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Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

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Speaker 1: We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

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Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

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Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

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Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

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Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

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Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about, especially if

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Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Hello Thearin, Welcome to another

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Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Podcast. It is the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. There are different oh I would call them.

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Speaker 1: We used to call them writing crutches back in the

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Speaker 1: day that the end of the year brings many a journalist,

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Speaker 1: you can some times come up with a listicle. I

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Speaker 1: think Nate Silver did one, the fifty one most important

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Speaker 1: you know political moments of the twenty first century ranked

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Speaker 1: an interesting exercise, if and nothing else, it's a good

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Speaker 1: way for certain people under the age of say thirty

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Speaker 1: five to look at that list and ask themselves, Huh,

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Speaker 1: what don't I know about? It? Is the older you get,

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Speaker 1: the more useless those lists feel. I say that with

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Speaker 1: no disrespect. I think the work Nate put into it

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Speaker 1: was pretty good. But you do all sorts of We

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Speaker 1: have all sorts of writing crutches, listicles, or are huge. One. Look,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to do one for New Year's resolutions for

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Speaker 1: various people for my sub stack that you can go find.

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Speaker 1: And that's another type of end of the year writing

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Speaker 1: crutch Well, one of the end of the year things

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Speaker 1: that I have come to do ever since I started

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Speaker 1: doing a podcast, and those of you, I know some

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Speaker 1: of you have been with me ever since I started

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Speaker 1: one as Meet the Press host. First I called it

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Speaker 1: nineteen forty seven. That was our way, remember the early

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Speaker 1: days of podcasts. She wanted to come up with a

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Speaker 1: with a name that you that once people understood the

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Speaker 1: connection the name had to what you were trying to say.

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Speaker 1: It was a really clever name. Well, I called it

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Speaker 1: nineteen forty seven because that was the year Meet the

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Speaker 1: Press was born, and I thought, oh, what a great way. Well,

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Speaker 1: I always had to explain what the hell nineteen forty

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Speaker 1: seven was, and it happened to also be the same

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Speaker 1: year my mother was born. So she never liked being

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Speaker 1: reminded all the time of how old she was. So

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Speaker 1: that's when a producer friend, a producer, longtime producer of

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Speaker 1: mine and friend of mine, said, why don't you rename

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Speaker 1: it and just call it the toodcast thing. You know,

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Speaker 1: your name rhymes with podcasts, so just use it, lean

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Speaker 1: into it, be a middle aged dad. Dad punted up,

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Speaker 1: and just do it. And so I went and called

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Speaker 1: it the Chuck Podcast, even while I was at NBC

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Speaker 1: and my friends at NBC when decided to leave, they

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Speaker 1: acknowledged that they couldn't find somebody else to do the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. So I don't own all my archives for

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Speaker 1: those of the NBC days. I do own my name, image,

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Speaker 1: and likeness as we now call it, thanks to college sports.

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Speaker 1: But I've had one consistent thing and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: bring it back my first year of being an independently

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Speaker 1: run and own Chuck podcast, and that is my what

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Speaker 1: If series, their alternative history. I first got obsessed with

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Speaker 1: what If. Just to give you a little bit of

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Speaker 1: the backstory here for those of you that are new

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Speaker 1: to this, during the when looking back at the two

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Speaker 1: thousand election stalemate, right, they sort of the election that

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Speaker 1: sort of began polarization. Right before two thousand, we didn't

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Speaker 1: think of ourselves as living in red states or blue states.

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Speaker 1: We lived in the United States. Yes, there were swing

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Speaker 1: states and there were states that weren't swing states, but

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Speaker 1: we weren't really living in this red America or blue

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Speaker 1: America until the two thousand election. Well, one of the

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Speaker 1: more fascinating aspects of the two thousand election that I

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Speaker 1: loved to create an easter eggon was one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons why the Supreme Court was able to stop the

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Speaker 1: count is because the secretary of State in the state

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Speaker 1: of Florida certified the election, and the election being certified

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Speaker 1: as Bush being the winner basically gave the Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: the exit ramp to stop the count. Well, back then,

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida elected their secretaries of state. For

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Speaker 1: those of you who are political junkies, know that the

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Speaker 1: secretary of State at the time with Caston Harris Well,

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Speaker 1: and she only became Secretary of State due to a fascinating,

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Speaker 1: bizarre and not necessarily bizarre, but a fascinating set of

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Speaker 1: circumstances that took place in nineteen ninety eight. In nineteen

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Speaker 1: ninety eight, the incumbent Republican Secretary State was a woman

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Speaker 1: named Sandra Mortham. She was embroiled in this sort of

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest with you, it was a run

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Speaker 1: in the mail scandal for a secretary of state. Why

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Speaker 1: do I call it run in the mill because there

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Speaker 1: had been one in Illinois, there had been one and

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Speaker 1: I think in Louisiana. Because in many states the secretary

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Speaker 1: of State hands out a lot of licenses, right, they

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Speaker 1: sort of run that aspect. And there's been quite a

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Speaker 1: few of these agencies in different states who have been

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Speaker 1: caught taking money under the table in exchange for making

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Speaker 1: sure somebody gets their license, their employer license to you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe be it, you know, run a truck driver, a

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Speaker 1: truck driving depot or something like that, all these different

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Speaker 1: things that you do need state certification for. And this

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Speaker 1: was That's what I mean when I say it was

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Speaker 1: run in the mill. It was some sort of quid

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Speaker 1: pro quo sort of blew up, but it certainly got

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Speaker 1: enough traction that it was making Sandra Mortham an un

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Speaker 1: pop She was a Secretary State. It seemed like forever,

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Speaker 1: and it was one of those you could just you

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Speaker 1: could smell the staleness on her she was going to

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Speaker 1: lose a general election. Well, Florida Republicans do this too,

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Speaker 1: so they at the last minute found a primary challenger,

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Speaker 1: the daughter of a wealthy donor over the years, the

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Speaker 1: granddaughter of the same Ben Hill Griffith that it puts

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Speaker 1: his name on the University of Florida football stadium for

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Speaker 1: the Gators, and Catherine Harris primarieser Win's the primary wins

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Speaker 1: the general. Rest is history. Well, had Catherine Harris not

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Speaker 1: run and Sandra Mortham had been the nominee, she does

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Speaker 1: not win that general election. And there's a Democratic Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State, and if the election had never been certified,

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court never stops the count, and then the

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Speaker 1: recount goes in full. Now Bush may end up winning.

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Speaker 1: There's never been enough evidence. You know, the biggest problem

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Speaker 1: the Gore of Partisans had back then is the biggest

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Speaker 1: loss of vote under vote was due to this bizarre

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Speaker 1: butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County that made people who

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Speaker 1: thought they were voting for Gore end up voting for

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Speaker 1: Pat Buchanan. And there's there's a there's certainly there's certainly

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Speaker 1: statistical evidence circumstantial evidence to say, geez, in this one

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Speaker 1: area of you can and overperforms where he performed everywhere else.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't make a lot of sense. And of course

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Speaker 1: the design of the crazy butterfly ballot. But the point

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Speaker 1: is we'll never know because we never did get the

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Speaker 1: full recount. And oh, by the way, the Gore strategy

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Speaker 1: of just asking for recounts in the blue counties is

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Speaker 1: to this day one of the dumbest asks anybody in

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Speaker 1: the business of recounts has ever made. It was just

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Speaker 1: a strategic mistake and handed all the talking points over you.

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Speaker 1: If you want to win a recount, you have to

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Speaker 1: be on the side of count all the votes. The

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Speaker 1: minute you're not on the side of count all the votes,

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Speaker 1: you're not going to win the politics of a recount,

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Speaker 1: because yes, that's shit matters, not just the facts. You've

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Speaker 1: got to have the spin. So I've always wondered it's

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite it's a reminder and in fact,

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Speaker 1: you can do this with history, right. You know, a

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Speaker 1: butterfly flapsuit swings, YadA, YadA, YadA. Suddenly you know turtles

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Speaker 1: can mate with each other that were once male and female.

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Speaker 1: Whatever it is, My point is it is the whole

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Speaker 1: idea of the butterfly effect. And there's butterfly's effects all

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Speaker 1: the time in life, our own lives, butterfly effects in history.

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Speaker 1: And it was the reason I liked I got obsessed

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Speaker 1: with that is that I thought it was, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: we can do this with a lot of historical events.

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Speaker 1: So I've been doing this over the years. You know,

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Speaker 1: what if Bill Clinton had resigned in nineteen ninety eight,

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Speaker 1: when there there was so much pressure for him during

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Speaker 1: the Lewinsky scandal to do just that avoid the impeachment,

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Speaker 1: This is terrible for the party. It's terrible for the country.

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Speaker 1: You know, you could be putting that. You know, with

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Speaker 1: the president as compromised dealing with a scandal, is he

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Speaker 1: going to be thinking straight? And you know, to this day,

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Speaker 1: there's some questions about whether we didn't get bin Laden

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Speaker 1: because we couldn't focus the country on the threat of

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Speaker 1: bin Laden, and we did come close. I remember there

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Speaker 1: were some missile strikes that Clinton had ordered, and Republicans

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Speaker 1: criticized him for trying to wag the dog, trying to

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Speaker 1: distract from the Lewinsky scandal. No, he actually was trying

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Speaker 1: to prevent nine to eleven as it turned out, but

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Speaker 1: we don't know this now, right, so what would that

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Speaker 1: have been? And so the point is is that what

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Speaker 1: if Hillary Clinton had run in two thousand and four?

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Speaker 1: Well I did a what if on that and so

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Speaker 1: hence the series was born. You know, look, there's people

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Speaker 1: that have done the what if on JFK better than me.

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Speaker 1: Stephen King wrote a whole book called eleven twenty two

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Speaker 1: sixty three that basically does that. Yes, that has been

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Speaker 1: a model for me. I loved that book book better

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Speaker 1: than the TV show, though the TV show not half bad.

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Speaker 1: This series James Franco stars in that one definitely worth

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Speaker 1: checking out if you haven't done it. In fact, I

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Speaker 1: think I saw Netflix is. It was originally a Hulu series,

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Speaker 1: but I think Netflix is about to promote it. So

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of people are going to rediscover this

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Speaker 1: TV show and go, hey, did you see the new

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Speaker 1: show on Netflix? And it's like it was on Hulu

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Speaker 1: a decade ago, So you know, you go through it

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Speaker 1: and the thing is the beauty is every year. Even

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Speaker 1: did one on what if John McCain had one in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight and what if the Republicans had

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Speaker 1: been dealing with the fallout right. That one led me

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Speaker 1: down the road to Occupy Wall Street becomes the Tea Party,

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Speaker 1: but it's the Tea Party of the left, and et cetera.

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Speaker 1: The point is is that this, to me is sometimes

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Speaker 1: some of the best ways to teach history are to

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Speaker 1: actually go through alternative scenarios, so you can understand why

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Speaker 1: things happened based on how things could have been. So

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Speaker 1: which leads me to this year's series of what ifs.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to do just two episodes of them, but

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Speaker 1: one of them, this one, is actually two what ifs

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Speaker 1: in one because in some ways they're totally interconnected. It's

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Speaker 1: a you might be surprised, it's a what if involving

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. By the way, I've done a ton of

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Speaker 1: these what if involving Donald Trump over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years. As you might imagine, we did a what

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Speaker 1: if Donald Trump had been the Reform Party now many

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Speaker 1: in two thousand when he flirted with running for president.

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Speaker 1: I did a what if Donald Trump had bought the

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills? He doesn't run for president if he buys

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Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. Yes, I did that one as well.

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Speaker 1: So I've done a variety of what ifs on Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: including the twenty sixteen what ifs, But this year when

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Speaker 1: I asked for suggestion, there was an overwhelming amount of

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Speaker 1: suggestions for one what if, and it's the one that's

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Speaker 1: staring us all in the face as we deal with

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Speaker 1: the Trump second term, which is simply what if Trump

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Speaker 1: had won in twenty twenty, or alternatively, what if Trump

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Speaker 1: had accepted his defeat in a normal way, the way

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Speaker 1: pretty much every other losing candidate for president had accepted

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Speaker 1: defeat in the modern era. So the point is is

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Speaker 1: that I did We're going to tackle sort of both

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Speaker 1: at the same time, and I think by doing it

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Speaker 1: this way and here I'm not here, I want to

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Speaker 1: sort of explain what the what if series is meant

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Speaker 1: to do and what it's not meant to do. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to sit here and be definitive that if

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Speaker 1: this doesn't happen, this would have happened. What this is

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Speaker 1: designed to do is to sort of ask a certain

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Speaker 1: set of questions that, Okay, we ended up taking this

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Speaker 1: fork in the road, what are the potential scenarios of

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Speaker 1: what happened if we took this fork in the road,

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Speaker 1: And so I just wanted to give a little bit

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Speaker 1: of that preview, a little bit of that origin story

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Speaker 1: for those of you that have not been involved, but

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Speaker 1: also to let you understand how I'm approaching this, and

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Speaker 1: you'll see that the minute you ask, you know, the

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Speaker 1: minute you start down this road, you realize, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: there are fifty other things that are impacted once you

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Speaker 1: go down this road. Exactly. This is what I think

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Speaker 1: this series can do best and what it always has

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Speaker 1: done well, which sort of provides sort of, oh, you know,

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Speaker 1: this is why these things matter because it triggers nineteen

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Speaker 1: other derivative events that does thent happen if event you know,

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Speaker 1: if if if you know, essentially event zero, right, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't happen first. Okay, So so let's get started. The twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty election is certainly going to be seen as I

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Speaker 1: still think the twenty sixteen election is one of the

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Speaker 1: is a more important hinge moment in modern political history

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Speaker 1: than the twenty twenty election. But somehow the twenty twenty election, now,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the question is, yeah, I don't

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Speaker 1: know of the three elections two thousand, twenty sixteen, and

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty, how you order them now? It was a

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Speaker 1: no brainer to me that two thousand was one of

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Speaker 1: those incredible hinge moments, right, you know, a weird butterfly

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Speaker 1: ballot is created in South Florida, Palm Beach County, YadA, YadA, YadA,

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Speaker 1: hunt a million iraqis die. You know, it still seems

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Speaker 1: to be I think a bigger hinge moment than twenty

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Speaker 1: sixteen Trump or what we got now, which is twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty election denying Trump, right, but had What's ironic about

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty election now is there are two different

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Speaker 1: scenarios that would have made it a mundane and just

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Speaker 1: sort of another election where we would have moved on now, right,

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Speaker 1: which is either Trump wins twenty twenty, wins reelection and

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Speaker 1: we're going to go through this. It's an entirely different

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. I think, at least at the beginning of

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Speaker 1: his term we'll discuss or there's the Donald Trump that decides, yeah,

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Speaker 1: one term was enough, I'm out, I'm done with politics,

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Speaker 1: and then the beginning of the next phase of the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party kicks him. So we're going to try to

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Speaker 1: dabble them both. So we're gonna said, so we're going

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Speaker 1: to ask sort of two connected questions, what if Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump had lost and accepted it? And what if Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump had won? And how would he have governed a

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Speaker 1: second term? And what would the two parties look like today?

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Speaker 1: Because both universes tell us something important about the republic

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Speaker 1: itself in this moment, and once again a reminder this

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Speaker 1: what if? This is not about a fantasy. Okay, it's

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Speaker 1: not proving anything about whether you're right, whether the politics

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Speaker 1: of the left or right is right. It's just simply

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Speaker 1: identifying these important moments. Okay. So you won't get definitive answers.

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Speaker 1: You're going to have a lot of open questions, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to give you various plausible paths, and I

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Speaker 1: hope that, frankly, we have a continual dialogue about this

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Speaker 1: as we go forward. But I do think it helps

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Speaker 1: you understand the history itself. It's sponsorship time. But you

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Speaker 1: know what, it's really great when you get a sponsor

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Speaker 1: that you already use and guess what. Quint's is something

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Speaker 1: do we go to Quint's Because it's a It's a

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Speaker 1: without the really expensive prices. And one of the things

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Speaker 1: I've been going through is I've transitioned from being mister

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Speaker 1: cot and ty guy to wanting a little more casual

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Speaker 1: but to look nice doing it. Is I've become mister

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Speaker 1: quarterzip guy. Well guess what. Guess who's got amazing amounts

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Speaker 1: bucks or less. Italian wool coats that look and feel

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Speaker 1: like designer the stuff. I'll be honest, right, you look

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Speaker 1: at it online, you think, okay, is this really as

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Speaker 1: nice as it looks? Well, when I got it, I

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Speaker 1: going to end up making sure I take it to

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Speaker 1: my dry cleaner so I don't screw it up when

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Speaker 1: I clean it. But I've been quite impressed. In Hey,

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the hinge moment. It's November twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Most important decision that Trump presidency didn't happen in office.

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Speaker 1: It happened after the votes were counted. At that moment,

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Speaker 1: there were three futures that were possible. Trump loses and

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Speaker 1: refuses to accept it. That's the world we live in,

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Speaker 1: and that's the world we live in right now. Okay,

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Speaker 1: when you think about the various timelines, there's Trump loses

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Speaker 1: and accepts it, right that's a different world that we

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Speaker 1: would have lived in. And then there's Trump wins reelection.

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Speaker 1: Now I've done the other what if, which is what

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Speaker 1: if Mitch McConnell votes to convict Donald Trump. You can

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Speaker 1: go back into the archives. It's the NBC archives. You

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Speaker 1: can listen to that one. Yes, I've gone down that

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Speaker 1: path as well. So we know what one path produce.

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Speaker 1: The question is what did the others remove from the

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Speaker 1: timeline and what replaced them. So let's start with Trump

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Speaker 1: loses but accepts it. It's a sort of normal election.

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Speaker 1: Trump loses narrowly, He complains, He sulks a little bit,

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Speaker 1: you know, he does what most normal candidates do, hint

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Speaker 1: a little bit at unfair. You know, all these states

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Speaker 1: got to change their rules. Everybody got a ballot in hand.

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Speaker 1: But after twenty four hours, he gets over it and

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Speaker 1: he leaves. So what disappears immediately? Right, there's no stop.

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Speaker 1: The steel movement doesn't become a mass phenomena. We never

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Speaker 1: have the infamous four seasons press conference. We don't have

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Speaker 1: the fake electors. We don't have you know, these weirdly

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Speaker 1: worded question, Well, is Joe Biden? Was he elected? Farren square, Well,

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Speaker 1: he's the certified president or whatever it was that the

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Speaker 1: various wordings people we'd use, and of course there's no

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Speaker 1: loyalty tests. And of course what we have is there's

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Speaker 1: no January six. January six never happens. Right, Congress never

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Speaker 1: experiences this physical trauma. There are no barricaded chambers, there's

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Speaker 1: no evacuated lawmakers, no members fearing for their lives. And

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Speaker 1: when institutions aren't traumatized, then they are going to behave differently,

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Speaker 1: and you would have had a more just sort of

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Speaker 1: normal everything normal opposition party and going okay, how do

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Speaker 1: we move on? Normal? This? Normal that? And Trump is

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Speaker 1: still Trump, but he's a grievanced ex president. He may

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Speaker 1: not be a commander of a movement anymore. Right, He's

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Speaker 1: still well would probably be the most quotable president. First

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Speaker 1: of all, here's another thing. He is no longer deplatformed

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Speaker 1: from Twitter and Facebook. Right, there's no rising up demand

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Speaker 1: to cancel him and saying he's a threat to national security.

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Speaker 1: You can't platform him. He is he is calling essentially

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Speaker 1: for the overthrow of the government. Look, I think the

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Speaker 1: platforming him was. You know, limiting speech is never the

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Speaker 1: right answer. Okay, I just think, ultimately, go find another

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Speaker 1: path before you make the decision to limit speech. I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying there isn't a time for that, but you

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Speaker 1: should always think look for a better solution than to

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Speaker 1: a limit speech if you're a private organization. But ultimately,

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Speaker 1: while he would try, I think to see if he

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Speaker 1: could keep control of the party, it wouldn't have the

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Speaker 1: same stickiness. You know, his folks would move on. Frankly,

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Speaker 1: think Al Gore twenty oh one. Right, Al Gore had

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Speaker 1: a little bit of oxygen in the first sort of

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Speaker 1: three to four months of the Bush presidency. Nine to

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Speaker 1: eleven obviously completely sort of wiped any sort of buyer's

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Speaker 1: remorse about Bush. There was a rally around the flag effect,

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Speaker 1: and the whole Gore Bush thing faded even further. But

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Speaker 1: you know Gore, you know, I think we could have

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Speaker 1: a debate about whether nine to eleven basically ended Gore's

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Speaker 1: ability to sort of be the president in exile after

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Speaker 1: a disputed election like that. But one could argue, you know,

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Speaker 1: just like with you know, the Democratic Party got behind

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Speaker 1: Gore because he was the nominee. There was never a

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Speaker 1: love affair with Gore, and I think frankly, pre January sixth,

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Speaker 1: there wasn't this. You know, he had a base, but

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Speaker 1: it wasn't as devoted a following, perhaps would not have

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Speaker 1: looked as devoted of a following if there's no January

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Speaker 1: six But you know, because what did we learn in

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Speaker 1: the actual timeline we lived in? Trump's grip on the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party titaned because he lost and refused to accept

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Speaker 1: it his whole never back down aspect. So in some ways,

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Speaker 1: and this is maybe something he an insight he understood,

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Speaker 1: which is never the minute you sort of admit to losing,

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Speaker 1: then you tell your supporters you can walk away. But

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Speaker 1: by never admitting losing, he he essentially was telling his

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Speaker 1: supporters to stand maybe to stand down, but to also

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Speaker 1: stand by. So Donald Trump, without January sixth, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: would out stop to steal is a fading leader of

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party. He would still command a Lincoln Day dinner.

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Speaker 1: He would still sell out any sort of fundraiser that

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Speaker 1: you were trying to do, whether it was in Des Moines, Iowa, Columbia,

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Speaker 1: South Carolina, Manchester, New Hampshire, you named the sort of

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Speaker 1: you know, the presidential hotspot would still be seen as

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Speaker 1: somebody would bring in, but you'd also have a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of other Republicans starting to maneuver themselves to be

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Speaker 1: leader of the party, and you'd start to hear people,

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Speaker 1: we need to look forward, not backward, and it would

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Speaker 1: all have a little more juice, would have a little

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Speaker 1: more traction. You'd start to see people more interested in

429
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 1: new faces, not Donald trumpet because Donald Trump was a loser, right,

430
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: and party drops would drop him like that. Now, what

431
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: does the Biden presidency look like without January six Well,

432
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 1: number one, he enters the office without the democracy in

433
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: crisis mandate, right, he got elected because of COVID. Okay,

434
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:28,439
Speaker 1: the the you know, there's no bigger sort of mistaken idea.

435
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 1: And then January sixth convinced the Biden team that they

436
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: had a mandate on something that for whatever reason, arguably

437
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: January fifth of the both Georgia senators the minute they

438
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: win control of the Senate. So suddenly they have the Senate,

439
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: the House, and the presidency. They got the try uh

440
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: you know, they got they got the they got all

441
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: three legs of the governing stool of Washington in their control.

442
00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:01,679
Speaker 1: They get the trifecta. And arguably it only happens because

443
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: of Trump's inability to accept defeat. Right without that is

444
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: there do Democrats win both of those Georgia runoffs without

445
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: sort of Trump, you know, complaining about other Republicans and

446
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: complaining that nobody was helping them. And literally there was

447
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 1: a rally for those Georgia setic candidates that stopped being

448
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: about Purdue and Laffler and instead was all about his grievances.

449
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: I mean, it couldn't have been messaged worse at the end.

450
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 1: But if you don't have any of that, then there's

451
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: a Republican Senate. Joe Biden comes into office with a

452
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: Republican Senate, and you you're immediately going to have a

453
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: different type of cabinet that you're going to nominate because

454
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: you've got to get them confirmed. You're going to have

455
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: a different agenda that you're going to be focused on,

456
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 1: maybe those two thousand dollars checks or seven hundred and

457
00:27:55,440 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 1: fifty dollars checks. Right, you know, the entire atmosphere is different. Right,

458
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: This is why this is such an important sort of

459
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: why this is really two what ifs in one. Right, yes,

460
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: there's and we're going to get to the part of

461
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 1: Trump and one, but him him not accepting defeat just

462
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: absolutely changes the trajectory of the Biden presidency in ways

463
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: Joe Biden himself on November tenth of that year had

464
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 1: no focus and no agenda, you know, sort of had

465
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: not envisioned the path he was about to take come

466
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: January twentieth. Right, So in that sense, it absolutely, in

467
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: some ways changes the Biden presidency more than any of

468
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: us fully appreciate, because he has to govern as a

469
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: conventional president. He's going to have to deal with pandemic exhaustion. Yes,

470
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: there'll be the inflation risk, but again, I'll have a

471
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: Republican Senate. He'll have to minimize what he can get done.

472
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: And it will make Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins probably

473
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: a lot more powerful than Kirsten Cinema and Joe Manchin.

474
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: And it probably means there's two or three other Republicans

475
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: that are part of this circle, maybe Dan Sullivan, maybe

476
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: Todd Young. You know that there's a governing wing of

477
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: the Republican Party that suddenly wants to work with a

478
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: Joe Biden that wants to be a very center left presidency, which, again,

479
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: with a Republican Senate, he'd have been boxed into being

480
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 1: a center left president because that would have you know,

481
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: it's about what you can get done. But instead, of

482
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: course he is to become the symbolic defender of the

483
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 1: republic and everything is this save democracy. And it led

484
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: to right less tolerance for executive overreach, less patients from

485
00:29:55,080 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: the base, and a lot more earlier scrutiny. So I

486
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: actually don't know if it would have been a very

487
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: successful president, because I think the base would be frustrated

488
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: that he was calibrating his presidency more towards the center,

489
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 1: more towards trying to work with abram If you think

490
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: you were frustrated with Joe Biden trying to work with

491
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: a Democratic Senate, you'd have been just as frustrated, if

492
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: not ten times ten, with his obsession with trying to

493
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: work with Republicans in the Senate. And it's possible it

494
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: would have been Lucy in the football right. There's no

495
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: doubt that he thought he would have deals and it

496
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: would be you know, but maybe then he leads with

497
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:41,239
Speaker 1: infrastructure in a different way. He focuses on hurrying up

498
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: and getting the shots out the door, which was the

499
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: number one reason he was elected in the first place.

500
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: He's still going to be dealing with inflation. He's still

501
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: going to be dealing and put it. Remember think about

502
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: that inflation moment a minute, because it's going to come

503
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:02,479
Speaker 1: back to a conversation. And I will tell you this.

504
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: I think the twenty two midterms are a complete and

505
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:09,239
Speaker 1: utter disaster for him. Afghanistan still likely happens in a

506
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 1: very not so good place. Biden probably starts off less popular,

507
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: you know, Biden. The honeymoon for Biden improved because of

508
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: January sixth. People were so sort of fraught about it

509
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: that there was there was a mini rally around the

510
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: flag aspect to Biden coming into office, and there was

511
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,959
Speaker 1: a Okay, please turn the page. Let's you know, you know,

512
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: and instead remember he is to start his presidency with

513
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: an impeachment trial. By the way, that doesn't happen, and

514
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: if you're not, you don't have He loses half of

515
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: his first one hundred days because the United States Senate

516
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: has the former president on trial. That is a you know,

517
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: that is a total when you think about how much

518
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: political capital a newly elected president has at the beginning

519
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: of his term and you can't use it, so you know,

520
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: it is it is. It's funny. When I was going

521
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 1: through this exercise, I was. You know, I kept getting

522
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 1: mired in this moment because it is the more you

523
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: think about it, the more you realize how much the

524
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: Biden presidency was colored by January six and how much

525
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's mindset was colored by January sixth, And

526
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: in some ways it both galvanized them and it may

527
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: be why they did better than expected in twenty two,

528
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: but it weirdly distracted the party from sort of being

529
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 1: focused on on keeping the main thing, the main thing,

530
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: which is just focus on helping people get their lives

531
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: back to normal, which is all most Americans were looking

532
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 1: for in that post COVID mindset, and that post COVID

533
00:32:56,360 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: atmosphere ironically having less you know, coming in you know,

534
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: those Georgia runoffs January sixth. It weirdly, it raised expectations

535
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 1: for Biden, it raised expectations for the Democratic base, and

536
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: it became this almost pugilistic mindset. Let's you know, let's

537
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: get everything we can get now, this is the moment.

538
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 1: Republicans are on the run. Trump's a fraud and oh,

539
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: by the way, let's make sure Trump never happens again

540
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: and prosecute him to the hill. Right, None of that happened.

541
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: It's a it's it's very much a more conventional presidency.

542
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 1: Maybe it looks by the way, it may still be

543
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: a one term presidency because I don't think Biden ages

544
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: slower because you know, you know, the stress of the

545
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 1: presidency is the stress of the presidency, so it's going

546
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 1: to aid you just as quickly, so that part doesn't happen,

547
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 1: and he's still going to pay a price for inflation.

548
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: And it's likely the mid ters go worse for Biden

549
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: without sort of the ghost of Trump, right, because Trump

550
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 1: was you know, ended up being an overhang to the

551
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 1: politics of twenty twenty two, right, impacting the Pennsylvania governor's

552
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: race the most, where you had one of his, one

553
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,240
Speaker 1: of his super acolytes end up with a Republican nomination

554
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: for governor, allowing Joshapiro to just walk in. Or the

555
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 1: whole doctor Oz situation. I think you know, McCormick wins

556
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: that Senate seat against Fetterman the first time Doctor Oz,

557
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: doesn't We know that now for a fact, the Georgia situation, right,

558
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 1: we can keep going down the line. You have a

559
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: better candidate against Rafaeld Warnock, Herscha Walker almost won imagine

560
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: just what a conventional Republican would have done against Warnock,

561
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: maybe wins without having to deal with a runoff. So

562
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 1: all of that I think means that Biden has a

563
00:34:52,800 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: more conventional presidency. It is probably doesn't you know, I

564
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: don't think it changes his one term. I don't think

565
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 1: it changes the perception because this economy in some ways,

566
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: because it was COVID driven, I don't think you I

567
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: don't think anything changes on that front. Nothing changes on Afghanistan.

568
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: I mean Trump was going to do the same thing.

569
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a minute. I think the

570
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: only thing, and this is going to come up in

571
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: part two of this what if, is the Ukraine situation.

572
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: And I do think people underestimate how much Biden, how

573
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,879
Speaker 1: much Biden was consumed by that. And I still think,

574
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 1: no matter what that happens, and he still gets consumed

575
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: by that, that's that's that's sort of his first You know, Ultimately,

576
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: whatever job you have, you lean into the part you

577
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 1: feel the most comfortable in as an expert. And when

578
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 1: it comes to domestic policy versus foreign policy, Biden was

579
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: always considered himself more of a foreign policy kind of guy.

580
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: So it is I think the the impact on the

581
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 1: Biden presidency is what is the underrated story of part

582
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 1: one of this what if? So, Look, I think a

583
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 1: bad mid term, by the way, also accelerates the you

584
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: will you would have Democrats announcing challenges to Biden multiple

585
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 1: because it would have been an assumption that bad midterm

586
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 1: plus his age, he can't run for reelection. And I

587
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: actually think there's real momentum to push him out. There's

588
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 1: no threat of Trump on the other side. There's a

589
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 1: big primary happening on the Republican side of things under

590
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: that scenario, because do I think Trump still wants to run?

591
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 1: Maybe right, you know, but we don't know how much

592
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 1: the lawsuits themselves motivated him to run. And without the litigation,

593
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 1: you know, does he end up running? You know, does

594
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: he end up having all of this? So there's you know,

595
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: there's also a mini what if he and what actually

596
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: happened is what if ron de Santis had not waited

597
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 1: till May to announce. I also have my theories on that. So,

598
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: but ultimately I think the the the part one of

599
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 1: this what if, the huge impact, the giant impact more

600
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 1: so than anything else, is on that. And oh, by

601
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:26,240
Speaker 1: the way, it also means that because there's a Republican Senate,

602
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: we don't have my guess is the border. Let's just

603
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: say there's not handcuffs on Ali may Orcus and what

604
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: he can do at DHS, and he runs DHS a

605
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 1: lot more like Jay Johnson that he and j Johnson

606
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: operated under in the second term of Obama than what

607
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:52,439
Speaker 1: we saw in the first term of Biden. Maybe that's

608
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: a bit of wishful thinking on my part. I will,

609
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: I will, but I think that is a stronger possibility

610
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: that dude just less of a progressive love fest inside

611
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: that west wing right. I mean, the west wing was

612
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: absolutely couldn't have been further to the left than what

613
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: Joe Biden had run as I mean, it just you know,

614
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: and I think the more and more Democrats are acknowledging

615
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: this that the most surprising aspect of the Biden presidency

616
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 1: was how and it was the most surprising fact of

617
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 1: Ron Klaim being chief of staff was how much the

618
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 1: progressive left had more impact on the agenda than anybody

619
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,840
Speaker 1: would have expected from a Joe Biden presidency. You've got

620
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 1: a staff that Elizabeth Warren presidency would have put in,

621
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: not the one that I think voters thought they were

622
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 1: going to be getting necessarily with Joe Biden. All right,

623
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 1: So there you go. In some ways, probably Biden looks

624
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 1: weaker sooner in this scenario. I think that's fair to say.

625
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 1: And I think the Democratic Party is more usiastic about

626
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 1: moving on from him and less worried about that situation,

627
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 1: because you know, Biden really did sort of paralyze the

628
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 1: party a little bit because the threat of Trump, the

629
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,240
Speaker 1: threat of democracy being on the line. There was a

630
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 1: anybody hinting at biden weakness was not being a patriot

631
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 1: right In some ways, that fear of looking looking like

632
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 1: you were helping Trump somehow by undermining Biden, I don't

633
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 1: think would have been there. So it means we don't

634
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: get the Dean Phillips candidacy, because there's plenty of Democrats

635
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 1: already running in any you know, then Dean Phillips maybe

636
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: just endorses. He becomes one of the first members of

637
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 1: Congress to endorse somebody run against him, and who knows,

638
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 1: I may be doing our what if here in four

639
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: years going? You know, if Gavin Newsom had run in

640
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 1: twenty four and challenged Biden in a primary, he actually

641
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: might have had a better shot at the presidency in

642
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 1: twenty four than he would have in twenty eight. But

643
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: because we haven't lived that history yet, I will wait

644
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: till it actually happens to decide whether that is a

645
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: relevant what if. But I but I digress. So ultimately

646
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: Trump loses and accepts. I still think we end up

647
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: with a one turn Biden presidency. Doesn't mean we don't

648
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: have a Democrat elected in twenty four, but I do

649
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: think it it opens the door to a wide variety

650
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: of potential Republicans that end up the nominee. You know,

651
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 1: and I and and I think the unknown here is

652
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 1: what kind of hold does Trump have on the party

653
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 1: as a sort of losing king maker? Right? George H. W.

654
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: Bush was not did not exactly have a lot of

655
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 1: say over who the nominee was going to be in

656
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: ninety six. So I'm I am. I'm of the mindset

657
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,439
Speaker 1: that Trump's script is much weaker in this scenario where

658
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: he accepts to feed and he acts like a traditional politician.

659
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 1: Of course, we'd have no Donald Trump if he had

660
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: ever behaved like a traditional politician. So of course that

661
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:10,359
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684
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686
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: harder sentario and the one that I hear the most

687
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: for people that don't like Donald Trump going, I wish

688
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 1: we'd just given him a second term, because then it

689
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: would have been Mike Pence ad vice president, not jd Vance.

690
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 1: A lot of people now like Mike Pence. These same

691
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: people weren't so thrilled with them, say summer of twenty twenty.

692
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 1: So here we are. So let's say Trump wins Reelectionarily,

693
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 1: let's say it looks a little bit like his win

694
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: here in twenty four. Right, it's close but decisive, right

695
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 1: to Biden won all the swing states in twenty it

696
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: was very close but decisive. Well, that's likely what we see, right,

697
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: It's it's sort of the similar scenario, right, you know,

698
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 1: as we find out these swing states don't just split,

699
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: you know, usually they all go narrowly in one direction.

700
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened in twenty It's exactly what

701
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: happened in sixteen, it's exactly what happened in twenty four.

702
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 1: So I think for this purposes of Trump wins, it's

703
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: because he sweeps everything narrowly. So there's a few things

704
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 1: you've got to understand. Right, So he's a validated second termer.

705
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 1: Does he win the popular vote or not? Right, Let's

706
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: I'm going to go ahead in this scenario and say yes,

707
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 1: he does that. Let's just assume he gets the same

708
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 1: result as he got in twenty four when's the popular vote,

709
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 1: but it doesn't get fifty percent, which is the most

710
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: likely scenario. It's very you know, and look, our electric

711
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 1: oral college is getting harder and harder to align with

712
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: the popular vote because the size of the House has

713
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 1: not expanded and it needs to. And this is why

714
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 1: we are in this scenario where we've had now multiple

715
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 1: presidents elected with a minority of the popular vote. That

716
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 1: is a bad that is a recipe for future disasters.

717
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,880
Speaker 1: The way out of it is either a constitutional amendment

718
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: that gets rid of the electoral college, or an active

719
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: an act of Congress to expand the House the way

720
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 1: we did for the first one hundred and thirty years

721
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 1: of this country's existence until we stopped in nineteen twenty.

722
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 1: But I will get off that hobby horse. So let's

723
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: set the scenario. Trump wins narrowly, which means what probably

724
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 1: holds the Senate by vote because he holds those he

725
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: holds that, he holds that those Georgia seats. Let's assume

726
00:44:55,239 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 1: he holds one of the two. Right, Warnock wins, but

727
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 1: Asoff loses. That would probably be my guess of in

728
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:12,399
Speaker 1: that scenario. So you're gonna have a Republican Senate. You're

729
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: gonna have a Democratic House. Still right, we're still talking.

730
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:21,800
Speaker 1: There wasn't enough. So we have a democratic House, and

731
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 1: you have a Mike Pence's vice president, not JD Vance's

732
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 1: vice president. This is really important. We didn't know how

733
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 1: important it was until now we see what staffing of

734
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: the White House look like January of twenty twenty five

735
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: versus what staffing of the White House looked like in

736
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 1: January twenty seventeen. Well, guess what staffing of the White

737
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 1: House in twenty twenty January twenty twenty one, in a

738
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,439
Speaker 1: Trump second term does not look like twenty twenty five.

739
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: It looks more like twenty seventeen with some differences. Okay,

740
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: so you're gonna have Mike Pence is vice president. Obviously,

741
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:57,760
Speaker 1: there's no January sixth, which means there's no Pences Trader narrative.

742
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: He's not exiled, there's no massive sort of split between

743
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 1: the two. That doesn't mean Trump is ready to make

744
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: Mike Pence's heir apparent. In fact, I think it's probably

745
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: just as difficult for Pence to get out from underneath

746
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 1: the Trump's shadow here. But the more important thing is

747
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 1: that you have a Trump second term with Mike Pence

748
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: playing the same role he played in the Trump first term.

749
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 1: He was a bridge between trump Ism and essentially institutional

750
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: conservatism and him being there and being on that winning ticket.

751
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 1: Trump's not just going to throw him away right away,

752
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: because Trump still knows without Pence he doesn't win in

753
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: sixty Okay, and so Trump knows he can't totally throw

754
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 1: him away. But Mick Bulvaney writes, previous and John Kelly

755
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 1: all tried in some ways to put some guard rails,

756
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 1: not on Trump when he was president, but on guardrails

757
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 1: around the Oval Office, at least in preventing too many

758
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 1: visits by your Roger Stones of the world. It's essentially

759
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 1: by the nutball wing of the Trump coalition, and all

760
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: three of them were really good at it. John Kelly

761
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 1: was probably the loudest about doing it. I think rights

762
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 1: was turned out to be. He knew he handled it

763
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:17,879
Speaker 1: better than he was given credit for at the time.

764
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 1: But a really important role was was Mike Pence. Mike

765
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 1: Pence was sort of the go between with Congress. He

766
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 1: could smooth things over when things didn't go well over there.

767
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 1: He's a former leader on the Congression Republican side. He

768
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: also had some decent relationships on the Democratic side, so

769
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 1: he was really in some way hit you know, Trump's

770
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: Washington consigli air. Now do realize that Mark Meadows becoming

771
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 1: chief of staff was the first time Trump finally got

772
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,760
Speaker 1: a chief of staff to let quote unquote Trump be Trump.

773
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: Mick Mulvaaney would say he was letting Trump be Trump.

774
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,240
Speaker 1: Wright's preepus would say he was letting Trump be Trump.

775
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: Mark Meadows was the one that said, yeah, let any

776
00:47:55,520 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: cook in Because in some ways Meadows was more responsive

777
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 1: to that wing of the party than any other. Perhaps

778
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 1: he considered himself a creature of that wing of the party.

779
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: He sort of got his rise as an outsider agitator

780
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: in the conservative movement, trying to break into the conservative elite.

781
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 1: So in that sense, he he was a you know,

782
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 1: sort of a shared he had a shared skepticism of

783
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: the Republican elite. So Trump was getting his first taste

784
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 1: of having a chief of staff that was more pliant,

785
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 1: but he also still had Bill Barr Justice. You still

786
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 1: were going to have Mark Esper a pentagon. You know,

787
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: remember all the people that quit, well, they don't quit

788
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: if he wins the second term. Some of them are

789
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: pushed out because maybe they don't want him, maybe Trump

790
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: doesn't want him there anymore, or some of them are

791
00:48:53,160 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 1: burned out from Trump. But the you wouldn't have is

792
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 1: as sycophantic when you look at the cabinet meetings that

793
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 1: we've all witnessed in the last nine months. I promise

794
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 1: you wouldn't get that same level of sycophantry and into

795
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 1: this direct second term with guys like Mark Short and

796
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 1: Mike Bentz helping to at least vet the people that

797
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: were going to be coming into the administration. Yes, you

798
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 1: would have had a Republican Senate that was going to

799
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: give you more. But you still would have had a

800
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell as Republican leader, who of course still wasn't

801
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: a huge fan of Trump, but would realize that a

802
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 1: reelected Trump meant okay. But you would have, you know,

803
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: but you would have had Lane Duck status start to

804
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 1: creep in pretty quickly, and in fact, I want to

805
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 1: get to there in a minute, but I don't want.

806
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:57,320
Speaker 1: You know, there is just there is just more continuity

807
00:49:57,320 --> 00:49:59,319
Speaker 1: and there's less disruption. And then of course there's the

808
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:03,760
Speaker 1: whole reaponizing of ice. Right, we've seen this weaponization of ice,

809
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: the sort of changing the mandate of DHS away from

810
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 1: sort of security of the entire homeland to just being

811
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:15,720
Speaker 1: a deportation agency. All of that comes in some ways

812
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 1: in response to the surge of the border in twenty

813
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: one twenty two. Well, in this scenario, it's Donald Trump

814
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 1: that's president. In twenty one twenty two, by the way,

815
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: we likely would still have some surges in the post

816
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: COVID environment that you would have had people wanting to

817
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 1: come back looking for jobs because finally things were opening up.

818
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 1: Right now that I'm there's no doubt in my mind

819
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 1: they would have dealt with the surge differently. This is

820
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 1: his singular issue. I think ultimately, at the end of

821
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 1: the day, Donald Trump will say the only reason he's

822
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: president is due to the border. Your likely talk to

823
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 1: most Republican historians and they will say, the only reason

824
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 1: he's president is because of the of the perception of

825
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 1: the border, both in sixteen and in twenty four. So,

826
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 1: you know, it certainly would have it would have been

827
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: dealt with, but it would not have been It's hard

828
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 1: to imagine it's done with the same amount of I

829
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 1: don't know what else to call it, other than the

830
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 1: zeal that it's done with now and it's you know,

831
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 1: not having the greatest effect. Then there's there's of course,

832
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 1: we're going to remember remember where we are in the

833
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:30,439
Speaker 1: timeline of life. Right this is immediately post COVID. We're

834
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 1: still trying to get the shots out. And remember it's

835
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 1: kind of chaotic in November and December of how we

836
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 1: were just getting the vaccine. But it's not clear how

837
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 1: many doses we can get out right away. There's a

838
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 1: you know, there's a line older people first, those with

839
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 1: those with health issues essentially also first in line, Right,

840
00:51:56,120 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 1: all of that, How well is that run? How well

841
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:07,839
Speaker 1: does that go? Because we know Trump was so frustrated

842
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 1: and how much he thought COVID was impacting his presidency

843
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:15,399
Speaker 1: that he would micromanage it a lot. Right. But here's

844
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: another thing that I think is an open question on this,

845
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 1: which is, because Trump is giving the vaccine, is there

846
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:31,280
Speaker 1: more vaccine compliance? Is this the does the RFK movement

847
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 1: never happen or never get the same traction that it

848
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 1: got sort of in that period. Honestly, it feels like

849
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: it really sort of accelerated in the first six months

850
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 1: after the vaccine was made available. Is it a different

851
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 1: mindset about, you know, vaccine skepticism. I think it's fair

852
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 1: to you know, I think it's a I think these

853
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: are this is what I mean that the minute you

854
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 1: walk down afore, you realize, oh my god, there's all

855
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 1: these other forks. Right, because he's also a second term president.

856
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 1: What happens immediately after a president's second term we all

857
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 1: realize he can only serve two terms. You also will

858
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 1: get a flood of presidential candidates, and the Republicans would

859
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 1: be going almost as aggressively as the Democrats, and you'd

860
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 1: start to see the early States flooded in ways that

861
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:29,720
Speaker 1: we didn't see in twenty one and twenty two early

862
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 1: on because of the whole Trump sort of you know,

863
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 1: you had the prosecution of Trump, the impeachment of Trump,

864
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 1: the indictments of Trump, and all of that kind of

865
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:45,399
Speaker 1: paralyzed what was normally. But again Trump wins kind of normal. Well,

866
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 1: then you know Ted Cruz is podcasting in Iowa in

867
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:51,600
Speaker 1: you know, by Saint Patrick State twenty twenty one, right,

868
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 1: and you have Nikki Haley out there, and Ronda Santis

869
00:53:55,440 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 1: out there, and probably three or four more, maybe jd Vance,

870
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 1: maybe Peter TiAl is carrying to convince Jady Vans to

871
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 1: immediately start running for president himself. Maybe you do have

872
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 1: a Donald Trump junior or an Eric Trump flirting around,

873
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 1: and I still don't rule that out for twenty eight

874
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 1: if anybody's keeping score. But the point is that you

875
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,040
Speaker 1: have this, and it probably starts to drive Trump a

876
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 1: little crazy, because I know what people forget is that

877
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 1: you have a tiny bit of your reelection gives you

878
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: about six months of political capital. But Biden's political capital

879
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: right got eaten up by the impeachment. Then he gets

880
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 1: a little bit, gets the checks passed, and then Afghanistan happens,

881
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,839
Speaker 1: and then both the presidency essentially politically is over for him.

882
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:49,240
Speaker 1: So let's go that first nine months. I'm not convinced

883
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 1: Afghanistan somehow goes better under Trump, because I don't know

884
00:54:54,719 --> 00:55:00,720
Speaker 1: if anybody could have left Afghanistan in a clean given

885
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 1: how we were leaving it, given how we handed it

886
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:08,760
Speaker 1: over the Taliban. If anything, this is perhaps a even

887
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:12,600
Speaker 1: worse political moment for Trump. You know, it usually takes

888
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: one just you know, you know, Biden in some ways

889
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 1: got propped up by Trump's problems and it sort of

890
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 1: kept him more politically relevant, though he could have slipped

891
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:26,320
Speaker 1: into a lame duck status even faster without Trump there,

892
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 1: but being in a second term. If the Afghanistan withdrawal

893
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 1: goes poorly, I don't think he you know, you know,

894
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 1: Trump wanted to be the guy that got out. I

895
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 1: think he hurts Trump even more than a hurt Biden,

896
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: because people would have it would have been noted that, well,

897
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,280
Speaker 1: you signed this deal with the Taliban, and you handed

898
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 1: them Bagram, and you did all of this. It is

899
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: all I do this. What if about if al Gore's

900
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 1: president during nine to eleven, do we have the same

901
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 1: rally around the flag moment? And I don't think we do,

902
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 1: because in that scenario, al Gore would have been you know,

903
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 1: a Democrat would have been president for nine straight years,

904
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: which means that Democrats have been running the CIA for

905
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,839
Speaker 1: nine straight years, which means in essence, hey, this all

906
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 1: happened in democrats watch right, where the scenario of nine

907
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 1: to eleven actually happened, happening arguably both on a Democratic

908
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 1: watch and a Republican watch right. You had, you know,

909
00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:25,800
Speaker 1: a handover and all of that, so it probably lessened

910
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 1: the political finger pointing because of that, you would have

911
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:33,879
Speaker 1: had a different scenario. Again, this is why I love

912
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: doing these what IFFs, because you you have to not

913
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 1: ignore any potential derivative rabbit hole that either did exist

914
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 1: in the other one and how does it not exist

915
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 1: in this scenario or one that didn't exist in the

916
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: real world but would likely have happened in this one.

917
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 1: So think about the first nine months for Trump. He's

918
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,279
Speaker 1: got to be in charge of getting the shots out,

919
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 1: be in charge of sort of getting us all back,

920
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 1: you know, getting the masks off, right, Remember Joe Biden

921
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 1: declaring independence right, Trump, who already had a shaky track record,

922
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 1: and all of that during twenty twenty, so that's happening. Oh,

923
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: by the way, inflation because of the supply chain issue

924
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 1: is still happening. My guess is Trump does want to

925
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:21,680
Speaker 1: have some checks because he's knew it was popular. Remember

926
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 1: Trump was four checks more COVID checks before. So but

927
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: there's a Republican Senate, Democratic House. My guess is, we

928
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 1: get checks, but we don't get We just get lesser checks.

929
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 1: So the bottom line is, in the same moment that

930
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: Biden sort of lost his elevation post with Afghanistan withdrawal,

931
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 1: there was already crankiness about the economy and there was

932
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 1: all this and for Trump, I think this kicks in

933
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 1: at the same time because let's remember, while Biden could

934
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: sort of say, well that was Trump's economy, give me time,

935
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: there'd have been none of that for second term Trump.

936
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 1: So I do think you have that aspect too, So

937
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: you have more of a dire view of the economy,

938
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 1: more of a problem where Trump owns the economy, more

939
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 1: with the voters, which in some ways, in the same

940
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 1: way that Afghanistan withdrawal pummeled him. I think the the

941
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 1: economy faltering on Trump's watch there honestly is the equivalent

942
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 1: of what we saw after after Liberation Day in the

943
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 1: actual first Trump second Trump term in April of twenty

944
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 1: twenty five, where that is clearly now if you look

945
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 1: back the you know, for me, that's his Afghanistan withdrawal moment,

946
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 1: because it is from there that he laid claimed ownership

947
00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 1: of this economy. It is now all his economy because

948
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:49,919
Speaker 1: of you know, his manipulation of it, and it has

949
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 1: that kind of so so you know, in that sense again,

950
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 1: I think you have a politically weaker Donald Trump. Just

951
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 1: in general across the board, he's politically weaker, which maybe

952
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: why so many people have asked me, would we be

953
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 1: better off if Trump had just gotten his second term

954
00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 1: immediately rather than the way he got it now? And

955
00:59:12,600 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 1: when you start to go through this, if you're asking

956
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 1: about if you're upset about all the violation of norms,

957
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 1: what he's done sort of America's role in the world,

958
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 1: and I'm going to get to that here in a minute,

959
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,400
Speaker 1: I do think you can make a strong argument on

960
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 1: those fronts, So you know, it is that is something

961
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:42,640
Speaker 1: I think that we also underestimate is sort of is

962
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 1: the irony is that Trump's second term is going to

963
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 1: be one of the stronger second presidential terms who had

964
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 1: since FDR. And it's because it was nonconsecutive. It was

965
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 1: because in some ways he got a stronger grip on

966
00:59:54,080 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, which rarely happens for presidents that their

967
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 1: grip can get stronger going into a second term, can

968
01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 1: get stronger even at the start of a second term. Yes,

969
01:00:09,080 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 1: you know, the re elect moment can be a moment

970
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 1: of strength for a second term president, but in some

971
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 1: ways it starts weakening right away. This has been a

972
01:00:17,720 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 1: different scenario. Here's another thing to sort of consider what

973
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 1: we got. We'd had a different military structure. Right, there's

974
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 1: no Pete Haggs at the Defense Department, as I said,

975
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 1: so you're gonna have less of the tumult. That doesn't

976
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,520
Speaker 1: mean Trump doesn't want to put his stamp on the Pentagon,

977
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:44,640
Speaker 1: doesn't want to put a stamp in different places. And

978
01:00:44,680 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that there are people that try to

979
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,040
Speaker 1: help them. And it doesn't mean Mark Esper isn't trying

980
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 1: to appease him wherever possible. It doesn't mean there isn't

981
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 1: a Trump class of submarine that's introduced all of these things, right,

982
01:00:57,120 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 1: But I don't think we're having an excursion in Venezuela.

983
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:02,920
Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, I do think you have,

984
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 1: you know, you would have probably you would have some

985
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 1: of the sort of one off stuff that he has

986
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 1: been doing, what he did with the huties. I think

987
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 1: what we saw with Iran, and I think we'd largely

988
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:22,200
Speaker 1: you know, in some ways. I think one of the

989
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:27,439
Speaker 1: you know, there's there's sort of two I think there's

990
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 1: two or three open questions here where I don't have

991
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: a good definitive answer that happened during the Biden one term.

992
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 1: That are outside events, right, the two big ones being

993
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:44,760
Speaker 1: October seventh, UH, and of course Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

994
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:48,439
Speaker 1: So let's start quickly with I'm gonna get October because

995
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:53,480
Speaker 1: I actually think largely the same way Biden managed bb UH,

996
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 1: Trump would have been just as deferential, perhaps even a

997
01:01:57,400 --> 01:02:01,320
Speaker 1: bit more so. But I don't know if many things

998
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 1: change other than I you could I could make a

999
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 1: case that Trump is quicker to rein in BB and

1000
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 1: has more of an ability to reign in BB in

1001
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:20,440
Speaker 1: his aggressiveness in Gaza than Biden did, right, because you

1002
01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:23,360
Speaker 1: know this is this is you know, we've said it

1003
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 1: before and I and believe it. I don't know if

1004
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:29,200
Speaker 1: Biden could orchestrate the ceasefire if BB's Prime Minister of

1005
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 1: Israel and he's president at the I mean, he was

1006
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 1: struggling to make that happen, right, He'd have a few

1007
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 1: temporary ones this or that, but it wasn't the same.

1008
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:42,919
Speaker 1: In some ways, Trump has has more pull on BB

1009
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 1: because BB made his bet and decided to politicize Israel. Right.

1010
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 1: I will, you know, not to go off on a

1011
01:02:50,440 --> 01:02:52,000
Speaker 1: tangent here, but you know, if you want to know

1012
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 1: why Israel is such a divisive issue in this country,

1013
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:57,919
Speaker 1: you have one person to think. If you're an American Jew,

1014
01:02:58,000 --> 01:02:59,720
Speaker 1: it is not the left or the right of this country.

1015
01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:04,920
Speaker 1: It is it is Benjamin EA and his decision to

1016
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 1: partisanize the issue Israel. Support for Israel was always bipartisan,

1017
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:15,320
Speaker 1: and every prime minister practiced it that way until this one,

1018
01:03:15,800 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 1: and even this one tried to practice it that way

1019
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:24,120
Speaker 1: until Barack Obama. And so again, I'm don't want to

1020
01:03:24,120 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 1: got off on too many rabbit holes here, So I

1021
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:30,400
Speaker 1: don't think a lot changes on October seventh. Other than

1022
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:35,919
Speaker 1: it's perhaps Trump has got a better ability to reign

1023
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 1: bb in faster and quicker, and so maybe there's a

1024
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:43,800
Speaker 1: slightly less destruction than Gaza. I'm not saying that the

1025
01:03:43,920 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 1: larger outcome isn't all the same. Now, let's talk about

1026
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 1: the big one, which is Russia and Ukraine. Right. Trump

1027
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 1: has famously said this doesn't happen if he's president, and

1028
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:01,640
Speaker 1: that somehow the Afghanistan withdrawal emboldened Putin. I think we

1029
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 1: all know that the afghanistran withdrawal had nothing to do

1030
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 1: with Putin. Thinking on Ukraine, Putin's had his sites in Ukraine,

1031
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 1: going back to Crimea, going back to Frankly, you know

1032
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:14,640
Speaker 1: when he gave the speech in Munich nearly a decade

1033
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 1: ago explaining his warped view of history that indicates somehow

1034
01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 1: Ukraine is Russian and always has been Russian and belongs

1035
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 1: to Russia. So here are the questions I have which

1036
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 1: I don't have a good answer for. If you recall,

1037
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 1: during the run up to the invasion America, we decided

1038
01:04:39,400 --> 01:04:42,320
Speaker 1: and this was a Biden decision, and I don't think

1039
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:45,600
Speaker 1: Trump makes the same decision, but Biden decides to let

1040
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 1: the intelligence community go public with what we have because

1041
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:54,400
Speaker 1: remember at the time, Zelenski did not believe the American

1042
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 1: intelligence that said Putin is amassing troops on the border,

1043
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 1: this is going down happen And you know, we had

1044
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:06,760
Speaker 1: to show the satellite photos we were We did. We

1045
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:10,320
Speaker 1: did something we didn't do in previous attempts, which is

1046
01:05:10,360 --> 01:05:13,920
Speaker 1: we went as public as we have with our intelligence.

1047
01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 1: And it was a huge beat. And you know, maybe

1048
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:19,800
Speaker 1: you know, I always I think it was a good

1049
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 1: idea for Biden to do this and for Bill Burns,

1050
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:25,920
Speaker 1: who was CIA director at the time, to push for this,

1051
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 1: because you know, the CIA's reputation is not the greatest

1052
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 1: right and it was the CIA that said it. You know,

1053
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 1: it was a slam dunk. That's I was saying, I

1054
01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 1: have weapons of mass destruction. This was a slam dunk.

1055
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:45,840
Speaker 1: Those were remember of mister Tennant's words. So there is

1056
01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:48,960
Speaker 1: a show your work. I think, you know, trust but

1057
01:05:49,120 --> 01:05:52,720
Speaker 1: verify whatever cliche you want to pull out of your vocabulary.

1058
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 1: That was necessary here for the American intelligence community. Well

1059
01:05:59,440 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 1: does a Donald Trump led CIA who you know, maybe

1060
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:06,960
Speaker 1: Gena Haskell stays she is not somebody that was a

1061
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 1: big fan of being transparent. I say this with respect.

1062
01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:12,040
Speaker 1: I think she was more of an old school CIA

1063
01:06:12,160 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 1: person that, hey, you know, the intelligence gathering is a

1064
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:17,600
Speaker 1: dirty business. You don't want to know our sources and methods,

1065
01:06:18,600 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 1: but some things are better left you know that you

1066
01:06:22,800 --> 01:06:25,760
Speaker 1: don't need to know. Type of mindset. So I think

1067
01:06:25,800 --> 01:06:29,120
Speaker 1: she was sort of old school. So I don't think

1068
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:33,600
Speaker 1: it's as transparent. Do we warn the world that this

1069
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 1: is happening? Do we sort of you know is? Or

1070
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 1: does Trump back channel? Is this used as an effort?

1071
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:44,960
Speaker 1: Does Trump try to back channel and get you know,

1072
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 1: as he claims, and get Putin to try to back off?

1073
01:06:48,640 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 1: Does Putin appease Trump and only do small incursions? Basically deciding, hey,

1074
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 1: Trump snow fan of NATO. I think I could drive

1075
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:02,280
Speaker 1: a wedge, but I better not do a full invasion.

1076
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 1: I'll do it piecemeal and Trump will sort of let

1077
01:07:06,200 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 1: me take Ukraine one tiny piece at a time. First

1078
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:12,840
Speaker 1: it was crimea, I'll come in for this, I'll come

1079
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:16,400
Speaker 1: in for that. But there's sort of one offs. It's

1080
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 1: not the full shock and all. Here's what I don't believe.

1081
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 1: I don't believe Putin does nothing that's what I think

1082
01:07:30,240 --> 01:07:38,680
Speaker 1: is utter fantasy. If you again, if the calculation is

1083
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:45,080
Speaker 1: Putin's thinking, Hey, if I shock in all this, maybe

1084
01:07:45,720 --> 01:07:50,000
Speaker 1: maybe Trump gets comfortable with NATO. But if I piecemeal this,

1085
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:54,400
Speaker 1: I can fracture NATO even more, I can fracture Europe

1086
01:07:54,440 --> 01:08:01,480
Speaker 1: even more. And he goes down that road. That's and

1087
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:05,160
Speaker 1: and that's the only plausible scenario I can think of

1088
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:09,400
Speaker 1: that would have That would have perhaps and I think that,

1089
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: you know, then it's a it might be we might

1090
01:08:13,040 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 1: be right back where we are right now, the situation

1091
01:08:15,480 --> 01:08:18,960
Speaker 1: where Ukraine feels as if it is not allowed to

1092
01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:21,840
Speaker 1: fight back as strongly as as the Russians are, I mean,

1093
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:25,840
Speaker 1: you know, the fact, I mean, it was just so

1094
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 1: demoralizing that President Trump never acknowledges that the Russians are

1095
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:36,000
Speaker 1: the invaders. He never acknowledges that for if if Putin

1096
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:39,880
Speaker 1: is supposedly pro peace, why literally, on the eve of

1097
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:43,160
Speaker 1: what Putin knows there's going to be some peace talks

1098
01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:48,200
Speaker 1: between Trump and Zelenski, that Putin pummels Ukraine the night

1099
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:51,720
Speaker 1: before to send a message, and what does Trump do

1100
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 1: claims that Putin wants peace, to which is you know,

1101
01:08:56,400 --> 01:08:58,240
Speaker 1: it's a you know, Putin is a funny way of

1102
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:01,840
Speaker 1: showing it. That is not what peace seekers, that's not

1103
01:09:01,880 --> 01:09:06,080
Speaker 1: how peace seekers behave. So I think that that's the

1104
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 1: I think that that's the one, you know, if it

1105
01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:17,599
Speaker 1: is that in some ways, it's a more sinister version

1106
01:09:17,600 --> 01:09:20,360
Speaker 1: of how and it might, weirdly, you know, this might

1107
01:09:20,439 --> 01:09:22,679
Speaker 1: be the mistake Putin made. I think the mistake Putin

1108
01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:25,879
Speaker 1: made was thinking he could win this conventionally when actually

1109
01:09:25,920 --> 01:09:28,400
Speaker 1: if he had done it a small bit at a

1110
01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:33,679
Speaker 1: time where you know, Ukraine never went on permanent war footing,

1111
01:09:34,439 --> 01:09:37,360
Speaker 1: they don't get the same pushback. I don't know on

1112
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:39,200
Speaker 1: that one, and I don't want to sit here and

1113
01:09:39,520 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 1: try to make up a definitive answer and say this

1114
01:09:42,280 --> 01:09:46,760
Speaker 1: is for sure how it would go. I think the

1115
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:51,439
Speaker 1: open questions I have about the pre invasion period is

1116
01:09:51,520 --> 01:09:56,599
Speaker 1: whether one America goes as public about it and sort

1117
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 1: of you know, alerts the Europeans. Remember the Europeans didn't

1118
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 1: fully buy in that we had this, and then they

1119
01:10:02,400 --> 01:10:05,559
Speaker 1: more of them confirmed our intelligence. Right, that was an

1120
01:10:05,600 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: important moment of unity and it really sort of brought Europe,

1121
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 1: the United States, and Ukraine onto the same page that

1122
01:10:13,200 --> 01:10:16,920
Speaker 1: you know, the American intelligence had everything, and we had

1123
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 1: this so cold that it's you know, paranoid. You know,

1124
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:24,000
Speaker 1: I think Putin correctly is paranoid that he's we have

1125
01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:27,960
Speaker 1: a mole inside the Kremlin just like he you know,

1126
01:10:28,000 --> 01:10:30,880
Speaker 1: there's all this paranoia that Putin's got some moles. You know.

1127
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:33,600
Speaker 1: I'm of the mindset there's so many adversaries of the

1128
01:10:33,680 --> 01:10:36,800
Speaker 1: United States have bought off people in the Trump administration

1129
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:40,519
Speaker 1: that in some ways there may be balance based on extremes. Right,

1130
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:44,200
Speaker 1: the Iranians have somebody, the Russians, the Chinese, but everybody's

1131
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:46,519
Speaker 1: doing a bit of different bidding and it balances each

1132
01:10:46,520 --> 01:10:49,880
Speaker 1: other itself out. That's my really dark way of showing

1133
01:10:49,920 --> 01:10:53,720
Speaker 1: optimism sometimes about our current pay for play schemes that

1134
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:58,439
Speaker 1: the Republic's being turned into. But on a less cynical note,

1135
01:10:58,760 --> 01:11:01,719
Speaker 1: I think that's the real open question about Ukraine. So look,

1136
01:11:03,640 --> 01:11:06,679
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed this sort of trip down fantasy

1137
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:10,800
Speaker 1: island here where we had two different scenarios, one where

1138
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:14,880
Speaker 1: Trump concedes normally and what that does to the Biden presidency,

1139
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:18,320
Speaker 1: which I don't think we fully appreciate how different of

1140
01:11:18,360 --> 01:11:24,280
Speaker 1: a presidency Biden's presidency is without the cloud of January sixth,

1141
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:28,639
Speaker 1: beginning his presidency with an impeachment trial all of those things. Right,

1142
01:11:28,880 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 1: If none of that happens, it really changes the Biden presidency.

1143
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:34,120
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, maybe he doesn't have the

1144
01:11:34,160 --> 01:11:39,559
Speaker 1: full trifecta. Right, it is the post election behavior by

1145
01:11:39,600 --> 01:11:43,760
Speaker 1: Donald Trump really sort of changed the trajectory of two

1146
01:11:43,800 --> 01:11:47,320
Speaker 1: presidencies because the Trump second term that we're experiencing is

1147
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:53,559
Speaker 1: far different. Okay, is there less guardrails than a second

1148
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:56,880
Speaker 1: Trump presidency, Yes, but there are more guardrails than the

1149
01:11:57,000 --> 01:11:59,600
Speaker 1: term that we have now has, right, because you have

1150
01:11:59,640 --> 01:12:02,400
Speaker 1: a go from you know, you had the Mark Meadows,

1151
01:12:02,400 --> 01:12:05,479
Speaker 1: which was the first chief of staff that was truly

1152
01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:08,639
Speaker 1: behaving with the sure let everybody into the Oval office,

1153
01:12:08,680 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 1: that's okay, but you still had you know, sort of institutionalists,

1154
01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:17,040
Speaker 1: you know who may have had their own ideological beliefs,

1155
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:20,959
Speaker 1: but they were institutionalists like bar justice, like esperate defense.

1156
01:12:22,880 --> 01:12:28,760
Speaker 1: So it is I think you have a sort of

1157
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:32,360
Speaker 1: cabinet that is sort of half Pence wing of the party,

1158
01:12:32,880 --> 01:12:37,320
Speaker 1: half Maga wing of the party. Right, you know, do

1159
01:12:37,439 --> 01:12:40,719
Speaker 1: I think maybe you get now? I think Marco Rubio

1160
01:12:40,800 --> 01:12:43,680
Speaker 1: might be Secretary State in the immediate Trump presidency, just

1161
01:12:43,720 --> 01:12:45,840
Speaker 1: like he is in this one. I do think, you know,

1162
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:49,000
Speaker 1: Trump would freshen up. Most second terms have new secretary states.

1163
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,080
Speaker 1: You know, maybe there's a new you know, does Minus

1164
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:54,280
Speaker 1: stand a Treasury that I actually think he does. I

1165
01:12:54,280 --> 01:12:56,599
Speaker 1: think he enjoyed being Treasury secretary. So I don't think

1166
01:12:56,600 --> 01:13:00,640
Speaker 1: that goes away until Trump pushes him out. So you know,

1167
01:13:03,040 --> 01:13:06,840
Speaker 1: it's just you know, he doesn't. There's no there's no

1168
01:13:07,040 --> 01:13:11,960
Speaker 1: uh uh him trying to indict James Comey and indict

1169
01:13:12,080 --> 01:13:16,120
Speaker 1: Leticia James and indict you know all of those folks, right,

1170
01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:18,920
Speaker 1: we never By the way, Jack Smith is a name

1171
01:13:18,960 --> 01:13:22,400
Speaker 1: nobody knows other than folks in the Justice Department and

1172
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:26,240
Speaker 1: then the legal community. Right. Fanny Willis is a name

1173
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:32,000
Speaker 1: that has no national meaning whatsoever. Right, So it is

1174
01:13:32,280 --> 01:13:35,720
Speaker 1: I don't think we fully appreciate, and I think it

1175
01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:40,599
Speaker 1: what this exercise really did for me was one paint

1176
01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:45,720
Speaker 1: a picture of just how much the the Biden governance

1177
01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:48,880
Speaker 1: changed because of January sixth, And I didn't. You don't

1178
01:13:48,920 --> 01:13:51,280
Speaker 1: fully appreciate, right when you're living through it, you're working

1179
01:13:51,280 --> 01:13:53,160
Speaker 1: through it, and then you step back and look. So

1180
01:13:53,200 --> 01:13:55,040
Speaker 1: I think that was inside number one for me and

1181
01:13:55,120 --> 01:13:59,840
Speaker 1: inside number two. It's just it is a I think,

1182
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:03,920
Speaker 1: fairly radically different presidency. Not because you know, for a

1183
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:06,160
Speaker 1: variety of reason. One is, we don't have this massive

1184
01:14:06,200 --> 01:14:09,840
Speaker 1: deportation for us. We don't have his obsession with with retribution.

1185
01:14:10,560 --> 01:14:13,080
Speaker 1: So those are two big areas where he just is

1186
01:14:13,120 --> 01:14:17,639
Speaker 1: not He's not trying to so you know, he may

1187
01:14:17,640 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 1: have his continued obsessions with the press, but by the way,

1188
01:14:21,280 --> 01:14:26,720
Speaker 1: he's still tweeting there's no truth social that doesn't exist, right,

1189
01:14:26,760 --> 01:14:30,000
Speaker 1: Truth social only happens because of the right. So it

1190
01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:34,080
Speaker 1: is you know this. You know it's only been four years,

1191
01:14:34,560 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 1: right or I guess five years now since we had

1192
01:14:37,200 --> 01:14:42,800
Speaker 1: this hinge moment, and yet it's astonishing all you know

1193
01:14:42,880 --> 01:14:46,080
Speaker 1: what happened in those five years and how different they

1194
01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:49,880
Speaker 1: would have been even with Trump, when with Trump winning

1195
01:14:49,920 --> 01:14:54,360
Speaker 1: that immediate second term in twenty twenty. So I hope

1196
01:14:54,360 --> 01:14:57,280
Speaker 1: you enjoyed this wet of exercise. I hope it inspired

1197
01:14:57,280 --> 01:14:59,040
Speaker 1: you know. I'm you, guys send in a whole bunch

1198
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:03,479
Speaker 1: of interesting ones. I really wanted to stick with ones

1199
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:08,559
Speaker 1: that I thought could be sort of more open ended questions, right,

1200
01:15:08,600 --> 01:15:11,320
Speaker 1: whether it's you know, it's going to be different, the

1201
01:15:11,439 --> 01:15:13,960
Speaker 1: question is how radically different? And I think in this

1202
01:15:14,000 --> 01:15:16,479
Speaker 1: scenario we see we'd have had a radically different Biden

1203
01:15:16,520 --> 01:15:19,360
Speaker 1: presidency had he conceded normally, And we would have had

1204
01:15:19,360 --> 01:15:23,760
Speaker 1: a pretty different presidency at least on the domestic level

1205
01:15:24,520 --> 01:15:27,960
Speaker 1: and certainly where the two parties are today. Right twenty

1206
01:15:28,000 --> 01:15:34,400
Speaker 1: twenty four? Right? If Trump wins the second term, is

1207
01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:38,040
Speaker 1: Pete Bootage the front runner in twenty twenty four and

1208
01:15:38,120 --> 01:15:40,439
Speaker 1: is he the actual nominee in twenty twenty four? Right?

1209
01:15:40,560 --> 01:15:43,080
Speaker 1: Is there Buyer's remorse on Biden? Was it turnout people

1210
01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:47,679
Speaker 1: would say, boy trying to settle for Biden? The all

1211
01:15:47,720 --> 01:15:51,760
Speaker 1: of the hand ringing that happened after Kamala Harris loss,

1212
01:15:51,760 --> 01:15:53,280
Speaker 1: which was well there should have been a primary, Da

1213
01:15:53,360 --> 01:15:56,400
Speaker 1: da da dah. I think all of that comes back. Right,

1214
01:15:59,400 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 1: does Bernie in twenty four? Right? Does both Bernie and

1215
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:06,680
Speaker 1: Pete run? Or is it Pete and Royal Kanna? Is

1216
01:16:06,720 --> 01:16:09,920
Speaker 1: it Pete and Elizabeth Warren? Is it Pete and AOC?

1217
01:16:11,720 --> 01:16:17,360
Speaker 1: But I would say the person who's politics political future

1218
01:16:17,479 --> 01:16:21,519
Speaker 1: probably actually got hampered the most of anybody in this

1219
01:16:21,680 --> 01:16:25,600
Speaker 1: scenario is Pete Bootage. I think if Trump winning a

1220
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:29,680
Speaker 1: conventional second term in twenty twenty allows Pete to be

1221
01:16:29,800 --> 01:16:32,439
Speaker 1: the sort of outsider front runner, kind of like in

1222
01:16:32,479 --> 01:16:35,599
Speaker 1: the Gary Hart position for the old school political junkies

1223
01:16:35,920 --> 01:16:39,519
Speaker 1: where or the John Edwards position in four or they

1224
01:16:39,640 --> 01:16:42,559
Speaker 1: you know, going into eight. I think Pete is a player.

1225
01:16:43,200 --> 01:16:45,160
Speaker 1: Is he the eventual nominee in twenty four I don't know,

1226
01:16:45,200 --> 01:16:47,519
Speaker 1: but I think he is more of a player and

1227
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:49,559
Speaker 1: more of a voice and more of a face of

1228
01:16:49,600 --> 01:16:55,559
Speaker 1: the party. And then the version of Pete Bootage now

1229
01:16:55,680 --> 01:17:01,000
Speaker 1: is Biden Cabinet secretary. So there you go. I hope

1230
01:17:01,040 --> 01:17:04,479
Speaker 1: you enjoyed it. I love doing these things. I enjoy

1231
01:17:04,520 --> 01:17:06,639
Speaker 1: the rabbit holes I go down. As you can see,

1232
01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:09,080
Speaker 1: I went down quite a few of them. And I'll

1233
01:17:09,120 --> 01:17:13,080
Speaker 1: have another one for you next week that goes back

1234
01:17:13,120 --> 01:17:17,439
Speaker 1: a little bit further in our time machine. Not quite

1235
01:17:17,439 --> 01:17:19,479
Speaker 1: as far back as nineteen eighty five then Biff with

1236
01:17:19,479 --> 01:17:24,080
Speaker 1: the sports aminec but pretty close. So with that, enjoy

1237
01:17:24,120 --> 01:17:28,320
Speaker 1: the holiday season. I appreciate, appreciate you listening, appreciate you

1238
01:17:28,400 --> 01:17:31,800
Speaker 1: enjoying this, and please send me some responses to this.

1239
01:17:32,160 --> 01:17:36,360
Speaker 1: I will do, We'll do. I'll do a special mail

1240
01:17:36,400 --> 01:17:41,439
Speaker 1: bag that's just responses to this. What if you know

1241
01:17:41,520 --> 01:17:43,680
Speaker 1: if you've got assumptions you want to challenge, hit me

1242
01:17:43,720 --> 01:17:47,519
Speaker 1: with them. Areas you think I didn't, that I you know,

1243
01:17:47,640 --> 01:17:51,040
Speaker 1: skipped over that I should know, And I will do

1244
01:17:51,600 --> 01:17:55,559
Speaker 1: a special mail bag on the MLK weekend for that

1245
01:17:55,720 --> 01:17:58,519
Speaker 1: drop on that MLK Monday, and we'll do that as

1246
01:17:58,520 --> 01:18:04,240
Speaker 1: our sort of what if mailbag episode. Other than that,

1247
01:18:04,320 --> 01:18:07,320
Speaker 1: with that, I'll see hopefully on this feed in the

1248
01:18:07,320 --> 01:18:09,479
Speaker 1: next twenty four to forty eight hours. Thanks for listening.