1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,800
Speaker 1: You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim

2
00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:09,520
Speaker 1: Fox on Bloomberg Radio. US. Russia ties crumbling under the

3
00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:15,280
Speaker 1: weight of Syria a nuclear pact. What is next? White

4
00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:19,520
Speaker 1: House spokesman Josh Ernest saying on Monday, everybody's patients with

5
00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 1: Russia has run out, blaming Vladimir Putin's government for undermining

6
00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:25,800
Speaker 1: the fight against Islamic State and for indiscriminate bombing. This

7
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,280
Speaker 1: could killed civilians and targeted hospitals in Syria, and of

8
00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:34,120
Speaker 1: course Russia Putin's team firing back. Where does this leave investors? Happy?

9
00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:36,600
Speaker 1: So happy to welcome back to the show. Richard Kahan,

10
00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,200
Speaker 1: Managing partner at Eurasia ED Advisors. It's a problem solving,

11
00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:46,320
Speaker 1: solving and deal making firm. Uh that links in business

12
00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,640
Speaker 1: and politics in Russia, Ukraine. And Richard, you yourself, you

13
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,960
Speaker 1: speak Russian, You've lived in Russia. You worked with yeltsin team,

14
00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,160
Speaker 1: Yelton's team when you started in ran the Moscow office

15
00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,600
Speaker 1: of an international law firm. So you know this so well.

16
00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 1: Business and politics. Let's start there. I want to know

17
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 1: you think about what's happened this week, but in terms

18
00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,840
Speaker 1: of what you guys, do why is this so important? Well,

19
00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,240
Speaker 1: I'll start by saying that I'm not sure changes dramatically

20
00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,160
Speaker 1: the environment for business in Russia. You know, we've already

21
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,399
Speaker 1: been in a mode of sanctions for many years. U

22
00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:24,720
Speaker 1: S sanctions against Russia, tremendous pressure arising from the activities

23
00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 1: in Ukraine that Russia undertook, and just a general malaise

24
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 1: and that relationship. This though, is yet a further frosting

25
00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,240
Speaker 1: of that, another layer of ice on it um. And

26
00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,720
Speaker 1: it's disappointing because there are areas where the US and

27
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,800
Speaker 1: Russia can cooperate um. Syria is one example of that,

28
00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:49,840
Speaker 1: global warming, other various international security issues where our countries

29
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:51,880
Speaker 1: can cooperate, even if we don't see eye to eye

30
00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,040
Speaker 1: on a variety of different policies. So it's disappointing and

31
00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,560
Speaker 1: probably signals the end of any real opportunities during this

32
00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:03,480
Speaker 1: administration to do much with Russia. Richard, If this was

33
00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: a chess match, and you know a lot about chess matches.

34
00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 1: If this was a chess match, who would be in

35
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,960
Speaker 1: control and what would be the act of agenda of

36
00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:20,880
Speaker 1: all the parties of both sides. I would share my

37
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:26,520
Speaker 1: perspective in this way that we the U S and

38
00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,519
Speaker 1: Western Powers have a far more dominant position on the chessboard.

39
00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 1: And those are long term structural advantages by virtue of

40
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:41,120
Speaker 1: UH frankly, just the strength of our economies, government UH

41
00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:45,480
Speaker 1: integration that we have among all these different allies and

42
00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,720
Speaker 1: in addition to the diversification of our economies. So Russia

43
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,840
Speaker 1: is in a very weak posture and has been, frankly

44
00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 1: for centuries compared to many other countries. This is not new.

45
00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:00,120
Speaker 1: Russia has been isolated and quite quite weak compared to

46
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,600
Speaker 1: Western nations. But given that, they certainly are trying to

47
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 1: make the best of that situation, trying to gain respect

48
00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,639
Speaker 1: in a place in the world and recapture some sense

49
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,359
Speaker 1: of if Russia has a great country, and obviously we'd

50
00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,000
Speaker 1: all like to see them UH play a productive role

51
00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:17,880
Speaker 1: in the world UH. And they do that by finding

52
00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,359
Speaker 1: ways to be relevant. So they're making what I'll call

53
00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,760
Speaker 1: small tactical moves in a weak position on the chess

54
00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,960
Speaker 1: board to try to gain some leverage. And you know,

55
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,959
Speaker 1: I think they've done certainly a good job over the

56
00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,240
Speaker 1: last several years in becoming relevant in the international scene.

57
00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 1: But they need to in my view, convert that into

58
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 1: something more positive in order in the long term to

59
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,440
Speaker 1: to have the role that I think they want in

60
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,240
Speaker 1: the world, which is one of of being fully respected.

61
00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,200
Speaker 1: We've been talking a lot about the elections, and we're

62
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,520
Speaker 1: getting ready for the vice presidential debate tonight. How does

63
00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,400
Speaker 1: Russia view the US elections up and how do you

64
00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,280
Speaker 1: view the the role that either candidate might play. You

65
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,320
Speaker 1: just said, forget about this administration. When we look ahead

66
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 1: to the next four years, what would the difference be.

67
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 1: What is Russia hoping for? This is a very unusual situation.

68
00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:11,560
Speaker 1: We faced this during this election cycle because it is

69
00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,880
Speaker 1: quite clear to me based on my many years in

70
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:18,359
Speaker 1: Russia and uh knowledge of how the KGB and its successor,

71
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,360
Speaker 1: the FSB operate. It's a very strange thing to see

72
00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:27,160
Speaker 1: their role in our election being so prominent, and particularly

73
00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: uh they're taking sides in it and trying to help

74
00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:34,560
Speaker 1: obviously the Republican candidate in this instance, and you know,

75
00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:39,040
Speaker 1: the to see as we did, uh, you know, Donald

76
00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,320
Speaker 1: Trump take a position, uh say two months or so

77
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,920
Speaker 1: ago that was strongly really supporting Russia Visavi Crimea and

78
00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,719
Speaker 1: the Ukraine, even taking the position that they had not

79
00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:54,800
Speaker 1: yet invaded Ukraine, not even taking into account what's happened

80
00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 1: in the eastern portion of that country. And then the

81
00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,279
Speaker 1: prominence of two advisors is that Trump had, for a

82
00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:06,719
Speaker 1: period of time his campaign manager who had basically admitted

83
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,960
Speaker 1: taking large amounts of money from Janakovich, who was as

84
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,320
Speaker 1: we all know, just essentially an emissary for Putin, and

85
00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,919
Speaker 1: then Carter Page, you know, both of it, who was

86
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,159
Speaker 1: his security advisor, particularly visa be Russia. Um these are

87
00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:26,880
Speaker 1: dream scenarios for Russia and very disturbing for me when

88
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,960
Speaker 1: I realized that we now have a candidate receiving security briefings.

89
00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:35,640
Speaker 1: I'm just very hopeful that these experiences have alerted him

90
00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,480
Speaker 1: and his team to the prospect that, um, you know,

91
00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,600
Speaker 1: that the Russian security agencies would like to have some

92
00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,719
Speaker 1: leverage over him. And it's also part of why I

93
00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,880
Speaker 1: worry about the lack of disclosure, because that can also

94
00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:53,200
Speaker 1: create situations where they have information that they can essentially

95
00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,480
Speaker 1: use against him by not disclosing. Thank you very much

96
00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 1: for coming in and spending time with us. Richard Khn

97
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:03,120
Speaker 1: always interesting. Matt managing a partner at Eurasia Advisors and

98
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 1: also with Innovate Partners giving us his view of Russia

99
00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,039
Speaker 1: and the United States. You're listening to taking stock. This

100
00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:12,200
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg