1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: If you're a senior citizen right now, every single bill 3 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: you face has gone the surgeon. Prices of crude oil 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: and other commodities that resulted from Russia's invasion of Ukraine 5 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: is creating additional upward pressure. Bloomberg Sound On, Politics, Policy 6 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: and Perspective from DC's top name. The President believes billionaires 7 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: should pay their fair share so we can invest in 8 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: our economic future and cut the deficit. It is incredibly 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: important for them to point out the hypocrisy on the 10 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: other side. Republicans care about the death that don't couch 11 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: yourself out. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 12 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: Wall Street tumbles on worries over Washington. Welcome to the 13 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: fastest hour in politics, as economic policy and the FEDS 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: fight against inflation spook the financial markets and leave the 15 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: White House reeling today. Coming up a special conversation with 16 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: Barry Riddles of Widolt's Wealth Management The Hole to Bloomberg's 17 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: Masters of Business. I'm the complicated relationship between Wall Street 18 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: and Washington will be here in just a moment later. 19 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 1: Megan Green, Global Chief Economist at Kroll Senior Fellow at 20 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: Harvard Kennedy School. On this conversation with a lot to 21 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: unwind today are paneled Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Chanzano, joined 22 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: by Amy Tarkanian, Republican strategist, former chair of the Nevada 23 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: State GOP way to set the table for Barry Riddolts, 24 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: who's with us right now. Barry, thank you for being here. 25 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: We're typically talking with members of Congress or folks from 26 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 1: the White House on this program, but we needed something 27 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: a little bit different today. And I'm not going to 28 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: ask you to say things are going to be all right, 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: but okay, you can say that this level of fear 30 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 1: though from Washington to where you are on Wall Street, 31 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: calls calls for something a little bit different today. Somebody 32 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: with a little bit of distance from our capital is 33 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: our thoughts. So Barry welcome. Is this fear deserved? So 34 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: it's a wonderful question, and it really depends on how 35 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: your portfolio is allocated. When we look at the average 36 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,359 Speaker 1: draw down of the SMP five hundred in any given 37 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 1: year over the past near century, it's been about four 38 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 1: thirteen point six percent, which is pretty much where we 39 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: were in the beginning of this week. It was a 40 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: pretty average drawdown, but fear levels, sentiment levels are very, 41 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: very negative. Fear levels are high. In fact, the American 42 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: Association of Individual Investors not its highest fear levels as 43 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: of Friday last week since the Great Financial Crisis since 44 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: UH two thousand and nine. And the reason for that. 45 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: It's not because the Dow was off ten percent, or 46 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,959 Speaker 1: the SMP five was off four or even the NASDACK 47 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: was off right. These are all pretty run of the 48 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: mill correction type numbers. When you look at the high flyers, 49 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,040 Speaker 1: when you look at the tech growth stocks, when you 50 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: look at the pandemic related work from homestocks, everything from 51 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: tele doc to Peloton to Netflix do and a bunch 52 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: of other high flyers like tesla Um, they're down sixties 53 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: sevent They've gotten really really shell act. And the folks 54 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: who are relatively new to the market, who had nothing 55 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: to do when sports were canceled and opened up robin 56 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: hood accounts, they never seen anything like this. Well, you know, 57 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: all that cash rushing into the market helped send prices 58 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: higher and lo and behold. As things start to reopen 59 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: and the world begins to return to normal. I certainly 60 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: can't say everything is remotely normal across whether you're looking 61 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: at the economy or the stock market. Things aren't quite 62 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: back to pre pandemic levels. But you know, people are 63 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: going out to movies, so they're not and they're going 64 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: out to restaurants, and and they're going on vacation, and 65 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: they're traveling. Uh, they're going to the gym. So so 66 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: a lot of the darlings from UM they've all gotten 67 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: really sure. That doesn't sound like uh, an economy headed 68 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: for a recession when you talk about everybody breaking out 69 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: and and getting back to life and spending and traveling. 70 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 1: But even Janet Yellen sounded unsure about a soft landing 71 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: this week. Where are you on that? UM? You know? 72 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: To me, trying to predict how successful the FED will 73 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: be is sort of a fool's Errand I will make 74 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: two points that I think are useful for listeners. The 75 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: first is that as much as everybody is wringing their 76 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 1: hands over inflation, this kind of inflation that we've been 77 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: experienced for the past year has not been caused by 78 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: very low federal reserve rates. What have they been caused by? Well, first, 79 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: you had a multi trillion dollar stimulus and the Cares 80 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: Act one, then a second care Is Act Do, then 81 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: a third Cares Act. We haven't even begun to really 82 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: feel the impact of the infrastructure bill, so massive monetary stimulus. 83 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: Compare that to the financial crisis. Almost none. It was. 84 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: It was modest um. And and in both instances, the 85 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: FED was very accommodating on the monetary side. So they 86 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: stayed at zero way too long after O eight O nine, 87 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: And they probably stayed at zero too long after the pandemic. 88 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 1: And so what we've been seeing with this increase in 89 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: rates is the FED saying, Okay, we're gonna get off zero. 90 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: We're gonna remove all this excess accommodation. But I think 91 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: deep down inside Jerome pal thinks, well, this isn't gonna 92 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: do did Lee squad about inflation. It's not gonna get 93 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,559 Speaker 1: chips to cars any faster, it's not going to clear 94 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: up the backlog of ships in Long Beach, and it's 95 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: certainly not gonna do anything about energy prices so long 96 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: as there's a shooting war in Ukraine. But let's let's 97 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: get off zero and see if we can start moving 98 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: things back to normal, back to neutral you're really driving 99 00:05:58,040 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: in the direction I wanted to go here because you know, 100 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: we're all about seeking blame here in Washington. Barry, and 101 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: how much of this inflation was an unavoidable result of 102 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: a pandemic is a matter of great debate here. It's 103 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: something that I talked about with Republican Congressman French Hill. 104 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: I want you to listen to what he said, and 105 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: I would love for you to respond I do. I do, 106 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: because when you combine that kind of fiscal stimulus concentrated 107 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: in with the thipartisan COVID release money plus what he 108 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: added in, you combine that with zero interest rates in 109 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: a billion dollars upon buying monthly by the fit you 110 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 1: don't have, you can't invent a more stimulative demand focused 111 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: And this is while Larry Summers and others economists were warning, 112 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: warning the Biden administration as they were playing with fire. Okay, 113 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: So Barry with that in mind, so he says the 114 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,559 Speaker 1: COVID spending had a lot to do with creating this problem. 115 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 1: How About if there was no relief spending, we just 116 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: let people get COVID and go on with their lives, 117 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: we still would have had a major shift in demand 118 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: for goods, right, everybody clicking that, absolutely, we still would 119 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: have had supply chain problems, so there still would have 120 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: been inflation. Right, So so he's half right. I'll give 121 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: him partial correctness. Um, so we're we're essentially a service 122 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: driven economy. Services goods. During the pandemic, that practically inverted 123 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: because you know, you're not traveling, you're not going to restaurants, 124 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: you're not going to theater, you're staying home, you're just 125 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: in the family room, you're buying TVs, blah blah blah. 126 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: So so there's some of that, and and there's been 127 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: a giant demand surge that took place. How much of 128 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: that you want to blame on the fiscal stimulus UM 129 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: is subject to debate some of it for sure, for sure. 130 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: But where that line in the sand is is really 131 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: challenging because remember we had suddenly we went from almost 132 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: full employment to unemployment, and those folks are can't go 133 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: to work, they're not getting a paycheck for for many 134 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: of them, and weren't even getting unemployment. So if there 135 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: wasn't UM a trillion dollars in in UM relief issued, 136 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: what would have happened? You would have literally had a 137 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: massive problem of people not paying the rent, not being 138 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: able to buy right well, so so so was what 139 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: was the final So the first Cares Act was March, 140 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: and the second Cares Act was September, both under President Trump, 141 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: and the third Cares Act was I think April or 142 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: March under President Biden. And we're really just at the 143 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: leading edge of this, the infrastructure bill that's was just 144 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: starting to find its way out. So I can't really 145 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: blame that, um. But you know, when you look at 146 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: so it's a lot more complicated than just pointing at 147 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 1: the White House. Obviously here this one or the last right, right, 148 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: people have been blaming Biden and Romp and you really 149 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 1: have to stop and say the alternative would have been 150 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: a depression, right, And I'll take a little bit of inflation, 151 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: which you know, I don't have to forecast inflation, but 152 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: gun to the head, we're probably past peek inflation. By 153 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, we should see a four handle, maybe 154 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: even a three handle on different right. And you know 155 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: the other side of this inflation question, by the way, 156 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: is what happens to the consumer berry somehow still spending 157 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: despite the prices, And I talked about that yesterday with 158 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: Head Bouche at the White House. Uh and and here's 159 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: what she said. I'd love for you to to listen. 160 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: In response, Well, you know, household balance sheets are in 161 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: relatively good shape because families were kept hold during the crisis, 162 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: and because we brought the unemployment rate down. So you know, 163 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: those seven point nine million folks that have a job 164 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 1: now that didn't win Joe Biden took office, those folks 165 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: are all out there earning a living, and they're spending 166 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: that money. They're doing what Americans do. We're going to 167 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: get a job's report tomorrow, Berry, We're gonna be looking 168 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: for wage inflation. I can only assume. But how long 169 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: can this continue in our remaining couple of minutes here 170 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: before people start thinking twice about spending and travel and 171 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: the so called demand destruction actually begins. So so let's 172 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: let's address two issues there. The first is I'm not 173 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 1: all upset about wage inflation, especially at the low end, 174 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: because we've had thirty years of lagging wages in the 175 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: bottom quartile. This is what the president the economy, and 176 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: in fact, we've enjoyed deflation because the bottom quarter really 177 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: just they lagged inflation, they lagged productivity, They left lagged 178 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: corporate profits. They lagged certainly lagged executives weet camp. So 179 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: this was a big catchup. And I look at that 180 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: more as a reset than an ongoing pushed to inflation. 181 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: So we we've sort of stair stepped our way up here. However, 182 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 1: belated like I've just got a minute to warn you, 183 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: by the way, soon finish your thoughts. So that said, 184 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: you know, I am never gonna bet against the American consumer. 185 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 1: The countryside is littered with the bodies of economists who 186 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 1: made that forecast and lived to rue the day. And 187 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: now when I look at the state of American households 188 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: is as good as it's ever been. Corporates balance sheets 189 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: are fine. The cost of carrying the federal debt has 190 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: ticked up a bit, but it's still historically low. It 191 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: would have to take higher and more sustained inflation to 192 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: set to to derail that. Now that said, who knows 193 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 1: what happens with random things, the war in Ukraine, Yeah, 194 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: and so many more layers. Berry Riddles, thank you so much. 195 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: I haven't talked to Barry Riddles since I was down 196 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: the dial at Potus on satellite radio. I'm Joe Matthew 197 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound on 198 00:11:53,840 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for being with 199 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 1: us on the fastest hour in politics. With the headline 200 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: on the terminal stagflation, fear fuels big stock reversal as 201 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: post Fed cheer ends. How do you like that we're 202 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: talking stagflation now on top of it? And after our 203 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 1: conversation with Barry Riddles, we continue with Megan Green, Global 204 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 1: chief economist at Kroll, Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. Megan, 205 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: this was quite a day, and as we normally spend 206 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: time here rounding up voices inside the Beltway, we're taking 207 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: a slightly different view on things and really looking at 208 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 1: the policies in Washington impacting the action that we're seeing 209 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: on Wall Street. And one of the biggest concerns right 210 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: now is falling into a world of stagflation, which is 211 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: probably not a great trade for the inflation we're feeling 212 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: right now. Megan, what's your prognosis on this economy? Is 213 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: the fear deserved? Yeah? So the risk is obviously risen um, 214 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: particularly as as the Fed has gotten more hawkish. I 215 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: think the risk of stagflation is much lower in the 216 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 1: US than it is in Europe, for example, UM, where 217 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: growth is fundamentally much lower and inflation is rising UM. 218 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: In the US, you know, we had a negative GDP 219 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: print for the first quarter UM, but that headline figure 220 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: really masked a lot of underlying strength, particularly among consumers 221 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: and business investment UM. So you know, final purchases UM 222 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 1: domestically actually accelerated in the first quarter from the last 223 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: quarter of last year. UM consumption was fairly strong, given 224 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: omicron was was spreading in January and February of this year. 225 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: Business investment was pretty strong, and so I'm actually not 226 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: worried about going into a downturn anytime soon. I feel 227 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: like this, this obsession with a recession really kicked off 228 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: in the yield curve inverted for twenty three seconds, and 229 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: I just don't give that much. Well, but historically, if 230 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: the FED does not have a great record, U when 231 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: when they're ending as tightening cycle here, I mean, do 232 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 1: you have faith in the FED pulling off a soft landing? 233 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: It sounds like you do. You know. Look, I think 234 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: the FED is stuck with an impossible task. They're trying 235 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: to thread and needle while wearing of amits blindfolded effectively. UM, 236 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: So I don't think that the FED will manage to 237 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: engineer a soft landing, mainly because the last three times 238 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 1: the FED actually did pull off a soft landing, unemployment 239 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: was much higher at the start of the rate hiking cycle. 240 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: Now unemployment is incredibly low, and the best indicator of 241 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: a recession that there is is an uptick in unemployment, 242 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: and so I don't see the FED being able to 243 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: hike aggressively without unemployment ticking up. That being said, there 244 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: are eleven and a half open a million openings in 245 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: the US economy. That's a lot. We're a long way 246 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: off from seeing unemployment takeoff. I think, yeah, okay, what's 247 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: your expectation for the jobs report tomorrow? Is it going 248 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: to be a big number? And everyone freaks out because 249 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: it also shows wages rising. So I think it will 250 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: be a big number by historical um context, but but 251 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: smaller number than used to seeing. So the consensus I 252 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: think it's three and eighty thousand new jobs. That's a 253 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: lot historically speaking, but it's less than we've become accustomed 254 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: to seeing. I think, you know, more importantly, unemployment is 255 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: probably going to take down even further, and crucially, I 256 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: think the participation rate will take up as workers jump 257 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 1: back into the labor force as the pandemic becomes more 258 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: endemic and people burn through the financial cushions that they 259 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: got some stimulus measures. Well, look, if the White House 260 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: is getting blame and Democrats at large blame for policies 261 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: that have brought us here to this inflationary cycle, would 262 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: those policies also deserve credit for keeping the job market 263 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: intact and getting those jobs back after COVID. Absolutely that, 264 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: you know. I think it was those policies that have 265 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: helped the labor market heel so quickly. Um. And you 266 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: can see that if you compare the US labor market 267 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: with Europe's labor market for example. UM. But also I 268 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: think you know, we've closed our output gap. Growth is 269 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: already back on a pre pandemic trend. That's not the 270 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: case and the rest of the developed world, and that's 271 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: partly thanks to the stimulus measures, um that we had 272 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: after the pandemic hits. So it may be driving inflation higher, 273 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: but it also has caused our economy to heal a 274 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: whole lot faster. Well, So this is the problem we're 275 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 1: in right. I mean, you can't win this argument. You 276 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: either let the thing go off a cliff I guess 277 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: after COVID, or let the job market do what it 278 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: was going to do. There clearly would have been a 279 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,359 Speaker 1: downturn at that point and we would have not had inflation. 280 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: Or you could have spent what appears to have been 281 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: a lot of money. And the question is was it 282 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 1: too much to keep consumers going, to keep people afloat 283 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: until the pandemic receded. Uh, my goodness, I'm not sure 284 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: most Americans would be able to choose between one or 285 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: the other. Yeah, And I actually don't think it's that simple. 286 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: I think there's been a lot of bad luck involved. 287 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: So I don't actually think our inflation is entirely demand driven. 288 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: I think a huge piece of it is supply side effects. 289 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: And that includes, you know, China locking down because of 290 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: their there's zero COVID policy, which we can do nothing about. 291 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: It includes Russian invading Ukraine and causing supply chain disruptions 292 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: which we could do nothing about. I really think the 293 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: FED almost pulled this off at the end of last year, 294 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: as we saw global supply chains starting to improve, we 295 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: saw the labor market, the labor supply issues we have 296 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: in the US also starting to abate. Um. But then 297 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: at the beginning of this year we had omicron spread 298 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: in China, we had Russian invade Ukraine, and that's just 299 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: more supplied sid side shocks. I actually think inflation is 300 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: still transitory, but transitory is gonna last a really long 301 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: time given these consistent supply side shocks that we keep 302 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: having that are that are elevating prices and driving inflation. Yeah, 303 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 1: whereas inflation by the the end of this year, as 304 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 1: we're walking into the midterms in November, quickly, Megan, do 305 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: you see us back to four percent or or is 306 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: that a dream right now? No? I do see us 307 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: back at four percent. I don't see us lower than that, though, 308 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: and four percent is still pretty high by the FED standards. 309 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: Right there looking for average inflation of two percent, so 310 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: above the Fed's target, but certainly lower than where we 311 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: are now. Well sounding lately like four percent is the 312 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,199 Speaker 1: new two percent. I'm not sure about that, Megan, but 313 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 1: thank you for the insights and good to speak Megan Green, 314 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,959 Speaker 1: global chief economist at Kroll, also a senior fellow at 315 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: Harvard's Kennedy School. As we connect the dots between policy politics, 316 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: and of course Wall Street Today will assemble the panel. Next, 317 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: Genie is with us along with Amy Tarkanian coming up 318 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 1: on Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg traders 319 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: spooked by labor costs, productivity decline. As I read on 320 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: the terminal, Wall Street staggers with vicious one point three 321 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: trillion dollar stock sell off. How about that for a headline? 322 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 1: And as we were discussing with Barry Riddolts and again 323 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 1: with Megan, this is an interesting conversation that doesn't always 324 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 1: go the same in Washington as it does on Wall Street. 325 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 1: As Megan Green said the causes of inflation, and Barry echoed, 326 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 1: this would have been in place with or without the 327 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: stimulus spending, the Cares Act, and all the rest that 328 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,880 Speaker 1: follow COVID. The question is how much? And that's where 329 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: we start with Genie Chanzano with us joint today by 330 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: Amy Tarkanian. As I told you, Republican strategist and former 331 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: chair of the Nevada State g o P. Of course 332 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: Genie with us as part of the sound On family 333 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 1: here as our democratic analysts. Is great to have you 334 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: both here. Genie, I don't know if you have a 335 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: real take on this, but this is we're really getting 336 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: down to the matter here is the Biden administration is 337 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: blamed and in some cases the Trump administration for fanning 338 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: the flames of inflation because of the stimulus spending that 339 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 1: helped us recover from COVID. I guess the question just 340 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: comes down very simply to we spend too much. Yeah, 341 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: And it was fascinating listening to Barry and Megan and 342 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,719 Speaker 1: your discussion with both of them, because I felt almost 343 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 1: like maybe the sell off today would have been a 344 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: little bit less dramatic had people listened to these conversations, 345 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 1: because in both cases they kept saying the sky is 346 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: not falling. You know, Barry was talking about normality as 347 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 1: normal as you can talk about it in the context 348 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: of recovering from a pandemic. Megan was talking about the 349 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: underlying strength and not being terribly worried about about a 350 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: recession in this obsession with the recession, which is a 351 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 1: great phrase. So you know that all that said, though, 352 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: that message is not enough to get out obviously onto 353 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,719 Speaker 1: Wall Street or in the minds of the American public. 354 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: You look at the latest polls, something like in the 355 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 1: latest CNN poll, almost of Americans say the news they're 356 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: hearing about the economy is bad, and that pretty much 357 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: explains why everybody is concerned and spoops essentially, what's your 358 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: take on this? Amy, We do a lot of blame 359 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: game here in Washington, d C. But it's starting to 360 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: become a lot more complicated than pointing a finger at 361 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 1: a single source, isn't it? Sure? Yes? And I think 362 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 1: you know, for for years now, you know, both sides 363 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: are are pretty guilty at overspending, um, and we need 364 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: to be able to rein that in. And I know 365 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 1: I hear Republicans, at least on on my side, um, 366 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: you know, time and time again saying that we need 367 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 1: to rein in the spending. But yeah, us we have 368 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: been guilty as well. Um. Now for what we're dealing 369 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: with currently, I think that this administration has only exacerbated 370 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,919 Speaker 1: the problem, and that dealing with such things such as 371 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: stimulus such as the American Recovery uh you know Act, 372 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 1: that the Cares Act, because we had all of this 373 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: money that was just being pumped into the economy, um, 374 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: all at once, it's it's not sustainable and so now 375 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: we're all paying the price, and people are not going 376 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 1: back to work like we had anticipated, or else are 377 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: going back to the same jobs. Um, And we're not 378 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 1: seeing the growth like we had anticipated. And I agree 379 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: though with with the other with the other panelists that, UM, 380 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 1: I think we need to maybe not given to the 381 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: doom and gloom and into so much of the fear tactics. 382 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: We spend too much, too much stimulus aemy. Yes, definitely 383 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: too much stimulus. And that was a problem of this 384 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: current administration. So it's a problem there and the Fed 385 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: not starting fast enough? Is that? Is that your field? Oh? 386 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: And then and then with Jerome Pale coming out the 387 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: Federal chair UM the other day and then saying, okay, 388 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: now we're going to be you know, a raising interest 389 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: rates bye by half percent, and then we're going to 390 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 1: be increasing again here in the near future. Yes, that's 391 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: why the panic is setting in because he waited too late. 392 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 1: It took seventy five off the table. Though, Jeanie, what 393 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: what do people want? If you want to have an 394 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,879 Speaker 1: economy that's growing enough to get interest rates off a zero, 395 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: they've got to do some kind of a move, right 396 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,959 Speaker 1: he I thought he eliminated our worst fears. Yeah, they 397 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,479 Speaker 1: do have to do a move um And I I 398 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 1: also am sensitive to the fact that there is an 399 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 1: argument to be made that both the administration and the 400 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 1: Fed weren't listening to the discussion about or the calls 401 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: about regarding inflation um and so you know, could they 402 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: have moved faster? You know, we can look back and 403 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: say yes, you know, in all likelihood, given where we 404 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,399 Speaker 1: are now, that would have assisted. But I think on 405 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: this question of you know, whether Donald Trump or Joe 406 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: Biden both are one is to blame. I do think 407 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: we have to be cognizant that, you know, it had 408 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: been a hundred years since the country had been in 409 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: the pandemic, and we had a shutdown of the economy 410 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 1: that was unprecedented in the modern era. The United States 411 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: has recovered from that in much stronger shape than any 412 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 1: of us predicted one or two years ago, and much 413 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: better than many other parts of the world. So if 414 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: there is some you know, some bright light here, it 415 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: is those kinds. It is those kinds of comparisons. Can 416 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: we do better, absolutely, but those are that That's the reality. So, Jamie, 417 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 1: how important is this jobs are working to be tomorrow? 418 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,680 Speaker 1: For Joe Biden he's gonna come out and say something 419 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: about this. There's forty five numbers in one of these reports, 420 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 1: and some of them are going to be good, probably 421 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: job growth, right payrolls. There's a lot of worry about 422 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: some of the underlying data. Though. How does this play 423 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: for the White House tomorrow? You know, I think he's 424 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 1: got to come out and and it's gonna be tough 425 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 1: for for Joe Biden because he keeps talking about these 426 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: good job numbers and hopefully tomorrow is is fairly positive. 427 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 1: But he's also got to talk about the fact that 428 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 1: every time we go and spend money, we are seeing inflation, 429 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: and he's got to keep on that message that the 430 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 1: White House is doing all it can to address that pain. 431 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: You know, we're looking at polling out from all kinds 432 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 1: of areas that the economic numbers the American public are 433 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,959 Speaker 1: feeling are the worst that we've seen in more than 434 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: a decade or two in terms of how they feel. 435 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: And it's the feeling that impacts the politics. Jennie Chanzano 436 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: and Amy Tarkanian our panel today on Bloomberg Sound On. 437 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington as we head for another 438 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,439 Speaker 1: big story here I'm assuming it's going to be an 439 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: interesting morning from Marty Walsh tomorrow. But on Capitol Hill 440 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: today it was Roe v. Way. They were talking about 441 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 1: there's going to be a vote next week in the 442 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: Senate and some passionate remarks today from Senator kirston Jilabrand. 443 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about this in the Strategy from the 444 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: White House. Next, this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. 445 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Another 446 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,439 Speaker 1: day with protesters out in front of the Supreme Court 447 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 1: following the leak, the big leak this week of the 448 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: draft opinion and what appears to be alluding decision by 449 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 1: the Court to invalidate Roe v. Wade, Dueling protesters. As 450 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 1: you can hear, this has been going on all day 451 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: every day since this dropped on Monday. They have put 452 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,879 Speaker 1: the fence back up around the Capitol. The security is 453 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: intense around the Supreme Court itself. As you might suspect, 454 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 1: Democrats latch onto roll roll back with Senate control in balance. 455 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: I read a great column from Laura Advent on the 456 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: terminal with the prospects of this Supreme Court ruling resetting 457 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,199 Speaker 1: many election election messages, and of course it's got Democrats 458 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: at work, certainly in the Senate. Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, 459 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: says it will happen next week. This is about to change. 460 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: Next week, the U. S. Senator is going to vote 461 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: on legislation to codify a woman's right to seek an 462 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: abortion into federal law. I intend to file culture on 463 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 1: this vital legislation Monday, which would set up a vote 464 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:37,879 Speaker 1: for Wednesday. Republicans will have two choices. They can own 465 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,919 Speaker 1: the destruction of women's rights, where they can reverse course 466 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 1: and work to prevent the damage. He was joined by 467 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 1: several other Democrats, including Senator at Kirston Childebrand of New York, 468 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:55,199 Speaker 1: who got to the podium and spoke passionately about not 469 00:26:55,400 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: just this impending ruling, but the lying, as she calls it, 470 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 1: and Schumer called it that as well. The Leader called 471 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: it that on the floor, the lying that the justices 472 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: when they were nominees conducted in front of their confirmation hearings. 473 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: Listen to Kyrsten Gillibrand, and we never had fraudulent testimony, 474 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 1: and the Supreme Court standing behind the justices commit fraud 475 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: during hearings. So if you want to talk about process. 476 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: I would focus on that process. She got to the 477 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 1: podium and really got into this. Everybody else backed off 478 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,640 Speaker 1: as Senator Gillibrand made the point, it is an outrage 479 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 1: that we have five justices on the Supreme Court who lied, 480 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: lied in their confirmation hearings in order to be confirmed. 481 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 1: It is an outrage that in America today that our 482 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 1: judicial system is so corrupted and so politicized and no 483 00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 1: longer representative the will of the people. Five justice is 484 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: said they respect President precedents. Five said that Roe v. 485 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 1: Wade was established precedents. Five said they would never undermine 486 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: established precedent. It is unconscionable what this decision will do 487 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 1: to the American people. But does it matter? First of all, 488 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 1: did they lie? And does it matter if they did? 489 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,199 Speaker 1: I think the conversations we've had over the last few 490 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: days suggest that, well it doesn't. They're not going to 491 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 1: be held in contempt of Congress. This is what we 492 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 1: have here now, And so we reassembled the panel. Genie, 493 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: of course, back with us our democratic analysts and Bloomberg 494 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: Politics contributor Genie Chanzano along side Amy Tarkanian. Today, Republican 495 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 1: strategist and former chair of the Nevada State GOP Genie. 496 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,959 Speaker 1: That gives you a sense of what the debates are 497 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: going to sound like when we get into the general election, 498 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 1: doesn't it. It does, And we are already seeing this 499 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: on the ground, as you mentioned, particularly at the level 500 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 1: of the state gubernatorial races, at the attorney generals, because 501 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: of course, if this decision and this draft becomes a decision, 502 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 1: that is where the decision will lie at the state level. 503 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: So we see gubernatorial candidates, a g candidates addressing it. 504 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 1: We also see congressional candidates addressing it. We saw a 505 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 1: candidate for the for the Wisconsin state who Senate who 506 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: you know Wisconsin of course has trigger laws. We already 507 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,280 Speaker 1: saw her come out and attack Ron Johnson on abortion. 508 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 1: Ads are starting to come out and so many Democrats 509 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: saying that this is going to be the big issue 510 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 1: of the mid term. But of course the flip side 511 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: of that is others who say, nope, it is always 512 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: the economy, always inflation that remains number one. And that's 513 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: what I think. We're going to have to wait and 514 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: see where voters land on this. Well, that's absolutely right. Uh, 515 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 1: it's certainly going to be a motivator, Amy, I think 516 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: that we can agree. I don't know if it motivates 517 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: Democrats more than Republicans, but that's the conventional wisdom. Uh. 518 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: Right now, I wonder what you think of of the 519 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 1: the the different ways that the parties have responded to this, 520 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 1: though Republicans really have not been weighing in on the 521 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: substance of what this ruling appears to be. They've been 522 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: talking about the leaks, right, this is we're going to 523 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 1: get to the bottom of this, an attack on the 524 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 1: independence of the court. Chuck Schumer was asked about that today. 525 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 1: Listen to his response, the Supreme Courts, the Supreme Courts 526 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 1: looking into that. But to compare a leak to taking 527 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:26,959 Speaker 1: away the rights of over a hundred million women and 528 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 1: saying the league is more important, give me a break. 529 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: Forget it. They mean, it's the league more important? Well, 530 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: you know, I just I don't mean this to sound callous, 531 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 1: but but it is slightly more important. And because this 532 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 1: sets the precedent than for any anything else in the 533 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: future that you know, other Supreme Court justices may want 534 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 1: to overturn or make some other decisions on UM. And 535 00:30:54,480 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 1: I think that it is incredibly UM concerning that there 536 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: as a leak. Now, whether if the leak was on 537 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 1: this topic or any other topic, I I do believe 538 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 1: that this is not only ethically and morally wrong, but 539 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 1: it is it done intentionally and it will do uh 540 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 1: forever damage in our faith in the system. Unfortunately in 541 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 1: the fact that this was leaked, Yes, but then I 542 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: think it's even worse now if you want to go 543 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 1: ahead and get into the actual topic of abortion and 544 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 1: dealing with the unborn and dealing with women having to 545 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 1: make these excruciating choices. Uh, you know this, This is 546 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: this is an area where I think we need to 547 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: be incredibly sensitive, whether if you're pro life or pro choice, 548 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 1: And the fact that this leaked out the way that 549 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: it did is just so wrong. And I hope that 550 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,479 Speaker 1: they find the person that did this, and I think 551 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: everyone agrees on that. What what about the looming debate 552 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 1: here and the way this is going to influence the 553 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 1: messaging on the campaign trail going into the midterms? Amy, 554 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: is this going to be the single shoe that brings 555 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: people to the polls or Republicans going to have an argument? Um? 556 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 1: I think their argument is going to rally their base 557 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,760 Speaker 1: to some extent. However, in the end, your pocketbook is 558 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: not Democrat or Republican. If you can't pay your bills, 559 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: if you can't put gas in your tank, if you 560 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: can't feed your children and clothe your children, then you 561 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,719 Speaker 1: have a lot of other problems than what what another 562 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: female may or may not decide to do with their 563 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 1: body at this moment. And I know that sounds callous, 564 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 1: but it is true. Well, I have to be honest. 565 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,479 Speaker 1: I think if if anyone suggesting the leak is is 566 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 1: worse than the ruling, and I realized that you're a 567 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 1: Republican strategist and you have convictions on this, amy may 568 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 1: also sound callous to some of our listeners. Well, you know, 569 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: if if you really want to, you know, I mean, 570 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 1: you could probably pick a poll, any poll at this point. 571 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 1: I've seen a half dozen of them where no matter 572 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 1: your party affiliation, I would say that anywhere from the 573 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 1: low fifties to the high sixty percentile of folks who 574 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: actually believe that there should be abortion available up until 575 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: fifteen weeks now. The argument is, you know, should we 576 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 1: have that just across the board all fifty states or 577 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: just take it back to the states. And that's exactly 578 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 1: what they're doing. Because this ruling UM in ninete A 579 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 1: lot of people will tell you that it was vague 580 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: and that this was legislation from the bench. So that's 581 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: why we're dealing with it the way that we are today. Well, 582 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 1: that's true. But when when Gorsuch UH and Kavanaugh in particular, 583 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 1: we're in their own testimony and their confirmation hearings, they 584 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 1: also made clear that this was the settled law of 585 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 1: the land, that this was precedent. Does it bother you 586 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: that that this is uh, that this is sounding a 587 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: lot different now than it did when they were speaking 588 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 1: to lawmakers about getting confirmed. Well, you know, I don't 589 00:33:54,640 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 1: recall exactly what what the term if they did, well, 590 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,400 Speaker 1: if they did say those exact words and they were 591 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 1: going to stick to it, then yes, of course that's 592 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: concerning UM. If UH, if they were following like what 593 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 1: I just um I told you about others insinuating that 594 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,600 Speaker 1: this from the get go, this ruling from the get 595 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: go was legislating from the bench rather than interpreting UH, 596 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: then yes we have a problem. And maybe and maybe 597 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 1: that's why they're making the choice they are now to 598 00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 1: this day. But I think we also need to be 599 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:33,360 Speaker 1: careful because it's not misinformation which is accidental. This is 600 00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:37,440 Speaker 1: disinformation where the left is actually pushing by trying to 601 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: damage the right and saying that they're taking away their 602 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 1: rights and their freedoms and that abortion will be gone completely, 603 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: which is not the case. It's just going back to 604 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 1: the people of the state, understood, But it will be 605 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,279 Speaker 1: gone for for for women who aren't don't have the 606 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 1: money or resource to travel, which is which is an 607 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: issue here, Genie. We've seen actually some companies start to 608 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 1: step up now, some major Wall Street firms are considering 609 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: this idea of giving travel allowances uh to workers for 610 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 1: this and Senator Marco Rubio is putting fourth legislation that 611 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,920 Speaker 1: would prevent them from deducting that, making that a tax deduction. 612 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 1: This is really coming down uh to splitting hairs here 613 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,319 Speaker 1: into some sort of micro legislation. Genie, it is and 614 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,680 Speaker 1: you know, Gutmacher said, you know about twenty two to 615 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: twenty six states, Well, likely when if this decision comes through, 616 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 1: have a ban on abortion, um many of those in 617 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,760 Speaker 1: those trigger laws, and of course that does raise questions 618 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: about are we going to be seeing you know, women 619 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:39,359 Speaker 1: uh restricted from traveling for instance, or people restricted from 620 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 1: helping women to travel to another state to seek an abortion. 621 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 1: So you know, those are all things that we're going 622 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 1: to be dealing with, and you know, we also just 623 00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 1: want to be clear when we're talking about this issue 624 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,360 Speaker 1: that you know, we this has been over fifty years, 625 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,480 Speaker 1: as we all know, so we don't really know what 626 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: the impact of this is going to in a political 627 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 1: sense as we look at the mid term. That bill 628 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,840 Speaker 1: is going to pass next week without Susan Collins Jenny, No, 629 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 1: the bill likely won't pass. But what it does do 630 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,920 Speaker 1: importantly is it does tell us who stands where and 631 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 1: allows the American people to hold people accountable. Senators will 632 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: be counted next week. We'll talk about it here. You 633 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,800 Speaker 1: know that on the fastest hour in politics, this is 634 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg