Speaker 1: The volume.
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Speaker 2: time is it? Game Time? Instant re action on the
Speaker 2: Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five to thirty four, another
Speaker 2: great Thursday night football game, one of the best games
Speaker 2: of the year. This is I had the Bengals plus
Speaker 2: six tonight for this very reason. These are great rivals,
Speaker 2: two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses, you know,
Speaker 2: this is why Kansas City should be favored to win
Speaker 2: the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work. In fact,
Speaker 2: let's talk about going for two. I would have gone
Speaker 2: for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses, you know,
Speaker 2: if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense first half
Speaker 2: a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great, they've got momentum.
Speaker 2: But eventually a bad defense gets more tired, it gets
Speaker 2: more beat up. You lose a couple of players who
Speaker 2: get banged up, and by the end of the game,
Speaker 2: you know Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they get exposed.
Speaker 2: A lot of defenses have a really good first quarter.
Speaker 2: A lot of defenses you know when they've got great energy.
Speaker 2: They're aggressive offenses, and big games can be a little tight,
Speaker 2: restrictive conservative. But over the course of a game, these
Speaker 2: are not great defenses, and both Joe Burrow and Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson just lit the defenses up. I would have gone
Speaker 2: for it. First of all, I think aggressive wins. I'm
Speaker 2: usually a go for it teams that go to overtime
Speaker 2: generally historically don't play well the next week. The extra
Speaker 2: fifteen snaps or whatever it is. So I think Zach
Speaker 2: Taylor made the right call. But you know, I want
Speaker 2: to talk about something. Is one of the things the
Speaker 2: media does that really frustrates me that they don't consider
Speaker 2: how society adapts. They overreact to things. I could give
Speaker 2: you multiple examples. I was listening to a podcast recently
Speaker 2: and the guy was talking about, you know, one hundred
Speaker 2: years ago or more, you know, people thought we were
Speaker 2: going to run out of food, but you know, things
Speaker 2: happen fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more people
Speaker 2: die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I remember
Speaker 2: when I was a kid back in the late eighties,
Speaker 2: eighty seven eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go
Speaker 2: from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and
Speaker 2: now it can be faster than that. But there was this,
Speaker 2: you know, sense from the media it was car desks
Speaker 2: were going to explode, and they did increase initially on
Speaker 2: rural roads. But over the course of time, there's technology
Speaker 2: advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars, and
Speaker 2: society adapts and the media has to do a better job,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll give you
Speaker 2: another example. During COVID college football media is like myocarditis.
Speaker 2: You can get an infection through a virus. It's going
Speaker 2: to kill college football players. Well, first of all, on average,
Speaker 2: it's treatable, and on average, the person that gets myocarditis
Speaker 2: is in their mid forties, nineteen to twenty years old,
Speaker 2: in elite shape. So again, it's the overreaction to things
Speaker 2: that either somebody writes a story in the media and
Speaker 2: then everybody jumps on board and copies it out of
Speaker 2: just apathy or laziness, or they don't do their homework,
Speaker 2: or they're just overreacting and not considering. There's just a
Speaker 2: lot of smart people out there, whether it's on the
Speaker 2: processing of food, the creation of food, whether it's manufacturing
Speaker 2: better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines. During COVID,
Speaker 2: people figure stuff out. And the reason I bring this
Speaker 2: up we had another great Thursday night game. We've had
Speaker 2: multiple great Thursday night games. This is one of the
Speaker 2: best games of the year. Minnesota and the Rams was
Speaker 2: a good Thursday night game. San Francisco in Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Speaker 2: Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good as an
Speaker 2: NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins
Speaker 2: showing off is that I remember about four years ago
Speaker 2: and the media was going through a weird time. There
Speaker 2: were some cultural changes. It's when the word woke started
Speaker 2: being used a lot, and you know, it can be overused,
Speaker 2: and it was overused, but it does exist. And the media
Speaker 2: was just on this thing that Thursday Night football. It
Speaker 2: was unfair to players, and it was like I talked
Speaker 2: to NFL players and they like Thursday Night Football. You
Speaker 2: didn't hit that week. It was a real light week
Speaker 2: of practice and then you know you're off after the
Speaker 2: game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday. So a
Speaker 2: lot of guys it's like a second by a lot
Speaker 2: of guys on the West Coast would go to Hawaii
Speaker 2: or Mexico. A lot of guys in the East Coast
Speaker 2: would go to the Bahamas. They treated it as a
Speaker 2: second bye week. And so this idea that it was
Speaker 2: too much for NFL players. These are twenty five year
Speaker 2: old world class athletes that spend six and seven figures
Speaker 2: on their bodies, They've got great training staffs around them.
Speaker 2: They're going to be okay. And I think again today,
Speaker 2: did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do they look
Speaker 2: overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game? Of course not.
Speaker 2: And again it's just I'm part of the media and
Speaker 2: I've overreacted before. But I thought what you saw tonight, well,
Speaker 2: these Thursday night games, they like to get these divisional
Speaker 2: rival games that are close. They don't want to have
Speaker 2: to travel too far on a Thursday. They want the
Speaker 2: game to be regional or divisional, and these this was
Speaker 2: a perfect Thursday night game. Great quarterback play, two teams
Speaker 2: that know each other to you know, I mean, I
Speaker 2: think Zach Taytor is a smart, clever offensive coach, and
Speaker 2: I think John Harbaugh's great and the teams. You know,
Speaker 2: clearly Baltimore looked a little off early, but you know,
Speaker 2: they adapt their pro athletes. I thought it was a
Speaker 2: classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow having
Speaker 2: to overcome a terrible defense. And I mean Baltimore's isn't
Speaker 2: great either, but through the years it has been pretty
Speaker 2: consistently solid. Now the Ravens have really poured more money
Speaker 2: into their offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley. They just went
Speaker 2: and got Deontay Johnson. So they're pouring more of the
Speaker 2: money in offense, which is where NFL teams should spend
Speaker 2: their money. But I never worry about Baltimore being cheap
Speaker 2: or trying to save a nickel here or there, or Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: That's the Brown family's history. So I just feel like,
Speaker 2: you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA. He's
Speaker 2: not going to demand a trade. But I do think
Speaker 2: he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting up
Speaker 2: numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they did
Speaker 2: everything they could possibly do. I thought I thought there
Speaker 2: was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion that
Speaker 2: was un called not called, which is unfortunate, and I
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen, when
Speaker 2: you give up the points in the yards that Cincinnati
Speaker 2: did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,
Speaker 2: and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,
Speaker 2: at the end the games, officials are best served swallowing
Speaker 2: the whistle. I mean, one of the things I noticed
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and I'm sure you've noticed this is
Speaker 2: over the course of the last eight to ten to
Speaker 2: twelve years, the amount of contact that is allowed on
Speaker 2: the perimeter is insane. You could call pass interference on
Speaker 2: every play. And I think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence
Speaker 2: on the sport, where you know, the Patriots just they
Speaker 2: were physical, they grabbed, they touched, they'd wear the same
Speaker 2: colored gloves as the team they were playing's uniform, and
Speaker 2: they were just it was constant conflict and touching. You're
Speaker 2: not going to call pass the interference on every play.
Speaker 2: And so the reality over time it's been normalized on
Speaker 2: the edges that you just you got to grab. Now
Speaker 2: you can't put your arm around a guy, but you
Speaker 2: can call pass interference constantly in this league. And they
Speaker 2: and Baltimore was flagged for it tonight several times. Personal
Speaker 2: fouls and pass interference on a play like that. Good
Speaker 2: luck on the road getting that call. And again, it's
Speaker 2: not like Cincinnati played flawless football. Their defense was a mess.
Speaker 2: They're tackling was bad. I do love this about Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson and I've said this before and I'll say it again.
Speaker 2: The guy was two hundred and ninety yards four touchdowns,
Speaker 2: trailed by fourteen and the third. One of the things
Speaker 2: I love about Lamar, and this is certainly the case
Speaker 2: with a Josh Allen and to Patrick Mahomes, you just
Speaker 2: don't know when they're trailing. If you watch them play.
Speaker 2: They don't play any different when they're trailing them when
Speaker 2: they're leading. And I've always thought the line in this league,
Speaker 2: the difference between the haves and the have nuts in
Speaker 2: quarterback play is the average quarterbacks in this league press
Speaker 2: when they're behind, when you know they have to throw.
Speaker 2: A Geno Smith a good player, but they don't feel
Speaker 2: the same. You're watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and
Speaker 2: half in the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: You can't tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change
Speaker 2: his body language, his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such
Speaker 2: a special, all time athlete. And this nonsense that he's
Speaker 2: not a pocket quarterback, which thankfully that's people have moved
Speaker 2: away from that. He's exceptional, really good job too. He's
Speaker 2: got a little bit of a different throwing style, so
Speaker 2: did Philip Rivers. You know, some guys just have a
Speaker 2: little bit of a different you know, Justin Herbert looks
Speaker 2: like he could be the NFL logo. He's got that
Speaker 2: perfect stance, you know, had like Jerry West was the
Speaker 2: NBA logo, the late Jerry West that Justin Herbert. If
Speaker 2: the NFL ever did a player logo, it would be
Speaker 2: a quarterback and Justin Herbert literally could be the logo.
Speaker 2: He's got the perfect long stride. But a lot of
Speaker 2: these guys have kind of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes
Speaker 2: throws off his he's not even on the ground. So
Speaker 2: Lamar's got a little bit of a different style. It's
Speaker 2: a little bit more of a flip. I think Kyler
Speaker 2: Murray's got one of the prettiest throws throwing motions in
Speaker 2: the league. But it just works, and he has an ability.
Speaker 2: Lamar has an ability to. I think it's body confidence
Speaker 2: that he can stare all over the field and then
Speaker 2: just in a quarter second suddenly look over to the
Speaker 2: sideline where they camp a guy and make a beautiful
Speaker 2: throw of eight to twelve yards. He's just he's really
Speaker 2: got a sense of composure and self awareness and accuracy,
Speaker 2: and you know, he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow product
Speaker 2: clinic tonight. It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: And again, these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic.
Speaker 2: And the only thing I don't like about Thursday night
Speaker 2: football two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL
Speaker 2: won't play Sunday. And that's the downside to you know,
Speaker 2: if you do Thursday night football and you do Monday
Speaker 2: night football, So you know, Monday night Tua and Matt
Speaker 2: Stafford are playing, and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow. So four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks
Speaker 2: in the league are not playing Sunday. You know, So
Speaker 2: you know, I can only take so much. Will Levis, Sorry,
Speaker 2: it's that's the only knock to me on these Thursday
Speaker 2: night football games. Seven years ago, these games six years ago,
Speaker 2: the games were awful. I mean it was like you
Speaker 2: felt like you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing
Speaker 2: bumblebee uniforms. Now they you know, they're putting up an
Speaker 2: almost every Thursday night football game this year. I think
Speaker 2: it's the best Thursday night schedule. You've got a star
Speaker 2: quarterback tonight you had two and and if you didn't
Speaker 2: enjoy that, I don't you know. I like defense occasionally,
Speaker 2: but if you didn't enjoy that, like it's not your
Speaker 2: it's not your sport, that was just great. Great. Also
Speaker 2: had Cincinnati plus six. Didn't know if I was going
Speaker 2: to win that at one point. But I don't think
Speaker 2: less of Baltimore because it's close. These division rival games.
Speaker 2: You get four, five six points. If you have a
Speaker 2: capable quarterback in a division rivalry game, take the points.
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is one of the I think he's five
Speaker 2: and zero this year as a as an underdog against
Speaker 2: the spread on the road this year, Joe Burrows A
Speaker 2: he's a great He's now seventeen and three. Is Joe
Speaker 2: Burrow as a three point or more underdog as an
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Speaker 2: All right, John Middlecoff, It's time for our hour plus
Speaker 2: on a Sunday. He is the former NFL scout for
Speaker 2: the Philadelphia Eagles Three and Out podcast. Let's start with
Speaker 2: a team you're near and dear to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: So they did it on the ground, in the air.
Speaker 2: They beat the Jags twenty eight to twenty three, although
Speaker 2: Jacksonville with a massive late game comeback, Trevor Lawrence one
Speaker 2: got a little loose Onnomy through a pick in the
Speaker 2: end zone. You know, my takeaway on this is, I'll
Speaker 2: go back to saying this, Jalen's not making the mistakes
Speaker 2: and Barkley, Saquon Barkley's absolutely With Christian McCaffrey not playing yet,
Speaker 2: Barkley's the best running back in the league. And I
Speaker 2: think what Jalen hurts as they win today, My take
Speaker 2: is they've gotten him out of the position where I
Speaker 2: don't feel like he's ad libbing or out of control
Speaker 2: like I thought Jordan loved today for the Packers was
Speaker 2: out of control multiple times. I kind of think Philadelphia's
Speaker 2: figured out kind of the way to use Allen. What
Speaker 2: do you see?
Speaker 1: Well, I think Saquan's definitely changed their team. I mean
Speaker 1: he's been him and Derrick Henry you talk about additions
Speaker 1: this offseason, those two guys. I mean, Dereck Henry was
Speaker 1: probably a Hall of Fame player before this. Now he
Speaker 1: cemented himself. I mean, there's no one's ever questioned Saquan's talent.
Speaker 1: I mean, what would Penn State do to have that
Speaker 1: guy right now on their team? I mean, they did
Speaker 1: have an offensive weapon, but to me, I mean, the
Speaker 1: only reason that game was close was Sirianni and Kellen.
Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure what was going on there with
Speaker 1: some of the play calling. Yeah, they instead of kicking
Speaker 1: a field goal, I didn't get that, decided not to
Speaker 1: do the tush push and they roll him out and
Speaker 1: he's got nowhere to go. Like right now, their offense,
Speaker 1: I mean AJ Brown, which is a pretty big deal.
Speaker 1: Not maybe in this game, but I guess they play
Speaker 1: the Cowboys next week, so not in that game either,
Speaker 1: but in two weeks against Washington.
Speaker 4: His presence for them to beat really good teams as
Speaker 4: a must have.
Speaker 1: But when you're playing a team like today, DeVante Smith
Speaker 1: what a draft pick. I mean, I thought, wait, this
Speaker 1: guy's gonna be one hundred and seventy five pounds.
Speaker 2: I don't think he would last in this league.
Speaker 1: How about his one handed touchdown? Oh my god, so
Speaker 1: you ad Saquon to him? I mean the guy that
Speaker 1: had the game winning interception to Kobe Dean. I mean,
Speaker 1: they have a lot of young defensive players. The last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, Nolan Smith has been all over the
Speaker 1: quarterback like I trust Vic Fangio. To me, it just
Speaker 1: gets down to Sirianni who if they had lost today,
Speaker 1: Colin to Doug Peterson and the Jags who they had fired,
Speaker 1: do you know, I mean Embiid would have been let
Speaker 1: off the hook because it would have been a Siria
Speaker 1: You cannot lose that game. And it got weird obviously
Speaker 1: the freak Saquon fumble, But that's a little too close
Speaker 1: for comfort given how well their top guys were playing.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean Barkley was great. Jalen went like
Speaker 2: eighteen to twenty four, two hundred and thirty yards. No,
Speaker 2: you know, no interceptions there. The receivers that were on
Speaker 2: the field were excellent. They actually, I mean they they
Speaker 2: had four hundred and fifty plus yards of offense six
Speaker 2: point five yards per play. They were great on third down.
Speaker 2: They dominate time of possession, and you look up and
Speaker 2: you're like, you're at home and it's twenty eight twenty three.
Speaker 4: It's they were up twenty two. Nothing right.
Speaker 1: It looked like they were gonna blow him out forty
Speaker 1: to ten or something.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I just feel like I kind of feel like this
Speaker 2: is the rare instance. And I felt this a couple
Speaker 2: of years ago with Detroit. But I've come to terms
Speaker 2: with Ben Johnson, the coordinator for the Lions. I didn't trust.
Speaker 2: I really didn't trust Dan Campbell.
Speaker 4: I do now.
Speaker 2: I think he has grown. I think he's a little
Speaker 2: less emotional now. I also think he realizes he's no
Speaker 2: longer hunting, he's being hunted. They're the favorite. I think
Speaker 2: he I think like today they got a lead, they
Speaker 2: got real smart, they got real conservative. It was really
Speaker 2: really smart Lions football. I feel like Siriani's like Dan
Speaker 2: Campbell a couple of years ago. He's still trying to
Speaker 2: prove himself. I want to show you guys how smart
Speaker 2: I am. And then when you make mistakes like yelling
Speaker 2: at the crowd and get your hands slapped by the owners,
Speaker 2: then you kind of double down on I want to
Speaker 2: show how smart I am. And there I just think
Speaker 2: with Dan Campbell I've seen growth. I do think he's
Speaker 2: a better, more mature coach today. And with Siriani, I
Speaker 2: think they're gonna get to the playoffs, and I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna have all these weapons and outplay people, and
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna lose to a really smart, efficient team.
Speaker 2: Atlanta beats the Cowboys twenty seven to twenty one. So
Speaker 2: if you didn't watch this game, I could sum it
Speaker 2: up with the multiple fall starts, the nine penalties for Dallas,
Speaker 2: too many men on the field, and a fourth down.
Speaker 2: Atlanta basically got out rushed, out passed. But Dallas was
Speaker 2: so bad on fourth down, so many pedalties, so inefficient,
Speaker 2: and Kirk Cousins just go out, goes out nineteen and
Speaker 2: twenty four, doesn't make any big mistakes. Like Atlanta's not
Speaker 2: physically impressive, but Atlanta's really efficient because they brought Kirk
Speaker 2: Cousins in, who just doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
Speaker 2: He gets you in and out of plays. When I
Speaker 2: watched Dallas today, Mike McCary, Mike McCarthy's frustration with you.
Speaker 2: I mean, when you have Dak Prescott, they're a veteran team,
Speaker 2: you can't have false starts, illegal motions like it feels
Speaker 2: like to me, that is so much on the quarterback.
Speaker 2: Now he left and Cooper Rush came in. But I
Speaker 2: you know, I had said before the year, this was
Speaker 2: one of my I guess I'm actually wrong on this.
Speaker 2: I said Dallas won't make the playoffs. It'll be Philadelphia
Speaker 2: and Washington in that division. It will begin a slight regression. John.
Speaker 2: They may be a bottom four team in the league.
Speaker 2: And I'm dead serious. They're they're they're better than the
Speaker 2: Raiders because of dak uh Hell and Cooper Rush. I
Speaker 2: think they're better than Carolina, probably better than New Orleans
Speaker 2: now they weren't in Week two. Dallas is a bad
Speaker 2: football team without a lot of good players.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I thought coming into this week we were gonna learn, like,
Speaker 1: are they just going to end up sucking all season
Speaker 1: and being a five or six win team or they
Speaker 1: gonna have a little heart and battle and you know,
Speaker 1: at the end of the year be eight to nine.
Speaker 1: But if shown some metal throughout the year, I think
Speaker 1: they're headed toward five or six wins now. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: today didn't it Simbal Eyes before the game even kicked off,
Speaker 1: they less they left Zeke back at home Yeah, all
Speaker 1: I had heard from Cowboys people is listen, we know
Speaker 1: he doesn't have as much, but the leadership, yeah, the camaraderie,
Speaker 1: him and Dak are close. And then these stories about
Speaker 1: he never shows up on time, he's disgruntled.
Speaker 4: It's like, well, then Whysey on the team?
Speaker 1: And is that a little bit I'm not putting this
Speaker 1: all on Dak, but isn't that Dak's one of his
Speaker 1: best friends? Like, so what do we got going on there?
Speaker 1: And then as the game goes on today it was
Speaker 1: a reflection of they don't have that much talent. Oh
Speaker 1: how often today Jesus even on like just random innocuous
Speaker 1: plays Bijon in space out in the flat and three
Speaker 1: guys would whiff and he'd get eight yards. That should
Speaker 1: have been one.
Speaker 2: Listen, John, on a fourth and one, they have so
Speaker 2: little talent in the backfield. On a fourth and one,
Speaker 2: they had to use deception on a quick on a
Speaker 2: like a jet sweep to CD lamb. Now, yeah, it
Speaker 2: worked about twenty minutes later, same play. But on a
Speaker 2: fourth and one with a very quarterback Zach Martin, one
Speaker 2: of the great guards ever, they had to get clever
Speaker 2: and tricky. They have no run game. One of the
Speaker 2: easiest predictions anybody could have made going into this season,
Speaker 2: if Dallas would have the worst running back room in
Speaker 2: the league. I mean, we watched Zeke in New England.
Speaker 2: He can't he's done, it's over. They made no moves,
Speaker 2: they they it's it's remarkable. Now, I'm not saying Derek
Speaker 2: Henry would be as good as we've talked about in Dallas.
Speaker 2: As Baltimore, you start looking at it. I've said before
Speaker 2: the season, if Ceedee Lamb twisted an ankle, this is
Speaker 2: the worst offense in the league. I mean, it's it's
Speaker 2: it's I watched them today and I'm like, they it
Speaker 2: was just all a cotton candy yards. I mean, Atlanta
Speaker 2: was so much smarter, more efficient, good on third down.
Speaker 4: I was.
Speaker 1: I was playing golf the other day with a diehard
Speaker 1: cowboy fan. This guy's been to countless games over the
Speaker 1: last thirty years, and I asked him, do you think
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott's better than Tony Romo? And you were always
Speaker 1: one of Tony's biggest defenders. Yeah, And he's said, you know,
Speaker 1: I would have told you four or five years ago, yes,
Speaker 1: but at this point in time, you can't watch these
Speaker 1: games up until Tony's back went.
Speaker 4: He was a more dynamic absolutely, absolutely, and in.
Speaker 1: Twenty one, twenty two, and even last year, those teams
Speaker 1: were so good. I mean in twenty one and twenty
Speaker 1: two the Cowboys were really good.
Speaker 4: I mean they had a.
Speaker 1: Home playoff game, they were toe to toe with the
Speaker 1: Niners in the second round, and they're I mean, Dak
Speaker 1: didn't just have one bad play, like he.
Speaker 4: Was atrocious through most of those games.
Speaker 1: So I think, listen, this is not his fault, you know,
Speaker 1: in terms of the pie chart one if they go
Speaker 1: six or seven or maybe five wins, but he has
Speaker 1: kind of crumbled like he has not been an elevator,
Speaker 1: talk about trailers and tractors, clear where he falls. And honestly,
Speaker 1: today was just an embarrassing day for the organization. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think Mike's hands were on it, Jerry's
Speaker 1: hands were on it. Because the Zeke thing to me
Speaker 1: symbolizes I thought that moment. I thought the Bears benching
Speaker 1: the guy for like two series like this is we're
Speaker 1: not little league or high school, We're not teaching life lessons.
Speaker 4: You either leave him at home, yeah.
Speaker 1: And make him in active to show like this will
Speaker 1: never be tolerated, or you just start him like this
Speaker 1: is a business. You know, we're trying to win or lose.
Speaker 4: I got nope.
Speaker 1: I would have made him inactive to show everyone just
Speaker 1: like the Cowboys did. Zeke, you're not showing up. But
Speaker 1: there's no middle ground. This isn't high school football where
Speaker 1: it's like you're gonna sit out the first series or
Speaker 1: two like that.
Speaker 4: That to me is so dumb.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's embarrassing at the highest level. It's
Speaker 1: just that's why you know, certain teams lose, and obviously
Speaker 1: the same teams consistently win over and over.
Speaker 2: A game today that I thought was important and symbolic,
Speaker 2: Arizona crushes the Bears twenty nine to nine. Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: barely had to throw. There was a lot of I mean,
Speaker 2: they led twenty nine, twenty one to nine and a half.
Speaker 2: I think the bigger story is Caleb Williams was ineffective.
Speaker 2: The offensive line was overwhelmed. The offensive line. I've talked
Speaker 2: about this so many times, John, defensive coaches and offensive
Speaker 2: lines are a problem. The Bears. Klob's been out played
Speaker 2: badly by Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels. The last two weeks,
Speaker 2: he's dancing around in the back getting sacked by Arizona
Speaker 2: offensive lines gotten worse. And I watched today there was
Speaker 2: a safety on the Bears at one point as they
Speaker 2: lost twenty nine to nine. There wasn't a There wasn't
Speaker 2: once we got to the second quarter. There wasn't a
Speaker 2: minute I thought Chicago could win. I think Caleb is
Speaker 2: clearly Even though bow Knicks got rolled today, Baltimore at
Speaker 2: homes much better. That was one of the easiest bets
Speaker 2: of the year. Taking the Ravens minus eight to nine,
Speaker 2: bow Knicks looks like he's got it to earned control.
Speaker 2: I mean there's I think he really looks like for
Speaker 2: the personnel they have, obviously Jade.
Speaker 4: He actually didn't play terribly. No, no, no, he wasn't.
Speaker 2: He just I mean, they don't have seven guys who
Speaker 2: would start for the Ravens. They have Patrick Certan, maybe
Speaker 2: a safety.
Speaker 4: That's about it.
Speaker 2: But when I look at Caleb right now, they average
Speaker 2: three point four yards of play. It is screaming to
Speaker 2: get rid of Matti Eberflus. I mean, I just a
Speaker 2: whole game, I'm like this, it just doesn't work. He
Speaker 2: doesn't have the right coordinator. It's a mess in Chicago.
Speaker 1: Now, Well, if I had told you by the middle
Speaker 1: of the season that if the Bears called up the
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders and said before the season and said, would
Speaker 1: you trade Jaden Daniels straight up for Caleb Williams, and
Speaker 1: the Commanders would laugh at them and hang up the phone,
Speaker 1: you would have said the Bears have serious issues. Because
Speaker 1: two things can be true. Today was an embarrassing day
Speaker 1: for Eberflus, but so was last week, and so was
Speaker 1: this offseason when it was pretty clear you're putting this
Speaker 1: guy into a lame duck situation. This is not a
Speaker 1: McCarthy that at least listen. I know he's under his
Speaker 1: last year, but he has a long resume of success,
Speaker 1: and he coaches the quarterback who you're going to pay
Speaker 1: two hundred million dollars to.
Speaker 4: This is a head coach, a he's a good defensive coach, never.
Speaker 1: Won anything, and you have no faith that he's going
Speaker 1: to do it, and now you have to fire him
Speaker 1: a year in.
Speaker 4: But I think the bigger picture you see it with
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1: I mean, they brought in Doug and this is just
Speaker 1: not going well for him relative to hype. These things
Speaker 1: can snowball and get out of hand fast, and you invested,
Speaker 1: Actually you didn't because you made the trade, but you
Speaker 1: got this player. You chose him over these other players,
Speaker 1: specifically Jayden, who again long way to go. I mean
Speaker 1: ideally they both have fifteen year careers. Jayden Daniels is
Speaker 1: currently one of the best players in the NFL, no
Speaker 1: question like he's one of the best players in the NFL.
Speaker 2: It looks totally under control.
Speaker 1: And Caleb looks like a mid round pick forced to
Speaker 1: start because a quarterback got injured in the preseason.
Speaker 4: He makes some plays, but he misses a lot of
Speaker 4: stuff that Listen, we saw.
Speaker 1: Him making college and this gets back to people that
Speaker 1: were questioning him. He can freelance and get a little
Speaker 1: willy nilly, and that doesn't really work in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and you see him just get peppered. He's not comfortable
Speaker 1: in the pocket. The coaching staff's terrible. I do think
Speaker 1: the Tyreek Stevenson benching was just a joke. And if
Speaker 1: I'm Eberflus, I wouldn't want him in active. I'd want
Speaker 1: to just start them. But if you're Ryan Poles, you're
Speaker 1: not going anywhere. You want to show all these other
Speaker 1: guys that, like the standards are high, they're in no
Speaker 1: man's land, right, they really are, And I doubt they
Speaker 1: would fire I mean, that's a fireable game. I don't
Speaker 1: expect the Bears to fire him. But like these last
Speaker 1: two weeks, I mean they were thoroughly outplayed the week
Speaker 1: before too right, it was you know, I know, the
Speaker 1: Hail Mary, but they were worked that game, like we know,
Speaker 1: before they even get to the tough stretch of their season,
Speaker 1: Like this ain't a playoff team like this team, I
Speaker 1: mean Arizona, that to me is like a fringe wild
Speaker 1: card team. Just beat the living piss out of them.
Speaker 1: I just can't take the Bear seriously anymore.
Speaker 2: No, and this was supposed to be the two game
Speaker 2: stretch Arizona and New England next where they had a
Speaker 2: shot right to make up some before they go into Detroit, Minnesota,
Speaker 2: San Francisco, Green Bay. You know, I think there's I've
Speaker 2: almost said there's one or two in football that are undervalued,
Speaker 2: and yet there are things we know are valuable. I
Speaker 2: think a great offensive coordinator or great offensive coach, you're
Speaker 2: better on third down, you're better on offensive line. You're
Speaker 2: better at drafting offensive personnel. I mean, the Rams just
Speaker 2: figure out ways to mix and match their offensive line.
Speaker 2: They're in a wild one with the Seahawks today, but
Speaker 2: they're still you know, ham an egg and in the
Speaker 2: interior of the offensive line. These defensive coaches. Chicago's offensive
Speaker 2: line last year felt like an ascending group. You had
Speaker 2: your tackles a little soft in the middle. It is
Speaker 2: a mess with Caleb Williams mobility, it's a mess today.
Speaker 2: So I just think you get to a point where
Speaker 2: you I don't think people understand the difference between a
Speaker 2: really smart offensive coach and an average defensive coach. It
Speaker 2: is a touchdown to ten point difference a game.
Speaker 1: I do think to that moment last week on the
Speaker 1: Hail Mary was reflective of their head coach, right, because
Speaker 1: let's take a couple of top defensive coaches, right Tomlin
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh especial teams guy, but he also the dB guy.
Speaker 1: You could never envision that play with that player happening,
Speaker 1: taunting the crowd like that. That just would never happen
Speaker 1: with the Ravens and Steelers in that moment. So to me,
Speaker 1: that reflected let alone, like he's been pretty good on defense.
Speaker 1: Today he loses his best defensive player. James Connor looked
Speaker 1: like Walter.
Speaker 4: Payton against him.
Speaker 1: I mean it was like, you guys are that dependent
Speaker 1: on one guy. And offensively, I always talk about like
Speaker 1: defensive guys know nothing about offense, right, I mean, they
Speaker 1: know how to stop offenses, but they don't know. They're
Speaker 1: not calling the plays, they're not in their coaching.
Speaker 2: Brady Brady Brady made fun of Belichick not even understanding
Speaker 2: the terminology of offense.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just it's so the Bears.
Speaker 1: Honestly, this goes back to what ten months ago, eleven
Speaker 1: months ago, when they knew and they tried to have
Speaker 1: their cake and eat it too and keep their fingers crossed.
Speaker 1: And now they're gonna have to fire this guy, and
Speaker 1: it sets the whole clock off when they could have
Speaker 1: just started at scratch. Maybe Ben Johnson would have been interested,
Speaker 1: Maybe they could have hired v Abel and just had
Speaker 1: a fresh runway. Now you derail everything because one thing
Speaker 1: you would say is like, well, eberflu is kind of
Speaker 1: good on defense, so now you get a new guy.
Speaker 1: Just it just you know, upsets the Apple card which
Speaker 1: needed upsetting in January. I mean, and today was Today
Speaker 1: was really bad because coming off that loss, I thought
Speaker 1: two teams had huge bounce. Like to me, the Ravens
Speaker 1: of last year blow the team out, and they did today.
Speaker 4: So it's like, okay, you know the.
Speaker 1: Browns game, weird Outliar Jamis got hot, throw that away.
Speaker 4: The Ravens are the real deal.
Speaker 1: And the Bears like, okay, if this is gonna be
Speaker 1: a wildcard team, they come into Arizona.
Speaker 4: Even if it's tight, Arizona's not easy. You win the game.
Speaker 1: A lot of I live out here, I would imagine
Speaker 1: that were half the stadium was Bears fans.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so it's a big deal for them. And they,
Speaker 4: like you said, that game was over before it even started.
Speaker 4: They got shellacked.
Speaker 2: All right. I am feeling good about my picks this week.
Speaker 2: I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,
Speaker 2: three of the last four weeks had good college bets.
Speaker 2: By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,
Speaker 2: co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel
Speaker 2: like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay Short Week,
Speaker 2: all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye
Speaker 2: in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean
Speaker 2: all the things you'd want short week over time, other
Speaker 2: team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank
Speaker 2: you draft Kings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some
Speaker 2: jet Skis tonight, Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 5: The wise guys have loved this one. It was at
Speaker 5: five and a half, got up to six, got up
Speaker 5: to six and a half. Now it's settled in around six.
Speaker 5: I will not be surprised if this gets up to
Speaker 5: six and a half. What's interesting about this game is,
Speaker 5: you know, we talk all the time about the pro
Speaker 5: joe split, right, the professionals on one side, the amateurs
Speaker 5: on another. Normally, what you get is the Joe's the
Speaker 5: amateurs like the big fancy favorite. In this case, the
Speaker 5: jos have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have actually
Speaker 5: been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season, And
Speaker 5: because they look so good in overtime against the Chiefs
Speaker 5: and the Niners have struggled, the Joe's have been coming
Speaker 5: in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For your point,
Speaker 5: they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like the Niners
Speaker 5: coming off a bye. They like having to fade the
Speaker 5: Bucks traveling back home in a short week after overtime
Speaker 5: to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.
Speaker 5: And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking
Speaker 5: at and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.
Speaker 5: Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off
Speaker 5: of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of
Speaker 5: five and a half or more off a by on
Speaker 5: the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells
Speaker 5: you is that when a team is good and they're
Speaker 5: off the by and they go on the road in
Speaker 5: their favorites, they tend to overperform. And then you've got
Speaker 5: the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are
Speaker 5: terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,
Speaker 5: all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage
Speaker 5: against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys
Speaker 5: are with you, Simon, Simon, Whise guys are with you, Colin.
Speaker 5: I was thinking about my bff Simon one hundred on
Speaker 5: the Niners.
Speaker 2: Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals, play now.
Speaker 2: Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would
Speaker 2: put me in a good mood. But I think extra
Speaker 2: time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses
Speaker 2: in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,
Speaker 2: they're on their second play caller. There is no proof
Speaker 2: that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona
Speaker 2: at home now getting a point. I think people, I
Speaker 2: know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high
Speaker 2: on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.
Speaker 2: They got really good offensive players, and this is getting
Speaker 2: to the point in the year when defensive players. I mean,
Speaker 2: the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not that good.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square, all.
Speaker 5: Right, Well it's square. And let's not use the Niners
Speaker 5: win as a barometer of what this team is, right,
Speaker 5: because the Niners in that game, they they didn't have
Speaker 5: a kicker. They literally could not kick a field goal.
Speaker 5: When they were in the red zone, they had to
Speaker 5: keep running it. And one of those times, even though
Speaker 5: they were ahead, there running back fumbled the ball and
Speaker 5: it sent them the Cardinals towards a win in which
Speaker 5: they had about a five percent chance of winning the game.
Speaker 5: In that exact moment, the Cardinals have won three in
Speaker 5: a row. They're in first place in the AFC West,
Speaker 5: ahead of the Rams, ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of
Speaker 5: the Niners. There is a lot of glow on this
Speaker 5: team right now, and it is a team to its credit,
Speaker 5: it has come back from double digit downs in a
Speaker 5: couple of games, and then it destroyed a Bear's team,
Speaker 5: which you and I both know like they were primed
Speaker 5: to be destroyed. I know, I listened to your show.
Speaker 5: I know how you feel about Ibra Flus, I know
Speaker 5: the stat you've been drumming about him on the road.
Speaker 5: I agree with you as a Bears fan, terrible coach.
Speaker 5: That was the exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant,
Speaker 5: right the Jets with a mini bi getting healthier. No
Speaker 5: pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean
Speaker 5: the Cardinals cannot get any pressure. They are the worst
Speaker 5: in the league. That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 5: to bring this team back down to earth. The wise guys,
Speaker 5: like the Jets. The line has moved. The Jets were
Speaker 5: underdogs the Jets are now favorites.
Speaker 2: Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I
Speaker 2: like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and
Speaker 2: a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week
Speaker 2: over time. Kansas City is not a team that blows
Speaker 2: people out. Denver, meanwhile, faced what teams do and they
Speaker 2: realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and
Speaker 2: play an angry Ravens team. They hammered last year, the Niners,
Speaker 2: the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.
Speaker 2: Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be
Speaker 2: just like not any other place in the league, nobody.
Speaker 2: No team humiliates more teams then Baltimore in a bad
Speaker 2: mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean
Speaker 2: McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best
Speaker 2: coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,
Speaker 2: I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,
Speaker 2: they didn't get crushed, Okay, so don't just wipe that away.
Speaker 2: Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.
Speaker 2: Division rivals. One team's humiliated. One team on a short
Speaker 2: weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
Speaker 2: I still like denverse seven and a half sharper square.
Speaker 5: It was a gift at nine, It was a gift
Speaker 5: at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and
Speaker 5: a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where
Speaker 5: you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do
Speaker 5: not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys
Speaker 5: are going to be on a huge and in this
Speaker 5: case seven is huge division road underdog. Those ten to
Speaker 5: two favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.
Speaker 5: When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,
Speaker 5: he has a losing record against the spread. They're not
Speaker 5: the kind of team. And I know you've talked about
Speaker 5: this as well. They are not a blow them out
Speaker 5: team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with
Speaker 5: DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more out of the flow,
Speaker 5: and them understanding who they are offensively now, but they
Speaker 5: are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,
Speaker 5: they're beating teams by five or six points a game,
Speaker 5: right so they are not the kind of team, and
Speaker 5: especially in the second half, they slow it down. They
Speaker 5: get leads in the first half and then they slow
Speaker 5: it down in the second half. The Broncos have a
Speaker 5: great defense, and you can say everything you just said
Speaker 5: about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.
Speaker 5: They went on the road, they got throttled. The first
Speaker 5: play of the game, bo Nix throws an interception off
Speaker 5: of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong
Speaker 5: for them the rest of the day. But this is
Speaker 5: a team that continues to grind and play to the
Speaker 5: whistle and play to the end of the game. I
Speaker 5: know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true
Speaker 5: because Bonnicks is being treated as if he's a third
Speaker 5: or fourth year quarterback, not a first year quarterback. So
Speaker 5: the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in this
Speaker 5: game and keep the back door open, and the Chiefs
Speaker 5: will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,
Speaker 5: one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that
Speaker 5: are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the
Speaker 5: Broncos are fifty against spread, So.
Speaker 2: There are times when I just don't think teams are
Speaker 2: going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half
Speaker 2: Texans at home against the Lions, and Detroit has this
Speaker 2: is not a game that you have circled as a
Speaker 2: Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,
Speaker 2: in division teams. This is kind of one of those
Speaker 2: weird Hey, we got to go on the road and
Speaker 2: play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit
Speaker 2: and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This
Speaker 2: is we got to get right three and a half.
Speaker 2: I think you come out of a divisional game with
Speaker 2: green Bay really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,
Speaker 2: but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's
Speaker 2: the home team where you feel like there's real urgency
Speaker 2: to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three
Speaker 2: and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 5: Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to
Speaker 5: three and a half, and I think that the wise
Speaker 5: guys are with you here. But three will be the
Speaker 5: tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys
Speaker 5: will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
Speaker 5: The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is
Speaker 5: in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,
Speaker 5: physical travels in football right, running backs can have a
Speaker 5: bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better
Speaker 5: outdoors than indoors offensive lines. All you're doing is lining
Speaker 5: up across the guy in front of you and beating
Speaker 5: him up, and the Lions do that better than any
Speaker 5: offensive line in the league. I think that is why
Speaker 5: you know last week, all the professional betters were all
Speaker 5: over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the Lions
Speaker 5: are going to be outside Jared Goff has a bulky ankle.
Speaker 5: This is the spot where you're going to fade a
Speaker 5: team that everybody had been making money on, even as
Speaker 5: big favorites, because they thought. We thought we'd see the
Speaker 5: letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't happen like
Speaker 5: the physical travel. So I do worry about the Texans
Speaker 5: being able to out physical the Lions, especially. We don't
Speaker 5: know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in that Jets
Speaker 5: game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out, the
Speaker 5: Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the Jets
Speaker 5: took that game over. So it is it's the right side.
Speaker 5: The wise guys are playing it. It's not my favorite, though.
Speaker 2: Here's a game where I understand the hook and so
Speaker 2: people won't bet this side. But there are teams that
Speaker 2: I think get healthy or get right, and the market's
Speaker 2: not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going to
Speaker 2: be a problem this point forward. When you look at
Speaker 2: that receiving cor last week and all of a sudden
Speaker 2: you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now, it's
Speaker 2: actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Laddin, McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,
Speaker 2: you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I
Speaker 2: think they're going to start reeling off some kind of
Speaker 2: punishing dominant wins Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,
Speaker 2: even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued,
Speaker 2: I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would
Speaker 2: take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans for the record.
Speaker 2: When we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools
Speaker 2: gold like they can hang bad teams. I've seen them
Speaker 2: overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square. Chargers
Speaker 2: seven and a half, what say you.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's totally square. The only side to take here
Speaker 5: is the Titans. Either don't bet it, or take the Titans.
Speaker 5: I'm not betting this game. I'm a huge Chargers backer.
Speaker 5: Last week, everybody was saying the Browns are cresting. You
Speaker 5: gotta get the Browns right now. Jamis is back and
Speaker 5: I looked at that game and we talked about this
Speaker 5: on the Favorites several times because it made no sense
Speaker 5: to me. The Chargers were two point favorites on the road,
Speaker 5: and if you break down that handicap, Chargers should have
Speaker 5: been two point favorites on the road. They have the
Speaker 5: better quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They have
Speaker 5: a really good physical offensive line. We just talked about
Speaker 5: the Lions. I see the Chargers built in the same
Speaker 5: mold as the Lions as we build the next twelve
Speaker 5: twenty fourth threety six months with what Horriba was trying
Speaker 5: to do there. I love this Chargers team. I think
Speaker 5: seven and a half points is too high. There's too
Speaker 5: much quirkiness that can come into play in these games
Speaker 5: when the number is that high and there's a hook involved.
Speaker 2: Okay, here's a game. And I hate to do this
Speaker 2: because I really really liked the Rams and their young
Speaker 2: defense a lot. It was plus two and a half,
Speaker 2: and I really liked Miami at two and a half.
Speaker 2: Now it's down to one, so I think it won.
Speaker 2: I would take the Rams, but there's a game every
Speaker 2: week where I'm like, tell me what to bet. I really,
Speaker 2: I think the Rams are so talented defensively. Defensively, they
Speaker 2: have not missed on a draft pick, a defensive draft
Speaker 2: pick in two years. One of their safeties is an
Speaker 2: undrafted rookie from Tennessee the volunteers. Heiss four picks. The
Speaker 2: other kid from Miami is a pick six kid. I
Speaker 2: mean like they're hitting on everybody, verse the two Florida
Speaker 2: State guys young, I mean everyone. They all Kobe Turner
Speaker 2: from Wake Forest, they all are good. They're all better
Speaker 2: than their draft spot. I want to take the Rams
Speaker 2: so bad, but that numbers moving around, it tells me
Speaker 2: the Sharps were on Miami, right.
Speaker 5: The wise guys have been all over Miami. And I'll
Speaker 5: tell you know you and I but we did our
Speaker 5: Sunday show at ESPN. We always had a pick where
Speaker 5: we went against the wise guys and we called it
Speaker 5: the executive decision, and you just nailed the game. That
Speaker 5: is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.
Speaker 5: I feel like the Rams. I bet the Rams last
Speaker 5: week as favorites against the Seahawks, a miracle cover. But
Speaker 5: Matthew Stafford. There are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,
Speaker 5: it's the end of the game. I need this guy
Speaker 5: to get me the cover, or I don't want to
Speaker 5: be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,
Speaker 5: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people
Speaker 5: that you don't want to be against. I don't want
Speaker 5: to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get
Speaker 5: Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team
Speaker 5: was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,
Speaker 5: the other guy from Florida State. He had a great
Speaker 5: game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I
Speaker 5: think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like you know, I'm
Speaker 5: revealing a secret. His offense as magical as it is,
Speaker 5: as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Poka
Speaker 5: Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
Speaker 5: basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is
Speaker 5: a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around
Speaker 5: running back in the league right now. And that Miami
Speaker 5: Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So
Speaker 5: I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.
Speaker 5: I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking. I'm
Speaker 5: with you, I don't see it. I don't see why
Speaker 5: the Wise guys are on the Dolphins. If you want
Speaker 5: to exact decision this, I'm with you one hundred percent.
Speaker 2: Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus
Speaker 2: four at the Colts. You know, if this is a
Speaker 2: division game, it's different. I do worry about this. Quarterbacks
Speaker 2: off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember
Speaker 2: the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,
Speaker 2: better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.
Speaker 2: Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're
Speaker 2: not the people now look at Buffalo and they look
Speaker 2: at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed. No
Speaker 2: old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours.
Speaker 2: I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really
Speaker 2: really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Speaker 5: Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at
Speaker 5: four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.
Speaker 5: A lot of three and a half's out there now.
Speaker 5: The Wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.
Speaker 5: Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys
Speaker 5: like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.
Speaker 5: The Bills are seven to two. They just came off
Speaker 5: of a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field
Speaker 5: goal Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up
Speaker 5: the first week in November, huge huge cell high situation.
Speaker 5: The Colts, big deal Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 5: That gives us a better chance to win. They go
Speaker 5: into Minnesota in primetime, they can't even get past the
Speaker 5: twenty yard line, right, they cannot score. So all of
Speaker 5: a sudden, you've got to buy low. So that's one
Speaker 5: scenario in which the wise guys feel like it's overinflated
Speaker 5: because of what happened in national television for the Cults.
Speaker 5: And then you got to look, the Colts have a
Speaker 5: dominant run blocking unit that is to the detriment of
Speaker 5: the Bills rush defense. So in a lot of different metrics,
Speaker 5: whether it's yards per play, yards are expected points on
Speaker 5: the rush, total rushes of ten plus yards, which is
Speaker 5: sort of an explosive metric, the Cults are top five
Speaker 5: the Bills are not very good defending against the run,
Speaker 5: so there is an advantage there, and the Cults rush
Speaker 5: defense has been getting much better. We saw that against
Speaker 5: the Vikings with Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there
Speaker 5: is an opportunity here against what is the strength of
Speaker 5: the Bills defense or offense to stop them. So the
Speaker 5: Wise Guys are huge, huge fans of the culture.
Speaker 2: And every week there's a game I miss it's usually
Speaker 2: egregiously bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the
Speaker 2: favor it's all odds provided by DraftKings. What's the game
Speaker 2: I missed? It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Speaker 5: Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,
Speaker 5: with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line
Speaker 5: jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.
Speaker 5: I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most
Speaker 5: people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna
Speaker 5: ask you to do anything with that game. I will say,
Speaker 5: the Wise guys have been on the Giants against the
Speaker 5: Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask you
Speaker 5: to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised, like
Speaker 5: you brought up all the games that are most interesting
Speaker 5: to me.
Speaker 4: One game.
Speaker 5: There's two games we didn't discuss. One is a little
Speaker 5: high profile. I'm surprised you to bring it up, which
Speaker 5: is the Steelers in the Commoner.
Speaker 2: So every week there's a game I want to watch.
Speaker 2: I just want to watch it. I think it's a
Speaker 2: fascinating game. There's an argument to be made the Steelers
Speaker 2: have the best defense in the league. They've really figured out,
Speaker 2: by the way, how to use Russell Wilson, and like
Speaker 2: Greg Cosell told me today, I said, it reminds me
Speaker 2: a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run, defensive culture
Speaker 2: one one, two, good weapons, a tough place to play
Speaker 2: at home. He goes, But that's exactly what the video
Speaker 2: tells you. It's a poor man Seahawks team. I kind
Speaker 2: of like Pittsburgh here, right, getting points, Yes.
Speaker 5: You do. What's scary is you can't get to three anymore,
Speaker 5: right because it was at three. When it got to three, guys,
Speaker 5: they immediately bet the three and it went down to
Speaker 5: two and a half. And it's just sort of sitting
Speaker 5: at two and a half. I would still play the
Speaker 5: two and a half. Two is a key number in
Speaker 5: the NFL. Now with all the extra points being missed
Speaker 5: or teams going for two more often, so I wouldn't
Speaker 5: be afraid of the two and a half. But this
Speaker 5: is really the best defense. You just noted that Jayden
Speaker 5: Daniels has faced from two defensive ends who can really
Speaker 5: rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith was out for
Speaker 5: most of October, their rush metrics are not as high
Speaker 5: as they normally are. But he's been back and this
Speaker 5: is really a stellar defense. It's also a Row rob
Speaker 5: Mike tomlinst you got Mike Tomlin the.
Speaker 2: Best underdog coach. Burrow is the best underdog quarterback I believe,
Speaker 2: and I believe Tomlin getting two and a half points
Speaker 2: here against Washington's the best underdog coach.
Speaker 4: Colin.
Speaker 5: The numbers back you up. Mike Tomlin sixty percent against
Speaker 5: spread as a dog on the road in his career.
Speaker 5: He is the most profitable coach as an underdog against
Speaker 5: the spread this generation in the history of data that
Speaker 5: we have tracking all this stuff going back about twenty years.
Speaker 5: The most profitable coach in this situation also twenty five
Speaker 5: and five straight up against rookie QBS. Everyone is looking
Speaker 5: for the moment to sell the Commanders because they've been
Speaker 5: extraordinarily good. The Steelers off of with these two defensive
Speaker 5: ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach. Might be the
Speaker 5: time to do it, But I didn't give you the
Speaker 5: gross game. Can I interest you in the New Orleans
Speaker 5: Saints plus three and a half against the Atlanta Fountains?
Speaker 2: No, you can't at all.
Speaker 5: Yes, we are playing. We are playing the dead cat bounce.
Speaker 5: We have a team that has a new coach that
Speaker 5: got rid of the guy who, by all accounts, and
Speaker 5: we've been hearing this for more than a year, they
Speaker 5: hated Dennis.
Speaker 2: How many points.
Speaker 5: They've been out on Dennis Auten. They're getting three and
Speaker 5: a half Saints. They were here. Here's the thing, the
Speaker 5: Saints are getting three and a half. They were getting four.
Speaker 5: It's down to three and a half. So you know,
Speaker 5: the wise guys are on them because the public is
Speaker 5: betting the Falcons. So we got a pro Joe split here.
Speaker 5: This team played so badly last week. The most popular player,
Speaker 5: Cam Jordan apologized on Twitter. And if you look at
Speaker 5: the games Derek Carters started, Look, they've lost seven in
Speaker 5: a row for those games with Derek Carr. One of
Speaker 5: those games Kansas City. They lost twenty six to thirteen,
Speaker 5: but it was closer than the score the other The
Speaker 5: other three games they were by three points, two points
Speaker 5: in one point, including one of these games against Atlanta.
Speaker 5: So I know, like the receivers are out. They just
Speaker 5: traded Latimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to the Commanders.
Speaker 5: But this is the spot to back the Saints. You
Speaker 5: just got to hold your nose and do it. You
Speaker 5: might not bet them again the rest of the year.
Speaker 5: It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came
Speaker 5: in because you knew there'd be some kind of change.
Speaker 5: Derek Carr second game back, new coach.
Speaker 4: This is it.
Speaker 5: There's the whole ball of wax So and this Atlanta
Speaker 5: team had generally been mediocre. Like they're not blowing teams out,
Speaker 5: they're getting really lucky. It's it's a situation where the
Speaker 5: number is a little bit in f because the Falcons
Speaker 5: have been doing so well and the public sentiment on
Speaker 5: the Saints is so low, so the wise guys are
Speaker 5: on the Saints.
Speaker 2: And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so
Speaker 2: it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used
Speaker 2: like pro bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got
Speaker 2: a hamstring issue. Yeah, so much stuff.
Speaker 1: Ride with it.
Speaker 4: Do it? Do it? Come on.
Speaker 5: The volume.
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