1 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. One of the reasons for wanting 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: to adjust policy rates higher is that if we do 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 1: n into trouble, there's room to ease. I think it's 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: clear that we should be effecting further eating for the 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: European TechCo banker, and we should probably be expected further 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 1: eating to the Bank of Japan. One of the concerns 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: expressed for markets is a lack of global growth, and 8 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: it really is showing up now and now. Put Bloomberg 9 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance and 10 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning, guy, Michael McKay at 11 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 1: seven am on Wall Street. It is three pm in Doha, 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: where this morning Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's two 13 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: largest crude producers, agreed to freeze output after talks. Right now, 14 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:51,200 Speaker 1: West Texas Intermedia up one and a half percent. Brent 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: crude thirty nine is up one and a half percent. 16 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: Is that enough to matter? Michael Cohen of Barkley is 17 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: at eight am. Is this all part of a wider 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: geopolitical deal on Syria? Gideon Rows of Foreign Affairs in 19 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: just Aboment and Campaign two thousand sixteen. Could it get 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: any uglier? We'll talk to NBC's Chuck Todd and Tom 21 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: over the weekend. The death of Supreme Court justice and 22 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: in Scalia certainly adding to the possibility for really ugly 23 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: ugly time on the campaign. Yeah, boarded things shift within 24 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: our political debate and then the markets. Mike, I know 25 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 1: you're gonna do an extended data check here, but uh, um, 26 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: all in all a jumble. Um. I guess the one 27 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: thing I note, Mike as you go into it is 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 1: yan Uh. Yen was stronger here this morning. Yen is 29 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: a little weaker at the moment. One two uh. The 30 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: use dollars about half percent stronger right now. So we 31 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: have had some changes in the last couple of hours. 32 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: German investor confidence fell to its lowest level since October 33 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: two thousand fourteen. E e W index at one, down 34 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: from ten point to uh. That has German stocks down. 35 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: The decks is off by forty nine points half a percent, 36 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: and it's weighing on the stock six hundred, which is 37 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: slightly uh negative. It is so small that I mean, 38 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: it's read on the screen, but we can't really give 39 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: you a number on it. It It so so uh minuscule. 40 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: CAC forty is up though by eleven points three tenths, 41 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: and the foots he's higher by thirty five six tenths. 42 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: And as Tom mentioned, US futures up significantly this morning. 43 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: SMP futures twenty five points higher one point four percent down, 44 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: futures two hundred and seven points higher one point three percent, 45 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: NASAC features seventy points higher, and that's a one point 46 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: eight percent gain on the day. Uh. We're looking at 47 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 1: the bond market and finding yields rising one point seven 48 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 1: eight percent for your tenure, one point to three for 49 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: your five year, and the two years up to seventy 50 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: two basis points right now. And as Tom mentioned, the 51 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: dollar stronger against the yen. It is uh little weaker, 52 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: all it unchanged against er and it's a little stronger 53 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: gets found twenty three. Uh. It is hard to see 54 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: Tom a crisis in today's numbers, but certainly has been 55 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: a bad start to the year, and Carl Weinberg, chief 56 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 1: economist and High Frequency Economics is, in his own words, 57 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: terrified about the prospects ahead, or at least he was 58 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: last week. Carl, do things still look so bad? Still terrified? Mike? Sorry? 59 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: What is it that has you under the bed at 60 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: this point? Draw me a picture of what you think 61 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: could happen. Well, let's see commodity prices have let's just 62 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: talk about what has happened alright. Commodity prices have collapsed. 63 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: Bond yields are down to about zero, interest rates or negative. 64 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: Stocks are on the way down. Industrial production contracted in 65 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: every major G seven and every G seven economy in December. 66 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: G d P growth pretty much stalled out pretty much everywhere. 67 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:01,119 Speaker 1: UM prices are going down. You know, how much more 68 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: bad news do you need to see before you open 69 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: your eyes and you say, Wow, there's a bigger problem 70 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: going on here than just a couple of bad markets, 71 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: a couple of bad reports. I look, Carl at the 72 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: global economy and I have to filter back into it 73 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: the American economy or a single bust chart on television, folks, 74 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: I'll put this chart all they gotta remake it up, 75 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 1: and I'll get it out on Bloomberg Radio Plus as well. 76 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: It's it's just amazing how US industrial production production acts global, Like, 77 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: how much do you pull the United States into your caution? 78 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: On Amy on World GDP, Well, tom My, colleague Jim 79 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 1: O'Sullivan is like Fed cherry yelling, thinking the joury is 80 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: still out on whether the US economy goes into a 81 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: recession or not. From this point of view, the key 82 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: factor for policy right now in the US is employment. 83 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: If the unemployment rate and then let's say, if employment 84 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: continues to grow at its two hundred and seventy thousand 85 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: pay US per month, well that's enough to keep the 86 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: unemployment right coming down, and that leads to wage pressures. Eventually, 87 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: the Fed has to continue acting, but it has to 88 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: slow down a lot to under a hundred thousand in 89 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: order for in order for the growth of the labor 90 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: market to slow by enough to assuage concerns about wage 91 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: tightening and inflation risks. So his eyes on the labor market. 92 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 1: Industry is one sector services or another sector that's doing better. 93 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: There are pluses and minuses all around the economy. It's 94 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: not a clear shot either way right now. Carol Imberg, 95 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: with its high frequency economics, we say good morning to 96 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: all of you. Is Michael McKean engined green in the 97 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: screen down futures up to ten Bloomberg Surveillance brought you 98 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 1: by Investco. Don't settle for average in your portfolio. To 99 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: invest go the right approach means investing with high conviction. 100 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,799 Speaker 1: Find out more at investco dot com slash high conviction. 101 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: Michael Carl, you have been calling for the last couple 102 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: of days in your in your notes for coordination among 103 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 1: the V seven G twenty countries. But what is it 104 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: that you would have coordinated? Emerging markets would love a 105 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: weeker dollar, but the Japanese and Europeans would hate a 106 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: weeker dollar. And no G four leader has the ability 107 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: to increase fiscal spending, or it appears the appetite to 108 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 1: do so. Well, you know, first of all, I think 109 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: it would be good for market sentiment for just the 110 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: governments to get together and to talk, and for people 111 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 1: to see that the governments are at least aware of 112 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: and recognize that there is a problem. I mean, you 113 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: look at the z W index this morning out of 114 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: Germany and investors those are investors and analysts who are 115 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: surveyed there and their confidences down the garbage. Can they 116 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: need to know that somebody is paying them attention? All right? 117 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: Could there be coordinated fiscal policy? Well, you're right, there 118 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 1: are certainly obstacles in Japan to be political obstacles in 119 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: the US, the UK has religious issues related to it. 120 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 1: I mean, there are a lot of problems to it, 121 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: but maybe it's time to reconsider those problems. And certainly 122 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 1: not even talking about the options that might be available 123 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: leaves the markets just hanging on their own without any 124 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 1: help with's. But well, first of all, there is a 125 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: meeting next week, um in Shanghai. But second of all, UM, 126 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: wouldn't that assume the markets are stupid in the sense 127 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: that everybody knows that Congress isn't going to pass any 128 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: fiscal help. Well, Mike, you know, I know you're old 129 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: enough to remember the Plaza Chord meeting, you know, and 130 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: everybody got together and came out of the room looking 131 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: groom and said, these are the emergency measures that we 132 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: have to do. And the US promised fiscal restraint, and 133 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: the rest of the world promised fiscal stimulus, and everybody 134 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: promised coordinating interest rates. Nothing happened, all right, but the 135 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: world economy improved as a result of it. So I 136 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: think that you know, there's some management involved that conject 137 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: above leadership. But Carl has somebody mentioned the other day 138 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: in folks, you know, we don't mean to make this 139 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: a history lesson, but sometimes there's lessons to be had. 140 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: A lot of people remember the Plaza re chord, carl 141 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: I would suggest that very few remember that it was 142 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 1: messed up, so they had to have a louver chord 143 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: in Paris afterwards to to readjust the recalibration that why 144 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: wouldn't that happen again, we're well in touching people do 145 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: dollar policy and then they go, oops, well, I think 146 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 1: you hit on the keywords. Therecome well intentioned people. Okay, 147 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: let's see some well intentions expressed by the leaders. Let's 148 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: see the leaders at least recognize that there is a problem, 149 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: that there might be a basis to reconsidering austerity, even 150 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 1: if they come back to the conclusion that austerity is 151 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: the only way to go. But certainly right now, with 152 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: unemployment as high as it is in Europe, the Japan's 153 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: economy going into the garbage can with world trade contracting fiftent. 154 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: I didn't even mention that when I was talking to 155 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: microsecond ago. You know, leaders have to step up to 156 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: the plate and say, Okay, there's a problem here, and 157 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: we're aware of it at least, and we're considering options 158 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 1: to fix it. That is certainly make the equity markets 159 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: do a lot better. Well, the equity markets, um, alright, 160 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: what everybody sees as the locus of the issue right now, Uh, 161 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: And they're higher than they have been for a couple 162 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: of days. Is it possible that much of what you're 163 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: talking about has just been a market over reaction and 164 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: we're now pulling out of this. I mean, maybe this 165 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: Saudi Russia deal, if even if it doesn't limit oil supplies, 166 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: at least puts the floor under prices and everybody starts 167 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: to feel better. Well, it's nice to hope that that's 168 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: the case. I mean, the equity markets are certainly one 169 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: locus of what's going on, and they certainly are calm now, 170 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: although they're down substantially from where they were, and they 171 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: don't seem to be coming back to me twenty six 172 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: basis point yields on ten year bunds or in year 173 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: zero yields on Japanese government bonds right, Uh, French yields 174 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: under seventy basis points. These help me that people are 175 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: expecting deflation through falling CPI s and and slowing core 176 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: CPI is tell me pretty much the same message. So 177 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: I'm of the view that there's a bigger sense of 178 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: anxiety out there that transcends the equity markets. And don't 179 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: forget about the commodity markets to where prices are down, 180 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: what for key commodities. I mean, these are not signed 181 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,839 Speaker 1: good times in there, not popping back as far as 182 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: I can tell. Carol Weinberg, thank you so much. He's 183 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: with high frequency Economics. Mike will do a lot of 184 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: charts today which really show the indeterminate nature of trend. 185 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: We've had a bounce, but in no way, and there's 186 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: been a lot of good emails and tweets on this 187 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: is well, no way do we have a reversal of 188 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,719 Speaker 1: trend technically depending on which technical set up. We'll talk 189 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: with Katie Stockton about technical trends and just incredibly well 190 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 1: timed to do that. Features up twenty six down, features 191 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 1: up to ten. If I got to look at one 192 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: thing on the screen, Euro'd rather yen went to strength 193 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 1: of one thirteen and change pull back a little bit 194 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: from that one fourteen point zero four now, but yen 195 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: strength through the morning dollar ruble with ruble weakness interesting 196 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 1: seventy seven point three five on the Russian ruble. This 197 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: our surveillance brought you by Westchester suber Up is a 198 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: Westchester super out dot com. Here's Michael Barr with the 199 00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 1: latest world of national headlines. Mike Tom, thank you very 200 00:10:59,920 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: mu much. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is predicting that 201 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 1: President Obama will nominate someone who has already been confirmed 202 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: by the Senate to replaced the late Supreme Corps Nesis 203 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: antonin Scalia. Clinton and Democratic rival Bernie Sanders At both 204 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: expressed outrage at the potential of a Republican led Senate 205 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: refusing to consider a nomination before the election. It is 206 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,719 Speaker 1: believed to be the first time the US government has 207 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: put a person on trial on terror charges related to 208 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: the Islamic State Group. Trial begins today and federal cording 209 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: Arizona for Abdul Malik Abdullah Kareem. He is accused of 210 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: being behind a foiled attack on a Prophet Muhammad cartoon 211 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: contest in Texas yesterday and suspected twister in Florida Panhandle 212 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: was in part of a large winter storm system that 213 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: slammed the eastern US. Officials say about ten homers were 214 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,559 Speaker 1: destroyed or damaged. Global News twenty four hours a day, 215 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: powered by our journalists. I'm Michael Barr, Tom Michael bar 216 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: I think so much. Stay with us, folks, Michael McKain, 217 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: Tom King, Worldwide Bloomberg Surveillance, Bloomberg Surveillance by your try State, 218 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: BMW centers, visit the online at try State, BMW dot 219 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: com and BMW. They make only one thing, the ultimate 220 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: driving machine. Global business news twenty four hours a day 221 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, the radio plus mobile LAP and 222 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: on your radio. This is a Roomberg Business flash and 223 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: I'm Karin Moscow. This updates brought to you by Eisener Amper. 224 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: Does your accountant do more than crunch numbers? Eisener Amper 225 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: understands the more their clients know, the better the outcome. 226 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: That's why they've created a personal tax guide free downloaded 227 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: eisener Emper dot Com. Slash Strategies a d T, a 228 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: provider of home security monitoring, agreed to be acquired for 229 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 1: about six point nine billion dollars by the private equity 230 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 1: firm Apollo Global Management European stocks. Meanwhile, the decks in 231 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: Germany anyway is over. This morning, US DOT index futures 232 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: are higher, with SNP EMNI futures up about twenty seven 233 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: points now. E Mini futures up two hundred seventeen and 234 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: naz doc e many futures up seven eight too. Dacks 235 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: in Germany's down four tenths per cent, about the CAT 236 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: in Paris and FT one are both up about half percent. 237 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 1: Ten year Treasury down nine thirty seconds, the yield one 238 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: point seven eight percent. Nimax screwed oil up one point 239 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: three percent or thirty six cents at a barrel. Comx 240 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: gold is down two percent or twenty five dollars forty 241 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 1: cents to twelve fourteen. Announced the euro a dollar eleven 242 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: fifty nine a yen one thirteen point nine eight. That's 243 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike, thanks so much, 244 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: Karen appreciate that. With a green on the screen. It's 245 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: an interesting market, I'll say the least um it was 246 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: the quiet Talk of Davos. There was one magazine that 247 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: disappeared off the shelves. It was Foreign Affairs magazine, Summary 248 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:55,719 Speaker 1: of Technological Innovation at a black cover and just vaporized 249 00:13:55,720 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: and disappeared in percolating beneath. That was the next issue 250 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: to come out. A lot of people talking about Gideon 251 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: Rose's effort. The world is flat surviving global growth, UH 252 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: surviving slow growth, I should say. From Foreign Affairs magazine, 253 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: Gideon Rose joins us at this morning, did Tom Friedman 254 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: call you looking for a royalty? You know, we thought 255 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 1: about that, and we thought that enough time has passed 256 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: that people wouldn't necessarily would see it as an homage 257 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 1: rather than a sea but it really but but seriously, 258 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: Freedman who owns the phrase, fine, and I like the 259 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: homage idea was on globalization. Your issues not on globalization. Right. 260 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: We're trying to think how to basically get people to 261 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: read about UH slowing economic growth, and so it's a 262 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: kind of depressing subject and it sounds wonky, and so 263 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: we thought that was a catchy way of UH. I 264 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: want to ask you about the oil dealer this morning, 265 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 1: and if is this maybe part of a wider geo 266 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: political deal or dance on Syria. The Russians agree to 267 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: a nominal deal which keeps the Saudi army out of Syria. 268 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: The Syrian the Saudi's in return, agreed to a nominal 269 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: deal on oil production. Neither side really amounts to anything, 270 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: but they have a sort of quiet status quo impact. 271 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: I think it would be nice if the world worked 272 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: like that, because it would allow us armchair strategists to 273 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: come up with all sorts of interesting, cool deals than 274 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: which we could solve problems. Unfortunately, in the real world, 275 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: I don't see that kind of linkage happening, and the 276 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: different countries, different sides of our policymaking tend not to 277 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: be as coordinated as they might because different actors and 278 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: interests are involved. So I don't think this necessarily says 279 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: anything about what's gonna happen in Syria. That's a separate track, 280 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: and they're they're unfortunately, are a lot of silos. What 281 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: about with oil prices? The Saudis described this as the 282 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 1: beginning of a process. Uh is this a process that 283 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: could actually have a result or is this more talk 284 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: to soothe the markets. You know, if the dinosaurs got 285 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: together and said, hey, we're on the verge of being extinct, 286 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: but let's span together and figure out how to stop 287 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: this meteor thing from coming. Uh, it wouldn't really make 288 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: a difference. Um. I think this is a temporary attempt 289 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 1: to hold back the waves that are that are coming. 290 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: Within the discussion, is the basic idea that you need 291 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: technological progress or you need you know, we all read 292 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: about this in our textbooks. Is the path to a 293 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 1: better growth a textbook path or is there something different 294 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: now that we need to consider. This is, in fact, 295 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: tom the single biggest question right now right which is 296 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 1: and one of the really notable things, is how many 297 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: serious economists, how many major Grade A thinkers, from Larry 298 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: Summers to Ben Bernanke to Paul Krugman too, can roll 299 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: go off, are saying, you know what, we can't just 300 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: assume that the last generation's answers are going to be 301 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: sufficient for the next generation. And so I think that 302 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: there's a growing consensus among some of the smartest observers 303 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: out there that we are in something of a new 304 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: era and the race is on to diagnose that accurately 305 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: and provide the appropriate new solutions, whether that's creative monetary 306 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: policy in various ways, whether that's new demand side UH 307 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 1: stimulation in various ways, from expansion and fiscal policy. It's 308 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,679 Speaker 1: clear that just the old answers aren't gonna work. What 309 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 1: is the risk that we do not come up with 310 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 1: an answer in time? Well, the risk is that the 311 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: problem gets worse, that everything slows down, and that has 312 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: spillover effects. You're seeing that politically in the US these days. Right, 313 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: with wage stagnation and the lower prospects for for people 314 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: who are the stagnant prospects for people over a generation 315 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: eventually catch up to politics, you get populist answers uh 316 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: that that caused uh, you know, political revolutions. And then 317 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: if you have regimes that are themselves weak uh and 318 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: not particularly resilient like China and Russia, long term slow 319 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: growth could be very dangerous to those regimes, which could 320 00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: in turn create uh, international consequences that are the or destabilizing. 321 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: So it's in everybody's interest to get growth moving again. 322 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: Interesting question, Uh, how do people view the economics profession 323 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 1: these days? And where I'm going with this is those 324 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: who are running for president. Suppose somebody does come up 325 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: with a good idea, is anybody going to listen? Uh, 326 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: that's a very good question from the campaign so far. Uh. 327 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: Certainly on the Republican side, it doesn't seem like technocratic 328 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: wisdom or serious policy discussion is playing any role at all. 329 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: On the Democratic side, there's some of that, but uh, 330 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: massive promises to make everything better with a wave of 331 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 1: a wand also seemed to be carrying the day. So 332 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: one can only hope that after the campaign, whoever gets 333 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: in will behave in a more uh sound, technocratic way 334 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 1: than anybody is doing on the campaign. Getting you mentioned 335 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: earlier in the morning, and I guess it's the question 336 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: that everybody comes back to. Is infrastructure. It can be 337 00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 1: global infrastructure, it can be national infrastructure, be local infrastructure. 338 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: Everybody knows a rusted bridge down the road. Why is 339 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 1: this debate so hard? You know, it is a mystery. 340 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: Any American who has traveled abroad in the last several years, 341 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 1: you could ask them, is there any airport you went 342 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 1: to abroad in a major country that wasn't nicer than 343 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: the one you left in the US? Certainly if you 344 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: left out of Kennedy or you know, anywhere in New York, 345 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: and the answer is certainly gonna be yes, It's always 346 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: nicer abroad. Why are our airports so crappy? It wasn't 347 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: always the case? Um? And and why especially with interest 348 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: rates so low demand uh, you know, low demand, this 349 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 1: would be the time for the government to spend more 350 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 1: on infrastructure. We're passing on a massive deferred maintenance burden 351 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: the next generation. It's madness, but politically it doesn't seem 352 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: to have any real play. Congratulations on Foreign Affairs Magazine. 353 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: I'll do a lot with this folks in the coming month. 354 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: Really can't say enough about a thoughtful effort. Must read 355 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: Stay where us with the futures up six Bloomberg Surveillance. 356 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance brought you by your Mercedes Benz Tri State Dealer. 357 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: When it comes to winter elements, put your best four 358 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: wheels forward with Mercedes Ben's Formatic all wheel Drive. Visit 359 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: your Mercedes Ben's Tri State dealer for a test drive today. 360 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh Rio to Washington, 361 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg Dwell Unders to San Francisco, 362 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the Country Series Exam Channel one ninety and 363 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg dot Com. 364 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveilance. Good morning, seven thirty on Wall Street. 365 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 1: I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keane. Major reversal in 366 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: stocks from last week, SMP doll and as DAK Future 367 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 1: is all significantly higher at the moment. UH. Some of 368 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: the corporate news the helping drive that Volkswagen's diesel emissions 369 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: cheating scandal weighing on the carmaker's European market share for 370 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 1: a fifth consecutive month. Deliveries drop in Germany and the UK. 371 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: Vodafone Group and billionaire John Malone's Liberty Global agreeing to 372 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: combine their businesses in the Netherlands, joining forces to challenge 373 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 1: Royal KPN and Deutsche Telecom, and Apollo Global Management nearing 374 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: a deal to buy home security company a d T. 375 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: According to The Wall Street Journal. Will keep an eye 376 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: on those stories as the day develops. In the meantime, 377 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:30,959 Speaker 1: let's check out with Michael Barr and get the latest 378 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: world and national headliness by thank Thank you very much. 379 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 1: Russia is rejecting claims that it's warplanes struck a hospital 380 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: in northern Syria, killing nine people. A spokesman for President 381 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin says this is another case of those who 382 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: make such accusations against Russia being unable to back up 383 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: their claims. Frances Foreign Minister says attacks like the one 384 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: on the hospital could constitute war crimes. Today is the 385 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: second and last day of the summit with leaders of 386 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 1: South Asian nations in California. Eaters will focus today on 387 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 1: security issues. Last night, President Obama at the summon Rancho 388 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: Mirage addressed another big concern in Southeast Asia, as we 389 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: were reminded again by the attack in Jakarta last month. 390 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: The scourge of terrorism demands that we stay vigilant, share 391 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: more information, and work cooperatively to protect our people. There's 392 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 1: tough talk from South Korea. The president is warning North 393 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: Korea that it faces collapse unless it abandons its nuclear program. 394 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 1: She defended last week's move to shut down an industrial 395 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,479 Speaker 1: park that was jointly run by North and South Korea. 396 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: The World Health Organization says it might be necessary to 397 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:43,120 Speaker 1: use controversial methods like genetically modified mosquitoes to wipe out 398 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: the Zeka virus. Global News twenty four hours a day, 399 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 1: powered by our two journalists and more than a hundred 400 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 1: fifty news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael bar Like, 401 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Ray Katina Auto 402 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: Group Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, which on stash Our John 403 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 1: all right, Mike nice thought this time of years, Spring 404 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: training Yankees pictures and catchers with port to Tampa Thursday 405 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 1: and the Mets gathering Port St. Lucy starting tomorrow. Matt 406 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: Harvey arrived yesterday. He's not eligible to leave New York 407 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: to be a free agency until after the eighteen season, 408 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 1: but his agent is Scott Boris, who often steers his 409 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: clients towards the open market, and the feeling has always 410 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: been Harvey could be the one Met who would leave, 411 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: he said. However, yesterday he won't rule out signing a 412 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 1: long term extension. Mets g M Sandy Alderston says they 413 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 1: could start talking during spring training. The Arts Lavalak injury, 414 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 1: the Islanders have turned to Thomas Gryson goal He has 415 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: come through. Yesterday in Brooklyn is fifth straight went four 416 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: one over Detroit, the Isles of one four the last 417 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: five fourth straight at home college basketball. Another went for 418 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: Monmouth twenty second of the season, seventy seventy over Manhattan. 419 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: Huxell host Iona Friday ten o'clock in a battle of 420 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: the top two in the MAC. The Gales beat Prinipiac 421 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: fifty nine Battle of Brooklyn to l i U eight 422 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: two sixty seven over St. Francis. The word is the 423 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,440 Speaker 1: Nets will name a new general manager sometime this week. 424 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: That the finals down to three. B Bloomberg NBC Sports upthing. 425 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: I'm John Stah, Thank you John. Bloomberg surveillance correction. It 426 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: has been announced now a d T will be acquired 427 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:16,359 Speaker 1: by Apollo Global Affiliates for share is the price for 428 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 1: that so ad T Apolo acquired by Apollo. SMP futures 429 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: up by twenty six points now one point four percent. 430 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. You are listening to Bloomberg Radio worldwide. 431 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Bloomberg Surveillance. I might comming key along 432 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 1: with Tom Keane. It is a green on the screen day. 433 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 1: Quite a reversal from much of what we saw last week, 434 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: more like Friday and what we saw in Europe and 435 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: Asia yesterday. SMP future is now up by twenty six 436 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: points one point four percent, one point three rise for 437 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 1: Dow E meaning futures. They're up two hundred and fourteen points. 438 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: Nasdacimmnis seventy two points higher right now one point eight percent, 439 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: and in Europe the stock six hundred is up by 440 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: a tenth of eight percent. Gold add one thousand, two 441 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: hundred twelve dollars and eighty cents is down by twenty 442 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: six dollars and seventy cents on the day time now 443 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: for the Bloomberg n j I T STEM Report, brought 444 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 1: to you by the New Jersey Institute of Technology, partnering 445 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 1: with government and industry to apply the university's world class 446 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 1: research assets to innovate and spur economic growth. Learn more 447 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: at n j I T dot. E d U here 448 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: is well. We welcome back, Bob, thank you, and Michael. 449 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 1: Here's what's making news in science, technology, engineering and math. 450 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 1: And I've got a deal for you, Michael. I know 451 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,159 Speaker 1: you'd like to have your own chestil you'd like to 452 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,160 Speaker 1: have your own testa model as one of those high 453 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,679 Speaker 1: performance all electric sedans, And how does this sound? I 454 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: can steer you to one this spring for five hundred 455 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: bucks all in. I'll take that. Okay, this is the 456 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: only kind of test that I can afford. It's the 457 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 1: Tesla Model S for kids, and Gadget reports the carmakers 458 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 1: teaming up with Elon Muskin Company for this realistic, downsized 459 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: version for younger drivers. And we're younger right. Yes, it 460 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: does incorporate lithium ion battery technology recharges and as little 461 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: as three hours for five hundred dollars. This is not 462 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: your usual kitty car. It's supposed to have working headlights, 463 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 1: standard modelsque paint schemes, and get this a sound system 464 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 1: to feed in the tunes of your mobile device. And 465 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: what kid doesn't have their own mobile device these days? Okay, 466 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: full disclosure. Two speeds tops out at three and six 467 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: miles per hour and that's this morning's Bloomberg n G 468 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: I T STEM reports. So you buy one of these, Michael, 469 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,159 Speaker 1: and you use the sound system to play the rolling Stones. 470 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: You can't always get what you want. That would be 471 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: my life. Um. Katie Stockton has a couple of kids. 472 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 1: She's a chief technical analyst at bt I G Global. 473 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 1: And Katie, you you're in the market for a toy Tesla. 474 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,159 Speaker 1: We already got one a day, John dear ones for 475 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:07,440 Speaker 1: Christmas kids, writing around the house, digging up the yard. Uh. 476 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: You were writing over the weekend, relatively optimistic from a 477 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: technical point of view about the outlook for US stocks. 478 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: You look at what's happening on the screen this morning, 479 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: I would assume that optimism holds. At this point. We're 480 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: going to see some sort of relief rally, that's right. 481 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 1: So the optimism is really only short term in nature, 482 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: and I don't want to get too caught up in 483 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: the short term, because the intermediate term still looks somewhat 484 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: risky to me. But we are seeing gaps up around 485 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: the world this morning, and that's a positive from a 486 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: short term perspective. You see momentum turning a bit, and 487 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: there is upside to resistance levels for the SMP five 488 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 1: index and beyond. We also did see last week and 489 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: signs of what I call short term downside exhaustion basically 490 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: oversold readings in our indicators that we don't often see 491 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: at these extremes. So that does support a bounce in 492 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: the next one to two weeks, but we have to 493 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 1: keep that within the framework of all of the breakdowns 494 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 1: that preceded them, So the bounce occurs within the framework 495 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: of a downtrend for most of the major industries closed 496 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,199 Speaker 1: on Friday in eighteen sixty seventy eight. What's resistance going up. 497 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 1: It's around nineteen fifties, so just just over four higher 498 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,479 Speaker 1: from current level. So it looks like we'll make some 499 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: progress towards that at this this morning or today um. 500 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 1: And however, I do believe that we could stall at 501 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 1: or below that level, leaving another lower high on the 502 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 1: chart as intermediate term momentum takes hold it again on 503 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,680 Speaker 1: the down side. Now, I noticed when you were writing 504 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 1: your your Stockton on Stocks note over the weekend that 505 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: you're suggesting maybe investors want to take down exposure because 506 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: this isn't going to last. As you said, that's right, 507 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: So it's it's a momentum story. And really the rotation 508 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 1: that we've seen recently, starting at the beginning of the year, 509 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: has been reliably dissensive. We've seen rotation, of course into 510 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 1: the staple sector, into utilities and too value versus growth, 511 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 1: and these things have been very reliable to the point 512 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: where I think they're probably going to be sustained beyond 513 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: the near term. So with that in mind, i'd probably 514 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: be a better buyer or something like gold. What are 515 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: the charts tell you about gold? Golden gapped up last 516 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 1: week on one of my weekly charts, so that's a 517 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 1: positive development from an intermediate term perspective. It basically has 518 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 1: an unconfirmed breakout. So if we see some follow through 519 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: in the next week or two, we'll see what I 520 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: would call a bullish reversal of the down tram that's 521 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: been in force for years. At the stage. For those 522 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: of us who aren't regular chartists, how long does a 523 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: move have to hold? Because you know gold gapped up, 524 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 1: it's certainly gapping down today right now. Yeah, So so 525 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 1: we are seeing a pullback, of course, as the markets 526 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 1: rally or as equities rally. And yet if we see 527 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 1: gold closed this Friday above my level is eleven nine 528 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: dollars per ounce, So that's sort of my threshold in 529 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: terms of resistance. If we see another weekly closed above 530 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: that level, that for me would mean confirmation of the breakout. 531 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 1: And it's really a matter of preference, but I would 532 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: recommend investors always wait for some kind of confirmation more 533 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 1: than just a day, more than just a week. At times. 534 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: Let me ask you about oil. I got about thirty 535 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 1: seconds left. We can come back and talk about it 536 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 1: some more. But obviously the news this morning in both 537 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 1: West Texas and Brand up by two. Well, when you 538 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 1: look at oil, it's it's obviously in a long term 539 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 1: down trend, and that doesn't bode well for the equity market, 540 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 1: of course, with the correlations that we've seen recently. And 541 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 1: yet as it's come down, it's actually done so with 542 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 1: less downside momentum. And again you have some signs of 543 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: short term downside exhaustion. So I'm on the lookout for 544 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: a basing base in crude oil, but I'm far from 545 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: having enough confidence to add countertrend positions here. All right, 546 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: let's follow up on that in just a moment. If 547 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: you can stand by, Katie, We're gonna take a quick 548 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: break and come back, uh talk more about oil and 549 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 1: other chart information. She's chief technical and list at bt 550 00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:04,480 Speaker 1: I G Securities, West Texas Intermediate thirty thirteen right now 551 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 1: up two point three Brent at thirty four ten is 552 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: up to point one percent. Stocks overall higher when the 553 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 1: S and P futures up by one point four percent 554 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: this morning. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio worldwide. 555 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: Bloombergs anvounce is brought to you by Sector Spider et 556 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 1: F y by a single stock when you can invest 557 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 1: in the entire sector of visit Sector spdrs dot com 558 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 1: or called one six Sector et F Bloombal Business News 559 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the 560 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: Radio plus mobile app, and on your radio. This is 561 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm tearing Moscow. This update 562 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 1: is brought to you by American Arbitration Association business disputes 563 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 1: are inevitable, resolve faster with the American Arbitration Association, the 564 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: global leader and alternative dispute resolution for over eighty five years. 565 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: Learn more at a d r dot org. Us Dock 566 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 1: Index futures are rising this morning, signaling equities will climb 567 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,320 Speaker 1: for a second day as trading resumes after the holiday. 568 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: We check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 569 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 1: Al Bloomberg SNP EVENI futures of twenty six points, DOWI 570 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 1: mini futures of two hundred twelve, naz DOCU mini futures 571 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,479 Speaker 1: of seventy one. The decks in Germany's down half percent. 572 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 1: Ten year treasury down eight thirty seconds, the yield one 573 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 1: point seven seven percent yield on the two year point 574 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 1: seven zero percent. NIMEX Scrude oil is up two point 575 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 1: three percent of sixty seven cents and thirty dollars twelve 576 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 1: cents of barrel comes. Gold is down about two percent 577 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 1: on twenty four dollars ten cents to twelve fifteen fifty 578 00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: and ounce. The euro A dollar eleven sixty six. The 579 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 1: ends at one thirteen point nine zero. A d T 580 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 1: is up more than fifty two percent this morning, the 581 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: provider of home security monitoring agreeing to be acquired for 582 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: about six point nine billion dollars by the private equity 583 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 1: firm Apollo Global Management. Goldman Sacks is up two point 584 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 1: four percent this more. Morgan Stanley up more than three 585 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,480 Speaker 1: percent JP Morgan Chase raising its rating on Goldman to 586 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 1: overweight from underweight and raise Morgan Stanley to overweight from neutral. 587 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: And it's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen, 588 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: thanks so much. Good morning everyone, Bloomberg Surveillance. Michael McKee 589 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 1: and Tom Keane with us Katie Stockton. As we look 590 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 1: at charts and all the rest of it it is out there, Katie, 591 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: something is percolating, which drives me nuts. It was one 592 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: of the first reasons I had first gray hairs, this 593 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,959 Speaker 1: out of John Maggie who was ageless and timeless and 594 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:37,960 Speaker 1: technical analysis. The dreaded double bottom. There are double bottoms. 595 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 1: Every time there's it's like it's like a beer pong thing. 596 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 1: Michael McKee. Every time somebody mentions double bottom, you have 597 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 1: a double old fashioned Um. I mean, Katie, you gotta 598 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,200 Speaker 1: help me here with a double bottom before we let 599 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,720 Speaker 1: you go do you believe in this malarkey? Well, a 600 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: double bottom is actually a bullish formation, believe it or not, 601 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 1: despite the name, UM, and the double tops are much 602 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 1: more common in this environment right now. So if you 603 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: look back over the last year or so, you see 604 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,240 Speaker 1: a lot more double tops. And really these formations of 605 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,439 Speaker 1: which so many of them have these awful names, they're 606 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: really derived from the concepts of support and resistance. Support 607 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 1: being potential areas of buying pressure, resistance potential areas of 608 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 1: selling pressure. And this comes from behavioral finance, from market psychology, 609 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,479 Speaker 1: which really doesn't change. So these double bottom formations would 610 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,879 Speaker 1: be a successful test of support, and a double top 611 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 1: formation would be an unsuccessful test of resistance, so a 612 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 1: failed breakout essentially. Katie Stockton, thanks for being with us 613 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 1: today from bt I g U Technical Analysis and nobody 614 00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 1: does it better. Um. You will watch Tom's double tops 615 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 1: and double bottoms and he's gray hairs, getting gray hairs 616 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 1: on the campaign trail. Chuck Todd, host of NBC S 617 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: Meets Pressed, you can here at eleven o'clock and three 618 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:59,719 Speaker 1: o'clock here on Bloomberg Radio every weekend every Sunday when 619 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 1: meets Price. Here's chuck. If it's not one thing, it's another. 620 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,279 Speaker 1: And now we have another twist in the race. The 621 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 1: Supreme Court has an opening, and we have um the 622 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,360 Speaker 1: political conflict over that well, as if we didn't need 623 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: to put the stakes any higher on the twenty election. 624 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,799 Speaker 1: And let's assume, let's assume the president doesn't UM get 625 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,719 Speaker 1: his nominees through. That is some that is something else 626 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,279 Speaker 1: that's on the ballot in November. Direction of the Supreme Court, 627 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,640 Speaker 1: the presidency, the U. S. Senate, UM. And I'm sorry, 628 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: if I were going to be the next president, the 629 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:32,719 Speaker 1: last thing I would want is my first hundred days 630 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,600 Speaker 1: to be dominated by screw report fights. UM. So I 631 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,399 Speaker 1: think these presidential candidates will will say what they say 632 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 1: publicly secretly they should. It is UH talked about a 633 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,319 Speaker 1: way to basically screw up any other hopes of having 634 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,840 Speaker 1: an agenda. UM is waiting for that fight to happen, 635 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,840 Speaker 1: UM in your first hundred days. But I have to 636 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:54,799 Speaker 1: tell you, I think this is UM. This is could 637 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,759 Speaker 1: be the issue that finally breaks the U. S. Sent 638 00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:58,840 Speaker 1: that finally gets us to a point where it's no 639 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 1: longer a functioning body. M. I don't know, I don't 640 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,400 Speaker 1: see a peaceful pass forward in the short term. Here's 641 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: what occurred to me the same I had the same thought. 642 00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,719 Speaker 1: But then I thought, Um, we have an electorate that 643 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 1: is met as hell and won't take it anymore and 644 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 1: is willing to support someone like Donald Trump. Are they 645 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,280 Speaker 1: willing to do anything about the Senate and or House? 646 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 1: I don't know. I think there's going to be I 647 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 1: think that Reid and McConnell here are going to be 648 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,719 Speaker 1: chesting the patients at the club. At what point do 649 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 1: they start screaming enough is enough? This is ridiculous that 650 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 1: you can't get into anything anymore. Do you realized that 651 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:48,879 Speaker 1: Anthony's kalia was was confirmed and nothing that was just okay? 652 00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 1: Life hasn't changed that much. Um, yes, it was just 653 00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 1: before the board fight, but even Anthony Kennedy was an 654 00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:01,400 Speaker 1: unanimous selection post board. Um, we we have where we 655 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:06,720 Speaker 1: have gone now where every every fight is sort of 656 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 1: you know, the end of the Republic is here if 657 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,200 Speaker 1: you don't vote a certain way. Um, that's how we 658 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,920 Speaker 1: get to this point. Forty years ago, September of Night, Warrenburger. 659 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,920 Speaker 1: This is out of Bob Woods Woodwards Magisterial the Brethren 660 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 1: in a country like ours. No public institution or the 661 00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,960 Speaker 1: people who operated can be above the public debate. How 662 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:31,440 Speaker 1: does the president, within the Washington Politics Act behave or 663 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:35,440 Speaker 1: drive forward his considered view that people agree or disagree in. 664 00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 1: How does he do that with this institution, the Supreme Court, 665 00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,280 Speaker 1: given the public debate? Now, what what do you look 666 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 1: for from President Obama? Well, I'll be curious. I think 667 00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,879 Speaker 1: he's got he's got a couple of choices here. Republicans 668 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: gave him a digraph by deciding by declaring McConnell declaring 669 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,839 Speaker 1: he wouldn't even hold hearings and that they wouldn't even 670 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,799 Speaker 1: consider anybody he nominated. So it gave if he gave 671 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 1: Obama the high ground, the question is what he's gonna 672 00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: do with that high Nominate a partisan warrior and have 673 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,720 Speaker 1: a and use it to rally the base. Nominate somebody 674 00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,560 Speaker 1: he knows can't get confirmed but excites the base and 675 00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,359 Speaker 1: excites the last. Or does he put it put up 676 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,920 Speaker 1: somebody who maybe in a Democrat if he had a 677 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 1: Democratic Senate, he wouldn't nominate, but somebody more moderate, somebody 678 00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 1: was with some republic what's your respect? That beautifully, chuck tid, 679 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: But what's your respect. I think six months ago he 680 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:34,120 Speaker 1: would have done the Republican I don't know. I think, look, 681 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 1: the smarter play is to go with the you know, 682 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,680 Speaker 1: find the more moderate. This guy, Marrick Garland, he's sixty three. 683 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,359 Speaker 1: You're not looking for somebody who's in its forties. You're 684 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,200 Speaker 1: not making a generational sleeping change. He's somebody to get 685 00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:50,680 Speaker 1: Republican support. Everybody in the court respects him. He's considered 686 00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:55,520 Speaker 1: a moderate Democrat for his views. That would be in 687 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,640 Speaker 1: the you know, in the old school way of doing 688 00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 1: Supreme Court justices, where you have one in the Senate 689 00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,759 Speaker 1: and the opposite party in the White House. He would 690 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,960 Speaker 1: have been the type of person you would have gotten. Um, 691 00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,760 Speaker 1: that's why you got the Anthony Kennedy for Anthony Kennedy 692 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,920 Speaker 1: was confirmed by Democratic Senate from a Republican president. Shocking. 693 00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,440 Speaker 1: He turns out he's a swing vote right, he's a 694 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,239 Speaker 1: center right vote. So this would be a center left person. 695 00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:22,040 Speaker 1: That's the that's the normal way our probity work. I 696 00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,399 Speaker 1: don't know if Obama will do that. I think it's 697 00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,600 Speaker 1: there's a chance that he goes Parson Warrior here. Well, 698 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,680 Speaker 1: the question I have is, um, well, it's It's sort 699 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: of a two part question, Chuck. One is who on 700 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:38,400 Speaker 1: the campaign trail is most likely to benefit from the 701 00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:42,880 Speaker 1: issue coming up. But second, you're gonna be giving me 702 00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,239 Speaker 1: an answer based on your own model of campaigns. We 703 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,720 Speaker 1: talked a lot about financial models being broken these days. 704 00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,440 Speaker 1: Are our political models broken? Do you have a lot 705 00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,759 Speaker 1: of confidence in what you're able to tell me? Well? 706 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 1: I was fair enough, fair point. Look, I think the 707 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,759 Speaker 1: person that helps the most of said Cruise, Um, this 708 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 1: is his voters care the most, people that are inclined 709 00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 1: to support him, care the most about their judiciary and 710 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,680 Speaker 1: care about judges. Um, so this is in his wheelhouse. 711 00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,279 Speaker 1: Uh so. And and with the state's coming up, the 712 00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:18,360 Speaker 1: Southern States, the Supreme Court is is is something that 713 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 1: is used to to will up the base down on 714 00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,640 Speaker 1: the South. So I think short term it has a 715 00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 1: chance to benefit Cruise more than anybody else. I think 716 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,600 Speaker 1: that's why Cruiz, he's the first cannon that they advertise 717 00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:31,359 Speaker 1: on it. They certainly think this benefits them, So we'll see. Um, 718 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,400 Speaker 1: But you're right. I mean, look, Donald Trump has violated 719 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,760 Speaker 1: every every rule that we thought mattered in American politics today, 720 00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,799 Speaker 1: and he's still on top of the polls, so um, 721 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 1: you know, I think he's rolling the dice with this 722 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,560 Speaker 1: Bush not a leathern criticism, but you know, unless somebody 723 00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,319 Speaker 1: follows up and attacks him for it, he might he 724 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,200 Speaker 1: might know whether the storms checked out. Thank you so much, 725 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,440 Speaker 1: greatly appreciated, Chuck Shod moderator for me the Press. You 726 00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 1: can see it on NBC Sunday morning. Here it on 727 00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:03,279 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Uh Sunday afternoon as well. Just a very 728 00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:07,080 Speaker 1: very good common boy. Did things change one late at night? 729 00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,560 Speaker 1: You know, one interesting question too for President Obama is 730 00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 1: whom does he get who will accept the nomination knowing 731 00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 1: that he may or most likely will not get a 732 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:22,280 Speaker 1: vote because there's no nothing binding on the next president 733 00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,719 Speaker 1: that they would renominate this person. And then if you've 734 00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,520 Speaker 1: been turned down, does that close you off from the 735 00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,120 Speaker 1: Supreme Court in the future. So he may have to 736 00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,960 Speaker 1: have trouble finding somebody who's willing to be the sacrificial 737 00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:39,360 Speaker 1: lamp even you know. Not related to this discussion is 738 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,200 Speaker 1: a little bit of percolation that with the democratic son 739 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:48,920 Speaker 1: democratic president President Obama himself, I'll taft would be nominated 740 00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,400 Speaker 1: for the supremea suspect you would find that one almost 741 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:56,200 Speaker 1: impossible to get through UM the Republicans even in the minority. 742 00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,320 Speaker 1: If the Republicans with a minority, they would not approve 743 00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:01,960 Speaker 1: that this is there's something to think about as we 744 00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,480 Speaker 1: moved to the first Tuesday in November. Don't forget Bloomberg 745 00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:08,080 Speaker 1: politics and with all due respect with their coverage, UH 746 00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:10,719 Speaker 1: along the I don't even know where Helper and Heilman are. 747 00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:12,360 Speaker 1: One of them is in Nevada maybe, And you know 748 00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,480 Speaker 1: there's one of them filling out their application for the 749 00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,560 Speaker 1: Supreme Court. Yeah, well, well they'll do. They'll keep them 750 00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:21,000 Speaker 1: occupied for ages. Futures up twenty four chal features up 751 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,480 Speaker 1: two oh one. I'm watching a yen one thirteen eighty 752 00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,400 Speaker 1: eight stronger yen. It pulled back to one fourteen level 753 00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,879 Speaker 1: down we go again that for that to break through, 754 00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,680 Speaker 1: the key UH support would be something. West Texas had 755 00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:37,400 Speaker 1: a twenty nine handle right now, exactly thirty point zero 756 00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,080 Speaker 1: zero on West Texas c in and weeated up fifty 757 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,560 Speaker 1: six cents a jumble to the market gold down twenty 758 00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:47,600 Speaker 1: six dollars. That's important. Another hour of Bloomberg surveillance. Stay 759 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:47,960 Speaker 1: with us