1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg lis 5 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: An Saunders joins us now shall swap, Chief investment strategist. 6 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: Le's und great to catch up, as always, just walk 7 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: me through how uncomfortable it is, just to stick with it, 8 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: to stick with what's working at the moment. Well, the 9 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: problem is what is working changes on a week to 10 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: week basis, you know, were there was so much attention 11 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: obviously on the most heavily short at stocks in the game. 12 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: Stop saga almost in reading headlines suggesting that this was 13 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: some brand new phenomenon. But the sort of rise of 14 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: retail traders and the dominance they're having goes back to 15 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: last summer. It's just that when when you first started 16 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: to see that increase in speculative activity in single stocks 17 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: in the options market, it was concentrated in those leadership 18 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: stocks at the time, the fang type stocks, the big 19 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: five stocks, and then they kind of rode the rotation 20 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: that really kicked into ernest in November when we got 21 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 1: the vaccine news into the energy stocks and the financials, 22 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: and for probably a variety of reasons, not least being 23 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: just the sort of social media kind of driving a 24 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: flash mob, it went into these more arcane parts of 25 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 1: the market. Now it's there, that sort of attention is 26 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: coming back into more macro earnings related So I don't 27 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: know whether you're going to notice it as much. We've 28 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 1: just been telling investors just the obvious differentiate between gambling 29 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: and speculating on stocks or areas of the market with 30 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: no underlying fundamental and longer term investing. Lisen, I'm gonna 31 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: bore you with my question. I always asked you, because 32 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: I think you're better at this and anybody in the industry. 33 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: What are we actually doing with our money? Chile Schwab 34 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: has a knowledge of flows second to none. What are 35 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: we actually doing with our money? Well, we've seen a 36 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: slight waning of domestic equity flows in the last couple 37 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: of months, but interestingly, you're seeing a pickup and flows 38 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: two markets outside the United States, which which we think 39 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: is a is a good sign that the whole notion 40 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: of diversification is no longer as hard to sell as 41 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: it's been in the recent past. And then also at 42 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: the more sector level, flows have started to pick up 43 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: on the more cyclical parts of the economy, like energy, 44 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: like materials, like industrials, where you're seeing some outflows out 45 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: of areas like consumer discretionary and tech. So I think 46 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: the flows are shifting towards this recovery focus with that 47 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: more cyclical, commodity oriented bias. Do you think, Lizanne, that 48 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: there is complacency in any corners of these markets, that 49 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:00,519 Speaker 1: the reflation trade that's underway is under price and that 50 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: will continue to see inflation expectations climb as we get 51 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,079 Speaker 1: more stimulised packages past. Is there any signs to you 52 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: that that consensus has gone too far? Well from an 53 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: inflation perspective, we we think we're going to uh to 54 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: see it, but it's going to be more a function 55 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: of price shocks. We don't think we're we're sowing the 56 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: seeds of anything resembling a late seventies early eighties style 57 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: inflation environment, but one where you have imbalances between demand 58 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: and supply. Uh. We think you'll see that. Plus the 59 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: cops get really easy on an inflation front heading into 60 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: what was the pandemic shutdown period of last year. The 61 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: question is at what point does it spook investors, UM 62 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: and or the FED. I think they're going to have 63 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: a decent amount of patients. The other area of complacency 64 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: I worry about is the sense that once we're at 65 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: heart immunity getting everybody is getting vaccinated, that pent up 66 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: demand is going to be unleashed in this massive wave. 67 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: I just think the nature pent up demand on the 68 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: service society the economy is different than pent up demand 69 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: on the good side, and we really have met a 70 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: lot of the demand on the good side autos, housing, 71 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: housing related, but on the services side. You know, if 72 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: if you used to get a haircut once a month 73 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: and you haven't gotten one, you go back when your 74 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 1: salon opens and you get a haircut, you don't get 75 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: seven of them. You don't You don't go out to breakfast, brunch, 76 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 1: launch tea, dinner, and dessert every day to make up 77 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: for that lost restaurant time. You don't take six vacations 78 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: in a row. So I just think we may have 79 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: to curb our enthusiasm for what pent up demand means 80 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: to the economy, given that it's more on the services 81 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: side than the good side. Listen, is there some inconsistency 82 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: in your view in the reflation trade that's being priced 83 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: into many markets that you think is based in reality 84 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: and treasure yields at less than one Well, I think 85 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: that you know, yields where they are reflects and improving 86 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: growth environment less so a aspect for a significant increase 87 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: in inflation, and ultimately from an equity market perspective, it's 88 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: not nominal yields that matter, but of course really yields 89 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 1: and and you know that story at least being put 90 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: out there by the bulls to support still quite high 91 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 1: evaluations at this stage hasn't wined. Good catch up. Thanks 92 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 1: for paying the sismonic of child swap right now. And 93 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: this is a joy and indeed an honor for Bloomberg 94 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: surveillance where we've tried to do as much as we 95 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: can on this horrific natural disaster. Albert co Is at Yale. 96 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: He is definitive and epidemiology for havingy courage to go 97 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: where the poor are. He owns a high ground of 98 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: the study of viruses and vaccines not only in Africa, 99 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: but in South America and particularly the Brazil away from 100 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: the prosper Alardie of the big cities. Dr co joins 101 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,600 Speaker 1: us this morning on vaccination, Albert Cole, I've got to 102 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 1: go to the southern border of the United States. It 103 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: is impoverished, it is Hispanic and boy, those statistics are grim. 104 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: Tell us about this virus, the vaccine path and the 105 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 1: poor of America. Yes, Tom, thank you very much for 106 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: the invitation to return on your show. Um. Yeah, I 107 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: think that's all on our all of our bandwidths about 108 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: you know, first of all, the inequitable, um and disproportionate 109 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: impact that this pandemic has had are not only the 110 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: poorest countries, but the poorest segments of our population, and 111 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: that includes the impoverished in the South. And I think 112 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: the second thing that we're worried about is um is 113 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: vaccine is potentially going to amplify that that inequity or 114 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: that disproportionate burden, you know, with with how said, uh, 115 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: with impoverished or um underserved communities having lower access to 116 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: the vaccine than wealthier communities. What are the best practices 117 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: from other countries we can affect to get to the 118 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: poor faster. So I think I think, you know, I 119 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: would hold up certain You know, countries such as Brazil, 120 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: as you mentioned where I worked, where they have had 121 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: mass vaccination programs from measles for yellow fever, and they 122 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: run them effectively. I think the most important thing is 123 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: to keep things simple and the second thing is is 124 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: to provide access and and intense you know, numbers of 125 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: clinics and vaccination sites in those communities that have um 126 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: uh lower uptakes and less access in general. Um in 127 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: that sense, you know, countries like India, Brazil, they're they're 128 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: kind of models for us to to follow. Dr co 129 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: John referenced earlier this study showing that in the United Kingdom, 130 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: one dose of the fire Beyond in Tech vaccine offered 131 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: two thirds of the protection against getting the virus. This 132 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: is very good news and indicate you're going to get 133 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: an acceleration of the impact of a vaccination even before 134 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: the complete dose has taken Do we have a sense 135 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: of how much the vaccine has already acted as a 136 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: circuit breaker to stop the pandemic. Yeah, so, Lisa, So 137 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: that's certainly promising news. And there's a there's also information 138 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: and very good quality information coming out of places like Israel, 139 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: which has been rolling out the vaccine very quickly and 140 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: giving us a snapshot of what what could happen here 141 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: in the United States, you know where to roll out 142 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: across the population in large numbers. So at this moment um, 143 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: you know, unfortunately, in order to really get what we 144 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: call that herd immuni effect, that population level benefit of 145 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: the vaccines through either the first dose or the and 146 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: as well as receiving the second dose, it's going to 147 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: require us vacinating much larger numbers, but much larger suabs 148 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 1: of our population to do that. Right now, you know, 149 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 1: we're we're still less than ten percent of our country 150 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 1: has has been vaccinated. We need to really get those 151 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: numbers up much higher and much faster, and that's going 152 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: to be even more important when we're thinking about the 153 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: threat of variants. Do you think we need to recalibrate 154 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: then to optimize the rollout. Doctor given to the UK 155 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,199 Speaker 1: did roll the dice on this in many ways. I'm 156 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 1: sure it was supported by some medical evidence, but some 157 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,439 Speaker 1: people push back at the same time about doing a 158 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: one dose and then pushing out the time between the 159 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 1: first dose and the second dose. Is that something that 160 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: resonates with you, sir, something you would endorse. Yes, I uh, 161 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: you know, I think again, first of all, Vagina, I 162 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: think we have to be humble. Um, we're going to 163 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: be We've learned a lot, you know, in a very 164 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: short time about this, uh, this virus, and we're continuously learning. 165 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: And as these studies come out, and particularly the UK 166 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: study that Lisa said, and that makes us more confident that, 167 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: you know, the policy that that England had proposed, which 168 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: is giving the first shot in delaying the second shot 169 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: so they can they can immunize or vaccinate larger population, 170 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: you know, larger proportional population may be successful. Now we're 171 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: going to obviously everyone's going to be looking at the 172 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: scientific evidence as it rolls out, but it's certainly pointing 173 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: that way. John, Dr Co I'm a little bit reluctant 174 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: to ask you this because I don't think I want 175 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: to know the answer. But the post pandemic future coronavirus 176 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: is not going away. It's probably going to mutate. That's 177 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: what all of the professionals in the field say. Are 178 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: we going to be masthless? What will it look like 179 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: as this continues to become part of the medical backdrop 180 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,959 Speaker 1: of the world. Yes, At Lisa, I think let me 181 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: break that down into two parts. The short term. In 182 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: the long term, UM, we know that these variants are emerging, 183 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: and those variants are being fueled by mutations, and those 184 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 1: mutations in of themselves being fueled by mass you know, 185 00:10:55,200 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: large scale, widespread, uncontrolled transmission. And as long as we're 186 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: not controlling transmission, we are going to set ourselves up 187 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: for continued selection of variants that potentially may escape not 188 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: only natural infection or the immunity caused by natural infection, 189 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 1: but also that let alicit to there conferred by vaccines. 190 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: And let me make a second point, is is that 191 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: you know this can't be done just like in the 192 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: UK or the United States and South Africa. Has to 193 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 1: be done, you know, the control of transmission as a 194 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 1: driver for these variants has to be done throughout the 195 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: world because we know these variants can can travel in 196 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: one place to the other. So that that that's really 197 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: certainly the concern in the short run. In the long run, 198 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: that means exactly unfortunately, we see your fears that that 199 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: we're going to have to keep keep continuing the public 200 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: health practice of mass social gathering UM reduction in social distances. 201 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: It's going to be really difficult to reopen international travel 202 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: anytime soon now, But thank you for your time today. 203 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: Don't to wrap a how that of the yel skild 204 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: of medicine. Michelle Meyer joins us out with Bank of 205 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: America and they've done some brilliant maths. We went through 206 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: it with their colleague Ethan Harris a couple of days ago. Michelle, 207 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: four percent, g d pause nine g d P g 208 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: d P. You've got that big fiscal pop. Good morning, 209 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: professor Summers. Up against inflation, which breaks? Do we break 210 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: inflation higher or do we get a fiscal job done? Um? So, 211 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: I think the way that we're thinking about it is 212 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: certainly in the near term there's a big pushed into 213 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: the economy as a result of stimulus. There's a lot 214 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: of money slashing around there already and more is to come, 215 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: and that will generate higher consumers spending. Um And as 216 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: Mike outlined, I think quite clearly for certain industries there 217 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: could be supply constraints and that can exert upward pressure. 218 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: But to me to understand whether and it's a sustainable 219 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: turn higher in inflation, there's two critical components. One inflation 220 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:10,719 Speaker 1: expectations right, that will that will move this transitory inflation 221 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: shock to something more permanent if people reathet expectations and 222 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: if pricing power picks up on the business side, and 223 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 1: again people are willing to spend more because they have 224 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 1: this cash on hand um and that kind of feeds 225 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 1: on itself. The other critical factor is the health of 226 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: the labor market, to the extent that this demand push 227 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: actually helps to also heal the labor market faster, bring 228 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate down more quickly. That will provide a 229 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 1: more again persistent um income support for the consumer through 230 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,079 Speaker 1: wage growth through labor income. We keep them Yeah, well, 231 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 1: we keep referencing this Bill Dudley column, and I want 232 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 1: to get your view on some of the specific points 233 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 1: within it. What he's saying will cause higher inflation. One 234 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 1: of them is that he sees demand picking up at 235 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: a time when supply is still reduced. You've got restaurants 236 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,439 Speaker 1: that have gone on businesses, a lot of small businesses, 237 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: uh that have not recovered. So given the fact that 238 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: there are fewer establishments out there, they'll be able to 239 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: charge more since they'll be in this influx of demand. 240 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: Do you see that as a potential driver of inflation? Sure? 241 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: I think that's a very fair argument that you have 242 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: an imbalance where demand for certain activities picks up very 243 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 1: quickly and you don't have the supply we thought it 244 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: actually in the reverse on the good side. I mean, 245 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: think about back in this spring and summer when demand 246 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: was picking up impressively for autos, for household appliances, for electronics, 247 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: and there wasn't enough supply initially, and that created this 248 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 1: kind of one off level shift higher in prices on goods, 249 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 1: which are now reversing once supply has returned. So this 250 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: supplied demanding balance should be somewhat temporary, right. The demand 251 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: will pick up for something like restaurants, which was cited, 252 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: and then capacity will come back online over time, and 253 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: that will create a little bit more of a of 254 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: a ceiling on the price pressure. So again, to make 255 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: it persistent, it has to be resetting inflation expectations and 256 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: driving much stronger labor fundamentals as well. The only question 257 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: that matters ready, Michelle, for market participants, will the fet 258 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: be bold enough to look through that burst that bust 259 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: we all anticipate at some point like this year. Do 260 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: you think there will be? I do? I do? I 261 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: think certainly the base effects in the spring. They're ready 262 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: for them. They've been talking about them. As Tom and Mike, 263 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: we're just talking about you know, it's just simple math 264 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: when you look at the year of your comparisons, um 265 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: and I think what they're the FED is going to 266 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: do rightfully so is to look at the bottoms up 267 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: analysis of inflation. Where is inflation picking up on a 268 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: sector basis, and given that, can they make the argument 269 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: that it's a short term supply issue versus something more persistent. 270 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: If they get a turnaround and you know, a notable 271 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: increase in some of these more trimmed mean measures or 272 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: something like shelter, which is more a function to business cycle, 273 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: then they might start to anticipate a higher trend of inflation. 274 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: But they're going to be looking at the components to 275 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: understand whether it's transying or not. It's all That's what's 276 00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: amazing about this discussion right now. The Fett is talent. 277 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: You what's going to happen, and it's probably going to happen. 278 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: The base effects will kick in. This is what happens 279 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: when people will re engage with the economy as well. 280 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 1: And they're also telling us what they will do when 281 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: this happens, yet we are still going to be having 282 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: the same conversation for nine months. This goes up to 283 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: the joke I made earlier about the inflation east does 284 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: mischell Meyer. I turned to the e c I, the 285 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: measurement of wages and benefits, And the key thing here 286 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: is how do you have wage inflation? With Heidie Sheerold's 287 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: and e p I saying nine million bodies are out 288 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: of commission and if you extrap laid out of a 289 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: no pandemic boom, it's a more like eleven or twelve 290 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: million bodies out of commission. Where does wage inflation return? 291 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: So I think that it's very hard to understand the 292 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: wage dynamics right now. E c I, as you mentioned, tom, 293 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: is a preferred measure. It's better in real time than 294 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: average early earnings. But there is no perfect measure right 295 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: now because there's been such dislocations the labor market, and 296 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: you have these compositional issues where the lower paid individuals 297 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: experience more job cuts, and as a result, you've seen 298 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: this shift in terms of aggregate income or aggregate wages. 299 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,439 Speaker 1: So I think in the meantime, we just kind of 300 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: have to wait it out until we have a more 301 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: comprehensive and full, you know, broad based labor market recovery 302 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: to properly understand these wage dynamics. Chell great to catch 303 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: up as always, Michelle, thank for America Security's head of 304 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: u SE Economics. Now it's our great pleasure to turn 305 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 1: to the chairman and CEO of General Motors. Shere's Mary Borrow. Mary, 306 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Good to 307 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: see you again. Let me start by saying, barring from 308 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: Queen Elizabeth, this could easily have been an annis horebulus 309 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 1: for General Motors, given the pandemic, shutting down plants, repurposing 310 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: to make ventilators, and yet it wasn't. You basically beat 311 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: across the board expectations fourth quarter and for the year. 312 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: So from the inside, how did you do it? Well? 313 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 1: I think it was everybody coming together. It really represented 314 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: the great work and the teamwork at General Motors. With 315 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: our all of our employees are suppliers or dealers. We 316 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 1: all came together to make sure we could keep our 317 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: employees safe but then also protect our customers and protect 318 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 1: the business. So I couldn't be more proud of everything 319 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: the team accomplished last year. As it turned out, your 320 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: biggest problem was manufacturing enough, particularly those trucks and those SUVs, 321 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 1: because the demand came back. Were you surprised how fast 322 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: the demand came back? Well, you know, we have a 323 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: very strong full size truck in our full size SUVs 324 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 1: that we launched on time last year even with the pandemic, 325 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: and I think it just it speaks to how popular 326 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: the truck is. We have very very different models that 327 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: reach different segments and so we've been able to grow 328 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: share and we're very proud of our truck leadership. So, Mary, 329 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: as you know so well, investors immediately say what have 330 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 1: you done for me lately? So let's look forward now 331 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,640 Speaker 1: to what you're expecting. You're protecting a strong year as well, 332 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 1: even though you do have some headwinds from things like 333 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: shortage of chips. Yeah, we think we're going to have 334 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 1: a very positive year in one, not only from a 335 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 1: financial perspective, but also the continued acceleration of our EV 336 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,360 Speaker 1: and our a V business. We're really excited that very 337 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: shortly we're going to be launching the Chevrolet Bold EUV, 338 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: which is a great vehicle. And that's uh, that's days away. Uh, 339 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 1: And then you know later this year will be UH 340 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: serving the market with the GMC Hummer UH e V 341 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: and then the catalec Lyric comes shortly after that as 342 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: well as tremendous progress being made from an autonomous perspective 343 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: as well. So we're really excited about the year, the 344 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 1: growth opportunities that we have in front of us. UH 345 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: and so it's a year of execution and you know, 346 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: the issues with chips, this is a short term mission, 347 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: will work through it. Well, is general mode is basically 348 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 1: the same boat as everyone else? Or are there things 349 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 1: that you can do to get something of advantage over 350 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 1: other automakers? Well, I think in general this is an 351 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: industry issue. Of course, we're working every single day with 352 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: a cross functional team to look for opportunities of how 353 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: do we minimize the impact. So we'll continue to do that. 354 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 1: You know, we did provide the guidance with a fairly 355 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 1: wide range and we'll work at every day and provide 356 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 1: updates as we go forward. As you said, you've got 357 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,479 Speaker 1: a lot of e V models come out, including as 358 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 1: you say, the Bold EUV and the Bold EV new 359 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: model coming out. You're investing twenty seven billion dollars. This 360 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,359 Speaker 1: is part of a multi year plan here as a 361 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 1: practical matter, what are the difficulties in that plan? And 362 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: particularly I want to talk about supply chains things like 363 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,400 Speaker 1: battery cells some of the lithium issues. Do you anticipate 364 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: possible problems with supply chains into your battery operation? Well, 365 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: I think you know, we're one of only two UH 366 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: automakers that are doing cell manufacturer in this country. We 367 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 1: also are doing a tremendous amount of development on our 368 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: own and our own g M, R and D, as 369 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: well as partnering with startups and our of course our 370 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 1: joint venture with LG KEM that is development as well 371 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 1: as production. So you know, we're working hard to make 372 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: sure we have all the cells we need and we've 373 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: worked you know, through the supply base to make sure 374 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 1: we do because we are as as we've talked about, 375 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 1: we're accelerating our v e vs with thirty and you know, 376 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: really covering the whole market. So you know, we continue 377 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: to work it, but we think we've got a very 378 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: strong plan. I did some rough math here. It might 379 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: be wrong, but basically if you made all of your 380 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: vehicles as electric vehicles, you would actually be using more 381 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: than the total mono lithium produced in the entire world 382 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,400 Speaker 1: by yourself. So does that mean we'll have less lithium 383 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: used or we're going to find new sources of it? Well, 384 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 1: I think you know, we're working on securing the supply 385 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: that we need, but we're also working on development that 386 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: allows us to use less precious metals overall. So it's 387 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: kind of a yes, and both are things that we're 388 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 1: working on at the same time. When we talk about 389 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: things like the Bolt EV that's coming out, questions come 390 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: up with profitability. We had din lawer competitor come out 391 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: and say by the end of the decade they will 392 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: be making as much or more out of electric fields 393 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: as they do off. A question engines, what's your profitability 394 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 1: path for electric vehicles? Well, we have set a goal 395 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 1: for ourselves to have margins from our auto business be 396 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: at ten percent. That's not changing. Uh. We don't talk 397 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,360 Speaker 1: about individual product line profitability, but I can tell you 398 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 1: with the progress that we're making because of the work 399 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: we do with battery development, from our our first generation 400 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 1: bowl TV to when we get to ultim we see 401 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 1: about at improvement and we're already working on the next 402 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: generation of our ultium technology that should take it to 403 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: accumulative sixty or more. So, you know, I'm very confident 404 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 1: that as we move forward and continue to make advancements 405 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 1: not only in the cost, but in the energy energy density, 406 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: that's going to allow us to to have margins similar 407 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,119 Speaker 1: that we have today as we get into the mid 408 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:47,920 Speaker 1: and later part of the decades. How much help do 409 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 1: you anticipate getting out of the government. We have a 410 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: new president present Biden, who says he really wants to 411 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,479 Speaker 1: go to amission few vehicles in the government fleet very quickly. 412 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: He basically wants to replace them all over period of time, 413 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: create one million new jobs. Is that going to help 414 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: a lot your move at General Motors over to electric vehicles? Well, 415 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: I absolutely think so. I think understanding evs, understanding the importance, 416 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: and really we have to work together. Business and governments 417 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: need to work together to make sure we have a 418 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: whole ecosystem that encourages e v adoption. We need to 419 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 1: make sure there's the right charging and that's why the 420 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 1: you know, the work going on for infrastructure is so important. 421 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 1: So we're having regular conversations with members of the administration 422 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 1: as well as members of Congress to make sure they 423 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: understand all the pieces that need to come together to 424 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: support an ali V future. Finally, Mary, we all watched 425 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, we watch Will Ferrell, and I guess 426 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 1: my main question is what have you got to get 427 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: to Norway? There seems to be some grudge with Norway here. Well, 428 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: I think you know, when you look at Norway, they've 429 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: have the highest DV adoption and so I think it's 430 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 1: driving awareness. Um, we're really um pleased with the added 431 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 1: it resonated across so many, so many groups, but you know, 432 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: especially uh millennials and how they look at the future, 433 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 1: and to drive that awareness we think is really important. 434 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: And I'm virtually finish, so I have a natural affiliation 435 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: with the Scandinavian countries, but it's more highlighting what Norway 436 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: has done and making sure people understand, um that evs 437 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: are a very important part of our future. And I'm 438 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 1: a quarter Swedish, so it was satisfying you know that 439 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: Wilfaller actually ended up in Sweden at the end of 440 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: the end. Thank you so much. May always great to 441 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 1: talk to me. That's very far. She is chairman and 442 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 1: CEO of General Motors. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 443 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:35,360 Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 444 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 445 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:44,159 Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 446 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio