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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find a Bloomberg Markets podcast

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Speaker 1: called Apple Podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. For now, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the bond story, because you are seeing a really

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Speaker 1: massive historic moment here city coming out in this morning,

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Speaker 1: adding to the to the talk about a hundred basis

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Speaker 1: points in these next two weeks. Nomura coming out of

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Speaker 1: course yesterday saying hundred is down there base case scenario.

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Speaker 1: What does that mean for investing? Well, let's bring in

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Speaker 1: Aaron Brown, the managing director and portfolio manager over at Pimco,

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Speaker 1: of course, to bring a talk about all things macro

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Speaker 1: strategy and investing. Aaron, thank you as always for joining us.

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Speaker 1: A hundred basis points, how effective is that really relative

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Speaker 1: to seventy five basis points? Is there an element perhaps

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Speaker 1: of almost panics that comes with the facts of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve may have to be that aggressive, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think that just given the inflation environment, that we're

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Speaker 1: in right now. I don't think one hundred basis points

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Speaker 1: should be considered a panicked you know raise. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: if you look at what the fixed income pricing market

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Speaker 1: is pricing in, there pricing in about nine two basis points.

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Speaker 1: So the fixed income markets are ready pretty much priced

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Speaker 1: in a hundred basis point move at the July f

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Speaker 1: on C meeting, which is a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: gift to the FED because they're not going to surprise

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Speaker 1: markets if they do, in fact, hike one hundred basis points.

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Speaker 1: I also think that the market right now is really

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Speaker 1: focused on getting inflation down so well, you know, certainly

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Speaker 1: in a normal environment, a hundred basis points would be

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Speaker 1: a shock to markets. Given the inflation environment we are

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Speaker 1: in right now, I think that's taking precedence over the

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Speaker 1: size of the move. That said, you really have to

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Speaker 1: think about whether or not it's going to be that effective,

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Speaker 1: especially over the short for managing inflation lower. Absolutely, especially um,

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Speaker 1: if the problem is on the supply side. Um, there's

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Speaker 1: not much of the FED can do. However, you make

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Speaker 1: a good point. Everybody is freaking out about the possibility

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Speaker 1: of a hundred basis points, and even some of our

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Speaker 1: writers this morning, we're calling it an historic rise. But

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Speaker 1: the bottom line is, if you look back in history,

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Speaker 1: the FED has raised rates by one percent or more

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Speaker 1: thirty eight times since nineteen seventies. So it's not as

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Speaker 1: if it's a completely new move, right. I mean, we've

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Speaker 1: seen Paul Volker do it at five percent in one clip, right,

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Speaker 1: That's exactly right. So we have to put this in

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Speaker 1: a longer term context. Certainly, over the last a couple

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Speaker 1: of decades we haven't seen moves in this size, but

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Speaker 1: if you go back overall longer window, we have, and

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Speaker 1: we've also been in an inflation environment that's also unprecedented.

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Speaker 1: So I think that right now the main focus of

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Speaker 1: the FED is getting inflation lower and and doing what

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Speaker 1: it takes in order to manage that that number, you know,

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Speaker 1: to something closer to where they're comfortable. Okay, but let

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Speaker 1: me let me put a counter point to Matt here. Yes,

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Speaker 1: thirty eight times, a lot of them were throughout the

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Speaker 1: eighties and the vulgar era. But isn't that that's the

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Speaker 1: last time we had inflation this high? Right? But it

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Speaker 1: isn't isn't the fear here, It's not just the fact

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Speaker 1: that Vulgar hiked so aggressively they basically forced the entire

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Speaker 1: economy into recession. It's also the idea that after this

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Speaker 1: decade of the seventies of inflation, you have this mazed,

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Speaker 1: massive deflationary spiral. So Aaron I have to ask, is

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Speaker 1: that what we're in store for next? I think that

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Speaker 1: what we're likely in store for next is not a

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Speaker 1: deflationary spiral, but going back to and probably where the

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Speaker 1: comfort is is going back to a two to three

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Speaker 1: percent or even two to four percent band for inflation. Um.

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Speaker 1: But I do think that there has been a fundamental

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Speaker 1: shift over the last couple of years where we're likely

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Speaker 1: not going back to the normal that we were in

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Speaker 1: in the sort of pre pandemic period, but probably a

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Speaker 1: higher normal than what we've been in over the last

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Speaker 1: ten years with respect to inflation. And I think that

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Speaker 1: that's okay for the FED. I mean, if anything, they

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Speaker 1: they're managing to average inflation a little bit higher over

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Speaker 1: the secular horizon. But um, you know, going back to

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Speaker 1: sort of a disinflationary or deflationary environment I think is

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Speaker 1: for for at least over the medium term, is off

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Speaker 1: the table. Yeah, I don't think we're getting set up

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Speaker 1: for another if we are signed me up, because that

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Speaker 1: wasn't really a bad economic situation in terms of what

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Speaker 1: you're buying right now. Um, where do you like, where

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Speaker 1: the most? Where's the most opportunity on the curve? Gary

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Speaker 1: Shilling was in here the other day says he's going

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Speaker 1: along thirty years. That's no surprise, Yeah, And I actually

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Speaker 1: don't disagree with that. I mean, I think that there

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Speaker 1: is fundamental demand um for thirty years, you know, from

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Speaker 1: pension funds and from insurance funds that look at the

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Speaker 1: US relative to other markets globally and find an attractive yield.

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Speaker 1: And I think buying the long end at this point

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Speaker 1: also just in a longer term context, makes a lot

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Speaker 1: of sense with respect to the fact that you know,

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Speaker 1: three percent if you're guaranteed yield and return is pretty attractive.

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Speaker 1: In this environment, it's gonna be you're hard pressed to

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Speaker 1: get that, you know, in risk assets right now. I

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Speaker 1: also think that Muni's offer from a taxable basis offer

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Speaker 1: really attractive returns as well. So that's another sort of

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Speaker 1: pocket of opportunity that investors should be looking at all. Right, Aaron,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Pleasure having you on

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Speaker 1: the program today. Aaron Brown there, managing director and portfolio

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Speaker 1: manager at PIMCO. We'll stick with this market story here

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Speaker 1: because stocks are just plummeting. It is not a pretty picture.

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Speaker 1: Uh in the markets today down two percent. I wonder

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Speaker 1: if we see a reversal even though there is this

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Speaker 1: really massive wall of worry. You've got pp I prices

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Speaker 1: that were at an eleven handle following the CPI report

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Speaker 1: at nine. Do you have recession odds a hundred basis

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Speaker 1: point hikes that are now the base case for Nomurra

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Speaker 1: and city. And on top of that, you now have

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Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond and James Gorman warning about recession remembers. These

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Speaker 1: were two of the people who were so confident in

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Speaker 1: consumer strength and now it kind of looks like they're saying, well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that whole recession scenario, there may be something to that.

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Speaker 1: So how do you play the markets amid this wall

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Speaker 1: of worry? We're gonna ask Brett Ewing, the chief market

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Speaker 1: strategist at First Franklin Financial Services. Brett, thank you as

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Speaker 1: always for joining. Let's start there a wall of worry.

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Speaker 1: Do you hop into this market or not? Well, thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me on UM, look the times to get

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Speaker 1: out there and start put in some capital work, or

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Speaker 1: when times where you have pete worry, and we're certainly

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Speaker 1: in those times. Um, we're the economy is likely in

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Speaker 1: a recession. UM. I think that the rate hikes are

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Speaker 1: certainly getting baked in here for consecutive one percent, probably

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Speaker 1: another fifty to seventy five and September. But the way

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Speaker 1: we're looking at markets, UM, the question is not when

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Speaker 1: we go in recession, it's just how deep it's going

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Speaker 1: to be. And we do believe that it will be

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Speaker 1: a fairly light recession. But we think that we are

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Speaker 1: currently in one, if not soon. We were talking with

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Speaker 1: Gary Shilling, who is granted UM well known bear yesterday

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Speaker 1: on the program. He says we're about halfway there in

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Speaker 1: terms of the market draw down, to use a term

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Speaker 1: of our day. We've heard similar things from Michael Urry,

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Speaker 1: who also is obviously known for his barish calls. But

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Speaker 1: what do you think about that, the fact that we've

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Speaker 1: seen valuation compression in the first half and now we're

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Speaker 1: about to see the margin compressions. Yeah, I think the

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Speaker 1: question is the real question is does inflation keep accelerating? UM?

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to force the hand. I think

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Speaker 1: the FED has already done their job. We're going to

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Speaker 1: see a lot of demand destruction on the second half

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Speaker 1: of this year. Um, we're already seeing it across the board.

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Speaker 1: The commodity markets are showing it. So, you know, I think,

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Speaker 1: have we hit a bottom in the market. I don't

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Speaker 1: think that that's our primary issue here. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's got a massive leg down from here. I would

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Speaker 1: say that we could go another five to ten percent

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Speaker 1: right here, depending on the inflation numbers and how much

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Speaker 1: more aggressive the FED would need to get. But isn't

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Speaker 1: there a bull ace here for the stock market in

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Speaker 1: that if there is a global recession? Isn't the recessionary

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Speaker 1: playbook at least and I want to say, in the

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Speaker 1: past twenty years or so, to hop right back into

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Speaker 1: American markets, you buy American buy the dollar, buy US treasuries,

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Speaker 1: by a defensive stocks, big tech. I feel like there

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Speaker 1: has to be a bull case here for in the

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Speaker 1: worst day scenario, fun flows from the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world will rescue the stock market. Why aren't we seeing that? Well?

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Speaker 1: I think I think the rest of the world is

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Speaker 1: also having quite a bit of trouble here. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: our dollars just skyrocketing on the dollar index, and I

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Speaker 1: think that the dollar index will be a big discussion

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Speaker 1: in the Jackson Hole conference coming up in late August.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that there's many central bankers from around the

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Speaker 1: world that are going to probably been Chairman Powell's here

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Speaker 1: on that issue. Um. But I am in the bullish camp.

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Speaker 1: Just to be clear, I do believe um in equities,

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Speaker 1: and I think equities are absolutely the best asset class

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Speaker 1: that you could be in right here. If you were

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Speaker 1: putting capital work and you had a three to five

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Speaker 1: year time horizon, there's no better place to go right now.

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Speaker 1: I think trying to bottom tick is just meaningless right here.

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Speaker 1: I do believe that we are going to have these

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Speaker 1: inflation numbers start falling off as we move into the fall.

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Speaker 1: That's our base case, and you can look at every

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Speaker 1: market place. I mean look from getting of June. We've

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Speaker 1: got gas down, oils down, coppers down, weeks down, I

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Speaker 1: mean everywhere across the board. I believe you're gonna see

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Speaker 1: rents roll over a little bit as we get into

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Speaker 1: the fall because the v R B o UH scene

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Speaker 1: is gonna probably have a correction and rent prices there

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Speaker 1: anywhere from ten to I think the consumer is about

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Speaker 1: to tighten up, and I think demand destruction the feat

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Speaker 1: has already accomplished it. Yeah, it does look like um

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Speaker 1: as Dangerous says, it's been to call a peak and inflation.

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Speaker 1: It does look like these numbers should be it, because

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Speaker 1: we do see eggs rolling over, we do see medals

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Speaker 1: coming down, we do see oils coming down. We've seen

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Speaker 1: that for the last couple of weeks. So and just

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Speaker 1: to add to that, let's look at the labor market.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there there's a lot of high level of

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Speaker 1: layoffs within the technology sector that are rolling through. My

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Speaker 1: sources are telling me it's it's rolling through the I mean,

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Speaker 1: you just had the financial some of the financial companies

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Speaker 1: report this morning. Layoffs are coming throughout the financial services

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Speaker 1: industry as well. And if you look at the jobless claims,

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Speaker 1: the four week moving average since the very first rate hike,

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Speaker 1: it's up thirty eight percent already. Um And this's gonna

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Speaker 1: keep accelerating. And and that's what the Fed wanted to do,

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Speaker 1: is cool it off. They've actually done their job, but

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Speaker 1: there's no way they can actually stop right here with

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Speaker 1: these high headline numbers. Got it all right, Brett, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Brett, you and their chief

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Speaker 1: market strategists at First Franklin Financial Services. It's bringing Travis

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Speaker 1: Hestor right now. He's chief Electric vehicle officer over at

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Speaker 1: General Motors and uh, this company I think has made

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Speaker 1: probably the most impressive electric vehicle of all time in

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Speaker 1: the GMC Hummer. Pretty do you know what the Hummer

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Speaker 1: can do? We're talking about a thousand horsepower, ten thousand

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Speaker 1: pound feet of torque. It can crab walk. Travis, thanks

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Speaker 1: for joining us. UM Now, most of us probably can't

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Speaker 1: afford a Hummer, or we'd have to stretch to get it.

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Speaker 1: But are these things coming down to price points that

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Speaker 1: the average American could get into? Yeah, Hi, Matte, nice

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Speaker 1: to be Thanks for having us son. Yes, we you know,

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Speaker 1: I said, General Motives. We're very much into EVS for

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Speaker 1: everybody in our vehicles and in our charging network. And

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Speaker 1: from a vehicle point of view, you're right. The Hummer

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Speaker 1: is a fantastic vehicle. It can do trab walking, it

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Speaker 1: can do it has a what's to freedom mode, which

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Speaker 1: is an acceleration mode, which is just fantastic. UM but

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Speaker 1: it are more affordable, and you have sub thirty dollar

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Speaker 1: cars like the Bolt from the Bolt of the UV,

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Speaker 1: which are fantastic vehicles and very affordable and have some

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Speaker 1: of our latest technology like take the Bolt EUV has

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Speaker 1: the latest super cruse technology that's available UM and leads

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Speaker 1: in almost any segment. So yeah, we have we have

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Speaker 1: price points and vehicles from low affordable vehicles through to

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Speaker 1: some more expensive vehicles and everything in between. I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at Hannah Elliott right now. She's walking right outside the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio and she just did an excellent

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Speaker 1: piece on the Hummer that I'm sure you saw the

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Speaker 1: cover cover piece for Bloomberg Pursuit. She's standing on the

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Speaker 1: hood of the truck. UM on the other in the

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Speaker 1: spectrum we talk about the Bolt, right. I was lucky

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Speaker 1: enough to drive around Detroit UM with Mark Royce in

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Speaker 1: his Bolt. I think it was the first generation and

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Speaker 1: UM just the perfect vehicle for somebody on a budget

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Speaker 1: who wants to get around without a big carbon footprint.

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Speaker 1: Can you produce enough though, I mean, I know there's

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Speaker 1: a huge chip shortage right now that stranded some vehicles.

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Speaker 1: My Silverado truck included on lots. So what's the chip

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Speaker 1: situation Like, Yeah, there's no doubt with UM, you know,

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Speaker 1: the global economy and COVID and lots of supply chain

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Speaker 1: issues that there's been straying in the in the supply

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Speaker 1: chain network. But we're optimistic that we are in doing

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Speaker 1: everything we can every day to UM produce as many

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Speaker 1: vehicles that our customers desire. You know, we have a long,

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Speaker 1: wide inglist because we have such great vehicles, but we

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Speaker 1: do a lot to try and get them out and

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Speaker 1: you know, the situation is continuing to improve by you know,

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Speaker 1: it evolves every day. The area is UM increased clarity

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Speaker 1: coming every day and we're getting better and faster every day. UM.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, we're optimistic because we go forward. Matt Travis,

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Speaker 1: I feel like everyone is getting into the e V

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Speaker 1: game now. Naturally you have Tesla, you got GM, you

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Speaker 1: got Forward, you name it. Everyone is hopping into this market.

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Speaker 1: But I'm curious does the infrastructure really support it here

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Speaker 1: when you don't actually have this network of charging stations

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Speaker 1: that kind of funding. I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: expected from the White House, from the government, from the

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Speaker 1: states like California, for example, who are very go green

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Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily exist yet. So in your opinion, I

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Speaker 1: guess my question is twofold. One, how is GM differentiated

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Speaker 1: at all? And two does it feel like the market

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Speaker 1: is getting ahead of itself? Thank you, that's a great

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Speaker 1: question creating. And uh, you know, we might have announcement

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Speaker 1: yesterday of this coast to coast charging infrastructure network which

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Speaker 1: is very significant. Uh you know, it's two thousand charging stalls,

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Speaker 1: it's five hundred locations. Importantly, they're all three hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty DC fast charge stations, which allows you to put

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Speaker 1: a lot of energy into the vehicle in a very

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Speaker 1: short amount of time. They'll be co branded Pilot Flying

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Speaker 1: J and Ultium Charge three sixty Ultium Charge three sixty

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Speaker 1: GMS network that aligns eleven different charge poard operators and

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Speaker 1: gives you, in this particular announcement yesterday, some very beneficial

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Speaker 1: things to the GM customers who buy our vehicles, things

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Speaker 1: like exclusive reservations, discounts on charging, a really great technology

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Speaker 1: called plug and charge, which means you don't need to

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Speaker 1: use credit cards anymore. You just plug them, the charge

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Speaker 1: poort into the vehicle and the payment's taken care of.

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Speaker 1: Integration into the vehicle what we call our my Brand apps,

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Speaker 1: which are like the Chevrolet App or the Cadillac App,

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Speaker 1: and that helps you to get real time charger availability,

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Speaker 1: that does route planning, It allows you to make those

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Speaker 1: coast to coast trips. And so it's a very significant

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Speaker 1: um uh you know, north to south, east to west,

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Speaker 1: city to city announcement. But as part of the GM

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Speaker 1: Multium Charge three S network, we've previously announced a seven

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty million dollar investment into that infrastructure. That

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Speaker 1: includes forty level two charges around dealer communities where we

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Speaker 1: all live and work. It includes three thousand, two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty d C fast charges in the inner city environment,

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Speaker 1: which we do with our great partner e v Go.

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Speaker 1: UM So, we know it's a pretty comprehensive network that's

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Speaker 1: being built out here, and you know it's evolving at

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Speaker 1: the same rate that evs are coming to market. And

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Speaker 1: you know, we're in this latest announcement we just made,

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Speaker 1: we will be getting that interstate free a charge are

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Speaker 1: installed early here in two thousand and twenty three. We're

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Speaker 1: moving pretty rapidly. Again, very cool, Hey Travis, tell us

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Speaker 1: about you your job and you know how it's changed

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Speaker 1: over the years at General Motors. I know you were

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Speaker 1: the chief engineer for the Cadillac CT six, and you've

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Speaker 1: held engineering positions with other on other i CE projects.

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Speaker 1: Now you're um, now you're running the growth or the

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Speaker 1: electric operations. What's the difference. Uh, yeah, So I've been

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Speaker 1: with GM for almost twenty six years now, lots of it, Matt.

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Speaker 1: As you said, I was a chief engineer on vehicles

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Speaker 1: for a long time, UM, which was great because we

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Speaker 1: do just such great vehicles. But as things have evolved here,

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Speaker 1: you know, our technology development on electric vehicles and autonomous

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Speaker 1: vehicles is just surging. It great. Rights I've been involved

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Speaker 1: with both of them on the product development side, but

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Speaker 1: now I'm lucky enough to get the opportunity to how

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Speaker 1: developed this on the infrastructure side and some of the

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Speaker 1: energy management side. And this is a highly fast evolving

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Speaker 1: area of our industry. And you know, the US has

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Speaker 1: such a great infrastructure with its freeway and highway networks.

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Speaker 1: It's time to get the electric vehicle infrastructure side of

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Speaker 1: that up and running. And I have a fabulous team

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Speaker 1: of people who helped do that, and we have fabulous partners,

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Speaker 1: people like Pilot Flying J and even EGO, who help

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Speaker 1: us UM get that up and running, and then we're

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Speaker 1: going to be able to help us execute that. So

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Speaker 1: it's it's a fairly you know. It's our industry is

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Speaker 1: evolving and our our roles are changing, and it's exciting.

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Speaker 1: To be honest with you, it's I can't think of

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Speaker 1: a more exciting time to be in our industry compared

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Speaker 1: to the last hundred years. It's it's it's fantastic. I

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Speaker 1: gotta say I would agree late sixties maybe late sixties,

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Speaker 1: I'd be there right with the Camaro. But in any case, Travis,

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Speaker 1: great to have you on. Thanks so much for joy

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Speaker 1: in US chief Electric Vehicle Officer for General Motors. As

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Speaker 1: we've been focused on today, more high, well high is

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Speaker 1: an understatement. More massive inflation prints. With the p p

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Speaker 1: I coming out at eleven point three yesterday, with the

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Speaker 1: c p I out at nine point one, let's talk

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Speaker 1: with someone who can maybe offer you a solution in

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Speaker 1: terms of the right hedge. David Auerbach joins us right now,

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Speaker 1: managing director from Armada E. T F Advisors. And the

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Speaker 1: cool thing is David with you and my co anchor

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Speaker 1: Kritty Gutta, I can say it's great to have y'all here. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it definitely is. David got his b A, his b

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Speaker 1: A at Texas and his NBA at s m U. Well,

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Speaker 1: the only reason he's telling me that is because for

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Speaker 1: your information, David, and for our entire audience is my

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Speaker 1: brother actually went to s m U. I grew up here.

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Speaker 1: To me, I'm a Dallas I'm a Dallas gal. I

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Speaker 1: spent a few years hitting the bars around s m US.

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Speaker 1: My favorite places Highland Park one of my favorite places

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Speaker 1: to hang out. Let's get back to well, actually it's

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Speaker 1: it's really a real real estate and partly residential story

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Speaker 1: that you have for us, David, right, because you think

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Speaker 1: this is a great way to hedge against inflation. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: and thanks so much for having me really appreciate it

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Speaker 1: and love the Dallas ties. That's so cool. You know,

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Speaker 1: we take a very uniquepproach at our MADA. When we

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Speaker 1: launched the Home Appreciation US RE d E t F

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Speaker 1: in March, we have this view that we're building our

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Speaker 1: fund on two fund principles. Number one, where people relocating

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Speaker 1: across the country and then which the residential read segments

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Speaker 1: are benefiting from that relocation. From where we sit, we

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Speaker 1: know that real estate is personal. There's If there's one

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Speaker 1: thing that the three of us all have in common,

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Speaker 1: is that we're very fortunate enough to go to sleep

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Speaker 1: with the roof over our head. Whether we live in

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Speaker 1: an apartment, we rent, the house where we live is home,

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Speaker 1: and that home is the most important investment decision that

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Speaker 1: you make every single day. And as you mentioned about inflation,

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Speaker 1: well we know that interest rates are going up basis

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Speaker 1: points lock it in for sure, most likely a hundred

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Speaker 1: at this rate. But what that means is that cost

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Speaker 1: of that mortgage now gets more expensive. You have to

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Speaker 1: come more to the table with the down payment, and

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Speaker 1: so that's going to affect many first time home buyers

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Speaker 1: and those that are probably in the market right now

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Speaker 1: trying to buy that house. And for so many people

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Speaker 1: it's just been impossible, right, I mean, not only were

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Speaker 1: they priced out of the market when mortgage trades were cheap,

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Speaker 1: now they have no chance of getting in. I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people just anecdotally who can't buy a house,

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Speaker 1: and I know people who can't sell a house because

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Speaker 1: the buyers just can't afford it. Now is that going

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Speaker 1: to change? You know? I would say in the back

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Speaker 1: half of the year, we would see some moderation. But frankly,

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Speaker 1: I also think part of plays into that old number

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Speaker 1: one rule of real estate location, location, location ship. If

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Speaker 1: you go talk to folks that are in Nashville or

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Speaker 1: Charlotte or in Austin, you know, they may have a

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Speaker 1: different perspective. Right now, my neighbor across the streets sold

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Speaker 1: his house within a week here in Dallas and almost

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Speaker 1: got full offer on his property. And so, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think there are pockets that you're still seeing massive,

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Speaker 1: massive strength. But the bigger problem here is that we

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Speaker 1: all know there is a massive supply demand and balance

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Speaker 1: in the housing markets. There's just not enough housing inventory

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Speaker 1: to satisfy the amount of demand that's out there. David,

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Speaker 1: is that going to change? I want to bring up

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Speaker 1: another Texan that we're going to have on a little

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Speaker 1: bit later on the show. Daniel DeMartino booth Um, whom

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Speaker 1: you may know she advised the fed and wrote a

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Speaker 1: book called fed Up. She advised the Dallas Fed. Um.

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Speaker 1: She has said it's possible that we have a glut

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Speaker 1: next year of housing and cars because so many people

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Speaker 1: are trying to fill this void. What do you think

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Speaker 1: about that possibility? You know, I don't know about that

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Speaker 1: glutt necessarily. Again, the part of the problem is that

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Speaker 1: what I'm air quoting this that affordable housing product, that

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Speaker 1: starter house doesn't exist anymore for those first time home buyers.

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Speaker 1: But instead you're seeing this plethora of single family rental

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Speaker 1: platforms from like invitation homes, American Homes for rent. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's a tri con. There's a lot of single family

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Speaker 1: rental properties that are out there. One other point, you know,

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Speaker 1: employment growth is driving household formation. We know that the

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Speaker 1: employment market is still strong with a three handle on

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Speaker 1: the unemployment rate. As a result, again with inflation going up,

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Speaker 1: gas prices are up, and if you're an apartment landlord,

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Speaker 1: you're still knocking on your tenant's door on the first

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Speaker 1: of the month saying where's my rent? Many of these

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Speaker 1: apartment companies, as an example, reporting you know, double digit

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Speaker 1: year over yr n o I growth, rental growth, strong

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Speaker 1: quarterly sequential growth. We're going into the summer prime leasing

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Speaker 1: season for these apartment guys that are you know occupied,

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Speaker 1: and so again plays back into that thesis of where

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Speaker 1: you live is that most important investment decision that you

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Speaker 1: make for yourself, for your family and for your kids. David,

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Speaker 1: we got about a minute here. This is a trend

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Speaker 1: that's not going away anytime soon. Do you foresee any

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Speaker 1: sort of pop of the housing bubble any time in

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Speaker 1: our near future? If there is going to be I

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Speaker 1: think a lob, it's going to be dictated on future

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Speaker 1: increases of the interest rates. We know obviously this next

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Speaker 1: one is there going to be more down the road

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Speaker 1: this year because that will play into the own price

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Speaker 1: appreciation and the moderation of the housing market going forward.

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Speaker 1: But again with us focused on house R E t

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Speaker 1: F here h A U S. You know, we're just

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Speaker 1: trying to take it on a quarter by quarter basis,

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Speaker 1: taking the news that's coming at us from the government, Fanning,

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Speaker 1: may redfin Zelo, Bloomberg, all the sources that are kind

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Speaker 1: of telling us where the housing market is headed. And

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Speaker 1: right now I will tell you from where we sit,

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Speaker 1: we really don't see that letting up until maybe, like

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Speaker 1: I said, back half of this year, maybe into next year.

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Speaker 1: All right, David, thanks how much for joining us. Great

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Speaker 1: having you all on this morning. David auerback, managing director

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Speaker 1: at Armada E. T F Advisers, talking to us about

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Speaker 1: possible inflation hedges. He would suggest one, which is their

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Speaker 1: Home Appreciation U s REAT. The ticker is house spelled

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Speaker 1: in German h a u S and you can check

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Speaker 1: it out on the Bloomberg h a U S Equity

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Speaker 1: d S. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller, three pt on Fall Sweeney

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00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio