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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: There's going to be more voting today, but it does

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Speaker 2: not look like that's going to break anything here. In fact,

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Speaker 2: we're going to likely go through the weekend and start

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Speaker 2: things on Monday with the government shut down about a

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Speaker 2: half hour from now. We expect voting on the continuing

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Speaker 2: resolutions that you've already seen voting on.

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Speaker 3: We've had three rounds.

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Speaker 2: Today is the fourth, and as we heard earlier from

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Speaker 2: the leadership, they don't expect anything to change. Speaker Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 2: Senate Leader John Thune speaking to reporters earlier today.

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Speaker 4: Let's listen, they did it thirteen times during the Biden

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Speaker 4: administration in the previous four years.

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Speaker 3: We suddenly they won't do it.

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Speaker 4: So everybody has to asked themselves why it has nothing

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Speaker 4: to do with healthcare.

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Speaker 3: The subsidies that they're.

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Speaker 4: Saying is the issue is not the issue that is

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Speaker 4: an issue for the end.

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Speaker 5: Of the year.

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Speaker 6: They have an opportunity, a fourth opportunity, fourth time today,

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Speaker 6: fourth time to vote to open up the government and

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Speaker 6: allow us to do the rest of the work that

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Speaker 6: the American people expects us to do. They have taken

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Speaker 6: hostage the federal government and buy extension the American people.

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Speaker 2: We're going to see that fourth round before this hour

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Speaker 2: is out, together, and we'll have our eyes on the

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Speaker 2: Senate floor ahead of our conversation with Senator Todd Young,

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Speaker 2: who's going to join us live from Capitol Hill. Our

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Speaker 2: friend Laura Davison is with US Deputy Bureau Chief here

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Speaker 2: from Bloomberg in Washington.

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Speaker 3: Laura, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: The speaker says, this is not about Obamacare subsidies, that

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Speaker 2: that's an end of your issue. Democrats are telling us

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Speaker 2: no open enrollments begun. Notices are going out. This is

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Speaker 2: a now issue. It doesn't sound like we're any closer.

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Speaker 3: To a deal.

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Speaker 7: We are three days and we are no closer, and

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Speaker 7: it's very likely in three more days we will still

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Speaker 7: be at this very same spot. Because they're going to

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Speaker 7: go home for the week end, come back Monday night

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Speaker 7: is when they actually get back into the Capitol. They'll

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Speaker 7: then start talking. They'll have well, maybe a little sense

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Speaker 7: how constituents are feeling at home about this.

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Speaker 3: So you may seem some Democrats who have a little

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Speaker 3: bit more cold.

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Speaker 7: Feet, but it's very likely that you know, this is

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Speaker 7: you know, this time next week, We'll still be having

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Speaker 7: a similarish conversation this.

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Speaker 3: Time next week. So okay, so we're beyond a week.

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Speaker 2: At that point, when does the pressure become too great

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Speaker 2: for Democrats to hold out?

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Speaker 3: We heard references to a jail break.

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Speaker 2: I think it was Dan Sullivan who was talking about

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Speaker 2: that the other evening. The Republican from Alaska they need

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Speaker 2: what five more pickoff five more Democrats?

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Speaker 3: Is that possible in lieu of a deal?

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Speaker 7: At some point that will have to become possible. They'll

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Speaker 7: have to get to some sort of resolution. But whether

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Speaker 7: that is, you know, a week or two, or we're

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Speaker 7: talking something more like a month, that's a very different thing.

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Speaker 7: There's two key indicators to watch here.

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Speaker 3: One, what does the.

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Speaker 7: Polling look like right now? The early polls have shown

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Speaker 7: that Republicans are still taking the vast majority, or not

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Speaker 7: the vast majority, but the majority of the heat for

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Speaker 7: this that flips and suddenly Democrats are now being blamed.

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Speaker 7: That's going to cause a lot of people to start

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Speaker 7: to wabble. Additionally, is how much of is this healthcare

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Speaker 7: issue becoming a thing? Those notices just went out right

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Speaker 7: early this week telling people what their premium spikes we're

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Speaker 7: going to be, so that hasn't really really trickled down.

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Speaker 7: People haven't really realized if the people that are going

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Speaker 7: to be affected, So that will also matter of how

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Speaker 7: much that resonates through those key areas.

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Speaker 2: No mass layoffs, at least not yet announced formally by

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Speaker 2: the White House. That the intention has been displayed in

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Speaker 2: the memo that we've been talking about this week from

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Speaker 2: russ vote. Are you surprised we haven't heard from the President?

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Speaker 2: He's got nothing public on the schedule today. He could

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Speaker 2: own this little bit of a news vacuum that we

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Speaker 2: have on a Friday, couldn't he?

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Speaker 3: He absolutely could.

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Speaker 7: We saw him a little bit earlier to come, you know,

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Speaker 7: in the Truths and said, hey, he wants to have

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Speaker 7: this Gaza deal done by Sunday, but on shutdown he's

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Speaker 7: been keeping a little bit more of an arms length here.

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Speaker 7: You know, I think there's there's some risk you know,

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Speaker 7: particularly as he moves into you know, mass layoffs or

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Speaker 7: some of these funding cuts.

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Speaker 3: You know we saw with Doge job cuts were not popular.

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Speaker 3: So this is something that roasts Boat.

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Speaker 7: He's letting him kind of take the image as he

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Speaker 7: with does he let Elon Musk sort of be there.

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Speaker 3: You've also seen Jade.

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Speaker 7: Vance, the Vice President, who's really been out, you know,

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Speaker 7: after the meeting Monday at the White House with Congression leaders,

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Speaker 7: it was Vance out there talking to reporters at the

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Speaker 7: briefing earlier this week. Also Vance, he was on doing

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Speaker 7: the rounds of shows the morning after the shutdown took effect.

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Speaker 7: So you see Trump, you know, sort of recognize that

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Speaker 7: there may be a political risk here and wants to

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Speaker 7: put other people in those key spots.

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Speaker 2: I guess as the president of the Senate, there's something

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Speaker 2: to be said for that. And you know the line

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Speaker 2: from JD. Vance's I'll go up there to break a

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Speaker 2: tie as soon as you guys are ready.

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Speaker 5: Let me know.

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Speaker 3: Does that mean his star is rising at this moment?

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Speaker 7: This is certainly an opportunity for him to show that

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Speaker 7: he can lead. You know, Trump has not come out

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Speaker 7: and said yes, he is my handpicked successor. He's kind

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Speaker 7: of making vance work for it. That's what we're seeing here,

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Speaker 7: and a vance you know of stumbles and falls. This

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Speaker 7: could you know, be a data point that Trump then

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Speaker 7: uses when he, you know, in a couple of years

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Speaker 7: presumably is going to say here's here's my guy that

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Speaker 7: I want to be the candidate in twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: I mentioned we're going to talk to Todd Young next.

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Speaker 2: When these votes take place, where they look just like

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Speaker 2: the last one, or could we see a democrat or

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Speaker 2: to fall in the mix.

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Speaker 7: It's likely that we'll see those Democrats all move together

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Speaker 7: versus you know, having one or two and having it

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Speaker 7: be sort of a slow trickle.

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Speaker 3: You know, never say never.

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Speaker 7: The Senate is a crazy place and stuff happens last

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Speaker 7: minute all the time.

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Speaker 8: You know.

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Speaker 7: If we we'll start to know if there's going to

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Speaker 7: be some sort of jail break or a mini jail break,

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Speaker 7: if they keep this vote open for a long time,

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Speaker 7: if there's a bunch of action on the floor, if

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Speaker 7: senators are huddling, that's when we should all start to

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Speaker 7: get excited that there may be at least a little

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Speaker 7: bit of incremental movement.

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Speaker 3: Great to see you as always.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Lord Davison, steering our coverage here

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Speaker 2: in Washington in the midst of a government shutdown, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're on day three here ahead of the voting.

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Speaker 3: We are joined.

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Speaker 2: It's a pleasure to have Republican Senator Todd Young from Indiana,

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Speaker 2: whether it's just outside the Capitol before he heads back

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Speaker 2: inside the building to get involved here, it's a treat

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Speaker 2: to welcome the Senator to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Senator Young,

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Speaker 2: I've never had a chance to talk to you, and

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Speaker 2: I appreciate your joining our conversation today. I want to

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Speaker 2: point everybody before we get to all the politics here

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Speaker 2: a tweet that you put out there. The federal government

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Speaker 2: is currently shut down, you rope, but my team and

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Speaker 2: I are still working and available to hoosiers if you

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Speaker 2: have questions or need assistance. Our contact information is below.

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Speaker 2: So what extent, if at all, is this impacting constituent services?

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Speaker 3: Is your staff still intact.

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Speaker 9: We're still intact, Joe. We're still here to help Hoosiers

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Speaker 9: navigate what is unfortunately a manufactured chaos by the National

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Speaker 9: Democratic Party, and they're far left donors and supporters. Chuck

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Speaker 9: Schumer has decided to go with the far left on

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Speaker 9: this rather than with the American people. He wants to

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Speaker 9: shut down our federal government because he's mad at Donald Trump,

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Speaker 9: and he understands that so many other Democrats are mad

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Speaker 9: at Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: And so it's my job and the job of.

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Speaker 9: Other Republicans to explain to the American people that whatever

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Speaker 9: substantive issues the Democrats say that they want to work on,

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Speaker 9: those are best worked on when government is funded, when

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Speaker 9: government is still operating, and worked on through what we

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Speaker 9: call regular order, which is a structured conversation so that

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Speaker 9: we can work through substantive disagreements. This is always what

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Speaker 9: the Senate has done at its best moments. Unfortunately, this

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Speaker 9: is one of its worst moments in recent memory.

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Speaker 2: Well, god knows, we haven't seen actual regular order in

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Speaker 2: a long time. I'm still threatening to break out the

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Speaker 2: regular order t shirts one of these nasier senators. So

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Speaker 2: don't give us a reason, but I wonder I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you heard my conversation with Laura. We're hearing

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Speaker 2: from Democrats that the issue of Obamacare subsidies is not

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Speaker 2: an end of year issue, as the Speaker and John

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Speaker 2: Fune have said, but it's a now issue because the

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Speaker 2: open enrollment has begun, The notices are going on, and

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Speaker 2: people might drop off the roles if they think they

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Speaker 2: can't afford healthcare.

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Speaker 3: Is that a concern of yours.

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Speaker 5: Well, it absolutely is.

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Speaker 9: November first is to be precise when open enrollment begins,

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Speaker 9: So we really only have a few weeks here, and

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Speaker 9: realistically a couple of weeks because the insurance companies will

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Speaker 9: require a bit of time to prepare the new enrollment packages,

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Speaker 9: So a couple of weeks to make any sort of

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Speaker 9: substantive changes, the very changes that Democrats say they're shutting

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Speaker 9: down the government for. So if indeed this is really

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Speaker 9: why they want to shut down the government, let's come

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Speaker 9: to the table. Let's open up government as the polling

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Speaker 9: indicates the American people want, and let's deal with whatever

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Speaker 9: challenges we have.

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Speaker 2: Like adults, what's going to happen at the vote coming

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Speaker 2: up here? You're going to be on the floor in

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Speaker 2: a moment. Are you hearing from any of your Democratic

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Speaker 2: colleagues that they might join John Fetterman and others.

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Speaker 9: I'm not particularly optimistic. I think most of the predictions

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Speaker 9: are that the couple of brave Democrats who decided to

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Speaker 9: vote affirmatively to keep government open yesterday, their numbers won't

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Speaker 9: be increasing.

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Speaker 5: But I hope that's different.

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Speaker 9: I hope they continue to listen to their constituents. I

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Speaker 9: think your previous analysts assessment that it may take several

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Speaker 9: days before things change, and then they could change all

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Speaker 9: at once as probably accurate. In the meantime, myself and

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Speaker 9: others will be taking our case to the American people

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Speaker 9: that this is an entirely manufactured crisis.

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Speaker 5: It was brought to us by Chuck.

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Speaker 9: Schumer, and we have to return to a more orderly

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Speaker 9: form of government.

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Speaker 2: You worried about the potential for cuts that russ Vote

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Speaker 2: is talking about. The President's up with a video on

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Speaker 2: truth social that don't fear the Reaper. He's got russ

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Speaker 2: Vote up there with the SIF and the whole thing.

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Speaker 2: How concerned are you that you're going to see furloughs

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Speaker 2: turn into permanent layoffs in your state.

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Speaker 9: Well, listen, russ Vote and the President have made threats before.

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Speaker 9: I think they have to be taken seriously. All continue

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Speaker 9: to do my job, but know that we have some

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Speaker 9: strong personalities. And for those who have concerns about their threats.

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Speaker 9: If the government isn't opened. I think they should take

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Speaker 9: those concerns very seriously. I think Democrats, who have prided

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Speaker 9: themselves over the years as the part party of government,

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Speaker 9: should also take those concerns very seriously.

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Speaker 3: Is vote weaponizing the shutdown?

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Speaker 2: You could have this thing open, as we've established in

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Speaker 2: any number of days here with a deal. Why talk

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Speaker 2: about permanent layoffs and closing agencies now?

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Speaker 5: Now?

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Speaker 9: What the Democrats are effectively asking us to do is

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Speaker 9: to undo some common sensical changes that we made to

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Speaker 9: the one big, beautiful bill to our healthcare in this country.

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Speaker 9: I don't believe that Obamacare is structured in a thoughtful way.

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Speaker 9: I still believe that there are better ways to deliver

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Speaker 9: healthcare than through highly expensive Obamacare plans. So as it

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Speaker 9: relates to healthcare, I think we need to deal with

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Speaker 9: root causes. Therefore, I remained very much open to dialogue

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Speaker 9: with my Democrats about how we can come together and

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Speaker 9: affect those sorts of changes. But instead, what they've done

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Speaker 9: here is is they're trying to negotiate with Republicans and

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Speaker 9: with the American people effectively under duress. And that's a

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Speaker 9: president we don't want to be establishing.

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Speaker 2: We spent the last couple of evenings up in the

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Speaker 2: Senate Senator and spent some time with potential deal makers,

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Speaker 2: including Democratic Senator Jean Shaheen. We talked with Tom Cole

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Speaker 2: on the other side, are we going to see a

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Speaker 2: gang emerge here?

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Speaker 3: Maybe you were part.

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Speaker 2: Of some of these conversations on the floor, and I

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Speaker 2: realized we're not talking about anything led by Thoon or

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Speaker 2: the Speaker, but just some organic conversations that are taking

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Speaker 2: place between Republicans and Democrats to move the needle on this.

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Speaker 3: Is that how this ends?

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Speaker 9: Well, I listen, I'm here to make law. I'm here

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Speaker 9: to affect positive policy changes.

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Speaker 5: I share.

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Speaker 9: I guess you could say the president zeal for cutting

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Speaker 9: deals from time to time, but those have to be

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Speaker 9: good deals, and they have to be deals that are

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Speaker 9: arrived at under the right conditions. And what this shutdown

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Speaker 9: situation is all about is a manufactured crisis so that

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Speaker 9: Democrats can get more leverage over policy. And more importantly,

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Speaker 9: they want to send a message. They want to send

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Speaker 9: a message that they're fighting at a time when they

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Speaker 9: effectively have no power because the American people rejected their

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Speaker 9: platform and their candidates last election.

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Speaker 3: So you're going to go home this weekend. We understand.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you're literally going home, but you

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Speaker 2: won't be in session and voting this weekend. Is that

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Speaker 2: part of the strategy from Leader Thun here to let

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Speaker 2: people go home? Think about this maybe here from constituents,

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Speaker 2: what's going to take place Saturday and Sunday.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: I think what Leader Thun is recognizing is that this

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Speaker 9: is effectively in the hands of Chuck Schumer and his members,

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Speaker 9: and they're going to have to make a decision.

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Speaker 5: In the meantime. We could be observers of this farce and.

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Speaker 9: Stay around Capitol Hill all weekend as they try and

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Speaker 9: figure out how to restore some measure of order and

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Speaker 9: credibility to send it operations in the near term. But

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Speaker 9: we think they can make those decisions among their own

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Speaker 9: tribe on their own time. We're going to go out

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Speaker 9: and many of us go back to our states and

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Speaker 9: take care of other responsibilities.

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Speaker 2: There's a big story for us here today at Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: and that we do not have a jobs report because

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Speaker 2: of this shutdown. The BLS date is not out publicly here.

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Speaker 2: I know you're on the Finance Committee, and I'm wondering

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Speaker 2: how concerned you are about the interruption and data collection

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Speaker 2: and data posting. Here is Senator Elizabeth Warren, for instance,

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Speaker 2: is calling for the release of that data, saying, surely

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Speaker 2: it's been compiled, why can't.

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Speaker 3: We see it? Would you support releasing the jobs report?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that sounds reasonable to me.

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Speaker 9: A government, one of the important things we do to

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Speaker 9: ensure that our economy is able to run as smoothly

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Speaker 9: and as efficiently as possible is to produce data. For example,

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Speaker 9: we need to know that we're actually creating enough jobs

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Speaker 9: right now to keep up with the increase in the

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Speaker 9: labor force. So that's one of many things we need

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Speaker 9: to be looking at as people look to deploy capital

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Speaker 9: and make important business decisions. And I think all the

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Speaker 9: more reason that the Democrats should be opening up the

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Speaker 9: government so that that data can be out there.

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Speaker 3: I guess we're in for a delayed release here.

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Speaker 2: Lastly, Senator, and I appreciate all the time that you've

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Speaker 2: given us today. You're also on the Intel Committee. Right

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Speaker 2: before you joined US, Secretary Pete Hegseth told us that

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Speaker 2: the administration has struck and we see the video here.

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Speaker 2: The thing has totally destroyed another boat that they say

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Speaker 2: is being run by narco terrorists bringing drugs to America.

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Speaker 2: It took place right off the coast of Venezuela. Are

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Speaker 2: you comfortable with this continued action and would you support

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Speaker 2: strikes against cartels inside Venezuela.

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Speaker 9: I think Congress needs to get involved in this space.

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Speaker 9: I am a member of the Intelligence Committee. I was

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Speaker 9: formerly a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. That latter

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Speaker 9: committee has jurisdiction over our war powers. I would encourage

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Speaker 9: that committee to hold public hearings about this matter, and

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Speaker 9: if a vote is required, a vote to authorize military force,

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Speaker 9: that's something that falls within Congress's area of responsibility under

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Speaker 9: the Constitution. I've worked with Senator Kin, who's been perhaps

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Speaker 9: the most visible and thoughtful member on the Democratic side

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Speaker 9: as it relates to these matters, and I understand that

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Speaker 9: in coming days we will be voting on a war

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Speaker 9: powers resolution related to the first strike.

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Speaker 5: So let me be strong on this.

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Speaker 9: I think there's no more fundamental responsibility Congress has than

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Speaker 9: to make sure that their elected representatives can be held

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Speaker 9: accountable for our decisions to go to war.

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Speaker 2: Well, I know you're speaking as well as a marine

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Speaker 2: and a graduate of the United States Naval Academy.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for joining us today on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: That's Todd Young, the Republican from Indiana, and a pleasure

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Speaker 2: to have you here as part of our conversation today

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Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

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Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The sun is on the Capitol Dome, but not a

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Speaker 2: lot is going to happen under it. Well, they're going

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Speaker 2: to vote again. I mean, this is truly groundhog Day

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Speaker 2: at this point, and I guess there's some strategy behind it,

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Speaker 2: with John fun bringing the continuing resolutions, the D version,

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Speaker 2: the R version to the floor again knowing that they

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Speaker 2: will fail. And it's part of the point that he

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Speaker 2: has been making as we move along. Just to review,

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Speaker 2: by the way, what we heard from Jack Fitzpatrick, who's

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Speaker 2: a pretty balanced guy. Pressure, anger and resent. There's no

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Speaker 2: light at the end of the tunnel. If you are

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Speaker 2: already not feeling great about things, you've got Jack to

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Speaker 2: give you a reality check, and maybe Mora Gillespie will

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Speaker 2: give us one as well as we are joined in

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Speaker 2: a moment by the Republican strategist. Following a series of

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Speaker 2: conversations that we had this week in the Senate. By

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Speaker 2: the way, we're going back up there this evening and

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Speaker 2: we'll have the latest for you on what is going

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Speaker 2: to likely be the same story that these bills keep

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Speaker 2: failing and the government's going to go through the weekend closed.

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Speaker 2: I talked about it with Senator Republican Senator Kevin Kramer,

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Speaker 2: who invoked moral high.

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Speaker 3: Ground at this stage of the game. Here's what he said.

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Speaker 10: First of all, we're in such an odd position where

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Speaker 10: the Republicans actually have some moral high ground on the

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Speaker 10: government shutdown, which I've never seen in my life and

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Speaker 10: I've been here a while, and where Democrats are in

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Speaker 10: a more awkward position than they generally are to be fair,

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Speaker 10: because funding the government's not that hard generally for Democrats

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Speaker 10: to do. We have the Trump factor, you have, yes,

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Speaker 10: the far left factor with Senator Schumer, which is complicated

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Speaker 10: their situation a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit the gentleman from North Dakota pretty honest on that. Huh,

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Speaker 2: he's surprised to be sitting in this position where he

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Speaker 2: feels as a Republican like he has the moral high

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Speaker 2: ground and thus the standoff. Morgillespie's been through this from

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Speaker 2: inside the Speaker's office. Before you rewind to twenty eleven,

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Speaker 2: remember the Obamacare shutdown that was John Bahner's problem. Then,

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Speaker 2: of course it's Mike Johnson's problem now. But kind of

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Speaker 2: ironic that we're still chilling on this Obamacare thing around

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Speaker 2: a shutdown, isn't it. Mora is the founder of Bluestack

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Speaker 2: Strategies and joins us now live on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: It's great to have you back.

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Speaker 2: Mora is the senator right to Republicans have the moral

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Speaker 2: high ground.

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Speaker 8: Well, when you talk about the ACA, the Obamacare bill

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Speaker 8: and the messaging around it, yes, I mean the subsidiary

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Speaker 8: subjudies don't actually expire until the end of the year,

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Speaker 8: so kind of making this a this has to happen

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Speaker 8: now or millions of people will lose their healthcare today.

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Speaker 8: You know, they're making it seem so scary and so immediate,

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Speaker 8: and the facts are that the subsidies don't expire until

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Speaker 8: the end of the year. The subsidies are largely for

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Speaker 8: the insurance companies.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 8: So I think there's a bit of a messaging issue

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Speaker 8: for the Democrats because they know that, and Chuck Schumer

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Speaker 8: certainly knows that. But he's getting pressure from the people

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Speaker 8: from the far left of his flank, and because of

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Speaker 8: what happened in March, he had to make this stand

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Speaker 8: and he knows that it's not a winning strategy, but

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Speaker 8: it's what he has to do to maintain his leadership post.

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Speaker 2: What's your take on the way Speaker Johnson has comported himself,

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Speaker 2: because he certainly seems to be in lockstep with John

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Speaker 2: Thune and they are both in lockstep with the White

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Speaker 2: House on this. How important is that bicameral unity. Having

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Speaker 2: been in the Speaker's office in a situation like this yourself.

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Speaker 8: It's very important. It's also critical that they maintain a

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Speaker 8: level of seriousness. I was a little bit disappointed with

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Speaker 8: Speaker Johnson's press conference earlier where he said, you know,

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Speaker 8: they're just having fun over there, but this is it's

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Speaker 8: not a funny matter. Well, that's a very conflicting message

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Speaker 8: because it's not funny to check down the government and

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Speaker 8: to cost jobs and what's happening over at the White House.

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Speaker 3: While yes, the strategy.

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Speaker 8: Of being in lockstep about the plan about not negotiating

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Speaker 8: to have his clean cr go through and then have

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Speaker 8: conversations about things like the ACA subsidies, that's a separate matter.

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Speaker 3: But you know she performed.

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Speaker 8: I think that Fune or Johnson should be supportive of

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Speaker 8: what President Trump was doing on a social media accounts

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Speaker 8: and Jay Evan standing by the president. I don't think

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Speaker 8: that that's helpful. I think it's it's pretty egregious to

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Speaker 8: do so, and so policy wise, yes, they should be

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Speaker 8: in lockstep, but messaging wise, I'm concerned.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well that's a good answer.

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Speaker 2: It has been pretty wild watching the truth social feed

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Speaker 2: with the mariachi bands and the rest of it play

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Speaker 2: around Hakem Jeffries, who's been doing his own responding on

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Speaker 2: social media to JD Vance and others.

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Speaker 3: That's I guess, the noise around this whole situation.

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Speaker 2: How about the actual business with the White House threatening

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Speaker 2: mass layoffs now, I think you were referring to that

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Speaker 2: just now and also pulling infrastructure money from some blue

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00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 2: states to try to make a point, if you're the

445
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: Speaker of the House, do you have any input.

446
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,199
Speaker 3: On what money is doled out to?

447
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 2: Where should the president be talking with congressional leaders about this,

448
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 2: because it doesn't sound like he is.

449
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 8: I would say yes, but we're not in normal times

450
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 8: when we work with President Trump. But he doesn't operate

451
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 8: by the rules, and the reason being is that he

452
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 8: doesn't necessarily have to. Earlier this year, he scored a

453
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 8: very big win with Supreme Court giving him presidential immunity,

454
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 8: and he took that and thought, I can do whatever

455
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 8: I want, because in reality he kind of can. And

456
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson has lost a lot of the control that

457
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 8: he had when he got that gabble. He really gave

458
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 8: it over to President Trump. And you know, and a

459
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 8: lot of times we look at the Senate to kind of.

460
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 3: Be the adult in the room.

461
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 8: And I do have hope that John, Senator John Thune,

462
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 8: will you know, regain that responsibility and really hold firm

463
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 8: with it. I actually thought during this whole conversation about,

464
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 8: you know, the three things the Democrats went into the

465
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 8: shutdown or said that they wanted to avoid a shutdown,

466
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 8: you know, the Bamacare subsidies, the medicare issues in the

467
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 8: one maybe of a bill, and then the recisions issues

468
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,239
Speaker 8: with President Trump. The third one is probably what they

469
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 8: should have gone with, because I do think that the

470
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 8: Senators feel pretty strongly about their role and their responsibility

471
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 8: laid out in the Constitution and what their chamber is

472
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 8: supposed to be responsible for, and so they could have

473
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 8: had a bigger victory in that sense. But it doesn't

474
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 8: make me think back of twenty thirteen. You know, this

475
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 8: is almost in a flip way of when that shutdown

476
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 8: was happening. You know, Harry Reid lamented that he wanted

477
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 8: to clean cr President Obama refused to even talk to

478
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 8: Republicans because they were threatening the shutdown, and so he

479
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 8: refused to negotiate with the threat of the shutdown being there,

480
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 8: and refused to take any of their amendments or additions

481
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 8: or revisions into consideration until the shutdown was over. And

482
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 8: so I think Democrats know that, and if they look

483
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 8: back through history remember those times, they'll remember that that's

484
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 8: how it more or less worked.

485
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 3: Out, was through the Senate.

486
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 2: Fascinating we heard from Hakim Jeffreys this morning. He has

487
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: been out there to a limited extent, showed up on MSNBC.

488
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 3: Here's what the Democratic Leader of the House I'd to say.

489
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 11: Listen, we'll sit down in good faith. We need to

490
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,959
Speaker 11: reopen the government in this Trump Republican government shutdown, and

491
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 11: we can find a bipartisan path toward a spending agreement.

492
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 11: But that spending agreement has to actually meet the needs

493
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 11: of the American people in terms of their health, their safety,

494
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 11: and their economic well being, particularly as it relates to

495
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 11: driving down the high cost of living and lowering health

496
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 11: care costs as opposed to driving millions of Americans into

497
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 11: medical bankruptcy because of the Republicans were fusal so extend

498
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 11: the Affordable Care AC tax credits more.

499
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: I remember Speaker Bainer going head to head with Nancy

500
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 2: Pelosi and it was a clash of the Titans on

501
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 2: a pretty regular basis on Capitol Hill. How's this Democratic

502
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: leader doing in this stressful moment in dealing with Mike Johnson.

503
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 2: He's been at the White House once. It was the

504
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: only time he's met with Donald Trump. Should that meeting

505
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: happen again or doesn't it matter.

506
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 8: I don't know that it's going to necessarily change anything.

507
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 8: I do think that the Democrats and I knew this

508
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:33,959
Speaker 8: going into it. They didn't have a plan of how

509
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 8: to get out of it. Again, when you have a

510
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 8: president that doesn't necessarily care about what happens because he's

511
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 8: not impacted by any of it, how do you negotiat

512
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 8: with that? How do you negotiat with someone who does

513
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,919
Speaker 8: not see any issues with making a mockery of you

514
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 8: while people are genuinely hurting, while threatening to cut people

515
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 8: from the workforce, while relishing in that fact, and Speaker

516
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 8: Johnson can can say that Russbot and Donald Trump are

517
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 8: not enjoying this, that's inaccurate.

518
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 3: They restaurant has wanted to do this.

519
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 8: With the better part of a decade. And this demonizing

520
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 8: of the federal workforce I take great problem with because

521
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 8: it's not as though being, you know, part of the

522
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 8: federal government is.

523
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 3: This a glamorous job.

524
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 8: Also, the people who were working for these members, these

525
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 8: Senate leaders, Speaker Johnson, President Trump, they are federal workers,

526
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 8: and so we're remembering that they're not. They're the ones

527
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 8: who are going to hurt from this most immediately. But

528
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 8: the longer we keep this government shutdown going, the more

529
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 8: it trickles out into hurting every day Americans w you're traveling.

530
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 8: There's a whole host of things that we could go into.

531
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 8: But I just I think that they don't have a

532
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 8: plan to get out of it. And while their point

533
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 8: about the subsidies and the you know, the healthcare issues, listen, Obamacare,

534
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 8: it's not private system. It didn't work out the way

535
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 8: they hoped it was going to and that's the reality

536
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 8: we're facing. But constantly pushing things to the very end

537
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,360
Speaker 8: and to the deadlines has got us into these problems

538
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 8: more often over the last decade than they should have.

539
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 8: We just had members of Congress that actually wanted to

540
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 8: address these issues in a timelier fashion and not wait

541
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 8: until the lost minute when your box up against the wall.

542
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 8: Then we wouldn't be here. And I think that that's

543
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 8: what people should be really HARKing on. Is Okay, we

544
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 8: have how many weeks until the end of the year,

545
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 8: let's come up with a plan. Let's get out of

546
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 8: the shutdown and call up with a plan, start getting

547
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 8: to work.

548
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: I don't know if you've been to Sea Island Resort Moura,

549
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: but this weekend the NRSC has quite the retreat planned golf, pickleball, fishing, shooting, drinking, wine.

550
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 3: Should that be canceled? Would John Bayner have allowed that?

551
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 3: Did we lose moura? Oh my god? Was that convenient?

552
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 3: Saved by the internet?

553
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 2: Bell Let us know your thoughts via email.

554
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: Marc A.

555
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 2: Lesbie Bluestack Strategy. Somebody was is she at Sea Island Resort?

556
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 2: If you were with us on YouTube, it looked like

557
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 2: a pretty nice spot wherever she was. Maybe we can

558
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 2: do the show there. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. That's

559
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 2: kind of funny. I mean, what are you going to

560
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: do in live situation like this? Stay with us on

561
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

562
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

563
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,199
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

564
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

565
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

566
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

567
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: Day three of the government shutdown, and just moments from now,

568
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 2: it looks like we're going to get our first vote.

569
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 3: There's a live view of the Senate floor.

570
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: If you were with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube.

571
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: Everyone seems to know how this is going to end.

572
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: They expect the vote to be just the same as

573
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 2: it was two days ago. Not enough Democrats on board,

574
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: so it will fail. Then they go home for the weekend,

575
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 2: knowing that that was a late decision here this week

576
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 2: by Leader Thun, the Republican leader in the Senate. Send

577
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 2: everybody home, let them stew let them hear from constituents.

578
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 2: Think about what you've done here. We talked about this

579
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 2: a couple of nights ago, as we've been in the

580
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: Senate over the course of this week talking with members

581
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 2: about their decisions. Kevin Kramer, the Senator from North Dakota,

582
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 2: invoking the moral high grounds.

583
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 3: When it comes to this standoff. Listen to what he said.

584
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 10: First of all, we're in such an odd position where

585
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 10: the Republicans actually have some moral high ground on the

586
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 10: government shutdown, which I've never seen in my life, and

587
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 10: I've been here a while, and where Democrats are in

588
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 10: a more awkward position than they generally are to be fair,

589
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 10: because funding the government's not that hard generally for Democrats

590
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 10: to do. But we have the Trump factor. You have, yes,

591
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 10: the far left factor with Senator Schumer, which is complicated.

592
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 10: Their situation a little bit.

593
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: That was Wednesday. Yeah, nothing's changed since then. Here we

594
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: are on Friday, and it's kind of interesting. I didn't

595
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: know this one. I woke up this morning, but the

596
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: man who's about to join us just reminded me of

597
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 2: what today is. If you want to just connect all

598
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 2: the dots on passing or not passing a CR.

599
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 3: In this case of Biden CR.

600
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: It was the third of October I believe two years

601
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 2: ago Patrick McHenry that the Speaker of the House was dispatched.

602
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,239
Speaker 3: That was a day that changed your life. It was.

603
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 12: I was reminded. Speaker McCarthy called me as I was

604
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 12: coming into the studio today, say you know what this is,

605
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 12: and look, that's what it is.

606
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 5: I'm not.

607
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 3: As angry as I was that day.

608
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 12: But you know, Speaker McCarthy has has done quite well

609
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 12: since leaving Congress.

610
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: He's working in the business community. He's got a fabulous life, and.

611
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 12: It remains a dear friend even even despite the fact that.

612
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 3: They're going to keep this.

613
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 2: This is where cc has invoked the video from October

614
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: third of Chairman then Speaker pro Tem McHenry taking it

615
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: all out on that cavel.

616
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 3: Is two years ago.

617
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 12: And McCarthy was vacated by a small group of people

618
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 12: led by Matt Gates, small group of Republicans because he

619
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 12: had passed a clean continued resolution.

620
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 3: Here we are again.

621
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 12: Here we are tiers ahead, and it's Republicans of the

622
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 12: Responsible Party passing a clean continued resolution. The dynamics are

623
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 12: so shifted on this, and today's a fascinating day. So

624
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 12: we're going to continue to watch the Senate the action

625
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 12: on Capitol Hills. On the Senate side, the House did

626
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 12: its job, they passed clean continued resolution. The Senate is

627
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 12: going to just wrestle with a date change and continue.

628
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 3: To vote on this. And Leader Soon, i think, is

629
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 3: doing a masterful job of.

630
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 12: Being disciplined as leader and just saying, well, you're going

631
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 12: to be accountable on a regular basis, multiple times a

632
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 12: week for your words and your actions.

633
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 3: To his Democratic colleagues.

634
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 12: Chuck Schumer and a large enough group to pass it

635
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 12: on the Democratic side voted for this same policy back

636
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 12: in March. Because of the flac that Leader Schumer got,

637
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 12: in particular from his Democratic base, he was in a

638
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 12: political box. Leader Jeffries has a very different set of circumstances.

639
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 3: He just wants to.

640
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 12: Become Speaker of the House, and as minority leader, that's

641
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 12: kind of your obligation. Get the majority so you can

642
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 12: be relevant. The House is not a relevant thing in

643
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 12: this conversation. Action is in the Senate on how the

644
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 12: reopening occurs because of the filibuster, and so the filibuster

645
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 12: is the vote that.

646
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 3: They're trying to break right now.

647
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 12: I think sixty votes for that, and they need a

648
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 12: few more Democrats to participate in it. But this is

649
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 12: playing out in a very very bizarre and different way

650
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 12: than previous shutdowns. Its seemingly, you know, it hasn't had

651
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 12: a dramatic effect here in DC.

652
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 3: It seems like it's much to do about nothing.

653
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 12: Now it's kind of playing out in the body of politic,

654
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 12: which is different than previous shutdown.

655
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: It does feel different. And I will note for the record,

656
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 2: Patrick McHenry said, the last time you were here, when

657
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 2: we said just wait for October chaos, you said, you

658
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 2: have no idea the insanity that we're in for. And

659
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 2: here we are, and that begs the question are there

660
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 2: off ramps? Are we doing this?

661
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: For weeks we.

662
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 2: Talked to Jean Shaheen and some other potential deal makers

663
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: and I know that the House isn't in the mix

664
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: right now. But we talked to Tom Cole as well,

665
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 2: and I say, like, we're ready to make a deal,

666
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: we're talking. We're actually not that far apart. Do you

667
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 2: see it that way?

668
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 3: Well, these are very informal. These are informal talks, not

669
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 3: led by the lease. This is on the floor, Yeah,

670
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 3: this is.

671
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 12: You know, you see Akeem Jeffries having a press conference

672
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 12: yesterday saying nobody's called him right, which shows he's not

673
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 12: relevant to the conversations.

674
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 3: Then you see the pack of senators.

675
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 12: I think the interesting action is going to be watching

676
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 12: the senators have conversations on the Senate floor.

677
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 8: Yep.

678
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 12: There are a couple things that are true. One is

679
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 12: I think you will have a clean reopen vote. I

680
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 12: think that will be the case. I think the end

681
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 12: of this is democratic submission to reopen the government. Then

682
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 12: I think there is willing to between some Republicans and

683
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 12: the White House to extend for a period of time

684
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 12: some of the Obamacare provisions that will expire at the

685
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 12: end of this year, but not the full policy.

686
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 3: I think that's the end point. Still, that was actually

687
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 3: going to.

688
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 12: Be the case, regardless of the shutdown is that there's

689
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 12: a reasonableness component within the White House and among Congression

690
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 12: Republicans that an extension of these substats for another year

691
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 12: makes a lot of sense. And that's the Democratic ask,

692
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 12: along with a bunch of other things they've added to

693
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 12: the list which don't quite fit. But I think there

694
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 12: is a modest deal to be had post reopen. Even

695
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 12: if they didn't have the government shutdown, that would be

696
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 12: the end state for the end of the year. So

697
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 12: how do you get to the deal then? If they

698
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,959
Speaker 12: need the deal to reopen them mission submission, and how

699
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 12: do you give it a submission?

700
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 3: Pain? Pain? Pain?

701
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 12: What does that look like? Well, it looks like pain

702
00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 12: on federal employees. I think Russ Vote has a plan

703
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:05,959
Speaker 12: of action that is intense and intensely painful for Democratic

704
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 12: senators in particular and Democratic constituencies. He has enormous power

705
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 12: as OMB director and he's going to use it.

706
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: So that's not just a threat. Oh no, it's not

707
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 3: cuts are coming.

708
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 12: It's it's real, and he has an active imagination and

709
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 12: massive power and together, I think he's going to do

710
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 12: things different going into next week that are different than

711
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:27,919
Speaker 12: this week.

712
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 2: You see, the rest vote is the reaper video was passing.

713
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: The President posted last night he's got the big cloak

714
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 2: and the sith and he's doesn't look like that's something

715
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 2: that no.

716
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 12: I mean, the memes, the memes are amazing, completely amazing

717
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,399
Speaker 12: of this fight, which takes it to an Internet level

718
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:46,760
Speaker 12: of craziness and zaniens.

719
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: Oh gosh.

720
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 12: But but all that, all that is to say, the

721
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 12: democratic democratic constituencies are going to feel pain and Democrat

722
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 12: politicians are going to feel pain in order to to

723
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 12: the table.

724
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:02,720
Speaker 3: To have a clean reopen vote.

725
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 12: That's what happened in twenty thirteen when Republicans shut down

726
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 12: the government over what healthcare, over Obamacare, and here we

727
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 12: are a lot of amazing twelve years later, same issues

728
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 12: set flipped constituencies.

729
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 2: It's a really bizarre thing happening, right, So why wait

730
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 2: on the cuts then? Or is John Thune are the

731
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 2: leaders saying, hey, give us a minute, White House, because

732
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,439
Speaker 2: this isn't going to help anybody. If we do see

733
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 2: furloughs turned into layoffs, does that make the trust quotient

734
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: even worse?

735
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 3: I think so.

736
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 12: But it also is a rationing effect of pain, all right.

737
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 12: And frankly, a couple of things that I think are

738
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 12: interesting here. One is the power dynamic and Capitol Hill

739
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 12: between Schumer and Jeffreys and how that plays out. The

740
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 12: second piece is omb and I think that's a substantial

741
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 12: piece of action and activity.

742
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:52,840
Speaker 3: And then.

743
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 12: And then the political calculus by the White House on

744
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 12: the ways that they can execute pain on the Democratic opposition.

745
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 12: Those are the things we're going to see play out.

746
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 12: And now they're going to ratchet down the impact on

747
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 12: Democrats on Capitol Hill, Democratic Center.

748
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 2: We're seeing some cuts already in terms of funding for

749
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: blue states. You saw the transit money for Chicago, New York.

750
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 2: I saw the billions of dollars. Tom Tillis, who you

751
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: know well from North Carolina, Senator said earlier to Bloomberg,

752
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: I think that digs us into a deeper hole. I

753
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 2: think if you do that, you're going to create a

754
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 2: bad faith environment. They need to be very judicious.

755
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 3: Would you agree they need to be judicious?

756
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 12: But the Democrats have made a choice here, and what

757
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,280
Speaker 12: they have done is argue for years that Donald Trump

758
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 12: is an authoritarian and you will seek to claim power

759
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 12: and not respect checks and balances. A government shutdown under

760
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 12: operation of law gives enormous authority to the director of

761
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 12: Ombes to carry out wide ranging policy decisions, and the

762
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 12: law is either on the side of the actor or silent,

763
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 12: and in that silence, they're going to fill the void.

764
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 12: So my Democratic friends are saying an authoritarian and they're

765
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 12: taking actions to give him more enhanced power over the

766
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 12: federal of the federal workforce and the size and scope

767
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 12: of government. It's an extraordinary thing that I don't think

768
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 12: they've quite thought through. And I think next week you'll

769
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 12: you'll see this discuss more on the Democratic side.

770
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: Okay, So that sounds then like you see light at

771
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 2: the end of the tunnel. If they're having that conversation

772
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 2: next week, are we reopened the week later?

773
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 12: The light at the end of the tunnel could also

774
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,720
Speaker 12: be a train. So it's very careful about this the government.

775
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 12: The way these things, the shutdowns work is that you

776
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 12: know it could it could end today, it could end

777
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 12: in this vote series on Capitol Hill today, and we're

778
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 12: gonna have to wait to follow us day by day,

779
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 12: hour by hour because it is that fluid and could

780
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 12: end Monday, it could be thank and yeah, it's his wide.

781
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 3: Range as wow, So you're not going to try to

782
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 3: predict anything.

783
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 5: Here.

784
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 2: What do you think of the Republican line that we

785
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: keep hearing that this is all about, and you.

786
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 3: Walked right up to it.

787
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer afraid to be primary by AOCS, so you

788
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 2: can fit it on a bumper sticker. I hear it

789
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 2: from almost every Republican lawmaker that we talked to, and

790
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 2: most of them don't know Chuck Schumer very well.

791
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 3: Is that just an easy story to tell or is

792
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 3: that what's.

793
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 5: Going on here?

794
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 12: I think there's a serious story to tell on that matter.

795
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 12: And we saw how bludgeoned Schumer was coming out of March.

796
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,439
Speaker 3: We saw the flak that he took a lot of people,

797
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 3: saw a shutdown.

798
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 12: We saw the difference between Keem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer

799
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 12: in that moment that divide and they live like a

800
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 12: burrow apart, right, an odd thing for them to be separate.

801
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 12: Then we see them linked hand in hand with this

802
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 12: shutdown now, and you think, well, I think that shows

803
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 12: that Schumer is capitulated.

804
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 3: The challenge here, though, is.

805
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 12: That Keem Jeffries does not need to be a part

806
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 12: of any of the deal making to reopen the government.

807
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, doesn't have to.

808
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 12: You saw Speaker Johnson and the leadership team in the

809
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 12: House produce a continued resolution without without democratic without the

810
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 12: need for democratic votes in the Senate because the filibuster,

811
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 12: Schumer is going to have to participate in that. So

812
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 12: at the end of the day, it's not going to

813
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 12: be a good outcome for him. He's picked a fight

814
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 12: that he cannot win with his Democratic base, which is

815
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 12: I think a political mistake on his part.

816
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: This is why the clock is going to be sick.

817
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 2: And how do you peel off a couple of more Democrats?

818
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 2: We've already seen three roll over here, Angus King of

819
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 2: caucuses with Democrats part of the group, you don't need

820
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: that many more, and then you don't have to make

821
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 2: a deal to reopen the government. Is that possible because

822
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 2: John Thune have the skill?

823
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 12: No, John Thune has the skill, and he's got the

824
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 12: discipline he is He and his leadership team have hadn

825
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,959
Speaker 12: enormous discipline and not taking the Democratic bait and also

826
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 12: going out messaging, continue to talk in a very disciplined way.

827
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 3: Should meet with Juck Schumer. There's no need to, no

828
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 3: need to, no good politics though, just for the picture.

829
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 12: Nope, no, no, because at that point the only way

830
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 12: you get out of the shutdown is the way Republicans

831
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 12: got out of the shutdown with Obama in twenty thirteen,

832
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 12: which is a great to reopen the government and then

833
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 12: you negotiate thereafter. What happened in twenty thirteen after that

834
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 12: we reopened government. They were modest but significant changes to

835
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 12: obama Care as a direct impact, but that was separating

836
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 12: time optically from the shutdown, and that was the only

837
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 12: way you could have the conversation.

838
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 3: We're in a similar situation here. We've got less than

839
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 3: a minute, is Kevin Kramer right?

840
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: You've got moral high ground, which isn't always the case

841
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 2: for Republicans on a shutdown.

842
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 3: Everyone thinks they're winning. They sure do.

843
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,720
Speaker 12: This is the reason why the shutdown is so different.

844
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 12: My Democratic friends think that they have the high moral ground.

845
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 12: My Republican friends, they think they have the high moral ground.

846
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 12: We will see who wins in this thing. But it's

847
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 12: more of a wrestling match for submission, yeah right, and

848
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 12: down for the count's.

849
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 2: That doesn't make you feel like this is a moral debate.

850
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 2: He told us this was going to happen. Patrick McHenry,

851
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 2: former Speaker pro Tem, the former Chairman House Financial services

852
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 2: now Bloomberg Politics contributor. Happy anniversary. It's great to have

853
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 2: you back here on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is

854
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

855
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

856
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,439
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857
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,319
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858
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.