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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing in job.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting it to cash stop.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I

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Speaker 2: like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate

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Speaker 2: kabanity you want to pull and we are punder way. Well,

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Speaker 2: what's up everybody? Hope you had a happy Thanksgiving. Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 2: and this is your NFL Week fourteen betting preview. Today

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Speaker 2: will build our Sunday six pack of against the spread

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Speaker 2: bets with the help of my colleague, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky stuck. What's going on?

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Speaker 3: It's gone on? Brother, Exhausted with this season. Last week

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Speaker 3: I had the Falcons plus two and a half ninety

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Speaker 3: seven percent postgame when expected. See Chargers can't even get

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Speaker 3: a first down in the game. Cousins throws four picks,

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Speaker 3: who misses a thirty yard field goal and still it

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Speaker 3: was decided because the Chargers got a two point conversion.

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Speaker 3: If I just avoided that, my six pack loss on

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Speaker 3: a two point conversion this year, I owing six and

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Speaker 3: then to the top things off at the Browns plus

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Speaker 3: six and a half on Monday Night.

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Speaker 2: Full jamis experience. I know I'm better than this. I

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Speaker 2: know I'm like, I'm just praying for the Lord to

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Speaker 2: deliver me from pick sixes.

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Speaker 3: It's in the past. I've had way worse beats. It's

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Speaker 3: on to week fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get into the six pack in a secon,

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Speaker 2: but we'll break down a Thursday night game.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's Betay Night football.

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Speaker 2: First, and it's a good Thursday night game for you know,

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Speaker 2: not too often we get to say that. But we

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Speaker 2: got the Packers at the Lions rematch in Detroit. Lions

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Speaker 2: three and a half point favorites. The total fifty one

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Speaker 2: and a half, fifty five percent of the bets and

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Speaker 2: fifty three percent of the money on Detroit. So it's

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Speaker 2: about even. The over is getting eighty one percent of

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Speaker 2: the money fifty seven percent of the bets according to

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Speaker 2: our public bet being data tracked the action app So stuck,

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Speaker 2: uh interested free of thoughts on this one. You have

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Speaker 2: been betting against Detroit at times. I know you tend

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Speaker 2: to be high in the Packers Detroit dealing with some

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Speaker 2: injuries here. Decker, I don't think he practiced all week,

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Speaker 2: so that that's a that's a big injury. Of course,

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Speaker 2: some other guys on defense already out linebacker, but they

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Speaker 2: look like they're getting Davis and Moseley at the corner

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Speaker 2: should be good to go. So how are you feeling

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Speaker 2: about this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Decker is important I think here, especially given how

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Speaker 3: Skipper played in that Bears game, who was not great.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, van Ness who was coming along for the

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Speaker 3: Packers the past rush is getting a little better. I

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Speaker 3: really like too. Yeah, yeah, So I think that Decker's

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Speaker 3: status is important here. That the biggest injuries I'm watching

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Speaker 3: are along the Detroit defensive front. I mean their linebacker.

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Speaker 3: You've already lost ANZELONEI and Rodriguez and Barnes, I mean

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Speaker 3: they're linebackers now are just have been destroyed by injuries.

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Speaker 3: But now you might be missing You already lost Hutchinson,

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Speaker 3: and you've already lost a couple other depth guys along

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Speaker 3: the defensive line, but now you might be missing three more.

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Speaker 3: And you know, in reader, Pascal almost a rique. So

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Speaker 3: if all of those guys are out and you're destinated

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Speaker 3: a linebacker Jacob's Is Jacobs one hundred percent healthy too, though,

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Speaker 3: is a question. I assume he is, but he's he's

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Speaker 3: on the injury report as well. I assume it's pretty good.

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Speaker 2: We're pretty spry, uh, I must say in that Dolphins game,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, I guess they are bad in the cold.

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Speaker 2: Uh to close that from last week, but yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think I mean, he was putting out wide, so I

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Speaker 2: think that's just like a BS, you know, maintenance kind

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Speaker 2: of listing on the injury report for him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would that Dolphins game to have

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Speaker 3: played really well. I mean he was the We'll get

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Speaker 3: to the Dolphins there. I mean the Dolphins, they're they're

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Speaker 3: tackling was bad, which I think was a factor in

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Speaker 3: the cold. But they also lost three defensive backs in

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Speaker 3: the first quarter, which didn't help things. Uh. Yeah, So

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Speaker 3: the Packers conflicted on the total because I do think

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Speaker 3: that the lines should be able to move the ball,

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Speaker 3: especially if Decker plays. But does does earplay for the Packers.

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Speaker 3: I think he's important if he's one hundred percent healthy,

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Speaker 3: And because I don't love the Packers' cornerback group and

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Speaker 3: they haven't really been tested in like ideal conditions against

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Speaker 3: like fully healthy offenses a lot this year, so I

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Speaker 3: think his status matters as well. But I think regardless

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Speaker 3: of the Lions will I'll have success moving the ball.

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Speaker 3: I think that the Packers was success from the ball,

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Speaker 3: especially on the ground, but it could be even if

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Speaker 3: you go back to that first meeting. I know it

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Speaker 3: was outdoors and weather, but there was like seven or

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Speaker 3: eight just nine ten play drives, so it could be

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Speaker 3: just really run heavy and both neither team is fast,

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Speaker 3: so and that's a high total to clear. You probably

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Speaker 3: need like really strong red zone results to get there.

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Speaker 3: So but I'm pretty close to the number there. I

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Speaker 3: wanted to back the Packers here. I would lean that

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Speaker 3: way at over three, but I think these injuries are

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Speaker 3: are priced in properly. On the Detroit side. You gotta remember,

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Speaker 3: I know Love was banged up, but Detroit was a

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Speaker 3: three and a half point favorite in green Bay outdoors,

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Speaker 3: so you know you're I think that it's properly accounted for.

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Speaker 3: I would lean green Bay's direction. They're looking for action,

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Speaker 3: I might tease it. I can't see this being a

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Speaker 3: blot either way. No, it's not the ideal teaser, but

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Speaker 3: I think getting you're just looking for action. That's small

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Speaker 3: couch change. Bet Lafleur is very good as an underdog

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Speaker 3: historically twenty six and twelve. He's seventeen and two in December,

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Speaker 3: so you one of the only quarterbacks that ever beat

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Speaker 3: him was de Vito, believe it or not. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: lots of injury uncertainty here. I think both teams are

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Speaker 3: going to have success moving the ball. Probably comes down

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Speaker 3: to red zone execution, but I think the line is

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Speaker 3: close to right. If all these guys are out for

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Speaker 3: the Lions, I might set it at three, so would

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Speaker 3: lean Pack is a three and a half, but nothing's strong.

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Speaker 3: I think it's properly accounted for.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have it at about three. I think the

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Speaker 2: Packers are a very very good team, and the Lions

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Speaker 2: are obviously you know, like what the Super Bowl favor

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Speaker 2: right now, but they're they're banged up, and the Packers

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Speaker 2: are a team that can actually take advantage of it.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're the Bears kind of. I mean, they covered,

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Speaker 2: but they they're bumbling around and the Lion's really I

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Speaker 2: mean they face the coat with Anthony Richardson, so they

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Speaker 2: really haven't gotten tested too much lately, as these injuries

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Speaker 2: have started to mount. I think the Packers can change

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Speaker 2: all that. I mean, they're they're rolling. Love can go downfield,

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Speaker 2: he can test these corners. Jacobs, as you mentioned, can

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Speaker 2: run on them. So yeah, I think this is a

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Speaker 2: it's the division game, second matchup revenge spot for the Packers.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, adween Packers as well. All right, let's get

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Speaker 2: into our week fourteen Sunday six pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: All right, went three and three last week in the

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Speaker 2: six pack, Let's get going stuck for this week. I'll

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Speaker 2: start it off. Actually, I go first this week in

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Speaker 2: our drafts. So for our first pick, the first overall

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Speaker 2: of the week fourteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with

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Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns plus six and a half at the

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 3: My kids want to have a good course.

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Speaker 2: This is just one of those spots where, I mean

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Speaker 2: the market is just in love with the Steelers.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: They just blew out the I mean they put up

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Speaker 2: forty piece on the Bengals, but who doesn't. This is

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Speaker 2: historically just a kind of a wet down spot for them.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that works me a little bit is,

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Speaker 2: you know, it is a revenge spot. But if you

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Speaker 2: look at historically, Mike tom win coach teams twenty nine

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Speaker 2: forty nine and one thirty seven percent against the spread

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Speaker 2: when favored by more than a field goal coming off

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Speaker 2: a win. So I think this line is a little

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Speaker 2: bit inflated because you saw Winston throw all these pick

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Speaker 2: sixes on Monday night, and the Steelers had, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of the the game of the of the week

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Speaker 2: on Sunday, so it's kind of everyone, it's kind of

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Speaker 2: top of mind for both of these teams. But gameis Winston.

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Speaker 2: This is where I want him as a dog by

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Speaker 2: more than a field goal. He is twenty one and

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Speaker 2: eleven against the spread sixty six percent, and the Steer

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Speaker 2: defense is really good. They'll probably get Higsmith's back this week.

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Speaker 2: So I need a guy like Winston who could, you know,

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Speaker 2: be very efficient even if he's gonna make some mistakes,

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Speaker 2: because everyone makes mistakes against the Steelers, but Winston, Uh,

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Speaker 2: he's averaging seven point seven yards in attempt three hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty six passing yards per game, so he can

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Speaker 2: kind of get it into the same kind of shootout spot.

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Speaker 2: And the good thing about this is you don't even

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Speaker 2: need the Browns to win here, Like there is some

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Speaker 2: margin where they could backdoor it, or it could just

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Speaker 2: be one of these close Divis games and they could

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Speaker 2: cover the six and a half. And remember the Browns

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Speaker 2: even though they did I think get somewhat lucky in

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Speaker 2: that game a couple of weeks ago in the snow,

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Speaker 2: they they've shown they are able to be Pittsburgh. Like,

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Speaker 2: this is not an inept Browns team, even though they're

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Speaker 2: sitting at three and nine. It's kind of like that

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Speaker 2: Flacco team a little bit, just very volatile, very volatile team.

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Speaker 2: But if Winston doesn't completely go off the rails here,

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Speaker 2: which that's no guarantee, but this is this is the

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Speaker 2: spot where you want them, where you have that margin.

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Speaker 2: And this is also a luck a luck ranking game.

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Speaker 2: So on the year, Pittsburgh's the second luckiest team, and

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Speaker 2: our luck rankings Cleveland the fifth most unlucky. So that's

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Speaker 2: a gap of twenty six spots unlucky teams that hit

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Speaker 2: that threshold sixty two point seven percent against the spread

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Speaker 2: one twenty eight and seventy five since twenty eighteen and

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I mean he's he's only failed to cover

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Speaker 2: one time in his six starts divisional road dogs against

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Speaker 2: the home favorite that's covered four more times in their

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Speaker 2: last six. The divisional road dog is ninety three sixty

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Speaker 2: and six over the last two decades against the spread.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of trends pointing in Cleveland's direction. Cleveland

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Speaker 2: already showed they can beat Pittsburgh, and you you're getting

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Speaker 2: some margin here with a kind of a somewhat of

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Speaker 2: a classic letdown spot for the steer. So give me

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Speaker 2: the Browns.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind it. I mean, it's one of

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Speaker 3: the reasons I backed the Browns last week against the Broncos.

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Speaker 3: This probably will come down to how many pick six

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Speaker 3: is Jamis throws, right, Maybe I won't bet it so

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Speaker 3: you can cash it, because I bet it'll throw three.

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Speaker 3: I worry about the pressure that Pittsburgh will be able

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Speaker 3: to get because jamis under pressure. Is his numbers fall

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Speaker 3: off a cliff And the good thing about playing in

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Speaker 3: the snow is that you can't really get pressure. Its

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Speaker 3: defensive ends and hedge rush can't really grip get the

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Speaker 3: grip necessary ticket after opposing quarterbacks, and if you get

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Speaker 3: highs back here. Brown's still very dicey left tackle situation.

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Speaker 3: The rest of their offensive line is pretty healthy, and

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Speaker 3: then I do worry about the Brown's ability or lack

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Speaker 3: of ability to stop explosive passing place. And one of

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Speaker 3: the things that they also bene from in that weather

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Speaker 3: and the wind is that it is a big detriment

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Speaker 3: to deep downfield passes where Russell Wilson has really thrived in.

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Speaker 3: But from a numbers perspective and a spot even though

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Speaker 3: I mean they aren't a short week, stealers do have

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Speaker 3: revenge whip just takes some of the luster off of it.

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Speaker 3: I would lean that way. I would love to get

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Speaker 3: a seven. Here comes down to Winston and how many

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Speaker 3: picks six as he throws all right. For my first

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Speaker 3: pick and the second overall of the week fourteen Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack, I'm going with the Los Angeles Rams plus

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Speaker 3: five at home against the Buffalo Bills. A scary one,

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Speaker 3: but just a classic s bottle almost always bet. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I make this closer to three. The Bills have been great,

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Speaker 3: but this reminds me of earlier in the year. Everyone's

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Speaker 3: falling in love with the Bills. Josh Allen mvpaid. Just

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Speaker 3: all the signals are there. We're probably at the top

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Speaker 3: of the market on the Bills right now, who recently

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Speaker 3: laid this up a shorter price on the road against

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Speaker 3: Joe Flacco and the Colts. I have the Rams power

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Speaker 3: of a couple points ahead of the Colts, who also

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Speaker 3: had a hurt offensive line. It's just not a great

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Speaker 3: spot too on the surface. You just beat the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: and you blew out the forty nine ers on Sunday night,

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Speaker 3: and now you're going across the country after clinching the division.

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Speaker 3: I think their earliest team the clincher division in fifteen years,

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Speaker 3: going across the country for a non conference game against

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Speaker 3: the Rams team playing for their season. You lose this

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Speaker 3: game and the Seahawks win might be it. This game

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Speaker 3: is massive for the Rams. So I think you get

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Speaker 3: a Max Afford here likes the matchup. Things to builds

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Speaker 3: very zone heavy defense that actually against the passes and

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Speaker 3: below average if you've remove turnovers. I'll get to that

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Speaker 3: in a second. That's good for this Rams offense. You

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Speaker 3: want Stafford with the healthy receivers going against the zone numbers.

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Speaker 3: When this offense is fully healthy over the past two

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Speaker 3: seasons significantly better. I think this year is completing like

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Speaker 3: twenty percent more of his passes against zone than man,

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Speaker 3: and you know, you're just he's just going to be

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Speaker 3: able to find his receivers, able to find the holes

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Speaker 3: in his zone. I think the offensive line also is

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Speaker 3: going to trend up the rest of this season. They've

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Speaker 3: been pretty much like adding a guy back each week

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Speaker 3: for the past like four weeks, and they're now up

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Speaker 3: too close to full strength, so I think like that

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Speaker 3: continuity will start to see it. They've also started they've

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Speaker 3: also figured out their reds issues over the past month.

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Speaker 3: They've been much better in that department. I think seventy

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Speaker 3: two ish percent in touchdown scoring percentage inside the twenty

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Speaker 3: rams defense. It's not great, but they can get some pressure.

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Speaker 3: More importantly, their zone heavy also need to be against Allen,

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Speaker 3: who is just torches man can run against man. Seventeen

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Speaker 3: of his twenty touchdowns are against man this year. He

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Speaker 3: also probably has a turnover to coming this year sometime soon.

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Speaker 3: I mean he has last year six percent big time

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Speaker 3: throw rate, three percent turnover worthy play rate, get thirty

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Speaker 3: three touchdowns eighteen interceptions. This year six percent big time

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Speaker 3: throw right, three percent turnover worthy play rate, twenty touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: five interceptions, so he's been getting away with a couple

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Speaker 3: of throws. The reason I bring that up and the

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Speaker 3: Bills defense if your removed turner, is the Bills are

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Speaker 3: a plus seventeen in turnover marginal the year. That's number

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Speaker 3: one in the league. They're also they've converted eighty six

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Speaker 3: percent of their fourth downs. Their opponents are ten to

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Speaker 3: twenty four on fourth downs forty one percent. Their fourth

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Speaker 3: down percentage number one the league. You would expect them

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Speaker 3: with aut in that run game to be really good,

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Speaker 3: but I mean teams are just forty one percent on

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Speaker 3: fourth downs against some potential regression there as well. And

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Speaker 3: the Bills have just benefited from playing some teams with

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Speaker 3: injuries over the past month. I mean, you go back

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Speaker 3: to that San Francisco game, team was decimated, had no

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Speaker 3: chance outdoors with Purty as well. Stafford's ankle a bit

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Speaker 3: of a concern, but reading teeles, I think will be okay.

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Speaker 3: It's not like I need his mobility, so I think

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Speaker 3: that he'll be able to sit back in the pocket,

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Speaker 3: move the short passes runs can move the ball efficiently

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Speaker 3: similar to what he did against the Vikings in another

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Speaker 3: good spot earlier this year, and it's not like the

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Speaker 3: Bills blitz a ton and if you remove turnovers, like

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Speaker 3: the Bills defense against the past, it's like twentieth EPA

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Speaker 3: success rate, it's gettable. So I like the Rams. It's

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Speaker 3: a good spot. I like some of the matchup advantages

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Speaker 3: on both sides. And I'm looking forward to watching this

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Speaker 3: chess match between McDermott and McVeigh. They've met two prior times.

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Speaker 3: One was with GoF It was like twenty twenty. The

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Speaker 3: Rams were down by like twenty came back it was

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Speaker 3: like thirty four to thirty seven is a while.

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Speaker 2: Oh I remember that game. Yeah, it was like a

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Speaker 2: high scoring game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And then there was another one like the season opener.

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Speaker 3: I think season opener Bills blew them out. The Rams

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Speaker 3: were trying like a bunch of new offensive lineman after

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Speaker 3: winning the Super Bowl, and it was a disastrous performance

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Speaker 3: by their offensive line. But yeah, I think that this

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Speaker 3: line is inflated. We're at the top of the market

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Speaker 3: on the Bills here. It's not a great spot, and

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Speaker 3: I think the Rams have some matchup advances here. Even

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Speaker 3: though the Bills be getting healthier, right, he might be

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Speaker 3: getting a couple of their their key pieces back. The

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Speaker 3: numbers a bit too high given the spot.

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Speaker 2: It's tough for me to cap the Bills because I

321
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Speaker 2: just feel like it's like they're a new Lions. It's like,

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Speaker 2: when do you fade them like they just it's it's

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Speaker 2: it's getting tougher to fade them. That Stafford ankle thing

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Speaker 2: is just mysterious. I mean, this year, I feel like

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Speaker 2: has just been the most mysterious injury year. So I

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Speaker 2: would like to see make sure he's good to go.

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Speaker 2: But I do agree that the spot is, you know,

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Speaker 2: it is a letdown spot going across the country for

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Speaker 2: the Bills after clinching. So we'll see. But they I

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Speaker 2: think mcveig. I think McVeigh will probably run the ball

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Speaker 2: a ton that's in the second half against the Saints.

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Speaker 2: That's what they did. He was like, you know what,

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna run over and over again. Apparently he

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Speaker 2: told his team that at halftime. So I could see

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Speaker 2: them trying to do something similar against the Bills because

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Speaker 2: I think you keep it on the ground short in

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Speaker 2: the game and their run defense has been vulnerable at

338
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Speaker 2: times as well, so I think that probably could be

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Speaker 2: another one of those under long drive undergames too. For

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Speaker 2: my second pick and the third overall of the week

341
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Speaker 2: fourteen and Sunday six pack, going with the Las Vegas

342
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Speaker 2: Raiders plus six and a half at Tampa Bay. This

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Speaker 2: is an ugly one, but I mean that's what that's

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Speaker 2: what we've been doing all year here on this pod.

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Speaker 2: And I think they're eight yeah right, yeah, exactly. I

346
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Speaker 2: think the Raiders, you know, they are going across the

347
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Speaker 2: country here, but long rest they played on Black Friday.

348
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Speaker 2: They are getting healthier. Remember, they were just completely injury

349
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Speaker 2: ravaged throughout the entire middle part of the season. Even

350
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Speaker 2: coming off their bye, they were banged up. So they

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Speaker 2: about the healthiest they've been all year now. And you

352
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Speaker 2: have a Tampa Bay team that's coming off an overtime

353
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Speaker 2: game where their offense plays eighty snaps and their defense

354
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Speaker 2: played seventy snaps. And the reason I bring up their

355
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Speaker 2: offense playing eighty snaps is because their two most important

356
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Speaker 2: offensive players got banged up in that game, Bucky Irving

357
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Speaker 2: with a hip and Baker Bayfield. You know how to

358
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Speaker 2: come out of the game at one point for a

359
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 2: few plays, So I don't know if he's one hundred percent,

360
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Speaker 2: he sure didn't look at in that game, and he

361
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 2: started kind of going reverting back a little bit to

362
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Speaker 2: the old Baker, you know, some turnovers and just questionable

363
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Speaker 2: throws and things like that.

364
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Speaker 3: Although he cannot do anything against that Hebrew defense. He

365
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Speaker 3: look at his numbers over the past series, it's been horrifying.

366
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Speaker 3: But Irving too, Irving could barely walk. I know, he

367
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Speaker 3: says he feels better, but he was going into the

368
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Speaker 3: Lockerman after the game. He was speaking that ad solved

369
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Speaker 3: by wound. I have Chargers under nine. They somehow win

370
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Speaker 3: that game. I have Bucks under they somehow win that game.

371
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Speaker 3: When the fumble and miss field goal and what was

372
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Speaker 3: another one Panther's over Panthers I was. I was like, yeah,

373
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Speaker 3: we can still get here, we can still get here,

374
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Speaker 3: and then they and yeah Trouba of all people too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah it was that was rough, pretty rough. But yeah,

376
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Speaker 2: I think so. I think the Bucks are a little

377
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Speaker 2: bit vulnerable right now. You know, it's we were doing

378
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Speaker 2: this on Wednesday. So I'm just trying to get ahead of, uh,

379
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Speaker 2: you know, potential injury news for the Bucks, because anything

380
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Speaker 2: less than you know, one hundred percent I think, I

381
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 2: think from those two guys is important. I mean, Bucky

382
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 2: Everton got twenty twenty eight touches in that game. He's

383
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Speaker 2: kind of taken over their their rush offense and the Raiders.

384
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Speaker 2: The what thing you know since to Buy they've been

385
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: doing well a lot better is play run defense. They

386
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 2: are They've allowed two hundred eight yards on sixty four

387
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 2: carries since to Buy in three games, are second in

388
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 2: rush EPA over that span, Tampa Bay first. But the

389
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 2: Raiders run game doesn't matter, Like we know, they're not

390
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: going to run the ball regardless, although the Keard McCormick

391
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 2: looks a little better than what they've had. But uh,

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Speaker 2: you also have eight and O'Connell, who I think is

393
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 2: at this point better for the Raiders offense than Minshew.

394
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Speaker 2: I know minshew won the job out of camp, but

395
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Speaker 2: it just seems to work better. Everything seems to work

396
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 2: better with O'Connell in there. He can hit Trey Tucker

397
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Speaker 2: down the field. He has a really good connection there,

398
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Speaker 2: which you don't really see as much of with Minshew.

399
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: So you get some get more of the Explosi development.

400
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 2: Bowers is gonna ball regardless, Myers is healthy, and if

401
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 2: you look at O'Connell's history. I was actually surprised to

402
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: see this too, but he's nine three and one against

403
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 2: the spread, seventy five percent, covering by an average of

404
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: seven point one points per game on the road, five

405
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 2: and one against the spread, covering by six point three

406
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 2: points per game. So I think the Raiders can hang

407
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 2: in there. I think they can. They're gonna be able

408
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 2: to score here, and their defense, you know, getting a

409
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 2: little better against the run. They might be able to

410
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 2: get just enough stops or just getting the back door

411
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Speaker 2: with O'Connell doing some stuff down the field. But they

412
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: out gained the Chiefs four point thirty four to three

413
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Speaker 2: twenty nine, and even in that loss to Denver, they

414
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: outgained the Broncos three three sixty nine to three twenty five.

415
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: So Raiders slightly turning up to just a bad team

416
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Speaker 2: instead of that completely horrible team that they were when

417
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 2: they were, you know, just all banged up the middle

418
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 2: of the season. And and they got the new offensive

419
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 2: coordinator as well, So I think that brus O'Connell, I

420
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 2: think this team's a little bit underrated in the market here,

421
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 2: like the spot, even though it's on the road. So

422
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Speaker 2: give me Raiders plus six and a half.

423
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Speaker 3: Yeah, Wellconnor looked really comfortable. I don't think it was

424
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Speaker 3: all O'Connell because I do think there's been a pig

425
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Speaker 3: upgrade in play calling and play construction all of that.

426
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Speaker 3: But he did look very comfortable against the blitz and

427
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 3: against the complex defense and Bucky ERMI, yeah, he's one

428
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 3: hundred percent. That's huge. I mean, he's second in the

429
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Speaker 3: NFL in YAK per attempt. That's he has the highest

430
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Speaker 3: receiving grade have any running in the league. He also

431
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Speaker 3: has two hundred and fifty six yards rushing when contacted

432
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: adder behind the line of scrimmage. You know, the only

433
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: players more Barkley two fifty seven. Irving has forty fewer attempts.

434
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean a huge difference efficiency between him and

435
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 2: We're shot away.

436
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's massive. So yeah, I don't I don't love

437
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: Baker as a favorite. I think this Bucks teams a

438
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 3: fraud overall. It's funny because I took the Bucks under

439
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: and one of the things I said is there's a

440
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 3: couple of interesting young pieces that could make this could

441
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 3: raise his team ceiling. And you know, like Tyke Smith

442
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 3: and Bucky Irving and Irving's conceeded my wildest expectations, and

443
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 3: I thought that he was he was underdrafted for where

444
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 3: he went. The Raiders, they just come out flat. Your

445
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 3: season's over, like you're playing the Bucks. It's like, are

446
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: they just a little deflated after that Chiefs game? That's

447
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: my only concern.

448
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 2: If the quarterback is in it into it, which I

449
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: think he will be, you hope that the rest of

450
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 2: the team is there all right.

451
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 3: For my second pick and the fourth overall of the

452
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 3: week fourteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Kansas

453
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: City Chiefs minus four at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.

454
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm betting the Chiefs as a favor,

455
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 3: and I can't believe I'm about to say this, but

456
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 3: I think that there's finally value on the Chiefs and

457
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 3: we've reached the bottom of the market on them. They

458
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 3: haven't covered what's six straight and they can't cover as

459
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 3: a favorite. But I think this sets up as a

460
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 3: really good spot to do so for a number of reasons,

461
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: I love this bet this weekend. Number one, it's a

462
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 3: tough situational spot for the Chargers. It was last week

463
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: too short week going on the road, across the country,

464
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 3: multiple time zones, and yeah, I know they covered in

465
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 3: one by four. They did nothing. They did literally nothing.

466
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 3: They just had Cousins throw them in the ball. I

467
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: don't know what Cousins was doing the whole game. They

468
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 3: couldn't run the ball, they couldn't pass protect, they couldn't

469
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 3: throw the ball. Lat mcconkiy had basically all of their

470
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 3: yards and he's hurt. So like the Charters were horrendous

471
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 3: last week. Now you're going again on the road for

472
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 3: your second straight game, more travel, and you're playing a

473
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 3: Chiefs team coming off extended rest. So just number one

474
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: spot pretty good. I also think the Chargers are just

475
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 3: override in the market right now. Yeah, I know they're

476
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 3: eight and four, but I mean, who have they beat?

477
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 3: They have one win over a team with a winning record.

478
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 3: Is that the Broncos, I think, on the year had

479
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: to ridiculously easy schedule. If you look at our luck rankings,

480
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 3: they've been just as lucky as the Chiefs. The Chiefs

481
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: have been lucky. I mean they're winning games on the

482
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,479
Speaker 3: most absurd ways you could like block field goals, illegal shifts,

483
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 3: you name it. But the Charters have been just as lucky.

484
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 3: I mean, last week was the luckiest win of any

485
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: team that's had in the NFL in three seasons by

486
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 3: postgame win expectancy against the Falcons, and they have played

487
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: just one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The

488
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 3: Chiefs were laying seven in LA earlier this year and

489
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: one by seven, which they should have. It's pretty fair result. Now,

490
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 3: there's a lot of things I also like besides the

491
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: spot and the price, Chargers zone heavy d bad against

492
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: power running backs, check go back Mahomes rips apart zones

493
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: and the Chargers aren't elite generating pressure. Chargers defense still

494
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: dealing with some injuries as well. I also think the

495
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 3: Chiefs offense is trending up. Not only do you get

496
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 3: a check go back mahomes Is surface stats have been

497
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 3: proved since they got Hopkins's seventy percent completion of presenters

498
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 3: thirteen touchdowns, three interceptions, But I expect J. Humphries to

499
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 3: start a left tackle and that's massive. Their left tackle

500
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 3: has been an absolute turnstile. It's ruined multiple drives. That's

501
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,160
Speaker 3: why Mahomes is pressured to Sack ratio is skyrocketed. Reports

502
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: are good on Humphrey and I mean things got so

503
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: bad you're kicking your guard out to left tackle in

504
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: the middle of the game. Last week. It's been horrendous.

505
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: So I expect companies to go based on the comments

506
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 3: that I heard today and coming out of the Chiefs camp.

507
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 3: That's massive other side of the ball. So I think

508
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 3: it's a good matchup with the Chiefs offense if that

509
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 3: left tackle situation is resolved and you have to check

510
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 3: go back. I think they can run. I think they

511
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 3: can short pass all the way down the field against

512
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 3: the Chargers. The lots of third down conversions as usual.

513
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: The other side of the ball. How are the Chargers

514
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: moving the ball? I don't know. I can't run it.

515
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: Snow Dobbins saw what happened last week. It's some bad

516
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:48,239
Speaker 3: Falcons run day. Couldn't run the ball, And how are

517
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: they moving the ball through the air last week or recently?

518
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: Do you have to throw it to Labnacon. That's basically

519
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,239
Speaker 3: their offense of late. And I mean last week they

520
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 3: ran the ball seventeen times for fifty six yards against

521
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 3: the Falcons without Dobbins. We saw without Dobbins that happen

522
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 3: against the Ravens to their rush offense last week, mccakay

523
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 3: had nine for one to seventeen. The rest of the

524
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: team had thirty three yards receiving their receivers. Stink against Man?

525
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: What are they going to get here?

526
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 4: Man?

527
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 3: I don't think mcconakee plays. If he does, he's not

528
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: gonna be one hundred percent. Who's getting open against man

529
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: coverage on the Chargers? Nobody? And you're talking you look

530
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 3: at Herbert's numbers when throwing to mcconkee, you're talking north

531
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 3: of a fifty percent success rate. His success rate when

532
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: throwing anyone else drops by twelve percent bottom feed or levels.

533
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 3: And when you look at Herbert's numbers against Man this year, bad,

534
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 3: horrible and his only Man beater is mconkie. Quinton Johnson

535
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 3: drops everything, Joshua Palmer, is he getting separation?

536
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 2: Winsprint now? Just to run on windsburns out here?

537
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 3: Of course he caught the two point conversion for me

538
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: against me, but thanks josh So like, I don't know

539
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 3: how they're moving the ball.

540
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 2: Uh.

541
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 3: She's also gonna get some pressure up the middle, which

542
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: is where I think you have to get pressure against

543
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 3: the Chargers with Chris Jones. So I think this is

544
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 3: a good matchup, and I think it's the bottom of

545
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 3: the market on the Chiefs as a favorite. I don't

546
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 3: need him to win by a ton of margin here.

547
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 3: I say that they're gonna win by field goal. Should

548
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 3: I shouldn't throw that out there. But the Chargers without

549
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 3: Dobbins in a bad spot, and potentially without McConkey or

550
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 3: a limited McConkey, I don't see it. I can't get

551
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: to this number. And I think the big the biggest

552
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 3: thing here which I think can make a world of

553
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: a difference is Humphrey's the left tack, the left tackle situation.

554
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: You just watch it. The Chiefs can't operate their offense.

555
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 3: And if that gets better and you give the Mahomes

556
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: time to scramble and find holes in the Charger zone,

557
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 3: he's going to do it and they're going to convert

558
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: their downs. The Charger not could be able to. And

559
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: I think that the Chiefs finally get some margin on

560
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: a team here in a good spot.

561
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you would think the Charges got exposed

562
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: last week that game, I mean that was it probably goes,

563
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 2: you know, over a lot of people's heads because they won.

564
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: But and you know, no one's just digging real deep

565
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: into Chargers Falcons week thirteen. But yeah, they they they

566
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 2: couldn't they. I mean Gus Edwards. I was very kind

567
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 2: of mystified when they were going to kind of rely

568
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 2: on him as their lead back, you know, even to

569
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 2: open the year, and then they and then they kind

570
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: of switched to Dobbins and it worked out. But he's

571
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: not He's not playing well there. Their run game is

572
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: so bad that they're using Hassan Haskins as like a

573
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: short yardage powerback. It's like it's they were throwing to

574
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 2: their three hundred pounds full back. I mean, they don't

575
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 2: really have the answers anymore. So, Yeah, this Charger offense

576
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: is just I mean, they got exposed last week. It

577
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: should get exposed this week. Hopefully, there's just no ridiculousness,

578
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: you know, because the Chiefs, like you said, they always

579
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 2: found a way to make these games close. Probably shouldn't

580
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: have even been close against the Raiders, But yeah, I do

581
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 2: think the Chargers are of value in the market. For

582
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 2: my third pick and the fifth overall of the week

583
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: fourteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Chicago Bears

584
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 2: plus four at the San Francisco forty nine ers. Hungry

585
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: Bears are violent Bears. I like the Bears, no eber Flus,

586
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 2: Thomas Brown running the offense. Caleb Williams playing a lot

587
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: better since Brown took over for Waldron, since they got

588
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: Waldron out of here. So when like I've said this

589
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 2: all the year with the Bears, like they have talent.

590
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: The real issue with the Bears is their coach, is

591
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: that they have a lot of talent, in my opinion,

592
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: So I like this spot with the Niners nodded one

593
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: hundred percent and the Bears, you know, kind of addition

594
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 2: by subtraction eber Flus Waldron a couple weeks before that.

595
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 2: Williams is completing sixty seven percent of his passes for

596
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 2: seven point one yards in attempt in the three games

597
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 2: under Brown, compared to fifty nine point five percent of

598
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 2: his passes for six point one yards in attempt in

599
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: all the games where with Shane Waldron. He threw for

600
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: three forty two touchdowns no picks against Minnesota, that's the

601
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 2: number two defense in terms of past DVOA, and then

602
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 2: he threw for three touchdowns, no picks and two hundred

603
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: and fifty six against Detroit, which was the number one

604
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: San Francisco's defense. Now we know Warner's not even healthy.

605
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 2: I mean, and it kind of shows. The last couple

606
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: of games had a thirty three percent misstackle rate, which

607
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 2: is three.

608
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 3: Times average perception. Like, yeah, when he's been targeted astronomical

609
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 3: and I was like, what is going on here? Now

610
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 3: makes sense? Step a Spur.

611
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, so he's you know, I think they're gonna they're

612
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: gonna still. I do think the Niners are still like

613
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,760
Speaker 2: going for the division, So I don't think they're gonna

614
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: give a poor effort or anything like that. But you

615
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 2: got Warner not healthy, he's if not, he's not the

616
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 2: most important player on your defense. Definitely the second most important,

617
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: because the most important is Bosa hip hip an obleak injuries.

618
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: Didn't practice all of last week, wasn't even close to playing, Lenore,

619
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: your slot corner didn't practice all last week, wasn't close

620
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,479
Speaker 2: to playing. And then flip it over Trent Williams, Uh,

621
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 2: you know the right.

622
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: That's not great.

623
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, thoughts go out to him and his family.

624
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: You know they're dealing, you know, some tragedy as well.

625
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 2: So who knows that he's you know, even if he's

626
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 2: he's healthy. Is are they gonna push him this week?

627
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, he wasn't even close. Didn't practice all week

628
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 2: last week. Their offense falls off al without Trent Williams,

629
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 2: their yards per carry, everything. So Chicago's tenth in past DVOA,

630
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 2: number one thou Backs left either yeah, yeah, so I'm

631
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: gonna get like, so they're not first, let me talk

632
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: about their pasty. So they're number ten and past the defense,

633
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: that's their strength. They're number one on third down, the

634
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 2: number three in red zone, and their pass defense is

635
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: probably still underrated because uh, you know they have that

636
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 2: hail Mary, uh, you know, going against their stats and whatnot.

637
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 2: But their weakness is run defense. But like you alluded to,

638
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 2: this is the weakest San Francisco's run game has ever been.

639
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,479
Speaker 2: You lost McCaffrey, you lost Jordan Mason, uh, and Trent

640
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 2: Williams if he goes, he's not going to be close

641
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 2: to one hundred percent. But it doesn't even look like

642
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 2: he's gonna go at all. And then to top it

643
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 2: all off, there's also a chance that rock perty how

644
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 2: healthy is he? I mean, he had that shoulder injury

645
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 2: that just he couldn't make a start two weeks ago,

646
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 2: he comes back and throws for ninety four yards. I

647
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 2: know it was the snow, but now you're looking at

648
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: his last two games, Rot Purdy has thrown for two

649
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty three yards combined in his last two

650
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 2: games on forty six attempts. That is five point five

651
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: yards an attempt for a dude that was essentially the

652
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: all time leader in yards per attempt, like, you know,

653
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 2: hovering around nine for his career. So is he even

654
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,720
Speaker 2: one hundred percent healthy? We don't know. Everyone just assumes

655
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: it was a snow. But I mean when you have

656
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: a like remember Deshaun Watson when he had that shoulders

657
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 2: who popped up, he never was the same Cam Newton, like,

658
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 2: you never know these things. So uh, I don't know

659
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: where the health of the San Francisco offense is, but

660
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 2: I think Chicago is underrated just because you look at

661
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 2: their offense, Cable Williams playing well, you got receivers. The

662
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 2: one thing I'm worried about is what their their tackle

663
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 2: right left that game on Thanksgiving.

664
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 3: So out of about Allen though, too, I think he

665
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 3: matters to Kale.

666
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think he's I don't think he's

667
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 2: uh As seriously hurt. I haven't seen I think right

668
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: is the more the bigger issue. But I mean even

669
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: in that game, like they still move the ball.

670
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 3: I mean Alan didn't practice today. That's why I said

671
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 3: it because he but it's Wednesday. But Joe was just

672
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 3: asking like how how. I mean More didn't practice either

673
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 3: with his squad, so I would be I think Allen

674
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 3: has does have a risk of missing though.

675
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 2: I mean that's fair, that is fair.

676
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 3: I think he makes he makes a difference, he does

677
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:38,720
Speaker 3: all these Yeah, especially who I think is leaning towards

678
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 3: now then, Yeah, because that's where the forty nine ers

679
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 3: have an advantage in this game, is running the ball.

680
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 3: I mean, and because the Bears Rundy has been bad

681
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 3: since I lost Billings and I don't know if they're

682
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 3: going to be able to do that here. And that's

683
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 3: tough game though. I mean there's a lot of different

684
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 3: angles here.

685
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 2: Short week though, short week, injured and the Bears on

686
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 2: long rest. So I mean, yes, the Bears have some

687
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,280
Speaker 2: key injuries, but they also have the longest possible rest

688
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 2: to get the unhealthy.

689
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean I can't blame you for taking

690
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 3: the points. There's just a lot of play here.

691
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 4: All right?

692
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 3: For my third pick and the six overall the week

693
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 3: fourteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with the New York

694
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 3: we claim to play football Giants plus five the Saints.

695
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 3: I think this thing will close three and a half.

696
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: Could be wrong, and that's where I think it's heeted.

697
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 3: I'm very sorry.

698
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 4: I'm not happy with Stucky at all to saying that

699
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 4: we're doing that.

700
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 3: Didn't love a third bet that hadn't already been drafted.

701
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 3: Giants were on my radar, but I needed Locke to

702
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: be ruled in. I wasn't gonna, I would not. I

703
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 3: refuse to play to Vido. And then they said Locke's

704
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 3: gonna start around noon, which is nice, and then I

705
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 3: bet the Giants. So here we are. Who are the

706
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: Saints be lying five on the road against anybody the.

707
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 2: Opponent of the Giants. That's who they are. I don't

708
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: get it. Every week I see like sharp action on

709
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 2: the Giants. It's like, I just think this team is

710
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 2: tanking and and they're not. They're not trying to win,

711
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 2: and they're just I just don't think they care. But

712
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 2: I mean a.

713
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 3: Cowboys, they cared, they were they were trying. I also

714
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 3: think Locke is a big upgrade over to Vito. I

715
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 3: think de Vito is literally unplayable and Locke will you know,

716
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 3: they have extra rest and prep here. Lock will actually

717
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 3: know he's starting. He found out he was starting the

718
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 3: day before. So I think getting reps with the first

719
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 3: team offense is you know, over a week and a

720
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 3: half half they're already having some game action will be important. Plus,

721
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: you know, you know some Saints going on the road,

722
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 3: Dome team outdoors in December, Giants extra rest prep. You

723
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 3: know Locke's gonna start. He already has a game under

724
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 3: his belt. What do the Saints do, well, they don't

725
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 3: have Taysom Hill anymore. There's there's nothing that they can do.

726
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 2: Go touchdown, Derek Car throwing deep balls.

727
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 3: The Giants dexter Lawrence Hurts. Losing him. They could still

728
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: get some edge prushure which will help limit with Carr

729
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: can do. But losing Tasom Hill is just huge. Their receivers,

730
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 3: like the Giants corners are terrible. They can actually hang

731
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 3: with these Saints receivers, and I think that the Giants

732
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 3: can lean on the run game here. The Saints rundy

733
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 3: is horrendous. Their thirty first rush success rate. The secondary

734
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 3: is bad due to injuries in trading Latimore. They also

735
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 3: don't get pressure. That's huge for any Giants quarterback. But

736
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 3: I think they can just lean on Tracy here. I

737
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 3: just cannot get to this number for this bad Saints

738
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 3: team that basically had their season end last week drop

739
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 3: into four to eight. And the Giants, look, they haven't

740
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: been great, but they're scoring touchdowns in the redsdon't even

741
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 3: though they can. Tracy's pretty good forty two percent of

742
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: their trips, that's dead last. They've gone eleven straight games

743
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 3: without an interception. That's an NFL record. They have one

744
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 3: on the year. There's they've been extremely unlocky in the

745
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 3: turn of a department, especially on defense. One of these

746
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 3: tip balls of past defense is going to end up

747
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 3: intercepted eventually. It's been eleven games. They've also lost six

748
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 3: to one possession games seven if you count the SINCI game,

749
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 3: so they've been competitive. And yeah, I just I can't

750
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: get here with the Saints team lang five on the road. No,

751
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 3: Taysom Hill takes away a lot of the flexibility that

752
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 3: they have, which they needed because they don't have any

753
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 3: receivers and their offensive line is still bad. I think

754
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 3: they can pressure car and I think the Giants can

755
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 3: lean on the run game here, and this will be

756
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 3: a lower scoring game where I'm getting the Giants at

757
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 3: a premium because no one wants to bet them. And yeah,

758
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:44,280
Speaker 3: I like I like Locke a lot more than de Vito,

759
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: who'll uses I like how he uses legs last week.

760
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 3: But I just think getting more reps and against the

761
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: defense unlike the Cowboys that can't really get pressure. And

762
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,919
Speaker 3: I actually would take the Cowboys secondary in the form

763
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 3: that it was last time, then I would over the

764
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 3: this Saints secondary as it's currently constructed. So yeah, give

765
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 3: me the Giants at home catching five against whatever the

766
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 3: Saints team is.

767
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 2: I worry about this one, man. I just, first of all,

768
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 2: Lawrence is massive, because the Saints are are they look

769
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 2: like they're getting McCoy back, and so like their offensive

770
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 2: line shouldn't be bad anymore. Like there are guys are

771
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 2: playing well, but the Giants are also dad ass and

772
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: deep pass dv away and that's the one thing Derek

773
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 2: Carr has been good at and mvs there one receiver

774
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 2: has been good at.

775
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 4: Uh.

776
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 2: The Giants run defense is also gonna be horrible, just

777
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 2: like worse than the Saints now because you have no

778
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 2: Lawrence in the middle. They were already a bottom five

779
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: run dyep. So I think Tamara is still gonna be

780
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 2: able to run wide if.

781
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 3: There's no Taysom Hill, though, which makes it a lot

782
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 3: easier to defend.

783
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:57,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean sure, but it's Alvin Kamara is still

784
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 2: not bad like it's I just think I would, I

785
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 2: would need like a seven and a half, Like I

786
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 2: just don't. I don't. I just think there's little things

787
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 2: that I see with this giant team, like for example, uh,

788
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 2: you know, Darius Swayton didn't play much of the second

789
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 2: half two weeks ago, Hyatt played a bunch of snaps,

790
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 2: and then the next week, Uh you know, it looked

791
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 2: like it went back to normal, but it really didn't.

792
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 2: It was like a seventy thirty where it's usually like

793
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 2: a ninety five five split. So like they're playing not

794
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 2: they're playing players who aren't as good now like they're

795
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 2: at that point in the year. And I think the

796
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 2: Saints they're two games back of the division, like the

797
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 2: Falcons are cratering and the Bucks are the Bucks. So

798
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 2: four and eight, six and six, like they still there

799
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: are still a lot. So I just I don't trust

800
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:41,919
Speaker 2: the Giants here, man.

801
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 3: I think it's a lower scoring Giants and we able

802
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 3: to move the ball on the ground and uh and

803
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 3: stay in it.

804
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 2: I'd rather about the Jets. That's where. That's how that's

805
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 2: how much I hate the Giants. This is a let's

806
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 2: see our car six pack. We got so we got

807
00:43:55,239 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: eight and O'Connell, Drewock, Stafford Mahomes. You surround one thing.

808
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 2: You're surrounding Drew Locke with some all pro caliber tale

809
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 2: here and with the stafford of Mahomes. And then I

810
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 2: got O'Connell, Winston and Cable Williams. So yeah, we'll see

811
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 2: how it goes. That was our NFL Week fourteen Sunday

812
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 2: six pack. We got stucky as the Rams plus five Chiefs, Minds,

813
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 2: four Giants plus five. I got the Browns plus six

814
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 2: and a half, Raiders plus six and a half, Bears

815
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 2: plus four. Now it's time for our Week fourteen coaches

816
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 2: pep talk. Every time we get ready to play, I

817
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 2: just want to throw up.

818
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 3: How sick I'm watching you guys play?

819
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: Just how bad can it get?

820
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 4: All?

821
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 2: Right? This week's coaches pep talk comes to us from

822
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 2: Jeremy Irons in the twenty eleven film Margin Call, And

823
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 2: got to dedicate this to the New York what'd you

824
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 2: call him? Stucky? Kind of playing football giants?

825
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 3: Claim we played football?

826
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: Claim to claim the football giants because we're rough out there.

827
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 2: Hopefully they get a cover for you this week's start.

828
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 2: So best of luck to the New York claim to

829
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 2: play football giants.

830
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 4: Let me tell you something. Do you care to know

831
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 4: why I'm in this chair with you all? I mean,

832
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 4: why I earn the big box. I'm here for one

833
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 4: reason and one reason alone. I'm here to guess what

834
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 4: the music might do a week, a month, a year

835
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:29,720
Speaker 4: from now. That's it, nothing more. I'm standing here tonight.

836
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 4: I'm afraid that I don't hear a thing, just silence.

837
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 4: So now that we know the music will stopped, what

838
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 4: can we do about it? There are three ways to

839
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 4: make a living in this business. Be first, be smarter,

840
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,839
Speaker 4: or cheat. I don't cheat, And although I like to

841
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 4: think we have some pretty smart people in this building,

842
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 4: it sure is a hell of a lot easier to

843
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: just be first.

844
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our favorite total of the week.

845
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 2: You are a combine fifteen and eleven so far in

846
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 2: totals this year. Both missed last week. I started six

847
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 2: backs that you go first on the total, which you got.

848
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 3: We're going back to the well the Seahawks under. Seahawks

849
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 3: Cardinals under one of targets Seahawks unders the rest of

850
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 3: the season. Sad it didn't hit last week. It really

851
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: should have unbelievable amount of flukes to get there, and

852
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 3: it still almost went under with like three non offensive touchdowns.

853
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 3: Seahawks offense has been bad over the past five six weeks.

854
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 3: They just they can't get anything going consistently. I think

855
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 3: their defense is extremely underrated right now. They're healthy. McDonald

856
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 3: figured some things out over the by. He kind of

857
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 3: got the what he wanted at linebacker. Can't really run

858
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 3: on them at will anymore. I mean, the Jets did

859
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,760
Speaker 3: nothing last week in that game. And then I think

860
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 3: you also have a Cardinals defense that continues to be

861
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 3: underrated in the market. I mean, shockingly, they're third and

862
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 3: EPA per play since Week nine. They're top half the

863
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 3: league and DVA and against the run end pass. They're

864
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 3: just well schemed. And both these defenses are well schemed,

865
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:27,439
Speaker 3: well schooled. Second meeting here divisional games with a spread

866
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,399
Speaker 3: under seven by the way week fourteen or later, fifty

867
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,800
Speaker 3: eight percent to the under. They didn't even get to

868
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 3: thirty in the first meeting with a pick six, big

869
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 3: high stakes, big game here. I think this will be

870
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 3: played tighter to the vest. I think both defenses will

871
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,800
Speaker 3: be ready to go. Just got to avoid pick sixes,

872
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 3: which there was in the first one that still went under.

873
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 3: But yeah, I know this is on a faster track,

874
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 3: but I still like it. I think these are two

875
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 3: defenses that are still a bit undervalued in the market.

876
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 3: So give me Seahawks Cardinals under forty four and a half.

877
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been I think I talked a couple weeks

878
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,280
Speaker 2: ago about like the Seahawks probably be an under team.

879
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 2: The defense playing a lot better run defense, especially Ernest

880
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 2: Jones and those guys. And they're also it's kind of

881
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 2: been subtle, but they've switched to a more of a

882
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 2: two tight end offense, and what that does is that

883
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 2: just limits some of the explosiveness because they've they're taking

884
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 2: Locket off the field a lot more now so, and

885
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 2: they're targeting Smith and Jigba as their number one over

886
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 2: Metcalfs So that's just kind of taking away some of

887
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 2: the explosive element and trying to be a little bit

888
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 2: more efficient. But it's a little more dink and dunk.

889
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:45,760
Speaker 2: So that combined with their defense and their play volumes

890
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 2: going down, their pass rates down a little bit. So yeah,

891
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 2: the Seahawks have just kind of morphed into a little

892
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 2: bit more controlled team. Remember earlier in the year they

893
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 2: were just passing I think at the second highest rate

894
00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 2: over expectation behind the Bengals. So they've kind of that

895
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 2: down a little bit.

896
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they can do that because they can also

897
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 3: now rely on their defense, which is healthy, and play

898
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 3: more tight to the vest. So I more close to

899
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,439
Speaker 3: that saw it. Yeah, I like this under all.

900
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 2: Right, I'm going with the Falcons Vikings under forty six

901
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: and a half forty five and a half. I like

902
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 2: it as well. The Vikings are the number one defense

903
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 2: and DVA number two against the pass, number one against

904
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 2: the run. And this is Atlanta offense. You know, we

905
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: talked about it earlier. It's going downhill. Last four games,

906
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 2: one point five points per drive. That is not good.

907
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins has no touchdowns and six picks over his

908
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 2: last three games and He's thirtieth in touchdown rate against

909
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 2: the blitz, averaging under six yards in attempt against zone blitzes,

910
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 2: which we know the Vikings do a lot of. And

911
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:00,760
Speaker 2: I just think Cousins he had his mobilit he is sad.

912
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 2: So I mean, you he couldn't really get it going

913
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 2: against a charger team that just sits back in play

914
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 2: zone and you know he has thrown it to the

915
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 2: other team and just not really able to get it

916
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 2: in the end zone. Now you're gonna play a team

917
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 2: that like they're gonna bring pressure and you can't really move.

918
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: So it's either gonna be one of those situations where

919
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 2: you just get it out of your hand super early

920
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 2: and you're just throwing underneath all day, or you're probably

921
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 2: gonna just throw another couple of picks, just hopefully we

922
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 2: don't get another pick six. But I just don't see

923
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 2: much for this Atlanta offense. And another thing I noticed,

924
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 2: I don't know if you noticed, as tu stud, but

925
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 2: remember how we talked earlier in the year about Atlanta's

926
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: offense is very it's not multiple, like, it's very easy

927
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 2: to prepare for. They care they were coming out of

928
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,280
Speaker 2: the buy and I just felt like watching their play calls,

929
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 2: like they just didn't have anything like they like they

930
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 2: were like on third downs they would try like a

931
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 2: jet sweep with Drake London, or like they don't really

932
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 2: have any creative things to do because they're not really

933
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,399
Speaker 2: using Kyle Pits in it like a role because they

934
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 2: want the run blocking. But like their run plays are

935
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 2: kind of like you kind of know what they're gonna

936
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 2: do rushing wise, So and then Cousins can't move around.

937
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 2: You can't really move the pocket with him, So I

938
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 2: just think all the creativity is sad. Have you noticed

939
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:16,879
Speaker 2: that too, that Will went offense, because I thought coming

940
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 2: out of the buy they were just like the Chargers

941
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 2: were right on top of all their their playfuls, especially

942
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 2: on like money downs.

943
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, the shortyard of stuff was really bad for They

944
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 3: did a couple of fourth down misses and chef sweeps

945
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 3: that were infuriating. I mean they still move the ball

946
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: up and down the field, I mean with the three

947
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty total yards of offense. But yeah, there's

948
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 3: it's just not that creative. And the other thing that

949
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 3: you have worked for you is cool Will miss field

950
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 3: goals now.

951
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's not healthy and on the other side.

952
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know it was probably it could

953
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:51,359
Speaker 2: have been just a Charger thing. But I do think

954
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:56,280
Speaker 2: this this Viking offense is you know it, Sam Darnold

955
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 2: has been playing well, but he's also making some questionable

956
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 2: decay and we've seen him have these games where, uh,

957
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 2: you know, he just can't get it in the end zone.

958
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 2: And this is that kind of team where Atlanta they

959
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 2: play his zone covers as the third highest rate. Donald

960
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 2: has only a two point three touchdown rate versus zone,

961
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 2: eight point five percent versus man. So this is like,

962
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 2: I think the Vikings will move the ball, but it's

963
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 2: gonna be tougher to get it in the end zone.

964
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 2: You know, they're which kicker are they gonna have. They're

965
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 2: gonna have their Reikert coming off an injury, or they

966
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 2: gonna have Romo again who knows he finally missed the kicks.

967
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 2: So Unders four to one in Minnesota this year, I

968
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,320
Speaker 2: think even if Minnesota scores, you have an out because

969
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 2: the Falcons offense. You know, I wanted to bet the

970
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:41,359
Speaker 2: Falcon when I saw five and a half, I might

971
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 2: even get to six. You know, I was all right,

972
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 2: the Falcons, like they're not that bad talent wise, but

973
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 2: Cousins is just cratering. And this is I mean, we've

974
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 2: seen this with these older quarterbacks that don't want to

975
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 2: take hits and can't and aren't really mobile like Aaron Rodgers.

976
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: The Jets can't cover Cousins. We saw that even with

977
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 2: Tom Brady in his last year. So uh yeah, I

978
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 2: just don't want to. I'm selling the Falcons offense right

979
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 2: now until I see something from them, because they haven't

980
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 2: done anything in a month. So give me the under

981
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: in Falcons Vikings. No cheesser for us this week. Been

982
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:18,879
Speaker 2: a weird year for teasers where there's not a lot

983
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 2: of those Wong teasers where you can tease through the

984
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 2: three and the seven aka you know spreads in the

985
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 2: one to one to two and a half range. So

986
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 2: no teases for us this week. I will go straight

987
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 2: to our underdog money line par.

988
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 1: Late turning good weekends into great weekends.

989
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line Parlay.

990
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 2: I hit with Pittsburgh last week, so we're we have

991
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 2: seven combined hits on the year.

992
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 3: Let's go with the Jets. I just think this line

993
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:51,439
Speaker 3: is a bit too high. Who knows where the Jets

994
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 3: are at mentally, this is just like the It's still

995
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 3: a divisional game against the team that embarrassed them twice

996
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 3: last year. I think it's like good for them to

997
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 3: get away from home right now. So I think this

998
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 3: they'll show up here and then can Rogers move the

999
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 3: ball against the Dolphins? They're not going to play a

1000
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 3: lot of men. Jets can't do anything. Ita'st man. The

1001
00:54:14,560 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 3: Dolphins secondary is all beat up, so like, who are

1002
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 3: they even gonna have out there at corner? I'm not sure.

1003
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 3: And Jets defense, I mean, we'll see if Sauce Gardner

1004
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 3: can go. But getting relatively healthier, they can get some

1005
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 3: pressure still, So yeah, I just think this line is

1006
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 3: a bit too high. There's some injury uncertainty. So I'm

1007
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 3: gonna go with the Jets. Who amazing. I mean, look,

1008
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 3: I mean they they got blown out by the Cardinals.

1009
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 3: Other than that, I mean their losses are by three, one, five, three, six.

1010
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 3: I mean against good teams too. I mean you're talking

1011
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:56,839
Speaker 3: about all the playoff teams they faced. I mean, their

1012
00:54:56,840 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 3: schedule has been really tough. They beat the Texans, stayed

1013
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 3: lost by one to the Broncos, so yeah, they've been

1014
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 3: right there. Who knows what's going on with them mentally.

1015
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 3: But how do you say this? This is too high

1016
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:20,360
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty, divisional game. I'll take the Jets

1017
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 3: on the money line.

1018
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 2: And they actually showed some good coaching last week. I

1019
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 2: liked how they got you guys good. Well, yeah that too.

1020
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 2: I even mean like the like when I I saw

1021
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 2: them the trans I always look at the transaction wire

1022
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:36,800
Speaker 2: because I have to update all the projections and stuff.

1023
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 2: So I'm like, okay, they call up Tonay Wongu, what

1024
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:44,320
Speaker 2: does this mean? Like does it mean are they gonna

1025
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 2: inactivate Davis or cause I know Wang who's like more

1026
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 2: of a kick returner. And then but it seemed like

1027
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 2: they called up Wango to improve their kick returning but

1028
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 2: also get Davis involved in the offense. He caught a touchdown,

1029
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 2: Wang who scores a touchdown? So I gave the offense

1030
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,439
Speaker 2: got a little and the special team's got a little

1031
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 2: frisky there. So I mean, yeah, I thought about the Jets.

1032
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 2: I just yeah, it's just Saul Rodgers at this point.

1033
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 2: It's like it's he's is he in cousins territory or not?

1034
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 2: Because him and DeVante are struggle ling. But I think

1035
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 2: this is. I don't mind this at all because I

1036
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 2: think this is the way to play it. You know,

1037
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 2: just take the take the uncertainty, you get the plus

1038
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:25,239
Speaker 2: two twenty five payout if if they win the game,

1039
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 2: and you know, if not, it is what it is.

1040
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:32,319
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's been amazing. This NFL market has been

1041
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 3: so crazy. Sure, the Jets have taken money on game

1042
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 3: day where there's the limits are astronomical. Eight weeks, big,

1043
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 3: big money. I mean last week again, what did they

1044
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 3: get out to? They close too.

1045
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: This is the first time they're a underdog in seven weeks.

1046
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:52,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they take money every week and they're one

1047
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 3: in seven against the spread over that span. So I

1048
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:00,400
Speaker 3: think the bottom is now falling out. And give them

1049
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 3: as a dog at six and a half good on

1050
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 3: the money on so I'm gonna take a shot.

1051
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't mind this one. But I

1052
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 2: do think there is something too, the fact that I

1053
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 2: feel like the market has been just over value with

1054
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 2: these both New York teams all year. And I don't know,

1055
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 2: maybe it's because I follow them a little more. I mean,

1056
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 2: I follow every team, so I shouldn't it shouldn't feel

1057
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 2: like I followed them closer. But I just feel like,

1058
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 2: I don't know, all year, it just seems like, oh yeah,

1059
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 2: money's coming on the Giants, Like the Giants were with

1060
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 2: know Andrew Thomas. The Giants were plus three to the Eagles,

1061
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 2: even I know they were at home, but they stink

1062
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 2: at home. It's like, I just I just think the

1063
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 2: market's been over on the Giants, and the Jets have

1064
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 2: been favored for six straight weeks until now, but this

1065
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 2: is this is finally they were a dog. You have

1066
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 2: some margins, So yeah, I think this is the spot

1067
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 2: if you're going to back the Jets, and I'm gonna

1068
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 2: go with another team that I don't know if they're

1069
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:54,920
Speaker 2: gonna show up either. So like I kind of wanted

1070
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 2: to bet them on the spread because and it's the Jaguars.

1071
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 2: They are plus one sixty five, they're plus three and

1072
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 2: a half the Titans. I mean, the Titans should not

1073
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 2: be favored by more than a field goal against anybody,

1074
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 2: So it's kind of conflicting. But I just don't know

1075
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 2: if the Jags show up here. I mean, you know

1076
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,959
Speaker 2: you got your court, like you just got punked last week,

1077
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 2: and you know your quarterback got knocked out and it's

1078
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 2: all over the It's just a lot going on. But

1079
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:22,560
Speaker 2: now you gotta now you're going on the road. Mac

1080
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 2: Jones just could not hit him. I mean, he hit

1081
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:28,120
Speaker 2: so many inaccurate throws. He looked like I don't even

1082
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 2: I mean, it was bad. So it looked like Anthony

1083
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 2: Richardson out there. He was like what I call Richardson

1084
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 2: the black golf. Mac Jones is the white Anthony Richardson

1085
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 2: last week. So I don't know if he can I

1086
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 2: don't know if he could complete passes. And I don't

1087
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 2: know what was up with the Titans run dy last week.

1088
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 2: It just completely disappeared. I don't know if that was

1089
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 2: just a going on the road thing and wet down

1090
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: spot and now they'll be back again because it's the division.

1091
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 2: But I just think that this is just two bad

1092
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:59,320
Speaker 2: teams and it's a division game, so the Titans should

1093
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:02,880
Speaker 2: not be like this favored. So give me the Jags

1094
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:08,800
Speaker 2: plus one sixty five hopefully they show up. Is Camel playing, Yeah,

1095
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 2: who knows? I mean the Jaguars just gonna sit back

1096
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 2: in coverage now like they like, they just like completely flipped,

1097
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 2: like the early they were playing so aggressive. Now they

1098
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:20,320
Speaker 2: just kind of make these games like this ugly swag

1099
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 2: of a game on defense, they just sit back and

1100
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 2: too high.

1101
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 3: Now, but that's been pretty good though lately I will

1102
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 3: have to him credits top four yards per tempt, big

1103
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 3: time throw rates since returning seven touchdowns two interceptions, so

1104
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:37,080
Speaker 3: he has been better. I got nothing there though.

1105
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 2: Yeah it's not. It's just just it's just two bad teams.

1106
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 2: I mean, like Levis is better than mac Jones, I think,

1107
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 2: but he's probably more likely to turn it over and

1108
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 2: mac Jones is more likely to throw inaccurate passes. So

1109
00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 2: we'll see see what happens. But let's get into oh

1110
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 2: the parlay. So you got Jets plus t twenty five.

1111
00:59:56,720 --> 01:00:00,760
Speaker 2: We got Jags plus won sixty five the way odds

1112
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: would be plus seven sixty one. Now it's time for

1113
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 2: best of the rest the games. We did not discuss

1114
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 2: in any other segment that's gonna be a touchdown.

1115
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 3: But that made me mean equal to some of you.

1116
01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 2: Do you know what I mean? I looks like we

1117
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 2: just got one game left, and that is the Carolina Panthers,

1118
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:26,160
Speaker 2: who came through for you las week at the Philadelphia Eagles.

1119
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 2: Eagles savored by twelve. The total is forty six. I

1120
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,680
Speaker 2: like the Panthers, they are a lot better, but this

1121
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 2: is just this is just a tough matchup for them

1122
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 2: because they are their run defense is still bad and

1123
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:41,600
Speaker 2: the Eagles are the best running team in the league.

1124
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 2: So I don't want any part of this. What about you.

1125
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:47,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this line's a little too high because

1126
01:00:47,680 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 3: I think the market the Panthers are still undervalued in

1127
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 3: the market. Like their defense is better than people think

1128
01:00:53,880 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 3: because it got healthier overall, and it's still I do

1129
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 3: like their coordinator, so they're they're well schooled. They stilln't

1130
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:05,560
Speaker 3: have a ton of talent, but they're finally healthy like

1131
01:01:05,560 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 3: they were just I mean, it was bad earlier this year.

1132
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 3: And Bryce Young is playing significantly better at quarterback and

1133
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 3: he gets time in the pocket. His offensive line is

1134
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 3: playing well. He's got a good complimentary rushing attack feel

1135
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 3: in his back, which helps. By the way, another man

1136
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 3: last week was torture. How was that feeling? And the

1137
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 3: Panthers were one of the touchdown that not a touchdown

1138
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 3: They couldn't see it when he went to the ground

1139
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 3: or something like.

1140
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:37,760
Speaker 2: They essentially they blamed the replay angle like not the like, yeah,

1141
01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:40,600
Speaker 2: it was. It was ridiculous. The explanation was crazy.

1142
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 3: So but like you said, the Eagles defense is playing

1143
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 3: out of its mind right now. It's turn flip that

1144
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:57,480
Speaker 3: switch under Fangio. That Fangio bump is hit. And yeah,

1145
01:01:57,520 --> 01:01:59,959
Speaker 3: the Panthers, while their defense is improved, it's still bad.

1146
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 3: It's still not great at getting pressure, which you need

1147
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 3: and want to do against Hurts. And the Eagles are

1148
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:08,880
Speaker 3: going to be able to run it and then they're

1149
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 3: going to have a lead, and then they're just gonna

1150
01:02:11,240 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 3: be able to keep running it. And I don't know

1151
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 3: how the Panthers stop them. Yeah uh so, Yeah, but

1152
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 3: I don't want to late twel I don't want to

1153
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 3: lay twelve. It's also like a tricky spot for the Eagles.

1154
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 3: It's a tricky spot for both teams. Like the Panthers

1155
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 3: are obviously out of it, they're playing better. I expect

1156
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 3: them to show up here. But you just had, you know,

1157
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 3: heart back to back, heart breaking losses at home to

1158
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:36,680
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and of your division rival. Now you're going

1159
01:02:36,720 --> 01:02:38,720
Speaker 3: up to Philly and like you could get behind early,

1160
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 3: and it could it could just get ugly. But the

1161
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 3: Eagles also it's like you but they've been riding high.

1162
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 3: You know, they beat you beat your division rival to

1163
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:52,920
Speaker 3: take over first place. A couple of them, the Cowboys.

1164
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 3: You roll the Cowboys, then you go out west, you

1165
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 3: roll the Rams, and you go to Baltimore when it's

1166
01:02:56,520 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 3: an underdog. Now you come home before you know, Yeah,

1167
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 3: piped up game against the Steelers and the Commanders. Like

1168
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 3: I could see the Eagles being just flat and like

1169
01:03:07,640 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 3: making dumb mistakes because it's like the Panthers. And but

1170
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 3: then like, do you it's hard to make dumb mistakes?

1171
01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 3: Do you just run the ball? Yeah?

1172
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 2: Tacon bark is kind of a limited because like Jalen

1173
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:23,840
Speaker 2: Hurts has like what three turnovers the last over the

1174
01:03:23,920 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 2: last eight weeks. Just put the ball on bark they have.

1175
01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 2: It's something crazy like they've only run, you know, they've

1176
01:03:29,640 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 2: only passed on like twenty nine percent of their second

1177
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 2: half plays or something crazy like that. Over the last

1178
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 2: eight weeks. It's just been like, yeah, Saquon Barkley is

1179
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 2: just fool proofing this offense. But I don't know, he

1180
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 2: Hurts was making some dumb decisions.

1181
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 3: Yeah. But the other thing is that if I'm Philly,

1182
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:55,800
Speaker 3: am I kind of resting Barkley here, like not resting him, but.

1183
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:58,680
Speaker 2: Like casing that record. I don't think so, I mean like.

1184
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 3: Not resting, I mean like instead of giving him twenty

1185
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 3: six carries, right, like we give them eighteen, Like there's

1186
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:06,760
Speaker 3: bigger fish to fry.

1187
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:08,920
Speaker 2: I don't know, they give me team That probably means

1188
01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 2: they're up three four scores though that's like they because

1189
01:04:11,520 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 2: they that has happened a few times, but it's huge

1190
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:17,040
Speaker 2: because they're up. Like you know, he's so efficient, he's

1191
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 2: kind of taken like hurts it like he's hurting. He's hurting,

1192
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 2: hurts his fantasy value because he's just getting these long

1193
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 2: touchdowns so they can't even touch push it. He's scoring

1194
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:30,439
Speaker 2: from thirty twenty thirty forty yards out these days. So yeah,

1195
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:33,120
Speaker 2: I just want no parts. I mean I would lean

1196
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 2: Eagles covering if if I had a bet, but I don't,

1197
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 2: like you said, I don't want to weigh twelve and

1198
01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 2: what is probably the most let downiest spot of their schedule.

1199
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, nothing, nothing, all right. That is gonna do

1200
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:52,120
Speaker 2: it for us here on the Action Network podcast. Thank

1201
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 2: you for listening. You can hear more. I mean every

1202
01:04:54,520 --> 01:04:57,120
Speaker 2: week with my guy Sean Kerner coming off a couple

1203
01:04:57,160 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 2: of dual top ten projections accuracy weeks over the last couple,

1204
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 2: so congrusts appreciate it so and shouts to Sean as well,

1205
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:09,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, you can hear us. We're on the Fantasy

1206
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:12,000
Speaker 2: Flex podcast three times a week talking DFS player projections,

1207
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:16,080
Speaker 2: all that good stuff, and of course stuck on college

1208
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:20,200
Speaker 2: football big Bets on Campus. It's getting to be that

1209
01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 2: time of year pretty soon, about a month out from

1210
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:27,520
Speaker 2: bowl season and playoffs and all that stuff, so be

1211
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:30,160
Speaker 2: sure to tune into Big Bets on Campus. You can

1212
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:34,840
Speaker 2: find Stuck on X at Thucky too. I'm at Chris Raybond.

1213
01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 2: We're at those same handles on the free award winning

1214
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 2: Action Network app. So next time, let's get this money

1215
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:41,040
Speaker 2: let go.

1216
01:05:50,560 --> 01:05:55,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1217
01:05:55,120 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1218
01:05:57,920 --> 01:06:00,520
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one an eight hundred

1219
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:01,000
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