WEBVTT - TCW's Landmann: Good Time To Get Exposure If 10Yr UST Hits 2%, 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.599 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, I'm looking at 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:25.960 the ten year yield here one point seven one. There's 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.480 a lot of folks out there saying, hey, by year endy, 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:31.400 you need to be thinking about a two percent ten uere, 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:34.519 maybe even at two and a quarter percent tenure. Uh 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:36.760 in you know, the question is, you know, in the space, 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.239 in the face of what we're seeing is there's tremendous 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.960 physical stimulus looks like it's coming down the pipe with 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:46.599 President Biden's plan. Really, where do rates go? Let's check 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:49.680 in with Laird Landman. He's a co director for fixed 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:53.240 income at tc W. Little firm out in Los Angeles 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:56.280 for about two thirty five billion with a B and 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:58.959 assets under management. Laird, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:01.160 Love to get your your thoughts here. We had a 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:04.639 few weeks ago the tenure spiked one point six percent. 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:08.840 That got people's attention. We've drifted higher here. What's your 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.560 view of kind of where you think, uh, these treasury 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:15.400 rates go. Well, certainly we seem to be biased to 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:18.920 going higher here, but I do think we're reaching levels 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:22.360 as we approach two percent, where it's probably a reasonable 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:26.440 point you're thinking about getting exposure uh to rates if 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:28.200 you think about the amount of debt that we're going 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.080 to be issuing, which is I think pretty topical today 0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:33.479 as we talked about, you know, how this plan will 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:38.320 be financed, the Biden spending plan. Um, there certainly will 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:42.839 be I think a desire to keep rates low uh 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:44.840 in the US because you're gonna have to pay for 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:50.440 this over many many years. So if there's that demand 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:52.880 out there, what's been happening in the seven year auctions 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:56.440 this month and last month, Well, I don't think there's 0:01:56.480 --> 0:02:00.000 a demand for the rates. You're seeing foreign investors pulled back. 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.080 I think the demand right now is being filled by 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:05.960 the central banks. What I was suggesting was that I 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:09.880 do think that rates will hit a point around two percent, 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:11.840 maybe a little bit above that, where you're gonna be 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.239 want to want to get exposure to them because over 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.880 the long term. If you believe our central bank, if 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:20.640 you believe they're not going to overreact to short term 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:25.919 spikes uh in inflation numbers uh. And that's an I UM, 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:28.880 then I think you probably look at the long term 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:31.120 and those will be pretty good long term value. Do 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:36.079 you believe them? Do I believe them? Uh? I think 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.440 that they're going to have a real, real difficult time 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.160 reversing this policy. I mean, we're living today in a 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:45.280 world that is the mirror image of there's excessive access 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.600 reserves around, and we're seeing that reflected in repo rates 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.080 and short term rates. I think a hundred and five 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.480 billion dollars roughly was parked today in the FEDS reverse 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:58.520 repo program at earning a whopping zero percent um. And 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:01.840 you might remember when they tried to taper, what you 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.680 had was the exact opposite. You had excess reserves going down, 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.200 you had repro rate spiking in the marketplace. So I 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:12.160 think they have a great deal of difficulty, despite their rhetoric, 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:14.960 in reversing this policy. So I do tend to believe 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:18.840 that they're gonna They're gonna keep QUI going uh, and 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.240 they're probably going to keep rates low even if you 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:25.840 do see, uh, these supply um channel issues which are 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.640 going to be exacerbated by the Biden plan most likely 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:33.320 raise CPI numbers in the short term. All right, Larry, Larry, 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:35.960 if you do think, um, the Fed wants to keep 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:40.080 rates lower for longer, where are you and your teams 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:44.200 at TCW spending your time now looking for opportunities? Well, 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:46.920 we've been short on the duration side in terms of 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.680 our interest rate exposure for quite a while. Um, we've 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:52.920 been gradually as rates have gone up, cost averaging our 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:56.000 durations higher, which is part of our our fundamental value 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:58.760 based philosophy. So uh, if you if you if you 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:00.920 don't like something at one cent, when it gets to 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:05.600 two percent, you might like it a little bit more. Um. Likewise, Uh, 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:08.200 the Federal Reserve is generating what I would describe as 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:11.040 a bit of a free lunch in the forward market 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:14.280 for mortgages, the t b A market h so TCW 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.720 has found great value there. You're picking up anywhere from 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:21.320 seventy to a hundred basis points of additional yield by 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:24.960 rolling keb as right now. And that's really generated by 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:28.440 that arbitrage is generated by the Federal reserves. Desire to 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.960 continue to buy mortgages over time. So we saw this 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:34.560 in q E one, we saw it in QUE two, UH, 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:37.760 and so why not in QUI wherever we are today, UH, 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.960 continue to take that free lunch that they're providing. Does 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:45.600 QUI continue on forever? Well? I don't think it continues 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.800 on forever, But I think that the Central Bank, as 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:51.119 I said, is going to have a great deal of trouble. Uh. 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:52.839 You know, I think about the ship in this US 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:55.200 canal in terms of trying to turn around. I think 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.400 you have a lot of trouble freeing this barge uh 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.240 from the sand uh in turning it around. So I 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:04.120 think that this is going to exist for quite a while. 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:06.960 The FED believes that the lessons that they learned from 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.320 the past programs is they didn't go big enough for 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:12.120 long enough. So I think, you know, if you believe 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.360 that that was their conclusion, um, you have to believe 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:18.400 that this is going to continue into next year. So 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:21.320 I think for the foreseeable future, this is one of 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.560 the most attractive trades out there. He learn Let me 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.039 about thirty seconds here, love to get your thoughts on 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:30.800 credit quality as you look out across the vast portfolio 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:33.000 Trust Company of the West. Are we seeing cracks in 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:36.440 credit quality? It doesn't appear to be. No. I think 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.239 in this environment where the markets are wide open and 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:41.320 you can bring as many spacks as you want an 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:44.200 issue equity, um, I think it's hard to see the 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.960 cracks developing. There's certainly the foundation for those cracks to 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:51.280 develop is occurring with the over leveraging that's that's going on. 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:54.240 But you know, our our our our corporate team is 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.680 describing this is right now. We're in the dash for 0:05:56.760 --> 0:06:00.279 trash phase. So everyone's just trying to buy as much oldest, 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.200 say Kennon, and ignore credit quality. And so this is 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:06.080 a time when prudent investors want to start being becoming 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:09.640 a little bit a little bit careful. All right, great 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:11.640 insight from you, Laird, and I hope we can get 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:13.600 you back on the program again because it's been wonderful 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.080 talking to you. Laird Landman is the co director for 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:18.800 Fixed Income at the Trust Company of the West. At 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:23.200 tc W A I would say, a famed name in 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.200 terms of fixed income. So it's great to hear from impol. Yeah, 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:28.160 when you go at to Los Angeles to visit investors, 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:31.080 as I did, for close to thirty years. Capital Group 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.160 and tc W are your anchor meetings. Those are the 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:37.040 ones you got to see. Absolutely cool then that we 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.440 get to talk to him, and I was bringing Nathan 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.039 chet He is the chief economist and head of macro 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:47.080 research for PGIM fixed Income. They have basically a trillion 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:49.680 dollars under management. But he also served as the Under 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:53.360 Secretary of the U. S. Treasury for International Affairs under 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:59.400 President Obama. So basically, um, he has the chops to talk. Uh. 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:03.200 This Iiden's spending plan. Nathan, thanks so much for joining us. 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:06.200 What do you think about the two point to five 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:11.520 trillion dollar plan? Is it enough? Well? I think it 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:16.040 is a significant step forward. What's clear is that the 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:23.920 country has a very substantial infrastructure by deficit that over 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:28.480 uh the last let's say ten or fifteen years, there's 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:33.400 been broad agreement amongst Republicans and Democrats that we needed 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.800 to do more on infrastructure, but they just weren't able 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:40.080 to find a formula to get it done. And it 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:44.720 looks like that the Joe Biden, notwithstanding is very narrow 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:50.400 majorities in Congress, is finding a formula and uh putting 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:54.160 forward a significant package, whether it goes all the way 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:57.440 to addressing our infrastructure needs. I doubt it, but it's 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:02.160 certainly a significant step forward. So two point two five trillion, 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:04.320 We've we've heard numbers that were even higher than that, 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:06.559 but again, this seems to be a number that maybe 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:08.560 you can get some support here, Nathan, What is this 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:12.160 a fiscal stimulus of this magnitude? What does it mean 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:18.320 for your economic outlook? So? I think an important point 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:22.600 to bear in mind is that, unlike the stimulus that 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:26.120 was passed earlier this year at one point nine trillion, 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:29.280 this two and a quarter trillion is likely to be 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:34.640 phased quite evenly over a number of years. The estimates 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:37.520 I've heard is UH up to up to eight years. 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:41.920 So it's a more gradual kind of effect on the 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:45.800 demand side. Now, if a program like this works, it 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.360 will have a little bit of lift on demand, but 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:52.160 it should also help make the supply side of the 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:57.440 economy more efficient and could UH could have UH some 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:03.679 imprint in terms of raising potential growth and UH the 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:09.120 economy's capacity to be able to produce. So it is 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:12.920 an eight year plan. Six and twenty billion goes to transportation, 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:18.360 SID fifty billion for clean water, high speed broadband, things 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:22.240 that make your life easier at home or safer acceptedly 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:27.720 safe billion for American manufacturing, of which a hundred eighty 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:30.920 billion UH is said to be the biggest non defense 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:34.760 research and development program on record, and four hundred billion 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:38.400 to go for more care to the elderly and the disabled. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:44.040 What's next, what's left to do? Nathan? Well, my sense 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:48.840 is that there will be likely another package that the 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:52.200 administration is going to put forward that is going to 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:59.520 be more focused on uh, domestic spending, more social kind 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:02.000 of Paul, let's see, and I think there were likely 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:07.520 to see a focus on education, on childcare, and other 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:13.439 other kinds of spending, perhaps healthcare as well, that the 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:18.960 administration will view as important steps in investing in people 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:23.720 and helping to make the population more productive. So I 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:27.360 think that that is that's the next the next chapter 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:31.319 in what Biden is likely to be announcing. All Right, Nathan, 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.360 somebody's got to pay for all these spending programs, as 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.679 Matches laid out. Talk to us about the the tax 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:41.880 policy of the tax potential changes in tax policy of 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:46.160 the Biden administration. Well, I think the tax side of 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:52.440 this is likely to be extremely controversial. First of all, 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.640 Mitch McConnell and the Republicans have made clear that they 0:10:56.640 --> 0:11:00.560 will not vote for any tax increases. So to the 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.400 extent that the tax increases are included, and I think 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.040 they will be, it means that Democrats are going to 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:10.840 have to do it on their own and via reconciliation. Now, 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:15.720 I think within the Democratic Party, a increase in the 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:19.600 corporate tax rate from twenty one percent. Maybe they won't 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:23.160 get all the way to twenty eight percent, but maybe 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:28.199 twenty is something that Democrats will will sign on to. 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:33.319 Nathan later, Nathan, as someone who worked in government, why 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:37.280 can't they just try to shut loopholes and get rid 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.280 of deductions? I mean, everybody says the answer is lawyers 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.960 and lobbyists. Why not go after that and try and 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:46.520 get more money out of you know, what we already 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.480 should be paying. I think that there are broadly speaking, 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:54.160 two ways to do that, and I think that uh 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:58.240 various proposals from the Biden administration are likely to pursue 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:02.240 both of them. One is to improve the quality of 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:06.920 enforcement of our existing tax laws. So are people dodging 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.800 the expectations of what's already on the books, and they're 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:17.040 allocating they will allocate likely substantial sums UH to support 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:20.599 the I R S in its in its enforcement efforts. 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.880 The second is to address some of these loopholes that 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.200 are perceived as unfair, and I think that we will 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:31.120 see them take those steps. And those are also measures 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:34.440 that will be quite popular amongst Democrats and frankly amongst 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:38.080 some Republicans as well. Right, hey, Nathan, thanks so much 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.640 for joining us here. We really appreciate your thoughts. Nathan Sheets, 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:46.600 chief economists at Teaching Fixed Income based in Newark, New Jersey, 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.240 giving us his thoughts on what's likely to be a 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:53.160 two point two five trillion dollar fiscal stimulus plan to 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:59.720 be announced today. Probably President uh Biden focusing on infrastructure 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.040 is going to be the big issue. Matt. It's not 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.880 just simply cash into individual's pockets to deal with a pandemic. 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:09.120 This is something that is a longer term, forward thinking 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:17.600 pandemic or fiscal stimulus aimed at infrastructure. I this morning 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.319 in our Bloomberg pantry here in the office, I picked 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:28.840 up a package of shocks bio Cannabis Power brand granola bars. Now, yeah, 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:33.280 I haven't eaten them yet, but they don't have actual 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:35.719 THC and them. I love to go back, and they're not. 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:38.800 Really it's not amsterdamn You're in Berlin, not amer That's right, 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:42.120 I'm in Berlin. It's not legal here. I mean, cops 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:44.800 turn the other way if you're smoking a joint in 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:48.200 the park, I've heard. But in New York soon you 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.080 will be able to, I guess, smoke a joint in 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:53.240 the park and get cannabis power granola bars that really 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.199 have th HC in them. Kisha Clukey joins us New 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:59.640 York correspondent for Bloomberg Government out of Albany because the 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:04.200 govern in her has just signed the weed bill. Keisha, Yes, yes, 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.720 it's a it's official. Uh is coming to New York State. 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.400 We're going to be the second largest market in the 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.800 nation for legal marijuana. Alright, Keisha, what's the I'm sure 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:18.120 there was an economic argument. We're Bloomberg here, we think money, 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:22.600 we think markets. What's the economic argument for legalizing marijuana 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:26.000 at the state level. Yeah, and and of course the 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:29.160 argument is is intertwined with a whole bunch of things, 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.440 you know, criminal justice issues as well. Um, but this 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.520 is looking to bring in about three fifty million dollars 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.480 a year once it's fully rolled out in just packed 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.280 revenue for the state, and then on top of that, 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.600 UM the total amount of four point two billion dollars 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.280 in sales is the projection once it's fully fully rolled out, 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.880 as well as tens of thousands of jobs. So I 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.040 was recently chatting with a credit trader here on the 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:59.600 Bloomberg terminal who estimates about of his adult friends smoke 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:03.120 weed or you know, eat gummies or whatever. Do you 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:10.200 really think, Keisha, that that many people use THHC products? Yeah, yes, 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.720 I think so. I mean, we already have medical marijuana 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:17.120 in the state, and this legislation expands the medical marijuana program, 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:19.960 and it also allows for home grow UM. And then 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:22.120 it has this other side to it, which is the 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.680 recreational side. And I think there's been a lot of 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.960 study showing people from New York State going to the 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:32.560 states surrounding us. Uh, you know, Massachusetts is very popular 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.480 to get these products. So now we're keeping the money 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.720 for ourselves, or we will once it's rolled out. So 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:41.640 what's the sense of time in Kisha. I'm here in 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:47.720 New Jersey and the New Jersey legalized UM marijuana months ago, 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:49.920 but I don't think it's even available yet. I'm just 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:51.560 not sure the timing here. Do we have any sense 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:54.680 of when we're gonna see you know, smoke shops and 0:15:55.120 --> 0:16:00.400 edible cafes, you know on Broadway on. I mean a 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:02.960 lot is gonna depend on the regulations. They still have 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.680 to set up the Office of Cannabis and a Cannabis 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.640 Board to talk about licensing and figure out how many 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:12.680 dispensaries will be allowed, where they would be located. UM. 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.960 The lawmakers, of course New York is very competitive, especially 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:18.680 with New Jersey, and they're saying, we can walk and 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.640 chew gum at the same time. Let's have it up 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.600 by next year. So they're hoping to have the first 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:28.080 licenses out by at some point in two although, of 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.920 course again that depends on on how fast they get 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.600 these regulations in place. So what about farming, I mean, 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.360 I assume that we're not getting all this stuff from 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:40.400 Humble County on the other side of the country. UM, 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.200 it's not being flown in from Jamaica. Are they gonna 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:47.200 Are there gonna be big weed farms um in western 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:52.800 New York. UM that could be a potential UM. The 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.880 legislation provides for um AID to help farmers, start up 0:16:56.960 --> 0:17:00.640 businesses I suppose to be canvas growers and station in 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:03.640 the state. They're really excited. A lot of farms already 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:07.720 have hence farming and produce DBD products, so they're already 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:11.399 in a position to not only plant these uh, these 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.280 weed plants, but also you know, get them out the 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:17.640 door and get them to processing plants or processing them 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:21.600 themselves so that they can get them to distributors. Kisha, 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:24.200 how much what kind of support did this have up 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:27.080 in Albany? Was a bipartisan support? Was it? You know, 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:31.960 along party lines? How broad is the support for this? Well, 0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:34.280 it's been a long time in the making. Um, I 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:38.760 think one lawmaker isn't pushing it for eight years. So um, 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:41.040 over the years, it's it's gained some support. And the 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.480 final deal did end up passing in the state legislature 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.960 very late last night, a largely along party lines, although 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:51.919 there were some Democrats who sided um with the Republicans 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:55.199 against the bill. UM. And then their concerns were, you know, 0:17:55.320 --> 0:18:00.000 operating machinery under the influence that work UM issues really 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.800 it into driving and traffic stacy and there's a lot 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:08.479 that still need yeah, yeah, exactly, And also you know, 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.280 how can you tell whether or not someone is under 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.199 the influence um immediately while driving? Did they smoke you know, 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:18.159 days before, was it right before? Was it while they 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:20.639 were driving? Um? So there's gonna be a lot of 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.879 these details that will work out. This is just the 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:27.720 basic framework for the legislation. All right, Keisha, thank you 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:32.760 so much. We appreciate that, Kisha Kluky for Bloomberg giving 0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.920 us her sense here of the law that just signed 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:41.040 into or signed into law legalizing marijuana in the state 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:46.960 of New York. That's big for the industry. I saw 0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:53.200 a story cross the Terminal earlier about Fiser's vaccine Paul, 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.440 which says that teens who take it and I guess 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.800 twelve to fifteen is the age range here, it was 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.280 a hundred percent effective in a final stage trial. That's 0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:06.200 a big number. This is huge, Uh, you know, Matt, 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:09.080 because I've been saying, you know, I'm all, I'm all psite. 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:11.040 I got my first shot last weekend. I'm gonna get 0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:12.919 my second one in a few weeks, and you know, 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.320 and and vaccinations here thankfully are ramping up with The 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:20.760 big big issue for me is getting kids fully back 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:25.640 into school next fall. Full after school activities, full athletics 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:28.400 back to you. Enough of those kids, you want them 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:31.320 gone from seven o'clock in the morning exact, coming home 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:34.440 until nine exactly right, and none of this virtual, none 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:36.080 of this. You know, I understand why we're doing it. 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:38.520 Obviously in many districts have done a great job. But 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:40.119 let's get the kids back to school. And then it 0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:42.639 appears when you start to see some of this data 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.560 coming out from some of these pharmaceutical companies, Matt that um, 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.600 you know, it's more and more likely every day that 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:49.399 we're going to get there. You know, it would be 0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:51.879 great is if you could get your kids into the 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:56.200 Goldman Sachs Analyst training program exactly, you'd never see him again, 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:58.320 you know, yeah, exactly what you know, I did that 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:01.840 back in the day, and U you know what was 0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:05.399 different there, you know I was doing weeks uh. And 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:08.200 but what was different then is we were all together 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:11.120 in the office. We had that sense of camaraderie. Um. 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.040 And but it's really I can see how could be 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:16.359 really difficult here, uh, with this whole virtual thing. You're 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.160 stuck in your apartment somewhere and you're grinding it out 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:21.320 and you don't have the support of your fellows, you know, 0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.080 analysts that are also going through it, so I can 0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:26.119 see what's going on there for those folks. That's a 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:28.399 that's a good point I want to get, just to 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.440 get back to the vaccines. I'm getting more and more 0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:34.000 terrified about astra zeneca. I know, we talked about it 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.240 a lot, and we've decided, you know, we'll take any 0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.760 shot they give us because we're good citizens, because you know, 0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:42.359 we want to be yep uh, participants in in the 0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:46.919 healthy global economy. But Germany yesterday said, all right, you 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:50.200 know what, no one under sixty gets the astros enneca shot. 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:52.800 Previously they said no one over sixty five, So the 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:55.880 window is getting smaller and smaller. They found thirty one 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:59.920 cases of blood clots in nine cases leading to day 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:04.439 fs UM, and some were people who were only twenty 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:07.919 years old. You don't want to walk into you know, 0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:11.480 a doctor's office in your twenties to get a vaccine 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:13.919 that you think is gonna you know, make you not 0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:17.280 get COVID and then die of an embolism. That's like, 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.000 that's very very Let's go to the expert. Let's bring 0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:24.360 in an expert. Matt Sam Fazelli. He's a senior pharmaceutical analysts. 0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:27.080 He's also a head of a research for Bloomberg Intelligence 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:29.080 in Europe. And Sam knows all about this stuff. He's 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.600 got a PhD in something that I think is somewhat related. Sam, 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.879 let's start with the astro Zeneca. What do we know. 0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:39.399 There's so much misinformation or just I guess cross currents 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:42.679 of information out there. What's your sense of this astro 0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:46.920 Zeneca vaccination. Yeah, Hi, Paul, So I think I would 0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:48.679 call it cross currents some was a good phrase they 0:21:48.760 --> 0:21:53.399 use their misinformation or confusing information. So what I'd like 0:21:53.480 --> 0:21:57.680 to do is to run with the one country that 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:00.439 has been very clear about the numbers, etcetera. Come out with, 0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.879 and that's the pool Earlier institute in Germany. They're now 0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:10.000 talking about thirty one cases temporarily associated with the vaccination dose. 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:12.440 And then when you start looking at those numbers, now 0:22:12.600 --> 0:22:16.720 thirty one cases over about two months of vaccinating out 0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:19.920 of two point seven million doses. That calculates to something 0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:23.560 in the region of a sixty eight or seventy roughly 0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:29.639 um cases per annum per million, And that is higher 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:32.360 than any other estimate that I've seen for the natural 0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:35.240 number of cases here. So so we're now in the 0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:40.119 realms that that that a serious institution has talked about 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:42.840 numbers that they have adjudicated and they think I might 0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:47.240 be related. I think everyone needs to seriously Look. I 0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:50.800 get what you're saying, and I don't play the Loto 0:22:50.840 --> 0:22:53.280 because I don't think there's any chance that I would win. 0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:56.240 But at the same time, if I'm in my twenties, 0:22:57.359 --> 0:22:59.960 I want my chances of dying from a blood class 0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:03.679 temporarily related to a vaccine to be zero, you know, 0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:07.960 to be none. I don't. I don't care if two 0:23:08.000 --> 0:23:10.879 point seven million people got it and we're fine. I 0:23:10.920 --> 0:23:12.639 don't want to be the one person that gets a 0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:17.320 blood clot and dies. And if there's any causation, I 0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:22.000 think it's a hard cell. Sam, You're right. Unfortunately, people 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:26.160 don't get vaccinated just for themselves. Um. The reason vaccines 0:23:26.160 --> 0:23:30.960