Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pie Zapia and
Speaker 1: it's Monday. You know what that means. It's time to
Speaker 1: look ahead to Week seven in the NFL. And maybe
Speaker 1: that's a good thing for a lot of teams that
Speaker 1: were overlooking their opponents. In Week six, we had some
Speaker 1: massive upsets. The Cleveland Brown's upset, the San Francisco forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers, the New York Jets, and Zach Wilson. That's right,
Speaker 1: that Zach Wilson beat the Philadelphia Eagles. So it's a crazy,
Speaker 1: crazy week that we are trying to recover from. Lucky
Speaker 1: for me, despite the fact my favorite thing all week,
Speaker 1: Derek Brown, was the the four and a half we
Speaker 1: locked in early on this show last week on the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers. I felt so good about that until
Speaker 1: I started watching that game and watching the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers slowly implode upon themselves, then the injuries take their toll.
Speaker 1: I bet the Browns hard at plus four point fifty
Speaker 1: live and I stuck with it. I was offered a
Speaker 1: cash out debro and I said, no, I'm gonna see
Speaker 1: this rookie kicker all the way through the end. I
Speaker 1: told my dad. I was like, look, we're gonna rerooting
Speaker 1: for the Brown's ear. We watch it all the way
Speaker 1: to the end. He missed the kick. It saved my
Speaker 1: entire day. Thank you, Cleveland Browns. And here's to live betting.
Speaker 1: What a beautiful thing, Derek Brown, Sam hop and joining
Speaker 1: us to look ahead, deebro it was a crazy week six.
Speaker 1: I'm happy to turn the page.
Speaker 2: I don't know about you, very very happy. And to
Speaker 2: turn the page, I need Monday night to go pretty well,
Speaker 2: to end up above fifty percent for bets. So just
Speaker 2: a bloodbath on bets. And I was watching the same game, Joe,
Speaker 2: and because of where I'm at, I wasn't able to
Speaker 2: live Bett and Hedge. I would that is the sharpest
Speaker 2: all get out call. But I'm watching it with my kids,
Speaker 2: and my kids go, hey, Dad, who we want to win?
Speaker 2: And I was like, we really want the forty nine
Speaker 2: ers to win right now?
Speaker 1: Yeah, then we want them to win.
Speaker 2: And I was like, okay, all I need is for
Speaker 2: them to drive the distance of the field and then
Speaker 2: we get the cover for the four and a half.
Speaker 2: So I need it and we didn't. We didn't know
Speaker 2: any that did not happen.
Speaker 1: Sam. I was texting with Derek during this game, saying, Oh,
Speaker 1: I'm just so good for the Browns. Every time something
Speaker 1: good happened for them. I kept texted in BJ Walker,
Speaker 1: PJ Walker. Sam, you mentioned to me before the show started,
Speaker 1: you're not sure if any team is good in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Who's the best team in the NFL right now? If
Speaker 1: I had to ask.
Speaker 2: You, it's probably the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I mean, like at this point, you got to give
Speaker 3: them the benefit of the doubt. With Patrick Mahomes. Their
Speaker 3: defense we'll talk about later. I think is a top
Speaker 3: five defense right now, and they have Andy Reid. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's it's them, or it's still probably the forty nine
Speaker 3: ers I think up top. I think again, going against
Speaker 3: one of the best defenses, if not now the best
Speaker 3: defense in the league, there was just a sort of
Speaker 3: a tail outcome for them on offense.
Speaker 1: So all right, well, we're going to try to pick
Speaker 1: up the pieces from week six, move on to week
Speaker 1: seven before we do a little bit of housekeeping. You know,
Speaker 1: we like to give away free things here, so it's
Speaker 1: time to give away that. Odell Beckham jersey again the
Speaker 1: Ravens own thanks to Betting Pros. So the big winner
Speaker 1: of the Ravens jersey is you, Casey Phillips. Congratulations, Casey Phillips.
Speaker 1: Get in touch with us over at Mailbag at Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com with your mailing address, proof of your subscription
Speaker 1: to Betting Pros YouTube channel, and we'll get that jersey
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Speaker 1: at Mailbag at Bettingpros dot com and with one giveaway gone,
Speaker 1: another one begins. So it's time to throw in your
Speaker 1: hat for this one. Brace yourselves if you want a
Speaker 1: chance to win this. Robert Tuny in Chicago bears jersey
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Speaker 1: you can give it to fat Pat Fitzmorris as a
Speaker 1: gag gift for all I care. It's hilarious. Go get
Speaker 1: it right now. All right, let's start at Thursday night
Speaker 1: football uncertainty of the Jaguars because one of the many
Speaker 1: injuries is Trevor Lawrence. We're dealing with that right now.
Speaker 1: So New Orleans at plus one and a half underdogs
Speaker 1: at home minus one fifteen over at bet MGM minus
Speaker 1: point five. Right now you can get Jacksonville points. Bet
Speaker 1: the numbers forty one and a half. The money line
Speaker 1: is minus money basically right there around one hundred one
Speaker 1: h two to one ten, depending on where you look.
Speaker 1: Sam Hoppin, do you see any early value in this game?
Speaker 1: You want to jump on this maybe before you get
Speaker 1: clarity with the injury to Lawrence, if it goes in
Speaker 1: the right direction, and maybe get some value.
Speaker 3: I don't. This is a real tricky one. Obviously you
Speaker 3: mentioned Trevor Lawrence dealing with some injury issues that the
Speaker 3: market right now I think is pessimistic on Lawrence playing
Speaker 3: this game. I think in an out of conference game
Speaker 3: Thursday night, short week, they maybe exercise some caution with Lawrence.
Speaker 3: They also lost Tyson Campbell their top cornerback and Brandon
Speaker 3: Shurf their top lineman against the cold this past week.
Speaker 3: So they're dealing with a number of injuries, not just
Speaker 3: to Trevor Lawrence. And so this is one that just
Speaker 3: I think screams under for me right now. It's Alwaukee
Speaker 3: Thursday Night football. Both defenses, I think are our top
Speaker 3: ten in the league. The Saints offense has sputtered quite
Speaker 3: a bit in recent games, so I think with the
Speaker 3: Jacksonville run defense being very strong against a Saints tief
Speaker 3: team that wants to run the ball, it won't lead
Speaker 3: to many points on Thursday Night football.
Speaker 1: All right, coming off a tough loss there in Houston,
Speaker 1: do you think that New Orleans takes advantage of this
Speaker 1: home field that they have in a Jacksonville Jags team
Speaker 1: that's a little banged upty? Or what do you see here?
Speaker 1: Or you're just looking for the under Like Sam said.
Speaker 2: I think the unders in play, but give me I'll
Speaker 2: look for the Saints to cover in this one, and
Speaker 2: I want the Saints money line not only playing at home.
Speaker 2: This game is another one we get more news on
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence, Like if he misses this game, spread's gonna tilt,
Speaker 2: it's gonna go in New Orleans favor. I want to
Speaker 2: be ahead of that. And yeah, I mean I think
Speaker 2: the Saints win this game. So if I'm I think
Speaker 2: this money again, if any Lawrence news drops, I think
Speaker 2: this moves more in the Saints favor And I like
Speaker 2: the Saints at home. There's so many different parts of
Speaker 2: pieces the Saints offense. Also, this last week against the
Speaker 2: Texans showed a few more signs of getting right, and
Speaker 2: Jacksonville has been a massive pass funnel this year. I
Speaker 2: think Derek Carr can walk away with another good game.
Speaker 1: Next up is the Giants at home, coming off another loss.
Speaker 1: There now one in five, maybe that call should have
Speaker 1: gone their way. We can argue that all day. They
Speaker 1: are two point underdogs at home to Washington minus one
Speaker 1: and a half, and get that number over on fandle
Speaker 1: right now, the number is anywhere from forty to forty
Speaker 1: and a half right now, if you like the Giants
Speaker 1: to pull out this in division win at home plus
Speaker 1: one ten. Now, they did get Saquon back last week,
Speaker 1: this yesterday really last week, but still the same thing.
Speaker 1: But Derek, you know, the Giants continue to struggle to
Speaker 1: get w year, Sam Howe, and Washington coming off a
Speaker 1: big road wind. You seeing the early value on this
Speaker 1: line here between the Commanders and the Giants.
Speaker 2: Give me the Giants money line. And I know I'm
Speaker 2: talking about a one in five team, but we just
Speaker 2: saw them go toe to toe with the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: Tyrod actually moving this offense going against the Commanders and
Speaker 2: they get them at home if that defense can stack
Speaker 2: another good week. And Washington's offensive line has been abysmal.
Speaker 2: The Giants pass rush is nothing. To sit here and
Speaker 2: snub your nose at so they can get pressure after
Speaker 2: Sam Howe, who I gotta go look at it. I
Speaker 2: still think he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 2: I will happily take the Giants money line A plus
Speaker 2: money right now.
Speaker 1: I'm a sucker for those eighties throwbacks that Giants were
Speaker 1: wearing last night. They looked so good. It looks so good.
Speaker 1: It's so good, and look they left it all out
Speaker 1: there in the field. They gave it everything against the
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. In your opinion, Sam, do you see any
Speaker 1: value early on in this New York Washington game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, not really. I originally made this line Washington by
Speaker 3: two and a half. I'd really don't think whether it's
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor, that the line changes all
Speaker 3: that much. You know, you think about the randomness of
Speaker 3: the NFL, like if that end of half scenario goes
Speaker 3: differently for the Giants and then they are in field
Speaker 3: goal range to potentially win that game. Like, I don't
Speaker 3: know if we're talking about them that differently, but it
Speaker 3: does talk to the randomness a bit. The Giants do
Speaker 3: blitz a ton on defense, and Sam however, versus the
Speaker 3: blitz has been terribly as a fifty three zero point
Speaker 3: five PFF grade, which is twenty eighth among qualifying quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: So I think the Giants might be to play here,
Speaker 3: but it's it's an indivision game that I just I
Speaker 3: don't know. I'd rather not.
Speaker 1: No, I can understand that, And look, I think the
Speaker 1: only difference was if they had won that game last night.
Speaker 1: You build a little momentum of confidence, like, hey, we
Speaker 1: got saque back, we got a huge road victory. We're
Speaker 1: gonna come home in division game and get back on track.
Speaker 1: Now you're gonna see what Brian Dabole Coach of the
Speaker 1: Year is worth because now You're gonna know how he
Speaker 1: motivates these guys. Are they are you one and five
Speaker 1: in your quitting or are you one in five? Are
Speaker 1: you're fighting next week? So this is gonna be an
Speaker 1: interesting game, but again one to bet on. That's the
Speaker 1: tricky part. Buffalo, the aforementioned is gonna head to New England.
Speaker 1: Boy do they stink? I keep making money against the
Speaker 1: Patriots every single week. I'm a Patriots fan who's at
Speaker 1: twenty plus years of glory and now I'm making money
Speaker 1: off the downside. So I mean, it's it's just nothing
Speaker 1: but winning. It feels like, uh, this is I thought
Speaker 1: this number would be ten right now it's at nine
Speaker 1: nine and a half over at bet MGM you can
Speaker 1: get this one. Of course, New England is underdogs at home.
Speaker 1: Buffalo usually blows the doors off New England most of
Speaker 1: these games lately. Anyway, Forty two and a half is
Speaker 1: the number. If you like New England for the upset,
Speaker 1: and I don't, it's plus three thirty over a points bet.
Speaker 1: I think this number of the nine. Look, I don't
Speaker 1: want to take too much out of last night, Sam
Speaker 1: in terms of the Buffalo offense, especially after you had
Speaker 1: that moment with Damian Harris, you know, getting hurt. I
Speaker 1: think the shades of that moment reminding everybody of last
Speaker 1: year with Hamlin. I think that was a lot for
Speaker 1: that team mentally. So I think they just go in here,
Speaker 1: beat the crap out of the New England Patriots, and
Speaker 1: I think this nine is safe to you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, really a tough situation with Damian and Harris.
Speaker 3: Hope he's okay, but absolutely, I think the Bills can
Speaker 3: cover here. Their four man rush on defense is so lethal.
Speaker 3: I mean they have the sixth highest pressure rate but
Speaker 3: only the twenty ninth highest blitzer rate, so they are
Speaker 3: getting after the quarterback with just four guys. The Bill's
Speaker 3: defense is a little bit boom or bust for this reason.
Speaker 3: When the pass pass protection can hold up on the
Speaker 3: other side, the team can you know, give up some
Speaker 3: bigger plays. But New England has nothing on offense that's explosive.
Speaker 3: I mean, it just looks really bad. They had gone
Speaker 3: I think like twenty seven straight drives without scoring a point,
Speaker 3: you know, a bajillion drives without even getting into the
Speaker 3: red zone, like it was. It's not been good for them,
Speaker 3: and I think the Bills can cover this one pretty easily.
Speaker 1: I do too. In fact, I want to lock it
Speaker 1: in now because I think it's only going to grow
Speaker 1: as time goes. I think people are gonna bet the
Speaker 1: Bills hard early on. I think this is gonna go
Speaker 1: to double digits easily. And I might even tease this
Speaker 1: one too, Like, I just feel like that, uh de bro,
Speaker 1: your take on New England Buffalo offense not good for
Speaker 1: the Patriots defense not much better?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that the Patriots are just an isore
Speaker 2: right now. It's really bad. I don't disagree that. I
Speaker 2: think that Buffalo can cover this. The only thing that
Speaker 2: I think could could drag this to where Buffalo doesn't
Speaker 2: cover is the Bills have a really bad run defense.
Speaker 2: This is a perfect spot New England at home inter
Speaker 2: division game for them to slow things down. Feed mare
Speaker 2: feed zeke, drag this game to the under and to
Speaker 2: be honest, like I maybe the under is the only
Speaker 2: way that I want to attack this. But outside of that,
Speaker 2: I'm staying away from the spread and everything else.
Speaker 1: The mac Jones turnovers too. I mean that first interception
Speaker 1: he three yesterday was so bad. It was such a
Speaker 1: bad bad desis It's just broken there like and the
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills are gonna have turnovers in this game. I'm
Speaker 1: staying away from the over under. I'm just going straight
Speaker 1: to the Bills. That's all I'm doing here. Let's go
Speaker 1: straight to Tampa Bay. It's much warmer there. Let's go
Speaker 1: to Tampa. They are three and two. They are minus
Speaker 1: two and a half. You're at home. The Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 1: come in at plus three over a points. Bet the
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. You can get a fan
Speaker 1: duel forty is this number on DK thirty nine and
Speaker 1: a half over if you like that one over at
Speaker 1: bet MGM and then plus one thirty for the Falcons
Speaker 1: to win outright. So the Falcons got their first home
Speaker 1: loss in a while, for the first home loss of
Speaker 1: Desmuner's career. Can the Falcons get back on track here?
Speaker 1: De bro or do you think that Tampa kind of
Speaker 1: recovers from Sunday's butt kicking by the Detroit Lions and
Speaker 1: and actually win this football game?
Speaker 2: I like the Falcons in this one. Give me their lot,
Speaker 2: their bunny line. I think the total and the spread
Speaker 2: are pretty spot on. But I do think the Falcons
Speaker 2: can go into Tampa and win this game. Defense still
Speaker 2: playing good. There's still pressure in the quarterback. Well, we
Speaker 2: know that break Baker Mayfield can fall apart, and he's
Speaker 2: been surprisingly good versus pressure this year. But I think
Speaker 2: that you're looking at the outside doo of these corners.
Speaker 2: We still haven't seen a just monster blow up game
Speaker 2: from Bijon Robinson. So it's coming one of these weeks.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to rule it out that it's against Tampa.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, This line is basically choose your own adventures.
Speaker 1: So how do you want to choose it?
Speaker 3: First of all, I think Atlanta struggles on early downs defensively,
Speaker 3: but Tampa Bay struggles on early downs offensively. So I
Speaker 3: think that I don't know, it's just one. I don't
Speaker 3: We have so many question marks in these games in
Speaker 3: this slate that I just none of it really weren't
Speaker 3: much opportunity.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't.
Speaker 1: If it doesn't work much opportunity, then it sounds like
Speaker 1: you're thinking about unders when it comes to this forty'.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, forty points is a lot for these teams.
Speaker 3: I mean, Tampa Bay is a pass final defense. But
Speaker 3: Desmond Rider has struggled. He had the one good game
Speaker 3: last week, but I think he just needs to get
Speaker 3: the ball in the hands of his playmakers, whether it's
Speaker 3: Bijon Drake London, John new Smith, any of those three guys. Really,
Speaker 3: I think they can move the ball and potentially get
Speaker 3: the upset here.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see if I can tempt you with
Speaker 1: the Detroit Baltimore game instead. This one's going to be
Speaker 1: in Baltimore. It's minus two and a half here for
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens. You're getting the plus two and a
Speaker 1: half at minus one oh five overrun DraftKings forty four
Speaker 1: is the number one fandal forty four and a half
Speaker 1: on DK if you like Detroit to win plus one
Speaker 1: twenty two. Very interesting case to be made. Some injuries though,
Speaker 1: to talk about David Montgomery questionable here. We'll see how
Speaker 1: that unfolds this week. I'm on Ross Brown, still working
Speaker 1: his way back from injury, but did have the touchdown.
Speaker 1: And Sam Laporta also a little banged up. So Detroit's
Speaker 1: kind of the walking wounded Baltimore coming back from travel.
Speaker 1: How do you see this? One's the early value in
Speaker 1: this game.
Speaker 3: This is another one that I don't see a ton
Speaker 3: of value, And actually I think I think Detroit is
Speaker 3: the play here. You know, we have a lot of
Speaker 3: strength on strength matchups in this game. You have the
Speaker 3: Detroit passing offense versus the Baltimore passing defense. But if
Speaker 3: you look at the quarterbacks that Baltimore has played so
Speaker 3: far this year, it was CJ. Stroud in his very
Speaker 3: first game and injured Joe Burrow, Gardner, Minshew, Dorian Thompson, Robinson,
Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Like, none of those really scream.
Speaker 3: You know, we're shutting down some explosive offenses. So I
Speaker 3: think Detroit can get it done. The Baltimore rushing offense
Speaker 3: versus Detroit's rushing defense, which is top five in rushing
Speaker 3: EPA for play and success rate, I think could make
Speaker 3: the difference here. The Baltimore passing offense still looks a
Speaker 3: little out of sorts. They just haven't clicked at all
Speaker 3: together yet. So I like Detroit to go in and
Speaker 3: bite some knee gaps and take home a road w Yeah.
Speaker 1: Look, I've had a hard time trusting the Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: all year, and that's why I'm kind of leaning towards
Speaker 1: the money line here with Detroit. I'd like to get
Speaker 1: some good reports on some players. But that being said,
Speaker 1: D is that where you're kind of leaning at this
Speaker 1: early stage as well?
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna take the opposite side of this
Speaker 2: game here.
Speaker 1: The argument I want to hear it.
Speaker 2: So Baltimore is not pressure on the quarterback, but they
Speaker 2: are an extremely good pass defense. I know who they've
Speaker 2: played has not been very good. But what are we
Speaker 2: talking about with the Lions here? If they are without
Speaker 2: David Montgomery, If Jamir Gibbs doesn't play in this game,
Speaker 2: Sam Laporte is banged up, what if he misses this game?
Speaker 2: You have Amarro, Sam Brown maybe, I mean Jamo's are
Speaker 2: not even running double digit routes right now, so you
Speaker 2: cannot go into Baltimore. If they decide they're going to
Speaker 2: make Detroit one dimensional enough to pass, Yeah, Detroit's been
Speaker 2: pretty good at that, but I still want to take
Speaker 2: the Ravens at home. If we get more word about
Speaker 2: David Montgomery out in this game, what happens to this spread?
Speaker 2: Does it lean more towards Baltimore? I think so? So
Speaker 2: right now, before that spread moves at all, I think
Speaker 2: I'd like to take Baltimore to cover. And I mean
Speaker 2: the money line's fine, you can bet that as well,
Speaker 2: But for me, it's mostly looking at the Ravens to
Speaker 2: cover this two and a half because I think it
Speaker 2: could get up to four if we get news that
Speaker 2: David Montgomery is definitively out, and if on top of
Speaker 2: that late week news that Jamier Gibbs misses this game.
Speaker 1: Now, we do have some huge marquee matchups here in
Speaker 1: Week six, some really exciting football games. This next one
Speaker 1: is not one of them. The Chicago Bears at one
Speaker 1: in five hosting the Las Vegas Raiders at three and three. Again,
Speaker 1: this is a choose yard adventure. The numbers three for
Speaker 1: the Vegas Raiders on the road against Chicago. I think
Speaker 1: it's unlikely we see justin Fields again, We're still waiting
Speaker 1: MRIs and imaging and all these things. Forty and a
Speaker 1: half is the number plus one thirty five, Derek, Look,
Speaker 1: I know this sounds easy to me. I think I
Speaker 1: just take the Vegas with the three right now, before
Speaker 1: we officially get the rule. Actually, this is one of
Speaker 1: the more intriguing lines jokes aside of early betting. Lock
Speaker 1: in the Raiders at the three and when the Fields
Speaker 1: news comes out, I think this number goes to four
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: Your thoughts, Yeah, I think go to four and a
Speaker 2: half or five, just depending on how how you know
Speaker 2: how much money comes in on that. I think the
Speaker 2: bets are for this game are pretty straightforward. I think
Speaker 2: it's the Raiders to cover lock in the minus three
Speaker 2: and I will happily take the under for this game
Speaker 2: as well. I mean we're not even talking about like
Speaker 2: maybe we don't get Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it's Aidan to O'Connell.
Speaker 2: It's it's Aim O'Connell versus Trace and Pagent in this game.
Speaker 1: That's true, This line.
Speaker 2: Is gonna go right, Like, I'm kind of surprised it's
Speaker 2: even open.
Speaker 1: So many injuries, Derek, I can't even I can't. We
Speaker 1: just did the Waiver podcast, Joe, I know, I know,
Speaker 1: I totally forgot about the Garppolo one in my head.
Speaker 1: And Sam, I mean back in but still, like I'm
Speaker 1: looking at the deficits of the Bears without justin fields,
Speaker 1: and like the first thing I'm thinking of is, well,
Speaker 1: what's the Max Crosby sack prop Like that's the first
Speaker 1: thing in my head. I want to go for that one.
Speaker 1: To me, that's the best bet you can make in
Speaker 1: this game, but it's too early to make it down.
Speaker 3: Look, if if you had told me that in week
Speaker 3: seven we were gonna get a potential Brian Hoyer versus
Speaker 3: Tyson Badger matchup, I mean, put it in the calendar
Speaker 3: book market like this is.
Speaker 2: Man like he's gonna he's gonna DVR this, like you
Speaker 2: have like a seal of this.
Speaker 3: On a serious note, so I do think it is
Speaker 3: gonna be Brian Hoyer. Jimmy Garoppolo can't play, and I
Speaker 3: think Hoyer is competent enough to get the ball in
Speaker 3: day Adams, Jakobe Myers, Josh Jacob's hands. Like these guys
Speaker 3: are their entire offense and they're moving the ball pretty well. Uh,
Speaker 3: you know, to your point, Max Crosby has been incredible
Speaker 3: this year once again, can wreck this Chicago Bears offensive line.
Speaker 3: I like the Raiders with the points here.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, it's crazy days out there with all these injuries.
Speaker 1: Speaking of injuries, we'll see if PJ. Walker makes his
Speaker 1: second start. I mean why not? I mean, heck, it
Speaker 1: was fun right. Indianapolis Colts are gonna host the Cleveland
Speaker 1: Browns here in this contest. The Cleveland Browns are one
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites Overrip at MGM. You can
Speaker 1: get Indianapolis at plus two and a half at minus
Speaker 1: one fifteen at FanDuel. The number for this game is
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half on fandle forty points bet
Speaker 1: Indianapolis one plus one ten. Excuse me on the money line, Sam,
Speaker 1: with Cleveland coming off a huge victory, Indianapolis coming off
Speaker 1: another disappointing loss. Man, the Jaguars just have their number
Speaker 1: for the last couple of seasons. It feels like they
Speaker 1: just keep sticking it to them over and over and
Speaker 1: over again. Is this a trap game? That's my number
Speaker 1: one question here? All that goodwill? Does it all go
Speaker 1: away when you go on the road here and Indy
Speaker 1: gets back at home and wins this football game? Because
Speaker 1: that's what the NFL feels like to me in Week
Speaker 1: seven right now.
Speaker 3: Well, you asked me about a trap game last week,
Speaker 3: and I profusely push that down, and.
Speaker 1: You did previously push that down. What what game was that? Again?
Speaker 2: Was the Brown I raise my hand.
Speaker 3: I did if you had told me that I was
Speaker 3: going to get six points of closingline value, I'm making
Speaker 3: that bet one hundred times out of one hundred. Okay,
Speaker 3: it was a tail out come. But in any case,
Speaker 3: I bet.
Speaker 1: The minus four and a half on Sanford. It was
Speaker 1: the right process was However, However, the right pivot is
Speaker 1: when you're watching these games live, you have this opportunity
Speaker 1: to to redeem yourself and look at some of these
Speaker 1: things and and I think that's one of the great
Speaker 1: things about live betting. And again, if you haven't already
Speaker 1: downloaded the betting pros, app get the best lines, you
Speaker 1: can set the game notifications, do all the right things,
Speaker 1: because if you're doing that, you know you can make
Speaker 1: a good educated investment and then see what's happening and
Speaker 1: developing in a game, and see the injuries and see
Speaker 1: the play and feel what's going on and make hedges
Speaker 1: that are really smart at times or profits in this
Speaker 1: case and this instance. But continue with Sam, keep telling
Speaker 1: me the story. I want to hear it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think I was sort of waiting
Speaker 3: for Cleveland's defense to show something against a top offense,
Speaker 3: and they did exactly that. Again San Francisco. Obviously we
Speaker 3: know San Francisco dealing with the injuries on offense to
Speaker 3: Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey and Debs Samuel, But even with
Speaker 3: them in the game, like they were just crushing them
Speaker 3: And I don't see how, you know, as fun as
Speaker 3: Garner Minshew is, they just don't even have the same
Speaker 3: level of playmakers as the forty nine ers. So I
Speaker 3: think Cleveland can cover this. I made this Cleveland by
Speaker 3: three to start, and if we get some positive news
Speaker 3: on Deshaun Watson again kind of a weird situation, then
Speaker 3: that move is excuse me, that line is going to
Speaker 3: move even more in favor of the Browns.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the Cleveland side too. Defense travels at
Speaker 1: the end of the day. We just talked about the
Speaker 1: defense on the Way We Wire podcast on Fantasy Bros. Derek,
Speaker 1: and you know they were only thirty percent rostered still
Speaker 1: and that's because they were coming off a bye and
Speaker 1: then people started dropping them because they are forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: Is gonna be ugly? Well it wasn't. I mean there,
Speaker 1: it's ugly, just a game ugly for a brock perty
Speaker 1: of times. But all jokes aside, Cleveland feels like the
Speaker 1: right side of this game to be on, and I
Speaker 1: think now is a really interesting time to jump on
Speaker 1: it before like Sam said, if you get more positive
Speaker 1: Cleveland injury news, a Kareem Hunt look good running the football,
Speaker 1: drum Ford has moments at the end of the game,
Speaker 1: Cooper made an amazing catch. They're like there were there
Speaker 1: were a lot of things to take away positively in
Speaker 1: this momentum. But again, it's like momentum stops every week
Speaker 1: when you get these crazy things and you go up. Well,
Speaker 1: so much for that momentum of Cleveland. I feel like
Speaker 1: this is a trap game, so I'm being very careful
Speaker 1: of it. This is like a one unit bet, but
Speaker 1: I think that unit is on Cleveland right now.
Speaker 2: Your thoughts, I'm with Sam. If this game would have
Speaker 2: been in Cleveland, this line would have opened at like
Speaker 2: minus three and a half probably for the Browns. So
Speaker 2: even though they're on the road, I'm totally fine betting
Speaker 2: the Browns one to cover. You want to attack their
Speaker 2: money line, that's fine too. I think this defense is
Speaker 2: gonna go into Indian slap the mustache off of Minshew's face.
Speaker 1: Okay, I like that. Los Angeles Rams are going to
Speaker 1: host the Pittsburgh Steelers, coming off there by minus three
Speaker 1: for the Rams at home, you get plus three and
Speaker 1: a half on the Pittsburgh Steelers at minus one fifteen
Speaker 1: at bet MGM, the three is at DK forty two
Speaker 1: and a half is a DK and if bandle as well,
Speaker 1: plus one forty six for the Steelers on the money line. Derek, Look,
Speaker 1: I think the Rams big question now is the injuries
Speaker 1: to that Backfieldkyen Williams, Ronnie Rivers both hurts, and now
Speaker 1: it's like Zach Evans. Now, I don't know if that
Speaker 1: matters so much because I feel like they're gonna throw
Speaker 1: the ball no matter what they want to do anyway.
Speaker 1: So that being said, your confidence tells me, Hey, let's
Speaker 1: get in on the Rams here, or do you want
Speaker 1: to wait and maybe people start betting the Pittsburgh side
Speaker 1: of this game and anticipating, oh no, so many injuries
Speaker 1: on the Rams.
Speaker 2: I just don't know how much that line's gonna move
Speaker 2: just based off of Kien Williams, Like if you had
Speaker 2: bigger news like it was Hooker, Cooper, Stafford somebody like that.
Speaker 2: I can't see the line moving that much for the Rams.
Speaker 2: I mean as far as in the Pittsburgh side. So really,
Speaker 2: I want to lock this in early. Give me the
Speaker 2: Rams to cover minus three. I don't want to do
Speaker 2: anything with the total because I just don't know how
Speaker 2: much pushback the Steelers are going to offer the Rams,
Speaker 2: and I mean their offense, their defense, pick whatever, pick
Speaker 2: whatever you pick your poison, their defense. This entire team
Speaker 2: has been a surprise this year, like the if the
Speaker 2: ball drops any other different directions, like, we could be
Speaker 2: talking about a four or five win team right now.
Speaker 2: So I think that they're going to easily take care
Speaker 2: of the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Sam, do you agree with Derek that this line probably
Speaker 1: is not going to move much all week long?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think so. I think this line is
Speaker 3: actually like spot on right now. And you mentioned the
Speaker 3: backfield injuries for the Rams. On the Pittsburgh side of
Speaker 3: the ball, it sounds like they're going to get Pat
Speaker 3: Friar Muth back. They could get Deontay Johnson back on
Speaker 3: offense as well. Larry Ogunjobi and TJ. Watt did go
Speaker 3: into their bye week with some injuries at the end
Speaker 3: of their pre bye week games.
Speaker 1: I'm fine.
Speaker 2: He already popped his faver back in the place. He's good.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it doesn't sound like they're going to miss any time,
Speaker 3: so that's good. But it is something too to monitor.
Speaker 3: We've seen that this Pittsburgh passing defense can be exploited,
Speaker 3: and the passing attack of the Rams is the best
Speaker 3: unit on that team. So I think that this line
Speaker 3: is spot on. I'm staying away right now, but I
Speaker 3: think this is going to be a really good matchup.
Speaker 1: Arizona at Seattle. Seattle seven and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: against Arizona. You can get Arizona plus eight and a
Speaker 1: half over on DK on the betting pros app right now.
Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is that number? Forty six
Speaker 1: and a half of the under on DK plus three
Speaker 1: ten for the Cardinals. Cardos are one and five. Look,
Speaker 1: you know they got a lot of moxie. They hang
Speaker 1: in there. Seattle defense not great sam But at the
Speaker 1: same time, do you think that the seven and a
Speaker 1: half is a little too big of a number.
Speaker 2: I don't think so.
Speaker 3: I think you know, you could tell that the Seahawks
Speaker 3: offensive line was struggling against Cincinnati, but Arizona is not
Speaker 3: nearly as a as ferocious of a d line. They
Speaker 3: have the worst pressure rate in the league. I think
Speaker 3: Kenneth Wager should be able to run all over this
Speaker 3: Arizona defense. You know you said the Seattle defense has
Speaker 3: been bad. Their run defense has been sneaky excellent this year.
Speaker 3: Their fifth in rushing EPA for play, first in success rate.
Speaker 1: In your opinion, are those excellent because everybody just wants
Speaker 1: to throw the ball on them? Or are they excellent
Speaker 1: on their own just out of curiosity? Because I think
Speaker 1: the plan of attack for Seattle is throw against them,
Speaker 1: So those numbers deflated because people want to attack them
Speaker 1: in the secondary.
Speaker 3: I'm sure that's part of it too, but they I
Speaker 3: don't know. I just think they're they're performing even if
Speaker 3: they are throwing against Seattle a ton like when they
Speaker 3: are running the ball, they're struggling to do so. So
Speaker 3: I don't think Arizona is going to be able to
Speaker 3: pass the ball super effectively against them. The Josh Dobbs
Speaker 3: hype has has sort of worn off a little bit
Speaker 3: in recent weeks.
Speaker 2: I'll double down with Sam here. I think it's because
Speaker 2: Seattle's run defense is actually really freaking good.
Speaker 1: Well, okay, I want to ask the question because I
Speaker 1: feel like that's we talked about a lot, like Derek
Speaker 1: when we do the Betting Pro Show. I mean, you
Speaker 1: see the DFS show on the Betting Pro Channel on Fridays,
Speaker 1: we always talk about like up Seattle, let's throw the
Speaker 1: ball against Seattle, you know, so I just wonder, you know,
Speaker 1: sometimes there's that you know, apples and our statistics sometimes
Speaker 1: where ye know, well are they really good at this?
Speaker 1: Or a people just not challenging.
Speaker 2: The gout, I mean the other part. And I wanted
Speaker 2: to double check this real fast. But you've got four
Speaker 2: five guys for Seattle grading out with seventy five or
Speaker 2: higher run defensive grades for the Seattle Seahawks. And one
Speaker 2: of those guys we haven't seen a whole lot of
Speaker 2: with Jamal Adams, so if he comes back, he's a
Speaker 2: full time guy. I think that their run defense actually
Speaker 2: goes up another here.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to Los Angeles and Kansas City. The
Speaker 1: Chiefs are five and one, they're at home. They're five
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Chargers. We'll see
Speaker 1: what the Chargers do tonight. Fifty one is the number
Speaker 1: on the total here plus two a five for the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers to win. These are typically pretty competitive games.
Speaker 1: We've seen Herbert really kind of show his best against
Speaker 1: Kansas City, which is fun to me, I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: write for that fifty one. I know it's tough for
Speaker 1: Kansas City lately. They seem like there's still a work
Speaker 1: in progress. They don't know who their favorite is. But
Speaker 1: you like the other side of this, You're going underneath.
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm going under. I'm going big down under on
Speaker 2: this game. The Kansas City defense has been elite. Lugerius
Speaker 2: Sneed is playing out of his freaking mind man like
Speaker 2: he is shadowed. I'm curious when I pull up the
Speaker 2: metrics this week. He's shadowed in almost every single game,
Speaker 2: and the laundry list of guys he is shut down
Speaker 2: has been awesome. So I'm looking at this game. This
Speaker 2: game screams the under. The only reason this the only
Speaker 2: reason this game has the to total that it has,
Speaker 2: is these two teams and their names and the name
Speaker 2: sexiness attached to them. Outside of that, if you look
Speaker 2: at what these two offenses have done, much as the
Speaker 2: Kansas City defense, there's so many routes and paths to
Speaker 2: the under in this game. That is the big, big
Speaker 2: play for me in this game.
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, your thoughts? Are you also in on
Speaker 1: the under in this one?
Speaker 2: I am?
Speaker 3: I mean again, the name value, with the quarterbacks Justin
Speaker 3: Herbert and Patrick Mahomes obviously driving this total up. But
Speaker 3: like I mentioned earlier in the show, I think Kansas
Speaker 3: City has a top five defense. They're top eight in
Speaker 3: EPA per play, success rate EPA per drive. Their passing
Speaker 3: defense is third in EPA per play and second in
Speaker 3: success rate, so they've been able to slow down some
Speaker 3: of these passing attacks. Their rushing defenses is still a
Speaker 3: big concern. They're twenty ninth and rushing EPA per play.
Speaker 3: But if the Chiefs defense can hold this Chargers offense,
Speaker 3: and then on the flip side again, we've talked about
Speaker 3: the Kansas City offense struggling like they didn't do much
Speaker 3: against a terrible Broncos defense on Thursday night. Now Andy
Speaker 3: Reid with the extra time to prepare and maybe realizing
Speaker 3: you shouldn't be playing with his food as much as
Speaker 3: he did on Thursday night changes things. But I like
Speaker 3: Kansas City to cover this spread. I think their defense,
Speaker 3: combined with their offense getting a little bit of extra time,
Speaker 3: will help them cover.
Speaker 2: Playing with bringing Bo that was nice.
Speaker 1: We're going to jokes today.
Speaker 2: I like that, man, I'm here for it, Sam, I
Speaker 2: got a quick question, man, if before we get to
Speaker 2: this next one, if you just took the name Cache
Speaker 2: out of these quarterbacks and these offenses and just look
Speaker 2: at what they were doing this season, doesn't this feel
Speaker 2: like a game that should be like forty seven and
Speaker 2: a half ish, if not maybe a little bit lower
Speaker 2: based off all what these teams have actually done this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you're sort of I think the lines are
Speaker 3: the line for the total is possibly baking in. Okay,
Speaker 3: maybe this is the week for the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: To have a click.
Speaker 3: But again, yeah, they're offering hasn't been great.
Speaker 1: It hasn't been Look, that is absolutely accurate. It hasn't
Speaker 1: been great. They are working progress. However, Look, I think
Speaker 1: you can't just say if you take the quarterbacks away,
Speaker 1: because this is a quarterback league and those two quarterbacks
Speaker 1: are capable of putting on a show. And that's why
Speaker 1: if this number was fifty three and a half, I'd
Speaker 1: probably be more where you are, because last year they
Speaker 1: were a fifty four and fifty one for the two
Speaker 1: games they played against each other. Fifty one is just
Speaker 1: right for me, And I'm like, Okay, I'm comfortable with
Speaker 1: the over at fifty one. If you started to push
Speaker 1: it to fifty three and a half or somewhere like that. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's where I'm out on that one. It's a razor
Speaker 1: thin margin. Speaking of razor thin margins for error, the
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos are at one in five. They're gonna host
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. The Packers you get minus one
Speaker 1: at points bet for Denver you get plus two over
Speaker 1: on DK. Forty four and a half is the number
Speaker 1: on bet MGM forty five at FanDuel. If you like
Speaker 1: Denver to get another victory, a plus one ten a DK,
Speaker 1: you can go bet that. Sam, what are your thoughts
Speaker 1: on this one? You're a Packer guy, Jordan Love not
Speaker 1: coming off a really good performance, so your thoughts.
Speaker 3: The Packers need Aaron Jones back. I mean, I don't
Speaker 3: want to put a ton of value into a single
Speaker 3: running back, but AJ Dillon has played not well this year,
Speaker 3: and they just need some explosiveness back in that offense.
Speaker 3: As of this morning, Jones was practicing, so that's good
Speaker 3: to see. I believe Darnell Savage was practicing and kway
Speaker 3: Walker was doing some stuff off to the side. But
Speaker 3: I like the under here. The Broncos defense hasn't been
Speaker 3: very good, but need it just these offenses are sort
Speaker 3: of sputtering at times this year. The Packers got off
Speaker 3: to a hot start but have quickly regressed past the
Speaker 3: mean to be honest, and I think even though Denver
Speaker 3: can't get much pressure on the quarterback, they'll be enough
Speaker 3: to keep this one under.
Speaker 1: All Right, Derek, your thoughts on this one before you
Speaker 1: go to the two games that everybody really is excited about.
Speaker 2: I think Sam brought it up a point that I
Speaker 2: wanted to hit on this. With Denver having a bottoms,
Speaker 2: I won't say that there's sixth worst in pressure rate
Speaker 2: this year, and that's been the Achilles Hill for Jordan Love.
Speaker 2: He just melts under pressure. And at Denver their pass
Speaker 2: rush can't get home. I like the Packers to win
Speaker 2: this game. I do lean towards the under just because
Speaker 2: of how both of these teams have played. But the
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones news I think could swing a little bit.
Speaker 2: We were talking about with Kyron Williams a little bit.
Speaker 2: So if you wanted to take the Packers to cover
Speaker 2: and win this game outright, I don't hate the money
Speaker 2: liner to them covering the spread.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to Miami at Philadelphia. This is
Speaker 1: a good one here, Sunday Night football. Let's go. The
Speaker 1: Eagles are minus two and a half point favorites of
Speaker 1: this one over on DK at minus won ten. Fifty
Speaker 1: two and a half is the number on FanDuel fifty
Speaker 1: three over on DK. If you like the under, you
Speaker 1: get my aami a plus one twenty five. So, look,
Speaker 1: Miami's had some injuries here with the backfield. We know
Speaker 1: that Tyreek Hill had that cramp issue. But look, this
Speaker 1: is a historically good offense for the Miami Dolphins, like
Speaker 1: we're talking about all time great is what we've seen
Speaker 1: so far. Derek Brown, is that going to travel to
Speaker 1: Philadelphia in your opinion? And if so, do we just
Speaker 1: take Miami on the money line and plus one twenty
Speaker 1: five or do we see the Eagles after a bad
Speaker 1: loss get right here against Miami.
Speaker 2: I could see either one of these teams pulling this
Speaker 2: win out. And I'm kind of surprised, Like I think
Speaker 2: this spread should be a little bit closer than what
Speaker 2: it is. I just want to take that. I want
Speaker 2: to hit the over for this game. And because you're
Speaker 2: telling me Philly is going to force the Dolphins to
Speaker 2: be more pass heavy because they are a pass funnel. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 2: fine two is gonna take to the ear Tyreek Waddle,
Speaker 2: let's go and Philly can CounterPunch. Philly can push this
Speaker 2: off sh of course again, so I'm all on, look,
Speaker 2: I understand this is at fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2: I don't give a crap man, Like both these teams
Speaker 2: could put up a ton of points. I want to
Speaker 2: hit the over and I want to stay away from
Speaker 2: the spread and the money lines on this one.
Speaker 1: How about you, Sam? How do you see this one?
Speaker 1: Because this is the marquee matchup, is the standalone game?
Speaker 1: Is gonna be a lot of betting on it. Do
Speaker 1: you want to go ahead and be on the Miami side,
Speaker 1: the Philly side, or just the side of the over?
Speaker 3: I'm on the Miami side here. Philadelphia is struggling with
Speaker 3: some injuries in the secondary. Reblankenship left early, Bradley Roby
Speaker 3: left the game earlier. Dale Darius Slay did not play
Speaker 3: like who is going to cover Tyreek Hill and Jalen
Speaker 3: Waddle Like it doesn't matter no, Like Ladon Johnson left
Speaker 3: the game early as well, which is a huge potential
Speaker 3: loss for a Philadelphia offensive line that is potentially the
Speaker 3: best in the league. The Philadelphia pass rush has not
Speaker 3: been phenomenal. They are fifteenth in pressure rate this year.
Speaker 3: So I like the Dolphins money line.
Speaker 1: All right. Last one here, San Francisco forty nine Ers,
Speaker 1: another team coming off their loss. Man the Eagles had
Speaker 1: just beaten the Jets, they would be right at the
Speaker 1: top of that NFC where looking down at everybody. They
Speaker 1: did not handle their business either did the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1: They're gonna go play the Minnesota Vikings. They are now
Speaker 1: two and four. Look, the Vikings are not great, so
Speaker 1: one would imagine here that San France should go in
Speaker 1: there and take care of Minnesota and maybe take out
Speaker 1: their aggression. But Sam, the numbers a good size. It's
Speaker 1: seven here, Christian McCaffrey questionable for this game as of
Speaker 1: recording this. Forty four and a half is the number
Speaker 1: for this contest. Minnesota plus two sixty is a big
Speaker 1: number on the money line. So I guess at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, this is just a question of
Speaker 1: you know, the San fran in your opinion, just bounce
Speaker 1: right back. I mean, they did have losses on the
Speaker 1: offensive line side to a lot going on here. For
Speaker 1: San fran Do you think that really affects Party on
Speaker 1: the road against Minnesota two consecutive ro games.
Speaker 3: Too, Yeah, I think it could. I mean the discourse
Speaker 3: with Rock Party this week, who be interesting to follow, but.
Speaker 1: Take all the toys away all of a sudden, He's
Speaker 1: not Tom Brady too anymore. He's not Tom Brady two
Speaker 1: point maybe, so I do think, go on.
Speaker 2: Geez, he did.
Speaker 3: And I think something under discussed is obviously the Trent
Speaker 3: Williams entry. He apparently was seen wearing a walking boot
Speaker 3: out of the game. Now that's not a death sentence
Speaker 3: by any means, but this man Minnesota defense hasn't been
Speaker 3: as terrible as expected, at least going into the season.
Speaker 3: They're obviously not the Browns defense by any stretch of
Speaker 3: the matter. But this is what I'm staying away from
Speaker 3: for right now. Potentially could use it in a teaser leg,
Speaker 3: teasing San Francisco down to a point and a half
Speaker 3: or something, depending on on the line. I don't really know. Again,
Speaker 3: I'm having some trust issues with the forty nine ers
Speaker 3: right now, as you can possibly probably tell. But it
Speaker 3: also is Kirk Cousins in prime time, and he has
Speaker 3: struggled in those situations. So I'm staying away for right now.
Speaker 3: I do think this is a really interesting matchup, though.
Speaker 1: I think it's an interesting one from a prop standpoint.
Speaker 1: The game itself. That's the one where I struggle here,
Speaker 1: because you know, it's not that I don't have faith
Speaker 1: in the forty nine ers, it's just it's a weird
Speaker 1: scenario now with the injuries on top of it, and
Speaker 1: the walking boat's never a good thing. I mean, walking
Speaker 1: boat typically means you ain't playing this week at the
Speaker 1: very least. So Derek, your thoughts on this one as
Speaker 1: we close out Week seven look ahead?
Speaker 2: I all these lines are really good. They're really a
Speaker 2: spot on the spread of the totals. I want to
Speaker 2: stay away from those. I do. I don't want to
Speaker 2: sound like I'm insane here, but I do see a
Speaker 2: scenario where the Vikings could win this game if you
Speaker 2: look at how their defense stacks up against this. If
Speaker 2: no Trent Williams this week, we don't get debo, he
Speaker 2: doesn't have CMC, and the Vikings are blitzing at the
Speaker 2: highest rate in the league. If that pressure gets home
Speaker 2: and their pressure rates are going up, you're talking about
Speaker 2: a defense that started the year bottom three in pressure rate.
Speaker 2: Now they're up to middle in the road. Like this
Speaker 2: defense is finding itself a little bit and I think
Speaker 2: at home as well. If this game was in San Francisco,
Speaker 2: I feel a little bit better about this. But there
Speaker 2: are avenues for the Vikings defense to take this home
Speaker 2: for them, especially as banged up as the forty nine
Speaker 2: ers are, because the Vikings run defense has been top
Speaker 2: ten this year. So if you can make them one dimensional,
Speaker 2: you can blitz brock perty And we saw what happened
Speaker 2: last week and the only toys that he has to
Speaker 2: play with is Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna tell you that I'm betting the Minnesota Vikings money
Speaker 2: line right now, but it is really freaking intriguing, all right.
Speaker 1: I want to hear what everybody else is in on,
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