1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app got her. 11 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 2: Montgomery Connick. 12 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:48,559 Speaker 3: She called me up. 13 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 4: She said, you know, I want to be on, and 14 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 4: they said send me your note and I'm like, yeah, 15 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 4: you know whatever. Ts Lombard and they do brilliant work. 16 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 4: She's director of macro Strategy there and they're in the 17 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 4: middle of her research note. 18 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 2: I don't know how many pages it is, fifteen sixteen 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 2: page is the absolute single best chart of the months, Skyler. 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 2: Montgomery Knic joins us right now, macro Strategy ts lomberd Skyler, 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 2: you got a scattered dot chart which compares a GDP 22 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: of different nations and their economics Surprise Index, And basically 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: it underscores how the US exceptionalism is all alone with 24 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 2: massive GDP, but even Sterling, where the election being called 25 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 2: is coming on as well. 26 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 5: What does that chart look like in a year? 27 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 2: What does a scattered ot chart of our expectations versus 28 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: actual GDP look like in twelve months? 29 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's really interesting, right because that chart 30 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 6: tells you two things. It tells you that the US 31 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 6: is outperforming on an absolute basis, and I expect in 32 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 6: a year's time that you still have that outperformance because 33 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 6: if you think about what the two global growth engines 34 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 6: of the world are, the US and China. China stimulating, 35 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 6: but it's not the kind of stimulus that you did before, 36 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 6: and it's not the kind of stimulus that's going to 37 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 6: be able to make countries like Europe and the UK 38 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 6: compete with the US. So in a year's time, I 39 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 6: think you still have US exceptionalism. But right now the 40 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 6: story is very interesting because you're having convergence because of 41 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 6: growth surprises, because we've had these massive upside surprises in 42 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 6: US growth consensus that's chased that upside surprise, right, So 43 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 6: we're now getting downside surprises. 44 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 2: Well, we're getting downside surprises, so they say, but I'm 45 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: looking at Atlanta GDP now, or look at domestic final 46 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 2: sales and these are actually pretty good numbers. When does 47 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 2: the party end? 48 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 6: Well, this is what's really interesting is we're getting downside surprises, 49 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 6: but we actually care where the surprises are coming from 50 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 6: as well. So if you look at Bloomberg's Economic Surprise 51 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 6: and dex it very handily gives you all of the components, 52 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 6: and what surprising to the downside is sentiment. And I 53 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 6: think that's largely related to the level of inflation as 54 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 6: well as being a pretty politically charged year, and so 55 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 6: I'm not as worried about the growth outlook. If it's sentiment, 56 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 6: that's the reason where surprising to the downside. 57 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: Skyler, I'd love to hear your thoughts here on king dollar. 58 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: I mean, you mentioned back at mid month that the 59 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: dollar was vulnerable over the short term. These still feel 60 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: that way. I mean, how quickly do those views on 61 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 1: the dollar change and where are we headed from here? 62 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 3: Yeah? 63 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 6: Sure, So, I mean for the dollar, you know, in 64 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 6: the short term, I'm still a bit cautious. We're seeing 65 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 6: more growth conversions with global growth kind of catching up 66 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 6: to US growth. At the same time, the FED has 67 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 6: had an asymmetric reaction function, where because we know they 68 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 6: don't want to hike, the market is looking for a 69 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 6: reason to be dubbish at the same time positioning you know, 70 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 6: it's come off of it, but it's still stretched along 71 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 6: the dollar. However, I am more positive in the medium term. 72 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 6: You know, growth is converging, but as I said, US 73 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 6: growth is still outperforming on an absolute basis. And the 74 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 6: key point is that we still need to price policy diversions. Yes, 75 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 6: the market is looking for the ECB to cut before 76 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 6: the FED, but over the next year and over the 77 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 6: next five years, policy pricing is pretty identical. So I 78 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 6: think you need to price in more dubbishness in Europe 79 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 6: and especially the UK, and that should be supportive for 80 00:03:59,280 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 6: the dollar. 81 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: Do you think euro dollar heads from here? I mean, 82 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: do you have a target there? 83 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 7: Yeah? 84 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 6: Sure, I mean I think one oh five is kind 85 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 6: of the next point you're looking for. On the downside, 86 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 6: you know, people are talking about parody because you get 87 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 6: these massive policy divergence. I don't think we're quite there 88 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 6: because the divergence is limited by the fact that you know, 89 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 6: the FED does want to cut at some point, and so. 90 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: You're talking about yield differentials here, right, and I believe 91 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right spot on that they have been a huge, 92 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: huge driver of currency movement. We can see that just 93 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: the high carry currencies versus the low carrier you know. 94 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: But you know, talk to me a little bit about 95 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: dollar yen here. Something's going on there. Tom's talking about 96 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: it all week long. Bojing. 97 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 5: You're going to be over the barbecue. 98 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 2: You know, Skyler's going to be, you know, gaming out 99 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 2: the British election, and you're going to have a massive 100 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 2: intervention the third time here. 101 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 5: Euro yen right now, Damien one's seventy point. 102 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: Four to seven of Skyler. I don't want time to 103 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: quote euro yen anymore. He's going to start quoting, quoting 104 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 1: peso yen for us. Talk to us a little bit 105 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: about the yen here. Is it's still a funding currency 106 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: and what other funding currency sort of stand out to 107 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: you in this environment. 108 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 6: I mean, it's absolutely still a funding currency for carry 109 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 6: trades to work, well, you need three things. You need 110 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 6: an interest rate differential with you have with the end. 111 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 6: You need low volatility because you don't want to lose 112 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 6: your shirt if you're only gaining five percent in income, 113 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 6: and you need positive resentment. And so it's certainly being 114 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 6: used as a funding currency. And what you see over 115 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 6: and over again is that unilateral intervention does not work. 116 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 6: So while they may be intervening, it's just kind of 117 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 6: stopping the bleeding rather than creating a reversal. For reversal, 118 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 6: you need that. 119 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 2: So to both of you, Damien Pickett, this is important folks. 120 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 2: Pick it up here within the trilemma. If you're going 121 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 2: to have a unilateral intervention which never works. I agree 122 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 2: with Skyler on that, Damien. What works And the only 123 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 2: thing that works is interest rates the central banks to 124 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 2: allow ten and thirty years to blow up much higher 125 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 2: than one percent. 126 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: When I look at my FX models, Tom, and it's 127 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: certainly real yield differentials that have driven done the heavy 128 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: lifting at least over the better part of the last 129 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: one t three year period in terms of currencies. But Skyler, 130 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 1: you know, take me through that. You know, what are 131 00:05:57,839 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: you looking at here? You know, as we push into 132 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: the summer slow down, I mean, what's going to drive 133 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: currency currency performance? 134 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 6: Well, this is the thing. I think it's gonna be 135 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 6: a summer slow down, it's gonna be low volatility continued. 136 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 6: We're having the push out of the cuts from the FED, 137 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 6: and so that means it's a continued carry environment, and 138 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 6: so carry can be quite positive. 139 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: Still, I look Skylar at the summation of all this, 140 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 2: and I slip in one more question here the election 141 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 2: suddenly in your United Kingdom? Is it really called just 142 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 2: because everyone thinks this as good as it gets for 143 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: the British economy. 144 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 6: I mean, I'm not sure. I have a huge commentary 145 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 6: on why it was called. I think from a market's perspective, 146 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 6: it doesn't really matter. And I see two reasons for 147 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 6: why it doesn't matter. The first is that labor has 148 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 6: been in the lead by a significant margin for a 149 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 6: very long time. Markets are good at pricing risk, and 150 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 6: so if there was anything to price, it would be 151 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 6: priced already. And the second is there's such limited fiscal 152 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 6: space in the UK. We've all kind of been scarred 153 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 6: by what happened with Liz Trust and neither party really 154 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 6: wants to play with that fiscal space, and so there's 155 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 6: not a lot of change that can be made that 156 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 6: can affect the economy and in turn rocket that's. 157 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 2: Great that you really steered around that for your general counsel, 158 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:12,119 Speaker 2: Skylar Montgomery coning there on Liz Truss as the chief 159 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 2: political correspondent for Ts Lombard. Right now, where the markets open, 160 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 2: the Dow up seventy three points, I guess I should 161 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 2: quote gold. That would be a good way to start with. 162 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 2: Exel Mark twenty three two, three hundred and sixty nine. 163 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 2: Exel Mark there were gold bugs and silver rights, William 164 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 2: McKinley and William Jennings Bryan, and then in the seventies 165 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 2: when I had wider lapels, there were gold bugs. Where 166 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 2: are the gold bugs now? Is it just about central 167 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 2: banking buying or is there a retail enthusiasm for gold? 168 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 3: He a good morning. I thought the golf talk was 169 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 3: the interview of the day. But let's let's talk gold here. 170 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 3: The until just recently it appeared that the US retail 171 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: investor was absent, at least on the exchange s head 172 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 3: of products. I've been buying physical gold, but not so 173 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 3: much on the ats. Mostly the Chinese retelled bias, and 174 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 3: obviously the Chinese Central Bank as well and the like 175 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 3: had been buying of late. That might have changed, I see, 176 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 3: might because a week or so doesn't make a trend yet. 177 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 3: But yes, much of the gold rally has happened without 178 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 3: broad retail participation in the US. 179 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 2: What does that signal to you? 180 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 3: That's a excellent question. I mean, if you are a 181 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 3: gold bug, then it means there's a lot of upside 182 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 3: potential when those folks finally come in. If you are 183 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 3: on the barrier side, you can say, well, it's been Lukewalm, 184 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 3: it's only the Chinese I've been buying. At some point 185 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 3: the Chinese Central Bank will stop buying. And by the way, 186 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 3: the FED is going to be more hawkish and so forth. 187 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 3: So with any of these things, gold is this one 188 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 3: asset that you're always glad you had, but never quite 189 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 3: know why you want to have it for tomorrow. And 190 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 3: so people put different spins on these stories. Is I 191 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 3: think your way. I've been a gold invest of for 192 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 3: many years and thuty ups and downs, and it's it's 193 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 3: about the psychology of gold investing is a completely different. 194 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: So I look at gold back twenty years. You can 195 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 2: do this on the Bloomberg folks. I'm doing this semi 196 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 2: log or percentage change matters. You know, there was a 197 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 2: quiet two to gold from twenty twelve ash on over 198 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: actually went down some, but it's amazing on a large shirt. 199 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 2: Damien Sasaur gold with his leg up to twenty three 200 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 2: forty six back twenty years is a legitimate trend and 201 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 2: really isn't extended. 202 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 4: I didn't know that. 203 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: Well for me, it's really what does drive gold and axel. 204 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: My question for you is, I've always been taught that 205 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: really yields are probably the best driver of the price 206 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: of gold. But you know, is it in he supplying 207 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: the man at this point? I mean, is it really 208 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: central bank buying this asymmetric sort of return profile for 209 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: gold that hey, you know now that these central banks 210 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: own it, they're not going to be selling it, and 211 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: you know the price only has up to go from here. 212 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 1: Is that kind of what I'm hearing? 213 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 3: Well, it's always supplying the man with with any asset, 214 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 3: and yes, the real yield is what we have been 215 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 3: quote unquote taught. But the one thing about gold is 216 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 3: correlations aren't stable. Whenever you think do you find a correlation, 217 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 3: it starts to break down. Take a correlation to equities. 218 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 3: Correlation to equity is in the long run is zero, 219 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 3: But it doesn't mean it's never correlated. It sometimes goes 220 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 3: with the s opinion, sometimes against the always just enough 221 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 3: to frustrate people. But indeed it has the coupled, so 222 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 3: to speak, from real yields. And most of what we 223 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 3: look at is longer term. It's like a seven or 224 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 3: ten year but those have broken down as well. Now 225 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 3: keep in mind that there are plenty of reasons to 226 00:10:56,040 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 3: be a gold bug. I mean, it's a and you 227 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 3: just mentioned some sad geopolitics. I happen to think that 228 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 3: what we see in in in gaza ors in Ukraine 229 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 3: are just symptoms of a new era. And and similarly, 230 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 3: of course the Chinese, they know that the dollar has 231 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: been used more as a financial weapon. So all these things, 232 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 3: if you want to be the glass of full guy, 233 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 3: that is it. But at the same time, right in 234 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 3: a short run, anything can happen. Gold a fantastic run. 235 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: Well, Axel, tell to us about the broader precious metals complex. 236 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,239 Speaker 1: I mean, are there opportunities for silver here, for platinum, palladium. 237 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 3: Well, the silver folks have finally a day to celebrate. 238 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 3: I mean that's the silver for long, long period lags. 239 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 3: The price of gold and silver seems to have broken 240 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 3: out from that a little bit. I'm a simpleton. I 241 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 3: focus on gold because it doesn't I call it the 242 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 3: purest indicator of the mania of policymakers at the FED 243 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,599 Speaker 3: and other central banks around the world. The moment you 244 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 3: go to other medals, it's industrial dynamics that play a 245 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,319 Speaker 3: much bigger role. And it may be in part that 246 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 3: the manufacturing pmis around the world are picking up, suggesting 247 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 3: that on the manufacturing side we are not entering a recession. 248 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 3: And that's why Silva's been doing things better, because the 249 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 3: Silva doesn't do so well in a recession usually. 250 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 2: In the time we got left with you, you've done 251 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,839 Speaker 2: a lot of work on dollar, and of course the 252 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 2: shock here has been strong strong dollar reaffirm the case 253 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 2: that the dollar could fall apart. 254 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 3: Well, we're talking on a Friday, so I might as 255 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 3: well speculate. I just mentioned the manufacturing pmis. The rest 256 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 3: of the world is more manufacturing heavy than the US. 257 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 3: They are strong, so the rest of the world, maybe 258 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 3: the central banks won't be easing quite as much, will 259 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 3: be more hawkish. We don't see that that speculation. In 260 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 3: the US. We are more services driven, the low end 261 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 3: consumers weakening the interest rate hikes are taking a bite 262 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 3: very slowly, so they're not biting really at the high 263 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 3: end consumer in front of because of the equity rally, 264 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 3: and so maybe the US is going to be more dabbagh, 265 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 3: especially with COLS bias. And on the day like today, 266 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 3: that story makes sense, but I think that's just speculation. 267 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 2: No one's listening. Twelve months from now, where's gold? Excelle 268 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 2: got to run Where's golden? Twelve months? 269 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 3: Well, we have a new administration and last time that 270 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 3: Trump was elected to to get elected again, and you 271 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 3: talked about the gold bugs earlier, all the problems were solved, 272 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 3: and then suddenly there was no interest in gold anymore 273 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 3: until late in the administration. And obviously it's it's usually 274 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 3: not just who was in office, but beyond the line 275 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 3: drive US. But the storyline may well change early next year. 276 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,199 Speaker 2: Excel Mark, thank you so much on gold. These is 277 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 2: merk investments. Right now, Louis Costa joins US. He's global 278 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 2: ahead of the it's City Group in a really important 279 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 2: position for City Group with all of their foreign reach. 280 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 2: In that Louise, I want to go to something you've 281 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 2: brought up as a run Niss moment that I've now. 282 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 5: Heard you're the third person, and I'll say eight days 283 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 5: that I have said, finally, Turkey, why is it now 284 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 5: finally after the massive tobaccle, the depreciation of Turkish leer, 285 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 5: or the chaos within their two tier domestic strategy, why 286 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 5: now finally Turkey? 287 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 7: A hi, thanks for having media, you know, finally because finally, uh, 288 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 7: they are trying really hard to converge to more orthodox 289 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 7: economic policy. And we know that that was the past, 290 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 7: that was the issue in the past, and but now 291 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 7: you know, after meeting so many policy makers from the 292 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 7: central Bank and even the wooding coming out of the government, 293 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 7: it feels like there's intention. They've been pursuing it for 294 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 7: at least a quarter or so, and this is the 295 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 7: starting basically to show in the effects in the in 296 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 7: the micro nobles genermy speak global. 297 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 2: Wall streetcause the name so many people know moments Simsek 298 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 2: And in the time that I spent an instant bull 299 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 2: I really got to know him quite well. Is this 300 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 2: a moment sim Sack? I mean, ex Merrill Lynch now 301 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 2: working with eerdo one in Turkey? Is this a sim 302 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 2: Sck revolution we're seeing in Turkey? 303 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 7: I wouldn't say you know shimshak revolution, but is we 304 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 7: have a very capable person at the helm of the 305 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 7: economic policy now and he's absolutely determined, right so if 306 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 7: politics allows, he will continue basically to develop this orthodox 307 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 7: economic agenda which means spider monetary conditions, which means some 308 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 7: degree of deceleration and economy. But all we know, if 309 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 7: you put this all together, it's very positive for the 310 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 7: Takeshlidra hence Hola Longa the leader. 311 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: So Louis, I mean, this is incredible. I mean, this 312 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: is first of all great to speak with you again. 313 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: I mean I open the show this morning talking about 314 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: the concept of idiosyncratic carry and how emerging markets can 315 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: kind of fill that gap. I know you mentioned Turkey here, 316 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: but talk to me about some of these other local 317 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: emerging markets like, for example, Egypt, Nigeria, I'm hearing about, 318 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: Dome Rep. I'm hearing about Uraguay. I mean, are those 319 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: viable markets for institutions to carry in the short end. 320 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 7: They are viable. They are vibal of course, I mean 321 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 7: different strokes for different folks, but they are you know, 322 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 7: depending on the jurisdiction, depending on the markets this place, 323 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 7: they tend to be more in liquid, so not every client, 324 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 7: not every global investor, will have the appetites to being 325 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 7: in liquid markets like this. But you mentioned something very important, 326 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 7: which is the search for carry. We are in this 327 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 7: environment where global financial volatility is at almost as cyclical 328 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 7: notes right, so, and in an environment where we are 329 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 7: still seeing some degree of deceleration coming from the developer markets, 330 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 7: although the US is definitely hotter than what we expected 331 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 7: it to be by now. But if you put this 332 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 7: all together, all we know it feels like a market 333 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 7: where you're going to be looking for carry opportunities front 334 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 7: end of the a high yield carry or high ut 335 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 7: biles and from tier now after so much correction in 336 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 7: their economic policy Egypt you mentioned right, they let the 337 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 7: currency goal, they high trades, So some of these juridictions 338 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 7: are offering very interesting opportunities for investors now. 339 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: And another high yoda that's getting a lot of play 340 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: in recent weeks is of course South Africa. And we 341 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 1: have an election coming up next week on Wednesday. Talk 342 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: to us a little bit about as an investor, I 343 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: mean the rand is rallied into this election. Talk to 344 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: us a little bit about how you can invest in 345 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: South Africa. Is it just the metals and mining play 346 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: on the equity side, is it really a carry play 347 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: on the fixed income side? I mean our sagb's back 348 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: in vogue. 349 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, as I said, GB's back in vogue. That's right. 350 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 7: We love the bonds. We love the bonds now and 351 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 7: we have an overweight in the bonds. We have an 352 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 7: overweight in the currency as well. And you mentioned this 353 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 7: commodity rarely we had recently over the past three months, 354 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 7: I mean in terms of trade for South Africa, they 355 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 7: have reached a new highs. So we continue to it 356 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 7: is and that future is true, the currency that futures 357 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 7: for the markets. Ahead of the elections, there was a 358 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 7: lot of investment premium price in when you know that 359 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 7: this political premium is finally receding. So we continue to 360 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 7: like South African bones now. We believe that that's where 361 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 7: most of the premium is located on the bones. 362 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 2: To both you and let me go to you Damien 363 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 2: for mere mortals. Listen to this Babbel and em can 364 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 2: they acquire what is easily acquireable in et F the 365 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 2: captures so called carry. 366 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: You know, I don't know of one, Luis, do you 367 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: know of any you know a vehicle for a retail 368 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: investor here in the US to really kind of isolate 369 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,360 Speaker 1: the carry trade and really invest in it. I don't 370 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: know of any. 371 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 3: Well that many. 372 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 7: I'm not going to recommend that ETF now it's they're 373 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 7: not paying for that, but it's up that there is, 374 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 7: that there are many ETFs are there right, so that 375 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 7: the options are available and they are plenty. 376 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 2: I want to get you in trouble with your general 377 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 2: counsel here, Lewis you know, I know you're doing an 378 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 2: em thing. Let's look at the emerging market Japan. The 379 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: fact is on a Friday, I'm looking at one seventy 380 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 2: euro yen just a two day exponential moving average. I'm 381 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 2: well through the intervention levels of. 382 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 5: What or two weeks ago, three weeks ago? 383 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 2: As well off of the City Group desk. Do you 384 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 2: look for Japan intervention action into our Sunday evening their 385 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 2: Monday morning. 386 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 7: It's very tough to pinpoint the timing and the last 387 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 7: times the markets tried to pinpoint the exact timing they 388 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 7: were wrong, right, or the boj was actually a law 389 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 7: more sensible and careful and not necessarily impacting the markets much. 390 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 7: We know that there was there was a lot of 391 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,919 Speaker 7: selling of dollars in the past when they felt uncomfortable 392 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 7: with certain levels. But most importantly, this frenzy on the 393 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 7: end continues to impose investors towards carry baskets right over, 394 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 7: we know, using the yen as one important funding currency. 395 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 7: So if that continues, that continues basically to support the 396 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 7: ivery basket trade out there. 397 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 2: Louis, thank you so much, Louis costin sitting Girl. Today's 398 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 2: front page is a daily look of the front pages 399 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 2: pumped for Memorial Day. 400 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 5: Lisa my tech I am. 401 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 8: I'm already a much checking out, all right. So yesterday 402 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 8: we told your Live Nation yeah thanks being sued by 403 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 8: the DOJ. So the Wall Street Journal has this good 404 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 8: breakdown of who is making money off of your concert tickets. 405 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 8: So it gave the example of one hundred dollars ticket, 406 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 8: which I think is really cheap for a ticket bud 407 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 8: ninety dollars goes to the artist, ten dollars goes to 408 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 8: the promoter like Live Nation, and then customers typically pay 409 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 8: fees on top of it. Right, you know, when you're done, 410 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 8: you get the fees or twenty percent or more of 411 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 8: a ticket's face value. So a ticket selling platform like 412 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 8: Ticketmaster would collect about five dollars of those fees. The 413 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 8: rest goes to the venue, and then the venue also 414 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 8: collects for things like parking, food, alcohol, spending. Live Nation 415 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 8: owns and operates the venues nationwide. And then finally the 416 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 8: merchandise you have because the artists partner with merchandisers who 417 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 8: covers the twenty five dollar cost of making the item, 418 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,159 Speaker 8: and then they split the profit, so they keep seven passing. 419 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 8: It came to the artists, you know, you see, you see, 420 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 8: and then how much the venue gets too. 421 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,920 Speaker 2: This isn't the heart of this debate. Yeah, the most 422 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 2: concerts you want to go to, you can't get tickets 423 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 2: that's sold out. 424 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: No, I mean I'm trying to get the tickets for 425 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: the Stones there MetLife on Sunday night. You know, two 426 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty bucks a ticket, Tom, I mean that's 427 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: pretty expensive. Pretty expensive. 428 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, you can wave to Pennsylvania on that. 429 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,719 Speaker 1: You're I mean brown eyed girl, you know so. I mean, 430 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 1: but seriously, I mean, like if you just look at 431 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: them trying, it's amazing how many people get rallied up. 432 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: I mean, there have been rallies in Washington against Live Nation. 433 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: I mean it's real stuff. I mean, Senators, it's become 434 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: a real kind of election talking point. 435 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 2: Also, no, Lisa, is there discussion Lisa in the articles 436 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 2: you've seen that it's really about you can't get tickets 437 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 2: because the ticket, that one hundred dollars ticket is priced 438 00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 2: too low. 439 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 5: They're more like what Damiens talk on Members of Congress. 440 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, that's too And a lot of people are asking, well, 441 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 8: why am I paying so much for this? Like where 442 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 8: is my money going? 443 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:07,360 Speaker 1: Yeah? 444 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 8: Where is where? Who's getting my dollar? That's what people 445 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 8: want to know when they demand. 446 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 2: I looked at Taylor in Paris and I just you know, 447 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,640 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, afterthought wanted to go, but both 448 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 2: both that knowing Canalty, you wanted to go. And yeah 449 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,359 Speaker 2: it was like, you know, they if we don't get 450 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 2: the golf stream, you know, we got to put the 451 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 2: dogs in the chairs in the plane. 452 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 5: It's like outrageous. 453 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 8: Next goodness, Okay, Paramount Global reaching a new multi year 454 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 8: distribution agreement with Charter Communication. So this is really big 455 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 8: for Paramount because you know, the companies and talks with 456 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 8: Skydance Media and a blackout would have really hurt those efforts. 457 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 8: But now all of Paramount's networks including CBS. It's streaming 458 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 8: services will continue on Charter Spectrum cable systems, So subscriber 459 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 8: to charterals Spectrum, they're going to continue to get those 460 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 8: paramount channels like Beet, Comedy Central, Paramount Plus with Showtime 461 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 8: on top of it. And then Charters also making some 462 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 8: services available for purchase to its Internet only customers on 463 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 8: top of it. 464 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 5: That's a local story. 465 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 2: But I'm looking at the stock charts for PA, r 466 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 2: A and Warner Brothers Discovery, and to be blunt, they've 467 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 2: had a bad ten days. 468 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 6: Yeah. 469 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 5: No, I mean, you know there's a bull market, you 470 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 5: don't know it. 471 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:17,959 Speaker 2: Looking at those stocks. 472 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 1: It's a really good point in discretionary you know. I 473 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,920 Speaker 1: just looked at the S and P. The consumer discretionary 474 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: subsector is actually now down year to date, which is 475 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: kind of interesting. 476 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:26,479 Speaker 5: Your diard. 477 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 2: If Warner Brothers loses TNT. 478 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: Well, I think they will. I think they will. So 479 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: the NBA deal for guys is going to be seven 480 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: billion dollars a year for eleven years. You want to 481 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: talk about a big pot to split up. There it is, 482 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 1: And it looks like TNT and TBS are out, so 483 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: it's going to be Amazon, it's going to be Disney. 484 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: It's going to be interesting. 485 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 8: We have to see yeah, and that's that's exactly it. 486 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 8: So it's gonna be Walt Disney, Comcast, Amazon. This was 487 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 8: actually in Lucashaw's news level town. He's the best, Yeah, 488 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 8: so he had the great insights. So this is what 489 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 8: they found that their finalized agreements with those three, they're 490 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 8: going to pay the league and average of about seven 491 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 8: billion a year over the next eleven years. Disney is 492 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 8: going to get that biggest part of the package that 493 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 8: includes the NBA finals. All three would split the other 494 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 8: playoffs and regular season. But what I like what Lucas 495 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 8: did is he said that if the NBA signs, Warner 496 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 8: Brothers can match them, but it's going to be tough 497 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 8: because Comcast is going to put out games on NBC, 498 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 8: which is a broadcast network. Warner Brothers doesn't have one 499 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 8: of those. The Comcast also involves minimum number advertising oppressions. 500 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 8: That's easy for NBC, but for Warner Brothers Turner broadcast, 501 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 8: that's a little bit tough there. So it's a lot 502 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 8: to keep up with. I mean, but Warner Brothers could 503 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 8: come back, you know, with the right to match it, 504 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 8: but they could also go for like a smaller package 505 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 8: of NBA game. 506 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 2: I miss Brent Musburger. Next, there you go. 507 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 3: In New York City. 508 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 8: You had mentioned this, Damien. Those charging stations coming to 509 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,440 Speaker 8: New York City. It's a company back by Google. It's 510 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 8: called Gravity and they want to bring they They they're 511 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 8: calling them quote unquote trees because they look they're tall, thin, slender, 512 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 8: so they're going to fit right into the landscape in 513 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 8: New York City. They're saying they're gonna be curb side 514 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 8: and they can charge your car and as little as 515 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 8: five minutes. 516 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: Wait, I thought it was going to look like a tree. 517 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 1: I didn't. I think they were going to disguise them, 518 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: because if they're just going to be metal poles, I 519 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 1: don't like that. 520 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 8: It's a metal pole, but it's as thin like that. 521 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 8: If you put it next to a tree, the trunks 522 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 8: look the same. 523 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 2: Did you say there's no large charge given Tesla or 524 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 2: whatever in five minutes? 525 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,479 Speaker 8: In as little as five minutes, one will take up 526 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 8: to thirteen minutes. The other model can take up to 527 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 8: five minutes. 528 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 5: Now they're like quick. 529 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 2: Long, they're like forty fifty minutes. 530 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 8: You have to sit sometimes for like twenty five to 531 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 8: thirty minutes. Yeah, to charge your full car, but I'll 532 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 8: give about two hundred miles. When do we see But 533 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 8: they're going through the city. They're asking the city if 534 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 8: they can bring them to the city skiing. Yes, So 535 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 8: it's going to be a process, so you might not 536 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 8: see them for some time. They are in parking garages 537 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 8: on West forty second Street. 538 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 2: There are your newspapers on this Friday at Lista Matao. 539 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, 540 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 541 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit 542 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show 543 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our 544 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. 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