WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 7 NFL Game (Ep. 362) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:03.120 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:05.640 your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pie Zapia and 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:07.440 it's Monday. You know what that means. It's time to 0:00:07.480 --> 0:00:10.600 look ahead to Week seven in the NFL. And maybe 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:12.480 that's a good thing for a lot of teams that 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:15.040 were overlooking their opponents. In Week six, we had some 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:18.960 massive upsets. The Cleveland Brown's upset, the San Francisco forty 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:21.520 nine Ers, the New York Jets, and Zach Wilson. That's right, 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:25.080 that Zach Wilson beat the Philadelphia Eagles. So it's a crazy, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.280 crazy week that we are trying to recover from. Lucky 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.040 for me, despite the fact my favorite thing all week, 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:34.320 Derek Brown, was the the four and a half we 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:36.199 locked in early on this show last week on the 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.800 forty nine Ers. I felt so good about that until 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:41.400 I started watching that game and watching the forty nine 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.840 ers slowly implode upon themselves, then the injuries take their toll. 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:49.280 I bet the Browns hard at plus four point fifty 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:52.040 live and I stuck with it. I was offered a 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:55.400 cash out debro and I said, no, I'm gonna see 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:57.840 this rookie kicker all the way through the end. I 0:00:57.920 --> 0:00:59.840 told my dad. I was like, look, we're gonna rerooting 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:01.960 for the Brown's ear. We watch it all the way 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:03.800 to the end. He missed the kick. It saved my 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:08.559 entire day. Thank you, Cleveland Browns. And here's to live betting. 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:11.000 What a beautiful thing, Derek Brown, Sam hop and joining 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:14.959 us to look ahead, deebro it was a crazy week six. 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:16.240 I'm happy to turn the page. 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:19.800 I don't know about you, very very happy. And to 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.160 turn the page, I need Monday night to go pretty well, 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.360 to end up above fifty percent for bets. So just 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:28.520 a bloodbath on bets. And I was watching the same game, Joe, 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.600 and because of where I'm at, I wasn't able to 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:34.400 live Bett and Hedge. I would that is the sharpest 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:36.880 all get out call. But I'm watching it with my kids, 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.160 and my kids go, hey, Dad, who we want to win? 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.200 And I was like, we really want the forty nine 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:42.400 ers to win right now? 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:44.360 Yeah, then we want them to win. 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.120 And I was like, okay, all I need is for 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:49.160 them to drive the distance of the field and then 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:50.880 we get the cover for the four and a half. 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:53.760 So I need it and we didn't. We didn't know 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:55.320 any that did not happen. 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.840 Sam. I was texting with Derek during this game, saying, Oh, 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.240 I'm just so good for the Browns. Every time something 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.639 good happened for them. I kept texted in BJ Walker, 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:07.120 PJ Walker. Sam, you mentioned to me before the show started, 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:09.560 you're not sure if any team is good in the NFL. 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:11.360 Who's the best team in the NFL right now? If 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:12.120 I had to ask. 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:14.480 You, it's probably the Chiefs. 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:16.919 I mean, like at this point, you got to give 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:19.920 them the benefit of the doubt. With Patrick Mahomes. Their 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:21.920 defense we'll talk about later. I think is a top 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:26.520 five defense right now, and they have Andy Reid. I mean, 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:29.600 it's it's them, or it's still probably the forty nine 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:32.200 ers I think up top. I think again, going against 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:35.160 one of the best defenses, if not now the best 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:39.480 defense in the league, there was just a sort of 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.360 a tail outcome for them on offense. 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:46.080 So all right, well, we're going to try to pick 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.359 up the pieces from week six, move on to week 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:50.680 seven before we do a little bit of housekeeping. You know, 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:52.320 we like to give away free things here, so it's 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:55.040 time to give away that. Odell Beckham jersey again the 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.480 Ravens own thanks to Betting Pros. So the big winner 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:03.120 of the Ravens jersey is you, Casey Phillips. Congratulations, Casey Phillips. 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:05.320 Get in touch with us over at Mailbag at Bettingpros 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:08.000 dot com with your mailing address, proof of your subscription 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.320 to Betting Pros YouTube channel, and we'll get that jersey 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:13.040 shipped out to you again. Casey Phillips, hit us up 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:17.920 at Mailbag at Bettingpros dot com and with one giveaway gone, 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:21.200 another one begins. So it's time to throw in your 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:23.840 hat for this one. Brace yourselves if you want a 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:27.480 chance to win this. Robert Tuny in Chicago bears jersey 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.200 courtesy of Bettingpros dot com. That's right, This is all 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.640 you gotta do. Subscribe to Betting Pros YouTube channel. Drop 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:37.120 your comments below, ring that bell to lit goos ding. 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:39.560 I mean you just want to talk about rare jerseys. 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:41.960 A signed Robert tanyan jersey took time out of his 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:45.080 busy schedule to sign it for you. So there you 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:47.600 have it. Everybody, go win that jersey again. Subscribe to 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.080 the YouTube channel, drop a comment below. Heck, if you win, 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.000 you can give it to fat Pat Fitzmorris as a 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:55.280 gag gift for all I care. It's hilarious. Go get 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:58.360 it right now. All right, let's start at Thursday night 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:01.720 football uncertainty of the Jaguars because one of the many 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:04.680 injuries is Trevor Lawrence. We're dealing with that right now. 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.400 So New Orleans at plus one and a half underdogs 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.080 at home minus one fifteen over at bet MGM minus 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:13.000 point five. Right now you can get Jacksonville points. Bet 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:15.560 the numbers forty one and a half. The money line 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:18.280 is minus money basically right there around one hundred one 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:20.240 h two to one ten, depending on where you look. 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:22.760 Sam Hoppin, do you see any early value in this game? 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.479 You want to jump on this maybe before you get 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.599 clarity with the injury to Lawrence, if it goes in 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.320 the right direction, and maybe get some value. 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.080 I don't. This is a real tricky one. Obviously you 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:38.960 mentioned Trevor Lawrence dealing with some injury issues that the 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:43.799 market right now I think is pessimistic on Lawrence playing 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.279 this game. I think in an out of conference game 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.960 Thursday night, short week, they maybe exercise some caution with Lawrence. 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:56.279 They also lost Tyson Campbell their top cornerback and Brandon 0:04:56.320 --> 0:05:01.320 Shurf their top lineman against the cold this past week. 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:04.800 So they're dealing with a number of injuries, not just 0:05:04.880 --> 0:05:08.640 to Trevor Lawrence. And so this is one that just 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:11.600 I think screams under for me right now. It's Alwaukee 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:14.960 Thursday Night football. Both defenses, I think are our top 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:19.200 ten in the league. The Saints offense has sputtered quite 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:22.719 a bit in recent games, so I think with the 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:26.479 Jacksonville run defense being very strong against a Saints tief 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.840 team that wants to run the ball, it won't lead 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.320 to many points on Thursday Night football. 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.080 All right, coming off a tough loss there in Houston, 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:40.000 do you think that New Orleans takes advantage of this 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.440 home field that they have in a Jacksonville Jags team 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.080 that's a little banged upty? Or what do you see here? 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:47.440 Or you're just looking for the under Like Sam said. 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:50.280 I think the unders in play, but give me I'll 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:51.880 look for the Saints to cover in this one, and 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:54.799 I want the Saints money line not only playing at home. 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.000 This game is another one we get more news on 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:01.359 Trevor Lawrence, Like if he misses this game, spread's gonna tilt, 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:03.320 it's gonna go in New Orleans favor. I want to 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.120 be ahead of that. And yeah, I mean I think 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:10.080 the Saints win this game. So if I'm I think 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:13.000 this money again, if any Lawrence news drops, I think 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:15.359 this moves more in the Saints favor And I like 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:17.440 the Saints at home. There's so many different parts of 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:21.440 pieces the Saints offense. Also, this last week against the 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:24.640 Texans showed a few more signs of getting right, and 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.840 Jacksonville has been a massive pass funnel this year. I 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:29.760 think Derek Carr can walk away with another good game. 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:32.880 Next up is the Giants at home, coming off another loss. 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:34.960 There now one in five, maybe that call should have 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.120 gone their way. We can argue that all day. They 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:40.159 are two point underdogs at home to Washington minus one 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.159 and a half, and get that number over on fandle 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:45.000 right now, the number is anywhere from forty to forty 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:46.919 and a half right now, if you like the Giants 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:49.599 to pull out this in division win at home plus 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.960 one ten. Now, they did get Saquon back last week, 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.000 this yesterday really last week, but still the same thing. 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.560 But Derek, you know, the Giants continue to struggle to 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.359 get w year, Sam Howe, and Washington coming off a 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:04.640 big road wind. You seeing the early value on this 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.120 line here between the Commanders and the Giants. 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:09.440 Give me the Giants money line. And I know I'm 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:11.960 talking about a one in five team, but we just 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.240 saw them go toe to toe with the Buffalo Bills. 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:18.360 Tyrod actually moving this offense going against the Commanders and 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.320 they get them at home if that defense can stack 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:25.160 another good week. And Washington's offensive line has been abysmal. 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:28.280 The Giants pass rush is nothing. To sit here and 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.600 snub your nose at so they can get pressure after 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:32.640 Sam Howe, who I gotta go look at it. I 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.360 still think he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL. 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.320 I will happily take the Giants money line A plus 0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:38.960 money right now. 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:41.760 I'm a sucker for those eighties throwbacks that Giants were 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.120 wearing last night. They looked so good. It looks so good. 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:45.640 It's so good, and look they left it all out 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:47.360 there in the field. They gave it everything against the 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.560 Buffalo Bills. In your opinion, Sam, do you see any 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.200 value early on in this New York Washington game? 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:58.280 Yeah, not really. I originally made this line Washington by 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:01.040 two and a half. I'd really don't think whether it's 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:04.800 Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor, that the line changes all 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.440 that much. You know, you think about the randomness of 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:11.480 the NFL, like if that end of half scenario goes 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:14.680 differently for the Giants and then they are in field 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:17.640 goal range to potentially win that game. Like, I don't 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.680 know if we're talking about them that differently, but it 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.360 does talk to the randomness a bit. The Giants do 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:28.320 blitz a ton on defense, and Sam however, versus the 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.040 blitz has been terribly as a fifty three zero point 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:34.920 five PFF grade, which is twenty eighth among qualifying quarterbacks. 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:37.959 So I think the Giants might be to play here, 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:43.000 but it's it's an indivision game that I just I 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.000 don't know. I'd rather not. 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:48.080 No, I can understand that, And look, I think the 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:50.439 only difference was if they had won that game last night. 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.000 You build a little momentum of confidence, like, hey, we 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:55.240 got saque back, we got a huge road victory. We're 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.680 gonna come home in division game and get back on track. 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.240 Now you're gonna see what Brian Dabole Coach of the 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:02.920 Year is worth because now You're gonna know how he 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.000 motivates these guys. Are they are you one and five 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:06.959 in your quitting or are you one in five? Are 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:08.400 you're fighting next week? So this is gonna be an 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.400 interesting game, but again one to bet on. That's the 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.800 tricky part. Buffalo, the aforementioned is gonna head to New England. 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:15.920 Boy do they stink? I keep making money against the 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.480 Patriots every single week. I'm a Patriots fan who's at 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:22.360 twenty plus years of glory and now I'm making money 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:25.000 off the downside. So I mean, it's it's just nothing 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:27.800 but winning. It feels like, uh, this is I thought 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:29.960 this number would be ten right now it's at nine 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.679 nine and a half over at bet MGM you can 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.160 get this one. Of course, New England is underdogs at home. 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.480 Buffalo usually blows the doors off New England most of 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.120 these games lately. Anyway, Forty two and a half is 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:43.640 the number. If you like New England for the upset, 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:46.440 and I don't, it's plus three thirty over a points bet. 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:49.199 I think this number of the nine. Look, I don't 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:50.720 want to take too much out of last night, Sam 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.679 in terms of the Buffalo offense, especially after you had 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.319 that moment with Damian Harris, you know, getting hurt. I 0:09:56.400 --> 0:10:00.560 think the shades of that moment reminding everybody of last 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.480 year with Hamlin. I think that was a lot for 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.360 that team mentally. So I think they just go in here, 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:07.960 beat the crap out of the New England Patriots, and 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:09.360 I think this nine is safe to you. 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.400 Yeah, I mean, really a tough situation with Damian and Harris. 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:18.320 Hope he's okay, but absolutely, I think the Bills can 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:22.840 cover here. Their four man rush on defense is so lethal. 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:25.320 I mean they have the sixth highest pressure rate but 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:27.760 only the twenty ninth highest blitzer rate, so they are 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.880 getting after the quarterback with just four guys. The Bill's 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:34.040 defense is a little bit boom or bust for this reason. 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:38.520 When the pass pass protection can hold up on the 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.960 other side, the team can you know, give up some 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:47.280 bigger plays. But New England has nothing on offense that's explosive. 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:50.480 I mean, it just looks really bad. They had gone 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:54.040 I think like twenty seven straight drives without scoring a point, 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.560 you know, a bajillion drives without even getting into the 0:10:56.600 --> 0:11:00.440 red zone, like it was. It's not been good for them, 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.559 and I think the Bills can cover this one pretty easily. 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:06.880 I do too. In fact, I want to lock it 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:08.480 in now because I think it's only going to grow 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:10.199 as time goes. I think people are gonna bet the 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:12.520 Bills hard early on. I think this is gonna go 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:14.880 to double digits easily. And I might even tease this 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.080 one too, Like, I just feel like that, uh de bro, 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:21.040 your take on New England Buffalo offense not good for 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:22.920 the Patriots defense not much better? 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:25.520 Yeah, I mean that the Patriots are just an isore 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:29.400 right now. It's really bad. I don't disagree that. I 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:31.600 think that Buffalo can cover this. The only thing that 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.480 I think could could drag this to where Buffalo doesn't 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:38.559 cover is the Bills have a really bad run defense. 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:41.240 This is a perfect spot New England at home inter 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:44.959 division game for them to slow things down. Feed mare 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:49.600 feed zeke, drag this game to the under and to 0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:52.200 be honest, like I maybe the under is the only 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:54.240 way that I want to attack this. But outside of that, 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:55.960 I'm staying away from the spread and everything else. 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:59.080 The mac Jones turnovers too. I mean that first interception 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:01.040 he three yesterday was so bad. It was such a 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:05.400 bad bad desis It's just broken there like and the 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.040 Buffalo Bills are gonna have turnovers in this game. I'm 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.000 staying away from the over under. I'm just going straight 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:11.720 to the Bills. That's all I'm doing here. Let's go 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:15.120 straight to Tampa Bay. It's much warmer there. Let's go 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.720 to Tampa. They are three and two. They are minus 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:19.840 two and a half. You're at home. The Atlanta Falcons 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:21.600 come in at plus three over a points. Bet the 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:23.120 minus two and a half. You can get a fan 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.120 duel forty is this number on DK thirty nine and 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.280 a half over if you like that one over at 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:31.760 bet MGM and then plus one thirty for the Falcons 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:34.840 to win outright. So the Falcons got their first home 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.160 loss in a while, for the first home loss of 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.760 Desmuner's career. Can the Falcons get back on track here? 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:43.320 De bro or do you think that Tampa kind of 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:48.120 recovers from Sunday's butt kicking by the Detroit Lions and 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:49.680 and actually win this football game? 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.080 I like the Falcons in this one. Give me their lot, 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.040 their bunny line. I think the total and the spread 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:57.960 are pretty spot on. But I do think the Falcons 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.680 can go into Tampa and win this game. Defense still 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.040 playing good. There's still pressure in the quarterback. Well, we 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.000 know that break Baker Mayfield can fall apart, and he's 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.440 been surprisingly good versus pressure this year. But I think 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:11.839 that you're looking at the outside doo of these corners. 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.160 We still haven't seen a just monster blow up game 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:20.559 from Bijon Robinson. So it's coming one of these weeks. 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.600 I'm not going to rule it out that it's against Tampa. 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:26.480 All right, Pat, This line is basically choose your own adventures. 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:27.679 So how do you want to choose it? 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:35.600 First of all, I think Atlanta struggles on early downs defensively, 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:40.120 but Tampa Bay struggles on early downs offensively. So I 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.280 think that I don't know, it's just one. I don't 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.960 We have so many question marks in these games in 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:51.680 this slate that I just none of it really weren't 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:52.840 much opportunity. 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:53.600 Yeah, it doesn't. 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.400 If it doesn't work much opportunity, then it sounds like 0:13:56.440 --> 0:14:01.480 you're thinking about unders when it comes to this forty'. 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.440 I mean, yeah, forty points is a lot for these teams. 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.720 I mean, Tampa Bay is a pass final defense. But 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:08.240 Desmond Rider has struggled. He had the one good game 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.559 last week, but I think he just needs to get 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.400 the ball in the hands of his playmakers, whether it's 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:18.040 Bijon Drake London, John new Smith, any of those three guys. Really, 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.680 I think they can move the ball and potentially get 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:22.400 the upset here. 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:24.720 All right, let's see if I can tempt you with 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:27.080 the Detroit Baltimore game instead. This one's going to be 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.960 in Baltimore. It's minus two and a half here for 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.840 the Baltimore Ravens. You're getting the plus two and a 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.000 half at minus one oh five overrun DraftKings forty four 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:37.840 is the number one fandal forty four and a half 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.200 on DK if you like Detroit to win plus one 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.200 twenty two. Very interesting case to be made. Some injuries though, 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.360 to talk about David Montgomery questionable here. We'll see how 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:50.000 that unfolds this week. I'm on Ross Brown, still working 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:51.920 his way back from injury, but did have the touchdown. 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:54.560 And Sam Laporta also a little banged up. So Detroit's 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:58.960 kind of the walking wounded Baltimore coming back from travel. 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.360 How do you see this? One's the early value in 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:01.800 this game. 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:05.840 This is another one that I don't see a ton 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:09.000 of value, And actually I think I think Detroit is 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.560 the play here. You know, we have a lot of 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.760 strength on strength matchups in this game. You have the 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:19.400 Detroit passing offense versus the Baltimore passing defense. But if 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.640 you look at the quarterbacks that Baltimore has played so 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:23.800 far this year, it was CJ. Stroud in his very 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:28.400 first game and injured Joe Burrow, Gardner, Minshew, Dorian Thompson, Robinson, 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.880 Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Like, none of those really scream. 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:37.080 You know, we're shutting down some explosive offenses. So I 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:41.080 think Detroit can get it done. The Baltimore rushing offense 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:46.360 versus Detroit's rushing defense, which is top five in rushing 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:50.640 EPA for play and success rate, I think could make 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:54.840 the difference here. The Baltimore passing offense still looks a 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:58.680 little out of sorts. They just haven't clicked at all 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:02.840 together yet. So I like Detroit to go in and 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:07.640 bite some knee gaps and take home a road w Yeah. 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:09.960 Look, I've had a hard time trusting the Baltimore Ravens 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.440 all year, and that's why I'm kind of leaning towards 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.320 the money line here with Detroit. I'd like to get 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:16.200 some good reports on some players. But that being said, 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:18.520 D is that where you're kind of leaning at this 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:19.520 early stage as well? 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:21.920 I think I'm gonna take the opposite side of this 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:23.480 game here. 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:24.560 The argument I want to hear it. 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:27.200 So Baltimore is not pressure on the quarterback, but they 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.640 are an extremely good pass defense. I know who they've 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:34.480 played has not been very good. But what are we 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.600 talking about with the Lions here? If they are without 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.480 David Montgomery, If Jamir Gibbs doesn't play in this game, 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.720 Sam Laporte is banged up, what if he misses this game? 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.840 You have Amarro, Sam Brown maybe, I mean Jamo's are 0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:49.920 not even running double digit routes right now, so you 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.240 cannot go into Baltimore. If they decide they're going to 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:55.240 make Detroit one dimensional enough to pass, Yeah, Detroit's been 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.080 pretty good at that, but I still want to take 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:00.560 the Ravens at home. If we get more word about 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:03.640 David Montgomery out in this game, what happens to this spread? 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.480 Does it lean more towards Baltimore? I think so? So 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:09.760 right now, before that spread moves at all, I think 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.280 I'd like to take Baltimore to cover. And I mean 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:14.520 the money line's fine, you can bet that as well, 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.280 But for me, it's mostly looking at the Ravens to 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:19.679 cover this two and a half because I think it 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.320 could get up to four if we get news that 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.560 David Montgomery is definitively out, and if on top of 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:28.639 that late week news that Jamier Gibbs misses this game. 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.240 Now, we do have some huge marquee matchups here in 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.920 Week six, some really exciting football games. This next one 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:37.000 is not one of them. The Chicago Bears at one 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:41.440 in five hosting the Las Vegas Raiders at three and three. Again, 0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:44.280 this is a choose yard adventure. The numbers three for 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.360 the Vegas Raiders on the road against Chicago. I think 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:49.840 it's unlikely we see justin Fields again, We're still waiting 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.639 MRIs and imaging and all these things. Forty and a 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:56.680 half is the number plus one thirty five, Derek, Look, 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.320 I know this sounds easy to me. I think I 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:02.159 just take the Vegas with the three right now, before 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.760 we officially get the rule. Actually, this is one of 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:08.320 the more intriguing lines jokes aside of early betting. Lock 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:11.520 in the Raiders at the three and when the Fields 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:13.200 news comes out, I think this number goes to four 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:13.520 and a half. 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:15.760 Your thoughts, Yeah, I think go to four and a 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.239 half or five, just depending on how how you know 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.480 how much money comes in on that. I think the 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.800 bets are for this game are pretty straightforward. I think 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:25.040 it's the Raiders to cover lock in the minus three 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.360 and I will happily take the under for this game 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.280 as well. I mean we're not even talking about like 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:33.040 maybe we don't get Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it's Aidan to O'Connell. 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.640 It's it's Aim O'Connell versus Trace and Pagent in this game. 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:39.400 That's true, This line. 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.400 Is gonna go right, Like, I'm kind of surprised it's 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:42.840 even open. 0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:45.439 So many injuries, Derek, I can't even I can't. We 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.520 just did the Waiver podcast, Joe, I know, I know, 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.200 I totally forgot about the Garppolo one in my head. 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:56.480 And Sam, I mean back in but still, like I'm 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:59.919 looking at the deficits of the Bears without justin fields, 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:01.840 and like the first thing I'm thinking of is, well, 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:04.120 what's the Max Crosby sack prop Like that's the first 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.280 thing in my head. I want to go for that one. 0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:07.720 To me, that's the best bet you can make in 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:09.359 this game, but it's too early to make it down. 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:13.880 Look, if if you had told me that in week 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:17.600