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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just mop that actions.

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Speaker 3: All right. Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting up to cash touchtop.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank small. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to pass.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's NFL Week fourteen. Have

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Speaker 1: we got any time touchdown bets for you? I'll be

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Speaker 1: joined by one of the most accurate rankers in the game,

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, and touchdown savant Joe galant ingest a moment.

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Speaker 1: We'll get right into these touchdowns, but before we do,

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Speaker 1: I'll toss it over to myself for a word from

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Speaker 1: our sponsor. The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by Draft

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Speaker 1: DraftKings to get on board. The crown is yours all right.

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Speaker 1: Last week we hit on a bunch of these RJ. Harvey,

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Speaker 1: brock Bauers, Josh Allen, Trey McBride, Lake Corramout, Pierce Dwan Jennings,

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Speaker 1: Harold Fann and Adie Mitchell, Breton Strange, AJ Brown, Christian

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Speaker 1: Watson Kerner. Good week for us, How you feeling? And

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Speaker 1: start us off with the Washington at Minnesota game. I

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Speaker 1: know you're looking forward to the quarterback match with.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah, I love this game.

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Speaker 4: Although it does sound like you know, Jane Daniels could

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Speaker 4: return this week, so that's gonna be huge. But for

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Speaker 4: the commander set, I'm gonna go Trailon Burkes at plus

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Speaker 4: eight twenty five. And I'm kicking myself because I nearly

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Speaker 4: went with him last week for Mo Night Football. But

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Speaker 4: just the wide receiver situation is such a mess. I

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Speaker 4: didn't have a good handle on who was going to play,

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Speaker 4: but sure enough, Burke scored and he you know, he

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Speaker 4: saw a healthy routes run rate at seventy one percent,

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Speaker 4: made that amazing touchdown grab. And we have to remember,

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Speaker 4: you know, he was a first round pick just a

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Speaker 4: few years ago. He's just missed a ton of time

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Speaker 4: due to injuries. So he might you know, turn out

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Speaker 4: as you know.

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Speaker 3: A solid wide receiver.

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Speaker 4: We'll see, but I think the commanders will kind of

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Speaker 4: want to see what they have in him going forward,

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Speaker 4: so I think he'll be out there for most three

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Speaker 4: wide receiver sets. So I'm projecting him closer to plus

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Speaker 4: six eighty here, and that's with Mariota projected in, so

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Speaker 4: I think if you know, Jane Daniels plays, that probably

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Speaker 4: only helps him. So I like Burks here at plus

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Speaker 4: eight twenty five. And then the other side, I'm showing

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Speaker 4: zero value on any Vikings player to score a touchdown.

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Speaker 4: But the guy I am pretty much even with is

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Speaker 4: Josh Oliver at ten to one. So in these situations,

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Speaker 4: it's like, why not go with the dart throw? If

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Speaker 4: you already think the team might not score, let's go

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Speaker 4: let's stick with our guys. You'll Josh Oliver ten to one.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's continued to see an uptickt routes run rate.

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Speaker 4: Last week it was, you know, right around twenty five percent,

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Speaker 4: and he's typically going to be out there, you know,

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Speaker 4: in heavier personnel and red zone situations.

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Speaker 3: So you know, Max.

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Speaker 4: Brosmer was apparently not better than JJ McCarthy, so maybe

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Speaker 4: getting McCarthy back gives this offensive boost. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 4: projecting Oliver right around ten to one, so at least

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Speaker 4: you're getting I would consider fair odds on him here

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Speaker 4: at ten to one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can always have just gone with the

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Speaker 1: commander's defense, but they're probably equally as terrible as correct McCarthy.

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Speaker 2: So I understand.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, former Titans receivers in the nfcast versus AJ Brown,

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Speaker 1: Trayling Berths.

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Speaker 2: Next.

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Speaker 1: All right, Jill, how are you doing? Colts Jaguars feeling

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Speaker 1: pretty good?

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Speaker 5: And Kerner. I was gonna say, if this was the

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Speaker 5: Interception show, Max Brosmann would be our number one pick,

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Speaker 5: but you know, obviously that's not gonna be the case.

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Speaker 5: But let's talk about Colts Jaggs. I wrote about him

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Speaker 5: in my Anytime Touchdown preview that gets published every Sunday

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Speaker 5: morning just before we do Action Playbook Live, and it

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Speaker 5: was about Tyler Warren and I'm very high on him

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Speaker 5: again this week, so I'm gonna run him back. The

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Speaker 5: Jags they've allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this year,

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Speaker 5: they're bottom five and targets catches and yards to the position.

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Speaker 5: He leads the team in red zone targets. They also

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Speaker 5: play zone and two high safety at top ten rates,

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Speaker 5: which helps Tyler Warren. But I think another reason why

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Speaker 5: I like him here is I think there's going to

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Speaker 5: be more short yardage tush push scenarios for him. Given

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Speaker 5: where Daniel Jones is with his leg injury, I don't

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Speaker 5: think he's going to try to push that very often.

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Speaker 5: So I think if they try to go from a

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Speaker 5: decoy standpoint, I think Tyler Warren could be in that

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Speaker 5: spot to do that. So he's around plus two hundred.

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Speaker 5: So that's why I like on the Colt side. On

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Speaker 5: the jack side'm going right back to Trevor Lawrence five

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Speaker 5: rushing touchdowns this year, similar to Warren very much being

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Speaker 5: used in short yardist situations near the goal line. No

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Speaker 5: leg injuries as far as we know compared to Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 5: One of the things too is really encouraging about Trevor

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Speaker 5: Lawrence third amongst all quarterbacks and carries inside the five

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Speaker 5: yard line this season with three rushing touchdowns. So that's

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Speaker 5: basically Jalen hurts Josh Allen and then you got Trevor

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Speaker 5: Lawrence like right after that. So I think the Colts

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Speaker 5: they're gonna be able to get after Lawrence their top

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Speaker 5: five from pressure rate per drop back. Like most quarterbacks,

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Speaker 5: his scramble rate does go up when he is pressured.

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Speaker 5: I think there's also potential of a DPI in the

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Speaker 5: end zone. I was looking it up and the Colts

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Speaker 5: so far our bottom five and defensive pass interference penalties

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Speaker 5: this year, with four of them being in the end zone.

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Speaker 5: So I think there's a chance that we could get

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Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence with a little bit of a toush push

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Speaker 5: as well. And I'll leave you with this. I know

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Speaker 5: it's a regular season game, but I feel like this

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Speaker 5: might be the biggest game of Trevor Lawrence's career so far,

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Speaker 5: given the referendum on his status as a top pick

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Speaker 5: and whatnot. I know he played in the playoffs, against

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Speaker 5: the Chargers. But I think, to me, this is kind

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Speaker 5: of a game that could kind of a legacy game

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Speaker 5: I would put it.

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Speaker 2: So you're saying he's gonna be doing terribly well.

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Speaker 3: I hope he does.

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Speaker 2: You got money on the Jaguars. Don't tell me that

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Speaker 2: a lot, right ever.

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Speaker 1: Trust Trevor Lawrence. Hits a legacy game for Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna walk right out that door. The door is

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Speaker 1: gonna slam behind him.

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Speaker 5: Well, hopefully one of the stats helps him if he's injured,

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Speaker 5: it helps him back to the locker room.

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Speaker 2: Man. Yeah, I mean, hopefully you can get in the

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Speaker 2: end zone here.

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Speaker 1: He's been doing it a ton, and I got, like

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Speaker 1: I said, got money on the Jags, So I hope

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Speaker 1: he does it for our sake. All right, Saints going

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Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay to face the Bucks. I'm going with

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Speaker 1: Devon vel for the Saints plus three eighty. He has

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Speaker 1: He actually scored a time I think a week after

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Speaker 1: I was on him. But he's been operating as a

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Speaker 1: top three receiver for the Saints. Really, they're co number

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Speaker 1: one along with Chris o'lave. Because remember they released Brandon

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Speaker 1: Cooks for his request and traded Rashid Shaheed, and so

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Speaker 1: Veyle has jumped up from number four to number two.

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Speaker 1: He's the guy they traded for before the season, so

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Speaker 1: they clearly want to get him more involved. So it's

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Speaker 1: been him, Olave and then Mason Tipton in three wide

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Speaker 1: receiver sets.

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Speaker 2: Love him in this matchup.

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay been giving up most of their touchdowns two

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Speaker 1: opposing wide receivers because their defense against the run is

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Speaker 1: so strong with Vitevea in the middle there, so it's

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Speaker 1: hard to run one in on them. And then for

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Speaker 1: the Bucks, going with Bucky Irgring at minus one oh five,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get to fancy here. A lot of

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Speaker 1: questions about what's going to happen in the receiver room.

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Speaker 1: Evans and McMillan are back at practice, but this is

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Speaker 1: a division matchup. Buck's home favorites, and even on the road.

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Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago, they went super run heavy

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Speaker 1: against the Saints. That was one of those Sean Tucker

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Speaker 1: breakout games. Bucki's back now, so he's gonna get first

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Speaker 1: crack at those goal line carries, So like him to

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Speaker 1: get one in here.

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Speaker 2: At minus one five.

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Speaker 1: Kerner Jets Dolphins now I got I got money on

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Speaker 1: the Jets, So don't tell me anything crazy about like

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Speaker 1: a legacy game for Tyrod Taylor.

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Speaker 2: Where are we going with that?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, thank god I have the Jets game

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Speaker 4: this week. I gotta go with my guy. Ady Mitchell

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Speaker 4: now down to plus two sixty, So I think he

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Speaker 4: has finally arrived, at least when it comes to the

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Speaker 4: touchdown market. And you know, he was a second round

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Speaker 4: pick last season, very talented, but very raw as a

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Speaker 4: wide receiver, and he just wasn't getting much playing time

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Speaker 4: in Indy, so that wasn't a good situation for him

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Speaker 4: to you know, figure it out. So I love the

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Speaker 4: move to the Jets. He is operating as a clear

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Speaker 4: top receiver right now. Last week he ran around on

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Speaker 4: ninety eight percent of Tyrod's dropbacks and had, you know,

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Speaker 4: just a clear breakout game. Ten catches one hundred and

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Speaker 4: two yards in a touch but he was making some

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Speaker 4: really good like catches underneath. He made a catch along

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Speaker 4: the sideline where he kept both feet in. Those are

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Speaker 4: the signs I was looking for for him to really

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Speaker 4: break out. So you know, the market has definitely caught

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Speaker 4: onto him. But I think he's better than people realize,

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Speaker 4: and if the breakout really is here, it could be

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Speaker 4: a legacy game for Adie Mitchell. So you know, I'm

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Speaker 4: projecting him at plus two twenty. I still think this

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Speaker 4: guy's a limit for him, So give me eighty at

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Speaker 4: plus two sixty. I'm sure he won't score this week,

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Speaker 4: and then one of you two will take him next

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Speaker 4: week and he will so happy to do my part

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Speaker 4: there and then yeah, Dolphins side, I like Malik Washington

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Speaker 4: at plus three seventy. You know, he really is just

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Speaker 4: operating as the clear number two wide receiver for the

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Speaker 4: Dolphins right now, but they also give him design run plays.

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Speaker 4: He's their kickoff returnment, he's their punt returner, so he

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Speaker 4: always has multiple different paths to score anytime he touches

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Speaker 4: the ball. I feel like he's a threat to score.

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Speaker 4: So I'm projecting him poke like right around plus two

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Speaker 4: to seventy. So I love the value we're getting here

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Speaker 4: at plus three seventy.

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Speaker 1: I feel like the leak Washington is what like a

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Speaker 1: lot of people thought Jalen Wright could be for that team,

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Speaker 1: you know, like just like a gadget guy who's fast, Like.

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Speaker 2: No, it's gonna be leake Washington. But yeah, he's he's

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Speaker 2: he's always involved in that.

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Speaker 1: He's really their number two receiver flat out like Westbrooga,

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Speaker 1: Kina and Cedric Wilson don't play much at number three

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Speaker 1: year row Jill Titans at Brown's. We're looking for offensive

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Speaker 1: fireworks and this one who he got.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, if there's any legacy, it'll be how many points

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Speaker 5: are probably not scored in this game. Let's start on

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Speaker 5: the brown side. Harold Fan another one we hit last

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Speaker 5: week versus the Niners. He's got three touchdowns this year,

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Speaker 5: and regardless of quarterback, whether it's been Joe Flacco, Dylan Gabriel, Shader, Sanders,

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Speaker 5: they've all kind of looked for him, and especially Shador

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Speaker 5: in most of his two starts. I think the other

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Speaker 5: thing too, was Sanders. He's not really I know we

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Speaker 5: saw him make that class or pass rather to Isaiah

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Speaker 5: baumb but he hasn't really been a great deep ball thrower,

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Speaker 5: so I think the short throws to reliable targets. There's

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Speaker 5: kind of more of what he's in line with the Titans.

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Speaker 5: Of course, they're not good defensively. They play a lot

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Speaker 5: of his own, a lot too high safety. That's gonna

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Speaker 5: be good for Fan and who's the targets per rout

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Speaker 5: run leader against both of those coverages. So we're gonna

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Speaker 5: go with Harold Fan and he's around plus three forty.

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Speaker 5: On the Titan side, though, I like another tight end,

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Speaker 5: that rookie Titan Gunner Helm. He's around six to one.

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Speaker 5: He's really seen his role increase over the last three games.

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Speaker 5: Over that span, seventeen targets. He's out snapped Chig of

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Speaker 5: Congoo in that time. Tends to see a higher target

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Speaker 5: rate versus man coverage in single high safety. You know,

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Speaker 5: that's what we're gonna see from the Browns. They play

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Speaker 5: both of those at the highest rate in the NFL.

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Speaker 5: And for what it's worth, when he caught his only

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Speaker 5: touchdown this year was against man defense. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: ride with that gunner Helm six to one.

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Speaker 1: I love me some gunner hell Man. He's I think

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Speaker 1: they should have been playing him more, But of course

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Speaker 1: they're the Titans, so what.

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Speaker 2: Are you gonna do?

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Speaker 1: But I love that This week Seahawks Falcons, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go with a couple guys that don't score. How many

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Speaker 1: touchdowns haven't this year? Kyle Pits for the Falcons at

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Speaker 1: plus two thirty. Seattle's just been really good against running backs,

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Speaker 1: so this might be a game where if the Falcons

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Speaker 1: getting the end zone, it might not be Bijan or Tyler.

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Speaker 1: Alt year, they've given up only six touchdowns all year

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Speaker 1: two running backs and you know fifteen combined to wide

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Speaker 1: receivers and tight end, So I do think you want

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Speaker 1: to look for a pass catcher. Obviously, if one then

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Speaker 1: comes back, he's a good option. But I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: a pits here because Seattle number twenty nine in DVOA

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Speaker 1: against the tight end position, that's really been the only

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Speaker 1: on paper weakness for this defense. So now is a

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Speaker 1: better time than never for Kyle Pitts to get in

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Speaker 1: the end zone and on the other side, go overt

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Speaker 1: Rashik Shahed at three to one. Atlanta allows the highest

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Speaker 1: average up to target defensively in the league, so this

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Speaker 1: is a time where they could look deep to Shahed

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Speaker 1: and remember him and Kubiak are familiar with that Atlanta

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Speaker 1: defense from their time together in New Orleans, so this

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Speaker 1: could be I know, shh, he's been really quiet, just

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Speaker 1: running wind sprints out there, cardio kinging it. But this

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Speaker 1: could be a time where they actually look to get

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Speaker 1: him a couple of these those deep targets and sneak

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Speaker 1: up on everybody.

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Speaker 2: So I came at three to one. Kerner.

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Speaker 1: Divisional matchups Steelers Ravens, could be some weather, could just

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Speaker 1: be some AFC North.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Do I need to know, like, do you have the

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Speaker 3: under on this game or I'm.

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Speaker 2: Just I'm thinking about it?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the late season uh FC Jim Nansen,

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Speaker 6: Tony Romo call in this game, it's gonna be three

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Speaker 6: zip in the fourth quarter, right, is that what we're expecting?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, I already bet the under in this game. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I said, thinking about it, I was thinking about the

294
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Speaker 1: I I was thinking about the Raiders game that I

295
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Speaker 1: met the under on yet. But no, yeah, this game

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Speaker 1: I bet the under on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I totally expected to just be a like a ugly

299
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Speaker 1: physical I mean, everyone's tied for the division leads somehow.

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Speaker 2: It's crazy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I can get you know, I can't take

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Speaker 4: Derek Henry at minus two hundred or whatever it is.

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Speaker 4: I gotta go two long shots here On the Ravens side,

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Speaker 4: Devontes Walker at fifteen to one. He's similar to Isaac

305
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Speaker 4: tislaw Right. Where he makes the rare time he does

306
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Speaker 4: get a catch count. He has three touchdowns on five

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Speaker 4: catches over his first two seasons. Good luck trying to

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Speaker 4: figure out whenever those touchdowns would happen. But last week

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Speaker 4: it was pretty interesting. We finally saw Tylan Wallace was

310
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Speaker 4: a healthy scratch. So Walker operated as the clear you know,

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Speaker 4: number four receiver where he was running a route you know,

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Speaker 4: on twenty five percent of Lamar's dropbacks.

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Speaker 3: So I think this.

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Speaker 4: Is the rare time where we at least know he's

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Speaker 4: going to be out there a decent amount. So I

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Speaker 4: actually have him closer to you know, eleven to one

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Speaker 4: in that role. So gimme Walker at fifteen to one here,

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Speaker 4: and then on the Steelers side, I mean, what a nightmare.

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Speaker 4: Gimme Roman Wilson at eight to one, you know, similar

320
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Speaker 4: to the Vikings, not really showing much value on any Steelers.

321
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Speaker 4: And I realized, you know, they just brought in an

322
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Speaker 4: Adam Feelen. I'm sure that's really going to move the needle.

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Speaker 4: But you know, any stat I'm curious to hear what

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Speaker 4: your routes thrown. Right, he does raybond for him, but

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Speaker 4: I'm guessing you know, he'll eat into Roman Wilson snaps somewhat.

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Speaker 4: Maybe Calvin Austin snaps, but you know, Wilson's already kind

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Speaker 4: of in a boombust role where he tends to get

328
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Speaker 4: you know, downfield targets anyway, so I'm not really expecting

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Speaker 4: a ton of playing time. And ever since he's been around,

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Speaker 4: you know, a fifty routes run right role, he has

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Speaker 4: two touchdowns in seven games. So again, you know they

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Speaker 4: have ten tight ends, you know, just running routes, run

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Speaker 4: line scrimmage, and Roman Wilson running deep, so that kind

334
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Speaker 4: of gives him an added path to score, like a long,

335
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Speaker 4: fluky touchdown here. So give me Wilson an eight to one.

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Speaker 4: But how many routes run are you projecting feeling for

337
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Speaker 4: this week? Is he just gonna get eased in zero?

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Speaker 3: Oh? Thank god? Zero?

339
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Speaker 2: Okay. It's like it was like when they signed Robert Woods.

340
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Speaker 1: In the preseason and then Mike talk like that they

341
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Speaker 1: saw him practicing and they're like, oh, this this bum

342
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Speaker 1: gonna like deactivate him and he asked for his release.

343
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Speaker 2: It's like, what do they think is gonna happen when Adam.

344
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Speaker 1: Dewen gets to Steelers practice, Like you're really gonna throw

345
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Speaker 1: him out there against the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: Well, you want to play outside of Carolina?

347
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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.

348
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Speaker 4: He did what he said he wanted to join a

349
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Speaker 4: Super Bowl contender. So is he moving to another team

350
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Speaker 4: at some point before the years up?

351
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Speaker 1: He's I mean, maybe not by choice, maybe team free agent.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

353
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Speaker 1: He's if they if they activate him, that is. I

354
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Speaker 1: mean that's just better for whoever's not him to score touchdown.

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Speaker 2: It's like, soye.

356
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Speaker 3: Right exactly, Okay, you feel better.

357
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Speaker 1: I mean it's Adam Dee when I don't know what

358
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Speaker 1: to say?

359
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 2: Uh, all right? Who got?

360
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 1: Oh Bengals and Bill's Jill. We were talking about this

361
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 1: one off air should be interesting. Good Ben was gonna

362
00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,600
Speaker 1: make up some ground here on on one of the

363
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,120
Speaker 1: whoever loses that Steelers matchup, so I know they'll be

364
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 1: kind of putting forth their best effort and the Bills

365
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Speaker 1: still in a kind of dogfight in that AFC playoff race.

366
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Speaker 3: Who we got?

367
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Speaker 5: Well, both of my picks are kind of up in

368
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 5: the air right now because just full disclosure, like we're

369
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 5: recording this Thursday, and I really like Dalton Kincaid in

370
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 5: this matchup. But he's limited practice on Wednesday and Thursdays

371
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 5: starting to come up with a knee injury. So if

372
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 5: he does practice in full on Friday, that's who I

373
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,439
Speaker 5: would go with. Because again the Bengals defense, they've allowed

374
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Speaker 5: the most touchdowns of tight ends this year. They actually

375
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 5: broke the streak of a six game streak of allowing

376
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 5: a touchdown to a tight end and it took Isaiah

377
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,880
Speaker 5: Likely to drop it before he crossed the goal line.

378
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 5: So but and one thing about the Bengals defense too.

379
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 5: They've sneakily been ranking top five and man coverage in

380
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,680
Speaker 5: single high over the last four games. Some of it

381
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 5: could be matchup dependent, but usually they were more of

382
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 5: a zone too high. They've been doing that like top

383
00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,439
Speaker 5: five for the last four weeks and gap.

384
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Speaker 1: If you gave up a thousand touchdowns a tight end,

385
00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 1: you would switch it your coverage out and start.

386
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:03,160
Speaker 2: Well.

387
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:04,680
Speaker 3: Whenever they're doing keep.

388
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 5: Doing it, and then we'll bet on the tight end

389
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,480
Speaker 5: on the other side, right because I mean right now,

390
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,680
Speaker 5: if we're if they're going to keep doing that, Kincaid,

391
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,880
Speaker 5: I think regardless if they play zone or or man

392
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 5: against man again with that knee injury, that's where we're

393
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,719
Speaker 5: at right now where Thursday night, if you're looking at it,

394
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 5: that's who we like. But again it all depends on

395
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 5: the next practice. And like you had kind of mentioned

396
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,919
Speaker 5: off air that the Bills, they're a little more conservative

397
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,399
Speaker 5: on that front. If guys kind of limited, they might

398
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,520
Speaker 5: hold him out. So if that is the case, let's

399
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 5: pivot over to Dawson Knox at plus three fifty. So

400
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 5: keep that in mind. At if Dalton Kincaid is out,

401
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 5: we're going to take Dawson Knox instead. So Dalton Kincaid

402
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 5: is who we like, but Dawson Knox is who will

403
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 5: pivot to. On the Bengals side, he is expected to

404
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,360
Speaker 5: return to the lineup even though he left last game

405
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 5: with the concussion. T Higgins there now is around plus

406
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 5: one eighty five, and I love this bet this week.

407
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,840
Speaker 5: I mean Joe Burrow back. I know that Joe Flacco

408
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,679
Speaker 5: was doing well, but the passing game is just going

409
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 5: to have even more upside in my opinion with Joe

410
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,119
Speaker 5: Burrow and Higgins. Like I love Jamar Chase, but he

411
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 5: leads the team with eight end zone targets and seven touchdowns.

412
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 5: And even though we know when Chase and Burrow are

413
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 5: in the lineup together, we know they are going to

414
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,400
Speaker 5: get force fed ten or more targets. But I think

415
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 5: the Bills what they've been really good at doing is

416
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 5: taking out certain wide receiver ones and just kind of

417
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 5: bracket or doubling them. And if that's the case, I

418
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 5: think there's just gonna be war one on one matchups

419
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 5: for Higgins and he can win on those matchups. So

420
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 5: at plus win eighty five, if you're gonna give me

421
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 5: a receiver of his talent, I'm taking that almost every time.

422
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 5: With Burrow back in the lineup.

423
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: All Right, we got Denver at Vegas. Yeah, this is

424
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 1: one where another one. I'm very tempted to bet the

425
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 1: under on this one as well, but it is indoors.

426
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 2: We'll see how that goes.

427
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: I'm going with Troy Franklin for the Broncos turn. I

428
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,119
Speaker 1: know I talked to you earlier in the week about

429
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 1: how I think people might be able to more down

430
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 1: on Franklin now because everyone was expecting big things last week.

431
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: Kind of had an equal with Sutton and he disappointed.

432
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 1: But this is the matchup for in Vegas. The second

433
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 1: most zone coverage in the week throughout the season, right

434
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,600
Speaker 1: around eighty percent and Franklin Weeds the team of targets, catches,

435
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 1: and yards against zone coverage. So this is a Troy

436
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 1: Franklin type of matchup here. And then for the Raiders,

437
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,680
Speaker 1: Ashton Genty running backs have scored seven touchdowns in the

438
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,239
Speaker 1: last six versus Denver. On the season, running backs ten

439
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 1: touchdowns versus the Broncos wide receivers and tight ends eight combined.

440
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,239
Speaker 1: That is pretty absurd considering most teams that are going

441
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 1: to pass, you know, at a two to one rate

442
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 1: against a team like Denver anyway, So this is one

443
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: where I feel like you just have to take the

444
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 1: running back here. We know the Raiders want to get

445
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 1: Genty involved on a weekly basis. So Franklin Genty in

446
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 1: Broncos Raiders, Kerner.

447
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 2: We're back.

448
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 1: I guess this is the week of divisional matchups because

449
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,719
Speaker 1: we got another one that could get I mean, got

450
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: a reputation for getting ugly, but I mean the Packers

451
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 1: they have like thirty seven wide receivers healthy now maybe

452
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 1: finally so maybe not.

453
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: But who do you like in Bears Packers?

454
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 3: Yeah?

455
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 4: No, I hated getting the Vikings game, hated the game

456
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 4: in the Steelers game, but I love this game, especially

457
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 4: because I get to beat on my guy, Luther Burden

458
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 4: the third here again at plus four point fifty. You know,

459
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:06,719
Speaker 4: I'm going to continue to invest in him now that

460
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 4: he's now been promoted to being you know, top three

461
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 4: receiver now in this offense. It was only a matter

462
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 4: of time and last week, you know, he led the

463
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 4: team with six targets. I feel like he could have

464
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 4: had an even bigger game if you know, they weren't

465
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 4: playing with the.

466
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,719
Speaker 3: Lead late in the game. So I think he has

467
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: a ton of upside.

468
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 4: And Roma Doonsay it looks like he missed practice, so

469
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 4: you know, if he misses, I'm gonna like this even

470
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 4: more because I'm projecting Luther right around plus four hundred

471
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 4: assuming everyone's healthy, So I'm gonna like this even more,

472
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 4: you know, O Doonsday's what I'm trying to say is

473
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 4: lock it in now because a Doonsay could miss and

474
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:42,120
Speaker 4: you know this.

475
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 3: Is going to go down a plus three hundred or something.

476
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,679
Speaker 4: So love the Burden play here and then man the

477
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 4: Packers tight end situation. It's always fun to project weekend

478
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 4: week out because it just changes constantly. Ever since Tucker

479
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 4: Craft went out for the season, but you wouldn't know.

480
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 4: But last week Josh Wiley rated as the clear lead

481
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 4: tight end with what a forty eight percent routes run rate.

482
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 4: You would know because he didn't catch a single pass.

483
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 4: But you know, I think this week, if if he's

484
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 4: still operating as you know, the lead tight end, plus

485
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 4: nine hundred is way too much value. You know, I'm

486
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: projecting him actually closer like plus five eighty and I'm

487
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 4: not even giving him the fifty percent routes run rate

488
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 4: last week. I'm closer like thirty five forty percent. But

489
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 4: once they do get in the red zone, you know,

490
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 4: Tucker Craft is giving up you know, a lot of

491
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,199
Speaker 4: touch on upside to these three guys. So any one

492
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 4: of these three guys is probably offering value right now.

493
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 4: But Wiley's the guy I want to invest in at

494
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 4: plus nine hundred. If he does keep this up and

495
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: he you know, catches a touchdown this week, you know

496
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 4: next week he could be plus two to fifty plus

497
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 4: three hundred. So this is the time I want to

498
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 4: get on early and just kind of go with the

499
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 4: where the market's going with the routes run rate.

500
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 3: So give me Wiley at plus nine hundred.

501
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 1: Here I noticed that sixty three percent route right, and

502
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 1: I hate those because I don't know what to do

503
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 1: with them. It's like he he bumped up from like

504
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: a thirty percent two weeks in a row. But it

505
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 1: seems like he's trending up because he did catch a

506
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 1: touchdown a couple of weeks ago, and he's he's their

507
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: most like he's the best receiving titand out of the bunch.

508
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 1: He got cut from Tennessee because he really wasn't a

509
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: great blocker, and I guess that's what they're looking for.

510
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 1: David Martin Robinson type guy.

511
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 4: So yeah, he's him fifty, so a little bit smaller

512
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 4: than Fitzpatrick, but a good, good, just good red zone target.

513
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: You know, Joe, we got the cards and the rams.

514
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: So this is another divisional matchup, although this one should

515
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 1: be played in good conditions.

516
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: Some decent, decent offenses in this one. Who we're looking at.

517
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 5: Well on the Cardinals side. Right now, I'm seeing Trey

518
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 5: McBride at plus one fifty at DraftKings. I don't know

519
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 5: if I could pass on him at that price because

520
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 5: usually he's been around like ever since Jacoby Brissett has

521
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 5: taken over he's around plus one ten, plus one twenty.

522
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 5: So when I'm getting plus one fifty, that's when I

523
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 5: feel like we're in the sweet spot. He's just been

524
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 5: a monster for touchdown props. I feel like we've given

525
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 5: him out now probably in three of the last four

526
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 5: shows eight touchdowns this year seven just in the games

527
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 5: with Jacobe Prissett scored in six of the seven games

528
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 5: with percent at quarterback, easily leads the team with twenty

529
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 5: one red zone targets. But I know it's a tougher

530
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 5: matchup because like right now, the Rams, they're number second,

531
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 5: number two rather in defensive DVOWA versus tight ends. But honestly,

532
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 5: they just they force feed him ten plus targets every

533
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 5: game when he's out there. So I think Trey mcru

534
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,719
Speaker 5: rickbride rather is the guy we won on the Cardinals side.

535
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,479
Speaker 5: And then of course Terrence Ferguson, I've been burned by

536
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 5: him before. I think we've all been burned by him.

537
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 5: We all just want him to do well in this offense.

538
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 5: But when he's plus one thousand, like, I'm gonna have

539
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 5: to play him almost every time because the Cardinals their

540
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 5: bottom five in defensive DEVOA versus tight ends, and they're

541
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 5: also bottom five versus the deep ball, and that checks

542
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 5: the boxes preferred. Because he leads the team by a

543
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 5: mile in a he tends to see that higher target

544
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 5: rate versus man, which the Cardinals have played at a

545
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 5: top ten rate over the last four games. So I

546
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 5: just think when you look at the touchdown notes for

547
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 5: the Rams right now, it's Davante Adams, Puka Nakua, and

548
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 5: Kyram Williams are all minus one ten or higher. And

549
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 5: then you have Kolby Parkinson, who we loved when he

550
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 5: were getting them at like plus four fifty, but even

551
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 5: he's now down to like plus two twenty. So I

552
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 5: think it's ferg or even maybe even Davis Allen who's

553
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 5: around ten to one as well. But I'm gonna take

554
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 5: Terrence Ferguson with the upside at ten to one.

555
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: I'm actually really proud of you for not just going

556
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: with Davante Adams. Well, we know he's gonna score another.

557
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: Two, so I should have.

558
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 1: Hopefully Ferguson can get into it. I mean, I've been

559
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 1: betting on for I've bet on Ferguson's yarda draft week.

560
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: He didn't get there, but I think he's due. He's

561
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 1: he's a very talented guy. Jumped off the screen. I

562
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: thought in the preseason in a little action he did

563
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 1: get all right, Before we continue, don't forget to sign

564
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: up for Action Pro for real time pickle from experts

565
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: like Sean Kerner, Joe Gilant, myself in our entire Action

566
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 1: or team. Plus, you can access pro projections powered by

567
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: Kerner and our predictive analytics teams. To go to Action

568
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: Network dot Com slash Pro, get twenty dollars off the

569
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: annual price with promo code Pod twenty It's Pod two zero.

570
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,479
Speaker 1: Don't mess out on the best bets at the best prices.

571
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: Been at Action Network dot Com Slash Pro and use

572
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: promo code Pod twenty. That's Po D two zero to

573
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: get twenty dollars off one year of Action Pro. All right,

574
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 1: Before we get into the primetime games, we'll do our

575
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 1: favorite Sunday Anytime Touchdown Daytime Parlay presented by DraftKings and Kerner.

576
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 1: Your first up, who do you like on the Sunday

577
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: slate for a touchdown? Your favorite bet?

578
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: Yeah?

579
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,479
Speaker 4: My favorite bets Ady Mitchell at plus two to forty.

580
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 4: You know I've been talking up all week. He's He's

581
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 4: always had a ton of talent. Figured it would take

582
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 4: some time for him to really break out, but I

583
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 4: think we saw that last week and he is a

584
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 4: full time, true alpha receiver on the Jets right now.

585
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 4: So I'm just going to ride the wave here and

586
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 4: take him at plus two forty.

587
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 5: Joe going with T Higgins full practice on Thursday, trending

588
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 5: up from the concussions, so I think he's in a

589
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 5: prime spot to score, especially when we're getting him around

590
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 5: plus one eighty five.

591
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna go off the board here.

592
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: I didn't get this game, but I'm going with Michael

593
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: Wilson of the Cardinals plus one ninety five. The reason

594
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: he's had over five hundred yards in the games. Jacoby

595
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: Brissett has started zero touchdowns, but I have his expected

596
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 1: touchdowns at three, so he should have three more touchdowns

597
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: just in the last seven games alone, then he scored,

598
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 1: so I think he's the guy that is due. And

599
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 1: you look at the Cardinals' injury report, Marvin Harrison might

600
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: miss again. Greg Dorts banged up as well, so it's

601
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 1: really gonna be probably the McBride and Michael Wilson show

602
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: in this one against the Rams. So give me Michael

603
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 1: Wilson at plus one ninety five. You parlay Wilson along

604
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: with eighty Mitchell and t Higgins, and you get parlay

605
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: odds at DraftKings of just over twenty eight to one.

606
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 2: So nice, juicy one there.

607
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 1: That was our favorite anytime touchdown parlay for the Sunday

608
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: Afternoon slate presented by Draftkigs. All right, let's get into

609
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 1: Sunday night foot Texans at Chief Kerner, who are looking.

610
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 4: At Jayden Higgins at plus three p seventy. He's, you know,

611
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: a second round rookie who had a really slow start

612
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 4: to his rookie season, but he's been trending up of late,

613
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 4: you know, operating as a clear number two wide receiver

614
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 4: across from Nico Collins. And he actually has a twenty

615
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 4: nine percent target rate over the last four games, so

616
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 4: I think we could see his you know, playing time

617
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 4: increase and he's commanding a lot of targets, so he's

618
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: a you know, outside receiver that profiles is a good

619
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 4: red zone threat. He's six', four two point. Fifteen, Again

620
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 4: Nico collins is gonna be drawing a ton of attention

621
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 4: on the other, side So i'm Projecting higgins closer to

622
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 4: plus three, hundred but, again he's a guy that's just trending,

623
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 4: up so he could be offering even more value than.

624
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: That all, Right, joe who are you looking? At And texans?

625
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 5: Chief, Yeah i'm GONNA i know there's been a little

626
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 5: bit of a resurgence with The texans passing, game AND

627
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 5: i know that they could still move the, ball BUT

628
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 5: i still think that they try to lead With Woody. Marks,

629
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 5: now he over the last three, games he has just

630
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 5: been triple the amount of carries of What Nick chubb has,

631
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 5: done even Though chubb is the one who's got the

632
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 5: one touchdown in that. Span BUT i think right now

633
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 5: we're seeing him at plus one fifty. FIVE i Think

634
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 5: houston's gonna try to be methodical with their, offense AND

635
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 5: i think what he marks is going to see fifteen plus.

636
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 5: Carries So i'm going to take him at plus one fifty.

637
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 1: Five, Yeah We've march got knocked out of that game

638
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: for a little, while which is you, Know chubb got an,

639
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: uptick but he came back in and he did practice,

640
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 1: today so that's good news for. Me i'm gonna go

641
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 1: to another guy that did practice has missed some. Time

642
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: But Noah gray at ten to, one and this is,

643
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: just you, know one of those things where he's a

644
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: little underpriced coming back off an, injury and The, texans you,

645
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: know they're really good on the outside of. Corner SO

646
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: i think this is a game Where Andy reid may

647
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: try to get some heavier person down in there and

648
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: near the go, on and you're gonna be Covering Travis

649
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: kelsey first and. Foremost so that leads me To, gray

650
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: WHO i think can kind of sneak by and get

651
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: an easy touchdown. Here so Like gray around ten to.

652
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: One if you go parway those three, Together Jayden, Higgins Woody,

653
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 1: Marks Noah, gray you get big odds about one thirty to.

654
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: One so let's see if we can hit that. One

655
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: that would be, nice nice. One, yeah all, Right and

656
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: THEN i don't know about the offenses in this. Game

657
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: some question marks, there But Eagles Chargers Justin herbert had

658
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: surgery early in the, week expected to suit, up but

659
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: we'll see as the week progresses how that. Goes and

660
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: Then Jalen hurts is playing like his last name a

661
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: little bit at, times so this could be an interesting.

662
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: Matchup points could be hard to come, By, kerner who

663
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: are looking At i'm.

664
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 4: Gonna Take Dallas goddard here at plus three. Thirty he's

665
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 4: been real quiet of, late hasn't scored in the last

666
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 4: four games since Their week ten. By you, know Aj

667
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 4: brown just had that massive game last, week so maybe

668
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 4: that'll keep him happy for week or two and they

669
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 4: could hook got it up with the touchdown. Here but you,

670
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 4: Know goddard was on fire in the first of the,

671
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 4: season scored seven, touchdowns so you know it wouldn't shock

672
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: me if they try to get back to, that especially

673
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 4: with the offense. Struggling SO i think it's a great

674
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 4: time to buy. Low i'm projecting him closer to plus

675
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 4: two point fifty, Here so give Me goddard at plus

676
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 4: three point. Thirty, joe who do you.

677
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 2: Like In Eagles? Chargers?

678
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 5: YEAH i mean usually my rule of thumb with the

679
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 5: pass catchers on The chargers is to just take the

680
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 5: one with the longest. ODDS i know that that seems real,

681
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 5: Simple But Keenan allen right now is plus four, hundred

682
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 5: AND i don't really think there should be that much

683
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 5: of a, difference at least in this matchup between him

684
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 5: And ladd McConkey lads around plus two. Forty Quinton JOHNSTON

685
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 5: i don't really want anything to do with BECAUSE i

686
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 5: think him And Quinnyon mitchell will end up jousting for

687
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 5: most of this. Game SO i Think Keenan. Allen when

688
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 5: you can get a veteran receiver like, that he's probably

689
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,239
Speaker 5: gonna be playing more in the, slot doesn't have to

690
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,479
Speaker 5: deal with kind of the outside corners of The. Eagles

691
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:50,959
Speaker 5: IF i can get him at four to, one that's

692
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 5: WHO i would look.

693
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: At, YEAH i think he's only priced that. Way his

694
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: routes have been coming down a, little but he's still

695
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:57,719
Speaker 1: used in the red. Zone if they're in the red,

696
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: zone he's going to be that, top that top. Guy,

697
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: Really i'm gonna go With Kamani vadal here at plus three.

698
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: TEN i, think you, know we might get Some Amrion hampton.

699
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: Back we'll see how that. Goes But hardback hinted At

700
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 1: Kamani vidal remaining the top back even When hampton. Returns he,

701
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: said you, know his physical style tickles in or something like,

702
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: that something weird That i'm not even gonna. Repeat but

703
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: that's pretty good news For Kamani vidal and This eagles

704
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: defense against the.

705
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 2: Pass as you alluded, To, joe it's not.

706
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: Easy so they have been a little vulnerable against the

707
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: run on, paper at least more of a run, funnel you,

708
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: know number twenty two.

709
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 2: In dvoa against the.

710
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: Run so they've given up thirteen touchdowns combined the running

711
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 1: backs have The eagles and just nine to wide receivers

712
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: and tight ends. Combined so this is a matchup Where

713
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: i'm gonna look at the back for The. Chargers even

714
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: if he's in a committee, ROLE i still like his

715
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: odds BECAUSE i think he might actually get the top.

716
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: Crack remember how they started the season With harris was

717
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,239
Speaker 1: Above hampton, too so coming off an, INJURY i Think

718
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: vidal retains its top. Spot so like him at plus

719
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 1: three TEN a You Parlay, Kamani, Vidal Keenan, Allen Dallas,

720
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: goddard you get eighty five to one. Odds that's gonna

721
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 1: do it for Our week Fourteen touchdown. Show we'll add

722
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 1: these to the Anytime we'll have these anytime touchdowns to

723
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: The Parlay express account excuse me and the action apps

724
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,320
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725
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,280
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726
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,720
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727
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729
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730
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731
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Speaker 2: Picks you can also.

732
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: Find quick slip links for these bets in the podcast

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00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: and video, description or Visit action network dot com slash Bet.

734
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: Now that's Our week fourteen touchdown show presented By giraftkings

735
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 1: For Sean kerner And Jill. GALLANT i Am Chris. Raybon

736
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: you can Find kerner on x at The underscoreage make

737
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 1: Their jill at G dawg five zero zero, Zero i'm

738
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: At Chris. Raybond we're at those same handles on the

739
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: free award Winning Action network at and so next, time

740
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: let's get this money scuding the same to