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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you came with us.
Speaker 1: We didn't think this would be the story that we'd
Speaker 1: be telling today. So much for the relief rally on
Speaker 1: Wall Street because they actually got it done. This is
Speaker 1: the moment all but one expert we talk to on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg said would never happen on this vote the tree
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five then age are ninety one two
Speaker 1: thirds being in the affirmative. The rules are suspended. The
Speaker 1: bill has.
Speaker 3: Passed, and with that objection, the motion to reconsider.
Speaker 1: Is laid on the table. How about it? Three thirty
Speaker 1: five to ninety one. That was the House late Saturday.
Speaker 1: Next door the Senate followed up very quickly and with
Speaker 1: something like I believe thirty two minutes to spare. President
Speaker 1: Biden signed it into law. Only one person told us
Speaker 1: it would happen like this, and we're going to have
Speaker 1: time to talk about motions to vacate Ukraine funding, backroom
Speaker 1: deals and so on. But listen to Sarah Chamberlain on
Speaker 1: the twenty sixth of September on Bloomberg.
Speaker 4: I do not think we're going to have a government shutdown.
Speaker 1: You don't think.
Speaker 4: I think what the Senate put out today is going
Speaker 4: to be helpful. I think the Republicans would negotiate to
Speaker 4: try to get as close to that as possible. And
Speaker 4: I think the last possible minute we are going to
Speaker 4: we're going to see a.
Speaker 1: Lot that was on balance of power last week, myself
Speaker 1: and Anne Marie hor Duran. By the way, the reason
Speaker 1: why Sarah knows this is because she's in the room
Speaker 1: for these negotiations. The president and CEO of the Republican
Speaker 1: Main Street Partnership joins us right now. Sarah, you were correct.
Speaker 1: A lot of folks did not see this coming. How
Speaker 1: did Kevin McCarthy pull this out?
Speaker 5: Kevin McCarthy pulled it out with a lot of help
Speaker 5: from the Republican Man Street Partnership members. Absolutely, the Republicans
Speaker 5: wanted to do this as a straight up Republican vote.
Speaker 5: They tried, they did their best. There were just some
Speaker 5: absolute holdouts. So the members of Main Street, there's seventeen
Speaker 5: of them that live in Biden's districts. Biden won their
Speaker 5: districts over overwhelmingly, so they had to make a deal.
Speaker 5: And they had gone to Kevin and said we're gonna
Speaker 5: have to deal, and he at the last moment he
Speaker 5: did it. I was I'm sorry he did it. I'm
Speaker 5: sorry he was forced to do it his own party.
Speaker 5: But I think for the American people, it's absolutely the
Speaker 5: right thing to do.
Speaker 1: Of course, it did take Democratic votes. That's why Matt
Speaker 1: Gates is threatening a motion to vacate. And that shouldn't
Speaker 1: come as a surprise to anyone. Before I ask you
Speaker 1: about that, are you allowing yourself a moment here, Sarah,
Speaker 1: A little I told you, So.
Speaker 5: No, I've just kind of moved on to the next thing.
Speaker 5: I am unique because I am the CEO of an
Speaker 5: organization that has ninety members versus a pundit who talks
Speaker 5: to people and tries to gather information. I do sit
Speaker 5: in the room with the members, so I do. I
Speaker 5: kind of have an inside information. So I'm not really
Speaker 5: as good. It's just I have different insights.
Speaker 1: Well, that's right, because you're bringing us behind the scenes here,
Speaker 1: what's the conversation about Ukraine? Because Matt Gates went to
Speaker 1: the floor today and I should let you hear his
Speaker 1: actual words. This idea of a motion to vacate, he says,
Speaker 1: will hinge on what Republicans learn about a so called
Speaker 1: secret deal on Ukraine. Here he is a short time
Speaker 1: ago on the floor of the House.
Speaker 6: So mister Speaker, just tell us, just tell us what
Speaker 6: was in the secret Ukraine side deal. What commitments were
Speaker 6: made to President Biden to continue the spending of President
Speaker 6: Biden in exchange for doing things for President Biden. It
Speaker 6: is becoming increasingly clear who the Speaker of the House
Speaker 6: already works for. And it's not the Republican Conference.
Speaker 1: He says, it's Joe Biden. Sarah Chamberlain, do you know
Speaker 1: anything about a secret deal on Ukraine?
Speaker 5: I do not, and ads are I probably would know
Speaker 5: it if it existed. I just really think that's Matt
Speaker 5: Gates's talking, trying to justify potentially recalling Speaker McCarthy. But
Speaker 5: I have no knowledge of a secret deal at all.
Speaker 1: That's important here because the matter of Ukraine will need
Speaker 1: to be dealt with, and so will this mutiny. I
Speaker 1: don't know how many folks, how many members Matt Gates
Speaker 1: has on his side here, but he has made clear
Speaker 1: he will file the motion to vacate this week. Sarah,
Speaker 1: will the Speaker survive?
Speaker 5: So right now I believe you will. I absolutely do
Speaker 5: think you will. I have to be honest with you.
Speaker 5: I have not got an update yet on how many
Speaker 5: members will be going with Matt Gates. The thought is
Speaker 5: there's between five to seven. So if that is all
Speaker 5: there are, then Speaker McCarthy should survive. But I really
Speaker 5: want to emphasize I don't know who wants this job.
Speaker 5: I mean, it is probably the worst job in DC,
Speaker 5: if not one of the worst in the country. So
Speaker 5: if he does, if mac Gates does succeed in recalling
Speaker 5: speaker McCarthy, who is going to step in and take
Speaker 5: this place. The country needs a speaker, The country needs
Speaker 5: to get things done. Your earlier segment talked about potential recession.
Speaker 5: We have to have the government functioning if the United
Speaker 5: States is going into a recession.
Speaker 1: So you have it from Sarah Chamberlain, President's CEO of
Speaker 1: the Republican Main Street Partnership. Thank you for guiding us
Speaker 1: in the right direction. Sarah, We're lucky to have you
Speaker 1: and I appreciate your insights today. As Sarah refers, there's
Speaker 1: a very important story that's on the terminal that you
Speaker 1: can find yourself here. But we're going to talk about
Speaker 1: it with Mark Zandi. Why a US recession is still
Speaker 1: more likely than a soft landing. Remember we have spoken
Speaker 1: with our analysts at Bee at Bloomberg Economics, including Anna Wong,
Speaker 1: who set a government shut down, a strike in Detroit,
Speaker 1: both of which at the time looked inevitable. One hundred
Speaker 1: dollars barrel oil and the resumption of student loan payments
Speaker 1: all come together to form a recession in this country
Speaker 1: just as we're flying into a presidential election cycle. Gladness say,
Speaker 1: Mark is with us now. The chief economists at Moody's Analytics.
Speaker 1: Mark Zandy, many thanks for joining. It's good to see you. Mark.
Speaker 1: We avoided a shutdown. How about we start with the
Speaker 1: positive here, But there's no sense of what happens after
Speaker 1: November seventeenth. We were told that this would have corrosive
Speaker 1: effects on the economy. How worried about this? Are you
Speaker 1: still much less so?
Speaker 7: Joe?
Speaker 8: I think, you know, November mid November, I'd be pretty
Speaker 8: surprised at this point at the if lawmakers shut the
Speaker 8: government down. I mean, I think they realized that it's
Speaker 8: not good economics, but more importantly, it's really bad politics.
Speaker 8: And this is right before Thanksgiving and the holidays. I
Speaker 8: just don't see it. I suspect at this point they're
Speaker 8: going to come together and kind of sign on a
Speaker 8: deal that is very close to what they agree to
Speaker 8: back when they passed legislation to end the debt limit
Speaker 8: to drama. So you know, you know, obviously things go
Speaker 8: different directions heres as we saw this weekend. But I'm
Speaker 8: feeling pretty good they were going to avoid a shutdown
Speaker 8: at this point.
Speaker 1: Well, that's great to hear. I just listed off a
Speaker 1: bunch of other potential headwinds. For our economy though, And
Speaker 1: I wonder where your your head is on the soft
Speaker 1: landing idea. You've been allowing for this possibility since long
Speaker 1: before the markets came around on this. Now folks are
Speaker 1: feeling a little more downbeat, and the resumption of student
Speaker 1: loan payments is a big part of that. Marks something
Speaker 1: we haven't talked enough about.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I Matt, the producer sent me the piece. I
Speaker 8: hadn't seen it before, right before this conversation. Took a
Speaker 8: look overly pessimistic in my view. You know, yeah, those
Speaker 8: are it's a scenario. Yeah, sure, I mean recession ods
Speaker 8: are high, and for the reasons that the analysis gave.
Speaker 8: I mean, you know, obviously we've got the student loan
Speaker 8: payments kicking back in the UAW strike, We've got higher
Speaker 8: interest rates, higher oil prices, but they all kind of
Speaker 8: small potatoes, Joe, and the grand scheme of things, I mean,
Speaker 8: they add up to really something. So Q four is
Speaker 8: going to be soawt, but Q three is gagbusters. I
Speaker 8: mean I think GDP he's probably going to commit four
Speaker 8: or five percent, So you know, okay, and the economy's
Speaker 8: creating a boatloaded jobs. Businesses don't want to lay off.
Speaker 8: They desperately don't want to do that because you know,
Speaker 8: they know on the other side of whatever this is
Speaker 8: we're experience, they're going to have problems with the holding
Speaker 8: on the labor and consumers are hanging tough. I mean,
Speaker 8: they're spending and based on the GDP revisions, I won't
Speaker 8: go down into the details, but those revisions were very positive.
Speaker 8: They suggest that consumers have a lot more extra cash
Speaker 8: than we thought they did. So yeah, I mean, you know,
Speaker 8: recessions are real risk. You know, you look at history.
Speaker 8: If you live in a world of high inflation and
Speaker 8: a FED on the war path, you invariably end up
Speaker 8: in recession. So that's not a you know, an unreasonable forecast,
Speaker 8: but it's an unlikely one.
Speaker 1: How about that. So well, listen, your optimism is is well,
Speaker 1: it's relative optimism, well received.
Speaker 8: It gets some pretty bleak forecast.
Speaker 1: I am, of course, I am, But a lot of
Speaker 1: folks think that a lot of folks have have counted
Speaker 1: out the con and you're not one of them. Mark.
Speaker 1: That's really what we're talking about here.
Speaker 8: I mean why, I mean, the consumer is like rock solid,
Speaker 8: I mean, real consumer spending growth, the whole shooting match
Speaker 8: you know, everything is two percent ish on the nose,
Speaker 8: which is like exactly what you want, right, That's enough
Speaker 8: to keep the economy moving forward out without out of recession,
Speaker 8: but not so strong that it generates inflationary pressures. I mean,
Speaker 8: it's like, you know, you couldn't, I couldn't draw it
Speaker 8: on a piece of paper better than it's happening now.
Speaker 8: And all the fundamentals look good, you know, jobs, unemployment,
Speaker 8: real wages are a rising, a lot of excess saving
Speaker 8: that service is low. Yeah, I mean, low income households
Speaker 8: are under pressure, no doubt about it. But middle income,
Speaker 8: high income households, their balance she's never been stronger. Stock
Speaker 8: prices are down, housing values are flat, but people are
Speaker 8: still a lot wealthier than they were when they're a
Speaker 8: lot wealthier than they were when the pandemic hit just
Speaker 8: a few years ago. So I'm I'm hard pressed. You know,
Speaker 8: why would the consumer pack it in unless something happened now,
Speaker 8: thing's happened, right, There could be another shock. Something we're
Speaker 8: not you know that, you know, we're not for casting
Speaker 8: at this point, but so it's it's not again an
Speaker 8: unreasonable concern, but it's seems much more likely than not
Speaker 8: the consumer is going to hang in.
Speaker 1: There is the FED done, I think.
Speaker 8: So, I hope so, I mean, I don't think they
Speaker 8: need to raise races any further. I mean, inflation, sticking
Speaker 8: to script, is come in write in, you know, as
Speaker 8: the the shocks from the pandemic and Russian war fade,
Speaker 8: and they're increasingly the rearview mirror those. Inflation is moderating
Speaker 8: as as you would expect, and you know it's going
Speaker 8: to take another six to twelve eighteen months to get
Speaker 8: it back to target. But you know, I think that
Speaker 8: the interest rates where they are today is sufficient to
Speaker 8: accomplish that. So and then, as I said at Q four,
Speaker 8: growth is going to be soft for all the reasons
Speaker 8: that the piece you know that you mentioned put forward.
Speaker 8: So it is going to be soft. So I think
Speaker 8: that'll be enough evidence less inflation to headed to target
Speaker 8: and slow growing economy be sufficient to forestall, you know,
Speaker 8: further rate hikes. I do think the FED has set
Speaker 8: us up for you know, much slower rate cuts when
Speaker 8: they start cutting late next year going into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 8: But and that's one reason why long term rates are up,
Speaker 8: you know, over the last couple three weeks. But so
Speaker 8: I don't think they'll be cutting quickly, but I think
Speaker 8: that they're probably in the rate hikes are over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the higher for longer story gets interesting here. You're
Speaker 1: banking on a cut by the end of the year,
Speaker 1: I presume, Mark. What does that mean for mortgage rates?
Speaker 1: Have they peaked?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I think so.
Speaker 8: I mean we're said, what seven point six seven seven
Speaker 8: point seven on a three year fixed that would be
Speaker 8: you know, consistent, you know, obviously with a four and
Speaker 8: a half percent ten year yield and a three innerd
Speaker 8: basis point three percentage point spread, which is very wide
Speaker 8: by historical standards for understandable reasons. So if I you know,
Speaker 8: if I'm right about the FED in growth, I think
Speaker 8: tenure treasure yields are probably close to a peak. And
Speaker 8: if they're at a peak, I think mortgage rates are
Speaker 8: at a peak. Again, I don't think rates are going
Speaker 8: to come in fast though, We're going to be you know,
Speaker 8: higher rates for a long longer here, which means we
Speaker 8: will see home sales are already dead in the water anyway.
Speaker 8: This run up and rates isn't going to do any
Speaker 8: more damage there, but it could probably will result in
Speaker 8: some house price declients. Here, so it's been expecting that
Speaker 8: for quite some time. So I do think we'll see,
Speaker 8: you know, some further weakness in housing. But hey, Joe,
Speaker 8: you know, the housing market, the single family housing market
Speaker 8: is the single most interest rate sensitive sector of the
Speaker 8: economy bar none. Yeah, and you know, it has held
Speaker 8: up pretty well. Surprising about in fact, housing in aggregate
Speaker 8: if you consider, you know, multi family activity has actually
Speaker 8: been effectively flat because the multi family market's been strong
Speaker 8: up to this point in time and offset the weakness
Speaker 8: and single family. So net net housing has been basically
Speaker 8: neutral with respect to the economy, when if you're really
Speaker 8: going to go into recession, you'd expect housing to be
Speaker 8: you know, sinking housing and aggregate sinking you know, into
Speaker 8: the into the black hole.
Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, I never had to buy a house in
Speaker 1: the eighties, but I'll wear the seventies for that man.
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you what, that seven sixth rate that
Speaker 1: you point out was the exact to the letter, the
Speaker 1: exact mortgage rate that we had the first time we
Speaker 1: bought a home in our family, and we thought it
Speaker 1: was a steal because we had heard about my god
Speaker 1: when you were growing up, they were eighteen percent. I
Speaker 1: always feel better when I talk to Mark Zandy. I
Speaker 1: hope everyone does, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Thank
Speaker 1: you Mark, as always for sharing insights. We've got a
Speaker 1: lot to talk about with our panel, not just the economy,
Speaker 1: but shut down politics and what the heck happens after
Speaker 1: November seventeenth. Does Kevin McCarthy know and will he still
Speaker 1: be speaker? All that's ahead with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano.
Speaker 1: I'm the fastest show in politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.
Speaker 1: Now that we've established the government did not shut down
Speaker 1: over the weekend, we look to the fallout here. Not
Speaker 1: only what will happen after November seventeenth, that's how long
Speaker 1: this plan goes for, but what happens to the Speaker
Speaker 1: of the House. Congressman Matt Gates made very clear on
Speaker 1: Sunday morning, following the vote on this continuing resolution that
Speaker 1: he was going for it, the motion to vacate.
Speaker 6: I do intend to file a motion to vacate against
Speaker 6: Speaker McCarthy this week. I think we need to strip
Speaker 6: off the band aid. I think we need to move
Speaker 6: on with new leadership that can be trustworthy.
Speaker 1: That was on ABC next Door on CBS, the Speaker
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy says, once again, bring it on.
Speaker 7: He's more interested in securing TV interviews than doing something.
Speaker 7: He wanted to push us into a shutdown, even threatening
Speaker 7: his own district with all the military people there who
Speaker 7: would not be paid, only because he will wants to
Speaker 7: take this motion, So be it. Bring it on, Let's
Speaker 7: get over with it and let's start governing.
Speaker 1: Speaking of TV interviews, we're going to be talking with
Speaker 1: Congressman Matt Gates later on today here on Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg TV when we get to Balance a Power,
Speaker 1: a special show we have lined up from the Hill
Speaker 1: and we'll be talking to a lot of the folks
Speaker 1: here who are making the decisions around this. And brought
Speaker 1: us to this point following weeks of on again, off again, negotiations.
Speaker 1: Fast forward to today, Matt Gates on the floor of
Speaker 1: the House talking about a secret deal to fund Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and he says when he learns more about that deal,
Speaker 1: he'll have a better sense of who might vote for
Speaker 1: this motion to vacate.
Speaker 6: Members of the Republican Party might vote differently on a
Speaker 6: motion to vacate if they heard what the speaker had
Speaker 6: to share with us about his secret side deal with
Speaker 6: Joe Biden on Ukraine. I'll be listening, Stay tuned.
Speaker 1: Stay tuned. Indeed. As we assembled our panel, Genie Schanzano
Speaker 1: and Rick Davis joined Bloomberg Politics contributors off a wild weekend. Rick,
Speaker 1: I'll start with you on secret deals here, whether you
Speaker 1: think that's true or not. Sarah Chamberlain from Main Street
Speaker 1: Partnership told us earlier she's heard nothing about this, and
Speaker 1: maybe I should fill in a couple of blanks. It's
Speaker 1: important here. This legislation that passed over the weekend includes
Speaker 1: money for disaster relief sixteen billion dollars, but no aid
Speaker 1: for Ukraine. That's expected to come up at a later
Speaker 1: time here in the appropriations process. Rick, what's Matt Gates
Speaker 1: talking about?
Speaker 9: Yeah, look, I mean it's kind of hard to tell
Speaker 9: what he thinks is secret. The President has requested funding
Speaker 9: for the Ukraine. The Senate has included it in the
Speaker 9: various versions of the stopgap bill that they were promoting.
Speaker 9: Everyone has spoken out on this, and so to think
Speaker 9: that there's somehow, some hidden deal that's going to result
Speaker 9: in a vote in the House. You're going to get
Speaker 9: a vote in the House, Matt, and it's going to
Speaker 9: require you to get on the record for being either
Speaker 9: putin or for Ukraine. And I don't understand what he
Speaker 9: thinks might be secret. Absolutely, there's going to be a
Speaker 9: vote on Ukraine. Aid I would point out that Mike Quigley,
Speaker 9: the one Democrat that voted against the Continued Resolution, did
Speaker 9: so because there was no funding for the Ukraine in
Speaker 9: that bill, so that everyone there expects it to happen.
Speaker 9: I don't understand what Gates thinks is not.
Speaker 1: Going to happen. Well, And there's going to be apparently
Speaker 1: a vote on a motion to vacate as well here, Genie,
Speaker 1: probably a lot sooner than anyone gets to vote on Ukraine.
Speaker 1: The question remains, will Democrats take part in this exercise
Speaker 1: to either protect Speaker McCarthy or help to oust him.
Speaker 1: Which do you think it'll be. Yeah, I mean we.
Speaker 3: Think there's going to be a motion to vakate. Gates
Speaker 3: was saying all weekend there would be an immediate motion
Speaker 3: to vkate. Then he goes on the floor today and
Speaker 3: no motion to vacate. So we're all sort of in
Speaker 3: waiting mode for this historic motion to vacate, if and
Speaker 3: when it ever happens. And you're right, it's gonna be
Speaker 3: in the Democrats' hands what they decide to do, and
Speaker 3: it is unclear at this point what they will decide.
Speaker 3: We heard people like Alexandria Cosio Cortes this weekend saying
Speaker 3: she would like to vote against Kevin McCarthy. We've heard
Speaker 3: from moderate Democrats that they are more inclined to, you know,
Speaker 3: sort of stop and help end the chaos by keeping
Speaker 3: him there. But it's really gonna come down to what Hakem,
Speaker 3: Jeffries and the leadership decide. And one interesting thing is
Speaker 3: Nancy Pelosi has said she would not vote to save McCarthy,
Speaker 3: but she will follow the leadership, so you know, but
Speaker 3: her advice to Jeffrey seems to be don't save them,
Speaker 3: and Democrats are not happy with Kevin McCarthy, not only
Speaker 3: the vote to impeach or the impeachment inquiry that he started,
Speaker 3: but going back to Donald Trump after January sixth, breaking
Speaker 3: his deal with Joe Biden, and then even on Saturday
Speaker 3: jamming that bill through without giving them time to read
Speaker 3: through it. All of those things make them feel they
Speaker 3: can't trust him, and they may not want to work
Speaker 3: with him unless he's willing to strike a deal and
Speaker 3: make some concessions. But of course that's going to cost
Speaker 3: him support amongst Republicans. So it's really unclear at this
Speaker 3: point how he survives, except he's going to have to
Speaker 3: depend on Democrats to do that well.
Speaker 1: And that's the point that Matt Gates was making yesterday.
Speaker 1: I find this really interesting. In his Sunday Shows interviews Rick,
Speaker 1: it was less about firing Kevin McCarthy and more about
Speaker 1: exposing him as one sympathetic to Democrats. Listen to how
Speaker 1: he put.
Speaker 6: This, I actually think Democrats are going to bail out
Speaker 6: Kevin McCarthy. So this is an exercise to show the
Speaker 6: American people who really governs you and how that governing occurs.
Speaker 6: So I'm on a mission to change it. Where we're
Speaker 6: evaluating these bills independently. Kevin McCarthy is off making a
Speaker 6: secret deal on Ukraine as he's baiting Republicans to vote
Speaker 6: for a continuing resolution that doesn't include Ukraine.
Speaker 1: All right, Rick, that was on ABC. He doesn't actually
Speaker 1: expect to fire Kevin McCarthy. That means that Republican votes
Speaker 1: are not there or Democrats are, which is it.
Speaker 9: Well, his trading range for Republicans who are willing to
Speaker 9: kick out Kevin McCarthy is probably twenty to thirty votes, right,
Speaker 9: So it's not a lot of people that he needs
Speaker 9: to run around and talk to to see whether or
Speaker 9: not they're willing to exercise a emotion of vacate. So
Speaker 9: he's doing that right now. That's the reason he hasn't
Speaker 9: announced it yet, is he's talking to those twenty or
Speaker 9: thirty members saying, are you with me? Are you ready
Speaker 9: to storm the blockade? And my guess is he's getting
Speaker 9: a lot of no's because in the sort of cooler
Speaker 9: heads of the moment, I think most of these guys
Speaker 9: who have been given Kevin a hard time realize he's
Speaker 9: probably sitting at two hundred votes for a speaker no
Speaker 9: matter what happens.
Speaker 1: So of motion to vacate.
Speaker 9: So it's highly unlikely that there anything's in a result
Speaker 9: other than upsetting Kevin McCarthy. And regardless of whether he
Speaker 9: uses Democratic votes or not, he'll still he'll be Speaker,
Speaker 9: He'll decide what committees you're on. He's going to decide
Speaker 9: what legislation you get to pass. So you know this,
Speaker 9: this is a gut check for those guys. I would
Speaker 9: remind everybody that they did not give Kevin McCarthy any choice.
Speaker 9: They said no three times in a row in the
Speaker 9: week before leading up to the deadline for funding to
Speaker 9: every option they claimed to be four And so the
Speaker 9: same group that was tying him up in knots are
Speaker 9: now saying that he can't do business with the Democrats,
Speaker 9: which means that we don't want to do any business
Speaker 9: in the House of Representatives. I think the long ball
Speaker 9: here is Kevin McCarthy banking on getting stuff done. Whether
Speaker 9: he gets it with Democrats or not, is going to
Speaker 9: be as Genie said, up to leadership. But they've now
Speaker 9: shown a big propensity to willingness to support him on
Speaker 9: this budget bill. And by the way, we've got another
Speaker 9: funding crisis coming up, you know, in the middle of
Speaker 9: November and those conversations for being had now. But when
Speaker 9: I look at this vote, three hundred and thirty five
Speaker 9: to ninety one, I'd say that's a governing majority in
Speaker 9: anybody's business.
Speaker 1: Does it also mean that we won't shut down on
Speaker 1: November seventeenth, Genie, I don't know.
Speaker 3: If you should bank on that. You might want to
Speaker 3: have your Thanksgiving dinner figured out in case we do.
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew, you know, I hope we do not. I
Speaker 3: hope that the next several weeks they are able to
Speaker 3: reach deals. But it was unclear. We heard Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 3: talking about tying border security to funding for Ukraine. It
Speaker 3: was unclear how that was going to work and what
Speaker 3: kind of support he could get on something like that.
Speaker 3: We do no support for Ukraine as much as there is,
Speaker 3: or Ukraine funding, not support for Ukraine as much support
Speaker 3: as there is. It has gone down, and you even
Speaker 3: hear the Senate saying you're going to have to do
Speaker 3: a one big bill. You can't break it up. So
Speaker 3: it's unclear how he moves this forward. And the ninety
Speaker 3: he lost in his own cock on Saturday is telling.
Speaker 3: So he is going to have to rely on Democrats
Speaker 3: for a lot of this to move forward. But the
Speaker 3: best thing he's got going for him, to Sarah's earlier point,
Speaker 3: nobody else is in the offing for this job, nobody
Speaker 3: wants it, nobody's near to eighteen votes, and so who
Speaker 3: else would there be but Kevin McCarthy.
Speaker 1: All right, We've got a lot more to talk about
Speaker 1: with Jeanie and Rick as Gavin Newsom makes the appointment,
Speaker 1: The big announcement on who will replace Senator the late
Speaker 1: Senator Dianne Feinstein, just one of many other breaking stories
Speaker 1: that we're looking at. Here.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening.
Speaker 1: On demand wherever you get your podcasts. This was Gavin Newsom,
Speaker 1: of course, the Democratic governor of California, on the sixteenth
Speaker 1: of March twenty twenty one, asked about appointing a woman
Speaker 1: potentially for Senate here, of course, not knowing that we'd
Speaker 1: be talking about now the late Senator Dianne Feinstein, but
Speaker 1: should this opportunity arise? He was on MSNBC here, So, will.
Speaker 6: You nominate an African American woman to restore the seat
Speaker 6: that Kamala Harris is no longer in the United States Senate?
Speaker 6: And do you have a name in mind?
Speaker 1: I have multiple.
Speaker 2: We have multiple names in mind.
Speaker 1: And the answer is yes. The answer is yes, remembering,
Speaker 1: of course, that Kamala Harris had just left California to
Speaker 1: become Vice President. Fast forward to today and you have
Speaker 1: your answer. Indeed, it was yes. Gavin Knwso tweets I'm
Speaker 1: proud to announce California's new United States Senator, Lafonza Butler,
Speaker 1: who he writes, has spent her entire career fighting for
Speaker 1: women and girls and has been a fierce advocate for
Speaker 1: working people. As you'll read on the terminal, this is
Speaker 1: the ahead of Emily's list. The funds of Butler, longtime
Speaker 1: labor leader as well ran the SEIU. As we recall
Speaker 1: some of her stylings on the podium, this was just
Speaker 1: last year, twenty twenty two. The funds of bout that.
Speaker 2: Right now we know that right now is our time,
Speaker 2: and right now it is our turn.
Speaker 8: It's our turn.
Speaker 2: To build power like we've never built power before.
Speaker 3: Connecting the abortion rights movement, with the labor movement, with
Speaker 3: the climate movement, with.
Speaker 6: The Black Lives Matters.
Speaker 4: Movement, with the Native American protection movement.
Speaker 1: She will be the only black woman in the current
Speaker 1: US Senate. Let's reassemble the panel for their take. Genie Shanzino,
Speaker 1: was it the right call for Gavin Newsom?
Speaker 3: I think it was. You know, he put himself in
Speaker 3: a bit of a buying twenty one when he made
Speaker 3: that promise. He was under pressure because of his replacement
Speaker 3: of Kamala Harris, and you know, he was facing three
Speaker 3: really beloved members of the House who are now in
Speaker 3: the race. He didn't want to tip those scales, and
Speaker 3: so to go with Butler was a smart choice. To
Speaker 3: do it quickly, to give the Democrats in the Senate
Speaker 3: a governing majority, a smart choice. And also, I think
Speaker 3: importantly generationally, you know, Barbara Lee, certainly not happy today,
Speaker 3: was pushing for this appointment, didn't get it. But like
Speaker 3: so many Americans, people in California want a new generation
Speaker 3: of leader, and Butler does that. You know, she's in
Speaker 3: her fifties, she's energetic, she's young, she has a strong
Speaker 3: liberal record for all those things you just talked about.
Speaker 3: So it was a good move, and it allowed Newsom
Speaker 3: to keep his promise. I think it's really important that
Speaker 3: Butler did not get talked into making a deal. She'll
Speaker 3: be a caretaker, so she could run if she decides to.
Speaker 3: I think the caughtoff would be December eighth. We'll have
Speaker 3: to watch and see if she's the fourth person in
Speaker 3: this race going in then as an incumbent senator, which
Speaker 3: does give her some advantage.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple of interesting things here, Rick. She did
Speaker 1: not pledge to be a caretaker. She may well run
Speaker 1: for this seat. We'll find out about that. But she
Speaker 1: lives in the Greater Washington area. I believe Silver Spring, Maryland.
Speaker 1: Is that a problem?
Speaker 9: No, I think they call it a carpetbagger. She's only
Speaker 9: a carpetbagger if she runs for office. Right now, she's
Speaker 9: just a good appointment, no guarantee that she'll run. K
Speaker 9: Newsom wasn't guaranteeing that she wouldn't. And I think it's
Speaker 9: kind of an interesting pick in that regard because there's
Speaker 9: obviously a big cast of characters on the Democratic side
Speaker 9: who want that nomination. You know, Adam shiff Barbaraly, Katie Porter.
Speaker 9: They've all been raising a lot of money and they're
Speaker 9: ready to roll and introduce somebody new to the equation.
Speaker 9: I think, really destabilize it. So I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 9: if she does become a caretaker. Kind of makes sense
Speaker 9: to bring someone from out of state who doesn't have
Speaker 9: a political lineage in California.
Speaker 1: What do you make of this genie? And what does
Speaker 1: Adam Shift do when there's a call to have a
Speaker 1: woman of color in this seat? So many people were
Speaker 1: looking at him for a glide path to victory. How
Speaker 1: about now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, I think Shift definitely will
Speaker 3: stay in the race. As we look at the polls, now,
Speaker 3: you know, we do see that Shift and Porter are
Speaker 3: in the lead. Again, it's still early. Barbara Lee is behind.
Speaker 3: She's also behind when it comes to fundraising, we understand.
Speaker 3: So Porter and Shift really have the advantage from that perspective.
Speaker 3: But to your point, there is a lot of there
Speaker 3: are a lot of people in California who would like
Speaker 3: to see an African American woman in that seat, and
Speaker 3: that does vode better for somebody like Lee or Butler
Speaker 3: if she does decide to enter this race. And you know,
Speaker 3: those are concerns that Schiff has to keep in mind.
Speaker 3: That said, he's a very popular member of the House
Speaker 3: delegation from California, and I think given his polling and fundraising,
Speaker 3: he stays in this race. It's an open primary in California.
Speaker 3: That's another interesting twist on this that's going to make
Speaker 3: it a race to watch, so something to really see
Speaker 3: out there, and of course, whoever wins can if they
Speaker 3: serve the people well, be there thirty forty years depending
Speaker 3: on their age, and if they're able to you know,
Speaker 3: really serve the constituents well and get re elected. That's
Speaker 3: what we've seen in California in the past, so a
Speaker 3: very very powerful seat.
Speaker 1: Is this shaping up to be the most expensive Senate
Speaker 1: race of the cycle? Rick, Yeah, it certainly could be.
Speaker 9: I mean, there are some other hut states that could
Speaker 9: generate a lot of expense, but California, definitely, with the
Speaker 9: crazy primary that got the general election, will be a
Speaker 9: walkthrough for whoever the Democratic nomination is because it's become
Speaker 9: a one party state. But that does raise the ante
Speaker 9: when it comes to winning that primary. So yeah, I
Speaker 9: would anticipate this being a hugely expensive state, especially as
Speaker 9: more and more people get into this primary, including potentially Butler.
Speaker 1: I guess it seems to me it's the story in
Speaker 1: the end, Genie that you can't deny is Gavin Newsom rising.
Speaker 1: We only have a minute left. He's going to be
Speaker 1: one of the president's chief surrogates if he's not drafted
Speaker 1: into a presidential election cycle. He's the man to debate
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis. Apparently now this he's spending every day on
Speaker 1: the front page lately.
Speaker 3: He really is, and you know, pooh poohing. I was
Speaker 3: at least these Republican debates. I'm really anxious to see
Speaker 3: the debate you just mentioned between DeSantis and Newsom. They're
Speaker 3: a new generation of potential leaders from both sides of
Speaker 3: the aisle.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of looking forward to that, Rick, how
Speaker 1: about you. This is one that we might actually want
Speaker 1: to sit down and watch them more closely.
Speaker 9: It's got to be better than these two previous Republican
Speaker 9: debates that have been real scheezers. So yeah, I'm looking
Speaker 9: forward to that too.
Speaker 1: With Rick Davis and Gdi Shanzano. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.
Speaker 1: We've got a lot more to follow today. The government
Speaker 1: is still open. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to The
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at
Speaker 1: one Eastern.
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.
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Speaker 1: Look who I found? Kaylee Lines is with us, and
Speaker 1: I've just got to stop down because we are real
Speaker 1: people here. Sometimes in the throes of this whole wonky
Speaker 1: thing about the government shutting down and what might come next.
Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett just said it. Did you see the images
Speaker 1: from the sphere last weekend?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 1: In Las Vegas?
Speaker 10: Pretty cool?
Speaker 1: Oh my god, we thought the outside of this thing
Speaker 1: was cool. Producer James saw it and was blown away,
Speaker 1: like me, this is like, so you two is in
Speaker 1: residence there, residence see there, And I guess that's why
Speaker 1: we haven't had a chance. It's like the first concert there,
Speaker 1: so yeah, can we do a remote live remote?
Speaker 10: Oh you're a great idea, but the show right on
Speaker 10: the stage the managers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got to see this sometimes. All right, So
Speaker 1: Vegas bound, when's the Nevada Caucus again find out James, Well,
Speaker 1: we've got a few things to talk about here. We
Speaker 1: thought we'd be doing a shutdown show today. We figured
Speaker 1: we'd be two days into a shutdown. The government is
Speaker 1: still open. YEP. No one's still exactly sure how that'll
Speaker 1: happen so fast to the point where the President, with
Speaker 1: I believe thirty two minutes left, managed to put pen
Speaker 1: to paper and sign this thing in a law.
Speaker 10: A buzzer beater, I believe that is what they can show. Yes,
Speaker 10: and yeah, we're not shut down. We will stay that
Speaker 10: way until November seventeenth, which is maybe when we do
Speaker 10: this entire song and dance over again. My questions are,
Speaker 10: between now and the seventeenth of November, will we see
Speaker 10: actually something bipartisan coming together in terms of those twelve
Speaker 10: appropriation bills they're still going to need to be reconciled
Speaker 10: between the House and the Senate. And also by that time,
Speaker 10: will Kevin McCarthy still be Speaker.
Speaker 1: Of the House. All huge questions, did we simply prolong
Speaker 1: the shutdown? And will Kevin McCarthy have the gavel to
Speaker 1: find out? Both of those remain unanswered. Matt Gates did
Speaker 1: speak from the floor earlier today, but no motion. As
Speaker 1: I said earlier, here's how he put this. It's about
Speaker 1: a secret deal, a secret Ukraine deal. They want to
Speaker 1: find out about that before they vote. He has questions,
Speaker 1: so I got that about right here.
Speaker 6: He is members of the Republican Party might vote differently
Speaker 6: on a motion to vacate if they heard what the
Speaker 6: Speaker had to share with us about his secret side
Speaker 6: deal with Joe Biden on Ukraine. I'll be listening, stay tuned.
Speaker 1: I still don't get what the secret side deal is though,
Speaker 1: because they didn't get money for Ukraine, right.
Speaker 10: I think what he's alleging is that there was some
Speaker 10: agreement that if they passed a continuing resolution, they'll come
Speaker 10: back around.
Speaker 1: With the Ukraine vote, right, which has not yet happened, and.
Speaker 10: The administration still wants.
Speaker 1: It absolutely yes, and there is I think majority support
Speaker 1: for it, which is interesting here, no such deal. According
Speaker 1: to Sarah Chamberlain we spoke with about an hour ago
Speaker 1: Republican Main Street Partnership. She's the president, she was the
Speaker 1: only one who predicted this. Here she is on the
Speaker 1: twenty sixth of September, with this unbalance of power. Sarah
Speaker 1: Chamberlain on whether the government would shut down or not.
Speaker 4: I do not think we're going to have a government shutdown.
Speaker 5: You don't think we're not government down.
Speaker 4: I think what the Senate put out today is going
Speaker 4: to be helpful. I think the Republicans would negotiate to
Speaker 4: try to get as close to that as possible. And
Speaker 4: I think the last possible minute we are going to
Speaker 4: we're going to sum.
Speaker 1: Last That's exactly how it went. Called it, That's exactly
Speaker 1: how it went.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh, I wonder if Mick saw that coming. We've been
Speaker 1: talking to Mick mulvaney about this thing because we knew
Speaker 1: it was weeks in the making. YEP, A slow motion
Speaker 1: train wreck is what it felt like. Mick mulvaaney, what
Speaker 1: do you think about this last minute turn here?
Speaker 11: No, you're being the mean to be Joe. You know,
Speaker 11: I didn't see that one. I was with everybody else
Speaker 11: that was going to shut down over the weekend.
Speaker 1: So well, yeah, but I mean, what, so you woke
Speaker 1: up Saturday though, and that something was in the water.
Speaker 1: What changed?
Speaker 11: I don't know. I got the impression because I was
Speaker 11: there all last week that this really was last minute,
Speaker 11: that something happened at the last minute that changed Kevin's
Speaker 11: mind and decided this was a better way to go forward.
Speaker 11: I don't think it was the Senate passing a deal.
Speaker 11: I thought he would really go into shutdown for a
Speaker 11: couple of days. Peven might have shut down of less
Speaker 11: than fourteen days is really politically it hurts, but there's
Speaker 11: no real application in the real world because everybody gets paid.
Speaker 11: Right If people say, well, you don't get paid to
Speaker 11: go to work, you know, did you guys get paid today?
Speaker 11: Probably not. You're working today doesn't mean you're not. You're
Speaker 11: working for no pay. You're not gonna get paid to
Speaker 11: your next pay here. So I thought there'd be a
Speaker 11: short period of shutdown that is wrong. Be curious to
Speaker 11: see if this was just delaying the inevitable, if there's
Speaker 11: some larger deals cooking. I might have back to DC
Speaker 11: right now to see if I can find out.
Speaker 10: Well, we look forward to hearing what you find out.
Speaker 10: But we had been talking about this. Mick is kind
Speaker 10: of a binary choice for Speaker McCarthy. Either he allows
Speaker 10: the government to shut down or he doesn't. He acts
Speaker 10: to avert it and then risks his job. And aren't
Speaker 10: we seeing the latter play out now? As a result
Speaker 10: of his actions this weekend.
Speaker 11: You know, starting to come around to the idea that
Speaker 11: maybe Matt Gates is crazy and that this is really
Speaker 11: about his This the fact you're talking about him. He
Speaker 11: was on all the news shows over the weekend, He's
Speaker 11: been on TV today. He says he's going to file emotion.
Speaker 11: Then he goes to the to the well today to
Speaker 11: speak and everybody covers it. It might just be a
Speaker 11: big PR stunt, and I maybe it is that the
Speaker 11: outcome of the shutdown and the r have nothing to
Speaker 11: do with whether not Matt Gates is going to file
Speaker 11: his motion. He might do it one way or the
Speaker 11: other regardless. So the real question is successful There's always
Speaker 11: folks seeking PR in Washington, d C. The question is
Speaker 11: are they, you know, are they successful accomplishing what they
Speaker 11: want to accomplish. I keep coming back to what you
Speaker 11: and I have talked about before, which is who else
Speaker 11: in their right mind wants the job? Who else could
Speaker 11: get the job? There's a short list of people. I
Speaker 11: think Matt Gates mentioned Tom Cole, who I'd like, but
Speaker 11: they said he's not a fiscal conservative, and Tom Emmer,
Speaker 11: who would never take the job. I mean, who in
Speaker 11: their right mind would want to take the speakership under
Speaker 11: these circumstances when they could be the next one to
Speaker 11: having to deal with Matt Gates on the Sunday Talk Show.
Speaker 11: So I think you saw that in Kevin's attitude last
Speaker 11: week about just bring the motion, you know, get the
Speaker 11: games over. I don't think that was his showing frustration.
Speaker 11: I think that was him doing the math and realizing
Speaker 11: that he's pretty secure because nobody else can win, and
Speaker 11: even if they could, they wouldn't want it.
Speaker 1: Well, Matt Gates said yesterday morning in one of his
Speaker 1: several Sunday morning interviews that it wasn't necessarily about firing
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, that he didn't necessarily have the votes because
Speaker 1: Democrats would come to his defense. Just to get into
Speaker 1: this more specifically, Mick, does he have the Republican votes?
Speaker 1: First question?
Speaker 5: Two?
Speaker 1: Separately, would Democrats otherwise come to his defense?
Speaker 11: And I was reading some comments this morning in the
Speaker 11: press and there were lines like I wouldn't follow Matt
Speaker 11: Gates into a steakhouse and this is all about just
Speaker 11: Matt Gates getting clicks and running for governor, And those
Speaker 11: were comments from Democrats. So if that's the case, look
Speaker 11: that the support for Kevin has always been strong within
Speaker 11: his party. Never Kevin group was between five and fifteen,
Speaker 11: depending upon what vote you were looking at and so forth.
Speaker 11: So that Kevin would support within the Republicans is critical.
Speaker 11: And Matt, I guess, is assuming that every Democrat would
Speaker 11: vote against him. I'm sure he's thought through the process
Speaker 11: here in mind. He said over the weekend he would
Speaker 11: file the motion this week. That's an important choice because
Speaker 11: politicians love to tell you the partial truth, of partial
Speaker 11: truth and nothing but the partial truth. And you could
Speaker 11: file this motion anytime and not call it up. So
Speaker 11: in theory, Matt could could file it today and not
Speaker 11: ask that it'd be heard, and that would satisfy his
Speaker 11: promise to file it this week. There's all sorts of
Speaker 11: wrinkles here. I think the bottom line is that he
Speaker 11: doesn't have the votes to get Karthy kicked out of office,
Speaker 11: and he knows it.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 10: It's going to come down to the issue of the Democrats, obviously.
Speaker 10: And I saw a tweet from of all people, Marjorie
Speaker 10: Taylor Green earlier. She posted a long threader. I guess
Speaker 10: it technically was an ex post. That's what we call
Speaker 10: them now. Mick and she was talking about how she
Speaker 10: thinks emotion to vacate is a mistake in part because
Speaker 10: it gives leverage to the Democrats. I'm paraphrasing her words here,
Speaker 10: but what do you think about that? Would a motion
Speaker 10: to vacate just give all the power to hawking Jefferies?
Speaker 11: Well, what I guess, because keep in mind what would happen.
Speaker 11: Let's walk through it. I know this is inside baseball,
Speaker 11: but that's what the show's about. Right, you file the motion,
Speaker 11: you bring up the motion, there's immediately a motion to table.
Speaker 11: That's not the substance of the motion. So you're not
Speaker 11: voting right then to vacate the chair. You're voting to
Speaker 11: delay indefinitely the vote to vacate the chair. That's a
Speaker 11: procedural motion. And every single Democrat could vote to either
Speaker 11: table the motion or simply abstain. Under both of those circumstances,
Speaker 11: the motion would fail and Kevin would still be the speaker,
Speaker 11: and the Democrats could look themselves in the eye and
Speaker 11: say they never voted for Kevin McCarthy for speaker. So
Speaker 11: you have to sort of walk through the process. And
Speaker 11: I think that's what Matt is Finally, realizing is that
Speaker 11: this has been great to sort of get a lot
Speaker 11: of attention, but if you want to kick the speaker out,
Speaker 11: it can be really, really hard to do it. Don't
Speaker 11: discount the fact that it's easy for the Democrats to say, Look,
Speaker 11: I don't like Kevin McCarthy, but I don't think I
Speaker 11: want to play to Matt Gates's hand and bring Congress
Speaker 11: grinding to a halt. When we've got a forty five
Speaker 11: day cr looming over our heads, why don't we deal
Speaker 11: with funding the government and maybe later we can talk
Speaker 11: about the speakership, But right now, the most important thing
Speaker 11: is funding the government going forward.
Speaker 1: Well, he says he's going to keep bringing them up.
Speaker 1: If it fails, Mick, he's going to do it again
Speaker 1: and again and again, maybe fifteen times, like we saw
Speaker 1: in the rounds of voting for Kevin McCarthy to become speaker.
Speaker 1: Does that create fatigue each time he files this motion potentially,
Speaker 1: or does it work to paralyze business in the House
Speaker 1: while we're trying to figure out how to avoid a shutdown?
Speaker 11: You know there's another possibility, which is it puts him
Speaker 11: at great risk. Remember, in the background of all of
Speaker 11: this is this ethics investigation that was started under the
Speaker 11: Democrat leadership. And I will be the first to tell
Speaker 11: you that ethics investigations are extremely politicized. As an extremely
Speaker 11: low bar, it's easy sort to weaponize ethics investigations. But
Speaker 11: there is an ethnics investigation going on right now against
Speaker 11: Matt Gates, now led by the Republicans. If that committee
Speaker 11: was to come back and find that in some type
Speaker 11: of violation of the ethics rules, that could lead to
Speaker 11: a motion to kick him out of Congress, it doesn't
Speaker 11: seem like he's making very many friends if those if
Speaker 11: there are Democrats who as saying that this is nothing
Speaker 11: more than a pr stunt and that they don't want
Speaker 11: to do anything to help Matt Gates, you can't imagine
Speaker 11: that the Republicans a very interested in keeping him around
Speaker 11: much either. So this could actually backfire on him if
Speaker 11: the ethics investigation goes badly, I could get ugly quick.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I am just anticipating more dramas if things weren't
Speaker 10: already dramatic enough. Just as we reflect on this saga
Speaker 10: between Matt Gates and Speaker Carthy that may or may
Speaker 10: not end this week. Because even if he's dealt a blow.
Speaker 10: He says, He'll continue to bring this up. How close
Speaker 10: we got to the edge in terms of the government
Speaker 10: shutting down? Is this house in order? Is this just
Speaker 10: literally what you and me and Joe are going to
Speaker 10: be talking about each and every week. A House of
Speaker 10: Representatives that is barely functioning. I mean, do you see
Speaker 10: this changing?
Speaker 11: It was always going to be tight anyway, Kayley, Right,
Speaker 11: because the margins are so tight. Keep in mind that, right, Democrats,
Speaker 11: only when Nancy Pelosi was in charge, she had a
Speaker 11: very small margin, and she was only ever able to
Speaker 11: pass things that had unanimous support because of it. Kevin
Speaker 11: is in the same boat. He's only ever going to
Speaker 11: be able to manage to pass anything that has unified
Speaker 11: Republican support because any handful of his members could shiftwreck
Speaker 11: a piece of legislation. So my guess is the same
Speaker 11: as it was in the previous Congress. The stuff that
Speaker 11: has to get past is going to get passed. That
Speaker 11: means the NBAA is going to get passed, the FAA
Speaker 11: reauthorization is going to get passed, and the government's going
Speaker 11: to get funded in one shape or another. I don't
Speaker 11: think this is going to be a time we're talking
Speaker 11: about far reaching legislation. We're talking about proactive type of things.
Speaker 11: This is going to be sort of waiting to the
Speaker 11: next election to see to see what the voters who
Speaker 11: the voter sent to Washington.
Speaker 1: Well, so what's your crystal ball, say Mick mulvany, November seventeenth,
Speaker 1: does the government close or open?
Speaker 11: You know what, I'm gun shy now because I got
Speaker 11: this wrong. I guess I take something.
Speaker 1: I don't blame you. I wouldn't answer any of my
Speaker 1: questions either.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I still think. I still think that it helps
Speaker 11: Kevin a little bit with the extreme right wing of
Speaker 11: his party. The freedom of cogguss people people like me. Okay,
Speaker 11: if you shut if the government goes into shutdown for
Speaker 11: a brief period of time, we don't like to hear
Speaker 11: things like if we don't do this, people aren't going
Speaker 11: to get paid. That's not factually accurate. If you close
Speaker 11: until for more than fourteen days, people don't get paid.
Speaker 11: But when you start using Democrat talking points to make
Speaker 11: your argument, that can rub the right wing of the
Speaker 11: party the wrong way. So I think, you know, Kevin
Speaker 11: lost more votes than he wanted to. He lost ninety
Speaker 11: votes in the cr Keep in mind, it was an
Speaker 11: easy note vote for a lot of people because I
Speaker 11: knew it was going to pass. So I think Kevin's
Speaker 11: got a little bit of work to do with his
Speaker 11: right wing of his party. But I think he's got
Speaker 11: forty five days to do it. I'm still putting the
Speaker 11: chances to shut down above seventy five percent in mid November.
Speaker 1: Whoa wow, And then we're going to roll into Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: and it'll be weeks right, And if.
Speaker 10: That happens, Yeah, Merry Christmas to all and to all
Speaker 10: a good night, Mack. I just had to smile to
Speaker 10: myself a little bit when he's talked about Freedom Caucus
Speaker 10: people being like you. Do you really think they're still
Speaker 10: like you? I heard a lot of talk on Capitol
Speaker 10: Hill about these conservatives not voting for conservative policies.
Speaker 2: Oh no, keep on.
Speaker 11: I think there's a new fact, there's a new faction
Speaker 11: now that the anarchist wing is different than the Freedom
Speaker 11: Coock ex fact, I don't even think Matt Gates is
Speaker 11: in the Freedom Caucus. Of course they don't publish the list,
Speaker 11: but you know, I saw Ken Buck the other day.
Speaker 11: Ken's a member of the Freedom Coccers at least he
Speaker 11: was when I was there. He's a very reasonable guy.
Speaker 5: What did he say?
Speaker 11: He said, Look, we need to pass these appropriation bills,
Speaker 11: at least vote on them. And if we can vote
Speaker 11: on all twelve, appropriation builds an I'll vote on a
Speaker 11: CR That's a reasonable Conservative position to take, and it's
Speaker 11: something that leadership can work with. Again, the Freedom Clarkers
Speaker 11: were designed to be the Conservatives that would play play
Speaker 11: hardball but could work with each other at everybody.
Speaker 1: At the end of the.
Speaker 11: Day, that group is still there, and that's the group
Speaker 11: I think that Kevin, we'll be able to build some
Speaker 11: build some capital with over the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: Unreal. At least we know we're still alive here. It
Speaker 1: reminds us that we're alive.
Speaker 5: Man.
Speaker 1: How about the sphere in Las Vegas? Are you going?
Speaker 1: Did you see what that looked like over the weekend?
Speaker 11: And I don't want you guys to talk it up
Speaker 11: too much because I'm trying to get tickets in November
Speaker 11: and that the sales out. I'm not even able to
Speaker 11: do that, So I don't think anybody should.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll meet you there. How about that? Mick
Speaker 1: mulvaney we won't tell anyone. Boy, It's only Monday, Kaylee,
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to say here. I know
Speaker 1: chaos Is that what you said? Chaos rains. I'm Joe
Speaker 1: Matthew with Kaylee Lions in Washington. This is Bloomberg. Thanks
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