WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 NFL Week 11 Guessing Lines Show 0:00:03.560 --> 0:00:05.680 The numbers told the story and they always done. It's 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:08.280 one of those idiots will believe in analytics. This is 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:12.000 a numbers game with Gil Alexander, gone vis in Good 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.200 Monday Morning two. It is a numbers game at Visa, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:16.720 the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, the Visa That Game, 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.119 plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course the DK network. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.720 It is a numbers game guessing lines for week number. 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:27.240 What we had eleven eleven in the National Footballay, I 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.120 can't hear you, man, can't hear you? My ears? You 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.400 up there? Oh? No, there it is Kelly Bidlin. Everybody, 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:35.800 Week eleven is what we're gonna do here on the show. 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.440 It's Gil Alexander. That is the voice of Kelly Bidlin, 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.720 producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How's 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.120 your weekend? Man? Good? Yeah? It was okay, Circle million. 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:45.720 That's good. That's done. You're done, ze, I think, So 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:48.520 what do you do on three and one? How about you? 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.960 I'm having a dream season? Man, who you want to roll? Recently? 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:56.880 I'm on Fire three and one, Bill's pending tonight fourteen 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.840 and one run on the megapod and were it need 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.840 fourteen and one? Dude? If it were not for that 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.679 oh to five and millions, I'd be somebody. But I 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:08.240 had and five. Yeah, and I had the to five 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:10.600 week five, which is the beginning of a quarterly. So 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:13.720 like it's that couldn't have been time more poorly. I 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:15.680 went to one and four that same week. We both 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:18.000 did terrible that week. Yeah. That suck. It always sucks 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:20.920 to start off a quarter bat. Yeah. And for those 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:22.840 who are just tuning in again for guessing lines, let 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:25.040 me just say that this is the exercise that has 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:30.040 worked out splendidly. Yes, as with any NFL betting success, 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:33.480 the balls have to bounce your way on the on 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:36.800 the plinko games, and so that has definitely happened this year. 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:38.680 That's the thing Kelly too. It's like, I don't know, 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:40.479 am I any better this year than it was last year? 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:42.839 Just that tho the plinko games have gone my way? Yeah, 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:44.120 I think you have to be you have to be 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:47.960 honest about that at times with us, and certainly at 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.560 all times with the National Football League. But this is 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:53.240 the exercise that has led us to those wins, and 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.360 it really is a first reaction. I'm in a cocoon. 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:58.240 I don't know the lines. We'll go through every game 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.040 that happened yesterday. I will guess what I think the 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:03.080 line should be for a Week eleven matchup, Kelly will 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.360 tell me what they actually are, and within that exercise 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:07.920 we hope to extract value. That's the point of all 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.240 of this, and man has it worked out in spades 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.360 thus far this year. First, a Survivor update for those 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.640 still alive and Survivor a Circus Survivor. By the way, 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:18.200 I think Steve Feszick is going to be in the 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:22.360 lead or a half game out in Circum Millions after 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:26.240 Week ten. But in Circus Survivor, a contest that started 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:28.960 with nine two hundred and sixty seven entries at one 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.400 thousand dollars a pop, meaning a nine point two six 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:37.760 seven million dollar pot, four hundred and seventy five of 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.680 the remaining eleven hundred and fifty three got knocked out yesterday, 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:44.160 four hundred and twenty two of which were on the Bengals, 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:47.840 or as Matt Brown calls them, the Bengals, or as 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:49.840 one of those announcers calls them, the Bengals. No one 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:52.120 can seem to get it right anyway, four and twenty 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.320 two out on them alone four in seventy five total, 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:58.880 So that brings the initial nine thousand, two hundred and 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.160 sixty seven pool down to six hundred and seventy eight. 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.519 Who six to it now? Well, I mean last year 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:10.320 there was only eighty six left, so ninety two point 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.680 six eight percent have been knocked out this year so far. 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:15.000 Last year was ninety eight point six percent. That's incredible. 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.120 There were only eighty six left at this point last year, 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:19.560 but six hundred and seventy eight left this year. The 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:23.840 intrinsic value of each moves up to thirteen thoy, six 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:27.639 hundred and sixty eight dollars and fourteen cents. Congratulations to 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:31.160 everybody who's still alive. Obviously, we got games coming up 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:36.600 this Sunday, followed right by the Thanksgiving three game fest 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:39.280 in Circus Survivor, where that acts as its own week. 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.920 So good luck to all the remaining who have the 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:43.920 six hundred and seventy eight, some of whom still have 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:46.440 ten entries left, by the way, all ten they've been 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:48.480 shoving on each each and every one of these weeks, 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.400 so good luck to all those folks. Let us begin 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.000 with the Thursday night game and we'll try to extract 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:56.960 some value on week eleven. That's what this is all about. 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.680 What do you got? We got the open first day 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:05.400 lines here we go Monday, butter fuck you would think 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.119 one of these weeks I'd be like, oh, yeah, there's 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:10.240 an open to this Thursday night, the big one. Bengals 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:13.440 at Ravens. Oh, we got a great Thursday night. Know, 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:16.360 we really do. As opposed to that drek we saw 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:21.520 last week, It's like these two teams were looking ahead. Yeah, 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:25.279 so Cincinnati had Baltimore Cincinnati. We just talked about how 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:29.080 they crushed survivor players. Boy boy, was that a rollercoaster 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:32.000 of a game opening drive yesterday against the Texans. Sixty 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:34.200 yard drive Borrow to Trenton Irwin from thirty two yards 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:36.400 out seven and I think Cincinnati. Then after a trade 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.200 of puntch Houston had it all the way down fourth 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:40.920 and won at the Cincinnati nine. They fumbled the snap 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:42.800 and they failed to convert at the end of the 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:45.200 first quarter. So everything going Cincinnati is a way in 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:46.960 the first But then after a Cincinnati three and out, 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.880 Houston goes sixty six yards Stroud to Dell Tank Dell. 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.719 What a find from six out seven to seven with 0:04:52.800 --> 0:04:54.360 ten thirty three left in the second quarter. Then the 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:55.960 Bengals would have two three and outs the rest of 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.479 the half, while Houston drive would be stopped on a 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:00.880 strip sack of Stroud by Logan will and Trey Hendrickson 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:03.440 on third and six at the Cincinnati thirty one Mike 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:06.320 Hilton recovering. So it'll be ten seven Houston at the half. 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:08.840 So think about that. Houston's up only three at the half. 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:12.400 But yet they've had two deep penetrations into Cincinnati territory 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:17.240 that ended up in turnovers. Second half one hundred by 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.480 the way, at halftime, one hundred and ninety eight yards 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.599 passing for CJ. Stroud. It's almost like the Panther should 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:25.559 have picked him first. Still so angry about the NFL 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:28.240 draft betting, SEEJ is Stroud By the way, we'll get 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:31.440 to this. Not only is he now the ridiculous prohibitive 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:33.120 favorite for Rookie of the Year, it's it's not even 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:36.359 a market anymore, but down to thirty to one in 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.240 some spots for MVP. Here's the thing. If you do 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:42.200 the blind resume test, he could very well be the MVP. 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.080 The problem is we have stupid, flawed human brains and 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.159 they're not gonna They're not gonna make him MVP on 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:47.960 top of Rookie of the Year. 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:51.000 It's just too easy. It's like when we talk about 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:52.800 with the offensive Player of the year. Sometimes it's so 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.800 easy to give him Rookie of the Year and give 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.640 a Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey offensive player of the year, 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:00.599 and then they go with the worst Alish quarterback. 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:02.800 We're a stupid species, is what we worked all right. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:04.640 Second half of this ball game ten to seven is 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:08.000 where it is at the half opening drive matt Amadula 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:10.159 twenty two yard field goal after Woods was called for 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:12.720 illegal touching on a would be touchdown pass from Stroud, 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:15.000 which survived review. That was another one where they could 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:16.680 have had more points and they didn't get it. They 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:18.840 settle for the field goal. Thirteen to seven Houston nine 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:21.240 twenty six left, third quarter, and then after Cincinnati three 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:23.799 and out, Houston goes sixty yards, spurred by a forty 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:26.520 two yard PI where they just completely ran over Dell. 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:29.039 Two plays later, Singletary in from six out, twenty to 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.680 seven Houston seven oh eight left at the third quarter, 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.360 and the Cincinnati survivor players are like, oh no, Now 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:36.560 it's twenty to ten after a McPherson fifty yard field 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:38.880 goal after Houston three and out, though Cincinnati goes seventy 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.520 three yards. Burrow on a scramble beautiful sixty four yard 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:45.000 touchdown passed that chase on a dime twenty to seventeen 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:47.479 Houston ten seconds left in the third, and the Cincinnati 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.520 survivor players were like, yes, this is gonna happen after all. Noope. 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:52.920 Ensuing drive, Houston go seventy five yards on six plays, 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.400 Stroud in from eight twenty seven to seventeen Houston twelve 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.599 forty seven to go. Following drives, Cincinnati matriculates, and here's 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:02.000 where it gets really weird. For Bro, We've replaced your 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:05.600 normal Joe Burrow with a cheap imitation because Burrow then 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.239 overthrows a pass picked by DeAndre Houston Carson nine thirty 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.040 five to go. Then after another Houston pun Cincinnati matriculates 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.880 again first and one at the thirteen of Houston Burrow 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.880 picked by Shaquille Griffin. One of the worst passes you'll 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.440 ever see. Joe Burrow, uh, you know, actually throw three 0:07:19.520 --> 0:07:22.400 fifty three to go. Bengals are on death's door at 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.480 this point, but then Stroud on third and two at 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.960 their own twenty eight three forty one to go, picked 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:31.160 by Cam Taylor britt return to the fourth. It's only 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.640 Stroud's second pick of the year that leads to a 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:35.560 mix and one yard score twenty seven to twenty four 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.040 Houston three eighteen to go, but Cincinnati only has one 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:40.400 time out left, so with no timeouts left for Cincinnati, 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:41.960 all Houston had to do was convert a third and 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.480 three to ice it with two twenty six remaining, but 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:46.800 a three and out instead. Cincinnati gets the ball back 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:49.320 down three two ten to go at their own twenty nine. 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.400 Second play of the drive, Burrow to Boyd for sixty 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:55.080 four mostly yak first and goal at the Houston seven 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:57.600 with one fifty three to go. The Cincinnati survivor players 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.480 are like, we're gonna do this, but a sack then 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.600 Burrow for only one. Then Boyd drops a would be 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:07.200 touchdown pass right through his hands. They settle for the 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:09.239 first and thirty one yard field goal with one thirty 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:11.800 three to go. Way too much time fors drought five 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:13.800 plays to get from their own twenty five into field 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:18.000 goal range. Matt Ammondola off the streets through the uprights 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:21.680 thirty eight yards, the first of five walkoffs of the day. 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:25.640 Thirty to twenty seven. Houston and the Cincinnati Survivor players 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:28.160 are done. So Burrow twenty seven to forty for three 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.640 forty seven, two touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked four times, 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:32.360 Chase five for one to twenty four in a touch 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.520 Boyd eight for one seventeen. They gave up five hundred 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:38.439 and forty four total yards to Houston. And then there's Baltimore, 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:41.840 which this game started against the Browns, like every Baltimore 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:43.800 game seems to second play at the game from scrimmage, 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:45.920 second and six at their own twenty nine, thirty four 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:48.760 seconds into the game, DeShawn picked by Kyle Hamilton to 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.360 the house eighteen yards, seven to nothing Baltimore. Then after 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.240 Cleveland punt, Baltimore goes seventy nine yards. Cayden Mitchell in 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.880 from thirty nine. Man, is he fast? Fourteen to nothing Baltimore, 0:08:57.920 --> 0:08:59.400 ten oh eight left in the first quarter. We're not 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:01.800 even five minute. It's in and Baltimore's doing it again. Yep, 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.640 they're running away with a children come out this story 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.000 with four ten. Yeah, they're not fourteen to three now. 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:08.840 Lamar to Mitchell for thirty two. The big play that 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:10.680 leads to a Tucker thirty seven yard field goals seventeen 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:13.679 to three, now seventeen to six. Tucker fifty five yard 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.360 field goal tried blocked by Jordan Elliott Anthony Walker with 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.280 the return to fourteen left in the second quarter, seventeen 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:21.240 to nine. Now, by the way, fifty two seconds left 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.160 in the second quarter, First intended their own thirty six 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:26.400 Lamar picked by Mike Ford on either a severely underthrown 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:29.000 ball or a miscommunication, but Cleveland can't capitalize, so it 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:31.040 remained seventeen to nine at the half. There were so 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.000 many times when we thought Baltimore was just gonna win 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:34.960 this game. There was a There was one of them 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:36.920 where you're like, oh, I'm still seventeen to nine. Second 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:39.880 half opening drive, Baltimore goes seventy eight yards Lamar to 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:43.240 obj mostly Yack for forty twenty four to nine. Baltimore 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:48.320 Ravens are gonna coast Nope. Seventeen play, seventy five yard 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:51.000 drive that took ten minutes and nine seconds for Cleveland, 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:54.079 Hunt in from three, Watson two point conversion. It's twenty 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:59.959 four to seventeen Baltimore to twenty left three quarter. Third quarter, 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.720 Browns would then force a punt down just seven, but 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:05.960 James proshe muffs it, recovered by Devin Duverne, aided by 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:09.160 a couple defensive holds. Gus eventually in from one thirty 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.360 one to seventeen. Baltimore with eleven thirty four to go again. 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:14.400 You're like guys, like a third time. Baltimore is clearly 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:17.240 gonna win this game. Noupe. Cleveland goes seventy five yards 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.400 thirty one to twenty four. Baltimore now Watson to Elijah 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:22.640 Moore from ten out eight fifty seven left. By the 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.440 way Stefanski went for one new analytics, folks, he didn't. 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:27.920 He didn't do the old eight to six thing there. 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:31.400 Then ensuing drives, second played Lamore picked by Greg Newsom, 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:34.600 off a high deflection to the house thirty one thirty, 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:39.200 but Hopkins misses the pat. Baltimore is gonna get lucky 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:42.400 and win this again. Nope, Baltimore forced to punt. Cleveland 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:43.840 gets it back with four to fifty five to go 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:46.560 down one fourth play of the drive, first intend at 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:49.520 their own thirty one. Browns then survive Dafe o Way 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:53.199 stripsack of Watson when offensive lineman Wyatt Teller recovers it. 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:57.440 Remember Kelly, we never remember those moments. Fumble luck, then 0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:59.760 seventeen to Cooper on the next play at Deshawn's sixteen 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:02.280 yard run two plays later, and ultimately a Hopkins walk 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:04.920 off forty yard field goal to win at thirty three 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:09.200 thirty one Cleveland in improbable fashion. Lamar finishes with only 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:12.440 thirteen completed forward passes thirteen of twenty three for two 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:14.959 twenty three, one touchdown, two picks, sack three times, eight 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.760 cars of forty one. What a game Thursday night this 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.640 will be? I said, Baltimore minus three just made it 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:22.079 the field goal. I didn't know what else to make it. 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:25.360 We are so that was the look ahead. It's out 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:27.800 to three and a half at DraftKings, you could shop 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:29.880 around three and a half or four is where this 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:33.480 game is sitting at right now. They gave him the hook, Yeah, 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:36.880 they gave him a hook. We don't really know which 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:38.920 one of these, which one of these teams will looked 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.960 worse yesterday. I guess Cincinnati. I'll tell you what. Lamar 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:45.640 or Joe Burrow didn't advance their MVP candidacies very much. No, Yeah, 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.000 that's for sure. All right, that's Thursday night. We'll get 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.400 to Sunday guessing lines. It's a numbers game, at least 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:55.800 in these sports betting network. Here are three reasons Zen 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:59.840 is America's number one nicotine pounch. We use food grade ingredients. 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.560 We have a wide selection of varieties and they all 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.800 come in two strengths. Find Zin at a store near you. 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:08.960 Warning this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:12.080 It's skill. Alexander Kelly Bidlin guessing lines for Week eleven, 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.520 live from bar Canada at the d we get tweets 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:16.800 at beating the book straight. A couple here, Chris sells 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.560 at ct sales Gil what a Survivor roller coaster. I 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.439 was going to take Cincinnati, but I switched to Baltimore 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:26.079 for three quarters. I was thinking I'm a genius. Baltimore 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.760 will win and Cincinnati will lose. After the game, I 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:30.800 didn't watch another second of football today. I woke up 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:34.120 feeling like I've lost my best friend. Yeah, losing your 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:39.280 survivor entry late is about as brutal as it gets. Yeah, 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.640 because you start to feel it, you start to taste it, 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:43.600 guys like me come on the air every weekend. They're 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.439 like intrinsic value thirteen thousand, you know, and then it 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:46.800 goes away. 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.800 Yeah, I think Survivor even more than Millions. But that's 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:51.520 a little bit how I'm feeling today too. This is 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:54.280 I didn't have a horrible betting weekend, but because Millions 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:56.440 went so bad after, like, you know, I had been 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:58.439 cruising and it's just been so bad in the past 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:00.320 couple of weeks, You're like, Oh, what a good if. 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:02.000 You had told me before the season, You're like, Gil, 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:05.400 here's the thing. You're gonna just go craps out on 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.520 Survivor early, but you're actually gonna be in it in 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.280 Millions close to Thanksgiving. I'd be like, you're talking to 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:14.000 the wrong guy. You're completely talking to the wrong guy. 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:18.480 This is from Andy ve Andy Vigel says, Gill and Kelly. 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:20.840 Do you guys feel it in the air, the autumn air, 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.560 the brown and red leaves, the Christmas lights going up, 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:27.559 the eggnog for sale, and of course Baseball Awards a 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:31.679 week Oh yeah, good forget Andy's Miami Heat on a 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:35.280 five game winning streak. Baseball Awards For those who missed it, 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.840 would you like the schedule? Here it go Tonight Rookie 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:39.320 of the Year. 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.880 Well, I thought we got like a man or Executive 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.959 of the year. First, No, is that tomorrow executives happened 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:45.480 last week? 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:49.240 Oh I already missed that. Shucks who won? I couldn't 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:52.000 tell you Tonight Rookie of the Year, Tomorrow Manager of 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.960 the Year, Wednesday Cy Young's and then Thursday MVP. All right, 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:58.040 by the way, you don't get your all MLB team 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:04.160 until mid December. All right, what's next? Sunday early window? 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:08.560 No European games? Steelers at the Browns, the six and 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.760 three Steelers at the six and three Browns. I know 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.280 that New England and Indianapolis are not involved in Week eleven, 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.520 they both have buys. But have we seen the end 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:21.560 of Mac Jones? Back Jones who was benched? So I 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:25.440 would say one thousand if Zappi didn't throw that interception 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.560 and then but Zapi like they didn't he didn't practice that, 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.960 he didn't practice like you can't, right, you can't when 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.440 if you decide to bench Mac Jones in that situation, 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.560 you can't go back to that guy like not this season? Right, 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:42.640 wouldn't be surprised either way the paper. That's the thing. 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.760 I wouldn't be shocked either way to either Patriots have 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.880 two wins. Will Bill Belichick be their coach next season? 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:48.400 I don't know. 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.840 I mean they did give they gave Bailey Zappi plenty 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:55.040 of opportunities to steal that job too here past year. 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.360 Yep. So they clearly don't remember he he was like 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:00.760 on the practice squad. They let him go through waivers 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.800 and everything like, they're clearly not big fans of him. Me. No, 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.440 what's the game Sunday? Six and three Steelers at the 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.840 six and three Browns, all the other two teams of 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:11.200 the AFC North, the six and three Steelers of the 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:15.360 six and three brown Steelers yesterday they get it done. 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:19.400 Oh and boy was that nip and tuck with green Bay. 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:22.360 They win it twenty three to nineteen, three and a 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:26.040 half points spread in this game, opening drive seventy five yards, 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:29.120 helped along by seventeen yard pass interference nause in from 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:31.080 four to seven to nothing Pittsburgh and suing drive, green 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:34.000 Bay came right back sixty nine yards love to Dobbs 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:35.680 Romeo Dobbs in the corner of the end zone. What 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.880 a beautiful pass by Jordan Love from eight out seven 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:40.920 to seven, four to forty two left in the first quarter. 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.760 Then the next drive, Pittsburgh goes sixty yards. Jalen Warren 0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:47.000 in from sixteen fourteen to seven Pittsburgh less than a 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.360 minute into the second quarter, seventeen to seven game. Now 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.640 Green Bay gos eighty yards a Dylan forty yard run. 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:54.800 The big play third and sixteen at the Pittsburgh thirty 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:59.800 five Love to Jayden Reed touchdown. Another beautiful pass by 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.120 Jordan Love. Honestly, Jordan Love was great in this game. 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:05.800 Those passes like if he doesn't make them perfectly, this 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:09.960 might have been a blowout. Seventeen to thirteen Pittsburgh. Carlson's 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:14.600 pat I'm talking about Andrews. Carlton's pat blocked. His pat 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:19.000 attempt blocked, so it remains seventeen to thirteen. That never 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.160 comes back and haunts you never four to fourteen left 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:23.520 in the second quarter, that would be the score. Halftime, 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.800 third quarter, Carlson from thirty one made it seventeen to 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.080 sixteen Pittsburgh. Then he made one from twenty eight gave 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.040 Green Bay their first lead to the game at nineteen 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.480 to seventeen, then Boswell from forty nine twenty to nineteen Pittsburgh, 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:34.840 and then after a green Bay three and out and 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:36.880 a subsequent trade of punts, Pittsburgh gets a thirty five 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:40.040 yard Boswell field goal twenty three to nineteen, five to 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.320 fourteen to go. Green Bay matriculates second to nine at 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:45.920 the Pittsburgh fourteen. They're fourteen yards away from taking a 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.480 lead three point thirty two to go. Love picked off 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:50.920 in the end zone on a defect on a deflection 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:53.640 by Patrick Peterson into the hands of Kean O'Neil three 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:55.800 twenty to go. Green Bay would get the ball back 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.400 with fifty nine seconds to go at their own nineteen. 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:01.920 Jordan Love brings them downfield. Spurred on by Love to 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.720 Jayden Reid forty six yard connection and a subsequent fourth 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:07.400 and two conversion, green Bay gets into the Pittsburgh sixteen 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:11.120 three seconds left. Love picked by demonte Caze ball game 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.240 twenty three to nineteen. Pittsburgh holds on and courtesy of 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:17.280 the missed extra point, they cover pick at fourteen of 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:20.879 twenty three for one, twenty six no touchdowns, no Pixie 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.639 to sack once Jalen Warren fifteen for one on one 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.200 on the ground in a touchdown. Pittsburgh outgained by green 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:28.320 Bay three ninety nine to three twenty four. Why is 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:30.840 that significant? They're six and three and they've been out 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:35.320 gained in every single game this season. Mike Tomlin and 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.959 the Magic Beans there plus two and turnovers. Those two 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:40.080 picks at the end were the keys to preserve the 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:44.359 win at Cleveland DeShawn yesterday and that win, that comfort 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:47.040 behind win over Baltimore. Deshaun Watson was twenty of thirty 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.120 four for two thirteen, one touchdown, one pick. You sacked 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.080 four times, eight carries for thirty seven yards. Jerome Ford 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:55.560 seventeen for one oh seven, Cooper Mariy Cooper six for 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.520 ninety eight through the air, ten penalties for fifty five 0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:01.080 yards for Cleveland Pittsburgh at Cleveland six and three teams, 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:04.160 they are not at all similar. I will say Cleveland 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:04.720 by six. 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.560 Okay, just real quick. This is Deshaun Watson wasn't a 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:13.159 walking boot after the game yesterday. He did speak postgame though, instead, 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:15.840 I'll be fine right now. I'm not feeling well, but 0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:18.320 I'll be fine. I'll be ready to go, ready to go. 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.560 You had Steelers by our Browns by six. It is 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:26.000 three and a half over at DraftKings. Mostly fours out 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:27.040 there right now. 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:30.080 Give me the Browns, I think. I think you're right. 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:33.800 That seems too low. At some point this has to 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:37.360 implode on Pittsburgh. I would think so too. I would 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:39.359 think so. I don't really feel comfortable begging the Browns, 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:41.640 just as I've been very skeptical of how healthy, how 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:44.520 healthy Deshaun is if he doesn't know he's got another injury. 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:47.200 But yeah, and by the way, he hasn't been lightening 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:48.800 up exactly. I thought he was a lot better than 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:51.520 the alternative. I thought his arm looks better yesterday fro. 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:53.040 I didn't get to see a ton where I was 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:53.960 on the air for a lot of it. 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.479 But he I thought he had some He had some 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:58.439 air under that ball, a little bit more. It was 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:00.680