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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to this new report about housing. This

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Speaker 3: headline here, more than half of US homes lost value

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Speaker 3: in the past year. More than half of US homes

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Speaker 3: lost value in the past year. Just to reiterate that,

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Speaker 3: the story says home values are falling for more than

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Speaker 3: half of the nation, the biggest share in more than

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Speaker 3: a decade when the US was still struggling to claw

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Speaker 3: out of the Great Recession. As of October, fifty three

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Speaker 3: percent of homes in the country had lost value in

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Speaker 3: the past year, according to Zillo Data. Nationally home price

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Speaker 3: appreciation has been roughly flat. With that figure masks large

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Speaker 3: regional disparities. Home prices are falling in much of the

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Speaker 3: southeast and parts of the West, while they're rising in

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Speaker 3: many cities in the Midwest and northeast. Ryan right off

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Speaker 3: the bat here, what do you make of the geographic disparity.

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Speaker 4: Yes, so you've got the southeast and the West, and

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Speaker 4: also Texas and the Southwest like Phoenix, Las Vegas. So

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Speaker 4: you know, a couple of things going on. You know,

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Speaker 4: Florida has its own, I think somewhat unique situation where

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Speaker 4: it's basically anybody who's watching this from Florida can can

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Speaker 4: testify to this in the comments. It's getting extremely difficult

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Speaker 4: to get insurance and they're probably going to need some

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Speaker 4: like sort of government bailout in the future to just

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Speaker 4: make to make mortgages possible, because to get a mortgage

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Speaker 4: you need insurance, and to getting insurance in Florida now

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Speaker 4: they're like, wait a minute, you want you want us

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Speaker 4: to ensure this house it's flooded four times in the

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Speaker 4: last four years and was knocked over by a hurricane.

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Speaker 5: How about we.

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Speaker 4: Don't ensure that. That's not a good business model.

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Speaker 3: You should take that up with the National Flood Insurance Program,

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Speaker 3: which subsidizes the rebuilding of homes.

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Speaker 4: Right, So they're not just going to subsidize, they're going

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Speaker 4: to I think they're just going to completely cover it,

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Speaker 4: that's my guess, rather than trying to deal with the problem.

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Speaker 4: And tho'se be some mediation as well. But yeah, so

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Speaker 4: in West Coast, different situation.

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Speaker 5: That's more.

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Speaker 4: Uh, you know, it's getting unaffordable for people right like

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Speaker 4: and also the and as this reporting alludes to, the

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Speaker 4: interest rates are so stubbornly high that the gap between

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Speaker 4: what the person selling has on their.

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Speaker 5: Mortgage interest rate between what you'd be getting.

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Speaker 4: Makes it so that it's an unmatched market because the

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Speaker 4: amount you have to spend a month to get a

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Speaker 4: certain amount of home is completely different.

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Speaker 5: You know, three percent vers six, six or seven percent.

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Speaker 4: You could develop and I was talking to somebody who

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Speaker 4: does housing finance policy recently, you could develop a portable

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Speaker 4: mortgage so that you could take you could basically sell your.

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Speaker 3: Mortgage, which the Trump administration is thinking about, and they should.

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Speaker 4: Do it like it's it's it would require you because

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Speaker 4: the problem is, right now, we bundle all our mortgages

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Speaker 4: into these securities, recreate these mortgage backed securities. So the

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Speaker 4: bank that makes the loan sells the loan immediately and

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Speaker 4: they slice it up and send it out and securitize it.

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Speaker 4: So the people who hold those securities don't want you

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Speaker 4: to be able to have a portable mortgage. So you'd

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Speaker 4: have to basically unroll those securities by making those those

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Speaker 4: investors whole somehow or just seizing them.

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Speaker 5: So you know something, you have to do something.

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Speaker 4: So that the bank can kind of retake control of it,

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Speaker 4: and then you can move it.

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Speaker 5: Then then it's totally fine.

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Speaker 4: You have a three percent mortgage, you want to keep it,

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Speaker 4: you can keep it, you have to move, you can,

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Speaker 4: you can sell.

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Speaker 3: If you like your mortgage, you can.

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Speaker 5: You like your mortgage, you can keep it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if you ran on that right now, you'd have

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Speaker 4: tens of millions of homeowners like, yeah, I do like

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Speaker 4: my mortgage, I would.

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Speaker 5: Like to keep it.

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Speaker 3: That would go well, yes, yeah, and.

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Speaker 4: I just want a different house, right and somebody else

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Speaker 4: can live in this house. How about that called a

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Speaker 4: market buy and sell things. Instead we've just completely frozen

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Speaker 4: the market.

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Speaker 3: Well, it would definitely help with the phenomenon of boomers

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Speaker 3: who are in houses that they want to downsize from,

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Speaker 3: but right now, it makes no sense for them to sell.

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Speaker 4: And they have to pay just as much for the

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Speaker 4: smaller house right with a seven percent mortgage, exactly as

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Speaker 4: they're paying on their three percent mortgage on their bigger house.

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Speaker 3: Right And they're the houses which would be great for

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Speaker 3: Gen Z and millennials like younger families, and they know

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Speaker 3: that would be great for younger families. They wish a

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Speaker 3: young family could move into them, but it doesn't make

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Speaker 3: any sense for them to sell, even though they want

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Speaker 3: to downsize and other people want to upsize. So it's

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Speaker 3: that actually would help with this disastrous generational mismatch right now.

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Speaker 4: Mm hmm, right, so, but it's like, but the question

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Speaker 4: then becomes is the United States capable of actually governing?

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Speaker 5: Like can the United States do policy?

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Speaker 3: Spoiler alert, I.

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Speaker 5: Don't think so.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's wild, like we're we're just basically on like

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Speaker 4: some type of cruise control.

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Speaker 5: We're just just rolling.

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Speaker 4: Like people can have ideas, the public can have a

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Speaker 4: will and demands, but the government just doesn't do anything.

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Speaker 3: Aaron Wren, who's a really interesting substacker. He just yesterday

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Speaker 3: sent out a very interesting piece on two dueling pieces

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Speaker 3: in the Wall Street Journal actually, where one is about

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Speaker 3: the luxury economy doing just incredibly well, which is fascinating.

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Speaker 3: I mean, markets are up and the luxury economy is

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Speaker 3: doing well, so like luxury hotels charging more money, doing

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Speaker 3: really well. But there's also a piece in the journal

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Speaker 3: about how people are now diluting their clorox and their

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Speaker 3: windex to pinch pennies, essentially because it's getting too damn

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Speaker 3: expensive to continue buying more and more swiffer pads or toothpaste.

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Speaker 3: This is where one woman in the story draws the

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Speaker 3: line at diluting her toothpaste. But these are two stories

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Speaker 3: in the Wall Street Journal essentially at the same time.

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Speaker 3: And it gets to as he goes and quotes this

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Speaker 3: Financial Time story that was very buzzy when it came out.

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Speaker 3: The top ten percent of earners now account for almost

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Speaker 3: half of all spending, up from about a third in

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Speaker 3: the nineteen nineties. The quote laoffs are surgeon. Consumer sentiment

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Speaker 3: has fallen by thirty percent year to year to near

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Speaker 3: record lows, and three out of four Americans tell polsters

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Speaker 3: that the economy is in fair or poor shape, and

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Speaker 3: they say the share of Americans who described themselves as

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Speaker 3: middle class has dropped from eighty five percent a decade

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Speaker 3: ago to fifty four percent. Over forty percent of Americans

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Speaker 3: considered themselves lower a working class, and so that's you know,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot that you could read into how we

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Speaker 3: describe ourselves. It was true for years that most Americans,

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Speaker 3: whether they were middle class or not, would describe themselves

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Speaker 3: as middle class. That an eighty five percent number was

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Speaker 3: kind of a constant, And it was a cool thing

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Speaker 3: actually about the US that even people who weren't middle

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Speaker 3: class were kind of aspirationially middle class, but they felt

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Speaker 3: like the word middle class described them because they felt

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Speaker 3: like they were relatively comfortable. So the drop in people

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Speaker 3: who considered themselves middle classes, I think actually very very

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Speaker 3: interesting and instructive phenomenon and a sad phenomenon. But also

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Speaker 3: just to see the luxury economy taking off while people

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Speaker 3: are literally being squeezed so much that they are diluting

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Speaker 3: windecks to get more out of it. Now, some of

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Speaker 3: your penny pintures have always do, and that's entirely fair, but.

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Speaker 5: More and more people, more people doing it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, because the cost of living is just outrageous,

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Speaker 3: and now you have half of home prices around the

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Speaker 3: country falling.

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Speaker 4: And what's so scary about the stat that you're talking

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Speaker 4: about there ten percent, the top ten percent, accounting for

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Speaker 4: fifty percent of the consumption, is that there's always been

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Speaker 4: this hope among people that, Okay, our our our elites,

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Speaker 4: our betters, do not care about us, but they need

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Speaker 4: us because we're a consumer economy. And so they will

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Speaker 4: take some baseline minimum level of care of the people,

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Speaker 4: whether it's ubi or some other figured out how they're

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Speaker 4: going to actually do this, but there's some level of

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Speaker 4: comfort that they're gonna they're gonna take care of people

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Speaker 4: just because they need the people to take care of

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Speaker 4: them by fueling the consumer economy.

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Speaker 5: Right, But if you can fuel.

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Speaker 4: The consumer economy just with luxury goods, then all of

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Speaker 4: a sudden you're like, well, wait a minute.

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Speaker 5: What if they don't need us.

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Speaker 4: So if ten percent can account for fifty percent of

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Speaker 4: the purchasing, what if they that ten percent is ten

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Speaker 4: percent can't buy everything, But they could push that up

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Speaker 4: to maybe seventy seventy five percent, and then the ten

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Speaker 4: percent underneath them could account for another ten to fifteen

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Speaker 4: percent of the purchasing, so you wind up with like

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Speaker 4: the top twenty percent consuming most of the economy. And

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Speaker 4: so then if you're a consumer economy, you're like, oh, well,

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Speaker 4: these one in five people are actually still buying stuff.

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Speaker 4: So maybe we don't actually have to do a UBI

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Speaker 4: or actually take care of the bottom eighty percent other

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Speaker 4: than through surveillance and repression and distraction and authoritarianism and dystopia.

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Speaker 4: Maybe let's just deliver them that and see if that's enough.

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Speaker 4: And if you need to, like you know, just keep

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Speaker 4: them alive. You can give them now, you can expand

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Speaker 4: snap benefits.

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Speaker 3: And so Neil Ferguson had a piece actually in the

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Speaker 3: Free Press recently where he points out, this is where

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Speaker 3: it gets really scary. Financial Times columnists or here Sharma

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Speaker 3: estimates that AI companies account for eighty percent of the

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Speaker 3: gains in US stocks this year. Not a surprising number

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Speaker 3: if you've been following this, but a stunning number. Nonetheless.

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Speaker 3: Ferguson goes on to say blogger economist Noah Smith knows

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Speaker 3: that quote more than a fifth of the entire S

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Speaker 3: and P five hundred market cap is now just three

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Speaker 3: country companies. Nvidia Microsoft and Apple, two of which are

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Speaker 3: basically big bets on AI. Ferguson points out the mag

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Speaker 3: seven account for more than a third of the S

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Speaker 3: and P five hundred's market cap. Quarterly capital expenditures by

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Speaker 3: these companies now exceed one hundred and ten billion, which

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Speaker 3: is roughly three times what it was two years ago.

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Speaker 3: Nearly two fifths of that total consists of purchases by

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Speaker 3: everyone else of Nvidia's graphics processing units. Ferguson goes out

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Speaker 3: to point out goes on to point out how circular.

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Speaker 3: It's basically illustrating what's pretty obviously a bubble because of

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Speaker 3: how circular the spending on AI often is in the

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Speaker 3: Invidia's circular investment scheme, which we are going to look

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Speaker 3: back on after this bubble likely bursts as being an

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Speaker 3: insane way obvious you're going to look at it like subprime,

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Speaker 3: like an insane way to organize an economy. But when

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Speaker 3: you see run.

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Speaker 5: Away documentary about it in three years and like, wow,

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Speaker 5: that was crazy.

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Speaker 3: We absolutely will and we're like the insane way that

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Speaker 3: you have runaway luxury spending right now, So much of

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Speaker 3: it is predicated on these tech stocks that are wildly

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Speaker 3: inflated because again there's this like circular financing scheme happening,

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Speaker 3: and meanwhile other people are let's put this on the screen.

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Speaker 3: This is C two. Home Depot is predicting a recession

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Speaker 3: based on Ryan. You found this story some indicator as

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Speaker 3: Home Depot can be a bell weather, they said. The

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Speaker 3: home improvement chain said it it served fewer customers in

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Speaker 3: the past three months than expected. This was on an

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Speaker 3: earnings report latest quarter earnings report from Home Depot, and

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Speaker 3: Home Depot said it was quote hurt by fewer violent

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Speaker 3: storms reaching American shores. Well weird way to say you're hurt,

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Speaker 3: more anxiety among US consumers, and a housing market in

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Speaker 3: a deep funk. And so when you see Ryan, the

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Speaker 3: juxtaposition of runaway luxury spending, a stock market that just

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Speaker 3: keeps going higher and higher and higher, and on the

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Speaker 3: flip side, people struggling on absolute basic spending, things look

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Speaker 3: really scary.

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Speaker 4: I like that side note too, is it tells you

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Speaker 4: how damaging some of these storms are.

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Speaker 5: That just by the fact that.

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Speaker 4: We haven't had as many recently means that fewer people

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Speaker 4: have to replace all the stuff that gets destroyed by

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Speaker 4: these storms. Yeah, the housing market too, like when people

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Speaker 4: aren't selling their home and moving, they're going to go

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Speaker 4: to the home depot much less.

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Speaker 5: I mean, also the and the anxiety.

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Speaker 3: That they put off refurbishing.

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Speaker 4: Right then and then consumers just feeling nervous about it.

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Speaker 4: There's also the kind of fast casual collapse that is underway.

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Speaker 4: You put up C three, Chipotle, Kava, Sweet Green, they

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Speaker 4: have they have all recently said that they're way way down, Like,

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Speaker 4: by no, it's high, high, double digits ten.

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Speaker 3: So why are we calling these slop bull chains that's

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Speaker 3: in the business. Stop it.

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Speaker 5: It's so good, all delicious.

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Speaker 3: All the Chipotle's problem is they got rid of the

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Speaker 3: honey chicken. But in all seriousness, actually right, you have

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Speaker 3: a theory on this being a zembically, I.

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Speaker 4: Feel like it's got there's some GLP one going on

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Speaker 4: here too. So they're saying and you know, they know

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Speaker 4: what they're talking about, because this is their business. You know,

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Speaker 4: they're you know, they think it's partly and I think

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Speaker 4: absolutely they're right that people are hurting and don't have

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Speaker 4: the same amount of money. The number of people on

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Speaker 4: some form of ozampak or GLP one, though, is astronomical

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Speaker 4: in this country.

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Speaker 5: At this point, and the kinds.

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Speaker 4: Of people that would care enough about their kind of

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Speaker 4: health to try to shed some weight. I would assume

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Speaker 4: there's a significant overlap with the kinds of people that

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Speaker 4: would eat it, like Chipotle, Kava Sweet Green, And when

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Speaker 4: you're on these GLP ones or whatever they are, you

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Speaker 4: just don't want a twenty dollars salad because like you're

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Speaker 4: going to eat like a quarter of it at most.

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Speaker 4: You can't like a giant burrito. You're like, it's like

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Speaker 4: a week's worth of food.

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Speaker 3: Right there, exactly.

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Speaker 5: And that's adding up.

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Speaker 4: Like when ozamba first came in, the brands like Oreos

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Speaker 4: and others were like, yeah, this is hitting us.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, people are not.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, But I think as it's gone from it first

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Speaker 4: was being prescribed to people like morbidly obese. Now it's

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Speaker 4: spreading the people who you know, just trying to lose

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Speaker 4: a little bit of weight.

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Speaker 3: And I think in the economy it's probably a combination

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Speaker 3: because to your point, they're way way down, so it's

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Speaker 3: a perfect storm for Chipotle or wherever else. But it's

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Speaker 3: also people are really pinching pennies because things are starting

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Speaker 3: to feel very precarious, and if you're, you know, super

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Speaker 3: overpriced salad company, no offense. I love all those chains,

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Speaker 3: but people realize they can, you know, do that a

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Speaker 3: little differently.

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Speaker 4: I love how people are trying to take the model

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Speaker 4: to everything. Have you seen the Indian one down the

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Speaker 4: street from here.

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Speaker 3: You told me about this, you said it was good.

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Speaker 5: It's very good.

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Speaker 4: It's like it's basically Indian food, but done Chipotle style.

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Speaker 4: You can get bulls or burritos, I mean Tandory chicken burrito.

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Speaker 5: It's genius the.

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Speaker 3: People that do that with sushi.

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Speaker 5: Yes, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I don't feel right about it. And speaking of the

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Speaker 3: tech stocks, we can put C four up on the screen,

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Speaker 3: big anti trust win for Meta Yesterday. I'll read a

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Speaker 3: bit from the CNBC story Metal one, it's high profile

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Speaker 3: anti trust case against the FTC, which it accused the

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Speaker 3: company of holding a monopoly and social networking. What a

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Speaker 3: shocking accusation. In a memo opinion released Tuesday, Judge James

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Speaker 3: Bosburg familiar name, of course Boseburg, he of the Mini

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Speaker 3: Trump contentious radical f Judge Bosburg uh said the FDC

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Speaker 3: failed to prove its argument. The case, initially filed by

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Speaker 3: the FTC five years ago centered on Meta's acquisitions of

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Speaker 3: Instagram and WhatsApp. And here's a quote from Boseburg in

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Speaker 3: this memo opinion whether or not Meta enjoyed monopoly power

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Speaker 3: in the past, though the agency FTC must show that

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Speaker 3: it continues to hold such power now. The court's verdict

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Speaker 3: today determines that the that the FTC has not done so.

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Speaker 3: A judgment so stating shall issue this day. Ryan. These were,

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Speaker 3: interestingly enough Obama Air mergers and some of the big

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Speaker 3: Obama Air mergers that people just were blazed right through. Yep,

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Speaker 3: snatch them up, It's all fine. And immediately you started

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Speaker 3: to recognize the consolidation when Meta snapped up those companies.

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Speaker 3: But it was at the time the Obama administration was

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Speaker 3: barely giving its second thought.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yes, that was one of the huge turning points

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Speaker 4: in our economy that the Obama administration was so corporate

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Speaker 4: controlled when it came to its competition an anti trade

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Speaker 4: policy that they allowed this stuff to go through. I mean, effectively,

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Speaker 4: what the judge is saying here is that, well, maybe

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Speaker 4: they were a monopoly then, but they suck so much

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Speaker 4: now that people have moved into TikTok and TikTok is

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Speaker 4: such a significant competitor, and you got Twitter, and was

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Speaker 4: it about to say you've got threads that's another meta

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Speaker 4: at a one, you.

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Speaker 5: Got blue Sky.

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Speaker 4: That there are some other options, so you're not the

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Speaker 4: only social network, so therefore it's fine.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Facebook doesn't have a monopoly because of course

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Speaker 3: YouTube exists. Amazing argumentation. Yeah yeah, but Trump's FTC is

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Speaker 3: mourning this. So Joe Simonson says, what, we are deeply

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Speaker 3: disppointed in this decision. That dec was always stacked, to

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Speaker 3: guess with Judge Bosberg, who is currently facing articles of impeachment.

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Speaker 3: We are reviewing all our options. But that's an interesting

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Speaker 3: little part of the FTC suit in this case is

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Speaker 3: that there really was in around twenty twenty in particular,

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Speaker 3: you remember this, there's so much populist left right anger

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Speaker 3: at consolidation, which there should be, because this entire segment

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Speaker 3: has been about consolidation basically driving up stock prices to

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Speaker 3: unsustainable bubble levels. And here you see why, exactly why

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Speaker 3: that's happening.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we'll see if the government has better luck

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Speaker 4: on appeal or if they appeal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yes, we will keep an eye on that for sure.

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Speaker 3: Let's turn to Mexico City. Run.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So last week or the week before, I forget when

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Speaker 4: time blends together.

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Speaker 5: Soger and I reported that.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump, when he was persuaded to take on Venezuela,

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Speaker 4: was told that the reason that they were going to

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Speaker 4: do this is because Venezuela was a major source of

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Speaker 4: drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl.

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Speaker 5: So he asked his intelligence community to come back to

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Speaker 5: him with targets.

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Speaker 4: So, okay, you're telling me that there's enormous amount of

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Speaker 4: drugs coming out of Venezuela. Where where are they coming from,

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Speaker 4: where they're going? How can we kinetically militarily intervene here?

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Speaker 4: What can I bomb to change this? The problem was

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Speaker 4: that this was mostly a lie. Venezuela is not involved

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Speaker 4: in the fentanyl trade and barely involved in even the

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Speaker 4: cocaine trade. There's a couple there's a little bit of

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Speaker 4: coca area along the Venezuela Colombia border, but it's kind

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Speaker 4: of like a stateless area. It's barely accurate to say

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Speaker 4: it's even Venezuela. And so the intelligence community came back,

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Speaker 4: and this is the danger of these types of fishing expeditions.

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Speaker 4: They came back with a list of targets in Colombia

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Speaker 4: and Mexico because those are actually.

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Speaker 5: The places where there's.

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Speaker 4: Drug draf geting going on, which reminded me a lot

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Speaker 4: of Right after nine to eleven, in a meeting, Rumsfeld

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Speaker 4: famously said that they shouldn't go after Afghanistan, but instead.

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Speaker 5: They should go after Iraq because Iraq is.

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Speaker 4: A target rich environment and there's not enough targets in Afghanistan.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, like, hold.

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Speaker 4: On a second, they didn't have any they didn't have

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Speaker 4: anything to do with nine to eleven. Why are we

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Speaker 4: You can't just bomb them because they have targets.

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Speaker 5: That's not how it works, right, And rum I was.

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Speaker 3: Like, no, no, no, actually, trust me, I know how

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Speaker 3: it works.

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Speaker 5: That's precisely what we're going to do.

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Speaker 4: So then that creeps you into a place where now

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Speaker 4: all of a sudden, you're discussing war.

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Speaker 5: With Colombia and Mexico.

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Speaker 4: So saga I reported that a couple weeks ago, the

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Speaker 4: strong confirmation of that emerged from Donald Trump talking about

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Speaker 4: wanting to bomb Mexico because you know the things that

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Speaker 4: he gets briefed on, you know, they don't stay secret forever.

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Speaker 4: They vomit out of his mouth when he is surrounded

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Speaker 4: by reporters.

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Speaker 5: So let's roll D one. There's Trump.

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Speaker 6: Would I launch strikes in Mexico to stub drugs? It's

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Speaker 6: okay with me. Whatever we have to do to stop

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Speaker 6: drugs Mexico is Look. I looked at Mexico City over

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Speaker 6: the weekend. There's some big problems over there. If we

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Speaker 6: had to do what we do there, what we've done

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Speaker 6: to the waterways. You know, there's almost no drugs coming

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Speaker 6: into our water is anymore. Colombia has cocaine factories where

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Speaker 6: they make cocaine. Would I knock out those factories?

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Speaker 7: I would be proud to do it.

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Speaker 6: Personally, I didn't say I'm doing it, but I would

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Speaker 6: be proud to do it because we're going to save

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Speaker 6: millions of lives by doing it.

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Speaker 4: So these Colombian cocaine factories, So that to me reads

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Speaker 4: like a very clear reference to the target list that

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Speaker 4: he was given.

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Speaker 5: You can read our story to get more details about that.

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Speaker 4: About that list, he also and this is where the

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Speaker 4: creep gets dangerous too, mentioned Mexico City.

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Speaker 5: He said, I saw what happened in Mexico City this weekend.

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Speaker 4: So he goes from drugs Venezuela drugs to Mexican drugs,

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Speaker 4: to I saw what happened in Mexico City over the weekend,

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Speaker 4: then would I bomb Columbia?

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Speaker 5: Sure, I'd be happy to.

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Speaker 4: So let's reverse the record to go back to Okay,

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Speaker 4: what happened in Mexico City.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we can.

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Speaker 4: And that's when there was this significant opposition party protest

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Speaker 4: where they tried to like ransack their way in the

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Speaker 4: presidential palace.

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Speaker 3: A little bit of opposition from left and the right

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Speaker 3: actually together.

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Speaker 4: And but with the go on, people are skeptical that

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Speaker 4: there was any non trivial left involvement here.

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Speaker 5: But we can.

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Speaker 4: We can talk about that in a second, Cloudy Shinbaum,

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Speaker 4: the President's still like a seventy plus approval rating. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: so she responded to Trump's threat to bomb Mexico.

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Speaker 5: Here's Shinebaum. You want to read.

442
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: As I said, the last time the US intervened in Mexico,

443
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 3: they took half our territory.

444
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 7: True.

445
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,679
Speaker 3: I've said it many times in my phone conversations with

446
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 3: President Trump. He has repeatedly suggested or offered a US

447
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 3: military intervention in Mexico. Like how she said't went from

448
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 3: suggested to offer or whatever. We need to combat criminal groups.

449
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 3: But I've told him every time that we can collaborate,

450
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 3: that they can help us with any information they have,

451
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 3: so that's intelligent sharing, but that we operate within our

452
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 3: own territory. We will not accept intervention, all right. So

453
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 3: that's a very typical line from Shinbaum and actually like

454
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 3: Marina that they are defending Mexican sovereignty and won't want

455
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 3: any military incursions apart from intelligence sharing, which she just

456
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: alluded to there on Mexican soil, which is you know,

457
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: getting to be I mean Trump. The best case scenario

458
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 3: here is that Trump is making threats that force other

459
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 3: people to clean up their own houses. Whether or not

460
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 3: he's in a position to that is a different question.

461
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 3: But when you have these major military build ups, that

462
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 3: arguably is the best case scenario is that it's a

463
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 3: kind of piece through strength formula. But right now he

464
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 3: seems pretty eager, Ryan, and your reporting suggests that they

465
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: are putting pieces in place that aren't mere signals of

466
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 3: intent but actually look like intent.

467
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 4: Right And they right, they certain they certainly are putting

468
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 4: the pieces in place. And that's that's the trouble, that's

469
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 4: the that's the fear because once they get in place,

470
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 4: it's very hard to slow them down. And we're seeing

471
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 4: that now in the Caribbean. I was on Pierce Morgan,

472
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 4: uh did that or whatever talking about the war with Venezuela,

473
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 4: which is, you know, Trump just keeps or Rubio, I

474
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 4: should say, just keeps ratching up the pressure and it

475
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 4: you you get you you move dangerously close to a

476
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 4: place where you either have to then completely climb down

477
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 4: and capitulate and slink back to the US without getting anything,

478
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 4: or you then have to launch an actual war because

479
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 4: of your bluff has been called because they Maduro keeps

480
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 4: offering basically the entire store to Trump, and but Rubio's

481
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 4: Rubio's refusing to take it, and Trump is not intervened

482
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 4: yet to say just just take it like he's he's

483
00:25:54,720 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 4: offering you everything, just just take it. In So in

484
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 4: Mexico City, to talk about what's going on there, and

485
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 4: to back up to the point about pressuring them to

486
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 4: clean up the previous Mexican government, under pressure both domestically

487
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 4: and also from the United States.

488
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 5: Launched in full on, all out war on the cartels.

489
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 4: And it was a complete and total catastrophe, and it

490
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 4: did nothing to reduce drug trafficking, and it only ended

491
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 4: up strengthening the cartels in the end. And so when

492
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 4: Lopez overdoor came in, you know, he was saying, we're

493
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: going to try to take a different policy. We're going

494
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 4: to try to reduce drug trafficking. We're also going to

495
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 4: reduce violence. We're going to make Mexico livable again, like

496
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 4: entire places were just absolute Afghanistan.

497
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 5: Level war zones.

498
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 7: Yeah.

499
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 4: Absolutely, And if you look at the data around violence

500
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 4: in Mexico, it's way way down.

501
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 8: Now.

502
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 4: The idea that you're going to eliminate drug trafficking when

503
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 4: you have a wealthy, drug hungry country right next door

504
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 4: is a fantasy.

505
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 5: Well in parts of somebody's going to feed our noses.

506
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 3: Well, part of the Mexican economy is built up around trafficking. Yeah,

507
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 3: I mean it's just.

508
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 4: In the American economy built up but around consuming the.

509
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 3: Drugs, definitely. But there's obviously also that's baked into Mexico

510
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 3: as well. Now there's cartels for years have been built

511
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: up on this infrastructure related to trafficking. And I remember

512
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 3: I asked O and Grillo early in the Trump administration.

513
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 3: He's a great journalist, done in Mexico City and was

514
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: doing some excellent coverage and getting tear gas done into

515
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: Sokolow over the weekend. But he pointed out if the

516
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 3: Trump administration shuts down the mass human trafficking that was

517
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: going with migrants throughout Mexico up through Central America, but

518
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 3: in Mexican cartel Sinaloa, they were all heavily involved in that.

519
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 3: Where else do they find profit? He's like, what are

520
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 3: you talking like. They'll go back to heroin. They'll go

521
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 3: back to that, they will find they will make up

522
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 3: that lost revenue with drugs. They've always done it, They're

523
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 3: used to doing it.

524
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 4: And so the right wing in Mexico, the kind of

525
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 4: upper class in Mexico has always hated Lopez Oberdoor.

526
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 5: They do not like Shinebaum.

527
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 4: They had been agitating against her over the last you know,

528
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 4: several weeks and months, and then in early November, Carlos

529
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 4: Manzil Rodriguez, which is the mayor of European in the

530
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 4: Michael Khan state, which is a cartel heavy state, was

531
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 4: assassinated November first at the Stay of the Dead event.

532
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 3: And he had been militant, he had been.

533
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 5: He was trying to old.

534
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 4: He was trying the old style that he's going to

535
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 4: bring the hammer down, he's going to go to war

536
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 4: against the cartoon.

537
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 3: He's trying to push shinebaumb in that direction.

538
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 4: Yeah and so, and he was assassinated, probably by the

539
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 4: cartels yea.

540
00:28:58,400 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, and so.

541
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 4: That generated understandable outrage that that look like you're headed

542
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 4: back into this area. Now, the idea that that justifies

543
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 4: that you should go back to a military war against

544
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 4: the cartels is I don't think the country agrees with.

545
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 4: But so the protests then started adopting some of the

546
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 4: cartel We need to crack down the cartel rhetoric too,

547
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 4: because these are op opportunistic protests.

548
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 5: They're trying to create.

549
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 4: They're trying to create scenes in the street that that

550
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 4: suggests that Mexico is a repressive place and like Shine

551
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 4: bombs at Tyrant and that the US should then intervene

552
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 4: and get rid of her and replace, you know, put

553
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 4: the upper classes candidate back in.

554
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 5: They this was sold as like a gen Z protest.

555
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 4: You can look at the crowd itself, like very few

556
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 4: young people in the crowd.

557
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 5: This is as they're trying to take enter the palate.

558
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 4: And if you look, you can see this guy who's

559
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 4: kind of like bossing around these other goons. I interviewed

560
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 4: a Mexican reporter yesterday at drop site who said that

561
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 4: it's it's well known that there are these elements of

562
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 4: organized crime in the city that are for sale for protests.

563
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 4: It's like, if you need to, if you need a

564
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 4: goon squad to call to cause trouble at a protest, we

565
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 4: will bring them. And he said he could just tell

566
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: by the way that and that's one of the videos

567
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 4: he took, by the way that they were operating, that

568
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 4: they were one of these organized goon squads. Like he

569
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 4: is somebody who's on the left. He knows the black block,

570
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 4: he knows the anarchists. It's like they were not there.

571
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 4: It's like you can tell the anarchists from from the

572
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 4: organized crime goons, right, and the anarchists were not.

573
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 3: There or there. But I mean what I saw from

574
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 3: a couple of journalists were there, they were in small numbers.

575
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 3: It wasn't right, like a huge comparison. It wasn't a

576
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 3: huge It wasn't equatable.

577
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 4: Right, You're always gonna have a couple for sure, like

578
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 4: you know somebody, but like the that violence that you

579
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 4: saw was organized crime figures, ironically saying that we need

580
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 4: to crack down on organized crime we can put up.

581
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 4: The final element to this was one of the funniest

582
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 4: photos that was circulating.

583
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 7: It.

584
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 4: So Griffin was down at the Mexican protest and his

585
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 4: one piece T shirt. People thought that this was Vicente Fox.

586
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 4: He's claiming it's not.

587
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 5: It does look like him, Whether it is or not, it's.

588
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 4: Just comical because like the like late middle aged dude

589
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 4: with the hat and the glasses stash and a one

590
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 4: piece T shirt is giving the most hello fellow kids

591
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: energy that you could ever possibly. Yes, like the only

592
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 4: thing he's missing is the skateboard. So yes, the gen

593
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 4: Z were out in force.

594
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 3: And the demanding regime change.

595
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 4: The reporter we had this on our drop side stream yesterday.

596
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 4: The Mexican reporter interviewed a whole bunch of these old

597
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 4: people at the rally and they're just they're just.

598
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 5: Right wing, rich white people.

599
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 4: Who are old, and which is fine, Like those people

600
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 4: are entitled to not like Claudia Shinbaum and be able

601
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 4: to protest her, but you can't also call yourself gen z.

602
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 4: Come on Z words A meaning you're not young.

603
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 3: Sorry, I mean on a serious note, of course, and

604
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 3: one de Vidro hast pointed this out in his great

605
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 3: piece of Compact. There have been you know, if violence

606
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 3: is going down overall in Mexico, great, there have been

607
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 3: a lot of killings of mayors and journalists. The violence

608
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 3: in Mexico is still absolutely horrific. So when you see

609
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: the the killing at a Day of the Dead, it

610
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 3: was like a candle lighting ceremony just in front of

611
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 3: other people of a local mayor. Horrific, but also part

612
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 3: of an ongoing pattern, a really really serious situation for

613
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 3: the people of Mexico, of course. But Shinebaum's approval rating

614
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 3: is hovering around like seventy percent.

615
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 4: It's very, very high, and nobody you can't even imagine

616
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 4: that in the United States.

617
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 3: Even on the question of violence, she has a pretty

618
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 3: high of cracking down on cartel violence, she has a

619
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 3: pretty high well, one points out her approval on handling

620
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 3: of public security has more than doubled to over fifty

621
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 3: percent since she assumed office. So the question whether this

622
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 3: was some type of referendum on shinebamb herself obviously wasn't.

623
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 3: So that's important, important, Yeah, for sure. All right, Ryan,

624
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 3: let's get to talking about the Democrats.

625
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 4: Democratic Minority leader Hakim Jefferies is getting a challenge from

626
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 4: she Osa, who was a city councilor in New York

627
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 4: City who represents bed Sty and parts of Crown Heights.

628
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 4: He's also a Democratic Socialist, but he is not getting

629
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 4: the support of the most prominent Democratic Socialists in the cities.

630
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 4: Are on Mom Donnie or Alexandria Okazio Cortes to talk

631
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 4: about what this means for the Democratic Party. We were

632
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 4: joined by Van Lathan, friend of the show and a

633
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 4: host of higher learning and as people know, Man about town. Van,

634
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 4: delightful to have you on the program. Finally we've been

635
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 4: talking about doing this. Glad to get you on here

636
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 4: and hope you hope to have you back again soon.

637
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 5: But welcome to Breaking Points.

638
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 9: Oh man, you guys have no idea what it means

639
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 9: to be here. After having watched you guys for so long,

640
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 9: watching Matt wallsh squirm over Haiti, There's so many things

641
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 9: I could bring up. Let's get into the issues of

642
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 9: the day.

643
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 5: All right, Let's do it. Excellent, all right.

644
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 4: So, oh Say apparently had a bit of a falling

645
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 4: out with the Mom Donnie campaign. It was reported that

646
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 4: he was not at the election night party. As a

647
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 4: result of this, I did not see him there, can't

648
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 4: confirm if he wasn't sneaking around somewhere else. And so

649
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 4: right out of the gate, after mom Donnie's win there

650
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 4: starts there's starting to be rumors that he's going to

651
00:34:55,920 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 4: challenge Hkeem Jeffries the for the congressional seat in that

652
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 4: in that area. You then get reports that Mom Donnie

653
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 4: doesn't want him to do it. And now you have

654
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 4: and we can put up e one here. So AOC

655
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 4: was asked about this and she said she told Axios

656
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 4: in a brief interview at the Capitol quote not aware

657
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: there's challenging, which is kind of crazy because it's.

658
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:18,720
Speaker 5: Been quite public.

659
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 4: But she added, I certainly don't think a primary challenge

660
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 4: to the leader is a good idea right now. Enormous

661
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 4: amount to unpack here. What what what was your reaction to,

662
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 4: like AOC uh and Mom Donnie telling uh this, uh

663
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 4: telling this challenger Osay that now is not the time.

664
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 9: A couple of things. One, before I even get into it,

665
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 9: I want to shout out she Osay's dad who's passed away,

666
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 9: Reggie os Combat, Jack pioneering pioneering black hip hop podcast,

667
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 9: or maybe the first black hip hop podcast. I remember

668
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 9: going on uh Cheese Wikipedia and seeing that combat Jack

669
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 9: was his dad and going, oh my god, man, I

670
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 9: knew your father. What are the son of a legend?

671
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 9: So you know, the apple doesn't fall too far from

672
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 9: the free the tree as far as making an impact,

673
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 9: this is what I'd say. I sometimes feel for the

674
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 9: average progressive constituent, particularly the young ones, because they have

675
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 9: to wake up one day to the sober and reality

676
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 9: that all of these people become politicians. They are political

677
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 9: operatives and they make deals.

678
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 7: Right.

679
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 9: I need Hakeem Jeffries Gone. I need that wing of

680
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 9: the centrists. I need him gone, I need him Schumer gone.

681
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 9: I need people that are clearly anti genocide and clearly

682
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 9: pro healthcare. Those My bar is so low right now, guys.

683
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 9: I just want you to be clearly anti genocide and

684
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 9: clearly you don't have to go broke because you got cancer. Right,

685
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 9: that's the bar. That's it. Okay. However, in understanding how

686
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 9: these things work, I'm sure there's some sort of deal

687
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 9: that's been cut between Mom Donnie and Jeffrey's in terms

688
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 9: of you don't support a primary challenger to me, and

689
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 9: I help normalize you to the Democratic centrist elite base

690
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 9: and we try to get some things done. So everybody

691
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 9: out there that is still looking at AOC and Zoron

692
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 9: as crusaders and not politicians that make deals, I think

693
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 9: they're going to be continuously disappointed in sort of their

694
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 9: stomach for actual revolution. This is not to say that

695
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 9: these people are not useful. I'm not saying that at all.

696
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 9: This is not to say that they don't represent the

697
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 9: politics that we want to see. But they're politicians. So

698
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 9: they're going to do some things that are going to

699
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 9: disappoint you, and it's better that they do it earlier

700
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 9: than at a time you're really expecting them to come through.

701
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 3: It's an interesting question about Jefferies, too, which is like,

702
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 3: is it if you topple Jeffries, who comes in Jeffries' place?

703
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 3: And are they better or worse than Jeffries would be?

704
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 3: If you're already cutting deals with Jeffries, you could have

705
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 3: asked the same question, and AOC had to confront this

706
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 3: many times, as Ryan has written about extensively with Nancy Pelosi.

707
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 3: So I guess that's a question in and of itself

708
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 3: is that I mean, right now is a right moment.

709
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 3: So it's tempting, of course to just go full fringe

710
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 3: revolution and knock everybody down. But then there's a question

711
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: that way. But you know, you know what I'm saying,

712
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 3: like it is a good moment, like this was the

713
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 3: Tea Party did to John Bayner get rid of leadership.

714
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 3: But then you get Paul Ryan. So that's a question.

715
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 3: I think that's probably worth confronting as well with Hakim Jeffries.

716
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean I get it. And once again, this

717
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 9: is the difference between someone who's in the inside and

718
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 9: someone who's on outside. No one watches Star Wars and

719
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 9: then goes, I wonder who's gonna come after the emperor.

720
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 9: We can't do this. We like somebody worse might be

721
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 9: on the other side of the dark side of the forest.

722
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 9: They just go Emperor gone movie. We win, right, But

723
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 9: when you're inside of the thing, you have to make

724
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 9: those political calculations. So yeah, there's a whole bunch of

725
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 9: things that you have to think about. But this is

726
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 9: what people don't want to believe, what people don't want

727
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 9: to believe, and this is the what's running up or

728
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 9: what's sort of enmeshed in all of this. People don't

729
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 9: want to believe that as business as usual. The thing

730
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 9: that people are most afraid of is the business as

731
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 9: usual aspect of politics, which is, you know, in two

732
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 9: thousand and eight, everyone's unemployed, the system looks like it's crumbling,

733
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 9: and somebody comes along and says hope and change, and

734
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 9: you buy in. You go, all right, hope and change.

735
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 9: We are the ones that we have been wait for.

736
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 9: Still the coldest line any politician has ever up, that's

737
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 9: up there with fear itself. We are the ones that

738
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 9: we've been waiting for. You looked at yourself in the mirror.

739
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 9: I went tears streaming down. I was like, oh me,

740
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 9: I oh them together? And then what do you get?

741
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 9: Pod drone? So like my like, the business as usual

742
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 9: thing is what sours people to the belief that we

743
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 9: can actually live in a different type of world. And

744
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 9: so uh, that is kind of what AOC and Mom

745
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 9: Donnie are up against. Is we elected them. They promised

746
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 9: a revolution that was worker first, affordability first, and look

747
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 9: at them now they would Haquem Jeffries and that is

748
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 9: going to be chilling to a lot of people. And

749
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 9: it's up to them. Last thing I'll say, I'm typically long,

750
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 9: more long with than than this. You guys are getting

751
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 9: a brief first. It's up to them to make it

752
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 9: plain to their constituents that that's not what's happening here.

753
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 9: Although it's a tough sale right.

754
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 4: Now, especially a tough selle because of the history here,

755
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 4: which makes it almost even more deflating, because AOC in

756
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen knocked out Joe Crowley, who was the caucus

757
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 4: chair on his way to becoming a speaker. When he's

758
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 4: knocked out, there's then an election to replace him, and

759
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 4: it was Barbara Lee versus Akeem Jeffries, and AOC got

760
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 4: behind Barbara Lee. It was a pretty close contest, you

761
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 4: lost by ten or twenty or so. But Akeem Jeffries,

762
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:37,359
Speaker 4: who was Crowley's deputy, you know, takes the caucus chair

763
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 4: position and then is next in line, and that's how

764
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 4: he eventually becomes a leader. So to go from there

765
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 4: to then, well, it's not time to take him on.

766
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 4: I think it's you know, it's got to be frustrating

767
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:52,479
Speaker 4: for a lot of people, but like you said, they're

768
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 4: making a different calculation. Like Mom, Donnie at this point

769
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 4: wants to take on real estate developers. He wants, he

770
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 4: wants he's got his agenda that he he ran on,

771
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 4: he wants to get that accomplished, and he he sees

772
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 4: it going after Jeffries as not just a distraction, but

773
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 4: maybe a hindrance. My counter argument might be, sometimes the

774
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 4: best defense is a good offense, Like if you've got

775
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 4: if you've got Jefferies on his heels, and if you've

776
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 4: got Jeffries and his allies, then defending this position, then

777
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 4: maybe they have less time to mess with you the

778
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 4: whole time in city Hall. So I mean that, So

779
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 4: just even if it's all about pragmatics and we're not

780
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 4: revolutionaries here, maybe pragmatically going on offense might work. Like

781
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 4: when has backing off helped.

782
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 9: I'd say never. I tend to agree with your assessment.

783
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 9: You know, Mam. Donnie's in the position to where he's

784
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 9: not just governing for himself. He's governing for collection of

785
00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 9: ideas and for an approach to polics, to where he

786
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 9: is sort of proof of concept of something and if

787
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 9: it fails, he will be the example that it cannot

788
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 9: work right. And sometimes I wonder what that pressure or

789
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 9: what that spotlight is like now listen. I don't give

790
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 9: any quarter to politicians. I believe that you are basically

791
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 9: like a waiter in a restaurant. If I go into

792
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 9: a shout out to all the service and restaurants everywhere, okay.

793
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 9: But if I go into a restaurant and I say, hey,

794
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 9: I want my food, and the waiter is very charming

795
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 9: and very nice, but I don't get what I want.

796
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 9: I'm gonna say, hey, man, look, I'm glad that you

797
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 9: told me about your family. Can you go back to

798
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 9: the kitchen and maybe bring the stakes out? Very charming,

799
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 9: very nice waiter that lets me down in a very

800
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 9: eloquent way. I'm like, no, at some point, bring the meat,

801
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 9: all right. That's basically what Bill Clinton did for President

802
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 9: Trump allegedly, And at some point I want to meet

803
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 9: all right, bring the stakes out. Mamdani has to bring

804
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 9: the stakes. He has to deliver the protein to the people.

805
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 9: And the question is what else is he going to

806
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 9: need to do that? And how much disappointment can you

807
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 9: endure from the political process on the way. I tend

808
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 9: to believe, like you believe, I tend to believe that

809
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 9: upheaval is the best way to progress clean the trash

810
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 9: off the street and you drive down the roads easier.

811
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 9: But it's just hard to do. These people are entrenched,

812
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 9: they've been around for a very very long time. They

813
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 9: carry an intense amount of favor, and they are very

814
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 9: good at promise making well.

815
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 3: And there's also, I mean, you see this on social

816
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 3: media a lot and understandable impatience on the populist left

817
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 3: and the populist right with their proof of concept type politicians.

818
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 3: And I'm curious how you see the left's expectations going

819
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 3: into the Mom Donnie meyrality, because he's now going to

820
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 3: be in this position of great power not just over

821
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 3: in New York City but also over the trajectory of

822
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 3: the party. And he's a politician. You know, you like him,

823
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 3: you'd be a great waiter to continue in your metaphor.

824
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 3: But the expectations of like the young generation of the

825
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 3: left are on his shoulders, and that is I mean,

826
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 3: nobody can meet expectations that high. So I guess I'm

827
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:28,240
Speaker 3: curious how you see people right now preparing to treat

828
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 3: Mom Donnie as a as a politician.

829
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 9: I saw a good tweet on this, a great tweet

830
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 9: on this from Mia Khalifa, Mia Khalifa. Actually, I like, actually,

831
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 9: I saw she's a smart lady. I saw a tweet

832
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 9: she was like, Okay, everybody's for was for mom, Donnie.

833
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 9: Everybody wanted to see this happen. And it wasn't just

834
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 9: because of the collection of policy. It was because, you know,

835
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 9: I don't have any problem with I just can't see

836
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 9: anyone having no problem with like free buses, grocery stores

837
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 9: and affordability, Like I don't have any problem with making

838
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 9: services more ready available to people, bringing costs and prices down.

839
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 9: I just don't know what was so scary to everyone.

840
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 9: But you know, political differences and economic outlooks aside. The

841
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 9: people wanted to believe that there was somebody that was

842
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 9: brave enough to say what we all know is that

843
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 9: this isn't working. This religious allegiance to the most cutthroat

844
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 9: brand of American capital, it's not working. It's not working.

845
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 9: People are being left behind. People can't live where they

846
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 9: grew up, People have to move to the outskirts. People

847
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:42,839
Speaker 9: aren't finded. It's not happening. Everything is too expensive. We're

848
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 9: not looking at the Americans that didn't make this country great,

849
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 9: that are making this country great every day and he

850
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 9: said that with a lot of zeal and, with a

851
00:46:53,640 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 9: lot of compassion, and with just he was a devastating

852
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 9: communicator all of that. He's not an angel, he's not

853
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 9: a deity. He's a politician. He's a local official that

854
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 9: now became a mayor. And what her tweet said was,

855
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 9: Let's not put him on a pedestal. Let's not make

856
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 9: our entire lives and our entire belief system. Let's not

857
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 9: get two down in the dumps about the obvious political

858
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,959
Speaker 9: disappointment that's going to come at some point from this guy.

859
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 9: Let's try to be realistic about what he's up against,

860
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 9: what he's going to have to do, and who he's

861
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 9: going to have to be. Let's try to like, like,

862
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 9: let go just a little bit. She says, let's not

863
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 9: put him on a pedestal. He's a politician. We're gonna

864
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 9: have to do that, and that's gonna be hard. But

865
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 9: part of that, though, I'll say, is this, part of

866
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 9: that is the media's responsibility. And this is why speaking

867
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 9: of you know, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, now I'm

868
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,399
Speaker 9: gonna do it to you guys a little bit. This

869
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 9: is why independent media is important because of the long

870
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 9: form investigation into topics, the context that is given, the

871
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 9: sometimes sobering realities that can be had when something is

872
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 9: deep dove into to where you can come back feeling

873
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 9: like everything is not a zero sum game, you know.

874
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 9: And so to me, this is the whole deal with

875
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 9: all of this stuff. Do I am vision a world

876
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 9: that's closer to mom Donnie's world? Sure I do, I

877
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 9: absolutely do. But do I think that he has unilateral

878
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 9: authority all he's all powerful to blink and make New

879
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 9: York into the vision of New York that he wants

880
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 9: it to be. He just doesn't. He doesn't. And so

881
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 9: there are going to be some things that he is

882
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 9: going to win on and some things that he is

883
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 9: going to be lose lose on. If you lose complete

884
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,320
Speaker 9: hope in him, then you're losing hope in that brand

885
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 9: of politics. And I think that would be a tragedy.

886
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:03,919
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, so Jeffreys was asked about OSE's primary challenging role

887
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 4: E three.

888
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 8: Here, New York City councilman she Os filed paperwork today

889
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 8: to run against you to represent Brooklyn. He has said

890
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 8: that Democratic leadership has failed to effectively fight against President

891
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:16,760
Speaker 8: Donald Trump.

892
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 7: What's your response? Come on in the water is warm.

893
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,720
Speaker 5: Water's one I think water is nice. This is the phrase.

894
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 4: But okay, I was talking to a high school friend

895
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 4: yesterday actually about Jeffries. And he's not a committed he's

896
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 4: an independent. But he was like, you guys got to

897
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 4: do something about a keep Jefferies. I'm like, what do

898
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 4: you mean you guys?

899
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 5: By the way, first of.

900
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 4: All, he's like, but he's like that guy's the guy's

901
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 4: bad for the He's like every time I see him

902
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 4: or Schumer, like, I just dislike Democrats more. He's hurting.

903
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 4: He's hurting what you guys are doing. Even that, it's like.

904
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 4: And Jefferies' thing when he came up was that he

905
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 4: was supposed to be this great communicator. That was his

906
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 4: selling point. I don't know what happened between now and then.

907
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 4: Just for fun speaking, since you mentioned Epstein, our man

908
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 4: did find himself unfortunately in those files, if.

909
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 5: We can roll not in the way you're thinking.

910
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 4: Basically, a consultant of his was reaching out to Epstein

911
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 4: to do a fundraiser, invite him to a fundraising dinner.

912
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,760
Speaker 4: But here's E four and him getting dragged into these files.

913
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 10: Another email shows Democrat fundraisers invited Epstein to an event

914
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 10: or to meet privately with Hakeem Jeffries as part of

915
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 10: their twenty thirteen effort to win a majority. So Hakeem

916
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 10: Jefferies campaign solicited money from Jeffrey Epstein.

917
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 9: That's what we.

918
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 10: Found in the last document batch. The files underscore why

919
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 10: former President Trump must appear for his deposition. We've subpoened him.

920
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 10: To date, the Democrats have done nothing to help us

921
00:50:56,280 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 10: secure his appearance. I support full transparency Over committee will

922
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 10: continue to work to get the truth to the American

923
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 10: people and to get justice for the victims. That's our

924
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 10: goal of this investigation.

925
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 9: With that, I yiel back.

926
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 4: Now, I don't even know if Jeffries had any idea

927
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 4: who Epstein was, but bad luck for him that his

928
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 4: fundraising consultant reached out to Epstein to try to hit

929
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 4: him up for money back in twenty thirteen, telling telling Epstein,

930
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 4: you really need to meet this guy.

931
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 5: He's a rising star. You know, he's going to be

932
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 5: a top Democrat.

933
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 7: Yeah.

934
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 4: So I don't know, like Hakim Jeffries, what's going on

935
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 4: with this party.

936
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 9: A couple of things. Number one, it's very hard to

937
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 9: be a good communicator if you are measuring every single word, right,

938
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 9: if you're measuring every single word, if your brain is

939
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 9: Q testing every single word, are they gonna like me?

940
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 9: Or they going to like me? Do I come off cool?

941
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 9: Do I come off like the cool guy? Is this cool? Swam?

942
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 9: Come on in the water. I bet he thought he

943
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 9: killed with that man. He walked off stage and he

944
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 9: was like, jo see what I said? I said. I

945
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 9: told him come on in. The water is warm. And

946
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 9: there was some stafford that was like boo, yeah like

947
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 9: that he thought that was so cold. I bet when

948
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 9: he walked like, come on man, you know, like be yourself,

949
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 9: like believe, say the things that you believe, living your authenticity.

950
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 9: It shows when you don't, I promise. Another thing is this.

951
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 9: I want to make sure that everybody on the right,

952
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 9: everybody everywhere, understands this. I'm gonna speak for myself. It

953
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 9: don't matter who is in the Epstein files, done with

954
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 9: all of them. There's not a person that could be

955
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,359
Speaker 9: in those files right now that I'm gonna be like, nah, man,

956
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 9: we need to stall on them out. Everybody's like, well,

957
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:53,919
Speaker 9: what happens when you when you find out that Bill

958
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 9: Clinton is in there? I'm like, what are you talking

959
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 9: what are you talking about?

960
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 7: Cares?

961
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 9: What is it? Ninety nine?

962
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 7: Who like?

963
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 9: Who cares? And I just want everyone to know this

964
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 9: because I said this on TMZ in nineteen and this

965
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:12,919
Speaker 9: is one of the things that I got in trouble

966
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:14,719
Speaker 9: from all the things I said on TMZ. I said this.

967
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,919
Speaker 9: I said, the death of Jeffrey Epstein is Washington's most

968
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 9: bipartisan accomplishment in decades. Right, And that is a thing.

969
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 9: It's a fact. Everyone is co mingled in this. I

970
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 9: want people to take a step back and look at

971
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 9: what this actually is. This is the connection that you

972
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 9: of guys have always feared. It's the elites. It's the

973
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 9: people that cover for each other. It's the people that

974
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,400
Speaker 9: make easy soft beds for each other to lie in.

975
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 9: It's the thing that you've been talking about. And when

976
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 9: people have been said been saying, hey, the left is

977
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 9: involved in this, the right is involved in this at

978
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 9: least in terms of the political structure and the political elites.

979
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 9: And they're like, no, our guys are the great guys.

980
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 9: Our guys are gonna dream the swamp. Our guys are

981
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:05,359
Speaker 9: the ones. No, it's a class thing. It's a thing

982
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 9: that's there's a political ruling class and how they get

983
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 9: on with each other. So sit back, watch it fall,

984
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 9: and don't get connected to these people. They're not the

985
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:16,480
Speaker 9: LSU Tigers, they're not the Yankees, they're not the Lakers,

986
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 9: they're not political teams. These are people with agendas, and

987
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 9: sometimes those agendas involved dealing with people like Jeffrey Epstein.

988
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 9: However horrible and disgusting that that is.

989
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 5: Yep, Van Lathon really appreciate you being here. I'm happy

990
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:33,839
Speaker 5: to have you back anytime soon.

991
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 7: Jack.

992
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 9: I want to tell Saga something. When I get up

993
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 9: and I do my Andrew Huberman thing, when I walk

994
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 9: around the neighborhood, there's something else I do in the morning, Saga,

995
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 9: and you're not gonna like it. In the morning, I

996
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 9: soga with something else. I'm about to go go get

997
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 9: into it right now. Don't get mad. I'm still productive.

998
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 9: There's something else I like to do, Sager. I want to.

999
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 9: I want you to come on and tell me mean

1000
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 9: why generations of Lathan's are wrong. I believe in them.

1001
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:06,280
Speaker 9: We've been doing this for a long time, Sager.

1002
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 5: This would be a fun segment that we have to

1003
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 5: get you on with. Sager.

1004
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be good.

1005
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 9: Actually, no problem.

1006
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 4: Thank you guys that we're definitely gonna make it happen.

1007
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 4: I take it easy and enjoy whatever you're up to.

1008
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 9: Next. Thank you every morning, same time. Peace.

1009
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:27,440
Speaker 3: We are joined now by Nicholas Eberstatt, who's the author

1010
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 3: of the new essay collection called Human Arithme Arithmetic, very

1011
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 3: very interesting new book. Nicholas eberstat thank you so much

1012
00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 3: for joining us here on Breaking Points this morning. We

1013
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:41,359
Speaker 3: appreciate it.

1014
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 7: Hey, thanks for inviting me.

1015
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, I wanted to start with this section

1016
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 3: here from the introduction of the book, where you talk

1017
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 3: about how the damage from America's men without work problem,

1018
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 3: with which you have written extensively on what radiates outward

1019
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 3: their unnatural condition makes for slower economic growth, wider income

1020
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 3: and wealth gaps, increased welfare dependent they reduce social mobility,

1021
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 3: more fragile families, and a weaker civil society. And you

1022
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:07,759
Speaker 3: go on make some really interesting points here. But I

1023
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:11,280
Speaker 3: wanted to ask that in the context of this news report,

1024
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:13,319
Speaker 3: we can put this from Wall Street Journal up on

1025
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 3: the screen. The headline here, Companies predict twenty twenty six

1026
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 3: will be the worst college grad job market in five years,

1027
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:22,439
Speaker 3: and I thought this was a good place to start, Nick,

1028
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 3: because you've been following this particular problem and actually you've

1029
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:31,280
Speaker 3: been helping us understand it with data and explanations socioeconomic

1030
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:34,239
Speaker 3: explanations for a long time. It seems as though this

1031
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 3: problem is poised to get worse. But I'm curious if

1032
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 3: you agree with that what you're seeing in the data

1033
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 3: right now and how people should be thinking about it, Well, it.

1034
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:46,800
Speaker 7: Would be a little bit more helpful if the government

1035
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 7: were actually producing the monthly FATA on the jobs report

1036
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 7: that we kind of like to analyze. But we've been

1037
00:56:56,880 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 7: seeing a gradual flight from work by men and by

1038
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:07,399
Speaker 7: older people that the other older people part is new.

1039
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 7: We're also seeing a somewhat weaker job market now, and

1040
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:23,160
Speaker 7: that's probably not surprising given some of the uncertainties real

1041
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 7: and perhaps needless that we see in the in the

1042
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 7: job market now, in the economic outlook. Some of this

1043
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 7: is policy created, some of this is business cycle. I

1044
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 7: don't think I would make generalizations about long term trends

1045
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:42,880
Speaker 7: from a single year. Let's just say that.

1046
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, so what are you seeing overall when

1047
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 4: it comes to when it comes to young men and

1048
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 4: what has surprised you, and as anything surprised you about it,

1049
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 4: as somebody who's been kind of monitoring this for some time.

1050
00:57:57,120 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, the only thing that a surprise is

1051
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:04,360
Speaker 7: that so many people seem to be surprised by it.

1052
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 7: This didn't start yesterday. This is a historical trend that's

1053
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 7: been underway since the nineteen sixties. But because we are

1054
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 7: still fighting the Last war with our employment numbers, our

1055
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 7: jobs reports were our framework was developed in thirty nine

1056
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 7: and forty to track the Great Depression when it would

1057
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 7: have seemed outlandish to think that a guy who didn't

1058
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 7: have a job wouldn't be looking for one. So we

1059
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 7: have a set of numbers that are great for looking

1060
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 7: at unemployment. But nowadays, for every guy who's out of

1061
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 7: work and looking for a job, they're over three who

1062
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 7: are not looking for work. And if you are using

1063
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 7: just the unemployment metric, you're missing over three quarters of

1064
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 7: the problem. We have a work rate for twenty five

1065
00:58:56,640 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 7: to fifty four year old guys today that is basically

1066
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 7: at the nineteen forty level, which is the tail end

1067
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 7: of the Great Depression. So we've got a Great Depression

1068
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 7: scale problem for work for guys. And if we if

1069
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 7: we don't look at it, we're going to be surprised

1070
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 7: by a lot of other things that are happening in America.

1071
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 3: And it's amazing how it lurks under the surface and

1072
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 3: gets so little attention in the ways that you describe

1073
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 3: it because you've studied for a long time the effect,

1074
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 3: particularly the de industrialization, but also you know, welfare programs,

1075
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 3: and you and I may disagree with that with Ryan

1076
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 3: on that, but if we focus on de industrialization just

1077
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:40,439
Speaker 3: specifically with this AI transformation of the economy coming, we've

1078
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 3: seen the effects that you know, these these rapid changes

1079
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 3: in jobs have had, and you know, places like where

1080
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 3: I'm from, the rest belt and outside Milwaukee, for example.

1081
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 3: Is that something people seem like they're about to replicate

1082
00:59:56,800 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 3: at an even larger scale with AI. Howard, are you

1083
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 3: thinking about the changes that are about to appear like

1084
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 3: they're about to happen in the American economy with the

1085
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 3: examples we've seen in the last several decades.

1086
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 7: I don't want to make a fool of myself in

1087
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 7: front of you by making categorical predictions about AI, because

1088
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 7: it's evolving so rapidly that I'm not sure that anybody

1089
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 7: knows exactly where it's going to be in five years,

1090
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 7: much less fifteen years. What we can say in general,

1091
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:31,600
Speaker 7: looking at past technological innovations is that people who have

1092
01:00:32,000 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 7: skills are able to kind of harness the new technologies

1093
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 7: and multiply their productivity and their incomes, and people who

1094
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 7: don't have skills are more likely to be displaced. So

1095
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 7: under any circumstances, we'd want to be skilling up our

1096
01:00:48,920 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 7: young people. But in the face of this this new

1097
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 7: AI wave, that makes it, I think even more imperative.

1098
01:00:57,480 --> 01:01:00,840
Speaker 7: I should say that one thing we also about what's

1099
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 7: going on in the United States is the extraordinary variety

1100
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 7: disparity of circumstances from one community to the next. When

1101
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 7: I was a young guy, we talk about the Deep

1102
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 7: South or Appalachia or later the rust Belt. But again

1103
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 7: this is something that kind of escapes us because we

1104
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 7: don't collect good information around all the time. Three quarters

1105
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 7: of the difference in work rates and workforce participation rates

1106
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:36,959
Speaker 7: for young adults for young guys now within states. I mean,

1107
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 7: you go ten miles and you find radically different employment

1108
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 7: prospects community prospects all within given states in the USA,

1109
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 7: And we're kind of blind to this because number one,

1110
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 7: we don't collect the right information for it. Our information

1111
01:01:55,760 --> 01:02:02,160
Speaker 7: systems are way behind the times. Number two, we need

1112
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 7: journalists who will actually go out and talk to human

1113
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 7: beings and take a bus and go from one community

1114
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 7: to the next, because doing that you get the kind

1115
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 7: of the human face on this nerdy sort of number

1116
01:02:14,160 --> 01:02:16,440
Speaker 7: stuff that I do in my basement, so to speak.

1117
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 4: And so you talked about there being three men, what

1118
01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 4: you say, twenty five to thirty four, twenty five to forty.

1119
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 7: Four, twenty five to fifty four as.

1120
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 5: The nish one, So twenty five to fifty four.

1121
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 4: So for every man who's looking for work and can't

1122
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 4: find it in that category, there are three men who

1123
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 4: aren't looking for work. And I think all of us

1124
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:40,160
Speaker 4: can answer this question kind of anecdotally and make our

1125
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:42,600
Speaker 4: own guesses at it. But what are the data say

1126
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:46,120
Speaker 4: about how those men are surviving? Like, how are they

1127
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 4: where are they living, how are they getting by? How

1128
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 4: are they feeding themselves? If they have families, how are

1129
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 4: they feeding their families?

1130
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 7: Well, as best as best one can tell from the

1131
01:02:56,480 --> 01:03:00,760
Speaker 7: limited information we have that's numbers and things that I

1132
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:05,919
Speaker 7: sift through, they get by with the help of their

1133
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 7: you know, by the help of their friends. They get

1134
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:13,000
Speaker 7: by with the help of their family, and they get

1135
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 7: by with the help of their uncle. And his name

1136
01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:21,560
Speaker 7: is Sam. There's over half of the guys who are

1137
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 7: neither working or looking for work seem to be obtaining

1138
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 7: one or more disability program benefits. I'd be a little

1139
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:36,160
Speaker 7: more informative about this, except that our crazy quilt of

1140
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:41,439
Speaker 7: disability programs don't talk to each other, and so there's

1141
01:03:41,480 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 7: nobody in Washington who can tell you exactly how many Americans,

1142
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:52,680
Speaker 7: much less prime age guys are obtaining these disability benefits.

1143
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 7: You can't live a princely life on them. But quite

1144
01:03:57,320 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 7: evidently it is possible to live a life where you

1145
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:04,760
Speaker 7: do not engage with you with the labor market anymore.

1146
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 3: And you also randed you have okay. You also write

1147
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:13,080
Speaker 3: sort of about the effect this has on the spiritual

1148
01:04:13,080 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 3: condition of the country, on young men in particular. And

1149
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:19,400
Speaker 3: in light of the news yesterday, we can put this

1150
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 3: on the screen. This is pro publica reporting that the

1151
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 3: Trump administration appears to have attempted to help Andrew Tate.

1152
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:29,920
Speaker 3: The propublic headline is White House intervened on behalf of

1153
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 3: ACU sex traffick or Andrew Tate during a federal investigation.

1154
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 3: But Nick, there's so much discourse at the moment about

1155
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 3: Nick Fuentes, and Andrew Tate and young men. And just

1156
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 3: because you're somebody who studied this for so long, what's

1157
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:50,080
Speaker 3: your I guess perspective on this swirl of controversy? Is

1158
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:54,760
Speaker 3: the economic well being related to the spiritual wellbeing of

1159
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,360
Speaker 3: young men in a way that seems to be fueling

1160
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:58,920
Speaker 3: any of these trends? What do you make of it?

1161
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I'm a grandfather, I'm a couple of

1162
01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:07,680
Speaker 7: generations removed from this stuff. But I've got ears and eyes.

1163
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 7: Now there's a there's a world of hurt and loneliness

1164
01:05:12,600 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 7: and despair out there that wasn't wasn't at all comparable,

1165
01:05:19,000 --> 01:05:23,680
Speaker 7: you know, Uh, when I was that age. We've got

1166
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 7: a lot more loneliness. We've got a lot more family breakdown,

1167
01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 7: We've got a lot more spiritual angst, we've got a

1168
01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 7: lot more we've got a lot more dependence on substances

1169
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 7: than we had back then. Uh. And if you are isolated,

1170
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 7: if you're cut off from work, if you're cut off

1171
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 7: from family, if for whatever reason you're cut off from

1172
01:05:47,440 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 7: faith and from your community. You suffer for that. I mean,

1173
01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:53,600
Speaker 7: there's a reason that people that a lot of people

1174
01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:58,960
Speaker 7: think that solitary confinement is a cruel and unusual punishment.

1175
01:05:59,800 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 7: So we've got to do I think we've got to

1176
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:07,160
Speaker 7: do a much better job of, you know, reaching vulnerable

1177
01:06:07,880 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 7: groups in our country. And part of what we've got

1178
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 7: going on, I think is this monumental empathy gap between

1179
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:21,360
Speaker 7: the describers and deciders in the United States and little

1180
01:06:21,360 --> 01:06:22,400
Speaker 7: people who are suffering.

1181
01:06:23,400 --> 01:06:27,680
Speaker 4: So have you seen anything work, any pilot programs, any

1182
01:06:27,880 --> 01:06:33,080
Speaker 4: any efforts by communities to prevent plant closures or like

1183
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:35,240
Speaker 4: you know, you know in places where you have like

1184
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:37,200
Speaker 4: you know, workers take you know, they're going to shut

1185
01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:39,760
Speaker 4: a plant down, or the workers take it over and

1186
01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:40,440
Speaker 4: keep it going.

1187
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:42,360
Speaker 11: I think you have some famous cases of it. A

1188
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 11: couple of a couple of a couple of thoughts. One

1189
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:50,440
Speaker 11: is we could look around the country and see where

1190
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:53,320
Speaker 11: there are healthy communities and when they're where there are

1191
01:06:53,320 --> 01:06:58,720
Speaker 11: communities that are really struggling. Because there's a there's an

1192
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 11: enormous and disparity of social success in communities in the

1193
01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 11: United States and then mostly within within states, not across states.

1194
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:16,120
Speaker 7: As I mentioned, and a little bit of a little

1195
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 7: bit of curiosity about human beings might help at this

1196
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:23,960
Speaker 7: point in our national history. I mean, that's one thing

1197
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:29,840
Speaker 7: to mention. Another thing to mention is the extraordinary problem

1198
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 7: of X cons in America, because the x cons are

1199
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 7: almost invisible in our country, and yet it is a

1200
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 7: gigantic army at this point. We don't we do not

1201
01:07:42,160 --> 01:07:46,520
Speaker 7: collect information on x cons. You know, once they're out

1202
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:52,160
Speaker 7: of the correctional system, they're invisible as far as our

1203
01:07:52,520 --> 01:07:56,600
Speaker 7: stat guys are concerned. But my own back of the

1204
01:07:56,720 --> 01:07:59,840
Speaker 7: envelope working on some I think pretty good research by

1205
01:07:59,840 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 7: some of my defiant NERD demographer colleagues suggests that one

1206
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 7: in seven adult guys has a felony record and his background.

1207
01:08:11,920 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 7: Do we really think that this has nothing to do

1208
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 7: with the circumstances that we find ourselves in today. Shouldn't

1209
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:20,600
Speaker 7: we be at least a little bit curious about this?

1210
01:08:21,280 --> 01:08:26,280
Speaker 7: How people live, how they reintegrate into society, or repair

1211
01:08:26,400 --> 01:08:32,559
Speaker 7: their job reputations. There's it's all anecdotal now, because we

1212
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:35,439
Speaker 7: don't collect the information that would allow us to see

1213
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:37,320
Speaker 7: what's working and what's not working.

1214
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:44,880
Speaker 4: Yes, I've always thought that if you actually for people

1215
01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 4: who are serving time in prison, like you know, there's

1216
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:51,519
Speaker 4: some people can get work release, but most people are

1217
01:08:51,560 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 4: going to either be reading books or be at the gym,

1218
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 4: or just be stuck, you know, either in the common

1219
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:02,719
Speaker 4: area or just you know, frittering away, you know, years

1220
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 4: and years of their life. Has there been any effort

1221
01:09:05,200 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 4: to say, you know, let's actually bring bring some genuine

1222
01:09:09,360 --> 01:09:13,919
Speaker 4: education here, like, let if you do three years, you should.

1223
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:16,600
Speaker 5: Come out, you know.

1224
01:09:15,720 --> 01:09:18,840
Speaker 4: Knowing how to do carpentry or as an electrician or

1225
01:09:18,840 --> 01:09:21,599
Speaker 4: with it, or with your associate's degree or or maybe

1226
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:25,200
Speaker 4: or an undergraduate degree. Like I know there's some programs

1227
01:09:25,240 --> 01:09:27,680
Speaker 4: in that direction that are very small, but have you

1228
01:09:27,840 --> 01:09:29,000
Speaker 4: have you seen any of that.

1229
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:32,280
Speaker 5: Work to intervene in this.

1230
01:09:34,280 --> 01:09:36,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean there are a lot of a lot

1231
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:39,960
Speaker 7: of good people working to try to help with re

1232
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 7: entry all around the country. But this is all a

1233
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:46,639
Speaker 7: sea of anecdote at this point, and it doesn't have

1234
01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:48,640
Speaker 7: to be that way. It really doesn't have to be

1235
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:54,840
Speaker 7: that way. And we talk about we talk about the

1236
01:09:54,920 --> 01:09:58,280
Speaker 7: mass and coraceration situation in the United States, and that's

1237
01:09:58,360 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 7: true as far as it goes, But what we don't

1238
01:10:01,000 --> 01:10:04,000
Speaker 7: talk about is that for every person who's in prison,

1239
01:10:04,880 --> 01:10:08,400
Speaker 7: there are ten people with a felony in their background

1240
01:10:08,920 --> 01:10:12,640
Speaker 7: in our general society, and they're just basically kind of invisible.

1241
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:16,720
Speaker 7: We can do a lot more with a lot more

1242
01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:20,400
Speaker 7: with skills. In the United States, we've got, even with

1243
01:10:20,520 --> 01:10:26,000
Speaker 7: the economy softening, we have so many millions of unfilled positions,

1244
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 7: right and some of that is a skills gap. You

1245
01:10:29,160 --> 01:10:31,760
Speaker 7: don't have to go to college to come up with

1246
01:10:32,080 --> 01:10:34,320
Speaker 7: the skill set that's going to give you a good

1247
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:37,280
Speaker 7: income and let you pay for a family and a home.

1248
01:10:39,400 --> 01:10:42,080
Speaker 3: Nick eversaid, thank you so much. The new book is

1249
01:10:42,120 --> 01:10:45,400
Speaker 3: called Human Arithmetic. We really appreciate you stopping by to

1250
01:10:45,439 --> 01:10:46,519
Speaker 3: break some of this down for us.

1251
01:10:47,080 --> 01:10:48,280
Speaker 7: Thanks so much for inviting me.

1252
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 3: Of course, really big show today, Ryan. We covered a

1253
01:10:51,320 --> 01:10:53,280
Speaker 3: lot of ground and had some great guests.

1254
01:10:53,360 --> 01:10:56,200
Speaker 5: We did. Indeed, what is.

1255
01:10:56,160 --> 01:10:58,920
Speaker 3: The saying, the real victories, the friends you may along.

1256
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:02,479
Speaker 5: That's right, exactly, very true today, Yes, indeed, and uh so,

1257
01:11:02,520 --> 01:11:03,759
Speaker 5: we'll see you on.

1258
01:11:03,920 --> 01:11:06,439
Speaker 4: Friday, and if you're a premium scer back on Thursday.

1259
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:08,400
Speaker 3: If you're a Prevement subscriber, will see you right now

1260
01:11:08,560 --> 01:11:11,679
Speaker 3: in the Live AMA. If you want to get access

1261
01:11:11,680 --> 01:11:13,400
Speaker 3: to the live amas to the second half of the

1262
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:16,600
Speaker 3: Friday Show and get the show to your inbox. No commercials,

1263
01:11:16,600 --> 01:11:19,680
Speaker 3: no ads, nothing every single day. Go ahead, head over

1264
01:11:19,680 --> 01:11:21,559
Speaker 3: to Breakingpoints dot com. We'd love to see you there.

1265
01:11:21,560 --> 01:11:24,519
Speaker 3: We love answering your questions, so head on over and

1266
01:11:24,680 --> 01:11:25,799
Speaker 3: Ryan and I will see you Friday.

1267
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:26,559
Speaker 5: See you then,