1
00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:06,240
Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg interacted Berger's Studios. This is Bloomberg day

2
00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,879
Speaker 1: Break for Thursday, April thirteenth. Coming up today, the Fed

3
00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,760
Speaker 1: looks ready to high rates again despite signs of a

4
00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:16,560
Speaker 1: looming recession. We get another key reading on inflation. This morning.

5
00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,479
Speaker 1: President Biden continues his trip to Ireland. We take you

6
00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:22,400
Speaker 1: to Dublin for the latest and new development. Son who

7
00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:25,599
Speaker 1: may be behind the massive leak of secret US documents

8
00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,120
Speaker 1: of Fenderal Appeals Court? Hans preserved access to an abortion

9
00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,920
Speaker 1: drug for now? And renst in Manhattan have reached record highs.

10
00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker. Those stories straight ahead. I'm John stash

11
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,600
Speaker 1: Award Sports. The Yankees rallied to win in Cleveland, the

12
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,440
Speaker 1: Mets meet the Padres, and the Islanders won the Clinton

13
00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:46,240
Speaker 1: plaoff spot. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break,

14
00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,159
Speaker 1: The business news you need disturn your day, and just

15
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,559
Speaker 1: one fifteen minute podcast each pointing on Apple, Spotify, The

16
00:00:53,600 --> 00:01:00,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Appen everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning,

17
00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Cameron Moscow. Here are the

18
00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,120
Speaker 1: stories we're following today. We begin this morning with a

19
00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,679
Speaker 1: bevy of news on the global economy starting here in

20
00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:12,360
Speaker 1: the US. Despite fears of a looming recession, FED officials

21
00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:15,000
Speaker 1: appear on track to extend their run of interest rate

22
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,120
Speaker 1: hikes when they meet next month. Here's San Francisco Fed

23
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,680
Speaker 1: President Mary Daily looking ahead. There are good reasons to

24
00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,560
Speaker 1: think the policy may have to tighten more to bring

25
00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,360
Speaker 1: inflation down, but there are also good reasons to think

26
00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,840
Speaker 1: that the economy may continue to slow even without additional

27
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,480
Speaker 1: policy adjustments. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily is not

28
00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,600
Speaker 1: a voting member this year on the FOMC. Well, Nathan,

29
00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,840
Speaker 1: the Fed will have more data to digest later this morning,

30
00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,440
Speaker 1: a day after we saw consumer prices show signs of

31
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,560
Speaker 1: moderating in March, the latest reading on producer prices comes

32
00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,560
Speaker 1: out today. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

33
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,560
Speaker 1: The good inflation news is wholesale prices have been coming

34
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,880
Speaker 1: down faster than retail. While the consumer Price index rose

35
00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,200
Speaker 1: five percent last month, the producer race indexes forecaster to

36
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:05,320
Speaker 1: come in almost half that, helping the most dropping commodity prices,

37
00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,400
Speaker 1: bringing down food and energy costs. While there isn't a

38
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:12,400
Speaker 1: direct connection between the CPI and PPI indexes, the producer

39
00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,400
Speaker 1: data offer hope for a continued fall at the retail level,

40
00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,480
Speaker 1: so good news in the producer numbers may lead to

41
00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,799
Speaker 1: another drop in bond yields. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Mike.

42
00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,639
Speaker 1: In Europe, the UK economy stalled unexpectedly in February. Let's

43
00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,239
Speaker 1: get the details on that line from Bloomberg's un Parts

44
00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,920
Speaker 1: in London. Good morning, Huen, Good morning Nathan and Karen.

45
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 1: It's been a winter of industrial action in the UK.

46
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,400
Speaker 1: Strikes across public transit, health services and elsewhere were a

47
00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,120
Speaker 1: key factor in February's GDP reading, which showed zero growth

48
00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,239
Speaker 1: for the month. But there was better use for a

49
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,839
Speaker 1: she Senac's government. With January's prints revised up to north

50
00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:51,120
Speaker 1: point four percent growth. The data reduces the risk of

51
00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,840
Speaker 1: recession this year, but still leaves the UK on track

52
00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,160
Speaker 1: for an extended period of stagnation. In London, Immune Parts,

53
00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,760
Speaker 1: Boomberg Daybreak, Thank you and thanks, and there's more e

54
00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,799
Speaker 1: mc data this morning. In Asia, China's exports unexpectedly rose

55
00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,920
Speaker 1: last month thanks to improving demand from Europe and most

56
00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,959
Speaker 1: of Asia. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis as Moore

57
00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,480
Speaker 1: from Hong Kong. A big surprise here. Exports up fourteen

58
00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,160
Speaker 1: point eight percent from a year earlier. We saw a

59
00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,519
Speaker 1: pickup in demand in Southeast Asia, South Korea and Europe.

60
00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,200
Speaker 1: The estimate was for a drop of more than seven percent. Now,

61
00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,679
Speaker 1: the divergence in the projected and the actual was the

62
00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 1: biggest sense twenty eighteen. We've seen exports contract from late

63
00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,560
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two as demand in the US, the EU

64
00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,880
Speaker 1: and other countries lost momentum. This game in March was

65
00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,680
Speaker 1: the first in six months. Bloomberg Economics is not convinced though,

66
00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,000
Speaker 1: that it will continue, and imports dropped one point four

67
00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,119
Speaker 1: percent in On Kong. Bryan Curtis, Bloomberg Day Break. Thanks Brian.

68
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,840
Speaker 1: Let's turn to politics now. President Biden's in Dublin on

69
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,080
Speaker 1: the second day of his three day visit to Ireland.

70
00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,040
Speaker 1: He will meet with the Prime Minister Leo Radker and

71
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,480
Speaker 1: address the Irish Parliament. President Biden was in Northern Ireland yesterday,

72
00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,000
Speaker 1: calling on leaders there to put aside post breaks at

73
00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,360
Speaker 1: differences that have kept government at a standstill. A government

74
00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 1: that works to find ways through hard problems together, it's

75
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,600
Speaker 1: going to draw even greater opportunity in this region. So

76
00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 1: I hope the Assembly and the Executive will soon be restored.

77
00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:15,400
Speaker 1: That's a judgment for you to make, not me, but

78
00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:17,840
Speaker 1: I hope it happens. The President Biden spoke yesterday in

79
00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,080
Speaker 1: Belfast to mark the twenty fifth anniversary of the Good

80
00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,520
Speaker 1: Friday Agreement. Donna See and Ruey's a fellow at the

81
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,400
Speaker 1: Center for Strategic and International Studies. The President himself said,

82
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,440
Speaker 1: you know, peace was not inevitable. I would say it

83
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,799
Speaker 1: also was not guaranteed even after the signing of the agreement.

84
00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,440
Speaker 1: So it's really important to mark that anniversary so that

85
00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,800
Speaker 1: we can all remember there's a lot that needs to

86
00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,160
Speaker 1: be done to sustain that piece and move beyond some

87
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,159
Speaker 1: of these models of segregated politics in Northern Ireland. Donna

88
00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,480
Speaker 1: See and Ruey with CSIS, was a guest on Bloomberg

89
00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew. Catch the show weekdays at

90
00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,039
Speaker 1: one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Well back in Washington, Nathan,

91
00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,280
Speaker 1: we have new developments this morning on who may be

92
00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,360
Speaker 1: behind the massive leak of secret US documents that had

93
00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,840
Speaker 1: been posted online for weeks, and Amy Morris says the

94
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 1: details from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington.

95
00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,560
Speaker 1: The documents were linked to an online platform called Discord,

96
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 1: popular with gamers, and on that platform is a smaller

97
00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 1: chat room made up of young men and boys who

98
00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,200
Speaker 1: share a love of guns and military gear. The Washington

99
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,600
Speaker 1: Post spoke with members of that chat room, and one,

100
00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,200
Speaker 1: a minor, agreed to be interviewed. He spoke on condition

101
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,880
Speaker 1: of anonymity and with his parents' permission, and says the

102
00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,040
Speaker 1: leaker goes by OG, and that is not working with

103
00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,240
Speaker 1: foreign governments. I want to keep OG's identity secret because

104
00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,240
Speaker 1: I still care for him like he's a family member.

105
00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,280
Speaker 1: He is not a Russian operative. He's not a Ukrainian operative,

106
00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,480
Speaker 1: he says. OG works on a military base. Discord has

107
00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:45,200
Speaker 1: released a statement saying it's cooperating with law enforcement in Washington.

108
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,440
Speaker 1: I'm Amy Morris, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Amy, and in entirely

109
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,919
Speaker 1: different news out of Washington. Looks like one of the

110
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,039
Speaker 1: world's richest people will not be adding a football team

111
00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,360
Speaker 1: to his toy chest. Let's get the latest on that

112
00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,839
Speaker 1: Live with Bloomberg, Steve Rappaport, Steve, Good Morning, Nathan and Karen.

113
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,760
Speaker 1: Source tells us Jeff Bezos will not assume command of

114
00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,160
Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders. The Amazon founder was considered a frontrunner

115
00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,600
Speaker 1: to acquire the team from Dan and Tania Snyder. They

116
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,920
Speaker 1: began exploring options following relevations of the team's toxic work environment.

117
00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,799
Speaker 1: Last month, a group of investors, including NBA legend Magic Johnson,

118
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,480
Speaker 1: made a bid for the Commanders. The Snyder's asking prices

119
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,119
Speaker 1: said to be nearly six billion dollars, a record amount

120
00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,320
Speaker 1: for an NFL franchise. Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport,

121
00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:31,240
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. It is sixty seven degrees in New York.

122
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:32,880
Speaker 1: It's going to be sunny and warm today with highs

123
00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 1: in the low eighties. We'll get down to the low

124
00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,279
Speaker 1: sixties tonight under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Time

125
00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:38,440
Speaker 1: now to take a look at some of the other

126
00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,600
Speaker 1: stories making news in New York and around the world

127
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,880
Speaker 1: with bloombergs John Tucker, Good morning, John, Yeah. Nathan of

128
00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,880
Speaker 1: FENDERL Peel's Corps. Hans preserved access to an apportioned abortion

129
00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 1: drug for now, but under tighter rules that would allow

130
00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:53,120
Speaker 1: the drug not only to be dispensed up to seven weeks,

131
00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,520
Speaker 1: not ten, and not by mail by two to one vote.

132
00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,600
Speaker 1: A panel of three judges narrowed for now a decision

133
00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,039
Speaker 1: by a record judge in Texas that had completely blocked

134
00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,400
Speaker 1: the FDA's approval of the drug. Following a lawsuit by

135
00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,520
Speaker 1: methapristone's opponents, former President Donald Trump has filed a five

136
00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,680
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars lawsuit against his former attorney, Michael Cohen

137
00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,280
Speaker 1: for allegedly violating their attorney client bond and spreading with

138
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:22,360
Speaker 1: The lawsuit claims is embarrassing at detrimental lies. Public statements

139
00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,040
Speaker 1: by Cohen helped form the basis for last week's criminal

140
00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:29,040
Speaker 1: indictment of Trump by the Manhattan DA. Rans in Manhattan

141
00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,480
Speaker 1: have reached record highs and the busy season isn't even

142
00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,840
Speaker 1: here yet. Let's find out more in this report from

143
00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. The median monthly raid rose to a

144
00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:42,080
Speaker 1: record high four thousand, one hundred seventy five dollars in March.

145
00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 1: That's according to a report by appraiser Miller Samuel and

146
00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,000
Speaker 1: the brokerage Douglas Element Real Estate. And that's up twenty

147
00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,200
Speaker 1: five percent from the previous peak reached in July, and

148
00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,160
Speaker 1: almost thirteen percent more than a year ago, apartment hunters

149
00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,000
Speaker 1: have not been able to catch a break, even as

150
00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,760
Speaker 1: more units became available and the borough's vacancy rate continued

151
00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,080
Speaker 1: to tick up, and the busiest and most expensive period

152
00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,520
Speaker 1: of the year for rentals traditionally July and August, is

153
00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 1: still ahead, signaling more record highs to come. Jeff Bellinger

154
00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,119
Speaker 1: bloom Bird Day Break. Diane Feinstein has been a voice

155
00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,160
Speaker 1: for California the un Senate for thirty years. Now some

156
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,920
Speaker 1: of her colleagues one are gone. The eighty nine year

157
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,880
Speaker 1: old senator has been absent from Washington for about two months,

158
00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:29,600
Speaker 1: taking out a key Democratic vote Wednesday. Representative Roquehanna Fellow

159
00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,559
Speaker 1: California twitted what many of his Democratic colleagues have long whispered,

160
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,400
Speaker 1: it's obvious she can no longer fulfill her duties in

161
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,120
Speaker 1: the race for president. In twenty twenty four, a South

162
00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:45,280
Speaker 1: Carolina's Senator Tim Scott launching a presidential exploratory committee, and

163
00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 1: without referencing the former president's name, offering himself as an

164
00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,480
Speaker 1: alternative to Donald Trump. I was raised by a single

165
00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 1: mother in poverty. The spoons in our apartment were plastic,

166
00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:00,880
Speaker 1: not silver. Senate, it's only blank Republican insisting mccrants quote

167
00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,920
Speaker 1: weaponized race to dividus, pitching his life story as proof

168
00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,280
Speaker 1: of a different path forward. Global News twenty four hours

169
00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,440
Speaker 1: a day, Power and buy more than twenty seven hundred

170
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,360
Speaker 1: journalist and an analyst in more than one hundred twenty countries.

171
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,520
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker, DC is Bloomberg Nathan. Thank you, John.

172
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,520
Speaker 1: Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John Stashower.

173
00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,240
Speaker 1: Good morning nighth and first time since two thousand and seven,

174
00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,559
Speaker 1: all three New York area hockey teams are head of

175
00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:30,400
Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The last of the three to

176
00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 1: earn entry, The Islanders did so with a four two

177
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,640
Speaker 1: win over Montreal at the Ubs Arena. Rock Nelson scored twice,

178
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,720
Speaker 1: finishes the regular season with thirty six goals. Islanders in

179
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,720
Speaker 1: the first round will play either Boston Carolina or the Devils.

180
00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,880
Speaker 1: The Devils could also play the Rangers, or they could

181
00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,680
Speaker 1: end up playing Florida. It'll all get sorted out after tonight.

182
00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 1: Also after tonight, we'll know the teams that'll be seated

183
00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,240
Speaker 1: eighth in the NBA playoffs. Chicago will play at Miami.

184
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,679
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City goes to Minnesota, Bulls and Thunder both one

185
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:00,839
Speaker 1: last night on the road next ready for Game one

186
00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,640
Speaker 1: Saturday night at Cleveland. The obvious storyline to this series

187
00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 1: the Knicks tried all off season unsuccessfully to acquire Donovan

188
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,880
Speaker 1: Mitchell from Utah. He ended up instead with the Calves.

189
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,280
Speaker 1: The Knicks coach is Tom Tibotock. He's a great player,

190
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,160
Speaker 1: right you're looking at what he's accomplished in the playoffs.

191
00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,400
Speaker 1: He's a very accomplished playoff player. So we're gonna have

192
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,439
Speaker 1: to be at our best and throw a lot more

193
00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,120
Speaker 1: than just Donovan. And it's not just Donovan, because he's

194
00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:31,439
Speaker 1: obviously a superstar. Garland, he and Garland together, and then

195
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,040
Speaker 1: we add in Mowgli and al and Jib's not sure

196
00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,920
Speaker 1: if Julius Randall will return from his ankle and dream

197
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,600
Speaker 1: played for the Nixon Saturday. The Yankees have played four series.

198
00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:41,520
Speaker 1: They've won them all, only the fifth time they've done that.

199
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,760
Speaker 1: Four three win at Cleveland after trailing early on three nothing.

200
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:48,360
Speaker 1: Another home run for Frankie Cordero his fourth and seven games.

201
00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,160
Speaker 1: Mets got home runs from Peter Lonzo and Francisco Lindor

202
00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,200
Speaker 1: beat San Diego five to two. Tampa Bay beat the

203
00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,959
Speaker 1: Red stops nine to seven, the Razor twelve and oh

204
00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,440
Speaker 1: they can tie the MLB record for best start ever

205
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:06,040
Speaker 1: with a win. Today, John Stashower Bloomberg Sport live from

206
00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,360
Speaker 1: coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston

207
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,400
Speaker 1: to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius Examp, the Bloomberg

208
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,520
Speaker 1: Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

209
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,960
Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar. The policy path for the

210
00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,600
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is in focus this morning after the latest

211
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,439
Speaker 1: reetings on inflation and the minutes from the Central Bank's

212
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:30,640
Speaker 1: previous meeting. Despite calls for a mild recession later this year,

213
00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,040
Speaker 1: the Fed did go ahead with a quarter percentage point

214
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,880
Speaker 1: interest rate hike. So what's in store next month? Let's

215
00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:41,640
Speaker 1: bring in Simon French for some analysis. Chief economist at

216
00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 1: Panmer Gordon Simon, It's good to speak with you. I

217
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,400
Speaker 1: wonder what your read is on the latest Fed minutes.

218
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,920
Speaker 1: Why did the head go ahead with that hike despite

219
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:54,199
Speaker 1: what they were hearing from the staff that we could

220
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:58,000
Speaker 1: see a mild recession by the end of this year. Yeah,

221
00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,200
Speaker 1: good morning, Nason, and pushed to join you. So my

222
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:07,599
Speaker 1: reading of it is This is uncomfortable core inflation generating

223
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 1: in the second half of the next year, of this year,

224
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,000
Speaker 1: stagflationary conditions in the US economy. Now, that is where

225
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 1: central bankers, particularly on the Federal Reserve Policymaking Committee, are

226
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,640
Speaker 1: going to be very uncomfortable with the backdrop of doing

227
00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,680
Speaker 1: not just the tightening that they did in March, but

228
00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:31,920
Speaker 1: the expectation that they will further tighten in May in

229
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 1: order to squeeze out the last part of what is

230
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:39,559
Speaker 1: uncomfortable core pricing increases against the backdrop, as you rightly say,

231
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,040
Speaker 1: of an expected to slow down a mild recession in

232
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,520
Speaker 1: the United States. But to some extent, that mild recession

233
00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,240
Speaker 1: will be a function of how rapid the recovery from

234
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,360
Speaker 1: the pandemic was and how much consumers have leveraged themselves

235
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,640
Speaker 1: in terms of divesting of their savings and adding new

236
00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:00,560
Speaker 1: credit card and loan debt. Is I call for a

237
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:05,120
Speaker 1: recession exacerbated by what we've seen in the banking sector,

238
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 1: the regional bank collapses and the potential for further credit tightening.

239
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,640
Speaker 1: So I think there's two parts of this. Is the

240
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 1: direct tightening of financial conditions that came from reduced risk

241
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:25,600
Speaker 1: appetite from lenders having seen what seems like a sort

242
00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,160
Speaker 1: of a quite considerable challenge to the regional banking network

243
00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,720
Speaker 1: in the United States. But there is also a second

244
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:37,040
Speaker 1: order effect, which is the propensity of businesses and consumers

245
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:41,680
Speaker 1: to take on credit against this backdrop, against the backdrop

246
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:46,000
Speaker 1: where risk appetite, when you'll have concerns over the underlying

247
00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,120
Speaker 1: banking system is undoubtedly going to pull back. And I

248
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,800
Speaker 1: think this is what we got from the commentary from

249
00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,360
Speaker 1: the economists within the Federal Reserve, is there is expected

250
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 1: to be that second order effect on sentiment even if

251
00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:04,760
Speaker 1: headline interest rates and lending criteria for US businesses in

252
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,079
Speaker 1: US households doesn't fall out, particularly from the events of

253
00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:12,040
Speaker 1: the banking crisis of recent weeks. Is that a factor

254
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 1: that could steer the FED, that could lead it to,

255
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 1: if not pause, pull back on rate hikes. Certainly, And

256
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:24,160
Speaker 1: we have to say, even in advance of the banking

257
00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,000
Speaker 1: sector fallout, there was already voices and we saw them

258
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 1: again in the minutes yesterday within the Federal Reserve saying, look,

259
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,480
Speaker 1: we have done more than four hundred bases points of

260
00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 1: tightening into this economy, and monetary policy does not happen instantaneously.

261
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,880
Speaker 1: It famously has long and variable lags, and those lags

262
00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:47,840
Speaker 1: are probably eighteen months to two years. And in that environment,

263
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,880
Speaker 1: there will be an element within the Federal Reserve voting

264
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,120
Speaker 1: group who will say, look, we have to see how

265
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 1: what we have done already impacts the economy over the

266
00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,720
Speaker 1: next twelve eighteen months, two years. Is to ascertain whether

267
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,040
Speaker 1: we've done enough tightening or not, because it is impossible

268
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 1: to say at this point with any certainty as to

269
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,400
Speaker 1: what that impact will be of leaving the lower bound,

270
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,400
Speaker 1: which we've been stuck at for the best part of

271
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 1: a decade. We get producer prices later on this morning,

272
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 1: what's your expectation there and how much of a factor

273
00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,920
Speaker 1: does that play into what the Fed could do next month. Yes,

274
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 1: so producer price is normally a bit of a backwater

275
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:30,000
Speaker 1: of economic data, and I think producer prices will be

276
00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 1: a considerable slowdown. We saw in the services data last

277
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: week that US businesses were seeing input costs now slowing

278
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 1: and in some cases falling, but their output costs were

279
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:50,040
Speaker 1: still rising pretty high. And that obviously brings into interview

280
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,720
Speaker 1: of the fear of profit profiteering from the corporate sector.

281
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 1: A very big theme on Capitol Hill. I think that's

282
00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 1: a really difficult optic for a central bank that is

283
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,840
Speaker 1: trying to stay a political adness. It's very political if

284
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 1: it feels the corporate sector seeing falling producer prices is

285
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,200
Speaker 1: still passing on pre considerable cost increases the consumer base.

286
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on

287
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 1: the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

288
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed at six am

289
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,880
Speaker 1: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

290
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning

291
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 1: starting at five am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven

292
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,400
Speaker 1: three zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington,

293
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine

294
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 1: to sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station

295
00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 1: is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say

296
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 1: Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast

297
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,800
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Business app, serious XM Channel one nineteen,

298
00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:57,560
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan

299
00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us at and tomorrow

300
00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 1: morning for all the news you need to start your day,

301
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg Daybreak