Speaker 1: had to think for a while before we came up with.
Speaker 1: But you know, it's people who are not materialistic can
Speaker 1: be can be hard to shop for. All Right, Nate,
Speaker 1: I have another question for you. Who is the most
Speaker 1: important non obvious person to get a gift for, Like
Speaker 1: you're building super office gossip, the least scrupulous dealer at
Speaker 1: the wind Like, who's that? Who's someone who you think
Speaker 1: is not someone who you'd immediately think about.
Speaker 2: I was hoping you'd have a better I mean, we
Speaker 2: give we you know, we treat our door guy pretty
Speaker 2: well usually apart from that, Like, I don't know, maybe
Speaker 2: I'm inconsiderate and don't like tim No.
Speaker 1: I think that I think that we we definitely. We
Speaker 1: leave tips for everyone who works at the building, and
Speaker 1: we actually give a gift. So there's a guy who's
Speaker 1: in charge of like the receiving area that's like where
Speaker 1: all the packages go. And he's a very very important
Speaker 1: person because he could like bar entry for people, or
Speaker 1: he can like facilitate things for you a little bit,
Speaker 1: like you know, letting you use the service elevator, like
Speaker 1: slightly later than he's supposed to or slightly earlier, and like,
Speaker 1: you know, facilitate all of that process because like you know,
Speaker 1: everyone all of the contractors, like all deliveries, everything has
Speaker 1: to go through that service entry. Not food deliveries but
Speaker 1: like appliance deliveries or like big deliveries. And you know,
Speaker 1: so we know that he loves nuts because he had
Speaker 1: mentioned it at some point, so we give him like
Speaker 1: one of those huge baskets of like fruit and nut assortments,
Speaker 1: and he really appreciates that, And I think that he
Speaker 1: likes us more because of that. So I think that that's,
Speaker 1: you know, we we like to give him something that's
Speaker 1: not money to make him know that we that we
Speaker 1: appreciate him. So I think that, you know, those those
Speaker 1: types of people are really important and you want to
Speaker 1: give them special acknowledgment. After a quick break, we're going
Speaker 1: to be back.
Speaker 2: Regifting, yeah or nah?
Speaker 1: I absolutely I think that re gifting is totally fine
Speaker 1: depending on what it is, right Like, if someone gives
Speaker 1: you a gift that's like nice but not something you'll
Speaker 1: ever use, right, then give it to someone who will
Speaker 1: use it.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: If it's like a personal gift, then don't regift obviously,
Speaker 1: And if it's something like I've gotten things that are
Speaker 1: just like these are usually from like sort of family members,
Speaker 1: like you know, extended family, where you're like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: this is just so ugly. It's not even funny, right, Like,
Speaker 1: what am I going to do with this? Like, or
Speaker 1: it might not be ugly, but it's just so not
Speaker 1: my taste, right, Like, it's just not something that I
Speaker 1: would ever want anywhere in my house? What do I
Speaker 1: do with it? I don't want to give it to
Speaker 1: someone else because it's not reflective of my taste or
Speaker 1: what I would want. But I can't throw it out
Speaker 1: because I feel bad. And then I feel like there's
Speaker 1: like a statute of limitations on like how long you
Speaker 1: have to keep a thing before you can toss it,
Speaker 1: and I always I still feel a little bit bad
Speaker 1: throwing it out, but I have thrown out in the
Speaker 1: past because at some point you're like, okay, when does
Speaker 1: this just like that, there's a statute of limitations right
Speaker 1: on on how long you have to keep that gift.
Speaker 1: But I've definitely, especially if I'm open about it, I've
Speaker 1: regifted things like you know, if someone gives me something
Speaker 1: nice and I'm like, hey, like this is amazing, I
Speaker 1: already have one. Do you mind if I give it
Speaker 1: to my sister?
Speaker 2: Well, that is difficult, right because like in some sense
Speaker 2: of things that people will like, they probably have you know,
Speaker 2: s's tricky if you don't know somebody that will to
Speaker 2: avoid Like yeah, I mean, what's that there's fungible versus
Speaker 2: non fungible. I mean like if someone likes whiskey, then
Speaker 2: they're never going to complain about getting more whiskey, right
Speaker 2: Whereas like if they have a certain book, if they've
Speaker 2: already have a copy of On the Edge, The Order
Speaker 2: Risking Everything or The Biggest Bluff? Did that have a subtitle?
Speaker 2: What it's the.
Speaker 1: Subtitle How I Learned to pay attention, master myself and
Speaker 1: win good subtitle? Yeah?
Speaker 2: And although the author of those books might be happy
Speaker 2: if they already have a copy, then that can be
Speaker 2: tricky if you're trying to guess what's in their library.
Speaker 2: Books are probably in a tricky category there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there are some books that I have various
Speaker 1: copies of and various editions. But there are also books that,
Speaker 1: like I will gift to someone else, and I think
Speaker 1: that that's totally fine, and you never want to be
Speaker 1: that person. By the way, if you're listening to the show,
Speaker 1: don't be the gift giver who's like, hey, I haven't
Speaker 1: seen gift X around, Like what'd you do with? Like
Speaker 1: do not ask about your gifts? That is not the point,
Speaker 1: Like you have given the gift, Like that's it, right,
Speaker 1: Like do if someone offers feedback amazing if they don't, like,
Speaker 1: this is not the reason you gave a gift, right,
Speaker 1: That's why I also like get I get Matt when
Speaker 1: people are like when people expect thank you notes, like
Speaker 1: you know what, like thank you notes are really really nice,
Speaker 1: but like, don't put obligations on people, like, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't expect a thank you note, like, but there
Speaker 1: are people who just feel like everything needs a thank
Speaker 1: you note. I know someone who writes a thank you
Speaker 1: note to a thank you note, and I'm like, dude,
Speaker 1: like that, when does this end? Like when do we
Speaker 1: stop banking each other? You know, just just like smile Nate,
Speaker 1: do you ever engage in any sort of like a
Speaker 1: tit for tat strategy when you come for when when
Speaker 1: it comes to gift giving, like you know, with basically.
Speaker 2: The sterioration where basically we kind of very sporadic if
Speaker 2: we'll give gifts and things like and there's probably some
Speaker 2: tit for tat em.
Speaker 1: Right, Oh, you didn't give me a gift, So that's
Speaker 1: the opposite tip for test. What about what about like,
Speaker 1: you know, do you because I have like some of
Speaker 1: my closest friends, like I always exchange gifts with like
Speaker 1: material gifts, and then others like we we don't do that,
Speaker 1: and we'll like go out for dinner, right, like, well
Speaker 1: we'll do something like that as a gift.
Speaker 2: That's just a lot of regular platonic dinner dates. And
Speaker 2: there's certainly some conscientiousness about like the whole strategy about
Speaker 2: like who pays because you're trying to like assess, you know,
Speaker 2: if someone is way wealthier then but sometimes people want
Speaker 2: to pay, especially men, feel like if if you always
Speaker 2: pay right, so you kind of have some like equilibrium
Speaker 2: ware of like if you're the wealthier person and you're
Speaker 2: not like family or you're not like someone's former boss
Speaker 2: or something, right, then the equilibrium is like the richer
Speaker 2: person pays like eighty percent of the time, I think,
Speaker 2: or something like that. Probably, Yeah, well.
Speaker 1: I think that also, you know, I like exchanging dinners too,
Speaker 1: Like I think that there are lots of different ways
Speaker 1: for doing that. But yeah, it is interesting how different
Speaker 1: equilibriums will establish themselves in different situations. And I don't
Speaker 1: think that that's like a conscious tit for tat, even
Speaker 1: though with you and your partner maybe.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of strategy and relationships by the way.
Speaker 2: You know, there's a book I read by I believe
Speaker 2: Kevin Zolman about like a gto guy to parenting basically huh,
Speaker 2: where it's like, yeah, kids are quite strategic and you know,
Speaker 2: you have to bargain and it's repeated game and things
Speaker 2: like that, and I think there's I think there's something
Speaker 2: to that for many dimensions of relationship. Are there particularly
Speaker 2: nitty or degenerate gifts that you've ever received.
Speaker 1: Let's see, I don't know that those are hard questions
Speaker 1: for me to answer, Like what even is a nitty gift?
Speaker 1: Is a nitty gift? Like, how do we define that?
Speaker 1: Is it a cheap gift? Or is it or is
Speaker 1: it a like play it safe gift like a gift certificate? Right? Like,
Speaker 1: I think that both of those things are nitty.
Speaker 2: But like, I mean my family one time they gave
Speaker 2: out gifts of like the Iraq study Group report. I
Speaker 2: thought that was kind of a nitty gift.
Speaker 1: That's amazing.
Speaker 2: I love it, Yeah, I love it. Yeah?
Speaker 1: What about the most degen gift? Once again, how do
Speaker 1: we define that? Is it like ridiculously expensive splurgy or
Speaker 1: is it like one hundred bucks to spend at Caesar's,
Speaker 1: which is a very deja gift by the way, where
Speaker 1: here's like some slot credit again very You know.
Speaker 2: In college, I had a rave phase, and I think
Speaker 2: the statute of limitations on this has passed, so I
Speaker 2: can so anyway, So my friends and I went to
Speaker 2: like a rave called even further. I think it was
Speaker 2: in either Roal, Illinois maybe Wisconsin. Drive to get there.
Speaker 2: It's outdoors for a couple of days, right, and like.
Speaker 1: That seems like a good location for a rave And.
Speaker 2: My friend was going around trying to get drugs and uh,
Speaker 2: I don't know if sheould be telling the story, but
Speaker 2: I guess I'm halfway through, so I have to continue now.
Speaker 2: And this guy was tripping his balls off and gave
Speaker 2: my friend an entire sheet one hundred tabs of acid
Speaker 2: of LSD. WHOA, So that's pretty that's pretty degenerate. I
Speaker 2: would say, yeah.
Speaker 1: He probably regretted that once he was no longer tripping
Speaker 1: his balls off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I know, with the retail value in
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety eight or whatever is kind of my little yeah,
Speaker 2: but but yeah, that's that's kind of be the top
Speaker 2: d GM category for me.
Speaker 1: I can't top that night, I cannot top that. And
Speaker 1: on that note, may you all have a very pleasant
Speaker 1: gift giving experience this holiday season. And remember it's I
Speaker 1: know this is a cliche, but we've talked about in
Speaker 1: the past some cliches are good cliches and their cliches
Speaker 1: for a reason. And it's the thought that counts. Really
Speaker 1: is a good cliche, right, Like, it really is the
Speaker 1: thought that counts, And that would be my gto way
Speaker 1: of giving gifts.
Speaker 2: Maria, you and I will see each other next week
Speaker 2: and we'll literally see hopefully some of the listeners at
Speaker 2: the poker meetup, which again, Maria, what's the date.
Speaker 1: December eleventh, which is a Wednesday at noon.
Speaker 2: It's twenty twenty four, that's this year.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, at noon at Bellaggio Poker Room. Really excited
Speaker 1: and hope to see and meet some of you there.
Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach
Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM.
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me, Maria Kondikova.
Speaker 2: And Bobby Nate Silver.
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.
Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us
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