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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm Tom

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Speaker 1: Keene Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best

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Speaker 1: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg jointing us on Bloomberg TV and m

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Larry Cardlog joining us from outside of the

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Speaker 1: White House. Larry, great to catch up with you, sir,

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Speaker 1: after a really solid payrolls report with an unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: nicely in the single digits, south of nine percent, and

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Speaker 1: the number one question everyone's asking right now, Larry, what

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Speaker 1: does it mean for the fiscal effort in Washington? Can

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Speaker 1: you draw the line for us just join those dots? Uh? No,

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Speaker 1: I really can't. I mean the conversations are going on

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Speaker 1: daily and we'll continue to go on. We still have

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Speaker 1: the view. First of all, today's number eight point four

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Speaker 1: percent unemployment. I just want to note I think that

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Speaker 1: shows that President Trump's idea of a generous unemployment assistance

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Speaker 1: plan that he's put as the executive order, but not

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Speaker 1: necessarily an extravagant one. I think he's been born out

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Speaker 1: to be exactly right. Eight point four percent unemployment is

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Speaker 1: really the headline story of this massive jobs improvement report. Now,

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Speaker 1: regarding the discussions on the Hill, you've got a continuing

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Speaker 1: resolution discussion, you've got a cares to Act or whatever

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Speaker 1: you call it discussion. There are areas of agreement. There

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Speaker 1: wide areas of disagreement. However, on the size and scope.

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Speaker 1: We have the view that a smart package, a well

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Speaker 1: targeted package, for example, helping small businesses with PPP extensions,

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Speaker 1: opening schools, COVID health, uh, you know, kids and jobs

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Speaker 1: or our watchwords. Why don't we just pass a more

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Speaker 1: modest package instead of a package that goes into multi

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars that we don't need, and then the long

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Speaker 1: term would be counter for tips. So we'll see, Johnathan,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to forecast. I don't want to get

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Speaker 1: in the way of the talks. The talks are continuing.

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Speaker 1: But that's our basic point of view. If you agree

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Speaker 1: on four or five things, let's go for it. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's stop dilly dowling around. Let's go for it. But

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Speaker 1: not the entire uh left wing agenda from the other

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Speaker 1: side of the aisle. That's not acceptable. Larry You've never

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Speaker 1: been afraid of making a forecast, So I'm sure you

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Speaker 1: can make a forecast on the economy with us right

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Speaker 1: now and tronic gates from you. Where you think the

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Speaker 1: economy is going and what that means for your policy stance.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this is a self sustaining recovery now,

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Speaker 1: independent of the need of further stimulus. Yeah. Look again,

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Speaker 1: extending small business loans would be a good thing, and

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Speaker 1: there's some other important facetts, but I do think it's

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Speaker 1: self sustaining. I've said this before. What you have here

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Speaker 1: is a housing boom. You have a retail sales boom,

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Speaker 1: you have an automobile boom, strong consumer spending, and we're

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Speaker 1: getting you know, we've recovered over half of the jobs

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Speaker 1: we lost last winter. UM. Inventories have laps in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter. I think there were down three UM. So

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Speaker 1: the way I see it, Jonathan, is to meet these

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Speaker 1: demands housing, construction, automobiles, consumers, retailers, and so forth, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna need to rebuild inventories, and that is going to

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Speaker 1: add impetus to the second half growth, which will be

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Speaker 1: at least and perhaps much more. I think the Atlanta

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Speaker 1: Fed has said the third quarter. But anyway, uh self sustaining. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go on for quite some time. Next year

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Speaker 1: is going to be a banner year for the economy

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Speaker 1: and for jobs, assuming the policy regime is pro growth

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Speaker 1: with incentives. So I'm relatively optimistic. Now, I will say

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Speaker 1: we have much more work to do. We're not out

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Speaker 1: of the woods. We have too many people unemployed. Even

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Speaker 1: though the numbers have improved radically and way ahead of

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Speaker 1: expectations on Wall Street, we have more work to do.

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Speaker 1: There's still way too many unemployed and much too much hardship.

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Speaker 1: I get that, but I think one has an optimistic

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Speaker 1: read bound in mind. And I think, incidentally the virus

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Speaker 1: numbers are helping quite a bit as they flatten that

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Speaker 1: and hook lore Larry. We talked about that hardship. We

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Speaker 1: talked about the disparity beneath the appricate numbers. If you

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Speaker 1: and I have talked about a million times after the

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Speaker 1: last several months, still a lot of pain out there.

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Speaker 1: I'm just trying to gate from you there is we

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Speaker 1: have this discussion about this recovery. How comfortable you would

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Speaker 1: be going into the back end of the year without

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Speaker 1: an agreement with the other side. Of the aisle. Look,

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Speaker 1: we can live with it. We can absolutely live with it. Um.

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Speaker 1: It depends on the package. You know, a bad package

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Speaker 1: would not be helpful. A smart, good package, well targeted,

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Speaker 1: would be helpful. Okay. Congress wants to legislate longer run

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Speaker 1: unemployment assistance. If Congress wants to put in let's say,

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Speaker 1: benefits for bonuses for re employment, uh fine. If Congress

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Speaker 1: wants to help out with funding a bit on the

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Speaker 1: school openings, fine, that sort of thing would be extremely

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Speaker 1: positive in my judgment. Lengthening p PP for small business, sure,

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Speaker 1: do we absolutely need it. No, I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: precondition anything here. What's good is good independently. What's not

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Speaker 1: good is not good independently. Right now, the economy is

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Speaker 1: on a self sustaining recovery path in my judgment, and

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Speaker 1: we'll continue along those lines, and we'll continue to surprise

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Speaker 1: on the upside. And I don't want anything to get

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Speaker 1: in the way. I mean, look, one of the issues here,

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Speaker 1: let's put it right on the table. It's like the

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Speaker 1: elephant in the living room is the other side of

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Speaker 1: the aisle. The Biden team wants a four trillion dollar

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Speaker 1: tax hike. Now to me, coming off a deep and

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Speaker 1: painful pandemic contraction. That is a terrible idea. I don't

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Speaker 1: care whether you're Knesian or a supply sider or what.

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Speaker 1: You wouldn't be picking taxpayer wallets and purses. Stop pickpocketing

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Speaker 1: their money. They need more money, not less money. I'd

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Speaker 1: rather they had more money through tax cuts, tax cuts

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Speaker 1: which President Trump emphasizes, UH, rather than spending measures. But

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Speaker 1: let people keep their own money. But the idea, and

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Speaker 1: this is the uncertainty factor with the election looming, and

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Speaker 1: it looks like a toss up right now, President Trump

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Speaker 1: is gained about six or eight points after the convention. UH.

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Speaker 1: The idea of a gigantic tax hike on individuals, payrolls,

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Speaker 1: companies large and small, that is a hurdle for this

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Speaker 1: self sustaining recovery. So I think it's important to just

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Speaker 1: put that right on the table. I don't understand it.

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Speaker 1: I don't care left right Kangent supplies hire, who would

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Speaker 1: show white mine would be jacking up taxes by four trillion.

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Speaker 1: And this idea that it's just rich people. First of all,

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Speaker 1: rich people help investment a lot, and we like to

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Speaker 1: reward success in the Trump years. But The second point

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Speaker 1: is middle class people will bear the brunt of any

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Speaker 1: tax hike that always happens. When politicians say won't, it

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Speaker 1: always happens, and they'll go deep into everybody's pockets. Wrong policy, Larry.

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Speaker 1: I'm not here to advocate for anybody, and I'm not

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Speaker 1: here to talk about electoral politics with you as well.

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Speaker 1: Last time I checked, the form of vice president hasn't

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Speaker 1: been elected to public hethice. Right now, you guys are

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Speaker 1: running the government. You have to work with the other

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Speaker 1: site to some degree. I guess I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about language with you. There's some language around aid for states.

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Speaker 1: I keep hearing this language that we don't want to

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Speaker 1: use money for bailouts of states, and I'm trying to understand.

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Speaker 1: Is there a distinction between state aid and state bailouts

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Speaker 1: and how do you draw that distinction. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: the President had said it well a number of times.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't want to bail out in efficient government operations

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Speaker 1: at the state and local level. We have the administration

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Speaker 1: has been very generous uh in nick prior packages and

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Speaker 1: other means of providing aid to states, principally for COVID

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Speaker 1: related reasons, but also many other reasons, including by the way,

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Speaker 1: equipment for COVID reasons, and testing for COVID reasons and

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Speaker 1: so forth. We've been very generous. Hundreds and hundreds of

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Speaker 1: billions of dollars have been injected into state and local governments.

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Speaker 1: That's fine, we needed that. We were in a pandemic emergency,

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Speaker 1: no question about it. On the other hand, end one area,

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Speaker 1: for example, the President is singled out badly unfunded pensions

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Speaker 1: at the state local level. We don't believe a COVID

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Speaker 1: package is the right method or the right vehicle for that.

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Speaker 1: There's a number of other spending issues in the other

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Speaker 1: other team's proposals that have nothing to do with COVID.

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Speaker 1: By our calculations, over third of their proposals are non

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Speaker 1: COVID related proposals that should be scrapped. So what President

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Speaker 1: Trump would say is, if it's necessary and it's properly targeted, Jonathan,

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Speaker 1: then we would probably see our way to a compromise.

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Speaker 1: But at the moment, we're not there. And again I

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Speaker 1: repeat what the Chief Meadows has said, what Secretary Venition

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Speaker 1: has said. We agree on some areas, and if we

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Speaker 1: could find four or five areas key areas, and I

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Speaker 1: will once again say reopening schools and extending small business assistance.

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Speaker 1: If we agree on that, let's just pass it. Let's

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Speaker 1: just have a smart, well targeted, smaller package. So what

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Speaker 1: would you do, Larry, if the state level austerity begins

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Speaker 1: in the federal government? What will be the response when

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Speaker 1: you start to see that play out? States across America

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Speaker 1: who are up against budget constraints can't use the bondmarket

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Speaker 1: in the same way the federal government can. What's the response,

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Speaker 1: what's the plan, what's the strategy? Well, actually, I will

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Speaker 1: just say this. The federal reserves lending facilities include a

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Speaker 1: very generous tax free municipal bond lending, so states can

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Speaker 1: tap into that, and so can localities. The feed has

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Speaker 1: been very generous about backstopping UH tax exempt municipal type bonds,

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Speaker 1: so they should make use of that. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a plus, particularly if you need two or three year

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Speaker 1: type paper. Now, the other point I make is it's

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Speaker 1: quite true that the damage economic damage as a result

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Speaker 1: of the pandemic has damaged budgets at the federal, state

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Speaker 1: and local level, no question about it. It is also true, however,

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Speaker 1: revenues are coming in much stronger now, as the economy

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Speaker 1: picks up steam. I think there's a lot of underestimating

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Speaker 1: going on and the extent to which this recovery is

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Speaker 1: helping all finances at all levels. Revenues at the federal

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Speaker 1: level have improved enormously, and they are showing great improvement

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Speaker 1: at the state local level. So I think people should

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Speaker 1: put that on the table, put that on the scoreboard.

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Speaker 1: You know, let's not just rush into stuff. That's been

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Speaker 1: one of the issues here. Let's look at things carefully

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Speaker 1: and analytically and assess them and their need. What is essential,

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Speaker 1: what is smart, that's fine, but what is not essential?

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Speaker 1: And just throwing money at places to fund more poor

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Speaker 1: management or pension funds, that's not what we want. That's

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Speaker 1: a different conversation, and it's a different moment on legislative time.

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Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying. It might be worthwhile let's look

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Speaker 1: at pensions, but not now, not the COVID. Let's have

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Speaker 1: a separate item for that. Well, let's talk about a

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Speaker 1: targeted effort then. And the airline specifically, the President of

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Speaker 1: the United States said recently, will be helping the airlines.

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Speaker 1: You have to help the airlines. Arguably the most free

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Speaker 1: market approach to helping the airlines is not throwing aid

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Speaker 1: at them. It's having a proper testing regime at airports

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Speaker 1: across America and getting that New York to London corridor,

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Speaker 1: of which I've got skin of the game right now,

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Speaker 1: Larry on the other side at the moment, trying to

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Speaker 1: work out how to get back, how we get that reopen,

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Speaker 1: and how we get these airlines back to work. I

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Speaker 1: think that's the key for these companies. It's not about

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Speaker 1: throwing money at them. It's how we establish safe testing regimes.

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Speaker 1: And I'm just wondering why we haven't seen a big

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Speaker 1: effort publicly to make that happen, Larry. Why not, Well,

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Speaker 1: because there's been a huge effort privately, and we will

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Speaker 1: be um unveiling the positives of that private effort. We

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Speaker 1: are in constant communications with the air air carriers. We

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Speaker 1: agree with what you're suggesting with respect to testing and

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Speaker 1: taking temperature and a host of other measures. We also

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Speaker 1: are working with the airlines regarding contact tracing and the

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Speaker 1: feasibility of that UH without incurring too much additional expense.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at telephone apps for that. We're looking at

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Speaker 1: testing before you get on the plane and after you

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Speaker 1: get on the plane, I mean when you land on

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Speaker 1: both sides of the pond, so you won't have to

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Speaker 1: have a fourteen day quarantine. We're looking very intensely at that.

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Speaker 1: All that said, I will at however, the President has

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Speaker 1: said a number of times airlines are crucial. It's one

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Speaker 1: of the key arteries are of economy, transportation and so forth. Um,

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Speaker 1: if they need additional assistance, we stand ready to work

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Speaker 1: with them to hammer out additional packages. Secretary Manution is

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Speaker 1: leading that charge. So we've got information testing additional assistance

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Speaker 1: on the table for the airline business. When we hear

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Speaker 1: about it, Larry, you've talked about it privately. When we

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Speaker 1: start hearing about this publicly, when it is the big

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Speaker 1: unveiled so to speak. UM, without a specific timetable, I

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Speaker 1: would say it will be a matter of weeks, not percent, Larry,

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Speaker 1: as you not having this conversation not just about big tech.

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Speaker 1: Imagine there's some nervousness of about the read across from

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Speaker 1: a labor market that's still doing okay and what it

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Speaker 1: means for the policy effort down in Washington. Raised this

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Speaker 1: issue with you before. There is some cynical people among

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Speaker 1: us and I'm sure you'll appreciate that, Larry. He believe

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Speaker 1: that unless the market gaps a LOWA, there won't be

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Speaker 1: any urgency down in Washington to cut a deal. Now.

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Speaker 1: Is the piscal approach independent of the price action in

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Speaker 1: financial markets, Larry, Well, the physical approach is not independent

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Speaker 1: of the economy. But I don't see there's there's no

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Speaker 1: magic special formula between the stock market, UH and a

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Speaker 1: possible additional assistance plan. There's there's no direct length, there's

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Speaker 1: no formula. I wouldn't want to go there, frankly, for

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Speaker 1: what it's worth, Johathan, I think you know in markets,

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Speaker 1: nothing goes up in the straight line. We've had a

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Speaker 1: phenomenal rally in the stock market, which itself, by the way,

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Speaker 1: represents confidence in the economy later this year and next year.

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Speaker 1: But the tech sector is undergoing a correction right now,

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Speaker 1: and as you well know from your coverage down through

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Speaker 1: the years, that's a fairly normal item. I don't think

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Speaker 1: anybody should panick. The economy is definitely definitely improving, Larry.

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Speaker 1: Before we let you go, I wanted to talk about

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Speaker 1: something personal with you. You and I have tried some

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Speaker 1: punches over the years with me sitting care and you

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Speaker 1: in that position as well. Earlier this week, you talked

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Speaker 1: about recovery and been twenty five years sober, and I

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Speaker 1: just wanted to say personally to you, congratulations Larry, and

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Speaker 1: thank you for sharing that story earlier this week. That's

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Speaker 1: very kind of you, Jonathan. It's um. It's perhaps the

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Speaker 1: greatest achievement of my life. And I'm most grateful to

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Speaker 1: my friends and family, my saintly wife. I came back

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Speaker 1: to faith in recovery and twelve Step meetings. I'm in

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Speaker 1: touch with my friends all the time. The First Lady

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Speaker 1: did a fabulous job yesterday. My hat's off tour. It's

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Speaker 1: a delicate subject. She brought in people in recovery, people

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Speaker 1: who are employers and laryees in a wonderful roundtable. Again,

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Speaker 1: it's a phenomenal thing that the First Lady did. I

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Speaker 1: was honored to participate. I would just say, Jonathan again,

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Speaker 1: thank you for noticing. Look Um. As I mentioned yesterday,

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Speaker 1: there's no question I would not be where I am

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Speaker 1: in this position, in this job, which is the pinnacle

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Speaker 1: of my professional career and a great honor bestowed on

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Speaker 1: me by the President and the First Lady. I would

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Speaker 1: not be here if I weren't sober all of yours.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, sir, and thanks for being here and allowing

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Speaker 1: me to interrogate you every single month as always, Larry

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Speaker 1: Fancasa to catch up Larry Cardlock, the National Economic Council

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Speaker 1: Director outside the White House. One of the great strengths

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg surveillance is you as we welcome you on

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Speaker 1: radio and television. Is an eclectic view of economists. We

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Speaker 1: now turned the former governor of the Fellow Reserve System,

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Speaker 1: Randall crossn Are truly one of our experts in financial economics,

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Speaker 1: sent our partying that into the labor system as well,

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Speaker 1: Randy Krasser, and you're wonderful reading of the literature. How

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Speaker 1: is our labor share doing? This is something we'll speak

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Speaker 1: to Blanche Flour later, but this is something that's so important,

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Speaker 1: labor getting its fair share of any economic growth presumed forward.

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Speaker 1: How is our labor share? And so we certainly have

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Speaker 1: seen the labor share decline over over time. Some of

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Speaker 1: that is due to the way labor is U is

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Speaker 1: characterized in the in the data. Because of course, if

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Speaker 1: you can make your labor income into capital gains income,

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Speaker 1: your tax at a much lower rate, and so it's

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Speaker 1: been a very strong incentive to try to move things

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Speaker 1: into what would have in the old days been called

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Speaker 1: labor income and move into categories of being called capital income.

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Speaker 1: So that accounts for part of the transition. So, just

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Speaker 1: looking right now at where we are in the labor market,

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Speaker 1: given this better than expected print, do you feel like

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Speaker 1: there is momentum perhaps that economists have not accounted for,

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Speaker 1: that they have failed to account for given the number

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Speaker 1: of positive surprises in a row. Well, I think it's

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Speaker 1: great that we've gotten some positive surprises. I mean, these

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Speaker 1: numbers are of such large magnitudes that, um, it's no

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Speaker 1: surprise that we and we've never had something exactly like

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Speaker 1: this before, that we're gonna have more misses. And so

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Speaker 1: I think we're broadly in the same range of where

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Speaker 1: people thought we would be. That the unemployment rate was

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Speaker 1: going to spike up very significantly initially, then as the

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Speaker 1: unlock occurs, you're going to have a very uh major

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Speaker 1: move down that will gradually slow down. And also, as

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Speaker 1: you're mentioning before, there's an additional bump because of the

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Speaker 1: census workers that will make the unemployment rate look lower

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Speaker 1: this month than than otherwise. But um, we're gonna make

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Speaker 1: a mistake. I'm glad. I'm glad things are better. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, we we we all are. This has

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Speaker 1: been a brutal market and it's been moving from temporary

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Speaker 1: layoffs and permanent ones. We've been talking about Coca Cola

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Speaker 1: and the airlines and everybody else announcing layoffs, even the

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Speaker 1: companies that are doing well. I want to go to

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Speaker 1: the numbers. The confusion that Michael McKee, who is brilliant

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Speaker 1: and who has been doing this for years, was displaying

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Speaker 1: came from a very confusing set of data. Yesterday we

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Speaker 1: had a changed method of accounting for jobless claims. Today

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Speaker 1: there are separate surveys that are coming out. Do you

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Speaker 1: feel like the data itself is more confusing than it's

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Speaker 1: ever been before. Well, I think that the fundamentals of

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Speaker 1: the data are are the same, but it's just the

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Speaker 1: movements in the data in these short amounts of time

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Speaker 1: are so much larger than we're used to that of

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Speaker 1: course they're going to be possibilities for um misinterpretation or

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Speaker 1: miss uh miscategorization. So I think we have to take

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Speaker 1: these numbers with a little bit of a grain of salt,

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Speaker 1: not because there there's something wrong with numbers, but just

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Speaker 1: the movements are so large that what used to be,

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Speaker 1: you know, a hundred thousand was a big movement. Now

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Speaker 1: it's a million, and so it's just a very different,

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Speaker 1: different kindle of fish, Professor Cross. There there's a raging debate,

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Speaker 1: and this goes more to your wheelhouse of financial economics,

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Speaker 1: and over the years, the debate is on the growth

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Speaker 1: rate needed given the interest rates within our fiscal policy.

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Speaker 1: This is the this is the crying worry right now

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Speaker 1: of those looking at our deficit build up. Give us

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Speaker 1: your sense right now of the growth rate we need

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Speaker 1: given the potential interest rates higher that we may experience.

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Speaker 1: Are we near a point of worry or do we

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Speaker 1: need to worry outside of two thousand twenty five. I

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Speaker 1: think the longer run, there's a challenge. I mean, right now,

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Speaker 1: it seems that the markets are very, very willing to

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Speaker 1: definance countries that have astonishingly high deficits, whether it's the US, Japan,

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Speaker 1: and a number of other countries. Least of major countries.

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Speaker 1: Emerging market countries are facing enormous challenges, but there are

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Speaker 1: some of the large countries like the US, are very

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Speaker 1: fortunate at the moment to be seen as relatively safe,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of money looking for those relatively

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Speaker 1: safe assets. The challenges that at some point the chickens

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Speaker 1: will come home to roost, that someone will say, well,

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Speaker 1: can they really pay all this off? We don't know

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Speaker 1: exactly what we'll trigger that, but but I think we

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Speaker 1: should be worrying about that in the UH in the intermediate,

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Speaker 1: longer run and Professor the Center and Budget and Policy Priorities,

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Speaker 1: they go back too and say, we have a confidence

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Speaker 1: that the American system has always developed a growth rate

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Speaker 1: over that interest rate glide path what Peter orzag would

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Speaker 1: call the glide pass out there. There's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of angst right now that that may end. How do

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Speaker 1: you feel about that? But it's UH, that's a concern now.

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Speaker 1: And at least the short intermediate run interest rates are

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Speaker 1: are around zero, even the tenure rate being less than

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Speaker 1: one percent. I mean, that's really unprecedented UM and in

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Speaker 1: many other countries we're seeing long term rates be be

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Speaker 1: negative and so obviously that makes a lot of UH

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Speaker 1: fiscal physical spending much more much more feasible when you

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Speaker 1: have zero or negative rates. But if and when those

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Speaker 1: rates go go up, that's when the challenge will come in.

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be at least a few

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Speaker 1: years off. But we shouldn't be complacent now and say, oh, well,

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Speaker 1: we can just borrow forever at zero and it's no

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Speaker 1: problem with that kind of attitude. You won't be borrowing

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Speaker 1: for very long at zero, and that come home to

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Speaker 1: Ruth sooner. People have been saying that we haven't seen it,

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Speaker 1: but people keep saying that, I do wonder, Professor, going forward,

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Speaker 1: if the FED is out of tools to improve the

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Speaker 1: labor market from here, well, I think you can't rely

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Speaker 1: just on the FED for everything. People try to try

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Speaker 1: to rely on the FED to to cure all ills.

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Speaker 1: There's some things that the FED can can provide support for.

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Speaker 1: It inn front, a lot of liquidity to markets, so

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Speaker 1: when things when there is market dysfunction in February March,

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Speaker 1: we're very helpful and in that Right now, I think

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Speaker 1: it's much more the transition. Uh, the shock of of

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Speaker 1: COVID is really a fundamental shock to the structure of

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Speaker 1: the economy. I think it's much more fundamental than what

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Speaker 1: happened with the global financial crisis or with nine eleven

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Speaker 1: some parts of the economy are simply not going to

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Speaker 1: be coming back, and we have to acknowledge that there's

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Speaker 1: going to be a transition there and that's going to

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Speaker 1: take time. The FED can't directly address address. Professor Crossner,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much with the Booth Schools Chicago. We're

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Speaker 1: thrilled that you can join us today on this job's day,

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Speaker 1: joining us NOWS and just spoke with Crossinger of the

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Speaker 1: Booth Schools Chicago. We now, as we put Blanche Flower

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Speaker 1: of Dartmouth College, Danny Bachlower, thrilled to have you with us. Danny,

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Speaker 1: I want to go away from the wage dynamic this

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Speaker 1: time around, and I want to go to your important

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Speaker 1: research moving on from Richard Leyard on a happiness and age.

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Speaker 1: Our happiness has been shattered in this pandemic. Explained to

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Speaker 1: us the dampening impact of a pandemic on how a

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Speaker 1: society moves forward to the end of that pandemic. Great question, Um,

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Speaker 1: we have evidence around the world. I think there's two

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Speaker 1: big things to it. When we had the lockdown, we

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Speaker 1: had a huge collapse in well being and happiness around

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Speaker 1: the world of a scale that we've never seen before.

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Speaker 1: And the census and the Office of Natural Statistics have tracted.

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Speaker 1: One of the things I think we're learning now is

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Speaker 1: that people have adjusted a little bit to think of

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Speaker 1: a big drop and then adjustment taking place, people becoming

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Speaker 1: adjusted to the fact of the new world. But this

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Speaker 1: is a major shock to people's thinking and behavior. And

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Speaker 1: why it matters to Bloomberg listeners is whether this shock

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Speaker 1: and adaptation tells us that something different is coming down

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Speaker 1: the road. Are there going to be behavioral changes. I

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Speaker 1: was just thinking about what Mike just said, and there

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Speaker 1: are all kinds of things that you could look at

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Speaker 1: as to what's coming. I was looking this warning at

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Speaker 1: Google ends and if you just put the word unemployment in,

427
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: what you see is that actually the thing has started

428
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: to tick back up again, decline a big rise, as

429
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: as unhappiness if you like rows. So people are adapting,

430
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: they're thinking about what's coming. But I think what you'd

431
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 1: see in the data is, I mean, this is a

432
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 1: great set of data today is that people are fearful,

433
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: and the question is are they going to take different

434
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 1: behavior going forward? But you know, we've seen a rise

435
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: in depression and loneliness of all sorts of things. We're

436
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: seeing them start to adjust back again. But the question

437
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 1: is there still a big gap and we've never seen

438
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: anything like that. Are we ready for our new top line,

439
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: our new nominal g d P if we have subdued inflation,

440
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: and we have let's call it subdued even pretty good

441
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: economic growth as a society, are we ready for that? Well?

442
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: I think I think we're potentially ready. But again, this

443
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 1: is a huge shot to which people are adjusting. And

444
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: if you think about saying to your guests, or saying

445
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 1: to a owner of the Bank of England or to

446
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: a Fed president, where are we going from here, they're

447
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: going to have to say to you Tom. It depends.

448
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,640
Speaker 1: It depends on the first thing that I just said

449
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: is are people going to change their behavior? What's going

450
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 1: to happen to this virus? Is a vaccine coming? And

451
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: then the other thing is are people confident about what's

452
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 1: coming forward? If you've never seen a shot downwards to

453
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: your happiness like this before, are you going to start

454
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 1: thinking in the future, Well, it's happened once, maybe it's

455
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: going to happen again. So yeah, the world is the

456
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 1: world has changed, I think, and uh, your previous guest

457
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 1: was right to say that, you know, this. We've never

458
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: seen anything quite like this before, so forecast things difficult.

459
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: Tom Danny, what's the long term effect on a potential

460
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: lost generation, the idea that there's fifty five year old

461
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 1: cohort is facing unemployment rates close to twenty and facing

462
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 1: a labor market virtual or otherwise that's decimated. I think

463
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: that's probably the the most important question I've been trying

464
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 1: to work and I gave testimony to the Scottish Parliament

465
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: last week on exactly this this point. Think about so

466
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 1: we're talking about firms, workers being on furlough, workers being

467
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: on temporary layout, but a big chunk of kids around

468
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 1: the world left school in June. They graduated from college.

469
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: And we know graduation from college into a bad labor

470
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: market is tough, but especially think of kids coming out

471
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 1: of high school, high school dropouts, um and there are

472
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: huge social consequences to that. We had We had huge

473
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: action in the thirties, there was a civilian conservation Corps.

474
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 1: But nobody's actually really taking much action for these kids.

475
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: And I think this is going to be a really

476
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,479
Speaker 1: stored up, huge problem for us. We tried to tackle

477
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: it in the eighties. It kind of went away, but

478
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be the number one problem

479
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: going forward. What are we going to do about these

480
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: young people? Are we going to give them a sense

481
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: of hope or impose hopelessness on them? What are we

482
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: going to do about them by November? Especially given the

483
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 1: fact that we are facing a backdrop of people not

484
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: being able to socialize and depression and a whole host

485
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: of other emotional issues. Nonetheless, there are no jobs. The

486
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 1: entry level jobs have often been in the services sectors,

487
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: whether it's to go work behind the counter at budget

488
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: to do people rental cars or at airplanes or whatever

489
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: it is, or in your local coffee shop. What jobs

490
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 1: are going to replace those? Well, it's gonna be it's

491
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 1: difficult to know. And obviously we've seen a big growth

492
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: in delivery drivers. We've seen Amazon and Walmart and others.

493
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 1: We've see a home delivery of foods um. I think

494
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 1: it's really hard to know the answer to that. I mean,

495
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: it's a great question. Labor clients will always ask, but

496
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: if you think, think about saying, if you ask me

497
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: what jobs are going to replace those in two thousand twenty,

498
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: and the answers I have absolutely no idea. So I

499
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 1: think their markets will sort of fix these things, but

500
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: I think, you know, we're going to have to basically

501
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: help people through this transition um and the fact that

502
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: stimulus stopped at the end of July in the United States,

503
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: I mean, well, when no one's talked about that, Eventually,

504
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 1: at some point this stimulus and the lack of money

505
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,239
Speaker 1: coming into the economy, the lack of spending is going

506
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: to reflect itself into the labor market, which is a

507
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 1: lagging indicated. So it's you know, these are tough ones,

508
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: but I think going forward, it's going to be hard

509
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: to see young people will do unless we do something

510
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: dramatically for them. Professor blames for one final question. Claudia

511
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 1: sam joined us earlier this morning. Always controversial. I will

512
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: label her a liberal economist, and she says, look, we

513
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: got to get it going. And her statistic is a

514
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: six trillion dollar aid for the United States of America.

515
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: What's the Blanche Flower statistic. I don't want to get

516
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: you in trouble with Dartmouth, but what's your stimulus estimate

517
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: that would be appropriate? Well, I think the answer is

518
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: that what we learned in the past is it's that

519
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: that the issue is probably doing too little, not doing

520
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: too much. I mean, Claudia has obviously been pushing these

521
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: kinds of issues and has been very good on it.

522
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: Um I think the answer is several trillion is going

523
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: to have to have to work and have to be used.

524
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 1: We're still at eight I mean, okay, we're still at

525
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: eight and a half percent an employed plus another point

526
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: seven because of the era. I mean, these are historically

527
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: high numbers. Think where we were in March. We were

528
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: at three and a half, so these are really big numbers.

529
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: But I think the answer is doing too little is

530
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: clearly the problem. It's hard to see what the consequences

531
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: are of doing too much. If you think what Claudia said,

532
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: if he did six what would it do well? It

533
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: would boost the economy like crazy, and then Randy Cross right,

534
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: at some point then you would have to do something

535
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 1: about it. But doing too much is much better than

536
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: doing little. Answer. We're at a time, David Blanche, thank

537
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: you so much, of course at Dartmouth now on the

538
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: equity market, and she has just been wonderful. Gina Martiny

539
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: Adams has tried to give perspective. She's trying to really

540
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: focus on relative value versus the many hysterias it seemed

541
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: to be there in this odd two thousand twenty Gina,

542
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: How did we get to the point where an index

543
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: four percent pullback or a selected high flyers eight percent

544
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 1: pullback is a cause for route cratered plunge? How did

545
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: we get here? That's a good question. Um, we got

546
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: here by having such an extraordinary rip higher that took

547
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: a lot of people by surprise. In my opinion, this

548
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: has been an ongoing issue with this bull market that

549
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: began back in two thousand nine. Is every rally seems

550
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: um to take most investors off guard, who are general

551
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 1: generally have a pretty bearish outlook toward the fundamentals. Every

552
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: rally starts with some degree of policy infusion liquidity takes

553
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: stock significantly higher. Eventually fundamentals catch up, but never to

554
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: the point where investors feel completely comfortable taking on equity

555
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: insure exposures. So that's very much the same this year.

556
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: Even though this year has been anomalous and that volatility

557
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: in general has been a lot higher uh than in

558
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: past years, the fact that stocks have moved higher based

559
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: on liquidity conditions does make investors feel uncomfortable, and so

560
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: any sort of sell off is a chance to feel justified.

561
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: And that's why I think you hear the headlines of

562
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: you know, we've got this correction, the doom and gloom

563
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: sort of is near. This is the beginning of something horrible.

564
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: You know that in a lot of ways, that's not

565
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: different than the experience we've had in the last ten years.

566
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: It's just amplified by extraordinary volatility and tremendous economic uncertainty

567
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: that exists this year specifically, So, Gina, when I got

568
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 1: into this business nearly thirty years ago, I think the

569
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: first lesson I learned, at least internalized, was don't fight

570
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 1: the Fed. Is that all I have to worry about here?

571
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: I mean, I know the Fed's back stopping me here.

572
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: Is that all I have to really focus on. It's

573
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: not all, but it should be the foundation. Um. So

574
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: I do think that that is absolutely one of the

575
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: most important investment tenants is the fact that liquidity provision

576
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: is absolutely extraordinary. Uh. You know, the FED balance sheet

577
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: simply exploded from March to June, and it's still significantly

578
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: higher than it was at this time last year. We've

579
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 1: also got rates at zero percent into perpetuity as far

580
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: as the market is concerned. So what you want to

581
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: be concerned about is the point in time where economic

582
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: conditions stabilized or get so strong that the FED does

583
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 1: have to pull back on the punch bowl, because that's

584
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: the most dicey time for stocks. That said, there are

585
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: some underlying conditions in the equity market that do cause

586
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 1: a little bit of pause. We're at a point in

587
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: time where it's very clear that the momentum of some

588
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 1: of the mega cap tech stocks got two extremes. It

589
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: showed up in three sectors in the SMP five hitting

590
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: momentum extremes that we hadn't seen in years as of

591
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 1: last week. So we will have to see these segments

592
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: of the equity market correct if we are to sustain

593
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: gains and sort of experience, you know, a continuation of

594
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: the uptrend. That means that as these areas of the

595
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: market correct, someone will have to see a leadership transition

596
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: into other sectors. Um, So I think you do want

597
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: to watch a few other things. You do need to

598
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: see economic momentum and essentially improve at least a little

599
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: bit into one. If it doesn't, but then we're going

600
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: to have to see greater policy infusion to keep stock

601
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: prices afloat but you know, I'm trained the same way

602
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: you are, a Paul apparently, because I completely believe in

603
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: the notion that liquidity is extremely important and if you

604
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: ignore policymakers, you're you do see your peril because it

605
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: is a huge part of investment. So what's the allocation debate?

606
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I know we don't do bi whole cell

607
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: and I don't give me you know, like sixty should

608
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 1: be fifty two, blah blah blah blah blah. But how

609
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 1: do you allocate Gina Martin Adams now with such an

610
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 1: unusual yield space. Yeah, I think that this has been

611
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 1: a question also that we've been asking ourselves for an

612
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: honorably longer period of time than just But of course

613
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: again really amplifies this question for a lot of people

614
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: with rates reaching new loads across the yield curves. UM.

615
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,879
Speaker 1: You know, in my view, there is a very very

616
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: compelling and strong reason to move out UM in terms

617
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: of risk and move into riskier asset classes beyond treasuries.

618
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 1: And that compelling reason is we're starting to get a

619
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:33,839
Speaker 1: sniff of an inflation regime change. Um. You also, on

620
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 1: top of the fet obviously, the FETE is your most

621
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: compelling reason. If the FETE is forcing you to take

622
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: on risk, you pay attention and you take on some risk.

623
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 1: Of the equity market is trading cheap relative to the

624
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 1: corporate bond market, for for example, if you compare earning

625
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: zeal to corporate credit yield. But if we're going to

626
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: have an inflation regime change where companies are going to

627
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: diversify supply chains increasing costs, that cost is going to

628
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 1: have to get passed onto the consumer where liquid the

629
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: conditions are extraordinarily supportive. Even in an environment where inflation

630
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: is printing two to two and a half percent, the

631
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: FED may not move because they're conditioned to expert deflationary

632
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 1: conditions to prevail. Fiscal policymakers are going to throw everything

633
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 1: they can at this crisis. All of these things line

634
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: up to a potential for an inflation regime change. If

635
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: we do see an inflation regime change, that changes the

636
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 1: dynamics of how you want to allocate in your portfolio,

637
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: because it means that box moved from a long term

638
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 1: downtrend and yield to probably a longer term uptrend in yield,

639
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: And that means you do want you do want to

640
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 1: shift the dynamics. We're seeing this argument play out in

641
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 1: Risk Parity Land more than anywhere right now. But I

642
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: do think the alloy under question and what's worse is Paul,

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Speaker 1: if you go to risk parity Land, you've got to

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Speaker 1: be quarantined you come back. Gina, Martin Adams, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. Just always hugely valuable as well. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You

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