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Speaker 1: And let's get to our guests. We can talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit more about this with William Warner, founder and

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Speaker 1: ce io it are Square Global. William. Pardon if you

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Speaker 1: can't talk specifically about Ali Baba, but if you can,

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Speaker 1: that's great. And also we can just talk about the

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Speaker 1: general thinking that maybe the regulators are are prepared to

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Speaker 1: soften their approach. Yeah. I mean, in my view, I

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Speaker 1: think the Chinese government is you know, under fire for

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Speaker 1: for many different aspects. Now now we are having this

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Speaker 1: mortgage issue um, and mortgage boycotts, which you know, which

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Speaker 1: the government would not want to see, especially with the

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Speaker 1: upcoming Congress meeting in October. You know, the last thing

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Speaker 1: they want is political instability. And I think you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the ways for them to attract foreign investments again,

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Speaker 1: to attract you know, even domestic investors, is by loosening

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Speaker 1: their existing regulations. Um. And and the most obvious one,

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Speaker 1: I guess is in the tech industry. We we have

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Speaker 1: seen them you know, making progress for the past six months, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, granting new gaming licenses again. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: making even d D feasible again as a company. And

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Speaker 1: and and say for Ali Baba, So I think they

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Speaker 1: are in a way moving in the right direction, but

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Speaker 1: but the the positive impact of it, I guess could

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Speaker 1: take time. And with that positive impact taking time, do

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Speaker 1: you see opportunities as we head into the latter part

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Speaker 1: of Chinese Marcism and you mentioned the two K sectors there, yes, uh,

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Speaker 1: I think yes. The key is for for investors to

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Speaker 1: gain confidence again. And and at this point, with so

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Speaker 1: much trouble brewing in China, it's it's quite difficult to

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Speaker 1: to you know, to to be able to go all

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Speaker 1: in in China, for example, right um after the election.

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Speaker 1: However in October, I think, you know, we could see

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Speaker 1: more upsite um before that. You know, we we have

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Speaker 1: so much cheadwyn in the market in the US, in

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Speaker 1: Europe and and in in China. That problem so I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you ask me when when the market

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Speaker 1: in China could could really rebund or take off, I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I would give it at least a year. William.

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Speaker 1: Do you fear at all that what's happening in the

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Speaker 1: property market could morph into a banking crisis in China? Yes,

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Speaker 1: of course that Actually, that is one of my biggest

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Speaker 1: worries right now. Um, in terms of tail risks within Asia.

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Speaker 1: I think, um, you know, with over six trillion dollar

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Speaker 1: of mortgage outstanding in in China, UM, with realiztate making

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Speaker 1: a t the GDP in China, it's you know, we

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Speaker 1: we could really get into a Leahman brother critics again, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is not something that you can just

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Speaker 1: easily contain as a country to with with the size

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Speaker 1: of of of notional outstanding. So the key thing for

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Speaker 1: investors this week, of course the Fed. We are expecting

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Speaker 1: an aggressive hike there. What happens after that though in

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Speaker 1: their forward guidence? And how does that affect market sentiment

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Speaker 1: when we've got these recession concerns. Well, I think the

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the FAT has been behind the

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Speaker 1: curve since last year. UM, so right now we we

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Speaker 1: are barely on the catch up face in in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we have not really seen inflation number peeking.

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Speaker 1: We we actually still see it rising every single time

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Speaker 1: we get inflation data. So I think, um, there is

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Speaker 1: a chance that the FAT will have to hike even

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Speaker 1: bigger UM or even faster UM that I think could

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Speaker 1: could really make the market. Jader, I think that the

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Speaker 1: equity market could stay weak um for quite an extended

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Speaker 1: period of time, are obvious. Yeah, go ahead, finish your thought.

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Speaker 1: Oh sorry, yeah, I think you are still you know,

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Speaker 1: scowring to find the bottom. But but I think we

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Speaker 1: we we are not there yet. So it feels too

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Speaker 1: many now like this is just yet again a bear

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Speaker 1: market rally. One of the one of the prevailing views,

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Speaker 1: I suppose for much of of this month where we've

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Speaker 1: had pretty nice rallies, was that well, the earnings were

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Speaker 1: holding up pretty well. But now we've had a number

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Speaker 1: of companies come out and warn and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: now it feels like, yeah, not only is the FED aggressive,

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Speaker 1: but the earnings are going to be bad. You look

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Speaker 1: at it that way, Yes, I think so. I think

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Speaker 1: the earnings impact will only come a bit later. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't trends relate so quickly. Um, so that that

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Speaker 1: that's my biggest worry is that, you know, the next

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Speaker 1: six months, one year, that's when you start to see

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Speaker 1: the earnings impact hitting the market. Um. We are also

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Speaker 1: seeing already employment slowing down, um, you know, especially in

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Speaker 1: the in the banking sector. So you know that that's

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Speaker 1: usually uh quite a quick leading indicator too. I know

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Speaker 1: you focused as well, you're in Tokyo and you're looking

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Speaker 1: quite closely at the Japanese market. We're seeing more than

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Speaker 1: fifty three of stocks in the Broader Topics Index now

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Speaker 1: trading above their two day moving average. Do you see

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Speaker 1: more kind of bullish signs for Japanese equities, particularly for

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Speaker 1: foreign investors. Yes, I think Japanese equities uh in in

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Speaker 1: in particular is less um less hit than other areas,

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Speaker 1: more because the inflation is in a way controllable here.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, it's also very very weak historically on a

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Speaker 1: historical level, So I think that's providing some support to

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Speaker 1: the Japanese aquities, But I would not really call it

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Speaker 1: an outright uh bull signal. It's it's been a view

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Speaker 1: among some investors that you can use Japan as kind

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Speaker 1: of a warrant on the global economy and that there's

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Speaker 1: so many companies that that Japan has that produced robotics

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Speaker 1: and machinery that it plays into a lot of growth

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Speaker 1: in in some of these higher tech economies. But but

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Speaker 1: it feels like the global economy is slowing. So will

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Speaker 1: that be a kind of a challenge for Tokyo equities? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I think I think japan equity you know we we

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Speaker 1: we we barely see it. Uh, almost every in a

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Speaker 1: in a bowl market faces it's usually just following the

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Speaker 1: other markets. UM. I think similar for this time around.

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Speaker 1: If if the global market is staying weak, Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: Japanese economy is I guess quite quite dependent, especially the

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Speaker 1: stock market with the other regions. So I think that

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Speaker 1: will provide some sort of cap or you know, it

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Speaker 1: would it would make the stock market range in Japan too.

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Speaker 1: And we've also seen the Russian energy giant gas Proms

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Speaker 1: saying it will further reduce natural gas flows through that

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Speaker 1: major North stream pipeline. What are your views on commodity

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Speaker 1: process staying elevated. Yes, so commodity process is another thing

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Speaker 1: that that I'm quite worried about. I think this whole

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Speaker 1: um you know, impact from the war which is causing

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Speaker 1: a big issue in in Europe in terms of energy supply.

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Speaker 1: You know, if it does fire out of control, it

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Speaker 1: will trickle all the way down to you know, company

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Speaker 1: earnings to um even supplies to the people in within Europe. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: all right, William, thank you for your time. William Warner

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Speaker 1: is founder and ce IO at our Squared Global. On

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Speaker 1: the line from Tokyo for us here on Bloomberg deybreacage

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Speaker 1: you