1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,120 Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pie Zapia and 3 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: it's Monday. You know what that means. It's time to 4 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: look ahead to Week seven in the NFL. And maybe 5 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: that's a good thing for a lot of teams that 6 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: were overlooking their opponents. In Week six, we had some 7 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: massive upsets. The Cleveland Brown's upset, the San Francisco forty 8 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: nine Ers, the New York Jets, and Zach Wilson. That's right, 9 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: that Zach Wilson beat the Philadelphia Eagles. So it's a crazy, 10 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: crazy week that we are trying to recover from. Lucky 11 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: for me, despite the fact my favorite thing all week, 12 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: Derek Brown, was the the four and a half we 13 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 1: locked in early on this show last week on the 14 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: forty nine Ers. I felt so good about that until 15 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: I started watching that game and watching the forty nine 16 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: ers slowly implode upon themselves, then the injuries take their toll. 17 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: I bet the Browns hard at plus four point fifty 18 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: live and I stuck with it. I was offered a 19 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: cash out debro and I said, no, I'm gonna see 20 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: this rookie kicker all the way through the end. I 21 00:00:57,920 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: told my dad. I was like, look, we're gonna rerooting 22 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: for the Brown's ear. We watch it all the way 23 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: to the end. He missed the kick. It saved my 24 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:08,559 Speaker 1: entire day. Thank you, Cleveland Browns. And here's to live betting. 25 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: What a beautiful thing, Derek Brown, Sam hop and joining 26 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: us to look ahead, deebro it was a crazy week six. 27 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm happy to turn the page. 28 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: I don't know about you, very very happy. And to 29 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 2: turn the page, I need Monday night to go pretty well, 30 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 2: to end up above fifty percent for bets. So just 31 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 2: a bloodbath on bets. And I was watching the same game, Joe, 32 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 2: and because of where I'm at, I wasn't able to 33 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 2: live Bett and Hedge. I would that is the sharpest 34 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 2: all get out call. But I'm watching it with my kids, 35 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 2: and my kids go, hey, Dad, who we want to win? 36 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 2: And I was like, we really want the forty nine 37 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 2: ers to win right now? 38 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, then we want them to win. 39 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 2: And I was like, okay, all I need is for 40 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: them to drive the distance of the field and then 41 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 2: we get the cover for the four and a half. 42 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: So I need it and we didn't. We didn't know 43 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 2: any that did not happen. 44 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: Sam. I was texting with Derek during this game, saying, Oh, 45 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: I'm just so good for the Browns. Every time something 46 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,639 Speaker 1: good happened for them. I kept texted in BJ Walker, 47 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: PJ Walker. Sam, you mentioned to me before the show started, 48 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: you're not sure if any team is good in the NFL. 49 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 1: Who's the best team in the NFL right now? If 50 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: I had to ask. 51 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 2: You, it's probably the Chiefs. 52 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 3: I mean, like at this point, you got to give 53 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 3: them the benefit of the doubt. With Patrick Mahomes. Their 54 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 3: defense we'll talk about later. I think is a top 55 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 3: five defense right now, and they have Andy Reid. I mean, 56 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: it's it's them, or it's still probably the forty nine 57 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 3: ers I think up top. I think again, going against 58 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 3: one of the best defenses, if not now the best 59 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 3: defense in the league, there was just a sort of 60 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 3: a tail outcome for them on offense. 61 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: So all right, well, we're going to try to pick 62 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 1: up the pieces from week six, move on to week 63 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: seven before we do a little bit of housekeeping. You know, 64 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: we like to give away free things here, so it's 65 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: time to give away that. Odell Beckham jersey again the 66 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: Ravens own thanks to Betting Pros. So the big winner 67 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: of the Ravens jersey is you, Casey Phillips. Congratulations, Casey Phillips. 68 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: Get in touch with us over at Mailbag at Bettingpros 69 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: dot com with your mailing address, proof of your subscription 70 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: to Betting Pros YouTube channel, and we'll get that jersey 71 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: shipped out to you again. Casey Phillips, hit us up 72 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: at Mailbag at Bettingpros dot com and with one giveaway gone, 73 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: another one begins. So it's time to throw in your 74 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: hat for this one. Brace yourselves if you want a 75 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: chance to win this. Robert Tuny in Chicago bears jersey 76 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: courtesy of Bettingpros dot com. That's right, This is all 77 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 1: you gotta do. Subscribe to Betting Pros YouTube channel. Drop 78 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: your comments below, ring that bell to lit goos ding. 79 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: I mean you just want to talk about rare jerseys. 80 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 1: A signed Robert tanyan jersey took time out of his 81 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: busy schedule to sign it for you. So there you 82 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: have it. Everybody, go win that jersey again. Subscribe to 83 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: the YouTube channel, drop a comment below. Heck, if you win, 84 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: you can give it to fat Pat Fitzmorris as a 85 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: gag gift for all I care. It's hilarious. Go get 86 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: it right now. All right, let's start at Thursday night 87 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: football uncertainty of the Jaguars because one of the many 88 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: injuries is Trevor Lawrence. We're dealing with that right now. 89 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: So New Orleans at plus one and a half underdogs 90 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 1: at home minus one fifteen over at bet MGM minus 91 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 1: point five. Right now you can get Jacksonville points. Bet 92 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: the numbers forty one and a half. The money line 93 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: is minus money basically right there around one hundred one 94 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: h two to one ten, depending on where you look. 95 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: Sam Hoppin, do you see any early value in this game? 96 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: You want to jump on this maybe before you get 97 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 1: clarity with the injury to Lawrence, if it goes in 98 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: the right direction, and maybe get some value. 99 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 3: I don't. This is a real tricky one. Obviously you 100 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 3: mentioned Trevor Lawrence dealing with some injury issues that the 101 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,799 Speaker 3: market right now I think is pessimistic on Lawrence playing 102 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 3: this game. I think in an out of conference game 103 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 3: Thursday night, short week, they maybe exercise some caution with Lawrence. 104 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 3: They also lost Tyson Campbell their top cornerback and Brandon 105 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 3: Shurf their top lineman against the cold this past week. 106 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 3: So they're dealing with a number of injuries, not just 107 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: to Trevor Lawrence. And so this is one that just 108 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 3: I think screams under for me right now. It's Alwaukee 109 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 3: Thursday Night football. Both defenses, I think are our top 110 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: ten in the league. The Saints offense has sputtered quite 111 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 3: a bit in recent games, so I think with the 112 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 3: Jacksonville run defense being very strong against a Saints tief 113 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 3: team that wants to run the ball, it won't lead 114 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 3: to many points on Thursday Night football. 115 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: All right, coming off a tough loss there in Houston, 116 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: do you think that New Orleans takes advantage of this 117 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: home field that they have in a Jacksonville Jags team 118 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: that's a little banged upty? Or what do you see here? 119 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: Or you're just looking for the under Like Sam said. 120 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 2: I think the unders in play, but give me I'll 121 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 2: look for the Saints to cover in this one, and 122 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,799 Speaker 2: I want the Saints money line not only playing at home. 123 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: This game is another one we get more news on 124 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence, Like if he misses this game, spread's gonna tilt, 125 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 2: it's gonna go in New Orleans favor. I want to 126 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 2: be ahead of that. And yeah, I mean I think 127 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 2: the Saints win this game. So if I'm I think 128 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 2: this money again, if any Lawrence news drops, I think 129 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,359 Speaker 2: this moves more in the Saints favor And I like 130 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 2: the Saints at home. There's so many different parts of 131 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 2: pieces the Saints offense. Also, this last week against the 132 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 2: Texans showed a few more signs of getting right, and 133 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 2: Jacksonville has been a massive pass funnel this year. I 134 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 2: think Derek Carr can walk away with another good game. 135 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: Next up is the Giants at home, coming off another loss. 136 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: There now one in five, maybe that call should have 137 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: gone their way. We can argue that all day. They 138 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: are two point underdogs at home to Washington minus one 139 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,159 Speaker 1: and a half, and get that number over on fandle 140 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: right now, the number is anywhere from forty to forty 141 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: and a half right now, if you like the Giants 142 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: to pull out this in division win at home plus 143 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: one ten. Now, they did get Saquon back last week, 144 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: this yesterday really last week, but still the same thing. 145 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: But Derek, you know, the Giants continue to struggle to 146 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 1: get w year, Sam Howe, and Washington coming off a 147 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: big road wind. You seeing the early value on this 148 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: line here between the Commanders and the Giants. 149 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 2: Give me the Giants money line. And I know I'm 150 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 2: talking about a one in five team, but we just 151 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 2: saw them go toe to toe with the Buffalo Bills. 152 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 2: Tyrod actually moving this offense going against the Commanders and 153 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 2: they get them at home if that defense can stack 154 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: another good week. And Washington's offensive line has been abysmal. 155 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 2: The Giants pass rush is nothing. To sit here and 156 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 2: snub your nose at so they can get pressure after 157 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 2: Sam Howe, who I gotta go look at it. I 158 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 2: still think he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL. 159 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: I will happily take the Giants money line A plus 160 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: money right now. 161 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: I'm a sucker for those eighties throwbacks that Giants were 162 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: wearing last night. They looked so good. It looks so good. 163 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: It's so good, and look they left it all out 164 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: there in the field. They gave it everything against the 165 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. In your opinion, Sam, do you see any 166 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: value early on in this New York Washington game? 167 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, not really. I originally made this line Washington by 168 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 3: two and a half. I'd really don't think whether it's 169 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 3: Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor, that the line changes all 170 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 3: that much. You know, you think about the randomness of 171 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 3: the NFL, like if that end of half scenario goes 172 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 3: differently for the Giants and then they are in field 173 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 3: goal range to potentially win that game. Like, I don't 174 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 3: know if we're talking about them that differently, but it 175 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 3: does talk to the randomness a bit. The Giants do 176 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 3: blitz a ton on defense, and Sam however, versus the 177 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 3: blitz has been terribly as a fifty three zero point 178 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 3: five PFF grade, which is twenty eighth among qualifying quarterbacks. 179 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 3: So I think the Giants might be to play here, 180 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 3: but it's it's an indivision game that I just I 181 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 3: don't know. I'd rather not. 182 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: No, I can understand that, And look, I think the 183 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 1: only difference was if they had won that game last night. 184 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: You build a little momentum of confidence, like, hey, we 185 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: got saque back, we got a huge road victory. We're 186 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 1: gonna come home in division game and get back on track. 187 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: Now you're gonna see what Brian Dabole Coach of the 188 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: Year is worth because now You're gonna know how he 189 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: motivates these guys. Are they are you one and five 190 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 1: in your quitting or are you one in five? Are 191 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: you're fighting next week? So this is gonna be an 192 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: interesting game, but again one to bet on. That's the 193 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: tricky part. Buffalo, the aforementioned is gonna head to New England. 194 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: Boy do they stink? I keep making money against the 195 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: Patriots every single week. I'm a Patriots fan who's at 196 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: twenty plus years of glory and now I'm making money 197 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: off the downside. So I mean, it's it's just nothing 198 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: but winning. It feels like, uh, this is I thought 199 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 1: this number would be ten right now it's at nine 200 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: nine and a half over at bet MGM you can 201 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: get this one. Of course, New England is underdogs at home. 202 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: Buffalo usually blows the doors off New England most of 203 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: these games lately. Anyway, Forty two and a half is 204 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: the number. If you like New England for the upset, 205 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 1: and I don't, it's plus three thirty over a points bet. 206 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 1: I think this number of the nine. Look, I don't 207 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: want to take too much out of last night, Sam 208 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: in terms of the Buffalo offense, especially after you had 209 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 1: that moment with Damian Harris, you know, getting hurt. I 210 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 1: think the shades of that moment reminding everybody of last 211 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: year with Hamlin. I think that was a lot for 212 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: that team mentally. So I think they just go in here, 213 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 1: beat the crap out of the New England Patriots, and 214 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: I think this nine is safe to you. 215 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, really a tough situation with Damian and Harris. 216 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 3: Hope he's okay, but absolutely, I think the Bills can 217 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 3: cover here. Their four man rush on defense is so lethal. 218 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 3: I mean they have the sixth highest pressure rate but 219 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 3: only the twenty ninth highest blitzer rate, so they are 220 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 3: getting after the quarterback with just four guys. The Bill's 221 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 3: defense is a little bit boom or bust for this reason. 222 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 3: When the pass pass protection can hold up on the 223 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 3: other side, the team can you know, give up some 224 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 3: bigger plays. But New England has nothing on offense that's explosive. 225 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 3: I mean, it just looks really bad. They had gone 226 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 3: I think like twenty seven straight drives without scoring a point, 227 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 3: you know, a bajillion drives without even getting into the 228 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 3: red zone, like it was. It's not been good for them, 229 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 3: and I think the Bills can cover this one pretty easily. 230 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: I do too. In fact, I want to lock it 231 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: in now because I think it's only going to grow 232 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: as time goes. I think people are gonna bet the 233 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: Bills hard early on. I think this is gonna go 234 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: to double digits easily. And I might even tease this 235 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: one too, Like, I just feel like that, uh de bro, 236 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: your take on New England Buffalo offense not good for 237 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: the Patriots defense not much better? 238 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that the Patriots are just an isore 239 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 2: right now. It's really bad. I don't disagree that. I 240 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 2: think that Buffalo can cover this. The only thing that 241 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 2: I think could could drag this to where Buffalo doesn't 242 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:38,559 Speaker 2: cover is the Bills have a really bad run defense. 243 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 2: This is a perfect spot New England at home inter 244 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 2: division game for them to slow things down. Feed mare 245 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 2: feed zeke, drag this game to the under and to 246 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 2: be honest, like I maybe the under is the only 247 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 2: way that I want to attack this. But outside of that, 248 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 2: I'm staying away from the spread and everything else. 249 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 1: The mac Jones turnovers too. I mean that first interception 250 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 1: he three yesterday was so bad. It was such a 251 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: bad bad desis It's just broken there like and the 252 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills are gonna have turnovers in this game. I'm 253 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: staying away from the over under. I'm just going straight 254 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: to the Bills. That's all I'm doing here. Let's go 255 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: straight to Tampa Bay. It's much warmer there. Let's go 256 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: to Tampa. They are three and two. They are minus 257 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 1: two and a half. You're at home. The Atlanta Falcons 258 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: come in at plus three over a points. Bet the 259 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: minus two and a half. You can get a fan 260 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: duel forty is this number on DK thirty nine and 261 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: a half over if you like that one over at 262 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: bet MGM and then plus one thirty for the Falcons 263 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: to win outright. So the Falcons got their first home 264 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: loss in a while, for the first home loss of 265 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 1: Desmuner's career. Can the Falcons get back on track here? 266 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: De bro or do you think that Tampa kind of 267 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: recovers from Sunday's butt kicking by the Detroit Lions and 268 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 1: and actually win this football game? 269 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 2: I like the Falcons in this one. Give me their lot, 270 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 2: their bunny line. I think the total and the spread 271 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 2: are pretty spot on. But I do think the Falcons 272 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 2: can go into Tampa and win this game. Defense still 273 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 2: playing good. There's still pressure in the quarterback. Well, we 274 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 2: know that break Baker Mayfield can fall apart, and he's 275 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 2: been surprisingly good versus pressure this year. But I think 276 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,839 Speaker 2: that you're looking at the outside doo of these corners. 277 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 2: We still haven't seen a just monster blow up game 278 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 2: from Bijon Robinson. So it's coming one of these weeks. 279 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 2: I'm not going to rule it out that it's against Tampa. 280 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: All right, Pat, This line is basically choose your own adventures. 281 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 1: So how do you want to choose it? 282 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 3: First of all, I think Atlanta struggles on early downs defensively, 283 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 3: but Tampa Bay struggles on early downs offensively. So I 284 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 3: think that I don't know, it's just one. I don't 285 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 3: We have so many question marks in these games in 286 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 3: this slate that I just none of it really weren't 287 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 3: much opportunity. 288 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't. 289 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: If it doesn't work much opportunity, then it sounds like 290 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: you're thinking about unders when it comes to this forty'. 291 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, forty points is a lot for these teams. 292 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 3: I mean, Tampa Bay is a pass final defense. But 293 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 3: Desmond Rider has struggled. He had the one good game 294 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 3: last week, but I think he just needs to get 295 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 3: the ball in the hands of his playmakers, whether it's 296 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 3: Bijon Drake London, John new Smith, any of those three guys. Really, 297 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 3: I think they can move the ball and potentially get 298 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 3: the upset here. 299 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: All right, let's see if I can tempt you with 300 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: the Detroit Baltimore game instead. This one's going to be 301 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: in Baltimore. It's minus two and a half here for 302 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens. You're getting the plus two and a 303 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: half at minus one oh five overrun DraftKings forty four 304 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: is the number one fandal forty four and a half 305 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: on DK if you like Detroit to win plus one 306 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: twenty two. Very interesting case to be made. Some injuries though, 307 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: to talk about David Montgomery questionable here. We'll see how 308 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: that unfolds this week. I'm on Ross Brown, still working 309 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: his way back from injury, but did have the touchdown. 310 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: And Sam Laporta also a little banged up. So Detroit's 311 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: kind of the walking wounded Baltimore coming back from travel. 312 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: How do you see this? One's the early value in 313 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: this game. 314 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 3: This is another one that I don't see a ton 315 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 3: of value, And actually I think I think Detroit is 316 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 3: the play here. You know, we have a lot of 317 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 3: strength on strength matchups in this game. You have the 318 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 3: Detroit passing offense versus the Baltimore passing defense. But if 319 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 3: you look at the quarterbacks that Baltimore has played so 320 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 3: far this year, it was CJ. Stroud in his very 321 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 3: first game and injured Joe Burrow, Gardner, Minshew, Dorian Thompson, Robinson, 322 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Like, none of those really scream. 323 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 3: You know, we're shutting down some explosive offenses. So I 324 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 3: think Detroit can get it done. The Baltimore rushing offense 325 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 3: versus Detroit's rushing defense, which is top five in rushing 326 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 3: EPA for play and success rate, I think could make 327 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 3: the difference here. The Baltimore passing offense still looks a 328 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 3: little out of sorts. They just haven't clicked at all 329 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 3: together yet. So I like Detroit to go in and 330 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 3: bite some knee gaps and take home a road w Yeah. 331 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: Look, I've had a hard time trusting the Baltimore Ravens 332 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 1: all year, and that's why I'm kind of leaning towards 333 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: the money line here with Detroit. I'd like to get 334 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: some good reports on some players. But that being said, 335 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: D is that where you're kind of leaning at this 336 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: early stage as well? 337 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna take the opposite side of this 338 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 2: game here. 339 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: The argument I want to hear it. 340 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: So Baltimore is not pressure on the quarterback, but they 341 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 2: are an extremely good pass defense. I know who they've 342 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 2: played has not been very good. But what are we 343 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 2: talking about with the Lions here? If they are without 344 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 2: David Montgomery, If Jamir Gibbs doesn't play in this game, 345 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 2: Sam Laporte is banged up, what if he misses this game? 346 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 2: You have Amarro, Sam Brown maybe, I mean Jamo's are 347 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 2: not even running double digit routes right now, so you 348 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 2: cannot go into Baltimore. If they decide they're going to 349 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: make Detroit one dimensional enough to pass, Yeah, Detroit's been 350 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 2: pretty good at that, but I still want to take 351 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 2: the Ravens at home. If we get more word about 352 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: David Montgomery out in this game, what happens to this spread? 353 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 2: Does it lean more towards Baltimore? I think so? So 354 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 2: right now, before that spread moves at all, I think 355 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 2: I'd like to take Baltimore to cover. And I mean 356 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 2: the money line's fine, you can bet that as well, 357 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 2: But for me, it's mostly looking at the Ravens to 358 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 2: cover this two and a half because I think it 359 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 2: could get up to four if we get news that 360 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: David Montgomery is definitively out, and if on top of 361 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 2: that late week news that Jamier Gibbs misses this game. 362 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: Now, we do have some huge marquee matchups here in 363 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: Week six, some really exciting football games. This next one 364 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: is not one of them. The Chicago Bears at one 365 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 1: in five hosting the Las Vegas Raiders at three and three. Again, 366 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: this is a choose yard adventure. The numbers three for 367 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 1: the Vegas Raiders on the road against Chicago. I think 368 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 1: it's unlikely we see justin Fields again, We're still waiting 369 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 1: MRIs and imaging and all these things. Forty and a 370 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: half is the number plus one thirty five, Derek, Look, 371 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: I know this sounds easy to me. I think I 372 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 1: just take the Vegas with the three right now, before 373 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: we officially get the rule. Actually, this is one of 374 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: the more intriguing lines jokes aside of early betting. Lock 375 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: in the Raiders at the three and when the Fields 376 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: news comes out, I think this number goes to four 377 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: and a half. 378 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 2: Your thoughts, Yeah, I think go to four and a 379 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,239 Speaker 2: half or five, just depending on how how you know 380 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 2: how much money comes in on that. I think the 381 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 2: bets are for this game are pretty straightforward. I think 382 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 2: it's the Raiders to cover lock in the minus three 383 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,360 Speaker 2: and I will happily take the under for this game 384 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 2: as well. I mean we're not even talking about like 385 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 2: maybe we don't get Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it's Aidan to O'Connell. 386 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 2: It's it's Aim O'Connell versus Trace and Pagent in this game. 387 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,400 Speaker 1: That's true, This line. 388 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 2: Is gonna go right, Like, I'm kind of surprised it's 389 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: even open. 390 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 1: So many injuries, Derek, I can't even I can't. We 391 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: just did the Waiver podcast, Joe, I know, I know, 392 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 1: I totally forgot about the Garppolo one in my head. 393 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: And Sam, I mean back in but still, like I'm 394 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,919 Speaker 1: looking at the deficits of the Bears without justin fields, 395 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: and like the first thing I'm thinking of is, well, 396 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: what's the Max Crosby sack prop Like that's the first 397 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: thing in my head. I want to go for that one. 398 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: To me, that's the best bet you can make in 399 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: this game, but it's too early to make it down. 400 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 3: Look, if if you had told me that in week 401 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 3: seven we were gonna get a potential Brian Hoyer versus 402 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 3: Tyson Badger matchup, I mean, put it in the calendar 403 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 3: book market like this is. 404 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 2: Man like he's gonna he's gonna DVR this, like you 405 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,120 Speaker 2: have like a seal of this. 406 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 3: On a serious note, so I do think it is 407 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 3: gonna be Brian Hoyer. Jimmy Garoppolo can't play, and I 408 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,439 Speaker 3: think Hoyer is competent enough to get the ball in 409 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 3: day Adams, Jakobe Myers, Josh Jacob's hands. Like these guys 410 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 3: are their entire offense and they're moving the ball pretty well. Uh, 411 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 3: you know, to your point, Max Crosby has been incredible 412 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 3: this year once again, can wreck this Chicago Bears offensive line. 413 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 3: I like the Raiders with the points here. 414 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, it's crazy days out there with all these injuries. 415 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: Speaking of injuries, we'll see if PJ. Walker makes his 416 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 1: second start. I mean why not? I mean, heck, it 417 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 1: was fun right. Indianapolis Colts are gonna host the Cleveland 418 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: Browns here in this contest. The Cleveland Browns are one 419 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites Overrip at MGM. You can 420 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: get Indianapolis at plus two and a half at minus 421 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 1: one fifteen at FanDuel. The number for this game is 422 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half on fandle forty points bet 423 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:31,120 Speaker 1: Indianapolis one plus one ten. Excuse me on the money line, Sam, 424 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: with Cleveland coming off a huge victory, Indianapolis coming off 425 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 1: another disappointing loss. Man, the Jaguars just have their number 426 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: for the last couple of seasons. It feels like they 427 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:41,919 Speaker 1: just keep sticking it to them over and over and 428 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: over again. Is this a trap game? That's my number 429 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: one question here? All that goodwill? Does it all go 430 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: away when you go on the road here and Indy 431 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: gets back at home and wins this football game? Because 432 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: that's what the NFL feels like to me in Week 433 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 1: seven right now. 434 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 3: Well, you asked me about a trap game last week, 435 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 3: and I profusely push that down, and. 436 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 1: You did previously push that down. What what game was that? Again? 437 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 2: Was the Brown I raise my hand. 438 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 3: I did if you had told me that I was 439 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 3: going to get six points of closingline value, I'm making 440 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 3: that bet one hundred times out of one hundred. Okay, 441 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 3: it was a tail out come. But in any case, 442 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 3: I bet. 443 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: The minus four and a half on Sanford. It was 444 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 1: the right process was However, However, the right pivot is 445 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,719 Speaker 1: when you're watching these games live, you have this opportunity 446 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: to to redeem yourself and look at some of these 447 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: things and and I think that's one of the great 448 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: things about live betting. And again, if you haven't already 449 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: downloaded the betting pros, app get the best lines, you 450 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: can set the game notifications, do all the right things, 451 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: because if you're doing that, you know you can make 452 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 1: a good educated investment and then see what's happening and 453 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 1: developing in a game, and see the injuries and see 454 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: the play and feel what's going on and make hedges 455 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,479 Speaker 1: that are really smart at times or profits in this 456 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: case and this instance. But continue with Sam, keep telling 457 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: me the story. I want to hear it. 458 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think I was sort of waiting 459 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 3: for Cleveland's defense to show something against a top offense, 460 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 3: and they did exactly that. Again San Francisco. Obviously we 461 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,359 Speaker 3: know San Francisco dealing with the injuries on offense to 462 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 3: Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey and Debs Samuel, But even with 463 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,120 Speaker 3: them in the game, like they were just crushing them 464 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 3: And I don't see how, you know, as fun as 465 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 3: Garner Minshew is, they just don't even have the same 466 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 3: level of playmakers as the forty nine ers. So I 467 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 3: think Cleveland can cover this. I made this Cleveland by 468 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 3: three to start, and if we get some positive news 469 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 3: on Deshaun Watson again kind of a weird situation, then 470 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 3: that move is excuse me, that line is going to 471 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 3: move even more in favor of the Browns. 472 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,679 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the Cleveland side too. Defense travels at 473 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 1: the end of the day. We just talked about the 474 00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: defense on the Way We Wire podcast on Fantasy Bros. Derek, 475 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 1: and you know they were only thirty percent rostered still 476 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 1: and that's because they were coming off a bye and 477 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 1: then people started dropping them because they are forty nine ers. 478 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 1: Is gonna be ugly? Well it wasn't. I mean there, 479 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 1: it's ugly, just a game ugly for a brock perty 480 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: of times. But all jokes aside, Cleveland feels like the 481 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: right side of this game to be on, and I 482 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: think now is a really interesting time to jump on 483 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 1: it before like Sam said, if you get more positive 484 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: Cleveland injury news, a Kareem Hunt look good running the football, 485 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: drum Ford has moments at the end of the game, 486 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: Cooper made an amazing catch. They're like there were there 487 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: were a lot of things to take away positively in 488 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: this momentum. But again, it's like momentum stops every week 489 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: when you get these crazy things and you go up. Well, 490 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: so much for that momentum of Cleveland. I feel like 491 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: this is a trap game, so I'm being very careful 492 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: of it. This is like a one unit bet, but 493 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 1: I think that unit is on Cleveland right now. 494 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 2: Your thoughts, I'm with Sam. If this game would have 495 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 2: been in Cleveland, this line would have opened at like 496 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: minus three and a half probably for the Browns. So 497 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 2: even though they're on the road, I'm totally fine betting 498 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 2: the Browns one to cover. You want to attack their 499 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 2: money line, that's fine too. I think this defense is 500 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 2: gonna go into Indian slap the mustache off of Minshew's face. 501 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: Okay, I like that. Los Angeles Rams are going to 502 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: host the Pittsburgh Steelers, coming off there by minus three 503 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: for the Rams at home, you get plus three and 504 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 1: a half on the Pittsburgh Steelers at minus one fifteen 505 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,239 Speaker 1: at bet MGM, the three is at DK forty two 506 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: and a half is a DK and if bandle as well, 507 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,400 Speaker 1: plus one forty six for the Steelers on the money line. Derek, Look, 508 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: I think the Rams big question now is the injuries 509 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: to that Backfieldkyen Williams, Ronnie Rivers both hurts, and now 510 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: it's like Zach Evans. Now, I don't know if that 511 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 1: matters so much because I feel like they're gonna throw 512 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 1: the ball no matter what they want to do anyway. 513 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 1: So that being said, your confidence tells me, Hey, let's 514 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: get in on the Rams here, or do you want 515 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: to wait and maybe people start betting the Pittsburgh side 516 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 1: of this game and anticipating, oh no, so many injuries 517 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 1: on the Rams. 518 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 2: I just don't know how much that line's gonna move 519 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 2: just based off of Kien Williams, Like if you had 520 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:03,479 Speaker 2: bigger news like it was Hooker, Cooper, Stafford somebody like that. 521 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 2: I can't see the line moving that much for the Rams. 522 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 2: I mean as far as in the Pittsburgh side. So really, 523 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 2: I want to lock this in early. Give me the 524 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 2: Rams to cover minus three. I don't want to do 525 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 2: anything with the total because I just don't know how 526 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 2: much pushback the Steelers are going to offer the Rams, 527 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 2: and I mean their offense, their defense, pick whatever, pick 528 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 2: whatever you pick your poison, their defense. This entire team 529 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 2: has been a surprise this year, like the if the 530 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 2: ball drops any other different directions, like, we could be 531 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 2: talking about a four or five win team right now. 532 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 2: So I think that they're going to easily take care 533 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 2: of the Steelers. 534 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: Sam, do you agree with Derek that this line probably 535 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: is not going to move much all week long? 536 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think so. I think this line is 537 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 3: actually like spot on right now. And you mentioned the 538 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 3: backfield injuries for the Rams. On the Pittsburgh side of 539 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 3: the ball, it sounds like they're going to get Pat 540 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 3: Friar Muth back. They could get Deontay Johnson back on 541 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 3: offense as well. Larry Ogunjobi and TJ. Watt did go 542 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 3: into their bye week with some injuries at the end 543 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 3: of their pre bye week games. 544 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 1: I'm fine. 545 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 2: He already popped his faver back in the place. He's good. 546 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, it doesn't sound like they're going to miss any time, 547 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 3: so that's good. But it is something too to monitor. 548 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 3: We've seen that this Pittsburgh passing defense can be exploited, 549 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 3: and the passing attack of the Rams is the best 550 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 3: unit on that team. So I think that this line 551 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 3: is spot on. I'm staying away right now, but I 552 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 3: think this is going to be a really good matchup. 553 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 1: Arizona at Seattle. Seattle seven and a half point favorites 554 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: against Arizona. You can get Arizona plus eight and a 555 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 1: half over on DK on the betting pros app right now. 556 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is that number? Forty six 557 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 1: and a half of the under on DK plus three 558 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: ten for the Cardinals. Cardos are one and five. Look, 559 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 1: you know they got a lot of moxie. They hang 560 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 1: in there. Seattle defense not great sam But at the 561 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,399 Speaker 1: same time, do you think that the seven and a 562 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 1: half is a little too big of a number. 563 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 2: I don't think so. 564 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 3: I think you know, you could tell that the Seahawks 565 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 3: offensive line was struggling against Cincinnati, but Arizona is not 566 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 3: nearly as a as ferocious of a d line. They 567 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 3: have the worst pressure rate in the league. I think 568 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 3: Kenneth Wager should be able to run all over this 569 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 3: Arizona defense. You know you said the Seattle defense has 570 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 3: been bad. Their run defense has been sneaky excellent this year. 571 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 3: Their fifth in rushing EPA for play, first in success rate. 572 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 1: In your opinion, are those excellent because everybody just wants 573 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: to throw the ball on them? Or are they excellent 574 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,959 Speaker 1: on their own just out of curiosity? Because I think 575 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 1: the plan of attack for Seattle is throw against them, 576 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,479 Speaker 1: So those numbers deflated because people want to attack them 577 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: in the secondary. 578 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,879 Speaker 3: I'm sure that's part of it too, but they I 579 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 3: don't know. I just think they're they're performing even if 580 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 3: they are throwing against Seattle a ton like when they 581 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 3: are running the ball, they're struggling to do so. So 582 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,679 Speaker 3: I don't think Arizona is going to be able to 583 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:07,160 Speaker 3: pass the ball super effectively against them. The Josh Dobbs 584 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 3: hype has has sort of worn off a little bit 585 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:11,440 Speaker 3: in recent weeks. 586 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,640 Speaker 2: I'll double down with Sam here. I think it's because 587 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 2: Seattle's run defense is actually really freaking good. 588 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 1: Well, okay, I want to ask the question because I 589 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: feel like that's we talked about a lot, like Derek 590 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: when we do the Betting Pro Show. I mean, you 591 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 1: see the DFS show on the Betting Pro Channel on Fridays, 592 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: we always talk about like up Seattle, let's throw the 593 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 1: ball against Seattle, you know, so I just wonder, you know, 594 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 1: sometimes there's that you know, apples and our statistics sometimes 595 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: where ye know, well are they really good at this? 596 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: Or a people just not challenging. 597 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 2: The gout, I mean the other part. And I wanted 598 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: to double check this real fast. But you've got four 599 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 2: five guys for Seattle grading out with seventy five or 600 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 2: higher run defensive grades for the Seattle Seahawks. And one 601 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 2: of those guys we haven't seen a whole lot of 602 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 2: with Jamal Adams, so if he comes back, he's a 603 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,960 Speaker 2: full time guy. I think that their run defense actually 604 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 2: goes up another here. 605 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to Los Angeles and Kansas City. The 606 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,239 Speaker 1: Chiefs are five and one, they're at home. They're five 607 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Chargers. We'll see 608 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 1: what the Chargers do tonight. Fifty one is the number 609 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: on the total here plus two a five for the 610 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers to win. These are typically pretty competitive games. 611 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 1: We've seen Herbert really kind of show his best against 612 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: Kansas City, which is fun to me, I'm just gonna 613 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,400 Speaker 1: write for that fifty one. I know it's tough for 614 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 1: Kansas City lately. They seem like there's still a work 615 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,400 Speaker 1: in progress. They don't know who their favorite is. But 616 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 1: you like the other side of this, You're going underneath. 617 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 2: Oh, I'm going under. I'm going big down under on 618 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 2: this game. The Kansas City defense has been elite. Lugerius 619 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 2: Sneed is playing out of his freaking mind man like 620 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 2: he is shadowed. I'm curious when I pull up the 621 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 2: metrics this week. He's shadowed in almost every single game, 622 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 2: and the laundry list of guys he is shut down 623 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 2: has been awesome. So I'm looking at this game. This 624 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 2: game screams the under. The only reason this the only 625 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 2: reason this game has the to total that it has, 626 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 2: is these two teams and their names and the name 627 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 2: sexiness attached to them. Outside of that, if you look 628 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 2: at what these two offenses have done, much as the 629 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 2: Kansas City defense, there's so many routes and paths to 630 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 2: the under in this game. That is the big, big 631 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 2: play for me in this game. 632 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: All right, Sam, your thoughts? Are you also in on 633 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:21,880 Speaker 1: the under in this one? 634 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:22,720 Speaker 2: I am? 635 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 3: I mean again, the name value, with the quarterbacks Justin 636 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 3: Herbert and Patrick Mahomes obviously driving this total up. But 637 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,960 Speaker 3: like I mentioned earlier in the show, I think Kansas 638 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 3: City has a top five defense. They're top eight in 639 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 3: EPA per play, success rate EPA per drive. Their passing 640 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 3: defense is third in EPA per play and second in 641 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 3: success rate, so they've been able to slow down some 642 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 3: of these passing attacks. Their rushing defenses is still a 643 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,520 Speaker 3: big concern. They're twenty ninth and rushing EPA per play. 644 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 3: But if the Chiefs defense can hold this Chargers offense, 645 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 3: and then on the flip side again, we've talked about 646 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 3: the Kansas City offense struggling like they didn't do much 647 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:10,719 Speaker 3: against a terrible Broncos defense on Thursday night. Now Andy 648 00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 3: Reid with the extra time to prepare and maybe realizing 649 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 3: you shouldn't be playing with his food as much as 650 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 3: he did on Thursday night changes things. But I like 651 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 3: Kansas City to cover this spread. I think their defense, 652 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 3: combined with their offense getting a little bit of extra time, 653 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 3: will help them cover. 654 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 2: Playing with bringing Bo that was nice. 655 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: We're going to jokes today. 656 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 2: I like that, man, I'm here for it, Sam, I 657 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 2: got a quick question, man, if before we get to 658 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 2: this next one, if you just took the name Cache 659 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 2: out of these quarterbacks and these offenses and just look 660 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 2: at what they were doing this season, doesn't this feel 661 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 2: like a game that should be like forty seven and 662 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 2: a half ish, if not maybe a little bit lower 663 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 2: based off all what these teams have actually done this year. 664 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, and you're sort of I think the lines are 665 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,360 Speaker 3: the line for the total is possibly baking in. Okay, 666 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,320 Speaker 3: maybe this is the week for the Chiefs. 667 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 2: To have a click. 668 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 3: But again, yeah, they're offering hasn't been great. 669 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 1: It hasn't been Look, that is absolutely accurate. It hasn't 670 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 1: been great. They are working progress. However, Look, I think 671 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 1: you can't just say if you take the quarterbacks away, 672 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 1: because this is a quarterback league and those two quarterbacks 673 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: are capable of putting on a show. And that's why 674 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: if this number was fifty three and a half, I'd 675 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: probably be more where you are, because last year they 676 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 1: were a fifty four and fifty one for the two 677 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 1: games they played against each other. Fifty one is just 678 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,640 Speaker 1: right for me, And I'm like, Okay, I'm comfortable with 679 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: the over at fifty one. If you started to push 680 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: it to fifty three and a half or somewhere like that. Okay, 681 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 1: that's where I'm out on that one. It's a razor 682 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 1: thin margin. Speaking of razor thin margins for error, the 683 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 1: Denver Broncos are at one in five. They're gonna host 684 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. The Packers you get minus one 685 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: at points bet for Denver you get plus two over 686 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,680 Speaker 1: on DK. Forty four and a half is the number 687 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 1: on bet MGM forty five at FanDuel. If you like 688 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 1: Denver to get another victory, a plus one ten a DK, 689 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 1: you can go bet that. Sam, what are your thoughts 690 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 1: on this one? You're a Packer guy, Jordan Love not 691 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 1: coming off a really good performance, so your thoughts. 692 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 3: The Packers need Aaron Jones back. I mean, I don't 693 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 3: want to put a ton of value into a single 694 00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 3: running back, but AJ Dillon has played not well this year, 695 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 3: and they just need some explosiveness back in that offense. 696 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,880 Speaker 3: As of this morning, Jones was practicing, so that's good 697 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 3: to see. I believe Darnell Savage was practicing and kway 698 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 3: Walker was doing some stuff off to the side. But 699 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 3: I like the under here. The Broncos defense hasn't been 700 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 3: very good, but need it just these offenses are sort 701 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 3: of sputtering at times this year. The Packers got off 702 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 3: to a hot start but have quickly regressed past the 703 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 3: mean to be honest, and I think even though Denver 704 00:33:56,280 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 3: can't get much pressure on the quarterback, they'll be enough 705 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 3: to keep this one under. 706 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 1: All Right, Derek, your thoughts on this one before you 707 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 1: go to the two games that everybody really is excited about. 708 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:10,880 Speaker 2: I think Sam brought it up a point that I 709 00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 2: wanted to hit on this. With Denver having a bottoms, 710 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 2: I won't say that there's sixth worst in pressure rate 711 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 2: this year, and that's been the Achilles Hill for Jordan Love. 712 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:23,080 Speaker 2: He just melts under pressure. And at Denver their pass 713 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 2: rush can't get home. I like the Packers to win 714 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 2: this game. I do lean towards the under just because 715 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 2: of how both of these teams have played. But the 716 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 2: Aaron Jones news I think could swing a little bit. 717 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 2: We were talking about with Kyron Williams a little bit. 718 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,759 Speaker 2: So if you wanted to take the Packers to cover 719 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,359 Speaker 2: and win this game outright, I don't hate the money 720 00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 2: liner to them covering the spread. 721 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to Miami at Philadelphia. This is 722 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 1: a good one here, Sunday Night football. Let's go. The 723 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 1: Eagles are minus two and a half point favorites of 724 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,760 Speaker 1: this one over on DK at minus won ten. Fifty 725 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 1: two and a half is the number on FanDuel fifty 726 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,480 Speaker 1: three over on DK. If you like the under, you 727 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,279 Speaker 1: get my aami a plus one twenty five. So, look, 728 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: Miami's had some injuries here with the backfield. We know 729 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:08,840 Speaker 1: that Tyreek Hill had that cramp issue. But look, this 730 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:13,359 Speaker 1: is a historically good offense for the Miami Dolphins, like 731 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: we're talking about all time great is what we've seen 732 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 1: so far. Derek Brown, is that going to travel to 733 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 1: Philadelphia in your opinion? And if so, do we just 734 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: take Miami on the money line and plus one twenty 735 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 1: five or do we see the Eagles after a bad 736 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 1: loss get right here against Miami. 737 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,880 Speaker 2: I could see either one of these teams pulling this 738 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 2: win out. And I'm kind of surprised, Like I think 739 00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 2: this spread should be a little bit closer than what 740 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 2: it is. I just want to take that. I want 741 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 2: to hit the over for this game. And because you're 742 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 2: telling me Philly is going to force the Dolphins to 743 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 2: be more pass heavy because they are a pass funnel. Yeah, okay, 744 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,720 Speaker 2: fine two is gonna take to the ear Tyreek Waddle, 745 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 2: let's go and Philly can CounterPunch. Philly can push this 746 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 2: off sh of course again, so I'm all on, look, 747 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 2: I understand this is at fifty two and a half. 748 00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 2: I don't give a crap man, Like both these teams 749 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 2: could put up a ton of points. I want to 750 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,279 Speaker 2: hit the over and I want to stay away from 751 00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 2: the spread and the money lines on this one. 752 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 1: How about you, Sam? How do you see this one? 753 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 1: Because this is the marquee matchup, is the standalone game? 754 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 1: Is gonna be a lot of betting on it. Do 755 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: you want to go ahead and be on the Miami side, 756 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:20,799 Speaker 1: the Philly side, or just the side of the over? 757 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,880 Speaker 3: I'm on the Miami side here. Philadelphia is struggling with 758 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:30,439 Speaker 3: some injuries in the secondary. Reblankenship left early, Bradley Roby 759 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,800 Speaker 3: left the game earlier. Dale Darius Slay did not play 760 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 3: like who is going to cover Tyreek Hill and Jalen 761 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 3: Waddle Like it doesn't matter no, Like Ladon Johnson left 762 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 3: the game early as well, which is a huge potential 763 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,239 Speaker 3: loss for a Philadelphia offensive line that is potentially the 764 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,799 Speaker 3: best in the league. The Philadelphia pass rush has not 765 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:58,319 Speaker 3: been phenomenal. They are fifteenth in pressure rate this year. 766 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 3: So I like the Dolphins money line. 767 00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,600 Speaker 1: All right. Last one here, San Francisco forty nine Ers, 768 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 1: another team coming off their loss. Man the Eagles had 769 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 1: just beaten the Jets, they would be right at the 770 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,400 Speaker 1: top of that NFC where looking down at everybody. They 771 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 1: did not handle their business either did the forty nine Ers. 772 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,920 Speaker 1: They're gonna go play the Minnesota Vikings. They are now 773 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 1: two and four. Look, the Vikings are not great, so 774 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,319 Speaker 1: one would imagine here that San France should go in 775 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 1: there and take care of Minnesota and maybe take out 776 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,839 Speaker 1: their aggression. But Sam, the numbers a good size. It's 777 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 1: seven here, Christian McCaffrey questionable for this game as of 778 00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 1: recording this. Forty four and a half is the number 779 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,920 Speaker 1: for this contest. Minnesota plus two sixty is a big 780 00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,120 Speaker 1: number on the money line. So I guess at the 781 00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,239 Speaker 1: end of the day, this is just a question of 782 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,000 Speaker 1: you know, the San fran in your opinion, just bounce 783 00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: right back. I mean, they did have losses on the 784 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,759 Speaker 1: offensive line side to a lot going on here. For 785 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,680 Speaker 1: San fran Do you think that really affects Party on 786 00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,280 Speaker 1: the road against Minnesota two consecutive ro games. 787 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 3: Too, Yeah, I think it could. I mean the discourse 788 00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:03,319 Speaker 3: with Rock Party this week, who be interesting to follow, but. 789 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,440 Speaker 1: Take all the toys away all of a sudden, He's 790 00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,799 Speaker 1: not Tom Brady too anymore. He's not Tom Brady two 791 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:12,480 Speaker 1: point maybe, so I do think, go on. 792 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,919 Speaker 2: Geez, he did. 793 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 3: And I think something under discussed is obviously the Trent 794 00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,920 Speaker 3: Williams entry. He apparently was seen wearing a walking boot 795 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,760 Speaker 3: out of the game. Now that's not a death sentence 796 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,319 Speaker 3: by any means, but this man Minnesota defense hasn't been 797 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,960 Speaker 3: as terrible as expected, at least going into the season. 798 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,960 Speaker 3: They're obviously not the Browns defense by any stretch of 799 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,920 Speaker 3: the matter. But this is what I'm staying away from 800 00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:45,080 Speaker 3: for right now. Potentially could use it in a teaser leg, 801 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 3: teasing San Francisco down to a point and a half 802 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,480 Speaker 3: or something, depending on on the line. I don't really know. Again, 803 00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,799 Speaker 3: I'm having some trust issues with the forty nine ers 804 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 3: right now, as you can possibly probably tell. But it 805 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,919 Speaker 3: also is Kirk Cousins in prime time, and he has 806 00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 3: struggled in those situations. So I'm staying away for right now. 807 00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,120 Speaker 3: I do think this is a really interesting matchup, though. 808 00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:11,960 Speaker 1: I think it's an interesting one from a prop standpoint. 809 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,319 Speaker 1: The game itself. That's the one where I struggle here, 810 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,879 Speaker 1: because you know, it's not that I don't have faith 811 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 1: in the forty nine ers, it's just it's a weird 812 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 1: scenario now with the injuries on top of it, and 813 00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,120 Speaker 1: the walking boat's never a good thing. I mean, walking 814 00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,279 Speaker 1: boat typically means you ain't playing this week at the 815 00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,920 Speaker 1: very least. So Derek, your thoughts on this one as 816 00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:30,880 Speaker 1: we close out Week seven look ahead? 817 00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,000 Speaker 2: I all these lines are really good. They're really a 818 00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,000 Speaker 2: spot on the spread of the totals. I want to 819 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 2: stay away from those. I do. I don't want to 820 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,840 Speaker 2: sound like I'm insane here, but I do see a 821 00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,480 Speaker 2: scenario where the Vikings could win this game if you 822 00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,120 Speaker 2: look at how their defense stacks up against this. If 823 00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,440 Speaker 2: no Trent Williams this week, we don't get debo, he 824 00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 2: doesn't have CMC, and the Vikings are blitzing at the 825 00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,959 Speaker 2: highest rate in the league. If that pressure gets home 826 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,799 Speaker 2: and their pressure rates are going up, you're talking about 827 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 2: a defense that started the year bottom three in pressure rate. 828 00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,480 Speaker 2: Now they're up to middle in the road. Like this 829 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,799 Speaker 2: defense is finding itself a little bit and I think 830 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 2: at home as well. If this game was in San Francisco, 831 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 2: I feel a little bit better about this. But there 832 00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,600 Speaker 2: are avenues for the Vikings defense to take this home 833 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,920 Speaker 2: for them, especially as banged up as the forty nine 834 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,600 Speaker 2: ers are, because the Vikings run defense has been top 835 00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,600 Speaker 2: ten this year. So if you can make them one dimensional, 836 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,760 Speaker 2: you can blitz brock perty And we saw what happened 837 00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,040 Speaker 2: last week and the only toys that he has to 838 00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,279 Speaker 2: play with is Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. I'm not 839 00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 2: gonna tell you that I'm betting the Minnesota Vikings money 840 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 2: line right now, but it is really freaking intriguing, all right. 841 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 1: I want to hear what everybody else is in on, 842 00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:45,759 Speaker 1: so make sure you drop your comments below in the 843 00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,280 Speaker 1: YouTube channel, and don't forget to also make your picks count. 844 00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:51,160 Speaker 1: Go to bettingpros dot com, Slash and fl contest join 845 00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,800 Speaker 1: it today. The winner on the year gets a JSN 846 00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,400 Speaker 1: autograph Jersey Jackson Smith and Jigba. But we're also doing 847 00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,120 Speaker 1: weekly prize as monthly prizes you don't have to make bets, 848 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,520 Speaker 1: just make picks as easy as that. Download the Betting 849 00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,760 Speaker 1: Pros app again click that community tab, join the NFL contest, 850 00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:06,960 Speaker 1: or just go to betting Pros dot com slast NFL 851 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,680 Speaker 1: contest to go win and remember when you drop your 852 00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,759 Speaker 1: comments below in our chat here in the YouTube, you 853 00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:14,879 Speaker 1: might win that Robert Tunyan jersey. That's right, I want 854 00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,480 Speaker 1: you to win that. I'm talking to you. You know 855 00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:18,840 Speaker 1: who I'm talking to. You know you want that jersey. 856 00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,279 Speaker 1: So there you have it. Everybody that'll do it for us, 857 00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:22,759 Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Derek 858 00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,320 Speaker 1: Brown and Sam Hoppin. I'm Joey P. We'll see you 859 00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,400 Speaker 1: next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 860 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,279 Speaker 1: Follow us on x and TikTok at betting Pros and 861 00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:36,040 Speaker 1: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 862 00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros