1 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly 2 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,479 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. I'm Sarah Ponza, a markets reporter on the 3 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: Cross Asset Team, and i am Mike Creagan, a senior 4 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: editor on the Markets Team. This week on the show, 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: from long shot to base Case, Wall Street is growing 6 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: increasingly pestimistic, but a trade deal might not be reached 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 1: over the summer months, and even as the Fed preaches patients, 8 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 1: bonn yields continue to fall, with the ten year treasury 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: yield reaching the lowest level since And of course, Sara, 10 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: we will finish the show with the ever popular the 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: Craziest Thing I Ever saw in markets? This week, at 12 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: least this week. I hope you have a good one. 13 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: Do you have a good crazy thing? I will have 14 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: a good one by the end of the podcast. All right, 15 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: I've got a good one. No pressure on our guests 16 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: with the mind's mind's pretty good. I'm just throwing it 17 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: out there. That's it. I'm not trying. Well, that's one 18 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: of our guests there, Emily Barrett, you better have something good. Uh. 19 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 1: Emily is our correspondent straight fresh from the trade wards 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 1: covering the bonds and FX markets. That's exactly how it feels, 21 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: and also joining us on the show, Gina Martin Adams, 22 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: the chief equity strategist here at Bloomberg. Gina spent many 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: years as a strategist, said Wells Fargo Wacoba Corp. Before that. 24 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: But Sarah, I was looking at Gina's bio something I 25 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: did not know about her. She's a Gator really, yes, 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: you know that. I am from South Florida as well. 27 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 1: I'm a Gator by birth. I know that's too Florida 28 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: women on the show. I don't know. Florida women don't 29 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: make the news quite as entertaining as Yeah, but maybe 30 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: we can change that. But don't underestimate that. But this week, 31 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: we've been talking about US China trade for a while now, 32 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: but it seems like we got a bit of a 33 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: step up. We think about what's changed, for one being 34 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: the Huaweb acliss. We've also heard talks that other surveillance 35 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: companies out of China could be blacklisted as well. And 36 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 1: we even have a fight song out of China and 37 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 1: for Gators. I went to school at Michigan. You know 38 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: a good fight song can really rile people up. Gina, 39 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: from your perspective is this becoming something that traders investors 40 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: can really no longer ignore. Yeah, I don't necessarily think 41 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: they have ignored it, but it did take a new 42 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,679 Speaker 1: step this week, and it took a step into a 43 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: tech war as opposed to just a trade war. I 44 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: think when you look back over the course of the 45 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: last year, that's been the most dangerous aspect of the U. S. 46 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 1: China relationship shift. It's not the tariffs. The tariffs are 47 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 1: a teeny tiny portion of GDP growth, They're a teeny 48 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: tiny portion of earnings growth. You know, you've run through 49 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: the quantification of tariffs and you find out real quick 50 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 1: how small they are, which is why stocks could sort 51 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: of bounce around in the one to three percent decline 52 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: range up until this week, and we did see an 53 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: elevated level of volatility this week. We've seen a lot 54 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: more angst evident in broad market classes, with the rise 55 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: in gold as a good example. This week. Small caps 56 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: really getting creamed this week, So much bigger risk off 57 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: sentiment this week than last week. And I think the 58 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: reason for that is this week it became about tech, 59 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: not about trade. Gee, I'm curious, in uh your career, 60 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 1: have you ever thought about politics? As much as as 61 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 1: we have through these days, it seems like a very 62 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: uncomfortable thing for fundamental technical analysts. Yeah, it's uh. I 63 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: have thought about politics a lot over the course of 64 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: the last several years. I mean, I can distinctly remember 65 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: sixteen as a year in which it was all you know, 66 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: the popular sentiment on Wall Street was if Hillary Clinton, 67 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: when stocks should do fine, if trade, if Trump, when 68 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: stocks are gonna get pummeled, right, and the opposite, The 69 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:56,119 Speaker 1: exact opposite thing occurred right after the Trump election. Then 70 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: the thing was stocks just climbed this walla wari because 71 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: everyone was really concerned about Trump. I think throughout my 72 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: career I've always had to focus on policy in general, 73 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: but more so on monetary policy than on fiscal policy, 74 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:13,119 Speaker 1: and certainly never on trade policy. And you know, even 75 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: the smodest trade policy movements in the Bush administration weren't 76 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 1: so meaningful for the broad market. So it's definitely a 77 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: very different kind of policy that we were now focused on. 78 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: Though policy is always important, it's just usually monetary rather 79 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: than than trade or fiscal that really matters. And you 80 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: mentioned how and I think everyone's doing this now. You 81 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: take the x percent tariffs on x dollar value of goods, 82 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: and you get why you get a certain effect on 83 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 1: earnings on revenue, But I wonder is there more to 84 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,119 Speaker 1: it than that? Or there's sort of unquantifiable risks uh 85 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: to confidence, to sentiment, that sort of thing, and and 86 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: how you know, how do you wrap your head around 87 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 1: that as the type of strategist you are who is 88 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: deep into the numbers. Yeah, it's it's frankly, very very 89 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: difficult because behavioral and nalys this is a huge part 90 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: of markets, and I think the only way to really 91 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 1: analyze the potential impact to this is through price itself. 92 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: You know, we can all speculate as to what it 93 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: means for GDP growth globally. We can all speculate us 94 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: to how much this is either inflationary or deflationary, but 95 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: the hard truth is nobody knows. We could try to 96 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: quantify it, we could try to pretend we know more 97 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: than anybody else, but the reality is the market itself, 98 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: which is an aggregate of millions and millions of people's opinions, 99 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: is probably smarter than any of us in this room. Right. 100 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: I've made a whole career out of pretending I know 101 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: more than you and so I watch price very very carefully, 102 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: and what price tells me right now is okay. So 103 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: far the risk of this there's somewhat contained five percent 104 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: correction and stocks is nothing. These things come around every 105 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,799 Speaker 1: nine months or so on average. But if we start 106 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: to work our way towards ten percent, we break that 107 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: ten percent line, it becomes very clear that the market's 108 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: impression of this is something much worse. Right now. Something 109 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: I've been hearing as to why markets have been decently resilient. 110 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: We're not too far off the highs, like you said, 111 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: is that you look at the economic data, you look 112 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: at the fundamentals, and they're still largely strong. However, this 113 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: past week we did see some weaker p m I 114 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: numbers in the US, not yet contracting, but pretty close 115 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: on the cusp. What could it take to really push 116 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: us off the edge? Yeah, so historically you're not pushed 117 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: off the edge until manufacturing pm I in the US 118 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: is all the way down at forty three. I think 119 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: the market will absolutely hesitate reach a point of very 120 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 1: big insecurity if I s M falls below fifty. Uh. 121 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: That's one of the big keys that we watch. Initial 122 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: claims is another one. Incredibly important to the direction of 123 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 1: equities long term initial claims. If initial claims start rising, 124 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: and especially if they rise more than fifty thousand, start 125 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: to move towards seventy in a rise, you're pretty much 126 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: assured that you're falling into recession. Uh. The other thing 127 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: to watch is, of course the bond markets. We you 128 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: still haven't had that inversion of the two stents at 129 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,679 Speaker 1: least ust I checked, and that's a big key trigger 130 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: for the equity market sentiment as well. So there are 131 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: a lot of different things that I think you want 132 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: to watch for the economic data. You know, frankly, consumer confidence, 133 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: which is still near a fifteen year high, is still 134 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: pretty supportive, So you need to see a big deterioration 135 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: and consumer confidence as well. That's a good segue into 136 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: our next guest on the Bonds team, Emily. You had 137 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 1: a story out UM this week talking about the market 138 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: expectations for inflation. I just want to read one line 139 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: because I think it's it's pretty important. Uh. You write 140 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: that since consumer price gains have been lagging the FEDS 141 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: two percent target for much of the past decade, it's 142 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: a little wonder that inflation isn't a hot topic in 143 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: the market yet don't don't done, but it may be 144 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: warming up, with the Fed actively debating how it can 145 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: meet its inflation goals, including a June fourth the Fifth 146 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: Conference to discuss different approaches. I feel like the trade 147 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: tensions are uh causing a lot of confusion about what 148 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: we should expect for inflation. Obviously, the market is pricing 149 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: in lower inflation going forward, um, but a lot of 150 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: people are talking about the pure inflationary effects of the 151 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: tariffs on the consumer. What is sort of the consensus 152 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: out there or what's the smartest take you've heard about 153 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: what we should expect as far as inflation in the 154 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: trade trade war? Right? Yeah, I mean this is the 155 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: interesting thing. I think people trying to seggregate what's the 156 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: shorter term issue in terms of the inflation impact, and 157 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: directly I've seen some golden Sax golden Sax analysis saying, 158 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: you know, this is the boost that we might see 159 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: two c p I and the mean in sort of 160 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: the medium term. But people are really focusing on that 161 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: longer term potential drag on growth, and as they're looking 162 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: to that, they're sort of seeing if growth starts to slow, 163 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: then you have more and more headwinds to that inflationary impulse, 164 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: and so really that's where we're seeing this decline and 165 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: break evens, which is the inflation premium that it built 166 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: into treasuries. Um, we're seeing that just coming down and down. 167 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 1: And that's despite the fact that you know, we've had 168 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: tariffs put on their other things that's been oil ice 169 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 1: gains sort of uh in the year to date hasn't 170 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: been reflected at all, and normally breaking evans would follow 171 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: that pretty closely. So we're seeing this kind of really 172 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: sort of counterintuitive moving inflation markets. And it's because you know, 173 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: people talk for ages about secular stactation. You've got bored 174 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: of hearing about this, But it seems that the forces 175 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: that are pressuring inflation lower and it's not just in 176 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 1: the US, it's globally and so much stronger else where. 177 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: People would argue, really our top of mind for most investors, 178 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: and so that's going to be hard to fight. And 179 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 1: this is this is where it comes down to people's 180 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: expectations for rate cuts. I mean, there's a sense in 181 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: the market that the FED, if it's going to be 182 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: serious about hitting its two percent inflation target, is really 183 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: going to need to take some action on rates to 184 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 1: lower them. Um. And people have gone so far as 185 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: to say, a couple of people I spoke to, you know, 186 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: it's not just one KUD. It's probably two or three 187 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: if you want to hit UM. The thing that's interesting 188 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: about where CPI is at the moment is relative to 189 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 1: the fed's target. The FED prefers consumption expenditure, so they'll 190 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: look at a PC rate which is actually forty basis 191 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: points below where CPI is. So um. So that's it's 192 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: even worse really if you look at their fads preferred measure. 193 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are looking at the 194 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: FED minutes that came out this week and calling it 195 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: old news. UM. But I ran a little control fine 196 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: just to see where the word transitory comes up, and 197 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: transitory appeared twice as it relates to inflation, whereas the 198 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: last time around we saw the word transitory once, but 199 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: it was related to GDP and first quarter slower growth 200 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: being transitory. What else did we possibly learn from the minutes, 201 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 1: if it's possible to clean anything more from what we've 202 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: heard from Fed officials, I think what people wanted to see. 203 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: I mean, this must be the shortest lived transitory impact 204 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: on markets, ever, because after you know, when Fed, the 205 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: Fed's Powell was really pushing that transitory message, you know, 206 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: what's weighing on inflation is going to be very short lived. 207 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: You did see a market correction that started to sell 208 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,319 Speaker 1: off a little. Oh right, Okay, we might come back 209 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: if the Fed believes this is going to happen. But 210 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 1: that just got crushed. And what the it's gave us 211 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 1: was this sense that at least among the f O 212 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: m C, that the FEDS Committee, there is a broad 213 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 1: agreement that these or at least they're on message, that 214 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: people seem to think that, yes, this could be a 215 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 1: transitory impact. But from the people I've spoken to, they're 216 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 1: listening at the fact to the fact that the transitory 217 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: effects don't quite make up for the short form inflation, 218 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 1: and they really do believe that there are stronger forces 219 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: at work here. So what we learned from the minutes, 220 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: it's a really good question. I mean, I'm not even 221 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: sure that uh, you know, the trade impact wasn't factored 222 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: in because obviously most of the trade fallout really happened 223 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: after the minutes were released. Um, so the bump that 224 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: we should have got, well, we've got no much more 225 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: hope of getting it back really at this point. Now 226 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: you know, if the break evens are right and we're 227 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: due for some weaker inflation going forward, what does that 228 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,439 Speaker 1: make certain sectors, certain factors look more attractive to you? 229 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: How would how would you recommend playing sort of the 230 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: low inflation in Well, it depends on if we are 231 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 1: indeed in for a transitory or a longer term sort 232 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: of disinflationary deflationary in trend first start. But if we 233 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: assume that it's very very short term, more than likely, 234 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: it pushes you into more defensive sort of sectors. And 235 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: I think we've seen that over the course of the 236 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: last couple of months. Our sector strategy model even pushed 237 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: us into defensive sectors as early as the end of April, 238 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: and that largely reflects what's happening in rates. And rates 239 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: are rallying so much, indicating that this inflation pressure is 240 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: somewhat nil, at least in the short run, suggesting that 241 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: the downside risk to growth is still pretty evident. And 242 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: at a time after stocks had already rallied tremendously in 243 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: the first quarter, the valuation multiple started to shift as well. 244 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: On the cyclicals versus defensives. Call I could tell you 245 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: one sector it absolutely suggests you want to stay away from, 246 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: and this is manifestings price performance as well as energy. 247 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: There's one sector that is just constantly the inflation play 248 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: in the equity market. It's energy and then, to a 249 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: lesser extent, materials. As much as this last month of 250 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: weakness in the equity market seems to have been about tech, 251 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: the energy sector is down four bases points more than 252 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: tech stocks. I mean, it's just getting crushed. It's making 253 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: new relative price lows in comparison to the SMP five hundred, 254 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: and has been persistently for the last several years. So 255 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: the equity signal is actually very deflationary. If not deflationary, 256 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: then at least disinflationary, and has persisted through a long 257 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: period of time. At the beginning of the year, I 258 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: heard the case being made a lot that we needed 259 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: to see energy prices close the gap with oil prices 260 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: because we had seen oil rally so much. Well, now 261 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: clearly we're seeing oil prices roll over, we're seeing energy 262 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: stocks roll over. Is the case for that for energy 263 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: prices to move up to oil prices and close the 264 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: gap kind of disintegrating. Yeah, you know, that gap has 265 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: been existing for the last three years, so you could 266 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: even take it all the way back ton when the 267 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: gaps started to widen. You know, I think that the 268 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: terrible fate for energy stocks is unfortunately, every time oil 269 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 1: prices rise, it's met with a new wave of supply, 270 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: which constrains profitability and constrains the inevitent and constrains the 271 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: oil price from continuing to rise. And that's very well 272 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: played out in energy stocks and energy investors. Investors just 273 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: don't want to touch the sector on that premise alone. 274 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: From a sentiment perspective, you gotta love energy for a 275 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: long term sort of sentiment call. You're looking at a 276 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: sector that's now less as a share of market cap 277 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: of the SMP five than it was in oil prices 278 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: were ten dollars of barrel. So nobody wants to touch 279 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: this stuff. But how do you jump in in the 280 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: face of clear signals from the rates market generally sort 281 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: of depressed economic signals relative to where we were at 282 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: least a year ago, stock price signals that are still 283 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: very very negative, and frankly, the dynamics of oil supply 284 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: and demand are different today than they were ten years ago. 285 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: So it's a tough space, and there's just not a 286 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: lot to suggest that that gap necessarily needs to close, 287 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: because frankly, oil prices keep closing back toward energy stocks 288 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: every time they try to rally, and that's just a 289 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: the fracking boom. I take it just to supply. Yeah, 290 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: I mean, if you think about sort of how things 291 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: have changed over the last decade or so, go back 292 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: to two thousand seven, two thousand and eight, when oil 293 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: prices were moving towards a hundred and fifty dollars and 294 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: the sentiment was we're never going to find supply again. 295 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: I mean, there's just just not enough oil in the world. 296 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: And so yeah, over the course of the next several years, 297 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: we found out, oh lo and behold, there is actually 298 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: plenty of supply. We just needed to use new technologies 299 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: to get to it. That's created this massive downtrend and 300 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: oil prices really since they peaked in twenty two seven 301 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: and then again in and the result of that is 302 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: just this this persistence of supply, or even the perceived 303 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: persistence of supply, con strange your upward potential for price growth, 304 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: and it's feeding through the energy stocks. Emily to get 305 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: back to the Fed minutes. There's this weird situation that 306 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: happens where, Okay, the trade war escalates a couple of 307 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 1: weeks ago with President Trump's tweets, and then he follows 308 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: through and raises the tariffs. Then along come the minutes, 309 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: which are reflecting a meeting that occurred before that. So 310 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: yet people still seem to react to them. I mean, 311 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: assuming this is the last best evidence we've gotten from 312 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve on their thinking, but at some point 313 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: that people just to ignore them. You've talked to a 314 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: lot of investors after the minutes. Presumably they're still reading 315 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: these minutes even though so much has changed since then, 316 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: or did they discount them to some degree. I think 317 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: this is the weird thing, And this is the thing 318 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 1: that always makes me just sigh and kind of a 319 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: scream sometimes when you look at the minutes, because like 320 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 1: this is essentially stale news, right, and particularly at this point, 321 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: because it's prior to all of the trade stuff that happened. 322 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 1: So I was actually really interested myself to see what 323 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 1: the market was going to do to this, And it 324 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 1: just it's funny because I don't know if people actually 325 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: forget they're still they're so busy reading the Fed's ruins 326 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: sometimes that any signal like this sort of smoke signal 327 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 1: is is going to tell them what to do. But 328 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 1: I think the interesting thing that most people are trying 329 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 1: to pause out of that document is how much consensus 330 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: is there, how firmly held a belief is this in 331 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: the ft and how difficult might it be to dislodge, 332 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,880 Speaker 1: Like how much they're looking at the data really and 333 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: what what is their interpretation of the data, so people 334 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,679 Speaker 1: are astant. The thing that I find most amusing is 335 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: looking at how people understand the word few versus several 336 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: versus a number of versus some, you know, as a 337 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: measure of how many people on the committee actually hold 338 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: a certain view. So that's that's one of the things 339 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 1: you talk about stale news. If you looked at the 340 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: staff economic projections in the minute, they actually talked about 341 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: how trade the U. S and China coming together was 342 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: positive relaptimistic. So that's changed since ad minutes were actually written. 343 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: I want to ask you, though, how far off does 344 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: it seem like the bond market is from where the 345 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: FED actually stands at this point in time. This is 346 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 1: starting to feel as if that disconnect is actually widening again. 347 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: I mean, we saw earlier this year there was you know, 348 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 1: the market was really doubling down to say even as 349 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: many as you know, sort of too high starting to 350 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 1: get pricing. We're getting closer to that now. I think 351 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: that the interesting point from what the market is pricing 352 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: in is there is actually now still more than one 353 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 1: hike pricing by the end of the year, just a 354 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 1: little more. The Fed, I think that after giving that 355 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: message of transient, they're just sitting there with that for 356 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: the time being, and it seems as if that that 357 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 1: conviction among policymakers is really at odds with the markets 358 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 1: movements lately. Um, but it's hard to see. I mean, 359 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 1: as as you Jina, you were discussing before, you know, 360 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: the data are still reasonably strong. There's there's actually looking 361 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 1: at it objectively from a dispassionate viewpoint, it's hard to 362 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: see whether the FED would find a decent case to 363 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: cut rates at this point. And now that they're starting 364 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 1: up their inflation review, this is going to become a 365 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,239 Speaker 1: really interesting topic to follow over the next couple of 366 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,199 Speaker 1: months because they're really going to have to look at 367 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: what other kinds of strategies they might take to try 368 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 1: and meet their mandate. Now, Gina, you have a lot 369 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: of letters after your name, C F, A, c MT. 370 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: I also have three names. I'm just trying to extend 371 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: their business parts has continued on the part of the game. 372 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: So I was I was curious to see your technicals, 373 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: putting your CMT had on Chartered Market technician and and 374 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: looking at the technicals. Um so walk us through two things. 375 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: I'm curious a sort of what levels you're looking at, 376 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 1: but also is it the time right now where technicals 377 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: kind of take a backseat to the fact that everyone's 378 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: waiting for the next head line, waiting for the next tweet? 379 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: You know, are there times when you sort of uh 380 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,719 Speaker 1: discount technicals to some degree and don't give them as 381 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: much weight as you normally would and and are we 382 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 1: in a period like that now? I never discount technicals. 383 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: I am a technician. I think they're actually always valuable 384 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: at every market stage, and they're valuable in different ways. 385 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 1: They give you different signals, either they're confirming or not 386 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: confirming your fundamental case. That gives you a reason to 387 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: go back and look at the fundamental case. Nonetheless, I 388 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: think you know right now what the technicals are saying 389 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: is near term, there's just not a lot of reason 390 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 1: for optimism. It's still markets, you know, maybe testing the 391 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: early maylow's, which were support levels created by resistance points 392 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: that we had matched on the SMP five hundred back 393 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,959 Speaker 1: in the October attempt at an advance, in November attempt 394 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: at advance, and then during the rise earlier this year 395 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: we sort of got stuck in this level in the 396 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: SMP five dred. We're back there again. If we can 397 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: hold these levels, fantastic stocks are probably in pretty good shape. 398 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: But it's really questionable because you're getting breakdown, some small capture, 399 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: getting breakdown some semiconductors, you're getting breakdowns and transportation stocks. 400 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 1: Just the near term weakness is evident. Longer term, is 401 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: there any evidence of the bull market is over? No? Right, 402 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: I mean, even the line last year only confirmed that 403 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 1: the bolt trend is still intact because it bottomed right 404 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: at major support lines that have existed since two thousand nine. 405 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 1: I use a fifty week a lot, but that really 406 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: defines sort of shorter term bull trends and bear trends. 407 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: The fifty week moving average on the SMP five hundreds 408 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 1: right around twenty seven, seventy seven, seventy six right now, 409 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 1: Uh that if we crossed through the fifty week, then 410 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: you're most likely going to continue to go lower and 411 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 1: see a fifteen correction again. But you have to go 412 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: all the way down into the twenty three hundreds to 413 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: really eliminate the long term bultr And so just thinking 414 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 1: perspective wise, you could easily have another recession with the 415 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 1: correction and stocks and you're still in a long term 416 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 1: secular bowl market right short term, you're absolutely in another 417 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:17,199 Speaker 1: barish condition like we were in. But you've got to 418 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: have a significant dismantling of trend in order to eliminate 419 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 1: the overall bowl trend that's been in place for now 420 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 1: more than ten years. How about my personal favorite shampoo, 421 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: head and shoulders. A lot of people are talking about 422 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: a head and shoulders. People are talking about the size 423 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: of the neckline. I know, I am. But the other 424 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: the really strong, fundamentally like tenant of technical analysis is 425 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: you never call a pattern before it actually occurs. And 426 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 1: that's what people are at risk of doing. Um I 427 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 1: think you know, to call this a head and shoulders, 428 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 1: you have to have a significant breakdown beneath the neckline. 429 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 1: I haven't had that yet. To call it a triple top, 430 00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,199 Speaker 1: you've got to have a similar breakdown, So I, you know, 431 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: just I like to follow the rules, despite the fact 432 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 1: that I'm from Florida or Florida. The rules of technical 433 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: analysis say, don't get hasty to call a pattern before 434 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 1: it actually occurs. All right, Well, there's one role in 435 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: this podcast, and it's a few shop. You have to 436 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 1: have a crazy thing, the craziest thing you've seen in 437 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: markets this week. So Emily is looking nervous. I don't 438 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 1: think I don't think she prepared. Let her go, hang on, 439 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 1: hang on, you have little faith. I actually I tried here. 440 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 1: I don't want to go to last because then you're 441 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:32,959 Speaker 1: going to give you a great ones and then I'm 442 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: going to kind of limp in with. So yeah, I'll 443 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: go first. Okay, this is this is a royalties thing, 444 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: so it's not actually a markets thing to say, but 445 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 1: it's about money, so it's tradable asset all out. But 446 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: I was a fan of the Verve back in the nineties. 447 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: So there's this song Bitter Sweet Symphony. If anyone knows 448 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: that I was very fond of it has this lovely 449 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 1: string sort of intro to it. And it turns out 450 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: that Richard Ashcroft, the lead singer of the Verve, lost 451 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 1: the royalties to that song because he sam put a 452 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 1: little too much of a Stone song to do it, 453 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:06,959 Speaker 1: and so the Stones ended up getting all the royaltists. 454 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 1: At that time, it was huge, That album was huge, 455 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: um and they just recently gave him back. So so 456 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: they petitioned for Mick Jagger to handback the royalties. Mate 457 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: without hesitation apparently said there just out of their good nature. Well, 458 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: I'm suspecting they may not have needed it. I thought 459 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: you're gonna go Rick Astley there. I thought I was 460 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 1: getting Rick rolled for a minute that I'm trying to 461 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: think of the fact that about him next, alright, Gina 462 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: Martin Adams. Yeah, So I'm afraid I'm going to disappoint 463 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: everyone because mine is incredibly obvious. But it just has 464 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 1: to be noted that we had a video go viral 465 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: out of China with a giant gold fist and a 466 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: nationalist populist message that suggests like the Soviet Union is 467 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: rising again, except for its in China. I see that 468 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,719 Speaker 1: video and I'm just blown away. If you haven't seen it, 469 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 1: you need to go out and search the Chinese trade 470 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,679 Speaker 1: war fight song. It's it's just amazing and really, you know, 471 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,959 Speaker 1: and then you have all the just the amp up 472 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: in uh sort of this nationalistic sort of message coming 473 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 1: out of China this week has been extraordinarily aggressively. They're 474 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,120 Speaker 1: not backing down. You know. It also tells me this 475 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,919 Speaker 1: is a lot about tech. This is not And then 476 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 1: I go back to what I said at the beginning. 477 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: Everybody's focused on trade. It is not about trade. It's 478 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 1: about tech and who's going to be the global leader 479 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: in technology development and advancement and dissemination around the world 480 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: over the next several decades. So China is not backing 481 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 1: down because they're taking this really seriously. We have to 482 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 1: bring back onto singing for US translator. He's sang the 483 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: US bond Markets theme song last week, so pretty impressive. 484 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 1: Also last week I have to bring us an update 485 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 1: just because last week, for those of you who didn't 486 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: tune in, we talked about how Steve Minusian's dad Um 487 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 1: actually bought a ninety over ninety million dollar bunny rabbit. 488 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,679 Speaker 1: It was an art piece um on the behalf of 489 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 1: someone and now we know that it was on behalf 490 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,880 Speaker 1: of point seventy two is Steve Colin Um so he 491 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: is now I think I can't believe we didn't guess that. Yeah, yeah, 492 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 1: he is now the owner of a beloved over ninety 493 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: million dollars silver inflatable bunny rabbit. Pretty amazing. Um. But 494 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 1: another one that I'll bring forwards this week that I 495 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 1: guess two is kind of obvious Tesla. I mean, we 496 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: have analysts coming out one after another going as far 497 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: as saying that the worst case scenario, we could see 498 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,640 Speaker 1: Tesla stock fall down to ten dollars to share, and 499 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: we did see Tesla fall below two d dollars a share, 500 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: which we haven't seen in quite a while. So pretty amazing. 501 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: I've got to say it is that is a soap 502 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 1: opera for the ages. I think, yes, all right, I'll 503 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: give you mine. Uh Now, Sarah, it was a pretty 504 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,679 Speaker 1: ugly day in the stock market on Thursday. You wouldn't 505 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,399 Speaker 1: expect to see a lot of companies rising. What if 506 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,440 Speaker 1: I told you there was a stock that rose thousand 507 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: and nine percent on Thursday? It's this is why I 508 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 1: love the penny stocks. There. Uh So, Rhino International Corp. 509 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: It's a Chinese company. Sounds legit right, designs, manufacturers, installs 510 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:27,360 Speaker 1: and services, proprietary and patented wastewater treatment, desultur ization equipment 511 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 1: and YadA, YadA, YadA. Anyway, Yes, it rose to one 512 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: penny a true penny stock from one one of a penny. 513 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: Um by by my math, it required about seven hundred 514 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: bucks to do this. The funny thing is the market 515 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 1: cap of the company yesterday. It was only like two 516 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty eight dollars period, not millions. So um. 517 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: Congratulations to all the shareholders of Rhino International Core about there. Uh. 518 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 1: I try to find out more about the company, but 519 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,640 Speaker 1: when you click on their website are web secure software 520 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 1: prevented me from seeing I think you know? Yeah yeah. 521 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: But with that said, Gina, Martin Adams, Emily Barrett, thank 522 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:10,879 Speaker 1: you so much for coming on the show today. We 523 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:20,239 Speaker 1: really enjoyed it. Thank you, Thank you. What goes up. 524 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find 525 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever 526 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 527 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 1: the time to rate interview the show. Some more listeners 528 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 1: can find us and you can find us on Twitter, 529 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: follow me at at, Sarah ponzat, Mike Is at Rea Anonymous. 530 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: Our guest, Gina Martin Adams is at Gina Martin Adams, 531 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 1: and Emily Barrett is at Not That ECB. What Goes 532 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: Up is produced by tofor Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg 533 00:28:48,080 --> 00:29:04,960 Speaker 1: Podcast is Francesca Levi. See you next time. The f