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Speaker 1: Hoops Tonight, presented by FanDuel here at the volume Happy Wednesday. Everybody.
Speaker 1: NBA Draft is tomorrow, so we are going to be
Speaker 1: taking some time today just to look at the top picks.
Speaker 1: Don't nearly have enough time after that WorldWind of a
Speaker 1: playoff run to get into every single guy available in
Speaker 1: this draft. And there are a lot of guys out
Speaker 1: there who do have that the time to do that
Speaker 1: kind of thing. And one of them actually happens to
Speaker 1: be our very own Carson Um. I know he's done
Speaker 1: it a little bit more in years past. That said,
Speaker 1: this is his favorite time of year and this is
Speaker 1: right up his wheelhouse, and so I'm very, very excited
Speaker 1: to be bringing Carson on today to talk about just
Speaker 1: the top guys in this year's draft, mainly the top
Speaker 1: five players that I see in this set. Now, before
Speaker 1: we get started and before I bring Carson on, I
Speaker 1: wanted to take just a couple of minutes to talk
Speaker 1: about something that I've always paid very close to Engine
Speaker 1: two in the draft, because I do think it's very interesting.
Speaker 1: You know, every NBA team, even poorly run NBA teams
Speaker 1: like the Lakers, have a scouting department who they don't
Speaker 1: care about what's happening, you know, when the Lakers are
Speaker 1: preparing to play the Orlando Magic, or or what's going
Speaker 1: on with free agent signings or things along those lines.
Speaker 1: For the most part, they pay attention to collegiate basketball
Speaker 1: players and they look or overseas basketball players or players
Speaker 1: who are out of the league in some capacity, and
Speaker 1: they look for opportunities to add talent to their teams
Speaker 1: that goes to the top of the draft all the
Speaker 1: way down to the undrafted UH players around the world.
Speaker 1: And yet they still make mistakes all the time. And
Speaker 1: you know, Andrew Wiggins is a great example of that
Speaker 1: of a player who was taking number one that has
Speaker 1: played a lot more like somebody who's towards the tail
Speaker 1: end of the lottery, right. And the short answer is is,
Speaker 1: no matter how hard you work at this stuff you met,
Speaker 1: you have misses. And there are four really quick reasons
Speaker 1: why I wanted that. I wanted to point as to
Speaker 1: why that kind of thing happens. One is situation. You know,
Speaker 1: look at Andrew Wiggins as an example there and him
Speaker 1: being in Minnesota on a poorly run team alongside stars
Speaker 1: and other players that didn't really bring the best out
Speaker 1: of him. And then he goes to Golden State, he
Speaker 1: gets around a smart team, he fits into a role
Speaker 1: that makes more sense to him, and he immediately takes off.
Speaker 1: And then you have injuries. I mean, we look at
Speaker 1: Marquelle Folts. He has some sort of weird shoulder issue
Speaker 1: and then suddenly he has to reconstruct his jump shot
Speaker 1: for him and his entire game falls apart. Or after that,
Speaker 1: he finally goes down to Orlando and kind of settles
Speaker 1: in a little bit and he gets hurt. That kind
Speaker 1: of thing can happen. Number Three, like your work ethic,
Speaker 1: it's very very difficult, especially for a guy like me
Speaker 1: who is only taking a short amount of time in
Speaker 1: the year to try to analyze this kind of thing.
Speaker 1: It's difficult to get a feel for a player's work ethic,
Speaker 1: especially when they're young. There are a lot of players
Speaker 1: who suddenly, right around age twenty three something clicks for
Speaker 1: them in terms of their maturity, and they step things
Speaker 1: up a certain amount. When you're evaluating them when they're eighteen,
Speaker 1: it can be difficult to make those types of judgment calls.
Speaker 1: And then, last, but not least, and this is to
Speaker 1: me one of the most important things and one of
Speaker 1: the most difficult things to evaluate in a young player,
Speaker 1: but their competitive nature. You know, there are it's kind
Speaker 1: of like that fight or flight response that we always
Speaker 1: talked about. I played against a lot of really high
Speaker 1: level basketball players in my career, uh, guys who played
Speaker 1: in the NBA, guys who play elsewhere overseas, and guys
Speaker 1: who got close or guys who flamed out, and you know,
Speaker 1: there's always a sliding scale there between a guy that
Speaker 1: when you step to them, when you challenge them, when
Speaker 1: you put them in a situation where they have to
Speaker 1: fight out, they either fight or there are guys that
Speaker 1: are more willing to disappear into the background. And those
Speaker 1: guys that disappear, they end up being the kinds of
Speaker 1: players where you're watching a forty eight minute basketball game
Speaker 1: and ten fifteen minutes can go by and you forget
Speaker 1: they're even involved, whereas the real fighters out there always
Speaker 1: scratching and clawing for every single advantage on the court,
Speaker 1: and it is readily apparent on the screen. And those
Speaker 1: four things are the main reasons why so many draft
Speaker 1: picks get missed over the years, and it's very, very
Speaker 1: difficult to interpret those things. So one of the main
Speaker 1: things that we're gonna be focused on today are things
Speaker 1: that are absolutely measurable and discernible on tape, like their
Speaker 1: physical tools, their skill sets, the way that their specifics
Speaker 1: tools and skill sets can factor in to an NBA
Speaker 1: team right now, and what they could potentially develop into
Speaker 1: in the future. But I just wanted to take a
Speaker 1: couple of minutes to go over that because I do
Speaker 1: think it's a very interesting dynamic that takes place in
Speaker 1: the NBA draft. Before I get started here, I wanted
Speaker 1: to bring on Carson Um. Carson, it's good to see
Speaker 1: you again. I know we didn't get to see you
Speaker 1: too much during the NBA Finals, but it's sure is
Speaker 1: good to see you right now. How you doing, Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: it is great to be here. And like you said,
Speaker 1: this is my favorite time of the year. And I
Speaker 1: think this is a really interesting class that we have.
Speaker 1: We've had a few strong classes over the last few years,
Speaker 1: and this one, certainly, I think is comparable in the
Speaker 1: caliber of guys in the top is really interesting as well.
Speaker 1: So I'm pumped to talk about all of it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and there are like some straight up home run picks
Speaker 1: in there too, like like it's it remains to be
Speaker 1: seen how great they will be, but there, you know,
Speaker 1: I think the top three guys in particular are guaranteed
Speaker 1: quality NBA players. Quick funny story. I was I was
Speaker 1: having a beer with a buddy of mine that I
Speaker 1: hadn't seen in a little while yesterday, and I showed
Speaker 1: him your TikTok page and like, I've always been so
Speaker 1: blown away by your memory. But we were watching your
Speaker 1: Aaron Brooks one. But when we're where, they were reading
Speaker 1: Aaron books resume, and like my buddy and I were
Speaker 1: like shooting guesses out as you were going and you're
Speaker 1: kind of methodically working through it. And I was just
Speaker 1: telling him, I'm like, I'm like, dude, this is what
Speaker 1: this guy does. Just he's an encyclopedia with this kind
Speaker 1: of knowledge, so uh to get you know, I looked
Speaker 1: at eight or nine players over the course of the the
Speaker 1: last few days. UM the seven that I thought separated
Speaker 1: themselves and had a case to be in the top five.
Speaker 1: I've or Benedict Matherin, who came through UH the University
Speaker 1: of Arizona and my local hometown Tucson, UH, Keegan Murray
Speaker 1: out of Iowa, Shaden Sharp out of out of the
Speaker 1: G League. He was excuse me, he was at Kentucky
Speaker 1: and he ended up not playing this year. Then there's
Speaker 1: Jaden Ivy out of Purdue, Jabari Smith out of Auburn, UM,
Speaker 1: Chad home Grin out of Gonzaga, and Pala Boncero at
Speaker 1: a Duke. Those were the seven that I considered. If
Speaker 1: we have time at the end, we can talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about why the two that I left out
Speaker 1: were left out. But I'm gonna start from the top
Speaker 1: down and just kind of give my two cents and
Speaker 1: then we'll go back and forth. And I'm really curious
Speaker 1: to hear your opinion on these guys. So I know
Speaker 1: there's a lot of debate about who's gonna go number one.
Speaker 1: I know there's a decent amount of reporting that says
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Jabari Smith. Uh. My initial interpretation as
Speaker 1: I view him lower than that. We'll get there in
Speaker 1: a minute. To me, the best prospect that I noticed
Speaker 1: in my time watching film UM was Paulo Bontare. And
Speaker 1: there are a couple of specific reasons why. I mean,
Speaker 1: he definitively, unquestionably has a lower defensive ceiling than Chet
Speaker 1: or Jabbar. That goes without saying um. But like I've
Speaker 1: always talked about on my show, and then as Colin
Speaker 1: and I talked about a lot during the finals, I
Speaker 1: do believe that it is easier to coach a player
Speaker 1: up to become a fun, functional defensive player, especially if
Speaker 1: he's surrounded by the requisite talent, and and to focus
Speaker 1: his offensive energies in a ways that are in ways
Speaker 1: that are more impactful than it is to do the reverse.
Speaker 1: And we will get to that specifically when we get
Speaker 1: to Chat and Jabbar, because I do think there's chances
Speaker 1: with both of them that they become role players, guys
Speaker 1: who are very very good role players. Because they don't
Speaker 1: they potentially have some limitations on the offensive end. In
Speaker 1: my opinion, Paolo is on the low end, a guy
Speaker 1: who will one day average twenty points a game in
Speaker 1: the n b A he act actually reminds me in
Speaker 1: terms of a ceiling of Carmelo Anthony. Now, I don't
Speaker 1: see it anywhere near the perimeter flashes yet in terms
Speaker 1: of the fact that, like when Carmelo was at Syracuse,
Speaker 1: he was a gunner from the perimeter and deadly out there. Uh,
Speaker 1: Paulo's more a guy that shows flashes, but he's still
Speaker 1: streaky out there. Where I really see it is the
Speaker 1: face up game and the arsenal of moves in the
Speaker 1: mid to short range. And I always talked about how
Speaker 1: the short range is kind of like under under evaluated,
Speaker 1: under utilized in the NBA. Those are those like little
Speaker 1: floaters and push shots and hooks and things that are
Speaker 1: like crafty finishes around the basket. And I was super impressive,
Speaker 1: impressed by just the overall versatility of Paolo's offensive approach,
Speaker 1: his ability to um to use his body for leverage
Speaker 1: to get closer to the rim. His he's got all
Speaker 1: the turnaround fade aways and step backs, he's got the
Speaker 1: hesitation pull up jump shots off the dribble, and he's
Speaker 1: got everything around around the rim. But his overall face
Speaker 1: of approach reminds me of Carmelo. The scary thing is
Speaker 1: he doesn't quite have that great first step, and as
Speaker 1: a result of that, I think he's gonna become a
Speaker 1: guy who has to turn his back to the basket often,
Speaker 1: and that will put a lot of pressure on him
Speaker 1: over the first five six years of his career to
Speaker 1: really develop his ball handling more and his shooting more,
Speaker 1: because if you do not have a first step, that
Speaker 1: can consistently compromise that initial defensive player, like let's pretend
Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins is guarding him. If you don't have the
Speaker 1: first step, to get that initial separation, you have to
Speaker 1: be incredibly sharp with your handle, your change of pace,
Speaker 1: and your shop making ability, which I do think he's
Speaker 1: capable of with his size and strength. But those are
Speaker 1: those are just I have a couple other notes that
Speaker 1: I want to hit on, but that was just my
Speaker 1: initial takeaway. Where are you at right now with Paolo Carson?
Speaker 1: I think Paulo is an incredibly unique and really impressive prospect.
Speaker 1: He's actually not my number one guy on this class.
Speaker 1: He is my number two though. But I completely agree
Speaker 1: with you in terms of the point about offensive development
Speaker 1: in vision there because the mellow comparison is interesting. When
Speaker 1: I watched Paullo, the guy who I see the most
Speaker 1: similarity to that has been a star at the NBA
Speaker 1: level in recent times is probably Julius Randall. I think
Speaker 1: the big distinction is that Paolo is bigger, He's more
Speaker 1: dynamic athletically, and I think he has much more ability
Speaker 1: to be versatile within an offense, whereas Randall kind of
Speaker 1: has tried to religiously stick to that point forward role
Speaker 1: and force the issue and rely on the really tough
Speaker 1: midrange shot making all that stuff that we saw go
Speaker 1: really south this year as compared to two years ago
Speaker 1: when he was a legitimate all NBA guy, I just
Speaker 1: think Powell has more ways in which he can kill you.
Speaker 1: I mean, he is kind of a dream modern wing,
Speaker 1: big hybrid offensively because I think you can initiate in
Speaker 1: so many different ways from him. Right, he can be
Speaker 1: that point forward and stretches. His playmaking is good enough,
Speaker 1: His pull up jump shooting is good enough. Needs to
Speaker 1: be a little bit more consistent. He's confident, he's willing,
Speaker 1: and he's certainly solid. But you can all see him
Speaker 1: as a roll man. You can use him to pop
Speaker 1: because he has the ability to score on all three
Speaker 1: levels and he can be a dynamic lab threat like
Speaker 1: he's a six ten to fifty legitimate plus athlete with
Speaker 1: high level basketball skill too. It needs to be refined.
Speaker 1: His decision making needs to be a little better, you know,
Speaker 1: taking care of the ball can be a little bit better.
Speaker 1: He needs to get more efficient as a score overall,
Speaker 1: and that's really a product of shot selection and some
Speaker 1: of the pure jump shooting ability. But the tools are there.
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you. If he doesn't score twenty
Speaker 1: a game at the next level, I will be surprised.
Speaker 1: In the defense, I mean, he has the tools. You
Speaker 1: never know completely with these guys, because so often guys
Speaker 1: are just lagging behind on defense and they don't come
Speaker 1: into the league as high impact guys obviously, but Polo
Speaker 1: has the tools. He's a good athlete with a seven
Speaker 1: one wingspan. He moves his feet pretty well, so I
Speaker 1: think if you see him committed consistently, he's a good
Speaker 1: defensive playmaker. Like I think he has good hands, so
Speaker 1: I think he should be a star. If he's not
Speaker 1: a star, I think that that's disappointing. But the reason
Speaker 1: I don't have them number one, I think is just
Speaker 1: a testament to the strength of this class. And like
Speaker 1: we're just seeing crazier prospects every year. You know, guys
Speaker 1: like Palo have rarely existed, you know, to come in
Speaker 1: at this size and level of athleticism and also basketball skill,
Speaker 1: it's crazy, And I absolutely think you should be a star.
Speaker 1: You know that that uh, that last part is super
Speaker 1: super interesting because you know, I was thinking the same
Speaker 1: thing as I was watching the film this morning, is
Speaker 1: like basketball players are getting so damn it's so ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Like I used to think of, like, you know, a
Speaker 1: certain level of skill as a differentiator. You know, like
Speaker 1: when you see a player, it used to be like
Speaker 1: when we were younger, you know, like you'd watch Jabari
Speaker 1: Parker go down the lane for Duke and do this
Speaker 1: wild hesitation left right and then do like an up
Speaker 1: and under finish off the glass, and you'd be like,
Speaker 1: oh my goodness, I can't believe we just saw a
Speaker 1: six ten guy do that. And now it's like, if
Speaker 1: you can't do that, I'm not sure you could play
Speaker 1: in the league anymore. It's like, it's crazy how the
Speaker 1: league is developed. And here we are looking at the
Speaker 1: top of this draft. I've got three massive basketball players
Speaker 1: who are all incredibly skilled already for their positions, some
Speaker 1: more than others. The other thing you said that thought
Speaker 1: was really interesting is that big wing hybrid. And this
Speaker 1: is a key you know, as we get into the
Speaker 1: position list league. It's not so much that you know, uh,
Speaker 1: it's all the same position. It's more just that the
Speaker 1: positions have kind of melded into combinations of each other,
Speaker 1: right Like, instead of it being like kind of one, two, three,
Speaker 1: four five, it's more like it's more like guard wing,
Speaker 1: wing and big wing, you know what I mean. And
Speaker 1: what's what's interesting about the idea of a big wing
Speaker 1: is they kind of have a different level of mismatch
Speaker 1: potential than a normal wing does. So for instance, like
Speaker 1: look at how Andrew Wiggins was able to contain Jason
Speaker 1: Tatum in a good defensive scheme because he had the
Speaker 1: physical tools to match what Jayson Tatum was doing. And
Speaker 1: then you even saw Clay Thompson, who didn't even have
Speaker 1: the same set of physical tools as Jalen Brown have
Speaker 1: a ton of success containing Jalen Brown over the course
Speaker 1: of that series because Jalen Brown did not have that
Speaker 1: back to the basket game to punish with his size,
Speaker 1: and and even if Tatum did, he just doesn't have
Speaker 1: the physical tools over and Andrew Wiggins. You know, like
Speaker 1: that type of player, that type of wing defender against
Speaker 1: Paolo might be too small, and he might have the
Speaker 1: ability to get to fight for position in certain spots
Speaker 1: on the floor where his handle doesn't matter as much.
Speaker 1: Allah Mellow in a face up role feet from the basket,
Speaker 1: and suddenly it's like, even if he does a hard
Speaker 1: dribble to the right and Wiggins cuts him off, he
Speaker 1: can bump him, turn his back and immediately have an
Speaker 1: arsenal of moves to go to where Wiggins can't defend
Speaker 1: him because he's just a touch too small and and
Speaker 1: and you know in the modern NBA, when you go
Speaker 1: five out and it becomes matchup attacking, I think that
Speaker 1: can be a huge weapon. Because even Steph Curry on
Speaker 1: switch Is was having success sitting on Tatum in Brown's
Speaker 1: right hand and forcing them into step backs and things
Speaker 1: along those lines. Back to the basket game is so
Speaker 1: rare in the NBA, the NBA these days, and it's
Speaker 1: not just post up back to the basket fade away
Speaker 1: over Bull's shoulder. It's kind of like the Lebron thing
Speaker 1: where it can be like a full court post up
Speaker 1: where you're turning your back and spinning and going into
Speaker 1: moves and hooks and things along those lines. So I
Speaker 1: just in general, also that I didn't even hear about
Speaker 1: his wingspan. That's crazy over seven foot wingspan. That's another
Speaker 1: good piece for him Defensively. That kind of means that
Speaker 1: the very least he can be a decent positional defender
Speaker 1: that can force people to shoot over the top by
Speaker 1: giving ground, you know what I mean. So I I
Speaker 1: I'm really curious to see. So I'm I'm gonna guess.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess, Carson that your number one is Chet
Speaker 1: home Grint. Is that okay? So let's do this. Explain
Speaker 1: to me why you would take Chet over pal Out,
Speaker 1: not just as a player, but also specifically for Orlando
Speaker 1: who seems to be having plenty of length defensive athletes
Speaker 1: and not enough offensive creation. So this is true, However,
Speaker 1: I would argue that Orlando drafting based on their current
Speaker 1: roster in kind of every anyway is probably shortsighted beyond like,
Speaker 1: you know, trying to get another Cole Anthony. But even
Speaker 1: it's like, nobody to me on the Orlando Magic roster
Speaker 1: is irreplaceable. So I think they should be in best
Speaker 1: player available mode fundamentally. Uh, it certainly seems like they're
Speaker 1: gonna take Jabari. That's what really all the reporting is
Speaker 1: right now, and Jabari Smith is a very good prospect.
Speaker 1: But when it comes to Chet, I think what you
Speaker 1: said is really interesting about who. You can see both
Speaker 1: Chet and Jabari becoming kind of just role players offensively,
Speaker 1: whereas Paolo you don't see that path. I think the
Speaker 1: thing is, if Chet's a role player offensively, it's a
Speaker 1: damn good role player, like a fifteen eighteen point per
Speaker 1: game score still, because he just is so perfectly built
Speaker 1: in terms of his skill set to fit in as
Speaker 1: a modern NBA big I think, like, obviously everybody will
Speaker 1: talk about the fact that he pounds, that's a problem,
Speaker 1: but his blend of athleticism and skill is completely ideal.
Speaker 1: Like he's a thirty nine percent three point shooter. So
Speaker 1: the pick and pop game is absolutely lethal. He's legitimately
Speaker 1: very quick for his position and is a slippery lob
Speaker 1: threat and a massive target in there because the guy
Speaker 1: is huge and ridiculously long. So it's just like playing
Speaker 1: off of good NBA guards. Well, great, you feed him anywhere.
Speaker 1: He's a thirty three point freeter. He's got sev on
Speaker 1: twos in college and okay, somebody clothes out hard on him.
Speaker 1: He's quick enough to attack the clothes out. His ball
Speaker 1: handling is easily good enough for him to go out
Speaker 1: and make you pay there. He even has a little
Speaker 1: bit of that intermediate game. So I just think Jet
Speaker 1: is not gonna be an offensive centerpiece. To me, I
Speaker 1: don't think Jet is every twenty five point per game score.
Speaker 1: I don't think it is, hey, we're running tons of
Speaker 1: offense through him in the post, because I don't know
Speaker 1: that he'll ever be strong enough to have that really
Speaker 1: high level back to the basket game. But I think
Speaker 1: it is is like, hey, we have a guy who
Speaker 1: is a better Christian it offensively and is also, by
Speaker 1: the way, a really good positional past, and I think
Speaker 1: we'll see more and more of that in the league.
Speaker 1: Who is also like potentially best defensive player alive because
Speaker 1: he's just an absolute freak on that end. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know that we have seen a better shot
Speaker 1: blocker in college since Anthony Davis three point seven a game.
Speaker 1: It's unbelievable, and he is so incredibly instinctual there. His
Speaker 1: length is unfathomable, like he can just block a shot
Speaker 1: from anywhere. He's perfect as a help side ring protector.
Speaker 1: He fared shockingly well against really good post scorers. Like
Speaker 1: obviously everything is different in the league, like Joel Embiid
Speaker 1: is a different beast. Nicol Yokes, those guys are gonna
Speaker 1: cook him when he comes in the league. But because
Speaker 1: of his positional instincts and his length and just his
Speaker 1: i Q, Like I forget the exact number, but he
Speaker 1: held people to a really low field goal percentage out
Speaker 1: of the post this year. So I just think he
Speaker 1: is an all encompassing defensive weapon because he's crazy switchable.
Speaker 1: Like for his size, I mean, he's so good on
Speaker 1: his and again that length can just affect people from anywhere.
Speaker 1: So that's what it is to me, is he's too
Speaker 1: skilled and too athletic to be a non factor offensively.
Speaker 1: In fact, you know there's only Jason. Like, how many
Speaker 1: offensive big men are there who are the centerpiece of
Speaker 1: their teams in the league right now, like like center, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it's three. I think it's Embiid, Yoki, chen
Speaker 1: Cat and so. So I don't think it's realistic to
Speaker 1: look for one of those guys in every draft. More often,
Speaker 1: what we see is that the most valuable big men
Speaker 1: who are outside of that, oh my god, it's Yokich.
Speaker 1: Its embide tier is they're great defensive players and they're
Speaker 1: really good, efficient, versatile offensive players. I think Chet is
Speaker 1: that to the extreme. And yeah, I mean, I understand
Speaker 1: the weight thing, but I just think he is such
Speaker 1: a optimized modern center in every other way. So I'm
Speaker 1: very high on Chet. I think he's an exceptional, exceptional prospect.
Speaker 1: The wait thing just doesn't matter to me. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: first of all, I can't tell Hi how many times
Speaker 1: on tape I saw a player attempt to cave his
Speaker 1: chest in successfully do so, try to go up and
Speaker 1: then still he's just he's just so impossibly long, you know.
Speaker 1: I I I've heard the camp of you know, Rudy
Speaker 1: Gobert with offense, that's the one that everyone keeps throwing around.
Speaker 1: You know, in general, I think Robert Williams. The Celtics
Speaker 1: use Robert Williams is a great example of this too.
Speaker 1: Like you know, the truth of the matter is is
Speaker 1: there are not any defenders in the league except for
Speaker 1: maybe one or two that can successfully garden and beat
Speaker 1: or Yoki. So, like we're talking like Anthony Davis or
Speaker 1: Gobert or Janice might be the only three guys in
Speaker 1: the league that can go head up with a guy
Speaker 1: like that and contain them to a certain extent. So
Speaker 1: like the idea of Chet Homegron being able to guard
Speaker 1: those guys who cares like I don't expect anybody to
Speaker 1: I see them defensively. Uh, the way Boston used Robert
Speaker 1: Williams in the playoffs, I thought was really interesting, consistently
Speaker 1: putting him in a position where he can roam, where
Speaker 1: it's not about what he can do in an isolation situation.
Speaker 1: It's more just he's kind of flying around just making
Speaker 1: plays defensively. And I could see Chet, especially early in
Speaker 1: his career, when he doesn't have the physical tools to
Speaker 1: really hang in a in a bullyball situation, I could
Speaker 1: see him doing a lot of that roaming and most importantly,
Speaker 1: like you guys know, I'm super high on five out basketball.
Speaker 1: I think it's the best way to successfully allow your
Speaker 1: slashers to have opportunities to be comfortable on offense. And
Speaker 1: even like one of the subplots of the Finals was
Speaker 1: Robert Williams was playing so well defensively that they played
Speaker 1: him big minutes and consistently throughout the playoff run. Whenever
Speaker 1: Rob Williams was on the floor, the Celtics sucked on offense,
Speaker 1: and whenever he was whenever he was off the floor,
Speaker 1: they were great on offense. And the reason why is
Speaker 1: they went five out without Horford kind of tucked in
Speaker 1: the corner or atop of the key. So point being
Speaker 1: like having a center who can successfully do what Robert
Speaker 1: Williams does, but also has the ability to one stretch
Speaker 1: the floor in a five out situation to attack closeouts
Speaker 1: because that dude can put the basketball on the floor
Speaker 1: and make plays. I'm glad you pointed out his passing
Speaker 1: him getting all those reps in high schools an on
Speaker 1: ball player I think are so important in this specific situation.
Speaker 1: And most importantly, he could push the break at the
Speaker 1: rebound and bring the ball up the floor and hanging
Speaker 1: an up and down style of game because he has
Speaker 1: the foot speed, uh to be able to do that.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you, I'm I am very high on him.
Speaker 1: The thing again, like that concerns me, is I just
Speaker 1: I've seen way too many times that the guy who
Speaker 1: ends up determining these series is that top top, top
Speaker 1: end offensive talent. Now here's the thing. There's no guarantee
Speaker 1: that Paulo is gonna be mellow. You know, like, for instance,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of players around the league to
Speaker 1: have kind of similar skills. This is gonna don't take
Speaker 1: this comp seriously because it's not a direct comp. I'm
Speaker 1: just focusing on a specific thing. But Kyle Kuzma, for instance,
Speaker 1: doesn't didn't have a great first step and had these
Speaker 1: scoring flashes where when his jump shot was going and
Speaker 1: his handle was going, he looked like an All star.
Speaker 1: But his handle and jump shot were so inconsistent that
Speaker 1: he was monstrously inconsistent because he couldn't con instantly beat
Speaker 1: people off the dribble. So there's a lot up in
Speaker 1: the air for Paolo. And obviously he's a way better
Speaker 1: player than Kuzma was, but that similar dynamic I could
Speaker 1: see being an issue if he doesn't develop in that
Speaker 1: first five six years of his career, whereas Chet Holmgren,
Speaker 1: It's like Rudy Gobert With's offense is like a guaranteed
Speaker 1: floor for him. So like you you're you're gonna get
Speaker 1: that really high level play at him. So I do
Speaker 1: think you're. I guess I'll give you this. I think
Speaker 1: he's a safer number one overall pick. But I but
Speaker 1: I I think I personally would go for defences with
Speaker 1: with Paolo so Um. First of all, why in the
Speaker 1: world do you think Orlando wants to take Jabari Smith first?
Speaker 1: That's a really good question. And I don't know, because
Speaker 1: I think Jabari is really good. But I think he
Speaker 1: is a clear third guy to me. I do too,
Speaker 1: I do too. Like, I mean, he's right out the
Speaker 1: gates three and D guy right but like and he
Speaker 1: has a star ceiling. But like we were talking about
Speaker 1: how Paulo needs to develop his handle and become more
Speaker 1: system as a jump shooter. But like Jabari Smith's handle
Speaker 1: right now is weak by NBA standards. Um, I don't
Speaker 1: know if there's an NBA wing in the world right
Speaker 1: now that wouldn't have trouble holding him in his spot
Speaker 1: because of his weaker handle at this point, I you know,
Speaker 1: and what worries me is like, would you be the
Speaker 1: least bit shocked if Jabari Smith turned into Michael Bridges? Now,
Speaker 1: Michael Michael Bridges is a great basketball player. I think
Speaker 1: he finished second Defensive Player of the Year voting this
Speaker 1: year close to that. I can't remember exactly what it was.
Speaker 1: Michael Bridges is a great player. But what happened this
Speaker 1: year when Devin Booker started to struggle and Chris Paul
Speaker 1: basically went down, Like Michael Bridges wasn't capable of creating
Speaker 1: offense at a high enough level. And so, you know,
Speaker 1: my thing is like there's obviously a version of his
Speaker 1: story where he becomes a much much better player than
Speaker 1: he is. He's already a fantastic shooter with audacity rivaling
Speaker 1: the greatest shooters in the league. He just it's some
Speaker 1: of the footage on him, of him on tape. His
Speaker 1: coaches had to have been like, like, like, he will
Speaker 1: just dribble the ball off the floor, take contest at
Speaker 1: three is like not even not even off a step back,
Speaker 1: Like he'll just elevate and go because he's so much
Speaker 1: taller and more athletic than everybody, and it's it's it's
Speaker 1: super intriguing player. But I just see him having potentially
Speaker 1: the lowest floor out of these three guys, and that's
Speaker 1: what concerns me the most. That's interesting because I actually
Speaker 1: think his floor is a really good basketball player because
Speaker 1: of two things. He is such an exceptional shooter. I
Speaker 1: mean from deep at six ten, and like you said,
Speaker 1: it's off movement, it's from everywhere. It's ridiculous, it's highly
Speaker 1: contested all the time. He's an otherworldly shooter. So because
Speaker 1: of that, and because of the fact that he is
Speaker 1: a really good defensive toolbag seven one wing span, legitimate
Speaker 1: defensive playmaker, was over a steel and a block of game.
Speaker 1: Moves his feet really well, and as a high motor,
Speaker 1: he's a good positional rebounder. To me, it's like three. Indeed,
Speaker 1: he'll be very good. I don't see how he doesn't
Speaker 1: score fifteen a game efficiently and isn't a really good defender.
Speaker 1: Where I actually struggle beyond that is seeing the likely
Speaker 1: path for him to some sort of superstar ceiling. Because
Speaker 1: I understand that people look at the pure shot making
Speaker 1: and they think that it is durant Esk or whatever,
Speaker 1: like reminiscent of you know, the great Wings. The problem
Speaker 1: is he does not separate in any way because his
Speaker 1: first step is not remotely impressive for his position, and
Speaker 1: like you said, I mean, his handle is so far away.
Speaker 1: He's upright, it's awkward, it's not controlled, and he's not
Speaker 1: even close to a standout playmaker. He's not a good
Speaker 1: passer at this point. So it's like, yeah, the pure
Speaker 1: shot is there, but you need so much more than
Speaker 1: that if you're gonna be an offensive centerpiece as a wing.
Speaker 1: And I just think Jabari has a really long way
Speaker 1: to go, and it's not honestly easy for me to
Speaker 1: see him figuring all that out. Yeah he's he's clearly
Speaker 1: in the top three, but to me, he's clearly number three,
Speaker 1: and he's far too risky to take number one, Like
Speaker 1: how can you? How can? And there's there's all sorts
Speaker 1: of intel, like there's intel that Orlando might trade down
Speaker 1: to get him, and things along those lines. My thing
Speaker 1: is like with prospects like Chet and Paolo on the
Speaker 1: on the board, I don't know how you could go
Speaker 1: for a player like Jabar you you talk to the
Speaker 1: awkwardness is what stands out to me most on film,
Speaker 1: there is a you know, because we're gonna we're gonna
Speaker 1: get to this a little bit here in just a
Speaker 1: second with Jade and Ivy and Shade and sharp Um.
Speaker 1: But like, there's a there's a certain amount of polish
Speaker 1: in fluidity that separates the top level scores from the
Speaker 1: guys just beneath them. For instance, I'll give you like,
Speaker 1: on the top level, it's the difference between Kevin Durant
Speaker 1: and Lebron, Like, as Lebron is a very good score
Speaker 1: and he's the second best basketball player ever to play
Speaker 1: the game, but optically there's an obvious difference in fluidity
Speaker 1: between him and Kevin Durant and the smoothness with which
Speaker 1: he gets to his moves and it, and I do
Speaker 1: think that that does end up manifesting and something like
Speaker 1: I do think Kevin Duran's a better score than Lebron,
Speaker 1: not statistically because Lebron is more of a p hour player,
Speaker 1: but in terms of his like fluidity as a score,
Speaker 1: he has an edge there. And so I I just think,
Speaker 1: like in general, just like, and here's the other thing.
Speaker 1: Last thing, I'll say about the bars before we move forward.
Speaker 1: Handle in particular, there's a reason why there's so many
Speaker 1: great players around the league to half weak handles. It
Speaker 1: is the most tedious and boring thing to work on,
Speaker 1: and the progress is slow. Like it's very similar to
Speaker 1: jump shooting in that the progress is very slow, Like
Speaker 1: you have to shoot thousands of jumps. You have to
Speaker 1: shoot like a thousand jump shots every day every summer
Speaker 1: for years to get to the point where you're a functional,
Speaker 1: like dependable NBA three point shooter. The differences. It's fun
Speaker 1: to go up to the gym and shoot, you put
Speaker 1: some music on, you shoot all day. But like when
Speaker 1: when it comes to like doing legit ball handling drills
Speaker 1: at game speed, usually with usually it helps to have
Speaker 1: someone they're hitting you to add contact because handling, just
Speaker 1: ask Jalen Brown how easy it is to dribble when
Speaker 1: someone's hitting at your arm like you like you that
Speaker 1: that left. That type of development is so tedious that
Speaker 1: when I see a guy like Jabari Smith, I'm like,
Speaker 1: he's got so long to go for that handle to
Speaker 1: become functional that it just it just seems like more
Speaker 1: of a long shot to me. Regularly so go ahead.
Speaker 1: He regularly turns his back to the basket because he's
Speaker 1: so uncomfortable with his handle. And the last number I'll
Speaker 1: say that I think is trumbling with him is he
Speaker 1: was forty three and a half percent on two's. It's like,
Speaker 1: if you're gonna be a great score, you gotta get
Speaker 1: the easy stuff. You can have the beautiful, difficult shot
Speaker 1: making and the turnarounds and the crazy three's off movement
Speaker 1: or whatever, but you gotta be able to get to
Speaker 1: the rim. You gotta be able to get to the line.
Speaker 1: And he just really struggle. I mean, he's actually pretty
Speaker 1: crafty drawing fouls on jump shots, but like the easy stuff,
Speaker 1: exploding to the cup, just getting by people, getting those
Speaker 1: easy twos, he doesn't really do yet. So I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I think we have a lot of the same concerns
Speaker 1: about Jabari with his physical tools. That's inexcusable in terms
Speaker 1: of that load of percent. I shouldn't say an excuse,
Speaker 1: but it's just not a good sign. Um. I liked
Speaker 1: what you said earlier to where you're like, it's like
Speaker 1: he's not getting separation, he's just shooting over the top.
Speaker 1: And you see that a lot on like his post
Speaker 1: up fade aways where it's like a good post up
Speaker 1: fade away, you pound the basketball and hit someone in
Speaker 1: the chest to create initial separation, and then you spin
Speaker 1: either way into the shot. And usually if you get
Speaker 1: really good lift and you hit them hard enough, you'll
Speaker 1: not only get a shot off, you'll get a great,
Speaker 1: high quality fade away up. He kind of just turns
Speaker 1: and fires and he's getting smothered. He just happens to
Speaker 1: be so damn big and such a good shooter that
Speaker 1: he can knock some of them down. And I think
Speaker 1: that honestly leads to how he draws fouls. Um So,
Speaker 1: the two guys that I cut out, we're Keegan Murray
Speaker 1: and Ben Matherin. I think Ben Matherin is a lesser
Speaker 1: version of Shade and Sharper Jade and Ivy in a
Speaker 1: lot of different ways. And I'll explain why in a second.
Speaker 1: Kegan Murray to me, athletically, I think he's gonna have
Speaker 1: a lot of issues and and his heat to me.
Speaker 1: To me, he will be a very good NBA role player,
Speaker 1: but I just don't see him as having anywhere near
Speaker 1: the up side as these other guys have. So to me,
Speaker 1: it was a tough decision between Jade and Ivy or
Speaker 1: Shade and Sharp to go with number four, and I
Speaker 1: ended up I ended up going with Jade and Ivy,
Speaker 1: But I do think Shaden Sharp has a higher ceiling.
Speaker 1: What concerns me with Shaden Sharp is he kind of
Speaker 1: reminds me of Kevin Porter Jr. A little bit in
Speaker 1: the sense that the highlights and the flashes are so
Speaker 1: so good, but at the end of the day, he's
Speaker 1: addicted to the difficult jump shot. His shot profile is
Speaker 1: that of a uh like he hunts the most difficult
Speaker 1: shots on the floor, and he he kind of fits
Speaker 1: the profile of like the bigger athlete, but the one
Speaker 1: that's a little bit more thin and spindle e easily
Speaker 1: easier to knock off of his line, whereas Jade and
Speaker 1: Ivy is like that power athlete. And he almost reminds
Speaker 1: me of Dwyane Wade in the sense that his center
Speaker 1: of gravity is low. He takes these long steps, guys
Speaker 1: bounce off of him. When I talk about center of gravity,
Speaker 1: low center of gravity means it's it really is just
Speaker 1: like fancy speak for when you're on a line, if
Speaker 1: you run into somebody, do they bump off of you
Speaker 1: or do you bump off of them? Like to me
Speaker 1: that it's what brings power to athleticism, and I do
Speaker 1: think I think Jaden Ivy is the right kind of
Speaker 1: NBA athlete the combination of power with the low center
Speaker 1: of gravity, the vertical athleticism, and the size and length
Speaker 1: to be good. But I just don't think Jada Ivy
Speaker 1: is nearly is polished from the perimeter. Is Shaden sharp
Speaker 1: right now? But Jaden sharp? It's like, dude, how many
Speaker 1: times have we seen a guy like Kevin Porter Jr.
Speaker 1: Who has all the skill, who has the shot making,
Speaker 1: but for whatever reason, it just doesn't amount to an
Speaker 1: impactful basketball player. I also think Jade and Ivy is
Speaker 1: a better defensive player at this point. But what what's
Speaker 1: your initial takeaway on those two guys after that? I'll
Speaker 1: I'll ask you if you would replace them entirely. But
Speaker 1: with those two guys, what do you like dislike about them?
Speaker 1: And which one would you take over the other? I
Speaker 1: would take Ivy as well. I think he's a pretty
Speaker 1: clear fourth guy, and I think he's just got a
Speaker 1: lot of skill offensively. You know, you mentioned the athleticism,
Speaker 1: and I think he also has really nice change and pace.
Speaker 1: I think he maneuver's traffic really well. I just think
Speaker 1: he's like a great paint guard and he has the
Speaker 1: big time pull up jump shooting. His percentages weren't always great.
Speaker 1: We'll see exactly what they end up being at the league,
Speaker 1: but I mean, the shot creation is there, right. He
Speaker 1: can get the shot that he wants. It's just a
Speaker 1: matter of making it consistently. But in the lane, I
Speaker 1: just think he's crafty and he kind of gets what
Speaker 1: he wants. And I also think, you know, he probably
Speaker 1: has more of a playmaking ceiling. I think he's too
Speaker 1: chaotic as a passer right now is kind of the
Speaker 1: word I would describe. I don't think he always has
Speaker 1: a plan, but I think that that stuff will probably
Speaker 1: develop and sharp. I think is really interesting because I
Speaker 1: think he belongs in the top five. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, you know, he's kind of a bigger question
Speaker 1: mark just because we haven't seen him for a year.
Speaker 1: And I mean, he was the top prospect in the class,
Speaker 1: So you know, a guy like that always has the
Speaker 1: potential to be an absolute stud. It's just are going
Speaker 1: to naturally follow it when people don't see you, but
Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with a lot of you said
Speaker 1: really impressive athlete. I think that the jump shot with
Speaker 1: him is like very legitimate. I think it's kind of
Speaker 1: all the tools are there for him to be a
Speaker 1: really high level scoring wing. It's just strange when the
Speaker 1: last time you saw a guy play was you know,
Speaker 1: against high school talent. Like it's it's a weird dynamic
Speaker 1: with him. I still think his talent alone is evident
Speaker 1: on that tape where he should be fifth, but I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be comfortable taking him higher than that. To me,
Speaker 1: that not playing thing is a huge red flag, um.
Speaker 1: And I put that in my notes for Jade and Ivy,
Speaker 1: like like I would talked earlier about the four things
Speaker 1: that that are difficult or more difficult to scout and
Speaker 1: the reason why people have misses in front offices, and
Speaker 1: Jade and Ivy has this readily apparent competitive fire, like
Speaker 1: he attacks every basketball game, and I just kind of
Speaker 1: think about, like if I was in Shade and Sharp's
Speaker 1: position and I'm not And again I'm not trying. I'm
Speaker 1: just saying I disagree, so I'm not This might end
Speaker 1: up being the best decision he ever made to not play. Um.
Speaker 1: But like, there's no way in hell you're keeping me
Speaker 1: off of Like, if I'm healthy, I don't care if
Speaker 1: I've got an agent knocking down my door saying, hey, dude,
Speaker 1: don't play so you can get rich. I'm like, that's great.
Speaker 1: I want to play basketball and and I sure as
Speaker 1: how I want to play basketball for Kentuct, So get
Speaker 1: me out on that court it you know, But the
Speaker 1: the jump shot is the huge differentiator in terms of
Speaker 1: the skill sets right now, Like Jade and Ivy has
Speaker 1: just a little bit of a hitch and it's very
Speaker 1: in front of his face as opposed to up higher.
Speaker 1: What concerns me with that is he's he's getting it
Speaker 1: off now, but against dominant NBA perimeter athletes on the
Speaker 1: on the defensive end, I think that higher release point
Speaker 1: that's a little bit more fluid that Shade and Sharp
Speaker 1: has is a more realistic jump shot for him to
Speaker 1: be able to get off. Um. The problem. So, like
Speaker 1: I see on the low end, Jade and Ivy being
Speaker 1: kind of like a Eric Gordon type of player, like
Speaker 1: a box like like built like a fridge type of
Speaker 1: smaller guard who has a really good jump shot when
Speaker 1: he's set because like Eric Gordon. Everyone always jokes Eric
Speaker 1: Gordon has like the dream jump shot for him because
Speaker 1: his his elbow is perfectly tucked and it's very mechanical.
Speaker 1: But Eric Gordon had a slow release and Eric Gordon
Speaker 1: had a little bit of a hitch, and so as
Speaker 1: a result, he didn't have the ability to get as
Speaker 1: into his jump shot as fluidly as some of the
Speaker 1: better guards around the league do. So like it's it's
Speaker 1: a tough one for me, Like I would take Jade
Speaker 1: and Ivy, but I wouldn't be the least bits of
Speaker 1: I mean, Jaden Sharp has potential to be the best
Speaker 1: prospect in this entire class, Like everyone keeps comparing him.
Speaker 1: He himself compares himself to Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
Speaker 1: He's twice the athlete that either of those guys, and
Speaker 1: so like there's a version of that story with Shade
Speaker 1: and Sharp where he's flat out better than the than
Speaker 1: than any of those guys ever could be. So it's
Speaker 1: really interesting. So before we get out of here, I
Speaker 1: wanted to hear your opinion. What would what would your
Speaker 1: top five look like? And if you have a different
Speaker 1: guy in the top five than I did, give me
Speaker 1: your two cents on them, So the only switch for
Speaker 1: me would be chatting Palo. So I would go Chet
Speaker 1: one Palo to Jabari three, Ivy four, and then Sharp five.
Speaker 1: I think that Keegan Murray is interesting. I agree with
Speaker 1: you in terms of the athletic limitations. I mean, he
Speaker 1: is a beautiful, incredibly skilled offensive basketball player, and you know,
Speaker 1: a real defensive playmaker too, and like a versatile guy.
Speaker 1: I think he'll be really good at the next level.
Speaker 1: But he's old and he doesn't have a ton of
Speaker 1: room to grow, in my opinion, so I like him
Speaker 1: a lot, but I don't think he belongs in the
Speaker 1: top five mathroin is. I mean in terms of just
Speaker 1: if you're looking at two things, which is explosive athleticism
Speaker 1: and really impressive three point shooting which can kind of
Speaker 1: be the launching point for any wing, to just being
Speaker 1: a good player. He's got those two things in droves.
Speaker 1: I don't have quite as much confidence as him beyond that,
Speaker 1: compared to the the only guy who you didn't mention,
Speaker 1: I would say is in this same tier you had
Speaker 1: in a tier of seven, I would say there's a
Speaker 1: tier of eight, and I would include Dyson Daniels in
Speaker 1: that who was G League night guy, just because I
Speaker 1: think he's got really impressive feel for the game and
Speaker 1: I think it is really versatile. And he did not
Speaker 1: shoot the ball well from three, and he was twenty
Speaker 1: five percent in the G League over fourteen games. That's
Speaker 1: to me kind of the only issue. I mean, it
Speaker 1: does look okay, and yeah, I just think defensively, I mean,
Speaker 1: he projects well, he's got good size, he's a pretty
Speaker 1: good athlete. You know, he's not mathroin levels certainly, but
Speaker 1: and then he has like real playmaking feel where you
Speaker 1: see him having these close to triple double games and
Speaker 1: he can just kind of control things as a wing.
Speaker 1: So those would be my couple guys. But I agree
Speaker 1: with the top five. I think that sharp ceiling is
Speaker 1: too high to leave him off because after that, it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, the best version of Keegan Murray or of
Speaker 1: Dyson Daniels. I just don't think it can approach the
Speaker 1: best version of Sharp with that blend of pure athletic
Speaker 1: is um and shot making. Yeah, no, I agree, I
Speaker 1: I'll I think Dison Dyson Daniels probably belongs in this
Speaker 1: list as well. I allowed that. I uh, I I
Speaker 1: must have been doing something right, Carson, because our list
Speaker 1: looks pretty similar. And I take that and I respect
Speaker 1: your opinion very much. One last note before we get
Speaker 1: out of here that one of the things that impressed
Speaker 1: me so much about Keegan Murray that I think is
Speaker 1: gonna be a really, uh powerful weapon at the NBA level.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I've ever seen a young basketball player,
Speaker 1: and I know he's older than typical college players, but
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I've ever seen a young player other
Speaker 1: than post players, because you'll see guys, you know, guys
Speaker 1: like Julia Locaffer that have this type of skill set.
Speaker 1: But it's very rare to see a young basketball player
Speaker 1: who's primarily a wing, even though he's kind of like
Speaker 1: a wing big kind of uh like Palo Is, who's
Speaker 1: this comfortable with his back to the basket. He he
Speaker 1: can turn over both shoulders, he can keep his dribble alive.
Speaker 1: He's really good at finishing over the top of smaller
Speaker 1: defenders when he's closer to the basket with those like
Speaker 1: classic bank shots, like half hook bank shots. And then
Speaker 1: he's incredible with deep seals, like he's very good at
Speaker 1: obtaining quick post position and then getting a catch and
Speaker 1: quickly scoring, making himself available for a post entry in
Speaker 1: a quick score that I think he's the kind of
Speaker 1: guy that like I could see a guy like he can.
Speaker 1: He won't make it to Golden State, but I could
Speaker 1: see a guy like that thriving for a really smart
Speaker 1: basketball team that is good at getting players like him
Speaker 1: easy opportunities elsewhere on the floor. UM. Alright, guys, that
Speaker 1: is all we have for today. Carson, you were amazing.
Speaker 1: That was exactly what I was hoping to get from
Speaker 1: you today and you knocked it out of the park. UM.
Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate your guys support, enjoy the draft,
Speaker 1: and we will see you guys, probably on Friday or Saturday.
Speaker 1: The volume