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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us

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Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you came with us.

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Speaker 1: We didn't think this would be the story that we'd

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Speaker 1: be telling today. So much for the relief rally on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street because they actually got it done. This is

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Speaker 1: the moment all but one expert we talk to on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg said would never happen on this vote the tree

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five then age are ninety one two

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Speaker 1: thirds being in the affirmative. The rules are suspended. The

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Speaker 1: bill has.

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Speaker 3: Passed, and with that objection, the motion to reconsider.

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Speaker 1: Is laid on the table. How about it? Three thirty

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Speaker 1: five to ninety one. That was the House late Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Next door the Senate followed up very quickly and with

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Speaker 1: something like I believe thirty two minutes to spare. President

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Speaker 1: Biden signed it into law. Only one person told us

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Speaker 1: it would happen like this, and we're going to have

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Speaker 1: time to talk about motions to vacate Ukraine funding, backroom

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Speaker 1: deals and so on. But listen to Sarah Chamberlain on

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Speaker 1: the twenty sixth of September on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: I do not think we're going to have a government shutdown.

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Speaker 1: You don't think.

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Speaker 4: I think what the Senate put out today is going

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Speaker 4: to be helpful. I think the Republicans would negotiate to

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Speaker 4: try to get as close to that as possible. And

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Speaker 4: I think the last possible minute we are going to

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Speaker 4: we're going to see a.

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Speaker 1: Lot that was on balance of power last week, myself

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Speaker 1: and Anne Marie hor Duran. By the way, the reason

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Speaker 1: why Sarah knows this is because she's in the room

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Speaker 1: for these negotiations. The president and CEO of the Republican

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Speaker 1: Main Street Partnership joins us right now. Sarah, you were correct.

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Speaker 1: A lot of folks did not see this coming. How

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Speaker 1: did Kevin McCarthy pull this out?

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Speaker 5: Kevin McCarthy pulled it out with a lot of help

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Speaker 5: from the Republican Man Street Partnership members. Absolutely, the Republicans

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Speaker 5: wanted to do this as a straight up Republican vote.

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Speaker 5: They tried, they did their best. There were just some

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Speaker 5: absolute holdouts. So the members of Main Street, there's seventeen

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Speaker 5: of them that live in Biden's districts. Biden won their

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Speaker 5: districts over overwhelmingly, so they had to make a deal.

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Speaker 5: And they had gone to Kevin and said we're gonna

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Speaker 5: have to deal, and he at the last moment he

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Speaker 5: did it. I was I'm sorry he did it. I'm

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Speaker 5: sorry he was forced to do it his own party.

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Speaker 5: But I think for the American people, it's absolutely the

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Speaker 5: right thing to do.

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Speaker 1: Of course, it did take Democratic votes. That's why Matt

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Speaker 1: Gates is threatening a motion to vacate. And that shouldn't

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Speaker 1: come as a surprise to anyone. Before I ask you

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Speaker 1: about that, are you allowing yourself a moment here, Sarah,

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Speaker 1: A little I told you, So.

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Speaker 5: No, I've just kind of moved on to the next thing.

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Speaker 5: I am unique because I am the CEO of an

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Speaker 5: organization that has ninety members versus a pundit who talks

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Speaker 5: to people and tries to gather information. I do sit

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Speaker 5: in the room with the members, so I do. I

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Speaker 5: kind of have an inside information. So I'm not really

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Speaker 5: as good. It's just I have different insights.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's right, because you're bringing us behind the scenes here,

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Speaker 1: what's the conversation about Ukraine? Because Matt Gates went to

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Speaker 1: the floor today and I should let you hear his

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Speaker 1: actual words. This idea of a motion to vacate, he says,

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Speaker 1: will hinge on what Republicans learn about a so called

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Speaker 1: secret deal on Ukraine. Here he is a short time

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Speaker 1: ago on the floor of the House.

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Speaker 6: So mister Speaker, just tell us, just tell us what

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Speaker 6: was in the secret Ukraine side deal. What commitments were

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Speaker 6: made to President Biden to continue the spending of President

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Speaker 6: Biden in exchange for doing things for President Biden. It

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Speaker 6: is becoming increasingly clear who the Speaker of the House

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Speaker 6: already works for. And it's not the Republican Conference.

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Speaker 1: He says, it's Joe Biden. Sarah Chamberlain, do you know

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Speaker 1: anything about a secret deal on Ukraine?

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Speaker 5: I do not, and ads are I probably would know

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Speaker 5: it if it existed. I just really think that's Matt

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Speaker 5: Gates's talking, trying to justify potentially recalling Speaker McCarthy. But

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Speaker 5: I have no knowledge of a secret deal at all.

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Speaker 1: That's important here because the matter of Ukraine will need

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Speaker 1: to be dealt with, and so will this mutiny. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how many folks, how many members Matt Gates

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Speaker 1: has on his side here, but he has made clear

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Speaker 1: he will file the motion to vacate this week. Sarah,

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Speaker 1: will the Speaker survive?

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Speaker 5: So right now I believe you will. I absolutely do

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Speaker 5: think you will. I have to be honest with you.

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Speaker 5: I have not got an update yet on how many

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Speaker 5: members will be going with Matt Gates. The thought is

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Speaker 5: there's between five to seven. So if that is all

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Speaker 5: there are, then Speaker McCarthy should survive. But I really

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Speaker 5: want to emphasize I don't know who wants this job.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it is probably the worst job in DC,

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Speaker 5: if not one of the worst in the country. So

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Speaker 5: if he does, if mac Gates does succeed in recalling

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Speaker 5: speaker McCarthy, who is going to step in and take

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Speaker 5: this place. The country needs a speaker, The country needs

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Speaker 5: to get things done. Your earlier segment talked about potential recession.

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Speaker 5: We have to have the government functioning if the United

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Speaker 5: States is going into a recession.

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Speaker 1: So you have it from Sarah Chamberlain, President's CEO of

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Speaker 1: the Republican Main Street Partnership. Thank you for guiding us

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Speaker 1: in the right direction. Sarah, We're lucky to have you

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Speaker 1: and I appreciate your insights today. As Sarah refers, there's

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Speaker 1: a very important story that's on the terminal that you

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Speaker 1: can find yourself here. But we're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: it with Mark Zandi. Why a US recession is still

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Speaker 1: more likely than a soft landing. Remember we have spoken

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Speaker 1: with our analysts at Bee at Bloomberg Economics, including Anna Wong,

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Speaker 1: who set a government shut down, a strike in Detroit,

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Speaker 1: both of which at the time looked inevitable. One hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars barrel oil and the resumption of student loan payments

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Speaker 1: all come together to form a recession in this country

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Speaker 1: just as we're flying into a presidential election cycle. Gladness say,

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Speaker 1: Mark is with us now. The chief economists at Moody's Analytics.

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Speaker 1: Mark Zandy, many thanks for joining. It's good to see you. Mark.

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Speaker 1: We avoided a shutdown. How about we start with the

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Speaker 1: positive here, But there's no sense of what happens after

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Speaker 1: November seventeenth. We were told that this would have corrosive

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Speaker 1: effects on the economy. How worried about this? Are you

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Speaker 1: still much less so?

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Speaker 7: Joe?

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Speaker 8: I think, you know, November mid November, I'd be pretty

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Speaker 8: surprised at this point at the if lawmakers shut the

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Speaker 8: government down. I mean, I think they realized that it's

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Speaker 8: not good economics, but more importantly, it's really bad politics.

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Speaker 8: And this is right before Thanksgiving and the holidays. I

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Speaker 8: just don't see it. I suspect at this point they're

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Speaker 8: going to come together and kind of sign on a

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Speaker 8: deal that is very close to what they agree to

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Speaker 8: back when they passed legislation to end the debt limit

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Speaker 8: to drama. So you know, you know, obviously things go

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Speaker 8: different directions heres as we saw this weekend. But I'm

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Speaker 8: feeling pretty good they were going to avoid a shutdown

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Speaker 8: at this point.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's great to hear. I just listed off a

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Speaker 1: bunch of other potential headwinds. For our economy though, And

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Speaker 1: I wonder where your your head is on the soft

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Speaker 1: landing idea. You've been allowing for this possibility since long

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Speaker 1: before the markets came around on this. Now folks are

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Speaker 1: feeling a little more downbeat, and the resumption of student

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Speaker 1: loan payments is a big part of that. Marks something

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Speaker 1: we haven't talked enough about.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I Matt, the producer sent me the piece. I

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Speaker 8: hadn't seen it before, right before this conversation. Took a

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Speaker 8: look overly pessimistic in my view. You know, yeah, those

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Speaker 8: are it's a scenario. Yeah, sure, I mean recession ods

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Speaker 8: are high, and for the reasons that the analysis gave.

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Speaker 8: I mean, you know, obviously we've got the student loan

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Speaker 8: payments kicking back in the UAW strike, We've got higher

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Speaker 8: interest rates, higher oil prices, but they all kind of

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Speaker 8: small potatoes, Joe, and the grand scheme of things, I mean,

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Speaker 8: they add up to really something. So Q four is

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Speaker 8: going to be soawt, but Q three is gagbusters. I

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Speaker 8: mean I think GDP he's probably going to commit four

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Speaker 8: or five percent, So you know, okay, and the economy's

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Speaker 8: creating a boatloaded jobs. Businesses don't want to lay off.

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Speaker 8: They desperately don't want to do that because you know,

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Speaker 8: they know on the other side of whatever this is

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Speaker 8: we're experience, they're going to have problems with the holding

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Speaker 8: on the labor and consumers are hanging tough. I mean,

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Speaker 8: they're spending and based on the GDP revisions, I won't

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Speaker 8: go down into the details, but those revisions were very positive.

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Speaker 8: They suggest that consumers have a lot more extra cash

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Speaker 8: than we thought they did. So yeah, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 8: recessions are real risk. You know, you look at history.

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Speaker 8: If you live in a world of high inflation and

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Speaker 8: a FED on the war path, you invariably end up

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Speaker 8: in recession. So that's not a you know, an unreasonable forecast,

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Speaker 8: but it's an unlikely one.

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Speaker 1: How about that. So well, listen, your optimism is is well,

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Speaker 1: it's relative optimism, well received.

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Speaker 8: It gets some pretty bleak forecast.

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Speaker 1: I am, of course, I am, But a lot of

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Speaker 1: folks think that a lot of folks have have counted

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Speaker 1: out the con and you're not one of them. Mark.

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Speaker 1: That's really what we're talking about here.

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Speaker 8: I mean why, I mean, the consumer is like rock solid,

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Speaker 8: I mean, real consumer spending growth, the whole shooting match

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Speaker 8: you know, everything is two percent ish on the nose,

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Speaker 8: which is like exactly what you want, right, That's enough

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Speaker 8: to keep the economy moving forward out without out of recession,

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Speaker 8: but not so strong that it generates inflationary pressures. I mean,

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Speaker 8: it's like, you know, you couldn't, I couldn't draw it

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Speaker 8: on a piece of paper better than it's happening now.

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Speaker 8: And all the fundamentals look good, you know, jobs, unemployment,

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Speaker 8: real wages are a rising, a lot of excess saving

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Speaker 8: that service is low. Yeah, I mean, low income households

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Speaker 8: are under pressure, no doubt about it. But middle income,

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Speaker 8: high income households, their balance she's never been stronger. Stock

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Speaker 8: prices are down, housing values are flat, but people are

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Speaker 8: still a lot wealthier than they were when they're a

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Speaker 8: lot wealthier than they were when the pandemic hit just

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Speaker 8: a few years ago. So I'm I'm hard pressed. You know,

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Speaker 8: why would the consumer pack it in unless something happened now,

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Speaker 8: thing's happened, right, There could be another shock. Something we're

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Speaker 8: not you know that, you know, we're not for casting

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Speaker 8: at this point, but so it's it's not again an

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Speaker 8: unreasonable concern, but it's seems much more likely than not

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Speaker 8: the consumer is going to hang in.

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Speaker 1: There is the FED done, I think.

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Speaker 8: So, I hope so, I mean, I don't think they

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Speaker 8: need to raise races any further. I mean, inflation, sticking

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Speaker 8: to script, is come in write in, you know, as

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Speaker 8: the the shocks from the pandemic and Russian war fade,

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Speaker 8: and they're increasingly the rearview mirror those. Inflation is moderating

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Speaker 8: as as you would expect, and you know it's going

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Speaker 8: to take another six to twelve eighteen months to get

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Speaker 8: it back to target. But you know, I think that

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Speaker 8: the interest rates where they are today is sufficient to

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Speaker 8: accomplish that. So and then, as I said at Q four,

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Speaker 8: growth is going to be soft for all the reasons

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Speaker 8: that the piece you know that you mentioned put forward.

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Speaker 8: So it is going to be soft. So I think

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Speaker 8: that'll be enough evidence less inflation to headed to target

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Speaker 8: and slow growing economy be sufficient to forestall, you know,

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Speaker 8: further rate hikes. I do think the FED has set

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Speaker 8: us up for you know, much slower rate cuts when

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Speaker 8: they start cutting late next year going into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 8: But and that's one reason why long term rates are up,

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Speaker 8: you know, over the last couple three weeks. But so

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Speaker 8: I don't think they'll be cutting quickly, but I think

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Speaker 8: that they're probably in the rate hikes are over.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the higher for longer story gets interesting here. You're

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Speaker 1: banking on a cut by the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: I presume, Mark. What does that mean for mortgage rates?

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Speaker 1: Have they peaked?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think so.

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Speaker 8: I mean we're said, what seven point six seven seven

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Speaker 8: point seven on a three year fixed that would be

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Speaker 8: you know, consistent, you know, obviously with a four and

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Speaker 8: a half percent ten year yield and a three innerd

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Speaker 8: basis point three percentage point spread, which is very wide

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Speaker 8: by historical standards for understandable reasons. So if I you know,

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Speaker 8: if I'm right about the FED in growth, I think

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Speaker 8: tenure treasure yields are probably close to a peak. And

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Speaker 8: if they're at a peak, I think mortgage rates are

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Speaker 8: at a peak. Again, I don't think rates are going

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Speaker 8: to come in fast though, We're going to be you know,

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Speaker 8: higher rates for a long longer here, which means we

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Speaker 8: will see home sales are already dead in the water anyway.

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Speaker 8: This run up and rates isn't going to do any

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Speaker 8: more damage there, but it could probably will result in

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Speaker 8: some house price declients. Here, so it's been expecting that

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Speaker 8: for quite some time. So I do think we'll see,

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Speaker 8: you know, some further weakness in housing. But hey, Joe,

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Speaker 8: you know, the housing market, the single family housing market

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Speaker 8: is the single most interest rate sensitive sector of the

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Speaker 8: economy bar none. Yeah, and you know, it has held

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Speaker 8: up pretty well. Surprising about in fact, housing in aggregate

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Speaker 8: if you consider, you know, multi family activity has actually

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Speaker 8: been effectively flat because the multi family market's been strong

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Speaker 8: up to this point in time and offset the weakness

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Speaker 8: and single family. So net net housing has been basically

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Speaker 8: neutral with respect to the economy, when if you're really

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Speaker 8: going to go into recession, you'd expect housing to be

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Speaker 8: you know, sinking housing and aggregate sinking you know, into

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Speaker 8: the into the black hole.

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Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, I never had to buy a house in

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Speaker 1: the eighties, but I'll wear the seventies for that man.

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Speaker 1: But I'll tell you what, that seven sixth rate that

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Speaker 1: you point out was the exact to the letter, the

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Speaker 1: exact mortgage rate that we had the first time we

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Speaker 1: bought a home in our family, and we thought it

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Speaker 1: was a steal because we had heard about my god

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Speaker 1: when you were growing up, they were eighteen percent. I

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Speaker 1: always feel better when I talk to Mark Zandy. I

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Speaker 1: hope everyone does, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Thank

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Speaker 1: you Mark, as always for sharing insights. We've got a

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Speaker 1: lot to talk about with our panel, not just the economy,

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Speaker 1: but shut down politics and what the heck happens after

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Speaker 1: November seventeenth. Does Kevin McCarthy know and will he still

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Speaker 1: be speaker? All that's ahead with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano.

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Speaker 1: I'm the fastest show in politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 1: Now that we've established the government did not shut down

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Speaker 1: over the weekend, we look to the fallout here. Not

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Speaker 1: only what will happen after November seventeenth, that's how long

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Speaker 1: this plan goes for, but what happens to the Speaker

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Speaker 1: of the House. Congressman Matt Gates made very clear on

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning, following the vote on this continuing resolution that

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Speaker 1: he was going for it, the motion to vacate.

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Speaker 6: I do intend to file a motion to vacate against

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Speaker 6: Speaker McCarthy this week. I think we need to strip

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Speaker 6: off the band aid. I think we need to move

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Speaker 6: on with new leadership that can be trustworthy.

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Speaker 1: That was on ABC next Door on CBS, the Speaker

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Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy says, once again, bring it on.

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Speaker 7: He's more interested in securing TV interviews than doing something.

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Speaker 7: He wanted to push us into a shutdown, even threatening

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Speaker 7: his own district with all the military people there who

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Speaker 7: would not be paid, only because he will wants to

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Speaker 7: take this motion, So be it. Bring it on, Let's

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Speaker 7: get over with it and let's start governing.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of TV interviews, we're going to be talking with

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Speaker 1: Congressman Matt Gates later on today here on Bloomberg Radio

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg TV when we get to Balance a Power,

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Speaker 1: a special show we have lined up from the Hill

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Speaker 1: and we'll be talking to a lot of the folks

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Speaker 1: here who are making the decisions around this. And brought

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Speaker 1: us to this point following weeks of on again, off again, negotiations.

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Speaker 1: Fast forward to today, Matt Gates on the floor of

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Speaker 1: the House talking about a secret deal to fund Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: and he says when he learns more about that deal,

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Speaker 1: he'll have a better sense of who might vote for

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Speaker 1: this motion to vacate.

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Speaker 6: Members of the Republican Party might vote differently on a

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Speaker 6: motion to vacate if they heard what the speaker had

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Speaker 6: to share with us about his secret side deal with

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Speaker 6: Joe Biden on Ukraine. I'll be listening, Stay tuned.

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Speaker 1: Stay tuned. Indeed. As we assembled our panel, Genie Schanzano

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Speaker 1: and Rick Davis joined Bloomberg Politics contributors off a wild weekend. Rick,

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Speaker 1: I'll start with you on secret deals here, whether you

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Speaker 1: think that's true or not. Sarah Chamberlain from Main Street

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Speaker 1: Partnership told us earlier she's heard nothing about this, and

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Speaker 1: maybe I should fill in a couple of blanks. It's

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Speaker 1: important here. This legislation that passed over the weekend includes

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Speaker 1: money for disaster relief sixteen billion dollars, but no aid

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Speaker 1: for Ukraine. That's expected to come up at a later

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Speaker 1: time here in the appropriations process. Rick, what's Matt Gates

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Speaker 1: talking about?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, look, I mean it's kind of hard to tell

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Speaker 9: what he thinks is secret. The President has requested funding

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Speaker 9: for the Ukraine. The Senate has included it in the

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Speaker 9: various versions of the stopgap bill that they were promoting.

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Speaker 9: Everyone has spoken out on this, and so to think

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Speaker 9: that there's somehow, some hidden deal that's going to result

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Speaker 9: in a vote in the House. You're going to get

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Speaker 9: a vote in the House, Matt, and it's going to

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Speaker 9: require you to get on the record for being either

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Speaker 9: putin or for Ukraine. And I don't understand what he

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Speaker 9: thinks might be secret. Absolutely, there's going to be a

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Speaker 9: vote on Ukraine. Aid I would point out that Mike Quigley,

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Speaker 9: the one Democrat that voted against the Continued Resolution, did

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Speaker 9: so because there was no funding for the Ukraine in

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Speaker 9: that bill, so that everyone there expects it to happen.

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Speaker 9: I don't understand what Gates thinks is not.

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Speaker 1: Going to happen. Well, And there's going to be apparently

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Speaker 1: a vote on a motion to vacate as well here, Genie,

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Speaker 1: probably a lot sooner than anyone gets to vote on Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: The question remains, will Democrats take part in this exercise

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Speaker 1: to either protect Speaker McCarthy or help to oust him.

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Speaker 1: Which do you think it'll be. Yeah, I mean we.

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Speaker 3: Think there's going to be a motion to vakate. Gates

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Speaker 3: was saying all weekend there would be an immediate motion

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Speaker 3: to vkate. Then he goes on the floor today and

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Speaker 3: no motion to vacate. So we're all sort of in

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Speaker 3: waiting mode for this historic motion to vacate, if and

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Speaker 3: when it ever happens. And you're right, it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: in the Democrats' hands what they decide to do, and

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Speaker 3: it is unclear at this point what they will decide.

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Speaker 3: We heard people like Alexandria Cosio Cortes this weekend saying

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Speaker 3: she would like to vote against Kevin McCarthy. We've heard

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Speaker 3: from moderate Democrats that they are more inclined to, you know,

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Speaker 3: sort of stop and help end the chaos by keeping

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Speaker 3: him there. But it's really gonna come down to what Hakem,

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Speaker 3: Jeffries and the leadership decide. And one interesting thing is

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Speaker 3: Nancy Pelosi has said she would not vote to save McCarthy,

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Speaker 3: but she will follow the leadership, so you know, but

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Speaker 3: her advice to Jeffrey seems to be don't save them,

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Speaker 3: and Democrats are not happy with Kevin McCarthy, not only

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Speaker 3: the vote to impeach or the impeachment inquiry that he started,

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Speaker 3: but going back to Donald Trump after January sixth, breaking

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Speaker 3: his deal with Joe Biden, and then even on Saturday

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Speaker 3: jamming that bill through without giving them time to read

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Speaker 3: through it. All of those things make them feel they

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Speaker 3: can't trust him, and they may not want to work

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Speaker 3: with him unless he's willing to strike a deal and

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Speaker 3: make some concessions. But of course that's going to cost

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Speaker 3: him support amongst Republicans. So it's really unclear at this

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Speaker 3: point how he survives, except he's going to have to

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Speaker 3: depend on Democrats to do that well.

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Speaker 1: And that's the point that Matt Gates was making yesterday.

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Speaker 1: I find this really interesting. In his Sunday Shows interviews Rick,

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Speaker 1: it was less about firing Kevin McCarthy and more about

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Speaker 1: exposing him as one sympathetic to Democrats. Listen to how

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Speaker 1: he put.

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Speaker 6: This, I actually think Democrats are going to bail out

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Speaker 6: Kevin McCarthy. So this is an exercise to show the

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Speaker 6: American people who really governs you and how that governing occurs.

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Speaker 6: So I'm on a mission to change it. Where we're

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Speaker 6: evaluating these bills independently. Kevin McCarthy is off making a

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Speaker 6: secret deal on Ukraine as he's baiting Republicans to vote

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Speaker 6: for a continuing resolution that doesn't include Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: All right, Rick, that was on ABC. He doesn't actually

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Speaker 1: expect to fire Kevin McCarthy. That means that Republican votes

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Speaker 1: are not there or Democrats are, which is it.

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Speaker 9: Well, his trading range for Republicans who are willing to

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Speaker 9: kick out Kevin McCarthy is probably twenty to thirty votes, right,

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Speaker 9: So it's not a lot of people that he needs

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Speaker 9: to run around and talk to to see whether or

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Speaker 9: not they're willing to exercise a emotion of vacate. So

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Speaker 9: he's doing that right now. That's the reason he hasn't

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Speaker 9: announced it yet, is he's talking to those twenty or

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Speaker 9: thirty members saying, are you with me? Are you ready

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Speaker 9: to storm the blockade? And my guess is he's getting

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Speaker 9: a lot of no's because in the sort of cooler

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Speaker 9: heads of the moment, I think most of these guys

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Speaker 9: who have been given Kevin a hard time realize he's

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Speaker 9: probably sitting at two hundred votes for a speaker no

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Speaker 9: matter what happens.

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Speaker 1: So of motion to vacate.

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Speaker 9: So it's highly unlikely that there anything's in a result

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Speaker 9: other than upsetting Kevin McCarthy. And regardless of whether he

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Speaker 9: uses Democratic votes or not, he'll still he'll be Speaker,

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Speaker 9: He'll decide what committees you're on. He's going to decide

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Speaker 9: what legislation you get to pass. So you know this,

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Speaker 9: this is a gut check for those guys. I would

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Speaker 9: remind everybody that they did not give Kevin McCarthy any choice.

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Speaker 9: They said no three times in a row in the

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Speaker 9: week before leading up to the deadline for funding to

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Speaker 9: every option they claimed to be four And so the

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Speaker 9: same group that was tying him up in knots are

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Speaker 9: now saying that he can't do business with the Democrats,

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Speaker 9: which means that we don't want to do any business

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Speaker 9: in the House of Representatives. I think the long ball

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Speaker 9: here is Kevin McCarthy banking on getting stuff done. Whether

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Speaker 9: he gets it with Democrats or not, is going to

436
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 9: be as Genie said, up to leadership. But they've now

437
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 9: shown a big propensity to willingness to support him on

438
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 9: this budget bill. And by the way, we've got another

439
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 9: funding crisis coming up, you know, in the middle of

440
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 9: November and those conversations for being had now. But when

441
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 9: I look at this vote, three hundred and thirty five

442
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 9: to ninety one, I'd say that's a governing majority in

443
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 9: anybody's business.

444
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: Does it also mean that we won't shut down on

445
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: November seventeenth, Genie, I don't know.

446
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 3: If you should bank on that. You might want to

447
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 3: have your Thanksgiving dinner figured out in case we do.

448
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew, you know, I hope we do not. I

449
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 3: hope that the next several weeks they are able to

450
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 3: reach deals. But it was unclear. We heard Kevin McCarthy

451
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: talking about tying border security to funding for Ukraine. It

452
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 3: was unclear how that was going to work and what

453
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 3: kind of support he could get on something like that.

454
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 3: We do no support for Ukraine as much as there is,

455
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 3: or Ukraine funding, not support for Ukraine as much support

456
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: as there is. It has gone down, and you even

457
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 3: hear the Senate saying you're going to have to do

458
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 3: a one big bill. You can't break it up. So

459
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 3: it's unclear how he moves this forward. And the ninety

460
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 3: he lost in his own cock on Saturday is telling.

461
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 3: So he is going to have to rely on Democrats

462
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 3: for a lot of this to move forward. But the

463
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: best thing he's got going for him, to Sarah's earlier point,

464
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 3: nobody else is in the offing for this job, nobody

465
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 3: wants it, nobody's near to eighteen votes, and so who

466
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 3: else would there be but Kevin McCarthy.

467
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 1: All right, We've got a lot more to talk about

468
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: with Jeanie and Rick as Gavin Newsom makes the appointment,

469
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: The big announcement on who will replace Senator the late

470
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: Senator Dianne Feinstein, just one of many other breaking stories

471
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: that we're looking at. Here.

472
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us

473
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

474
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening.

475
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: On demand wherever you get your podcasts. This was Gavin Newsom,

476
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: of course, the Democratic governor of California, on the sixteenth

477
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: of March twenty twenty one, asked about appointing a woman

478
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: potentially for Senate here, of course, not knowing that we'd

479
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: be talking about now the late Senator Dianne Feinstein, but

480
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 1: should this opportunity arise? He was on MSNBC here, So, will.

481
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 6: You nominate an African American woman to restore the seat

482
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 6: that Kamala Harris is no longer in the United States Senate?

483
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 6: And do you have a name in mind?

484
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 1: I have multiple.

485
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: We have multiple names in mind.

486
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: And the answer is yes. The answer is yes, remembering,

487
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: of course, that Kamala Harris had just left California to

488
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 1: become Vice President. Fast forward to today and you have

489
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: your answer. Indeed, it was yes. Gavin Knwso tweets I'm

490
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: proud to announce California's new United States Senator, Lafonza Butler,

491
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: who he writes, has spent her entire career fighting for

492
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: women and girls and has been a fierce advocate for

493
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: working people. As you'll read on the terminal, this is

494
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 1: the ahead of Emily's list. The funds of Butler, longtime

495
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 1: labor leader as well ran the SEIU. As we recall

496
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: some of her stylings on the podium, this was just

497
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: last year, twenty twenty two. The funds of bout that.

498
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: Right now we know that right now is our time,

499
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: and right now it is our turn.

500
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 8: It's our turn.

501
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: To build power like we've never built power before.

502
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 3: Connecting the abortion rights movement, with the labor movement, with

503
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 3: the climate movement, with.

504
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 6: The Black Lives Matters.

505
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 4: Movement, with the Native American protection movement.

506
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 1: She will be the only black woman in the current

507
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: US Senate. Let's reassemble the panel for their take. Genie Shanzino,

508
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 1: was it the right call for Gavin Newsom?

509
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 3: I think it was. You know, he put himself in

510
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 3: a bit of a buying twenty one when he made

511
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 3: that promise. He was under pressure because of his replacement

512
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 3: of Kamala Harris, and you know, he was facing three

513
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 3: really beloved members of the House who are now in

514
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 3: the race. He didn't want to tip those scales, and

515
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: so to go with Butler was a smart choice. To

516
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,719
Speaker 3: do it quickly, to give the Democrats in the Senate

517
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 3: a governing majority, a smart choice. And also, I think

518
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,959
Speaker 3: importantly generationally, you know, Barbara Lee, certainly not happy today,

519
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: was pushing for this appointment, didn't get it. But like

520
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 3: so many Americans, people in California want a new generation

521
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: of leader, and Butler does that. You know, she's in

522
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 3: her fifties, she's energetic, she's young, she has a strong

523
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 3: liberal record for all those things you just talked about.

524
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 3: So it was a good move, and it allowed Newsom

525
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 3: to keep his promise. I think it's really important that

526
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: Butler did not get talked into making a deal. She'll

527
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 3: be a caretaker, so she could run if she decides to.

528
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 3: I think the caughtoff would be December eighth. We'll have

529
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: to watch and see if she's the fourth person in

530
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 3: this race going in then as an incumbent senator, which

531
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 3: does give her some advantage.

532
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple of interesting things here, Rick. She did

533
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: not pledge to be a caretaker. She may well run

534
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: for this seat. We'll find out about that. But she

535
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: lives in the Greater Washington area. I believe Silver Spring, Maryland.

536
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: Is that a problem?

537
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 9: No, I think they call it a carpetbagger. She's only

538
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 9: a carpetbagger if she runs for office. Right now, she's

539
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 9: just a good appointment, no guarantee that she'll run. K

540
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,479
Speaker 9: Newsom wasn't guaranteeing that she wouldn't. And I think it's

541
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 9: kind of an interesting pick in that regard because there's

542
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 9: obviously a big cast of characters on the Democratic side

543
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 9: who want that nomination. You know, Adam shiff Barbaraly, Katie Porter.

544
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 9: They've all been raising a lot of money and they're

545
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 9: ready to roll and introduce somebody new to the equation.

546
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 9: I think, really destabilize it. So I wouldn't be surprised

547
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 9: if she does become a caretaker. Kind of makes sense

548
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 9: to bring someone from out of state who doesn't have

549
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 9: a political lineage in California.

550
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: What do you make of this genie? And what does

551
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: Adam Shift do when there's a call to have a

552
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 1: woman of color in this seat? So many people were

553
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: looking at him for a glide path to victory. How

554
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 1: about now?

555
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, I think Shift definitely will

556
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 3: stay in the race. As we look at the polls, now,

557
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 3: you know, we do see that Shift and Porter are

558
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 3: in the lead. Again, it's still early. Barbara Lee is behind.

559
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 3: She's also behind when it comes to fundraising, we understand.

560
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: So Porter and Shift really have the advantage from that perspective.

561
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: But to your point, there is a lot of there

562
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: are a lot of people in California who would like

563
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 3: to see an African American woman in that seat, and

564
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: that does vode better for somebody like Lee or Butler

565
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,479
Speaker 3: if she does decide to enter this race. And you know,

566
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: those are concerns that Schiff has to keep in mind.

567
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 3: That said, he's a very popular member of the House

568
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 3: delegation from California, and I think given his polling and fundraising,

569
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: he stays in this race. It's an open primary in California.

570
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: That's another interesting twist on this that's going to make

571
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 3: it a race to watch, so something to really see

572
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: out there, and of course, whoever wins can if they

573
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 3: serve the people well, be there thirty forty years depending

574
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 3: on their age, and if they're able to you know,

575
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 3: really serve the constituents well and get re elected. That's

576
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 3: what we've seen in California in the past, so a

577
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 3: very very powerful seat.

578
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 1: Is this shaping up to be the most expensive Senate

579
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: race of the cycle? Rick, Yeah, it certainly could be.

580
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 9: I mean, there are some other hut states that could

581
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 9: generate a lot of expense, but California, definitely, with the

582
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 9: crazy primary that got the general election, will be a

583
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 9: walkthrough for whoever the Democratic nomination is because it's become

584
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 9: a one party state. But that does raise the ante

585
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 9: when it comes to winning that primary. So yeah, I

586
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 9: would anticipate this being a hugely expensive state, especially as

587
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,719
Speaker 9: more and more people get into this primary, including potentially Butler.

588
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: I guess it seems to me it's the story in

589
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 1: the end, Genie that you can't deny is Gavin Newsom rising.

590
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: We only have a minute left. He's going to be

591
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: one of the president's chief surrogates if he's not drafted

592
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: into a presidential election cycle. He's the man to debate

593
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis. Apparently now this he's spending every day on

594
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: the front page lately.

595
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: He really is, and you know, pooh poohing. I was

596
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 3: at least these Republican debates. I'm really anxious to see

597
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: the debate you just mentioned between DeSantis and Newsom. They're

598
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 3: a new generation of potential leaders from both sides of

599
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 3: the aisle.

600
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of looking forward to that, Rick, how

601
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 1: about you. This is one that we might actually want

602
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: to sit down and watch them more closely.

603
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 9: It's got to be better than these two previous Republican

604
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 9: debates that have been real scheezers. So yeah, I'm looking

605
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 9: forward to that too.

606
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: With Rick Davis and Gdi Shanzano. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

607
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: We've got a lot more to follow today. The government

608
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: is still open. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to The

609
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at

610
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 1: one Eastern.

611
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.

612
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: And the Bloomberg Business App.

613
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

614
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

615
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: Look who I found? Kaylee Lines is with us, and

616
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: I've just got to stop down because we are real

617
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 1: people here. Sometimes in the throes of this whole wonky

618
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 1: thing about the government shutting down and what might come next.

619
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett just said it. Did you see the images

620
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: from the sphere last weekend?

621
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 5: Yeah?

622
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: In Las Vegas?

623
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 10: Pretty cool?

624
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: Oh my god, we thought the outside of this thing

625
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: was cool. Producer James saw it and was blown away,

626
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: like me, this is like, so you two is in

627
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: residence there, residence see there, And I guess that's why

628
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: we haven't had a chance. It's like the first concert there,

629
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: so yeah, can we do a remote live remote?

630
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 10: Oh you're a great idea, but the show right on

631
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 10: the stage the managers.

632
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got to see this sometimes. All right, So

633
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: Vegas bound, when's the Nevada Caucus again find out James, Well,

634
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: we've got a few things to talk about here. We

635
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: thought we'd be doing a shutdown show today. We figured

636
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: we'd be two days into a shutdown. The government is

637
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: still open. YEP. No one's still exactly sure how that'll

638
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: happen so fast to the point where the President, with

639
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: I believe thirty two minutes left, managed to put pen

640
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: to paper and sign this thing in a law.

641
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 10: A buzzer beater, I believe that is what they can show. Yes,

642
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 10: and yeah, we're not shut down. We will stay that

643
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 10: way until November seventeenth, which is maybe when we do

644
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 10: this entire song and dance over again. My questions are,

645
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 10: between now and the seventeenth of November, will we see

646
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 10: actually something bipartisan coming together in terms of those twelve

647
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 10: appropriation bills they're still going to need to be reconciled

648
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 10: between the House and the Senate. And also by that time,

649
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 10: will Kevin McCarthy still be Speaker.

650
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 1: Of the House. All huge questions, did we simply prolong

651
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: the shutdown? And will Kevin McCarthy have the gavel to

652
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:14,399
Speaker 1: find out? Both of those remain unanswered. Matt Gates did

653
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 1: speak from the floor earlier today, but no motion. As

654
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 1: I said earlier, here's how he put this. It's about

655
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: a secret deal, a secret Ukraine deal. They want to

656
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: find out about that before they vote. He has questions,

657
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: so I got that about right here.

658
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 6: He is members of the Republican Party might vote differently

659
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 6: on a motion to vacate if they heard what the

660
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 6: Speaker had to share with us about his secret side

661
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 6: deal with Joe Biden on Ukraine. I'll be listening, stay tuned.

662
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: I still don't get what the secret side deal is though,

663
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: because they didn't get money for Ukraine, right.

664
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 10: I think what he's alleging is that there was some

665
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 10: agreement that if they passed a continuing resolution, they'll come

666
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 10: back around.

667
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: With the Ukraine vote, right, which has not yet happened, and.

668
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 10: The administration still wants.

669
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 1: It absolutely yes, and there is I think majority support

670
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 1: for it, which is interesting here, no such deal. According

671
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,919
Speaker 1: to Sarah Chamberlain we spoke with about an hour ago

672
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,359
Speaker 1: Republican Main Street Partnership. She's the president, she was the

673
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 1: only one who predicted this. Here she is on the

674
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: twenty sixth of September, with this unbalance of power. Sarah

675
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: Chamberlain on whether the government would shut down or not.

676
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,720
Speaker 4: I do not think we're going to have a government shutdown.

677
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 5: You don't think we're not government down.

678
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 4: I think what the Senate put out today is going

679
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 4: to be helpful. I think the Republicans would negotiate to

680
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 4: try to get as close to that as possible. And

681
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 4: I think the last possible minute we are going to

682
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 4: we're going to sum.

683
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: Last That's exactly how it went. Called it, That's exactly

684
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: how it went.

685
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 2: Yeah.

686
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: Uh, I wonder if Mick saw that coming. We've been

687
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 1: talking to Mick mulvaney about this thing because we knew

688
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 1: it was weeks in the making. YEP, A slow motion

689
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 1: train wreck is what it felt like. Mick mulvaaney, what

690
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 1: do you think about this last minute turn here?

691
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 11: No, you're being the mean to be Joe. You know,

692
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 11: I didn't see that one. I was with everybody else

693
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 11: that was going to shut down over the weekend.

694
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: So well, yeah, but I mean, what, so you woke

695
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: up Saturday though, and that something was in the water.

696
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 1: What changed?

697
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 11: I don't know. I got the impression because I was

698
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 11: there all last week that this really was last minute,

699
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 11: that something happened at the last minute that changed Kevin's

700
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 11: mind and decided this was a better way to go forward.

701
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 11: I don't think it was the Senate passing a deal.

702
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 11: I thought he would really go into shutdown for a

703
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 11: couple of days. Peven might have shut down of less

704
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 11: than fourteen days is really politically it hurts, but there's

705
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 11: no real application in the real world because everybody gets paid.

706
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 11: Right If people say, well, you don't get paid to

707
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 11: go to work, you know, did you guys get paid today?

708
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 11: Probably not. You're working today doesn't mean you're not. You're

709
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 11: working for no pay. You're not gonna get paid to

710
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 11: your next pay here. So I thought there'd be a

711
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 11: short period of shutdown that is wrong. Be curious to

712
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 11: see if this was just delaying the inevitable, if there's

713
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 11: some larger deals cooking. I might have back to DC

714
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 11: right now to see if I can find out.

715
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 10: Well, we look forward to hearing what you find out.

716
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 10: But we had been talking about this. Mick is kind

717
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 10: of a binary choice for Speaker McCarthy. Either he allows

718
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,919
Speaker 10: the government to shut down or he doesn't. He acts

719
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 10: to avert it and then risks his job. And aren't

720
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,240
Speaker 10: we seeing the latter play out now? As a result

721
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 10: of his actions this weekend.

722
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 11: You know, starting to come around to the idea that

723
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 11: maybe Matt Gates is crazy and that this is really

724
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 11: about his This the fact you're talking about him. He

725
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 11: was on all the news shows over the weekend, He's

726
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 11: been on TV today. He says he's going to file emotion.

727
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 11: Then he goes to the to the well today to

728
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 11: speak and everybody covers it. It might just be a

729
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 11: big PR stunt, and I maybe it is that the

730
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 11: outcome of the shutdown and the r have nothing to

731
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:44,919
Speaker 11: do with whether not Matt Gates is going to file

732
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 11: his motion. He might do it one way or the

733
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 11: other regardless. So the real question is successful There's always

734
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 11: folks seeking PR in Washington, d C. The question is

735
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 11: are they, you know, are they successful accomplishing what they

736
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 11: want to accomplish. I keep coming back to what you

737
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 11: and I have talked about before, which is who else

738
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 11: in their right mind wants the job? Who else could

739
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 11: get the job? There's a short list of people. I

740
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 11: think Matt Gates mentioned Tom Cole, who I'd like, but

741
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 11: they said he's not a fiscal conservative, and Tom Emmer,

742
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 11: who would never take the job. I mean, who in

743
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 11: their right mind would want to take the speakership under

744
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 11: these circumstances when they could be the next one to

745
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 11: having to deal with Matt Gates on the Sunday Talk Show.

746
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 11: So I think you saw that in Kevin's attitude last

747
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 11: week about just bring the motion, you know, get the

748
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 11: games over. I don't think that was his showing frustration.

749
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 11: I think that was him doing the math and realizing

750
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 11: that he's pretty secure because nobody else can win, and

751
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 11: even if they could, they wouldn't want it.

752
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 1: Well, Matt Gates said yesterday morning in one of his

753
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: several Sunday morning interviews that it wasn't necessarily about firing

754
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, that he didn't necessarily have the votes because

755
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 1: Democrats would come to his defense. Just to get into

756
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 1: this more specifically, Mick, does he have the Republican votes?

757
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 1: First question?

758
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 5: Two?

759
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: Separately, would Democrats otherwise come to his defense?

760
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 11: And I was reading some comments this morning in the

761
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 11: press and there were lines like I wouldn't follow Matt

762
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 11: Gates into a steakhouse and this is all about just

763
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 11: Matt Gates getting clicks and running for governor, And those

764
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 11: were comments from Democrats. So if that's the case, look

765
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,879
Speaker 11: that the support for Kevin has always been strong within

766
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 11: his party. Never Kevin group was between five and fifteen,

767
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,959
Speaker 11: depending upon what vote you were looking at and so forth.

768
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 11: So that Kevin would support within the Republicans is critical.

769
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,839
Speaker 11: And Matt, I guess, is assuming that every Democrat would

770
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 11: vote against him. I'm sure he's thought through the process

771
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 11: here in mind. He said over the weekend he would

772
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 11: file the motion this week. That's an important choice because

773
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 11: politicians love to tell you the partial truth, of partial

774
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 11: truth and nothing but the partial truth. And you could

775
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 11: file this motion anytime and not call it up. So

776
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 11: in theory, Matt could could file it today and not

777
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 11: ask that it'd be heard, and that would satisfy his

778
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 11: promise to file it this week. There's all sorts of

779
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 11: wrinkles here. I think the bottom line is that he

780
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 11: doesn't have the votes to get Karthy kicked out of office,

781
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 11: and he knows it.

782
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 5: Well.

783
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 10: It's going to come down to the issue of the Democrats, obviously.

784
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 10: And I saw a tweet from of all people, Marjorie

785
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 10: Taylor Green earlier. She posted a long threader. I guess

786
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 10: it technically was an ex post. That's what we call

787
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 10: them now. Mick and she was talking about how she

788
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 10: thinks emotion to vacate is a mistake in part because

789
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 10: it gives leverage to the Democrats. I'm paraphrasing her words here,

790
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,919
Speaker 10: but what do you think about that? Would a motion

791
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 10: to vacate just give all the power to hawking Jefferies?

792
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 11: Well, what I guess, because keep in mind what would happen.

793
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 11: Let's walk through it. I know this is inside baseball,

794
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 11: but that's what the show's about. Right, you file the motion,

795
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 11: you bring up the motion, there's immediately a motion to table.

796
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 11: That's not the substance of the motion. So you're not

797
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 11: voting right then to vacate the chair. You're voting to

798
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 11: delay indefinitely the vote to vacate the chair. That's a

799
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,760
Speaker 11: procedural motion. And every single Democrat could vote to either

800
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 11: table the motion or simply abstain. Under both of those circumstances,

801
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 11: the motion would fail and Kevin would still be the speaker,

802
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 11: and the Democrats could look themselves in the eye and

803
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 11: say they never voted for Kevin McCarthy for speaker. So

804
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 11: you have to sort of walk through the process. And

805
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 11: I think that's what Matt is Finally, realizing is that

806
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 11: this has been great to sort of get a lot

807
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 11: of attention, but if you want to kick the speaker out,

808
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 11: it can be really, really hard to do it. Don't

809
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 11: discount the fact that it's easy for the Democrats to say, Look,

810
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 11: I don't like Kevin McCarthy, but I don't think I

811
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 11: want to play to Matt Gates's hand and bring Congress

812
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 11: grinding to a halt. When we've got a forty five

813
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 11: day cr looming over our heads, why don't we deal

814
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 11: with funding the government and maybe later we can talk

815
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 11: about the speakership, But right now, the most important thing

816
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 11: is funding the government going forward.

817
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: Well, he says he's going to keep bringing them up.

818
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 1: If it fails, Mick, he's going to do it again

819
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 1: and again and again, maybe fifteen times, like we saw

820
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,240
Speaker 1: in the rounds of voting for Kevin McCarthy to become speaker.

821
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: Does that create fatigue each time he files this motion potentially,

822
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: or does it work to paralyze business in the House

823
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 1: while we're trying to figure out how to avoid a shutdown?

824
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 11: You know there's another possibility, which is it puts him

825
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 11: at great risk. Remember, in the background of all of

826
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 11: this is this ethics investigation that was started under the

827
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 11: Democrat leadership. And I will be the first to tell

828
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 11: you that ethics investigations are extremely politicized. As an extremely

829
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 11: low bar, it's easy sort to weaponize ethics investigations. But

830
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 11: there is an ethnics investigation going on right now against

831
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 11: Matt Gates, now led by the Republicans. If that committee

832
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 11: was to come back and find that in some type

833
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 11: of violation of the ethics rules, that could lead to

834
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 11: a motion to kick him out of Congress, it doesn't

835
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 11: seem like he's making very many friends if those if

836
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 11: there are Democrats who as saying that this is nothing

837
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 11: more than a pr stunt and that they don't want

838
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 11: to do anything to help Matt Gates, you can't imagine

839
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 11: that the Republicans a very interested in keeping him around

840
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 11: much either. So this could actually backfire on him if

841
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 11: the ethics investigation goes badly, I could get ugly quick.

842
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 10: Yeah, I am just anticipating more dramas if things weren't

843
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 10: already dramatic enough. Just as we reflect on this saga

844
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 10: between Matt Gates and Speaker Carthy that may or may

845
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 10: not end this week. Because even if he's dealt a blow.

846
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 10: He says, He'll continue to bring this up. How close

847
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 10: we got to the edge in terms of the government

848
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 10: shutting down? Is this house in order? Is this just

849
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 10: literally what you and me and Joe are going to

850
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 10: be talking about each and every week. A House of

851
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 10: Representatives that is barely functioning. I mean, do you see

852
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:22,720
Speaker 10: this changing?

853
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 11: It was always going to be tight anyway, Kayley, Right,

854
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 11: because the margins are so tight. Keep in mind that, right, Democrats,

855
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 11: only when Nancy Pelosi was in charge, she had a

856
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 11: very small margin, and she was only ever able to

857
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 11: pass things that had unanimous support because of it. Kevin

858
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 11: is in the same boat. He's only ever going to

859
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 11: be able to manage to pass anything that has unified

860
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 11: Republican support because any handful of his members could shiftwreck

861
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,479
Speaker 11: a piece of legislation. So my guess is the same

862
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 11: as it was in the previous Congress. The stuff that

863
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 11: has to get past is going to get passed. That

864
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 11: means the NBAA is going to get passed, the FAA

865
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 11: reauthorization is going to get passed, and the government's going

866
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 11: to get funded in one shape or another. I don't

867
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 11: think this is going to be a time we're talking

868
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 11: about far reaching legislation. We're talking about proactive type of things.

869
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 11: This is going to be sort of waiting to the

870
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 11: next election to see to see what the voters who

871
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 11: the voter sent to Washington.

872
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 1: Well, so what's your crystal ball, say Mick mulvany, November seventeenth,

873
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: does the government close or open?

874
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 11: You know what, I'm gun shy now because I got

875
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 11: this wrong. I guess I take something.

876
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 1: I don't blame you. I wouldn't answer any of my

877
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: questions either.

878
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 11: Yeah, I still think. I still think that it helps

879
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 11: Kevin a little bit with the extreme right wing of

880
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 11: his party. The freedom of cogguss people people like me. Okay,

881
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 11: if you shut if the government goes into shutdown for

882
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 11: a brief period of time, we don't like to hear

883
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 11: things like if we don't do this, people aren't going

884
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 11: to get paid. That's not factually accurate. If you close

885
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 11: until for more than fourteen days, people don't get paid.

886
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 11: But when you start using Democrat talking points to make

887
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 11: your argument, that can rub the right wing of the

888
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 11: party the wrong way. So I think, you know, Kevin

889
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,359
Speaker 11: lost more votes than he wanted to. He lost ninety

890
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 11: votes in the cr Keep in mind, it was an

891
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 11: easy note vote for a lot of people because I

892
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 11: knew it was going to pass. So I think Kevin's

893
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 11: got a little bit of work to do with his

894
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 11: right wing of his party. But I think he's got

895
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 11: forty five days to do it. I'm still putting the

896
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 11: chances to shut down above seventy five percent in mid November.

897
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: Whoa wow, And then we're going to roll into Thanksgiving

898
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 1: and it'll be weeks right, And if.

899
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,839
Speaker 10: That happens, Yeah, Merry Christmas to all and to all

900
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 10: a good night, Mack. I just had to smile to

901
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 10: myself a little bit when he's talked about Freedom Caucus

902
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,760
Speaker 10: people being like you. Do you really think they're still

903
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 10: like you? I heard a lot of talk on Capitol

904
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 10: Hill about these conservatives not voting for conservative policies.

905
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 2: Oh no, keep on.

906
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:42,240
Speaker 11: I think there's a new fact, there's a new faction

907
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 11: now that the anarchist wing is different than the Freedom

908
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 11: Coock ex fact, I don't even think Matt Gates is

909
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 11: in the Freedom Caucus. Of course they don't publish the list,

910
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 11: but you know, I saw Ken Buck the other day.

911
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 11: Ken's a member of the Freedom Coccers at least he

912
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 11: was when I was there. He's a very reasonable guy.

913
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 5: What did he say?

914
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 11: He said, Look, we need to pass these appropriation bills,

915
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 11: at least vote on them. And if we can vote

916
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 11: on all twelve, appropriation builds an I'll vote on a

917
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 11: CR That's a reasonable Conservative position to take, and it's

918
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 11: something that leadership can work with. Again, the Freedom Clarkers

919
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 11: were designed to be the Conservatives that would play play

920
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 11: hardball but could work with each other at everybody.

921
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 1: At the end of the.

922
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 11: Day, that group is still there, and that's the group

923
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 11: I think that Kevin, we'll be able to build some

924
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 11: build some capital with over the next couple of weeks.

925
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 1: Unreal. At least we know we're still alive here. It

926
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: reminds us that we're alive.

927
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 5: Man.

928
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: How about the sphere in Las Vegas? Are you going?

929
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 1: Did you see what that looked like over the weekend?

930
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 11: And I don't want you guys to talk it up

931
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 11: too much because I'm trying to get tickets in November

932
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 11: and that the sales out. I'm not even able to

933
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 11: do that, So I don't think anybody should.

934
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: All right, we'll meet you there. How about that? Mick

935
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 1: mulvaney we won't tell anyone. Boy, It's only Monday, Kaylee,

936
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to say here. I know

937
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: chaos Is that what you said? Chaos rains. I'm Joe

938
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 1: Matthew with Kaylee Lions in Washington. This is Bloomberg. Thanks

939
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 1: for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure to

940
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: subscribe if you haven't all read at Apple, Spotify and

941
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find

942
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:07,320
Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

943
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 1: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com