1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,720
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal.

2
00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:04,640
Speaker 2: Here, Independent media just played a truly massive role in

3
00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:07,480
Speaker 2: this election, and we are so excited about what that

4
00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 2: means for the future of this show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,680
Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

11
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,600
Speaker 3: dot com.

15
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,320
Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

16
00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 3: We have an amazing show for everybody today.

17
00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,480
Speaker 2: What do we have, Crystal, another wild morning. We've got

18
00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,040
Speaker 2: a Trump truth to reckon with. He says, he's very

19
00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 2: much indicating he'll just walk away from Iran, leaving the

20
00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,040
Speaker 2: straight of hor moves closed. He tells the world to

21
00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,680
Speaker 2: go get their own oil, that he's done with it.

22
00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:52,559
Speaker 4: So I don't even know what.

23
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,280
Speaker 2: To begin with this, so go we'll get into that. Also,

24
00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,440
Speaker 2: it maybe quite related to these things. Some of the

25
00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,000
Speaker 2: worst poll numbers, if not the worst poll numbers of

26
00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:05,680
Speaker 2: either terms of his presidency. So there's a lot going on.

27
00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,399
Speaker 2: There's some new analysis too of just how dire things

28
00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,960
Speaker 2: may be for him and where we are heading. National

29
00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:15,840
Speaker 2: average for gas is officially over four dollars a gallon.

30
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:18,720
Speaker 2: Our oil analyst is going to join us to talk

31
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,760
Speaker 2: about the level of disruption and what would happen even

32
00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,720
Speaker 2: if Trump does unilaterally taco now what that will mean

33
00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:30,960
Speaker 2: for the future. Meanwhile, global ramifications of that oil blockade

34
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,640
Speaker 2: are spreading rapidly, so we'll take a look at that.

35
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,959
Speaker 2: Israel yesterday passed a death penalty bill that is only

36
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 2: for Palestinians in another new disgusting low. We also are

37
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,399
Speaker 2: going to pick up the story we tried to do

38
00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 2: yesterday we just couldn't put it in the show about

39
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,520
Speaker 2: the IDF assaulting a CNN photojournalist and the fallout from that.

40
00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,400
Speaker 2: And then had to take a look at Trump's ballroom.

41
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:59,520
Speaker 2: Apparently it's coming with a new nuclear bunker. Yeah, great timing, really.

42
00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:04,120
Speaker 3: Time the tinfoil back on. It was on yesterday, Go home,

43
00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:05,960
Speaker 3: But like, maybe we put it back. Maybe all those

44
00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:07,720
Speaker 3: people who have come up to me in the last

45
00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,040
Speaker 3: several months to tell me that there's a data data

46
00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:11,160
Speaker 3: center under the ballroom.

47
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:12,480
Speaker 4: Maybe they were on something.

48
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 3: Maybe they were right, says the stuff out loud, all right,

49
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,560
Speaker 3: before we get to that. Thank you everybody's been supporting

50
00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 3: the show Breakingpoints dot com. We did our ama yesterday

51
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,960
Speaker 3: which was very enjoyable. You can of course have acts

52
00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,840
Speaker 3: to that access to that if you want to sign

53
00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 3: up for our premium program. Otherwise, please hit subscribe to

54
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 3: our YouTube channel. I believe we are now at one

55
00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:34,880
Speaker 3: point nine eight million, just a mere twenty thousand YouTube

56
00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,280
Speaker 3: subscribers to go to hit the coveted two million mark.

57
00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,480
Speaker 3: We get no plaque. It's just bragging rags, but it

58
00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,200
Speaker 3: is of course thanks to all of you. And if

59
00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,079
Speaker 3: you are listening to the podcast, please go ahead and

60
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 3: share an episode with a friend.

61
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:47,560
Speaker 1: It really helps other people find the show.

62
00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,640
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and start then with the unilateral potential

63
00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,640
Speaker 3: Trump Taco and let's put this up here on the screen,

64
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:55,440
Speaker 3: literally breaking as of this morning.

65
00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:56,400
Speaker 1: Let me go ahead and read it.

66
00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,840
Speaker 3: All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because

67
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,480
Speaker 3: of the strange were moves, like the United Kingdom which

68
00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,160
Speaker 3: refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran. I

69
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,080
Speaker 3: have a suggestion for you. Number one, buy from the US.

70
00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,560
Speaker 3: We have plenty. Number two, build up some delayed courage.

71
00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,240
Speaker 3: Go to the Strait and just take it. You'll have

72
00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,240
Speaker 3: to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA

73
00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,400
Speaker 3: won't be there to help you anymore, just like you

74
00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,040
Speaker 3: weren't there for US. Iran has been essentially decimated. The

75
00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,520
Speaker 3: hard part is gone. Go get your own oil. This

76
00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,239
Speaker 3: fits very much with a late breaking story last night.

77
00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,240
Speaker 3: Let's go and put the Wall Street Journal up there

78
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,040
Speaker 3: on the screen. Alex Ward over at the Journal, I

79
00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 3: highly recommend the follow by the way, excellent reporter. He

80
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,360
Speaker 3: was also the person who broke the roe versus Wade

81
00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,720
Speaker 3: story back in the day, so I highly recommend. I've

82
00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 3: known him for a long time, he says. Trump tells

83
00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,160
Speaker 3: aids he's willing to end war without reopening horror moves.

84
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,120
Speaker 3: So if you put these two things together, it does

85
00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,960
Speaker 3: indicate that at the current moment, that is what Trump

86
00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,600
Speaker 3: wants us to think or is potentially doing. So this

87
00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,920
Speaker 3: is at least what Donald Trump is telegraphing now publicly

88
00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,480
Speaker 3: and or privately behind the scenes. Everybody do in mind

89
00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 3: that all of this could be an elaborate psyop as

90
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,760
Speaker 3: we have seen now multiple times from the Trump administration,

91
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,800
Speaker 3: potentially trying to signal that the war is over. Well

92
00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:10,960
Speaker 3: if we continue to follow all of the ground troops

93
00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:12,640
Speaker 3: in the region. So I no way want to say

94
00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,840
Speaker 3: that this is the end, but let's pretend that it is.

95
00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,839
Speaker 3: Let's pretend that it's Taco Tuesday. And of course stock

96
00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,080
Speaker 3: futures are surging right now as you and I.

97
00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,160
Speaker 1: Speak over this. Should they really be surging?

98
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,320
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a genuine Suez moment for the

99
00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:25,960
Speaker 3: United States.

100
00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:26,680
Speaker 1: Let's think about this.

101
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,880
Speaker 3: The US military went into this campaign unilaterally with Israel,

102
00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:35,000
Speaker 3: with a singular objective, unconditional surrender, the decapitation of the

103
00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:39,160
Speaker 3: Iranian regime, a replacement of that regime, a reopening, recontrol

104
00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,320
Speaker 3: of the Straits of Hormuse. At one point we floated

105
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,600
Speaker 3: a reinsurance scheme backed by the United States and the

106
00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,239
Speaker 3: United States Navy, sailing freely through the strait. Now, after

107
00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,040
Speaker 3: over a month, there is now an effective declaration. Trump says, well,

108
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,920
Speaker 3: we have actually changed the regime because we killed the

109
00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:55,720
Speaker 3: original Ayatola.

110
00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:57,560
Speaker 1: Now we have a new Iatola whose.

111
00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,080
Speaker 3: Father was murdered and his brother and his wif I

112
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,119
Speaker 3: mean it can't even go through the list of family members.

113
00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,600
Speaker 3: The guy who had the fatwa against nuclear weapons, he's

114
00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,279
Speaker 3: gone the hardline. IRGC is all in control. The Straits

115
00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,960
Speaker 3: of Hormuz is under Iranian control. Who is allowing selectively

116
00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,920
Speaker 3: certain ships that were either Pakistani or Chinese or any

117
00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:17,839
Speaker 3: country which is willing to make a deal with them.

118
00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,800
Speaker 3: They passed a piece of legislation yesterday in their parliament

119
00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,880
Speaker 3: saying that they have officially approved the toll program, almost

120
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 3: like the Egyptians in the control of the Suez crisis.

121
00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,120
Speaker 3: And then Trump comes in and he says that we

122
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,080
Speaker 3: are basically will be done because you didn't join us. So,

123
00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,600
Speaker 3: first of all, was a war of choice. It's not

124
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,920
Speaker 3: like we needed anybody. Allegedly, we were told we could

125
00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:38,920
Speaker 3: do this all by ourselves. We didn't necessarily need anyone

126
00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,880
Speaker 3: to come in. We blew up the global economy quite literally.

127
00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,080
Speaker 3: We're going to tell everybody just in the one month

128
00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,880
Speaker 3: of what it looks like Asia, eighty percent of oil

129
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,640
Speaker 3: through the Straits of Hormus goes to Asia, only fifty

130
00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,240
Speaker 3: percent goes to China. The rest of them are extremely

131
00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,800
Speaker 3: critical US Allies LNG, which is heavily reliant europe Is

132
00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,120
Speaker 3: after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oh well, sorry, seventy

133
00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:05,560
Speaker 3: percent of Qatar's ros Lafon gasp, that's gone just evaporated

134
00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,360
Speaker 3: for the next four to five years. Good luck paying

135
00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,679
Speaker 3: for it though, by the way, So what this means

136
00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,560
Speaker 3: is that the US came in here, didn't even military

137
00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:17,280
Speaker 3: accomplish its objectives. Basically got all of our bases like

138
00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:18,640
Speaker 3: destroyed and or hit.

139
00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:20,560
Speaker 1: We lost all these strategic aircraft.

140
00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 3: We humiliated ourselves really in terms of what people expected

141
00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:25,760
Speaker 3: the United States to be able to do. Now, we

142
00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,200
Speaker 3: could finish the job with ground troops, we decided we

143
00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,200
Speaker 3: don't want to do that, and we tell the Europeans

144
00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 3: and the Asians, go get your own oil. So what's

145
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,200
Speaker 3: more likely, Crystal, that the UK and the EU and

146
00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 3: Japan and South Korea are going to form a coalition

147
00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,719
Speaker 3: of the unwilling and go and militarily take the Straits

148
00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,240
Speaker 3: of horror moves, or Tehran is going to be like

149
00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,600
Speaker 3: pay up, let's go, and by the way, no more dollars.

150
00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,800
Speaker 3: You're going to denominate it and won any US flagship.

151
00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,520
Speaker 3: You're never coming through here. If you're sailing to Israel,

152
00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,440
Speaker 3: you're not coming through here either. And this is the

153
00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,239
Speaker 3: new new sheriff in town in the Straits of Horror moves.

154
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 3: What's that sound like to you? That sounds like a

155
00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:05,279
Speaker 3: strategic victory right now. So far for the Iranian Empire

156
00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,720
Speaker 3: they get two or the Iranian regime potentially used to

157
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,400
Speaker 3: be an empart. So we've got the Iranian regime which

158
00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 3: is now re empowered, massively rich already as a result

159
00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,800
Speaker 3: of the war and spiking oil prices, control over the

160
00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,280
Speaker 3: Straits of hor moves. They stood up and survived over

161
00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:24,280
Speaker 3: the big bad American military and Israel. I mean, this

162
00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,480
Speaker 3: is a strategic nightmare, and yet somehow it is still

163
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 3: the preferable outcome. Yes, And that's that's what's so insane about, Yeah,

164
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,640
Speaker 3: is we were really screwed either way, which is why

165
00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,920
Speaker 3: we never should have been in this war. I'm just

166
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,000
Speaker 3: like thinking through all of the global ramifications and I'm like,

167
00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 3: I cannot believe that we just blew up the global

168
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,480
Speaker 3: empire and then are the global economy and told all

169
00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,360
Speaker 3: of these I mean, if you're the Gulf, I was

170
00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 3: telling you that before.

171
00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 1: What do you do?

172
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,520
Speaker 3: Now Iran has been firing all ship Now you got

173
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:50,160
Speaker 3: to pay the piper.

174
00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 4: Yes, Oh, why I was getting messed up. Just yesterday, Dubai.

175
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:54,840
Speaker 3: They got more missiles yesterday in the first week of

176
00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 3: the war. Do you just pay it?

177
00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:57,680
Speaker 1: I guess.

178
00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,520
Speaker 3: I mean, and you bought all these billions of all

179
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,920
Speaker 3: these troops are here, and we are stopping.

180
00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 2: If you're wanting to buy your Abu Dhabi, like your

181
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,320
Speaker 2: whole brand is screwed.

182
00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,320
Speaker 4: It's over. I mean, it's okay.

183
00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,800
Speaker 2: So again, very possible that this is just a siop

184
00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 2: and some other thing is in the works.

185
00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 1: We'll put that.

186
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,640
Speaker 2: But I do, actually, I actually do believe that Trump

187
00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:21,800
Speaker 2: would really like to taco.

188
00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,560
Speaker 4: That he all the reporting.

189
00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,000
Speaker 2: About he's trying to find an off ramp blubble, that

190
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,160
Speaker 2: he's bored. I mean, I think that is all true.

191
00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,280
Speaker 2: And you see, the bond markets are a problem for him,

192
00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,720
Speaker 2: the oil markets are a problem, the stock market's problem for him.

193
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,520
Speaker 2: His poll numbers are tanking. He's looking at this and

194
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,360
Speaker 2: going like, all right, we need to wrap this up.

195
00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,560
Speaker 2: So I do give it some credence that this is

196
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,240
Speaker 2: possible that he's like, all right, we're just going to

197
00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:41,760
Speaker 2: walk away.

198
00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,360
Speaker 4: So let's be really totally clear.

199
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,160
Speaker 2: If he walks away and leaves the straight up hor

200
00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,719
Speaker 2: moves in Iranian hands for them to do with as

201
00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,960
Speaker 2: they wish. It's a surrender. I mean it is a surrender,

202
00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:55,280
Speaker 2: the ultimate surrender.

203
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, because the roll of the US Navy, why do

204
00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,240
Speaker 3: you and I pay the tax as we pay, is

205
00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:05,240
Speaker 3: to guarantee commerce on the high seat. That is literally

206
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,960
Speaker 3: the point that's of the empire. That's why Japan and

207
00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,560
Speaker 3: South Korea and all these other countries are like, okay,

208
00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 3: let's do all this in exchange. You guarantee our security

209
00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,760
Speaker 3: and our ability not to be Chinese vassals. I mean,

210
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:18,199
Speaker 3: what are we doing here now?

211
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,680
Speaker 2: So we came in Okay, let's just remember. Let's rewind

212
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 2: back when you know, Trump announces in his baseball cap

213
00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,160
Speaker 2: with Auntie on before we going to a party of

214
00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,679
Speaker 2: mar A Lago, announces that he started this war. Okay,

215
00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,920
Speaker 2: he's calling on the Rannie and people to rise up, right,

216
00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 2: so regime change, like not the fake kind that he's claiming,

217
00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,000
Speaker 2: but the real like, oh, we're going to have somebody

218
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:40,599
Speaker 2: who's you know, a puppet and a mena boll to

219
00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,080
Speaker 2: our interest. Blah blah blah. That's what the original goal was.

220
00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 2: That and to you know, destroy or make render impossible,

221
00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:49,679
Speaker 2: or do some deal with them to make sure that

222
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,200
Speaker 2: they're never going to pursue a nuclear weapon. Okay, those

223
00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,720
Speaker 2: things are off the table. Then the war became about

224
00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 2: reopening the thing that the war closed, the Strait of Hormuz.

225
00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,520
Speaker 2: Now there's that is also off the table. And this

226
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,600
Speaker 2: is why you could never get a straight answer out

227
00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,280
Speaker 2: of them after the initial days of the war of

228
00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:11,000
Speaker 2: what the objectives actually are. So now what are we

229
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:12,959
Speaker 2: going to I mean Trump will claim mission a combo.

230
00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,840
Speaker 2: We decimated them and we set them back. No, what

231
00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 2: you did is you strengthen them. There's zero doubt about it. Yes,

232
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:20,760
Speaker 2: they're you know this and that got hit and there

233
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:22,920
Speaker 2: were you know, tons of civilians. It was horrible, right,

234
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,880
Speaker 2: there's no doubt that there were losses on the Iranian side.

235
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:28,640
Speaker 4: But if they come out.

236
00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,319
Speaker 2: Of this with control over the Strait of Hormuz, this

237
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,400
Speaker 2: is like an ability for them to play in the

238
00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,840
Speaker 2: world and have the sort of sanctioned power that we do. Right,

239
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,080
Speaker 2: if some other country is messing with them, if some

240
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 2: countries you know, supporting a genocide and Goza or whatever,

241
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,719
Speaker 2: they can wield this now as a weapon they can

242
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:53,079
Speaker 2: throw their weight around. Not to mention, Okay, they still

243
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,520
Speaker 2: by all accounts, still have all of the you know,

244
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,720
Speaker 2: highly imburseranium and nuclear material and know how do you

245
00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 2: think that they may pursue a nuclear weapon now to

246
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,720
Speaker 2: make sure they don't get messed with again? I certainly

247
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,520
Speaker 2: would if I was them. So I mean, what are

248
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,800
Speaker 2: we like? So okay, so let's play the sound. I'm

249
00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:11,760
Speaker 2: just trying to think of, like what all the implications are.

250
00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,920
Speaker 2: So you're right, the Arabs, like Golf Arab States totally fucked,

251
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,040
Speaker 2: totally screwed, Like what are they going to do?

252
00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,680
Speaker 3: Okay, all these bases the Iranians listen, cot me Ron,

253
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,720
Speaker 3: I've got you by the balls, and you're Saudi Arabia

254
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:27,280
Speaker 3: and you're you a every US troop on the ground

255
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:27,960
Speaker 3: gotta go.

256
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:28,400
Speaker 1: Yeah.

257
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:30,480
Speaker 3: Now what I mean Trump says he doesn't want to win.

258
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:32,720
Speaker 4: What they right? And this is what they said.

259
00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,200
Speaker 2: Their original goal was, we want all US troops out

260
00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,480
Speaker 2: of the region. We want these bases closed. And we

261
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,240
Speaker 2: all look at that and we're like that's insane. Now

262
00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,800
Speaker 2: It's like is it is it insane? Is thereelsund here floating?

263
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:43,000
Speaker 4: Hey?

264
00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,800
Speaker 2: We want the US basis on our soil, which would

265
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,240
Speaker 2: be a major I mean, that's a major change in

266
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,200
Speaker 2: terms of their orientation. Our orientation basically means like the

267
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,120
Speaker 2: merging of our states completely. That's a whole other can

268
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,880
Speaker 2: of worms, but that could be where we're heading. If

269
00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,600
Speaker 2: these goldfab states are like, you know what, this is

270
00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,120
Speaker 2: not going to work for us, Like you made us

271
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,040
Speaker 2: a target and then you screwed everything up for us

272
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,040
Speaker 2: and then you cut and run. Okay, So that's the

273
00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:09,000
Speaker 2: Gulf Arab states for the israelis Iran is not in chaos.

274
00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:10,319
Speaker 4: They did not collapse the state.

275
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,480
Speaker 2: They strengthened the logic of pursuing you know, longer range

276
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,520
Speaker 2: ballistic missiles and a nuclear weapon. Do you think the

277
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,680
Speaker 2: Israelis are just gonna sit back and say that's cool,

278
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:20,760
Speaker 2: We're gonna let that happen.

279
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,960
Speaker 4: No, they're not. You're still gonna have the same.

280
00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,800
Speaker 2: Logic on the Israeli side from Netnyahu and his whole crew,

281
00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,960
Speaker 2: and they're going to continue to be trying to, you know,

282
00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,160
Speaker 2: drag us back in the same sort of thing that

283
00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,640
Speaker 2: played out here where reportedly Israel Is going to strike

284
00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 2: around anyway. And so our leaders were like, well, I

285
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,160
Speaker 2: guess we're gonna do it too. Are we just gonna

286
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,440
Speaker 2: let them get hit by Iranian missiles like that? So

287
00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,520
Speaker 2: that's you know, a whole situation, I mean, the whole

288
00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,280
Speaker 2: thing is. And then of course, in terms of the

289
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,640
Speaker 2: rest of the world, they look at us, this global superpower,

290
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,760
Speaker 2: allegedly nuclear armed, global superpower, and we were like opening

291
00:12:57,760 --> 00:12:59,280
Speaker 2: the strait of more moves. It's going to be too

292
00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 2: militarily to cole feyo. You think they're gonna go and

293
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,160
Speaker 2: and of course not, of course not. They're gonna look

294
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,400
Speaker 2: at this and go Okay, China, okay. I ron like

295
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 2: trying to make some deals. This is a new world order,

296
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,320
Speaker 2: I mean, not truly is what we're looking at here.

297
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,360
Speaker 2: And I know that may sound really grandiose, but this

298
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,800
Speaker 2: level of humiliating defeat at the hands of you know,

299
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,960
Speaker 2: I mean, Iran is a large country. It's sort of

300
00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,040
Speaker 2: like a middle income country. They have clearly military power.

301
00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 4: But really they just.

302
00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,360
Speaker 2: Out thought us, They outplanned us, they outthought us. They

303
00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 2: were much smarter, much more strategic. And Trump came barreling

304
00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,720
Speaker 2: in thinking that he could do a few day excursion

305
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,000
Speaker 2: and get some you know, w before his meeting with

306
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,520
Speaker 2: China and then it be all good and he's an

307
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 2: idiot and he's a fool, and they revealed it.

308
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 3: This is why part of me is like, why is

309
00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,480
Speaker 3: that we shouldn't be too declarative? Is because all of

310
00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:54,160
Speaker 3: this is about to become real obvious to NATO, to Japan,

311
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,000
Speaker 3: to South Korea, to the Gulf Saudi. I mean, yea,

312
00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,080
Speaker 3: MBS and MBZ are gonna be on the phone today

313
00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,840
Speaker 3: right being like listen, man, this is a this is

314
00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,040
Speaker 3: you can't you can't let leave us hanging like this.

315
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,160
Speaker 3: And that's why every single report out of the golf

316
00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,080
Speaker 3: is they're like, finish the job, finish the job. We

317
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,760
Speaker 3: can't live this way. So now what So when Trump

318
00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 3: tells the UK and Japan and South Korea to go

319
00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:17,360
Speaker 3: get your own oil, they're like, oh, we'll get it

320
00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,600
Speaker 3: all right, but we're gonna pay the Iranian hostage toll

321
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 3: whatever they want will pay.

322
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:22,080
Speaker 4: And denominated in Chinese.

323
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,480
Speaker 3: And what are they going to say, I mean, what's

324
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 3: America going to say? They're going to be like, oh, well,

325
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,600
Speaker 3: you can't do that because X, Y and Z. And

326
00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,120
Speaker 3: now this is why this is like empire ending in

327
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,640
Speaker 3: a way. Is the Japanese are going to be like, okay,

328
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 3: our security guaranteur or ninety percent of our oil?

329
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:38,960
Speaker 1: What do we do?

330
00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 3: What choice would you make? I mean, this is when

331
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,240
Speaker 3: your your actual back is up against them.

332
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,040
Speaker 2: I mean Pakistan is already they're dead making deals with them,

333
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:47,440
Speaker 2: right because they are so screwed.

334
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 3: One hundred percent of Pakistani LNG comes from Qatar. They

335
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,160
Speaker 3: don't have a choice, right. This is it's it's literally

336
00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 3: existential Bangladesh, all of the India. I mean already you've

337
00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 3: watched what happens with Russia. I mean yeah, by the way,

338
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,240
Speaker 3: even Russia in terms of their strength that's come out

339
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 3: of this war, Like I don't accept that Russia is

340
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,920
Speaker 3: an enemy of the United States. You could say adversary

341
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 3: largely as a result of our own creation. But whatever,

342
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,920
Speaker 3: it has now proven its ability. And this is.

343
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:18,680
Speaker 2: We're strengthening this Iran China Russia alliance and that.

344
00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,320
Speaker 1: Not so right, then let's think about China.

345
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 3: So China is going to come in and say we

346
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 3: have to denominate all of the current all of the

347
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,160
Speaker 3: exchanges have to be denominated in one fifty percent of

348
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 3: our oil comes through the Strait, so they will make

349
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,040
Speaker 3: a deal where they massively enriched Tehran. They could create

350
00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 3: they've already created the parallel banking system to get around

351
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 3: US sanctions. They could create an entire exchange. I mean,

352
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,480
Speaker 3: this is the backbone of America of what we really

353
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 3: are is not just the strength of the dollar, but

354
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 3: all of the power of the swift sanctions and our

355
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 3: ability to compel commerce across the globe because of the

356
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,600
Speaker 3: strength of our consumer economy. And that's part of why

357
00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:59,320
Speaker 3: I go. He may want this today, but soon their

358
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,840
Speaker 3: phone is going to ring, and that's part of the reason.

359
00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:03,760
Speaker 3: With those troops in the region, he might just have

360
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 3: to use them. He might say, you know what, what

361
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 3: we're all talking about here is so unacceptable that we

362
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:09,840
Speaker 3: actually do have to do some sort of not we

363
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 3: don't have to, but they will want to do well

364
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 3: because ground invasion, because you just can't. You cannot have

365
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:15,680
Speaker 3: this well.

366
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,960
Speaker 1: And you are all of these critical US allies, and you.

367
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 2: Could end up with a scenario where we, you know,

368
00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 2: effectively surrender and then Israel and Iran are still warring

369
00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,600
Speaker 2: and we're right back in. I mean, that's another possibility

370
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 2: here is you know, after the Twelve Day War, something

371
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 2: we warned about and many others who were opposed to

372
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,360
Speaker 2: go into war with Iran to begin with, that this

373
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 2: is not over. Like, yes, Trump is declaring mission accomplished.

374
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 2: And it was much you know, cleaner way to wrap

375
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,520
Speaker 2: it in a bow than anything that he thought of

376
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 2: for this new phase of the Iran war. But what

377
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 2: we said is you have not fundamentally changed the logic

378
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 2: coming from the Israelis, and the way that Trump is,

379
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 2: you know, very susceptible to be lord into. And again

380
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 2: I hate using this language because obviously it's on him,

381
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 2: but clearly the Israelis were pushing for this right and

382
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,119
Speaker 2: we knew that after the Twelve Day War the fundamental

383
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 2: logic was not going to change, which is why I

384
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 2: don't think any of us were surprised when we ended

385
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 2: up back. Horrified, yes, surprised, no. And so if he

386
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,160
Speaker 2: does walk away now you still have a situation.

387
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:23,400
Speaker 4: Not only has the logic not.

388
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 2: Changed, the logic has gotten worse for the Israelis. Are

389
00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:31,360
Speaker 2: stronger for the Israelis in terms of continuing to pursue

390
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,239
Speaker 2: this war because you've got you know, more of an

391
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 2: impetus to actually pursue a nuclear weapon.

392
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:38,920
Speaker 4: You've got a.

393
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,400
Speaker 2: Harder line regime, and now you've handed them this extraordinary power. Now,

394
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,520
Speaker 2: I will say, the Israelis you're talking about, oh well,

395
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,120
Speaker 2: we'll create a pipeline. You know that bypasses that that

396
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 2: takes a lot of fucking time.

397
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 1: I mean, if you wiped out with the drone right exactly.

398
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, such a great point.

399
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 2: But even if you give that credence, I mean, the

400
00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 2: time alone, and so in the next decade, we're just

401
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 2: gonna deal with that. I mean, you'd be better off

402
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,000
Speaker 2: just going a whole hog on like nuclear and renewable energy,

403
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 2: versus thinking that some pipeline is going to save you.

404
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 2: At this point, not to mention, I mean, Israeli society

405
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 2: has its own problems.

406
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 4: And I don't know.

407
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 2: I I agree with you that I do believe if

408
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 2: I had to say, I think Trump does. He wants

409
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,479
Speaker 2: to be done with this. He's trying to find an

410
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 2: off ramp. There's a lot of reporting in that regard.

411
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 2: He's been floating various things, trying to, you know, trying

412
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 2: to basically like will a deal into being, project some

413
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 2: sort of strength, pretend like these ships that are passing

414
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,919
Speaker 2: through the Straight of Hord moves because other countries are

415
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,120
Speaker 2: making deals with iron like this is some gift to him.

416
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: He's trying to figure something out, but he has really

417
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 2: this is Robert Pate. He is in an escalation trap.

418
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 2: It is a trap. And if he walks away now,

419
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 2: the repercussions may be such that he just can't stomach it,

420
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 2: and the you know, the countries surrounding us, that our

421
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: allies also can't stomach it, and the business world can't

422
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 2: stomach it. And so there's going to be tremendous pressure

423
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 2: on him to continue this thing and try to I

424
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 2: don't know, I mean. And that's the other thing is,

425
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 2: let's say he could he okay, you know he hears

426
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:13,360
Speaker 2: from everybody. He's like, all right, I guess I gotta

427
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: keep going with that thing, with this thing.

428
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 4: What does that mean?

429
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 2: Because the seizing of the nuclear material is a fool's

430
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 2: errand and insane. The seizing of the islands just meshes

431
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 2: you further, whether it's carg Island or these UAEI or

432
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 2: whatever like that just meshes you further. That's no solution.

433
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 2: The only solution is like a full scale ground invasion.

434
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: Even then it's not really a solution. But this is

435
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 2: the corner that he's backed himself into. And it is

436
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 2: a disaster. I mean, it's disaster for the world. I

437
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 2: mean we're like, we're going to suffer here in the US,

438
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 2: but people around the world. We're going to talk about

439
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,479
Speaker 2: this later, like you know, developing countries around the world.

440
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 2: The level people are going to starve to death, Like

441
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,919
Speaker 2: there's gonna be places where you just can't buy fuel.

442
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 2: The level of demand destruction that would be required is

443
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: just you know, shocking.

444
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 3: It might not starve now because of the taco, but

445
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 3: it's one of those where, look, we may have an

446
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 3: end to the actual crisis, but this is a full

447
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 3: blown like this is the Pandora's box. I mean, this

448
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 3: is why you shouldn't get into any of this in

449
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 3: the first place. We have a lot of elements here.

450
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 3: I'll skip most of them. But let's just make sure

451
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 3: again that we set the table that there's still a

452
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 3: war going on with Iran. Let's put a two up

453
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 3: here on the screen just to show all of you.

454
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,119
Speaker 3: This is video that came out just yesterday. This is,

455
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 3: by the way, what makes me very skeptical that this

456
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 3: unilateral taco might happen. So this was a massive air

457
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 3: strike bunker busting bombs dropped by the United States just

458
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 3: yesterday on an Iranian AMMO depot which was in Isfahan,

459
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 3: which is near of course, all those nuclear facilities in Iran.

460
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 3: Now here's the thing. Originally there was some cope and hope,

461
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 3: honestly that there would They were like, oh, we finally

462
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 3: hit the missile city. The Pentagon even confirmed this is

463
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: an ammunition dump with artillery and other things. And that

464
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,679
Speaker 3: is what made me think, Look, you can strike an

465
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: AMMO dump with bunker buster bombs, not the missile city.

466
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 3: Now you probably would if you could, but why would

467
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: you do that, especially in the area where you have

468
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 3: these nuclear facilities and some sort of potential nuclear operation

469
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,439
Speaker 3: was going to happen, So keep your eyes open. You know,

470
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 3: the unilateral TACO could also still happen even after some

471
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 3: sort of potential nuclear operation that's happening there.

472
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 2: The other ground, the other reading of this, so one

473
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: reading of it is that yeah, this is you know,

474
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: Isfahan is where they think a lot of the nuclear

475
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: material is at this point, and so you could be

476
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 2: trying to you know, degrade their capabilities there for some

477
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 2: eventual you know, commandos coming in and trying to seize

478
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 2: the nuclears heire all that stuff. Okay, that's one possibility.

479
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: The other possibility is Trump shared this untrue social which

480
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 2: makes it more noteworthy because clearly wanted.

481
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 4: To highlight like, oh, look at this big explosion. You know.

482
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 2: The other possibility is this is just him trying to

483
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: show like, you know, oh, look at this grand display

484
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: of how much we've done, the mated them, etc. Because

485
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 2: it was a large explosion. So I don't know, but

486
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 2: I think either of those interpretations.

487
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: Take it for what you will.

488
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 3: You also, look, now we have this truth the taco stuff.

489
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 3: It's everywhere. Let's put a three. Let's go ahead and

490
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 3: play it. This was Caroline Levitt telling everyone just yesterday. Well,

491
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 3: the President said four to six weeks. We're on day thirty,

492
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 3: so we're on track. Let's take a listen. President Trump

493
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 3: findicially said about four weeks. Secretary of State review on

494
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 3: Friday Befoort we said it might be another to to four.

495
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: Is to to four the current full part that the

496
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 1: administration is thinking.

497
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 4: With respect to the timeline.

498
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 5: Again, the President, Commander in chief the Pentagon has always

499
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 5: stated four to six weeks estimated timeline for Operation Epic Fury.

500
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 4: We're on day thirty today, So.

501
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 5: Again you do the math on how much longer the

502
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 5: Pentagon needs to fully achieve the objectives of Operation Epic Fury,

503
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 5: which I will reiterate.

504
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 3: So there, she says, laying out the timeline. Secretary Headset

505
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 3: is briefing literally right as we're all talking here. I

506
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 3: haven't seen anything exactly noteworthy, but he has continued to

507
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 3: say Iran should try to make a deal because we're decimating.

508
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: We are the people that are making sure, he said,

509
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 3: we are like you know, bringing them to the table,

510
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 3: negotiating them with bomb So you could see that the

511
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 3: messaging has shifted dramatically.

512
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 1: We also should go to a seven.

513
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 4: Now.

514
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 3: This again was a little bit of a preview of

515
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: the current truth social this morning. Here is Secretary of

516
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: State Marco Rubio an interview with Al Jazeera where he

517
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 3: again opens the door to well, maybe we don't have

518
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: to control the streets of Ramus. Other countries could do it.

519
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

520
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 6: The straits of Hormuz will be open when this operation

521
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 6: is over. It will be open, and it'll be open

522
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 6: one way or another. It will be open because Iran

523
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 6: agrees to abide by international law and not block the

524
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 6: commercial waterway, or a coalition of nations from around the

525
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 6: world and the region, with the participation of the United

526
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 6: States will make sure that it's open.

527
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 3: So the Straits of Hormuz will be open. Iran either

528
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: agrees to abide by international law and not by the

529
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 3: international law from this administration. Come on, I know this

530
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 3: as fake as hell.

531
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 2: I know you opened the war by murdering a bunch

532
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: of school girls and assassinating their head of state.

533
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 3: And threatening to bomb nuclear right. Sorry, it's a bomb

534
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 3: like power plant.

535
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

536
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: Trump, literally yesterday it was like a blow up your

537
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 2: water plants. I mean, this is like textbook war crimes.

538
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 3: But whatever I said, international law is fake, and that's fine.

539
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: International law has always been fake. It's really all been

540
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 3: in terms of the norms and the enforcement ability of

541
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 3: being able to do so. We have decided to get

542
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 3: in bed with Israel, this rogue state and conduct ourselves

543
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:30,920
Speaker 3: the way that we have. It always kind of has

544
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: been an illusion. We just decided to put the blinders

545
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 3: on and it's like, all right, well, if you're if

546
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 3: we're going to go about the world and we're going

547
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 3: to kidnap a duro and we're going to just you know,

548
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 3: come in, create a gigantic mess withdraw tell everybody else

549
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 3: to do. So who are we to tell the Iranians

550
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 3: exactly how are they going to govern the straits of Hormouse?

551
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 3: They will govern by force as we could do it too.

552
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,159
Speaker 3: You can invade and take it if you want to.

553
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 3: It'd be a nightmare and a disaster. Yeah, part of

554
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 3: the reason you maybe you shouldn't gone in this mess

555
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 3: in the first place.

556
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 2: Well, and just really quick heg Sath is doing a

557
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 2: press briefing right now, and just a couple things that

558
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 2: we're noteworthy here.

559
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 4: I see this one clip of him.

560
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 2: He says President Trump will make a deal he is willing,

561
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 2: and the terms of the deal are known to them.

562
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 2: If Iran is not willing, then the US War Department

563
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,360
Speaker 2: will continue with even more intensity. So that's the messaging

564
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: they're putting out is continuing like this, Oh, we'll deal

565
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 2: with them, but we're going to come in with even

566
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 2: more you know, fire in fury or whatever is where

567
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 2: there's what he's still messaging this morning from the podium.

568
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, so look very important just to put I just

569
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: I really am all over the place this morning, just

570
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: because I have to deal with the ramifications of what

571
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: this would mean. Also to make sure our audience understands

572
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 3: the war's still happening. The bombs are still dropping. Yeah,

573
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 3: it's not like the Israelis. Oh, they're doing just great.

574
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: They just basically annexed a half of Lebanon. In case

575
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 3: anybody's wondering, Israeli empire, it's expanded the regional super think

576
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 3: about this this nation.

577
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: Since October seventh, they've expanded their order into.

578
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,719
Speaker 3: Syria, I mean, remove the leader there. They're basically taking

579
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 3: half of Lebanon. They're basically taking I mean had the

580
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 3: West Bank. Now they're solidifying control over at Gaza.

581
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 1: Wow, you really you have to marvel at it.

582
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, this country, which I don't want to say hijacked,

583
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 3: it was, you know, willingly given. I guess yeah, I

584
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 3: think about it. We will end our own empire and

585
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: create a new Israeli one. That's effectively been the net

586
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: policy if the current status quo remains as it is.

587
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 2: Although the Israelis have their own vulnerability because they can

588
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 2: only act the way that they act because they have

589
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: our full and complete backing, it all turns and the

590
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 2: moment that that is taken away, then they are extremely vulnerable.

591
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 2: So they have their own, you know, their own vulnerabilities.

592
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 2: Here my heart breaks for them. Actually, I saw Ryan

593
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: was sharing this this threat on Twitter about you know

594
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: this whole like do they have a right to exist?

595
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 2: The state of Israel have a right to exist discourse,

596
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 2: And someone's pointing out, like, in what way are they

597
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 2: even a state?

598
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 4: Because the state would indicate that.

599
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: There are borders and laws that are applied constantly to

600
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: the citizens of that state. So by the conventional definition,

601
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: Israel isn't even a state because of the way that

602
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 2: they operate. But that's another discussion for another day. I

603
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 2: mean another thing I wanted to point out because I

604
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 2: think it's relevant. You've now got two European allies, Italy

605
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 2: and Spain, who both said we are not allowing US

606
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 2: military planes to land at you know, base at our

607
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,919
Speaker 2: bases and enjoy flyover rights. So I mean that's really significant.

608
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: So it also tells you Italy is way bigger than

609
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 2: Spain space. Yeah, Spain from the beginning has been like,

610
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: you know, it's a left wing government, their adversary, like

611
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 2: they've been opposed from the beginning Italy coming out and

612
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 2: joining them and being like, yeah, we're done here too.

613
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 2: That is highly significant and also shows you, you know,

614
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 2: shows you the way that our allies are feeling about

615
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 2: this and that they are also coming to a point

616
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,479
Speaker 2: where they're like, Okay, whatever we're getting from the US,

617
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: it is not worth it because the costs that are

618
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 2: being imposed. I mean, the energy prices in Europe already

619
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 2: were high and now they're going even higher, so they're

620
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 2: in quite a bind tier as well well. And yeah,

621
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: I don't think it's to your point about like, let's

622
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 2: say we do walk away and just tell them go

623
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 2: get your own oil and good luck with the straight

624
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 2: ofform moves. They're going to be, you know, quite willing

625
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: I think to go and make a deal with Iran

626
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 2: at whatever terms are.

627
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 3: People Marry no big fan of Europe, you know, I

628
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 3: would decouple on my own terms.

629
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: These aren't the terms that I would do it on.

630
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 3: And let's think about Italy, all right, So Italy NATO

631
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 3: country it is. I think for US base, I want

632
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 3: to say four major US bases, probably fifteen thousand or

633
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 3: so troops, a major hub for africam operate. Remember Benghazi

634
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 3: and Libya and all were scrambling the jets out of Italy.

635
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 3: It's kind of a critical US. No. Last time I

636
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: checked their own primeate. We'll get to this later on

637
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: the show. Their Defense ministers saying like he's like vague posting,

638
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 3: being like, I can't sleep at night because of the

639
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 3: things that I know that are coming. So there. Obviously,

640
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: then they're facing a crisis. And it's not like their

641
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 3: economy was doing all that well even within the EU context.

642
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 3: So for them, high energy prices nightmares, a total disaster,

643
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: especially on top of what just happened with Russia and

644
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: with Ukraine. I guess, continuing on down this line, let's

645
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 3: just make sure that we get a couple more things

646
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 3: that are in here. Oh right, A eleven or sorry,

647
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: a twelve please. This also happened yesterday. This was the

648
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 3: Kuwaiti crude carrier, the Al Salmi, was directly attacked by

649
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 3: Iranians docked at the anchorage area of the Dubaiport in UAE.

650
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 3: So yesterday the UAE took more missiles and incoming drones

651
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 3: than at any time since the first week of the war,

652
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 3: showing again Iran's projected ability or Iran's ability to continue

653
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 3: to project some force in the region and also to

654
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 3: be able to hit whatever, you know, tanker that they

655
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 3: want to. There is some confusing stuff around this tanker.

656
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 3: Apparently it was bound for China, so there's a lot

657
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 3: of reasons as for why Iran hit it. They may

658
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 3: have actually mistakenly targeted this carrier and another one that

659
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 3: was heading to Israel.

660
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: I've also seen it could have been, you know, a

661
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 2: shrapnel from a missile in or something like that. I've

662
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 2: got another clip here from Hegseth that is noteworthy on

663
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 2: the Straight of Horror Moves significantly. Specifically, he says, on

664
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: the Straight of horm Moves, there are many more vessels

665
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: flowing through today than there were as the.

666
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 4: President has arranged. Oh my god.

667
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: The President's been clear to Iran open it for business

668
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 2: or we have options, and we certainly do. There are

669
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: countries around the world who ought to be prepared to

670
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: step up on this critical waterway as well. It's not

671
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: just the United States Navy. Last time I checked, there

672
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 2: was supposed to be a big, bad Royal Navy that

673
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 2: could be prepared to do things like that as well.

674
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 2: So he's pointing out this is an international waterway that

675
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 2: we use less than most, in fact, dramatically less than most.

676
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: So the world ought to pay attention and be prepared

677
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 2: to stand up. President Trump's been willing to do the

678
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 2: heavy lifting on behalf of the free world. Oh thank

679
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 2: you so much, President Trump, to address this threat of Iran.

680
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: It's not just our problems that going forward, even though

681
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: we have done the lion's share preparation to ensure that

682
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 2: that strait will be open. So, you know, sort of

683
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: consistent with what the reporting about Trump saying basically and

684
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 2: his true social being like, hey, you guys use this

685
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 2: more than us. Go and get the oil, you know.

686
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: But in other comments, hag Seth also said, you.

687
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: Do they think we're living in eighteen ninety eight?

688
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: I know where the sun never sets on the British Empire, right,

689
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 3: look at the UK and their society.

690
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 4: I know the idea they want to go in.

691
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 2: We can't do it, but we're gonna oh they're going

692
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 2: to do okay, right yeah, and then he also says

693
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 2: we'll negotiate with bombs.

694
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 4: He loves this line.

695
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 2: Our job is to ensure we compel around to realize

696
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: that this new regime, this regime in charge, is in

697
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: a better place if they make that deal, and so

698
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: we'll continue. We're working hand in hand, but the primary

699
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: effort is a deal. We want the deal to be

700
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: accomplished if at all possible. If not, then we're prepared

701
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: to continue. So take from that what you want.

702
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: Look, I mean, we can't trust Trump's trust.

703
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 2: This guy's just as idiots to take any of his

704
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 2: work seriously.

705
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 3: I think this is what he wants to do. I

706
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: just don't agree it can be done. I mean, well

707
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 3: it can, it can, and then all the consequences that

708
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 3: we've laid out just are.

709
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: But like and it's probably and those consequences are probably

710
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 2: best case scenario at this point. If Probably continue, it

711
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: only gets worse.

712
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: Well, let's then talk about the economic ramifications. We talked

713
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 3: about the empire ramifications. You've got the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

714
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 3: They're effectively being held hostage here now by Iran. They've

715
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 3: proven their capability to hit you.

716
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 1: They have. I was listening to.

717
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: An episode this morning about the amount from odd Lot

718
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 3: shout out to them about Dubai and specifically the real

719
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: estate market.

720
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: But they touched on the amount of forty percent.

721
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 3: Of global sovereign wealth is just the golf the big

722
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 3: four country out of the globe golf, almost all that

723
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 3: wealth is invested in US companies, from venture capital to

724
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: commercial real estate to private credit markets, which are having

725
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 3: their own problems right now. Now. Let's take Katar, the

726
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 3: guitar Sovereign wealth front right, Qiaqutar Investment Authority. Well, they

727
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 3: just took a seventeen percent haircut on their natural gas

728
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 3: stands to reason, they're going to take some haircut on

729
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 3: their flow of cash, which maybe means they can't fulfill

730
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: future like deals or other things. So let's call it

731
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 3: ten percent. Well, if ten percent of that money just

732
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 3: dries up, that's a lot of money. I mean, that's

733
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 3: billions of dollars, So what's that mean? And then you've

734
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 3: got high oil prices as a result of this shock,

735
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 3: potentially for years if Iran is just messing with the

736
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 3: oil market. So these golf economies will either be held

737
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 3: hostage or they'll have to pull back their investments here

738
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 3: in the United States, Japan, South Korea, all these Asian

739
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 3: countries which we're supposed to invest all this money here,

740
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 3: they are getting destroyed right now in their stock markets

741
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 3: and their economy. So just think about the ramifications for

742
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: all of us. I mean again, look, and our.

743
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 2: Economy is a house of cards, like it's basically ai speculation.

744
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 2: It's like the whole economy and like gambling.

745
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 3: And for everybody saying, well I don't care about that,

746
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 3: I'm like, well, listen, guy, you know, oh, actually it'd

747
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: be a good thing. Yeah, I mean theoretically, you know

748
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 3: what it also means. It means you're gonna lose your job.

749
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: It means you're gonna pay higher interest rates, it means

750
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 3: that you're gonna pay high gas prices. Like remember, they'll

751
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 3: be fine taking a ten percent haircut, can you realistically

752
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: afford to take that? The answers always know is that

753
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,959
Speaker 3: the people at the top will be okay, they're largely

754
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: insulated from these decisions. But you know, when the bottom

755
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: falls out, then people get laid off, they lose their jobs,

756
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 3: can't buy a home, you can't buy a car. There's

757
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 3: it's a genuine nightmare. So look, that's what things stand. Obviously,

758
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 3: this is breaking situation. So you know, hopefully it still

759
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 3: as up to date whenever we release it.

760
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: But that's it. Why don't we turn to polling? Just

761
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 1: why did Trump decide to do this.

762
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is one piece of that puzzle.

763
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: I think probably the markets are an even more important piece.

764
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:28,760
Speaker 2: But let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.

765
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 2: This UGOV poll came out yesterday and it was a

766
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 2: real eye opener. Approval rating of thirty three percent. That

767
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 2: is about as low as I have ever ever seen it.

768
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 2: Disapproval at sixty two percent. Now, this is a little

769
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 2: bit of an It's not that much of an outlier.

770
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 2: It's a little bit of an outlier. But we've been

771
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: seeing a lot of polling coming in for him that

772
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 2: has the approval rating under forty percent. And in fact,

773
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: if we put B three up on the screen, this

774
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 2: Nate Silver's analysis of his poll no cording to his

775
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 2: average and keeps us up on the screen for a

776
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,320
Speaker 2: second because this chart is actually really useful. Cording to

777
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: his average, he now has Trump dipping under forty percent approwriting,

778
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 2: so thirty nine point seven percent I think for an

779
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 2: average of all the polls, the ones that are more

780
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: favorable to him and the ones that are less favorable

781
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 2: to him. And you can see quite clearly, first of all,

782
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: the trajectory has just been consistently downward. So of course

783
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 2: there been you know, a little peaks and valleys in between,

784
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 2: but overall the story of his second term in office

785
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 2: is just down, down, down Now. The place where we

786
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 2: actually saw the steepest decline was after a liberation Day

787
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 2: and the terriffs, which is like wildly, wildly unpopular. And

788
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 2: then you can see though since the Iran War began,

789
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 2: you know, he was actually at a little sort of

790
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 2: localized peak there and it's just been downward ever since

791
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 2: the Iran War started. Nate Silver also tracking, you know,

792
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 2: the popularity of the Iran war and finding that it

793
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 2: is very unpopular. And usually Americans off a good war,

794
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: so it's kind of historically unusual for this country to

795
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 2: have be negative on a war really from day one.

796
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 2: The other thing here, Sager is uh, but put B

797
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: two up on the screen. So we called this because

798
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 2: it was obviously predictable. When Trump and Hagsett said, oh,

799
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 2: we're going to need two hundred billion dollars to pay

800
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: for this war, and we're going to achieve it through reconciliation,

801
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 2: well that means you have to balance it with cuts.

802
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: Elsewhere where are you going to get that money?

803
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 4: Healthcare?

804
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 2: Because that's basically, like the big if you're not going

805
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 2: to cut defence spending the other end, you can't cut

806
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 2: interest spending. In fact, that piece is going up interest

807
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 2: on the debt because of bond yield surging. The only

808
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 2: other place where you have a significant amount of funds

809
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 2: is health care. So they already cut health care significantly

810
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: back in the one Big Beautiful Bill, and they are

811
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 2: looking at taking another hatchet to health care Americans health

812
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: care in order to pay for the bombs, to you know,

813
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: to hit Iran and continue off.

814
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 1: I don't I'm like, where would you even cut it from?

815
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 3: They said made deep cuts to I'm looking just at

816
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 3: even what would even potentially be.

817
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean then you're you're really i mean they're

818
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: already cut into the bone, but you're really cutting into

819
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 2: the bone with that one.

820
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: And it would be medicare advantage, okay, and this is

821
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: this is yeah, I mean.

822
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 4: Look you're cutting Medicare. Yeah, you're cutting Medicare. That's the

823
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 4: bottom line.

824
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: You know, pro Medicare.

825
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 3: Also, you know, Boomer's taking a little haircut right now, like, oh,

826
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: what a tragedy.

827
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 2: Let's rather boomers have their healthcare then, uh, not to

828
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 2: mention sar. You know, you know, you know it's pennywise

829
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:37,959
Speaker 2: and pound foolish because then you end up with people

830
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 2: at the emergency getting expensive again not getting prevented. I

831
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 2: know you understand these things, but in any case, let's

832
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: talk about how this is going to play for a

833
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 2: mid term election. We're cutting your healthcare so we can

834
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 2: bomb girls schools in Iran and you know wage Israel's war.

835
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm sure it's more expensive. And yeah, any potential

836
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: housing that.

837
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 2: You want to buy, I'm sure people are gonna gonna

838
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 2: love that. I'm sure people are going to be flocking

839
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: to the polls to you know, do their patriotic duty

840
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 2: of paying more gas at the pump and giving up

841
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,280
Speaker 2: their health care so that more bombs can be dropped

842
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 2: on Iran.

843
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,760
Speaker 1: I was thinking about it too at this point.

844
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 3: I actually do. I don't say I support more defense

845
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 3: spending because that would be the incorrect way of putting it.

846
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 3: I do not support an increase in the dollar amount.

847
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 3: I do genuinely think at this point we need like

848
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 3: a Manhattan level project to reform the entire defense industrial base.

849
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 3: Of course, under this administration, now it's pretty clear that

850
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 3: it's just not going to happen, largely because of the

851
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 3: people who are in charge, but also because of not

852
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 3: just corruption, the creative thinking and ability to take on

853
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 3: permanent Washington to basically, we need to make sure that

854
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 3: we're safe in a future conflict because what has Iran

855
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 3: really showed us is the asymmetry problem that we face

856
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 3: from drones, aircraft carriers with laundry fires, massively expensive interceptors.

857
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 3: Like this problem needs to be solved yesterday. It's literally

858
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 3: an urgent and a critical situation. And let's say if

859
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 3: we ever got into a conflict over something that really matters.

860
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 3: You know, one of the reasons why I think this

861
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 3: is so bad too, is now this poisons the well.

862
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:04,439
Speaker 3: People are going to be like, well, hold on a secon,

863
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 3: I'm not going to give you more stuff so you

864
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 3: can go do more stupid shit like this total right,

865
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: I mean rational, right, They're not going to sit there.

866
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 3: I give you the same soft case that.

867
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 2: They already get a trillion dollars. Do you know what

868
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 2: Iron's annual military budget is. It's ten billion dollars. We're

869
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 2: asking for two hundred billion just for this one excursion. Right,

870
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 2: they spent roughly ten billion dollars a year on them.

871
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: I do think they upped it a little bit since

872
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 2: the Twelve Day War or whatever. But yeah, we whoever

873
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 2: it was that was on the show, that was like,

874
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: we built our military to fight the Cold War, and

875
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:41,280
Speaker 2: it was more about like some big presentation of power

876
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 2: than it is the reality of modern warfare. And we've

877
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 2: seen the reality of modern warfare up close in the

878
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 2: Ukraine Russia.

879
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 3: Fy.

880
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: I mean, even with Hamas and what they were able

881
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 2: to do. We've seen the reality of modern warfare. And

882
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 2: the more that we obliterated international law, frankly, the more

883
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 2: it benefits a country like Iran, because in an asymmetric fight. Yeah,

884
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 2: if you have the ability to pick off civilian targets

885
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 2: and you know, screw up an oil tanker, bomba refinery,

886
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 2: bomba water desalination plan, and no one can say shit

887
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 2: to you because they murdered your head of state and

888
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: bomb little girls schools, that is not actually to our benefit.

889
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 2: That is to the benefit of smaller players who you know,

890
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: can use these low cost drums. And of course, the

891
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,720
Speaker 2: number one drone producer in the world by far is China.

892
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 3: Yes, of course, See that's what I'm most worried about.

893
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 3: I don't think we need an increase in the defense budget.

894
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 3: We need to literally we could probably spend less if

895
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 3: we just took on the actual industrial base. Formed are

896
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 3: no doubt companies, you know, had an intelligent like DARPA

897
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 3: Manhattan level Manhattan Project style like investment and just be like, Okay,

898
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 3: this is a crisis. And by the way, everyone was

899
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 3: saying this is agitating for war with China. Listen, even

900
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 3: at this point, like with the whole Taiwan situation, I mean,

901
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 3: come on, I don't know how you can look at

902
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 3: this and say there's any chance of the US having

903
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 3: the ability, right.

904
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 1: I'm not worried about that, you know what. I'm worried.

905
00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: I'm worried about Japan. I'm worried about South Korea. I'm

906
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: worried about I mean, these are real allies.

907
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 3: These are people number three, number seven whatever economy in

908
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 3: the world, top ten trading partners. We're talking about Singapore, Vietnam,

909
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 3: the Philippines. I mean, these people who have been there

910
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 3: with us. This is the backbone of the US consumer market,

911
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 3: fifty percent of global GDP. That's the stuff that I

912
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 3: actually worry about, you know, at right now, and I

913
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 3: look at this and I go, oh, it's not going

914
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 3: to happen. I mean, and you could call Dumer or

915
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,400
Speaker 3: any of that. But I genuinely believe that if we

916
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 3: could have done more in the Iran where we would

917
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 3: have it exposed all of these such so predictable problems.

918
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 3: And it's like I said, for years we heard people

919
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 3: make fun of the Russians. It's like, what if we're

920
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 3: more like the Russians than we wanted to think.

921
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:43,800
Speaker 1: It turns out we are. That's just the truth.

922
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 3: And I mean, yeah, the level of changes will take

923
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 3: from our government, and the thing is we're democracy. We

924
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 3: have to convince people why this is necessary. And this

925
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 3: has actually poisoned the well for any future defense industrial

926
00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 3: project is people are going to say, I'm not going

927
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,439
Speaker 3: to give you more weapons to go out and fight

928
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 3: stupid wars. We should only have you know, if you

929
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 3: had a doctrine of like rearmament or reform in the

930
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:13,720
Speaker 3: system without all of this insane adventurism, people would say, okay,

931
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 3: that makes sense, you know all of this. And of course,

932
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 3: by the way, two hundred billion of the one trillion

933
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 3: dollars is on tricare last time I checked, Like the

934
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 3: healthcare system.

935
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: It's a disaster from everybody I've spoken to.

936
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 3: So, yeah, the level of reform and all that we

937
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,919
Speaker 3: would need would be titanic. And also this is where

938
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 3: Doge comes into play. They poison the well on this

939
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 3: is you know, they never even looked over at the Pentagon. Yeah,

940
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 3: so I look at this present, I look at this

941
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 3: like polling now, and I just think about the overall,

942
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,399
Speaker 3: like sweeping democratic effect that this is going to have.

943
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 3: People will very rationally not want to give a dollar

944
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 3: more to defense under this administration because they don't want

945
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 3: to see more things like this. And then in the interim,

946
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 3: we still got what three more years to go. Let's

947
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 3: put B three up there on the screen. From Nate Silver,

948
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:02,399
Speaker 3: he makes a point. Trump's approval hits the thirties, can

949
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 3: his numbers get any lower? It's a it's a genuine question.

950
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: It's one of those where what else could you? What

951
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 3: could you do to lift yourself out of this? I

952
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 3: don't think in modern history we've ever had a president

953
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 3: who has been at this low at this time and

954
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 3: had any meaningful recovery. Not Look, he's going to think

955
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 3: about legacy, but let's think also generally about the GOP

956
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 3: and about the ramifications. So if you see this type

957
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 3: of situation take place in I mean, this is where

958
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 3: the Senate starts to come into play. Right, this is

959
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 3: when's the last time we lived with something like this?

960
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 3: Oh eight, I want to say, oh eight, with the

961
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 3: financial crisis and Iraq. I mean that's when crazy shit happens.

962
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 3: Like that's when what were Democrats were getting elected in

963
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 3: like North Dakota. Right, Obama won North Dakota, didn't, didn't Arkansas, but.

964
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 4: He won, He won Indiana, Carolina, North Carolina.

965
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 1: North Carolina.

966
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 3: He won North Carolina, didn't didn't like Arkansas have a

967
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 3: democratic center.

968
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you know it was insand yeah, I

969
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 2: mean part of that is because it was pre like

970
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: full partisan realignment, so things like winning in Arkansas and

971
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 2: South Dakota were more possible. But yeah, I mean in

972
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight light like there were people

973
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 2: who won Eleia. You think about that, but no one

974
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: thought was going to be on the table. And you

975
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 2: know the other thing Nate Silver points out because this

976
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 2: question of like can you go even lower than the thirties,

977
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 2: because his base famously very strong, very cold, like etcetera.

978
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 4: That is definitely the case. But he does point out that.

979
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 2: The level of strong approval for Trump has really fallen off.

980
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 2: So if you ask people, you know, you can give

981
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 2: people these options not just to prove disapproved, but strong

982
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 2: disapprove or strong approve week approve week disapprove. And the

983
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 2: strong approve has fallen from you know, at the beginning

984
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 2: of the term, it was at thirty six percent.

985
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 4: Now is only twenty two percent.

986
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 2: And that's all his base going from like, yes, make

987
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,959
Speaker 2: America great again to being like, I think he's better

988
00:44:59,000 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 2: than Kamala you know.

989
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 4: I mean that's and.

990
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: That's significantly the only cope that you have left.

991
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 2: And in a midterm election, that's really significant because look,

992
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 2: these are all people. Anybody who approves of Trump is

993
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 2: going to vote Republican if they come.

994
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 4: Out and vote.

995
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 2: But if you're feeling like, eh, this is not that great,

996
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 2: are you going to take the time to come out

997
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 2: and vote. I mean, it looks and that's why.

998
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 3: Also the same scenario, yeah, is you have all these

999
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: disappointed Democrats and they're like, hey, you said you would

1000
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 3: get us out of a rack that didn't happen. You

1001
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,280
Speaker 3: said you would end the war in Afghanistan. We're sending

1002
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 3: more troops to Afghanistan, where you just fucked up my healthcare. Yeah,

1003
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 3: I mean, you know I'm not happy about this.

1004
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:34,359
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1005
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. And so I mean it's look the midterms. Democrats

1006
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 2: just won yet another seat in Florida. It was like

1007
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,320
Speaker 2: really close. It was in a Trump plus eleven district.

1008
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 2: This is different than the one that has that represents

1009
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 2: mar A Lago. This is another Florida special election seat

1010
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:51,439
Speaker 2: the Democrats just won. I think that means that they've

1011
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 2: flipped thirty one seats in since Trump's election and Republicans

1012
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,400
Speaker 2: have flipped zero. I mean, it's very clear where things

1013
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 2: they're trending. The only question is what sort of what

1014
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 2: sort of things Trump's going to do to try to

1015
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 2: mess with the elections. But I have to say, at

1016
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,879
Speaker 2: this point I'm less worried about that because it's one

1017
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 2: thing when things are marginal, you can screw with things

1018
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: enough that it makes a difference. It's looking increasingly like

1019
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 2: things are not going to be marginal.

1020
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 1: Well, also big to create.

1021
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 3: Twenty four and twenty twenty six will be the two

1022
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 3: big too reg elections, which is really funny. But then

1023
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 3: let's think about you know, generally what that even means politically,

1024
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 3: this is this would be two thousand and eight level

1025
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: sea change, except within the Democratic Party. There's been all

1026
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 3: kinds of learning within the Republican Party. I have no idea.

1027
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't see a scenario where there are

1028
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 3: more Tom Tillis types who are willing to buck Trump.

1029
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 3: But if anything, it'll probably narrow the faithful down to

1030
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 3: like an extremely small group. But it could be years

1031
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 3: then in the wilderness, like, yeah, those are wilderness years

1032
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 3: where six years, eight years out of power. I mean,

1033
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 3: who knows right? And all kinds of crazy stuff happens, saga,

1034
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 3: what do you.

1035
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 4: What do you make of?

1036
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 2: Sorry, what do you make of all these poor about

1037
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 2: like oh jd Vance is trying to bring the word

1038
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 2: a close and he's not happy and he said you

1039
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 2: better cut it down or whatever? What is that coming

1040
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 2: from his team trying to separate or what is the

1041
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 2: Word's coming?

1042
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 3: So I think it's I think I have no inside

1043
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 3: knowledge as people you might suspect many people.

1044
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: Are very upset with me right now.

1045
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,720
Speaker 3: But my theory, and this is based on a little

1046
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 3: bit of like observation and knowledge of the dynamic. A

1047
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 3: lot of people who were his boosters are very worried

1048
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 3: about his potential candidacy, and so that is a very convenient.

1049
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 3: Now here's the problem, though, those leaks, while could be

1050
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 3: important for him in the future, are actually extremely detrimental

1051
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 3: to him in the interim because any report that the

1052
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 3: vice president's you know, straying away from the president, is

1053
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 3: very bad for him in the immediate term. At the

1054
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 3: end of the day, the calculus is empirically correct. Politically,

1055
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: he has to chain himself at the hip with Trump.

1056
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 3: That's why whatever Trump does, he has to different. Did

1057
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 3: you see him given the Iraq you know, comment in

1058
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 3: the situation room about a suicide bomber.

1059
00:47:58,200 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 4: Oh god, yeah.

1060
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 3: I was like, oh, okay, so we're doing this now. Yeah.

1061
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 2: What I was like, just imagine if they've got suicide

1062
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 2: vests that are nuclear bombs and they get It's like.

1063
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 3: I mean, that's one of those where I'll tell you, look,

1064
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 3: I've been shocked by a lot. I see that and I'm.

1065
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 4: Like, wow, yeah, like that's.

1066
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: That's what we're doing now.

1067
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 3: But that's evidence of the point of this dramatically difficult dynamic,

1068
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 3: which is you have to change yourself to if he

1069
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 3: loses his access to Trump, you lose everything. The vice

1070
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 3: presiden s hees an irrelevant job. Ask Kamala Harris, John

1071
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 3: Nance Garner, FDR's vice president. It's not worth a warm

1072
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 3: bucket of piss, I believe is what he said. He

1073
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:37,879
Speaker 3: hated it, absolutely hated it. And so it's really only

1074
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 3: what the president decides to give you. Now, look, there's

1075
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 3: a various different schools of thought, because clearly the president

1076
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:44,879
Speaker 3: dosn't really give a shit what he thinks very much

1077
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 3: whenever it comes to foreign policy, and it's just going

1078
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 3: to make you go out and humiliate himself. But I

1079
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 3: do think a lot of the people who are around him,

1080
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 3: let's say consultants and others, are either either leaking it

1081
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 3: or they're trying to like prop up this type of

1082
00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 3: messaging to preserve that optionality in the future. But honestly,

1083
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 3: the smart play at this, I mean we're talking now,

1084
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 3: who knows what things will look like in three years.

1085
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 3: I've seen sora Aba Marii with a guest we've had

1086
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 3: on he's very close with JD. He wrote a piece

1087
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 3: and he's like, maybe you won't run in twenty twenty eight,

1088
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 3: maybe you would run in twenty thirty two, Like some

1089
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 3: sort of Nixon style comeback, you know, spend a couple

1090
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 3: of years in the wilderness. Let Margot Rubio be the

1091
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 3: heir to Trump, you know. Enjoy yeah, enjoy right, you

1092
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 3: know all I want to He's having a baby this year,

1093
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 3: He's going to have four kids, easy excuse. I want

1094
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 3: to spend more time with my family, my young family.

1095
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 3: I could see that as well. So I really have

1096
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 3: no idea. I mean, if you were asking me today,

1097
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 3: that would be a smart play. At the same time,

1098
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 3: in politics, it's all about timing, like, yeah, we're only

1099
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 3: going to be vice president once. People may not care

1100
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 3: who you are five.

1101
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 2: Years from I think the thing I'll say is that

1102
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 2: for Trump, it is not a good sign that the

1103
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 2: heir apparent, which is obviously your vice president, either him

1104
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 2: or his staff, think that it may be politically advantageous

1105
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 2: for them to try to create some distance from the mayor.

1106
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 2: It's been the you know, the king maker in the

1107
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:03,399
Speaker 2: Republican Party.

1108
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 3: But this is why vice presidents are terrible candidates. They

1109
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 3: just shouldn't run like they really. If you look in history,

1110
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:12,280
Speaker 3: who are all the vice presidents who really got screwed?

1111
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 3: Gore Harris, I mean, potentially JD. There's I mean, there's

1112
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 3: a few successful campaigns, but like that be a bush right,

1113
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,800
Speaker 3: even then he was you know, he's riding off the

1114
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 3: coatails of Reagan. When he's to stand on his own

1115
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: two feet, he gets a bitch slapped by Bill Clinton.

1116
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 1: Right, and Ron Rose health. You really can see in.

1117
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:32,360
Speaker 3: Like vice presidents empirically then are kind of bad candidates

1118
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 3: because they're so chained to the status quo.

1119
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 1: Sometimes you get lucky, especially.

1120
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 4: In the modern time.

1121
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 2: It doesn't work, especially in the modern era where people

1122
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,760
Speaker 2: are just disgusted with the stuff we have. Change election

1123
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 2: after change election. But I mean all of all of

1124
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,399
Speaker 2: the little leaks that they're putting out or whatever they're doing.

1125
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of the day, when you

1126
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:50,959
Speaker 2: decided to cozy up to Trump and be his guy

1127
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 2: and defend it like you placed your bet, well, there's

1128
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 2: that that would be the you know, that would be

1129
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 2: the lane. And it wasn't in bad bed politically because

1130
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 2: he has been so dominant in terms of the Republican Party.

1131
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 2: But I just think, I mean, it's very possible a

1132
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 2: Republican project is just destroyed for quite a while for anyone,

1133
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 2: whether it's him, or Rubio or even Tucker Carlson.

1134
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 7: Or or whatever.

1135
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 1: Things changed rapidly in American politics.

1136
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 3: A decade from now, I mean a decade ago, you're

1137
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 3: really going to say Trump is going to stick around

1138
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:21,439
Speaker 3: still be the president of the United States. No, nobody

1139
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 3: would say that, right, Remember forty more years, so that

1140
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: never make grand pronouncements about it's over forever. It could

1141
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 3: be over in the interim, six to eight years, something

1142
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 3: like that. And I think American history, modern American history

1143
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,720
Speaker 3: shows us genuine dominance would be the FDR to Truman

1144
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 3: of about what was that twenty something years twenty four

1145
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 3: years right of democratic rule. That's about as good as

1146
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 3: you can get, I think in America. And so yeah,

1147
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 3: large majority things change very rapidly. But for Vance, I

1148
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,800
Speaker 3: mean I actually was thinking about this earlier, not started

1149
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 3: going on a bit of a tangent. He was at

1150
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 3: a donor retreat yesterday with a lot of tech people

1151
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 3: and a lot of them are very pro AI, and

1152
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 3: I was like, you know, that's like the wrong side

1153
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 3: of that issue, right, So you've I mean, it's not

1154
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 3: me saying this, like Republican voters are like, hey, I

1155
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 3: don't want these data centers here right voters period, right

1156
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 3: voter's period. But I'm saying even Republican voters, they are

1157
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 3: not on board with a lot of the AI policy out.

1158
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 1: Of this current White House. They're not paying attention per se.

1159
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 3: But the data center is gonna be a critical issue,

1160
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 3: I think, especially in an energy crunch after this nonsense. Yeah,

1161
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,720
Speaker 3: we're gonna pay higher bills to make sure that Google's AI.

1162
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 3: Can you know, create black Nazis in the Gemini Like, No,

1163
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 3: we're not doing that. Yeah, So I was thinking about

1164
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 3: that too. About I actually think the insurgent lane in

1165
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:36,720
Speaker 3: the Republican Party is probably more open than ever before.

1166
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 3: Like somebody could do to the Republican Party today what

1167
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 3: Trump did. Somebody has to be so disconnected from the

1168
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 3: system to be able to stand on the stage and

1169
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:48,439
Speaker 3: be able to be like Donald. No one's ever told

1170
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,359
Speaker 3: you this, mister Vice President. Iran was a disaster. You know,

1171
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 3: maybe need somebody to be able to say that.

1172
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 2: I mean maybe, But at this point we're still at

1173
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 2: a place where the Republican base, right, they may not

1174
00:52:58,000 --> 00:52:58,800
Speaker 2: be in love.

1175
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,080
Speaker 1: But their day, yeah, let's say years from now.

1176
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 4: Possible, that's possible.

1177
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 3: It probably couldn't happen in twenty twenty eight, and maybe

1178
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 3: it can't really happen while Trump is still alive, but yeah,

1179
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 3: look he's eighty.

1180
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:09,400
Speaker 1: You know, who knows ten years from now what that

1181
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 1: would look like.

1182
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, same thing like Iraq. Ten years later, somebody

1183
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 3: can come along, let's say any Trump lined official is

1184
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 3: running and tell the truth, and just say the truth

1185
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 3: what happened with Iran?

1186
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: I maybe wish casting. I don't know how things will

1187
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 1: work out.

1188
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: Obviously, last one I'll make put sorry B three Nate

1189
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:26,919
Speaker 2: Silver's thing back up on the screen for the third

1190
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,760
Speaker 2: time here. But I want to make a point about

1191
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:33,399
Speaker 2: look at each of these, each of these moments that

1192
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 2: you know where he really suffers a significant decline. So

1193
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 2: first you have the Liberation Day announcement. So none of

1194
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 2: these are external crises. These are all things that Trump

1195
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 2: himself did, right. So the Liberation Day tariffs dreadfully unpopular

1196
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 2: and a chaotic mess. Even you know, were people who

1197
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 2: are sympathetic to targeted tariffs.

1198
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 4: This was idiotic.

1199
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 3: Okay.

1200
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 2: Justice Department declares Epstein investigation over again. The whole Epstein thing,

1201
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:03,320
Speaker 2: total own goal mess, disaster, really damaging to his brand.

1202
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 2: Government shutdown begins again. These are you know, political problems

1203
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 2: that he could have handled differently. Then you have Renee

1204
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 2: Good killed and of course Alex pretty a week or

1205
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 2: so after this was again all because of his choice

1206
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: to occupy the city of Minneapolis, after Nick Shirley does

1207
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 2: his like Somali fraud thing, and then the Iran War starts.

1208
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 4: I mean, in a sense, he's been so fortunate.

1209
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 2: There haven't been a lot of really any major external

1210
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:33,879
Speaker 2: crises in this administration.

1211
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 4: This is all of his own making, every.

1212
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 2: One of these decisions, and Doge was not even on

1213
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 2: there was also ended up being you know, a total

1214
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 2: cluster and profoundly unpopular, etc. Even though it started off

1215
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 2: with people sort of open and receptive to it. So

1216
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 2: I mean, that's why I do think that the damage

1217
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:53,320
Speaker 2: to the Republican Party will be could be relatively severe,

1218
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 2: because you know, it's one thing, like you're dealing with coronavirus.

1219
00:54:57,480 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 2: It's not your fault, and it's everyverybody struggling to deal

1220
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: with it, you know. I Mean, obviously, there were moves

1221
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 2: that were made by the United States of America that

1222
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 2: helped to spark the Ukraine Russia War, but that ultimately

1223
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: is also like an external event, at least is perceived

1224
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 2: that way by the general public. These are all choices

1225
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: that he made, that every single one of these frickin

1226
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,919
Speaker 2: people were out there defending. So I mean, that's part

1227
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 2: of why.

1228
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 3: It's very Iraq level. Yeah, very similar, that's right, why

1229
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 3: Iraq just nuked them, that's right.

1230
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 2: And the Rock started so much more popular and honestly

1231
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 2: had less of a direct impact on our lives, and

1232
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:32,239
Speaker 2: this is already having outside Obviously, you know, there were

1233
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 2: you know, severe casualties and American service members who were killed.

1234
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 2: But unfortunately, the reality of service in this country at

1235
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 2: this point is that it's confined too. It's sort of

1236
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 2: like segregated off from a lot of the population. So

1237
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,319
Speaker 2: in any case, you know, certainly he's looking at these

1238
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 2: polls and feeling like things are not going too great,

1239
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:51,319
Speaker 2: which part of what played into potentially the attempted TAKO.

1240
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:54,319
Speaker 3: That's right. All right, we've got our friend Rory standing by,

1241
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:58,959
Speaker 3: let's get to it. Joining us now is our great

1242
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 3: friend Rory Johnston. He is the founder of Commodity Context

1243
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:05,279
Speaker 3: on subsect, which we highly recommend everybody go to subscribe to.

1244
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 3: There will be a link down in the description. Thanks

1245
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:08,399
Speaker 3: for joining us, man, appreciate it.

1246
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me back.

1247
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,839
Speaker 3: All right, so Rory, let's start with your reaction to

1248
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 3: the Trump taco It's taco Tuesday.

1249
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 1: Let's put this up here on the screen.

1250
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 3: All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because

1251
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:20,239
Speaker 3: of the Straits of Hornmus, like the United Kingdom, which

1252
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 3: refused to involve to a capitation of Iran. I have

1253
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 3: a suggestion from you, number one, buy from the US.

1254
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 3: We have plenty number two build up some delayed courage.

1255
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:27,760
Speaker 3: Go to the strait.

1256
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 1: Just take it.

1257
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 3: You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself.

1258
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 3: The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just

1259
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 3: like you weren't there for US. Iran has been essentially decimated.

1260
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 3: The hard part is done. Go get your own oil. So,

1261
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 3: as the premiere oil analyst, how's that gonna work?

1262
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,760
Speaker 7: I mean, it's just a wild statement from a US president.

1263
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 7: I think just on two points here. Actually, let's go.

1264
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 7: It's actually this little a third point as well. So

1265
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 7: hard part's done, you know, you do the rest. Obviously,

1266
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 7: the rest is the part that's too hard for Trump

1267
00:56:57,400 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 7: to do himself. So I would say at this stage

1268
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:03,280
Speaker 7: it's not entirely sincere, although that's not shocking in this environment.

1269
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:07,359
Speaker 7: I think the part that really hits like a hammer, though,

1270
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 7: is the go get your own oil exclamation mark, which

1271
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 7: is essentially like the epigraph on a book about the

1272
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 7: end of the Carter doctrine, that the United States has

1273
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 7: been the has been the policeman in this region of

1274
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 7: the world for decades. It has been the guaranteur of

1275
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 7: these oil supplies and for the regional security of the

1276
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 7: golf kingdoms and golf states and golf you know, oil exporters.

1277
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:35,120
Speaker 7: It's a complete rewriting of how this situation in the

1278
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 7: Middle East works.

1279
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 1: And I you know, when we're talking.

1280
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 7: About the unilateral taco I think I kind of see

1281
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 7: the two most likely scenarios here as kind of the

1282
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 7: really really bad scenario where the global economy goes into

1283
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 7: like a deep recession, we get two hundred dollars plus oil.

1284
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 7: That is the scenario I think that we've been grinding

1285
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 7: towards steadily and disconcertingly of boots on the ground trying

1286
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:59,919
Speaker 7: to take carg Island, et cetera, et cetera. That's where

1287
00:57:59,920 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 7: you get prolonged closure to the strait. You get risk

1288
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 7: of further, you know, attacks on regionally oil infrastructure, things

1289
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 7: that can't just be undone, things that are permanent or

1290
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 7: at least years long durable. I think that's a scenario,

1291
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 7: but I see that is so dire that I see

1292
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 7: it as very difficult to hold in my base case,

1293
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 7: because I just don't think that any politician, at least

1294
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 7: alone Donald Trump, has the wherewithal to go through with

1295
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 7: kind of something so long and arduous like that. I

1296
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 7: think more likely here is the other scenario, which is

1297
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 7: my base case from the very beginning, which has been

1298
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 7: what I call the unilateral Taco, which is people are like, well,

1299
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 7: Trump can't just taco. This is not tariffs, this is

1300
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 7: not trade policy. You know, there are multiple participants in

1301
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 7: this war. He can't just decide by himself. I humbly disagree,

1302
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 7: and I think that Trump would likely disagree with that

1303
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 7: as well. I think, if we've seen anything about Trump,

1304
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:49,400
Speaker 7: he's not bound by precedent, he's not bound by allies,

1305
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 7: not bound by anything, and I think he's very clearly

1306
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 7: already bored of this war. I think by this stage

1307
00:58:56,680 --> 00:59:00,080
Speaker 7: he planned to basically be rolling over onto Cuba. I

1308
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 7: think that, you know, I never thought that Trump planned

1309
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 7: to get this deep, and he never had a plan

1310
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 7: for once he was this deep. So I think if

1311
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 7: the if the consequences keep ramping, and I don't think

1312
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:11,400
Speaker 7: this is over yet. I think that we still need

1313
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:14,760
Speaker 7: higher oil prices and lower equity prices and more economic

1314
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 7: pain to force that unilateral taco. But that's how I

1315
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 7: see this eventually going. Is the one day we're just

1316
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 7: going to get a post. It's like it's done, you know,

1317
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 7: US Navy sailing home. That's how I pitched this ending.

1318
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 4: Let's fit C zero up on the screen.

1319
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:29,960
Speaker 2: We're now officially at national average over four dollars a

1320
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 2: gallon for gas, so a significant and not great milestone

1321
00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:38,480
Speaker 2: being reached here. Let's say that he does the full taco.

1322
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 2: Go get your own gas. We're out straight up hor moves.

1323
00:59:41,880 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 2: There's a new reality. There's a new sheriff in town.

1324
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 2: We're gonna let a run charge their toll and you

1325
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 2: know you can do deals with.

1326
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 4: Them and shines as you on. We're out a here.

1327
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 2: Okay, let's say that that is what happens. What is

1328
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 2: the damage that's already been done and how will that

1329
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 2: trickle throughout the global economy.

1330
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:01,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, So the one thing I want to kind of

1331
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 7: stress here is that, in no reasonable scenario coming out

1332
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 7: of the Iraan War do I see the oil market

1333
01:00:07,080 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 7: being in a healthier or more secure position than which

1334
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 7: it entered the war in. So I think, you know,

1335
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,920
Speaker 7: any scenario is going to have structurally higher prices. I

1336
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 7: think in the scenario where you have, you know, a

1337
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 7: boots on the ground drag out two hundred dollars plus,

1338
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:24,960
Speaker 7: I think in this scenario of a unilateral taco Aroan

1339
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:27,840
Speaker 7: having some kind of sovereign control over the Strait, which

1340
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 7: again is just an unthinkable thing to kind of consider

1341
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 7: long term, but that's what we're looking like. We're at

1342
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 7: least trending towards possibly in that scenario. I still think

1343
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:38,960
Speaker 7: the oil price is currently I'm looking at my screen,

1344
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 7: brents just about one hundred and seventeen.

1345
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 1: I think that's still too low. I think that, you know, even.

1346
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 7: Though this unilateral taco is bearish or a lower price

1347
01:00:47,640 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 7: environment than the boots on the ground scenario, I think

1348
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 7: both of them are still dire and like a deeply

1349
01:00:53,120 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 7: untendable supply situation. I think in the scenario where iron

1350
01:00:56,160 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 7: does continue to control the straight, then we're just going

1351
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 7: to like, it's just setting a up very predictably for

1352
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 7: the next crisis.

1353
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 1: I think this is like, this is a situation that

1354
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 1: can't last.

1355
01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 7: It is inherently politically untenable and unstable, and we're going

1356
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 7: to get the next flare up. So we go from

1357
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 7: a long drawn out, awful horror moves closure to maybe

1358
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:17,680
Speaker 7: like a perennial two week closure and horm moves, which

1359
01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 7: seems like an insane thing to bake into the system.

1360
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 7: But that's kind of again what it's looking like we

1361
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 7: might be arriving at.

1362
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really does. Let's go and put a nine

1363
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:27,600
Speaker 3: guys up on there on the screen. That's the bill

1364
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 3: in that is being passed through Iran. They say that

1365
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 3: they would impose a toll system in Rial's that they

1366
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 3: would ban passage of US and israelly vessels through the Strait,

1367
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 3: assert Iranian sovereignty over the airway, strategic waterway, ban any

1368
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 3: country that imposes unilateral sanctions against Iran. Oman slated to

1369
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,160
Speaker 3: help shape the legal frame.

1370
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:49,520
Speaker 2: By the way, that Omani piece is actually pretty significant.

1371
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean, let's let's game this out. I

1372
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 3: was thinking earlier, I go, how could you be the

1373
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 3: Gulf countries where you have to get all you just

1374
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:01,439
Speaker 3: got bombed by these people, have to pay them some

1375
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,080
Speaker 3: sort of toll and maybe they won't even want money,

1376
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:06,920
Speaker 3: and they're like bombs keep coming unless the bases go.

1377
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:09,920
Speaker 3: But like that seems to be the reality. I mean,

1378
01:02:09,960 --> 01:02:12,920
Speaker 3: the UK, Japan, South Korea, all of these Asian countries,

1379
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 3: they would have to pay. I mean, I don't even

1380
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 3: know how they could get real's by the way, I mean,

1381
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 3: is there a market, you know, to exchange, Like, talk

1382
01:02:20,240 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 3: us through what that would look like.

1383
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, So just so let's talk through the size of

1384
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 7: the toll first, cause I think you know, what we've

1385
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 7: seen discussed so far is a two million dollar passage,

1386
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 7: which sounds very expensive, but relative to like a VLCC

1387
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,960
Speaker 7: or a very large crude carrier tanker, the largest ones

1388
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 7: they are typically used, they carry about two million barrels

1389
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 7: of crude, So that's only about a dollar a barrel

1390
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:47,280
Speaker 7: on toll. That is expensive, but relative to the current, deeply,

1391
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:51,240
Speaker 7: deeply problematic status quo, it is a clear kind of

1392
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:55,440
Speaker 7: beneficial change to the global supply situation. But to your point,

1393
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 7: the politics of this are deeply untenable, and it seems

1394
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:02,640
Speaker 7: unlikely that they're would allow a complete reopening of the strait.

1395
01:03:02,680 --> 01:03:02,919
Speaker 1: Again.

1396
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 7: Prior to the war, we were having about one hundred

1397
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:07,880
Speaker 7: plus one hundred to one hundred and twenty vessels crossing

1398
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 7: the street every day. You know, maybe we get back

1399
01:03:10,440 --> 01:03:12,520
Speaker 7: up to fifty percent of that. Then with some of

1400
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 7: the offices that we have in the system, like the

1401
01:03:14,280 --> 01:03:17,840
Speaker 7: Saudi East West Pipeline and other and other sources, maybe

1402
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:20,040
Speaker 7: we get back to something that's you know, just a

1403
01:03:20,080 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 7: deep deficit rather than a catastrophic supply deficit. But I

1404
01:03:23,160 --> 01:03:25,720
Speaker 7: think that's the scenario, is that we just have some

1405
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 7: kind of durable control for Iran in this in this region,

1406
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 7: and the Gulf country is kind of having just need

1407
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 7: to you know, swallow the bitter pill because the alternative

1408
01:03:36,680 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 7: is existential for them. This, I think is is existential

1409
01:03:40,160 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 7: for them as well. But at least it is a

1410
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 7: scenario where they continue exporting their oil and restarting their

1411
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 7: economies relative to right now where virtually, I mean, by far,

1412
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 7: they're a large economic sector is completely sidelined.

1413
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:55,200
Speaker 2: The other thing Trump says offers as a solution other

1414
01:03:55,280 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 2: than go get your own oil and good luck militarily

1415
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,640
Speaker 2: in the Strait of Hormuz is, Hey, come buy from us.

1416
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:03,480
Speaker 2: We've got plenty of oil. Can you talk about, you know,

1417
01:04:03,520 --> 01:04:08,040
Speaker 2: how our supply fits into the global oil markets and

1418
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 2: the reality of what that looks like as well.

1419
01:04:10,400 --> 01:04:11,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, yeah, definitely.

1420
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 7: So let's say Europe is, because I think that's kind

1421
01:04:14,400 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 7: of who he's aiming this tweet apt in terms of

1422
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 7: like the UK reference, The UK and Europe more broadly

1423
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 7: is a net import of what we call middle distillates,

1424
01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 7: so diesel, jet fuel, et cetera.

1425
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 1: Historically, Europe got that from Russia.

1426
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 7: Following twenty twenty two, in the invasion of Ukraine, they

1427
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:34,480
Speaker 7: ban the import of Russian oil and gas, and increasingly

1428
01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:37,320
Speaker 7: they turn your European importer's turned to the Middle East

1429
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 7: and the Gulf for those supplies. So this is obviously

1430
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 7: particularly acute for them. You can actually, you know, the

1431
01:04:43,600 --> 01:04:46,440
Speaker 7: United States is a net exporter of diesel and middle distillates.

1432
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 7: Largely those current cargoes go to Latin America. Mexico is

1433
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 7: the largest single recipient. So if if Europe started to

1434
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:58,160
Speaker 7: overbid those one, they'd be paying a very pretty penny

1435
01:04:58,160 --> 01:05:01,640
Speaker 7: for them, and you'd essentially be taking those flows away

1436
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 7: from Latin American importers, which are going to be in

1437
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:06,480
Speaker 7: a different entire world of hurt. But I think also

1438
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:09,760
Speaker 7: what's further going to complicate this is if this crisis continues,

1439
01:05:09,760 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 7: it if prices get get higher and more volatile. I

1440
01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:15,920
Speaker 7: think the one thing that a lot of people, a

1441
01:05:15,960 --> 01:05:18,440
Speaker 7: lot of analysts have been watching for is any signs

1442
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 7: that the Trump ministration is going to pull the trigger

1443
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:23,560
Speaker 7: on some kind of trade restrictions, which obviously I think

1444
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 7: I mean the ultimate rug pull here would basically be

1445
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 7: that Trump starts the Iran war, destabilizes a straight leaves

1446
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 7: and says, oh, by the way, your problem, go get

1447
01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 7: your own oil or buy from us.

1448
01:05:34,360 --> 01:05:35,480
Speaker 1: They're like, okay, we'll buy from you.

1449
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:37,720
Speaker 7: And they's like, actually, we're going to ban the export

1450
01:05:37,760 --> 01:05:39,520
Speaker 7: of diesel in the first place, so go find it

1451
01:05:39,600 --> 01:05:42,520
Speaker 7: somewhere else. Like this is it's a recurring cycle of

1452
01:05:42,760 --> 01:05:46,400
Speaker 7: kind of bad faith negotiations and diplomacy leading to just

1453
01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:49,280
Speaker 7: a situation that is, you know, sure, the United States,

1454
01:05:49,480 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 7: relative to a lot of the rest of the world,

1455
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 7: is going to be in a relatively better spot because

1456
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 7: large domestic production. I'm up in Toronto, you know you

1457
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:01,480
Speaker 7: have secure supplies of Canadian crude into the US Midwest

1458
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:04,400
Speaker 7: in particular, that can't get enticed away to other regions.

1459
01:06:04,480 --> 01:06:06,280
Speaker 7: So the United States is in a good spot, but

1460
01:06:06,640 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 7: the DNA States exists in a global economy and the

1461
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 7: US can. You know, no matter how strong the US

1462
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 7: economy is, it's going to feel those buffet that buffetting

1463
01:06:15,520 --> 01:06:17,960
Speaker 7: from a global economy if it's under that retrenchment of

1464
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 7: this recessionary pressure.

1465
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:21,480
Speaker 3: Something I've really learned from you, Rory, is about why

1466
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:23,720
Speaker 3: an export ban would be a bad idea. You've talked

1467
01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 3: actually about refinery capacity, about the various different types of

1468
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 3: refineries and what they're built for some of US refeorgn oil,

1469
01:06:30,280 --> 01:06:33,080
Speaker 3: some other foreign refineries built for US oil, about how

1470
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:35,560
Speaker 3: much that would distort the global market. So when people

1471
01:06:35,600 --> 01:06:38,240
Speaker 3: say Trump, when Trump says you can come buy from US,

1472
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 3: I think you know what you're trying to hammer home

1473
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:42,120
Speaker 3: is yeah, they'll come buy from US, but we have

1474
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 3: to buy ours too, and that's really going to be expensive.

1475
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:46,680
Speaker 3: So it could still be a six dollars a gallon

1476
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:50,280
Speaker 3: type scenario depending on where the crude oil market and

1477
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 3: all of that goes. Not to mention, I mean, I

1478
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:54,880
Speaker 3: know you're not an LNG expert either, but like that

1479
01:06:55,200 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 3: is also kind of critical last time I checked for Europe.

1480
01:06:58,120 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 3: Could you just talk through that about why you're kind

1481
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 3: of screwed either way. If you do an export ban,

1482
01:07:02,720 --> 01:07:05,320
Speaker 3: you really would hurt the US market, you know, kind

1483
01:07:05,320 --> 01:07:07,480
Speaker 3: of forever. And if you don't, we're also still going

1484
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 3: to have.

1485
01:07:07,640 --> 01:07:08,760
Speaker 1: To pay sky high prices.

1486
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:11,479
Speaker 7: Yeah, just to your point, even aside from the crude

1487
01:07:11,560 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 7: quality and the kind of you know, refinery slate stuff,

1488
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 7: even just on the product side, if you know, the

1489
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:18,880
Speaker 7: US Golf Coast the net exporter of diesel and jet

1490
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 7: fuel and other products like that, whereas the East and

1491
01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:23,960
Speaker 7: West Coast or net importers of gasoline.

1492
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:25,959
Speaker 1: The relaxation and kind.

1493
01:07:25,880 --> 01:07:28,640
Speaker 7: Of suspension or waving of the Jones Act could allow

1494
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 7: some more of those Gulf coast barrels to the coasts

1495
01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 7: in a way that could help an autarchic kind of

1496
01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 7: US petroleum trade work without completely breaking But fundamentally you

1497
01:07:39,320 --> 01:07:43,120
Speaker 7: need these export markets in order to clear additional like

1498
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:46,000
Speaker 7: let's say, access diesel from the from the US Golf Coast.

1499
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 7: If you ban the export of that, it initially manifest

1500
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:50,640
Speaker 7: is what the White Hesland see is a great thing,

1501
01:07:50,680 --> 01:07:54,720
Speaker 7: which is you'd have excess supplies, you'd have inventories that

1502
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 7: build up, you'd have depressed diesel prices domestically briefly, which

1503
01:07:59,040 --> 01:08:00,680
Speaker 7: is going to sound like a great for a couple

1504
01:08:00,680 --> 01:08:03,800
Speaker 7: of weeks until that surplus of diesel and that ends

1505
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:07,360
Speaker 7: up forcing those Golf Coast refineries to reduce their run.

1506
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:09,280
Speaker 1: Rates because they can't put their diesel anywhere.

1507
01:08:09,320 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 7: And that means that you'd end up in a situation

1508
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:12,680
Speaker 7: where you could actually end up running out or having

1509
01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 7: a scarcity of gasoline in the US Golf Coast, which

1510
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:18,200
Speaker 7: would be an insane thing. One thing I keep saying

1511
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 7: is that for advanced economies, this will largely manifest as

1512
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:25,120
Speaker 7: a debilitating price shock because we will be able to

1513
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:27,800
Speaker 7: we have very low price sensitively these fuels. I like

1514
01:08:27,840 --> 01:08:29,720
Speaker 7: to say, like I'm driving my kids to school regardless

1515
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:32,680
Speaker 7: of how high the pump price is. But much of

1516
01:08:32,720 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 7: the world does not have that scenario, and they're going

1517
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 7: to feel the weight of this through supply losses, but

1518
01:08:38,200 --> 01:08:41,719
Speaker 7: as soon as actual scarcity and the lack of supply.

1519
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 7: But the way you can short circuit that ability for

1520
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:47,280
Speaker 7: us to pay for these fuels is by beginning to

1521
01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:49,960
Speaker 7: muck with trade, and I think that is the temptation here,

1522
01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:52,200
Speaker 7: and again that's my worry of if this keeps going,

1523
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:53,360
Speaker 7: where we could be headed.

1524
01:08:53,800 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 2: Let's put C five up on the screen. There was

1525
01:08:56,240 --> 01:09:01,040
Speaker 2: an announcement from Russia they're planning to ban gasoline exports

1526
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:06,919
Speaker 2: starting on April first. You know, Russia obviously major oil producer,

1527
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:11,120
Speaker 2: a significant global supplier. What is the significance of this.

1528
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:13,880
Speaker 7: Yeah, so I think you're seeing a lot of countries

1529
01:09:13,920 --> 01:09:16,839
Speaker 7: around the world. Russia's one example. China is another example,

1530
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:19,599
Speaker 7: I think even more critically, that has banned the export

1531
01:09:19,680 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 7: of refined fuels in twenty twenty two. They are a

1532
01:09:22,120 --> 01:09:25,920
Speaker 7: very important swing producer into that diesel starved market. With

1533
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:29,320
Speaker 7: Russia specifically, Russia isn't oft isn't. Typically it's a very

1534
01:09:29,360 --> 01:09:33,320
Speaker 7: very minor net export of gasoline, and ever since Ukraine's

1535
01:09:33,360 --> 01:09:36,840
Speaker 7: attacks on domestic refining infrastructure, it's increasingly actually been pushed

1536
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:40,640
Speaker 7: into a scenario of net imports. So the reason that

1537
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 7: they're banning exports is to kind of try and hold.

1538
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:45,679
Speaker 1: Back as much of that gas as possible.

1539
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:48,080
Speaker 7: The bigger concern was it would be if you started

1540
01:09:48,080 --> 01:09:50,960
Speaker 7: seeing Russia banning the export of diesel because Unlike gasling,

1541
01:09:51,000 --> 01:09:53,840
Speaker 7: where they're a minor export player, Diesel they're a major

1542
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:56,360
Speaker 7: export player, more like a million barrels a day versus

1543
01:09:56,400 --> 01:09:58,280
Speaker 7: let's say, gasing a one hundred thousand barrels a day.

1544
01:09:59,080 --> 01:10:01,919
Speaker 7: And in that scenario again, diesel in the middle distilts

1545
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:04,680
Speaker 7: the tightest area of the market that would you know,

1546
01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:08,040
Speaker 7: really really hurt in terms of those those refining margins

1547
01:10:08,040 --> 01:10:09,720
Speaker 7: and cracksmans and the prices you and I see at

1548
01:10:09,760 --> 01:10:10,120
Speaker 7: the pump.

1549
01:10:10,800 --> 01:10:12,240
Speaker 1: But one thing on Moscow, I just.

1550
01:10:12,439 --> 01:10:15,439
Speaker 7: I keep repeating this that Moscow is the single largest

1551
01:10:15,479 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 7: beneficiary of the Iran war, both in terms of an

1552
01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:22,519
Speaker 7: overall higher price environment, explicit removal of sanctions by the

1553
01:10:22,600 --> 01:10:25,599
Speaker 7: US Treasury against Russian and shockingly in this context even

1554
01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:27,400
Speaker 7: Iranian crude.

1555
01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 1: And I think all of.

1556
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:32,160
Speaker 7: The pressure that the White House had very successfully imposed

1557
01:10:32,160 --> 01:10:35,360
Speaker 7: on the Russian oil industry, you know over the past

1558
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:38,400
Speaker 7: you know, eight nine months, that was undone in a month,

1559
01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:40,720
Speaker 7: and I think we're back to square one. And I

1560
01:10:40,760 --> 01:10:42,760
Speaker 7: think the one rub to this is that the one

1561
01:10:42,800 --> 01:10:45,120
Speaker 7: person who knows this has been a boon and likely

1562
01:10:45,160 --> 01:10:47,640
Speaker 7: a windfall for Putin is Zelenski.

1563
01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:48,959
Speaker 1: And what we've seen.

1564
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:51,760
Speaker 7: Over the past coal of weeks is Ukrainian forces dramatically

1565
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 7: ramping up attacks against Russian export infrastructure. Last week Reuters

1566
01:10:56,600 --> 01:11:00,000
Speaker 7: had it at forty percent of Russian oil export infrastry

1567
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 7: sure was offline. Was the largest disruption to Russian supply

1568
01:11:04,760 --> 01:11:08,120
Speaker 7: in modern history, on top of the largest supply shock

1569
01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:10,120
Speaker 7: in the n oil market's entire history happening in the

1570
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:11,599
Speaker 7: golf just entirely separately.

1571
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:14,160
Speaker 1: So there's this pro cyclical element.

1572
01:11:14,200 --> 01:11:16,719
Speaker 7: Now that the higher oil prices go, the more pressure

1573
01:11:16,800 --> 01:11:18,960
Speaker 7: Ukraine is going to put on Russian exports, and that's

1574
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:21,560
Speaker 7: going to put prices higher and again rant pressure.

1575
01:11:21,200 --> 01:11:24,280
Speaker 3: For even more geopolitical spiral. My last question for you,

1576
01:11:24,360 --> 01:11:26,840
Speaker 3: man is let's put C three. I love this map

1577
01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 3: that you put out there. I believe it was made

1578
01:11:28,400 --> 01:11:32,840
Speaker 3: by JP Morgan, which shows the actual like you said,

1579
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:35,800
Speaker 3: where the air pocket, which is kind of the way

1580
01:11:35,800 --> 01:11:37,880
Speaker 3: that you could think about the supply loss is moving

1581
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:40,400
Speaker 3: through the world. So East Africa was already hit East

1582
01:11:40,400 --> 01:11:42,320
Speaker 3: age of this week. We're literally about to do an

1583
01:11:42,439 --> 01:11:45,280
Speaker 3: entire block about all of the global chaos and South

1584
01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:48,200
Speaker 3: Korean president being like I can't sleep at night. Europe

1585
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:50,720
Speaker 3: next week and you say North America two more weeks now.

1586
01:11:50,760 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 3: The Secretary Hegseth, took the podium this morning basically refused

1587
01:11:54,400 --> 01:11:56,120
Speaker 3: to give some sort of a timeline.

1588
01:11:56,120 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 1: The war is not going to end today, that's for sure.

1589
01:11:58,120 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 3: It's going to end sometime in the future, saying two

1590
01:12:00,520 --> 01:12:02,120
Speaker 3: weeks coming up on that.

1591
01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:03,120
Speaker 1: What does that look like?

1592
01:12:03,160 --> 01:12:05,120
Speaker 3: We're already at four dollars a gallon here in the

1593
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 3: US nationally, let's say two more weeks when that pocket

1594
01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:11,120
Speaker 3: hits us, how does that manifestor we're gonna have supply shortages?

1595
01:12:11,360 --> 01:12:13,479
Speaker 3: Are we going to be Australia with you know, petrol

1596
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:14,759
Speaker 3: stations that are closed.

1597
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:15,960
Speaker 1: What's that look like for US?

1598
01:12:16,920 --> 01:12:18,719
Speaker 7: So I think the United States, like I was saying earlier,

1599
01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:21,519
Speaker 7: is in a beneficial and kind of privileged position that

1600
01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 7: it likely won't immediately run into any major physical shortages.

1601
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:29,559
Speaker 7: But to your point of like US average gas prices

1602
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:32,559
Speaker 7: already back over four bucks a gallon, the price pressure

1603
01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:34,960
Speaker 7: is going to keep coming. So like that chart shows

1604
01:12:35,000 --> 01:12:36,680
Speaker 7: that that air pocket And just to get to give

1605
01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:39,439
Speaker 7: the logic of this, you know, before the war, you

1606
01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:41,840
Speaker 7: had tankers leaving the Gulf fully laiden with crude. They

1607
01:12:41,840 --> 01:12:43,120
Speaker 7: take up words of a month or a month and

1608
01:12:43,160 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 7: a half to get where they're going.

1609
01:12:44,960 --> 01:12:45,960
Speaker 1: You're not going to feel the.

1610
01:12:45,960 --> 01:12:47,800
Speaker 7: Loss of those supplies and the closure of the strait

1611
01:12:47,880 --> 01:12:52,559
Speaker 7: until that final tanker reaches your shores, behind which there's

1612
01:12:52,560 --> 01:12:53,200
Speaker 7: nothing but air.

1613
01:12:53,280 --> 01:12:54,120
Speaker 1: That's the air pocket.

1614
01:12:54,560 --> 01:12:57,080
Speaker 7: That air pocket is landing in Asia likely this week,

1615
01:12:57,400 --> 01:12:59,880
Speaker 7: Europe next week, in North America two weeks after. But

1616
01:13:00,040 --> 01:13:02,040
Speaker 7: if you look at that chart, North America also doesn't

1617
01:13:02,080 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 7: get that much oil from the golf anymore.

1618
01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:04,920
Speaker 1: It used to get a lot more.

1619
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:08,080
Speaker 7: Shell revolution in the and growth in Canadian production has

1620
01:13:08,200 --> 01:13:09,919
Speaker 7: largely displaced those barrels.

1621
01:13:10,360 --> 01:13:12,920
Speaker 1: But we got we end.

1622
01:13:12,880 --> 01:13:14,559
Speaker 7: Up back in the situation that Nancy's is still an

1623
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:17,400
Speaker 7: importer of or is still an importer of various fuels

1624
01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 7: on the coasts and of crude oil in the Golf

1625
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:23,760
Speaker 7: because of quality issues. Those barrels that are imported are

1626
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:27,280
Speaker 7: going to have furious demand and competition for them already,

1627
01:13:27,680 --> 01:13:31,840
Speaker 7: and as as Asia starts drawing down stalks because that

1628
01:13:31,880 --> 01:13:34,439
Speaker 7: air pocket has arrived, and then Europe next week, that's

1629
01:13:34,479 --> 01:13:35,439
Speaker 7: when you're gonna see.

1630
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:36,679
Speaker 1: Mounting and ever more pressure.

1631
01:13:36,680 --> 01:13:38,800
Speaker 7: And one thing we keep talking about is this disconnect

1632
01:13:39,120 --> 01:13:42,800
Speaker 7: between paper or financial futures and crude and the physical

1633
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:46,720
Speaker 7: market underlying these industries that has remained fairly wide. When

1634
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:50,200
Speaker 7: that air pocket lands, it's gonna kind of wedge those

1635
01:13:50,200 --> 01:13:52,479
Speaker 7: things together. We're gonna see way more of that physical

1636
01:13:52,520 --> 01:13:54,679
Speaker 7: pressure manifest in the prices that we see on our screen.

1637
01:13:54,920 --> 01:13:56,960
Speaker 2: And Rory, if you could best, you can sort of

1638
01:13:56,960 --> 01:13:59,479
Speaker 2: bottled line it for consumers who are listening, like, what

1639
01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:02,200
Speaker 2: should there our expectations be over the coming weeks at

1640
01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:03,080
Speaker 2: what they're going to pay at the.

1641
01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:06,639
Speaker 7: Pump, It's going to be a very very expensive driving season,

1642
01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:09,519
Speaker 7: like you know, easily the most expensive driving season since

1643
01:14:09,560 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 7: twenty twenty two. And if this continues through April and further,

1644
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:17,040
Speaker 7: we will likely we will very very likely see all

1645
01:14:17,040 --> 01:14:20,200
Speaker 7: time high pump prices and surely all time high diesel

1646
01:14:20,200 --> 01:14:21,160
Speaker 7: prices in the United States.

1647
01:14:22,000 --> 01:14:24,960
Speaker 3: Great, all right, well, yeah ahead, and sorry good weather,

1648
01:14:25,000 --> 01:14:29,280
Speaker 3: but we trust you. And you are not a sensational person.

1649
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:31,439
Speaker 3: That's one of the reasons I really enjoy speaking with you.

1650
01:14:31,479 --> 01:14:31,919
Speaker 1: Everybody.

1651
01:14:31,960 --> 01:14:33,120
Speaker 4: He is a sensational person.

1652
01:14:33,160 --> 01:14:35,559
Speaker 1: But yeah, sorry, list.

1653
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:40,760
Speaker 3: He's not what's the term permeable, You're not a permeable

1654
01:14:41,280 --> 01:14:42,200
Speaker 3: in the oil space.

1655
01:14:42,520 --> 01:14:45,000
Speaker 1: Everybody, go follow Rory and subscribe to yourself.

1656
01:14:45,080 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 3: Sack.

1657
01:14:45,280 --> 01:14:47,320
Speaker 1: Thanks man, thank you for joining us, thanks for having

1658
01:14:47,320 --> 01:14:47,479
Speaker 1: me