WEBVTT - What’s In Store With Self-Driving Cars 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.684 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.724 --> 0:00:31.444 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:31.364 --> 0:00:34.284 And I'm Nate Silver today on the show, Maria, have 0:00:34.324 --> 0:00:38.404 you ever taken a way Moo or another autonomous vehicle? 0:00:38.804 --> 0:00:43.124 I have, not, Nate, but I know, I know, I know, 0:00:44.004 --> 0:00:47.004 I know that you have. We've talked about that before. 0:00:47.404 --> 0:00:51.284 But yeah, we'll be talking more in depth about kind 0:00:51.284 --> 0:00:56.204 of the whole autonomous vehicle future, the risks, the rewards, 0:00:56.244 --> 0:00:58.964 what's good, what's bad, how we should think about it, 0:00:59.004 --> 0:01:01.204 how we should evaluate it. I think there are lots 0:01:01.204 --> 0:01:04.084 of questions here and lots of things to think about 0:01:04.244 --> 0:01:06.884 as we kind of figure out the future of driving. 0:01:06.884 --> 0:01:08.724 We got a little risk, we got a little psychology, 0:01:08.884 --> 0:01:10.204 we got a little algorithm TLIC. 0:01:10.244 --> 0:01:13.884 It's gonna be a good episode, Maria. 0:01:15.284 --> 0:01:18.644 So, Nate, you told me about some amazing experiences that 0:01:18.684 --> 0:01:22.284 you've had using waymos in San Francisco. 0:01:23.084 --> 0:01:24.924 Yeah. No, I uh. 0:01:25.044 --> 0:01:28.564 The first time I took a WEEIMO, I was actually 0:01:28.564 --> 0:01:32.324 at a meeting with Manifold, which is a prediction market company, 0:01:33.004 --> 0:01:35.484 just shooting the shit. I'm friendly with those guys, and 0:01:35.484 --> 0:01:38.804 they're like, we're gonna hail you Awaimo back to your 0:01:38.964 --> 0:01:42.164 hotel in San Francisco, and I'm like, okay, this seems 0:01:42.244 --> 0:01:44.684 kind of stupid, right, I don't know, we're afraid, and 0:01:44.804 --> 0:01:47.284 like it was fucking it felt like the fucking future. 0:01:47.364 --> 0:01:47.564 Right. 0:01:47.804 --> 0:01:50.644 You get in there, there's no driver, there's like space 0:01:50.684 --> 0:01:54.004 age music playing, and like San Francisco is like not 0:01:54.764 --> 0:01:57.804 a particularly easy city to navigate. There's a lot of traffic, 0:01:58.204 --> 0:02:02.404 there's lots of hills. I wouldn't call SF the most. 0:02:02.084 --> 0:02:06.564 Traffic obedient place. Probably better than like Boston or something. Right, Oh, 0:02:06.564 --> 0:02:07.164 I don't think. 0:02:07.044 --> 0:02:09.364 Anything is worse than Boston when it comes to. 0:02:10.684 --> 0:02:11.804 You know, my dad had like it. 0:02:12.524 --> 0:02:15.004 We lived briefly in Boston for a year, and like 0:02:15.404 --> 0:02:17.644 he got a falsely accused and like being in a 0:02:17.644 --> 0:02:20.684 car accident. There's a Brian Q Silver and he was 0:02:20.764 --> 0:02:24.084 Brian D Silver. Anyway, we'll leave it aside family lore. 0:02:24.644 --> 0:02:27.684 Brian Q Silver, Fuck you, Brian Q Silver. He fucking 0:02:27.764 --> 0:02:29.084 my dad's credit reading. 0:02:29.164 --> 0:02:30.964 Oh my god, No, that's I mean, this is a 0:02:31.084 --> 0:02:34.244 fun like this is a hilarious side of family lore, 0:02:34.644 --> 0:02:37.324 but like this is actually a consideration when it comes 0:02:37.364 --> 0:02:39.924 to self driving cars versus human driving cars. 0:02:40.044 --> 0:02:43.244 No, it felt like the fucking future, right, and like it, 0:02:43.444 --> 0:02:46.084 like I would say, and by the way, there's also 0:02:46.164 --> 0:02:49.404 like lots of let's be honest, especially a couple of 0:02:49.444 --> 0:02:53.084 years ago, and this happened a lot of vagrancy, homeless people, 0:02:53.884 --> 0:02:56.964 sketchy people in downtown San Francisco, right, So like you're 0:02:56.964 --> 0:03:00.964 dealing with an unpredictable element that might not be programmed 0:03:00.964 --> 0:03:03.964 into some baseline model of like how driving is supposed 0:03:04.004 --> 0:03:06.764 to work. But now the WAIMA did like a very 0:03:06.884 --> 0:03:09.484 very good job. It's very smooth with the acceleration and 0:03:09.964 --> 0:03:12.644 the deceleration. It's a little bit a little bit nitty 0:03:13.084 --> 0:03:16.724 about following traffic signals and things like that. I was 0:03:16.804 --> 0:03:19.044 you would expect, but it did like lots of I 0:03:19.084 --> 0:03:23.124 think fairly saying in rational things, right, like I was 0:03:23.124 --> 0:03:25.764 staying at some slightly funky hotel and like it pulls 0:03:25.804 --> 0:03:27.284 up on the opposite side of the hotel where it's 0:03:27.324 --> 0:03:29.924 like safer to get out and not the officially recommended spot, 0:03:29.964 --> 0:03:31.564 and like it just you know, it would be like 0:03:31.564 --> 0:03:35.924 in the ninety seventh or ninety eighth percentile of Uber drivers, 0:03:36.204 --> 0:03:37.684 I would say, you know, whether or. 0:03:37.684 --> 0:03:39.444 Not you like the conversation, Yeah, go ahead. 0:03:39.844 --> 0:03:41.764 I was gonna say, it's funny that you say they're nitty. 0:03:42.044 --> 0:03:46.004 So I'm in Las Vegas right now, and Vegas is 0:03:46.204 --> 0:03:50.524 rolling out a lot of autonomous vehicles, not just way Mos, 0:03:50.524 --> 0:03:54.004 but what's the what's the other one called zekes There 0:03:54.004 --> 0:03:59.804 we go zu zukes all right, So Vegas is rolling 0:03:59.804 --> 0:04:03.764 out a lot of autonomous vehicles, including zekes here. So 0:04:03.884 --> 0:04:07.284 when I came back for the NAPT the North American 0:04:07.324 --> 0:04:09.684 Poker to Our last month, was the first time that 0:04:09.724 --> 0:04:12.644 they had done really the full rollout already where you 0:04:12.684 --> 0:04:15.524 can hail them, you know as Uber, Left, et cetera. Well, 0:04:15.564 --> 0:04:17.684 actually I don't know if it's both Uber and Left. Anyway, 0:04:17.724 --> 0:04:20.524 you can use ride sharing services with them, and they're 0:04:20.564 --> 0:04:23.884 all over the streets. And I was trying to drive, 0:04:24.244 --> 0:04:27.164 and I realized very early on, and this says something 0:04:27.164 --> 0:04:30.524 about how close I like to you know, I sometimes 0:04:30.604 --> 0:04:32.484 cut things a little bit close when it comes to 0:04:32.524 --> 0:04:36.084 making it to places on time. I realized right away 0:04:36.124 --> 0:04:39.164 that I did not want to be behind them. Basically, 0:04:39.164 --> 0:04:41.924 if I saw them in my lane, I tried to 0:04:41.964 --> 0:04:44.284 like get into a different lane because they would not 0:04:44.324 --> 0:04:46.924 go a single mile above the speed limit. They would 0:04:47.084 --> 0:04:51.164 stop like and sometimes get a little bit, you know, confused. 0:04:51.204 --> 0:04:53.684 They were very nitty, very cautious drivers, and I was like, 0:04:53.804 --> 0:04:55.684 come on, guys, you can go thirty seven in the 0:04:55.684 --> 0:04:56.564 thirty five zone. 0:04:56.604 --> 0:04:57.684 It's not going to kill you. 0:04:57.724 --> 0:05:00.604 It's gonna be okay. But they wouldn't, and which was 0:05:00.684 --> 0:05:02.684 really interesting. And I don't know if it's you know, 0:05:02.724 --> 0:05:05.404 if it's this particular company, but they were definitely very 0:05:05.484 --> 0:05:07.724 nitty drivers, which, by the way, is not necessarily a 0:05:07.764 --> 0:05:10.444 bad thing, right, Like they were being they were being cautious, 0:05:10.444 --> 0:05:12.484 they were being safe. But for me, I was like, okay, 0:05:12.884 --> 0:05:16.324 I want to go slightly faster. Sorry, Las Vegas Police. 0:05:16.324 --> 0:05:18.444 I never go more than a few miles above the 0:05:18.444 --> 0:05:22.044 speed limit, I promise, But like I got stuck behind 0:05:22.044 --> 0:05:25.564 them a few times, and like they wouldn't take some 0:05:25.684 --> 0:05:28.844 turns at intersections which I think a human driver might 0:05:28.844 --> 0:05:31.484 have taken. Probably it's a little bit safer, Like they 0:05:31.644 --> 0:05:34.964 just really play it safe in those scenarios. But I 0:05:35.044 --> 0:05:36.404 just want it to be like, Okay, you can go, 0:05:36.484 --> 0:05:39.084 you have room, let's go, let's make that turn. 0:05:40.284 --> 0:05:42.644 I mean, there are there are times when it's probably 0:05:43.564 --> 0:05:46.644 I don't drive, actually I do bike sometimes, right, like 0:05:46.684 --> 0:05:48.804 on the city bikes or whatever. Right, there are times 0:05:48.844 --> 0:05:54.804 when violating traffic laws is probably safer. Yeah, you know 0:05:54.804 --> 0:05:57.804 what I mean, like mile violations where or just on 0:05:57.924 --> 0:06:00.044 the common sentence, so you're trying to yeah, I don't know. 0:06:00.964 --> 0:06:03.004 I think that's really and that's more true in New 0:06:03.084 --> 0:06:05.444 York than probably other locations. I would think. 0:06:05.844 --> 0:06:08.284 Now, sometimes you do have to make these judgment calls 0:06:08.324 --> 0:06:11.644 because sometimes like you will see something and in order 0:06:11.764 --> 0:06:14.524 to be safer, like you will have to violate a 0:06:14.684 --> 0:06:17.764 traffic rule. And that's I think one of these broader 0:06:18.084 --> 0:06:20.644 you know, as we as we start talking about kind 0:06:20.684 --> 0:06:24.164 of the broader risk reward and kind of how this 0:06:24.324 --> 0:06:28.444 future looks, and you know what we think about autonomous vehicles, 0:06:28.764 --> 0:06:31.604 I think that a lot of the questions do revolve around, 0:06:31.964 --> 0:06:34.884 you know, how do you program the cars to actually 0:06:34.924 --> 0:06:38.324 make these decisions, because you know, it's not It would 0:06:38.364 --> 0:06:43.964 be one thing if we had this immediate transition right 0:06:44.164 --> 0:06:47.404 where like you can just go like this snap of 0:06:47.444 --> 0:06:49.844 the fingers and all of a sudden, all the cars 0:06:49.844 --> 0:06:53.084 on the road are autonomous vehicles. That's very different from 0:06:53.124 --> 0:06:56.564 having kind of multiple years of in between where you 0:06:56.644 --> 0:07:00.604 have human drivers and autonomous vehicles and you know, more 0:07:00.644 --> 0:07:03.484 human drivers than autonomous vehicles in all of these kind 0:07:03.524 --> 0:07:07.684 of the transitional period, I think from a risk safety 0:07:08.164 --> 0:07:10.964 standpoint and from making those types of trade offs is 0:07:11.044 --> 0:07:15.004 probably going to be the most difficult to navigate because 0:07:15.764 --> 0:07:18.644 you have to account not just for ideal driving and 0:07:18.724 --> 0:07:21.964 what you're supposed to be doing, but what humans actually 0:07:22.004 --> 0:07:24.764 do right, and the mistakes that humans make, and how 0:07:24.804 --> 0:07:29.124 you share the road with humans, some of whom are 0:07:29.124 --> 0:07:31.964 bad drivers, some of whom are impaired drivers, right, because 0:07:32.004 --> 0:07:35.564 those risks don't suddenly magically go away. Now, it's kind 0:07:35.604 --> 0:07:37.364 of you know, it's funny. We talk a lot about 0:07:37.404 --> 0:07:39.964 poker and kind of ideal poker on this show. It's 0:07:40.044 --> 0:07:42.524 kind of like, you know, if you have the GTO 0:07:42.684 --> 0:07:45.524 cars right, but then you have all of these crazy 0:07:45.564 --> 0:07:47.844 and different types of players on the road, and you 0:07:47.884 --> 0:07:50.004 have to try to figure out like, sure, you have 0:07:50.044 --> 0:07:52.164 to drive in a GTO way, but you also have 0:07:52.244 --> 0:07:55.644 to make sure that you are optimizing for the fact 0:07:55.644 --> 0:07:58.124 that you have, you know, these loose cannons and all 0:07:58.164 --> 0:08:00.924 of these different elements that are still going to be 0:08:00.924 --> 0:08:03.604 sharing the roads with you. And unless there's like this 0:08:03.804 --> 0:08:05.764 huge thing where all of a sudden, the government's like, 0:08:05.964 --> 0:08:08.524 we're going to pay you, you know, tons of money 0:08:08.524 --> 0:08:11.924 to give up your car and use autonomous vehicles. Like 0:08:11.964 --> 0:08:13.964 that transition, to me is going to be one of 0:08:13.964 --> 0:08:15.964 the riskier parts of this whole equation. 0:08:17.764 --> 0:08:19.324 Well, I assume that these. 0:08:20.684 --> 0:08:23.524 Cars are programmed in like find if you call it, 0:08:23.604 --> 0:08:26.644 like an exploitive strategy in poker, right, but as soon 0:08:27.044 --> 0:08:31.284 they are at least doing some defensive driving, right. I 0:08:31.364 --> 0:08:34.684 mean again, San Francisco not a place which is ideal 0:08:34.764 --> 0:08:38.684 for traffic laws or anything else, really right, and they're 0:08:38.724 --> 0:08:40.164 kind of training these real world environments. 0:08:40.164 --> 0:08:41.924 I mean, look, I mean to back up a second, right, Like, 0:08:42.044 --> 0:08:43.124 in general. 0:08:43.204 --> 0:08:47.724 There's this critique that like AI driven systems are good 0:08:47.764 --> 0:08:53.044 with simple manipulation tasks, so language, certain types of math, right, 0:08:53.124 --> 0:08:53.884 certain types. 0:08:53.684 --> 0:08:54.844 Of games when they're well trained. 0:08:54.844 --> 0:08:56.444 I know we've talked in this program about how poker 0:08:56.804 --> 0:08:59.084 if you're not training on poker specifically, might be an exception. 0:08:59.684 --> 0:09:02.884 So it is kind of amazing that like that they're 0:09:02.924 --> 0:09:05.004 as good as they are, right, But like, yeah, the 0:09:05.084 --> 0:09:09.364 thing people are recognize is like the human drivers are 0:09:09.404 --> 0:09:11.644 I have lots of problems, you know what I mean, 0:09:12.564 --> 0:09:14.524 They're distracted I mean, I was just in where was 0:09:14.724 --> 0:09:17.804 I was just in Florida, right, And like. 0:09:18.164 --> 0:09:22.284 In Florida you can talk on your cell phone when 0:09:22.284 --> 0:09:23.284 you're driving. 0:09:23.204 --> 0:09:26.124 And like, oh my god, is that true night? 0:09:26.244 --> 0:09:28.524 Oh my god, you do neither you nor there? 0:09:29.124 --> 0:09:31.884 No, no, no, that's actually that's actually both here and there. 0:09:31.924 --> 0:09:34.044 I don't remember if I've ever told our listeners, but 0:09:34.604 --> 0:09:36.924 the one of the scariest experiences I've had in an 0:09:37.044 --> 0:09:39.604 uber was in California. It was in LA. We were 0:09:39.644 --> 0:09:41.484 stuck in traffic in the middle of you know, one 0:09:41.524 --> 0:09:45.044 of these horrible LA freeways, and my driver was already 0:09:45.124 --> 0:09:48.524 like exhibiting signs of strange behavior, and then he just 0:09:48.564 --> 0:09:52.804 like stares intently at me in the rear view mirror 0:09:52.844 --> 0:09:55.444 and says, do you believe in God? 0:09:56.164 --> 0:09:58.004 That I was like, oh no, oh. 0:09:57.884 --> 0:10:01.124 God, no, oh no. 0:10:01.564 --> 0:10:04.524 Anyway, this is actually very Germane because that is one 0:10:04.564 --> 0:10:07.524 of the things that I think self driving, the autonomous 0:10:07.564 --> 0:10:11.364 vehicles definitely have a leg up on. You are not 0:10:11.524 --> 0:10:14.284 going to have one of those do you believe in God? 0:10:14.444 --> 0:10:17.684 Experiences that are going to make you want to immediately 0:10:17.684 --> 0:10:28.844 get out of the car and we'll be back right 0:10:28.884 --> 0:10:42.164 after this. So I think that one of to me, 0:10:42.444 --> 0:10:45.524 one of the big good things about the future of 0:10:45.564 --> 0:10:49.764 autonomous vehicles is the fact that you kind of sometimes 0:10:50.004 --> 0:10:53.684 like this is evidence for when taking the human equation 0:10:53.764 --> 0:10:56.004 out of it can be good. Right, You don't have 0:10:56.124 --> 0:10:59.964 to like every time that I'm coming home, you know, 0:11:00.004 --> 0:11:02.564 every time I'm going back to Brooklyn from JFK. When 0:11:02.604 --> 0:11:05.644 I get back to New York, I end up taking 0:11:05.684 --> 0:11:09.164 the taxi, but I get into arguments with the driver 0:11:09.524 --> 0:11:13.564 every single time because inevitably they want to take the 0:11:13.604 --> 0:11:15.564 Belt Parkway, which is never the best way to go. 0:11:15.604 --> 0:11:17.884 You always get stuck in traffic, it's always horrible, but 0:11:17.924 --> 0:11:19.604 they always want to do that, and we just get 0:11:19.644 --> 0:11:21.324 into a back and forth. I'm like, no, I want 0:11:21.324 --> 0:11:22.844 you to do this, and they're like, no, I'm gonna 0:11:22.884 --> 0:11:26.884 do that. And with presumably with autonomous vehicles, you know, 0:11:26.924 --> 0:11:28.644 a lot of this won't come up, right, they have 0:11:29.044 --> 0:11:33.164 the roots and they will kind of they will, they will. 0:11:33.004 --> 0:11:38.444 Do Yeah, I'm a little more sympathetic empirically, and I 0:11:38.484 --> 0:11:40.804 don't drive, but my partner does and we drive decently 0:11:40.964 --> 0:11:45.244 off the bike. Empirically, I think like when the GPS 0:11:45.604 --> 0:11:49.004 says something that like you as an experienced driver in 0:11:49.004 --> 0:11:50.004 that area. 0:11:50.164 --> 0:11:53.004 Disagree with I think it's kind of fifty to fifty. 0:11:53.004 --> 0:11:55.364 Who's right? Yeah and who isn't? You know what I mean? 0:11:55.524 --> 0:11:57.444 From like little things like knowing, oh, this street is 0:11:57.484 --> 0:12:00.004 closed when we used to live near Penn Station. Right, 0:12:01.084 --> 0:12:02.804 there's a nixt game starting. You don't want to fucking 0:12:02.844 --> 0:12:05.684 drive anywhere near Massion Square Garden when there's a next 0:12:05.684 --> 0:12:08.964 game starting. Or I mean, look, obviously, if you're in 0:12:09.004 --> 0:12:12.204 a new or a lift, then the estimate of when 0:12:12.244 --> 0:12:16.884 you'll arrive at your destination is strongly biased toward optimism. 0:12:17.084 --> 0:12:18.404 You know, this is why I want, like, I want 0:12:18.404 --> 0:12:21.964 prediction Mark. We need polymarket nation, we can bet. 0:12:22.484 --> 0:12:25.564 Yeah, we need psychology actually in this because I think 0:12:25.644 --> 0:12:29.244 that I actually think that cars get this absolutely backwards, 0:12:29.484 --> 0:12:32.804 because it's incredibly frustrating when you see, like you go 0:12:32.924 --> 0:12:35.604 to order an uber a lift and it's like two 0:12:35.604 --> 0:12:38.084 minutes and then it ends up being eight minutes because 0:12:38.124 --> 0:12:40.444 they basically have lied to you and they know that 0:12:40.524 --> 0:12:41.804 right away, and then they're like, oh, it's going to 0:12:41.844 --> 0:12:44.164 take you, you know, ten minutes to get here, or this 0:12:44.204 --> 0:12:47.484 traffic slow down is a fifteen minute slow down, whatever 0:12:47.524 --> 0:12:50.284 it is, it's always optimistic right, And the way you 0:12:50.324 --> 0:12:53.324 need to do it psychologically speaking is you want to 0:12:53.364 --> 0:12:57.564 do the old underpromise over deliver, right. They should actually 0:12:57.644 --> 0:13:01.324 know that this is statistically speaking, you're probably going to 0:13:01.364 --> 0:13:03.644 be at the other side of the distribution. So instead, 0:13:03.724 --> 0:13:06.444 let me say you know that your uber is coming 0:13:06.484 --> 0:13:08.844 in eight minutes, and then when it arrives in four minutes, 0:13:08.884 --> 0:13:11.644 you'll be happy instead of frustrating. Let me tell you 0:13:11.684 --> 0:13:14.284 that the slowdown is going to be twenty five minutes, 0:13:14.324 --> 0:13:16.244 and then when it's over in twenty minutes, you're gonna 0:13:16.244 --> 0:13:17.724 be like, oh my god, it was much shorter. 0:13:18.124 --> 0:13:18.804 This is great. 0:13:18.924 --> 0:13:21.644 So I actually think that psychologically they get this totally wrong. 0:13:21.884 --> 0:13:24.644 We're talking about self driving cars in your. 0:13:25.444 --> 0:13:28.124 Room at your at Bellagio and I'm gonna, I'm gonna, 0:13:28.364 --> 0:13:32.124 I'm gonna order a lift in six minutes, right, and 0:13:32.204 --> 0:13:33.484 it's like they're in two minutes. You have to get 0:13:33.524 --> 0:13:36.724 on the fucking ride share thing. You don't take these 0:13:36.764 --> 0:13:38.644 zubers in Vegas, I guess very much, right. 0:13:39.284 --> 0:13:42.324 No, that's it's yeah, No, that's a different thing. But 0:13:42.484 --> 0:13:47.644 I think you just right now, there's no reliable gauge 0:13:47.644 --> 0:13:50.884 for how quickly or not a car will actually come. 0:13:50.924 --> 0:13:53.164 But I wonder if autonomous vehicles will actually solve this 0:13:53.244 --> 0:13:55.644 problem or if they're just gonna lie the exact same way, 0:13:55.804 --> 0:13:59.084 right that this is a problem with the underlying algorithm 0:13:59.204 --> 0:14:02.444 as opposed to I think anything else. The other thing 0:14:02.684 --> 0:14:05.244 that with autonomous vehicle is actually where you might need 0:14:05.284 --> 0:14:08.564 a human. So talking about GPS and all of these things, 0:14:09.204 --> 0:14:12.404 for whatever reason, where I live in Vegas for a 0:14:12.524 --> 0:14:17.684 very long time was for some reason misrepresented on the GPS, 0:14:18.124 --> 0:14:21.644 and drivers would actually like go to the totally wrong place, 0:14:21.684 --> 0:14:24.044 and it was an absolute nightmare wanting you needed to 0:14:24.044 --> 0:14:30.004 get picked up because somehow the GPS just completely fucked up, right, 0:14:30.244 --> 0:14:32.284 and so people would just not be able to find it. 0:14:32.724 --> 0:14:36.044 And so if there's a human there, you can talk 0:14:36.084 --> 0:14:38.124 to them and be like, hey, okay, no, you need 0:14:38.164 --> 0:14:39.604 to do this, you need to take a turn here, 0:14:39.684 --> 0:14:41.684 you need to do this to get me. What do 0:14:41.724 --> 0:14:43.764 I do if it's a weimo that's coming to pick 0:14:43.804 --> 0:14:46.444 me up? How do I make sure that when you 0:14:46.604 --> 0:14:50.244 need kind of that human intervention because the technology is 0:14:50.284 --> 0:14:53.404 fucking up. Like I said, I've never taken weimos, so 0:14:53.604 --> 0:14:56.484 I don't know if you can interact with them in 0:14:56.524 --> 0:14:59.764 the same way. Maybe this isn't a problem, but it 0:14:59.844 --> 0:15:03.404 seems like it might be a point of friction. 0:15:05.484 --> 0:15:10.364 I mean, look, one problem with algorithms, really with algorithms there, 0:15:10.404 --> 0:15:13.484 with people who designed the algorithms, right, is like there's 0:15:13.604 --> 0:15:18.844 like a lot of over literalness. 0:15:18.044 --> 0:15:20.564 You know what I mean. Like I used to live near. 0:15:21.884 --> 0:15:25.964 A corner near Penn Station, right, and this is a 0:15:26.164 --> 0:15:31.564 very busy all times of days intersection, right, But there 0:15:31.604 --> 0:15:34.404 are lots of times when if not makes sense to 0:15:34.444 --> 0:15:37.724 loot all the way around the whole avenue when you 0:15:37.724 --> 0:15:40.844 can just drop me on like one block north or 0:15:40.884 --> 0:15:43.964 one block south right, and like so like that logic 0:15:44.044 --> 0:15:47.404 that like a human driver, I'm just gonna drop you 0:15:47.484 --> 0:15:49.244 twenty ninth and seventh and not loop. 0:15:49.084 --> 0:15:51.884 Around because otherwise it's gonna add five minutes to fifteen 0:15:51.924 --> 0:15:55.284 fucking minutes, yeah, fifteen minutes whatever it or like hey, pick. 0:15:55.084 --> 0:15:56.804 I'm gonna pick you up one seventh and not on 0:15:57.044 --> 0:15:59.964 on thirtieth. Like that kind of thing has never been 0:16:00.764 --> 0:16:02.764 a strength of any of these, right, because you're like 0:16:02.804 --> 0:16:05.604 overly literal about like okay, get me the general area, 0:16:05.684 --> 0:16:07.364 and like this is you know a lot of the 0:16:07.404 --> 0:16:11.644 pickoff and drop off locations can be overly literal at 0:16:11.684 --> 0:16:13.804 some properties and things like that. 0:16:13.924 --> 0:16:14.644 I mean, I don't know. 0:16:15.404 --> 0:16:19.564 Yeah, presumably algorithms will get better, and they'll they'll get 0:16:19.564 --> 0:16:22.164 better at things like that, but there are other safety 0:16:22.204 --> 0:16:24.444 issues that I do wonder about. And by the way, 0:16:24.724 --> 0:16:27.644 a few weeks back, there was a big op ed 0:16:27.884 --> 0:16:31.604 from a surgeon in the New York Times about autonomous 0:16:31.684 --> 0:16:36.244 vehicles and you know, accident rates and not just fatalities, 0:16:36.284 --> 0:16:40.604 but the types of injuries that the physician you know 0:16:40.684 --> 0:16:44.124 has seen in different situations. And it was arguing for 0:16:44.364 --> 0:16:48.284 more autonomous vehicles because you know of how these insane 0:16:48.324 --> 0:16:50.604 situations that human drivers get into, and that their safety 0:16:50.644 --> 0:16:55.284 record is much better. Obviously this is a tiny fraction, 0:16:55.764 --> 0:16:57.564 you know, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But that 0:16:57.644 --> 0:17:00.964 made me much more kind of pro autonomous vehicles than 0:17:01.004 --> 0:17:03.084 I might otherwise have been, because I think that this 0:17:03.164 --> 0:17:05.724 is this is a big, a big deal, and we 0:17:05.804 --> 0:17:08.924 do want to be thinking about, you know, about those 0:17:08.924 --> 0:17:13.004 types of questions. But some of the other kind of 0:17:13.044 --> 0:17:16.764 algorithmic questions are you know, how do you and this 0:17:16.844 --> 0:17:19.284 is you know, I don't want to get all like 0:17:19.324 --> 0:17:22.324 philosophical here, But it does like get into kind of 0:17:22.324 --> 0:17:26.924 these morality problems, types of situations where like whose life 0:17:26.924 --> 0:17:29.244 do you prioritize? Right? Like how do you make those 0:17:29.284 --> 0:17:31.724 types of judgment calls? What is the algorithm going to 0:17:31.724 --> 0:17:35.444 do in different situations where there's no good answer right 0:17:35.484 --> 0:17:38.644 where you might endanger your passenger or engager someone crossing 0:17:38.724 --> 0:17:41.444 the street, or do this or do that, especially as 0:17:41.484 --> 0:17:44.724 we started off the show talking about in this transitional 0:17:44.764 --> 0:17:47.404 period where you're not dealing with other autonomous vehicles, right, 0:17:47.484 --> 0:17:49.364 you're dealing with a lot of humans on the road. 0:17:49.604 --> 0:17:51.284 So how do you make those trade offs? How do 0:17:51.324 --> 0:17:55.004 you program that? You know, who's responsible for programming those algorithms? 0:17:55.284 --> 0:17:57.244 How are they thinking about it? I think these are 0:17:57.284 --> 0:17:59.964 all really important questions where it's not a question of 0:18:00.004 --> 0:18:03.004 tweaking the algorithm and saying, oh, like let the person 0:18:03.044 --> 0:18:05.524 tell them to like pick me up at this corner instead. 0:18:06.084 --> 0:18:07.724 These are much deeper questions. 0:18:09.484 --> 0:18:11.764 Yeah, I mean I some of our listeners are probably 0:18:11.764 --> 0:18:13.964 familiar with with the trolley problem. 0:18:14.084 --> 0:18:17.804 Yeah. Yeah, the trolley problem is your is your gold 0:18:17.844 --> 0:18:20.164 standard here and all the iterations of. 0:18:20.084 --> 0:18:24.684 It, which is a philosophical dilemma. I guess where there 0:18:24.724 --> 0:18:28.044 is a trolley on a busy track. It's going to 0:18:28.204 --> 0:18:30.284 kill I guess some people who are tied to the track. 0:18:30.364 --> 0:18:34.644 You can also divert it and instead of killing these 0:18:34.684 --> 0:18:36.884 five people, you kill like two workers. 0:18:36.924 --> 0:18:38.244 I mean, there are there are lots. 0:18:38.044 --> 0:18:39.244 Of infinite variations of it. 0:18:39.284 --> 0:18:41.124 I think it seems pretty us like diverted kill the 0:18:41.124 --> 0:18:43.044 two and not the five. Right, But Like the point is, 0:18:43.044 --> 0:18:46.364 if you're kind of like intervening and making a decision, 0:18:46.924 --> 0:18:51.124 then it begins to feel like I feel like, yeah, 0:18:51.164 --> 0:18:53.564 you've made a moral choice, right, And. 0:18:53.724 --> 0:18:55.324 And what if you know that one of these is 0:18:55.364 --> 0:18:58.364 an infant one of these is a Nobel Prize winning set, Right, 0:18:58.444 --> 0:19:00.844 what if you actually know something about the identities? Like 0:19:00.884 --> 0:19:03.124 you said, there are infinite variations of this, of the 0:19:03.164 --> 0:19:07.324 trolley problem, and there's no definitive answer. Like philosophers disagree 0:19:07.324 --> 0:19:09.644 on the answers to this to this day. There are 0:19:09.644 --> 0:19:13.644 different philosophical schools that have that advocate different approaches. And 0:19:14.324 --> 0:19:17.604 this is I mean, autonomous vehicles have to deal with 0:19:17.924 --> 0:19:21.604 one big trolley problem, right in some sense. 0:19:21.444 --> 0:19:23.924 Yeah, when and when you have to quantify things, it's 0:19:24.004 --> 0:19:27.164 one of the things that I will defend some of 0:19:27.164 --> 0:19:30.884 the effective altruists and like rationalists about right is Thelle 0:19:30.884 --> 0:19:33.564 will be like, well, what's what's the value of a 0:19:33.604 --> 0:19:37.684 ship's life compared to like a human life? Yep, And 0:19:37.724 --> 0:19:40.924 it can be a little off putting to think about. 0:19:41.204 --> 0:19:42.964 On the other hand, we make the trade offs all 0:19:43.004 --> 0:19:44.524 the time, right. I talk about an example in my 0:19:44.564 --> 0:19:47.484 book from a few years ago where like the entire 0:19:47.724 --> 0:19:50.164 New York City, not the entire New York City subway system, 0:19:50.324 --> 0:19:55.044 several lines, like the f whatever lines were shut down 0:19:55.044 --> 0:19:57.084 because of a loose dog that I had in somewhere 0:19:57.084 --> 0:20:00.764 in Brooklyn Heights. I think, right, And like, you know, 0:20:01.244 --> 0:20:04.924 I mean, there is a big cost to shutting down 0:20:04.964 --> 0:20:05.484 the subway. 0:20:05.524 --> 0:20:06.404 It makes people late. 0:20:06.444 --> 0:20:09.124 It means that can include like emergency workers and things 0:20:09.124 --> 0:20:12.004 like that, because often in New York the fastest way 0:20:12.044 --> 0:20:14.124 to get around is with the subway, no matter, you know, 0:20:14.364 --> 0:20:16.244 unless you have an ambulance with the right of way 0:20:16.604 --> 0:20:20.484 and things like that. Right, and people are comfortable talking 0:20:20.524 --> 0:20:22.644 about like what is the cost of a lost hour 0:20:22.684 --> 0:20:25.204 of economic productivity? And how's that way against a dog's 0:20:25.244 --> 0:20:26.204 life and things like that. 0:20:26.244 --> 0:20:28.204 But the point is that like that. 0:20:28.124 --> 0:20:30.204 When you kind of force people to make decisions that 0:20:30.244 --> 0:20:34.644 are explicit and if playing their logic then then that 0:20:34.724 --> 0:20:37.844 becomes problematic in some ways. 0:20:37.924 --> 0:20:42.404 Right, Yeah, And you know when you are talking about 0:20:42.444 --> 0:20:45.484 all of these autonomous vehicles and all of these different companies, 0:20:45.684 --> 0:20:48.924 you have to realize. I mean we've talked about this before, 0:20:48.964 --> 0:20:51.924 but I think it's a really important point that algorithms 0:20:51.964 --> 0:20:53.364