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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume
Speaker 1: heavy Thursday. Everybody hopeful if you guys are having a
Speaker 1: great week. We're continuing our series previews today with the
Speaker 1: Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rocket's going to be
Speaker 1: using the same format we'll go over the season series,
Speaker 1: the gambling odds right now, Warriors on offense, Rockets on offense,
Speaker 1: swing factors for the series, and then my pick at
Speaker 1: the tail end. You guys know the Joe before we
Speaker 1: get started. To subscribe to the Hoops to Night YouTube channels.
Speaker 1: You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
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Speaker 1: get your podcast uner Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful
Speaker 1: if you leave a rating in a review. On that front,
Speaker 1: we have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram,
Speaker 1: and Facebook where Jackson's doing incredible content throughout the year.
Speaker 1: Make sure you guys follow us there in the last
Speaker 1: pintal least, keep dropping mail bag questions and the YouTube
Speaker 1: comments we can keep get to them throughout the remainder
Speaker 1: of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So
Speaker 1: the season series for the Warriors and the Rockets. They
Speaker 1: played five times this year, thanks to the in season
Speaker 1: tournament giving them that extra game. The Warriors won the
Speaker 1: season series three to two. They are one in one
Speaker 1: in the Jimmy Butler era, most recently. The Rockets did
Speaker 1: beat the Warriors in the Bay and that was the
Speaker 1: game where they held Steph to three points, but that
Speaker 1: was their fourth game and sixth nights. I also rewatched
Speaker 1: that game again this morning and really was amazed by
Speaker 1: the difference in intensity between like the last two games
Speaker 1: I saw the Warriors play against the Clippers and the
Speaker 1: Grizzlies versus that game. So I don't think there's necessarily
Speaker 1: too much to take away from that one, But we'll
Speaker 1: get into some of those details as we get deeper
Speaker 1: into the show. So our odds, again, all of our
Speaker 1: odds are provided by DraftKings. As of Wednesday morning, the
Speaker 1: Warriors were a minus two hundred favorite. Feels about right.
Speaker 1: That's the third largest favorite out of the first round
Speaker 1: series that we have, the sixth series that we have,
Speaker 1: behind the Celtics series and the Knick series. Let's start
Speaker 1: with the Warriors on offense. This is going to be
Speaker 1: the focal point of the series because of the reputation
Speaker 1: that Houston has as a defensive team. It even feels
Speaker 1: like when you talk about the Rockets, their star power
Speaker 1: is their defensive talent. You hear more about Dylan Brooks
Speaker 1: in Amman Thompson than you do about Fred van Vliet
Speaker 1: and Alprin Shangun, the guys that are their primary shot creators. Right,
Speaker 1: the Rockets defense has had a great deal of success,
Speaker 1: specifically slowing down the Warriors offense. In their last four
Speaker 1: matchups this year, the Rockets held the Warriors to below
Speaker 1: one hundred points three times. They logged a one hundred
Speaker 1: defensive rating overall. Let's start with some matchups. The main
Speaker 1: schematic thing that Houston does in their starting group, at
Speaker 1: least in their man demand looks, is they put Alprin
Speaker 1: Shangun on Moses Moody. The reason why they do this
Speaker 1: is Moses Moody is the player that the Warriors least
Speaker 1: like to use in the starting lineup as a screener
Speaker 1: and as a guy who makes decisions out of those
Speaker 1: screening situations. He's the weakest read and react player among
Speaker 1: the starters. He's better than some of the guys they
Speaker 1: have on their bench, but among that starting group, he's
Speaker 1: the weakest player in that specific regard. So they prefer
Speaker 1: to keep him in the corner and not have him
Speaker 1: run too much in the way of action. And so
Speaker 1: if you do that against Shangoon, then you willow Shane
Speaker 1: Gooon to hide, and in their last matchup they did
Speaker 1: attack Shanggun less than they are capable of attacking gam
Speaker 1: especially early in the game. But that's the main schematic thing.
Speaker 1: They'll do. Shane Goun on Moses Moodie, and then they'll
Speaker 1: deploy their best three perimeter defenders on Steph, Jimmy and Draymond.
Speaker 1: So it'll be usually a Men Thompson on Steph and
Speaker 1: then either Brooks on Draymond or Fred van Vliet Draymond,
Speaker 1: with the other one on Jimmy Butler. And so then
Speaker 1: what they do is they have the ability to switch
Speaker 1: any screening action that involves Steph and Jimmy or Stephan Draymond,
Speaker 1: or Jimmy and Draymond right, they can switch any of
Speaker 1: those actions. And examples like the late gameplay against the
Speaker 1: Grizzlies last night, clutch time inverted ball screen, Jimmy's got
Speaker 1: the ball, Steph screens for Jimmy on his left side,
Speaker 1: Jimmy gets downhill, kicks it to Draymond, and Steph comes
Speaker 1: flying off of a handoff from Draymond in the left corner.
Speaker 1: That's an example of a play where the Grizzlies were
Speaker 1: not switching, so Scottie Pippen Junior had to chase Steph
Speaker 1: really difficult action to guard. He gets caught up, gives
Speaker 1: up a wide open three. The Rockets will just switch
Speaker 1: that action. They have the ability to switch most of
Speaker 1: the pet actions that the Warriors like to run. So
Speaker 1: that's essentially the problem, the natural actions that the Warriors
Speaker 1: like to run. Houston has the ability to shut down
Speaker 1: with quality switching as long as they execute it properly right.
Speaker 1: But there's still plenty of opportunities for Golden State to
Speaker 1: try to attack and get openings with that setup. So
Speaker 1: first of all, using Moody as a screener, it's a
Speaker 1: little complicated. Houston's drop coverage looks are better than most
Speaker 1: of the drop coverage looks you've seen in the league.
Speaker 1: These dudes stay attached on screening actions they chase over
Speaker 1: the top. They do not give up openings there. There
Speaker 1: was an early play in the Sunday game two weeks
Speaker 1: ago where Steph ran a ball screen with Moses Moody
Speaker 1: to try to go at Shangoon, and his defender just
Speaker 1: stayed attached through the entire I think it was a
Speaker 1: Men Thomson just stay attached through the entire action and
Speaker 1: there was just no opening there. And so that's part
Speaker 1: of it. Like, it's just not an action that Moses
Speaker 1: Moody is used to. He's not used to setting a
Speaker 1: bunch of on ball screens. It's just it's a little
Speaker 1: bit tougher of a situation for them to put the
Speaker 1: Warriors in. But there were openings, particularly with Pods. Pozemski
Speaker 1: is guarded by Jalen Green for the most part in
Speaker 1: this matchup, and he's the weakest perimeter defender in the
Speaker 1: Rockets rotation. They were able to get an open pick
Speaker 1: and pop three for Moses Moody with a basic screening
Speaker 1: action with Pods. Early in that game, Pods just threw
Speaker 1: a bad pass, But I do think that could be
Speaker 1: a useful second side action for them. You can imagine
Speaker 1: them doing Steph Jimmy Draymond stuff on the strong side,
Speaker 1: and then if the ball gets swung to the other side,
Speaker 1: you can have Pods run action with Moody to see
Speaker 1: if you can get an opening there. I also think
Speaker 1: because Houston's offense is so weak, the Warriors could potentially
Speaker 1: get away specifically in this matchup with weaker defensive personnel
Speaker 1: because of Houston's limitation, So like, could you get away
Speaker 1: with running Steph pods, Jimmy, Draymond and Buddy held in
Speaker 1: this series in a way that you might not be
Speaker 1: able to get away with it in a Clipper series,
Speaker 1: so that you can't hide shanng gun on Buddy heeld.
Speaker 1: If you hih shangoon on Buddy Heeled, you're gonna be
Speaker 1: in a situation where Buddy's hitting wide open catch and
Speaker 1: shoot threes. Right if you move shanggun on too Draymond
Speaker 1: or onto Jimmy, then all of a sudden, those pet
Speaker 1: actions that the Warriors like to run suddenly get opened up,
Speaker 1: and Draymond can set better screens to free up Steph
Speaker 1: and they can get into some of the similar sequences
Speaker 1: that their offense is most comfortable using. But I think
Speaker 1: that would be something that would be strictly in this series.
Speaker 1: I don't think you could get away with playing Buddy
Speaker 1: Heel big minutes with the starters unless it was in
Speaker 1: a series like this where they're not as worried about
Speaker 1: him getting capitalized on the on the other end of
Speaker 1: the floor. Now, obviously you're not going to be able
Speaker 1: to just spam Moses Moody action or spam you know something,
Speaker 1: to attack Alpern Shangun every single time down the floor.
Speaker 1: There's going to be situations where the Warriors are gonna
Speaker 1: need to confront Houston switching head on and generate quality shots.
Speaker 1: Right now, the Warriors have a very different approach to
Speaker 1: beating switching than most teams do. Most teams do it
Speaker 1: by hunting matchups right. They'll pick on the weakest defender
Speaker 1: and they'll get their best offensive player in a situation
Speaker 1: where they like the spacing around him, and they'll have
Speaker 1: that guy go one on one. That's not what the
Speaker 1: Warriors do. The Warriors attack switching with a ton of
Speaker 1: player movement and screening, essentially hoping that you'll make mistakes,
Speaker 1: like both of you will chase staff, or you'll give
Speaker 1: up inside position to Jimmy Butler for an easy over
Speaker 1: the top pass, or you'll lose somebody in rotation that
Speaker 1: they're looking for, putting you in the blender and you
Speaker 1: messing up your switches. And they did have some success
Speaker 1: in that game two Sundays ago. Even though Steph only
Speaker 1: had three points in that game, he did generate several
Speaker 1: baskets for his team just by running around in those
Speaker 1: sequences and forcing the Rockets to overplay him and leave
Speaker 1: some other guy open on a slip. But there's no
Speaker 1: doubt that this Rockets team can drag this Warriors offense
Speaker 1: down into the mud. That's their superpower. You want to
Speaker 1: know how the Rockets ended up with the two seed
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference with all those good teams because
Speaker 1: of what they can do on the defensive end of
Speaker 1: the flo The zone looks The Rockets ran zero possessions
Speaker 1: of zone for the first two thirds of the season,
Speaker 1: but they've run a ton of it here down the stretch.
Speaker 1: They r on several variations of it. They're all based
Speaker 1: on a two three. You'll see two big versions with
Speaker 1: Adams under underneath the basket and Shangoon in one of
Speaker 1: the corners. Adams is usually playing further back, very rim
Speaker 1: focused catches in the middle, he'll stunt, but he's not
Speaker 1: actually going to close out there, just basically saying you're
Speaker 1: gonna have to shoot over the top of us. It's
Speaker 1: a force sheet to make jump shots type of zone.
Speaker 1: You'll see a similar zone without Shanggoon, with just Adams
Speaker 1: out there. Very similar concept, and then they'll do one
Speaker 1: with Jabari Smith at junior more of a small ball
Speaker 1: look and he'll be more active. He'll show at the
Speaker 1: level he'll guard the man that catches in the middle
Speaker 1: of the floor. This is much more of an Amba
Speaker 1: type of zone, where more of a matchup zone where
Speaker 1: guys are moving around and occupying different spots. But they're
Speaker 1: very good at it. Despite only using it at the
Speaker 1: end of the season, the Rockets ended up blogging three
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy two possessions of zone on the season,
Speaker 1: which was fourth most in the entire NBA by total,
Speaker 1: and they allowed just zero point eighty to nine points
Speaker 1: per possession in those zone possessions, which was the third
Speaker 1: highest mark in the NBA in terms of holding holding
Speaker 1: offenses down with your zone defense. So they have a
Speaker 1: very good, very successful zone defense that I expect to
Speaker 1: be a real factor in this series. I expect to
Speaker 1: see a lot of zone potentially for both teams, as
Speaker 1: we'll discuss in a minute when we get to the
Speaker 1: Rockets on offense. Now, how can the Warriors beat the zone?
Speaker 1: The Warriors only face the Rockets zone for ten possessions
Speaker 1: in that game on Sunday, and then all of their
Speaker 1: previous matchups the Rockets weren't running any zone. So we
Speaker 1: only have ten possessions to look at. But it's worth
Speaker 1: mentioning that the Warriors only scored on that zone twice
Speaker 1: in ten possessions. Gary Payton semi contested three and a
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler semi contested three. They struggled specifically with getting
Speaker 1: the ball to the middle of the floor and that
Speaker 1: guy not looking to score, and when he wasn't looking
Speaker 1: to score, they were able to kind of stay home.
Speaker 1: And here's the thing. When you're going against a two
Speaker 1: to three zone, think of it in terms of of
Speaker 1: the geometry. If you can score in the middle of
Speaker 1: the floor, you can force the defense to collapse around you,
Speaker 1: and the spray outs are there, and the drop offs
Speaker 1: along the baseline are there. But if you can't show
Speaker 1: a willingness to score in the middle of the floor
Speaker 1: against his zone, it changes. It's not a two to
Speaker 1: three zone anymore. It's basically a four to one zone.
Speaker 1: If you've got a guy sitting right underneath the basket,
Speaker 1: you got a guy guarding the left corner, three, you
Speaker 1: got a guy guarding the right corner three, and you
Speaker 1: got two guys on the above the break threes, essentially
Speaker 1: four guys guarding the three point line and one guy
Speaker 1: directly under the basket. If you allow them to play
Speaker 1: defense like that, that's where you can end up in
Speaker 1: some real trouble against the Rocket zone. This is where
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler needs to do exactly what he did in
Speaker 1: these last two games, especially in the last game against
Speaker 1: Memphis Bigs. When Jimmy catches there in the middle of
Speaker 1: the floor, he needs to look to score, sometimes a floater,
Speaker 1: sometimes a little short mid range jump shot, a lot
Speaker 1: of those funky driving angles and awkward takeoff points that
Speaker 1: we talked about after the play in game, where Jimmy
Speaker 1: can draw fouls against some of the clumsy Bigs around
Speaker 1: the basket. Jimmy's going to be the key to breaking
Speaker 1: down that zone defense with his skills there in the
Speaker 1: middle of the floor. Also worth mentioning that the Rockets
Speaker 1: ran the majority of that zone during the lineups when
Speaker 1: Steph was off the floor in that one particular game.
Speaker 1: But I do think we'll probably see some zone even
Speaker 1: with Steph on the floor, at least a try to
Speaker 1: see if they can get some for some discomfort there,
Speaker 1: but Jimmy is a little hesitant, as we know, as
Speaker 1: a score from time to time, he has a tendency
Speaker 1: sometimes to catch in the middle of the floor and
Speaker 1: not look to score, just like they did in the
Speaker 1: last four matchups. I do think that this Rockets defense
Speaker 1: will drag this Warriors offense down into the mud. But
Speaker 1: there's another side to the ball, so let's move over
Speaker 1: to Rockets on offense. The Warriors also logged a one
Speaker 1: hundred defensive rating against Houston in their last four matchups,
Speaker 1: and I think they can do even better. Like I
Speaker 1: talked about, they cause a lot of problems for the
Speaker 1: Rockets offense in that game two Sundays ago, despite a
Speaker 1: really a gigantic drop off in Inten City compared to
Speaker 1: the two games that we most recently saw from the Warriors.
Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in this Warriors defense. I think
Speaker 1: their ability to swarm and to make teams feel uncomfortable,
Speaker 1: and to make role players rush and to play you
Speaker 1: into what makes you, to play you into what you
Speaker 1: don't want to do, has a real impact on these teams,
Speaker 1: and I think that they are capable of doing a
Speaker 1: lot of damage to this Rockets offense. The matchups, I
Speaker 1: think we'll see Draymond and alprinshangun, Moses Moody on Jalen Green,
Speaker 1: Brandon Pajemski on Fred Van Vlietz, Steph on Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 1: and Jimmy Butler on Amen Thompson. So let's talk about
Speaker 1: some things to look for with those particular matchups. One,
Speaker 1: Dylan Brooks did have some success attacking Steph in the
Speaker 1: post in their last matchup, but I think Houston leaning
Speaker 1: too far into that would be a mistake. He was
Speaker 1: taking turnaround fadeaways, particularly over his right shoulder. If he's
Speaker 1: not making at least forty five percent of those, that's
Speaker 1: a bad shot in a series like this. Shane Guon
Speaker 1: also had some success going one on one at Draymond
Speaker 1: in the game two Sundays ago. Again, there's some success there,
Speaker 1: but if he's not getting a bucket more than half
Speaker 1: the time, it's just not a good idea in a
Speaker 1: series like this. To attack Draymond Green, they need to
Speaker 1: find weaker points in the Warriors defense pick and roll
Speaker 1: in particular, to start with them attacking Draymond in pick
Speaker 1: and roll, the Warriors will run high drop with Draymond
Speaker 1: and Shangun action against friend Van Vliet and against Jalen Green.
Speaker 1: Any screening actions with the men Thompson and Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 1: Draymon's gonna sit way back. Draymond will come up to
Speaker 1: the level against Shangun what he was doing. They were
Speaker 1: having low man help, but Draymond was trying to disengage
Speaker 1: quickly off the pass and try to recover to Shanegoon
Speaker 1: at the rim. But they will mix in some switching,
Speaker 1: or they'll peel off if the guard just gets wiped
Speaker 1: out by a screen and Draymond will go with Fred,
Speaker 1: or Draymond will go with Jalen and Shane. Gun will
Speaker 1: have post mismatches against Smalls, and when he was going
Speaker 1: to those in that game, he was really really effective.
Speaker 1: So there will be opportunities for Shangun to attack mismatches.
Speaker 1: It just needs to be against the mismatches and not
Speaker 1: just going headlong against some of the best defenders that
Speaker 1: Golden State has. Jalen Green in his jump shot, He's
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get that pull up three off.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be able to get that pull up mid
Speaker 1: range shot off. His athleticism is a real advantage in
Speaker 1: a series like this, But he's a high variance player.
Speaker 1: Sometimes he's hitting his pull up jumper and he's getting
Speaker 1: to the rim and he's going off for thirty something points,
Speaker 1: and the Rockets are really tough to beat when that happens.
Speaker 1: The Rockets are thirteen and one this year when Jalen
Speaker 1: Green scores at least thirty points. But he'll also have
Speaker 1: games where the jumper isn't falling and he's over penetrating,
Speaker 1: and he's making bad decisions at the rim and missing
Speaker 1: layups and falling on the ground and leading to transition sequences,
Speaker 1: and you dooko, we'll just bail on him if that happens. Hey,
Speaker 1: I In fact, I think if you asked Emi Udoka,
Speaker 1: who's the five guys that you trust most to go
Speaker 1: down in this series, I think he'd say the starters.
Speaker 1: But I think he'd swap in Jabari Smith Junior for
Speaker 1: Jalen Green. Jabari is a more reliable, higher floor, lower
Speaker 1: ceiling type of player who can hit spot up threes,
Speaker 1: who can attack matchups from time to time. He had
Speaker 1: some success against smaller Warriors players this year, and he's
Speaker 1: a very gifted offensive rebounder. That adds to the physical
Speaker 1: element that this team brings. When it's a men Thompson
Speaker 1: and Alpern Shangoun and Jabari Smith Junior all on the
Speaker 1: floor together, this team can be really difficult to keep
Speaker 1: off of the offensive glass. And that's not even counting
Speaker 1: their bench groups when Steven Adams is out there. But
Speaker 1: the main problem for Houston, and the reason why I
Speaker 1: think the Warriors will eventually slow them down, is they
Speaker 1: just don't have enough shooting. You can load up on
Speaker 1: their better offensive players and tilt their offense towards catch
Speaker 1: and shoot threes for streaky shooters. The Rockets are bottom
Speaker 1: ten in both three pointers made and in three point
Speaker 1: percentage this year, and they finished the year twenty second
Speaker 1: in overall half court offense according to Cleaning the Glass.
Speaker 1: That's really what it comes down to for me. I
Speaker 1: just think any potential problem that Houston can present for
Speaker 1: Golden State's offense is an even bigger problem for Houston
Speaker 1: on the other end of the floor, even zone defense.
Speaker 1: The Warriors had a game against Houston back in February
Speaker 1: where they ran fifteen possessions of zone and allowed just
Speaker 1: three points total in fifteen possessions. Zero point two points
Speaker 1: per possession. So even zone I feel like would stand
Speaker 1: to damage Houston more than it would stand to hurt
Speaker 1: Golden State. So let's talk about some swing factors. Where
Speaker 1: could the series go off the rails for either team?
Speaker 1: Defense to transition. If the Warriors succumb to the ball
Speaker 1: pressure and the physicality and they start getting sloppy with
Speaker 1: the ball, Houston can get out and run on them,
Speaker 1: and they are a much more efficient transition offense than
Speaker 1: they are half court offense. In fact, I do think
Speaker 1: Houston will win a couple of games in this series
Speaker 1: in that fashion. I wouldn't be surprised if for one
Speaker 1: of the games, likely either Game one or Game five,
Speaker 1: if we saw Houston just beat the shit out of
Speaker 1: them because Golden State just lets go of the rope
Speaker 1: and saves their legs and their energy to try to
Speaker 1: win the next game. That is way or Houston will
Speaker 1: be successful. Defense to transition two, Jalen Green's pull up shooting.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, when Jalen Green has a scoring going,
Speaker 1: you lose to the Rockets thirteen and one. This year,
Speaker 1: When Jalen scores at least thirty points, even against good teams,
Speaker 1: Memphis lost like that, Minnesota lost like that, Denver lost
Speaker 1: like that, the Oklahoma City Thunder lost like that. My team,
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Lakers lost like that, the Clippers lost
Speaker 1: like that. All in those thirteen teams to lose to
Speaker 1: Jalen Green scoring at least thirty points, those teams were
Speaker 1: among the fallen. So that is a big swing factor
Speaker 1: in this series. If Jalen Green just comes out and
Speaker 1: has a great series, the Warriors could very easily lose. Now,
Speaker 1: for the record, I don't think that will happen. I
Speaker 1: think it's more likely that it goes the other way
Speaker 1: with Jalen Green, that he really struggles and makes some
Speaker 1: bad decisions and that email Udoka bails on him and
Speaker 1: he ends up having his minutes cut over the course
Speaker 1: of the series. That's what I think is going to happen.
Speaker 1: But the outcome of Jalen Green going off is always
Speaker 1: a possibility that we have to consider. And then lastly,
Speaker 1: rope jump shooting for both teams. A lot of catch
Speaker 1: and shoot threes in this series that both teams will
Speaker 1: kind of concede. For Houston, Dylan Brooks, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason,
Speaker 1: Aman Thompson for Golden State Moses Moody, Brandon Pajemski, Gary Payton,
Speaker 1: second Draymond Green. If one of those groups dramatically outshoots
Speaker 1: the other, it could swing this series. But that said,
Speaker 1: I do think that those shooters for Golden State are
Speaker 1: a little bit more reliable, and I think that Golden
Speaker 1: State will be able to do more damage than Houston
Speaker 1: can do. In return, I'm picking the Warriors in six games.
Speaker 1: I think they split in Houston, win both games back
Speaker 1: in Golden State, lose Game five, and then close it
Speaker 1: out at home. If I had to guess the pathway
Speaker 1: of the series, but I think the Warriors are going
Speaker 1: to win six games. I think there will be parts
Speaker 1: of the series where Houston goes on crazy runs fueled
Speaker 1: by defense and forcing turnovers and getting out in transition.
Speaker 1: But outside of those runs, I think the Warriors are
Speaker 1: going to methodically out execute them in the half court.
Speaker 1: I think this defense is really special, and I think
Speaker 1: they'll eventually strangle the life out of Houston and take
Speaker 1: care of business. All right, guys, That's all I have
Speaker 1: for today is always sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting
Speaker 1: me and supporting the show. I'll see you guys next time.
Speaker 1: What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening
Speaker 1: to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really
Speaker 1: helpful for us if you guys would take a second
Speaker 1: and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
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