1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,320
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal

2
00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,240
Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you.

3
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,200
Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work.

4
00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,880
Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC.

5
00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions

6
00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,360
Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of

7
00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,720
Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the

8
00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,000
Speaker 1: corrupt ruling class more support the show. Become a Breaking

9
00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 1: Points Premium Member today, where you get to watch and

10
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,640
Speaker 1: listen to the entire show ad free and uncut, an

11
00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,440
Speaker 1: hour early before everyone else. You get to hear our

12
00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 1: reactions to each other's monologues. You get to participate and

13
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,960
Speaker 1: weekly ask me any things, and you don't need to

14
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,040
Speaker 1: hear our annoying voices pitching you like I am right now?

15
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 1: So what are you waiting for? Go to Breakingpoints dot

16
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 1: com become a Premium member today, which is available in

17
00:00:46,120 --> 00:01:05,839
Speaker 1: the show notes. Enjoy the show, guys, Good morning, everybody,

18
00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,760
Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

19
00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,120
Speaker 1: Marshal Costs office in for Crystal Ball. It's good to

20
00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,880
Speaker 1: see you, Marshall. How are you, man, man, I'm really good.

21
00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,440
Speaker 1: I'm excited to kick off Monday with everyone here. Let's

22
00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:18,160
Speaker 1: get into it. Let's do it. Okay, So we got

23
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,319
Speaker 1: some really great topics for everybody today. First of all,

24
00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,200
Speaker 1: for the guests, you got a guy, Jacob Helberg. You

25
00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,800
Speaker 1: just wrote a book about China, how the US should

26
00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,000
Speaker 1: respond in terms of technological warfare and more. Obviously it's

27
00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:29,920
Speaker 1: very timely given to all the stuff that's going on

28
00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,240
Speaker 1: with Taiwan. We're going to delve into all of that.

29
00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,640
Speaker 1: Matthew McConaughey breaking his silence in terms of whether he's

30
00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 1: going to run for the governor of Texas or not

31
00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,680
Speaker 1: one of it's an incredible interview, but it actually says

32
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,840
Speaker 1: a lot about our current political moment. We're going to

33
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,880
Speaker 1: dive into all of that. New York City is nuking

34
00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,920
Speaker 1: its Gifted and Talented program, a lot of hot takes

35
00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,640
Speaker 1: both sides. We're going to delve into what exactly is happening,

36
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,600
Speaker 1: whether it's a good decision bad, what are the justifications

37
00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,320
Speaker 1: and why you should care? Is it coming to a

38
00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,680
Speaker 1: school near you? Facebook Whistleblower, We've got some more follow

39
00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 1: up on some interesting things going on with her and

40
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 1: really just what is the broader conversation should we even

41
00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 1: care about Facebook period? Economic shortage is something you guys

42
00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,040
Speaker 1: know that I care a lot about. But we got

43
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,840
Speaker 1: to start with the very very top line of what's happening,

44
00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 1: which is the horrific jobs report that happened for the

45
00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,120
Speaker 1: Biden administration. So let's go ahead and put that up

46
00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:26,079
Speaker 1: there on the screen. September job creation came in short

47
00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,400
Speaker 1: with just one hundred and ninety four thousand jobs, So

48
00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,119
Speaker 1: just so people know, that is horrific. They were looking

49
00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,680
Speaker 1: for something like seven to eight hundred thousand jobs is

50
00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,959
Speaker 1: what the number needed to be. Now, the real issue

51
00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,120
Speaker 1: is that once you start going in and looking at

52
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 1: what's happening, the unemployment rate still stands at four point

53
00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,639
Speaker 1: eight percent. This, of course comes at a time when

54
00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,080
Speaker 1: the unemployment benefits have expired. Four point eight percent actually

55
00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,559
Speaker 1: isn't terrible necessarily in a normal economy, but the targeted

56
00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,840
Speaker 1: areas of unemployment marshal are where it's a total disaster.

57
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,400
Speaker 1: So even though leisure and hospitality did gain net jobs,

58
00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,240
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate though for the sector is still seven

59
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,959
Speaker 1: point seven percent. And then professional and business services it's

60
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,760
Speaker 1: the same thing. So when you go, when you look

61
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:18,120
Speaker 1: sector by sector, very critical places leisure, hospitality, and more.

62
00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 1: It's pretty clear that delta, the delta variant in September

63
00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,720
Speaker 1: in particular, just put a stranglehold on the entire economy.

64
00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,040
Speaker 1: And this is what's dragging Joe Biden down. I mean

65
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,639
Speaker 1: everything that we've seen so far, he barely had a

66
00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,360
Speaker 1: fifty something of percent approval rating whenever it came to

67
00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,320
Speaker 1: his handling of the economy when he came into office.

68
00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 1: Now he's in the sub you know, their thirties, forties,

69
00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,680
Speaker 1: something like that. This is absolutely what we'll drag him down.

70
00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,960
Speaker 1: It was the only area where Trump was ever outperforming

71
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,040
Speaker 1: him throughout the entire general election. If this doesn't turn

72
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,240
Speaker 1: around fast, it's gonna be a big problem for him. Yeah,

73
00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 1: and I really like how you laid out how many

74
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:56,360
Speaker 1: different interlocking parts are coming together here the narrative that's

75
00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 1: been disproven, and you and christ was a great job

76
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 1: of covering. This was last month. A lot of people

77
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:05,120
Speaker 1: have said, well, with the unemployment expansion, insurance coverage expansion

78
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,040
Speaker 1: coming to a close, people are going to go back

79
00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,160
Speaker 1: to work. Yeah, that way, asks what did not happen? Now,

80
00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,440
Speaker 1: if that's not to say that the policy should have continued.

81
00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,400
Speaker 1: That's not to say that everything was working perfectly. It's

82
00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:16,279
Speaker 1: just to say that anyone who's coming to you with

83
00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:20,320
Speaker 1: a very convenient, very easy story about how the economy

84
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,400
Speaker 1: is reacting to COVID, the delta rise, all these interlocking factors,

85
00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,960
Speaker 1: how individual states are performing, how individual cities are performing,

86
00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 1: how individual employers are performing, is just not going to

87
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,120
Speaker 1: be selling you an accurate bill of goods. Yeah, it's

88
00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,280
Speaker 1: really Let's put a Washington Post hair sheet up there

89
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,279
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is actually very important. So the

90
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,320
Speaker 1: key takeaway is that we have an extremely uneven and

91
00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,160
Speaker 1: bumpy recovery. I like the way to have along put this,

92
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,560
Speaker 1: which is that some people say they'll go back to

93
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,679
Speaker 1: work when they feel safe and well compensated. So actually,

94
00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,239
Speaker 1: one of the biggest problems, Marshall, that has happened here

95
00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,320
Speaker 1: is that the conventional narratives around what happened just all

96
00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,320
Speaker 1: don't seem to make any sense whatsoever. Everybody, and I

97
00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:03,240
Speaker 1: really mean everybody in the conservative movement said that when

98
00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,280
Speaker 1: these unemployment benefits expire, we are gonna see a mass

99
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:10,120
Speaker 1: rush to jobs. Guess what, it just literally did not happen.

100
00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,800
Speaker 1: In fact, we saw a retraction, or at the very

101
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,839
Speaker 1: least in the sectors where this was supposedly impacting, we

102
00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,839
Speaker 1: didn't see any growth whatsoever. So what's the answer. And

103
00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:20,880
Speaker 1: this is something that I've been saying over and over again,

104
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,839
Speaker 1: and I know it doesn't make economic widget sense, as

105
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,760
Speaker 1: if if people are widgets. Some people just don't really

106
00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:28,479
Speaker 1: like the job that they used to do. And it

107
00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,440
Speaker 1: turns out after a year and a half, people go, hey,

108
00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,919
Speaker 1: you know, driving for Uber that sucks, And no matter

109
00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:36,839
Speaker 1: how much you're gonna money, you're gonna throw at me

110
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,920
Speaker 1: all your fake little bonuses. I do not want to

111
00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,120
Speaker 1: sit in a car and drive for thirteen hours a

112
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,680
Speaker 1: day and only make like sixty thousand dollars a year.

113
00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,039
Speaker 1: That's just not gonna work for me. Same thing whenever

114
00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,320
Speaker 1: it comes to dining, right I've talked to a lot

115
00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,599
Speaker 1: of the waiters. I've just been like, hey, how's it going.

116
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,360
Speaker 1: They're like, hey, you know, like I'm doing this because

117
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,240
Speaker 1: right now, you know, we're making a lot in terms

118
00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,440
Speaker 1: of tips, and the restaurant raised its wages. But you

119
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,320
Speaker 1: know a lot of people say, I just don't want

120
00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,320
Speaker 1: to go back, especially in non metro areas. Guess what

121
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,159
Speaker 1: waiting for tables that sucks too. Ask anybody who works

122
00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,880
Speaker 1: in the service industry. They hate it, and especially in

123
00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:15,600
Speaker 1: terms of tipmanum wage. Now we've had an option or

124
00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 1: people have seen a different life at a year and

125
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:19,880
Speaker 1: a half out of the market, they say, maybe I'm

126
00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,280
Speaker 1: going to go back to school, maybe I'm going to

127
00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 1: go do this. Hey, I met my cousin and he's

128
00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,440
Speaker 1: got a shop or whatever. Who does this? And I

129
00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,400
Speaker 1: just don't want to do it anymore. And that is

130
00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,599
Speaker 1: the problem, which I don't think that can be solved.

131
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:32,600
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a policy thing. You know, you

132
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:34,719
Speaker 1: and I were talking this morning. It turns out that

133
00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,800
Speaker 1: when you shut down the global economy for a year,

134
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,920
Speaker 1: some really crazy stuff happens. This is one of them.

135
00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:41,599
Speaker 1: And I want to pick up on point you just

136
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,920
Speaker 1: made about shutting down. The key thing here is, I

137
00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 1: know a lot of people are probably reacting thinking, see,

138
00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,680
Speaker 1: this is what happens when Blue states shut down, This

139
00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,320
Speaker 1: is what happens when Joe Biden puts in a vaccine mandate.

140
00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,359
Speaker 1: Something that you and Crystals should cover later in the

141
00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,640
Speaker 1: week is this whole story about the airls Southwest Airlines

142
00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,280
Speaker 1: and like possible strikes that could be happening. The point is,

143
00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,760
Speaker 1: all these things are coming together. And even without a

144
00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,240
Speaker 1: vaccine mandate, even about a mask debate, even without whatever

145
00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,680
Speaker 1: California and New York or to See are doing, there's

146
00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:13,960
Speaker 1: all these things that are coming together. And another part

147
00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,920
Speaker 1: of this data it's so interesting, is the fact that

148
00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,520
Speaker 1: there's this white collar brew collar divergence here when it

149
00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:21,800
Speaker 1: comes to coming back to work. For you and I,

150
00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,280
Speaker 1: we have these white collar professions. We're in media. This

151
00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:26,920
Speaker 1: is this is really great. We're very flexible, we're doing

152
00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,119
Speaker 1: everything remotely. But if you are the type of person

153
00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:31,200
Speaker 1: this was covered in some of the Washington Post reporting.

154
00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:34,400
Speaker 1: There's this guy who used to have this really awesome

155
00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 1: job where he would install alarm systems in old folks homes,

156
00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:39,800
Speaker 1: at old folks houses. He really enjoyed. He like talking

157
00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:41,840
Speaker 1: to people, and he say to himself, I can't have

158
00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,560
Speaker 1: that job anymore. That job collapsed. I don't want to

159
00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 1: just go work in retail right now. And even without

160
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,640
Speaker 1: the unemployment expansion, he is just going to continue trying

161
00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 1: to find something that really fulfills him. So trying to

162
00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,240
Speaker 1: have a system where people can feel like, hey, can

163
00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,760
Speaker 1: I find work that's fulfilling to me? Can I accomplish

164
00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,240
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to accomplish my life has been a

165
00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:04,200
Speaker 1: really important point, and that is the part that no policymaker, Democrat, Republican,

166
00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: local national has anything to do with. You can't fix

167
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 1: that exactly. It's like people have had a great reassessment

168
00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,320
Speaker 1: of work of life. You know, I've been recently talking

169
00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,400
Speaker 1: to people. The amount of mobility in terms of moving

170
00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,360
Speaker 1: would defy the mind. Now you would think, oh, but

171
00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,360
Speaker 1: it's a pandemic. No, a lot of people had a

172
00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,400
Speaker 1: lot of assessments and saying, you know, I don't want

173
00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 1: to live here anymore. I'm going to go live somewhere else.

174
00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,640
Speaker 1: Obviously those people were privileged and they had the financial

175
00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,200
Speaker 1: means to do so. But I'm just giving you an example.

176
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 1: On the highest end of the scale of the income spectrum.

177
00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,040
Speaker 1: On the low end, it's I don't want to work

178
00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,920
Speaker 1: this job anymore. I want to go do something else. Hey,

179
00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:38,760
Speaker 1: I don't really like this. I like spending time with

180
00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:40,880
Speaker 1: my kids, or I want to spend more time with

181
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,280
Speaker 1: my kids because I actually had to work conversely more.

182
00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,800
Speaker 1: You know, I mentioned that the unemployment rate actually declined.

183
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:47,439
Speaker 1: But one of the problems I want to make sure

184
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,440
Speaker 1: I shout this out here is that the reason why

185
00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:51,439
Speaker 1: is not for a good reason. It's because the labor

186
00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,560
Speaker 1: force actually shrank, which is that the amount of people

187
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,880
Speaker 1: who were actively looking for a job declined by hundreds

188
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,280
Speaker 1: of thousands, and a lot of it was women. A

189
00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,760
Speaker 1: lot of women in particular, just said, you know what,

190
00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,280
Speaker 1: I don't want to work anymore. You know, they were

191
00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,280
Speaker 1: mentioning childcare. They're not even necessarily cost They're just saying, like, look,

192
00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,680
Speaker 1: I like spending time, spending time with my kids. There's

193
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,319
Speaker 1: nothing wrong with that whatsoever. But that's going to have

194
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:18,000
Speaker 1: a lot of economic outsized factors. Matt Bruning, who has

195
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,680
Speaker 1: been you know, hammering this point home for a long time,

196
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,400
Speaker 1: let's put this up there on the screen around unemployment benefits.

197
00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,520
Speaker 1: This was the worst month of job growth since the

198
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,280
Speaker 1: Biden administration became president, and the second worst since May

199
00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:35,000
Speaker 1: of last year, when the pandemic labor market recovery began. So,

200
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 1: as he points to, it's not like the unemployment insurance

201
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:42,320
Speaker 1: cuts did not work. The unemployment insurance cuts squarely did

202
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,040
Speaker 1: not work. As you said, look should unemployment be that

203
00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,480
Speaker 1: high all the time? That's the debate, you know, I

204
00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,920
Speaker 1: don't not necessarily in terms of the incentives or whatever,

205
00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,439
Speaker 1: but in terms of the idea that everybody was making

206
00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,040
Speaker 1: more on unemployment, and thus that's not why they're not

207
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,559
Speaker 1: going back to work at Jamba joos for seven to

208
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,000
Speaker 1: twenty five an hour. This has pretty much just been

209
00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,040
Speaker 1: explicitly disproven. Same whenever it comes to restaurants. We've had

210
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,280
Speaker 1: a full month now where a lot of this stuff

211
00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,760
Speaker 1: has not been there, and we haven't seen any recovery whatsoever.

212
00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,800
Speaker 1: If anything, we've seen the opposite. Let's put Heather's tweet

213
00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 1: up there. She also did a great sum up, which

214
00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,080
Speaker 1: is that the key takeaway is that the delta variant

215
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:25,080
Speaker 1: obviously took a toll because hotels only added twenty one

216
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,479
Speaker 1: hundred jobs in the last month, which is horrible considering

217
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,280
Speaker 1: the baseline of which they started. Unemployment aid was not

218
00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,800
Speaker 1: the big factor holding people back. Labor force participation is weak,

219
00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 1: childcare obviously weighing on the ability to work, and actually

220
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,040
Speaker 1: I think this is where the schools start to come

221
00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,040
Speaker 1: into play, because even though the school system is back,

222
00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,640
Speaker 1: just speaking with Crystal, I mean you know, some kid

223
00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:54,960
Speaker 1: nine seats away sneezes and has COVID and then oh

224
00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,120
Speaker 1: the whole everybody's got to go home. And apparently, by

225
00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:02,720
Speaker 1: the way, they require these defensive PCR tests, which it's

226
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:04,679
Speaker 1: not like you have to pay for it like not

227
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,080
Speaker 1: somebody else. So you've got the cost, You've got this

228
00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:12,040
Speaker 1: sheer amount of chaos whenever way, which comes with little children,

229
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,520
Speaker 1: and oh, he's got to get out for two weeks

230
00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,360
Speaker 1: and oh now he's back in and some kid on

231
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,920
Speaker 1: the soccer team, you know over there sneeze and he's

232
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,319
Speaker 1: got COVID. So apparently that's the whole thing, that level

233
00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:27,400
Speaker 1: of chaos in young kids' lives, that just flushes right

234
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,360
Speaker 1: up in terms of the parents who were said, you

235
00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,440
Speaker 1: know what, I can't deal with this right now. I

236
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 1: got to focus on making sure that, you know, my

237
00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,480
Speaker 1: kid is eating three meals a day and being able

238
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,040
Speaker 1: to go to work. So I think you put that

239
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:42,079
Speaker 1: all together, and like I said it, it's gonna look

240
00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:43,599
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, Joe Biden is the

241
00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,040
Speaker 1: president and no matter what, he's the person who's going

242
00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 1: to have to quote unquote take responsibility for this. Even

243
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,360
Speaker 1: though I personally think these are all just massive macro

244
00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,360
Speaker 1: forces which are in and out of his control. To

245
00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,680
Speaker 1: the extent of his control, it's marginal. You can't force

246
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 1: somebody to go back to work. So here's the part

247
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,719
Speaker 1: which is difficult for me, and I don't actually know

248
00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,640
Speaker 1: how I feel about this long term. As you said,

249
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,840
Speaker 1: there's always macro micro forces combining thisselves together. The thing

250
00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:13,679
Speaker 1: that's driving the unemployment issue, it's these spikes in COVID.

251
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,079
Speaker 1: It's the COVID spikes up and down and look like

252
00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:17,440
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I hate to sound

253
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:20,280
Speaker 1: like that super conventional wisdom person, but the US does

254
00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,200
Speaker 1: have some of the worst spikes in the entire world.

255
00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,640
Speaker 1: So it's not as if there aren't lessons we could

256
00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:27,679
Speaker 1: take from other countries, especially in Europe, are doing a

257
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,120
Speaker 1: better job of managing that part of the pandemic. Like

258
00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,720
Speaker 1: once again, like a dynamic and a conversation we're having

259
00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,760
Speaker 1: with people, people say, hey, why did Joe Biden aggressively

260
00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,000
Speaker 1: put down this mandate? Whether you support the mandate or not,

261
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,040
Speaker 1: what's clearly driving in is the fact that they have

262
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:45,200
Speaker 1: calculated a better risk to take is that people will

263
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,880
Speaker 1: be ticked off by the mandate. Than allowing COVID to

264
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 1: continue to spread. And the part that if I'm Joe

265
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,960
Speaker 1: Biden and I'm that administration, that I'm thinking about now

266
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:54,959
Speaker 1: is if this is happening at the end of summer,

267
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,960
Speaker 1: what is COVID winter going to look like? The prediction

268
00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:59,480
Speaker 1: I'll make all we have to eat is just that,

269
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,760
Speaker 1: you know, if this will probably be like another winter

270
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,839
Speaker 1: where there's just very very very very very aggressive spread.

271
00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:07,079
Speaker 1: So the question is what are they going to be

272
00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,079
Speaker 1: able to do in the months before men to actually

273
00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,439
Speaker 1: restore trust and address some of the problems that you're

274
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,560
Speaker 1: describing there. My hope is that September was a high

275
00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,520
Speaker 1: water mark that Delta was so infectious. I mean I

276
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 1: got infected, I got COVID, and that enough people now

277
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:24,760
Speaker 1: have both vaccine immunity and natural immunity such that the

278
00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,200
Speaker 1: winter surge won't happen. That being said, this still sixty

279
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 1: eight million people who haven't been vaccinated, and in terms

280
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,360
Speaker 1: of the amount of that population which hasn't had which

281
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,240
Speaker 1: hasn't had COVID, it's just you know, it's larger, and

282
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,319
Speaker 1: then that means they'll have clusters. You'll see the same

283
00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,559
Speaker 1: thing that's happening across the American South. So look, I

284
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:44,520
Speaker 1: don't know how it's going to shake out, but the

285
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,360
Speaker 1: key point is is that COVID putting a stranglehold on

286
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,679
Speaker 1: the economy, and at the very same time, when you

287
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,240
Speaker 1: shut people out of work for a year, some crazy

288
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 1: stuff is going to happen. And that's what we're seeing

289
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 1: manifesting the jobs report. All of that politically not good

290
00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,800
Speaker 1: for Biden. Let's move on to the shortages discussion. This

291
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,959
Speaker 1: actually fits perfectly with what we were just talking about

292
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,839
Speaker 1: in terms of the jobs report, which is that we

293
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,679
Speaker 1: have some crazy shortages right now of literally everything. I

294
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,559
Speaker 1: did a monologue a couple of months ago with chlorine

295
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,719
Speaker 1: all the way from chlorine semiconductors. You guys know, I

296
00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,680
Speaker 1: care a lot about that goes into the phones, you know,

297
00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,680
Speaker 1: PS five. That's how you probably have had it manifested

298
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,320
Speaker 1: in your life. That's why the used car market is

299
00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 1: totally out of control, because nobody can buy a new

300
00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 1: car right now. It's the same thing whenever it actually

301
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 1: you know, we just had to we have some very

302
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,040
Speaker 1: special announcements here at breaking points and which are basically

303
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,040
Speaker 1: taking forever for the same reason because of that. Whenever

304
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,600
Speaker 1: we bought the new computer in order to edit our show,

305
00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 1: and we needed some high end thing. It took like

306
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,520
Speaker 1: two and a half months. This is happening everywhere. I'm

307
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,960
Speaker 1: sure every person out there is having this manifested. Well,

308
00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,960
Speaker 1: CNN for once actually went out and did some great

309
00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,400
Speaker 1: journalism here. You'll rarely hear me say it, but they

310
00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,920
Speaker 1: got onto a helicopter and actually showed it everybody. What

311
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,960
Speaker 1: the backup at the US ports look like. For those

312
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 1: who are just listening, they do a decent job of narrating.

313
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 1: For those who are watching, You guys, you're going to

314
00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 1: enjoy this. Let's take a lesson. This is where the

315
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,280
Speaker 1: global supply chain meets the US economy. Says Coast Guard

316
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,560
Speaker 1: Commander Stephen Boorn, this record breaking is unprecedented. There are

317
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,880
Speaker 1: more ships than there are parking spots. We are effectively

318
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 1: operating a cell phall awaiting lot in the Pacific Ocean.

319
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:28,040
Speaker 1: This bottleneck of container ships, as far as the eye

320
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 1: can see, carries more than half the made in Asia

321
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,760
Speaker 1: items purchased by the American consumer. You're looking at all

322
00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,480
Speaker 1: of the electronics, You're looking at all of the hulk goods,

323
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 1: You're looking at all of the things that people are

324
00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 1: looking forward by this coming holiday season. Zero ships usually

325
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,400
Speaker 1: stay parked here, but on this day, Commander Bloorer counts

326
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,880
Speaker 1: fifty five in the ports and more drifting further out

327
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,160
Speaker 1: in the Pacific, while worst here the backup is at

328
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 1: all West Coast US ports. What does that indicate to

329
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 1: you about what's happening the supply chain? You know, I

330
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,400
Speaker 1: think everybody can see that things are slowing down, slowing

331
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,920
Speaker 1: down and piling up at sea and at the ports

332
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 1: of entry. This is what happens when a global economy

333
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,760
Speaker 1: snaps back after the COVID slump of twenty twenty. American

334
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,360
Speaker 1: consumers are back buying with force, but the supply chain

335
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 1: is struggling to catch up. No, she's getting to exactly

336
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about there, Marshall. And you could see

337
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:29,080
Speaker 1: that fifty five ships sitting out there circling the Port

338
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,520
Speaker 1: of Los Angeles. You know, I'm looking here at a

339
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 1: CBS Los Angeles local story. Half a million shipping containers

340
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 1: right now are sitting off of the coast of Los

341
00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 1: Angeles and Long Beach waiting to be unloaded. And you

342
00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,840
Speaker 1: know another thing I recently found out, which is that

343
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 1: part of the problem is that our past system, there

344
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 1: was a decent equalizing flow of shipping containers to the

345
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 1: United States and back to China. Well, guess what, because

346
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 1: it's a one way relationship right now, We've got all

347
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,960
Speaker 1: the shipping containers coming here, but we don't have anything

348
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 1: going back to China. So the Chinese woke up one

349
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,120
Speaker 1: day and they're like, hey, we don't have any shipp containers.

350
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,640
Speaker 1: So then what's even worse is we had to send

351
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 1: entire ships back of just empty shipping containers back to China.

352
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,359
Speaker 1: That's a huge drag on the global supply chain. It

353
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:19,080
Speaker 1: creates all kinds of crazy stuff. I was listening and

354
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,400
Speaker 1: talking over the weekend with somebody who's familiar with semiconductors.

355
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys know this. It takes

356
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 1: two hundred days two hundred from conception to production for

357
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 1: a simile single semiconductor chip in the world's best fabs.

358
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 1: So you take that and you multiply it across everywhere.

359
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,679
Speaker 1: That's part of the reason that we're seeing such massive

360
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 1: and crazy price fluctuations across everything. All of it. It

361
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,920
Speaker 1: seems to be you can trace back to screwing around

362
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: with the economy is crazy. And you know, right now,

363
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,120
Speaker 1: if you're going to order something for Christmas for your

364
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,320
Speaker 1: for your you know, for significant other, for your parent

365
00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,399
Speaker 1: or why or whatever, I would start ordering right now, folks,

366
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 1: because it is not going to get better by December.

367
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,840
Speaker 1: I can guarantee you that. Yeah. And look, the big

368
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 1: key thing here I saw this joke on twitteris someone said, look,

369
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,119
Speaker 1: if you're gonna buy anything for your kids, buy them

370
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 1: an NFT because it literally will be the only thing

371
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 1: available on the shores here. Like well, once again, like

372
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,160
Speaker 1: the story here is much similar to the job story

373
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 1: we just told, which is that they're all at least

374
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 1: interlocking figures. You could look at every single thing that's

375
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 1: all we're just talked about, and you could say, hey,

376
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 1: it's the fact that the Longshoreman's Union in LA is

377
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 1: not unloading things at the proper rate. You could say, hey,

378
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 1: like there's something about China, there's something about stores not

379
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,040
Speaker 1: being able to keep up a supply. The bigger point here,

380
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,160
Speaker 1: and this is once again a conventional wisdom COVID take,

381
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:44,640
Speaker 1: is if we have this massive interlocking system pre COVID globalization,

382
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 1: it's the fact that you could transfer goods with shipping

383
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,640
Speaker 1: containers across the entire world. You can get your Ikea,

384
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 1: you can get your thing at CBS, Walgreen's, Fred Meyer

385
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,200
Speaker 1: alberts As, no matter where you are in the country.

386
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,680
Speaker 1: We had access to a ridiculous amount of goods services,

387
00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And because of all

388
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 1: the stresses with COVID, there is just a total inability

389
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 1: of that system to work perfectly, so that when you

390
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 1: have a longshoreman's union strike, when you have issues with

391
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 1: individual truckers not being able to be hired, there's all

392
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,120
Speaker 1: these other factors that are going across. We really recommend

393
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 1: you all read a piece by Derek Thompson at Just Atlantic.

394
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. Put it

395
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,679
Speaker 1: up there, friend of the show, Derek Thompson. Just explain

396
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,920
Speaker 1: what Derek is talking about in here. Yeah, he's once

397
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,639
Speaker 1: again just illustrating everything that we are talking about here,

398
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,679
Speaker 1: which is the fact that you have a global supply

399
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,479
Speaker 1: chain that is slowed down right at the moment when

400
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,720
Speaker 1: everyone is trying to do things. Everyone has a decent

401
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 1: amount of savings, given the stimulus checks, giving the unemployment insurance,

402
00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 1: given the fact people were were traveling as much of

403
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 1: the past year and a half, people are trying to

404
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 1: buy things. You have the supplies going low, which is

405
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: why everything's rising. This is also another reason why people

406
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,719
Speaker 1: can't just give cold takes about government spending causing inflation,

407
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 1: because actually there are some pretty straightforward reasons why it's

408
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 1: actually being driven. And once again it's unclear. We're not

409
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: just trying to explain for Joe Biden here. We are

410
00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 1: trying to say, because I know that there's someone who's

411
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 1: throwing the phone at the screen, say hey, like if

412
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 1: they just did this, if they did that. But as

413
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 1: once again with the unemployment thing we mentioned last story,

414
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: there is not one clear policy fix would actually adjust us.

415
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: Even if you just got down to the longshoreman's union

416
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: and force them to unload every single thing, it would

417
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 1: not actually solve the fact that there are not enough

418
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,120
Speaker 1: truckers who would actually move those goods off of the area,

419
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 1: and that actually leads to the bail That's why I

420
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: love this, and I'll just go ahead and do it.

421
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: I'll push the button and piss off those people. This

422
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 1: does nothing to do with government spending whatsoever. Literally, not

423
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 1: a single thing which is that government spending has nothing

424
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: to do My favorite meme is gas prices. Guys, no

425
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 1: matter who the president is, they don't have a goddamn

426
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 1: thing to do with gas prices. And you could say

427
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 1: all you want about the strategic patrolum reserve or whatever

428
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 1: it has to deal with OPEK and with Look, we

429
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 1: didn't have We had a time when people weren't driving,

430
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: so we dramatically reduced supply. And it turns out it's

431
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 1: actually pretty hard in order to just ramp up immediately.

432
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 1: And then add you're seeing the LNG tankers and all

433
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 1: that other stuff in terms of how long it's getting

434
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 1: in order to cross the Persian Gulf. Same thing, ramp

435
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 1: up production here in the US. I've grown up around

436
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 1: the oil industry for my entire life, and everybody there

437
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 1: knows that the boom and bus cycle is part of

438
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: the hardest problem of the industry, and that can cause

439
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: some really crazy price fluctuations. And one of the things

440
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: that Derek gets to here, and I'm just going to

441
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 1: read this quote, the best solution to the everything shortage

442
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: is to have a policy to make more of just

443
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 1: about everything. Containers like I was talking about earlier, which

444
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: carried ninety percent of the world's traded goods are overwhelmingly

445
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: manufactured in China. Why does America not make more car parts, semiconductors,

446
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 1: and home goods have all been offshore, making the United

447
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: States solely reliant on overseas factories. Why can't America make

448
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 1: more at home? COVID tests, That's another perfect one. Those

449
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: things saved my ass whenever I had COVID, and that's

450
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: how I initially got the tests, and they were cheap

451
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 1: and they were available. But from what I hear, you

452
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 1: can't buy one in this right now. That is actually

453
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: the real policy. If I were to point to a

454
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: single thing, which is, hey, let's increase domestic manufacturing capacity

455
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 1: for some of these goods now that we have lived

456
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: through a crazy event, and we say, hey, actually, it's

457
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 1: probably not good to be relying on everyone. You know,

458
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: I'm looking right now at the United Kingdom. It's the

459
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: same thing. We were recently talking with someone Marshall and

460
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: I on our podcast, The Realignment, and somebody was saying

461
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,479
Speaker 1: they're blaming Brexit, and I was like, no, it has

462
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 1: nothing to do with Brexit, or maybe it does to

463
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 1: a marginal event. The Britain is an island nation. So

464
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: it would make sense to me that in the middle

465
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 1: of the greatest supply crisis since what World War Two

466
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: that we've seen on the global economy in a highly

467
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: more integrated, just on time delivery world, that yeah, the

468
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 1: islands are there going to be the people who suffer

469
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: the most. If that's one takeaway for me, that's what

470
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: it is. Let's make more stuff. Let's go back to

471
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: this weird period. March April May twenty twenty. Everyone is

472
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 1: peak unified in terms of COVID is a threat we're

473
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: concerned with, which it obviously is a threat. That's not disparagingally,

474
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 1: but it wasn't quite the culture war take that it

475
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 1: is today. We all have to dance around to certain degrees.

476
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 1: We all agreed. Hey, actually like domestic resilient supply chains

477
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: are incredibly important this world that we're describing. Once again,

478
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 1: this abys sikes of a globalization after Trump's election. But

479
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 1: the part that everyone likes, aka the fact that we

480
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 1: can get goods, we could move around road will we

481
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: really more than at any other time in human history.

482
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: That's all great, But this could be other pandemics. There

483
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: are gonna be other problems, like it's just very clear

484
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: that once again, if we talk about in foreign policy,

485
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: we have this idea d of the nineteen nineties, because

486
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union's gone, everything's going to be chill. Guess

487
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: what the lesson in twenty twenty is that world where

488
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: we just saw the benefits of globalization, where we just said, hey,

489
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 1: we can get whatever we get from whatever. Who cares

490
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 1: if we get our oranges from Mexico and our Semitic

491
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: countries from Taiwan, that's whatever. We are never going back

492
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: to that world. And there's something that President Biden has

493
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 1: to do, despite the cultural aspects of it, and this

494
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: is to anyone who succeeds Joe Biden too, They have

495
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 1: to focus on those resiliency things like what do we

496
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: do once we actually finally move past this, how do

497
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 1: we not just what that may twenty twenty consensus go away,

498
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 1: because it's going to be so easy to say, you

499
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: know what, let's get back to that that was really great.

500
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: We don't have to be able to manufacture at home

501
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 1: tasks or even containers, the least sexy thing ever domestically,

502
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: That curly is true. Especially we want to have a

503
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 1: good Christmas Hanukkah holiday, season. And this was the biggest

504
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 1: failure of Trump. I mean, and people get mad when

505
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 1: I talk about it, because, yeah, he might have been

506
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 1: the first president to talk about it, but he was

507
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: during he was president during a time where he could

508
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 1: have done something about it. And guess what net imports

509
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: from China are our fifty four percent under the Trump

510
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 1: administration in the year twenty twenty. And you know why.

511
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,719
Speaker 1: It's because Steve Minushin and a lot of people who

512
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: worked in his administration explicitly locked a buy American executive

513
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: order which was sitting inside of the National Security Council

514
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 1: written by Peter Navarro because they didn't want to piss

515
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: off the Chinese and ensure that we could continue to

516
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 1: have just in time delivery. And listen, maybe they were right,

517
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: maybe it would have led to the current situation that

518
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: we had right now. But at what point do we

519
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 1: deal with it? You have to do something, I mean,

520
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: we have to make sure like the shipping containers. Okay,

521
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: it sounds like we need to build some shipping containers

522
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,679
Speaker 1: in this country. It sounds like at home tests. I mean,

523
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 1: this is the most basic medical infrastructure, These COVID tests,

524
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 1: they're not rocket science. Folks. They make them all over

525
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: the world in Europe. From what I hear, it's even

526
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: government subsidized, and it costs like a dollar in order

527
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: to get it. Why do we have to go out

528
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 1: and buy it? What was I talking about earlier with

529
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: Crystal's kids? Why do we require these expensive PCR tests

530
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 1: for families? If you're a fan, I've had to go

531
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: get a last minute PCR test. Costs me like two

532
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars for a rapid PCR. I mean, yeah,

533
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: I can afford it, But what about somebody else If

534
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: you're out there? That sucks? Man, What are you supposed

535
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: to do? That's a huge hit in order to have

536
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: a just a last minute increase these we're all getting

537
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: taxed effectively for the failure of government after government after

538
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: government in order to make the country more resilient. And

539
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 1: so when you're a leader, it's your job in order

540
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 1: to do something about that. Of course, Congress right now

541
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 1: is more focused on like whatever subpoenas are going out

542
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: for January sixth, So I congratulate them on chasing the

543
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 1: biggest story of the year, But in my opinion, this

544
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 1: is it. Everybody at home can see, Hey, when I

545
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: order stuff, it takes a long time, and you just wait.

546
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 1: Come Christmas, it is going to be national headlines. I

547
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 1: ordered something for Christmas and it didn't get here until

548
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 1: you know, January or something, or I tried to order

549
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 1: this and they were out of stock. Everybody in America

550
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: is about to feel the consequences of this, and you

551
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: should make sure maybe send them a segment, send them

552
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: something in order to explain to them, be like, no,

553
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: this is a very long time thing coming that policymakers saw.

554
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 1: We were set up this way. We've had multiple opportunities

555
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: now to at least try and get on the better path,

556
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: and we haven't been doing it, and that is a

557
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: huge failure whenever it comes to Washington. Hey, so remember

558
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: how we told you how awesome premium membership was. Well,

559
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 1: here we are again to remind you that becoming a

560
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 1: premium member means you don't have to listen to our

561
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: constant please for you to subscribe. So what are you

562
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: waiting for? Become a premium member today by going to

563
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot com, which you can click on in the

564
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: show notes. Let's go ahead and move on here to

565
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: the Facebook whistleblower. Now I gotta put my cards on

566
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: the table. Crystal was more sympathetic to this person. She

567
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: seems to me like a total and complete setup. And

568
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: I mean by that in terms of I could not

569
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: think of somebody better crafted in order to serve the

570
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: mainstream narrative of MSNBC, CNN, and Fox or not Fox.

571
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: Actually in this particular case, MSNBC and CNN that Facebook

572
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: and Mark Zuckerberg in particular are uniquely responsible for the

573
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: ills of America, as in their algorithms are what caused

574
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: Trump January sixth, all of that, and oh, it didn't

575
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: have anything to do with their own coverage or many

576
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: of the people were on their network, the government policy

577
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 1: so that they pushed while they were in power. Can't

578
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: think of anything better than Nicole Wallace from the Bush

579
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 1: administration over at MSNBC. I just want to give people

580
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: an example of how this Facebook whistleblower is being used

581
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: by the mainstream media in order to push for rampant

582
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 1: more censorship. So like, here is the takeaway for Nicole

583
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: Wallace from this whistleblower. Let's take a listen to that

584
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: explosive new allegations from a whistleblower at Facebook who alleges

585
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: that the social media company's practices played a role in

586
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: emboldening the January sixth insurrection, prioritizing its own profits and

587
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: its own bottom line over the danger to democracy, a

588
00:28:55,880 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: pattern the whistleblower, Francis Hogan, calls a betrayal. Here were

589
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: her comments last night on sixty Minutes when she revealed

590
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: her identity for the very first time after leaking troves

591
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: of documents to the Wall Street Journal Watch. And one

592
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: of the consequences of how Facebook is picking out that

593
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: content today is it is optimizing for content that gets

594
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: engagement or reaction, but its own research is showing the

595
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: content that is hateful, that is divisive, that is polarizing.

596
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: It's easier to inspire people to anger than it is

597
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: to other emotions. Misinformation angry content is enticing to people

598
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: and keeps them on the platform. Yes, Facebook has realized

599
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: that if they change the algorithm to be safer, people

600
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: will spend less time on the site, they'll click on

601
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: less ads, they'll make less money. Hagan says Facebook understood

602
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: the danger to the twenty twenty election, so it turned

603
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: on safety systems to reduce misinformation too dangerous, But many

604
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: of those changes she said, is we're temporary, and as

605
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: soon as the election was over, they turned them back off,

606
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: or they change the settings back to what they were

607
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: before to prioritize growth over safety. And that really feels

608
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: like a betrayal of democracy to me. Betrayal of democracy Marshall,

609
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 1: I mean, is she right? What do you make of

610
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: this whole thing? You've followed Facebook and all that for

611
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: a long time. She's obviously being propped up by every

612
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: single establishment network there is. They seem to believe that

613
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 1: she is, you know, exposing some grand plan by Mark

614
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: Zuckerberg to tear us all apart. I mean, I'm not

615
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: saying technology doesn't having a course in that, but I think,

616
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: you know, it's probably a natural extension of what's going

617
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: on here. So what do you think? Yeah, Look, I

618
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: the one thing I would push back on is I

619
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: think people may misinterpret it is the idea that she's

620
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: just propped up. I think the whistle blower actually authentically,

621
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: really speak. She obviously believes this. Frankly, her Harvard background,

622
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: the company she's worked, that is not a surprise given

623
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: the educational demographics factor is that we actually cover all

624
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: the time. It is not surprising that a center left

625
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: to left person who works at a tech company would

626
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: believe those things. So I don't think this is propped up,

627
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 1: and I think actually, once again this is the problem.

628
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 1: This is why nothing actually ever happens with tech policy regulation.

629
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: We always at this point fifty percent of the country

630
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: actually agrees with us. So I don't want it to

631
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: say because products suggs, it's in organic. It's all sorts

632
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: of narratives about this marriage of convenience. Yeah, yes, yeah,

633
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: that's that's that's actually very important, which is that there's

634
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: a situation where she is saying exactly what a very

635
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: specific set of actors, which you and oftentimes this show

636
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: are very very very unhappy with, and frankly this audience too.

637
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: With those factors. There so several things like number one, look,

638
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: there are things that she is describing that are not

639
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: good that are going on there. Right. There's this whole

640
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: conversation about the role and Facebook's decision to not implement

641
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: changes based on the fact that they actually, within their

642
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: own own programs, have serious research indicating that Instagram and

643
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: other social apps owned by Facebook actually play a role

644
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: in dramatically lowering self esteem of teeing the young girls

645
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: and those different factors there too. So if there's actually

646
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: significant evidence within these leaked documents that that's actually happening,

647
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: we cannot just dismiss that and say that none of

648
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: that stuff really matters. The part here. It's just interesting

649
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: to me, and I think what people should take a

650
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 1: step back from is say, hey, look what problems And

651
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: this isn't my take, This is a friend told me

652
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 1: this this weekend. What problems or Facebook problems? And what

653
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: problems are Internet problems? And Internet problem seems to me

654
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: to be the fact that hey, we are throwing out billions,

655
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: if not trillions of images that people can see, because

656
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 1: this isn't just Instagram. This is TikTok, which Saccer and

657
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: I obviously have views on, but this is what it

658
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: exists on TikTok regardless. So trying to encapsulate all this

659
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: story down to Mark Zuckerberg makes the story pointless because

660
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: rather than having to be able to have a conversation

661
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: of hey, like, how should we as a society think

662
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: about algorithmic governance, how should we think about the issue

663
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: of what actually affects people' self esteem? Like, you know,

664
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,479
Speaker 1: another take that people are putting out this speak and goes, Hey,

665
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: in the nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties, we were worried

666
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: about magazines and the plaid and believe me, and these

667
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: were real things, but like we didn't regulate the magazine industry.

668
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: Not just trying to illustrated. Yeah, like there's an actual

669
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: dynamic here that we society have to come to. The

670
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: part that just frustrates me is I'm just I'll just

671
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: put my cards on the table. You did this last segment.

672
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: I'm just tired of the Facebook story at this point,

673
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: this has just become such a fifty to fifty partisan

674
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 1: issue where Facebook is operating once again, like Mark Zuckerberg

675
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: is obviously liberal, it's obviously like a like democratic company.

676
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: But the way these stories play out in terms of tribalism,

677
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: this is operation is going to be a fifty to

678
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: fifty story. So rather than having a conversation, well, hey,

679
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: how should Facebook think about the way that groups are run?

680
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 1: How should Facebook manage these controversies? What content you Facebook

681
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: amplify this or that it's going to turn into Did

682
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: you think January sixth was the worst day in American history?

683
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 1: Or did you think that it was just this fine, No,

684
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: not even fine. You think it was bad, but it

685
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: doesn't change everything. It was not the second nine to

686
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: eleven as some people have really said here, and that

687
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 1: means if that's the framing, we're not getting anywhere. We're

688
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: never going to get anywhere. To me. The meta story

689
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: and the big one is actually the most overlooked part

690
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 1: of the documents, but actually the most important. Let's put

691
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: it up there on the screen from Kevin Russ, which

692
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: is Facebook, it turns out is a lot weaker than

693
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 1: we knew. And Facebook's own data, which was inside the company,

694
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: shows that Facebook acknowledges two things. It's a massive behemoth

695
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: which has a virtual monopoly on old people, as in

696
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 1: a lot of old people forty and upward use the

697
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: site every day. They get a lot of their news

698
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: from it. But in terms of its future, it's terrible.

699
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 1: Old young people are dropping off like flies from Big Blue,

700
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: which is like the Facebook blue icon, to the extent

701
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: that they use it, they use Instagram. TikTok just this

702
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: year surpassed Instagram for time on app. Time on app

703
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: obviously is the most valuable commodity whenever it comes to advertisers,

704
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: because more time you spend on the app. The more

705
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 1: time that you can have, that more times that the

706
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 1: company knows about you. Thus, the more they can tweak

707
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: their algorithm in order to better serve advertisements to you

708
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: in between, and that young people who are even way

709
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: younger than us Marshall twenty years younger than us, like

710
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 1: eleven year olds and ten year olds say Facebook is

711
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 1: for old people, and they don't even use Instagram period,

712
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: They'll just use TikTok. And so if you're really looking

713
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: at the big meta story, Facebook has become almost like AOL.

714
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 1: Like I actually recently found out AOL still exists. It

715
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 1: doesn't just exist, but there are still a lot of

716
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: old people who have like AOL accounts And I was

717
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: like why, and it's like, oh, well, they're just really

718
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: old and they just never onboarded. Yeah, they were like, hey,

719
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 1: AOL is the Internet and like nineteen ninety nine, and

720
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: they just never stopped paying their bill. I think that's

721
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 1: kind of like Facebook. It makes a lot of money,

722
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 1: makes one hundred billion dollars year or something like that,

723
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: but think about its cultural relevance today. Obviously Instagram is there,

724
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: but think about where things are trending TikTok came in

725
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 1: and within a couple of years effectively nuked it in

726
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 1: terms of its supremacy for what was happening there on

727
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: the stage. So that's some more important discussion in my opinion,

728
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 1: which is, oh, it turns out Facebook is a dying star,

729
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 1: like you know, it was like a big thing, but

730
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: it is exploding like with stars, though it takes a

731
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: long time for that to happen. And what's funny is

732
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: there was another good newsletter at someone put out this

733
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: weekend where they said Facebook's business is still going up.

734
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: This is an incredible business. Like that's why this isn't

735
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,720
Speaker 1: quite aol because the secret of als it's actually terrible.

736
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: It's terrible. It's a terrible business. It was when it

737
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 1: merged with Time Warner it became one of the biggest

738
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,439
Speaker 1: mergers in American history. Now it's only worth like five

739
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: billion dollars, which given how it was worth hundreds of

740
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: billions of dollars, that's a disaster. Terrible business. But the

741
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 1: brand is dead. We talk about how Facebook shouldn't have

742
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 1: been allowed to acquire face you know, Instagram or WhatsApp.

743
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: Guess what they're not going to be allowed to acquire

744
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: anything back when Clubhouse was hot. This year that wasn't

745
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 1: even on the table for something that Facebook could actually purchase.

746
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 1: I don't quite then think the metaphor is Facebook equals AOL,

747
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 1: because once again the business still works, Facebook equals Microsoft.

748
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 1: And this is what people really have to understand when

749
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: they're talking about monopoly, when they're talking about these decisions,

750
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 1: and they're talking about should we frame the tech industry

751
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 1: around this topic. The year is two thousand and one.

752
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: There's this massive anti trust case because net because Netscape

753
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 1: created the first Internet browser and people said that Microsoft

754
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: use very anti competitive tactics to have Internet explore the Netscape.

755
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: That all happens. Microsoft doesn't end up getting broken up,

756
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: but it's very hobbled. The world moves on. Facebook rises,

757
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: Google rises, all of these new competitors happen. That's what's

758
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: happening now. Microsoft is still an excellent business. It's not

759
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 1: just an extra business. It's an incredible business. It's a

760
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: great place to actually use products. I've got my Microsoft

761
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: surface here, Wink wink wink. But the key thing here

762
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: is that at the end of the day, it is

763
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: not the death starve. It's controlling the tech industry, and

764
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 1: that is Facebook. And it's so frustrating to have these

765
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 1: conversations where we are actings of Facebook is like a

766
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 1: literal or figurative monopoly in the space. It's not twenty fourteen,

767
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: it's not twenty sixteen, it's not twenty seventeen. And any

768
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: conversation about this space that pretends as if Mark Zuckerberg

769
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 1: still controls social platforms in the very Internet itself is missing.

770
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: It is not going to go anywhere. Instead, what we

771
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 1: should all do is think, hey, moving forward, what does

772
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 1: this actually mean? Right? Moving forward, Let's take a look

773
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 1: over at Beijing and what's going on with TikTok, But

774
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: that's another story for another day. Let's move on to education.

775
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: This was something Marshall, you're pretty interested in. I didn't

776
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 1: know a lot about it, but the more that I

777
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: look into it, it actually is seem pretty troubling. So

778
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: let's put this up there on the screen. In terms

779
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,399
Speaker 1: of what we've got going on here. Bill Deblasio, as

780
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: one of those last acts of mayor, is actually going

781
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 1: to go in and kill the New York City Gifted

782
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: and Talented Program. So what it is is that the

783
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: highly selective program which was a symbol of what the

784
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: New York Times says is segregation for incoming students is

785
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:16,240
Speaker 1: now going to be effectively is going to be effectively

786
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: killed the people who are inside the program. They said,

787
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 1: it will not go away, but new people will not

788
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: be accepted. Should be clear here, he's making this a

789
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: matter of policy. But what they say is that Eric

790
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 1: Adams would actually have to implement to that policy if

791
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 1: and when he is selected. I mean, I assume that's

792
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 1: going to happen. So what do you make of this

793
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 1: whole thing, Marshall? I mean, the New York Times, it

794
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: seems pretty inflammatory for them to say, literally point to

795
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 1: it as a quote glaring symbol of segregation in school.

796
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 1: They don't even quote somebody whenever they make that claim.

797
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 1: I mean, that seems pretty outrageous whenever it comes to

798
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: what they're claiming here, you know, in terms of obviously

799
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: brings up matters of race and more. What do you

800
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 1: make of it in terms of what's going on here? Yeah,

801
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: most of you know that I recently moved from DC

802
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 1: to Brooklyn, so I'm actually, you know, I don't know,

803
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: I don't know stitue. Yeah, yeah, I'm technically a stituent.

804
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 1: I don't have kids or anything, so I'm not quite

805
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: making decisions about public schooling. But if we're looking back

806
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: over the past few months of breaking points and stuff

807
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 1: we've discussed in the realignment, it's actually crazy how much

808
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: local schooling has become this hyper important issue. So even

809
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: if you don't live in New York, even if you're

810
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 1: not you know, if if your kid is in a

811
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: gifted and talented program, A quick statement that should be

812
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: made to address my own biases. I was tested in

813
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: fourth grade, did not make it into a gifted and

814
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 1: talented program. So maybe there's a set of you know,

815
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 1: deep regestrations there. But here's the thing that is really

816
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: interesting to me. I hated the use of segregation in

817
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 1: the way they're framing this program because here's the context context.

818
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: If you look at these gifted, gifted and talented programs,

819
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 1: seventy five percent of these students are Asian or white.

820
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: This is also much again like the debate about schools

821
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 1: like Stuyvesant, which are these very elite test admittance based

822
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,800
Speaker 1: schools where the actual vast majority of people who attend

823
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: the schools are actually Asian and are not Black or hispanic,

824
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: causing once again a conversation about race and equity. And

825
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: here's the thing, I'm not just trying to junk to

826
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: dunk on people who are liberal Democrats, like left of center,

827
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 1: like the actual conversation about, hey, like, how do we

828
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 1: ensure that, especially in public schools, people get proper educations,

829
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: people have access to resources. That's an incredibly important one.

830
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: So I'm not trying to come in here and say, hey,

831
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: like everything that was happening in New York City was

832
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: totally okay in the article because once again, despite the

833
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: annoying segregation, where there's some interesting reporting here, there's those

834
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 1: sorts of conversations about how you could modify these programs

835
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 1: to make them more equitable. For example, under the status quo,

836
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: parents have to actually say, hey, I want to have

837
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 1: my kid test it, So hey, guest everybody exactly that

838
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: it could be a policy that could say, hey, there

839
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 1: could obviously be a disparate level of parental engagement. Okay,

840
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: maybe rather than testing because they do the testing in kindergarten,

841
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 1: we could be like Oregon where I'm from, and test

842
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 1: in fourth Great, you could have a totally fair and

843
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 1: honest conversation about these equity points about the points there,

844
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 1: But the second you throw in segregation it completely Once again,

845
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 1: this goes back to our Facebook conversation. Something the two

846
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 1: of us are obsessment obsessed with. We cover this on

847
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 1: the realignment, we cover this. Here is what language are

848
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 1: we using to describe very complicated public policy programs. The

849
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: word segregation suggests that there is some person will sitting

850
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 1: in the New York City Public School's office just twirling

851
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 1: his or her I guess his in this case mustache, yeah,

852
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:49,240
Speaker 1: making the statement that, oh, now Asians control the gifted.

853
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 1: That's not happening like that. Segregation in the Deep South

854
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: was an actual evil plan that was implemented by actual people.

855
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 1: And the solution to that actual evil plan was, franklyitest

856
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: past laws and to make Supreme Court decisions saying, hey,

857
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,720
Speaker 1: you cannot literally say black people go to one school,

858
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 1: white people go to another school. In New York, we

859
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:11,720
Speaker 1: have this issue where there are disparate levels of access

860
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 1: their different levels there. But the second you make this

861
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: about that type of word not only mischaracterized the actual issue,

862
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 1: but you basically make it so that a politician, in

863
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: this case, build to Lasio could effectively just basically say, hey,

864
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: we're facing this out. We now have equity. Now everything's fair,

865
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: we're reducing segregation. But at no point are those metrics

866
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: he's establishing actually helping us have a deeper conversation up. Hey,

867
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: you know, to quote a former president George W. Bush, like,

868
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 1: is our children learning? It's actually a very important question.

869
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: Despite the mangoid syntax, it actually is an important question

870
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: of like, hey, like of those kids who are now

871
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: going into like less segregated schools. By his statement, are

872
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: we learning more? Is there more opportunity? There is a meritocracy,

873
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 1: which is a very important part of our country actually operating.

874
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting too, Let's put this New York

875
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 1: Post thing up there on the screen. When you go

876
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 1: ahead and you look in there. There are a lot

877
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: of quotes in this story from people who are in

878
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: queens and representatives from areas with the higher Asian population

879
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 1: in New York City itself, and they're frust their outrage

880
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: by it. So this could absolutely galvanize a pretty engaged

881
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 1: segment of the population, to say the least. But like

882
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 1: you said, it's not like somebody is out there who

883
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 1: is saying, oh, you know what, we're gonna take these

884
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: whites and Rasians and we're gonna separate them from all

885
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,399
Speaker 1: of these Hispanic black kids and other you know, poor

886
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 1: whites and poor Asians where and we're going to create

887
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: some sort of by you know, buy furcated system. Nobody's

888
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 1: saying that I didn't even know that point about testing.

889
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 1: That makes complete sense to me. If I recall in Texas,

890
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: everybody was tested, So why don't you just do that.

891
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 1: You could just make it so that everybody could be

892
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: tested and make it so that there obviously we would

893
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 1: see an increase in in you know, equity or whatever

894
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 1: as long as the test is okay and then okay,

895
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 1: you know, like you said, move the test from kindergarten

896
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 1: to third grade or fourth grade. These things have been

897
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: studied for a long time. The message they're sending is

898
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: that gifted and talented was inherently racist. And that is where,

899
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 1: you know, I just completely obviously get off the train.

900
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 1: And I see this very much in the vein of

901
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 1: some other craziness that we see kind of happening across

902
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: the nation, where racial outcomes themselves are the sole determinant

903
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 1: of what we should be looking at. And yeah, it

904
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: should be one determinant. It should be a consideration. It

905
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 1: should be something, Well, if you see zero percent of

906
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 1: people who are black or whatever, I'm not saying that's

907
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 1: the case, who are getting in You say, hey, what's

908
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 1: going on here? You know, we have x amount of population.

909
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: What can we do? You know, maybe we could try

910
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 1: this or that. But instead they look at it and

911
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: they just go that is inherently terrible, and then they

912
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: just kill it. And you know, in terms of the

913
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: political implications of this, this is the type of stuff

914
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 1: which drives people crazy. I mean when you start to

915
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 1: mess with people's kids and their education, as you're seeing now.

916
00:45:57,640 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 1: Some of the hottest protests in the country right now

917
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: are masks and critical race theory mass in particular, I

918
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,439
Speaker 1: would say like that one. I mean I've never seen

919
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 1: school parent teacher conferences or whatever like that before critical

920
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: race theory obviously, And whichever way you fall on that,

921
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 1: people feel real hot and they go and they go

922
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,720
Speaker 1: to the mat for it. You know, people getting recalled

923
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 1: on school boards and more. This is the same type

924
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 1: of thing, Marshall, where you could absolutely see some sort

925
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 1: I don't even necessarily think it would be a Republican

926
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: because some of the people I'm seeing here quoted who

927
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 1: are protesting are actually Democrats who represented This is a

928
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 1: lot to clear. This is New York City. Everyone we're

929
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 1: talking about is operationally liberal here, right, So there, from

930
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 1: what I see is, oh, this is just sets another

931
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 1: perfect If I'm Eric Adams, is one of the first

932
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: things that I do in order to try and reverse.

933
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 1: If I'm Eric Adams, one of the very first thing

934
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be like, hey, you know what that was stupid.

935
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 1: We're going to do what you said, which is that

936
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 1: we're going to test everybody and have all this and

937
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: brilliant NYC is going to be our thing. Well, here's

938
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 1: what's interesting about that. And this is the part which

939
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 1: is super difficult here Eric Adams. Once again, Eric Adams is,

940
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:06,399
Speaker 1: I think, despite everything, a very good actual politician, keeping

941
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: his ear down to the ground. Eric Adams is spoken

942
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: up in favor of the Gifted and Talented program. Here

943
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: is the thing, though, and this is why you probably

944
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 1: just can't just say we're going to reverse it. The

945
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 1: guidance is already out. So the way it works is

946
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 1: this year is incoming cohort of Gifted and towent students

947
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: are going to be the last cohort. So when it

948
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: comes to these testing questions, the system's been set up.

949
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,839
Speaker 1: And once again he hasn't even technically been elected there yet,

950
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:33,239
Speaker 1: so this has happened. So the broader takeaway that I

951
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 1: want people to really think about here is, as we

952
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 1: are going into these really high per polarized, actually for

953
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 1: once localized debate, no one's bringing in this is like

954
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 1: a Trump thing or this is like a Joe Biden thing.

955
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 1: This is actually this very specific issue. As we are

956
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 1: looking at these complicated issues as like the country's demographics

957
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: like actually change, we should say to ourselves, hey, like,

958
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: is the word segregation particularly useful when we're talking about

959
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: majority of Asian immigrant students here? Is that quite it?

960
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 1: Because I don't think it actual is. No, I don't

961
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: just think I know that's not actually yet. There is

962
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 1: a different better word for the different better for a framework,

963
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: because you cannot have the message the number one thing

964
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 1: that I saw people just pushing it on Twitter when

965
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 1: they saw this story, because look it's Twitter, people, aren't

966
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 1: you going into the nuance here? The message seems to

967
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 1: be to folks that wow, like New York City just

968
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 1: is totally given up on meritocracy. New York City doesn't

969
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,399
Speaker 1: care what xos. New York City doesn't want to offer

970
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 1: people who are working really hard, oftentimes are immigrants, the

971
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 1: actual opportunity to level themselves up. That is the wrong takeaway.

972
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 1: And if you are a person, if you are a

973
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: part of the left, part of this audience, and you

974
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 1: actually wake up every day thinking that like equity, racial

975
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 1: quart are the number one issues you care about, you

976
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 1: do not want to have the reaction that people have

977
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: these sort of policies be like wow, like New York

978
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 1: City just doesn't care about merit That is the last

979
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:49,879
Speaker 1: thing you want this national, hyper polarized electorate to see

980
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,839
Speaker 1: your policies through. No, I completely agree, and I think

981
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 1: it is going to be a big problem for them

982
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: in the future, especially if Adams can't reverse it. So

983
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 1: let's move on to a story very close to our hearts.

984
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: I love this or you guys know, I love outsiders,

985
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,760
Speaker 1: and I love whenever they start to engage in politics.

986
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: This one Matthew McConaughey, who I've watched for quite a

987
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 1: long time. Now, remember he's leading in the polls there,

988
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 1: Governor Abbott by nine points. Now you can say, look

989
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: he hasn't been defined yet, he hasn't picked a political

990
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 1: party and all that. Well, he has broken his silence

991
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: about whether he's going to run for governor. He's even

992
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: addressed why he hasn't actually waded into any specific actual

993
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:28,240
Speaker 1: policy matters. And Marshall and I found it really interesting.

994
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,720
Speaker 1: It was an interview with The New York Times, which, Matthew,

995
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: if you're ever listening or watching, go to somebody else

996
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 1: next time, because you'll get a better interview. Let's take

997
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 1: a listen. You said politics needs redefinition, So why not

998
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 1: redefine it? Who? What's that? Right? Yeah? I mean, please help.

999
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 1: I'd love to hear some definitions. I'm working on what

1000
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 1: I'm trying to understand politics to be. I think we

1001
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: got to redefine politics. If each party's only about preservation

1002
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:05,719
Speaker 1: of party, well I'm almost arguing that's that's undemocratic. If

1003
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: you're only there to buy hook or by crook preserve

1004
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 1: your party, you're leaving out percent of people. So I

1005
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 1: think politics needs a redefining. Look, are they're parties so

1006
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 1: extreme right now that they're going to walk their way

1007
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: into extinction? I don't know what our fear is, you know,

1008
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 1: great nations don't aren't taken over from the outside, they

1009
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: implode civil war. That's the big fear for me for

1010
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: the country. If this path we're going, it's not constructive.

1011
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 1: I don't see the way out right now through politics

1012
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: unless it redefines itself and repurposes itself. Why are you

1013
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: not doing that, letting anybody know who you're for, who

1014
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 1: you're against. Room for issues where I'm standing on this,

1015
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 1: and bills and laws and policies, et cetera. Yeah, on purpose,

1016
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 1: I figures on purpose right now. Taking sides on a

1017
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 1: political issue right now, to me precedes the discussion of

1018
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: something larger and much more important, like the questions we

1019
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 1: were asking a minute ago. Definition is what the hell's politics?

1020
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 1: But you got to read before we start saying, Hey,

1021
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 1: this is why I stand. This is why I stand,

1022
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 1: which creates already a divide or some fifty percent of

1023
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 1: people are going to come at you. Let's answer these

1024
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: other questions about purpose of democracy? All right? What is progress?

1025
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 1: How about this question? Do we really want to be

1026
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 1: a United States of America? And I don't say that

1027
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 1: with arrogance or condensation. It's a question we've got to answer.

1028
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 1: What is leadership. Why is our nation's trust level so

1029
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 1: low with our leaders, with ourselves, with each other. That's

1030
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 1: more interesting to me before we start hopping in the

1031
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: middle of politics and going well, this is where I

1032
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,359
Speaker 1: stand here, and this is where I stand here, everybody

1033
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 1: needs to be in the conversation to answer the questions

1034
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 1: that I was just bringing up. What do you think

1035
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: of that? Marshall Wesucker, I want you to bring up

1036
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 1: something you said on Twitter because it really speaks to

1037
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 1: why we both had a really deep reaction. You said

1038
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: that that segment, Matthew McConaughey showed a better understanding of

1039
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 1: politics than people in this space we're in DC. What

1040
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 1: did you mean by that? Yeah, I've explained it here

1041
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 1: on the show every time. Right now, we're the number

1042
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 1: one podcast on Spotify for news. Thank you. Shout out

1043
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: to everybody, and people ask me in DC all the

1044
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: time because they just don't get it. They're like, wow,

1045
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: is this possible? And I go, here's the difference. You

1046
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 1: care about capital P politics. Capital P politics is exactly

1047
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 1: what he said, which is that, Oh, where do you

1048
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 1: stand on Texas's SB two? Where do you stand on

1049
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 1: the abortion implementation? What about the January sixth Commission. What

1050
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 1: about this is all bs in my opinion. You know

1051
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 1: what politics is to me? How does these economic shortages

1052
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: that the port of la impact your life? This Facebook thing?

1053
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 1: Should you care or not? Using technology? It's how we

1054
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 1: all are we being governed or should we govern them? Education?

1055
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 1: The way that we have our kids in schools. Can

1056
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 1: you think of a more important question? My monologue is

1057
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 1: going to be about the crisis of America men and

1058
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: about the single male wages and the drop off in

1059
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: the last thirty years. To me, that's something called small

1060
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 1: pe politics. What it means to be a human in

1061
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 1: a society. And I know that sounds really vague, but

1062
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 1: it's really important. The ways that you and I interact

1063
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 1: with the world, there are all sorts of meta choices

1064
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 1: that are being made by people in charge that impact

1065
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: that on a huge day to day basis. The people

1066
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: who impacted our trade policy with China thirty years ago

1067
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: set us up for where we're at right now in

1068
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 1: terms of our shortages. The people who made it in

1069
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 1: internet regulations and more made it so that Amazon could exist.

1070
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 1: These are all questions that we actually have to answer.

1071
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 1: McConaughey is getting at. Look, I don't think that's politics.

1072
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 1: To me, what he's getting at is the major meta

1073
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:48,359
Speaker 1: question that Krystal and I try to answer here every day.

1074
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 1: Why are people so angry all the time? Why does

1075
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 1: everybody hate each other? Why is negative partisanship at the

1076
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 1: highest level ever in modern American history? And why is

1077
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: it that Donald Trump, of buffoon, of every metric got

1078
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:07,800
Speaker 1: seventy five million votes in the last twenty twenty presidential election.

1079
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 1: And then also how is it that so many people

1080
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 1: can look at Joe Biden, who's almost like eighty years old,

1081
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 1: and say, you know what, that's the guy in order

1082
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 1: to save us. You can like those people, you can

1083
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: hate him whatever you should want to know. The answer

1084
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,760
Speaker 1: to that, this is our country, And what he's getting

1085
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 1: at is do we want to be one country? A

1086
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 1: lot of people, it seems, don't. I mean a lot

1087
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,759
Speaker 1: of people hate each other so much that they're at

1088
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 1: a point where they're like, it's irreconcilable differences. How much

1089
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 1: of left politics, and I mean that by like, center

1090
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 1: left establishment Democrat politics is just we need to deliver

1091
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 1: a knockout punch of the Republicans pack the Supreme Court,

1092
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,239
Speaker 1: you know, whatever, with the Senate and just make it

1093
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 1: so that our national popular vote and then that's it. Boom,

1094
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 1: it's over. And then how much of Republican politics is

1095
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 1: just weaponizing some of these structural advantages I just talked about,

1096
00:54:57,320 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 1: let's all be honest and making it so that they

1097
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: can defend the interests of like twenty two percent of

1098
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:05,920
Speaker 1: the population who disproportionately live in the American South. Does

1099
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 1: that sound like a good system to you? I mean,

1100
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 1: these are questions where you have to ask, is this

1101
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:14,440
Speaker 1: how it's all supposed to work? Can we change it?

1102
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 1: This is why, Look, everybody was going after Andrew Yang.

1103
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: This is why I was interested what Andrew Yang had

1104
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: to say. Andrew Yang's trying to answer the right question.

1105
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 1: He goes, hey, is there anything we can do about this?

1106
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 1: I mean, does it have to be this way? And

1107
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:27,880
Speaker 1: this is what McConaughey is trying to get at too.

1108
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 1: And I know a lot of people are going to

1109
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 1: be mad or whatever. Obviously he's obviously liberal, Okay, like

1110
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 1: that's not an issue. But to me, he is speaking

1111
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 1: to the right question. What do you think? See I

1112
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,800
Speaker 1: actually I actually just actually disagreement. Book. We just spoke

1113
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 1: with Andrew. I think McConaughey and Yang are doing two

1114
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: different things here. Sure, So I just want to pull

1115
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 1: out what is so incredibly important here for everybody, which

1116
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 1: is basically that if you're looking at what McConaughey is

1117
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 1: actually saying, because this is all over Twitter, all these

1118
00:55:57,680 --> 00:56:00,040
Speaker 1: people were saying, everyone was dunking. Yeah, people were teking like,

1119
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:01,880
Speaker 1: why didn't you give a specific answer an sp Well,

1120
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:04,320
Speaker 1: I might you give a specific answer on how he

1121
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 1: would handle the abortion issue that is zooming too far

1122
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 1: into the political system right now, because the key thing

1123
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,400
Speaker 1: is Beta or Work is most likely also going to run.

1124
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:15,879
Speaker 1: Karris Wisher also did an interview with Beto and guess

1125
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,359
Speaker 1: who's down in the polls right now? Beto is down

1126
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 1: in the polls. So it's very frustrating if you're basically

1127
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 1: a Democrat and I you should ask us of hey,

1128
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 1: like is Beto coming out swinging with like this hyper

1129
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 1: part doesn't take or that potake? Is that actually the

1130
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:34,360
Speaker 1: particularly effective way to get elected and govern in a

1131
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 1: complicated systems of sort of ourselves. The part that Matthew

1132
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 1: did here that was so important, the part that I'm

1133
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,439
Speaker 1: obsessed with is he just took a step back and said, Hey,

1134
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 1: let's actually answer these questions. And this is why I'm saying,

1135
00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 1: this is what different when Yang's do Yang is saying

1136
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 1: what structural change do I think I need to do

1137
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: to the political system? In his case, it's the ranked

1138
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 1: choice voting. It is the overall issue of open primaries.

1139
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 1: But once again, I think that is zooming in too closely,

1140
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 1: because the broader question is, Hey, Mike, and he said this,

1141
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 1: how do you get trust back? Because I pushed Andrew

1142
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 1: on this, and to be a frank, I wasn't particularly

1143
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:09,800
Speaker 1: happy with his answer. When Andrew makes his third party,

1144
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:12,000
Speaker 1: when he goes to the forward the first forward meeting,

1145
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 1: how is he going to retain trust? Yes? How how

1146
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: is he going to convince all these people? But hey,

1147
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 1: when they see Andrew we need to take a position

1148
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 1: on Iron Dome. When he tells them, no, we're not

1149
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 1: going to do that, which he said, he was going

1150
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 1: to say, guess what, They're not going to trust him.

1151
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 1: He is going to alienate a huge portion of his audience.

1152
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 1: So when you just jump in to these very political

1153
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 1: questions and do like, wait, like, how do I actually

1154
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 1: answer the trust question? Hey, how do I actually deliver

1155
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:39,919
Speaker 1: and conceive what this country is that will actually enable

1156
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 1: you to actually do things. The key takeaway from the

1157
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 1: past few years is any time anyone has made this

1158
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 1: effort to say, like, I'm AOC and I support the

1159
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 1: Green New Deal, the Green New Deal could be the

1160
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 1: greatest policy ever. I'm not dunking on anything that it's

1161
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 1: actually stating. But the second that that's done, so it's over.

1162
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 1: Josh Holly say we want about him, Josh Holly has

1163
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: rather sophisticated thoughts on tech regulation. The second that he

1164
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 1: gets specific, it's over. Because these people think that the

1165
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 1: way to solving these questions of trust, political unity, what

1166
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 1: does it mean to be an American citizen in the

1167
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: twenty twenties, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. By focusing

1168
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 1: on policy things which, regardless of their merits, are going

1169
00:58:18,120 --> 00:58:20,160
Speaker 1: to be polarized, they are missing the point. And what

1170
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 1: Matthew is doing so well here and what every politician,

1171
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 1: aspirin or otherwise should be looking at, is he's taking

1172
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 1: a step back and doing what we both believe successful

1173
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 1: politicians during this mom will do, which is they will

1174
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:35,160
Speaker 1: ask the right question. I think what matters about what

1175
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 1: he's saying, is it's less important he individually believes very

1176
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 1: seeing a specific issue. What matters is him being able

1177
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 1: to say, hey, you can trust me. Everything I do

1178
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 1: is there and once again it's something that is very

1179
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 1: important to capture the interview. Is he actually once again

1180
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 1: this is going to piss off a portion of this audience.

1181
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 1: He specifically says, when pushed by Kara, look, I actually

1182
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 1: supported the mask mandate in Texas. Say we want about that.

1183
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 1: The fact that he's starting with how do I get

1184
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 1: people to trust me? And then if you hear him

1185
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 1: care about trust, you hear him actually care what people say.

1186
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 1: Whenever he supports something you don't believe, you know what

1187
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 1: you're gonna say yourself, Well, benefit of may he may

1188
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,000
Speaker 1: disagree with him, but guess what. I don't think he's corrupt.

1189
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 1: I don't think he's trying to kill me. I don't

1190
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 1: think he's trying to ruin my life. We just disagree.

1191
00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 1: We're always going to disagree as a society. That's how

1192
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 1: a vigorous, quas high and artchic democracy is going to work.

1193
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 1: But it's very important we have politicians to understand their

1194
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 1: first job right now is not here's this super wonky

1195
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 1: program that's definitely not going to pass anyways. It's how

1196
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:32,920
Speaker 1: do I actually get at least two thirds of the country,

1197
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 1: especially that moderate, radical centrist majority that we always talk about,

1198
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 1: to say, hey, if this person is actually trying to

1199
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 1: do the right thing, even if we disagree with what

1200
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 1: they always say, you know, it's interesting. He actually kind

1201
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:44,479
Speaker 1: of doubled down on that. He was like, hey, sixty

1202
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: percent of us are exhausted, man, he goes, sixty percent

1203
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 1: of us can't stand this, and he was talking exactly.

1204
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: I wonder if he's been listening. So, Matthew, if you

1205
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 1: have get in touch. It's funny. I take away that

1206
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 1: everybody was laughing at him in the current political system.

1207
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 1: And look, I mean, you know, arts off making he's like,

1208
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: whoa sounds and it does sound a little ridiculous, But

1209
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 1: then he starts talking, and I was like, well, you know,

1210
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 1: I was reminded of I've interviewed Trump a lot of

1211
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 1: times in person. Whenever we would transcribe it, you'd always

1212
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 1: look to be like, this doesn't make any sense. But

1213
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:19,320
Speaker 1: when I was there, it made total sense. And I'm

1214
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 1: not defending a lot of the stuff they said but

1215
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 1: more of what it is is that you miss out

1216
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: and this is what was happening. Everyone was dunky on

1217
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 1: for not having an answer, saying what they saw as

1218
01:00:29,760 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 1: a transcrip. He was like measuring. It's a great word, right,

1219
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 1: but when you listen to it, and what he was

1220
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: trying to talk about is exactly about like definitions and measuring,

1221
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: trying to get to a deeper question. Now, I still

1222
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 1: remain and I still think he would be one of

1223
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 1: the most formidable political figures ever if he did decide

1224
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:48,479
Speaker 1: to run, and I absolutely do think that he would

1225
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 1: win in the state of Texas. I mean right now,

1226
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 1: the last poll that had Hi commission hated him up

1227
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 1: like thirteen points. The fact that Beto came within two

1228
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 1: points of winning just against Ted Cruz, who was a

1229
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 1: widely reviled figure. We had the McConaughey star power, name

1230
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 1: recognition on top of what I think is a pretty

1231
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 1: effective political message. Absolutely could do something in that state. Now,

1232
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:11,200
Speaker 1: he might run even as an independent. He actually alluded

1233
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 1: to that in the segment, so that would be even

1234
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 1: more interesting to me. I really would be intrigued to

1235
01:01:17,360 --> 01:01:20,080
Speaker 1: see how it all shakes out. But more importantly, Yeah,

1236
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 1: let's give a lost word on this was basically that

1237
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 1: what I will put forward. I'm curious what people think

1238
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: about this. I would put forward if we had a president,

1239
01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 1: a governor, a state representative who's basically the only thing

1240
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 1: they thought about for their two four six eight years

1241
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:36,920
Speaker 1: in office was how do we restore trust? How do

1242
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 1: we actually answer that question? I think that'd be one

1243
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:44,440
Speaker 1: hundred times more productive than the most policy wonky talking

1244
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 1: pointsified DCPR shopped version of here's why I believe this

1245
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 1: specific thing about abortion, Here's why I believe this very

1246
01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 1: specific thing about voting rights. Because once again, the reason

1247
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 1: why none of those talking points will actually be implemented

1248
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 1: is that no one trust what anyone is actually saying. Yeah,

1249
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 1: you know, and it's funny too whenever you're saying that

1250
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 1: in terms of all the talking points, all that stuff,

1251
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 1: which is that guess what, guys, I've said this before.

1252
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 1: Governor of Texas is basically a fake position. It doesn't

1253
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:15,520
Speaker 1: have a lot of power. Part of the reason's w

1254
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 1: was not prepared to be commander in chief is because

1255
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:22,760
Speaker 1: the governor of Texas and our state was specifically designed

1256
01:02:23,240 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 1: not to have a lot of executive power. The legislature

1257
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 1: doesn't even meet that often so that they don't pass

1258
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 1: too many laws. It's actually baked into the DNA, so

1259
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 1: it's a pretty ceremonial post. You can take a look

1260
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:37,200
Speaker 1: at Rick Perry and George W. Bush and see why,

1261
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 1: and that's what would be going on here. So just

1262
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,480
Speaker 1: my own little preface, it's going to be interesting. Wow,

1263
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 1: you guys must really like listening to our voices. Well,

1264
01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:47,680
Speaker 1: I know this is annoying. Instead of making you listen

1265
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 1: to a Viagra commercial. When you're done, check out the

1266
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 1: other podcast I do with Marshal Kastoff called The Realignment.

1267
01:02:53,120 --> 01:02:55,120
Speaker 1: We talk a lot about the deeper issues that are

1268
01:02:55,200 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 1: changing realigning in American society. You always need more Crystal

1269
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 1: and Zag in your daily lives. Take care, guys. Okay,

1270
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 1: let's get to my monologue. Something bad right now is

1271
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 1: happening for American men. And before I start, let me

1272
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 1: say I don't have any answers for you as to why,

1273
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 1: and I don't have anyone to blame. I don't even

1274
01:03:11,400 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 1: really know how deep the problem goes. But what I

1275
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:15,960
Speaker 1: do know is that the crisis amongst men in America

1276
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 1: today is leading some really bad outcomes for our society,

1277
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: and it's beginning to show itself everywhere in American life.

1278
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 1: The first warning shot across the bow came from the

1279
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal earlier this month. Marshall I actually discussed

1280
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:30,240
Speaker 1: this the Last Army's on the show, but it's worth

1281
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 1: repeating some of the core conclusions from that story. Quote.

1282
01:03:34,240 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 1: At the close of the twenty twenty one academic year,

1283
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: women made up fifty nine point five percent of college

1284
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:43,280
Speaker 1: students in all time high men forty point five percent.

1285
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: According to enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse, US

1286
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 1: colleges and universities had one point five million fewer students

1287
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:55,760
Speaker 1: compared with five years ago, and men accounted for seventy

1288
01:03:55,840 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 1: one percent of that decline. Okay, that's stunning. If the

1289
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 1: trend holds, within the next five years, two thirds of

1290
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:06,120
Speaker 1: all college degrees in the United States will be granted

1291
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 1: to women. The mail drop off in college holds across race, age, geography,

1292
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:15,720
Speaker 1: and economic background. In other words, unlike many stories in

1293
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 1: America today, it's not class or race, it's gender. There's

1294
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 1: one no one reason as to why men are choosing

1295
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 1: to forego college, but there is a consensus on one thing.

1296
01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:28,720
Speaker 1: This is really not good for society. Like it or not,

1297
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:31,280
Speaker 1: a four year college degree is required for entry to

1298
01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:34,439
Speaker 1: the upper echelon of America. Think about how many jobs

1299
01:04:34,480 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 1: that have nothing to do with college still require a degree.

1300
01:04:37,760 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 1: And from there that's just the entry point media, economics, politics, law, business,

1301
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 1: venture capital. Almost all professional professional jobs today require a

1302
01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:51,960
Speaker 1: college degree. It's simply a bare minim to even get

1303
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 1: a shot at competing. Now, not having half the population

1304
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 1: participating that is going to lead to some real weird outcomes.

1305
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 1: But here's the thing. College numbers, it turns out, is

1306
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 1: just a bat signal for a much deeper problem. New

1307
01:05:06,320 --> 01:05:09,280
Speaker 1: data from Pew Research with pre COVID data finds that

1308
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 1: men are now much more likely to be single than women. Now,

1309
01:05:13,080 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 1: you might think there is nothing wrong with that. Single

1310
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 1: days were fun after all, But on a societal wide level,

1311
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:21,720
Speaker 1: more single men has all sorts of downstream effects which

1312
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 1: are terrible. Listen to this quote. Single men are much

1313
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:28,520
Speaker 1: more likely to be unemployed, financially fragile, to lack a

1314
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 1: college degree than those with a partner. They're likely to

1315
01:05:31,000 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 1: have lower median earnings. Single men earn less in twenty

1316
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:38,600
Speaker 1: nineteen than in nineteen ninety. Even adjusting for inflation. You

1317
01:05:38,640 --> 01:05:41,600
Speaker 1: know what's even weirder. Single women are actually earning the

1318
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 1: exact same amount than that they were thirty years ago,

1319
01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:48,520
Speaker 1: but those with partners are earning fifty percent more than previously.

1320
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:52,080
Speaker 1: Something is uniquely happening amongst men that has made them

1321
01:05:52,160 --> 01:05:55,080
Speaker 1: not only more single, but actually making a lot less money.

1322
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:58,560
Speaker 1: And it turns out that itself is a vicious feedback loop.

1323
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 1: People who are financial stable are much more likely to

1324
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:04,919
Speaker 1: find and attract a partner. Look, it's not that people

1325
01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:08,480
Speaker 1: are gold diggers. They're not. It's that a societal signal

1326
01:06:08,600 --> 01:06:10,840
Speaker 1: that you're able to provide and have a certain type

1327
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:15,320
Speaker 1: of seriousness is really important. Twenty seventeen, Pew research data

1328
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:17,960
Speaker 1: found that seventy one percent of US adults said that

1329
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 1: being able to support a family financially is very important

1330
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 1: for a man to be a good partner, pretty much

1331
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:26,680
Speaker 1: equal amongst men and women who said that. Only twenty

1332
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 1: five percent in the other case for both men and

1333
01:06:29,400 --> 01:06:31,800
Speaker 1: women said the case was for a female partner. So,

1334
01:06:32,040 --> 01:06:34,400
Speaker 1: like it or not, employment and earnings is pretty much

1335
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:37,080
Speaker 1: tied to our dating and marriage market, if you were

1336
01:06:37,240 --> 01:06:39,960
Speaker 1: to say so in America, which means that our economic

1337
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 1: conditions is a country determine one of the most important

1338
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 1: parts of our lives. Acknowledging that reality reveals a terrible

1339
01:06:47,240 --> 01:06:49,680
Speaker 1: reality for a lot of American men. The more and

1340
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 1: longer that you are a single male, the worse your

1341
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 1: economic health and marriage prospects become. The more likely you

1342
01:06:56,760 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 1: are to live with your parents and longer, and the

1343
01:06:59,760 --> 01:07:02,920
Speaker 1: more more and longer it happens, the larger the trend

1344
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:06,840
Speaker 1: amongst the male population is, and thus the worst outcome

1345
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 1: for men on society wide level continues. Get this, Seventy

1346
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 1: three percent of men without a partner in twenty nineteen

1347
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 1: were employed. Ninety percent of those who are partnered were employed.

1348
01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 1: Twenty six percent of unpartnered have attended college, thirty seven

1349
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:22,760
Speaker 1: percent of partner and have attended college. The same gap

1350
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 1: exists amongst married Americans. A four year college degree right

1351
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:28,800
Speaker 1: now is the best predictor of whether you're going to

1352
01:07:28,840 --> 01:07:31,360
Speaker 1: get married or not as a man. Pair that with

1353
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:33,640
Speaker 1: what I open this segment with. Are you beginning to

1354
01:07:33,680 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 1: see a problem. We have a society, particularly an elite

1355
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 1: sets the tone for the entire nation, and in places

1356
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:42,400
Speaker 1: in emphasis on college, men are dropping out of college

1357
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:44,880
Speaker 1: and are becoming more likely not even to try and

1358
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 1: go in the first place. This is going to widen

1359
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:49,200
Speaker 1: the income gap. The less money that you make, the

1360
01:07:49,320 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 1: less likely you are to attract a partner, and so

1361
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:56,040
Speaker 1: we go. All of this has massive cultural ramifications. Take

1362
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:58,760
Speaker 1: a look at China's mail imbalance and video game bands

1363
01:07:58,840 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 1: right now to see what happens when weird imbalances cause

1364
01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 1: really strange social pathologies. But I think that the one

1365
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:07,840
Speaker 1: thing that gives me hope is this, none of this

1366
01:08:07,920 --> 01:08:10,480
Speaker 1: is inevitable. It's not like China where they literally panned

1367
01:08:10,520 --> 01:08:13,600
Speaker 1: having more children. Instead, all of this seems to be

1368
01:08:13,720 --> 01:08:17,680
Speaker 1: the result of economic conditions, and in fact, within the

1369
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 1: Pew data, there is evidence that when male wages begin

1370
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:24,719
Speaker 1: to rise, partnership rises, which in turn spins the hamster

1371
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:26,880
Speaker 1: wheel of all the benefits that comes with that in

1372
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 1: the right direction. Now, I told you I wouldn't give

1373
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:31,439
Speaker 1: you any answers, but I can't resist just one pointing

1374
01:08:31,479 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 1: you in this direction. In twenty seventeen, David Otter Over

1375
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:37,680
Speaker 1: at Harvard University. He found that declining male wages as

1376
01:08:37,720 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 1: a result of departing manufacturing jobs led to increased unpartnered men,

1377
01:08:42,800 --> 01:08:45,760
Speaker 1: lower fertility rates, less rates of marriage, which in turn

1378
01:08:46,040 --> 01:08:48,839
Speaker 1: lead to worse health and income outcomes for almost everybody

1379
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:51,600
Speaker 1: in our society. So if you want to live in

1380
01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:55,799
Speaker 1: a healthy, prosperous, stable country for years to come, solving

1381
01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:58,559
Speaker 1: this problem seems to be one of the key things

1382
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:01,680
Speaker 1: that you can do. Key thing is maybe we can

1383
01:09:01,840 --> 01:09:04,599
Speaker 1: do something about it. Problems of the soul are up

1384
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 1: in the air, a problem of jobs. Well, at least

1385
01:09:07,120 --> 01:09:09,639
Speaker 1: we can try and figure it out together. So that's

1386
01:09:09,680 --> 01:09:13,719
Speaker 1: pretty interesting, isn't it, Marshall, that it's a causal direction

1387
01:09:13,880 --> 01:09:16,800
Speaker 1: in both. One more thing, I promise, just wanted to

1388
01:09:16,840 --> 01:09:19,520
Speaker 1: make sure you knew about my podcast with Kyle Kolinski.

1389
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:21,960
Speaker 1: It's called Crystal, Kyle and Friends, where we do long

1390
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: form interviews with people like Noam Chomsky, Cornell West, and

1391
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 1: Glenn Greenwald. You can listen on any podcast platform, or

1392
01:09:29,080 --> 01:09:31,479
Speaker 1: you can subscribe over on substack to get the video

1393
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:35,400
Speaker 1: a day early. We're going to stop bugging you now, enjoy, Marshall,

1394
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:37,160
Speaker 1: What do you taking a look at right now? Yeah?

1395
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:41,439
Speaker 1: So I am obsessed with the gallop pull numbers that

1396
01:09:41,520 --> 01:09:44,880
Speaker 1: everyone is focusing on. It shows that the trust in

1397
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:48,240
Speaker 1: media has declined to almost the second lowest level in

1398
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:53,919
Speaker 1: American history now as breaking points viewers, as hopefully realignment listeners,

1399
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 1: wink wink wink, you know where to go. I know

1400
01:09:56,520 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 1: that you'll here have heard us say, oh, like the

1401
01:09:58,920 --> 01:10:02,240
Speaker 1: mainstream media CNNN and this is and that, And I

1402
01:10:02,240 --> 01:10:04,519
Speaker 1: don't want to focus quite on that part, because the

1403
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 1: interesting thing in the data is if you actually look

1404
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 1: at this, it actually indicates that Republicans actually trust Fox News.

1405
01:10:11,560 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 1: So if a real take here is that people are

1406
01:10:13,320 --> 01:10:15,600
Speaker 1: kind of bad faith when they answer these questions, So

1407
01:10:15,680 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 1: what it basically just means is that trust in these

1408
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:21,800
Speaker 1: institutions that used to speak for everyone is lower than ever.

1409
01:10:21,840 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 1: And that's because there's a huge portion of the country's

1410
01:10:23,400 --> 01:10:27,839
Speaker 1: specially Republicans, moving these outlets are primarily democratic. That's the reality.

1411
01:10:28,080 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: It's interesting to take a look at American history and

1412
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 1: consider the fact that the whole period from the nineteen

1413
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:36,760
Speaker 1: forties up to basically two thousand, where media was seen

1414
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 1: as neutral and fair and you had Dan Rather and

1415
01:10:40,240 --> 01:10:41,840
Speaker 1: Walter Cronkite and all theys people to be able to

1416
01:10:41,840 --> 01:10:44,320
Speaker 1: speak to everyone, that's just totally over. So the question

1417
01:10:44,439 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 1: for us is, as we're moving into a society where

1418
01:10:47,240 --> 01:10:51,200
Speaker 1: in every single category, so not just media, but in governance,

1419
01:10:51,560 --> 01:10:54,679
Speaker 1: in institutions and higher education. SARS did a monologue speaking

1420
01:10:54,720 --> 01:10:57,320
Speaker 1: about college people do not trust the higher educations in

1421
01:10:57,320 --> 01:10:59,439
Speaker 1: still either people don't trust their local school board. That

1422
01:10:59,479 --> 01:11:02,200
Speaker 1: is why you see these high, perpolarized, really aggressive fights

1423
01:11:02,240 --> 01:11:04,360
Speaker 1: with everything from critical race theory to all these other

1424
01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:07,040
Speaker 1: broader issues. The point is, if you are thinking about

1425
01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:08,720
Speaker 1: society we live and how we're going to live in it.

1426
01:11:09,080 --> 01:11:10,639
Speaker 1: To call back to the segment we just did about

1427
01:11:10,640 --> 01:11:13,479
Speaker 1: Matthew McConaughey, you should be opening with the question of

1428
01:11:13,560 --> 01:11:17,519
Speaker 1: how can we restore trust in these institutions. Trust does

1429
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:21,360
Speaker 1: not equal consensus. Trust does not equal wow ninety nine

1430
01:11:21,400 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 1: point nine percent. Everyone's going to agree with whatever Saga

1431
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:26,040
Speaker 1: is saying, or whatever I am saying, whatever Kris Wishers saying,

1432
01:11:26,080 --> 01:11:28,800
Speaker 1: whatever Mathew McConaughey is saying. It means that we live

1433
01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 1: in a society where people say, hey, you know what,

1434
01:11:31,320 --> 01:11:33,400
Speaker 1: Martial I may disagree about how the US should handle

1435
01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:36,320
Speaker 1: the Taiwan crisis, or Marshall, I may disagree on mass mandates,

1436
01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:37,960
Speaker 1: or we may disagree about how we should think about

1437
01:11:37,960 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 1: a gifted and talented program, but he believes what he

1438
01:11:41,320 --> 01:11:44,240
Speaker 1: believes because he believes what he believes, not because he's corrupt,

1439
01:11:44,439 --> 01:11:46,800
Speaker 1: not because he's trying to harm me. Because in a democracy,

1440
01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 1: we have different views and our goal is to actually

1441
01:11:49,240 --> 01:11:51,800
Speaker 1: reconcile them. So what I would want people to really

1442
01:11:51,840 --> 01:11:54,040
Speaker 1: push is to say, don't just look at these trust

1443
01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 1: numbers in the context of media, but think about them

1444
01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:59,479
Speaker 1: in every single aspect of your lives. Think about the

1445
01:11:59,560 --> 01:12:02,120
Speaker 1: question of, hey, how can I convince people that the

1446
01:12:02,160 --> 01:12:04,640
Speaker 1: higher education system, which will always be with us to

1447
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 1: some degree, exists to actually help people. How do I

1448
01:12:08,280 --> 01:12:10,800
Speaker 1: restore trust in my local school board? How do I

1449
01:12:10,880 --> 01:12:14,080
Speaker 1: restore trust in a politician who has to actually govern?

1450
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:16,360
Speaker 1: Because the number one thing that needs to be said

1451
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:20,400
Speaker 1: to people who push the anti corruption that who push

1452
01:12:20,479 --> 01:12:23,559
Speaker 1: against these institutions they are not doing. The second fact

1453
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:26,360
Speaker 1: is completely all right and completely warranted to say, hey,

1454
01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:29,120
Speaker 1: I think the current two party system is corrupt. I

1455
01:12:29,240 --> 01:12:31,719
Speaker 1: think that politicians who are in office are not doing

1456
01:12:31,840 --> 01:12:35,000
Speaker 1: what's best for everyone, this and that. But if all

1457
01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 1: you do is tear down the status quo and don't

1458
01:12:37,520 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 1: actually address the trust question, you were just creating more problems.

1459
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:44,000
Speaker 1: Because whenever you win power you'll be hurt by the

1460
01:12:44,120 --> 01:12:46,160
Speaker 1: same lack of trust issue. The joke I'm made with

1461
01:12:46,200 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 1: Sager during andrew Yang episode about the forward party is

1462
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:51,800
Speaker 1: the problem that Andrew is going to run into if

1463
01:12:51,840 --> 01:12:54,519
Speaker 1: he gets what he wants is under the current status

1464
01:12:54,600 --> 01:12:57,920
Speaker 1: quo or everyone doesn't trust basically everything. The second that

1465
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:01,200
Speaker 1: the third party comes about, people would instantly start losing

1466
01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:04,560
Speaker 1: trust in that institution because something did not go their way. So,

1467
01:13:04,680 --> 01:13:06,719
Speaker 1: if you're a person who is concerned or a corruption,

1468
01:13:06,920 --> 01:13:08,720
Speaker 1: if you're a person who sees these trends thinks to

1469
01:13:08,840 --> 01:13:10,800
Speaker 1: go in the wrong direction, the question you have to

1470
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:13,439
Speaker 1: answer for yourself is what are we going to do

1471
01:13:13,920 --> 01:13:17,559
Speaker 1: to actually long term answer that question of a story

1472
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,120
Speaker 1: and trust And what really frustrates me, I think frustrates

1473
01:13:20,160 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 1: you as there are very few actors in our public

1474
01:13:22,240 --> 01:13:26,679
Speaker 1: system private public. Joining us now is Jacob Helberg. He's

1475
01:13:26,680 --> 01:13:29,479
Speaker 1: the author of The Wires of War, Technology and the

1476
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:32,920
Speaker 1: Global Struggle for Power, excellent book. We previously had a

1477
01:13:33,000 --> 01:13:34,800
Speaker 1: great conversation. I wanted to make sure that you could

1478
01:13:34,800 --> 01:13:37,639
Speaker 1: come over here to breaking Points and discuss the spook

1479
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:40,400
Speaker 1: is all about a struggle for war and technology, and

1480
01:13:40,520 --> 01:13:43,439
Speaker 1: specifically about the US and China, Jacob, give us a

1481
01:13:43,479 --> 01:13:46,040
Speaker 1: little bit of a preview of this in the context

1482
01:13:46,200 --> 01:13:48,439
Speaker 1: of all of the craziness that we're seeing right now

1483
01:13:48,560 --> 01:13:52,559
Speaker 1: with Taiwan. So, as I write in the book, war

1484
01:13:52,680 --> 01:13:55,920
Speaker 1: has always been a spectrum, and you're not either in

1485
01:13:56,000 --> 01:13:58,240
Speaker 1: a total state of war and a total state of peace.

1486
01:13:58,439 --> 01:14:00,080
Speaker 1: And one of the things that technology has done the

1487
01:14:00,160 --> 01:14:04,679
Speaker 1: last few years is it's allowed state actors to wage

1488
01:14:04,720 --> 01:14:07,560
Speaker 1: war in the gray zone, which is a concept that

1489
01:14:07,640 --> 01:14:12,760
Speaker 1: military experts refer to to talk about attacks that don't

1490
01:14:12,840 --> 01:14:16,679
Speaker 1: quite rise the conventional threshold of war. That has become

1491
01:14:16,760 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 1: a pervasive aspect of international politics because technology now infuses

1492
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:24,800
Speaker 1: every aspect of our lives. And with Taiwan, you have

1493
01:14:24,920 --> 01:14:29,760
Speaker 1: a situation that has been at the epicenter of grey

1494
01:14:29,880 --> 01:14:33,440
Speaker 1: zone conflict and what I call the gray war, and unfortunately,

1495
01:14:33,880 --> 01:14:36,120
Speaker 1: we're now reaching a point where it could potentially turned

1496
01:14:36,160 --> 01:14:39,640
Speaker 1: into a hot war. So the immediate thing that we

1497
01:14:40,080 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 1: got from listeners as they were looking at the news

1498
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:47,400
Speaker 1: about Shi Jingping saying that the Taiwan and China mainland

1499
01:14:47,479 --> 01:14:50,840
Speaker 1: China where we re unifies, people are desperately afraid. Right now,

1500
01:14:51,080 --> 01:14:53,400
Speaker 1: what's just the temperature check when you're looking at the

1501
01:14:53,439 --> 01:14:56,519
Speaker 1: situation in Taiwan and how it relates to what you're

1502
01:14:56,520 --> 01:15:01,880
Speaker 1: writing about. It's probably the most hire in our lifetimes.

1503
01:15:02,800 --> 01:15:05,240
Speaker 1: I don't think we've ever had a situation where we

1504
01:15:05,880 --> 01:15:10,599
Speaker 1: realistically face the scenario of an actual hot war between

1505
01:15:10,720 --> 01:15:15,000
Speaker 1: major powers UH that are nuclear powers. Nonetheless, UH. I

1506
01:15:15,200 --> 01:15:16,560
Speaker 1: was born on the day of the fall of the

1507
01:15:16,640 --> 01:15:19,240
Speaker 1: Soviet Union, so I've I've never known that in my lifetime.

1508
01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:23,719
Speaker 1: The you know, the reason that we care about China,

1509
01:15:23,800 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 1: about Taiwan UH, and that it is actually a core

1510
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:30,559
Speaker 1: interest in the United States is for four main reasons

1511
01:15:30,760 --> 01:15:35,880
Speaker 1: for computer chips, maritime trade routes UH, submarine cables, and

1512
01:15:36,040 --> 01:15:39,759
Speaker 1: precedent UH. The South China Sea is a major corridor

1513
01:15:40,040 --> 01:15:44,800
Speaker 1: for information infrastructure submarine cables, which carries the bulk of

1514
01:15:44,920 --> 01:15:49,040
Speaker 1: information UH that connects North America and the Indo Pacific.

1515
01:15:49,640 --> 01:15:52,360
Speaker 1: Allowing China to take control of that it would be

1516
01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:56,679
Speaker 1: a huge setback to American national security, to intellectual property,

1517
01:15:56,760 --> 01:16:00,519
Speaker 1: to the sovereignty of a lot of countries and region

1518
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:04,479
Speaker 1: for reasons that I detail in the book. Obviously, an

1519
01:16:04,680 --> 01:16:08,160
Speaker 1: enormous amount of supply of computer chips get made in

1520
01:16:09,080 --> 01:16:13,120
Speaker 1: fabs that are in Taiwan by TSMC and as I

1521
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:16,720
Speaker 1: explained the book, allowing China to control that would jeopardize

1522
01:16:16,800 --> 01:16:19,880
Speaker 1: our access to chips and also the integrity of the

1523
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:24,439
Speaker 1: chips themselves. Meretime trade route is another major issue, and

1524
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:29,040
Speaker 1: the last is precedent. And this has been a very

1525
01:16:29,120 --> 01:16:32,080
Speaker 1: thorny topic in the foreign policy community. But setting the

1526
01:16:32,160 --> 01:16:36,760
Speaker 1: precedent of allowing China to annex a democratic country like

1527
01:16:36,840 --> 01:16:40,960
Speaker 1: Taiwan is a really really bad precedent to set. That

1528
01:16:41,240 --> 01:16:44,439
Speaker 1: is basically giving Russia the green light to invade Ukraine.

1529
01:16:45,000 --> 01:16:48,679
Speaker 1: It's letting China know that it can basically move forward

1530
01:16:48,760 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 1: and annex other parts of its disputed territories like the

1531
01:16:52,360 --> 01:16:57,439
Speaker 1: Sankaku Islands. China has disputed territories with seventeen countries, so

1532
01:16:57,800 --> 01:17:00,840
Speaker 1: there is a lot at play, and I think it's

1533
01:17:02,080 --> 01:17:03,640
Speaker 1: it would be in the interest of everyone in the

1534
01:17:03,720 --> 01:17:07,439
Speaker 1: region to make sure that that that precedent isn't set. Yeah,

1535
01:17:07,520 --> 01:17:10,080
Speaker 1: you know, Jacob, I can already hear the comment section.

1536
01:17:10,200 --> 01:17:12,519
Speaker 1: People are saying, oh, you know, the military industrial complex

1537
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:15,320
Speaker 1: wants war with China. This is something that you know,

1538
01:17:15,360 --> 01:17:17,880
Speaker 1: you're an arm of that. You're just pushing that all

1539
01:17:17,960 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 1: of that. Why should people care if you're a normal person.

1540
01:17:20,640 --> 01:17:22,479
Speaker 1: Let's take the money out of it. Why should people

1541
01:17:22,479 --> 01:17:24,800
Speaker 1: care about any of this. I'm so happy you bring

1542
01:17:24,880 --> 01:17:27,280
Speaker 1: that up, because let's remember that we got to this

1543
01:17:27,400 --> 01:17:30,280
Speaker 1: place because we have had a policy of engagement towards China,

1544
01:17:30,320 --> 01:17:33,400
Speaker 1: and we've operated on the assumption that engaging with them

1545
01:17:33,640 --> 01:17:35,719
Speaker 1: and you know, giving them the benefit of the doubt

1546
01:17:36,240 --> 01:17:39,240
Speaker 1: and giving them a pass every time they haven't lived

1547
01:17:39,320 --> 01:17:42,400
Speaker 1: up to their international commitments would actually buy us goodwill

1548
01:17:42,560 --> 01:17:45,640
Speaker 1: and would buy us good behavior. And it hasn't. And

1549
01:17:45,960 --> 01:17:49,920
Speaker 1: you know, the old saying that you're not. We are

1550
01:17:50,040 --> 01:17:56,040
Speaker 1: confronted with in China with a pattern of behavior that

1551
01:17:56,200 --> 01:17:58,880
Speaker 1: is completely at variance with our own. This is an

1552
01:17:58,920 --> 01:18:03,880
Speaker 1: autocratic regime that is that operates and that operates very

1553
01:18:04,000 --> 01:18:07,559
Speaker 1: very differently from democratic systems that we're used to at home.

1554
01:18:08,040 --> 01:18:10,439
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, what you're seeing is

1555
01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:14,240
Speaker 1: the behavior habits of shijngping at home are being mirrored abroad.

1556
01:18:14,920 --> 01:18:20,240
Speaker 1: And deterrence works, and it's worked throughout history, and as

1557
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:23,920
Speaker 1: Michelle Florinoy pointed out, it is the erosion of American

1558
01:18:24,000 --> 01:18:27,240
Speaker 1: deterrence in the Asia Pacific that is actually inviting the

1559
01:18:27,360 --> 01:18:30,000
Speaker 1: kind of aggressive behavior that could actually culminate in a war,

1560
01:18:30,200 --> 01:18:32,880
Speaker 1: not the other way around. I'm really glad you hit

1561
01:18:32,960 --> 01:18:36,439
Speaker 1: that because people should learn lessons from history. And obviously

1562
01:18:36,600 --> 01:18:39,120
Speaker 1: the cliche is that you know, it doesn't repeat, but

1563
01:18:39,240 --> 01:18:41,600
Speaker 1: it rhymes. But when we're looking at the rhetoric that

1564
01:18:41,640 --> 01:18:43,760
Speaker 1: people are engaging, and people will have to say things like, well,

1565
01:18:44,160 --> 01:18:48,080
Speaker 1: you know, actually placing backing for Taiwan will actually increase

1566
01:18:48,120 --> 01:18:49,880
Speaker 1: the chances of war. But if you look at the

1567
01:18:49,960 --> 01:18:53,880
Speaker 1: nineteen thirties, it was the lack of commitment to democratic countries.

1568
01:18:53,920 --> 01:18:56,200
Speaker 1: It was actually a lack of commitment to the idea

1569
01:18:56,240 --> 01:18:59,080
Speaker 1: that we would defend territory integrity that actually increase the

1570
01:18:59,160 --> 01:19:01,519
Speaker 1: chances of war. Once again, situations are going to differ,

1571
01:19:01,640 --> 01:19:03,640
Speaker 1: but it's important to look at how these things are

1572
01:19:03,720 --> 01:19:07,200
Speaker 1: not just as simple as pro peace, anti anti war.

1573
01:19:07,280 --> 01:19:10,720
Speaker 1: But the question I'd ask for you is what drives

1574
01:19:11,520 --> 01:19:14,080
Speaker 1: Chi Jinping to take the approach that he's taking, Because

1575
01:19:14,360 --> 01:19:17,640
Speaker 1: what I don't quite understand is if you want to

1576
01:19:17,840 --> 01:19:21,760
Speaker 1: reunify from their perspective, China, you want to have Hong Kong,

1577
01:19:21,800 --> 01:19:23,600
Speaker 1: you want to have Taiwan. By twenty forty nine, the

1578
01:19:23,680 --> 01:19:27,360
Speaker 1: one hundredth anniversary of the CCB's takeover the country. Why

1579
01:19:27,360 --> 01:19:29,120
Speaker 1: don't you just prove that China is a good model

1580
01:19:29,160 --> 01:19:31,920
Speaker 1: and the Taiwanese people want to actually join rather than

1581
01:19:31,960 --> 01:19:36,360
Speaker 1: just trying to take things by force. Well, Chi Jinping

1582
01:19:36,479 --> 01:19:40,519
Speaker 1: is sixty eight years old, so the window in his

1583
01:19:40,720 --> 01:19:44,599
Speaker 1: personal life to make this part of his legacy is finite.

1584
01:19:44,640 --> 01:19:48,799
Speaker 1: He doesn't have forever. He also sees that window narrowing

1585
01:19:49,000 --> 01:19:53,759
Speaker 1: for strategic reasons in the region. American allies in the region,

1586
01:19:54,080 --> 01:19:58,120
Speaker 1: like Japan, Australia, just the name a few are actually

1587
01:19:58,360 --> 01:20:03,200
Speaker 1: starting to coalesce on on a counter China agenda. They

1588
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:05,200
Speaker 1: would never call it that, of course, but that's basically

1589
01:20:05,240 --> 01:20:08,000
Speaker 1: what it is. A lot of countries are growing very,

1590
01:20:08,120 --> 01:20:10,840
Speaker 1: very skeptical and concerned about Chinese behavior in the region,

1591
01:20:10,880 --> 01:20:14,439
Speaker 1: and they're starting to come on board on America's agenda

1592
01:20:14,600 --> 01:20:17,960
Speaker 1: to address that behavior in the region. So Shijingping is

1593
01:20:18,000 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 1: looking at a situation where ten or fifteen years from now,

1594
01:20:20,200 --> 01:20:23,680
Speaker 1: he could actually find himself in a region that has

1595
01:20:23,720 --> 01:20:26,840
Speaker 1: a much more unified front visa EA China than it

1596
01:20:27,000 --> 01:20:30,400
Speaker 1: is currently. And he's also looking at a situation where

1597
01:20:31,200 --> 01:20:33,600
Speaker 1: the current Vice president of Taiwan, who could potentially be

1598
01:20:33,680 --> 01:20:38,320
Speaker 1: the next president, the next president of Taiwan is actually

1599
01:20:38,600 --> 01:20:43,040
Speaker 1: has outwardly supported independence, and so that is something that

1600
01:20:43,160 --> 01:20:47,000
Speaker 1: is really scary for China because it's potentially a signal

1601
01:20:47,080 --> 01:20:51,200
Speaker 1: that Taiwanese politics are trending in a more pro independence direction.

1602
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:53,920
Speaker 1: You see. And this is where I think it all

1603
01:20:54,000 --> 01:20:56,320
Speaker 1: becomes very important, which is that you know, as we

1604
01:20:56,720 --> 01:20:58,960
Speaker 1: we see I just saw this morning across the wire,

1605
01:20:59,040 --> 01:21:02,040
Speaker 1: the Chinese are practicing beach landing drills in the province

1606
01:21:02,120 --> 01:21:06,080
Speaker 1: across from Taiwan. They've penetrated some not necessarily the airspace

1607
01:21:06,120 --> 01:21:09,120
Speaker 1: with the air defense zone, which obviously is always in

1608
01:21:09,200 --> 01:21:12,280
Speaker 1: dispute whenever countries say stuff like that. All of this

1609
01:21:12,439 --> 01:21:16,799
Speaker 1: points to what could be an unstable China that sees

1610
01:21:17,000 --> 01:21:19,080
Speaker 1: what happened in the world blames them for COVID, as

1611
01:21:19,200 --> 01:21:22,120
Speaker 1: they should, and they see this as a reason in

1612
01:21:22,280 --> 01:21:25,559
Speaker 1: order to move forward. So, Jacob, nobody wants war with Taiwan.

1613
01:21:25,760 --> 01:21:28,400
Speaker 1: It would be a disaster. And regardless whether it even

1614
01:21:28,479 --> 01:21:30,760
Speaker 1: comes to that or not, what can we do right

1615
01:21:30,840 --> 01:21:33,840
Speaker 1: now in the year twenty twenty one to avoid what

1616
01:21:33,960 --> 01:21:37,160
Speaker 1: would be a catastrophic outcome for the US, for Taiwan,

1617
01:21:37,320 --> 01:21:42,040
Speaker 1: and for China. So Xiji Ping has made his intention

1618
01:21:42,280 --> 01:21:45,280
Speaker 1: of unification very very clear. So then the question is

1619
01:21:45,640 --> 01:21:47,559
Speaker 1: what do we do about it? Do we want Taiwan

1620
01:21:47,680 --> 01:21:50,680
Speaker 1: to The two scenarios that we have to avoid a

1621
01:21:50,760 --> 01:21:54,120
Speaker 1: war is scenario number one, we just let him take

1622
01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:57,400
Speaker 1: the island, or scenario number two, we prevent him from

1623
01:21:57,479 --> 01:21:59,479
Speaker 1: taking the island in the first place, we prevent him

1624
01:21:59,520 --> 01:22:03,679
Speaker 1: from trying to to carry out an attempt to invade

1625
01:22:03,680 --> 01:22:06,240
Speaker 1: the island in the first place. Uh, if you want

1626
01:22:06,320 --> 01:22:10,679
Speaker 1: to pursue the latter, the question is really boils down

1627
01:22:10,760 --> 01:22:14,799
Speaker 1: to how do you configure the map of the region

1628
01:22:15,280 --> 01:22:19,320
Speaker 1: in a way where his calculation changes? And I think

1629
01:22:19,360 --> 01:22:21,680
Speaker 1: the presence of you know that a lot of this

1630
01:22:21,800 --> 01:22:23,960
Speaker 1: boils down to who's going to blink first. We dread

1631
01:22:24,000 --> 01:22:26,519
Speaker 1: the idea of which waging war on China, but China

1632
01:22:26,640 --> 01:22:29,160
Speaker 1: dreads the idea of waging war on the US. So

1633
01:22:29,720 --> 01:22:31,920
Speaker 1: the question is who's going to wage war on who?

1634
01:22:32,439 --> 01:22:34,880
Speaker 1: And if you have US troops that are already on

1635
01:22:34,960 --> 01:22:38,000
Speaker 1: the island, the balls in China's camps. If if we

1636
01:22:38,280 --> 01:22:40,920
Speaker 1: have no presence there, the ball is in our camp

1637
01:22:40,960 --> 01:22:42,800
Speaker 1: because China's gonna invade, and then we're gonna have to

1638
01:22:42,840 --> 01:22:44,439
Speaker 1: decide whether or not we're going to send people there.

1639
01:22:45,000 --> 01:22:49,680
Speaker 1: The the recent reports that that we actually do have

1640
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:53,680
Speaker 1: a small presence that has been secretly helping train the

1641
01:22:54,080 --> 01:22:57,719
Speaker 1: Taiwanese forces is actually kind of good news because you're seeing,

1642
01:22:58,840 --> 01:23:01,360
Speaker 1: you know, an interesting reaction by Beijing where it's basically

1643
01:23:01,560 --> 01:23:04,160
Speaker 1: urging the US to withdraw because it knows that if

1644
01:23:04,200 --> 01:23:07,479
Speaker 1: the US is already there, the decision to invade becomes

1645
01:23:07,600 --> 01:23:11,520
Speaker 1: much much more complicated. I wrote a piece about decentralizing

1646
01:23:11,560 --> 01:23:16,080
Speaker 1: deterrence that's basically about how one of the best most

1647
01:23:16,120 --> 01:23:21,560
Speaker 1: effective ways to restore deterrence is by substantially bolstering the

1648
01:23:22,320 --> 01:23:26,160
Speaker 1: armament and defense apparatus of our allies so that we

1649
01:23:26,280 --> 01:23:29,120
Speaker 1: don't necessarily so that the weight and the burden of

1650
01:23:29,200 --> 01:23:32,920
Speaker 1: defense doesn't entirely all rest on our shoulders. And that

1651
01:23:33,120 --> 01:23:35,439
Speaker 1: was the model that we carried out during World War Two.

1652
01:23:35,439 --> 01:23:37,560
Speaker 1: I mean, we were the arsenal of democracy, but you know,

1653
01:23:37,640 --> 01:23:40,120
Speaker 1: through then Least Program and through a lot of other programs,

1654
01:23:40,439 --> 01:23:43,240
Speaker 1: we actually armed our allies. It was a very effective model,

1655
01:23:43,280 --> 01:23:45,639
Speaker 1: and I think that there's something to be said about

1656
01:23:46,680 --> 01:23:49,920
Speaker 1: carrying out a modern day approach version of that. Yeah,

1657
01:23:50,080 --> 01:23:52,559
Speaker 1: I think that's really well, said Jacob. We really appreciate

1658
01:23:52,560 --> 01:23:54,519
Speaker 1: you joining us. Thank you. I think the book is

1659
01:23:54,560 --> 01:23:56,200
Speaker 1: excellent and people should buy it. We'll have a link

1660
01:23:56,240 --> 01:23:58,360
Speaker 1: down there in the description. Go ahead, Marpha and we

1661
01:23:58,520 --> 01:24:01,800
Speaker 1: have a excellent, excellent, excellent podcast or Jacob coming out

1662
01:24:01,840 --> 01:24:03,880
Speaker 1: tomorrow day, have the book launch. Would be sure to

1663
01:24:04,280 --> 01:24:07,000
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Realignment and check that out as well too.

1664
01:24:07,040 --> 01:24:09,559
Speaker 1: It's really great we get into all these broader issues,

1665
01:24:09,560 --> 01:24:11,240
Speaker 1: a lot of good stuff there. That's right, thanks Jacob,

1666
01:24:11,240 --> 01:24:15,000
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me absolutely. Okay, guys,

1667
01:24:15,000 --> 01:24:16,800
Speaker 1: thank you on us so much for watching, Marshall, thanks

1668
01:24:16,840 --> 01:24:18,880
Speaker 1: for sitting in. You just plugged the re Alignment. But

1669
01:24:18,960 --> 01:24:20,479
Speaker 1: you can go ahead and do it again where and

1670
01:24:20,560 --> 01:24:22,960
Speaker 1: people check it out? Yeah, so people can find us

1671
01:24:23,040 --> 01:24:25,720
Speaker 1: on YouTube. We're actually really crossing fifty, so thank you

1672
01:24:26,080 --> 01:24:28,559
Speaker 1: to everyone for supporting there. Love getting into the comments

1673
01:24:28,600 --> 01:24:30,799
Speaker 1: of everyone, and you could also subscribe. We're on Spotify,

1674
01:24:30,840 --> 01:24:34,120
Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, ever where you find your downloads. There you go,

1675
01:24:34,320 --> 01:24:37,639
Speaker 1: and I appreciate everybody watching. We really do, both Crystal

1676
01:24:37,680 --> 01:24:40,000
Speaker 1: and I. Its means the world. The only way really

1677
01:24:40,040 --> 01:24:41,800
Speaker 1: that we can keep the lights on here given what

1678
01:24:41,840 --> 01:24:44,640
Speaker 1: we're dealing with with YouTube and demonetization is if you

1679
01:24:44,680 --> 01:24:47,200
Speaker 1: guys can help us by becoming a premium subscriber today.

1680
01:24:47,439 --> 01:24:49,599
Speaker 1: The link is down there in the description. We deeply

1681
01:24:49,640 --> 01:24:51,960
Speaker 1: appreciate all of the support. It makes it so that

1682
01:24:52,080 --> 01:24:53,519
Speaker 1: we don't have to care if we have to play

1683
01:24:53,560 --> 01:24:55,479
Speaker 1: a copyright a clip, or if we want to cover

1684
01:24:55,800 --> 01:24:58,680
Speaker 1: a certain story, even though that we know it's not

1685
01:24:58,760 --> 01:25:00,960
Speaker 1: going to work. It's the one way we can ensure

1686
01:25:01,000 --> 01:25:03,800
Speaker 1: our absolute independence. So thank you all very much. Chris

1687
01:25:03,840 --> 01:25:05,880
Speaker 1: will be back here in the studio tomorrow and we

1688
01:25:05,880 --> 01:25:22,519
Speaker 1: will see you all then. Thanks for listening to the show, guys,

1689
01:25:22,560 --> 01:25:25,080
Speaker 1: we really appreciate it. To help other people find the show,

1690
01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:27,080
Speaker 1: go ahead and leave us a five star rating on

1691
01:25:27,160 --> 01:25:30,639
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Really helps

1692
01:25:30,720 --> 01:25:33,920
Speaker 1: other people find the show. As always special thank you

1693
01:25:34,040 --> 01:25:37,599
Speaker 1: to Supercast for powering our premium membership. If you want

1694
01:25:37,640 --> 01:25:40,439
Speaker 1: to find out more, go to Crystalansager dot com.