WEBVTT - Nate Silver: Poll Whisperer 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:11.240 Hi, Brian, Hi Katie. Today our podcast is Bicoastal. Brian 0:00:11.400 --> 0:00:14.520 is in California. I am in New York. You probably 0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:18.279 are very well aware that the two thousand and sixteen 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:25.720 presidential election is less than a week away. I'm sure 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:29.040 that's probably how you feel. Brian is the only person 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.200 I think on the planet who's going to be sad, well, 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.480 maybe a couple of cable networks as well to see 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:40.440 this election come to a close. Are you having withdrawals yet? Brian? No, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:42.960 I'm just trying to enjoy it. Well at last, it's 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:46.040 like burning Man for me. I think, oh, yeah, you're 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:48.760 such a Bernie Man guy. By the way, I mean, 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.960 there's been plenty to keep us busy when it comes 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:55.760 to talking about all things political. So much has happened. 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:58.640 I think we could change the lyrics of the September 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:03.160 song to the November song. Brian, don't you I feel 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:06.319 like this is your queue. Oh it's a long, long 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:12.200 while from me to November. I was right about that. 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:15.360 I like that it was nice Bobrado, But so much 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:18.080 has happened. I mean, it's really hard to keep all 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:21.640 this straight, isn't it. Well, there's a rich history of 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:26.280 October surprises in American politics. You go back to eight 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.160 there was a bombing halt in North Vietnam, which was 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:34.080 supposed to help then Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey. In seventy two, 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:38.120 Henry Kissinger said pieces at hand, also in Vietnam, and 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:43.360 that supposedly helped Nixon into The former Reagan Defense secretary 0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:46.679 was indicted, which supposedly hurt George H. W. Bush. There 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:49.280 are a lot of examples of this. Shall answer man, 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:53.240 what happened in for crying out loud? What was a 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:59.400 internal action? Sorry, of course it was scratch that you 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:04.560 want to talk about at the McKinley ray. But but 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:08.720 I think what's interesting about all of these October surprises, 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.400 from Bush's d w I to the bin Laden tape 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:15.079 to Hurricane Sandy, just to deploy a few more, is 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:19.200 we're unsure about what the electoral impact is. It's very 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:23.480 hard to prove causation, and so we really don't know. 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.799 To use a phrase that's not often used by the media, 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.520 we really don't know what this means. And you know, 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:31.399 we're gonna have to wait and see what somebody who 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:35.400 probably has a good idea is Nate Silver he's become 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:40.120 almost a godlike figure for political junkies. Has any Brian? 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.040 He is, he is a god among geeks and I 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:48.720 include myself proudly in that category. Uh. He's he's invented 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:52.119 a whole new category really of journalism in which he 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:56.640 uses analytics and statistical models to put pulling into this 0:02:56.680 --> 0:03:00.400 big machine that he's created and hopefully push wisdom out 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.320 that will give us a little bit of a better 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.679 sense about where the race actually stands. And you are 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:09.680 so excited that he's our guests on today's podcast, aren't you? Brian? 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:14.760 I am all a flutter, even from three thousand miles away. 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.080 I need silver welcome. It is so great to have 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.480 you cool, Thank you for having me, Katie. First, we 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.160 have to start out with comy Gate. Yeah, how big 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.480 a bombshell or how big an impact do you think 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:28.680 this is going to have on the election? So it's 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:29.959 a little hard to tell, which is none of a 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:33.680 very satisfying answer. Um, we began to detect another people 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:37.360 who average poles begin to detect some momentum back toward 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:39.880 Trump about a week ago, a week and a half 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.680 ago or so, um, where he had had a very 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:46.560 very bad string of events with three debates that he 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:51.280 was judged to have lost. UM, the UH, the access 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.400 Hollywood tape I'm never quite sure how to refer to 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.600 the P word tape. UM. And then all these accusations 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:59.440 were women that he had sexually assaulted them, and it 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:02.520 was about is a bad um a three weeks as 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.400 a candic can have. UM. I'm not saying any of 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:08.560 it isn't his fault, right, but you know, sometimes when 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.200 you go from a terrible news cycle to a better 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:14.240 new cycle, you begin to rebound just because your own 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:16.400 base begins to come home to you. So we began 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:19.800 to see Trump's numbers begin to go up, not by 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.159 leaps and bounds, but a little bit um as you 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.880 regain Republican votes. UM. And then you had Friday when 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:27.800 you have this FBI news another story. I'm not quite 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:30.560 sure how to characterize it exactly, but comy, we'll call 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:34.479 it UM. And we've seen some further tightening since then, 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:36.760 although it's not clear whether that was already baked dinner 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:40.599 because of of Comy. My impression is that UM. Trump 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:42.880 had gained one or two points on Clinton over the 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.840 past two weeks and maybe gained another point or so 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:50.279 UM over the weekend. And when you describe the tightening, Nate, 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.560 just to be clear, are you talking about Hillary going 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:55.920 down at all or is it just Trump coming up 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:58.640 with core Republican voter. That's it's the latter. We know 0:04:58.680 --> 0:05:01.080 Trump's coming up. How much that is for publicans versus independence, 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:04.120 Probably a mix of both. But she's in national polls 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:09.080 she has stayed at about UM and Trump's gone from 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.720 now forty one or so, so he's regained some ground 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:18.120 on Clinton UM. But you know, forty one percent not 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:20.520 enough to win. For that matter, forty six percent is 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:22.680 not quite enough. So it's kind of like, you know, 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:25.320 if she gets another point or two out of her 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.600 base gets up to forty seven, she gets to be 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.599 in a pretty safe position. If she gets stuck, she's 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:33.920 probably a favorite, but it'll be more suspense on election day. 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:37.839 And if she declines, then things are really competitive. And 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:41.000 there's I guess some speculation, isn't there, that that there 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.000 may be something brewing at the FBI, some kind of 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:47.520 investigation involving Donald Trump, and the Democrats would like nothing 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:51.719 more than have that get leaked to say we'll wait 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.560 a second. They may be looking at these emails on 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:59.000 Anthony Wiener's device. That sounded dirty. I'm so sorry, but 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:04.360 they're also teen at potential bad behavior on the part 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:08.040 of Donald Trump, the Russian government and the hacking of emails. 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.800 Right well, Trump creates problem by Thursday, we should know, 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.040 I mean, incidentally, we should point out to the listeners 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:15.880 that were recording this on Monday, were in the time machine, 0:06:15.960 --> 0:06:18.599 and when people hear this on Thursday, you know, we 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:21.039 could have like three or four front page New York 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:24.080 Times scandals between now and that's. I mean, it had 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:27.839 been this kind of oddly anticlimactic finish before the comy 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.640 thing struck. You know, the debates kind of inted early 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:32.480 this year, and it's been a long campaign, so I 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.240 think that's part of why people jumped on it. They 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:37.000 kind of proclaimed it to be a huge game changer, 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:40.120 um before people have seen any evidence for really what 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.440 it was or how it would move the polls. How 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.240 responsible do you think the media is for jenning this up? 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:48.120 I know you tweeted quote. The FBI story also broke 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:50.440 at the exact time when the media was eager for 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:55.040 a dramatic twist slash complication in the Clinton Coast narrative. 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:59.279 I mean, so to give a counterexample, think about Wiki leaks, 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:02.560 and that's never really broken through and been the main story, 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:05.600 in part because that was, um, We're all coming out 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:07.760 at the time that Trump was making a lot of news, 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.920 and by the time that Trump quieted down, Wiki leaks 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:13.880 was old news. So I do think the timing matters 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:18.320 a lot. Julian was probably so pistol and if he 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.680 releases in the primaries where you'd have more um, inter 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:25.600 party warfare, and that might have been more devastating for Clinton. UM. 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.920 But you know, I do have the sense that, um, look, 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:32.960 the media has incentives to to play up how competitive 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.920 the races. Trumpet had a very difficult for your weeks. 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.520 They were working the rests a lot, and I do 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.120 think that, um. And by the way, is also though 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:46.320 that you had this very exciting, devastating, impactful bulletin right 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:48.360 and then it didn't really live up to the billing, 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:51.560 and so people are are hesitant to adjust for that sometimes. 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.680 But it is interesting Clinton decided I'm not gonna go 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.040 after the media. I'm gonna go after Comey himself. If 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:58.160 it were a Republican, they would say, oh my god, 0:07:58.200 --> 0:07:59.720 you made his guys made something out of nothing, and 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:01.960 you've got headline wrong on this and that. But Democrats 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:03.920 don't attack the media in the way that Republicans often 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:06.600 very effectively due to rile up their base. But Brian 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:08.920 and Nate, I mean, don't you think it's so strange 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.280 that there will not be any kind of resolution to 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:16.080 this whole quote unquote crisis before the election. I mean, 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:19.160 it's it's what they're There are hundreds of thousands of 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:23.400 emails or thousands anyway, I guess sid and all, but 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.400 a lot of those are Anthony Weiner's emails, right, Brian, 0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:30.160 So what kind of impact I'm interested from you? Brian 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:34.200 n Nate? Does this kind of dark cloud have hanging 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:37.240 over Hillary Clinton's head? Are people going to dismiss it 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:42.080 and say it's a much ado about nothing? Well, we'll see. 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.200 I mean, there's been some reporting that the FBI would 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.920 try to make some characterization like, oh, there's something new 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.280 here or there's not right. What's too late for that? Though? 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:52.960 Maybe if there's day Friday, they can If they said 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:55.360 that Monday morning or Tuesday morning, right while people are 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:58.000 are voting, how does that affect things potentially? And by 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.400 the way, um, you know, a lot of people in 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:02.600 the country have voted. About a quarter of the vote 0:09:02.679 --> 0:09:05.800 roughly is in in swing states with early voting, their 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:10.040 states like Nevada, where substantial numbers, maybe more than half 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:12.400 the vote will be done before election day, and so 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.160 you know the election is already underway. Now I've heard 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.880 that that is good news for Hillary Clinton in terms 0:09:17.920 --> 0:09:20.520 of the way early voting is shaping up in states 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:23.880 like Florida. What are you sort of postulating from those 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:27.920 early voting returns. So it's a little tricky because Democrats 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:30.240 usually put a bigger emphasis on early voting But the 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.439 two states where her numbers look good are North Carolina 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:38.040 and Nevada. Um. North Carolina registration is by party Idiana 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:40.800 Nevada for that matter. UM. And so you see not 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:43.160 necessarily the African American turnout that Obama had, but you 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:47.240 see big support from highly educated white people, which in 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:48.839 North Carolina you actually have quite a few of in 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:53.079 the research triangle and Charlotte and whatnot, and they're turning out. Um, 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.760 we presume for Clinton in big numbers. UM. And Nevada 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.760 is a case where it's a low turnout state. If 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:01.760 you have a ground game the other can it does not, 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:05.480 then that's a big advantage when we should say Republicans 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.360 have a history of showing up in much larger numbers 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:12.400 on election day and making up deficits with early voting. 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.840 So it's not clear yet that there isn't gonna be 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:18.320 a huge Trump turnout on November eight, right, Um, But 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.800 it does mean that if you hear about a low turnout, 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:23.760 usually think of Democrats want to hire turn out. Right? 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.000 It could be that if you have a lower turnout 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.720 in some states on November eighth, then you know that 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:30.360 Democrats have already banked a lot of votes there for 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.880 the higher proportion of the vote, And so you know 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.520 which can you wants to hear reports of higher turnouts? 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.680 A little bit unclear this time around? Can I ask 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:40.720 a stupid question? When it comes to early voting. They 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:44.319 don't get counted until after election day, do they? So 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:48.000 what many states do is they'll report statistics by party 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.520 I D. So we know, for example that um, something 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:55.240 like forty thou more Democrats and Republicans have voted as 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:57.560 of Sunday in Clark County, Nevada. That Nember might be wrong, 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.800 but somewhere in that ballpark right. Um. Either way, people 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:03.439 in Nevada get very pissed when you call it Nevada. 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.280 He said, well, well, Nate said Nevada first, and then 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:11.400 I was like, you go, Nate, and Donald Trump says Nevada. 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.720 But the only possible thing I could teach you today 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.560 that you don't already know, but half my families from there, 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.480 and they hate Nevada. I don't know why. Let's call 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:26.080 the whole thing off. Brian, you know Savada and I 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:30.199 say Nevada. The word for a person from Utah is 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:33.679 a Utah, not a Utah. And oh I didn't know people. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:39.920 They both sound strange syllables. See I learned something today 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:42.880 from Nate. Did you know that I did not? I 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:47.520 got us off. Let's talk about undecided voters because Brian 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:49.240 and I talked about this and we're like, who the 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.600 hell is undecided at this point in this crazy election? 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.120 Could there really be people who are saying Hillary Clinton 0:11:56.160 --> 0:12:01.280 Donald Trump, which one? I love them both, right? Or 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:06.640 are the undecided really choosing between Trump or a third party, 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:09.920 or Hillary Clinton or staying at home? I mean, what 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:13.120 do we know about the pool of undecided? So we 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:17.240 know that there are people who mostly like President Obama, 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:19.640 but I think the country is on the wrong track, 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.599 which is a weird set of circumstances. We know that 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.000 people who mostly dislike both candidates, there aren't a lot 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.600 of people who love their choices. Um. To me, these 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.200 feel like people who might wind up staying at home 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:35.000 and and sitting out. UM. The only silver lining to 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.319 the Clinton campaign from comy gate is that I'm sure 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.880 they're pretty happy that they people feel the election is 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:44.439 compative enough that their vote matters, because you always worry 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.840 about complacency and election where there's a lot of uncertainty 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.600 and there are a lot of undecided That's how Trump wins. Right. 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:55.600 If Trump's undecideds come out and Clinton's don't, um, then 0:12:55.600 --> 0:13:00.120 he has a path. It's so much about turnout, isn't it. Um. 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.760 Some states it matters more than others. I mean, if 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:04.680 you have early voting in a state, in some ways 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:08.200 there's more opportunity to take advantage of it. The ground 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.600 game probably matters more in a state like Pennsylvania where 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.880 you know who your voters are and it's just smarrogating 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:15.679 them to turn out. Then in a state like New 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:17.280 Hampshire where there are a lot of swing voters. That's 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:21.880 a persuasion state. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, these are states where Ohio, 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.360 these are states where it's a turnout state. Well, when 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:27.960 we come back, we're going to talk about what makes 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:32.559 Nate silver tick or analyze or I don't know what 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.480 it is you do exactly, what would you say curate? 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.440 I mean, yeah, I don't know, report, I guess in 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.960 a weird way. And and also I want to talk 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:45.280 to you more about polling and how reliable it is 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.840 and when it's been wrong and if it could be 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.240 wrong this go round. So we'll do that right after this. 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.920 So we asked, and you all very nicely answered. We 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.000 asked how you're coping in these final days of this 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:13.040 insane election cycle. Hi, Katie, this is Shelley Davy. How 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:17.920 I've been managing to cope through this election season is 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.520 to use them as teachable moments for my thirteen year 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.480 old and my ten year old. There's plenty of good 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:29.080 examples and bad examples to choose from, and with my 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:33.640 thirteen year old in particular, we now have a new statement. 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:39.240 If behavior is going badly, we say, don't be a 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:43.080 Donald Trump. And it usually stops him in his tracks. 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:47.240 Thanks for your show. Bye Wow. Oh gosh, that's a 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:51.160 sad commentary, isn't it, Brian? It is it is, and 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.920 we hope that some Trump supporters will call in and 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.080 let us know how they're teaching their children as well. Meanwhile, 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:02.680 we have another caller. Hello. My name is Madeline ben Kane, 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:07.400 and you asked about coping mechanisms for surviving the election. 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:11.440 What I do is write political limericks. Here's a sample. 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:15.360 It's cool going to town about the election. This election 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:19.080 is nearing its end. None to shoot. I've gone plunged 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:22.120 round the bend. I can't handle more. Gie. If my 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.120 mind's taken a dive, it needs Hillary's village to mend. 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.840 Thanks very much. I've been enjoying your podcast. Take care 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:35.480 bye bye. Quite a poet. I like limericks. That's very funny, 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.040 and that's actually a nice way to let off steam. Brian, 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:41.240 what have you been doing? Have you been doing anything 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:45.360 to kind of disconnect from all of this stuff? I 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:48.680 listened to podcasts about the election to disconnect from the 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:53.800 election generally. Nate Silver, it's always great to talk to you. 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:56.120 Do you feel like a rock star because all my 0:15:56.160 --> 0:16:00.440 friends say, Nate Silver says, well, I've had Nate Silver. 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.720 I mean, they drop your name like it's going out 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:06.520 of style, just having funny to you. It's weird. I mean, 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:08.800 you know, it happens once every four years, then a 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.480 very small spike around the mid term before we talk 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.320 more about this crazy campaign. By the way, do you 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:17.280 feel like that's all you can talk about? And do 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.040 you wonder what you're going to start talking about on 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:23.160 November nine? I mean, I found some Frequent Flower Award 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.560 tickets to Italy And are you going to go away? Yeah, 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.200 I mean not right away, because there's a lot of 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:32.040 risk of their being after math. I mean, just think 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.760 of all the scenarios between recounts. And by the way, 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:36.840 the senate's really close now too, and so you could 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.320 have a recount in a Senate race that matters between 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:42.000 I hope not, but civil unrest between an electoral college 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:45.040 popular route split, which is a likelier outcome than people 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:49.680 might think. Um, so you know, and just if Trump loses, 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.320 does he concede? If Trump wins, how is the country react? 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:57.120 I mean, yeah, but no, I mean it makes me 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:59.480 exhausted just thinking about it. Now. That's to dinner, and 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.920 the other table near me was talking about how Maine 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.600 in Nebraska they're not my friends, right, split their votes 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.440 by congressional district, and so people are it's very hard 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.800 to get away from the election. Um let's talk. Let's 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.840 talk about you, Nate, shall we. You grew up in Michigan. 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:17.960 What's a nice boy like you doing in a crazy 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.720 business like this? And it's kind of unintentional, you know, 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.800 I covered? Um So, I went to college, got agree 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.959 in economics from the University of Chicago and Chicago, got 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:30.760 a consult go Cubs. I was, got a consulting job, 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:33.040 got bored, started working on the side to develop a 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.919 midle of the forecast how baseball players we do and 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:39.400 write about baseball for several years, um and then figure 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:41.960 out if people are spending all this time doing analytics 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:44.720 on Baseball's was the time when shortly after Moneyball came out, 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.040 I want to take the same approach towards politics. And 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.960 this was in early or late two thousand and seven. 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:54.919 Um So, you had a spectacular Democratic primary, very interesting 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.440 for that matter, Republican primary, and then a historic general election. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.080 Um So, it was kind of being in the right 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.199 place at the right time. It's so interesting to me 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:06.800 because you grew up with your two passions math and sports, right, 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.440 So so how did that morph into politics? I mean 0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:13.560 just because my frustration, because you've seen progress in the 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.639 way sports was covered became more analytical, a little smarter. 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:21.280 Um And you know, UM, I'm not sure that's true 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.720 of political coverage. I mean, very much value good reporting, 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:28.359 but um, but the average pundit is not particularly data driven, 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.159 doesn't know that much about polling, makes a lot of 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.480 assertions without evidence. UM than two thousand eight, for example, 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:36.399 people were like, well, Hillary is gonna win for sure 0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:39.040 in Obama, you know, too far behind. Of course that 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.280 was before Iowa and Iowa UM is often more predictive 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.520 the results than than national polls early in the primary race. 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:48.040 So it's more out of frustration where it's like, I 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.439 have to build this myself. I guess, Nate, where do 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.080 you go from here? Are you going to continue to 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:55.080 be with five thirty eight? I know you're working with 0:18:55.359 --> 0:19:00.040 ESPN and ABC now you deep kind of through the 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.920 New York Times over there. You dumped the New York Times, 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.040 which is, well, who does that need? We're only we're 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.040 only two blocks in a building they might be listening 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:11.800 in on this, but um no, look five three D 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.199 is a whole wonderful biased website and then we have 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:18.120 thirty or thirty five journalists working for us. We cover economics, sports, 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.359 politics that aren't just elections, and so we have a 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:24.280 robust site. I know people love our election coverage, um, 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:27.320 but we're looking forward to getting a little bit of rest, um, 0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:32.320 to letting our non politics coverage shine. But also there 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.840 are going to be consequences to this election, win or lose. 0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.639 They're going to persist for for many years. If you 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.760 cover policial living. It's good in that sense that you're 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:45.280 not going to be bored anytime soon. Um, but it's 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:47.840 going to take a lot of time again regardless of 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:52.800 who wins, too to unwrap everything that's that's happened. You 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:56.760 wrote a piece actually about why you got Trump so wrong. Yeah, 0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:01.399 until November December, until about a year ago, Um, we 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:04.400 were quite skeptical. And why was that? I mean, did 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:06.679 you just not see it coming? Or well, you know, 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:10.600 there aren't a lot of historical examples of primaries or 0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:16.000 seven team way primaries, but look, Trump did violate um, 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:18.919 a lot of history where there's never been anything remotely 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:21.640 like this, at least in my lifetime. I'm thirty eight. 0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:23.919 And if you're making forecasts, you're kind of trying to 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:29.800 make extrapolations from history. So when something unusual happens, Um, 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:32.400 you're liable to get that wrong. The question is still, 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:34.600 if you kind of replayed that race a hundred times, 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:36.879 how often would Trump when I mean, I don't know, 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:39.440 I mean, he proved that there's a very different Republican 0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:44.800 electorate than a lot of us thought. On the other hand, Um, 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:47.320 he had the element of surprise where there hadn't been 0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:50.159 a candidate like him, Um, where he committed so much 0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:52.880 attention to kind of rode the momentum from the polls 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:54.760 and made sure that he took up so much oxygen 0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:57.520 that you could never have remember the day when Um 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:00.879 kind of brilliant, tactically right. Rubio had had some debate, 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:02.760 I forget which one. There were so many some debate 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:06.120 whe Rubio done really well, was getting very good buzz. Um. 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:07.800 It was kind of catching up to Trump. And then 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:11.000 that's when Trump unveiled Chris Christie's endorsementyone dropped what they 0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:13.160 were doing and went and covered Trump and of course 0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:15.800 it was very theatrical. They had like flown Chris Christie 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:19.960 out somewhere surreptitiously. Um so his sense of theater and 0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:22.280 a sense of kind of how do you cater to 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:25.640 the twenty of people who are really interested in your product? 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:27.879 I mean that was a very trying out to be 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.760 very helpful instinct for him. But you know, it does 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:33.120 go against a lot of history. You guess what I'm 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:36.679 saying is that at some point, um, the polls override 0:21:37.320 --> 0:21:39.439 the history. At some point, when you get into November 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:43.040 December and Trump has a big lead nationally and a 0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:46.480 lade in most wing states, um or most early primary states, 0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:48.600 I should say then I think we're a little slow 0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:51.240 on the draw there, certainly. Well, and it's interesting you 0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:57.640 you assigned very specific odds or percentages to Trump's chances. 0:21:57.840 --> 0:22:02.440 You put his chances at two percent in August and December. 0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:07.760 I think people would be really interested in kind of 0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:11.080 peeling back the curtain and learning a little bit more 0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:15.560