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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing into I'm sitting up

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Speaker 3: to cash.

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Speaker 2: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 2: to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible, big bank small.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate kabinet and we are What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 2: the King of sports books. I'm your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 2: This is your NFL Week number ten of betting preview.

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Speaker 2: We will discuss our favorite size totals, teasers, survivor picks,

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Speaker 2: underdog money lines, and of course crack open our weekly

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack of against the spread bets. I'll do

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Speaker 2: it with the help of my co host, The Prime Minute.

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Speaker 2: They're of Degenerate Nation, stucky, stuck.

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Speaker 3: What's up?

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Speaker 2: Man?

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Speaker 3: Good good, good week.

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Speaker 2: Last week came so close to sleep in Dallas and

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Speaker 2: had ended up with that Houston two and a half

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Speaker 2: just didn't get there. But good week, so good ship.

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Speaker 4: It was a good week for the pod. I never

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Speaker 4: want to talk about last Sunday ever. Again, that was

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Speaker 4: probably the most painful group of losses that I've ever had.

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Speaker 4: I mean Dallas putting up like five hundred yards offense.

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Speaker 4: Game went exactly how I like projected, Dak eating ceed

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Speaker 4: Lamb and Ferguson destroying the Eagles in the slot, moving

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Speaker 4: up and down the field, Dallas offensive line controlling the game,

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Speaker 4: and they have they get six points in four drives

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Speaker 4: inside the thirty to end the game. Jack steps out

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Speaker 4: of bounds, just needed the two points to push. They

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Speaker 4: could stop at the one, either at the five, and

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Speaker 4: the game. I mean it was excruciating three fumbles that

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Speaker 4: the Eagles recover, I mean, just every break possible in

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Speaker 4: that game, and the Cowboys still should have won. And

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Speaker 4: then you had the Texans, who out gain average eight

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Speaker 4: yards per play out game the Bucks by two hundred yards,

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Speaker 4: but don't know the kicker so can't kick the extra point.

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Speaker 4: The Panthers can't get home for our teas even though

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Speaker 4: they held the The Colts had under two hundred yards offense.

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Speaker 4: Teams but underwo hundred yards offense were one and thirty

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Speaker 4: six straight up in the over the last thirty seven games,

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Speaker 4: and the Panthers couldn't even cover eight a half because

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Speaker 4: they threw two pick sixes and Bryce Gomes another pick

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Speaker 4: at the end of the game and was there one?

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Speaker 3: Was there something else? As always over the over?

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Speaker 2: You had like twenty one first quarter points in the

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Speaker 2: I mean not for the pod, but I think you

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Speaker 2: had the over on a Bengal was over. Yeah, that

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Speaker 2: was going like way over and then it just died out.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it was.

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Speaker 4: It was a painful week of some losses, but at

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Speaker 4: least there was some easy wins like the Chiefs and Role.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, there were some just excruciating losses. So we've

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Speaker 4: had some we thought some horrendous beats on the six pack,

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Speaker 4: like your safety. The Ravens get the Cardinals last week,

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys and Texans, so that's a good sign going

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Speaker 4: forward for some positive errands. But as always, we're on

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Speaker 4: the next week. Let's get to week ten.

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Speaker 3: Let's do it.

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Speaker 2: And before we jump into Thursday Night Football, just a

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Speaker 2: reminder that Sean Kerner, our guy, the odds maker, will

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Speaker 2: be chopping it up with everybody on the Free Action

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Speaker 2: Network Discord server as usual this week during Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: If you're looking for a place to ask him and

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Speaker 2: many of our other experts your questions about fantasy props, betting, whatever,

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Speaker 2: or you just want to hang out with out the

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Speaker 2: Gambers during the game. Join the Action Network discord for

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Speaker 2: free bye following the link in this episode description. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's get right into the Thursday Night Football preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: And we got the Panthers going to Chicago to take

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Speaker 2: on the Bears. Bears favored by three and a half,

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Speaker 2: the totals down to thirty eight and a half. Looks

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Speaker 2: like it's gonna be Tyson Beagent going up against Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young here. This is you know, you and I talked

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Speaker 2: about this on Happy Hour. There's just a lot of

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Speaker 2: bad quarterbacks in the league this year, you know, a

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Speaker 2: lot of backups and young guys inexperience got starting.

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Speaker 3: And I mean for.

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Speaker 2: Tyson Beage it to be getting three, to be laying

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Speaker 2: three and a half, that's that seems a bit much.

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Speaker 2: But I mean the Panthers have been horrible. So how

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Speaker 2: are you feeling about this one? Yeah, I look for

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Speaker 2: reasons not to bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 4: I mean, just look at this game. I'm not betting

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Speaker 4: this game. There's no chance I'm backing Beijing as a favorite.

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Speaker 4: There's no chance I'm trusting Bryce in this Panthers offense

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Speaker 4: right now. Some of the pick sixes that he had

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Speaker 4: also were just gifts, like just elementary throws. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: this is an easy, easy pass for me. I have

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Speaker 4: no interest in betting, and I think I show a

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Speaker 4: little bit of value on the Panthers with pagent starting.

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Speaker 3: But so if I had a bet, I would bet.

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Speaker 4: The Panthers a fun prop if you have like five bucks,

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Speaker 4: throw it on tie. This is the type of game

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Speaker 4: that would ended in time, and it's actually beneficial to

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Speaker 4: the Bears. Right if the Bears were like a Swart organization,

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Speaker 4: but they're not, they like traded basically a second round

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Speaker 4: pick for Sweat and a second round pick for Chase Claypool.

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Speaker 4: But the a tie would help them. This is the

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Speaker 4: draft celebration for Bears fans. They have the third pick

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Speaker 4: right now, the Panthers are the second pick. The Bears

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Speaker 4: have the Panthers pick, so any win will hurt their

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Speaker 4: draft positioning. So actually a tie is the most beneficial

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Speaker 4: outcome for Chicago. So yeah, I know I'm reach when

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Speaker 4: I'm talking about a tie in draft positioning, and no,

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Speaker 4: I am nothing. I don't want to talk about this game. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean maybe.

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Speaker 2: Bet over time too that that's kind of the next

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Speaker 2: best thing a little more likely.

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Speaker 3: Uh but I agree. I mean the.

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Speaker 2: Panthers are the right side, I think. But I said

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Speaker 2: it before the season. I'm not betting on the Panthers

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Speaker 2: like pretty much this year.

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Speaker 3: And it's worked out.

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Speaker 2: Well, what do they have one cover this so far

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Speaker 2: this year? Uh so, yeah, that's that's worked out.

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Speaker 3: Last year.

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Speaker 2: I was the Panthers whisper. This year just straight faded them.

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Speaker 3: You take your mouth shut, just refuse to whisper.

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Speaker 2: I refuse, Like it's there's it's a certain things like

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Speaker 2: I have a part of my handicapping is and I

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Speaker 2: think you're like this too, Like I can see the

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Speaker 2: negative sometimes better than I can even see the positive,

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Speaker 2: which is kind of exactly backwards from how I live

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Speaker 2: my life. And I'm tend to be optimistic. But what

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Speaker 2: I could just see the Panthers like face planning, like

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Speaker 2: it was just Frank Wright the Farer is just bad organization, man.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, you can't you can't wait point. You

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Speaker 2: can't wait three and a half with pagents. So I

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Speaker 2: guess primetime unders you know, they continue to kill. Non

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Speaker 2: divisional primetime unders that drop more than one point are

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Speaker 2: fifty four and twenty three, seventy percent since twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 2: including seven and three this season. So that's probably your

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Speaker 2: best bet if you're looking to get some action on

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Speaker 2: this game. All right, let's jump right into the week

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Speaker 2: number ten Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: All right, So good week for US thirty four to

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Speaker 2: thirty close race, You, sir, are up first in week

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Speaker 2: number ten.

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Speaker 3: There you go.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 4: For my first pick of the week ten Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with the Houston Texans. Plus seven minus one

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Speaker 4: fifteen is out there. It doesn't matter for this contest

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Speaker 4: pushes or losses, but I would look for the seven.

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Speaker 4: Obviously a key number. Minus one fifteen is fine, which

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Speaker 4: is out there. This number has come down a bit.

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Speaker 4: There's questions about Jamar Chase and his availability.

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Speaker 3: I think we'll probably give it a go.

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Speaker 4: He might not be at one hundred percent in that

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Speaker 4: back could flare up at any time. That was another

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Speaker 4: thing that killed the over last week. And if Burrow

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Speaker 4: just let him, he would walk in for a touchdown

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Speaker 4: instead he gets hurt. Like talk about a massive swing there.

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Speaker 4: But this is on paper just number one. It's a

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Speaker 4: bad spot for the Bengals. You know, they come off

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Speaker 4: that big win against Buffalo, they have Baltimore on deck,

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Speaker 4: and now you're Houston. You're hosting Houston, so it could

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Speaker 4: be maybe a little bit sleepy here. But more importantly,

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Speaker 4: I just think this Houston offense and CJ. Stroud are

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Speaker 4: undervalued in the market. Like this offense when they actually

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Speaker 4: come out and throw it, like looking back at that

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Speaker 4: Panthers game, I don't know what they're doing. They can't

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Speaker 4: run the ball. I think if you go by Dvoa

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Speaker 4: the thirty first in rush offense, third and pass offense.

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Speaker 4: I mean, CJ. Stroud is amazing, Tank Dell is amazing,

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Speaker 4: Nico Co. I mean this offense can tear up any secondary,

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Speaker 4: including this Bengal. I mean, look, the Bengals defense I

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Speaker 4: think is one of the more They have a great coordinator,

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Speaker 4: but it's more one of the more overrated units in

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Speaker 4: the NFL. I don't love their secondary. Their safeties have

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Speaker 4: taken a massive step back after last season, and if

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Speaker 4: you remember last season, they faced about ten backup quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: throughout the division and just throughout the entire season. Almost

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Speaker 4: lost to a backup quarterback in the playoffs. And this

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Speaker 4: season they have been extremely fortunate on defense, especially in

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Speaker 4: the red zone.

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Speaker 3: Go back the.

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Speaker 4: Last three weeks, gives the forty nine ers, you know,

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Speaker 4: you get the they give up four hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: yards of the forty nine ers, get a McCaffrey fumble

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Speaker 4: inside the ten wins that ever happened, You had a

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Speaker 4: you know that fluky defensive lineman pick. Go back to

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Speaker 4: the Seattle game. They're in the reds on the entire

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Speaker 4: game that game, since a boy two hundred yards they

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Speaker 4: couldn't get punched in the end zone. And then last

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Speaker 4: week you have another fumble in the red zone. I mean,

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Speaker 4: this is happening all year. If you look at the

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Speaker 4: Bengals from a metrics pure metrics standpoint, their defense middle

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Speaker 4: of the road. If you remove turnovers twenty fifth EPA

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Speaker 4: per play, twenty third dropback EPA, this defense is vulnerable.

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Speaker 4: They've been getting away with it because of turnovers and

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Speaker 4: failed red zone execution. I think that there's some major

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Speaker 4: regression coming and this is the perfect offense to come

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Speaker 4: in here and do it. You know, Chase being banged

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Speaker 4: up will only hurt the Texans. And look, if the

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Speaker 4: Texans come out and try to run it, I hope not.

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Speaker 4: I hope that that Bobby Slovan has learned his lesson

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Speaker 4: and they get behind, that's fine for this game. Script

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Speaker 4: like they can keep up. And then that's when since

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Speaker 4: he gets too conservative when they're up and they start

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Speaker 4: running it too much. So even if they get behind early,

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Speaker 4: because look, the Bengals offense is bad. I mean, Burrow

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Speaker 4: is all the way back. I think if you look average,

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Speaker 4: you know, yards over replacement adjusted for defense over the

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Speaker 4: first I think six weeks Burrow two total yards over

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Speaker 4: replacement level quarterback we Gate one hundred and ninety four,

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Speaker 4: Week nine one hundred and sixty five. So Burrows all

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Speaker 4: the way back. This Bengals offense should be able to

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Speaker 4: put up points. But you know, Chase not being hundredsent

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Speaker 4: healthy will definitely hurt. And this is a bad spot,

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Speaker 4: and I don't think the Texans offense is getting enough respect.

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Speaker 4: Throw in the looming Bengals regression on defense, and I

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Speaker 4: think that the Texans can keep this within a score.

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Speaker 4: Wouldn't even be shocked if they gave the Bengals a scare,

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Speaker 4: pulled off this upset. Yeah, let's go with the Houston

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Speaker 4: Texans and c J. Stroud, who's just who's having one

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Speaker 4: of the greatest rookie seasons of all time for any

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Speaker 4: quarterback statistically. So yeah, give me the Texans.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well detect since uh, I mean c J. Stroud

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Speaker 2: is just it's other, like his upside now is it's

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Speaker 2: it's growing. Like I'm not gonna say Mahomes because he's

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Speaker 2: in a different planet, but it's like that next tier

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Speaker 2: like that, his upside is already there, you know, Like

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Speaker 2: what he did in that uh in that game against

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Speaker 2: the Bucks, I mean the pinpoint throws, like the the

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Speaker 2: throwing with the anticipation, the accuracy, I mean it was

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Speaker 2: just the like the clutchess not having a kicker. I mean, Jesus,

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Speaker 2: this guy can.

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Speaker 4: Tank Dell by the way, he's got a future. He's

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Speaker 4: got my guy, bro. I loved him in college. I

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Speaker 4: love Tank Dell at Houston. He's got future all pro potential.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, like I I remember for the Fantasy for

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Speaker 2: Fantasy flex I you know, I saw the first Texan

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Speaker 2: preseason game, and that was playing a ton in the

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Speaker 2: first half or maybe it was the second game, one

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Speaker 2: of the one of the too, but the first time

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Speaker 2: he played and I was like, this, dude is already

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Speaker 2: the best receiver on at Texans. And like, you're just

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Speaker 2: seeing that playout Because as much credit as we got

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Speaker 2: to give the Stroud, Tank Dell got open on that

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Speaker 2: sideline route to get him that long game, to get

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Speaker 2: him in scoring position and he got that was you split,

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Speaker 2: you know, two defenders.

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Speaker 3: In the end of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like that, So like that doesn't happen without Tank

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Speaker 2: Dell as well. But what I think what you're seeing

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Speaker 2: with Stroud too is he's just made star quarterbacks make

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Speaker 2: all the receivers look like stars. And I think Dell

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Speaker 2: is a star. But you know, look at Nico now

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Speaker 2: Nico is you know, he's always solid, but now he's

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Speaker 2: putting up you know, top twenty fantasy numbers.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 3: Noah Brown had like what one hundred and fifty yard game.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's Dalton Schultz had more yards and than

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Speaker 2: he ever had on Dallas. I mean it's it's yeah, uh,

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Speaker 2: this this is one of the few offenses that can

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Speaker 2: go toe to toe with the with the healthy Bengals, team,

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Speaker 2: and you know, maybe they're not healthy like you said, because.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and by the way, the tech people are like,

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Speaker 4: the right call was not kicking extra point. You don't

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Speaker 4: have to kick here, you can't return, but people forget that.

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Speaker 4: And then I had to watch the Eagles recover all

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Speaker 4: three fumbles.

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Speaker 3: They're in territory. But the Texas had three guys.

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Speaker 4: Around the fumble to end the game and they didn't

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Speaker 4: get it and it's somehow bounced right to no Mike

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Speaker 4: Evans and then it wouldn't have mattered if they went

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Speaker 4: down and scored. So that's it made it even more brutal.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I like the Texans. Here where you going first?

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Speaker 2: So I haven't done this much this year, but we

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Speaker 2: are going back to the New England Patriots plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half in where's it London? In London against

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Speaker 2: the Indianapolis Colts. I'm in Germany, I think, by the way,

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Speaker 2: nothing Oh sorry, sorry I said, I said London. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Frankfurt International, NFL International Series. It'll be on six thirty Pacific,

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Speaker 2: nine thirty Eastern, so bright and early in Germany. It's

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Speaker 2: Indianapolis on defense. You know what they do, Gus Bradley

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Speaker 2: Defense they played the most zone in the entire NFL. Well,

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Speaker 2: New England, we know their passing game isn't great. They're

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Speaker 2: your receiving corps isn't great, although Douglas is starting to

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Speaker 2: come on a little bit. But New England dead last

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Speaker 2: in adjusted yards per attempt versus man coverage, as you

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Speaker 2: would expect, but versus zone coverage, they're above average. You're

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Speaker 2: actually thirteenth, about three more yards per against zone than

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Speaker 2: against man. And the Colts, more than any other team,

295
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Speaker 2: are almost guaranteed not to switch up your ski and

296
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Speaker 2: they just don't do it. They just sit back. They

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Speaker 2: don't really blitz. They just play zone coverage. They've done

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Speaker 2: it over eighty percent of the time this year. It's

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Speaker 2: just eighty nine percent zone. They would cover three to

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Speaker 2: fifty league high cover four, twenty four percent cover six.

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Speaker 2: The mix of those, so the eighty nine man eleven

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Speaker 2: that's the same exactly splits as the Panthers, and those

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Speaker 2: are the two highest.

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Speaker 4: There's just no man. Viking's kind of the same way.

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Speaker 4: There's just no man defense at all.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and well why is it even better? Because not

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Speaker 2: only is it a good matchup for the New England offense,

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Speaker 2: and I say I tread lightly, you know, good matchup,

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Speaker 2: but uh, New England's also seen the second most man

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Speaker 2: coverage this year, you know, from other defenses. So you're

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Speaker 2: getting value in the sense that New England's offensive numbers

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Speaker 2: are coming against you know, a much higher rate of

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Speaker 2: man coverage than we average, if that makes sense, because

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Speaker 2: you know that's the way you play in New England.

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Speaker 2: But we know Gus Browley just doesn't do that, like

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Speaker 2: they just they're gonna they're gonna play their scheme, and

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Speaker 2: especially coming off a really good game in their scheme

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Speaker 2: against Bryce Young last week, so like the matchup there.

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Speaker 2: And then also Indianapolis defense been pretty solid about league

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Speaker 2: average overall in terms of the numbers, but twenty third

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Speaker 2: in run defense DVA, so you let New England run

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Speaker 2: the ball a little bit too. So this is this

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Speaker 2: is a great matchup for New England's offense, which you

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Speaker 2: don't really get much of that you know this year

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Speaker 2: with with with what's going on this team. And then

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Speaker 2: on the other side, you have a quarterback and Gardner

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Speaker 2: Minshew one of the few quarterbacks that is more likely

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Speaker 2: than Mac Jones to have a negative play. Gardner Minshew's

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Speaker 2: six point three percent turnover worthy play rate, third in

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Speaker 2: the league. Matt Jones is five.

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Speaker 3: Point two percent, so he's fifth.

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Speaker 2: So you have one of the few quarterbacks that's you know,

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Speaker 2: that's more turnover prone than Mac Jones, even though not

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Speaker 2: all the turnovers are Jones' fault.

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Speaker 3: But uh.

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Speaker 2: And then you have the New England defense sixth in

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Speaker 2: EPA per rush, third in rush success rate, and on

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Speaker 2: early downs they're fourth in EPA per rush and second

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Speaker 2: in early down rush success rate. So this New England

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Speaker 2: defense can still stop the run, which is what the

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Speaker 2: Coats are going to lean on with Jonathan Taylor and

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Speaker 2: Zach Moss. And they had, like you said, they had

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Speaker 2: under two hundred yards of offense last week. They couldn't

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Speaker 2: run the ball on the Panthers, which was I think

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Speaker 2: pretty concerning for their offense. So, you know, fading Gardner

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Speaker 2: Minshew here in this in this code offense. Minshew's four

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Speaker 2: and fifteen against the spread in his last nineteen starts.

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Speaker 2: Again another quarterback that's been you know, just as batter

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Speaker 2: worse than Mac Jones, because you know, I know I

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Speaker 2: talked about Jones's record against the spread last week when

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Speaker 2: we faded faded the Pats with Washington. But yeah, love

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Speaker 2: the matchup for New England. So neutral, neutral field, no

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Speaker 2: home field for the Coat. You know this is this

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Speaker 2: is close to a coin flip game for me. I'll

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Speaker 2: take the one and a half.

356
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Speaker 3: Yeah, don't hate it.

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Speaker 4: Also thing on this game later for my second pick

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Speaker 4: and the third overall the week ten Sunday six pack,

359
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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Green Bay Packers against the

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 3: I three anything three or above is fine.

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Speaker 4: Three and a half minus one, fifteen minus one, twenty

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Speaker 4: year out there as when we're doing this, I would

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Speaker 4: pay for that because there's a good chance that this

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Speaker 4: game could land on the field goal. I actually had

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Speaker 4: the Packers rated ahead of the Steelers in my Power

367
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Speaker 4: ratings throwing hand home field. I have the Steelers as

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Speaker 4: a small favor getting a field goal or above in

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Speaker 4: this matchup.

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Speaker 3: I have to take it.

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Speaker 4: Look, the Steelers I don't really think should be a

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Speaker 4: field goal favorite over anybody in the league that is

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Speaker 4: not named the New York Giants. Right now, they look,

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Speaker 4: I know they have five wins on the season. They

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Speaker 4: are number one.

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Speaker 3: In our left rankings.

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Speaker 4: Look you, I'll shout out to Nick Giffen and company

378
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Speaker 4: for Currenter for our Luck rankings, and it's a really

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Speaker 4: good tool just to kind of sum up a picture

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Speaker 4: of everything that I look at as far as which

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Speaker 4: teams are getting lucky, which teams might be over or

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00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 4: underinflated in the market. Talked about Cincinnati, talk about the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: Eagles I think are number two now in the luck rankings,

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Speaker 4: two or three.

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Speaker 3: Steelers are number one going away.

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Speaker 4: I mean, this team, based on how they performed, should

387
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Speaker 4: have two wins. They have thirty five percent went they're

388
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Speaker 4: win percent, just thirty five percent higher than how they've performed.

389
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Speaker 4: And look some of the other advanced metrics, you'll see

390
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Speaker 4: the Steelers a bit higher than the Packers. That's because

391
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Speaker 4: their schedule has been tough. But like getting the multiple

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Speaker 4: defensive touchdowns against the Browns, these things are not sustainable.

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Speaker 4: The Ravens having a million drops and Lamar just throwing

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Speaker 4: it to the mienzone. I mean, it is insane the

395
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Speaker 4: breaks the Steelers team has gotten. They are what on

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Speaker 4: five to zero in one score games, expected record, expected

397
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Speaker 4: wins of two, and if you go back to twenty

398
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Speaker 4: twenty and twenty twenty one, interestingly, enough the Steelers. We're

399
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Speaker 4: thirteen and three combined, number one on our luck rankings

400
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Speaker 4: at that point, and people are like, oh, it's a

401
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 4: Steelers and a Tomlin thing. Well, then they would win

402
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 4: every game and win every Super Bowl. They finished eight

403
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 4: eight and one after that point against the softest schedule two.

404
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 3: Packers.

405
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Speaker 4: On the other hand, they're thirtieth in those luck rankings.

406
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Speaker 4: One in three and one score games. They have three

407
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Speaker 4: losses by combined seven points. Aaron Jones back to full health.

408
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 4: He should get a full workload now. From everything that

409
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Speaker 4: I've read, Steelers offense is still an absolute disaster. Forty

410
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,959
Speaker 4: seven percent of their possessions go three and out. Forty

411
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Speaker 4: seven That's outrageous. Did I think the next worst thing?

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Speaker 4: And the Packers are bad too, but there's like thirty

413
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Speaker 4: seven percent. Just to illustrate how bad the Steelers offense

414
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Speaker 4: actually is. They have one play. They just try to

415
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Speaker 4: throw it down the sidelines to the Pickens. I mean,

416
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Speaker 4: Johnson being back helps a little bit, but it's still

417
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Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett laying over field. All I bought to three

418
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 4: and a half minus one fifteen. Absolutely no brainer play

419
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Speaker 4: for me with Green Bay. This is also a classic

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Speaker 4: Tomlin nonspot where his teams come out a little flat

421
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Speaker 4: and against the team under five hundred. But I make

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Speaker 4: this round one, so I'm glad. I'm happily took three

423
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Speaker 4: and a half minus one fifteen with the Packers against

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Speaker 4: a Steelers team that is just a ton of regression

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Speaker 4: coming its way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I was thinking about this because I

427
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Speaker 2: agree this like this is just another example of these

428
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Speaker 2: bad quarterbacks. And you can say there's bad quarterbacks on

429
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Speaker 2: both sides, I mean, depending on how you're gonna be.

430
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Speaker 2: I know Jordan U hasn't exactly WoT it up, but.

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Speaker 4: They're basically equal quarterbacks. Yeah, equal defenses. Packers play a

432
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 4: little better offensive line, a little better running back. Steelers

433
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 4: made a little better wide receivers. These teams are so

434
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: equal and actually at the Packers a smidg ahead. So

435
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 4: getting over a field goal at three and a half

436
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 4: in a game that could be ugly, ugly ugly. And look,

437
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 4: the Packers have been awful in the first halves. Didn't

438
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 4: bite them last week because guess what they were playing

439
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 4: the Rams and Brent Rippen, if they get off to

440
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 4: the slow start here won't bite them either. They're playing

441
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett, Right, so you can survive a slow start

442
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 4: if that's the case.

443
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, keeping green back.

444
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is again Kenny Pickett getting you know,

445
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 2: laying three three and a half, you know at some spots.

446
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: I mean we're not saying that, you know, Jordan Love

447
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: and his Packer team is amazing or it's just you

448
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 2: can't just look at these lines and say, okay, well

449
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: steers are at home home field advantage, you know that

450
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: data right side, Like, no, like, just take these opportunities

451
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: to fade these quarterbacks when you know they're getting they're

452
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: laying you know, points like a field goal or more

453
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: at home.

454
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 3: Anything on the road.

455
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 2: I mean there's a like there's we'll talk about, you know,

456
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 2: a lot of quarter Like there's some quarterbacks, uh, you know,

457
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 2: bad quarterbacks laying points on the road. So it's it's

458
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: just it's been a wild year. I mean just so

459
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,959
Speaker 2: many backup quarterbacks and it's like backups and backups are

460
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,719
Speaker 2: getting backups are getting hurt, and backups and backups are

461
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: coming in. So, speaking of which, for my second pick

462
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 2: of the week ten Sunday six pack, I'm going with

463
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 2: the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half at home

464
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 2: against the New Orleans Saints. And you know, these both

465
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: of these teams are five and four, kind of surprising

466
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 2: based on the way Minnesota started the year. But you know,

467
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 2: even with Josh Dobbs, who, by the way, you know,

468
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 2: played amazingly last week.

469
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 3: But I think the prep no pro no prep snap

470
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 3: well amazing. Yeah.

471
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 5: And I mean some of his scrambles, like it was

472
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 5: like I haven't seen Michael Vick mick some like it's

473
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 5: gonna play to some of those scramblers, like the one

474
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 5: where he just like flew across the first down marker

475
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 5: on third and like twenty or something like.

476
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 3: I mean, it was it was nuts.

477
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 2: But that is going I think that's gonna be a

478
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: problem for the Saints because the Saints have a lot

479
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 2: of the second most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. So

480
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 2: that is one of the ways he beat them. Because

481
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 2: the Saints like to play man coverage, and you know

482
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 2: that their outside corners are pretty good, so you have

483
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 2: to you know kind of you know, the backs are

484
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 2: gonna be turned. That's that's what you That's where you

485
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: can get yardage. Uh, you know, on the ground, you

486
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 2: can and you could go over the middle so support

487
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 2: and I have a guy like Hockinson uh as well.

488
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 2: But when I look at this, when I look at

489
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: these teams, I think it's time to fade New Orleans

490
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 2: because look at New Orleans' schedule this year and in

491
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,719
Speaker 2: compare it to minis Oda and look at who New

492
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 2: Orleans beat. New Orleans beat Carolina Green They lost to

493
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 2: Green Bay by a point. They beat the Titans by

494
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: a point, and Ryan Tannehill is probably one of the

495
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: worst games. That's not the worst game he's ever played.

496
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: They beat the Panthers by three, just three, but he's.

497
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 3: Also at a defensive touchdown that wasn't called in that game. Yep, yep. Uh.

498
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 2: They they then they get the Patriots at the you know,

499
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: at the right time, so they blow them out. They

500
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: beat the Colts, who you know, we just talked about,

501
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 2: you know, not not a very good team.

502
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 4: Uh.

503
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 2: And then they beat the Tyson Bagent Bear. So they

504
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: beat Tyson Baigent Gardner, Minshew Matt Jones, Rice Young, and

505
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 2: Ryan Tanner.

506
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 4: By the way, they had Falcons, Panthers, Giants, Rams coming up.

507
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, like this, it it's gonna be very interesting. Yeah,

508
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 2: I mean we talked about like this, this is this

509
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: whole division schedules super easy. But this team, you know,

510
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 2: lost to the Green Bay Packers, lost to the Bucks

511
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: by seventeen. You know, they lose to the Texas, which

512
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 2: doesn't look as bad anymore. But you look at this

513
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: team on the road and you know, like this is

514
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: I think this is where they they're gonna get into

515
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 2: trouble because Derek Carr in his career on the road

516
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: coming off a win eleven and twenty two against the spread,

517
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 2: one and eight as a favorite, Dennis Allen as a

518
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 2: favorite five fourteen and one against the spread twenty six percent.

519
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: So I already think it's a letdown spot for these Saints.

520
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,479
Speaker 2: But let's look at what happened last week. They got

521
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: out gained three sixty eight to three zero one by

522
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 2: the Tyson Bayjentt led Bears.

523
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 3: They've been getting super.

524
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 2: Lucky with turnovers in every game, and we know the

525
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: Vikings have been one of the most unlucky teams with turnovers.

526
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: So you know, even last week, I mean Dobbs safety

527
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: salt like it's like three turnovers the minie comes into game.

528
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 2: So you know, I think there's gonna be some regress there.

529
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 2: And you look at Derek carversus the blitz, and Flores

530
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 2: has his defense playing well. Like to say, everyone talks

531
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 2: about the Saints defense, they're ninth and Dvoa.

532
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 3: You know who's tenth, the Minnesota Viking.

533
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 2: So these teams are pretty much equal on defense, and

534
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 2: car outside the top twenty against the blitz. He's twenty

535
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 2: third and passer rating twenty fourth in PFF grade against

536
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 2: the blitz. That's what we know Flores is gonna do.

537
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 2: And a lot of these Saints losses this year have

538
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: come against teams that blitz Derek Carr and you know

539
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 2: the games they've had the most success against, like look

540
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: at the Coats. You know, they put up what five

541
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 2: hundred yards of offense on the coast because the coach

542
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 2: just sit back and don't blitz. And so I think

543
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: the I think the Saints team, you know, is a

544
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: somewhat of something of a paper tiger here. And I

545
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: look at this Minnesota team and look who they played,

546
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: and I know, you know, there's a lot of different players.

547
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: You know, obviously Cousins not here, but Minnesota played Philadelphia,

548
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 2: the Chargers, the Chiefs, Niners.

549
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 3: Who they beat.

550
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: You know, it's it's not it's it's really a tale

551
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 2: of two schedules for these two teams. So for the

552
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 2: Vikings to be playing this well on defense, they're at home.

553
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: I think these teams are a lot more even rematched

554
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 2: than even with Dobbs at quarterback and without Jefferson, who

555
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 2: practice window should open this week. But I don't expect

556
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,239
Speaker 2: them back. But uh yeah, give me the Vikings here

557
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 2: time to fade this Saints team, and that's just been

558
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 2: beating up on bad teams that you know, play right

559
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 2: into what they do. I don't think Derek Carr has

560
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: been been very good. I think he's just you know,

561
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: had some defenses that you know they can they can

562
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 2: do some things against.

563
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 3: I don't think this is gonna be one of them.

564
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got I gotta give a ton of credit

565
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: to Brian Floor is what he's done with his defense. Uh,

566
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 4: it's just a lack of coverage ability that they have

567
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 4: on the outside. They're not playing any man. Uh it

568
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 4: is you know, a lot almost half cover three, a

569
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 4: lot of drop they'll drop eight sometimes and then they're

570
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 4: bringing the blitz a ton, So he's able to generate press. Sure,

571
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,239
Speaker 4: they're taking away explosive plays they have deep safeties all

572
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 4: the time. They're making you earn it and uh moving

573
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 4: up and down the field. And then he's coming with

574
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,479
Speaker 4: timely blitzing blitz is creating negative plays. Danil Hunter has

575
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 4: been awesome. So yeah, Floresa Is there's a ton of

576
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: credit what he's done with this unit just just on

577
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 4: scheme alone. It's a night and day difference, and it

578
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 4: shows you what one coordinator higher can do for an

579
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 4: entire unit. We're seeing it with the Ravens offense now, right, Like,

580
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 4: look how stale that offense got last year. Now that

581
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 4: offense is a rocket ship. And last year this Vikings

582
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 4: defense was a train wreck trainer and they got worse.

583
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 4: They got they they got rid of talent. And now

584
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 4: just scheme alone, so I'm sure you're gonna get a

585
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 4: million car checkdowns against this type of defense. So I

586
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 4: don't know they catches you have projected for Kamara, he's

587
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 4: gonna he's gonna have one of those thirteen catches for

588
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 4: thirty five yard games.

589
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 2: I mean they they used them a lot less last

590
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 2: week too. You know he was he was having some

591
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 2: trouble against the Bears. But yeah, it's either that or

592
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: cards just gonna throw a bunch of balls out of

593
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: bounds on the sidelines to a lave who's gonna like

594
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 2: look back at them, like, why are you even throwing

595
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: it to me?

596
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeaheah. I agree.

597
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 4: I agree on this one a lot. More on it

598
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 4: and later on in a segment in the podcast. But

599
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 4: for my third pick and the fifth overall the week

600
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: ten Sunday six pack.

601
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: Let's get fun here. I'm going with the Dallas Cowboys.

602
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 3: Check the updated line.

603
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,959
Speaker 4: Sixteen and a half minus sixteen and a half at

604
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 4: home against the New York Giants.

605
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 3: I think I've always said I'll never lay over two

606
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 3: touchdowns NFL? What do they say, never say never?

607
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 4: Because I have ever say never.

608
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 3: I bet the Cowboys. I bet them.

609
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 4: I think I'd still bet them at seventeen, but try

610
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 4: to get under seventeen.

611
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: I project this at nineteen nineteen point four.

612
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 4: Now, there's a lot of variants in that number, like

613
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 4: how bad can you make Ammy Devido? But bad is

614
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 4: the answer. It's very, very bad. He's the worst quarterback

615
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: I've ever tried to price. The one exception was in

616
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 4: Kendall Hilton, the wide receiver for the Broncos, had to

617
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 4: start during COVID. I think they were seventeen point underdogs.

618
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 4: By the way, this number like go back a couple

619
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 4: of weeks when I bet the Giants catching fourteen and

620
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 4: a half against a bottom five Bills defense after injuries

621
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 4: with Tyrod Taylor.

622
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 3: Now you have Tommy DeVito.

623
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 4: Massive, massive, monumental drop off against the top five defense,

624
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 4: and you're in the same similar price range. This lin's outrageous.

625
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 4: The Cowboys offense is on fire right now. Talked about

626
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,479
Speaker 4: this last week. They're doing everything that I've wanted them

627
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 4: to do. Dack's using his legs, They're throwing more on

628
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 4: first downs. You know Ferguson's implementation in the offense. They're

629
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 4: just a machine. Offensive line is now fully healthy. There's

630
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 4: just nothing the Giants can do to slow them down.

631
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 4: And on the other side of the ball, what are

632
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: the Giants? I don't What are the Giants gonna do

633
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 4: to score? They lost thirty eight nothing to this team,

634
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 4: By the way, what are they gonna do?

635
00:31:58,880 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 3: I don't know.

636
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 4: Tommy DeVito is gonna be under fire, He's gonna throw picks.

637
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 4: The Dallas Cowboys is just gonna play man on the outside.

638
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 4: By the way, the Dallas Cowboys defense also trading up

639
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 4: dron Bland, who's been great at corner. Marky's bellt linebacker.

640
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 4: They figured it out after the loss of Diggs. I

641
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 4: just don't know how the team total for the Giants

642
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 4: is ten and a half. I'd take the under ten

643
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 4: and a half. You never see a team total alone

644
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 4: in the NFL. Yeah, this is this Jihant seem lost

645
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 4: thirty two. You want, there's one data point. But last

646
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: week against the bottom five defense, and lets you do

647
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 4: anything right, there's no pressure. You can have your efficiency.

648
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 4: It was thirty to six to the Raiders and Aidan

649
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 4: O'Connell at quarterback. Thirty to six Cowboys. By the way,

650
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 4: I have seventeen plus point wins already this year against

651
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 4: the Jets, Patriots, and Rams. So when they get a

652
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 4: bad team and that offense is rolling, they blow them

653
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 4: out because then the defense can pin its years back

654
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 4: go after the quarterback.

655
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 3: I don't know.

656
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 4: If you get an angry Cowboys team, there's no look

657
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 4: at they had the Panthers on deck.

658
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 3: I just number one. I don't know how. I don't

659
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 3: know how the Giants score. Barker's got a break a run,

660
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 3: that's it. He's got to break an eighty r run.

661
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 4: And I don't know how the Giants slow down this

662
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 4: Cowboys offense, which is rolling like the Cowboys are gonna

663
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 4: have to fumble multiple kicks, fumble punts. Brandon Aubrey's gonna

664
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 4: have to remember he's a soccer player. I don't I

665
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 4: just don't know. I can't find a path where this

666
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 4: isn't a complete blot. This has thirty five to three

667
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 4: written all over it. Give me the Cowboys. I think

668
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 4: it's the first time in my life I've laid over

669
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 4: two touchdowns the NFL, and I have no no hesitation.

670
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 4: It doesn't cover I don't care fading comedy. De Vito

671
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 4: guy couldn't play that had a transfer to Syracuse, couldn't

672
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 4: start at Syracuse.

673
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 3: Give me the Cowboys.

674
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,239
Speaker 4: They better score in the red zone. By the way,

675
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 4: they got some regression coming. They said they we're gonna

676
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 4: be able to finish off every single drive this week.

677
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 2: With six Jack win favored by six or more in

678
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: his career twenty seven and eleven against the spread, seventy

679
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 2: one three and one against the spread this year. That

680
00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: is outrageous. You usually don't see trends for favorite you know,

681
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 2: seventy percent over that big of a sample size.

682
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 4: So this well usually the if you go back, it

683
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 4: makes sense in a sense that the Cowboys always have had,

684
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 4: you know, good pass rush, good decent secondary. So when

685
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 4: they get up against a bad team, right then that's

686
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 4: when their defense. You know, if they're in a close

687
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 4: gamer behind, the teams have ever run the ball against them,

688
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 4: But if they get up and they build a big lead,

689
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 4: then it usually snowballs because that's when their defense is

690
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 4: even better. And now you're you have that scenario against

691
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 4: Tommy Devido. Come on, they have negative pass yards against

692
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 4: the Jets defense, negative pass yards.

693
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: Speaking of which, that'll take me to my third pick

694
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: in the final one of the week ten Sunday six pack,

695
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: and I am going with the last Vegas Raiders plus

696
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:51,959
Speaker 2: one at home against the New York Jets and gotta

697
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: fade Zach Wilson lay in points on the road here.

698
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 2: And you know this Jet team, they like, there's this,

699
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 2: this is it's gonna I think it's gonna keep the

700
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: bottom is gonna keep falling out here. You know, I

701
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 2: know their defense is great, but let's look, you know,

702
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 2: two weeks ago they play the Giants, and you mentioned it.

703
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 2: They hold the Giants to negative nine passing yards, negative

704
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 2: nine passing yards, they need a comeback two minute drive

705
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 2: with the clock running down just to tie it and

706
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 2: then to win an overtime when.

707
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 4: You hold the Giants nine pasket or kick a field

708
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 4: goal like the Giants Giants nine to nine point nine

709
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 4: percent win probability.

710
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: And and so let's now compare that the Jets had

711
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 2: had a zero point one percent win probability against the

712
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: Giants at one point in a game with negative nine

713
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: passing yards.

714
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 3: The Raiders beat this team thirty to six. So not good.

715
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 3: Same thing.

716
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: And look at O'Connell also started against the Chargers. He

717
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 2: was on the goal line and had a chance to

718
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 2: tie the game, and you know they call pass play

719
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 2: and it ends up getting picked up. But even with

720
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 2: it took like what nine to ten sacks, they are

721
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 2: right in that game with a chance to tie. Wait,

722
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 2: the Jets can't even sniff the end zone against the Chargers,

723
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 2: you know, twenty seven to six. So you already have

724
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 2: a couple of common opponents that you know to kind

725
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 2: of judge us off of, even though you know O'Connell's

726
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 2: only started a couple of games. Both of those starts

727
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 2: have come against teams the Jets have multi played, and

728
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 2: the Raiders have looked better against those teams. The Jets

729
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: offensive line is terrible right now. It's just all banged up.

730
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 2: Matt Crosby's gonna get off, and you know, the Jets

731
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 2: strength obviously is their defense, their past defense, but at

732
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 2: least you have, you know, Devonte Adams, Jacobe Myers, so

733
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: you know, it's like you don't have like you have

734
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: guys that can can at least give you a chance,

735
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: especially Adams against these cornerbacks. So, you know, just two

736
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 2: bad teams, but the Raiders. I think it's also going

737
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 2: to be tough for the Jets to gain plan because

738
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 2: you're just you're in what game two of this Antonio

739
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: Pierce regime. They changed the offensive coordinator, so it's you know,

740
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: it's gonna be really tough for the Jets. And also

741
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 2: another reason I think the Jets are a little bit

742
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 2: overvalued and why they're favored on the road with Zach Wilson,

743
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 2: they've only played two road games. This is just gonna

744
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 2: be their third road game because they had a road

745
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 2: game at that was the Giants. But that's their stadium too,

746
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 2: so that's not really a road game. So the only

747
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 2: road games the Jets have had week Week two at

748
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 2: Dallas and Week five at the Broncos. So you look

749
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 2: at all the Jets stats and you know, all you know,

750
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: as you're kind of handicapping this, they played eight games

751
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 2: and they've only had two road games, so you know,

752
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 2: we know teams play worse on the road. They're going

753
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: across the country, Raiders chilling. Second straight home game. They

754
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,919
Speaker 2: had the Giants come in last week. They're riding high.

755
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 2: So I think the Raiders can keep it going here

756
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: and do it enough to beat this Jet team in

757
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 2: But you know, this is when you want to fade

758
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson when he is a favorite or an underdog

759
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 2: of less than six points. So if he's plus five

760
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,399
Speaker 2: and a half or less or he's a favorite, he's

761
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 2: just one six and one against the spread in his

762
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:24,399
Speaker 2: last eight. The times the Jets are covering when they're

763
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 2: you know, one possession or more dogs and the other

764
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 2: defense kind of keeps the minute or they get lucky,

765
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: like you.

766
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 3: Know with the Eagles. But in these spots, this is

767
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 3: a fade.

768
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 2: All the way we saw this Jet team, you know,

769
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 2: just continue to struggle to score points at the end

770
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 2: of last year with Zach Wilson, and it's starting to

771
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 2: happen again. It seems like the deeper you get into

772
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 2: the season, you know, more tape you get. You know,

773
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 2: just this offense just doesn't have answers, and it sounds

774
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 2: like Sala doesn't even really want to stay. It sounds

775
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 2: like this is more of an ownership ownership decision at

776
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: this point. I don't even know, like he's like, they're

777
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 2: not calling up Simeon even though he's there, So you

778
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 2: know this, I don't see. I don't see this offense

779
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 2: doing much. And that's going to give the Raiders a

780
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 2: chance here at home, because you know, and a Zack

781
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 2: Wilson led Jet offense can be just as bad as

782
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 2: O'Connell offense facing the Jets.

783
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 3: So give me the Raiders. Yeah, I mean fading. Zach

784
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 3: Wilson is a favorite. Yeah again, I did.

785
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 4: One thing I would worry about is Brisce Hall going

786
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 4: off Like that's the only time the Jets offense looks competent.

787
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 4: But the way to move the ball against this Raiders defense,

788
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 4: I talked about it. They just they sit back and

789
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,319
Speaker 4: they don't take. All they want to do is take

790
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 4: away explosive place and it works for the most part.

791
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 4: In today's NFL keeps shooting the game. But if you

792
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 4: can like efficiently pass the ball down the field, you

793
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 4: can move the ball against this secondary ah, but that's

794
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 4: not what the Jets can do. Jack Wilson isn't accurate enough.

795
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 4: Max croswill end up stripping him a couple of times.

796
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 4: Marcus Peters will probably have a pick six when Zack

797
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 4: Wilson doesn't you know, when he just telegrass telegress the throat.

798
00:39:59,360 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: Of the sideline.

799
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 4: That's what happens, right, You have to make it. You

800
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 4: make a bad quarterback drive all the way down the

801
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 4: field and then they make a mistake. So yeah, and

802
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,720
Speaker 4: for what it's worth, I know, coming into the season,

803
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 4: off to check this, is this a prime time aain't

804
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: God damn Jack Wilson in prime time twice in six days,

805
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 4: So one of us will have this game written up.

806
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 4: I'll probably give this to you. I'll take Bill's Broncos.

807
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 4: But I know coming into this year.

808
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 3: You can check this.

809
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 4: But coming into this season, see if my memory is good,

810
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 4: teams going from the West coast excuse me, East Coast

811
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 4: teams going to the West coast after a primetime game

812
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 4: on a short week, where doesn't happen often. So Jets

813
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 4: played Monday night going now short week on across the

814
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 4: country eight and I think eight and sixteen against the

815
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 4: spread over the past twenty years. So it's something with

816
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 4: the body clock and obviously short week doesn't help. But yeah,

817
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 4: I think the Raiders are rejuvenated. How can you not

818
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 4: be after getting rid of maybe the worst coach in

819
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 4: the NFL. So don't disagree. What do we got for quarterbacks?

820
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 4: Who we have?

821
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: Let's see, Okay, so you got CJ. Stroud good, Jordan

822
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: Love and Dak Prescott solid. So you've got some decent Yeah,

823
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 2: decent quarterbacks. I got Matt Jones, Dush Jobs and Aidan

824
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 2: O'Connor baby second week in a row.

825
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 3: I'm how ugly you Yeah, we switched throlls the in

826
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 3: the past two weeks. Yeah, man, I mean it's been

827
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 3: one of those years.

828
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 4: You know.

829
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 2: It's like I said it, you know, it's just it's

830
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: just kind of I mean, it's a lot of it

831
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 2: is just fading, bad quarterbacks getting points, you know, like

832
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 2: it's or laying points. So, uh, you know, fading Zach Wilson,

833
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: fading Carr and fading Minshew, so you know, equally bad

834
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 2: on the other side of it. But yeah, you got stuck.

835
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: Has Houston plus seven, Pack plus three, Cowboys minus sixteen

836
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 2: and a half. I have Pats plus one and a half,

837
00:41:56,239 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 2: Vikes plus two and a half, and the Raiders us one.

838
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 2: That's gonna wrap it up for our Week ten Sunday

839
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 2: six pap. All right, now it's time four our Week

840
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 2: ten coaches pep talk.

841
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,320
Speaker 3: Your only responsibility is to put meat on the table.

842
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 2: You gotta stay relaxed.

843
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you don't, you will fall out of balance,

844
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 4: split your differential and tip the fuck over or worse yet.

845
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 3: I've seen this happen in plugged implosions are ugly.

846
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 2: This week's Coaches pep Talk comes to us from the

847
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 2: twenty thirteen film The Wolf of Wall Street. Love that

848
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 2: movie and we're dedicating it too. Let's dedicate to the

849
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 2: Las Vegas Raiders. Keep it going, get us that cover

850
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 2: against Zat Wilson as a road favorite. Let's get into

851
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 2: our favorite total of week ten. All right, we're combined

852
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 2: eleven and seven on the year on total, so pretty good.

853
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: You went first on side.

854
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 3: So I'll start us off here.

855
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 2: I'm going right back to the well Pittsburgh Green Bay

856
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 2: first half under nineteen and a half. Talked about this

857
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: last week. Green Bay one of the slowest paced teams

858
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 2: in the league in the first half and also the

859
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 2: lowest scoring team in the league in the first half,

860
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 2: green Bay averaging just four and a half points per

861
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 2: game in the first half, and Pittsburgh is also a

862
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 2: bottom five scoring team in the first half, just six

863
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: point nine points per game.

864
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 3: He picked the last drive of the game.

865
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he was out there throwing one hoppers

866
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 2: to Alan Robinson and I don't know how many balls

867
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: he was high and on a Thursday night. Maybe some

868
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 2: of it had to do with the rib, but I

869
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,479
Speaker 2: mean we've seen this from Pickett kind of throughout his career.

870
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 2: He turns up in a fort though. I give him that,

871
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think you want the first half under

872
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 2: in this one also. And we didn't even really get

873
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 2: into this when we talked about the Packers for your side,

874
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 2: but green Bay, we know another team that we kind

875
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 2: of know what they're gonna do on defense. They're a

876
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 2: top six zone team and they love to sit back

877
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 2: and zone. Sometimes it's maddening because they'll do it on

878
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 2: rundowns and instead of you know, coming up close. But

879
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh fourth in adjusted yards for attempt against man coverage

880
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 2: twenty fourth against zone a four yard over a four

881
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,240
Speaker 2: yard difference in adjusted yards per attempt.

882
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 4: That's because the sideline throws to uh, Pickets can work

883
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 4: against man.

884
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 2: Right right. So I mean Deontay, like you said, Deontay

885
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,919
Speaker 2: has helped and he looks really good out there. Glad

886
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: he finally got himself in the end zone. But yeah,

887
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 2: we kind of know what this kind of know what

888
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 2: this Green Bay defense is gonna do. And you know,

889
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 2: everything we've seen from Pickets thus far, uh, you know,

890
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,439
Speaker 2: don't expect too much through the air. I do think

891
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 2: both of these teams p we want to run in this.

892
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 3: Game, right. You know.

893
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh started to get to run established with Naji Harris

894
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:10,240
Speaker 2: and Jalen Warren last game, and we know the Packers,

895
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: you know, Aaron Jones finally helped that again his first

896
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 2: twenty carry game of the year. So I think both

897
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 2: of these teams will try to run. So even if

898
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 2: you do have you know, get some scoring drives should

899
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 2: bleed some clock, especially when green Bay has it. They're

900
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 2: again won the slowest paced teams in the first half.

901
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 2: So green Bay first half unders this year six one

902
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 2: and one. Pittsburgh first half unders are five and three.

903
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 2: So that's eleven four and one combined to the first

904
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 2: half under for these two teams. Give me the first

905
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 2: half under pack Steelers nineteen and a half.

906
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 4: Well, you went right back to the well, so am

907
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 4: I I'm going Browns with another Browns under under thirty

908
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 4: eight chop rounding. You know, I just bet a thirty

909
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 4: eight and a half minus one twelve game could end

910
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 4: twenty one to seventeen or something. Offenses broken. Not only

911
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 4: is Deshaun Watson either washed or just not healthy. You

912
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 4: can just look at his throws downfield. I mean, Amari

913
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 4: Cooper is not fixing anything.

914
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 3: Jerome Ford.

915
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 4: If you look from an efficiency stable, it's been the

916
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,439
Speaker 4: worst running back in the NFL. A couple of long runs,

917
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 4: that's about it. Now your tackle situation is compromised. You're

918
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 4: down both your starting tackles and Dewan Jones didn't practice today.

919
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 4: I mean you could be down to I believe Jaron

920
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 4: Christian or Alex Leatherwood starting at tackle opposite James Hudson.

921
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 4: So what was once a strength is now an overwhelming

922
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 4: weakness on the outside for the Browns. Ravens are going

923
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 4: to take advantage from pressures, simulated pressures, and the Ravens

924
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 4: Mike McDonald is, I think maybe right now, the best

925
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 4: defensive coordinator in the NFL. They are so multiple and

926
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 4: what they do depending on who they play each week,

927
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 4: and they could do so many different things. Man zone,

928
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 4: you saw what they did to GoF knowing he was

929
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 4: you know, and then then you saw what they did

930
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 4: the Gino Smith at the perfect game plan. Well, the

931
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 4: Browns offense this year is impoverished against zone. They cannot

932
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 4: do anything for what it's where the other horrible zone

933
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 4: offenses are the Jets, Titans, and Steelers, who we just

934
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 4: talked about, like just horrible, horrible zone offenses. So I

935
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 4: expect you'll see some different pressures, some stimulated pressures and

936
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 4: confused Watson more zone heavy from.

937
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 3: The Ravens this week.

938
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 4: And on the other side of the ball, the Browns

939
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 4: are the most man heavy defense in the NFL, and

940
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 4: this year with this new offense demands by the cover

941
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 4: one man, I think like about half the time they

942
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 4: played no cover four, no Cover six at all. This

943
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 4: is a man heavy defense. We'll see at Emerson can play.

944
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 4: He's important, so he can play straight man across the board,

945
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 4: and his backup went on ir today. But regardless, they're

946
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 4: gonna play a lot of man here. And the Ravens

947
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 4: offense has destroyed zone defense. It's one of the reasons

948
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 4: I love them against the Lions and the Seahawks, but

949
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 4: against man Dave at bottom ten epa per play, Lamar

950
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 4: is an equal touchdown and interception percentage against man defense.

951
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 4: Now he'll be able to use his legs and probably

952
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 4: create a few explosives here. You saw that in the

953
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 4: first matchup with Cleveland, so you know, and because the

954
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 4: Browns are such an aggressive defense, he might hit a

955
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 4: couple explosives against them. But this is the best defense

956
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 4: in the league. They already saw Lamar, which helps when

957
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 4: you see him for a second time over a short

958
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 4: period of time. Browns are gonna have to rely on

959
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 4: their defense in this game. I just don't know how

960
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 4: much their offense is going to be able to do.

961
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 4: But their defense actually matches up well on paper against Baltimore.

962
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 4: Throwing the injuries for Cleveland, and this should be a

963
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 4: low scoring game. If the Ravens also build a big lead,

964
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 4: they'll just go super conservative, knowing they can rely on

965
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 4: their defense, they play slow. This is setting up as

966
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 4: a classic second meeting Division under in November, which have

967
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 4: had a lot of success outdoors historically. So give me

968
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 4: the Browns Ravens under in the Charms City. By the way,

969
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:23,880
Speaker 4: I have the Ravens power rated number one now in

970
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 4: the NFL. What are there's Super Bowl odds? I think

971
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 4: you can get like ten to one. I think over

972
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 4: the next couple of weeks home games against the Browns

973
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 4: and Bengals win those games, I think that they should

974
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 4: be like five six to one with like the Chiefs.

975
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 4: I mean, they're in the same price range as the Lions.

976
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:43,320
Speaker 4: Come on, I mean, I know the Lions are in

977
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 4: the NFC have a much easier path, But I'm gonna dabble.

978
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 4: I'm always excited about my team of the Super Bowl

979
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 4: when I see a little bit of value. This Ravens

980
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 4: seems really good in all phases. So yeah, give me

981
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,319
Speaker 4: Baltimore and I'm gonna throw a little on their Super

982
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:57,240
Speaker 4: Bowl odds.

983
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, don't mush it, don't you know Mark

984
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 2: Jackson needs to make it. They have the way I

985
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,959
Speaker 2: have a thirteen week thirteen bye. Wait, let's get Lamar

986
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,760
Speaker 2: to the by and coming out of the buy healthy

987
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 2: was the last two years he's missed like the last

988
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 2: what yeah, twelve ons around that time.

989
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 3: This is the game.

990
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 4: Hopefully he doesn't have time because remember a preseason on

991
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 4: our preseason pods, my fourteen to one MVP. Think he's

992
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:25,240
Speaker 4: down to like three to one at some chops. Yeah, okay, healthy,

993
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 4: fingers crossed. I mean just Mahomes or hurts, I think,

994
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,240
Speaker 4: but there's Mahomes fatigue, hurts to deal with an injuries

995
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 4: in the NFC.

996
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 3: Right now, I think Lamar is the favorite.

997
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 2: I mean I think he might be the favorite on

998
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 2: the books, but I still feel like he needs he

999
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 2: needs like a couple of like big monster games because

1000
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 2: Gus Edwards is stealing all his touchdowns.

1001
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 3: That's that's the issue.

1002
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, these blowouts. Not getting a lot of touchdowns definitely

1003
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 4: is an ideal. I would have thought about the Browns

1004
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:55,800
Speaker 4: here at this price range if they were fully healthy

1005
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 4: and I trusted Watson to be you know, just trusted

1006
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:01,280
Speaker 4: him in general, and knew that he was fully healthy.

1007
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,280
Speaker 4: I show a little bit of value on the Browns,

1008
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 4: but it's just hard for me to find Pat's success

1009
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 4: for this offense.

1010
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 3: So give me the under, all right.

1011
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 2: So we got and yeah, I still got that Hurts

1012
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:16,839
Speaker 2: ticket for MVP. He's looking pretty decent too. I mean

1013
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:20,399
Speaker 2: they haven't really hit gear yet and he's on pace

1014
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 2: for I think it's forty two forty three touchdowns in total,

1015
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 2: So that's that's.

1016
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 3: I think it's him Hurts or Mahomes.

1017
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Mahomes really had kind of a down. Yeah,

1018
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 2: I mean he's kind of you know, it hasn't been

1019
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 2: like a a He could turn it on the second half.

1020
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,879
Speaker 2: It doesn't take much. But I think that it's wide

1021
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 2: open for a non Mahomes winner. So Baltimore Cleveland under

1022
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: thirty eight, Pittsburgh Green Bay first half under nineteen and

1023
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:52,399
Speaker 2: a half time for our favorite teasers of week ten.

1024
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1025
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 3: Don't tease me, all right.

1026
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 2: So for those unfamiliar with teasers, it's when you get

1027
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 2: an extra allotment of points to parlay with two or

1028
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,839
Speaker 2: more spread beats. Usually the standard is a two team

1029
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 2: six point teaser, So that would mean, an eight and

1030
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 2: a half point favorite becomes a two and a half

1031
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 2: point favorite, a two and a half point underdog becomes

1032
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: an eight and a half point underdog.

1033
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 3: For example.

1034
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,320
Speaker 2: So Stuck has a lot of great content out talking

1035
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 2: about you know what numbers he's looking to tease through

1036
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 2: and his whole philosophy on that, Stuck is seven and

1037
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 2: two this year?

1038
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 3: Your seven much last week?

1039
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 4: When along Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know right, it's really

1040
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 4: it was price Young. I mean, you hold the undertwit

1041
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 4: you sey and a half point like teaser is like

1042
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 4: a once in a lifetime event.

1043
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 3: That's what I get for back in Carolina.

1044
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: It's like the only time I even like gate like

1045
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 2: gave out Carolina anything this year.

1046
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 3: So that's my fault. But where are you going?

1047
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's go with a classic teaser teasing two teams

1048
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 4: catching under a field go up over a touchdown in

1049
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 4: games it should be lower scoring totals under forty four

1050
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 4: with the Vikings already talked about them earlier in the episode,

1051
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,239
Speaker 4: and the Patriots, I'm teasing two of your ficks. So

1052
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 4: Patriots to seven and a half, Vikings to eight and

1053
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 4: a half. And also this, this is my favorite teaser

1054
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 4: on the board, and it ensures that I'll have a why.

1055
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 4: I would have been rooting for you in the podcast anyway,

1056
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 4: but now I'll have a financial interest in the Frankfurt

1057
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 4: game early Sunday morning.

1058
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know. Right.

1059
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: For my teaser, I'm gonna go with the Minnesota Vikings

1060
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:48,879
Speaker 2: and the Arizona Cardinals. So let's go Josh Dabbs new team,

1061
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 2: Josh Dabbs old team. So Vikings up to eight and

1062
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:56,959
Speaker 2: a half, Cardinals from one and a half to seven

1063
00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:00,919
Speaker 2: and a half. And you know Kyler Murray coming back.

1064
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:05,879
Speaker 2: He saw the Falcons struggle against scrambling, so and we're

1065
00:54:05,880 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 2: gonna have another unprepared quarterback that can scramble. Doesn't doesn't

1066
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 2: bode well for this Falcon team that I know you

1067
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: and I had high hopes for.

1068
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,359
Speaker 3: And then who is this new Arthur Smith? Like who

1069
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 3: is this?

1070
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 2: Where is the Arthur Smith that actually made sense?

1071
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 3: Like this, I don't know who this guy is. He's

1072
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,280
Speaker 3: like and he makes plenty of sense. He's a billionaire.

1073
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,760
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, I know that, but he's got plenty

1074
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 3: of sense. But not but I mean it was.

1075
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,319
Speaker 2: Listen, every coach is gonna do some things that at

1076
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 2: some point or another we're not gonna agree with. But

1077
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 2: I just feel like Arthur Smith at one point was

1078
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 2: pretty sharp offensive. I just don't know what happened. So yeah, unprepared,

1079
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 2: scrambling quarterback. Give me the Cardinals and uh go with

1080
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 2: the Vikings, who just they're always hanging around like, I

1081
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 2: don't think they I don't think they've lost by eight. Now,

1082
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:02,360
Speaker 2: let me let me make sure. I'm pretty sure the

1083
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 2: Vikings have played all one score games.

1084
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 3: That's all they do. That's all they do.

1085
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 2: The Vikings have a two score win, no two score.

1086
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 2: Every loss has been by one score. Eight of their

1087
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 2: nine games have been one score game.

1088
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, the Vikings. And you know what's crazy about

1089
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 3: the Vikings this year?

1090
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 2: They already have a better point differential than they had

1091
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:23,320
Speaker 2: last year when they won thirteen games and had a

1092
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 2: negative foot and with a much harder schedule too.

1093
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,320
Speaker 3: Like he already played the Chiefs, the Eagles, the Chargers.

1094
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, and a back Yeah, like Ben Jefferson hurt,

1095
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 6: and Jefferson hurts like yeah, like you you won, you

1096
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 6: beat the Niners without Jefferson, you're two and zero without.

1097
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 5: Uh.

1098
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 2: Technically Cousins went down in the Green Bay game. So yeah,

1099
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:46,320
Speaker 2: he went down to end. But you know, yeah, you

1100
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 2: haven't you whether this Cousin losing Cousins so far, you've

1101
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 2: won three games of that, all three games without Jefferson, Like, yeah,

1102
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 2: I'm they're the coaching they're doing. Like last year we

1103
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 2: were like, oh, this Vikings team is a fraud. This year, Uh,

1104
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,360
Speaker 2: they're kind of impressive, even O'Connell, you know, coaching up

1105
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 2: Dobbs and you know, uh, being able to kind of

1106
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 2: explain to him enough of what was going on with

1107
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 2: those plays so that he could because you know, Doc

1108
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:13,320
Speaker 2: made a few throws too, and most it was a

1109
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 2: lot mostly scrambling, but he did hit a few throws

1110
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 2: and made some good reads.

1111
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me.

1112
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 4: They survived their inevitable turnover regression from last year. They

1113
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 4: had the onslaught of turnovers and they're still above five hundred.

1114
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:30,760
Speaker 2: They survived all them, all the Alexander Madison like silliness

1115
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 2: over the first like six six weeks where he just

1116
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 2: couldn't hold on to the football.

1117
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:36,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really a shame that. It's really a shane

1118
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 3: that Cousins got hurt.

1119
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean, hey, I mean, like I means

1120
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 4: you're not.

1121
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:46,799
Speaker 3: But I don't know what to make of.

1122
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 2: Josh Dobbs at this point because that game he played

1123
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 2: against Atlanta, some like the passing numbers don't look great.

1124
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 2: I think it was like five point eight yards in

1125
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 2: attempt or whatever. But just some of the throws and

1126
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 2: some of the runs he made and at the times

1127
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 2: he made it, they I've just like never seen anything

1128
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 2: like it, like honestly, so I don't know. It's I'm

1129
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:06,319
Speaker 2: intrigued by just see you know, like this Dob's guy

1130
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 2: is very interesting. He should have beat the Jaguars last

1131
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 2: year to get the Titans in the playoffs and then

1132
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 2: you know, I guess turnovers are like also just the Falcons.

1133
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 4: Were I don't think they did actually insall a game

1134
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 4: plan for him. You can't let him, you can't let

1135
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:22,120
Speaker 4: him scramble.

1136
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 3: Right, and that he was doing that all game. You

1137
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 3: just can't let him do that. And every other team's

1138
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 3: started to not let him do that with how they

1139
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 3: were blitzing him. But maybe the Vikings.

1140
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 4: Do you think the Vikings just aren't going to give

1141
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 4: him a game plan, Just send him home and tell

1142
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 4: them the show up on Sunday for the game like

1143
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 4: last week, just Yeah, no, but what an amazing feat

1144
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 4: one of like the I mean some of the stories.

1145
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 4: You're like O'Connor was like showing him the plays during

1146
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 4: like create during the game, like insane, what are them?

1147
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 2: So they're saying, like how you know, like Josh Dobbs

1148
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 2: drops back and like for that for that game when

1149
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 2: he touchdown, he's like, oh, look number four, the number

1150
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 2: one target, Like just another catch for him, is like

1151
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 2: Brandon Powells never had to catch this important in its

1152
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 2: fucking life, you.

1153
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 3: Know what I mean, Like.

1154
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 2: He's a career special teamer, like this is I mean,

1155
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 2: I've just never seen anything like that.

1156
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 3: But it's not the first time.

1157
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 2: Like Josh Gods has had a few like even at

1158
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 2: you know, game against the Cat like he was he's

1159
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 2: been playing well at times this year.

1160
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: It's like he's he's he's got something.

1161
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 2: It's that the turnovers are really you know, I think

1162
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:32,720
Speaker 2: what's ultimately you know, he has to to correct, but

1163
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 2: you know I could see him having a little like

1164
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 2: a little run, make a little run probably get maybe

1165
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 2: get to the playoffs and get blown out in the

1166
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:40,560
Speaker 2: wild card or something like that.

1167
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, but our producer for talking about Josh stops for

1168
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 3: eight Yeah, my god, are you still talking?

1169
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:51,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we'll go to our money on underdog parlay

1170
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 2: before we do that. A reminder that Action Network podcast

1171
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:57,280
Speaker 2: is presented by Bett MGM used bonus code Action a

1172
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 2: c T iown when signing up to get up to

1173
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 2: fifteen one hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if

1174
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 2: your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

1175
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

1176
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

1177
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 2: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, money

1178
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:26,440
Speaker 2: line dog, where are you going.

1179
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends? It's time for the

1180
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1181
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:38,080
Speaker 3: Yeah. Last week, but I went with the I've had

1182
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:39,680
Speaker 3: a lot of successful with the quarterback on certainty.

1183
00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 4: I went with the Giants last week with the Raiders

1184
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 4: quarterback on certainty, and oh boy did I get hit

1185
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:47,560
Speaker 4: with the old quarterback on certainty and Tommy DeVito. But

1186
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,080
Speaker 4: I'm actually I'm gonna switch it up on you real quick.

1187
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 4: I was gonna go Cardinals with the quarterback on certainty,

1188
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 4: but I'm gonna go Chargers. I don't love this matchup

1189
00:59:56,840 --> 01:00:00,360
Speaker 4: for multiple reasons, but I show value in the number

1190
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 4: and it's a Chargers game at the end of the day,

1191
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 4: so I think that there's value in this price. With

1192
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 4: the Herbert who his finger I think is impacting. You know,

1193
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 4: I know it's his non throwing finger, but just how

1194
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 4: he groups the ball, and I know the offense all

1195
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 4: it just isn't the same.

1196
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 3: Without Mike Williams.

1197
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 4: If you look at the splits and the Lions play

1198
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 4: some coverages that might give Herbert some trouble and have historically. Also,

1199
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 4: I'm worried about Hutchinson on Trey Pipkins, which he could

1200
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 4: make a couple of big plays. But six weeks is

1201
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 4: the timeline for when Herbert that he should have his

1202
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 4: splint off his finger. And I'm also on the other

1203
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 4: side of the ball, like the Chargers, their defense is

1204
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:39,960
Speaker 4: going to be good when they can get pressure, especially

1205
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 4: with you know, you add that the rookie and with

1206
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 4: Bosa and Mac and you saw that last week.

1207
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 3: It's the Jets offensive line, but the.

1208
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 4: Line's offensive line should be able to neutralize that a

1209
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 4: bit and Goff destroys destroy zone and so there's a

1210
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 4: couple of things I don't like about the matchup. Otherwise

1211
01:00:57,200 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 4: I would play the Chargers catching three. So I'm gonna

1212
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 4: go and there's gonna be no wins and there's no

1213
01:01:02,720 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 4: really home field advantage. So but I think for moneyline

1214
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 4: dog shot with Herbert and this Chargers offense, which I

1215
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 4: think can take a lot from that dominant win over

1216
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 4: the Jets.

1217
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 3: They've been close to in a lot of games. So yeah,

1218
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:18,560
Speaker 3: let's let's.

1219
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 2: Roll with the with the Chargers now, like I was

1220
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:24,720
Speaker 2: thinking about them too. Honestly, I'm actually gonnawitch up to

1221
01:01:24,760 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 2: I was gonna go with the Titans, but I don't

1222
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 2: like this matchup against the Bucks, so I'm gonna go

1223
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,480
Speaker 2: with the gats of the Jaguars. They are plus one

1224
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 2: thirty five at home against the Niners, and I feel like,

1225
01:01:35,080 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 2: you know, everyone's kind of just thinking, you know, Niners

1226
01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 2: where they lost three straight, definitely gonna get right. Jaguars

1227
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 2: letdown spot. They've won what five in a row, so

1228
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:48,720
Speaker 2: everyone just kind of chalking this one up to, you know,

1229
01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 2: a market correction. At this point, I feel like, But

1230
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 2: this Jaguar team, I think this is kind of when

1231
01:01:54,760 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 2: you want to invest in them when you know they're underdogs,

1232
01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 2: they're playing at home, probably you know, probably have some

1233
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:04,480
Speaker 2: some some heat here, and both.

1234
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 3: Teams coming off the most wins as an underdog over

1235
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 3: the past two seasons.

1236
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:10,919
Speaker 2: Wins there you go, and and you know, both teams

1237
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 2: coming off of bye, so you know, it's not as

1238
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 2: big of an advantage as if you know, just one.

1239
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:20,600
Speaker 2: We're obviously San Francisco should be a little healthier. But uh,

1240
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 2: this Jaguar team, I mean, it's the tough to run

1241
01:02:23,160 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 2: in them, and they're they're actually getting pretty decent play

1242
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 2: now from their secondary, which I always felt was going

1243
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 2: to be their downfall. But you know, Campbell's playing you know,

1244
01:02:34,560 --> 01:02:38,600
Speaker 2: he's playing well. Williams has played well, which is a

1245
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 2: little bit somewhat surprising. I guess Herndon's been been all right, Cisco,

1246
01:02:43,720 --> 01:02:46,080
Speaker 2: He's been pretty good. So like, the Jacks defense is

1247
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 2: not as bad as I thought it was going to be.

1248
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 2: Two Uh, to open the year, they got they got

1249
01:02:52,320 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 2: the Cleveland the guard, so the offensive line should be

1250
01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 2: a little bit better.

1251
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 3: On the interior, it's tough to run on them.

1252
01:03:00,680 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 2: So maybe those McCaffrey runs, you know, maybe doesn't bust

1253
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:06,360
Speaker 2: like an explosive. So that's Jaguar's canna hang around here.

1254
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,439
Speaker 2: So give me the Jags plus one thirty five.

1255
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:10,440
Speaker 4: I was ready to bet the forty nine ers here

1256
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 4: bounce back spot getting healthier coming off the buy, but

1257
01:03:15,000 --> 01:03:16,960
Speaker 4: I couldn't, and I dug into the matchup a bit.

1258
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence, he he has throughout his career, he has

1259
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,520
Speaker 4: really struggled against Cover two. Forty nine Ers don't really

1260
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:23,240
Speaker 4: play Cover two.

1261
01:03:24,400 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 3: Rock Party.

1262
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 4: If you go out of one hundred and forty one

1263
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 4: season data points versus man coverage since twenty twenty one,

1264
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 4: so that means like every quarterback that's qualified has a

1265
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:36,959
Speaker 4: data point, So it would be like Patrick Mahomes twenty

1266
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 4: twenty one, EPA against Man, Patrick Mahomes twenty twenty two,

1267
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:44,120
Speaker 4: So one hundred and forty one data points against man coverage.

1268
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:48,240
Speaker 4: Brock Party is number four and number seven last year.

1269
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,720
Speaker 4: In this year and EPA per play against man coverage.

1270
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 3: Jacks play me yeah.

1271
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:55,720
Speaker 4: Jags play eighty percent zone purty versus Cover three, four

1272
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:58,400
Speaker 4: and six, which is what you'll see predominantly from the

1273
01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 4: Jags zero percent touchdown percentage you know, five percent interception rate,

1274
01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:09,480
Speaker 4: a seven percent sack percentage. He's twenty fifth out of

1275
01:04:09,560 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 4: thirty eight quarterbacks in quarterback rating against cover three four

1276
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 4: and six against man. Eight percent touchdown rate, zero percent

1277
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 4: interception rate, three percent sack rate.

1278
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 3: So this is not a good matchup. Party.

1279
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:25,680
Speaker 4: It's just like you saw it against the Vikings. Right,

1280
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 4: he still has trouble processing where some guys are in

1281
01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 4: zones when it's against man with all these different weapons,

1282
01:04:32,560 --> 01:04:34,840
Speaker 4: and he knows where everyone is and he can use

1283
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:38,440
Speaker 4: his legs to extend plays. This Niners offense is unstoppable

1284
01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:42,000
Speaker 4: against man. So both sides the ball, this is a

1285
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 4: decent matchup for the Jags.

1286
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 2: So like it. Yeah, yeah, I'm thinking about the Jags.

1287
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 2: I was hoping maybe we'd get a three and a half,

1288
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:50,800
Speaker 2: but doubt doubtful.

1289
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:52,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think the market will let that happen.

1290
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah no, but either way, we both got plus

1291
01:04:55,800 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 2: one thirty five Dogs, Chargers and Jags. You parlay those,

1292
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 2: that's plus four fifty two. If you are looking for

1293
01:05:05,080 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 2: a way to calculate parla odds, we shoure to check

1294
01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:09,560
Speaker 2: out the Action Network betting onds calculator, which you can

1295
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 2: find on Action network dot Com or in the Action app.

1296
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 2: All Right, time four best of the rest games we

1297
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 2: haven't covered in any other segment, but are still, as

1298
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:25,920
Speaker 2: they say, meaningful to some that's going to be a touchdown,

1299
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:28,960
Speaker 2: but that may be meaningful to some of you. So

1300
01:05:29,120 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 2: you know what I mean Seattle Washington or Washington at Seattle,

1301
01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 2: I mean, not confused the city and the state. On

1302
01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 2: a district in the state, I should say Commanders six

1303
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:43,400
Speaker 2: and a half point underdogs. The total is forty five

1304
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 2: and a half. I like, what's I like what I

1305
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 2: see out of Sam Howe. I feel like it's far

1306
01:05:50,040 --> 01:05:52,800
Speaker 2: from an arm talent perspective, and you know, being able

1307
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 2: to make throws down the field, even some with anticipation.

1308
01:05:55,880 --> 01:05:57,600
Speaker 2: I think, I like what I see. He just got

1309
01:05:57,680 --> 01:06:00,240
Speaker 2: to clean up we can make all Yeah, it's those

1310
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:02,360
Speaker 2: brain farts like that that pick against New England. I

1311
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:03,520
Speaker 2: mean that could have cost us the cover.

1312
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:06,520
Speaker 3: I was like, horrendous throw. I was one of the

1313
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:07,440
Speaker 3: worst tours to ever see.

1314
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 4: But yeah, he also he just has to get he

1315
01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:12,760
Speaker 4: has to get his time, like his uh mental timing down,

1316
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 4: like mental clock, like he's been good against the blitz

1317
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 4: when you know you have to get rid of it.

1318
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 4: But sometimes when he's not blitzed, he'll just hold the

1319
01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 4: ball way too long, and then sometimes we'll make as

1320
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:25,240
Speaker 4: you said, brain farts. But he can make all the throws.

1321
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 4: I don't know if this is like this is could

1322
01:06:28,760 --> 01:06:31,960
Speaker 4: be a good match up for the Seattle offense. Washington

1323
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:35,600
Speaker 4: can't really do some of the things that these defenses

1324
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:38,720
Speaker 4: that can, you know, play man and confuse Gino. I

1325
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,800
Speaker 4: mean Gino in Baltimore had no chance, no chance that

1326
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 4: he was confused and they were playing man out. There

1327
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 4: was nothing he could do. The Seahawks knew it that

1328
01:06:47,320 --> 01:06:50,560
Speaker 4: game was over in you know, five minutes in the

1329
01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 4: Washington can't really do that. So this could be a

1330
01:06:54,880 --> 01:06:57,400
Speaker 4: good a good showing for the Seattle offense because like

1331
01:06:57,400 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 4: you're gonna see the Seattle offensive lines, You're like, whoa

1332
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:02,320
Speaker 4: the Seattle off His looks pretty good and Gino looks good.

1333
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 4: He's not confused back there. You know, he's not facing

1334
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 4: a ton of really good man coverage on the outside.

1335
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:11,480
Speaker 4: This could be one of those games. But I'm right

1336
01:07:11,560 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 4: on the number, Sam, how is still really unpredictable. He's

1337
01:07:15,320 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 4: going to be a high Arran's quarterbacks.

1338
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:18,160
Speaker 3: Early on in his career.

1339
01:07:18,640 --> 01:07:20,760
Speaker 4: You know, with the crowd noise, he could have a

1340
01:07:21,360 --> 01:07:24,000
Speaker 4: keeping mistake here too. So but I'm right on the number.

1341
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 4: I got nothing here.

1342
01:07:25,600 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, It's just it's a bounced back spot for Seattle.

1343
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,280
Speaker 2: I think, you know, teams with a winning percentage of

1344
01:07:32,720 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 2: sixty percent or better, so which I call good teams

1345
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 2: when I make the trend. So a good team off

1346
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:41,600
Speaker 2: a blowout loss which is twenty or more points eighty

1347
01:07:41,680 --> 01:07:44,360
Speaker 2: one and thirty nine the next week against the spread

1348
01:07:44,400 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 2: sixty eight percent over the last two decades, So these

1349
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:50,520
Speaker 2: are I think this was a similar spot to the

1350
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 2: Lions against the Raiders a couple of weeks ago that

1351
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:57,320
Speaker 2: I had on Monday night. So this is another one

1352
01:07:57,320 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 2: of those spots for Seattle. But I mean I could

1353
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 2: see you see, is not really like they're they're solid.

1354
01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:05,680
Speaker 2: We we've talked about this, but they don't like they

1355
01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 2: could they could lose to anyone, pretty much like the

1356
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,440
Speaker 2: Seahawks can lose to almost anyone. So it's it's not

1357
01:08:10,560 --> 01:08:12,800
Speaker 2: a spot where I like really want to bet that

1358
01:08:13,040 --> 01:08:13,880
Speaker 2: based on the trend.

1359
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:18,920
Speaker 6: I do think washing it for a money on dog like, yeah, yeah,

1360
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:19,920
Speaker 6: exactly like this is.

1361
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:22,840
Speaker 2: It's I don't really want anything to do with the

1362
01:08:23,120 --> 01:08:26,640
Speaker 2: spread for Washington because, like you said, it's kind of

1363
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 2: projections right there. But at the same time, the Seattle team,

1364
01:08:30,960 --> 01:08:34,559
Speaker 2: you know, weighing six and a half, it's a bit much,

1365
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:37,200
Speaker 2: especially for against a team that does have a at

1366
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:39,720
Speaker 2: least a quarterback that can you know, bring you back,

1367
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 2: maybe get you uh maybe get you to it in

1368
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 2: three late or something like that.

1369
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:45,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, if it hits sav And I probably dap a

1370
01:08:45,960 --> 01:08:47,400
Speaker 3: little bit on Washington. Uh.

1371
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:51,880
Speaker 2: And then we have the Titans at the Bucks. The

1372
01:08:52,760 --> 01:08:57,439
Speaker 2: Bucks are at home and are favored by a point.

1373
01:08:58,000 --> 01:09:00,920
Speaker 2: The total thirty eight and a half, and I would

1374
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:04,800
Speaker 2: love to continue fading the Bucks. You know, they just

1375
01:09:04,880 --> 01:09:08,320
Speaker 2: haven't been good. It's just different, different things going wrong

1376
01:09:08,439 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 2: each and every week. But you know, this Titan team

1377
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 2: now they have to start Gilard again. They lost was

1378
01:09:14,040 --> 01:09:18,559
Speaker 2: a cetit forre air, and you know, the their run

1379
01:09:18,680 --> 01:09:20,880
Speaker 2: defense has not been as good, but that not that

1380
01:09:21,000 --> 01:09:23,120
Speaker 2: that matters against the Bucks. But their past defense is

1381
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 2: their weakness, which does matter against the Bucks. So I mean,

1382
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:29,360
Speaker 2: I'm surprised to see this total thirty eight and a

1383
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:32,120
Speaker 2: half you know, both of these teams could struggle and coverage,

1384
01:09:32,760 --> 01:09:34,680
Speaker 2: so I'm not a terrible moneyline dog. But you're not

1385
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 2: really getting you know, it's like one minus one ten

1386
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 2: or on both sides.

1387
01:09:38,560 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 3: So nothing really for me to do with this one.

1388
01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:43,559
Speaker 2: I was hoping I could, you know, have a spot

1389
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 2: to fade the Bucks maybe they would get like two

1390
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:48,560
Speaker 2: to two and a half. But at plus one, I

1391
01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:50,160
Speaker 2: don't really I'm not really doing anything.

1392
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 3: What about you? Yeah, nothing here.

1393
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 4: If this gets back up to one and a half,

1394
01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:56,160
Speaker 4: two two and a half could teaser piece with the Titans.

1395
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:58,240
Speaker 3: This will be another data point for me to watch.

1396
01:09:58,280 --> 01:10:00,200
Speaker 3: Will levis other than impressing what I've seen so far.

1397
01:10:00,720 --> 01:10:03,560
Speaker 4: But you're right in that, like the Titans strength is

1398
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:07,320
Speaker 4: still their run day on defense, the Bucks are horrendous

1399
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:11,360
Speaker 4: rushing team, So like this is just going to force

1400
01:10:12,400 --> 01:10:15,559
Speaker 4: the Bucks to throw and they get a pressure get

1401
01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 4: no pressure, which so this is a good like a

1402
01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:20,840
Speaker 4: good matchup for the Bucks offense and Baker Mayfield. You're

1403
01:10:20,880 --> 01:10:23,800
Speaker 4: not generating a ton of natural pressure. You're forced to

1404
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:26,439
Speaker 4: throw against a bad secondary, so there could be a

1405
01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:28,600
Speaker 4: lot of explosive place here. Like you said, maybe on

1406
01:10:28,680 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 4: both ends, I don't hate the overlook, but I'm pretty

1407
01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 4: on market here.

1408
01:10:32,439 --> 01:10:35,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, since the BUYE Bucks worst pass defensive league, I

1409
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:38,960
Speaker 2: mean obviously that is you know c J. Stroud, but uh,

1410
01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:41,479
Speaker 2: it was even before that. Their their past defense is

1411
01:10:41,680 --> 01:10:43,920
Speaker 2: not not being great.

1412
01:10:44,600 --> 01:10:49,240
Speaker 4: Jamel Dean's in protocol, so I would guess not doesn't play,

1413
01:10:50,680 --> 01:10:53,360
Speaker 4: but you never know with them. And then Christian Izien

1414
01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:59,560
Speaker 4: he's in concussion protocol as well, So yeah, that secondary

1415
01:10:59,600 --> 01:11:03,879
Speaker 4: you're then and you're down to like you got Carlton

1416
01:11:03,920 --> 01:11:06,240
Speaker 4: davisone and then you're you're counting on the column and

1417
01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:09,280
Speaker 4: d Delaney one of those goes one of those players

1418
01:11:09,320 --> 01:11:13,280
Speaker 4: goes down. Yeah, I mean you're down to like Josh Hayes. Uh,

1419
01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:16,519
Speaker 4: the Bucks cornerback situation could be dicey. Keep an eye

1420
01:11:16,560 --> 01:11:16,680
Speaker 4: on that.

1421
01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be I mean.

1422
01:11:18,280 --> 01:11:22,120
Speaker 2: They're it's our They're already just bleeding passing production. So yeah,

1423
01:11:22,160 --> 01:11:24,599
Speaker 2: that that could be interesting for for Levis and they.

1424
01:11:25,200 --> 01:11:27,000
Speaker 2: I mean that's what Levis does. He's gonna be able

1425
01:11:27,040 --> 01:11:29,240
Speaker 2: to throw the ball down the field. So yeah, I

1426
01:11:29,240 --> 01:11:30,960
Speaker 2: would definitely watch out for that. But maybe just look

1427
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:33,760
Speaker 2: at the total in this one too, because yeah, both

1428
01:11:33,920 --> 01:11:36,360
Speaker 2: both quarterbacks, I mean you don't know what you're doing.

1429
01:11:37,040 --> 01:11:38,840
Speaker 2: And Mayfield has been playing well for what it's worse.

1430
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:43,600
Speaker 2: I mean he almost even with everything Stroud did, Mayfield almost.

1431
01:11:43,360 --> 01:11:44,040
Speaker 3: Got the best of them.

1432
01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:47,599
Speaker 2: Like if if a Goomble doesn't make that field goal,

1433
01:11:48,320 --> 01:11:48,840
Speaker 2: who knows what.

1434
01:11:48,880 --> 01:11:49,519
Speaker 3: We're talking about.

1435
01:11:49,600 --> 01:11:52,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, all right, let's close it out with our

1436
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:52,880
Speaker 2: Survivor pool Pick.

1437
01:11:52,800 --> 01:12:01,840
Speaker 1: It a week survive pol pick of the week.

1438
01:12:03,120 --> 01:12:11,679
Speaker 2: So went Washington Giants, Chiefs, Niners in weeks one through four, Dolphins, Bills, Seahawks, Ravens,

1439
01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:15,559
Speaker 2: and five through eight Saints last week. Got it done

1440
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 2: this week, gotta go Dallas Cowboys. Just don't really see

1441
01:12:20,640 --> 01:12:23,760
Speaker 2: any spot that I like better than sixteen and a

1442
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:28,280
Speaker 2: half and probably rising against Tommy DeVito and maybe Barkley

1443
01:12:28,400 --> 01:12:30,400
Speaker 2: or Easton or whoever. I don't know, because every time

1444
01:12:30,479 --> 01:12:32,640
Speaker 2: we get like one of these trash backup quarterbacks, he

1445
01:12:32,680 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 2: seems to get hurt and you get like a trasher

1446
01:12:34,600 --> 01:12:38,719
Speaker 2: backup of the backup of the backup. So who knows

1447
01:12:38,920 --> 01:12:41,080
Speaker 2: who ends up finishing this game for the Giants. But

1448
01:12:41,960 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 2: they quit to beato. My quit at the half, just

1449
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:48,000
Speaker 2: like rage quit, just like turn off the system. I'm

1450
01:12:48,080 --> 01:12:52,160
Speaker 2: gone take off the headsick like, no, who did that?

1451
01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:54,559
Speaker 2: Vonte Davis, Vonte Pullvonte Davis.

1452
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:56,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1453
01:12:56,240 --> 01:12:59,479
Speaker 2: But so the Cowboys play at Carolina in week eleven,

1454
01:12:59,560 --> 01:13:01,400
Speaker 2: I guess that's next week. Yeah, next week, and then

1455
01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:05,760
Speaker 2: they're home against Washington in week twelve, and like those

1456
01:13:05,800 --> 01:13:09,840
Speaker 2: are the only two things other games you'd even consider.

1457
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:12,160
Speaker 3: And I think this Giant game is far superior.

1458
01:13:12,160 --> 01:13:15,120
Speaker 2: I mean, Washington is feisty and beat Dallas last year

1459
01:13:15,200 --> 01:13:17,880
Speaker 2: from not Sam Howell beat the Cowboys in a game

1460
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:22,560
Speaker 2: I think they were trying. And you know, at Carolina

1461
01:13:22,680 --> 01:13:25,000
Speaker 2: is probably a win for the Cowboys, but still not

1462
01:13:25,080 --> 01:13:26,920
Speaker 2: as good as a home favorite against de Vito. So

1463
01:13:27,560 --> 01:13:29,519
Speaker 2: go in Dallas here in week ten. We'll see if

1464
01:13:29,520 --> 01:13:30,840
Speaker 2: we can keep it going right.

1465
01:13:30,840 --> 01:13:32,600
Speaker 4: Hope we watched them in the sidelines again for the

1466
01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:34,720
Speaker 4: eighth straight week because I took the Broncos.

1467
01:13:35,040 --> 01:13:36,720
Speaker 3: The Denver Broncos.

1468
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:38,679
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I think I'm one of the last

1469
01:13:38,720 --> 01:13:41,800
Speaker 2: like sixteen or sixteen orlive in our Action Survivors. So

1470
01:13:42,160 --> 01:13:44,519
Speaker 2: we'll see how that. Yew that because the thing is

1471
01:13:44,640 --> 01:13:46,680
Speaker 2: like everyone listens to the pod, so they kind of

1472
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:49,040
Speaker 2: I'm at like a disadvantage because everyone kind of knows

1473
01:13:49,040 --> 01:13:52,960
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna do but yeah, one out of sixteen left,

1474
01:13:53,800 --> 01:13:55,840
Speaker 2: so that is going to do it for us. Though,

1475
01:13:56,720 --> 01:13:58,880
Speaker 2: thank you for listening. We'll be back every Thursday all

1476
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:01,400
Speaker 2: season long. You can hear more of me this week

1477
01:14:01,560 --> 01:14:04,320
Speaker 2: with my guy Kerner talking fantasy dfs all that good

1478
01:14:04,320 --> 01:14:08,000
Speaker 2: stuff on the Fantasy Flex podcast and check out the

1479
01:14:08,040 --> 01:14:09,240
Speaker 2: Action Network discord.

1480
01:14:08,960 --> 01:14:09,559
Speaker 3: Server as well.

1481
01:14:09,960 --> 01:14:12,720
Speaker 2: The wink will be in the episode description. You can

1482
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:16,679
Speaker 2: hear Stuck talking college football over on the Big Bets

1483
01:14:16,720 --> 01:14:19,880
Speaker 2: on Campus Pod Friday morning, and you can find Stuck

1484
01:14:19,960 --> 01:14:23,320
Speaker 2: on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybaud. We're

1485
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:27,400
Speaker 2: at those same handles on a free award winning Action

1486
01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:31,120
Speaker 2: Network app that'll start. By the way, you're watch any

1487
01:14:31,320 --> 01:14:34,240
Speaker 2: women's college basketball though in the tournament.

1488
01:14:33,880 --> 01:14:37,360
Speaker 3: I'll watch a little bit, watch Caitlyn Clark this.

1489
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:40,799
Speaker 2: Uh, that chick that Katie was tweeting about my lasier

1490
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:43,840
Speaker 2: for Wiley. I was watching summer highlights, man, like that's

1491
01:14:44,360 --> 01:14:46,080
Speaker 2: gotta be the first time.

1492
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:51,160
Speaker 3: Like I was just like South Carolina game Cocks. She was, yeah,

1493
01:14:51,200 --> 01:14:54,080
Speaker 3: I've seen I've seen her. Yeah, she's got moves.

1494
01:14:54,200 --> 01:14:57,240
Speaker 2: Man. So I'm I think her next game is Sunday,

1495
01:14:57,320 --> 01:14:59,360
Speaker 2: so I might have to take a little break from

1496
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:01,760
Speaker 2: or have like another screen with that on because yes

1497
01:15:02,200 --> 01:15:05,880
Speaker 2: I'm not too big, or just never really got into

1498
01:15:06,600 --> 01:15:09,519
Speaker 2: women's college but like she's she's kind of making me

1499
01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:11,040
Speaker 2: watch so looking forward to that.

1500
01:15:11,200 --> 01:15:12,839
Speaker 3: But I digress.

1501
01:15:12,920 --> 01:15:16,360
Speaker 2: Until next time was get Hish money, letok Go.

1502
01:15:23,320 --> 01:15:27,400
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1503
01:15:27,439 --> 01:15:29,960
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

1504
01:15:29,960 --> 01:15:32,759
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler