WEBVTT - FINAL NFL WEEK 12 BETS - Eagles-Cowboys, Steelers-Bears, Vikings-Packers, Browns-Raiders, Bucs-Rams and more 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:04.800 Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by a hard brought Bet. 0:00:04.840 --> 0:00:08.360 We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is 0:00:08.440 --> 0:00:10.440 the show that makes the Square Sharper. It makes the 0:00:10.480 --> 0:00:13.200 wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmilman, I am joined 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:19.160 as always, Bye, my co hosts, my bff from my compadre, 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:25.319 my companion professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon Chad. 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:25.880 How are we doing? 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.600 Brother? I'm moving a little bit slowly today, so we 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:31.200 got to pick it up. We got to pick it 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:35.440 up and we gotta find our five favorite picks. This 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:38.800 is the in the room easdropping version of the Sunday 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:43.080 Sharper Square Show. In the morning, You're all going to 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.480 get to hear how we come to our conclusion. Because 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:49.800 we are human, we make decisions, we regret. I have 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:53.360 no doubt that will happen today. Are you ready, my brother? 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:54.760 Let's do it all right? 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:59.560 Seattle minus thirteen at Tennessee. We have liked this all week. 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:02.880 I will say we are starting to see signs even 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.160 though it's a thirteen or hard rock bet that it 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:07.560 is moving in the other direction. It's one of the 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:10.800 few big numbers that is moving in the other direction 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.760 towards Tennessee shows. Some wise guys are coming in on 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.759 the Titans. I don't see it. I don't get it. 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:19.240 This is the best team that the Titans have played 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.360 in the past few weeks. It will go against their 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:26.319 tendency to cover the back door. I don't think the 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:28.959 Seahawks have the same holes that their opponents the past 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:32.119 few weeks, the Texans and the Chargers have. I still 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.479 like the Seahawks. Here. Is it one of our favorite five? 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:39.280 Yeah, I don't know, because it's tough because it is 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.200 such a big number. We don't like betting such big 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:41.840 numbers like this. 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:45.440 So if we're gonna put one big number favorite in there, 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:46.720 I think you know where I'm gonna go with that. 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:48.080 I don't know if I think I agree. 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.760 Yeah, but yeah, I still bet Seattle. 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.480 Still like Seattle. But we talked earlier in the week. 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:57.400 There's some pros that really like Tennessee. They've been making 0:01:57.440 --> 0:01:59.640 money off Tennessee, like we talked about, since they fired 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.760 their head. They've just been a backdoor covering machine. And 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:07.400 it's interesting, like you just said this number thirteen here, 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:09.760 but a lot of books you see are going down to. 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:10.640 Twelve and a half. 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:12.920 Twelve and some even touched eleven and a half, So 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.680 it's some real money coming in on Tennessee at this point. 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:17.920 And yeah, I think we're both on the same page 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.080 where we don't see it. We don't really get it 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.639 because the Seahawks team to us, there's just a very 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:25.600 dominant defense where when Sam Donald puts it together, it's 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.519 a great offense as well. So I just I can't 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:30.960 see it. If I was gonna take a position, maybe 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:32.880 I'll throw a little bit on Tennessee first half. But 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:35.560 everything I've bet so far is just purely Seahawks and 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.040 the number. But like you said, in our contest, we're 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:43.160 playing the number here and I'm not thrilled to try 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:45.920 be forcing in a big Seahawks number at thirteen and 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:47.440 a half, and that's what it is in our contest. 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:48.639 So I'm gonna have to pass on that. 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:52.400 One, especially when the next game we're talking about the 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.280 New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. The Lions have 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.040 moved to twelve and a half and moved to twelve 0:02:57.080 --> 0:03:00.320 and a half after our Thursday show. We've been typing 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:03.799 the Lions all week at ten at ten and a half, 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.400 they were your Simon says there were some rumors Jackson 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:09.600 Dart might play this week, it's going to be Jamis. 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.119 I always was betting into it thinking it was Jamis. 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.200 We love the Lions here. I think it's going to 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:20.760 be impossible for us to ignore the Lions as the 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:22.840 big favorite against the Giants. 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.560 Yeah, it's been my favorite all week, big favorite. 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:30.760 And uh, like you said, the Dart and Neuve, that 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.880 was the most shocking part of Yeah, Dark Dark getting 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:36.600 put out as moved this two and a half three points, 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:38.160 like hard Rock now is up to thirteen. 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:40.200 A lot of other books are up to thirteen and 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.320 a half. The more public BOOKSHO up to thirteen and 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:42.600 a half. 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:45.480 So just shows you this early morning, which we knew 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:47.240 was going to happen, right, the public was going to 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:51.080 come in heavy on this Detroit side, but surprisingly the 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.880 pros were betting the Giants. It was a Dart bet, 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:57.440 which again I just I get he's highly talented. 0:03:57.480 --> 0:03:59.960 It never made sense though, It never made. 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.920 Sense, like you're you're really betting heavy into Dark coming 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:06.040 off a head injury in this matchup that I'm not 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:10.600 sure you can exploit really, But yeah, the we obviously 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:12.480 feel way more comfortable now the lines going the other 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:14.280 way and we have the best of the number, which 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:16.039 I hope if you listen to the show did because 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:18.240 our contest, like you just said, it's minus ten and 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.080 a half. So I still would bet the lines if 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:22.479 you could get the twelve and a half. I just 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:23.920 I think people listen to this is going to be 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.520 already thirteen thirteen and a half, which again I'm not 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.960 going to let scare me off. It's as much praise 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:30.400 you want to get. 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:31.000 Jameis Winston. 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:33.800 I think he threw for twardy yards zero touchdowns last week, 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.800 Like he's not he just doesn't have the weapons. Like 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:40.160 we've seen Jameis play really well, especially in Tampa and 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.359 different offenses he's had. He had great weapons there. He 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:45.800 doesn't really have that with this Giants team. So Giants 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:48.159 got the cover last week, the Pros they try to 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:49.800 come back on him this week, thinking it was gonna 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:50.599 be Jackson Dart. 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:52.120 They totally misread it. 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.679 And yeah, I'm just happy we stuck through our Detroit 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:57.960 love and like I said, it's it's moving. If you 0:04:57.960 --> 0:04:59.760 can get it below the thirteen and a half, I 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:00.599 would try to do that. 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.680 Now never even made sense to me. It never occurred 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:05.120 to me that Jackson Dart was going to be the 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.680 reason why this line would be holding it ten and 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:10.040 a half from moving up to twelve and a half 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.760 that he was out. This was Detroit all the way 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:18.680 all week. New England at Cincinnati. It's been a tricky one. 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:22.640 The Bengals are seven seven and a half point underdogs 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:25.560 depending on where you look, it's everywhere. If you can 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:27.600 get the seven and a half, you should go get it. 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:33.600 The Cincinnati Bengals, with Joe Flacco starting, are going to 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:37.960 be our rocket. A hard plays hard rock better the week. 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:39.400 Oh what a lot. 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.560 Look, we were betting into this early in the week 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:48.160 when we thought it was going to be Joe Flacco. 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.080 Then the rumors came out it might be Joe Burrow 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.080 that moved under six and a half. When it became 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:57.440 Flacco went back up to seven and a half. Nothing 0:05:57.480 --> 0:06:00.160 in my opinion or position has changed. The Bengals are 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:01.080 just the right side here. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:07.440 Yeah, and like you said, it's I honestly am shocked 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:10.200 that Burro didn't get his way and able to play 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:12.520 this game. They said, they're just trying to protect them 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:14.200 because it's a short week, right, They have a game 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:17.599 I believe Thursday and Thanksgiving against the Ravens. So you 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.560 know that makes sense, right, they're trying to protect himself 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:25.840 in this matchup. But I am also shocked the number 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:28.400 only moved by a point, which was interesting, right. 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:29.839 Because it got down to two and a half. 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:33.160 Yeah, I was hoping it would get up to eight 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:34.680 eight and a half like it was ear in the week. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.520 But the books, like you just said, they're holding firm 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:39.760 at seven and a half, and even hard Rock is 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.800 still stuck at seven. So pretty unique scenario. We know 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:47.240 what we're been into here since these defenses atrocious. If 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:49.840 Flaco throws a pick six, we're probably gonna be burned. 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:52.480 But we keep talking about this new England team as 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:53.120 good as they are. 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:55.159 If do you have weaknesses, you can exploit. 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:57.560 This SEXTU year a really good matchup for Cincinnati Offensively, 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:00.240 it's just all about Kenjoe Flack would keep up with 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.200 this scoring race because we've seen Drake may even he 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:05.080 has a thron for three undred yards this year. I 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:06.800 think he's leading the league in passing yards. I know 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:08.960 that's a part because he doesn't have a bye week yet, 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:11.880 but it just shows how consistent, the offense is right. 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:15.040 Even on bad days, may still throw for two ndred 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.240 yards and get putting his team in best positions to win. 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:19.200 So you know, we gave up the stat they won 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:21.440 age straight. They're due for a letdown game, do for 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:22.840 a Walls. Just a couple of teams like that this 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:24.800 week them and the Eagles feel like the prime example 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.320 of teams they're just due for a loss and a 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:30.480 bad spot because it's just matchup wise not great for them. 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:31.680 So in our. 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.400 Contest, Chad, we're never gonna avoid it. Cincinnati Bengals are 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:36.360 plus eight and a half. So this is the game 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.680 I put in for us whatever that was Tuesday or Wednesday, 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:41.240 and I just knew doesn't matter if it's gonna be 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.080 Joe Burrow or Flako, We're gonna be playing as long 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:44.760 as one of the Joe's, Like I said all week, 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:46.040 we'll be on this number. 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:48.840 So you know, Flacco set his shoulders good. We gotta 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.040 trust him and take this and play this matchup. 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:55.920 Detroit and Cincinnati. We're on it was it was always 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:58.600 going to be later in the day when we're talking 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:00.720 about the one we left out and the one we've 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:03.120 kept in. We know that these were always going to 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.040 be in no matter what, So we cannot walk away 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.360 from the idea that, oh, if only we had left 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:12.480 one of these out, because we're not another one. I 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:17.200 have felt strongly all week. Chad Choice Arizona is a 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:20.600 two and a half point underdog at home against the 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:24.080 Jacksonville Jaguars. I said on Tuesday it was Chad Choice 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.920 at two and a half, but I told everybody wait 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.160 for it to get to three. It got to three 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:33.920 and immediately got that back down to two and a half. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.800 Maybe I'm being irrational. I love the Cardinals here. I 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:42.080 feel like the Cardinals, which a Kobe Brissett, are a 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:46.079 different offense. It doesn't matter that Marvin Harrison Junior isn't playing. 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:50.760 He'll just throw Mike Wilson into one hundred and eighty 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:54.560 five yards. He'll find Trey McBride for ten receptions. I 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:59.240 think that this Jaguars team is winning on the guts 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:03.920 and guy and smarts of Liam Kohane, not anything to 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:06.800 do with Trevor Lawrence, who I think he's trying to 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:10.599 diminish the impact he can have. Negatively, Liam Cohne is 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:13.240 trying to diminish the impact Trevor Lawrence gonna have on 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.560 this game. And also the Cardinals might be getting back 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.080 two of their four defensive backs they have been missing 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:21.600 for the past few weeks when this defense has been 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:26.400 beginning to creator. So I love the Cardinals here, Simon. 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:28.720 I love him, and I don't think we can leave him. 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:32.880 Out, all right, I'll put him in for you. 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.840 I like the Cardinals. Why I bet it, Like you said, 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.240 it's it's a type of number. I would have put 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.360 a lot more if they weren't historically horrible defensively, this 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:42.160 Cardinals team. 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:45.480 But like we keep saying, it feels like a nice 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:45.880 spot for. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:50.160 This Cardinals team, a team that you know, as much 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:51.920 as people don't want to believe it, because like you 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.360 talked about, the Jags are six and four, They're not 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.080 that much better when you really break it all down 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.680 than the three and seven Cardinals right now. So it's 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.319 not shocking that this is a huge play by the 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.080 public dis Draguars team. But it is shocking to me 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:08.480 how even the money is. Like you said, the professionals 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:12.000 have really come in on this Cardinals side. So I 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:13.920 like it enough to put it in. You seem to 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:15.280 really love it, So I'm happy to put this as 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:15.880 one of work five. 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:20.680 All Right, our brass balls bet of the week was 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:24.920 New Orleans. I think we got it at minus two 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:30.160 against Atlanta. To me, this wasn't a bet on the 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:33.320 Saints or believing that they are a competitive team, or 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.160 the Tyler Shock is all of a sudden going to 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:40.960 be a serviceable NFL quarterback. It's really about betting against 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.880 Kirk Cousins, betting against the fact Drake London is out, 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:48.480 Drake London, who accounts for something like forty percent of 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:52.520 the team's passing yards. So to me, this is entirely 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:58.000 betting against Atlanta, not betting on New Orleans. How are 0:10:58.040 --> 0:10:59.719 we feeling today? 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:02.560 Yeah, I can't believe it. 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:07.360 Obviously, if you've been watching the number, A ton of 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.679 professional money's coming on this falcon side, because I got 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.920 to two and a half hard Rock here in Jersey's 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:14.520 down to one and a half on this game, so 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:16.960 it looks like that's where everyone's going. 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:20.960 They're moving this line back down and yeah, this. 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:24.160 Will be a line I love like you do, where 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:26.360 you know it's not ideal aves for we don't really 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.400 believe in this kids, shuck, but we believe in the 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.400 matchup for the Saints team, and we just want to 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.880 fade Kirk Cousins while we possibly can. So I'm just 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.720 looking at the splits right now. Again, every book is different. 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:40.559 A couple of bookmakers I've talked to you, they said 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:42.679 it was pretty split money. But just look at the 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:45.280 really public books right now. It's a lot of Falcons money. 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:48.400 So pretty interesting that the public is coming in so 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:49.640 heavy on this Falcons team. 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:53.200 Like we said, it's the Saints off. 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:54.760 Of bye week, you would think they'd be able to 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:56.720 prepare and play pretty well here in the spot against 0:11:56.720 --> 0:11:59.800 a Falcons team that's missing their best weapon in Drake Lynn. 0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:02.600 I'm I guess Bijon Robinson's their best weapon, but people 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:02.960 know what I mean. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:03.600 Drake London. 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.000 He's just been an absolute game changer for this team 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.960 and their whole offensive passing game runs through him. 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.160 So we already think Kirk Cousins terrible. 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.080 Now you're taking away his number one option. I just 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:16.920 I can't get behind this Atlanta team. So if it's 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.760 if it's our last one in, I'm cool with it. 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:21.200 They're like, we'll see how you feel about these other 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.760 games are gonna bring up here, But Saints right now 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.040 are minus one and a half in our contest. That's 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:27.960 what I bet them on. I like the Saints. It's 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.800 just I'm a little worried about taking shook here. I'm 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:31.520 not gonna lie. 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:36.080 Yeah, I am too, but at one and a half, 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:38.440 I kind of like the number, and I just have 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:42.400 no faith in the Falcons. Their lack of offensive ability 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.080 here worries me. And the one thing that I would 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.160 say about the Saints, who again, I have not been 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:50.600 a Saints backer all season that I think this will 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:53.640 be the first time I bet them. I do think 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:57.880 defensively they're competent against the run, and you mentioned Bijon. 0:12:57.960 --> 0:12:59.720 The one thing the Falcons we know they're gonna have 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.560 to do is rely on Bijon and the running game. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.680 So if there is a matchup that favors or gives 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:12.320 the Saints some credibility, it is against the runs. Right now, 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.760 we've locked in Detroit, We've locked in Cincinnati, we've locked 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:20.040 in Arizona. We like the Saints. There are a couple 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:21.840 of games that I think we still have to talk 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:26.880 about to get to our final one slash two Philadelphia 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:32.520 at Dallas. This thing is settled at three I've started 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.960 to come around on Dallas. I know you've been betting 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:40.079 into Dallas all week. I think that I don't want 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:43.760 to overstate Dallas's defense getting better off of one game 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:48.559 against the Las Vegas Raiders, but I do think they 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:50.760 have improved, and I think with Quinn Williams, they all 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.440 of a sudden are a lot more competent defensively and 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:58.880 getting guys back from the injured list. But I do 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.360 worry a lot about the Eagles offense right now and 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:03.760 not having Lane Johnson. 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.400 Yeah, and I honestly, I don't really trust this Cowboys 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:11.600 defense is really I think both of us are just 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.400 fading the Seagles offense or just something seems wrong with them. 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.800 Like you said, now without Lane, it's gonna be interesting 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.840 how they do because we've seen those trends like Jalen 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.400 Hurst has not been good without Lane Johnson on that field. 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.239 And you know, once again. 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:29.360 Another game where I try to tell people a really 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.040 smart group that came in very heavy taking position on 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.560 this Cowboys team, and I just knew this number was 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:36.240 gonna disappear, and it did, right The three and a 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:39.680 half has disappeared, So lucky enough for us, our contest 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.360 is three and a half. I was never gonna let 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.320 us not take this for our picks. It's just a 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.400 unique spot we have to play. And even if I 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:52.080 don't believe in this Cowboys defense, I just I think 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:54.880 there's something terribly wrong with this Eagles offense. And as 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:56.280 much as I want to believe, this is a right 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.960 spot for them, Like you said, Lane is out, the 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:01.200 Avante Smith is up in the air. 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.000 He traveled individually, separate from the team. 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:04.160 He's got a lot of stuff going on in his 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:07.440 personal life, so you know, there is a possibility DeVante 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:09.320 Smith might be a healthy scratch. And now that's even 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.600 more of a weakness to this team. So for the Eagles, 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:14.120 of course, this is a get right game. But I 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.880 just look at this Dallas team and you know, I 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.560 think offensively, we talked about it in the Week one 0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:22.200 I will always favor this Dallas team. And they're playing a 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:23.720 team the week number two corner, and that's what the 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:25.760 Eagles have. They have a week number two corner. So 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:29.200 you know, the Eagle strength or is that d line, 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:33.920 That linebacking corps. Downfield passing has been their weakness all season. 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:37.040 That seems like we're dak is really excelled, especially with Ferguson. 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:39.560 The tight ends really showed up this year. So I 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:41.520 just look at the matchup wise. I love it for 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:43.720 Dallas here and once again we love the numbers, so 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:46.120 I wouldn't be scared off while the Cowboys taking the three. 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:48.760 I've said it, I don't want people touching the Eagles 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.560 at all, money line or anything else. It's just I've 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:53.560 been warned myself, so I'm trying to warn people off 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.360 of it. It just seems like the pros of circlust 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:58.160 is a trap game and that this is a loss 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:00.480 on the Egle schedule, which I know you can't repre 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:02.080 head around it, but it's just like that Thursday night game. 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.120 I couldn't wrap my head around them telling me that 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.360 Houston was a trap game for Bills and they're gonna 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.480 lose that game out right. You gotta see it to believe, 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.400 and I feel it's the same thing here. Well, we'll 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:11.840 get the vibes early on here if this is a 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:15.560 good pick or not. And like I always say, the Eagles, 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:16.760 their offense is. 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:17.760 Gonna break through eventually. 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.200 But the way it is right now, just going back 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.000 and rewatching that game you can see the receivers don't 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:23.720 believe in the offense. 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:24.960 I don't think Hurts believes in it. 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:27.360 So I just think it's totally dysfunction right now on 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:29.680 this Eagles side and the Cowboys, you're getting a great 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:30.960 number anything three and above. 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:36.080 Yeah, uh again again again again, we're good on the 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:39.880 Cowboys at plus three, it's not a question for us. 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.560 So the Cowboys will be in our contest. That's four. 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:48.200 So now we're looking at the Saints as being the 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:54.280 fifth one in Do we talk about the Colts? Are 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:55.720 we talking about Carolina? 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:58.160 No matter what? 0:16:58.240 --> 0:16:59.040 Interesting to me. 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:01.600 It's got to be a road team because right now 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:06.400 we're sitting on five home teams, which isn't isn't it ideal? 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:10.159 And uh, you know we basically this week we have 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:11.600 a weird thing. We love all the home teams. I 0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:13.479 do love some road teams, but I don't know how 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:14.239 Coffee you feel him? 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:15.040 So two road dogs. 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:17.240 I really like his Pittsburgh plus two and a half 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:20.400 and the Colts plus three and a half. Now, this 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:24.520 Colts team, I get it. The hesitation, right, it's Daniel 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.400 Jones outdoors against a really good defense, and we've seen 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:31.480 him struggle in this exact spot. But they're getting their 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.240 number one cornerback, Like, that's a big deal to me. 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:36.159 The fact that Ward is coming back in this matchup. 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:38.080 They have him in sauce now in the field together. 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.480 That's the first time they've had this matchup all season. 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:42.359 Because I don't know if you remember, I think Ward 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:44.240 got a cushion in their warm ups right he ran 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.560 into a teammates. I don't know if you read about it, 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:50.000 it's terrifying, and it's like, again, I'm not trying to 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.879 get a whole ct ran, but he shouldn't be He 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:54.480 shouldn't be playing in this game. He said he did. 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.360 He didn't know who he was for a little bit. 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.000 For a day or two after it, It's like, what 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:00.879 are we doing here? But again, he's their best corner. 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:03.719 He is gonna play, he's back. We have to take 0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:05.840 advantage of that scheme. I think that's a huge matchup. 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:08.720 And this is another number where I thought, just like 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:12.040 the Cowboys, this would just be threes across the board. 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:15.480 But talk to a lot of pros, like we've talked about, 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.520 there's some trends that really favor this Chiefs team, and 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:20.480 they love this Chiefs team, and I think it's them 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:21.800 just chasing the ghost of the past. 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:24.359 It was like last week. I mean, we saw the Chiefs. 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:27.040 Get up to what four and a half before kickoff 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:30.280 against Denver. So it's like the pros keep being into 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.080 and they keep getting burned, and they keep saying, well, no. 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:32.760 It's this week. 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:35.600