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Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part

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Speaker 1: of the Volume Podcast Network. I I I'm Chad Millman

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Speaker 1: of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre might beff professional

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Speaker 1: better sign in hunt, Simon, Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing, dude?

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Speaker 1: May first, you know what that means the calendar turns.

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Speaker 1: The mar Key event on the betting calendar in May

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Speaker 1: is the Kentucky Derby, which is this Saturday at Churchill

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Speaker 1: Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The one hundred and fifty first

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Speaker 1: running of the Roses, the greatest two minutes in sports,

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Speaker 1: an American gambling event like none other. Here to help

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Speaker 1: all of us bet and profit on all the festivities

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Speaker 1: in Louisville. Because it's not just about the Derby. Is

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Speaker 1: our Action Network horse racing contributor, one of the very

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Speaker 1: best handicappers in the business, Chicago's finest. We do nothing

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Speaker 1: if not promote anybody from the great city of Chicago.

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Speaker 1: Mister Mike Conti, how are.

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Speaker 3: You, buddy, I'm great. Thanks for having me, guys, super excited.

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Speaker 3: One of my favorite weekends of the year.

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Speaker 1: Listen before we get deep deep, into Mike and all

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Speaker 1: his handicapping knowledge. Quick announcement, I want everyone this is big.

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Speaker 1: This is very big. As a brand new everyone listening

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Speaker 1: to the show needs to go subscribe to at Real

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman on YouTube. That's right, I'm launching a YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna air clips from the favorites. We're gonna air

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Speaker 1: the show live there. It's gonna signlecast on Action and

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Speaker 1: on at at Real Chad Milman. We're gonna have clips

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Speaker 1: on a Egeler basis. I'm going to react to news

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Speaker 1: and infro from the betting world. I'm going to throw

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Speaker 1: up opinions. I'm going to share nuggets from the book

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Speaker 1: I'm reporting, which anybody who likes anything about sports betting

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Speaker 1: is going to enjoy. Like the nugget I had the

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Speaker 1: other day, why do people call it handicapping? Go subscribe

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Speaker 1: to at Real Chad Melman. We are just launching it.

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Speaker 1: Get after it. I will remind you often at Real

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Speaker 1: Chad Melman. Mike, we talked about this on the show

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Speaker 1: the other day. Do you know why it's called handicapping?

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Speaker 3: You know when you just said that chat, I was

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Speaker 3: thinking about it and I, much to my mother's dismay.

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Speaker 3: I could read a horse racing program before I could

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Speaker 3: read a book. I actually don't know why it's called

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Speaker 3: handicapping though.

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Speaker 1: It's called handicapping because the guy who ran the Jockey

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Speaker 1: Club in London in I think the late seventeen hundre

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Speaker 1: undreds or eighteen hundreds, in order to make the races

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Speaker 1: more interesting and get more action from betters, he would

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Speaker 1: add weights to the horses that were the fastest to

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Speaker 1: handicap them. And so they continue to call it handicapping

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Speaker 1: throughout the history of all of sports betting. Isn't that cool?

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Speaker 3: I love that. I had no idea.

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Speaker 1: That's amazing, great little nugget, right, that's what Listen, Mike,

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Speaker 1: you can get stuff like that at at Real Chad

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Speaker 1: Moment on YouTube. So I hope you'll go subscribe. Can

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Speaker 1: you explain for people you just said you knew how

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Speaker 1: to read basically the daily racing form before you could

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Speaker 1: read anything else. Explain how that happened.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So, growing up, my father owned a sports bar

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Speaker 3: in New Haven, Connecticut, and you know, lo and behold,

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Speaker 3: there was this is back in the day when you

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Speaker 3: had to call in your bets and there was a

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Speaker 3: phone booth in the corner of the bar, and that

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Speaker 3: phone booth was reserved to go make your bets. And

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Speaker 3: so every Saturday morning we'd go, we'd open up the

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Speaker 3: bar and we'd sit there with the Daily Racing Form

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Speaker 3: and learned how to read the papers from all of

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Speaker 3: the cast of characters that were at the bar at

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Speaker 3: eight am on a Saturday morning. And that was my

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Speaker 3: first kind of soire into horse racing.

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Speaker 1: God, that's amazing, you know what's great? A I love

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Speaker 1: that it was New Haven, which is about forty five

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Speaker 1: minutes from where I am in West Hartford, Connecticut. But

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Speaker 1: since we're on the subject, the Daily Racing Form was

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Speaker 1: like the key driver of the modern way sports betting

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Speaker 1: happens in the country because the entire thing was about

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Speaker 1: the dissemination of information and it was owned and there

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Speaker 1: were literal wars. There were wars over the the control

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Speaker 1: of this information gangster wars. Simon, you're shaking your head

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Speaker 1: like you've either heard this or you're excited about it.

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Speaker 1: Of people getting killed because to control what was basically

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Speaker 1: the wire services that communicated who was winning and losing

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Speaker 1: horse racing bets throughout the country. Mike, do you know

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Speaker 1: this story.

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Speaker 3: I actually did not know that story either, Simon.

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Speaker 1: Do you know this story.

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Speaker 2: I've heard about it just from Yeah, like what you're

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Speaker 2: talking about old guys telling stories about horse racing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so like the Annenberg media fortune. Annenberg, which I

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Speaker 1: think you know, endows the USC Journalism School. It's a

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Speaker 1: massive philanthropic organization in Philadelphia, Simon, because it owned the

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Speaker 1: Annenberg family owned the Philadelphian Choir. The guy made his

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Speaker 1: money as a circulation director for William Randolph Hurst and

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Speaker 1: he was running newspapers in Chicago, in Milwaukee, Matt Mitchell

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Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. And this was literally like bloody, bloody business.

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Speaker 1: People were being killed to own street corners where they

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Speaker 1: could distribute newspapers because it was so much money. Annenberg

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Speaker 1: was really good at this. Hearst loved him. He made

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Speaker 1: a lot of money, and then he bought the Daily

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Speaker 1: Racing Form, and the Daily Racing Form became his primary

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Speaker 1: driver of income as he grew a massive, massive media empire,

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Speaker 1: and he had the Daily Racing Form for twenty years

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Speaker 1: and this became the primary way through the telegraph that

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Speaker 1: a lot of information was distributed for sports betters. It's

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Speaker 1: a phenomenal story and everyone's going to get to read

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Speaker 1: about it in my book when it comes out in

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Speaker 1: August of twenty twenty seven. And now you get to

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Speaker 1: see this clip on at Real Chad Nolan god on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: I did that all off the top of my head.

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Speaker 1: It just happened, Jenn.

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Speaker 2: I feel like all you're doing right now is figuring

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Speaker 2: out that America's literally built on guys with sports betting

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Speaker 2: and a lot of killing. All these businesses in America

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Speaker 2: you're finding out are like, oh yeah, this guy want

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Speaker 2: to buy sports betting, this guy wanted by horse racing.

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Speaker 2: It's like, what are you uncovering right now? It seems

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Speaker 2: pretty incredible.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty incredible simon how many businesses that we know

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Speaker 1: of today as being legit businesses started as completely illegitimate

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Speaker 1: businesses with deep, deep roots in criminal activity that over

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Speaker 1: time evolved. And we can look at it right now,

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Speaker 1: look at sports betting, look at a lot of the

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Speaker 1: drug trade, like in every single capacity, some of these

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Speaker 1: things over time, by the way alcohol distribution in the twenties,

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Speaker 1: you know, then became something that was legit and legal,

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Speaker 1: like all these things. So much of what powers the

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Speaker 1: domestic economy started as stuff that was very very illicit.

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Speaker 1: But what's not illicit, it's trying to win money. The

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Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, Mike, the Derby is a different race for

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Speaker 1: people who don't know, explain how it's different than you know,

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Speaker 1: regular stakes races, than the other triple Crown races. Give

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Speaker 1: people the differences.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, first and foremost, a horse can only run

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Speaker 3: in the Kentucky Derby one time in his or her life.

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Speaker 3: It is only for three year old horses. I say

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Speaker 3: his or hers. Most of the time it is for

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Speaker 3: three year old colts, male horses. That's not to exclude

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Speaker 3: the phillies, the females. They can run. It is always

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Speaker 3: the first Saturday in May. Most of the time it

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Speaker 3: is the most it's the deepest field. So there are

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Speaker 3: twenty horses in every year's Kentucky Derby. Most of the

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Speaker 3: time these horses at most have run against ten twelve

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Speaker 3: other horses. So they get one chance at this they

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Speaker 3: you know, you get one chance. It's the deepest field

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Speaker 3: that they're going to run in, and up to this

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Speaker 3: point in their careers, this is the longest race out

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Speaker 3: of my in a quarter that these horses have ever run.

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Speaker 1: Is it harder for these horses.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, you know, I think for a number of reasons. One,

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Speaker 3: you talk about the crowd noise, right, horses definitely react

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Speaker 3: to the noise. And when you think about, you know,

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Speaker 3: how packed the stands are and how packed Churchill Downs is,

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Speaker 3: the infield and the grand stands, there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: noise for these horses. There's a lot going on. Again,

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Speaker 3: it is a twenty horse field. A couple of years

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Speaker 3: ago they actually just created a new starting gate for

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Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby so that the one hole wasn't at

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Speaker 3: such a disadvantage starting on the turn. But with that

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Speaker 3: now the starting gates are a little bit tighter, So

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Speaker 3: now you've got a deeper field, a tighter starting gate,

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Speaker 3: all of the noise going a mile and a quarter.

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Speaker 3: And you know, these young three year old horses. You know,

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Speaker 3: for those that don't know, horses cannot start racing until

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Speaker 3: they're two, and most of them start racing, you know,

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Speaker 3: mid summer of their two year old year. So you're

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Speaker 3: talking about horses that have less than a year of

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Speaker 3: total experience ever racing, that are now coming into the

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Speaker 3: biggest race of their lives.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, whenever I watch the Derby and you see them

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Speaker 1: packing the horses into the gates. I always feel the

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Speaker 1: worst for the horses that have to be in there

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Speaker 1: early because even though it takes maybe two minutes total

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Speaker 1: to get twenty horses into the gate, these are really

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Speaker 1: young horses. And the horses in the number one position

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Speaker 1: and the number two position versus if it goes all

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Speaker 1: the way out to twenty, they're in there for a

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Speaker 1: long time, and it seems like it starts to stress

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Speaker 1: the animal a little bit like that in itself seemed

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Speaker 1: like a disadvantage.

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Speaker 3: Without a doubt, you know. And that's it's a very

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Speaker 3: interesting thing, is like how does and you have to

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Speaker 3: give the assistant starter. So those are the guys who

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Speaker 3: are loading the horses and then they're standing in the

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Speaker 3: starting gate with the horses. Their job is to help

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Speaker 3: keep those horses calm. Obviously, the jockey, you know, is

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Speaker 3: on board, and that's part of the jocks job. But

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Speaker 3: you know, an overlooked aspect of this is the assistant

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Speaker 3: starter helping these horses to stay calm while they load

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Speaker 3: before they open the gates.

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Speaker 1: When you watch this, uh, do you get a sense

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Speaker 1: even from that moment, like if you've got a bet

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Speaker 1: that is going to crash as as soon as the

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Speaker 1: gates open, just by how the horses are reacting to

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Speaker 1: being put in the starting.

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Speaker 3: Gate without a doubt. I mean, there's a couple of

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Speaker 3: things you look at right like how are the horses

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Speaker 3: acting in the starting gate? Are they relaxed or you know,

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Speaker 3: are they tossing their head around? The worst thing, obviously

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Speaker 3: is if they have to back a horse out, because

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Speaker 3: that's only going to delay the start even further. And

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Speaker 3: then once you know those starting gates open, there's a

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Speaker 3: huge roar from the crowd and you're talking about twenty

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Speaker 3: horses all sprinting right to that first turn. You know,

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Speaker 3: there are horses, especially the speed horses, that the race

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Speaker 3: is one or lost in the first few jump for them,

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Speaker 3: depending upon how well they break.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you just said, this is such a huge feel

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Speaker 2: of twenty horses, Like what jumps out to you? Those

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Speaker 2: horses you're just right away getting out of there. You

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Speaker 2: don't only want to bet out of this field right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, in terms of horses that I'm tossing,

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Speaker 3: the first horse is the number thirteen publisher. He's a maiden,

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Speaker 3: and for those unfamiliar, a maiden means that they've never

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Speaker 3: won a race. So it is so unique that we

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Speaker 3: have a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. In recent memory,

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Speaker 3: I can't remember another maiden that ran in the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 3: So first and foremost, I'll be tossing the number thirteen Publisher.

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Speaker 3: I'm also tossing the number eleven Flying Mohawk, the number

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Speaker 3: twelve East Avenue, who appears to be the pace of

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Speaker 3: the race and the fastest early horse. I don't think

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Speaker 3: that he's going to be able to last. The number

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Speaker 3: twenty zeroen Almighty. The trainer actually didn't want to run

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Speaker 3: in this race, but obviously every owner's dream is to

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Speaker 3: get their horse to the Kentucky Derby. So the owners

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Speaker 3: of number twenty on Almighty are the ones who really

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Speaker 3: pushed for this race because of that. If the trainer

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Speaker 3: doesn't want to really be in the race, I don't

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Speaker 3: really want that horse on my ticket. Number fifteen Render Judgment.

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Speaker 3: The cool story to number fifteen Render Judgment is he

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Speaker 3: is Toby Keith, Rest in Peace. He owns a stable

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Speaker 3: of horses, and did own a stable of horses that's

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Speaker 3: still in his name. Render Judgment is one of Toby

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Speaker 3: Keith's the first runner for Toby in the Derby, but

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Speaker 3: I am tossing that horse. The number one Citizen Bull

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Speaker 3: is another horse that I will be tossing. And then

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Speaker 3: there are two Japanese horses in this race, one of

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Speaker 3: whom I like. The other one I'm tossing. The one

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Speaker 3: that I'm tossing is number six, Admire Daytona.

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Speaker 1: Bob Baffert coming back, been away a while? What do

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Speaker 1: handicappers think about Baffort? What do they think of his history?

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Speaker 1: Both the good and the bad. For those who don't know,

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Speaker 1: Bob Baffert obviously decade long, decade's long career as a

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Speaker 1: legendary trainer, winning Triple Crown races, but also suspended the

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Speaker 1: past few years because of drug because he was drugging horses.

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Speaker 1: Is that right? Am I allowed to say that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, because he was drugging horses. So this is

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Speaker 1: his first year back. Do you have an opinion on

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Speaker 1: Baffort as a trainer, both the good and the bad?

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Speaker 3: Look this is so. Bafford's got two horses in here.

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Speaker 3: One of them is one of the horses that I'm tossing,

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Speaker 3: number one Citizen Bowl. The other one we'll talk about

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Speaker 3: in a little while. Is number four Rodriguez? Look like

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Speaker 3: you said, Chad, Bob Bafford is one of the greatest

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Speaker 3: horse trainers of all time. He's had two Triple Crown

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Speaker 3: winners in terms of winning the actual Triple Crown, not

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Speaker 3: just winning the Derby or one of the other Triple

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Speaker 3: Crown races. He's a top notch trainer. You know, Do

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Speaker 3: I love Bob Bafford, No, But he's a trainer that

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Speaker 3: you know when he's putting a horse in the race,

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Speaker 3: that the horse is going to most likely be live.

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Speaker 3: And so you've got to consider even though I'm throwing

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Speaker 3: out one of his two runners in.

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Speaker 1: Here, here's a random question. Can you make a living

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Speaker 1: as a handicapper of horses these days?

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Speaker 3: There are people that do? You know? For me, it's

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Speaker 3: much more of the fun and the hobby of it,

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Speaker 3: But there are definitely people that make a living handicapping

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Speaker 3: the horses, right, And these weekends are the best weekends

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Speaker 3: because you mentioned before, Chad, you know, graded steaks races

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Speaker 3: are the premier races of horse racing, and there are

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Speaker 3: three graded stakes races, Grade ones, which is the highest level,

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Speaker 3: Grade two, and Grade three those are your top tier races,

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Speaker 3: and that's where, in my opinion, you get horses that

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Speaker 3: most likely are going to run to their form. You have,

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Speaker 3: you can draw a better opinion of it, you know,

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Speaker 3: But on any given Thursday afternoon when they're running a

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Speaker 3: you know, a claiming five thousand dollars race, meaning that

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Speaker 3: if any of us showed up to the track with

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Speaker 3: five thousand dollars, we could buy the horse out of

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Speaker 3: that race. Those races obviously much harder to handicap, but

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Speaker 3: there are guys and gals that do make a living

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Speaker 3: a handicap and the horses.

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Speaker 1: Journalism, sovereignty. It sounds like this is a theme, like

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Speaker 1: we're turning this into a politics podcast about the state

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Speaker 1: of the country. It's actually the name of two of

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Speaker 1: the horses that have the shortest dots currently as we

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Speaker 1: head to post coming out of Whisper Wednesday, Sandman, do

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Speaker 1: you have an opinion on any of these horses and

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Speaker 1: their chances to win the Derby or do you think

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Speaker 1: they're overpriced and you're going to stay away?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'll start with the last one that you mentioned, Sandman.

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Speaker 3: A couple of months ago. He was a top my

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Speaker 3: selections for the Derby. The interesting thing with Sandman a

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Speaker 3: couple of things. One a closer meaning that he's going

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Speaker 3: to do his best running late. He's not going to

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Speaker 3: be involved in the early stages of this race. So

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Speaker 3: if you bet Sandman and he's towards the back, that's

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Speaker 3: actually where you want him to be. You're hoping for

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Speaker 3: a fast, hot pace up front so that he has

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Speaker 3: something to run into. The challenge, as we talked about,

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Speaker 3: is in a twenty horse field. That means he's going

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Speaker 3: to need to work out a trip. Not always the

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Speaker 3: easiest thing to do, but I do see him, you know,

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Speaker 3: flying late and being in the mix. The other interesting

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Speaker 3: note on Sandman is he's breaking from the seventeen post.

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Speaker 3: The seventeen post is the only post that has never

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Speaker 3: won in the Kentucky Derby, so there's a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a curse and a jinx to the seventeen post.

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Speaker 3: So just something interesting there. Journalism. You mentioned he is

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Speaker 3: the morning line favorite. He is, you know, from all aspects,

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Speaker 3: he looks to be the best horse in this field.

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Speaker 3: Am I going to allow him to beat me? No?

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Speaker 3: But what I will say is that in his last

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Speaker 3: three starts he's only beaten a combined twelve horses his

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Speaker 3: last three starts, they were five horse fields. Yes, he

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Speaker 3: won all three of those races. He's going to need

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Speaker 3: to beat nineteen others come Saturday at post time. And so,

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Speaker 3: you know, I don't know as though that I love

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Speaker 3: that for him. And he found himself in some traffic

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Speaker 3: trouble in a five horse race. Imagine what it's going

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Speaker 3: to be in a twenty horse field. But again, I

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Speaker 3: do feel as though that he's the most talented horse

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Speaker 3: on paper and visually, and all signs are saying, you know,

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Speaker 3: he's training extremely well and he's ready to fire. But

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Speaker 3: you don't have a top jockey trainer combination for journalism

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Speaker 3: with trainer Mike McCarthy and jockey Umberto Respulli.

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Speaker 1: What do you mean You're not going to allow journalism

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Speaker 1: to beat you.

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Speaker 3: What I mean by that is in the way that

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Speaker 3: I structure my bets, is that I will be including

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Speaker 3: journalism in all of my bets. Nothing worse than when

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Speaker 3: you handicap a race, and you handicap it pretty accurately

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Speaker 3: and you're like, well, this is the best horse in

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Speaker 3: the race. I'm gonna look elsewhere to try to increase

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Speaker 3: the value for myself in the race. But I don't

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Speaker 3: want that horse that I genuinely believe to be the

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Speaker 3: most talented, best horse in the field to beat me,

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Speaker 3: to ruin my bets right, to blow my bets up,

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Speaker 3: So I will be including him in everything that I'm doing.

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Speaker 1: Chad just wanted to make sure so I understand.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's interesting too, the Derby. The last three

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Speaker 2: years we've had some long shot horses win. Do you

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Speaker 2: have any bets for this season, like long shuts you're

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Speaker 2: taking a shot on, or do you think it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be heavily chalk this year. The one year I remember, Chad,

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Speaker 2: was the year I think we were That was the

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Speaker 2: same year we went down to Kentucky ourselves. The guy

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Speaker 2: was like added that day won the Derby. I mean

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Speaker 2: that was like the craziest one ever where some cross

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Speaker 2: right hit that at like one hundred and twenty to one,

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Speaker 2: betted down to I think what it closed that like

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Speaker 2: you remember was.

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Speaker 3: Seventy eighty one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, y I hit it.

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Speaker 2: The books couldn't believe it. They moved it. They still

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Speaker 2: at that and it guy won it. So I would

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Speaker 2: love you for any long shots this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, and to your point, Simon, I

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Speaker 3: mean the last four years, we had Mandaloon in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one at twenty six to one, we had rich

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Speaker 3: Strike in twenty twenty two at eighty to one, we

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Speaker 3: had Mage in twenty three at fifteen to one, and

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Speaker 3: last year we had missed a Dan at eighteen to one.

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Speaker 3: Interestingly enough, my top choice in this year's Kentucky Derby

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Speaker 3: is the number seven Luxor Cafe, who is fifteen to one. So,

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Speaker 3: you know, trying to continue with that trend before the

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Speaker 3: last four years, I believe it was like eight straight

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Speaker 3: years that we had the favorite win. So you know,

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Speaker 3: it's either been favorite or pretty heavy long shot. And

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Speaker 3: the thing is, in a twenty horse field, even a

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Speaker 3: favorite typically you're going to get three four to one.

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Speaker 3: And in you know, in typical sports betting, you look

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Speaker 3: at three or four to one and we salivate, right

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Speaker 3: in horse racing, you look at three or four to

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Speaker 3: one and you're like, eh, that's okay because of these

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Speaker 3: the field sizes and what we've got going. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: but you know, to your point, Simon, the number seven

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Speaker 3: lux Or Cafe, he is coming over from Japan and

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Speaker 3: so he has run in some pretty high quality races

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Speaker 3: over in Japan. He's run against deeper fields ten twelve,

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Speaker 3: sixteen horse fields and he's been able to win. He

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Speaker 3: also the father or the sire of Luxor Cafe is

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Speaker 3: American Pharaoh who back in twenty fifteen won the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 3: went on to win the Preakness and then won the

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Speaker 3: Belmont to break the Triple Crown streak. So he's bred

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Speaker 3: to get the distance, and so he's the horse that

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Speaker 3: I'll be using on top. And then in terms of

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Speaker 3: some other long shots to consider, the number three, Final

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Speaker 3: Gambit is a price that I really like. He's another

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Speaker 3: one of these horses like we talked about Sandman, Final

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Speaker 3: Gambit is going to do his best running late, so

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Speaker 3: he is going to be far back early. So when

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Speaker 3: you see him far back early, don't mail it in.

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Speaker 3: Know that he's going to be coming late, which is

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Speaker 3: really exciting. We talked about Bob Bafford before he's got

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Speaker 3: the number four Rodriguez at twelve to one. Rodriguez ran

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Speaker 3: in a race called the Wood Memorial about a month

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Speaker 3: ago now and won that race fairly easily. He had

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Speaker 3: a pretty easy early pace and ended up opening up

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Speaker 3: in the lane on those horses and didn't really appear

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Speaker 3: to be asked. So those are the three horses that

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Speaker 3: interest me the most at longer odds.

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Speaker 1: Hold on A second luxer Cafe is the child of

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Speaker 1: American Pharaoh. How many children of American Pharaoh have run

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Speaker 1: in the Triple Crown since a three year old? Since

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Speaker 1: since American Pharaoh could have sired a three year old,

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Speaker 1: which would have been eighteen or nineteen, So the past

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Speaker 1: six years have any children of American Pharaoh run in

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Speaker 1: the Triple Crown?

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Speaker 3: I do not believe.

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Speaker 1: So how is this not a bigger story?

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Speaker 3: I agree? And you know it was funny because when

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Speaker 3: American Pharaoh first went to be a sire and in

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Speaker 3: the breeding shed, he had one of the highest prices

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Speaker 3: in order to breed to him. That price has come

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Speaker 3: down because none of his offspring have won one of

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Speaker 3: these three Triple Crown races. So it's only a matter

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Speaker 3: of time before we get an American pharaoh sired horse

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Speaker 3: to win the Triple Crown. I loved American Pharaoh when

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Speaker 3: he won in twenty fifteen, so again, definitely not gonna

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Speaker 3: miss out. When you have a horse at fifteen to one,

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Speaker 3: like lux or cafete.

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Speaker 1: Do we have any idea how much Luxer cafe cost

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Speaker 1: to be made.

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Speaker 3: Let's see, let's see if they have it listed. He no,

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Speaker 3: because it was a private purchase, so don't know how

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Speaker 3: much you know it cost to acquire.

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Speaker 1: How much was American Pharaoh getting per pop? You know?

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Speaker 3: So he when he was first in the breeding shed,

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Speaker 3: it was like one hundred and fifty thousand dollars per

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Speaker 3: live offspring for American Pharaoh. It's now down under one

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Speaker 3: hundred thousand, but it's still crazy to think just to

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Speaker 3: breed to American Pharaoh that you're spending that kind of money.

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Speaker 1: I feel like for me to get my kids off

435
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 1: my hands, I might have to pay someone one hundred

436
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars. In fact, if we're talking about

437
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: college that it's more than that, like usually do double.

438
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 1: So that's quite that's quite the package for American Pharaoh, Simon,

439
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: it's pretty good.

440
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a bad stud feed, but it's also pretty interesting.

441
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 2: The fact that what you just brought up, it's like genetics.

442
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: No one's cracked the code. They're just it's still doing

443
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 2: the same thing they did, you know, back when they

444
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 2: first established breeding horses, and was Saudi Arabia who takes crown?

445
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 2: Like is that who? Yeah, they take So it's just

446
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 2: funny that it's been thousands of years, Chad and it's

447
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 2: still the same old nothing's changed.

448
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: Dude, you're not joking. Literally. I did this story for

449
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: Sports Illustrated in nineteen ninety eight. Okay, like Mike, Mike

450
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: played football at Ithaca and this is like when Mike

451
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: was still playing pee wee in you know, in New Haven,

452
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,479
Speaker 1: but which is probably a rough pee wee league, if

453
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: I got to say. But like I went out to

454
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 1: simon a horse farm in outside Philadelphia because like, there's

455
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: a ton of farms with horses outside Philly. And the

456
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: story was all about humans as as runners, especially in

457
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,959
Speaker 1: speed races, have been able to evolve over the one

458
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: hundred or so years that people have been running the

459
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 1: one hundred meters dash or whatever it is, Like they

460
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 1: have gotten faster, right, They've improved their training, they have

461
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 1: improved their form. You know, bodies have evolved over time

462
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 1: to allow humans to run faster. Horses basically run the same,

463
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: and nothing has changed in the evolution of horses. Mike,

464
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: do you have any idea why that is like not

465
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: to put you on the spot as sort of an

466
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: equine specialist. But isn't that strange that to Simon's point,

467
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,360
Speaker 1: nothing in this sport has changed. They cannot figure out

468
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: how to draft a quarterback, they cannot figure out how

469
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: to make a triple crown winner, and they cannot figure

470
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 1: out how to get these horses to run faster.

471
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 3: It chatted, So it really is. It's wild. You know.

472
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 3: One of my favorite horse racing movie, Secretariat, so Ogden Phipps,

473
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 3: who is you know, a predominant horse breeder and owner.

474
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 3: In the movie, he talks about and obviously based on

475
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 3: you know, real life, he talks about when Penny Chenery

476
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 3: acquired Secretariat. He had there was a coin flip that

477
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 3: they did to choose. There were two horses that they

478
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 3: could choose from between Ogden Phipps and you know, mister

479
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 3: Chennery's farm and Ogden Phipps chose the horse that was

480
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 3: bred to get the distance, that was bred to be

481
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 3: this great horse. Yet Penny wanted Secretariat. She got him

482
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 3: by luck of a coin flip, and Ogden Phipps, you know,

483
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: sat there and he said in the movie it was

484
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 3: something I forget the exact line, but it was something like,

485
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 3: you know, the best looking horse, the prettiest horse in

486
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 3: his barn, but you know, couldn't outrun his accountants. And

487
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 3: so there's just so much that goes to chance when

488
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: you're talking about, you know, breeding these animals, and at

489
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 3: the end of the day, you have to remember they

490
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 3: are animals. We don't always know what's going on, you know,

491
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: we can't they can't speak to us obviously, So it

492
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: is just such an interesting phenomenon to think about.

493
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: My favorite horse racing movie is Seabiscuit, and I happen

494
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: to see Seabiscuit like right after I think our first

495
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: son was born, and there's like some child related tragedy

496
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 1: in the movie. I don't want to ruin it for

497
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: people who over the past twenty years haven't seen it.

498
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: And my wife and I was the first night out

499
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: after we had had our kid, and I remember my

500
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: wife and I are in the theater full balling like

501
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: in the movie because of what happens to the kid

502
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: in the movie, and we are just in agony. We're like,

503
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: I can't believe this is our first night out. But

504
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: Seabiscuit brilliant book great movie, Simon, do you have a

505
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: favorite horse racing movie?

506
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say, is Sea Biscuit? Is that

507
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: the anomaly of like a horse that genetically had a

508
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: huge heart?

509
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 3: Isn't that that secretary of secretariat?

510
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: So isn't that what you're speaking about chat where it's

511
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: like we've had one like that, we.

512
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: Know about one genetic freak freak. Yeah, Simon, you and

513
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: I are the secretariats of sports betting podcasting. All right,

514
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: so you've given us long shots, We've gone through the

515
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: current shortest odds. You know. Reminder of everybody, this is

516
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: all parimutual. It can all change. These odds are constantly changing, Mike.

517
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: One of my favorite sayings in all of sports betting

518
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: it's becoming less and less relevant, is whisper Wednesday. For

519
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 1: those who don't know, it's sort of after horses have

520
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: had a couple days of running and training and practice

521
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: at the derby, sort of around the stables, all the

522
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: handicappers start talking on Wednesday. That's a really important day

523
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:59,959
Speaker 1: for practice runs, and so odds start to change more aggressively.

524
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: Have you heard anything about horses that are getting whispered

525
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: about that hadn't otherwise been.

526
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 3: I mean obviously Journalism, right, everybody has said that they

527
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 3: love this horse. He's looked really good. The other interesting

528
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: horse is Burnham Square, the number nine. He's a horse

529
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: who is gelded, which means that he can no longer

530
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: have offspring. You can surmize what that really means, but

531
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 3: he can no longer have offspring. He's been gelded, yet

532
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 3: he has still been, as they've been saying, kicking the

533
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 3: barn doors down. He is a somewhat of a quirky horse,

534
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 3: but one who just loves being out on the track.

535
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: So there has been some talk about how he's been training.

536
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 3: He's a very aggressive horse. But a lot of the

537
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: reports are coming back that Journalism looks fantastic, has been

538
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 3: training great, and there are a lot of people that

539
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 3: are very high on this horse.

540
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: All right, so you know, we can bet Journalism. By Saturday,

541
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: probably we'd be down to two to one. So let's

542
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: have a little bit of fun. You don't have to

543
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: bet just you know, win play show. You don't have

544
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,239
Speaker 1: to bet on one horse to just win. There are

545
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: a lot of exotics you can bet in any horse race.

546
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: But obviously more people paying attention to the derby. It

547
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: give us some ideas on what you would bet for

548
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: exactas trifectas. You just talked about how you'll keep journalism

549
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: in most of your bets so you can't get beat

550
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 1: by it, But explain a little bit of what that

551
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: means someone's just listening in, and then what kind of

552
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: boxes you would put together.

553
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, So an exacta is betting on the first the

554
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 3: top two finishers, so first and second place. So you know,

555
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: in terms of normal sports betting, it's almost like a

556
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: parlay within one game if you will. It's a same

557
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: game parlay if you will. And so an exacta the

558
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 3: first two finishers. And again, as you mentioned, Chad, you

559
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 3: can choose multiple horses in each spot, in first and second.

560
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 3: So the way I'm going to build my exacta this

561
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 3: year is I'm going to have the number seven lux

562
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 3: Or Cafe and the number eight Journalism in the first

563
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 3: place spot, and then in the second place spot, I'm

564
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 3: going to have the number three who is Final Gambit,

565
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 3: the number four who is Rodriguez, the seven lux Or Cafe,

566
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 3: the eight Journalism, the ten Grande and the seventeen Sandman.

567
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 3: If you make that as a one dollar bet. It's

568
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: only going to cost you ten bucks. The average Derby

569
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 3: Exacta payout is in the multiple hundreds of dollars, So

570
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 3: you're investing ten bucks to you know, ideally get ten

571
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 3: twenty thirty to one odds on that bet. What about trifectus, Yeah,

572
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 3: so trifecta similar to an EXACTA top three finishers. This

573
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 3: you can do for a fifty cent base bet. So

574
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: my trifecta ticket is going to look like this, It's

575
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 3: going to look like seven to eight in first In

576
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 3: the second position it will be three seven eight nine

577
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 3: ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. And then in the third position,

578
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 3: just gonna repeat that second position three four seven eight

579
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 3: nine ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. Sounds like a lot, but

580
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 3: for fifty cents, it's a fifty six dollars bet. The

581
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 3: average Derby Trifecta pays over twenty two hundred dollars, So

582
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 3: you're talking about a fifty six dollars bet where you're

583
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 3: gonna get about twenty to one on your bet.

584
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: Oh my god, we are so in. Simon is punching

585
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 1: that in as we speak, because who doesn't like a

586
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 1: big powd We are in a big payout fever here

587
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: in the United States. We love betting a little and

588
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: getting a lot. We like winning the lottery. We're gonna

589
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 1: do it, am I right, Simon?

590
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: Have you ever hit one of them?

591
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 2: As the track chat, I've honestly only ever hitted at

592
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 2: a dog park. I've ever hit a I've hitited a

593
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 2: dog track. I've never hit it at a horse track.

594
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: I've never hit it anywhere.

595
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: No. Oh man, it's a high of eies.

596
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 3: It's the best.

597
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: Hey, Simon, did you know that Mike County I just

598
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: mentioned he played football at Ithaca. We hear it. The

599
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 1: favorites want to shout you out because you are a

600
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:23,240
Speaker 1: sports legend. Back in twenty eleven, you had an eighty

601
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: eight yard pick six to become the first player in

602
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: Ithaca Bombers football history to score three defensive touchdowns in

603
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: your career. I know Matt Mitchell wants me to say

604
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: that on behalf of all Upstate New York's scumbags like himself.

605
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: Congrats on your status as a regional legend. For that alone,

606
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 1: anything you sire is worth one hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

607
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 3: Well, thank you, guys. It was a fun four years

608
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 3: at Ithaca and was lucky to have some opportunities to

609
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 3: see the end zone from the defensive side of the ball.

610
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 2: Fantastic we get we do they make you watch road

611
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 2: Trip the movie to get into Ithaca?

612
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 3: Is that part of it?

613
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 2: Is that part of it?

614
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 3: You know it? You know it. You've got to become

615
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 3: accustomed to road Trip and what's going on?

616
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: Gotta wait? Was road Trip? Amy Smart?

617
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: Yeah?

618
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 2: I had a huge question on her back then. Yeah,

619
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,919
Speaker 2: fam get in famous videotape scene with her great call Chad.

620
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,720
Speaker 1: It's impossible not to have a crush on Amy Smart

621
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: no matter how old you are. Once you've seen road

622
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: Trip listen. If you're looking for even more Derby coverage,

623
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: check out the Betting preview of the Action Network podcast

624
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 1: with Mike and our longtime horse racing handicapper Sean Zarillo

625
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: that's available now. Also, don't forget go subscribe at Real

626
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: Chad Milman on YouTube. Simon and I Real return with

627
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 1: our next episode of the Favorites Tuesday on the Action

628
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you

629
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 1: get your pods rate would you subscribe? Leave us five stars?

630
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,359
Speaker 1: Say if you want feedback is again until next time.

631
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 1: Love You Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

632
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

633
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

634
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 3: hundred gambler