1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Eppo car Play and then Proud Otto 4 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 2: The swing we did see to some degree among black 7 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 2: men for Donald Trump, but most specifically a big swing 8 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 2: in the Latino population of this country. 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a big reason we can, i think, say 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: with credibility why Donald Trump won. The fact of the 11 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 3: matter is, you're right. Black men in the end did 12 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 3: break largely for Kamala Harris, but she had lower shares 13 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 3: of each constituency than Joe Biden did in twenty twenty, 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 3: and when you put it together, that was enough. 15 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 4: To be a problem. 16 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: Indeed, Well, we want to focus more on what's happening 17 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 2: with the Latino vote and overall what the future of 18 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: this administration and potentially the House could look like, and 19 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 2: turn to Republican Congressman Carlos Jimenez. He represents Florida's twenty 20 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 2: eighth district, which includes part of Miami Dade County, and 21 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: he used to be the mayor of that county. Congressman, 22 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: thank you for being here on balance of power. First 23 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 2: of all, congratulations on your reelection. If we could just 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 2: focus on Miami Dave. Donald Trump just became the first 25 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 2: president to win that county, which has a population that 26 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 2: is overwhelmingly Hispanic. Some seventy percent of the population is Hispanic. 27 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,479 Speaker 2: He won it the first time any Republican has done 28 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: so since nineteen eighty eight. What does that capture to you? 29 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 2: And do you think that is a permanent switch or 30 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 2: just a moment in time. 31 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 4: I think it's a permanent switch. 32 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 5: I think Hispanics here are moving more and more to 33 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 5: the right, wive because the Republican Party represents the values 34 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 5: of Hispanics, where people of faith, were people of family, 35 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 5: hard work. We believe in the American dream. We don't 36 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 5: believe in in oppressive government or government or government regulations. 37 00:01:58,200 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 4: Those are the things that we believe in. 38 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 5: And so that's where the Republican Party is, you know 39 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 5: right now. And frankly, the Democrat Party has left left 40 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 5: many Hispanics in their wake as they've gone more left 41 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 5: and left and left. Also remember that many Hispanics here 42 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 5: in Miami Dade County in particular, have fled socialism. We've 43 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 5: fled pictorial regimes that such as Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua. 44 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 5: And when we see the Democrat Party kind of embracing 45 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 5: those regimes and also embracing some of their ideology, that's 46 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 5: what caused the Democrat Party really to lose so many 47 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 5: followers here in Miami Dade County. We've also seen the 48 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 5: Independence swinging to the right too, and it's this trend 49 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 5: has been going on for the last eight years. 50 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 4: So walk back with us. 51 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 3: Two weeks Congressman was the whole uproar over the bad 52 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 3: jokes told at Madison Square Garden referring to Puerto Rico 53 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 3: as a floating island of garbage. 54 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 4: You know what came from that? 55 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 3: We spent an entire week of talking about garbage on 56 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 3: both sides of the isle. 57 00:02:58,600 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 4: Was that a media narrative? 58 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 3: What about the corrosive effect that we all heard this 59 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: would have on the Republican ticket? 60 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 4: Look, hispanics, We're not dumb. 61 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 5: That was a bad joke by an idiot comedian in 62 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 5: Madison Square Garden. 63 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 4: But that's all it was, all right? 64 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 5: You know, President Trump certainly doesn't believe that What was 65 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 5: far worse was when Joe Biden, the President of the 66 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 5: United States, called everybody who supported Trump garbage that came 67 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 5: right out of his mouth. That's far worse than once 68 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 5: some idiot comedian said in Madison Square. 69 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 4: You didn't believe that we have on that. 70 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 3: When Joe Biden tried to rephrase that, know, I. 71 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 4: Think he meant it. I heard what I heard, and 72 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 4: so and so. 73 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 5: Did you know over one hundred million people they heard 74 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 5: what they heard too. And so the fact that he 75 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 5: was trying to clean it up, and then he had 76 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 5: some people trying to help him clean it up, that's 77 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 5: also an insult to us. 78 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 4: Okay, we're not dumb. 79 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 5: We understand what he said, we understand why he said it, 80 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 5: and so that was an insult to now the majority 81 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 5: of the American people, obviously because Donald Trump not only 82 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 5: won the electoral College, he also won the popular vote. 83 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 5: And so obviously we didn't believe that retraction as we 84 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 5: didn't pay much attention to some you know, comics comments 85 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 5: about Puerto Rico. 86 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 4: There. 87 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 5: It wasn't it wasn't funny, and certainly, you know, it 88 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 5: did not reflect our ideals. You know, Puerto Rico, they're 89 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 5: great patriots in Puerto Rico. I have a number of 90 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 5: friends that are from Puerto Rico. I love Puerto Rico, 91 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 5: and so that was just a stupid thing to say 92 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 5: by an idiot. 93 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 2: So that's what was heard by you and others last week. 94 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: I'm interested as well, Congressman, and what you heard this 95 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 2: morning the Speaker Mike Johnson, of course, had a call 96 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 2: with members, and I'm wondering what projections you are getting 97 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 2: from what is currently the majority leadership as to whether 98 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: or not it is the expectation that you will stay 99 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: a member of the majority. 100 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, we are the leader, and also all the leadership 101 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,239 Speaker 5: there expects that we will attain at least two hundred 102 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 5: and eighteen and that we'll go beyond that. And so 103 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 5: they're pretty confident in that number. And so you know what, 104 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 5: I've seen nothing that they said, you know, gave me 105 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 5: rise for concern at this point. I certainly would love 106 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 5: to have a bigger majority. First of all, it's the majority, 107 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 5: because the majority in the House is everything, even if 108 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 5: it's one seat majority, it's everything, and we need to 109 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 5: have the majority. But they're confident that we're going to 110 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 5: attain it, and so I will I have confidence in 111 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 5: my leadership, and I believe the leave. I believe that 112 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 5: we will be the majority party in the House. 113 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 3: Well before we get to the next session. Let's finish 114 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 3: this one, Congressman, what's this lame duck session going to 115 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 3: look like? There were questions about, for instance, an emergency 116 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 3: supplemental for natural disasters the hurricanes that we saw. How 117 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 3: about the farm bill? What can you get done before 118 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 3: the end of the year. 119 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 4: Hopefully we can get done a lot. I'd love to 120 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 4: get the Farm bill through. 121 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 5: Look, we're gonna have to obviously talk to the President 122 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 5: electa and what and what the administration wants us to do. 123 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 5: But we need to pass a continuing resolution to keep 124 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 5: the government open. 125 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 4: I am, I am. I have high confidence who we 126 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 4: will be doing. That question is how long? 127 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 5: I'd say probably into the March April timeframe. That way, 128 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 5: it gives us enough time, if we're in the majority, 129 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 5: to put together the packages that we need to send 130 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 5: on to the White House to start turning this country 131 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 5: around and start implementing the. 132 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 4: Policies of Donald J. Trump. 133 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 5: And so you know, we're going to be working arm 134 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 5: in arm, hand in hand with the Senate now that 135 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 5: we control also the Senate. Look, we now, if we 136 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 5: control the House, the Senate, and the White House, we 137 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,119 Speaker 5: have no more excuses. We need to get to work. 138 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 5: We need to deliver for the American people. We need 139 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,040 Speaker 5: to give them. We need to give them a break 140 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 5: on high prices. We need to restore our energy independence 141 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 5: and energy dominance. 142 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:39,359 Speaker 4: We need to. 143 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 5: Restore our place in the world, and so all those 144 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 5: things we need to do and do it quickly. And 145 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 5: we have to tackle the long term problem of our debt. 146 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 5: The national debt is running out of control, and our 147 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 5: interest payments are higher than our payments for our expenditures 148 00:06:57,760 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 5: on national defense. 149 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 4: We need to get that under control. 150 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 2: Well, I'm so glad you brought that up, Congressman, because 151 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 2: as you discussed delivering for the American people, I do 152 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 2: wonder what the debt and deficit in mind. If you 153 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: think it's realistic to deliver on all of the promises 154 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 2: that President elect Trump has made when it comes to 155 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: taxes and all of the tax breaks he would like 156 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 2: to offer, it is likely to be deficit additive. And 157 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 2: I wonder if you think that actually may make it 158 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 2: more difficult to work it straight through even a Republican 159 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 2: House of Representatives. 160 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 5: Oh, we need to look at the revenue side of 161 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 5: the House too. It's not just the deficit side of 162 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 5: the house. I've always said that there's two sides to this. 163 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 5: There's spending cuts that we have to implement, but there's 164 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 5: also revenue enhancements. One thing that the President has alluded 165 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 5: to already is that we have natural resources underneath our feet. 166 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 5: For some reason or another, this administration has really hampered 167 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 5: our oil and gas exploration and utilization. We should not 168 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 5: only just be energy independent, which apparently we're not right now. 169 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,119 Speaker 5: We should be an energy dominant. We should be using 170 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 5: it to help our allies around the world and also 171 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 5: to balance the the imbalance and trade that we have. 172 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 5: And so, yeah, it's gonna be difficult to implement all 173 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 5: these things, but we need to find the solutions. Look, though, 174 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 5: one of the things that the President is really proud 175 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 5: of is that when he makes a promise, he keeps it. 176 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 5: And so I'm sure that he's gonna come to us 177 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 5: and said, I made these promises, We're going to have 178 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 5: to find a way to make sure that it doesn't 179 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 5: increase the deficit. And I believe you know, here's what 180 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 5: I think will happen because of these promises, We're going 181 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 5: to have more growth, economic growth, and when you have 182 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 5: economic growth, you also have additional revenue into the coffers, 183 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 5: just like what happened during the Reagan era where we 184 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 5: had more money coming in even though there was some 185 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 5: tax cuts implemented by by the Reagan administration. 186 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, we had a long conversation with Joe Lavornia about 187 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 3: that right around this time yesterday, Congressman, just about a 188 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 3: minute left. What'll happen in the energy market under the 189 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,559 Speaker 3: Trump administration? Knowing that we're already at a record level 190 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 3: of production, Now, how do you compel oil producers to 191 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 3: pump more having seen them burn so many times in 192 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 3: the past, and knowing their pension for returning cash to shareholders. Yeah, no, Look, 193 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 3: we need to have a stable energy policy and not 194 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 3: one that goes up and down and up and down 195 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 3: depending on the administration. And that's something that we're going 196 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 3: to have to do with legislation. The executive branch hamper's 197 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 3: production or can increase production simply through the stroke of 198 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 3: a pen executive action. We need to make sure that 199 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 3: those that are investing in energy production are sured a 200 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 3: the long term investment is going. 201 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 4: To pay off. 202 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 5: What we need to do is actually start to supplant 203 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 5: Russian oil and adversarial oil with American oil, you know, 204 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 5: the Iranian sh you know, we should be able to 205 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 5: put sanctions on Iranian oil, Venezuelan oil, because those are 206 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 5: our enemies and we need to start sanctioning them so 207 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 5: that we deny them the funds that they need in 208 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 5: order to wreak havoc around the world. That's one of 209 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 5: the things I would love to see the United States do. 210 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 3: Great to have you with us this week, Congressman, let's 211 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 3: meet up when we're back in Washington. Congressman Carlos Himenez 212 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 3: of Florida, the Republican with us on Ballots of Power. 213 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 4: I'll I'm much more ahead. 214 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 3: On Bloomberg TV and radio. 215 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 216 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 217 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 1: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 218 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 219 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 220 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 2: It, of course, is two days after the election in 221 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,079 Speaker 2: the US, in which Donald Trump will become the forty 222 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 2: seventh president of the United States, something that was acknowledged 223 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 2: today in a Rose Garden speech by President Joe Biden, 224 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 2: who shared that he had called Trump to congratulate him 225 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 2: on his victory and has pledged to oversee a peaceful 226 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: transition of power. It was similar in language to what 227 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,719 Speaker 2: we heard from the loser in this presidential election, Vice 228 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: President Kamala Harris, who delivered her concession speech at Howard 229 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 2: University yesterday. 230 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 6: The come of this election is not what we wanted, 231 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 6: not what we fought for, not what we voted for. 232 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 6: While I conceide this election, I do not concede the 233 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 6: fight that fueled this campaign. I spoke with President elect 234 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 6: Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I also told. 235 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 7: Him that we will. 236 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 6: Help him and his team with their transition and that 237 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 6: we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power. 238 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 3: Now that we've heard from both Harris and Biden, we 239 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 3: assemble our signature political panel. Rick Davis is with US 240 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 3: partner at Stone Court Capitol Republican Strategists, alongside Geenie shanz, No, 241 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 3: Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University. 242 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 4: Great to have you both with us. Here. 243 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 3: Joe Biden said, we have legislation we passed that's just 244 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 3: now only really kicking in. When he spoke in the 245 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 3: Rose Garden, he seemed to suggest that we were just 246 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 3: getting to the good part, as he's now leaving the 247 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 3: building and Democrats are largely blaming him today, fairly or 248 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 3: not for the losses that Democrats incurred on Tuesday night. 249 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 3: The idea is if he had simply left the year earlier, 250 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 3: everything would have been different. 251 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 4: Are they right about that? 252 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been sort of ugly to see on the 253 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 7: Democratic side, but not unexpected. There's a lot of blame 254 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 7: going on. You know, I think Joe Biden does own 255 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 7: some criticism for this, but you know, the blame doesn't 256 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 7: fall squarely on anyone. Either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. 257 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 7: Democratic Party contributed to all of this. I mean, just 258 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 7: one example. When you know seven out of ten Americans 259 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 7: tell you they are not happy and think we're on 260 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 7: the wrong track, it's probably not a good idea either 261 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 7: to run the incumbent at eighty years old, or to 262 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 7: choose his vice president and hoister on the American public 263 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 7: and expect them to feel differently. So today Joan Cayley, 264 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 7: I am saying that Kamala Harris is looking more and 265 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 7: more like Hubert Humphrey, and that is not a good look. So, 266 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 7: you know, nothing to do with what she's done, but 267 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 7: the process by which Democrats did this, it's not a 268 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 7: surprise that this happened, and so you know, we have 269 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,839 Speaker 7: to think hard about how we move forward. But we 270 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 7: know now this is not the way you don't put 271 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 7: somebody on a ticket when people are this unhappy without 272 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 7: a betting process in terms of a primary. 273 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 2: But it's not even just about the presidential outcome. Brick 274 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 2: this election bought brought a rebuke of Democrats all up 275 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 2: and down the ballot. They have lost the Senate. The 276 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 2: majority still has yet to be decided with a few 277 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 2: outstanding races, and they very well could have lost their 278 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 2: ability to retake control of the House. 279 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 8: Well, I think you have to assume that right now 280 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 8: the Republican Party is the majority party in the United States. 281 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 8: Senator Holly said about a year and a half ago, 282 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 8: when the Trump campaign was just starting up, that the 283 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 8: Republican Party is the party of the working class, multicultural 284 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 8: voters of America. And you would thought he was talking 285 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 8: about the Democratic Party from you know, ten years ago, 286 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 8: and so I think you can lay the blame all 287 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 8: you want, obviously planning to go around, and I feel 288 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 8: bad that people go through that because having been the 289 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 8: victim of losing campaigns, it's never fun. But the reality 290 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 8: is there's been a realignment going on since twenty fifteen 291 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 8: that the Democrats have done virtually nothing to even abate 292 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 8: rather than turn around. And so Republicans really are the 293 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 8: working class family party. If you look at the data, 294 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 8: Donald Trump significantly increased his share of the vote and 295 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 8: working class counties all across the country. But what has 296 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 8: also happened, and it's not attributable to any one decision 297 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 8: or any one candidate, is that he's made inroads into 298 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 8: traditional Democratic constituencies, primarily because he was able to show 299 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 8: that he could offer another alternative having been president and 300 00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 8: actually having benefited these constituencies like you know, young working 301 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 8: class blacks, young working class Hispanics. I mean, you know, 302 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 8: when you look at it, it's an economic model, not 303 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 8: a cultural model that has shifted this campaign. 304 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 3: Well, it's interesting, Genie, because I'm hearing a lot of 305 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 3: people say today, where were you guys for the last year. 306 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 3: How come we weren't having this conversation before Tuesday? Hindsight's 307 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: twenty twenty, right, everybody's an expert in a political analyst 308 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 3: this morning. But should there have been a more concerted 309 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 3: look at this issue. We've been talking about inflation since 310 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 3: Joe Biden walked into the Oval office. How else should 311 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 3: we have been looking at. 312 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 7: This Well, you know, so many of the assumptions are 313 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 7: turnout in the aftermath, as you mentioned Joe to be wrong. 314 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 7: I'll just give you one example. The Democrats were banking 315 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 7: on abortion. They were encouraging these states to have abortion 316 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 7: initiatives on the ballot, and the idea was that you 317 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 7: would go into the polling booth, particularly as women, and 318 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 7: you would vote for the right to choose, and then 319 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 7: while you were there, you would vote for Kamala Harris. 320 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 7: And that's not what happened. I mean, it's a good thought, 321 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 7: But what seems to have happened as we look at 322 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 7: the exit polls is women did what a lot of 323 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 7: Americans did, which is they said, yeah, I can do 324 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 7: two things at once. I can go for this ballot initiative, 325 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 7: support the right to choose, and you know what, then 326 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 7: I can also protect my economics by voting for change 327 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 7: and Donald Trump, and so you have both of these 328 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 7: things going on. And I think one of the big 329 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 7: mistakes that both parties make, but the Democrats made it 330 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 7: a lot here is to assume that because you are 331 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 7: a woman, or because you are a Latino, because you 332 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 7: are black, you think and believe a certain way. And 333 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 7: in doing that, they put aside how important the economy 334 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 7: is for all voters and how important it is for 335 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 7: people not to be feeling like they are getting quite 336 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 7: I'm sorry to say this, but screwed as they go 337 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 7: into the grocery shop or get gas and everything else. 338 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 7: So you know, people were unhappy with this economy. It 339 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 7: impacts all of us. Just because I'm a woman doesn't 340 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 7: necessarily mean I cast that aside to save a right 341 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 7: to choose first election since you know, since the over 342 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 7: attorney at grows. So we're just learning some of these lessons. 343 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 7: But the assumptions are dead wrong, and it's stereotypes and 344 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 7: that's problematic. Democrats do it a lot well. 345 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 2: And it is worth pointing out while many states that 346 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 2: had abortion on the ballot in this cycle did protect 347 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 2: those rights, there were states that did not including in 348 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 2: Florida the abortion amendment not making the sixty percent threshold 349 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 2: in that state, even though it did win the majority 350 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 2: of the vote. But that points us to Rick that 351 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,479 Speaker 2: there were other things on the ballot and that we 352 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 2: did see some split ticketing, including potentially in a lot 353 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: of these battleground Senate races. We know the Democrats won 354 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 2: in Michigan and Wisconsin, we're still waiting to find out 355 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 2: both Pennsylvania and Arizona. Right now, in Pennsylvania we're within 356 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 2: four tenths of a percentage point, Dave McCormick up ninety 357 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 2: eight percent of the votes in In Arizona, not as 358 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 2: much of the vote in we're moving slower. There's sixty 359 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 2: nine percent, but Reuben die goes up on Kerry Lake 360 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 2: by two points. Is there any chance that the person 361 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 2: who is behind right now in those races is going 362 00:17:58,680 --> 00:17:59,959 Speaker 2: to be able to pull out the victory. 363 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 8: Yes, I think probably more so because it's so much 364 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 8: closer in Pennsylvania, as you point out, less outstanding, but 365 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 8: thirty thousand votes separate the two, and so the reality 366 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 8: is there's a good chance from what I can tell 367 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 8: in the voting patterns that McCormack's got a legitimate shot 368 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 8: at being a United States Senator. 369 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 4: This year a little trickier in. 370 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 8: Arizona. It's all sort of concentrated in one place. Maricopa County. 371 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 8: Meericopa County, we know takes a while to count their votes. 372 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 8: They love to be the center of attention. Good news 373 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 8: this year is there's no reporting of irregularities or corruption 374 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 8: or anything like that. So I suspect that once we 375 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 8: get a final count from Maricopa County, it'll be a 376 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 8: settled case in Arizona. But I think there's an outside 377 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 8: chance that Kerry Lake could overcome Ruben by Diego to 378 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 8: become a center, but much less so, only because it's 379 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 8: a much bigger bogie. Two percent of the vote is 380 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 8: still she's lagging behind, and she'd have to get a 381 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 8: real big majority over sixty percent of the outstanding votes 382 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 8: in Maricopa to be able to overtake that. So that's 383 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 8: a heavy lift. We've seen it happen before, and maybe 384 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 8: it will come in in sort of the later ballots 385 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 8: that that absentees are done. But I would say just 386 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 8: one thing, I don't think we should underestimate the habit 387 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 8: of Trump voters to bullet vote, especially the early voters 388 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 8: who were putting it on a ballot and sticking in 389 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 8: the mail. They may or may not vote a full ballot, 390 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 8: and we've seen this kind of sort of you know, 391 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 8: split ticket voting in the past. Although the numbers don't 392 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 8: add up right, there are more votes for president in 393 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 8: the state than there are for the Senate candidates. 394 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 3: We've got a statement, by the way, from the Bob 395 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 3: Casey campaign in Pennsylvania suggesting we could be headed for 396 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 3: a recount out here. As they write quote yesterday, the 397 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 3: vote margin shrunk by fifty thousand. This race is now 398 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 3: within a half point the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania, 399 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 3: with tens of thousands more votes to be countered. We're 400 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 3: committed to ensuring as you would imagine the rest of 401 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 3: the line here, it ends by saying Senator Casey will 402 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 3: be re elected. 403 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: I don't know how long. 404 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 3: That's going to take, Rick, but we could be talking 405 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: about recounts within a couple of days here, Kaylee, We've 406 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 3: got a lot more to follow after our signature panel. 407 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzana will be back with us 408 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 3: in our second hour here on balance of power. 409 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 2: Indeed, and we also while we're here on balance of power, 410 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 2: have to keep track of the markets because this is 411 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. And obviously we saw a massive 412 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 2: move yesterday that first day that we knew Donald Trump 413 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 2: would be the forty seventh president of the United States. 414 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 2: You're seeing some of those trends continue today in Bloomberg's 415 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 2: Abigail Dolittle is following them for US. 416 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 9: Abigail, it is pretty incredible, Kelly, to see the gains 417 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 9: that we do have for the S and P five 418 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 9: hundred and the Nasdaq. That S and P five hundred 419 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 9: up the better part of one percent, the Nasdaq up 420 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 9: more than one percent, so after yesterday's big rat on 421 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 9: the certainty that we're seeing, or the rally, the relief 422 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 9: rally that we're seeing around the certainty of who the 423 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 9: president elect is, over the last three days, the S 424 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 9: and P five hundred up significantly, up the better part 425 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 9: of five percent. That is the best three day stretch 426 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 9: going back all the way to November of twenty twenty two, 427 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 9: and again having to do a certainty, but it also 428 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 9: has to do with the Trump trade, the idea that 429 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 9: taxes may be cut and tariffs and protectionist policy. So 430 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 9: when we put this into the perspective, some pockets of 431 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 9: that Trump trade may be reversing a little bit today. 432 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 9: But yesterday's gains for Donald Trump are really pretty impressive. 433 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 9: Outshadowing or shadowing, I should say. The twenty sixteen gains, 434 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 9: the S and P five hundred up two point five percent. 435 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 9: That's the best day after a presidential election ever. So 436 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 9: investors really cheering that the Russell two thousand and up 437 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 9: nearly six percent, Bitcoin higher. So this is the market's 438 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 9: way of saying that they too are voting for Donald Trump, 439 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 9: that they're happy that Donald Trump is the president elect. 440 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 3: Fifteen handles on the vix abigail or we get a 441 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 3: little too relaxed he or too comfortable. 442 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 9: Good question, Joe, because about a week ago it was 443 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 9: closer to a twenty two, and at that point you 444 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 9: had some investors playing for volatility, playing around the uncertainty, 445 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 9: others hedging. Now though not all that nervous investors not 446 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 9: so nervous. What we do have up later today, if 447 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 9: you can believe it, I feel as though it's really 448 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 9: getting lost in the dust. Of course, the big FED meeting, 449 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 9: it's pretty much baked in though that they are going 450 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,880 Speaker 9: to cut by about one quarter of a basis point. 451 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 9: It's hard to imagine that they would throw some kind 452 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 9: of a curve wall. But into that meeting we do 453 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 9: see a reversal of yield coming in. Also that dollar in. 454 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 9: But yeah, that vix at fifteen seems as though investors 455 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 9: are back kind of just in the saddle of going 456 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 9: along and. 457 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 3: Happy elbows up on the barrel. Bloomberg's Abigail do little 458 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 3: thank you, Abigail reminds us. Of course, less than an 459 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 3: hour from now, we'll be in our special FED coverage, Kaylee, 460 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,120 Speaker 3: not only the announcement but the news conference, which I'd 461 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 3: be very curious here today. I don't know what Michael 462 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 3: McKee has up his sleeve, but I suspect we could 463 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 3: have some questions about politics. 464 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,679 Speaker 2: Well sure, and especially what the political outcomes mean for 465 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 2: monetary policy outcomes. If we're looking down the barrel of 466 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 2: potentially inflationary policy in a second Trump administration that will 467 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 2: impact presumably the trajectory of interest rates. And also Chairman 468 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,360 Speaker 2: Powell might have some questions about his job security as 469 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 2: he goes to the podium later today. There's a massive 470 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 2: question about what the FED will look like under Donald Trump. 471 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I thought Trump told us he was going to 472 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 5: mix messages. 473 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 3: Come on board the Business Week Interview. We'll have a 474 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 3: lot more ahead. Andy Smith from New Hampshire up next 475 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 476 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Can't 477 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo CarPlay and 478 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: then froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 479 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 480 00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 481 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 2: Joining us now is Andrew Smith. He is director of 482 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,439 Speaker 2: the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire. Welcome 483 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Andrew. If we look 484 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 2: at New Hampshire specifically, it's a state that Kamala Harris won. 485 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 2: There was some question earlier in the cycle as to 486 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 2: whether or not a Democrat would be able to win 487 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 2: New Hampshire if it were up for grabs for Donald Trump. 488 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 2: But you also had a Republican winning the gubernatorial race. 489 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 2: So net net, what does that say about the state? 490 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 10: Well, it really shows that there is a difference between 491 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 10: the president and the governor and other elected officials. They're 492 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 10: the two people that have to basically be administrators, the 493 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 10: chief the chief executives of their respective electoral basis. And 494 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 10: New Hampshire is a long tradition of electing Republicans and 495 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 10: Democrats and opposite parties to those positions. So if you 496 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 10: just go back in the last twenty years, John Lynch 497 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 10: was a four term popular governor, we're a Democrat even 498 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 10: survived the twenty ten Republican landslide, and Chris Shanunu was 499 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 10: able to do that he was a Republican. He was 500 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 10: able to survive the Democratic landslide in twenty eighteen here 501 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 10: and so this year we have a Kelly Aot, former senator, 502 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 10: pretty well known and liked within the state, was able 503 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 10: to withstand the Trump win at the top of the 504 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 10: ticket because she got a lot of that crossover vote 505 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 10: from people that liked the way that Shanu Knew governed. 506 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 10: And I think governors in New Hampshire tend to govern 507 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 10: in nonpartisan ways, much more focused on just making sure 508 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 10: that the books balance, the taxes are kept low, in 509 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:37,359 Speaker 10: the economy's running. 510 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 3: So that's some interesting ticket splitting in New Hampshire. A 511 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 3: lot of people expected to see it around the country. 512 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:44,919 Speaker 3: Andrew of course, you know, we base our assumptions on 513 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 3: what we saw in the last election, but it actually 514 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 3: took place there. Kelly Ayot, the Republican former senator, won 515 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 3: her race for governor of New Hampshire even as Kamala 516 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 3: Harris won at the top of the ticket. Is that 517 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 3: just New Hampshire being New Hampshire. 518 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 10: I think there is a lot to be said for that. 519 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 10: But you can see this across New England. Phil Scott 520 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 10: wins again, a Republican winning an overwhelmingly Democratic New York. 521 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 10: Charlie Baker would win in Massachusetts. Mitt Romney would win 522 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 10: in Massachusetts. So I think there's something that goes on 523 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 10: in Massachusetts where you are in New England, where you've 524 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 10: got more mainstream Republicans, kind of more traditional Rockefeller Republicans, 525 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 10: so to speak, are able to do well even though 526 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:30,439 Speaker 10: the region and the state of New Hampshire are largely Democratic. 527 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 2: Well, so as we consider the wider region and the 528 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 2: tighter margins we are seeing in twenty twenty four for 529 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 2: the victors, at least at the presidential level. When you 530 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 2: compare what Biden did in twenty twenty against Trump to 531 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 2: what Harris did against Trump this time, around. I wonder 532 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 2: if you think which of those is more indicative of 533 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 2: the way things are going to go in the future. 534 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 2: I guess was it just twenty twenty was a super 535 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 2: high turnout election. There were higher vote tallies in total, 536 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 2: and ultimately that turn is what made the difference. Or 537 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,159 Speaker 2: does this suggest that we might see more repetitions of 538 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four in that the margins are getting tighter 539 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 2: and tighter and tighter. 540 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 1: I think you could see both. 541 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,920 Speaker 10: I think actually that twenty twenty was a record outcome 542 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 10: for turnout. We haven't seen turnout like that. It was 543 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 10: even more than the nineteen sixty election, which has always 544 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 10: been seen in the modern times as the highest turnout election. 545 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 10: I don't think we'll see that again. Remember that was 546 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 10: in the midst of COVID, midst of Trump's kind of 547 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 10: trumpet was being impeached at that time, a lot of 548 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 10: motivation from Republicans and Democrats to get out. This is 549 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 10: still high turnout this year, but it's probably more down 550 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 10: around that sixty to sixty two percent turnout when we 551 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 10: get all the final numbers, in which I think is 552 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 10: high but more likely to be a typical sort of 553 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:48,959 Speaker 10: a turnout as we'll see going forward. 554 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 3: Well, boy, there's a lot to consider here when it 555 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 3: comes to your view in New Hampshire. 556 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 4: I would just love your. 557 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 3: Impressions broadly here as we look at the country. Andrew, 558 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,120 Speaker 3: You've been in the polling business for a long time 559 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 3: and there's said to be a reckoning after every election, 560 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 3: and I wonder what it should be this time under 561 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 3: sampling trump tweaking the sample to reach more people who 562 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,200 Speaker 3: don't have landlines, young people who don't like talking to pollsters. 563 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 3: How are people in your industry approaching this new frontier? 564 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,240 Speaker 10: A thousand flowers are blooming, is what I would start 565 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 10: off with. The whole polling industry has been going through 566 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 10: a paradigm shift in methodology for the last five years plus, 567 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 10: similar to what happened in the time between the nineteen 568 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 10: sixties and nineteen seventies when we moved from in person 569 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 10: surveys to telephone surveys. Those work very well until the 570 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 10: later part of the two thousand and oughts when we 571 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 10: saw response rates really plummet, where we're getting only about 572 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 10: five percent response rates and telephone surveys that makes them 573 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 10: very very expensive then, and web surveys certainly much less expensive, 574 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 10: and since that time, US and any other organizations have 575 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 10: been experimenting with these different technologies and figuring out best 576 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 10: practices to use web surveys. We're going to be going 577 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 10: forward to web surveys, whether we like it or not, 578 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 10: because the cost difference is so great. But we as 579 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 10: an industry are going to be looking at this very careful, 580 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 10: carefully to see what methodologies were most accurate in predicting 581 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 10: the elections, which didn't work, and hopefully be able to 582 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 10: have a more unified front. I guess going back, going 583 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 10: up to the twenty twenty eight elections, I should say 584 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 10: that generally speaking, the polls performed quite well in this election, 585 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 10: despite of all the problems that we spoke about. 586 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 2: Well, and that's true when you kind of look across 587 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 2: the board, not just at the presidential race, and as 588 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 2: we look ahead to twenty twenty eight, I do wonder, Andrew, 589 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 2: if ultimately this was mostly about Donald Trump consistently being underpulled, 590 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 2: whether that was because of the way voters felt comfortable 591 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 2: expressing their supporter, lack thereof of him, or what have you. 592 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 2: But I wonder how much of these challenges are unique 593 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 2: to this particular candidate. Who's about to start a second term. 594 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 2: That's all he's constitutionally allowed. He's not going to be 595 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 2: on the ballot again in twenty eight. 596 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 10: Well, i'd say, first of all, the methodological challenges that 597 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 10: we face an industry are going to continue. That said, 598 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 10: the undercount what we would call the partisan non response 599 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 10: that seemed to hide some Republican votes over the last 600 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 10: several cycles that may go away in a non Trump era. 601 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 10: One of the things that I've seen in the research 602 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 10: that I've been doing is that Republicans were less likely 603 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 10: to do things such as put a yard sign in 604 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 10: front of their yard, or put a bumper stick around 605 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 10: their car because they were afraid their car was going 606 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 10: to be vandalized, or even talk about their support for 607 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 10: Trump to families, coworkers, friends, whoever. So there is a 608 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 10: reticence on the part of Trump's supporters to not support him, 609 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,959 Speaker 10: and this filts in with a sociological theory called the 610 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 10: spiral of silence theory, which says that people are less 611 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 10: likely to talk with a polster, but they're still going 612 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 10: to vote for their candidate eventually. So this may be 613 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 10: heightened because of Trump, but we may see this going 614 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 10: on forward I think it's something that we as researchers 615 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 10: are going to be paying a lot of attention to. 616 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 3: Andrew I mentioned your governor, Alex Kelly Ayott. What about 617 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 3: the governor about to leave the building. Chris Snino threw 618 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 3: all of his chips on Nicki Haley and has been 619 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 3: twisting himself into a pretzel in some cases to try 620 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 3: to justify his support for Donald Trump. What's in his future? 621 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 3: Is it even in politics? 622 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 10: I think he has a future in politics. He's quite young. 623 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 10: He was considering actually running for president and himself in 624 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 10: twenty twenty four, and I think that he's got that 625 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 10: in his future to come. I think the problem that 626 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 10: any governor has, any party member is it's very, very 627 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 10: difficult to cross paths with the person who's at the 628 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 10: top of the ticket. I had an old guy, an 629 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 10: old colleague here in New Hampshire who is the chair 630 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 10: of the Republican Party back during the nineteen seventies. He says, 631 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 10: it comes down to it, if you're a member of 632 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 10: the party, this is your team. You have to support 633 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 10: everybody up and down the ticket on your team and 634 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 10: rationalize it why your skunk is better than the other 635 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 10: party Skunk. 636 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 3: It's great to have you back with us here on Bloomberg, 637 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 3: Andrew Director of the University of Hampshire Survey Center. That's 638 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:23,080 Speaker 3: Andrew Smith joining us from the Granite State team. Thanks 639 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 3: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure 640 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 3: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or 641 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us 642 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 3: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at 643 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.