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For additional terms 33 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio. 34 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume 35 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: heavy Thursday. Everybody hopeful if you guys are having a 36 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: great week. We're continuing our series previews today with the 37 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rocket's going to be 38 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 1: using the same format we'll go over the season series, 39 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: the gambling odds right now, Warriors on offense, Rockets on offense, 40 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: swing factors for the series, and then my pick at 41 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: the tail end. You guys know the Joe before we 42 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: get started. To subscribe to the Hoops to Night YouTube channels. 43 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me 44 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys don't miss 45 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 1: you announcements. Don't forget about a podcast feed where we 46 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: get your podcast uner Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful 47 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: if you leave a rating in a review. On that front, 48 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: we have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, 49 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: and Facebook where Jackson's doing incredible content throughout the year. 50 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: Make sure you guys follow us there in the last 51 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 1: pintal least, keep dropping mail bag questions and the YouTube 52 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: comments we can keep get to them throughout the remainder 53 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So 54 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: the season series for the Warriors and the Rockets. They 55 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: played five times this year, thanks to the in season 56 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: tournament giving them that extra game. The Warriors won the 57 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,119 Speaker 1: season series three to two. They are one in one 58 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: in the Jimmy Butler era, most recently. The Rockets did 59 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: beat the Warriors in the Bay and that was the 60 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: game where they held Steph to three points, but that 61 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 1: was their fourth game and sixth nights. I also rewatched 62 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: that game again this morning and really was amazed by 63 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 1: the difference in intensity between like the last two games 64 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: I saw the Warriors play against the Clippers and the 65 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: Grizzlies versus that game. So I don't think there's necessarily 66 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 1: too much to take away from that one, But we'll 67 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: get into some of those details as we get deeper 68 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 1: into the show. So our odds, again, all of our 69 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: odds are provided by DraftKings. As of Wednesday morning, the 70 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: Warriors were a minus two hundred favorite. Feels about right. 71 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: That's the third largest favorite out of the first round 72 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: series that we have, the sixth series that we have, 73 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: behind the Celtics series and the Knick series. Let's start 74 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: with the Warriors on offense. This is going to be 75 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: the focal point of the series because of the reputation 76 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: that Houston has as a defensive team. It even feels 77 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: like when you talk about the Rockets, their star power 78 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: is their defensive talent. You hear more about Dylan Brooks 79 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: in Amman Thompson than you do about Fred van Vliet 80 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: and Alprin Shangun, the guys that are their primary shot creators. Right, 81 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: the Rockets defense has had a great deal of success, 82 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: specifically slowing down the Warriors offense. In their last four 83 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: matchups this year, the Rockets held the Warriors to below 84 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 1: one hundred points three times. They logged a one hundred 85 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: defensive rating overall. Let's start with some matchups. The main 86 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: schematic thing that Houston does in their starting group, at 87 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: least in their man demand looks, is they put Alprin 88 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 1: Shangun on Moses Moody. The reason why they do this 89 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: is Moses Moody is the player that the Warriors least 90 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: like to use in the starting lineup as a screener 91 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: and as a guy who makes decisions out of those 92 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: screening situations. He's the weakest read and react player among 93 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: the starters. He's better than some of the guys they 94 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: have on their bench, but among that starting group, he's 95 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 1: the weakest player in that specific regard. So they prefer 96 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: to keep him in the corner and not have him 97 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: run too much in the way of action. And so 98 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: if you do that against Shangoon, then you willow Shane 99 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: Gooon to hide, and in their last matchup they did 100 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: attack Shanggun less than they are capable of attacking gam 101 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: especially early in the game. But that's the main schematic thing. 102 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: They'll do. Shane Goun on Moses Moodie, and then they'll 103 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: deploy their best three perimeter defenders on Steph, Jimmy and Draymond. 104 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: So it'll be usually a Men Thompson on Steph and 105 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: then either Brooks on Draymond or Fred van Vliet Draymond, 106 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 1: with the other one on Jimmy Butler. And so then 107 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: what they do is they have the ability to switch 108 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: any screening action that involves Steph and Jimmy or Stephan Draymond, 109 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: or Jimmy and Draymond right, they can switch any of 110 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 1: those actions. And examples like the late gameplay against the 111 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: Grizzlies last night, clutch time inverted ball screen, Jimmy's got 112 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 1: the ball, Steph screens for Jimmy on his left side, 113 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: Jimmy gets downhill, kicks it to Draymond, and Steph comes 114 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: flying off of a handoff from Draymond in the left corner. 115 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: That's an example of a play where the Grizzlies were 116 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: not switching, so Scottie Pippen Junior had to chase Steph 117 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: really difficult action to guard. He gets caught up, gives 118 00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: up a wide open three. The Rockets will just switch 119 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: that action. They have the ability to switch most of 120 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: the pet actions that the Warriors like to run. So 121 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: that's essentially the problem, the natural actions that the Warriors 122 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: like to run. Houston has the ability to shut down 123 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: with quality switching as long as they execute it properly right. 124 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 1: But there's still plenty of opportunities for Golden State to 125 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: try to attack and get openings with that setup. So 126 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: first of all, using Moody as a screener, it's a 127 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: little complicated. Houston's drop coverage looks are better than most 128 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: of the drop coverage looks you've seen in the league. 129 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: These dudes stay attached on screening actions they chase over 130 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: the top. They do not give up openings there. There 131 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: was an early play in the Sunday game two weeks 132 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: ago where Steph ran a ball screen with Moses Moody 133 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: to try to go at Shangoon, and his defender just 134 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: stayed attached through the entire I think it was a 135 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 1: Men Thomson just stay attached through the entire action and 136 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 1: there was just no opening there. And so that's part 137 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: of it. Like, it's just not an action that Moses 138 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: Moody is used to. He's not used to setting a 139 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 1: bunch of on ball screens. It's just it's a little 140 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: bit tougher of a situation for them to put the 141 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: Warriors in. But there were openings, particularly with Pods. Pozemski 142 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: is guarded by Jalen Green for the most part in 143 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: this matchup, and he's the weakest perimeter defender in the 144 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: Rockets rotation. They were able to get an open pick 145 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: and pop three for Moses Moody with a basic screening 146 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: action with Pods. Early in that game, Pods just threw 147 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: a bad pass, But I do think that could be 148 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: a useful second side action for them. You can imagine 149 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: them doing Steph Jimmy Draymond stuff on the strong side, 150 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: and then if the ball gets swung to the other side, 151 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: you can have Pods run action with Moody to see 152 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: if you can get an opening there. I also think 153 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: because Houston's offense is so weak, the Warriors could potentially 154 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: get away specifically in this matchup with weaker defensive personnel 155 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: because of Houston's limitation, So like, could you get away 156 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: with running Steph pods, Jimmy, Draymond and Buddy held in 157 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: this series in a way that you might not be 158 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,119 Speaker 1: able to get away with it in a Clipper series, 159 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 1: so that you can't hide shanng gun on Buddy heeld. 160 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: If you hih shangoon on Buddy Heeled, you're gonna be 161 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: in a situation where Buddy's hitting wide open catch and 162 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: shoot threes. Right if you move shanggun on too Draymond 163 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: or onto Jimmy, then all of a sudden, those pet 164 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: actions that the Warriors like to run suddenly get opened up, 165 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: and Draymond can set better screens to free up Steph 166 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: and they can get into some of the similar sequences 167 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: that their offense is most comfortable using. But I think 168 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: that would be something that would be strictly in this series. 169 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: I don't think you could get away with playing Buddy 170 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: Heel big minutes with the starters unless it was in 171 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: a series like this where they're not as worried about 172 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: him getting capitalized on the on the other end of 173 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: the floor. Now, obviously you're not going to be able 174 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: to just spam Moses Moody action or spam you know something, 175 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: to attack Alpern Shangun every single time down the floor. 176 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: There's going to be situations where the Warriors are gonna 177 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: need to confront Houston switching head on and generate quality shots. 178 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: Right now, the Warriors have a very different approach to 179 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: beating switching than most teams do. Most teams do it 180 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 1: by hunting matchups right. They'll pick on the weakest defender 181 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: and they'll get their best offensive player in a situation 182 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: where they like the spacing around him, and they'll have 183 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: that guy go one on one. That's not what the 184 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: Warriors do. The Warriors attack switching with a ton of 185 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: player movement and screening, essentially hoping that you'll make mistakes, 186 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: like both of you will chase staff, or you'll give 187 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: up inside position to Jimmy Butler for an easy over 188 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 1: the top pass, or you'll lose somebody in rotation that 189 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: they're looking for, putting you in the blender and you 190 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: messing up your switches. And they did have some success 191 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: in that game two Sundays ago. Even though Steph only 192 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: had three points in that game, he did generate several 193 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: baskets for his team just by running around in those 194 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: sequences and forcing the Rockets to overplay him and leave 195 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: some other guy open on a slip. But there's no 196 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: doubt that this Rockets team can drag this Warriors offense 197 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: down into the mud. That's their superpower. You want to 198 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: know how the Rockets ended up with the two seed 199 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 1: in the Western Conference with all those good teams because 200 00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: of what they can do on the defensive end of 201 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: the flo The zone looks The Rockets ran zero possessions 202 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: of zone for the first two thirds of the season, 203 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: but they've run a ton of it here down the stretch. 204 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: They r on several variations of it. They're all based 205 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: on a two three. You'll see two big versions with 206 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: Adams under underneath the basket and Shangoon in one of 207 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: the corners. Adams is usually playing further back, very rim 208 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 1: focused catches in the middle, he'll stunt, but he's not 209 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 1: actually going to close out there, just basically saying you're 210 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: gonna have to shoot over the top of us. It's 211 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 1: a force sheet to make jump shots type of zone. 212 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: You'll see a similar zone without Shanggoon, with just Adams 213 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: out there. Very similar concept, and then they'll do one 214 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 1: with Jabari Smith at junior more of a small ball 215 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 1: look and he'll be more active. He'll show at the 216 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: level he'll guard the man that catches in the middle 217 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: of the floor. This is much more of an Amba 218 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: type of zone, where more of a matchup zone where 219 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: guys are moving around and occupying different spots. But they're 220 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: very good at it. Despite only using it at the 221 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: end of the season, the Rockets ended up blogging three 222 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy two possessions of zone on the season, 223 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: which was fourth most in the entire NBA by total, 224 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: and they allowed just zero point eighty to nine points 225 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: per possession in those zone possessions, which was the third 226 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: highest mark in the NBA in terms of holding holding 227 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: offenses down with your zone defense. So they have a 228 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: very good, very successful zone defense that I expect to 229 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: be a real factor in this series. I expect to 230 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: see a lot of zone potentially for both teams, as 231 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: we'll discuss in a minute when we get to the 232 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 1: Rockets on offense. Now, how can the Warriors beat the zone? 233 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,599 Speaker 1: The Warriors only face the Rockets zone for ten possessions 234 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: in that game on Sunday, and then all of their 235 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 1: previous matchups the Rockets weren't running any zone. So we 236 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: only have ten possessions to look at. But it's worth 237 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: mentioning that the Warriors only scored on that zone twice 238 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: in ten possessions. Gary Payton semi contested three and a 239 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler semi contested three. They struggled specifically with getting 240 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: the ball to the middle of the floor and that 241 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 1: guy not looking to score, and when he wasn't looking 242 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: to score, they were able to kind of stay home. 243 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 1: And here's the thing. When you're going against a two 244 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 1: to three zone, think of it in terms of of 245 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: the geometry. If you can score in the middle of 246 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: the floor, you can force the defense to collapse around you, 247 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: and the spray outs are there, and the drop offs 248 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: along the baseline are there. But if you can't show 249 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: a willingness to score in the middle of the floor 250 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: against his zone, it changes. It's not a two to 251 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: three zone anymore. It's basically a four to one zone. 252 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 1: If you've got a guy sitting right underneath the basket, 253 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: you got a guy guarding the left corner, three, you 254 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: got a guy guarding the right corner three, and you 255 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: got two guys on the above the break threes, essentially 256 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: four guys guarding the three point line and one guy 257 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: directly under the basket. If you allow them to play 258 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: defense like that, that's where you can end up in 259 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 1: some real trouble against the Rocket zone. This is where 260 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler needs to do exactly what he did in 261 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 1: these last two games, especially in the last game against 262 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,839 Speaker 1: Memphis Bigs. When Jimmy catches there in the middle of 263 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: the floor, he needs to look to score, sometimes a floater, 264 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: sometimes a little short mid range jump shot, a lot 265 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: of those funky driving angles and awkward takeoff points that 266 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: we talked about after the play in game, where Jimmy 267 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: can draw fouls against some of the clumsy Bigs around 268 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 1: the basket. Jimmy's going to be the key to breaking 269 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 1: down that zone defense with his skills there in the 270 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: middle of the floor. Also worth mentioning that the Rockets 271 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: ran the majority of that zone during the lineups when 272 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: Steph was off the floor in that one particular game. 273 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 1: But I do think we'll probably see some zone even 274 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: with Steph on the floor, at least a try to 275 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: see if they can get some for some discomfort there, 276 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: but Jimmy is a little hesitant, as we know, as 277 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: a score from time to time, he has a tendency 278 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,319 Speaker 1: sometimes to catch in the middle of the floor and 279 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,599 Speaker 1: not look to score, just like they did in the 280 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 1: last four matchups. I do think that this Rockets defense 281 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: will drag this Warriors offense down into the mud. But 282 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 1: there's another side to the ball, so let's move over 283 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: to Rockets on offense. The Warriors also logged a one 284 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 1: hundred defensive rating against Houston in their last four matchups, 285 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: and I think they can do even better. Like I 286 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: talked about, they cause a lot of problems for the 287 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,959 Speaker 1: Rockets offense in that game two Sundays ago, despite a 288 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: really a gigantic drop off in Inten City compared to 289 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: the two games that we most recently saw from the Warriors. 290 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in this Warriors defense. I think 291 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: their ability to swarm and to make teams feel uncomfortable, 292 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: and to make role players rush and to play you 293 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: into what makes you, to play you into what you 294 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 1: don't want to do, has a real impact on these teams, 295 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 1: and I think that they are capable of doing a 296 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: lot of damage to this Rockets offense. The matchups, I 297 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: think we'll see Draymond and alprinshangun, Moses Moody on Jalen Green, 298 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: Brandon Pajemski on Fred Van Vlietz, Steph on Dylan Brooks, 299 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 1: and Jimmy Butler on Amen Thompson. So let's talk about 300 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: some things to look for with those particular matchups. One, 301 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: Dylan Brooks did have some success attacking Steph in the 302 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: post in their last matchup, but I think Houston leaning 303 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: too far into that would be a mistake. He was 304 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: taking turnaround fadeaways, particularly over his right shoulder. If he's 305 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: not making at least forty five percent of those, that's 306 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: a bad shot in a series like this. Shane Guon 307 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: also had some success going one on one at Draymond 308 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: in the game two Sundays ago. Again, there's some success there, 309 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: but if he's not getting a bucket more than half 310 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: the time, it's just not a good idea in a 311 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: series like this. To attack Draymond Green, they need to 312 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: find weaker points in the Warriors defense pick and roll 313 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: in particular, to start with them attacking Draymond in pick 314 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: and roll, the Warriors will run high drop with Draymond 315 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: and Shangun action against friend Van Vliet and against Jalen Green. 316 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: Any screening actions with the men Thompson and Dylan Brooks, 317 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: Draymon's gonna sit way back. Draymond will come up to 318 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: the level against Shangun what he was doing. They were 319 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: having low man help, but Draymond was trying to disengage 320 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: quickly off the pass and try to recover to Shanegoon 321 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: at the rim. But they will mix in some switching, 322 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: or they'll peel off if the guard just gets wiped 323 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: out by a screen and Draymond will go with Fred, 324 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: or Draymond will go with Jalen and Shane. Gun will 325 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: have post mismatches against Smalls, and when he was going 326 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: to those in that game, he was really really effective. 327 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: So there will be opportunities for Shangun to attack mismatches. 328 00:15:57,920 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: It just needs to be against the mismatches and not 329 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: just going headlong against some of the best defenders that 330 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: Golden State has. Jalen Green in his jump shot, He's 331 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: gonna be able to get that pull up three off. 332 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: He's gonna be able to get that pull up mid 333 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: range shot off. His athleticism is a real advantage in 334 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: a series like this, But he's a high variance player. 335 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: Sometimes he's hitting his pull up jumper and he's getting 336 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: to the rim and he's going off for thirty something points, 337 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: and the Rockets are really tough to beat when that happens. 338 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: The Rockets are thirteen and one this year when Jalen 339 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: Green scores at least thirty points. But he'll also have 340 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: games where the jumper isn't falling and he's over penetrating, 341 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 1: and he's making bad decisions at the rim and missing 342 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: layups and falling on the ground and leading to transition sequences, 343 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: and you dooko, we'll just bail on him if that happens. Hey, 344 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: I In fact, I think if you asked Emi Udoka, 345 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 1: who's the five guys that you trust most to go 346 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: down in this series, I think he'd say the starters. 347 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: But I think he'd swap in Jabari Smith Junior for 348 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: Jalen Green. Jabari is a more reliable, higher floor, lower 349 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: ceiling type of player who can hit spot up threes, 350 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: who can attack matchups from time to time. He had 351 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 1: some success against smaller Warriors players this year, and he's 352 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: a very gifted offensive rebounder. That adds to the physical 353 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: element that this team brings. When it's a men Thompson 354 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,439 Speaker 1: and Alpern Shangoun and Jabari Smith Junior all on the 355 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: floor together, this team can be really difficult to keep 356 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: off of the offensive glass. And that's not even counting 357 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: their bench groups when Steven Adams is out there. But 358 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: the main problem for Houston, and the reason why I 359 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: think the Warriors will eventually slow them down, is they 360 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 1: just don't have enough shooting. You can load up on 361 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: their better offensive players and tilt their offense towards catch 362 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: and shoot threes for streaky shooters. The Rockets are bottom 363 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 1: ten in both three pointers made and in three point 364 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 1: percentage this year, and they finished the year twenty second 365 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 1: in overall half court offense according to Cleaning the Glass. 366 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: That's really what it comes down to for me. I 367 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: just think any potential problem that Houston can present for 368 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: Golden State's offense is an even bigger problem for Houston 369 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: on the other end of the floor, even zone defense. 370 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 1: The Warriors had a game against Houston back in February 371 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: where they ran fifteen possessions of zone and allowed just 372 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: three points total in fifteen possessions. Zero point two points 373 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: per possession. So even zone I feel like would stand 374 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 1: to damage Houston more than it would stand to hurt 375 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 1: Golden State. So let's talk about some swing factors. Where 376 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: could the series go off the rails for either team? 377 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: Defense to transition. If the Warriors succumb to the ball 378 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: pressure and the physicality and they start getting sloppy with 379 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 1: the ball, Houston can get out and run on them, 380 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: and they are a much more efficient transition offense than 381 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: they are half court offense. In fact, I do think 382 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: Houston will win a couple of games in this series 383 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: in that fashion. I wouldn't be surprised if for one 384 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: of the games, likely either Game one or Game five, 385 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 1: if we saw Houston just beat the shit out of 386 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 1: them because Golden State just lets go of the rope 387 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: and saves their legs and their energy to try to 388 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: win the next game. That is way or Houston will 389 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: be successful. Defense to transition two, Jalen Green's pull up shooting. 390 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, when Jalen Green has a scoring going, 391 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,719 Speaker 1: you lose to the Rockets thirteen and one. This year, 392 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 1: When Jalen scores at least thirty points, even against good teams, 393 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: Memphis lost like that, Minnesota lost like that, Denver lost 394 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: like that, the Oklahoma City Thunder lost like that. My team, 395 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Lakers lost like that, the Clippers lost 396 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 1: like that. All in those thirteen teams to lose to 397 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,360 Speaker 1: Jalen Green scoring at least thirty points, those teams were 398 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: among the fallen. So that is a big swing factor 399 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 1: in this series. If Jalen Green just comes out and 400 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: has a great series, the Warriors could very easily lose. Now, 401 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 1: for the record, I don't think that will happen. I 402 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: think it's more likely that it goes the other way 403 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: with Jalen Green, that he really struggles and makes some 404 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: bad decisions and that email Udoka bails on him and 405 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: he ends up having his minutes cut over the course 406 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 1: of the series. That's what I think is going to happen. 407 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: But the outcome of Jalen Green going off is always 408 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: a possibility that we have to consider. And then lastly, 409 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: rope jump shooting for both teams. A lot of catch 410 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 1: and shoot threes in this series that both teams will 411 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:11,400 Speaker 1: kind of concede. For Houston, Dylan Brooks, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, 412 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: Aman Thompson for Golden State Moses Moody, Brandon Pajemski, Gary Payton, 413 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 1: second Draymond Green. If one of those groups dramatically outshoots 414 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 1: the other, it could swing this series. But that said, 415 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: I do think that those shooters for Golden State are 416 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 1: a little bit more reliable, and I think that Golden 417 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: State will be able to do more damage than Houston 418 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 1: can do. In return, I'm picking the Warriors in six games. 419 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 1: I think they split in Houston, win both games back 420 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: in Golden State, lose Game five, and then close it 421 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: out at home. If I had to guess the pathway 422 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 1: of the series, but I think the Warriors are going 423 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,160 Speaker 1: to win six games. I think there will be parts 424 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: of the series where Houston goes on crazy runs fueled 425 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 1: by defense and forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. 426 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 1: But outside of those runs, I think the Warriors are 427 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 1: going to methodically out execute them in the half court. 428 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,199 Speaker 1: I think this defense is really special, and I think 429 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: they'll eventually strangle the life out of Houston and take 430 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 1: care of business. All right, guys, That's all I have 431 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: for today is always sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting 432 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: me and supporting the show. I'll see you guys next time. 433 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 1: What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening 434 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 1: to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really 435 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: helpful for us if you guys would take a second 436 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: and leave a rating and a review. As always, I 437 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 1: appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take 438 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The 439 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: volume