WEBVTT - Fed Leaning to More Hikes; Leaked Documents Latest

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<v Speaker 1>From the Bloomberg interacted Berger's Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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<v Speaker 1>Break for Thursday, April thirteenth. Coming up today, the Fed

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<v Speaker 1>looks ready to high rates again despite signs of a

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<v Speaker 1>looming recession. We get another key reading on inflation. This morning.

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden continues his trip to Ireland. We take you

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<v Speaker 1>to Dublin for the latest and new development. Son who

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<v Speaker 1>may be behind the massive leak of secret US documents

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<v Speaker 1>of Fenderal Appeals Court? Hans preserved access to an abortion

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<v Speaker 1>drug for now? And renst in Manhattan have reached record highs.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm John Tucker. Those stories straight ahead. I'm John stash

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<v Speaker 1>Award Sports. The Yankees rallied to win in Cleveland, the

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<v Speaker 1>Mets meet the Padres, and the Islanders won the Clinton

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<v Speaker 1>plaoff spot. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break,

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<v Speaker 1>The business news you need disturn your day, and just

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<v Speaker 1>one fifteen minute podcast each pointing on Apple, Spotify, The

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Appen everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Cameron Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 1>stories we're following today. We begin this morning with a

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<v Speaker 1>bevy of news on the global economy starting here in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. Despite fears of a looming recession, FED officials

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<v Speaker 1>appear on track to extend their run of interest rate

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<v Speaker 1>hikes when they meet next month. Here's San Francisco Fed

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<v Speaker 1>President Mary Daily looking ahead. There are good reasons to

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<v Speaker 1>think the policy may have to tighten more to bring

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<v Speaker 1>inflation down, but there are also good reasons to think

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<v Speaker 1>that the economy may continue to slow even without additional

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<v Speaker 1>policy adjustments. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily is not

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<v Speaker 1>a voting member this year on the FOMC. Well, Nathan,

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed will have more data to digest later this morning,

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<v Speaker 1>a day after we saw consumer prices show signs of

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<v Speaker 1>moderating in March, the latest reading on producer prices comes

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<v Speaker 1>out today. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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<v Speaker 1>The good inflation news is wholesale prices have been coming

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<v Speaker 1>down faster than retail. While the consumer Price index rose

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<v Speaker 1>five percent last month, the producer race indexes forecaster to

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<v Speaker 1>come in almost half that, helping the most dropping commodity prices,

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<v Speaker 1>bringing down food and energy costs. While there isn't a

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<v Speaker 1>direct connection between the CPI and PPI indexes, the producer

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<v Speaker 1>data offer hope for a continued fall at the retail level,

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<v Speaker 1>so good news in the producer numbers may lead to

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<v Speaker 1>another drop in bond yields. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Mike.

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<v Speaker 1>In Europe, the UK economy stalled unexpectedly in February. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get the details on that line from Bloomberg's un Parts

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<v Speaker 1>in London. Good morning, Huen, Good morning Nathan and Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been a winter of industrial action in the UK.

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<v Speaker 1>Strikes across public transit, health services and elsewhere were a

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<v Speaker 1>key factor in February's GDP reading, which showed zero growth

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<v Speaker 1>for the month. But there was better use for a

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<v Speaker 1>she Senac's government. With January's prints revised up to north

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<v Speaker 1>point four percent growth. The data reduces the risk of

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<v Speaker 1>recession this year, but still leaves the UK on track

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<v Speaker 1>for an extended period of stagnation. In London, Immune Parts,

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<v Speaker 1>Boomberg Daybreak, Thank you and thanks, and there's more e

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<v Speaker 1>mc data this morning. In Asia, China's exports unexpectedly rose

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<v Speaker 1>last month thanks to improving demand from Europe and most

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<v Speaker 1>of Asia. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis as Moore

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<v Speaker 1>from Hong Kong. A big surprise here. Exports up fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>point eight percent from a year earlier. We saw a

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<v Speaker 1>pickup in demand in Southeast Asia, South Korea and Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>The estimate was for a drop of more than seven percent. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the divergence in the projected and the actual was the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest sense twenty eighteen. We've seen exports contract from late

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty two as demand in the US, the EU

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<v Speaker 1>and other countries lost momentum. This game in March was

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<v Speaker 1>the first in six months. Bloomberg Economics is not convinced though,

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<v Speaker 1>that it will continue, and imports dropped one point four

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<v Speaker 1>percent in On Kong. Bryan Curtis, Bloomberg Day Break. Thanks Brian.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's turn to politics now. President Biden's in Dublin on

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<v Speaker 1>the second day of his three day visit to Ireland.

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<v Speaker 1>He will meet with the Prime Minister Leo Radker and

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<v Speaker 1>address the Irish Parliament. President Biden was in Northern Ireland yesterday,

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<v Speaker 1>calling on leaders there to put aside post breaks at

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<v Speaker 1>differences that have kept government at a standstill. A government

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<v Speaker 1>that works to find ways through hard problems together, it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to draw even greater opportunity in this region. So

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<v Speaker 1>I hope the Assembly and the Executive will soon be restored.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a judgment for you to make, not me, but

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<v Speaker 1>I hope it happens. The President Biden spoke yesterday in

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<v Speaker 1>Belfast to mark the twenty fifth anniversary of the Good

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<v Speaker 1>Friday Agreement. Donna See and Ruey's a fellow at the

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<v Speaker 1>Center for Strategic and International Studies. The President himself said,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, peace was not inevitable. I would say it

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<v Speaker 1>also was not guaranteed even after the signing of the agreement.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's really important to mark that anniversary so that

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<v Speaker 1>we can all remember there's a lot that needs to

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<v Speaker 1>be done to sustain that piece and move beyond some

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<v Speaker 1>of these models of segregated politics in Northern Ireland. Donna

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<v Speaker 1>See and Ruey with CSIS, was a guest on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Sound On with Joe Matthew. Catch the show weekdays at

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<v Speaker 1>one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Well back in Washington, Nathan,

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<v Speaker 1>we have new developments this morning on who may be

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<v Speaker 1>behind the massive leak of secret US documents that had

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<v Speaker 1>been posted online for weeks, and Amy Morris says the

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<v Speaker 1>details from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington.

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<v Speaker 1>The documents were linked to an online platform called Discord,

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<v Speaker 1>popular with gamers, and on that platform is a smaller

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<v Speaker 1>chat room made up of young men and boys who

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<v Speaker 1>share a love of guns and military gear. The Washington

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<v Speaker 1>Post spoke with members of that chat room, and one,

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<v Speaker 1>a minor, agreed to be interviewed. He spoke on condition

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<v Speaker 1>of anonymity and with his parents' permission, and says the

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<v Speaker 1>leaker goes by OG, and that is not working with

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<v Speaker 1>foreign governments. I want to keep OG's identity secret because

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<v Speaker 1>I still care for him like he's a family member.

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<v Speaker 1>He is not a Russian operative. He's not a Ukrainian operative,

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<v Speaker 1>he says. OG works on a military base. Discord has

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<v Speaker 1>released a statement saying it's cooperating with law enforcement in Washington.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Amy Morris, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Amy, and in entirely

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<v Speaker 1>different news out of Washington. Looks like one of the

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<v Speaker 1>world's richest people will not be adding a football team

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<v Speaker 1>to his toy chest. Let's get the latest on that

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<v Speaker 1>Live with Bloomberg, Steve Rappaport, Steve, Good Morning, Nathan and Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>Source tells us Jeff Bezos will not assume command of

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<v Speaker 1>the Washington Commanders. The Amazon founder was considered a frontrunner

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<v Speaker 1>to acquire the team from Dan and Tania Snyder. They

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<v Speaker 1>began exploring options following relevations of the team's toxic work environment.

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<v Speaker 1>Last month, a group of investors, including NBA legend Magic Johnson,

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<v Speaker 1>made a bid for the Commanders. The Snyder's asking prices

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<v Speaker 1>said to be nearly six billion dollars, a record amount

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<v Speaker 1>for an NFL franchise. Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Daybreak. It is sixty seven degrees in New York.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to be sunny and warm today with highs

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<v Speaker 1>in the low eighties. We'll get down to the low

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<v Speaker 1>sixties tonight under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Time

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<v Speaker 1>now to take a look at some of the other

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<v Speaker 1>stories making news in New York and around the world

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<v Speaker 1>with bloombergs John Tucker, Good morning, John, Yeah. Nathan of

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<v Speaker 1>FENDERL Peel's Corps. Hans preserved access to an apportioned abortion

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<v Speaker 1>drug for now, but under tighter rules that would allow

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<v Speaker 1>the drug not only to be dispensed up to seven weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>not ten, and not by mail by two to one vote.

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<v Speaker 1>A panel of three judges narrowed for now a decision

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<v Speaker 1>by a record judge in Texas that had completely blocked

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<v Speaker 1>the FDA's approval of the drug. Following a lawsuit by

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<v Speaker 1>methapristone's opponents, former President Donald Trump has filed a five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred million dollars lawsuit against his former attorney, Michael Cohen

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<v Speaker 1>for allegedly violating their attorney client bond and spreading with

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<v Speaker 1>The lawsuit claims is embarrassing at detrimental lies. Public statements

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<v Speaker 1>by Cohen helped form the basis for last week's criminal

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<v Speaker 1>indictment of Trump by the Manhattan DA. Rans in Manhattan

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<v Speaker 1>have reached record highs and the busy season isn't even

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<v Speaker 1>here yet. Let's find out more in this report from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. The median monthly raid rose to a

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<v Speaker 1>record high four thousand, one hundred seventy five dollars in March.

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<v Speaker 1>That's according to a report by appraiser Miller Samuel and

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<v Speaker 1>the brokerage Douglas Element Real Estate. And that's up twenty

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<v Speaker 1>five percent from the previous peak reached in July, and

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<v Speaker 1>almost thirteen percent more than a year ago, apartment hunters

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<v Speaker 1>have not been able to catch a break, even as

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<v Speaker 1>more units became available and the borough's vacancy rate continued

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<v Speaker 1>to tick up, and the busiest and most expensive period

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<v Speaker 1>of the year for rentals traditionally July and August, is

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<v Speaker 1>still ahead, signaling more record highs to come. Jeff Bellinger

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<v Speaker 1>bloom Bird Day Break. Diane Feinstein has been a voice

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<v Speaker 1>for California the un Senate for thirty years. Now some

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<v Speaker 1>of her colleagues one are gone. The eighty nine year

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<v Speaker 1>old senator has been absent from Washington for about two months,

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<v Speaker 1>taking out a key Democratic vote Wednesday. Representative Roquehanna Fellow

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<v Speaker 1>California twitted what many of his Democratic colleagues have long whispered,

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<v Speaker 1>it's obvious she can no longer fulfill her duties in

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<v Speaker 1>the race for president. In twenty twenty four, a South

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<v Speaker 1>Carolina's Senator Tim Scott launching a presidential exploratory committee, and

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<v Speaker 1>without referencing the former president's name, offering himself as an

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<v Speaker 1>alternative to Donald Trump. I was raised by a single

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<v Speaker 1>mother in poverty. The spoons in our apartment were plastic,

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<v Speaker 1>not silver. Senate, it's only blank Republican insisting mccrants quote

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<v Speaker 1>weaponized race to dividus, pitching his life story as proof

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<v Speaker 1>of a different path forward. Global News twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 1>a day, Power and buy more than twenty seven hundred

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<v Speaker 1>journalist and an analyst in more than one hundred twenty countries.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm John Tucker, DC is Bloomberg Nathan. Thank you, John.

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<v Speaker 1>Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John Stashower.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning nighth and first time since two thousand and seven,

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<v Speaker 1>all three New York area hockey teams are head of

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<v Speaker 1>the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The last of the three to

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<v Speaker 1>earn entry, The Islanders did so with a four two

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<v Speaker 1>win over Montreal at the Ubs Arena. Rock Nelson scored twice,

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<v Speaker 1>finishes the regular season with thirty six goals. Islanders in

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<v Speaker 1>the first round will play either Boston Carolina or the Devils.

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<v Speaker 1>The Devils could also play the Rangers, or they could

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<v Speaker 1>end up playing Florida. It'll all get sorted out after tonight.

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<v Speaker 1>Also after tonight, we'll know the teams that'll be seated

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<v Speaker 1>eighth in the NBA playoffs. Chicago will play at Miami.

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<v Speaker 1>Oklahoma City goes to Minnesota, Bulls and Thunder both one

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<v Speaker 1>last night on the road next ready for Game one

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<v Speaker 1>Saturday night at Cleveland. The obvious storyline to this series

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<v Speaker 1>the Knicks tried all off season unsuccessfully to acquire Donovan

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<v Speaker 1>Mitchell from Utah. He ended up instead with the Calves.

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<v Speaker 1>The Knicks coach is Tom Tibotock. He's a great player,

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<v Speaker 1>right you're looking at what he's accomplished in the playoffs.

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<v Speaker 1>He's a very accomplished playoff player. So we're gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>to be at our best and throw a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>than just Donovan. And it's not just Donovan, because he's

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<v Speaker 1>obviously a superstar. Garland, he and Garland together, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we add in Mowgli and al and Jib's not sure

0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:36.920
<v Speaker 1>if Julius Randall will return from his ankle and dream

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<v Speaker 1>played for the Nixon Saturday. The Yankees have played four series.

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<v Speaker 1>They've won them all, only the fifth time they've done that.

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<v Speaker 1>Four three win at Cleveland after trailing early on three nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>Another home run for Frankie Cordero his fourth and seven games.

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<v Speaker 1>Mets got home runs from Peter Lonzo and Francisco Lindor

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<v Speaker 1>beat San Diego five to two. Tampa Bay beat the

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<v Speaker 1>Red stops nine to seven, the Razor twelve and oh

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<v Speaker 1>they can tie the MLB record for best start ever

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<v Speaker 1>with a win. Today, John Stashower Bloomberg Sport live from

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<v Speaker 1>coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston

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<v Speaker 1>to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius Examp, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar. The policy path for the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve is in focus this morning after the latest

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<v Speaker 1>reetings on inflation and the minutes from the Central Bank's

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<v Speaker 1>previous meeting. Despite calls for a mild recession later this year,

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed did go ahead with a quarter percentage point

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<v Speaker 1>interest rate hike. So what's in store next month? Let's

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<v Speaker 1>bring in Simon French for some analysis. Chief economist at

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<v Speaker 1>Panmer Gordon Simon, It's good to speak with you. I

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<v Speaker 1>wonder what your read is on the latest Fed minutes.

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<v Speaker 1>Why did the head go ahead with that hike despite

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<v Speaker 1>what they were hearing from the staff that we could

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<v Speaker 1>see a mild recession by the end of this year. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>good morning, Nason, and pushed to join you. So my

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<v Speaker 1>reading of it is This is uncomfortable core inflation generating

0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.280
<v Speaker 1>in the second half of the next year, of this year,

0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>stagflationary conditions in the US economy. Now, that is where

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:20.720
<v Speaker 1>central bankers, particularly on the Federal Reserve Policymaking Committee, are

0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:24.640
<v Speaker 1>going to be very uncomfortable with the backdrop of doing

0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:27.680
<v Speaker 1>not just the tightening that they did in March, but

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:31.920
<v Speaker 1>the expectation that they will further tighten in May in

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.520
<v Speaker 1>order to squeeze out the last part of what is

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:39.559
<v Speaker 1>uncomfortable core pricing increases against the backdrop, as you rightly say,

0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>of an expected to slow down a mild recession in

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 1>the United States. But to some extent, that mild recession

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:50.240
<v Speaker 1>will be a function of how rapid the recovery from

0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:54.360
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic was and how much consumers have leveraged themselves

0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.640
<v Speaker 1>in terms of divesting of their savings and adding new

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.560
<v Speaker 1>credit card and loan debt. Is I call for a

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 1>recession exacerbated by what we've seen in the banking sector,

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:10.040
<v Speaker 1>the regional bank collapses and the potential for further credit tightening.

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 1>So I think there's two parts of this. Is the

0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:20.600
<v Speaker 1>direct tightening of financial conditions that came from reduced risk

0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:25.600
<v Speaker 1>appetite from lenders having seen what seems like a sort

0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.160
<v Speaker 1>of a quite considerable challenge to the regional banking network

0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:32.720
<v Speaker 1>in the United States. But there is also a second

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:37.040
<v Speaker 1>order effect, which is the propensity of businesses and consumers

0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:41.680
<v Speaker 1>to take on credit against this backdrop, against the backdrop

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 1>where risk appetite, when you'll have concerns over the underlying

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:49.120
<v Speaker 1>banking system is undoubtedly going to pull back. And I

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 1>think this is what we got from the commentary from

0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 1>the economists within the Federal Reserve, is there is expected

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:58.160
<v Speaker 1>to be that second order effect on sentiment even if

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:04.760
<v Speaker 1>headline interest rates and lending criteria for US businesses in

0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:09.079
<v Speaker 1>US households doesn't fall out, particularly from the events of

0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 1>the banking crisis of recent weeks. Is that a factor

0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 1>that could steer the FED, that could lead it to,

0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 1>if not pause, pull back on rate hikes. Certainly, And

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:24.160
<v Speaker 1>we have to say, even in advance of the banking

0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>sector fallout, there was already voices and we saw them

0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 1>again in the minutes yesterday within the Federal Reserve saying, look,

0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 1>we have done more than four hundred bases points of

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 1>tightening into this economy, and monetary policy does not happen instantaneously.

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 1>It famously has long and variable lags, and those lags

0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:47.840
<v Speaker 1>are probably eighteen months to two years. And in that environment,

0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:51.880
<v Speaker 1>there will be an element within the Federal Reserve voting

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.120
<v Speaker 1>group who will say, look, we have to see how

0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 1>what we have done already impacts the economy over the

0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 1>next twelve eighteen months, two years. Is to ascertain whether

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 1>we've done enough tightening or not, because it is impossible

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.640
<v Speaker 1>to say at this point with any certainty as to

0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>what that impact will be of leaving the lower bound,

0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:12.400
<v Speaker 1>which we've been stuck at for the best part of

0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:16.280
<v Speaker 1>a decade. We get producer prices later on this morning,

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.000
<v Speaker 1>what's your expectation there and how much of a factor

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 1>does that play into what the Fed could do next month. Yes,

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.920
<v Speaker 1>so producer price is normally a bit of a backwater

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>of economic data, and I think producer prices will be

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>a considerable slowdown. We saw in the services data last

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 1>week that US businesses were seeing input costs now slowing

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:45.040
<v Speaker 1>and in some cases falling, but their output costs were

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:50.040
<v Speaker 1>still rising pretty high. And that obviously brings into interview

0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.720
<v Speaker 1>of the fear of profit profiteering from the corporate sector.

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:56.840
<v Speaker 1>A very big theme on Capitol Hill. I think that's

0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.400
<v Speaker 1>a really difficult optic for a central bank that is

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.840
<v Speaker 1>trying to stay a political adness. It's very political if

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 1>it feels the corporate sector seeing falling producer prices is

0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:11.200
<v Speaker 1>still passing on pre considerable cost increases the consumer base.

0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.480
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