Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On.
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Speaker 1: Wall Street tumbles on worries over Washington. Welcome to the
Speaker 1: fastest hour in politics, as economic policy and the FEDS
Speaker 1: fight against inflation spook the financial markets and leave the
Speaker 1: White House reeling today. Coming up a special conversation with
Speaker 1: Barry Riddles of Widolt's Wealth Management The Hole to Bloomberg's
Speaker 1: Masters of Business. I'm the complicated relationship between Wall Street
Speaker 1: and Washington will be here in just a moment later.
Speaker 1: Megan Green, Global Chief Economist at Kroll Senior Fellow at
Speaker 1: Harvard Kennedy School. On this conversation with a lot to
Speaker 1: unwind today are paneled Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Chanzano, joined
Speaker 1: by Amy Tarkanian, Republican strategist, former chair of the Nevada
Speaker 1: State GOP way to set the table for Barry Riddolts,
Speaker 1: who's with us right now. Barry, thank you for being here.
Speaker 1: We're typically talking with members of Congress or folks from
Speaker 1: the White House on this program, but we needed something
Speaker 1: a little bit different today. And I'm not going to
Speaker 1: ask you to say things are going to be all right,
Speaker 1: but okay, you can say that this level of fear
Speaker 1: though from Washington to where you are on Wall Street,
Speaker 1: calls calls for something a little bit different today. Somebody
Speaker 1: with a little bit of distance from our capital is
Speaker 1: our thoughts. So Barry welcome. Is this fear deserved? So
Speaker 1: it's a wonderful question, and it really depends on how
Speaker 1: your portfolio is allocated. When we look at the average
Speaker 1: draw down of the SMP five hundred in any given
Speaker 1: year over the past near century, it's been about four
Speaker 1: thirteen point six percent, which is pretty much where we
Speaker 1: were in the beginning of this week. It was a
Speaker 1: pretty average drawdown, but fear levels, sentiment levels are very,
Speaker 1: very negative. Fear levels are high. In fact, the American
Speaker 1: Association of Individual Investors not its highest fear levels as
Speaker 1: of Friday last week since the Great Financial Crisis since
Speaker 1: UH two thousand and nine. And the reason for that.
Speaker 1: It's not because the Dow was off ten percent, or
Speaker 1: the SMP five was off four or even the NASDACK
Speaker 1: was off right. These are all pretty run of the
Speaker 1: mill correction type numbers. When you look at the high flyers,
Speaker 1: when you look at the tech growth stocks, when you
Speaker 1: look at the pandemic related work from homestocks, everything from
Speaker 1: tele doc to Peloton to Netflix do and a bunch
Speaker 1: of other high flyers like tesla Um, they're down sixties
Speaker 1: sevent They've gotten really really shell act. And the folks
Speaker 1: who are relatively new to the market, who had nothing
Speaker 1: to do when sports were canceled and opened up robin
Speaker 1: hood accounts, they never seen anything like this. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: all that cash rushing into the market helped send prices
Speaker 1: higher and lo and behold. As things start to reopen
Speaker 1: and the world begins to return to normal. I certainly
Speaker 1: can't say everything is remotely normal across whether you're looking
Speaker 1: at the economy or the stock market. Things aren't quite
Speaker 1: back to pre pandemic levels. But you know, people are
Speaker 1: going out to movies, so they're not and they're going
Speaker 1: out to restaurants, and and they're going on vacation, and
Speaker 1: they're traveling. Uh, they're going to the gym. So so
Speaker 1: a lot of the darlings from UM they've all gotten
Speaker 1: really sure. That doesn't sound like uh, an economy headed
Speaker 1: for a recession when you talk about everybody breaking out
Speaker 1: and and getting back to life and spending and traveling.
Speaker 1: But even Janet Yellen sounded unsure about a soft landing
Speaker 1: this week. Where are you on that? UM? You know?
Speaker 1: To me, trying to predict how successful the FED will
Speaker 1: be is sort of a fool's Errand I will make
Speaker 1: two points that I think are useful for listeners. The
Speaker 1: first is that as much as everybody is wringing their
Speaker 1: hands over inflation, this kind of inflation that we've been
Speaker 1: experienced for the past year has not been caused by
Speaker 1: very low federal reserve rates. What have they been caused by? Well, first,
Speaker 1: you had a multi trillion dollar stimulus and the Cares
Speaker 1: Act one, then a second care Is Act Do, then
Speaker 1: a third Cares Act. We haven't even begun to really
Speaker 1: feel the impact of the infrastructure bill, so massive monetary stimulus.
Speaker 1: Compare that to the financial crisis. Almost none. It was.
Speaker 1: It was modest um. And and in both instances, the
Speaker 1: FED was very accommodating on the monetary side. So they
Speaker 1: stayed at zero way too long after O eight O nine,
Speaker 1: And they probably stayed at zero too long after the pandemic.
Speaker 1: And so what we've been seeing with this increase in
Speaker 1: rates is the FED saying, Okay, we're gonna get off zero.
Speaker 1: We're gonna remove all this excess accommodation. But I think
Speaker 1: deep down inside Jerome pal thinks, well, this isn't gonna
Speaker 1: do did Lee squad about inflation. It's not gonna get
Speaker 1: chips to cars any faster, it's not going to clear
Speaker 1: up the backlog of ships in Long Beach, and it's
Speaker 1: certainly not gonna do anything about energy prices so long
Speaker 1: as there's a shooting war in Ukraine. But let's let's
Speaker 1: get off zero and see if we can start moving
Speaker 1: things back to normal, back to neutral you're really driving
Speaker 1: in the direction I wanted to go here because you know,
Speaker 1: we're all about seeking blame here in Washington. Barry, and
Speaker 1: how much of this inflation was an unavoidable result of
Speaker 1: a pandemic is a matter of great debate here. It's
Speaker 1: something that I talked about with Republican Congressman French Hill.
Speaker 1: I want you to listen to what he said, and
Speaker 1: I would love for you to respond I do. I do,
Speaker 1: because when you combine that kind of fiscal stimulus concentrated
Speaker 1: in with the thipartisan COVID release money plus what he
Speaker 1: added in, you combine that with zero interest rates in
Speaker 1: a billion dollars upon buying monthly by the fit you
Speaker 1: don't have, you can't invent a more stimulative demand focused
Speaker 1: And this is while Larry Summers and others economists were warning,
Speaker 1: warning the Biden administration as they were playing with fire. Okay,
Speaker 1: So Barry with that in mind, so he says the
Speaker 1: COVID spending had a lot to do with creating this problem.
Speaker 1: How About if there was no relief spending, we just
Speaker 1: let people get COVID and go on with their lives,
Speaker 1: we still would have had a major shift in demand
Speaker 1: for goods, right, everybody clicking that, absolutely, we still would
Speaker 1: have had supply chain problems, so there still would have
Speaker 1: been inflation. Right, So so he's half right. I'll give
Speaker 1: him partial correctness. Um, so we're we're essentially a service
Speaker 1: driven economy. Services goods. During the pandemic, that practically inverted
Speaker 1: because you know, you're not traveling, you're not going to restaurants,
Speaker 1: you're not going to theater, you're staying home, you're just
Speaker 1: in the family room, you're buying TVs, blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: So so there's some of that, and and there's been
Speaker 1: a giant demand surge that took place. How much of
Speaker 1: that you want to blame on the fiscal stimulus UM
Speaker 1: is subject to debate some of it for sure, for sure.
Speaker 1: But where that line in the sand is is really
Speaker 1: challenging because remember we had suddenly we went from almost
Speaker 1: full employment to unemployment, and those folks are can't go
Speaker 1: to work, they're not getting a paycheck for for many
Speaker 1: of them, and weren't even getting unemployment. So if there
Speaker 1: wasn't UM a trillion dollars in in UM relief issued,
Speaker 1: what would have happened? You would have literally had a
Speaker 1: massive problem of people not paying the rent, not being
Speaker 1: able to buy right well, so so so was what
Speaker 1: was the final So the first Cares Act was March,
Speaker 1: and the second Cares Act was September, both under President Trump,
Speaker 1: and the third Cares Act was I think April or
Speaker 1: March under President Biden. And we're really just at the
Speaker 1: leading edge of this, the infrastructure bill that's was just
Speaker 1: starting to find its way out. So I can't really
Speaker 1: blame that, um. But you know, when you look at
Speaker 1: so it's a lot more complicated than just pointing at
Speaker 1: the White House. Obviously here this one or the last right, right,
Speaker 1: people have been blaming Biden and Romp and you really
Speaker 1: have to stop and say the alternative would have been
Speaker 1: a depression, right, And I'll take a little bit of inflation,
Speaker 1: which you know, I don't have to forecast inflation, but
Speaker 1: gun to the head, we're probably past peek inflation. By
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, we should see a four handle, maybe
Speaker 1: even a three handle on different right. And you know
Speaker 1: the other side of this inflation question, by the way,
Speaker 1: is what happens to the consumer berry somehow still spending
Speaker 1: despite the prices, And I talked about that yesterday with
Speaker 1: Head Bouche at the White House. Uh and and here's
Speaker 1: what she said. I'd love for you to to listen.
Speaker 1: In response, Well, you know, household balance sheets are in
Speaker 1: relatively good shape because families were kept hold during the crisis,
Speaker 1: and because we brought the unemployment rate down. So you know,
Speaker 1: those seven point nine million folks that have a job
Speaker 1: now that didn't win Joe Biden took office, those folks
Speaker 1: are all out there earning a living, and they're spending
Speaker 1: that money. They're doing what Americans do. We're going to
Speaker 1: get a job's report tomorrow, Berry, We're gonna be looking
Speaker 1: for wage inflation. I can only assume. But how long
Speaker 1: can this continue in our remaining couple of minutes here
Speaker 1: before people start thinking twice about spending and travel and
Speaker 1: the so called demand destruction actually begins. So so let's
Speaker 1: let's address two issues there. The first is I'm not
Speaker 1: all upset about wage inflation, especially at the low end,
Speaker 1: because we've had thirty years of lagging wages in the
Speaker 1: bottom quartile. This is what the president the economy, and
Speaker 1: in fact, we've enjoyed deflation because the bottom quarter really
Speaker 1: just they lagged inflation, they lagged productivity, They left lagged
Speaker 1: corporate profits. They lagged certainly lagged executives weet camp. So
Speaker 1: this was a big catchup. And I look at that
Speaker 1: more as a reset than an ongoing pushed to inflation.
Speaker 1: So we we've sort of stair stepped our way up here. However,
Speaker 1: belated like I've just got a minute to warn you,
Speaker 1: by the way, soon finish your thoughts. So that said,
Speaker 1: you know, I am never gonna bet against the American consumer.
Speaker 1: The countryside is littered with the bodies of economists who
Speaker 1: made that forecast and lived to rue the day. And
Speaker 1: now when I look at the state of American households
Speaker 1: is as good as it's ever been. Corporates balance sheets
Speaker 1: are fine. The cost of carrying the federal debt has
Speaker 1: ticked up a bit, but it's still historically low. It
Speaker 1: would have to take higher and more sustained inflation to
Speaker 1: set to to derail that. Now that said, who knows
Speaker 1: what happens with random things, the war in Ukraine, Yeah,
Speaker 1: and so many more layers. Berry Riddles, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: I haven't talked to Barry Riddles since I was down
Speaker 1: the dial at Potus on satellite radio. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for being with
Speaker 1: us on the fastest hour in politics. With the headline
Speaker 1: on the terminal stagflation, fear fuels big stock reversal as
Speaker 1: post Fed cheer ends. How do you like that we're
Speaker 1: talking stagflation now on top of it? And after our
Speaker 1: conversation with Barry Riddles, we continue with Megan Green, Global
Speaker 1: chief economist at Kroll, Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. Megan,
Speaker 1: this was quite a day, and as we normally spend
Speaker 1: time here rounding up voices inside the Beltway, we're taking
Speaker 1: a slightly different view on things and really looking at
Speaker 1: the policies in Washington impacting the action that we're seeing
Speaker 1: on Wall Street. And one of the biggest concerns right
Speaker 1: now is falling into a world of stagflation, which is
Speaker 1: probably not a great trade for the inflation we're feeling
Speaker 1: right now. Megan, what's your prognosis on this economy? Is
Speaker 1: the fear deserved? Yeah? So the risk is obviously risen um,
Speaker 1: particularly as as the Fed has gotten more hawkish. I
Speaker 1: think the risk of stagflation is much lower in the
Speaker 1: US than it is in Europe, for example, UM, where
Speaker 1: growth is fundamentally much lower and inflation is rising UM.
Speaker 1: In the US, you know, we had a negative GDP
Speaker 1: print for the first quarter UM, but that headline figure
Speaker 1: really masked a lot of underlying strength, particularly among consumers
Speaker 1: and business investment UM. So you know, final purchases UM
Speaker 1: domestically actually accelerated in the first quarter from the last
Speaker 1: quarter of last year. UM consumption was fairly strong, given
Speaker 1: omicron was was spreading in January and February of this year.
Speaker 1: Business investment was pretty strong, and so I'm actually not
Speaker 1: worried about going into a downturn anytime soon. I feel
Speaker 1: like this, this obsession with a recession really kicked off
Speaker 1: in the yield curve inverted for twenty three seconds, and
Speaker 1: I just don't give that much. Well, but historically, if
Speaker 1: the FED does not have a great record, U when
Speaker 1: when they're ending as tightening cycle here, I mean, do
Speaker 1: you have faith in the FED pulling off a soft landing?
Speaker 1: It sounds like you do. You know. Look, I think
Speaker 1: the FED is stuck with an impossible task. They're trying
Speaker 1: to thread and needle while wearing of amits blindfolded effectively. UM,
Speaker 1: So I don't think that the FED will manage to
Speaker 1: engineer a soft landing, mainly because the last three times
Speaker 1: the FED actually did pull off a soft landing, unemployment
Speaker 1: was much higher at the start of the rate hiking cycle.
Speaker 1: Now unemployment is incredibly low, and the best indicator of
Speaker 1: a recession that there is is an uptick in unemployment,
Speaker 1: and so I don't see the FED being able to
Speaker 1: hike aggressively without unemployment ticking up. That being said, there
Speaker 1: are eleven and a half open a million openings in
Speaker 1: the US economy. That's a lot. We're a long way
Speaker 1: off from seeing unemployment takeoff. I think, yeah, okay, what's
Speaker 1: your expectation for the jobs report tomorrow? Is it going
Speaker 1: to be a big number? And everyone freaks out because
Speaker 1: it also shows wages rising. So I think it will
Speaker 1: be a big number by historical um context, but but
Speaker 1: smaller number than used to seeing. So the consensus I
Speaker 1: think it's three and eighty thousand new jobs. That's a
Speaker 1: lot historically speaking, but it's less than we've become accustomed
Speaker 1: to seeing. I think, you know, more importantly, unemployment is
Speaker 1: probably going to take down even further, and crucially, I
Speaker 1: think the participation rate will take up as workers jump
Speaker 1: back into the labor force as the pandemic becomes more
Speaker 1: endemic and people burn through the financial cushions that they
Speaker 1: got some stimulus measures. Well, look, if the White House
Speaker 1: is getting blame and Democrats at large blame for policies
Speaker 1: that have brought us here to this inflationary cycle, would
Speaker 1: those policies also deserve credit for keeping the job market
Speaker 1: intact and getting those jobs back after COVID. Absolutely that,
Speaker 1: you know. I think it was those policies that have
Speaker 1: helped the labor market heel so quickly. Um. And you
Speaker 1: can see that if you compare the US labor market
Speaker 1: with Europe's labor market for example. UM. But also I
Speaker 1: think you know, we've closed our output gap. Growth is
Speaker 1: already back on a pre pandemic trend. That's not the
Speaker 1: case and the rest of the developed world, and that's
Speaker 1: partly thanks to the stimulus measures, um that we had
Speaker 1: after the pandemic hits. So it may be driving inflation higher,
Speaker 1: but it also has caused our economy to heal a
Speaker 1: whole lot faster. Well, So this is the problem we're
Speaker 1: in right. I mean, you can't win this argument. You
Speaker 1: either let the thing go off a cliff I guess
Speaker 1: after COVID, or let the job market do what it
Speaker 1: was going to do. There clearly would have been a
Speaker 1: downturn at that point and we would have not had inflation.
Speaker 1: Or you could have spent what appears to have been
Speaker 1: a lot of money. And the question is was it
Speaker 1: too much to keep consumers going, to keep people afloat
Speaker 1: until the pandemic receded. Uh, my goodness, I'm not sure
Speaker 1: most Americans would be able to choose between one or
Speaker 1: the other. Yeah, And I actually don't think it's that simple.
Speaker 1: I think there's been a lot of bad luck involved.
Speaker 1: So I don't actually think our inflation is entirely demand driven.
Speaker 1: I think a huge piece of it is supply side effects.
Speaker 1: And that includes, you know, China locking down because of
Speaker 1: their there's zero COVID policy, which we can do nothing about.
Speaker 1: It includes Russian invading Ukraine and causing supply chain disruptions
Speaker 1: which we could do nothing about. I really think the
Speaker 1: FED almost pulled this off at the end of last year,
Speaker 1: as we saw global supply chains starting to improve, we
Speaker 1: saw the labor market, the labor supply issues we have
Speaker 1: in the US also starting to abate. Um. But then
Speaker 1: at the beginning of this year we had omicron spread
Speaker 1: in China, we had Russian invade Ukraine, and that's just
Speaker 1: more supplied sid side shocks. I actually think inflation is
Speaker 1: still transitory, but transitory is gonna last a really long
Speaker 1: time given these consistent supply side shocks that we keep
Speaker 1: having that are that are elevating prices and driving inflation. Yeah,
Speaker 1: whereas inflation by the the end of this year, as
Speaker 1: we're walking into the midterms in November, quickly, Megan, do
Speaker 1: you see us back to four percent or or is
Speaker 1: that a dream right now? No? I do see us
Speaker 1: back at four percent. I don't see us lower than that, though,
Speaker 1: and four percent is still pretty high by the FED standards.
Speaker 1: Right there looking for average inflation of two percent, so
Speaker 1: above the Fed's target, but certainly lower than where we
Speaker 1: are now. Well sounding lately like four percent is the
Speaker 1: new two percent. I'm not sure about that, Megan, but
Speaker 1: thank you for the insights and good to speak Megan Green,
Speaker 1: global chief economist at Kroll, also a senior fellow at
Speaker 1: Harvard's Kennedy School. As we connect the dots between policy politics,
Speaker 1: and of course Wall Street Today will assemble the panel. Next,
Speaker 1: Genie is with us along with Amy Tarkanian coming up
Speaker 1: on Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg traders
Speaker 1: spooked by labor costs, productivity decline. As I read on
Speaker 1: the terminal, Wall Street staggers with vicious one point three
Speaker 1: trillion dollar stock sell off. How about that for a headline?
Speaker 1: And as we were discussing with Barry Riddolts and again
Speaker 1: with Megan, this is an interesting conversation that doesn't always
Speaker 1: go the same in Washington as it does on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: As Megan Green said the causes of inflation, and Barry echoed,
Speaker 1: this would have been in place with or without the
Speaker 1: stimulus spending, the Cares Act, and all the rest that
Speaker 1: follow COVID. The question is how much? And that's where
Speaker 1: we start with Genie Chanzano with us joint today by
Speaker 1: Amy Tarkanian. As I told you, Republican strategist and former
Speaker 1: chair of the Nevada State g o P. Of course
Speaker 1: Genie with us as part of the sound On family
Speaker 1: here as our democratic analysts. Is great to have you
Speaker 1: both here. Genie, I don't know if you have a
Speaker 1: real take on this, but this is we're really getting
Speaker 1: down to the matter here is the Biden administration is
Speaker 1: blamed and in some cases the Trump administration for fanning
Speaker 1: the flames of inflation because of the stimulus spending that
Speaker 1: helped us recover from COVID. I guess the question just
Speaker 1: comes down very simply to we spend too much. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And it was fascinating listening to Barry and Megan and
Speaker 1: your discussion with both of them, because I felt almost
Speaker 1: like maybe the sell off today would have been a
Speaker 1: little bit less dramatic had people listened to these conversations,
Speaker 1: because in both cases they kept saying the sky is
Speaker 1: not falling. You know, Barry was talking about normality as
Speaker 1: normal as you can talk about it in the context
Speaker 1: of recovering from a pandemic. Megan was talking about the
Speaker 1: underlying strength and not being terribly worried about about a
Speaker 1: recession in this obsession with the recession, which is a
Speaker 1: great phrase. So you know that all that said, though,
Speaker 1: that message is not enough to get out obviously onto
Speaker 1: Wall Street or in the minds of the American public.
Speaker 1: You look at the latest polls, something like in the
Speaker 1: latest CNN poll, almost of Americans say the news they're
Speaker 1: hearing about the economy is bad, and that pretty much
Speaker 1: explains why everybody is concerned and spoops essentially, what's your
Speaker 1: take on this? Amy, We do a lot of blame
Speaker 1: game here in Washington, d C. But it's starting to
Speaker 1: become a lot more complicated than pointing a finger at
Speaker 1: a single source, isn't it? Sure? Yes? And I think
Speaker 1: you know, for for years now, you know, both sides
Speaker 1: are are pretty guilty at overspending, um, and we need
Speaker 1: to be able to rein that in. And I know
Speaker 1: I hear Republicans, at least on on my side, um,
Speaker 1: you know, time and time again saying that we need
Speaker 1: to rein in the spending. But yeah, us we have
Speaker 1: been guilty as well. Um. Now for what we're dealing
Speaker 1: with currently, I think that this administration has only exacerbated
Speaker 1: the problem, and that dealing with such things such as
Speaker 1: stimulus such as the American Recovery uh you know Act,
Speaker 1: that the Cares Act, because we had all of this
Speaker 1: money that was just being pumped into the economy, um,
Speaker 1: all at once, it's it's not sustainable and so now
Speaker 1: we're all paying the price, and people are not going
Speaker 1: back to work like we had anticipated, or else are
Speaker 1: going back to the same jobs. Um, And we're not
Speaker 1: seeing the growth like we had anticipated. And I agree
Speaker 1: though with with the other with the other panelists that, UM,
Speaker 1: I think we need to maybe not given to the
Speaker 1: doom and gloom and into so much of the fear tactics.
Speaker 1: We spend too much, too much stimulus aemy. Yes, definitely
Speaker 1: too much stimulus. And that was a problem of this
Speaker 1: current administration. So it's a problem there and the Fed
Speaker 1: not starting fast enough? Is that? Is that your field? Oh?
Speaker 1: And then and then with Jerome Pale coming out the
Speaker 1: Federal chair UM the other day and then saying, okay,
Speaker 1: now we're going to be you know, a raising interest
Speaker 1: rates bye by half percent, and then we're going to
Speaker 1: be increasing again here in the near future. Yes, that's
Speaker 1: why the panic is setting in because he waited too late.
Speaker 1: It took seventy five off the table. Though, Jeanie, what
Speaker 1: what do people want? If you want to have an
Speaker 1: economy that's growing enough to get interest rates off a zero,
Speaker 1: they've got to do some kind of a move, right
Speaker 1: he I thought he eliminated our worst fears. Yeah, they
Speaker 1: do have to do a move um And I I
Speaker 1: also am sensitive to the fact that there is an
Speaker 1: argument to be made that both the administration and the
Speaker 1: Fed weren't listening to the discussion about or the calls
Speaker 1: about regarding inflation um and so you know, could they
Speaker 1: have moved faster? You know, we can look back and
Speaker 1: say yes, you know, in all likelihood, given where we
Speaker 1: are now, that would have assisted. But I think on
Speaker 1: this question of you know, whether Donald Trump or Joe
Speaker 1: Biden both are one is to blame. I do think
Speaker 1: we have to be cognizant that, you know, it had
Speaker 1: been a hundred years since the country had been in
Speaker 1: the pandemic, and we had a shutdown of the economy
Speaker 1: that was unprecedented in the modern era. The United States
Speaker 1: has recovered from that in much stronger shape than any
Speaker 1: of us predicted one or two years ago, and much
Speaker 1: better than many other parts of the world. So if
Speaker 1: there is some you know, some bright light here, it
Speaker 1: is those kinds. It is those kinds of comparisons. Can
Speaker 1: we do better, absolutely, but those are that That's the reality. So, Jamie,
Speaker 1: how important is this jobs are working to be tomorrow?
Speaker 1: For Joe Biden he's gonna come out and say something
Speaker 1: about this. There's forty five numbers in one of these reports,
Speaker 1: and some of them are going to be good, probably
Speaker 1: job growth, right payrolls. There's a lot of worry about
Speaker 1: some of the underlying data. Though. How does this play
Speaker 1: for the White House tomorrow? You know, I think he's
Speaker 1: got to come out and and it's gonna be tough
Speaker 1: for for Joe Biden because he keeps talking about these
Speaker 1: good job numbers and hopefully tomorrow is is fairly positive.
Speaker 1: But he's also got to talk about the fact that
Speaker 1: every time we go and spend money, we are seeing inflation,
Speaker 1: and he's got to keep on that message that the
Speaker 1: White House is doing all it can to address that pain.
Speaker 1: You know, we're looking at polling out from all kinds
Speaker 1: of areas that the economic numbers the American public are
Speaker 1: feeling are the worst that we've seen in more than
Speaker 1: a decade or two in terms of how they feel.
Speaker 1: And it's the feeling that impacts the politics. Jennie Chanzano
Speaker 1: and Amy Tarkanian our panel today on Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington as we head for another
Speaker 1: big story here I'm assuming it's going to be an
Speaker 1: interesting morning from Marty Walsh tomorrow. But on Capitol Hill
Speaker 1: today it was Roe v. Way. They were talking about
Speaker 1: there's going to be a vote next week in the
Speaker 1: Senate and some passionate remarks today from Senator kirston Jilabrand.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about this in the Strategy from the
Speaker 1: White House. Next, this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Another
Speaker 1: day with protesters out in front of the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: following the leak, the big leak this week of the
Speaker 1: draft opinion and what appears to be alluding decision by
Speaker 1: the Court to invalidate Roe v. Wade, Dueling protesters. As
Speaker 1: you can hear, this has been going on all day
Speaker 1: every day since this dropped on Monday. They have put
Speaker 1: the fence back up around the Capitol. The security is
Speaker 1: intense around the Supreme Court itself. As you might suspect,
Speaker 1: Democrats latch onto roll roll back with Senate control in balance.
Speaker 1: I read a great column from Laura Advent on the
Speaker 1: terminal with the prospects of this Supreme Court ruling resetting
Speaker 1: many election election messages, and of course it's got Democrats
Speaker 1: at work, certainly in the Senate. Chuck Schumer, the majority leader,
Speaker 1: says it will happen next week. This is about to change.
Speaker 1: Next week, the U. S. Senator is going to vote
Speaker 1: on legislation to codify a woman's right to seek an
Speaker 1: abortion into federal law. I intend to file culture on
Speaker 1: this vital legislation Monday, which would set up a vote
Speaker 1: for Wednesday. Republicans will have two choices. They can own
Speaker 1: the destruction of women's rights, where they can reverse course
Speaker 1: and work to prevent the damage. He was joined by
Speaker 1: several other Democrats, including Senator at Kirston Childebrand of New York,
Speaker 1: who got to the podium and spoke passionately about not
Speaker 1: just this impending ruling, but the lying, as she calls it,
Speaker 1: and Schumer called it that as well. The Leader called
Speaker 1: it that on the floor, the lying that the justices
Speaker 1: when they were nominees conducted in front of their confirmation hearings.
Speaker 1: Listen to Kyrsten Gillibrand, and we never had fraudulent testimony,
Speaker 1: and the Supreme Court standing behind the justices commit fraud
Speaker 1: during hearings. So if you want to talk about process.
Speaker 1: I would focus on that process. She got to the
Speaker 1: podium and really got into this. Everybody else backed off
Speaker 1: as Senator Gillibrand made the point, it is an outrage
Speaker 1: that we have five justices on the Supreme Court who lied,
Speaker 1: lied in their confirmation hearings in order to be confirmed.
Speaker 1: It is an outrage that in America today that our
Speaker 1: judicial system is so corrupted and so politicized and no
Speaker 1: longer representative the will of the people. Five justice is
Speaker 1: said they respect President precedents. Five said that Roe v.
Speaker 1: Wade was established precedents. Five said they would never undermine
Speaker 1: established precedent. It is unconscionable what this decision will do
Speaker 1: to the American people. But does it matter? First of all,
Speaker 1: did they lie? And does it matter if they did?
Speaker 1: I think the conversations we've had over the last few
Speaker 1: days suggest that, well it doesn't. They're not going to
Speaker 1: be held in contempt of Congress. This is what we
Speaker 1: have here now, And so we reassembled the panel. Genie,
Speaker 1: of course, back with us our democratic analysts and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributor Genie Chanzano along side Amy Tarkanian. Today, Republican
Speaker 1: strategist and former chair of the Nevada State GOP Genie.
Speaker 1: That gives you a sense of what the debates are
Speaker 1: going to sound like when we get into the general election,
Speaker 1: doesn't it. It does, And we are already seeing this
Speaker 1: on the ground, as you mentioned, particularly at the level
Speaker 1: of the state gubernatorial races, at the attorney generals, because
Speaker 1: of course, if this decision and this draft becomes a decision,
Speaker 1: that is where the decision will lie at the state level.
Speaker 1: So we see gubernatorial candidates, a g candidates addressing it.
Speaker 1: We also see congressional candidates addressing it. We saw a
Speaker 1: candidate for the for the Wisconsin state who Senate who
Speaker 1: you know Wisconsin of course has trigger laws. We already
Speaker 1: saw her come out and attack Ron Johnson on abortion.
Speaker 1: Ads are starting to come out and so many Democrats
Speaker 1: saying that this is going to be the big issue
Speaker 1: of the mid term. But of course the flip side
Speaker 1: of that is others who say, nope, it is always
Speaker 1: the economy, always inflation that remains number one. And that's
Speaker 1: what I think. We're going to have to wait and
Speaker 1: see where voters land on this. Well, that's absolutely right. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's certainly going to be a motivator, Amy, I think
Speaker 1: that we can agree. I don't know if it motivates
Speaker 1: Democrats more than Republicans, but that's the conventional wisdom. Uh.
Speaker 1: Right now, I wonder what you think of of the
Speaker 1: the the different ways that the parties have responded to this,
Speaker 1: though Republicans really have not been weighing in on the
Speaker 1: substance of what this ruling appears to be. They've been
Speaker 1: talking about the leaks, right, this is we're going to
Speaker 1: get to the bottom of this, an attack on the
Speaker 1: independence of the court. Chuck Schumer was asked about that today.
Speaker 1: Listen to his response, the Supreme Courts, the Supreme Courts
Speaker 1: looking into that. But to compare a leak to taking
Speaker 1: away the rights of over a hundred million women and
Speaker 1: saying the league is more important, give me a break.
Speaker 1: Forget it. They mean, it's the league more important? Well,
Speaker 1: you know, I just I don't mean this to sound callous,
Speaker 1: but but it is slightly more important. And because this
Speaker 1: sets the precedent than for any anything else in the
Speaker 1: future that you know, other Supreme Court justices may want
Speaker 1: to overturn or make some other decisions on UM. And
Speaker 1: I think that it is incredibly UM concerning that there
Speaker 1: as a leak. Now, whether if the leak was on
Speaker 1: this topic or any other topic, I I do believe
Speaker 1: that this is not only ethically and morally wrong, but
Speaker 1: it is it done intentionally and it will do uh
Speaker 1: forever damage in our faith in the system. Unfortunately in
Speaker 1: the fact that this was leaked, Yes, but then I
Speaker 1: think it's even worse now if you want to go
Speaker 1: ahead and get into the actual topic of abortion and
Speaker 1: dealing with the unborn and dealing with women having to
Speaker 1: make these excruciating choices. Uh, you know this, This is
Speaker 1: this is an area where I think we need to
Speaker 1: be incredibly sensitive, whether if you're pro life or pro choice,
Speaker 1: And the fact that this leaked out the way that
Speaker 1: it did is just so wrong. And I hope that
Speaker 1: they find the person that did this, and I think
Speaker 1: everyone agrees on that. What what about the looming debate
Speaker 1: here and the way this is going to influence the
Speaker 1: messaging on the campaign trail going into the midterms? Amy,
Speaker 1: is this going to be the single shoe that brings
Speaker 1: people to the polls or Republicans going to have an argument? Um?
Speaker 1: I think their argument is going to rally their base
Speaker 1: to some extent. However, in the end, your pocketbook is
Speaker 1: not Democrat or Republican. If you can't pay your bills,
Speaker 1: if you can't put gas in your tank, if you
Speaker 1: can't feed your children and clothe your children, then you
Speaker 1: have a lot of other problems than what what another
Speaker 1: female may or may not decide to do with their
Speaker 1: body at this moment. And I know that sounds callous,
Speaker 1: but it is true. Well, I have to be honest.
Speaker 1: I think if if anyone suggesting the leak is is
Speaker 1: worse than the ruling, and I realized that you're a
Speaker 1: Republican strategist and you have convictions on this, amy may
Speaker 1: also sound callous to some of our listeners. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: if if you really want to, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: you could probably pick a poll, any poll at this point.
Speaker 1: I've seen a half dozen of them where no matter
Speaker 1: your party affiliation, I would say that anywhere from the
Speaker 1: low fifties to the high sixty percentile of folks who
Speaker 1: actually believe that there should be abortion available up until
Speaker 1: fifteen weeks now. The argument is, you know, should we
Speaker 1: have that just across the board all fifty states or
Speaker 1: just take it back to the states. And that's exactly
Speaker 1: what they're doing. Because this ruling UM in ninete A
Speaker 1: lot of people will tell you that it was vague
Speaker 1: and that this was legislation from the bench. So that's
Speaker 1: why we're dealing with it the way that we are today. Well,
Speaker 1: that's true. But when when Gorsuch UH and Kavanaugh in particular,
Speaker 1: we're in their own testimony and their confirmation hearings, they
Speaker 1: also made clear that this was the settled law of
Speaker 1: the land, that this was precedent. Does it bother you
Speaker 1: that that this is uh, that this is sounding a
Speaker 1: lot different now than it did when they were speaking
Speaker 1: to lawmakers about getting confirmed. Well, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: recall exactly what what the term if they did, well,
Speaker 1: if they did say those exact words and they were
Speaker 1: going to stick to it, then yes, of course that's
Speaker 1: concerning UM. If UH, if they were following like what
Speaker 1: I just um I told you about others insinuating that
Speaker 1: this from the get go, this ruling from the get
Speaker 1: go was legislating from the bench rather than interpreting UH,
Speaker 1: then yes we have a problem. And maybe and maybe
Speaker 1: that's why they're making the choice they are now to
Speaker 1: this day. But I think we also need to be
Speaker 1: careful because it's not misinformation which is accidental. This is
Speaker 1: disinformation where the left is actually pushing by trying to
Speaker 1: damage the right and saying that they're taking away their
Speaker 1: rights and their freedoms and that abortion will be gone completely,
Speaker 1: which is not the case. It's just going back to
Speaker 1: the people of the state, understood, But it will be
Speaker 1: gone for for for women who aren't don't have the
Speaker 1: money or resource to travel, which is which is an
Speaker 1: issue here, Genie. We've seen actually some companies start to
Speaker 1: step up now, some major Wall Street firms are considering
Speaker 1: this idea of giving travel allowances uh to workers for
Speaker 1: this and Senator Marco Rubio is putting fourth legislation that
Speaker 1: would prevent them from deducting that, making that a tax deduction.
Speaker 1: This is really coming down uh to splitting hairs here
Speaker 1: into some sort of micro legislation. Genie, it is and
Speaker 1: you know, Gutmacher said, you know about twenty two to
Speaker 1: twenty six states, Well, likely when if this decision comes through,
Speaker 1: have a ban on abortion, um many of those in
Speaker 1: those trigger laws, and of course that does raise questions
Speaker 1: about are we going to be seeing you know, women
Speaker 1: uh restricted from traveling for instance, or people restricted from
Speaker 1: helping women to travel to another state to seek an abortion.
Speaker 1: So you know, those are all things that we're going
Speaker 1: to be dealing with, and you know, we also just
Speaker 1: want to be clear when we're talking about this issue
Speaker 1: that you know, we this has been over fifty years,
Speaker 1: as we all know, so we don't really know what
Speaker 1: the impact of this is going to in a political
Speaker 1: sense as we look at the mid term. That bill
Speaker 1: is going to pass next week without Susan Collins Jenny, No,
Speaker 1: the bill likely won't pass. But what it does do
Speaker 1: importantly is it does tell us who stands where and
Speaker 1: allows the American people to hold people accountable. Senators will
Speaker 1: be counted next week. We'll talk about it here. You
Speaker 1: know that on the fastest hour in politics, this is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg