WEBVTT - Tri-State Area Doing Better With COVID Testing, Roberts Says

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, al Bloomberg dot com. You can

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<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. New York City Mayor Bill

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<v Speaker 1>de Blasio talking about a recent uptick of virus cases

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<v Speaker 1>in some neighborhoods around New York and so certainly there

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<v Speaker 1>are some increased concerns about the virus once again here

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<v Speaker 1>in the city. Meanwhile, J and J has begun dosing

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<v Speaker 1>as maybe sixty volunteers in a study of its vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a big deal. Goldman Sachs So and HSBC. Meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>they're among the company's pausing plans to return workers to

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<v Speaker 1>the office in London, and so there is a lot

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<v Speaker 1>going on. Back with us is Dr Joey and Roberts.

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<v Speaker 1>She's Chief value Officer provid in St. Joseph's Health, one

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<v Speaker 1>of the largest health care systems in the US. We've

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<v Speaker 1>talked with them before. Remember, Washington really was at the

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<v Speaker 1>center of the virus in the US from day one.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Roberts joining us on the phone from Everett, Washington. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Roberts, so nice to have you here with Jason

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<v Speaker 1>and myself. How are you. I'm well, how are you all?

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<v Speaker 1>And what on the East Coast? We're doing okay? Just

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<v Speaker 1>watching those numbers. Very worried. I think I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>fair to say we're worried. Dr Roberts, and I wonder

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<v Speaker 1>how worried you are and how worried we should be. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we don't want to, you know, we don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to overworry, but we all want to be judicious

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<v Speaker 1>in how we approach the coming season. Well, so how

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<v Speaker 1>should we approach the coming season? Uh? Well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I heard you say there's a lot going on, and

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<v Speaker 1>there is a lot going on, but in many ways,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of it is a lot of noise. I think, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we have to look at the coming season like we've

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<v Speaker 1>been looking at the last six months. It is all

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<v Speaker 1>going to get back to those basic things that I've

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<v Speaker 1>talked about before. Whether we're talking about the COVID itself,

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<v Speaker 1>which is starting to come up again we're seeing more

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<v Speaker 1>cases again, or whether we're even talking about flu, which

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be on the horizon here in another

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<v Speaker 1>month or two. And so what do we know at

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<v Speaker 1>this point? Dr Roberts and I sort of alluded to

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<v Speaker 1>this when we were talking about it a little earlier

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<v Speaker 1>in the show. What do we know now that will

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<v Speaker 1>help us effectively contain outbreaks that we know we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to come? Right? We know there's no vaccine, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>cure for this, and so I think it's impossible the

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<v Speaker 1>things like this is just gonna go away. So we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna see some outbreaks. What do we know about the

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<v Speaker 1>most effective ways to deal with it? Is it just

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<v Speaker 1>the simple things that we know? Or how should we

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<v Speaker 1>be thinking about it? So? Um, sure, Jason, So I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's what do we know is in two ways?

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<v Speaker 1>One is what do we know and what can we

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<v Speaker 1>do as individuals? The other is what do we know

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<v Speaker 1>and what can we do as communities. And I'll talk

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<v Speaker 1>about the communities first because I think you mentioned New York.

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<v Speaker 1>I think New York has done a great job. Many

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<v Speaker 1>of the states that were hit so badly earlier this year,

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<v Speaker 1>around New York, everyone is doing much much better with testing,

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<v Speaker 1>and with that testing capability that you all have out there,

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing is we're able to identify little hotspots

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<v Speaker 1>of disease. So rather than New York or Boston or

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<v Speaker 1>a large city being really blindsided with COVID, when we

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<v Speaker 1>test a lot, we can see neighborhoods or even parts

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<v Speaker 1>of neighborhoods with COVID breaking out, and then we can

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<v Speaker 1>come in and really put in our efforts around masking

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<v Speaker 1>and distancing to keep that under keep that COVID infection

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<v Speaker 1>from spreading further. I mean it's as important, yeah, but

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's as simple as this, right. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>Jason and I joke about it a lot, like wear

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<v Speaker 1>a mask, because if you go to the CDC website,

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<v Speaker 1>it's like wear a mask, you know, even the head right.

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<v Speaker 1>The director of the CDC said that's almost more potent

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<v Speaker 1>right now, certainly, or could be as as much as

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<v Speaker 1>a as a vaccine would be. So when we see

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<v Speaker 1>these bursts in whether it's New York City or other

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<v Speaker 1>places of the country or over in the UK, is

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<v Speaker 1>it just simply because people are not wearing masks and

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<v Speaker 1>they're not social distancing. Is it just as simple as that,

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<v Speaker 1>or is it because as the world gets colder, or

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<v Speaker 1>is there something environmental that we're just gonna unfortunately have

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<v Speaker 1>to live with the second wave of this. No, it

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<v Speaker 1>is as simple as that. But we also are going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to live with a second wave of it, because, um,

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<v Speaker 1>we can keep this under control. I think Dr Redfield

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<v Speaker 1>said it well last week to Congress. While we all

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<v Speaker 1>wait for vaccines that we hope we're going to be effective,

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<v Speaker 1>the most effective thing we have right now is a mask. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so go ahead, no, no, no no, please finish. Yeah. So

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<v Speaker 1>most effective thing is a mask. The second most effective

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<v Speaker 1>thing is just reducing the number of people that you

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<v Speaker 1>interact with and keeping distance from them. It is that simple.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk to us about the flu, the common the more

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<v Speaker 1>seasonal flu, and how that plays in here. Well, it

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<v Speaker 1>plays in really well because the same things that we're

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<v Speaker 1>doing around COVID, we will keep flu under wraps if

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<v Speaker 1>we keep those masks on and keep that distancing. And

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<v Speaker 1>then of course with flu, we have vaccine. We know

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine works, and so getting getting your flu shot

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<v Speaker 1>early is going to be a great idea. You know

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<v Speaker 1>what I want to ask you, Dr Roberts, because I

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<v Speaker 1>actually was at the doctor this morning and wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>get a flu shot, and they're like, really sorry, but

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<v Speaker 1>the flu shots haven't come in from the West coast

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<v Speaker 1>because of the fires that there have been delays, and

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<v Speaker 1>I just thought, I'm just curious. And then I got

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<v Speaker 1>into a conversation with the doctor who was saying that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there are some concerns I think about production

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<v Speaker 1>gearing up for vaccines for the virus, the COVID nineteen virus.

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<v Speaker 1>So I do wonder do we need to be worried?

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<v Speaker 1>Will there be enough flu vaccines? Will they come in

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<v Speaker 1>time so that we don't have to pile that on

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<v Speaker 1>top of our worries. Um, sure, Carol, I think we

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<v Speaker 1>are in great shape with flu vaccine. I'm a little

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<v Speaker 1>surprised that your doctor didn't have the vaccine. I know

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<v Speaker 1>that it's stocked pretty much across the western and Central

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<v Speaker 1>United States. I had not checked into the Eastern States,

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<v Speaker 1>but UM clinics have been set up pretty much throughout

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<v Speaker 1>the western two thirds of the US UM and I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's not going to be a problem of shortages

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<v Speaker 1>with the flu vaccine on COVID. We are making plans now,

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<v Speaker 1>we are we're starting to make our plans for how

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to vaccinate folks when vaccines becomes available, and

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<v Speaker 1>we are penciling in late November at the time when

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<v Speaker 1>we hope to see the first vaccine, and we think

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<v Speaker 1>that we probably would see adequate supplies about nine months later. Interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>So in the meantime, talk to us about schools, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, both elementary and secondary high school, but also colleges.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, this has become one of the critical questions

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<v Speaker 1>and one of the critical I dare say, sort of

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<v Speaker 1>controversies that we're all looking at right now. How do

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<v Speaker 1>you read it, well, Jason, I think the primary and

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<v Speaker 1>secondary schools, I think are one topic and colleges are

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<v Speaker 1>totally separate topic. And I will say I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>no more difficult circumstance to deal with the policymakers than

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<v Speaker 1>primary and secondary schools. How if you bring kids back

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<v Speaker 1>even in places that have low prevalence of disease right now.

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<v Speaker 1>If you bring kids back, it's hard to socially distanced kids,

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<v Speaker 1>especially grade schoolers. How do you keep them from sharing

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<v Speaker 1>their fluids? I mean, gosh, we've all had kids in

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<v Speaker 1>grade school. Yeah. Yeah, And and so I think we

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<v Speaker 1>see a lot of districts trying lots of approaches, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a hybrid approach in areas where there's very little outbreak

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<v Speaker 1>right now, and then more homes, you know, virtual schooling

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<v Speaker 1>and places with higher outbreaks. Listen. One thing I want

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<v Speaker 1>to bring in our Vince Signarella, who we talked at

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<v Speaker 1>He watches the markets for us. We talked to him

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<v Speaker 1>at the top of our broadcast Dr Roberts, and he

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<v Speaker 1>just sent us a headline from the Washington Post. Study

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<v Speaker 1>shows coronavirus is mutating, potentially evolving, like we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>enough to worry about. What does that mean? We would

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<v Speaker 1>expect that, and we've seen mutations already and a trigge

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<v Speaker 1>in in virology. Mutations are expected, they're common, and generally

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<v Speaker 1>with new viruses, mutations are good news because hands they

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<v Speaker 1>tend to become less virulent. So when we see mutations

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<v Speaker 1>with early with new viruses, they tend to be less

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<v Speaker 1>They create less severe disease than the previews. But do

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<v Speaker 1>we have to keep chasing new vaccines to deal with

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<v Speaker 1>it or now? And just got about thirty seconds here.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know yet, too early to tell, but those

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine makers are expecting mutations to occur, so you can

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<v Speaker 1>be assured that they are designing for those mutations. All right, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we always learned so much from you and your team.

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<v Speaker 1>We really appreciate it. Dr Joan Roberts, Chief Value Officer

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<v Speaker 1>of Providence St. Joseph hel joining us from Washington State.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, that is where we all first heard about

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<v Speaker 1>and encountered this from a domestic perspective. So they Dr

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<v Speaker 1>robertson her team have been watching this so closely and

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<v Speaker 1>have been very kind to share a lot of those

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<v Speaker 1>findings with us, and you know, keeping us honest on

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<v Speaker 1>candidly care what we know what. We don't know what

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<v Speaker 1>the best advice is at any given time. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that's clear, we do know the best way

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<v Speaker 1>to at least send this off. Wear a mask, Wear

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<v Speaker 1>a mask, social distancing it works. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>this week, especially Equality issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a compliment to today's Bloomberg Equality Summit and the

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<v Speaker 1>cover story about how it's time for a new approach

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<v Speaker 1>to cure inequality because capitalism will, folks, it just isn't

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<v Speaker 1>cutting it. Let's get into this story with Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 1>Diversity and Sustainability reporter Rebecca Greenfield. She's on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in Brooklyn. Also with us Bloomberg business Week editor Joel

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<v Speaker 1>Webber on the phone in Massachusetts. Very provocative cover story,

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<v Speaker 1>Are you here, Joel? Yeah? And UM credit to Rebecca,

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<v Speaker 1>who has done a number of stories for us this year,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think this is their second cover UM in

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<v Speaker 1>in this space. And when we started started talking to

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<v Speaker 1>her about how we wanted to approach the quality issue,

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<v Speaker 1>I think she really came at it almost like a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of a sequel to her last cover story,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was the idea that the last time, it

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<v Speaker 1>was the idea that businesses just have a dearth of

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<v Speaker 1>of of black or minority CEOs, people of color, um

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<v Speaker 1>and with a really really provocative cover that showed just

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<v Speaker 1>how white the fortune is. And this time I think

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<v Speaker 1>she went even a little bit bigger about this and said,

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<v Speaker 1>look like, actually the force of that companies have been

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<v Speaker 1>relying on here is the market. The market is supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to correct things, and it's clue clearly not working. And

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<v Speaker 1>even more provocative, I think, is this idea that within

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<v Speaker 1>HR departments D and I of the Diversity and Initiative

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<v Speaker 1>crew has actually been part of the problem. Almost I

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<v Speaker 1>could pick it up from there. Yeah, thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for having me and I yeah definitely also seated as

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<v Speaker 1>a follow up to the last piece. But like Joe said,

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<v Speaker 1>the driving force behind diversity and inclusion initiative to the

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<v Speaker 1>last three decades has been this market driven approach. So

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<v Speaker 1>this idea that you know, discrimination and inequality is bad

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<v Speaker 1>for business. Um, you know, you're you're losing out on

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<v Speaker 1>productive people if you discriminate I guess people just because

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<v Speaker 1>they look like And also there's so much research showing

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<v Speaker 1>that diverse teams are just better and more productive. And

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<v Speaker 1>this has been driving the dconied apartment and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars of industry to get more people who

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<v Speaker 1>are women and minorities into high paying jobs. And in

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<v Speaker 1>the piece, um, I get into how that hasn't worked.

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<v Speaker 1>But also you know how the George Floyd protests this

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<v Speaker 1>summer um have led to a bit of a shift

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 1>in thinking away from this kind of dominant theory. And

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:10.360
<v Speaker 1>so Becca, what are people actually doing about it? I

0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.440
<v Speaker 1>mean part of what you know, I know you and

0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 1>your team have described as this is obviously moving from

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 1>the fringes into the mainstream, into the main conversation. That's

0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.120
<v Speaker 1>one of the pillars of everything we're doing with the

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.959
<v Speaker 1>Equality Summit. But what sort of actual movement are we

0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.720
<v Speaker 1>seeing or is the entire point that we're not actually

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:32.000
<v Speaker 1>seeing anything. We're so actually are seeing some changes, And

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.480
<v Speaker 1>I think the biggest thing is, you know, this is

0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 1>not going to sound like that. It's a mindset shift.

0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.000
<v Speaker 1>So before it was kind of like diversity is good,

0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.160
<v Speaker 1>and now it's like, Okay, racism is still happening, and

0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.679
<v Speaker 1>so we need to do things combat racism. I think

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.719
<v Speaker 1>we can add that to other isms that racisms in

0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.360
<v Speaker 1>the focus um for the summer for a good reason.

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:53.720
<v Speaker 1>So I think that's been a big shift, because you

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 1>do different things once you start thinking about it in

0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:00.640
<v Speaker 1>terms of fixing racism as opposed to promoting diversity. And

0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:03.040
<v Speaker 1>I think The biggest thing that I've noticed that's more

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:07.000
<v Speaker 1>tangible than in mindset shift is things that look very

0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 1>similar to and I would describe as quotas um, which

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.720
<v Speaker 1>is what my first article was about, which I remember

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 1>that that was really great because I really thought about that.

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, does this is this what we need to do? Yeah?

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 1>I think companies, although they are reluctant to actually call

0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.200
<v Speaker 1>it that because they're very scared of the word for

0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 1>various reasons, they are something like, we are going to

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.120
<v Speaker 1>aim to have a certain number or percentage of black

0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:38.320
<v Speaker 1>people or Latin next people in certain high paying, high

0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 1>power roles. And that is difference. They had not done

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:45.040
<v Speaker 1>anything bad aggressive before the Five Lives Matter protests, and

0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:48.120
<v Speaker 1>I think it's things like that that might move the

0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 1>needle more or a very least just trying something different

0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 1>and then and that's a big shift in the last

0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 1>couple of months compared to the last thirty years. Back

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 1>in one of the most provocative things, I'm gonna steal

0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.080
<v Speaker 1>your here a little bit um or at least let

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>you steal your own thunder, uh is your opening anecdote

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 1>from seventeen um that is about Apple. Can you share

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:13.120
<v Speaker 1>that one because it's such a provocative way into the story. Yeah.

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:16.720
<v Speaker 1>So in twenty seventeen, the woman who is hanging up

0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:19.640
<v Speaker 1>Apple's diversity and Incision department, she sing at a conference

0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:23.120
<v Speaker 1>and she said, in her own arks, she said, there

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 1>can be twelve white blue eyes, blonde men in a room,

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:29.640
<v Speaker 1>and they're going to be diverse, and they're going to

0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 1>bring a different life experience and life perspective to the conversation.

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 1>And she apologized for those remarks because you know, people said, uh,

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's not really diversity. But it was realing

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.200
<v Speaker 1>that that the mission to get more women and minorities

0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:47.640
<v Speaker 1>up and down the Colvor ladder had really become diluted,

0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 1>and it really become driven by this idea we just

0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.360
<v Speaker 1>made diversity of thought and experiences. And when you think, like, yeah,

0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 1>it's true, like a certain of you know, white blonde,

0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 1>blue eyed man from me or twenty is going to

0:15:59.880 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 1>be evernten at white blood blad man from somewhere else,

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.600
<v Speaker 1>But it does not has nothing to do with the

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:09.560
<v Speaker 1>original mission of getting more women and minorities higher as

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.800
<v Speaker 1>the coorperater. You know. The one thing is, and I

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 1>think about targets, right, I mean, if we want transparency

0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:18.120
<v Speaker 1>like we need to unfortunately, especially early on, look at

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>the numbers, find out where we're lacking as companies and

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.360
<v Speaker 1>institutions Rebecca right. And then it is kind of a

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.720
<v Speaker 1>simple fix if you just set some targets to say, Okay,

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 1>we need to consciously think about this and make sure

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.080
<v Speaker 1>we up the numbers. That's how you can kind of

0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>change this. It feels like in a in a in

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:40.560
<v Speaker 1>a much faster manner. Yeah, And I think the one

0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.800
<v Speaker 1>thing that's missing from that is where are the consequences?

0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think right now it's self imposed. And I think,

0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's up to journalists and consumerism however, to say, like, okay,

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 1>where are you on this? You know, you made those

0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.120
<v Speaker 1>the promise or target you know, in five years and

0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.920
<v Speaker 1>you met it um. But I think you know, the

0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 1>things that work are you know, chastising people when they

0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.600
<v Speaker 1>don't when they don't meet their their quotas. And we've

0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 1>seen that before with the California boards law, which has

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.800
<v Speaker 1>also written about before that you know, uh, there's a

0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:13.760
<v Speaker 1>penalty a hundred thousand dollars, which you know is in

0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:15.680
<v Speaker 1>a ton of money for big companies, but there is

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.760
<v Speaker 1>a penalty if you don't have a woman on your board.

0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:21.600
<v Speaker 1>And I think and that really moved companies to move.

0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:24.400
<v Speaker 1>So we'll we'll see as kind of this the public

0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.199
<v Speaker 1>reckoning is enough to keep companies on it, but I

0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:29.240
<v Speaker 1>definitely think, yeah, the target is a stub one stub

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:33.440
<v Speaker 1>to is this pressure right? Right? Well? Uh, we love

0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 1>your work and the work that you've been doing, not

0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 1>just for Bloomberg Business Week but really running this team

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:43.320
<v Speaker 1>that is taking this on has been spectacular. So thank you,

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:46.840
<v Speaker 1>Rebecca Greenfield. Really good to catch up with you. Rebecca Greenfield,

0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 1>she oversees all of the managing diversity coverage for Bloomberg.

0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.320
<v Speaker 1>She joined us on the phone from New York. Till Webber,

0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:56.800
<v Speaker 1>the editor of the magazine the Special Equality Issue. He

0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:01.520
<v Speaker 1>joined us from Massachusetts. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:06.679
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right,

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:10.480
<v Speaker 1>so for Business Week Economics today, let's head down to

0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:12.960
<v Speaker 1>the a t L. Brad Dillman is their chief economists

0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:18.480
<v Speaker 1>for Courtland. He's been looking at the home sales numbers,

0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:22.080
<v Speaker 1>existing home sales numbers, and the broader housing data because housing,

0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:26.520
<v Speaker 1>we know Carol is such an important indicator of where

0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:29.919
<v Speaker 1>we are, where we've been, where we're going. Especially, we

0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:32.240
<v Speaker 1>all want to know where the heck we're going right now.

0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:35.080
<v Speaker 1>So Brad, really nice to catch up with you. What's

0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:37.760
<v Speaker 1>the most important thing we need to know? Actually before

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 1>I ask you that, because you're in the A tail

0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.880
<v Speaker 1>in my hometown. Um, how is it down there? What's

0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>going on? What's going on in Georgia? Right down here?

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:47.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, we finally got rid of that hot weather.

0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:49.879
<v Speaker 1>You look at our housing market, it's doing okay too.

0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.479
<v Speaker 1>I think we've seen some outperformance in multi family, more

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:56.119
<v Speaker 1>than we had expected given the condition. Kids back in school, Like,

0:18:56.160 --> 0:19:00.119
<v Speaker 1>what's going on around town? Well, our first grader is

0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 1>going to be doing homeschooling this year. Um, I think

0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:05.439
<v Speaker 1>it varies city to city. But I don't actually know

0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:08.400
<v Speaker 1>because I only got a first grader and in preschool,

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 1>so I don't focus on the on schooling. I focused

0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.320
<v Speaker 1>on housing. We know, we know, we get that, we

0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.000
<v Speaker 1>totally get that. But what I guess what we're trying

0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 1>to get at is as we talk with with individuals

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:21.080
<v Speaker 1>around the country, we do like to check in with

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:23.439
<v Speaker 1>them about how's it going on the virus because We

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:27.600
<v Speaker 1>had some news today of some you know, clusters in

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:30.160
<v Speaker 1>New York City where we're starting to see virus cases

0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:33.920
<v Speaker 1>pick up again. So we're just wondering, how's Atlanta doing. Yeah,

0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:36.200
<v Speaker 1>so as far as the virus directly, you know, it's

0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.640
<v Speaker 1>Georgia has picked up a little bit, but it isn't

0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.159
<v Speaker 1>anything that's truly affecting our day to day. Our office

0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 1>here at Courtlands has been opened for several months now,

0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 1>and most of our folks choose to come in. We

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:49.119
<v Speaker 1>do have a math policy, so people abide by that,

0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.240
<v Speaker 1>and if you go out, there are people with the restaurants,

0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:54.320
<v Speaker 1>so there's definitely still a social atmosphere going on that

0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:57.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of thing. But you know, our traffic is down

0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.439
<v Speaker 1>by a lot, and candidly, that makes it a lot

0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.919
<v Speaker 1>more livable. Yeah, oh my god, it's like Los Angeles

0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 1>sometimes and it's worse moments down in Atlanta. Well, what's

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:09.520
<v Speaker 1>interesting is your company is actually a multi family real

0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:13.439
<v Speaker 1>estate company, so you're involved in construction, design, property management,

0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, all of it. So you do have a

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 1>very strong window or clear window, if you will, into

0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:22.960
<v Speaker 1>what's going on in the housing market. You said traffic

0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:26.320
<v Speaker 1>is down, talk to us at bit about what you're seeing. Well,

0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 1>when I meant traffic, I meant traffic as on the road. Okay,

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.760
<v Speaker 1>we're still seeing plenty of interest in the communities itself,

0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:34.879
<v Speaker 1>you are you know, Yeah, multi family occupancies have been

0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.640
<v Speaker 1>at roughly a twenty year high prior to COVID. Now

0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:40.240
<v Speaker 1>they have come down a little bit. Atlanta has held up,

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, just fine. We haven't had any any notable

0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:46.119
<v Speaker 1>issues here. Our segment is really more and sort of

0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 1>a high b low a kind of a framework, and

0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 1>that is generally a white collar worker that hasn't been

0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:53.960
<v Speaker 1>affected by the kind of job losses we've seen in

0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:57.000
<v Speaker 1>leisure and hospitality. But if we go back to National,

0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, you had a very very tight market when

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:01.560
<v Speaker 1>it comes down to occupancies, they've come down a bit.

0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:03.639
<v Speaker 1>We think they may go down further, but we actually

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.600
<v Speaker 1>think there's the potential they could tighten back up in

0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:08.680
<v Speaker 1>about a year and a year and a half and

0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>we may see the re emergence some of those costs

0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.680
<v Speaker 1>of living pressures that we had that had really dominated

0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:16.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of social narratives back about a year a

0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:19.560
<v Speaker 1>year and a half ago. Yeah, So what about the

0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:23.320
<v Speaker 1>sort of geographic shifts that we're seeing, especially from sort

0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.200
<v Speaker 1>of a white collar perspective, you know, with people saying, well,

0:21:26.560 --> 0:21:28.720
<v Speaker 1>if I don't need to be in a New York

0:21:28.840 --> 0:21:32.680
<v Speaker 1>or San Francisco or Los Angeles, you know, I may

0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:38.040
<v Speaker 1>favor moving to a Nashville and Atlanta and Austin Denver.

0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Is that manifesting yet in the data that that you're seeing,

0:21:42.600 --> 0:21:47.399
<v Speaker 1>either within the company's holdings or in the more national

0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:50.200
<v Speaker 1>data that you're saying, Yeah, this has been a trend

0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:52.920
<v Speaker 1>for some time. So I would actually say that migration

0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:56.000
<v Speaker 1>to the sun Belt, which is precisely Courtland strategies to

0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:58.880
<v Speaker 1>be in the Sun Belt, migration really peaked about four

0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:01.720
<v Speaker 1>or five years ago, and it's actually been flowing now.

0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:04.960
<v Speaker 1>It's still underway. It's still very attreative to those jurisdictions

0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:07.639
<v Speaker 1>to be getting net inbound migrants from the Northeast and

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:10.160
<v Speaker 1>the West coast. It's still really helping to drive rent

0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:13.040
<v Speaker 1>and activity generally. It's not what it was four years ago.

0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:15.119
<v Speaker 1>Now when we look at it in terms of COVID,

0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:17.520
<v Speaker 1>we don't really see a lot of data yet. But

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:19.720
<v Speaker 1>what we do see is what we can see anecdotally

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:22.320
<v Speaker 1>and what we capture in our own data. Cortland is

0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:26.200
<v Speaker 1>the largest owner of multifamily apartment homes in both Atlanta

0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:28.720
<v Speaker 1>and in d f W that's Dallas Fort Worth. But

0:22:28.840 --> 0:22:30.480
<v Speaker 1>essentially what we can see there is we can still

0:22:30.480 --> 0:22:32.520
<v Speaker 1>see anecdotal evidence, that's to say, the piece of the

0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:34.560
<v Speaker 1>people who are coming in to tour our units or

0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:37.399
<v Speaker 1>people who tour our units online, where they are and

0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:40.000
<v Speaker 1>where they're coming from. And we're definitely still seeing a

0:22:40.040 --> 0:22:42.359
<v Speaker 1>movement of people out of the Northeast and in particular

0:22:42.720 --> 0:22:45.080
<v Speaker 1>in Phoenix for seeing a lot of folks from California

0:22:45.160 --> 0:22:47.959
<v Speaker 1>is still moving into Arizona and taking a look at

0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:51.520
<v Speaker 1>our communities. So what's what kind of visibility do you

0:22:51.600 --> 0:22:56.920
<v Speaker 1>have and what maybe looks like. Yeah, so we run

0:22:56.960 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 1>a suite of forecasting models. We forecast about forty five

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.919
<v Speaker 1>i've metropolitan areas the United States, maybe six D submarkets,

0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:06.879
<v Speaker 1>and we forecast effective rent growth and occupant sees and

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:09.840
<v Speaker 1>supplying demand. And what we're seeing right now is still

0:23:09.840 --> 0:23:13.280
<v Speaker 1>an expectation for a slowdown over the next call at

0:23:13.280 --> 0:23:16.919
<v Speaker 1>six months, we expect annual rent growth to actually be

0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:20.159
<v Speaker 1>negative in its in its upcoming prints and probably trough

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 1>in Q one of next year. And then we expect

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:27.800
<v Speaker 1>the market to retighten in the second half of a right,

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:34.280
<v Speaker 1>get to tighten in the first half, second second half. Yeah,

0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:36.160
<v Speaker 1>so a little bit of weakness in the year term

0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:39.320
<v Speaker 1>near term, once you know, the election uncertainty is behind us.

0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:40.960
<v Speaker 1>Once we get a little bit further in what at

0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:44.480
<v Speaker 1>least so far has been a v shape recovery in

0:23:44.560 --> 0:23:47.960
<v Speaker 1>employment markets, we expect that we'll see a retightening and

0:23:48.040 --> 0:23:49.960
<v Speaker 1>multi family and I should say a lot of this

0:23:50.040 --> 0:23:52.159
<v Speaker 1>truly goes back to some of the actions that had

0:23:52.200 --> 0:23:54.840
<v Speaker 1>been taken by policy makers coming out of the Great Recession,

0:23:55.280 --> 0:23:57.840
<v Speaker 1>and that was to stimulate home prices even though housing

0:23:57.920 --> 0:24:00.359
<v Speaker 1>was oversupplied, and even though labor mark gets were in

0:24:00.400 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 1>a terrible condition. The results of that has been, you know,

0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:08.520
<v Speaker 1>a large difficulty in delivering housing supply in any kind

0:24:08.560 --> 0:24:11.800
<v Speaker 1>of scale over the last ten years, and by our

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:14.359
<v Speaker 1>estimates and the estimates of others, this is what has

0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:17.800
<v Speaker 1>contributed to a prevailing undersupply of housing in the country,

0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:20.840
<v Speaker 1>not just in terms of listed inventory, but the physical

0:24:20.840 --> 0:24:24.080
<v Speaker 1>product for people to live in. Interesting. All right, Well,

0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.400
<v Speaker 1>thanks for the update. We really appreciated. Good luck down

0:24:26.400 --> 0:24:30.160
<v Speaker 1>there in Atlanta. Brad Dillman, Chief economists for Courtland joining

0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:33.199
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from the A t L. Hopefully

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:35.399
<v Speaker 1>he can help the Falcons get a win because they

0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:37.520
<v Speaker 1>are really having a tough time. But just saying, our

0:24:37.520 --> 0:24:40.760
<v Speaker 1>buddy Arthur Blank had a very very bad weekend again

0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:49.640
<v Speaker 1>right again, yes, the journal. But you let me drive.

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:54.399
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the

0:24:54.520 --> 0:25:05.560
<v Speaker 1>right I want to drive. Just drive, baby, the questions trying.

0:25:12.000 --> 0:25:15.800
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the close. Thanks, We'll drying

0:25:15.920 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 1>us down on Bluebird Radio. Alright, time for the Drive

0:25:20.880 --> 0:25:23.000
<v Speaker 1>to the clothes. Let's check in with Mark C. Smith.

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:27.200
<v Speaker 1>He's vice president Wealth Management portfolio manager for UBS Financial Services.

0:25:27.200 --> 0:25:30.000
<v Speaker 1>He joined me. He's joining us on the phone from

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:35.200
<v Speaker 1>New York City, Mark, how are you? How are things? Well? Yeah,

0:25:35.240 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 1>we're doing the best we can on the circumstances. Uh.

0:25:37.840 --> 0:25:39.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, most of us are still working from home,

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:41.640
<v Speaker 1>but we're going to the office from time to time,

0:25:41.680 --> 0:25:44.000
<v Speaker 1>so we're just making the best of it. Yeah. Yeah.

0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:46.280
<v Speaker 1>And so how does that change the way that like

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:49.520
<v Speaker 1>you deal with clients and sort of talk to them,

0:25:49.520 --> 0:25:53.240
<v Speaker 1>because I'm sure everybody's in similar circumstances, but it's got

0:25:53.240 --> 0:25:56.680
<v Speaker 1>to change the way that your sort of world operates.

0:25:56.720 --> 0:26:00.440
<v Speaker 1>I would imagine, yeah, it's it's it's turned to everybody's

0:26:00.440 --> 0:26:03.719
<v Speaker 1>life upside down. But I think what this is bringing

0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:07.360
<v Speaker 1>to everyone is resiliency and I'm seeing that firsthand every

0:26:07.359 --> 0:26:11.240
<v Speaker 1>single day with my clients. I have clients that owned restaurants.

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:14.800
<v Speaker 1>They are completely changing their model to ordering online and

0:26:14.880 --> 0:26:18.280
<v Speaker 1>delivery service and that's making up much of their revenue,

0:26:18.800 --> 0:26:21.399
<v Speaker 1>especially the ones that are in New York. But the

0:26:21.400 --> 0:26:24.200
<v Speaker 1>ones that have some clients that have restaurants and airports,

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:26.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they're just they have no way of getting

0:26:26.800 --> 0:26:31.640
<v Speaker 1>out of this um because riderships down on most US carriers,

0:26:32.320 --> 0:26:35.480
<v Speaker 1>So those folks are really struggling. You're seeing though that

0:26:35.520 --> 0:26:39.399
<v Speaker 1>the professional class folks that can work from home with

0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:41.600
<v Speaker 1>a with a with a laptop are saving up an

0:26:41.600 --> 0:26:45.800
<v Speaker 1>extraordinarily amount of extraordinary amount of money and they're able

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:48.280
<v Speaker 1>to purchase homes in the suburbs. And that's why you're

0:26:48.280 --> 0:26:51.800
<v Speaker 1>seeing UH sales and the suburbs a record highs. And

0:26:51.880 --> 0:26:55.000
<v Speaker 1>you're seeing a flight from you know, major metropolitan you

0:26:55.040 --> 0:26:57.480
<v Speaker 1>know areas because you're you're you're an apartment building. So

0:26:57.480 --> 0:26:59.639
<v Speaker 1>many of my clients are just are are high talent

0:26:59.680 --> 0:27:03.320
<v Speaker 1>and York and going to the Hamptons or Connecticut and

0:27:03.400 --> 0:27:07.080
<v Speaker 1>deep in Jersey where they're getting you know, sometimes doubling

0:27:07.119 --> 0:27:11.160
<v Speaker 1>their living space. We're definitely seeing it. Does it stick, Mark,

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 1>or do you think it's just until we get through this.

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:16.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, a house purchase is not something you buy

0:27:16.040 --> 0:27:18.240
<v Speaker 1>and then like change your mind the next week. But

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:22.879
<v Speaker 1>I get that, But I'm just curious. This is changing

0:27:23.119 --> 0:27:27.640
<v Speaker 1>the paradigm for probably our generation. I think that it's

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:31.880
<v Speaker 1>going to be very difficult to tell folks to come

0:27:31.880 --> 0:27:34.480
<v Speaker 1>back in when they worked for a full year, possibly

0:27:34.560 --> 0:27:38.440
<v Speaker 1>too from home and productivity didn't go down, it went up.

0:27:39.040 --> 0:27:42.240
<v Speaker 1>So I don't see any employer telling folks who who

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:44.399
<v Speaker 1>are doing well in this environment that they have to

0:27:44.400 --> 0:27:46.919
<v Speaker 1>go back to the office when a vaccine is distributed

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:49.120
<v Speaker 1>in the next you know, three or four years, because

0:27:49.160 --> 0:27:50.960
<v Speaker 1>let's be honest, even if it's we we get a

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:53.680
<v Speaker 1>vaccine next year, you're talking about a two year implementation

0:27:53.680 --> 0:27:56.760
<v Speaker 1>of getting that out to three million plus Americans. So

0:27:57.000 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's the reality is that once we figure

0:27:59.320 --> 0:28:02.720
<v Speaker 1>this out and are adapting quickly and they're continuing to

0:28:02.720 --> 0:28:04.520
<v Speaker 1>make money. You're seeing that in some of the SMP

0:28:04.600 --> 0:28:07.040
<v Speaker 1>five hundred stocks. I mean, folks are really killing it

0:28:07.080 --> 0:28:09.760
<v Speaker 1>in this environment. Unfortunately, the rest of the country isn't.

0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 1>And if you're working for one of those companies that

0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:14.400
<v Speaker 1>are just doing really well, I don't see them making

0:28:14.400 --> 0:28:16.159
<v Speaker 1>you come back to the office, right And we're going

0:28:16.200 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 1>to talk to General Mills, the CEO. They reported earnings today,

0:28:19.320 --> 0:28:21.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, and people have been stocking up their pantries

0:28:21.400 --> 0:28:22.720
<v Speaker 1>and so we're gonna get an idea of kind of

0:28:22.760 --> 0:28:24.919
<v Speaker 1>what the outlook is. Um we want to move on

0:28:24.960 --> 0:28:26.920
<v Speaker 1>to the markets. But one more question you talk about,

0:28:26.960 --> 0:28:30.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, nobody really pressuring because productivity is we're doing

0:28:30.720 --> 0:28:33.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, doing well, and a lot of industries and

0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:35.440
<v Speaker 1>companies we're seeing a play out in the market. Having

0:28:35.480 --> 0:28:37.879
<v Speaker 1>said that, there is pressure though within the financial sector,

0:28:38.320 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 1>it seems like for people to get back to office,

0:28:41.080 --> 0:28:44.080
<v Speaker 1>especially in New York City. Well, I think what the

0:28:44.080 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 1>financial sectors realizing is that they have the biggest uh

0:28:48.000 --> 0:28:51.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, foothold in lending money out for the purchases

0:28:51.480 --> 0:28:56.000
<v Speaker 1>of commercial property, residential property. They have the biggest amount

0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 1>of to lose if things don't get back to someone

0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:00.760
<v Speaker 1>in normality pretty quickly because they're on the look for

0:29:01.120 --> 0:29:03.719
<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars of these buildouts of these major cities.

0:29:03.920 --> 0:29:05.880
<v Speaker 1>So they've got a lead by example because they've got

0:29:05.920 --> 0:29:08.400
<v Speaker 1>the most to lose, in my opinion, and so they've

0:29:08.440 --> 0:29:10.120
<v Speaker 1>they've got to get workers back in it. Got to

0:29:10.120 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>start building some confidence in these major cities. Otherwise people

0:29:13.040 --> 0:29:14.680
<v Speaker 1>are just gonna cut and run and they're gonna be

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.760
<v Speaker 1>loved with the bag. That's my opinion. That's really interesting.

0:29:18.000 --> 0:29:20.560
<v Speaker 1>You sort of have to prove that you're in it

0:29:20.880 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 1>so that uh so that your clients ultimately will pony up.

0:29:25.800 --> 0:29:29.440
<v Speaker 1>Very interesting. So, Mark, we are talking all the time

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:32.320
<v Speaker 1>on this show. I think probably around our kitchen tables

0:29:32.360 --> 0:29:35.520
<v Speaker 1>are dining room tables when we're socially distanced with neighbors

0:29:35.520 --> 0:29:39.680
<v Speaker 1>and whatnot. About the election. You know, we're forty one,

0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:43.600
<v Speaker 1>forty two days away at this point. As an investor,

0:29:44.000 --> 0:29:48.760
<v Speaker 1>how should you be thinking about this? This is gonna

0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:51.680
<v Speaker 1>be one of the most consequenceial elections of our generation

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:56.520
<v Speaker 1>because you'd have you know, two completely different candidates, the

0:29:56.560 --> 0:29:59.440
<v Speaker 1>country split you know, down the middle depending on where

0:29:59.440 --> 0:30:02.160
<v Speaker 1>you live, and that this is going to create a

0:30:02.160 --> 0:30:05.800
<v Speaker 1>tremendous amount of volatility and portfolios for the next forty

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:08.960
<v Speaker 1>odd days and there's there's a good reason that we

0:30:09.000 --> 0:30:11.240
<v Speaker 1>have you know, sixty million people out of have of

0:30:11.280 --> 0:30:14.640
<v Speaker 1>apply for unemployment over the last twenty six weeks, you know,

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:18.120
<v Speaker 1>and right now, uh, we're we're kind of ignoring them.

0:30:18.120 --> 0:30:19.840
<v Speaker 1>We're just kind of looking at them five hundreds. And

0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:21.600
<v Speaker 1>so that's going to play out in in this election

0:30:21.640 --> 0:30:23.120
<v Speaker 1>as well as in in a big way. I don't

0:30:23.160 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>think where I think we're underestimating how many people are

0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:27.600
<v Speaker 1>hurting in this country. And then and then you're depending

0:30:27.640 --> 0:30:29.840
<v Speaker 1>on a stimulus plan. Let me tell you something. If

0:30:29.880 --> 0:30:32.640
<v Speaker 1>the Republicans shove a set of a Supreme Court justice

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 1>um and in the next forty days, I don't see

0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:38.640
<v Speaker 1>any reason why the Democrats would go and and help

0:30:38.720 --> 0:30:41.760
<v Speaker 1>them out get the second simulus package. And we need

0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 1>a second stimulus package. That's why the markets are reacting

0:30:44.240 --> 0:30:45.800
<v Speaker 1>in the way they are to they were down six hundred.

0:30:46.160 --> 0:30:49.360
<v Speaker 1>It's because we don't see any end insight, no help

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:52.000
<v Speaker 1>insight from the federal government. Besides what the Fed has

0:30:52.000 --> 0:30:54.520
<v Speaker 1>already done. Rates are basically zero. There's not much more

0:30:54.520 --> 0:30:57.080
<v Speaker 1>they can do. They've got to look the Congress. Congress

0:30:57.120 --> 0:30:59.880
<v Speaker 1>now has a huge issue. They are split out to

0:30:59.920 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the Supreme Court, and they're not going to work together

0:31:01.840 --> 0:31:04.000
<v Speaker 1>until they figure that out. Therefore, we don't see a

0:31:04.000 --> 0:31:08.120
<v Speaker 1>stimulus package. Probably untie how many Americans can deal with

0:31:08.160 --> 0:31:10.600
<v Speaker 1>that amount of uncertainty. So this election is going to

0:31:10.680 --> 0:31:13.600
<v Speaker 1>be huge in in that um folks are trying to

0:31:13.600 --> 0:31:15.040
<v Speaker 1>figure out how they're going to be able to make

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:18.720
<v Speaker 1>money with a Democrat or Republican in office, depending on

0:31:18.800 --> 0:31:22.520
<v Speaker 1>who you are. I understand why you would fall on

0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:25.440
<v Speaker 1>either side of the coin. But the problem is is

0:31:25.480 --> 0:31:27.920
<v Speaker 1>that until this is all sorted out, it will not

0:31:27.960 --> 0:31:31.280
<v Speaker 1>be sorted out on November three. That's additional volatility to

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:34.680
<v Speaker 1>what we have right now. So you know, that's the

0:31:34.720 --> 0:31:36.560
<v Speaker 1>that's the real thing. How much more upside do we

0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:39.200
<v Speaker 1>have in this market to stay in with all this

0:31:39.280 --> 0:31:41.680
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty around us? I feel like the debate needs to

0:31:41.680 --> 0:31:44.160
<v Speaker 1>be is it going to be the distressed investment story

0:31:44.200 --> 0:31:49.040
<v Speaker 1>going into or will it be you know, the recovery cycle? Uh?

0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:52.600
<v Speaker 1>In terms of what what the story and theme will be.

0:31:53.080 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>We can't recover without a vaccine, bottom line, So if

0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:00.480
<v Speaker 1>we don't have a vaccine, we're not recover ring. How

0:32:00.520 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>could we move forward and the economy in the stock

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:05.600
<v Speaker 1>market it's gonna be very hard to do because it's

0:32:05.680 --> 0:32:07.840
<v Speaker 1>because because if people are gonna come continue to close

0:32:07.880 --> 0:32:11.720
<v Speaker 1>down to schools, their businesses or restaurants opening and closing

0:32:11.840 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 1>untildars of vaccine, and how do you get back to

0:32:13.960 --> 0:32:17.000
<v Speaker 1>normal if that's happening, right and seeing it already in London,

0:32:17.120 --> 0:32:20.720
<v Speaker 1>and some worries about certain parts of New York City.

0:32:20.840 --> 0:32:22.600
<v Speaker 1>Hey Mark, great to have you here. Look forward to

0:32:22.640 --> 0:32:25.160
<v Speaker 1>having you join us again in the future. Marxi Smith,

0:32:25.440 --> 0:32:29.160
<v Speaker 1>VP of Wealth Management and Portfolio Manager at UBS Financial Services,

0:32:29.200 --> 0:32:31.680
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York, coming in hot kind

0:32:31.680 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 1>of like that. I like it. Thanks so much for

0:32:33.840 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes,

0:32:36.680 --> 0:32:39.840
<v Speaker 1>South Cloud, Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:32:39.840 --> 0:32:41.640
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0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:44.440
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