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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Hello, and welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host Sean Zerrilla, joined today by Billy Ward.

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Speaker 2: In today's episode, we'll be looking at this weekend's UFC card,

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Speaker 2: giving your best bets, our favorite underdogs, top props and more.

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Speaker 2: And if you'd like to tail some of the bets

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Speaker 2: that we discussed today, make sure to find the quick

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Speaker 2: slip link in the podcast and video description or go

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Speaker 2: to actionnetwork dot com slash bet now eleven fight card

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Speaker 2: from Rial Saudi Arabia. Prelimbs start early nine am Eastern.

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Speaker 2: Just make sure to get those bets in on Friday nights.

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Speaker 2: Don't have to wake up early on Saturday morning before

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Speaker 2: the card starts. Main event Israel Adasandia minus won sixty

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Speaker 2: naserdine AMVV plus one thirty five. This fight is minus

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Speaker 2: one eighty five to go to a decision five round

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Speaker 2: fight plus one forty to end inside the distance. Billy

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Speaker 2: and I both taking the underdog A Mavov at about

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Speaker 2: plus one forty eight current numbers. He is the shorter fighter.

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Speaker 2: He's at a reach discrepancy. Is he a five inch

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Speaker 2: reach advantage? There's an age gap between these two of

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Speaker 2: about six years. Is he thirty five? Knockdown or wobbled

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Speaker 2: in each of his past four fights, lost three of

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Speaker 2: those four bouts. This is his first non title bout

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Speaker 2: in thirteen fights, So title fight after title fight, facing

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Speaker 2: the highest level competition in the division, taking a slight

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Speaker 2: step back to a mav of here mav OFV taking

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Speaker 2: a step up in competition relative to their previous opponents.

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Speaker 2: The biggest difference when you look at their fight history

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Speaker 2: is the statistics. Is the amount of time either spend

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Speaker 2: at distance. Throughout his career, he has spent about eighty

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Speaker 2: five percent of his octagon time at distance. He's outstruck

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Speaker 2: his opponents by one strike permitted. Imavav has spent about

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Speaker 2: fifty three percent of his octagon time at distance, forty

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Speaker 2: seven percent grappling, and he's only outlanted his opponent by

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Speaker 2: half a strike. Permittent I said that reach discrepancy exists,

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Speaker 2: but amavav is going to pressure is he, and he's

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Speaker 2: going to force him back against the cage. He's going

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Speaker 2: to pump out that jab and I think he's going

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Speaker 2: to create problems with that pressure. Is he much better

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Speaker 2: fighting on the front foot being able to dictate with

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Speaker 2: those low kicks if you pressure him, if you take

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Speaker 2: away that space, he's not quite as effective with his

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Speaker 2: back up against the fence. And then on top of that,

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Speaker 2: Imavov retains all of the grappling upside in this matchup

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Speaker 2: as well. Is he choked out in his last fight

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Speaker 2: by Dricus du Plessi. I think mixing the strikling and

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Speaker 2: the striking and the grappling together is how you frustrate

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Speaker 2: out of Sonya, how you stay competitive in fights against them,

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Speaker 2: and the biggest mismatch that there might be in skill

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Speaker 2: relative from one fight or to the this fight. Is

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Speaker 2: Imavov's top game and is he's bottom game? I think

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Speaker 2: is he has a good first layer takedown defense. He's

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Speaker 2: denied about seventy five percent of takedown attempts throughout his career.

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Speaker 2: But once you put him on bottom, I think Amavov

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Speaker 2: can possibly keep him there and potentially finish the fight.

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Speaker 2: Is he when he stands up also as a poor

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Speaker 2: tendency to give his back as well, So I think

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Speaker 2: Imavov could get a back take in this fight too,

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Speaker 2: so full grappling upside at plus money taking a fighter

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Speaker 2: I think maybe the more durable of the two athletes.

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Speaker 3: At the stage of their respective careers.

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Speaker 2: And then on top of that, I think it's worth

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Speaker 2: noting Amavov had cardio concerns earlier in his career, went

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Speaker 2: to a different camp, moved out of Fight Factory Paris,

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Speaker 2: and went over to Henry Hooft last year, and we've

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Speaker 2: seen some improvements from him since switching camps and training

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Speaker 2: in the United States. So a Mavov on the money

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Speaker 2: line plus one forty by decision at plus three ten,

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Speaker 2: I would bet that down to about plus two to

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Speaker 2: fifty and the money line I like plus one twenty

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Speaker 2: or better. Billy, do you have a price target for

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Speaker 2: a mob of And anything I missed in terms of

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Speaker 2: analysis for Saturdays made event.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I was really glad you hit on the cardio

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Speaker 4: angle because that's the biggest thing that stood out to

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Speaker 4: me is he's gotten more five round experience. Lately. He's

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Speaker 4: looked decent to slightly above average in those situations on

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Speaker 4: the stretch, and when is he is forced to grapple,

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Speaker 4: he looks a little bit tired. I think DDP kind

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Speaker 4: of laid out the blueprint for how a fighter like

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Speaker 4: a Movov can win this fight, because if you looked

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Speaker 4: at the rounds where Adasanya either had to defend takedowns

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Speaker 4: or work his way back up, he was noticeably slower.

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Speaker 4: After getting back up, he was noticeably a step behind.

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Speaker 4: Where in that first round when they just struck it

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Speaker 4: out is he looked great, He looked sharp, you know,

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Speaker 4: he looked like his classicself. I'm not saying a mov

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Speaker 4: Off has the physical tools that DDP has, but in

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Speaker 4: terms of technique he might be the better pure wrestler grappler,

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Speaker 4: however you want to phrase that. And he also has

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Speaker 4: the you know, level of kickboxing that if he can

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Speaker 4: diminish out of Sonya a little bit, he can in

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Speaker 4: some striking has changes. I would not pick him Avov

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Speaker 4: to beat him striking if they're wearing big gloves and

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Speaker 4: you weren't allowed to grapple. But can him evolve beat

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Speaker 4: him striking after wearing on him for two minutes on

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Speaker 4: the ground, forcing him to defend takedowns, giving him other

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Speaker 4: things to think about. I think he can. So that's

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Speaker 4: the way I'm viewing it. I'm glad we're aligned on that.

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Speaker 4: The age difference obviously matters at this point. It's a

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Speaker 4: heavier weight class, so we don't worry about it as much.

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Speaker 4: But if he fights like a lighter fighter, he doesn't

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Speaker 4: use a lot of strength and power. He uses reflexes

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Speaker 4: and speed and timing, all those things that tend to

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Speaker 4: diminish quicker, especially as you take more damage and get

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Speaker 4: deeper into your career. So, to answer your question more directly, finally,

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Speaker 4: I'd say anywhere about plus one twenty or so I

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Speaker 4: would take Imovov. I like the decision angle. The only

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Speaker 4: thing that worries me is, as you pointed out, a

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Speaker 4: Designia has been rocked lately. We don't know how durable

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Speaker 4: he is at this point in his career. He said

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Speaker 4: he was going to take a few years off, didn't

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Speaker 4: really do that, and has been pretty busy since coming back.

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Speaker 4: So if that worries me a little bit too. I

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Speaker 4: like the bet though, Like I'm not trying to poopoo

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Speaker 4: it too much. I just think the plus one forty

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Speaker 4: or so is enough for me to get on that

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Speaker 4: and let it ride.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to fight to the night.

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Speaker 2: Michael Ven and Page about plus one sixty five against

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Speaker 2: Sharah maga Metov minus two hundred. This fight the same

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Speaker 2: price in the Ghost to Distance versus ends inside the

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Speaker 2: Distance market as the main event minus one eighty five

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Speaker 2: GTD plus one forty ns ITTD. But three round fight

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Speaker 2: as opposed to a five round fight. Think that might

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Speaker 2: be a decent price on the Ghost to decision. Not

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Speaker 2: betting it, though, I'm waiting for Page by decision A

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Speaker 2: plus three hundred, which just popped up at FANDEL, so

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Speaker 2: I'll probably end up poking that, or I'd want Page

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Speaker 2: on the money line at plus one seventy five.

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Speaker 3: I'm not super eager to play that, however.

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Speaker 2: If anything, I just like the decision prop as a

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Speaker 2: small poke, given the fact that this is likely to

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Speaker 2: be a competitive striking matchup, because neither fighter is likely

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Speaker 2: to grapple. If anybody's likely to grapple, it is MVP.

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Speaker 3: MVP.

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Speaker 2: He has a six inch reach advantage here, though, and

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Speaker 2: he may have this speed advantage coming up from one

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Speaker 2: seventy to one eighty five. But that said, on the

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Speaker 2: other end, Shara should have a severe power advantage against

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Speaker 2: a lighter, smaller opponent, and I think that power edge

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Speaker 2: ultimately proves the difference on the scorecards with the judges,

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Speaker 2: so Page of potential value trap. Given the stylistic nature

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Speaker 2: of this fight, I might I don't like him, or

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Speaker 2: I should say I don't mind him by decision at

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Speaker 2: plus three hundred, probably staying away from the money line, Billy,

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Speaker 2: I think we'd agree that Shara has more finishing upside

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Speaker 2: in this fight, more dominant decision winning upside in this fight.

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Speaker 2: I think if Page wins a decision, it's likely a

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Speaker 2: twenty nine to twenty eight, or one of the rounds

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Speaker 2: that he wins is probably a toss up. I doubt

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Speaker 2: he wins a clear decision here. I think Shara likelier

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Speaker 2: to win a clear decision or win by finish. So

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Speaker 2: you're taking Shara minus three and a half at plus

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Speaker 2: one ten and people can find your fullth breakdown to

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Speaker 2: this fight up on Action hour dot com.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so that comes with a bit of a caveat.

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Speaker 4: When I wrote that you could still get Shara bullet

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Speaker 4: at minus one seventy, which I liked, I think I

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Speaker 4: put in the article I'd take to minus one seventy

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Speaker 4: five or something. I don't love the minus three and

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Speaker 4: a half just because even when Page looks bad, he

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Speaker 4: tends to have like a round in there where he

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Speaker 4: did something flashy and sway some judges. With all that said,

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Speaker 4: this place is in Saudi Arabia. Shara's last name is

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Speaker 4: Mago Metov. There's a chance some of these scorecards have

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Speaker 4: already been filled out as we speak Friday afternoon. So like,

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Speaker 4: I don't know that the judges actually give Page rounds

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Speaker 4: he wins unless they are extremely clear. I also don't

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Speaker 4: like that he's coming up to middleweight. Not I don't

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Speaker 4: hate that in and of itself, but he's came out

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Speaker 4: in interviews and said he wants to go chase the

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Speaker 4: one seventy ballot. He plans on being a welterweight. He's

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Speaker 4: just doing this as a one off thing, which means

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Speaker 4: he's probably not put on the size you know where

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Speaker 4: he's gonna be able to compete with strength older guys

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Speaker 4: going up in a weight class. As a rule, I

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Speaker 4: love if you're gonna stay, but if you're doing this

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Speaker 4: up and down thing, it typically doesn't work out as well.

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Speaker 4: The other thing that really stood out breaking down this

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Speaker 4: tape is the first three fights for shar Bullet in

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Speaker 4: the UFC. He was pressing the action. He was taking

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Speaker 4: it to guys, looked great. Cool. You don't want to

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Speaker 4: do that against MVP because his counter striking is ridiculous.

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Speaker 4: It's hard to hit. His footworks all over the place.

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Speaker 4: But then when he fought armand Petrosian, everyone remembers the

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Speaker 4: double spinning backfist knockout, but it was a heavy counter

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Speaker 4: attack based approach for shar Bullet. There. He did a

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Speaker 4: really good job of winning Petrosi and leaped in using

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Speaker 4: that lead leg kick or the lead sidekick to the body.

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Speaker 4: If you watch Michael Page, he's jumping forward all the time.

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Speaker 4: He's going to be really open for those sidekicks. And

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Speaker 4: also his wide stance makes them pretty open to leg kicks,

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Speaker 4: which will then slow down his movement. Those are the

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Speaker 4: things that I saw that made me feel better about

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Speaker 4: Shara Bullet. The last thing, this is kind of theoretical.

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Speaker 4: If you had to pick one of them in a

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Speaker 4: grappling match, it'd be the dude named Magametov from Dagastan.

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Speaker 4: Even though we haven't seen him grapple yet. Could he

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Speaker 4: put Page on his back and get a takedown here.

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Speaker 4: It wouldn't shock me. And much like we were talking

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Speaker 4: about with at Asnia, because Page is a similar style fighter.

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Speaker 4: I don't know that Malcolmatov's going to dominate him on

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Speaker 4: the ground or anything. Take him down once, make him

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Speaker 4: think about it, make him carry your weight, especially as

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Speaker 4: the smaller fighter could pay some dividends. Again, don't know

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Speaker 4: that he'll do that. Don't have a ton of faith

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Speaker 4: in that, which is why I'm not taking him at

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Speaker 4: minus one eighty five and cut it off. But I

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Speaker 4: think if I had to bet it now, I'm pretty

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Speaker 4: confident in the minus three and a half, just because

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Speaker 4: he should, as you pointed out, be more likely to

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Speaker 4: win the clear decisions, and I think anything even remotely

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Speaker 4: contested is going to go to shar bullets. So given

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Speaker 4: the location of the fight and all those other factors,

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Speaker 4: I don't hate the minus three and a half. Ideally

218
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Speaker 4: we would have got in earlier on the money line though,

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Speaker 4: if you haven't met it yet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, even that Protrosion fight, Sharah outlanded by thirteen strikes

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Speaker 2: in round one and still got the round scored in

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Speaker 2: his favor. I think he landed the most significant strike

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Speaker 2: of the round. I think he might have wobbled Arman briefly,

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Speaker 2: but Arbin still outlanded him by eleven strikes thirteen strikes

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Speaker 2: and was still given the round scored in his favor.

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Speaker 2: I agree, it's going to be difficult for Page just

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Speaker 2: to win this fight given the fact that he is

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Speaker 2: less finishing upside, he's the smaller man, and also the

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Speaker 2: judges are probably going to score anything close for share

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Speaker 2: of bullet.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, not super go ahead, Billy.

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Speaker 4: I just said the stats were weird with the Petrojian

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Speaker 4: fight though, like they've popped up. I just watched it

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Speaker 4: back like a ridiculously one sided leg kick graphic where

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Speaker 4: Petrosian outlanded Shara like thirty to eight or whatever, but

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Speaker 4: most of them didn't really land, Like most of the

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Speaker 4: Petrojians were getting deflected or glanced and everything Shara bullet

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Speaker 4: landed was like square full power. So like, those stats

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Speaker 4: are a little bit misleading. I hate this fight for

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Speaker 4: DFS for that reason because I don't know what's going

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Speaker 4: to get scored and what's not. But yeah, he said

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Speaker 4: he landed the most significant strike. He landed the most

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Speaker 4: like like the five most significant strikes or something, so

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Speaker 4: it's not I looked at that and said, Wow, how

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Speaker 4: to do win the round before I watched it back.

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Speaker 4: But he did a very good job defensive late against

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Speaker 4: the quality kickboxer, which he'll need to do again against mvb's.

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Speaker 3: Move on to our favorite underdogs.

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Speaker 2: We're an alignment on one of them, but you'll get

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Speaker 2: to that female fighter later. I'm going to start off

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Speaker 2: talking about Thomas Peterson at plus two to eighty against

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Speaker 2: Smil Gaziev. I think Peterson could potentially be the better

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Speaker 2: wrestler in this matchup. He's five years younger, he's smaller

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Speaker 2: three inch shorter four inch reach discrepancy, but he has

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Speaker 2: the better cardio and if he survives round one, if

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Speaker 2: this fight extends to round two, I like Peterson to

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Speaker 2: take over in the second and third rounds. After round

258
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Speaker 2: one may be the best entry point, but if he

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Speaker 2: gets a takedown in round one, you're never going to

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Speaker 2: see plus two eighty again. So Thomas Peterson at plus

261
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Speaker 2: two eighty down to plus two to fifty or so

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Speaker 2: is fine. And then the over two and a half

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Speaker 2: rounds I take at plus one twenty five. I would

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Speaker 2: bet that at any plus money price and then live

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Speaker 2: after round one on Thomason Thomas Peterson as well also

266
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Speaker 2: his decision prop. I think I met his decision line

267
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Speaker 2: about four to one, and I saw six to one

268
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Speaker 2: or higher on that number.

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Speaker 3: And then Mayra Bleno.

270
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Speaker 2: Silva at plus two twenty against Jasmine Jess Sudovisius. I

271
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Speaker 2: expected MBS to be favored in this fight given the

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Speaker 2: trajectory of both fighters, NBS coming off of a title

273
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Speaker 2: bout two fights back, JJ fighting relatively low level competition

274
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Speaker 2: losses any time she stepped up in caliber, and she's

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Speaker 2: stepping up in competition here against NBS. Who's the better finisher,

276
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Speaker 2: the more dangerous fighter, the better striker. I think JJ

277
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Speaker 2: has more wrestling upside, likelier to whole top position for

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Speaker 2: extended stretches. But in a three round fight, NBS is

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Speaker 2: the more dangerous fighter, the more dangerous striker, and I

280
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Speaker 2: think it's a good chance of finishing the fight or

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Speaker 2: winning via decision. Want to point out a few other

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Speaker 2: things on NBS relative to her last fight two dropping

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Speaker 2: down in wait here from one thirty five to one

284
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Speaker 2: twenty five. No issues on the scales on Friday. She's

285
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Speaker 2: actually the younger fighter of the pair, two years younger,

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Speaker 2: and I said she's faced the better competition in the

287
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Speaker 2: fast and maybe the most important factor relative to her

288
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Speaker 2: the rest of her career. She joined the team Fighting

289
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Speaker 2: Nerds before this fight, maybe the hottest camp in all

290
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Speaker 2: of MMA over the past couple of years, developing good

291
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Speaker 2: game plans for their fighters, maximizing their strengths inside the cage.

292
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Speaker 2: This was the five round fight. I wouldn't be running

293
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Speaker 2: it back with MBS, but in a three round fight

294
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 2: she should have enough over the first ten minutes to

295
00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 2: win minutes and secure decision, if not finish the fight. Billy,

296
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Speaker 2: I know you'll get to MBS a little bit later

297
00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,040
Speaker 2: where you could drop in what you feel like right now.

298
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Speaker 2: We've also got some thoughts on the bogn and Grad

299
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Speaker 2: and Lucas Alexander fight as well. Alexander missing weight on Friday,

300
00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,240
Speaker 2: so feel free to go any direction you want, Peterson, Mayra,

301
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,040
Speaker 2: Bona Soba or Boginingrad.

302
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Speaker 4: I'm going to try to go in your chronological order here.

303
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,000
Speaker 4: I think you could round Robin all of the heavyweight

304
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 4: overs and probably come out ahead here. And we all

305
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,800
Speaker 4: think Rosen strike Pavlovitch is going to be a finish.

306
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 4: It wouldn't shock me if it didn't that would be

307
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,160
Speaker 4: just like a fun little sprinkle. Don't have a ton

308
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 4: of thoughts on that, but yeah, Peterson has a wrestling base.

309
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,160
Speaker 4: Ghaziyev is a former high level volleyball player, and it's

310
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,440
Speaker 4: kind of yet to be seen what high level volleyball

311
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,280
Speaker 4: does as a base for MMA. Open question at this

312
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:29,120
Speaker 4: point with MBS, every Jasmin jaesuita Vidishi is fight, I

313
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,640
Speaker 4: assume she's like twenty seven, and then every time I click,

314
00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 4: I was like, Oh, she's like our age or a

315
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 4: little bit older. I don't understand, Like it seems like

316
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:39,160
Speaker 4: she just started late. I guess because she doesn't have

317
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 4: that many fights or that much experience. But and then

318
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Speaker 4: the other thing, not really super betting related, because I'll

319
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:47,640
Speaker 4: talk about how I'm in a structure it in a bit,

320
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,920
Speaker 4: but really weird that they're doing a female fight in

321
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia. They have not done that yet. It would

322
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 4: very much surprise me that either woman asked to go

323
00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 4: fight over there, Like it doesn't seem like it's for them.

324
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,160
Speaker 4: I don't know why we're doing that. I'm a little

325
00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 4: bit worried with judging or all that stuff, but just

326
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 4: what that's going to be like, not to get into

327
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 4: the politics of that. It's just a weird look. So

328
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 4: I was surprised to see this one on the card

329
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 4: in general, and then finally the actual new information. I

330
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,720
Speaker 4: have to add here cheating the favorite underdog a little

331
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 4: bit because he's plus one oh five. I can't not

332
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,200
Speaker 4: bet bog Dan Grad here. It's been really weird line

333
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,480
Speaker 4: movement with Grad opening as a very heavy favorite and

334
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 4: then eventually flipping to be an underdog. But if you

335
00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:32,840
Speaker 4: go on Topology or bet on My Picks or any

336
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,640
Speaker 4: of those sites, pretty much everybody seems to be on Grad,

337
00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 4: which means there's some big betters or sharp betters take

338
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 4: the Alexander's side. I kind of just put all that

339
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,600
Speaker 4: aside and watched some tape. I really like the skill

340
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 4: set that Grad has when he chooses to grapple. I

341
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 4: wrote him up for both of his Contender Series fights.

342
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 4: When he fought Tom Nolan had got knocked out. I said,

343
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 4: he can get sucked in the brawls. He shouldn't do that.

344
00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 4: He needs to grapple. Got knocked out by Nolan, went

345
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 4: back to the well. The second time he actually grappled,

346
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 4: looked great. It was a split decision win officially, but

347
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,199
Speaker 4: he pretty clearly won that fight watching it back. And

348
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 4: then Alexander is not a great grappler, especially in terms

349
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 4: of wrestling. He's got some decent jiu jitsu, but bog

350
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,160
Speaker 4: Dan is much stronger, big, you know, like more muscular.

351
00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,239
Speaker 4: Shorter dude can get into his frames, get inside and

352
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 4: just beat him up on the ground. And we've seen

353
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,800
Speaker 4: Alexander get submitted in two of his four losses. And

354
00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,240
Speaker 4: then he also got knocked out by Jacka Saaraghi, which

355
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 4: is a bad look because those Road to the UFC

356
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,880
Speaker 4: guys have not done all that well in the UFC,

357
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,720
Speaker 4: and as you pointed out, missing wait for the second

358
00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:39,120
Speaker 4: consecutive fight after not fighting for like fifteen or sixteen months.

359
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,920
Speaker 4: So I kind of questioned the dedication level, Like what's

360
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,639
Speaker 4: going on with Alexander, how much he really wants to

361
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 4: be doing this. He could absolutely knock out Grad if

362
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 4: Grad chooses to get into that brawl. Grad has power

363
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,680
Speaker 4: to you know, it's more or less a coin flip.

364
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 4: I think if it's a striking fight or slight favorite

365
00:17:55,800 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 4: to Alexander, kind of grappling upside more physical fight from

366
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 4: Grad and you're getting slight plus money so will not

367
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 4: bet that anything with a minus on it if you

368
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 4: wanted to take Grad by finish. I can kind of

369
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 4: see the angle there. For now, I'm taking the plus

370
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 4: one oh five. Maybe we'll get a better line. Typically

371
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,360
Speaker 4: the line goes towards the guy who's opponent missus. Wait,

372
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:17,679
Speaker 4: haven't seen that yet. I don't know what's going on

373
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 4: with this fight in the market, so I'm just relying

374
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,520
Speaker 4: on my tape and evaluation of the fighters.

375
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, DraftKings open this fight minus one fifteen minus one

376
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,080
Speaker 2: oh five, which is roughly where it is currently. But

377
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 2: the number got hit really hard right away on the

378
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,040
Speaker 2: Grad side, which moved Grad to about a minus two

379
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 2: hundred favorite. And then the line has steadily ticked in

380
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 2: since January twenty thirds. Over the past eight days, it's

381
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 2: steadily ticked in to getting Grad at plus money. So

382
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 2: to me, I read the market as fake out on Grad,

383
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:55,199
Speaker 2: slowly taking more and more capital on Alexander as the

384
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 2: weakest progressed in the sharper side of the market. Clearly

385
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 2: on Alexander. Considering all the line move Yeah, I'm on

386
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 2: Alexander here. I projected the line closer to minus one fifty.

387
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 2: Given the splits that you mentioned publicly, with people picking

388
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 2: Grad seventy to eighty percent of the time in a

389
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 2: fight that is now lined as to pick them with

390
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,119
Speaker 2: Grad technically is the underdog, even after he opened a

391
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 2: minus two hundred bull kind of open open to pick them,

392
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 2: but then was quickly bet to a minus two hundred

393
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 2: favorite after the soft openers. So run opposite side of

394
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 2: that one there. I think I may even prefer Alexander

395
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 2: by TKO plus two ninety. He's the better kickboxer with

396
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: a pair of three inches dollar three inch reach advantage.

397
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 2: As Billy pointed out, Grad is the better grappler the pair.

398
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 2: I think this is a relatively binary fight. I know

399
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 2: a lot of people are in the under two and

400
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 2: a half and about minus one ten minus one fifteen

401
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 2: ends inside the distance at about minus one twenty. I

402
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 2: could not get there, Billy, any thoughts on the total

403
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 2: or the ends inside the distance at minus one twenty

404
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 2: before we move on from this fight.

405
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, I need a plus on either of those numbers

406
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 4: I just got. We've we've seen both guys go to

407
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 4: a decision like multiple times. They both have power, But

408
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 4: if it goes the way I think it's going to

409
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 4: where grad mixes in any grappling, then it should extend

410
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 4: a little bit. And then also Lucas Alexander's only win

411
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 4: in the UFC was a decision. He did some damage.

412
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 4: He dropped Steven Peterson in that fight, so you could argue,

413
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 4: but I don't think he has like crazy power, Like

414
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 4: I don't think he's the guy who's just going to

415
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,119
Speaker 4: start you right away. So if you could get plus

416
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 4: money on the under two and a half, I would

417
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 4: do it. It's just a little bit out of what

418
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 4: I'd feel comfortable with.

419
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: Move On are our favorite props for Saturday's card, But

420
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,840
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430
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: for the full year. You'll be covered for the Super Bowl, UFC,

431
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 2: March Madness, Baseball, NBA, and even next college football and

432
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 2: NFL seasons. Don't wait visit actionnetwork dot com slash SB

433
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 2: to get forty dollars off your Action Pro subscriptions. Move

434
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 2: on our top props. I'm gonna bet a fight to

435
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: go the distance between Lockdog, Benisia Solovera and said Norma

436
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 2: Gametovo we actually discussed, I believe on last week's spot.

437
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 2: I think both of them came up independently. When we

438
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 2: talked about Benardo Soapi and then said came up. His

439
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 2: ninja choke came up in a different context, and that's

440
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 2: basically the only way I see the fight finishing, said

441
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: via early ninja choke or guillotine. He slaps it up

442
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: from the front headlock position, standing in front of you,

443
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 2: So it's not your traditional guillotine with a guy shooting

444
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 2: a blast double and getting it wrapped up up. He

445
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: just like is standing in front of you and snares

446
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: it around your neck and the fight is over.

447
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 3: It's one of the best chokes in the sport.

448
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 2: Considering it seems like every time I see him attempt it,

449
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 2: he finishes the fight with it. But I do like

450
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 2: that fight to go to a decision at minus one

451
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 2: oh five. Olivera has been knocked out three times, never submitted.

452
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: Said seems extremely durable. I know you're on the Olivera

453
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 2: side of that fight. We can get to that a

454
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 2: little bit later. I like him by decision at plus

455
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: four ten, though considering I like the fight to go

456
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 2: to this distance, so Olvera by decision of plus four

457
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 2: ten made that line closer to plus three hundred, and

458
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 2: the fight to go to a decision at minus one

459
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 2: oh five would probably about that up to minus one

460
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 2: ten or minus one fifteen between Venisius Olivera and said

461
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 2: Nermagametov and then also Mohammad Naimov plus one sixty five

462
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: to one inside the distance or his fight to end

463
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: inside the distance at plus one ten two inches tall

464
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: our four in treach advantage. He is the faster starter here,

465
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: the more explosive fighter. However, Naimov does gas out after

466
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: trying to finish his opponent. I think there's a chance

467
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,959
Speaker 2: that he doesn't finish oath lely. He potentially gets finished

468
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 2: himself after gassing out in round three, So Naimov inside

469
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 2: the distance plus one sixty five, that fight to end

470
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 2: inside the distance at plus one ten. Billy, you're gonna

471
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: talk about Demir Hadzovich against Terrence McKinney.

472
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 3: Completely agree with your.

473
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: Analysis of the fight, taking Hadzovich live in the middle

474
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 2: of round one, after round one after he potentially survives

475
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 2: an early onslaught for McKinny, and then taking a shot

476
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: on Hatzevich to win in round two of plus eighteen hundred.

477
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 2: If I'm betting this fight, that's exactly how I'm betting it.

478
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 3: Go ahead and give your analysis.

479
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's a Terrence McKinny fight, Like I

480
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 4: could kind of stop there. He's gonna kill you in

481
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 4: the first two or three minutes, or he's gonna totally

482
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 4: fall off a cliff. It's what we always see. McKinney's

483
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 4: like minus one fifty for a first round win. Like

484
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 4: I originally looked at this, like what can I get

485
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 4: t Rex in the first round? At you know, that's

486
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 4: a nice safe bet. You can't take minus one fifty

487
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 4: on a guy to win in the first round, even

488
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 4: though literally all of his wins in the UFC and

489
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 4: all but one of his pro wins I have been

490
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 4: in the first round. There's always that thought in the

491
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 4: back of your head, like maybe he slows it down

492
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 4: a little bit. I know you've talked about it being

493
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 4: kind of a self fulfilling prophecy at this point where

494
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 4: he's in his own head. I agree with that. I

495
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 4: don't think Hanzavic is very good. He's fought like once

496
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 4: in the last two years and hasn't won in like

497
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 4: four years or something, which is not a great sign

498
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 4: for a thirty eight thirty nine year old. But man,

499
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 4: if you can just hang on for three minutes, right like,

500
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 4: it seems to just present itself if you can do that,

501
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 4: So plus eighteen hundred round two is just ridiculous. If

502
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 4: you do the round one round two split, it's plus

503
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 4: eight fifty. If you weren't gonna be round about this live,

504
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 4: I might do that, but you really need to be

505
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 4: like on your toes in the middle of round one

506
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 4: waiting for a big moment from McKinney for the line

507
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 4: to blow out to like plus fifteen hundred live or

508
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 4: whatever on Hadza Vic. If you wait till the end

509
00:24:58,119 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 4: of round one, it might be too late, like heads,

510
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 4: your might have already turned it around by then. That's

511
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,479
Speaker 4: the annoying part with Darren mcinny, because if you've got

512
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 4: a guy with five minutes of cardio, I know when

513
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 4: to come in on his opponent. If you got a

514
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 4: guy with two three, generously four minutes of cardio, it

515
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 4: makes it harder to live bet, especially with the tape

516
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 4: delay and stuff like that. So excited for that one,

517
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 4: Like the likeliest outcome is still clearly a McKinney first

518
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 4: Sewan finished is my prop squad pick. I even put

519
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 4: in the article I usually do a quarter unit on

520
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 4: prop squad. I'm doing zero point one on this one.

521
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 4: Still win almost two. Leave a little bit for the

522
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 4: live bet too, so you could get some pretty bigger

523
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 4: turns if it works out that way. And then the

524
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 4: other one, you know, you obviously talked a lot about

525
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 4: Mayra Bueno Silva. I am not sure how'm gonna structure this.

526
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 4: She's minus one ten on the finish only line, which

527
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 4: seems crazy to me, Like if I had to make

528
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 4: this without seeing anything else, I would have made her

529
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 4: like minus two fifty, maybe somewhere in that range. Jasuda

530
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 4: Vicious has two finishes in the UFC. They're both dars chokes.

531
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 4: Buenosila was way too good of a grappler for the

532
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 4: JESUITA Vicius is the better wrestler, but she might just

533
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 4: wrestle herself into trouble against MBS four of her five

534
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,239
Speaker 4: wins or submissions. I believe the only time she's been

535
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 4: stopped in the UFC was the cut, which I don't

536
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 4: want to say is a fluke, Like you know, somebody

537
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 4: elbowed you in the face and you started bleeding. It's

538
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 4: not the most like repeatable or something you can game

539
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 4: plan for. Is like I'm just gonna catch her perfectly

540
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 4: with an elbow until she bleeds. And as you pointed

541
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 4: out that was up at one thirty five, you would

542
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 4: imagine she's less likely to get TKO or take damage

543
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 4: against a lighter fighter. Yeah. I just thought all the

544
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 4: lines on this were weird. I think what I'll probably

545
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 4: do after listening to your breakdown probably bet to win

546
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 4: half a unit so like one point one, Yeah, bet

547
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 4: to win half a units to ero point five to

548
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 4: five units on the finish only, and then bet like

549
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 4: half a unit on her money line, so you know

550
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 4: you're really only risking the half if Jasuda Visius wins

551
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 4: a decision, I don't know exactly. I'll have that stuff

552
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 4: in the app later this afternoon when I settle on it.

553
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 4: But we like MBS. It's just a matter of how

554
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 4: is I guess the big takeaway here?

555
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, maker finish only the line about minus one fifty.

556
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: I just ran the math quick while you were talking,

557
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 2: so minus one ten certainly seems off. Get that bet

558
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: refunded if the fight goes to a decision. I think

559
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: it's likely you get that one refunded. But I would

560
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 2: be very surprised if she ends up getting finished by JJ,

561
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 2: especially if it's in the first two rounds. If it's

562
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: a cardio orient and finished Layton round three, Okay, I

563
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 2: can see that path for just Sudovicious, but any other

564
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 2: point in the fight, I would be pretty survived, pretty

565
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: surprised if NBS gets finished. Oh, just to go back

566
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 2: to the Hadsovich fight and you talk about McKinney, I mean,

567
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 2: think about that McKinney Drew Dover fight. McKinney dropped over

568
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 2: twice within the first two minutes and then still lost

569
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: at the three minute mark of round one. So yeah,

570
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 2: that mid point of round one maybe the best entry

571
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: point on hads of it. She's probably gonna get dropped

572
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: or taken down and held down, you know, for the

573
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 2: first half of the round. If he's getting held down,

574
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't live bet it. If he gets knocked

575
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 2: down and pops back up and he's still a little wobbly,

576
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 2: but he's in the fight, I would consider live betting

577
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: it at that point. If he's getting held down, doesn't

578
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: have a good takedown defense, doesn't have a great get

579
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: up game, old coming off knee surgery, I wouldn't love

580
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 2: betting him live after a takedown until after round one,

581
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 2: But mid round one, if they're striking it out, I

582
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 2: think is the entry point. And then Hadsovich by KO

583
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 2: at plus eight fifty worth of consideration as well as

584
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 2: opposed to betting Kadzovich round one. In round two and

585
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 2: splitting that billy about plus eight hundred, I think he

586
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 2: could just take his KO prop at about plus eight

587
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 2: hundred plus seven to fifty instead. But I think that

588
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,719
Speaker 2: round two is the best look, and it's not a

589
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 2: fight where I'm going to bet round two round three

590
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 2: Normally I bet, you know, late props round two round

591
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: three on fighters. If I'm betting Kydsovich here, it's just

592
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 2: round two, it's not round three. If this fight gets

593
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: to a round three, I think McKinney may see scorecards

594
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 2: the first time in the UFC and in terms of

595
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 2: how I project these out. But there's certainly value quote

596
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 2: unquote betting the over one and a half. I'm not

597
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: touching that, not none, soil McKinny proves that he can

598
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: actually go that far. I know we've had success in

599
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 2: the past betting Bo Nickel over one and a half

600
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 2: before he had ever done it, and we've got other

601
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 2: fighters ensnared in that, but not with the terrans that

602
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: Kitty fight. Given the way he comes out, there's.

603
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 4: A big sample size. We're not like bo Nickel had

604
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: won three fights in the UFC or something. We've got

605
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 4: a huge sample size on Tyny, including his pre UFC career.

606
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 4: This is not like some guys are just outliers, right

607
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 4: like tybreek Hill is going to have a bigger yard

608
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 4: for reception than everybody else. You got to stop modeling

609
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 4: that regression to the mean at a certain point. I

610
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 4: don't I can't tell you exactly when that point is,

611
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 4: but it was a while ago, McKinny, it's not now.

612
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: It's he's been over one and a half one time.

613
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 2: It was his fourth career fight back in twenty eighteen,

614
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: and he's still finished the fight via nee bar in

615
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: round three. But yeah, the closest he's come other eyes,

616
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 2: he was thirteen seconds away and his loss is Ishmael

617
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 2: Bond theme two seventeen of round two. Otherwise he's only

618
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: been to round two on one other occasion two other occasions.

619
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's it's happened one time in his

620
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: pro career. It hasn't happened in about eighteen fights. I

621
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 2: think at some point he is the outlier and it's

622
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 2: probably not worth batting against despite the pulst morning However,

623
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 2: my best bet on this card is going to be

624
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: at over one and a half, and it's a fight

625
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 2: that Billy Neck a little bit earlier for saying we

626
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 2: guarantee or at least one to finish. I do not

627
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 2: expect Pavlovich and rosenstrike definish right. I expected to finish

628
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 2: more than fifty percent of the time. But relative to

629
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 2: the betting market, I think there is value on this

630
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 2: heavyweight fight to go over one and a half rounds

631
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 2: and then potentially to go to a decision. So heavyweight

632
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 2: fights on average go to a decision about forty percent

633
00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 2: of the time.

634
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,719
Speaker 3: It's forty one percent.

635
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 2: In reality, the market here is giving you eleven percent

636
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 2: on the GTD. I made it twenty two percent. So again,

637
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 2: it's very unlikely that this fight goes to a decision

638
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 2: seventy eight percent of the time. It's not going to

639
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: go to a decision in my estimation, but that is

640
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 2: still a higher projection on it to go to decision

641
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: than the biting market is telling you at eighty nine

642
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: percent unlikely. Now, heavyweight fights also go over one and

643
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: a half fifty seven percent of the time. If I

644
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: make the adjustments here relative to you know, the GTD,

645
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: this over one and a half by my estimation should

646
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 2: be plus one forty to plus one fifty. At worse,

647
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 2: you're getting plus one to eighty on it. Over one

648
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: and a half plus one sixty plus one fifty or

649
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 2: better would be a bet for me. I think you

650
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: see one of two fights, maybe one of three fights

651
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: play out here. The first is Pavlovich blitzes either gets

652
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 2: knocked out on a counter Ornox eros and strikeout early.

653
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: But you got to remember these two were training partners.

654
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 2: They know each other's tendency as well. They know that

655
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: each other's power pretty well. Pavolvich, also coming off of

656
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 2: a fight against Volkov, another forming training partner, is the

657
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 2: most tentative we've seen him in his entire career. Now,

658
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: maybe that was partially due to him coming off of

659
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 2: a knockout loss to Tom Aspital not wanting to get knocked.

660
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 3: Out again, but regardless, he doesn't have great cardio. It's okay.

661
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 2: He is okay cardio, probably better than I thought it

662
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: would be originally considering his round one finishing tendencies. But two,

663
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 2: unless pavolch engage, this is going to be a low

664
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 2: Paz fight because Rosian Trek is happy to stand on

665
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 2: the outside, keep one foot on the black area of

666
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 2: the octagon, even have both feet behind it, keep his

667
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: back near the fence. If his opponent presses forward, he

668
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 2: side steps one way or the other and it looks

669
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 2: to evade and land a counter hook. So Rosenstrike happened

670
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: to engage in a staring contest. Pavlovich may not be

671
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 2: as aggressive as he has been earlier in his UFC career,

672
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: based on his last fight, based on the fact that

673
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: these guys are.

674
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 3: Former training partners.

675
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 2: In terms of picking his side, I do show value

676
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 2: on either fighter to win by decision. Considering my value

677
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 2: on the GTD props, I think I'd actually lean Pavovich

678
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 2: at plus eleven hundred over Rosenstrike at ten to one. Now,

679
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: these guys are former training partners. When Pavlovich left he

680
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 2: went to Eagles MMA to train with kabe Nermakomtov and team.

681
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: I think there is potentially some grappling skill underneath there

682
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 2: that we haven't seen yet. And coming off of a

683
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: striking fight loss to Volkov after getting knocked out by aspinall,

684
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 2: this is the kind of fight you may be able

685
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 2: to grapple and take advantage of offensively as the bigger

686
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 2: man against Rosenstrike, who when you take him down, he

687
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 2: does stay down for extended periods the time, has a

688
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 2: pretty good takedown defense, but once he's on his back

689
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 2: heeds to not get up at all. So I like

690
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 2: a slower paced fight here. I like the over one

691
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: and a half at plus one eighty again down plus

692
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 2: one sixty, and then I'm poking the GTD prop plus

693
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: four ninety. You can take that at about four to

694
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: one or better, Billy, any thoughts on the over one

695
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,959
Speaker 2: and a half here at the plus money at price

696
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 2: target you'd want to jump in on and then your

697
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 2: best bet you gave out Benisi solivera earlier in the

698
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: weekend about plus one sixty five, still currently about plus

699
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 2: one forty. Curious of your cutoff on him as well.

700
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, a lot of thoughts. Just to clarify, I

701
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 4: was endorsing taking the over in every single heavyweight fight,

702
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 4: like I'm gonna do some kind of round robin, I think,

703
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 4: just with all three of them and see what happens. Yeah,

704
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 4: I love your analysis. Nobody does a staring contest better

705
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 4: than the biggie boy Gyresenior or Rosenstrike. We for like,

706
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 4: we kind of forgive him for it. I don't think

707
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 4: of him that way because when he decides to engage,

708
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 4: it's very explosive and he hits pretty hard, but there's

709
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 4: long stretches with just nothing with him. I love that.

710
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 4: Not only did he go trade with Pavlovitch, not only

711
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 4: did he go trade with Abib. He was a pure

712
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 4: Greco Roman wrestler until twelfth grade. And was invited to

713
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 4: be on the russianal team but took asembo tournament instead

714
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 4: of trying out for the Russian Olympic team. So like

715
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:09,760
Speaker 4: the grappling was the foundation, Like that's what he did before. Imma,

716
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,919
Speaker 4: we haven't seen much of it because when you look

717
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 4: like that, you kind of just hit people and watch

718
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 4: them explode, and that's way more fun obviously, Like if

719
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 4: you could, if I could do that, I'd be doing

720
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 4: it too.

721
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 3: So I guess the intensive too.

722
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, but against a guy with some dangerous striking after

723
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 4: getting beaten up for a couple of fights on the

724
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 4: feet against more technical but less powerful opponents, arguably with

725
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 4: aspinall but whatever, Yeah, I mean it would make a

726
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 4: lot of sense.

727
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 2: I love if you're real former training partners, like you

728
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 2: may go into a fight against somebody you assume you

729
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 2: have the grappling advantage, but you don't really know they

730
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: know who is the grappling advantage between them? Right, and

731
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 2: if anything, it's actually grown towards the Pablovitch side, you know,

732
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: since then, So at some point I would imagine while

733
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 2: they were sparring, they were rolling with one another and

734
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 2: Pavich knows, hey, like I probably have the grappling advantage.

735
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 2: I had to strike, the vantage on the ground, the

736
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: speed advantage on the feet. But the easiest path here

737
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 2: for me maybe on the ground, like he knows it's

738
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: there more likely than not.

739
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 3: Question is whether he pursues it.

740
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 4: So yeah, and it's a big question, which is why

741
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 4: I'm not like late, you know, trying to get cute

742
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 4: with his props or whatever. But yeah, I love the

743
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 4: overs in this one of ghosted decision. Again. Kind of

744
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 4: all the heavyweight fights here, they're all this is the

745
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 4: only one that might not be the wrong kind of

746
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 4: heavyweight fight, but it might actually be the wrong kind

747
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 4: of heavyweight fight. But as for mind, yeah, you set

748
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 4: me up well. I took Venecias Oliver against Site Normalga

749
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 4: made off and plus one sixty four earlier in the week.

750
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 4: I don't I guess I wouldn't say his plus one

751
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 4: forty now is my best bet. I'd still take it

752
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 4: down to like plus one twenty plus one twenty five.

753
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 4: I think he's the better striker, or at least the

754
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 4: more dynamic striker than said, which is weird to say

755
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 4: about it. Normalga made off because we don't usually think

756
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 4: of their striking, But really all he does grappling wise

757
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 4: is that from head lock series where he works guillotines, tnja, chokes,

758
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 4: whatever you want to call it. That usually happens because

759
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 4: his opponent is either trying to push him against the

760
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 4: fence or trying to wrestle with him. You can't force

761
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 4: that at range, right Like, if I'm not touching your head,

762
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 4: I can't get it to my armpit. I can only

763
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 4: do that to you if you're trying to engage with

764
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 4: that stuff. I don't think Olivera will. I don't know

765
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 4: that Olivera necessarily wins a peer striking match. Here. I

766
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 4: think he's better than plus one forty to win a

767
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 4: peer striking match. And then just kind of fundamentally, and

768
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 4: this is how I got CLV on. This is because

769
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 4: Sayid's last name is Normalkhamedov. There's a certain market expectation there,

770
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 4: and then people go, oh, wait, he's not related to

771
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 4: be he can't grapple that well, and he doesn't train

772
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 4: with those guys, and then the line kind of adjusts

773
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 4: backs in as people start, you know, taking the other

774
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 4: side of it. So I'm not saying I'm blindly betting

775
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 4: against him but there's a certain reality of it where

776
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 4: his money line, especially earlier in the week, is almost

777
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 4: always just going to be a little bit longer than

778
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 4: it should, just due to the act that that's his

779
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 4: last name, despite it not really meaning anything.

780
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, no relation to the rest of the nermaga metovs

781
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: nor relation to Islam Mikatchev or Umar or kuld Bee

782
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 2: is a different Nermagametov different fighting style, more spinning kicks

783
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: and that that front choke game, but not as much

784
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:24,760
Speaker 2: like pure wrestling and control and top time, much likelier

785
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 2: to be a kickboxing match between these two. How do

786
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 2: you feel about Olivera by decision to plus four to fifty.

787
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 2: I mentioned that earlier, I made it closer to plus

788
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 2: three hundred. I think that's a prople I'm gonna end

789
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 2: up poking. How do you feel about it?

790
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 4: I mean, it's hard to poke too many holes in anything,

791
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 4: and plus four to fifty, I think that's probably a

792
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 4: pretty good line in terms of what the true outcome is.

793
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 4: I feel like I think Olivera should be able to

794
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 4: finish this fight, but obviously we've never seen the Magamedov

795
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,479
Speaker 4: get finished. I don't think he's ever even been knocked down,

796
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 4: so that's probably a little bit overly optimistic on my side.

797
00:38:58,360 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 4: And yeah, plus four to fifty it makes a ton

798
00:38:59,920 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 4: of sense. The biggest hang up for me, though, is

799
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 4: something we talked about earlier. Those scorecards might already be

800
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 4: filled in for side near Maga madeoff, so it's got

801
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,240
Speaker 4: to be really clear for Olivera to win a decision.

802
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 4: He could still win a decision. I'm not saying they

803
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 4: literally pre fill these in, but if around is sixty

804
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 4: forty and we all think Olivera is the sixty, it's

805
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 4: probably not going to him, So that makes it a

806
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 4: little bit tougher.

807
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 3: Love and fight card.

808
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 2: We got the most of them, the only two I

809
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 2: believe we didn't touch on Mike Davis against Farism. This

810
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 2: line has moved in pretty aggressively on the ZM side,

811
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 2: all the way down from plus two hundred to plus

812
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 2: one twenty and then the Jamal Pogues homdi Adella hob

813
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 2: It's basically a pickham heavyweight fight. I know you said

814
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 2: you like the overs and the heavyweight matchups this week.

815
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 2: This one is minus one ninety to go to a decision.

816
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 2: Considering it's a pick them fight, likely GTD do you

817
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 2: have a preference on either of Delahab against Pogues and

818
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: is there any side do you like either side of

819
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 2: ZM against Mike Davis.

820
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be honest, I would just sleep in through

821
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 4: the first one. That's okay, you guys don't. You don't

822
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 4: have to watch it. It's you'll be okay, I promise.

823
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 4: That's why I said I was just gonna throw it

824
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 4: in around Robin or whatever. I don't think I could

825
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 4: do it on its own, but as a kicker, and

826
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 4: the chance that you know, Pavlovich goes over whatever. I

827
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 4: actually had Davis in my luck ratings, though, and I

828
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 4: was hoping the line would continue to fall. I was

829
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 4: looking for minus one twenty five or so. I still

830
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 4: haven't got it. I might just bite the bullet at

831
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 4: minus one forty. I'm going to wait till, like the

832
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 4: earlier fights have already started, though, because I'm still hold

833
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 4: I hope we get a better price. I think Davis

834
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 4: is the better fighter here. I also think it's very close.

835
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 4: Both guys on four fight win streaks. Both have looked

836
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,879
Speaker 4: pretty good. Honestly, both have kind of looked better than

837
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 4: I expected them to in recent fights which makes it

838
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 4: for a hard handicap because are we projecting them both

839
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 4: upward or reprojecting that to continue at the same rate.

840
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 4: A lot of questions there, But if we get the

841
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 4: better line, I would take Davis at minus one twenty

842
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 4: five or so.

843
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I completely agree given the direction of the

844
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 2: line movement, I've been patient. I'm waiting for a better

845
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: number to come into range. I do project Davis as

846
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: the value side of the fight again. He's moved all

847
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 2: the way down from minus two to fifty to minus

848
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 2: one fifty. That Alexander fight we talked about earlier, I

849
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: project Alexander as the favorite. I expect to keep moving

850
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: his direction. We'll see if he does. I doubt it

851
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 2: after he missed. Wait the Davis fight. I make minus

852
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 2: one fifty five for Davis. It's moved all the way

853
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 2: from minus two to fifty to minus one forty. If

854
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 2: it gets a little bit lower, even minus one thirty five,

855
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: probably I will likely jump in on the favorite there

856
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 2: and that'll do it for a UFC betting preview for

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Speaker 2: this week's card. You can find more UFC betting content

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Speaker 2: for both Billy and myself on Action network dot com.

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Speaker 2: that early start time on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: We'll see you back here next week.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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