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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: time is it? Game Time? Instant re action on the

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Speaker 2: Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five to thirty four, another

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Speaker 2: great Thursday night football game, one of the best games

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Speaker 2: of the year. This is I had the Bengals plus

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Speaker 2: six tonight for this very reason. These are great rivals,

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Speaker 2: two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses, you know,

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Speaker 2: this is why Kansas City should be favored to win

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Speaker 2: the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work. In fact,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about going for two. I would have gone

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Speaker 2: for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses, you know,

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Speaker 2: if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense first half

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Speaker 2: a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great, they've got momentum.

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Speaker 2: But eventually a bad defense gets more tired, it gets

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Speaker 2: more beat up. You lose a couple of players who

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Speaker 2: get banged up, and by the end of the game,

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Speaker 2: you know Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they get exposed.

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Speaker 2: A lot of defenses have a really good first quarter.

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Speaker 2: A lot of defenses you know when they've got great energy.

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Speaker 2: They're aggressive offenses, and big games can be a little tight,

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Speaker 2: restrictive conservative. But over the course of a game, these

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Speaker 2: are not great defenses, and both Joe Burrow and Lamar

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Speaker 2: Jackson just lit the defenses up. I would have gone

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Speaker 2: for it. First of all, I think aggressive wins. I'm

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Speaker 2: usually a go for it teams that go to overtime

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Speaker 2: generally historically don't play well the next week. The extra

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Speaker 2: fifteen snaps or whatever it is. So I think Zach

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Speaker 2: Taylor made the right call. But you know, I want

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Speaker 2: to talk about something. Is one of the things the

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Speaker 2: media does that really frustrates me that they don't consider

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Speaker 2: how society adapts. They overreact to things. I could give

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Speaker 2: you multiple examples. I was listening to a podcast recently

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Speaker 2: and the guy was talking about, you know, one hundred

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Speaker 2: years ago or more, you know, people thought we were

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Speaker 2: going to run out of food, but you know, things

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Speaker 2: happen fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more people

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Speaker 2: die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I remember

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Speaker 2: when I was a kid back in the late eighties,

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Speaker 2: eighty seven eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go

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Speaker 2: from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and

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Speaker 2: now it can be faster than that. But there was this,

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Speaker 2: you know, sense from the media it was car desks

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Speaker 2: were going to explode, and they did increase initially on

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Speaker 2: rural roads. But over the course of time, there's technology

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Speaker 2: advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars, and

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Speaker 2: society adapts and the media has to do a better job,

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll give you

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Speaker 2: another example. During COVID college football media is like myocarditis.

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Speaker 2: You can get an infection through a virus. It's going

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Speaker 2: to kill college football players. Well, first of all, on average,

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Speaker 2: it's treatable, and on average, the person that gets myocarditis

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Speaker 2: is in their mid forties, nineteen to twenty years old,

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Speaker 2: in elite shape. So again, it's the overreaction to things

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Speaker 2: that either somebody writes a story in the media and

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Speaker 2: then everybody jumps on board and copies it out of

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Speaker 2: just apathy or laziness, or they don't do their homework,

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Speaker 2: or they're just overreacting and not considering. There's just a

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Speaker 2: lot of smart people out there, whether it's on the

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Speaker 2: processing of food, the creation of food, whether it's manufacturing

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Speaker 2: better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines. During COVID,

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Speaker 2: people figure stuff out. And the reason I bring this

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Speaker 2: up we had another great Thursday night game. We've had

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Speaker 2: multiple great Thursday night games. This is one of the

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Speaker 2: best games of the year. Minnesota and the Rams was

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Speaker 2: a good Thursday night game. San Francisco in Seattle, Tampa Bay,

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Speaker 2: Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good as an

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Speaker 2: NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 2: showing off is that I remember about four years ago

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Speaker 2: and the media was going through a weird time. There

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Speaker 2: were some cultural changes. It's when the word woke started

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Speaker 2: being used a lot, and you know, it can be overused,

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Speaker 2: and it was overused, but it does exist. And the media

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Speaker 2: was just on this thing that Thursday Night football. It

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Speaker 2: was unfair to players, and it was like I talked

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Speaker 2: to NFL players and they like Thursday Night Football. You

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Speaker 2: didn't hit that week. It was a real light week

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Speaker 2: of practice and then you know you're off after the

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Speaker 2: game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday. So a

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Speaker 2: lot of guys it's like a second by a lot

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Speaker 2: of guys on the West Coast would go to Hawaii

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Speaker 2: or Mexico. A lot of guys in the East Coast

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Speaker 2: would go to the Bahamas. They treated it as a

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Speaker 2: second bye week. And so this idea that it was

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Speaker 2: too much for NFL players. These are twenty five year

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Speaker 2: old world class athletes that spend six and seven figures

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Speaker 2: on their bodies, They've got great training staffs around them.

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Speaker 2: They're going to be okay. And I think again today,

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Speaker 2: did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do they look

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Speaker 2: overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game? Of course not.

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Speaker 2: And again it's just I'm part of the media and

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Speaker 2: I've overreacted before. But I thought what you saw tonight, well,

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Speaker 2: these Thursday night games, they like to get these divisional

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Speaker 2: rival games that are close. They don't want to have

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Speaker 2: to travel too far on a Thursday. They want the

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Speaker 2: game to be regional or divisional, and these this was

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Speaker 2: a perfect Thursday night game. Great quarterback play, two teams

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Speaker 2: that know each other to you know, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think Zach Taytor is a smart, clever offensive coach, and

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Speaker 2: I think John Harbaugh's great and the teams. You know,

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Speaker 2: clearly Baltimore looked a little off early, but you know,

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Speaker 2: they adapt their pro athletes. I thought it was a

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Speaker 2: classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow having

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Speaker 2: to overcome a terrible defense. And I mean Baltimore's isn't

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Speaker 2: great either, but through the years it has been pretty

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Speaker 2: consistently solid. Now the Ravens have really poured more money

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Speaker 2: into their offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley. They just went

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Speaker 2: and got Deontay Johnson. So they're pouring more of the

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Speaker 2: money in offense, which is where NFL teams should spend

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Speaker 2: their money. But I never worry about Baltimore being cheap

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Speaker 2: or trying to save a nickel here or there, or Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: That's the Brown family's history. So I just feel like,

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Speaker 2: you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA. He's

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Speaker 2: not going to demand a trade. But I do think

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Speaker 2: he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting up

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Speaker 2: numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they did

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Speaker 2: everything they could possibly do. I thought I thought there

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Speaker 2: was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion that

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Speaker 2: was un called not called, which is unfortunate, and I

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen, when

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Speaker 2: you give up the points in the yards that Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,

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Speaker 2: and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: at the end the games, officials are best served swallowing

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Speaker 2: the whistle. I mean, one of the things I noticed

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, and I'm sure you've noticed this is

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Speaker 2: over the course of the last eight to ten to

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Speaker 2: twelve years, the amount of contact that is allowed on

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Speaker 2: the perimeter is insane. You could call pass interference on

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Speaker 2: every play. And I think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence

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Speaker 2: on the sport, where you know, the Patriots just they

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Speaker 2: were physical, they grabbed, they touched, they'd wear the same

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Speaker 2: colored gloves as the team they were playing's uniform, and

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Speaker 2: they were just it was constant conflict and touching. You're

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Speaker 2: not going to call pass the interference on every play.

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Speaker 2: And so the reality over time it's been normalized on

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Speaker 2: the edges that you just you got to grab. Now

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Speaker 2: you can't put your arm around a guy, but you

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Speaker 2: can call pass interference constantly in this league. And they

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Speaker 2: and Baltimore was flagged for it tonight several times. Personal

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Speaker 2: fouls and pass interference on a play like that. Good

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Speaker 2: luck on the road getting that call. And again, it's

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Speaker 2: not like Cincinnati played flawless football. Their defense was a mess.

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Speaker 2: They're tackling was bad. I do love this about Lamar

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Speaker 2: Jackson and I've said this before and I'll say it again.

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Speaker 2: The guy was two hundred and ninety yards four touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: trailed by fourteen and the third. One of the things

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Speaker 2: I love about Lamar, and this is certainly the case

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Speaker 2: with a Josh Allen and to Patrick Mahomes, you just

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Speaker 2: don't know when they're trailing. If you watch them play.

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Speaker 2: They don't play any different when they're trailing them when

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Speaker 2: they're leading. And I've always thought the line in this league,

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Speaker 2: the difference between the haves and the have nuts in

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Speaker 2: quarterback play is the average quarterbacks in this league press

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Speaker 2: when they're behind, when you know they have to throw.

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Speaker 2: A Geno Smith a good player, but they don't feel

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Speaker 2: the same. You're watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and

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Speaker 2: half in the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: You can't tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change

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Speaker 2: his body language, his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such

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Speaker 2: a special, all time athlete. And this nonsense that he's

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Speaker 2: not a pocket quarterback, which thankfully that's people have moved

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Speaker 2: away from that. He's exceptional, really good job too. He's

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Speaker 2: got a little bit of a different throwing style, so

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Speaker 2: did Philip Rivers. You know, some guys just have a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a different you know, Justin Herbert looks

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Speaker 2: like he could be the NFL logo. He's got that

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Speaker 2: perfect stance, you know, had like Jerry West was the

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Speaker 2: NBA logo, the late Jerry West that Justin Herbert. If

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Speaker 2: the NFL ever did a player logo, it would be

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Speaker 2: a quarterback and Justin Herbert literally could be the logo.

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Speaker 2: He's got the perfect long stride. But a lot of

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Speaker 2: these guys have kind of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes

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Speaker 2: throws off his he's not even on the ground. So

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Speaker 2: Lamar's got a little bit of a different style. It's

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Speaker 2: a little bit more of a flip. I think Kyler

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Speaker 2: Murray's got one of the prettiest throws throwing motions in

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Speaker 2: the league. But it just works, and he has an ability.

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Speaker 2: Lamar has an ability to. I think it's body confidence

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Speaker 2: that he can stare all over the field and then

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Speaker 2: just in a quarter second suddenly look over to the

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Speaker 2: sideline where they camp a guy and make a beautiful

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Speaker 2: throw of eight to twelve yards. He's just he's really

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Speaker 2: got a sense of composure and self awareness and accuracy,

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Speaker 2: and you know, he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow product

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Speaker 2: clinic tonight. It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: And again, these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic.

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Speaker 2: And the only thing I don't like about Thursday night

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Speaker 2: football two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL

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Speaker 2: won't play Sunday. And that's the downside to you know,

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Speaker 2: if you do Thursday night football and you do Monday

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Speaker 2: night football, So you know, Monday night Tua and Matt

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Speaker 2: Stafford are playing, and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow. So four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: in the league are not playing Sunday. You know, So

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Speaker 2: you know, I can only take so much. Will Levis, Sorry,

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Speaker 2: it's that's the only knock to me on these Thursday

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Speaker 2: night football games. Seven years ago, these games six years ago,

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Speaker 2: the games were awful. I mean it was like you

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Speaker 2: felt like you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing

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Speaker 2: bumblebee uniforms. Now they you know, they're putting up an

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Speaker 2: almost every Thursday night football game this year. I think

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Speaker 2: it's the best Thursday night schedule. You've got a star

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Speaker 2: quarterback tonight you had two and and if you didn't

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Speaker 2: enjoy that, I don't you know. I like defense occasionally,

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Speaker 2: but if you didn't enjoy that, like it's not your

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Speaker 2: it's not your sport, that was just great. Great. Also

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Speaker 2: had Cincinnati plus six. Didn't know if I was going

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Speaker 2: to win that at one point. But I don't think

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Speaker 2: less of Baltimore because it's close. These division rival games.

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Speaker 2: You get four, five six points. If you have a

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Speaker 2: capable quarterback in a division rivalry game, take the points.

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is one of the I think he's five

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Speaker 2: and zero this year as a as an underdog against

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Speaker 2: the spread on the road this year, Joe Burrows A

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Speaker 2: he's a great He's now seventeen and three. Is Joe

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Speaker 2: Burrow as a three point or more underdog as an

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Speaker 2: NFL quarterback seventeen and three. Now the Emirates NBA Cup

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Speaker 2: All right, John Middlecoff, It's time for our hour plus

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Speaker 2: on a Sunday. He is the former NFL scout for

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Speaker 2: the Philadelphia Eagles Three and Out podcast. Let's start with

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Speaker 2: a team you're near and dear to the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Speaker 2: So they did it on the ground, in the air.

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Speaker 2: They beat the Jags twenty eight to twenty three, although

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville with a massive late game comeback, Trevor Lawrence one

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Speaker 2: got a little loose Onnomy through a pick in the

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Speaker 2: end zone. You know, my takeaway on this is, I'll

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Speaker 2: go back to saying this, Jalen's not making the mistakes

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Speaker 2: and Barkley, Saquon Barkley's absolutely With Christian McCaffrey not playing yet,

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Speaker 2: Barkley's the best running back in the league. And I

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Speaker 2: think what Jalen hurts as they win today, My take

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Speaker 2: is they've gotten him out of the position where I

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Speaker 2: don't feel like he's ad libbing or out of control

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Speaker 2: like I thought Jordan loved today for the Packers was

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Speaker 2: out of control multiple times. I kind of think Philadelphia's

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Speaker 2: figured out kind of the way to use Allen. What

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Speaker 2: do you see?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think Saquan's definitely changed their team. I mean

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Speaker 1: he's been him and Derrick Henry you talk about additions

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Speaker 1: this offseason, those two guys. I mean, Dereck Henry was

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Speaker 1: probably a Hall of Fame player before this. Now he

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Speaker 1: cemented himself. I mean, there's no one's ever questioned Saquan's talent.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what would Penn State do to have that

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Speaker 1: guy right now on their team? I mean, they did

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Speaker 1: have an offensive weapon, but to me, I mean, the

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Speaker 1: only reason that game was close was Sirianni and Kellen.

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Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure what was going on there with

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Speaker 1: some of the play calling. Yeah, they instead of kicking

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Speaker 1: a field goal, I didn't get that, decided not to

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Speaker 1: do the tush push and they roll him out and

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Speaker 1: he's got nowhere to go. Like right now, their offense,

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Speaker 1: I mean AJ Brown, which is a pretty big deal.

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Speaker 1: Not maybe in this game, but I guess they play

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys next week, so not in that game either,

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Speaker 1: but in two weeks against Washington.

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Speaker 4: His presence for them to beat really good teams as

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Speaker 4: a must have.

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Speaker 1: But when you're playing a team like today, DeVante Smith

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Speaker 1: what a draft pick. I mean, I thought, wait, this

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Speaker 1: guy's gonna be one hundred and seventy five pounds.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he would last in this league.

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Speaker 1: How about his one handed touchdown? Oh my god, so

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Speaker 1: you ad Saquon to him? I mean the guy that

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Speaker 1: had the game winning interception to Kobe Dean. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they have a lot of young defensive players. The last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks, Nolan Smith has been all over the

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Speaker 1: quarterback like I trust Vic Fangio. To me, it just

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Speaker 1: gets down to Sirianni who if they had lost today,

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Speaker 1: Colin to Doug Peterson and the Jags who they had fired,

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Speaker 1: do you know, I mean Embiid would have been let

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Speaker 1: off the hook because it would have been a Siria

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Speaker 1: You cannot lose that game. And it got weird obviously

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Speaker 1: the freak Saquon fumble, But that's a little too close

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Speaker 1: for comfort given how well their top guys were playing.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean Barkley was great. Jalen went like

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Speaker 2: eighteen to twenty four, two hundred and thirty yards. No,

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Speaker 2: you know, no interceptions there. The receivers that were on

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Speaker 2: the field were excellent. They actually, I mean they they

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Speaker 2: had four hundred and fifty plus yards of offense six

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Speaker 2: point five yards per play. They were great on third down.

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Speaker 2: They dominate time of possession, and you look up and

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Speaker 2: you're like, you're at home and it's twenty eight twenty three.

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Speaker 4: It's they were up twenty two. Nothing right.

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Speaker 1: It looked like they were gonna blow him out forty

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Speaker 1: to ten or something.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I just feel like I kind of feel like this

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Speaker 2: is the rare instance. And I felt this a couple

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Speaker 2: of years ago with Detroit. But I've come to terms

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Speaker 2: with Ben Johnson, the coordinator for the Lions. I didn't trust.

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Speaker 2: I really didn't trust Dan Campbell.

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Speaker 4: I do now.

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Speaker 2: I think he has grown. I think he's a little

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Speaker 2: less emotional now. I also think he realizes he's no

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Speaker 2: longer hunting, he's being hunted. They're the favorite. I think

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Speaker 2: he I think like today they got a lead, they

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Speaker 2: got real smart, they got real conservative. It was really

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Speaker 2: really smart Lions football. I feel like Siriani's like Dan

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Speaker 2: Campbell a couple of years ago. He's still trying to

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Speaker 2: prove himself. I want to show you guys how smart

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Speaker 2: I am. And then when you make mistakes like yelling

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Speaker 2: at the crowd and get your hands slapped by the owners,

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Speaker 2: then you kind of double down on I want to

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Speaker 2: show how smart I am. And there I just think

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Speaker 2: with Dan Campbell I've seen growth. I do think he's

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Speaker 2: a better, more mature coach today. And with Siriani, I

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna get to the playoffs, and I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have all these weapons and outplay people, and

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna lose to a really smart, efficient team.

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Speaker 2: Atlanta beats the Cowboys twenty seven to twenty one. So

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Speaker 2: if you didn't watch this game, I could sum it

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Speaker 2: up with the multiple fall starts, the nine penalties for Dallas,

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Speaker 2: too many men on the field, and a fourth down.

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Speaker 2: Atlanta basically got out rushed, out passed. But Dallas was

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Speaker 2: so bad on fourth down, so many pedalties, so inefficient,

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Speaker 2: and Kirk Cousins just go out, goes out nineteen and

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Speaker 2: twenty four, doesn't make any big mistakes. Like Atlanta's not

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Speaker 2: physically impressive, but Atlanta's really efficient because they brought Kirk

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Speaker 2: Cousins in, who just doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

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Speaker 2: He gets you in and out of plays. When I

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Speaker 2: watched Dallas today, Mike McCary, Mike McCarthy's frustration with you.

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Speaker 2: I mean, when you have Dak Prescott, they're a veteran team,

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Speaker 2: you can't have false starts, illegal motions like it feels

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Speaker 2: like to me, that is so much on the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Now he left and Cooper Rush came in. But I

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Speaker 2: you know, I had said before the year, this was

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Speaker 2: one of my I guess I'm actually wrong on this.

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Speaker 2: I said Dallas won't make the playoffs. It'll be Philadelphia

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Speaker 2: and Washington in that division. It will begin a slight regression. John.

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Speaker 2: They may be a bottom four team in the league.

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Speaker 2: And I'm dead serious. They're they're they're better than the

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Speaker 2: Raiders because of dak uh Hell and Cooper Rush. I

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Speaker 2: think they're better than Carolina, probably better than New Orleans

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Speaker 2: now they weren't in Week two. Dallas is a bad

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Speaker 2: football team without a lot of good players.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I thought coming into this week we were gonna learn, like,

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Speaker 1: are they just going to end up sucking all season

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Speaker 1: and being a five or six win team or they

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Speaker 1: gonna have a little heart and battle and you know,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the year be eight to nine.

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Speaker 1: But if shown some metal throughout the year, I think

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Speaker 1: they're headed toward five or six wins now. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: today didn't it Simbal Eyes before the game even kicked off,

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Speaker 1: they less they left Zeke back at home Yeah, all

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Speaker 1: I had heard from Cowboys people is listen, we know

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have as much, but the leadership, yeah, the camaraderie,

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Speaker 1: him and Dak are close. And then these stories about

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Speaker 1: he never shows up on time, he's disgruntled.

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Speaker 4: It's like, well, then Whysey on the team?

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Speaker 1: And is that a little bit I'm not putting this

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Speaker 1: all on Dak, but isn't that Dak's one of his

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Speaker 1: best friends? Like, so what do we got going on there?

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Speaker 1: And then as the game goes on today it was

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Speaker 1: a reflection of they don't have that much talent. Oh

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Speaker 1: how often today Jesus even on like just random innocuous

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Speaker 1: plays Bijon in space out in the flat and three

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Speaker 1: guys would whiff and he'd get eight yards. That should

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Speaker 1: have been one.

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Speaker 2: Listen, John, on a fourth and one, they have so

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Speaker 2: little talent in the backfield. On a fourth and one,

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Speaker 2: they had to use deception on a quick on a

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Speaker 2: like a jet sweep to CD lamb. Now, yeah, it

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Speaker 2: worked about twenty minutes later, same play. But on a

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Speaker 2: fourth and one with a very quarterback Zach Martin, one

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Speaker 2: of the great guards ever, they had to get clever

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Speaker 2: and tricky. They have no run game. One of the

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Speaker 2: easiest predictions anybody could have made going into this season,

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Speaker 2: if Dallas would have the worst running back room in

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Speaker 2: the league. I mean, we watched Zeke in New England.

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Speaker 2: He can't he's done, it's over. They made no moves,

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Speaker 2: they they it's it's remarkable. Now, I'm not saying Derek

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Speaker 2: Henry would be as good as we've talked about in Dallas.

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Speaker 2: As Baltimore, you start looking at it. I've said before

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Speaker 2: the season, if Ceedee Lamb twisted an ankle, this is

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Speaker 2: the worst offense in the league. I mean, it's it's

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Speaker 2: it's I watched them today and I'm like, they it

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Speaker 2: was just all a cotton candy yards. I mean, Atlanta

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Speaker 2: was so much smarter, more efficient, good on third down.

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Speaker 4: I was.

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Speaker 1: I was playing golf the other day with a diehard

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Speaker 1: cowboy fan. This guy's been to countless games over the

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Speaker 1: last thirty years, and I asked him, do you think

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott's better than Tony Romo? And you were always

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Speaker 1: one of Tony's biggest defenders. Yeah, And he's said, you know,

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Speaker 1: I would have told you four or five years ago, yes,

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Speaker 1: but at this point in time, you can't watch these

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Speaker 1: games up until Tony's back went.

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00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 4: He was a more dynamic absolutely, absolutely, and in.

429
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: Twenty one, twenty two, and even last year, those teams

430
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 1: were so good. I mean in twenty one and twenty

431
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 1: two the Cowboys were really good.

432
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 4: I mean they had a.

433
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 1: Home playoff game, they were toe to toe with the

434
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: Niners in the second round, and they're I mean, Dak

435
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 1: didn't just have one bad play, like he.

436
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 4: Was atrocious through most of those games.

437
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 1: So I think, listen, this is not his fault, you know,

438
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,959
Speaker 1: in terms of the pie chart one if they go

439
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: six or seven or maybe five wins, but he has

440
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 1: kind of crumbled like he has not been an elevator,

441
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: talk about trailers and tractors, clear where he falls. And honestly,

442
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: today was just an embarrassing day for the organization. Yeah,

443
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: I mean I think Mike's hands were on it, Jerry's

444
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: hands were on it. Because the Zeke thing to me

445
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 1: symbolizes I thought that moment. I thought the Bears benching

446
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 1: the guy for like two series like this is we're

447
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 1: not little league or high school, We're not teaching life lessons.

448
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,159
Speaker 4: You either leave him at home, yeah.

449
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 1: And make him in active to show like this will

450
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 1: never be tolerated, or you just start him like this

451
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 1: is a business. You know, we're trying to win or lose.

452
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 4: I got nope.

453
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: I would have made him inactive to show everyone just

454
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 1: like the Cowboys did. Zeke, you're not showing up. But

455
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: there's no middle ground. This isn't high school football where

456
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 1: it's like you're gonna sit out the first series or

457
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: two like that.

458
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 4: That to me is so dumb.

459
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's embarrassing at the highest level. It's

460
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 1: just that's why you know, certain teams lose, and obviously

461
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 1: the same teams consistently win over and over.

462
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: A game today that I thought was important and symbolic,

463
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: Arizona crushes the Bears twenty nine to nine. Kyler Murray

464
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 2: barely had to throw. There was a lot of I mean,

465
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 2: they led twenty nine, twenty one to nine and a half.

466
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: I think the bigger story is Caleb Williams was ineffective.

467
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: The offensive line was overwhelmed. The offensive line. I've talked

468
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: about this so many times, John, defensive coaches and offensive

469
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: lines are a problem. The Bears. Klob's been out played

470
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 2: badly by Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels. The last two weeks,

471
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: he's dancing around in the back getting sacked by Arizona

472
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 2: offensive lines gotten worse. And I watched today there was

473
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: a safety on the Bears at one point as they

474
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: lost twenty nine to nine. There wasn't a There wasn't

475
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 2: once we got to the second quarter. There wasn't a

476
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: minute I thought Chicago could win. I think Caleb is

477
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 2: clearly Even though bow Knicks got rolled today, Baltimore at

478
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: homes much better. That was one of the easiest bets

479
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: of the year. Taking the Ravens minus eight to nine,

480
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: bow Knicks looks like he's got it to earned control.

481
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 2: I mean there's I think he really looks like for

482
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: the personnel they have, obviously Jade.

483
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 4: He actually didn't play terribly. No, no, no, he wasn't.

484
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 2: He just I mean, they don't have seven guys who

485
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 2: would start for the Ravens. They have Patrick Certan, maybe

486
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 2: a safety.

487
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 4: That's about it.

488
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: But when I look at Caleb right now, they average

489
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: three point four yards of play. It is screaming to

490
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: get rid of Matti Eberflus. I mean, I just a

491
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: whole game, I'm like this, it just doesn't work. He

492
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 2: doesn't have the right coordinator. It's a mess in Chicago.

493
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: Now, Well, if I had told you by the middle

494
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: of the season that if the Bears called up the

495
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders and said before the season and said, would

496
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: you trade Jaden Daniels straight up for Caleb Williams, and

497
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: the Commanders would laugh at them and hang up the phone,

498
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: you would have said the Bears have serious issues. Because

499
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 1: two things can be true. Today was an embarrassing day

500
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: for Eberflus, but so was last week, and so was

501
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: this offseason when it was pretty clear you're putting this

502
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 1: guy into a lame duck situation. This is not a

503
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: McCarthy that at least listen. I know he's under his

504
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: last year, but he has a long resume of success,

505
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 1: and he coaches the quarterback who you're going to pay

506
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: two hundred million dollars to.

507
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 4: This is a head coach, a he's a good defensive coach, never.

508
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: Won anything, and you have no faith that he's going

509
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: to do it, and now you have to fire him

510
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 1: a year in.

511
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 4: But I think the bigger picture you see it with

512
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence.

513
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: I mean, they brought in Doug and this is just

514
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: not going well for him relative to hype. These things

515
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: can snowball and get out of hand fast, and you invested,

516
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: Actually you didn't because you made the trade, but you

517
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: got this player. You chose him over these other players,

518
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: specifically Jayden, who again long way to go. I mean

519
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: ideally they both have fifteen year careers. Jayden Daniels is

520
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: currently one of the best players in the NFL, no

521
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: question like he's one of the best players in the NFL.

522
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 2: It looks totally under control.

523
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 1: And Caleb looks like a mid round pick forced to

524
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: start because a quarterback got injured in the preseason.

525
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,959
Speaker 4: He makes some plays, but he misses a lot of

526
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 4: stuff that Listen, we saw.

527
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: Him making college and this gets back to people that

528
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 1: were questioning him. He can freelance and get a little

529
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: willy nilly, and that doesn't really work in the NFL,

530
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: and you see him just get peppered. He's not comfortable

531
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: in the pocket. The coaching staff's terrible. I do think

532
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 1: the Tyreek Stevenson benching was just a joke. And if

533
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: I'm Eberflus, I wouldn't want him in active. I'd want

534
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 1: to just start them. But if you're Ryan Poles, you're

535
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: not going anywhere. You want to show all these other

536
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 1: guys that, like the standards are high, they're in no

537
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: man's land, right, they really are, And I doubt they

538
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: would fire I mean, that's a fireable game. I don't

539
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: expect the Bears to fire him. But like these last

540
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 1: two weeks, I mean they were thoroughly outplayed the week

541
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: before too right, it was you know, I know, the

542
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: Hail Mary, but they were worked that game, like we know,

543
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 1: before they even get to the tough stretch of their season,

544
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 1: Like this ain't a playoff team like this team, I

545
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: mean Arizona, that to me is like a fringe wild

546
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: card team. Just beat the living piss out of them.

547
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 1: I just can't take the Bear seriously anymore.

548
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 2: No, and this was supposed to be the two game

549
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,959
Speaker 2: stretch Arizona and New England next where they had a

550
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 2: shot right to make up some before they go into Detroit, Minnesota,

551
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: San Francisco, Green Bay. You know, I think there's I've

552
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 2: almost said there's one or two in football that are undervalued,

553
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: and yet there are things we know are valuable. I

554
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: think a great offensive coordinator or great offensive coach, you're

555
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 2: better on third down, you're better on offensive line. You're

556
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 2: better at drafting offensive personnel. I mean, the Rams just

557
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 2: figure out ways to mix and match their offensive line.

558
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 2: They're in a wild one with the Seahawks today, but

559
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 2: they're still you know, ham an egg and in the

560
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 2: interior of the offensive line. These defensive coaches. Chicago's offensive

561
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 2: line last year felt like an ascending group. You had

562
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: your tackles a little soft in the middle. It is

563
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: a mess with Caleb Williams mobility, it's a mess today.

564
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 2: So I just think you get to a point where

565
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: you I don't think people understand the difference between a

566
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 2: really smart offensive coach and an average defensive coach. It

567
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: is a touchdown to ten point difference a game.

568
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: I do think to that moment last week on the

569
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: Hail Mary was reflective of their head coach, right, because

570
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: let's take a couple of top defensive coaches, right Tomlin

571
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh especial teams guy, but he also the dB guy.

572
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: You could never envision that play with that player happening,

573
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: taunting the crowd like that. That just would never happen

574
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: with the Ravens and Steelers in that moment. So to me,

575
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: that reflected let alone, like he's been pretty good on defense.

576
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: Today he loses his best defensive player. James Connor looked

577
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: like Walter.

578
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 4: Payton against him.

579
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: I mean it was like, you guys are that dependent

580
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: on one guy. And offensively, I always talk about like

581
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: defensive guys know nothing about offense, right, I mean, they

582
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: know how to stop offenses, but they don't know. They're

583
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: not calling the plays, they're not in their coaching.

584
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 2: Brady Brady Brady made fun of Belichick not even understanding

585
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: the terminology of offense.

586
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just it's so the Bears.

587
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: Honestly, this goes back to what ten months ago, eleven

588
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: months ago, when they knew and they tried to have

589
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: their cake and eat it too and keep their fingers crossed.

590
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: And now they're gonna have to fire this guy, and

591
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 1: it sets the whole clock off when they could have

592
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 1: just started at scratch. Maybe Ben Johnson would have been interested,

593
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: Maybe they could have hired v Abel and just had

594
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: a fresh runway. Now you derail everything because one thing

595
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: you would say is like, well, eberflu is kind of

596
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 1: good on defense, so now you get a new guy.

597
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 1: Just it just you know, upsets the Apple card which

598
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: needed upsetting in January. I mean, and today was Today

599
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: was really bad because coming off that loss, I thought

600
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: two teams had huge bounce. Like to me, the Ravens

601
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: of last year blow the team out, and they did today.

602
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 4: So it's like, okay, you know the.

603
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: Browns game, weird Outliar Jamis got hot, throw that away.

604
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 4: The Ravens are the real deal.

605
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: And the Bears like, okay, if this is gonna be

606
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: a wildcard team, they come into Arizona.

607
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 4: Even if it's tight, Arizona's not easy. You win the game.

608
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 1: A lot of I live out here, I would imagine

609
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: that were half the stadium was Bears fans.

610
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, so it's a big deal for them. And they,

611
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 4: like you said, that game was over before it even started.

612
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 4: They got shellacked.

613
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 2: All right. I am feeling good about my picks this week.

614
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 2: I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,

615
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: three of the last four weeks had good college bets.

616
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 2: By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,

617
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 2: co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.

618
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 2: You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel

619
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay Short Week,

620
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye

621
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 2: in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean

622
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 2: all the things you'd want short week over time, other

623
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank

624
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 2: you draft Kings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some

625
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 2: jet Skis tonight, Sharper square, totally sharp.

626
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 5: The wise guys have loved this one. It was at

627
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 5: five and a half, got up to six, got up

628
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 5: to six and a half. Now it's settled in around six.

629
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 5: I will not be surprised if this gets up to

630
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:15,959
Speaker 5: six and a half. What's interesting about this game is,

631
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 5: you know, we talk all the time about the pro

632
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 5: joe split, right, the professionals on one side, the amateurs

633
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 5: on another. Normally, what you get is the Joe's the

634
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 5: amateurs like the big fancy favorite. In this case, the

635
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 5: jos have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have actually

636
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 5: been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season, And

637
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 5: because they look so good in overtime against the Chiefs

638
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 5: and the Niners have struggled, the Joe's have been coming

639
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 5: in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For your point,

640
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 5: they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like the Niners

641
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,959
Speaker 5: coming off a bye. They like having to fade the

642
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 5: Bucks traveling back home in a short week after overtime

643
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 5: to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.

644
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 5: And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking

645
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 5: at and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.

646
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 5: Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off

647
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 5: of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of

648
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 5: five and a half or more off a by on

649
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 5: the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells

650
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 5: you is that when a team is good and they're

651
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 5: off the by and they go on the road in

652
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 5: their favorites, they tend to overperform. And then you've got

653
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 5: the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are

654
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 5: terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,

655
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 5: all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage

656
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 5: against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys

657
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 5: are with you, Simon, Simon, Whise guys are with you, Colin.

658
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 5: I was thinking about my bff Simon one hundred on

659
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 5: the Niners.

660
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 2: Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals, play now.

661
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would

662
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 2: put me in a good mood. But I think extra

663
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 2: time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses

664
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 2: in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,

665
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 2: they're on their second play caller. There is no proof

666
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 2: that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona

667
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 2: at home now getting a point. I think people, I

668
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 2: know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high

669
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 2: on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.

670
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,320
Speaker 2: They got really good offensive players, and this is getting

671
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: to the point in the year when defensive players. I mean,

672
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not that good.

673
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square, all.

674
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 5: Right, Well it's square. And let's not use the Niners

675
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 5: win as a barometer of what this team is, right,

676
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,320
Speaker 5: because the Niners in that game, they they didn't have

677
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 5: a kicker. They literally could not kick a field goal.

678
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 5: When they were in the red zone, they had to

679
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 5: keep running it. And one of those times, even though

680
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 5: they were ahead, there running back fumbled the ball and

681
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 5: it sent them the Cardinals towards a win in which

682
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 5: they had about a five percent chance of winning the game.

683
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 5: In that exact moment, the Cardinals have won three in

684
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 5: a row. They're in first place in the AFC West,

685
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 5: ahead of the Rams, ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of

686
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 5: the Niners. There is a lot of glow on this

687
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 5: team right now, and it is a team to its credit,

688
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 5: it has come back from double digit downs in a

689
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 5: couple of games, and then it destroyed a Bear's team,

690
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 5: which you and I both know like they were primed

691
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 5: to be destroyed. I know, I listened to your show.

692
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 5: I know how you feel about Ibra Flus, I know

693
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 5: the stat you've been drumming about him on the road.

694
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 5: I agree with you as a Bears fan, terrible coach.

695
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 5: That was the exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant,

696
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 5: right the Jets with a mini bi getting healthier. No

697
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 5: pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean

698
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 5: the Cardinals cannot get any pressure. They are the worst

699
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,760
Speaker 5: in the league. That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers

700
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 5: to bring this team back down to earth. The wise guys,

701
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 5: like the Jets. The line has moved. The Jets were

702
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 5: underdogs the Jets are now favorites.

703
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 2: Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I

704
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 2: like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and

705
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,959
Speaker 2: a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week

706
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 2: over time. Kansas City is not a team that blows

707
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 2: people out. Denver, meanwhile, faced what teams do and they

708
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 2: realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and

709
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: play an angry Ravens team. They hammered last year, the Niners,

710
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 2: the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.

711
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be

712
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 2: just like not any other place in the league, nobody.

713
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: No team humiliates more teams then Baltimore in a bad

714
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 2: mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean

715
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 2: McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best

716
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 2: coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,

717
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,

718
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 2: they didn't get crushed, Okay, so don't just wipe that away.

719
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.

720
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 2: Division rivals. One team's humiliated. One team on a short

721
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.

722
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,760
Speaker 2: I still like denverse seven and a half sharper square.

723
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 5: It was a gift at nine, It was a gift

724
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 5: at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and

725
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 5: a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where

726
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 5: you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do

727
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 5: not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys

728
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 5: are going to be on a huge and in this

729
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 5: case seven is huge division road underdog. Those ten to

730
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 5: two favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.

731
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 5: When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,

732
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 5: he has a losing record against the spread. They're not

733
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 5: the kind of team. And I know you've talked about

734
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 5: this as well. They are not a blow them out

735
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 5: team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with

736
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 5: DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more out of the flow,

737
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 5: and them understanding who they are offensively now, but they

738
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 5: are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,

739
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 5: they're beating teams by five or six points a game,

740
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 5: right so they are not the kind of team, and

741
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 5: especially in the second half, they slow it down. They

742
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 5: get leads in the first half and then they slow

743
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 5: it down in the second half. The Broncos have a

744
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 5: great defense, and you can say everything you just said

745
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 5: about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.

746
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 5: They went on the road, they got throttled. The first

747
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 5: play of the game, bo Nix throws an interception off

748
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,439
Speaker 5: of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong

749
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 5: for them the rest of the day. But this is

750
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 5: a team that continues to grind and play to the

751
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 5: whistle and play to the end of the game. I

752
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 5: know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true

753
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 5: because Bonnicks is being treated as if he's a third

754
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 5: or fourth year quarterback, not a first year quarterback. So

755
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 5: the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in this

756
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 5: game and keep the back door open, and the Chiefs

757
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 5: will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,

758
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 5: one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that

759
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 5: are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the

760
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 5: Broncos are fifty against spread, So.

761
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 2: There are times when I just don't think teams are

762
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 2: going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half

763
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 2: Texans at home against the Lions, and Detroit has this

764
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 2: is not a game that you have circled as a

765
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 2: Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,

766
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 2: in division teams. This is kind of one of those

767
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 2: weird Hey, we got to go on the road and

768
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 2: play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit

769
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 2: and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This

770
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 2: is we got to get right three and a half.

771
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 2: I think you come out of a divisional game with

772
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 2: green Bay really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,

773
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 2: but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's

774
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 2: the home team where you feel like there's real urgency

775
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three

776
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 2: and a half here Sharper square.

777
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to

778
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 5: three and a half, and I think that the wise

779
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 5: guys are with you here. But three will be the

780
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,959
Speaker 5: tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys

781
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 5: will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.

782
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 5: The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is

783
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 5: in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,

784
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 5: physical travels in football right, running backs can have a

785
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 5: bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better

786
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 5: outdoors than indoors offensive lines. All you're doing is lining

787
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 5: up across the guy in front of you and beating

788
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 5: him up, and the Lions do that better than any

789
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 5: offensive line in the league. I think that is why

790
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 5: you know last week, all the professional betters were all

791
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 5: over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the Lions

792
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 5: are going to be outside Jared Goff has a bulky ankle.

793
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 5: This is the spot where you're going to fade a

794
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 5: team that everybody had been making money on, even as

795
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 5: big favorites, because they thought. We thought we'd see the

796
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 5: letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't happen like

797
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 5: the physical travel. So I do worry about the Texans

798
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 5: being able to out physical the Lions, especially. We don't

799
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 5: know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in that Jets

800
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 5: game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out, the

801
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 5: Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the Jets

802
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 5: took that game over. So it is it's the right side.

803
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 5: The wise guys are playing it. It's not my favorite, though.

804
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 2: Here's a game where I understand the hook and so

805
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 2: people won't bet this side. But there are teams that

806
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: I think get healthy or get right, and the market's

807
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 2: not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going to

808
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 2: be a problem this point forward. When you look at

809
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 2: that receiving cor last week and all of a sudden

810
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 2: you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now, it's

811
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:29,240
Speaker 2: actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Laddin, McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,

812
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 2: you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I

813
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 2: think they're going to start reeling off some kind of

814
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:41,760
Speaker 2: punishing dominant wins Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,

815
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 2: even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued,

816
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 2: I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would

817
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans for the record.

818
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 2: When we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools

819
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 2: gold like they can hang bad teams. I've seen them

820
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 2: overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square. Chargers

821
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 2: seven and a half, what say you.

822
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's totally square. The only side to take here

823
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 5: is the Titans. Either don't bet it, or take the Titans.

824
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 5: I'm not betting this game. I'm a huge Chargers backer.

825
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 5: Last week, everybody was saying the Browns are cresting. You

826
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 5: gotta get the Browns right now. Jamis is back and

827
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 5: I looked at that game and we talked about this

828
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 5: on the Favorites several times because it made no sense

829
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 5: to me. The Chargers were two point favorites on the road,

830
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 5: and if you break down that handicap, Chargers should have

831
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 5: been two point favorites on the road. They have the

832
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 5: better quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They have

833
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 5: a really good physical offensive line. We just talked about

834
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 5: the Lions. I see the Chargers built in the same

835
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:59,280
Speaker 5: mold as the Lions as we build the next twelve

836
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,919
Speaker 5: twenty fourth threety six months with what Horriba was trying

837
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 5: to do there. I love this Chargers team. I think

838
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:06,959
Speaker 5: seven and a half points is too high. There's too

839
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 5: much quirkiness that can come into play in these games

840
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 5: when the number is that high and there's a hook involved.

841
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 2: Okay, here's a game. And I hate to do this

842
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 2: because I really really liked the Rams and their young

843
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:27,280
Speaker 2: defense a lot. It was plus two and a half,

844
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 2: and I really liked Miami at two and a half.

845
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 2: Now it's down to one, so I think it won.

846
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 2: I would take the Rams, but there's a game every

847
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: week where I'm like, tell me what to bet. I really,

848
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 2: I think the Rams are so talented defensively. Defensively, they

849
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: have not missed on a draft pick, a defensive draft

850
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,719
Speaker 2: pick in two years. One of their safeties is an

851
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 2: undrafted rookie from Tennessee the volunteers. Heiss four picks. The

852
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 2: other kid from Miami is a pick six kid. I

853
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 2: mean like they're hitting on everybody, verse the two Florida

854
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 2: State guys young, I mean everyone. They all Kobe Turner

855
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 2: from Wake Forest, they all are good. They're all better

856
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 2: than their draft spot. I want to take the Rams

857
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 2: so bad, but that numbers moving around, it tells me

858
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 2: the Sharps were on Miami, right.

859
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 5: The wise guys have been all over Miami. And I'll

860
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 5: tell you know you and I but we did our

861
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 5: Sunday show at ESPN. We always had a pick where

862
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 5: we went against the wise guys and we called it

863
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 5: the executive decision, and you just nailed the game. That

864
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 5: is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.

865
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 5: I feel like the Rams. I bet the Rams last

866
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 5: week as favorites against the Seahawks, a miracle cover. But

867
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 5: Matthew Stafford. There are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,

868
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 5: it's the end of the game. I need this guy

869
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 5: to get me the cover, or I don't want to

870
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:03,240
Speaker 5: be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,

871
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:08,720
Speaker 5: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people

872
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 5: that you don't want to be against. I don't want

873
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 5: to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get

874
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 5: Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team

875
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 5: was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,

876
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 5: the other guy from Florida State. He had a great

877
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 5: game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I

878
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 5: think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like you know, I'm

879
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 5: revealing a secret. His offense as magical as it is,

880
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 5: as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Poka

881
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 5: Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is

882
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 5: basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is

883
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 5: a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around

884
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 5: running back in the league right now. And that Miami

885
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 5: Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So

886
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 5: I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.

887
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 5: I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking. I'm

888
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 5: with you, I don't see it. I don't see why

889
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 5: the Wise guys are on the Dolphins. If you want

890
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 5: to exact decision this, I'm with you one hundred percent.

891
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 2: Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus

892
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 2: four at the Colts. You know, if this is a

893
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 2: division game, it's different. I do worry about this. Quarterbacks

894
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 2: off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember

895
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 2: the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,

896
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 2: better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.

897
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,439
Speaker 2: Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're

898
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 2: not the people now look at Buffalo and they look

899
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 2: at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed. No

900
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 2: old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours.

901
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really

902
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 2: really one of the better sharp sides of the week.

903
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 5: Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at

904
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 5: four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.

905
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 5: A lot of three and a half's out there now.

906
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 5: The Wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.

907
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 5: Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys

908
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 5: like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.

909
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 5: The Bills are seven to two. They just came off

910
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 5: of a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field

911
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 5: goal Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up

912
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 5: the first week in November, huge huge cell high situation.

913
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 5: The Colts, big deal Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson.

914
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 5: That gives us a better chance to win. They go

915
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 5: into Minnesota in primetime, they can't even get past the

916
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 5: twenty yard line, right, they cannot score. So all of

917
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:58,919
Speaker 5: a sudden, you've got to buy low. So that's one

918
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 5: scenario in which the wise guys feel like it's overinflated

919
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 5: because of what happened in national television for the Cults.

920
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 5: And then you got to look, the Colts have a

921
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 5: dominant run blocking unit that is to the detriment of

922
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 5: the Bills rush defense. So in a lot of different metrics,

923
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 5: whether it's yards per play, yards are expected points on

924
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 5: the rush, total rushes of ten plus yards, which is

925
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:31,919
Speaker 5: sort of an explosive metric, the Cults are top five

926
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 5: the Bills are not very good defending against the run,

927
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 5: so there is an advantage there, and the Cults rush

928
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 5: defense has been getting much better. We saw that against

929
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 5: the Vikings with Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there

930
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 5: is an opportunity here against what is the strength of

931
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 5: the Bills defense or offense to stop them. So the

932
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 5: Wise Guys are huge, huge fans of the culture.

933
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 2: And every week there's a game I miss it's usually

934
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 2: egregiously bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the

935
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:03,280
Speaker 2: favor it's all odds provided by DraftKings. What's the game

936
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 2: I missed? It doesn't include Jacksonville.

937
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 5: Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,

938
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,919
Speaker 5: with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line

939
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 5: jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.

940
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,600
Speaker 5: I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most

941
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 5: people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna

942
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 5: ask you to do anything with that game. I will say,

943
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 5: the Wise guys have been on the Giants against the

944
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 5: Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask you

945
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:32,840
Speaker 5: to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised, like

946
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 5: you brought up all the games that are most interesting

947
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 5: to me.

948
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 4: One game.

949
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 5: There's two games we didn't discuss. One is a little

950
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 5: high profile. I'm surprised you to bring it up, which

951
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 5: is the Steelers in the Commoner.

952
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 2: So every week there's a game I want to watch.

953
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:49,640
Speaker 2: I just want to watch it. I think it's a

954
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 2: fascinating game. There's an argument to be made the Steelers

955
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: have the best defense in the league. They've really figured out,

956
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 2: by the way, how to use Russell Wilson, and like

957
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 2: Greg Cosell told me today, I said, it reminds me

958
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:08,240
Speaker 2: a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run, defensive culture

959
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 2: one one, two, good weapons, a tough place to play

960
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:13,720
Speaker 2: at home. He goes, But that's exactly what the video

961
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 2: tells you. It's a poor man Seahawks team. I kind

962
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 2: of like Pittsburgh here, right, getting points, Yes.

963
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 5: You do. What's scary is you can't get to three anymore,

964
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 5: right because it was at three. When it got to three, guys,

965
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 5: they immediately bet the three and it went down to

966
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 5: two and a half. And it's just sort of sitting

967
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 5: at two and a half. I would still play the

968
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 5: two and a half. Two is a key number in

969
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 5: the NFL. Now with all the extra points being missed

970
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 5: or teams going for two more often, so I wouldn't

971
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 5: be afraid of the two and a half. But this

972
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 5: is really the best defense. You just noted that Jayden

973
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:54,720
Speaker 5: Daniels has faced from two defensive ends who can really

974
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 5: rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith was out for

975
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 5: most of October, their rush metrics are not as high

976
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 5: as they normally are. But he's been back and this

977
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 5: is really a stellar defense. It's also a Row rob

978
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 5: Mike tomlinst you got Mike Tomlin the.

979
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: Best underdog coach. Burrow is the best underdog quarterback I believe,

980
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:20,839
Speaker 2: and I believe Tomlin getting two and a half points

981
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: here against Washington's the best underdog coach.

982
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 4: Colin.

983
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 5: The numbers back you up. Mike Tomlin sixty percent against

984
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 5: spread as a dog on the road in his career.

985
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 5: He is the most profitable coach as an underdog against

986
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 5: the spread this generation in the history of data that

987
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 5: we have tracking all this stuff going back about twenty years.

988
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 5: The most profitable coach in this situation also twenty five

989
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 5: and five straight up against rookie QBS. Everyone is looking

990
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 5: for the moment to sell the Commanders because they've been

991
00:52:56,600 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 5: extraordinarily good. The Steelers off of with these two defensive

992
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:04,360
Speaker 5: ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach. Might be the

993
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 5: time to do it, But I didn't give you the

994
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 5: gross game. Can I interest you in the New Orleans

995
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 5: Saints plus three and a half against the Atlanta Fountains?

996
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 2: No, you can't at all.

997
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 5: Yes, we are playing. We are playing the dead cat bounce.

998
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 5: We have a team that has a new coach that

999
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 5: got rid of the guy who, by all accounts, and

1000
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 5: we've been hearing this for more than a year, they

1001
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 5: hated Dennis.

1002
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 2: How many points.

1003
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 5: They've been out on Dennis Auten. They're getting three and

1004
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 5: a half Saints. They were here. Here's the thing, the

1005
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 5: Saints are getting three and a half. They were getting four.

1006
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 5: It's down to three and a half. So you know,

1007
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,359
Speaker 5: the wise guys are on them because the public is

1008
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 5: betting the Falcons. So we got a pro Joe split here.

1009
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 5: This team played so badly last week. The most popular player,

1010
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 5: Cam Jordan apologized on Twitter. And if you look at

1011
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 5: the games Derek Carters started, Look, they've lost seven in

1012
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 5: a row for those games with Derek Carr. One of

1013
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 5: those games Kansas City. They lost twenty six to thirteen,

1014
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 5: but it was closer than the score the other The

1015
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 5: other three games they were by three points, two points

1016
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 5: in one point, including one of these games against Atlanta.

1017
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 5: So I know, like the receivers are out. They just

1018
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 5: traded Latimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to the Commanders.

1019
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 5: But this is the spot to back the Saints. You

1020
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 5: just got to hold your nose and do it. You

1021
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 5: might not bet them again the rest of the year.

1022
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 5: It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came

1023
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 5: in because you knew there'd be some kind of change.

1024
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 5: Derek Carr second game back, new coach.

1025
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 4: This is it.

1026
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 5: There's the whole ball of wax So and this Atlanta

1027
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 5: team had generally been mediocre. Like they're not blowing teams out,

1028
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 5: they're getting really lucky. It's it's a situation where the

1029
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 5: number is a little bit in f because the Falcons

1030
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:03,920
Speaker 5: have been doing so well and the public sentiment on

1031
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:06,799
Speaker 5: the Saints is so low, so the wise guys are

1032
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 5: on the Saints.

1033
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 2: And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so

1034
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 2: it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used

1035
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 2: like pro bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got

1036
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 2: a hamstring issue. Yeah, so much stuff.

1037
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 1: Ride with it.

1038
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 4: Do it? Do it? Come on.

1039
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 5: The volume.

1040
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

1041
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 2: take a moment rate and review