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Speaker 2: The swing we did see to some degree among black
Speaker 2: men for Donald Trump, but most specifically a big swing
Speaker 2: in the Latino population of this country.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a big reason we can, i think, say
Speaker 3: with credibility why Donald Trump won. The fact of the
Speaker 3: matter is, you're right. Black men in the end did
Speaker 3: break largely for Kamala Harris, but she had lower shares
Speaker 3: of each constituency than Joe Biden did in twenty twenty,
Speaker 3: and when you put it together, that was enough.
Speaker 4: To be a problem.
Speaker 2: Indeed, Well, we want to focus more on what's happening
Speaker 2: with the Latino vote and overall what the future of
Speaker 2: this administration and potentially the House could look like, and
Speaker 2: turn to Republican Congressman Carlos Jimenez. He represents Florida's twenty
Speaker 2: eighth district, which includes part of Miami Dade County, and
Speaker 2: he used to be the mayor of that county. Congressman,
Speaker 2: thank you for being here on balance of power. First
Speaker 2: of all, congratulations on your reelection. If we could just
Speaker 2: focus on Miami Dave. Donald Trump just became the first
Speaker 2: president to win that county, which has a population that
Speaker 2: is overwhelmingly Hispanic. Some seventy percent of the population is Hispanic.
Speaker 2: He won it the first time any Republican has done
Speaker 2: so since nineteen eighty eight. What does that capture to you?
Speaker 2: And do you think that is a permanent switch or
Speaker 2: just a moment in time.
Speaker 4: I think it's a permanent switch.
Speaker 5: I think Hispanics here are moving more and more to
Speaker 5: the right, wive because the Republican Party represents the values
Speaker 5: of Hispanics, where people of faith, were people of family,
Speaker 5: hard work. We believe in the American dream. We don't
Speaker 5: believe in in oppressive government or government or government regulations.
Speaker 4: Those are the things that we believe in.
Speaker 5: And so that's where the Republican Party is, you know
Speaker 5: right now. And frankly, the Democrat Party has left left
Speaker 5: many Hispanics in their wake as they've gone more left
Speaker 5: and left and left. Also remember that many Hispanics here
Speaker 5: in Miami Dade County in particular, have fled socialism. We've
Speaker 5: fled pictorial regimes that such as Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua.
Speaker 5: And when we see the Democrat Party kind of embracing
Speaker 5: those regimes and also embracing some of their ideology, that's
Speaker 5: what caused the Democrat Party really to lose so many
Speaker 5: followers here in Miami Dade County. We've also seen the
Speaker 5: Independence swinging to the right too, and it's this trend
Speaker 5: has been going on for the last eight years.
Speaker 4: So walk back with us.
Speaker 3: Two weeks Congressman was the whole uproar over the bad
Speaker 3: jokes told at Madison Square Garden referring to Puerto Rico
Speaker 3: as a floating island of garbage.
Speaker 4: You know what came from that?
Speaker 3: We spent an entire week of talking about garbage on
Speaker 3: both sides of the isle.
Speaker 4: Was that a media narrative?
Speaker 3: What about the corrosive effect that we all heard this
Speaker 3: would have on the Republican ticket?
Speaker 4: Look, hispanics, We're not dumb.
Speaker 5: That was a bad joke by an idiot comedian in
Speaker 5: Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 4: But that's all it was, all right?
Speaker 5: You know, President Trump certainly doesn't believe that What was
Speaker 5: far worse was when Joe Biden, the President of the
Speaker 5: United States, called everybody who supported Trump garbage that came
Speaker 5: right out of his mouth. That's far worse than once
Speaker 5: some idiot comedian said in Madison Square.
Speaker 4: You didn't believe that we have on that.
Speaker 3: When Joe Biden tried to rephrase that, know, I.
Speaker 4: Think he meant it. I heard what I heard, and
Speaker 4: so and so.
Speaker 5: Did you know over one hundred million people they heard
Speaker 5: what they heard too. And so the fact that he
Speaker 5: was trying to clean it up, and then he had
Speaker 5: some people trying to help him clean it up, that's
Speaker 5: also an insult to us.
Speaker 4: Okay, we're not dumb.
Speaker 5: We understand what he said, we understand why he said it,
Speaker 5: and so that was an insult to now the majority
Speaker 5: of the American people, obviously because Donald Trump not only
Speaker 5: won the electoral College, he also won the popular vote.
Speaker 5: And so obviously we didn't believe that retraction as we
Speaker 5: didn't pay much attention to some you know, comics comments
Speaker 5: about Puerto Rico.
Speaker 4: There.
Speaker 5: It wasn't it wasn't funny, and certainly, you know, it
Speaker 5: did not reflect our ideals. You know, Puerto Rico, they're
Speaker 5: great patriots in Puerto Rico. I have a number of
Speaker 5: friends that are from Puerto Rico. I love Puerto Rico,
Speaker 5: and so that was just a stupid thing to say
Speaker 5: by an idiot.
Speaker 2: So that's what was heard by you and others last week.
Speaker 2: I'm interested as well, Congressman, and what you heard this
Speaker 2: morning the Speaker Mike Johnson, of course, had a call
Speaker 2: with members, and I'm wondering what projections you are getting
Speaker 2: from what is currently the majority leadership as to whether
Speaker 2: or not it is the expectation that you will stay
Speaker 2: a member of the majority.
Speaker 5: Yeah, we are the leader, and also all the leadership
Speaker 5: there expects that we will attain at least two hundred
Speaker 5: and eighteen and that we'll go beyond that. And so
Speaker 5: they're pretty confident in that number. And so you know what,
Speaker 5: I've seen nothing that they said, you know, gave me
Speaker 5: rise for concern at this point. I certainly would love
Speaker 5: to have a bigger majority. First of all, it's the majority,
Speaker 5: because the majority in the House is everything, even if
Speaker 5: it's one seat majority, it's everything, and we need to
Speaker 5: have the majority. But they're confident that we're going to
Speaker 5: attain it, and so I will I have confidence in
Speaker 5: my leadership, and I believe the leave. I believe that
Speaker 5: we will be the majority party in the House.
Speaker 3: Well before we get to the next session. Let's finish
Speaker 3: this one, Congressman, what's this lame duck session going to
Speaker 3: look like? There were questions about, for instance, an emergency
Speaker 3: supplemental for natural disasters the hurricanes that we saw. How
Speaker 3: about the farm bill? What can you get done before
Speaker 3: the end of the year.
Speaker 4: Hopefully we can get done a lot. I'd love to
Speaker 4: get the Farm bill through.
Speaker 5: Look, we're gonna have to obviously talk to the President
Speaker 5: electa and what and what the administration wants us to do.
Speaker 5: But we need to pass a continuing resolution to keep
Speaker 5: the government open.
Speaker 4: I am, I am. I have high confidence who we
Speaker 4: will be doing. That question is how long?
Speaker 5: I'd say probably into the March April timeframe. That way,
Speaker 5: it gives us enough time, if we're in the majority,
Speaker 5: to put together the packages that we need to send
Speaker 5: on to the White House to start turning this country
Speaker 5: around and start implementing the.
Speaker 4: Policies of Donald J. Trump.
Speaker 5: And so you know, we're going to be working arm
Speaker 5: in arm, hand in hand with the Senate now that
Speaker 5: we control also the Senate. Look, we now, if we
Speaker 5: control the House, the Senate, and the White House, we
Speaker 5: have no more excuses. We need to get to work.
Speaker 5: We need to deliver for the American people. We need
Speaker 5: to give them. We need to give them a break
Speaker 5: on high prices. We need to restore our energy independence
Speaker 5: and energy dominance.
Speaker 4: We need to.
Speaker 5: Restore our place in the world, and so all those
Speaker 5: things we need to do and do it quickly. And
Speaker 5: we have to tackle the long term problem of our debt.
Speaker 5: The national debt is running out of control, and our
Speaker 5: interest payments are higher than our payments for our expenditures
Speaker 5: on national defense.
Speaker 4: We need to get that under control.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm so glad you brought that up, Congressman, because
Speaker 2: as you discussed delivering for the American people, I do
Speaker 2: wonder what the debt and deficit in mind. If you
Speaker 2: think it's realistic to deliver on all of the promises
Speaker 2: that President elect Trump has made when it comes to
Speaker 2: taxes and all of the tax breaks he would like
Speaker 2: to offer, it is likely to be deficit additive. And
Speaker 2: I wonder if you think that actually may make it
Speaker 2: more difficult to work it straight through even a Republican
Speaker 2: House of Representatives.
Speaker 5: Oh, we need to look at the revenue side of
Speaker 5: the House too. It's not just the deficit side of
Speaker 5: the house. I've always said that there's two sides to this.
Speaker 5: There's spending cuts that we have to implement, but there's
Speaker 5: also revenue enhancements. One thing that the President has alluded
Speaker 5: to already is that we have natural resources underneath our feet.
Speaker 5: For some reason or another, this administration has really hampered
Speaker 5: our oil and gas exploration and utilization. We should not
Speaker 5: only just be energy independent, which apparently we're not right now.
Speaker 5: We should be an energy dominant. We should be using
Speaker 5: it to help our allies around the world and also
Speaker 5: to balance the the imbalance and trade that we have.
Speaker 5: And so, yeah, it's gonna be difficult to implement all
Speaker 5: these things, but we need to find the solutions. Look, though,
Speaker 5: one of the things that the President is really proud
Speaker 5: of is that when he makes a promise, he keeps it.
Speaker 5: And so I'm sure that he's gonna come to us
Speaker 5: and said, I made these promises, We're going to have
Speaker 5: to find a way to make sure that it doesn't
Speaker 5: increase the deficit. And I believe you know, here's what
Speaker 5: I think will happen because of these promises, We're going
Speaker 5: to have more growth, economic growth, and when you have
Speaker 5: economic growth, you also have additional revenue into the coffers,
Speaker 5: just like what happened during the Reagan era where we
Speaker 5: had more money coming in even though there was some
Speaker 5: tax cuts implemented by by the Reagan administration.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we had a long conversation with Joe Lavornia about
Speaker 3: that right around this time yesterday, Congressman, just about a
Speaker 3: minute left. What'll happen in the energy market under the
Speaker 3: Trump administration? Knowing that we're already at a record level
Speaker 3: of production, Now, how do you compel oil producers to
Speaker 3: pump more having seen them burn so many times in
Speaker 3: the past, and knowing their pension for returning cash to shareholders. Yeah, no, Look,
Speaker 3: we need to have a stable energy policy and not
Speaker 3: one that goes up and down and up and down
Speaker 3: depending on the administration. And that's something that we're going
Speaker 3: to have to do with legislation. The executive branch hamper's
Speaker 3: production or can increase production simply through the stroke of
Speaker 3: a pen executive action. We need to make sure that
Speaker 3: those that are investing in energy production are sured a
Speaker 3: the long term investment is going.
Speaker 4: To pay off.
Speaker 5: What we need to do is actually start to supplant
Speaker 5: Russian oil and adversarial oil with American oil, you know,
Speaker 5: the Iranian sh you know, we should be able to
Speaker 5: put sanctions on Iranian oil, Venezuelan oil, because those are
Speaker 5: our enemies and we need to start sanctioning them so
Speaker 5: that we deny them the funds that they need in
Speaker 5: order to wreak havoc around the world. That's one of
Speaker 5: the things I would love to see the United States do.
Speaker 3: Great to have you with us this week, Congressman, let's
Speaker 3: meet up when we're back in Washington. Congressman Carlos Himenez
Speaker 3: of Florida, the Republican with us on Ballots of Power.
Speaker 4: I'll I'm much more ahead.
Speaker 3: On Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: It, of course, is two days after the election in
Speaker 2: the US, in which Donald Trump will become the forty
Speaker 2: seventh president of the United States, something that was acknowledged
Speaker 2: today in a Rose Garden speech by President Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: who shared that he had called Trump to congratulate him
Speaker 2: on his victory and has pledged to oversee a peaceful
Speaker 2: transition of power. It was similar in language to what
Speaker 2: we heard from the loser in this presidential election, Vice
Speaker 2: President Kamala Harris, who delivered her concession speech at Howard
Speaker 2: University yesterday.
Speaker 6: The come of this election is not what we wanted,
Speaker 6: not what we fought for, not what we voted for.
Speaker 6: While I conceide this election, I do not concede the
Speaker 6: fight that fueled this campaign. I spoke with President elect
Speaker 6: Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I also told.
Speaker 7: Him that we will.
Speaker 6: Help him and his team with their transition and that
Speaker 6: we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.
Speaker 3: Now that we've heard from both Harris and Biden, we
Speaker 3: assemble our signature political panel. Rick Davis is with US
Speaker 3: partner at Stone Court Capitol Republican Strategists, alongside Geenie shanz, No,
Speaker 3: Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 4: Great to have you both with us. Here.
Speaker 3: Joe Biden said, we have legislation we passed that's just
Speaker 3: now only really kicking in. When he spoke in the
Speaker 3: Rose Garden, he seemed to suggest that we were just
Speaker 3: getting to the good part, as he's now leaving the
Speaker 3: building and Democrats are largely blaming him today, fairly or
Speaker 3: not for the losses that Democrats incurred on Tuesday night.
Speaker 3: The idea is if he had simply left the year earlier,
Speaker 3: everything would have been different.
Speaker 4: Are they right about that?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been sort of ugly to see on the
Speaker 7: Democratic side, but not unexpected. There's a lot of blame
Speaker 7: going on. You know, I think Joe Biden does own
Speaker 7: some criticism for this, but you know, the blame doesn't
Speaker 7: fall squarely on anyone. Either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.
Speaker 7: Democratic Party contributed to all of this. I mean, just
Speaker 7: one example. When you know seven out of ten Americans
Speaker 7: tell you they are not happy and think we're on
Speaker 7: the wrong track, it's probably not a good idea either
Speaker 7: to run the incumbent at eighty years old, or to
Speaker 7: choose his vice president and hoister on the American public
Speaker 7: and expect them to feel differently. So today Joan Cayley,
Speaker 7: I am saying that Kamala Harris is looking more and
Speaker 7: more like Hubert Humphrey, and that is not a good look. So,
Speaker 7: you know, nothing to do with what she's done, but
Speaker 7: the process by which Democrats did this, it's not a
Speaker 7: surprise that this happened, and so you know, we have
Speaker 7: to think hard about how we move forward. But we
Speaker 7: know now this is not the way you don't put
Speaker 7: somebody on a ticket when people are this unhappy without
Speaker 7: a betting process in terms of a primary.
Speaker 2: But it's not even just about the presidential outcome. Brick
Speaker 2: this election bought brought a rebuke of Democrats all up
Speaker 2: and down the ballot. They have lost the Senate. The
Speaker 2: majority still has yet to be decided with a few
Speaker 2: outstanding races, and they very well could have lost their
Speaker 2: ability to retake control of the House.
Speaker 8: Well, I think you have to assume that right now
Speaker 8: the Republican Party is the majority party in the United States.
Speaker 8: Senator Holly said about a year and a half ago,
Speaker 8: when the Trump campaign was just starting up, that the
Speaker 8: Republican Party is the party of the working class, multicultural
Speaker 8: voters of America. And you would thought he was talking
Speaker 8: about the Democratic Party from you know, ten years ago,
Speaker 8: and so I think you can lay the blame all
Speaker 8: you want, obviously planning to go around, and I feel
Speaker 8: bad that people go through that because having been the
Speaker 8: victim of losing campaigns, it's never fun. But the reality
Speaker 8: is there's been a realignment going on since twenty fifteen
Speaker 8: that the Democrats have done virtually nothing to even abate
Speaker 8: rather than turn around. And so Republicans really are the
Speaker 8: working class family party. If you look at the data,
Speaker 8: Donald Trump significantly increased his share of the vote and
Speaker 8: working class counties all across the country. But what has
Speaker 8: also happened, and it's not attributable to any one decision
Speaker 8: or any one candidate, is that he's made inroads into
Speaker 8: traditional Democratic constituencies, primarily because he was able to show
Speaker 8: that he could offer another alternative having been president and
Speaker 8: actually having benefited these constituencies like you know, young working
Speaker 8: class blacks, young working class Hispanics. I mean, you know,
Speaker 8: when you look at it, it's an economic model, not
Speaker 8: a cultural model that has shifted this campaign.
Speaker 3: Well, it's interesting, Genie, because I'm hearing a lot of
Speaker 3: people say today, where were you guys for the last year.
Speaker 3: How come we weren't having this conversation before Tuesday? Hindsight's
Speaker 3: twenty twenty, right, everybody's an expert in a political analyst
Speaker 3: this morning. But should there have been a more concerted
Speaker 3: look at this issue. We've been talking about inflation since
Speaker 3: Joe Biden walked into the Oval office. How else should
Speaker 3: we have been looking at.
Speaker 7: This Well, you know, so many of the assumptions are
Speaker 7: turnout in the aftermath, as you mentioned Joe to be wrong.
Speaker 7: I'll just give you one example. The Democrats were banking
Speaker 7: on abortion. They were encouraging these states to have abortion
Speaker 7: initiatives on the ballot, and the idea was that you
Speaker 7: would go into the polling booth, particularly as women, and
Speaker 7: you would vote for the right to choose, and then
Speaker 7: while you were there, you would vote for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 7: And that's not what happened. I mean, it's a good thought,
Speaker 7: But what seems to have happened as we look at
Speaker 7: the exit polls is women did what a lot of
Speaker 7: Americans did, which is they said, yeah, I can do
Speaker 7: two things at once. I can go for this ballot initiative,
Speaker 7: support the right to choose, and you know what, then
Speaker 7: I can also protect my economics by voting for change
Speaker 7: and Donald Trump, and so you have both of these
Speaker 7: things going on. And I think one of the big
Speaker 7: mistakes that both parties make, but the Democrats made it
Speaker 7: a lot here is to assume that because you are
Speaker 7: a woman, or because you are a Latino, because you
Speaker 7: are black, you think and believe a certain way. And
Speaker 7: in doing that, they put aside how important the economy
Speaker 7: is for all voters and how important it is for
Speaker 7: people not to be feeling like they are getting quite
Speaker 7: I'm sorry to say this, but screwed as they go
Speaker 7: into the grocery shop or get gas and everything else.
Speaker 7: So you know, people were unhappy with this economy. It
Speaker 7: impacts all of us. Just because I'm a woman doesn't
Speaker 7: necessarily mean I cast that aside to save a right
Speaker 7: to choose first election since you know, since the over
Speaker 7: attorney at grows. So we're just learning some of these lessons.
Speaker 7: But the assumptions are dead wrong, and it's stereotypes and
Speaker 7: that's problematic. Democrats do it a lot well.
Speaker 2: And it is worth pointing out while many states that
Speaker 2: had abortion on the ballot in this cycle did protect
Speaker 2: those rights, there were states that did not including in
Speaker 2: Florida the abortion amendment not making the sixty percent threshold
Speaker 2: in that state, even though it did win the majority
Speaker 2: of the vote. But that points us to Rick that
Speaker 2: there were other things on the ballot and that we
Speaker 2: did see some split ticketing, including potentially in a lot
Speaker 2: of these battleground Senate races. We know the Democrats won
Speaker 2: in Michigan and Wisconsin, we're still waiting to find out
Speaker 2: both Pennsylvania and Arizona. Right now, in Pennsylvania we're within
Speaker 2: four tenths of a percentage point, Dave McCormick up ninety
Speaker 2: eight percent of the votes in In Arizona, not as
Speaker 2: much of the vote in we're moving slower. There's sixty
Speaker 2: nine percent, but Reuben die goes up on Kerry Lake
Speaker 2: by two points. Is there any chance that the person
Speaker 2: who is behind right now in those races is going
Speaker 2: to be able to pull out the victory.
Speaker 8: Yes, I think probably more so because it's so much
Speaker 8: closer in Pennsylvania, as you point out, less outstanding, but
Speaker 8: thirty thousand votes separate the two, and so the reality
Speaker 8: is there's a good chance from what I can tell
Speaker 8: in the voting patterns that McCormack's got a legitimate shot
Speaker 8: at being a United States Senator.
Speaker 4: This year a little trickier in.
Speaker 8: Arizona. It's all sort of concentrated in one place. Maricopa County.
Speaker 8: Meericopa County, we know takes a while to count their votes.
Speaker 8: They love to be the center of attention. Good news
Speaker 8: this year is there's no reporting of irregularities or corruption
Speaker 8: or anything like that. So I suspect that once we
Speaker 8: get a final count from Maricopa County, it'll be a
Speaker 8: settled case in Arizona. But I think there's an outside
Speaker 8: chance that Kerry Lake could overcome Ruben by Diego to
Speaker 8: become a center, but much less so, only because it's
Speaker 8: a much bigger bogie. Two percent of the vote is
Speaker 8: still she's lagging behind, and she'd have to get a
Speaker 8: real big majority over sixty percent of the outstanding votes
Speaker 8: in Maricopa to be able to overtake that. So that's
Speaker 8: a heavy lift. We've seen it happen before, and maybe
Speaker 8: it will come in in sort of the later ballots
Speaker 8: that that absentees are done. But I would say just
Speaker 8: one thing, I don't think we should underestimate the habit
Speaker 8: of Trump voters to bullet vote, especially the early voters
Speaker 8: who were putting it on a ballot and sticking in
Speaker 8: the mail. They may or may not vote a full ballot,
Speaker 8: and we've seen this kind of sort of you know,
Speaker 8: split ticket voting in the past. Although the numbers don't
Speaker 8: add up right, there are more votes for president in
Speaker 8: the state than there are for the Senate candidates.
Speaker 3: We've got a statement, by the way, from the Bob
Speaker 3: Casey campaign in Pennsylvania suggesting we could be headed for
Speaker 3: a recount out here. As they write quote yesterday, the
Speaker 3: vote margin shrunk by fifty thousand. This race is now
Speaker 3: within a half point the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 3: with tens of thousands more votes to be countered. We're
Speaker 3: committed to ensuring as you would imagine the rest of
Speaker 3: the line here, it ends by saying Senator Casey will
Speaker 3: be re elected.
Speaker 1: I don't know how long.
Speaker 3: That's going to take, Rick, but we could be talking
Speaker 3: about recounts within a couple of days here, Kaylee, We've
Speaker 3: got a lot more to follow after our signature panel.
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzana will be back with us
Speaker 3: in our second hour here on balance of power.
Speaker 2: Indeed, and we also while we're here on balance of power,
Speaker 2: have to keep track of the markets because this is
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. And obviously we saw a massive
Speaker 2: move yesterday that first day that we knew Donald Trump
Speaker 2: would be the forty seventh president of the United States.
Speaker 2: You're seeing some of those trends continue today in Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Abigail Dolittle is following them for US.
Speaker 9: Abigail, it is pretty incredible, Kelly, to see the gains
Speaker 9: that we do have for the S and P five
Speaker 9: hundred and the Nasdaq. That S and P five hundred
Speaker 9: up the better part of one percent, the Nasdaq up
Speaker 9: more than one percent, so after yesterday's big rat on
Speaker 9: the certainty that we're seeing, or the rally, the relief
Speaker 9: rally that we're seeing around the certainty of who the
Speaker 9: president elect is, over the last three days, the S
Speaker 9: and P five hundred up significantly, up the better part
Speaker 9: of five percent. That is the best three day stretch
Speaker 9: going back all the way to November of twenty twenty two,
Speaker 9: and again having to do a certainty, but it also
Speaker 9: has to do with the Trump trade, the idea that
Speaker 9: taxes may be cut and tariffs and protectionist policy. So
Speaker 9: when we put this into the perspective, some pockets of
Speaker 9: that Trump trade may be reversing a little bit today.
Speaker 9: But yesterday's gains for Donald Trump are really pretty impressive.
Speaker 9: Outshadowing or shadowing, I should say. The twenty sixteen gains,
Speaker 9: the S and P five hundred up two point five percent.
Speaker 9: That's the best day after a presidential election ever. So
Speaker 9: investors really cheering that the Russell two thousand and up
Speaker 9: nearly six percent, Bitcoin higher. So this is the market's
Speaker 9: way of saying that they too are voting for Donald Trump,
Speaker 9: that they're happy that Donald Trump is the president elect.
Speaker 3: Fifteen handles on the vix abigail or we get a
Speaker 3: little too relaxed he or too comfortable.
Speaker 9: Good question, Joe, because about a week ago it was
Speaker 9: closer to a twenty two, and at that point you
Speaker 9: had some investors playing for volatility, playing around the uncertainty,
Speaker 9: others hedging. Now though not all that nervous investors not
Speaker 9: so nervous. What we do have up later today, if
Speaker 9: you can believe it, I feel as though it's really
Speaker 9: getting lost in the dust. Of course, the big FED meeting,
Speaker 9: it's pretty much baked in though that they are going
Speaker 9: to cut by about one quarter of a basis point.
Speaker 9: It's hard to imagine that they would throw some kind
Speaker 9: of a curve wall. But into that meeting we do
Speaker 9: see a reversal of yield coming in. Also that dollar in.
Speaker 9: But yeah, that vix at fifteen seems as though investors
Speaker 9: are back kind of just in the saddle of going
Speaker 9: along and.
Speaker 3: Happy elbows up on the barrel. Bloomberg's Abigail do little
Speaker 3: thank you, Abigail reminds us. Of course, less than an
Speaker 3: hour from now, we'll be in our special FED coverage, Kaylee,
Speaker 3: not only the announcement but the news conference, which I'd
Speaker 3: be very curious here today. I don't know what Michael
Speaker 3: McKee has up his sleeve, but I suspect we could
Speaker 3: have some questions about politics.
Speaker 2: Well sure, and especially what the political outcomes mean for
Speaker 2: monetary policy outcomes. If we're looking down the barrel of
Speaker 2: potentially inflationary policy in a second Trump administration that will
Speaker 2: impact presumably the trajectory of interest rates. And also Chairman
Speaker 2: Powell might have some questions about his job security as
Speaker 2: he goes to the podium later today. There's a massive
Speaker 2: question about what the FED will look like under Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I thought Trump told us he was going to
Speaker 5: mix messages.
Speaker 3: Come on board the Business Week Interview. We'll have a
Speaker 3: lot more ahead. Andy Smith from New Hampshire up next
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
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Speaker 2: Joining us now is Andrew Smith. He is director of
Speaker 2: the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire. Welcome
Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Andrew. If we look
Speaker 2: at New Hampshire specifically, it's a state that Kamala Harris won.
Speaker 2: There was some question earlier in the cycle as to
Speaker 2: whether or not a Democrat would be able to win
Speaker 2: New Hampshire if it were up for grabs for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: But you also had a Republican winning the gubernatorial race.
Speaker 2: So net net, what does that say about the state?
Speaker 10: Well, it really shows that there is a difference between
Speaker 10: the president and the governor and other elected officials. They're
Speaker 10: the two people that have to basically be administrators, the
Speaker 10: chief the chief executives of their respective electoral basis. And
Speaker 10: New Hampshire is a long tradition of electing Republicans and
Speaker 10: Democrats and opposite parties to those positions. So if you
Speaker 10: just go back in the last twenty years, John Lynch
Speaker 10: was a four term popular governor, we're a Democrat even
Speaker 10: survived the twenty ten Republican landslide, and Chris Shanunu was
Speaker 10: able to do that he was a Republican. He was
Speaker 10: able to survive the Democratic landslide in twenty eighteen here
Speaker 10: and so this year we have a Kelly Aot, former senator,
Speaker 10: pretty well known and liked within the state, was able
Speaker 10: to withstand the Trump win at the top of the
Speaker 10: ticket because she got a lot of that crossover vote
Speaker 10: from people that liked the way that Shanu Knew governed.
Speaker 10: And I think governors in New Hampshire tend to govern
Speaker 10: in nonpartisan ways, much more focused on just making sure
Speaker 10: that the books balance, the taxes are kept low, in
Speaker 10: the economy's running.
Speaker 3: So that's some interesting ticket splitting in New Hampshire. A
Speaker 3: lot of people expected to see it around the country.
Speaker 3: Andrew of course, you know, we base our assumptions on
Speaker 3: what we saw in the last election, but it actually
Speaker 3: took place there. Kelly Ayot, the Republican former senator, won
Speaker 3: her race for governor of New Hampshire even as Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris won at the top of the ticket. Is that
Speaker 3: just New Hampshire being New Hampshire.
Speaker 10: I think there is a lot to be said for that.
Speaker 10: But you can see this across New England. Phil Scott
Speaker 10: wins again, a Republican winning an overwhelmingly Democratic New York.
Speaker 10: Charlie Baker would win in Massachusetts. Mitt Romney would win
Speaker 10: in Massachusetts. So I think there's something that goes on
Speaker 10: in Massachusetts where you are in New England, where you've
Speaker 10: got more mainstream Republicans, kind of more traditional Rockefeller Republicans,
Speaker 10: so to speak, are able to do well even though
Speaker 10: the region and the state of New Hampshire are largely Democratic.
Speaker 2: Well, so as we consider the wider region and the
Speaker 2: tighter margins we are seeing in twenty twenty four for
Speaker 2: the victors, at least at the presidential level. When you
Speaker 2: compare what Biden did in twenty twenty against Trump to
Speaker 2: what Harris did against Trump this time, around. I wonder
Speaker 2: if you think which of those is more indicative of
Speaker 2: the way things are going to go in the future.
Speaker 2: I guess was it just twenty twenty was a super
Speaker 2: high turnout election. There were higher vote tallies in total,
Speaker 2: and ultimately that turn is what made the difference. Or
Speaker 2: does this suggest that we might see more repetitions of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four in that the margins are getting tighter
Speaker 2: and tighter and tighter.
Speaker 1: I think you could see both.
Speaker 10: I think actually that twenty twenty was a record outcome
Speaker 10: for turnout. We haven't seen turnout like that. It was
Speaker 10: even more than the nineteen sixty election, which has always
Speaker 10: been seen in the modern times as the highest turnout election.
Speaker 10: I don't think we'll see that again. Remember that was
Speaker 10: in the midst of COVID, midst of Trump's kind of
Speaker 10: trumpet was being impeached at that time, a lot of
Speaker 10: motivation from Republicans and Democrats to get out. This is
Speaker 10: still high turnout this year, but it's probably more down
Speaker 10: around that sixty to sixty two percent turnout when we
Speaker 10: get all the final numbers, in which I think is
Speaker 10: high but more likely to be a typical sort of
Speaker 10: a turnout as we'll see going forward.
Speaker 3: Well, boy, there's a lot to consider here when it
Speaker 3: comes to your view in New Hampshire.
Speaker 4: I would just love your.
Speaker 3: Impressions broadly here as we look at the country. Andrew,
Speaker 3: You've been in the polling business for a long time
Speaker 3: and there's said to be a reckoning after every election,
Speaker 3: and I wonder what it should be this time under
Speaker 3: sampling trump tweaking the sample to reach more people who
Speaker 3: don't have landlines, young people who don't like talking to pollsters.
Speaker 3: How are people in your industry approaching this new frontier?
Speaker 10: A thousand flowers are blooming, is what I would start
Speaker 10: off with. The whole polling industry has been going through
Speaker 10: a paradigm shift in methodology for the last five years plus,
Speaker 10: similar to what happened in the time between the nineteen
Speaker 10: sixties and nineteen seventies when we moved from in person
Speaker 10: surveys to telephone surveys. Those work very well until the
Speaker 10: later part of the two thousand and oughts when we
Speaker 10: saw response rates really plummet, where we're getting only about
Speaker 10: five percent response rates and telephone surveys that makes them
Speaker 10: very very expensive then, and web surveys certainly much less expensive,
Speaker 10: and since that time, US and any other organizations have
Speaker 10: been experimenting with these different technologies and figuring out best
Speaker 10: practices to use web surveys. We're going to be going
Speaker 10: forward to web surveys, whether we like it or not,
Speaker 10: because the cost difference is so great. But we as
Speaker 10: an industry are going to be looking at this very careful,
Speaker 10: carefully to see what methodologies were most accurate in predicting
Speaker 10: the elections, which didn't work, and hopefully be able to
Speaker 10: have a more unified front. I guess going back, going
Speaker 10: up to the twenty twenty eight elections, I should say
Speaker 10: that generally speaking, the polls performed quite well in this election,
Speaker 10: despite of all the problems that we spoke about.
Speaker 2: Well, and that's true when you kind of look across
Speaker 2: the board, not just at the presidential race, and as
Speaker 2: we look ahead to twenty twenty eight, I do wonder, Andrew,
Speaker 2: if ultimately this was mostly about Donald Trump consistently being underpulled,
Speaker 2: whether that was because of the way voters felt comfortable
Speaker 2: expressing their supporter, lack thereof of him, or what have you.
Speaker 2: But I wonder how much of these challenges are unique
Speaker 2: to this particular candidate. Who's about to start a second term.
Speaker 2: That's all he's constitutionally allowed. He's not going to be
Speaker 2: on the ballot again in twenty eight.
Speaker 10: Well, i'd say, first of all, the methodological challenges that
Speaker 10: we face an industry are going to continue. That said,
Speaker 10: the undercount what we would call the partisan non response
Speaker 10: that seemed to hide some Republican votes over the last
Speaker 10: several cycles that may go away in a non Trump era.
Speaker 10: One of the things that I've seen in the research
Speaker 10: that I've been doing is that Republicans were less likely
Speaker 10: to do things such as put a yard sign in
Speaker 10: front of their yard, or put a bumper stick around
Speaker 10: their car because they were afraid their car was going
Speaker 10: to be vandalized, or even talk about their support for
Speaker 10: Trump to families, coworkers, friends, whoever. So there is a
Speaker 10: reticence on the part of Trump's supporters to not support him,
Speaker 10: and this filts in with a sociological theory called the
Speaker 10: spiral of silence theory, which says that people are less
Speaker 10: likely to talk with a polster, but they're still going
Speaker 10: to vote for their candidate eventually. So this may be
Speaker 10: heightened because of Trump, but we may see this going
Speaker 10: on forward I think it's something that we as researchers
Speaker 10: are going to be paying a lot of attention to.
Speaker 3: Andrew I mentioned your governor, Alex Kelly Ayott. What about
Speaker 3: the governor about to leave the building. Chris Snino threw
Speaker 3: all of his chips on Nicki Haley and has been
Speaker 3: twisting himself into a pretzel in some cases to try
Speaker 3: to justify his support for Donald Trump. What's in his future?
Speaker 3: Is it even in politics?
Speaker 10: I think he has a future in politics. He's quite young.
Speaker 10: He was considering actually running for president and himself in
Speaker 10: twenty twenty four, and I think that he's got that
Speaker 10: in his future to come. I think the problem that
Speaker 10: any governor has, any party member is it's very, very
Speaker 10: difficult to cross paths with the person who's at the
Speaker 10: top of the ticket. I had an old guy, an
Speaker 10: old colleague here in New Hampshire who is the chair
Speaker 10: of the Republican Party back during the nineteen seventies. He says,
Speaker 10: it comes down to it, if you're a member of
Speaker 10: the party, this is your team. You have to support
Speaker 10: everybody up and down the ticket on your team and
Speaker 10: rationalize it why your skunk is better than the other
Speaker 10: party Skunk.
Speaker 3: It's great to have you back with us here on Bloomberg,
Speaker 3: Andrew Director of the University of Hampshire Survey Center. That's
Speaker 3: Andrew Smith joining us from the Granite State team. Thanks
Speaker 3: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure
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