Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heeart Radio. It's the big take.
Speaker 1: I'm West Casova today. Democrats have concerns about Biden, Republicans
Speaker 1: have concerns about Trump. Yeah, hard to believe it, but
Speaker 1: we're talking about the presidential election, which, like it or not,
Speaker 1: is already underway. Former South Carolina Governor NICKI Haley has
Speaker 1: announced she's running for the Republican nomination, which makes two
Speaker 1: candidates now, including of course Donald Trump, and it's just
Speaker 1: a matter of time before others are expected to join them.
Speaker 1: At the top of that list, Ron De Santis, the
Speaker 1: Florida governor On the Democratic side. Meanwhile, lots of handwringing
Speaker 1: about whether Joe Biden, who's eighty years old, is up
Speaker 1: to the rigors of another campaign, as is all out
Speaker 1: of this is just political noise. So I asked my
Speaker 1: Bloomberg colleagues Flavia Krabs, Jackson, Joshua Green, and Jordan Fabian
Speaker 1: to tell us what we should be paying attention to
Speaker 1: and what we can ignore. Josh, it's still the dead
Speaker 1: winter and here we are already talking about politics. Is
Speaker 1: crowding into the conversation again, isn't it a bit early?
Speaker 1: It is? But I feel like this is the week
Speaker 1: that race really kind of launched in earnest, even though
Speaker 1: it didn't happen officially. You had on the Democratic side,
Speaker 1: and you had Joe Biden giving the State of the
Speaker 1: Union speech last week, trolling Republicans in a way that
Speaker 1: the White House got very excited about. That kind of
Speaker 1: excited Democratic voters. I mean, but it's being proposed by
Speaker 1: some of you, folks. The idea is that we're not
Speaker 1: going to be We're not going to be moved into
Speaker 1: being threatened to default on the dead if we don't respond, folks.
Speaker 1: And there's no question at this point, you know, barring
Speaker 1: some sort of health calamity, but that Biden is going
Speaker 1: to be the Democratic nominee. In no realistic challenger is
Speaker 1: going to emerge. He's been playing footstee a little bit
Speaker 1: about whether he's going to run, But do you think
Speaker 1: that that's just theater. I cannot find anybody in Washington
Speaker 1: that thinks that Biden is not going to run and
Speaker 1: be the Democratic nominee. Now on the other side, on
Speaker 1: the Republican side, I think things also kicked off this
Speaker 1: week because you know, you had Donald Trump stepping it
Speaker 1: up going after the guy who looks to be his
Speaker 1: main challenger, Florida Governor Ron to Santus, and you can
Speaker 1: tell that Trump is kind of getting into game shape
Speaker 1: because he called to Sanders meatball Ron, which is a
Speaker 1: new nickname. So you can tell that he's getting serious
Speaker 1: about Mexican I gotta say, I don't know, I disagree
Speaker 1: with you. That really, meatball Run. I don't even know
Speaker 1: what that means. It just conjures up an ethos of
Speaker 1: like this kind of stubby, squat guy that doesn't have
Speaker 1: a lot of charisma. And you had a lot of
Speaker 1: donors focusing on to Santas. You had sant Us at
Speaker 1: a press conference sort of obliquely taking on Trump, saying,
Speaker 1: you know, I spend my time delivering results for the
Speaker 1: people of Florida and fighting against Joe Biden. That's how
Speaker 1: I spend my time. I don't spend my time trying
Speaker 1: to smear other Republicans. Of course, you have uh, Nicki
Speaker 1: Haley now formally entering the race. I don't put up
Speaker 1: with bullys, and when you kick back, it hurts them
Speaker 1: more if you're wearing heels. I'm Nicki Haley and I'm
Speaker 1: running for presidently, which gives us a second official candidate
Speaker 1: other than Trump, and so things finally feel like they're
Speaker 1: getting started. The big question being, of course, will Trump
Speaker 1: dominate the race like he did back in or will
Speaker 1: he get some real challenges this time from other Republican hopels.
Speaker 1: So why don't we start with Donald Trump? Jordan's that
Speaker 1: question about whether Republicans want Trump or whether they want
Speaker 1: someone like De Santis or Nicki Haley is a really
Speaker 1: big open question. You have some of the top donors
Speaker 1: in the party saying we're looking elsewhere. Certainly, the donor
Speaker 1: energy and the energy among whatever is left of the
Speaker 1: traditional Republican establishment seems to be coalescing behind some sort
Speaker 1: of not Trump option. But frankly, I'm seeing a lot
Speaker 1: of parallels between what's happening now and what happened early
Speaker 1: in the twenty sixteen campaign, when you have a lot
Speaker 1: of Republican challengers kind of playing footsie with Trump, and
Speaker 1: that's left Trump a lot of latitude to lash out
Speaker 1: of people calling Ron De Santis meet ball Ron, for example,
Speaker 1: things like that. And I am waiting to see if
Speaker 1: one of these Republican challengers, Frankly, Ron de Santis, who
Speaker 1: has most of the donor momentum behind him, is he
Speaker 1: gonna start going after Donald Trump directly? Like no one
Speaker 1: has been able or willing to do that in an
Speaker 1: effective way. And that's gonna need to happen if they
Speaker 1: stand a chance of success. Because Donald Trump's still, for
Speaker 1: all of his faults, for all of the distance he's fallen,
Speaker 1: still has the biggest base of any of those candidates
Speaker 1: on a national level. No matter what it seems like,
Speaker 1: He's going to have like thirty of people behind him.
Speaker 1: And the challenge for those other candidates is building a
Speaker 1: coalition that can defeat him, Flavia, if Trump winds up
Speaker 1: in a primary situation where he's against the Santis, he's
Speaker 1: against Nicki Haley, There's a couple other candidates also, I'm
Speaker 1: getting in the race, and we have another situation, like
Speaker 1: Jordan was saying, where you have a lot of podiums
Speaker 1: up there during primary season. Does that help Trump or
Speaker 1: does it hurt him to have so many other options
Speaker 1: to be weighed against? You know, I think I think
Speaker 1: Jordan made an interesting parallel with two thousand sixteen. I mean,
Speaker 1: at some point someone is just going to have to
Speaker 1: man up, a woman up and take this guy on
Speaker 1: and everyone seems absolutely too terrified to do so. And
Speaker 1: I find myself oddly excited about the Nicki Haley prospect.
Speaker 1: I mean, she is super smart. She looks great, which
Speaker 1: I think is actually pretty important. No one wants to
Speaker 1: sort of say that directly, but you know, she's appealing
Speaker 1: in a way. She's a woman, and I don't think
Speaker 1: she's afraid of Trump, and it would be curious to
Speaker 1: me to see how he will attack her. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna have to do that very very carefully. One
Speaker 1: thing that impressed me about and you know everyone nice
Speaker 1: Beata says it honestly, like she's got no money behind her.
Speaker 1: She's she's going to get one percent. But you know
Speaker 1: something about the fact that she's coming out first. You
Speaker 1: have all these people like Mike Compare, all these sort
Speaker 1: of Mike pens. You know, they're all sort of treading
Speaker 1: very carefully around him. You know, she's she's actually going
Speaker 1: up and doing that. And when she was ambassador to
Speaker 1: the end, she was incredibly effective, and she was a
Speaker 1: cold stone assassin. I mean she was essentially doing Secretary
Speaker 1: of State job for Rex to listen. So I think
Speaker 1: she's got an edge that people you know, perhaps are
Speaker 1: not going to pick up on or not picking up
Speaker 1: right now. And she also has the experience in South
Speaker 1: Carolina as a governor, So I mean, I'm just sort
Speaker 1: of curious why many people dismissive of whether she has
Speaker 1: a chance, because I don't I think she could be
Speaker 1: a wild called Josh, last time you were on this program,
Speaker 1: you're talking about a big story you wrote about the Santis,
Speaker 1: and you said that he had found sort of a
Speaker 1: secret to taking on Trump, which was to create a
Speaker 1: portfolio of issues that were about him and not about Trump,
Speaker 1: so they didn't always have to be measuring himself against Trump.
Speaker 1: Seek normalcy, not philosophical lunacy. We will not allow reality,
Speaker 1: facts and truth to become optional. We will never surrender
Speaker 1: to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes. You die.
Speaker 1: But in that conversation you also said the big test
Speaker 1: for him is the day he has to go toe
Speaker 1: to toe with Trump and take him on. It seems
Speaker 1: like that day is approaching now. Trump is trying to
Speaker 1: force it. How does he do that well? I think, actually,
Speaker 1: for to sin Us, that day is still pretty far off.
Speaker 1: You know, there was a question before the midterm elections,
Speaker 1: would Trump take off in the polls and kind of
Speaker 1: force challengers to get in and go after him right away.
Speaker 1: And of course Republicans, especially Trump endorsed Republicans, did very
Speaker 1: badly in the midterms, and so that took all the
Speaker 1: pressure off to Santas to have to kind of get
Speaker 1: in the race. And the people I talked to in
Speaker 1: Florida now say they don't expect him to get in
Speaker 1: until May or maybe even June, which is really really
Speaker 1: late for Republican primary race. So he's kind of forestalled
Speaker 1: that day of reckoning where he has to get up
Speaker 1: on the stage look at Trump and kind of, you know,
Speaker 1: get beaten down as meat ball iron or you know,
Speaker 1: the governor who wants to slash Social Security and Medicare.
Speaker 1: Trump's people have kind of foreshadowed that they're going to
Speaker 1: make that fight against him. So yes, at some point
Speaker 1: he is going to have to face down the dragon
Speaker 1: across the debate stage, but it doesn't seem like that
Speaker 1: day is coming anytime sooner. In the meantime, to Santis
Speaker 1: has gone on and followed that playbook that I wrote
Speaker 1: about in Business Week, his big kind of cultural grievance
Speaker 1: that he seized onto hilariously was whether or not Democrats
Speaker 1: would ban natural gas stoves. That this sort of flared
Speaker 1: up thanks to a Bloomberg article that was published in
Speaker 1: January where the head of the Consumer Product Safety Commission said,
Speaker 1: you know, uh, they give off bad him Asians, maybe
Speaker 1: we'll ban them, and Republicans sor of en mask got
Speaker 1: very upset about it. De Santis introduced a natural gas
Speaker 1: stove tax break in his new budget that he rolled
Speaker 1: out to make sure that he had kind of a
Speaker 1: piece of this issue that gets Republicans all fired up.
Speaker 1: So he seems to be, you know, rolling along is
Speaker 1: the clear alternative to Trump. But unless you know, he
Speaker 1: faces him and sort of stands up to the bully,
Speaker 1: I still don't see a path to him becoming nominee.
Speaker 1: This is the thing about wrong the sounds. Is he
Speaker 1: going to travel outside of Florida. I mean that's one
Speaker 1: of the things that we all keep hearing and picking
Speaker 1: up on that you know, yes, he's got an ironclad
Speaker 1: on Florida, but the second you put him outside, people
Speaker 1: are going to be like, who is this person? I mean,
Speaker 1: he's incredibly prickly. I mean, you know, not to make
Speaker 1: some horrible balloon analogy, but I'm gonna make it the
Speaker 1: balloon that is wrong. The scantists might burst the second
Speaker 1: he steps outside of his own state. I totally agree
Speaker 1: with those points. And another point I'll make is he's
Speaker 1: not really run in too tough of a race like
Speaker 1: the governor's race. His reaction race was like a total pushover.
Speaker 1: He ran in a any comfortable Republican seat when he
Speaker 1: ran for the House. Taking on Donald Trump in a
Speaker 1: national primary, it's a totally different ball game, and he's
Speaker 1: just not, in my view, battle tested in that way,
Speaker 1: and he's gonna need to show I think that he
Speaker 1: is at some point. The other point, just building on
Speaker 1: Jordan's point, the toughest race I think he's had on
Speaker 1: the Republican side has been that the Republican primary when
Speaker 1: he was running for governor, who wasn't the favorite. The
Speaker 1: difference in that race was he had Donald Trump's endorsement
Speaker 1: and that vaulted him to the nomination and eventually to
Speaker 1: the governorship. Is one thing we know this time around
Speaker 1: is that Ron de Santez is not going to have
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's endorsement. Well, Jordan, one thing that Trump isn't
Speaker 1: going to have that we alluded to earlier is a
Speaker 1: lot of the big money. In sixteen, he got a
Speaker 1: lot of small donations, but he also had money from
Speaker 1: the big people, like the Cokes, like the Club for Growth,
Speaker 1: and those places are now openly looking elsewhere. Does he
Speaker 1: have enough money this time, even if, as you say,
Speaker 1: he pulls along, say thirty to forty scent of Republicans sentiment,
Speaker 1: it's a great point west and right now, I say no.
Speaker 1: Our colleagues of Bloomberg had a great story about how
Speaker 1: his fundraising total for the first part of the race
Speaker 1: here has been really lackluster. And as you pointed out,
Speaker 1: he also doesn't have the big donors behind him, so
Speaker 1: he's not getting small dollars, he's not getting big dollars.
Speaker 1: Will he self fund He was really reluctant to do
Speaker 1: that in sen I don't know what his finances look
Speaker 1: like right now. I don't imagine they're as good as
Speaker 1: they were at that point in time, So he is
Speaker 1: facing I would imagine a bit of a cash crunch.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, look, if he gets in
Speaker 1: the race and really shows that he has the energy
Speaker 1: and is looking like the front runner, you might see
Speaker 1: more small dollar no nations come in. Maybe some of
Speaker 1: those big donors who are saying, now I'm not on board,
Speaker 1: decide to change your mind and switch horses in the
Speaker 1: middle of the race. Love, do you think that Trump's
Speaker 1: legal problems, which there are many, and he's battling them
Speaker 1: on a lot of fronts, and the fact that he
Speaker 1: seems just unable to get out of the past, Like
Speaker 1: every time you say hello him, he tells you that
Speaker 1: he won the election as like a problem. I'm going
Speaker 1: to answer that question as an Italian. He is like
Speaker 1: Sylvia b Lsconi, never gotten the way of Sylvia Belsconi,
Speaker 1: all the problems that he had. And I actually don't
Speaker 1: think voters care about Trump's legal problems, and I think
Speaker 1: everyone's slightly confused by them. There's so many of them.
Speaker 1: When we come back our esteem panels predictions for in
Speaker 1: order to make America graded glorious again, I am tonight
Speaker 1: announcing my candidacy for President of the United States. Al Right,
Speaker 1: so I'll ask an unfair question. Does Donald Trump battle
Speaker 1: his way to the end end wind up the Republican nominee.
Speaker 1: I'll start with you, Josh. I want to dodge that
Speaker 1: question by saying that I think it depends on the
Speaker 1: size of the field and who ultimately gets into the race.
Speaker 1: I mean, as I think Jordan said, Donald Trump is
Speaker 1: always going to have thirty of the party, and if
Speaker 1: it comes down to one run race between Trump and
Speaker 1: De Santis, then no, I don't think Trump does become
Speaker 1: the nominee. But if you've got a field that includes
Speaker 1: you know, Nicki Haley and she sticks around, and Mike
Speaker 1: Pompeo and he sticks around, and Mike Pence and he
Speaker 1: sticks around, and maybe a couple other governors to you know,
Speaker 1: maybe you get some out of left field, you know,
Speaker 1: Larry Hogan or Chris Noon, a moderate Republican governors, former
Speaker 1: governors of Maryland and New Hampshire, you know, and that
Speaker 1: splits the anti Trump vote. Then you can have a
Speaker 1: replay of what happened in sixteen when Trump was never,
Speaker 1: at least not early on, the preferred candidate of Republican voters,
Speaker 1: but got enough of a plurality that he wind up
Speaker 1: winning the nomination. I'm gonna be boring and agree with Josh.
Speaker 1: I think he had a great anaces there to Republicans.
Speaker 1: Fatal flaw in sixteen was not coalescing around an anti
Speaker 1: Trump candidate, and if they don't kill less around a
Speaker 1: main rival to Trump, I could see him winning if
Speaker 1: they all throw their energy and most importantly donor money
Speaker 1: and organization behind a single candidate. Trump has been significantly
Speaker 1: to the extent that I think that he won't win.
Speaker 1: Do you think that that's true? If he winds up
Speaker 1: getting indicted for winn or another things, I do think
Speaker 1: that will matter on the margins. There's definitely a component
Speaker 1: of Republican primary voters who are tired of Trump and
Speaker 1: his drama and his tweets, and that would certainly weigh
Speaker 1: heavily or more heavily among those sorts of people. But
Speaker 1: you know, again, if it's Trump versus Ron de Santis,
Speaker 1: then yeah, I think that that tilts the balance even
Speaker 1: more towards De Santis. But if the big field and
Speaker 1: everybody spread out and the ni Trump vote doesn't coalesce
Speaker 1: to any particular non Trump Canada, then I don't think
Speaker 1: it will hurt him that much. And just one more
Speaker 1: thing on that, I think an indictment would matter a
Speaker 1: lot more in a general election that it wanted in
Speaker 1: a Republican primary. Republican voters have shown pretty consistently they
Speaker 1: don't really care or actually think that these criminal investigations
Speaker 1: of Trump actually make them support him more So I
Speaker 1: don't think that's so much of an issue. Well, I'm
Speaker 1: going to disagree with the two gentlemen, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to say that Rond the Scantis is going to stitch
Speaker 1: this up and someone like Nicki Haley, former governor of
Speaker 1: South Carolina, and Tim Scott, Senator of South Carolina, one
Speaker 1: of those could be the VEEP. And I think a
Speaker 1: lot of the race, as it amplifies, is really going
Speaker 1: to be about running for that number two spot. And
Speaker 1: if you've got someone like run, the sentis unless he
Speaker 1: sort of messes up as we've discussed outside of his
Speaker 1: own state, and you've got a diversity ticket in the
Speaker 1: shape of you know, either Nicky Haley or Tim Scott,
Speaker 1: I think you've got something that conservative voters are really
Speaker 1: going to go for and they will be able to
Speaker 1: turn the leaf on Donald Trump. What about this idea
Speaker 1: that you know, Trump doesn't get the nomination or he's
Speaker 1: not doing well, so he takes his ball and goes
Speaker 1: home and forms an independent party. What is the scenario there?
Speaker 1: It's a real danger for Republicans. If Trump decides to
Speaker 1: run as a third party candidate, there might be some
Speaker 1: legal obstacles for him. There are these things called sore
Speaker 1: loser laws, and a lot of states that if he's
Speaker 1: decides to run in the Republican field doesn't win the nomination,
Speaker 1: he might be barred or have a tough time getting
Speaker 1: on the ballot as an independent candidate in Some states
Speaker 1: have those and some don't. Right, That's right, So some
Speaker 1: states have them, some states don't. So I'm just throwing
Speaker 1: out a hypothetical number here. But let's say he gets
Speaker 1: on the ballot in twenty states. That still poses the
Speaker 1: problem for Republicans. If those states happen to be states
Speaker 1: and are swing states, are gonna really count toward the
Speaker 1: electoral College vote. But even putting all that legal mishmash aside,
Speaker 1: just having Donald Trump on the sideline storing care neades
Speaker 1: at the Republican nominee is gonna be a tough thing
Speaker 1: for him. A lot of voters might just decide I'm
Speaker 1: not for this guy, you know, rodes Santist Nicky Haley.
Speaker 1: Whoever it is, Donald Trump's on the ballot, I'm staying
Speaker 1: home and that's a big problem for Republicans. Okay, so
Speaker 1: we've talked all about the future of Donald Trump run
Speaker 1: to santists, Nicky Haley and others for the Republican side.
Speaker 1: What about Joe Biden Jordan's you cover the Biden White House.
Speaker 1: You had said that you think that he is absolutely
Speaker 1: going to be the nominee, and yet there are a
Speaker 1: lot of Democrats who worry that he is not as
Speaker 1: fleet of foot as he needs to be in order
Speaker 1: to go up against Rond de Sandus or even Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: That's right, West, I think two things can be true.
Speaker 1: Josh said something earlier that I have found also in
Speaker 1: my reporting, I have not talked to a single person
Speaker 1: in the White House or in Biden's orbit that thinks
Speaker 1: he's not going to run. They're all on board with
Speaker 1: him running, and so that's gonna happen, and it's gonna
Speaker 1: happen soon. That being said, that doesn't mean that he's
Speaker 1: gonna have the easiest time getting the voters really energized
Speaker 1: again about voting for him, even though he's not running
Speaker 1: in a competitive primary. There are a lot of doubts,
Speaker 1: as you talked about West about you know, his age,
Speaker 1: also people aren't seeing really his accomplishments. They don't think
Speaker 1: that he's really done a lot for them, even though
Speaker 1: he did rack up a lot of legislative accomplishments in
Speaker 1: his first two years in office. So the main task
Speaker 1: for Joe Biden, which is gonna be difficult for an
Speaker 1: eight year old man, is going to be getting people
Speaker 1: excited to vote for him again. And also that's going
Speaker 1: to be even more difficult if he's not facing Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: And so that's gonna be the thing that I think
Speaker 1: his political team is going to have their eyes on
Speaker 1: going forward to the next few months. Flavia Jordan's Josh,
Speaker 1: please don't go anywhere. We'll keep talking after the break. Look,
Speaker 1: I'm a great respect or fate. I would be completely
Speaker 1: thoroughly honest with the American people if I thought there
Speaker 1: was any health problem, anything that would keep me from
Speaker 1: being able to do the job. And uh, and so
Speaker 1: well we'll see. Uh. But you know, I just I
Speaker 1: think people have to just watch me, Flavia. One thing
Speaker 1: that happened in as a result of the pandemic was
Speaker 1: that Biden wasn't out and about as much. Some people
Speaker 1: said that was liability. Now looking back, maybe it actually
Speaker 1: turned out to be an advantage because Biden sometimes is
Speaker 1: a bit stumbly when he's speaking. There seemed to be
Speaker 1: some concerns that handling the grueling travel and speech schedule
Speaker 1: of a presidential race could be a problem. I mean,
Speaker 1: and it is. And one sort of feels also kind
Speaker 1: of bad talking about it because you know, on the
Speaker 1: surface of it, he's just been a very successful president.
Speaker 1: He's accomplished quite a bit. So why are we all
Speaker 1: sort of talking about his age because it is this
Speaker 1: enormous elephant in the room that you just can't get
Speaker 1: away from. Yeah. Our producer Moe Barrow here in Washington
Speaker 1: asked voters if they think Biden's age is a big
Speaker 1: deal or not. Here's what they had to say. I
Speaker 1: voted for Biden when he was running for president. I
Speaker 1: probably will vote for him again. Yes, So I know
Speaker 1: folks make a big deal about his age, But I
Speaker 1: think with age comes wisdom, um, and the policies I
Speaker 1: think are splitting us in the right direction. So I'd
Speaker 1: like to see him continue uh this effort for the
Speaker 1: next four years. If Biden was to win uh in,
Speaker 1: I think we'll be in the same predicaments we are
Speaker 1: in today. So I'm not a Republican, so I don't
Speaker 1: want anyone on that side to win. But it's quite
Speaker 1: in the best choice. I don't really know. I'm perfectly
Speaker 1: fine with it. I think he's doing a great job
Speaker 1: so far. I'll say that. You know, Democrats are renowned
Speaker 1: for their handwringing. If Democrats weren't anxious about his age,
Speaker 1: they'd find something else to worry about. But especially in
Speaker 1: a general election, you know, as many people are voting
Speaker 1: against the nominee that they don't like, as opposed to
Speaker 1: for the nominee that represents their party. And we saw
Speaker 1: that in the poll numbers, a majority of Democrats were
Speaker 1: casting a vote against Donald Trump, not for Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, you know, Democrats
Speaker 1: could nominate Ham Sandwich and he'd still get you fifty
Speaker 1: maybe of the vote if the guy that the Ham
Speaker 1: Sandwich was running against with named Donald Trump. And I
Speaker 1: don't think that that's gonna change regardless of who the
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee is or what his flaws are, you know,
Speaker 1: barring some really serious setback. I did want it build
Speaker 1: off one thing flav said, this is on the age question.
Speaker 1: Biden loves to say in response to the age question,
Speaker 1: watch me, and what I've seen is when his staff
Speaker 1: kind of keep him buttoned up reading off a teleprompter,
Speaker 1: he sounds and looks really stumbly. I think it's very
Speaker 1: hard for him to speak off a teleprompter. I think
Speaker 1: it's hard for anybody to speak off a teleprompter. He
Speaker 1: has a stutter as as well, established probably making it
Speaker 1: even more difficult for him. But when he gets off
Speaker 1: the cuff, he has more life and energy to him.
Speaker 1: Look at what happened during the State of the Union
Speaker 1: when Republicans started yelling at him about his accusations on
Speaker 1: their plans on Medicare and Social Security. He got really
Speaker 1: engaged and that was back and forth. I think he
Speaker 1: ended up winning. The Republicans look very small, and so
Speaker 1: while there's this nervous energy about him getting back on
Speaker 1: the trail and how much he's going to be able
Speaker 1: to do, He's shown that he can thrive in that situation.
Speaker 1: I think the question is, will you have the stamina
Speaker 1: to keep it up for a full campaign all the
Speaker 1: way until so? Do you think that it's a mistake
Speaker 1: that his staff treats him with such care that they
Speaker 1: really should loosen up and just let him. You know,
Speaker 1: they'll let Joe b Joe, I do. I think that
Speaker 1: was a big part of his appeal in twenty is
Speaker 1: that you had running against Donald Trump a politician who
Speaker 1: also wasn't afraid to go off the cuff, but in
Speaker 1: a way that was a little safer and a little
Speaker 1: less you know, non PC aggressive crazy, and they in
Speaker 1: the White House have really not allowed him the opportunity
Speaker 1: to do that. As much that being said, it does
Speaker 1: come with risks. They're afraid of him making a gaff
Speaker 1: and we've seen him do that in Poland he said, uh,
Speaker 1: this is of Vondery Muputin, should no longer be the
Speaker 1: leader of Russia. That was something they had to clean up.
Speaker 1: But do most American voters disagree with that. No. A
Speaker 1: lot of times when he makes gaffs, he says things
Speaker 1: that you know, you're average American would believe, but politicians
Speaker 1: aren't allowed to say, and that I think it's an
Speaker 1: asset for a politician in this era. That's a great point.
Speaker 1: I think that we saw in with Trump and then
Speaker 1: again in twenty that the bar for what reporters perceived
Speaker 1: to be a race altering gaff is much much, much,
Speaker 1: much higher um than we imagine in the past. If
Speaker 1: you go back to the nineteen eighties nineteen nineties, George H. W.
Speaker 1: Bush was looking at his watch during a debate. Was
Speaker 1: a story that dominated the press for for days, for weeks, whatever,
Speaker 1: because it looked like he was bored and just kind
Speaker 1: of wanted it exactly and was you know, couldn't be
Speaker 1: bothered to show up for this town hall debate and
Speaker 1: pay attention. But then, you know, you fast forward to
Speaker 1: sixteen and look at something like Trump and the Access
Speaker 1: Hollywood tape. One would expect that that would be a
Speaker 1: career ender for anybody, and yet you know, it lasted
Speaker 1: to three four days with Trump and then it was
Speaker 1: on to something else and he was managed to get
Speaker 1: himself elected. I was just going to jump in actually
Speaker 1: and just say that I don't think the age thing
Speaker 1: around Joe Biden would be such a big deal if
Speaker 1: people were more excited about who his VEEP was. You know,
Speaker 1: the idea is like, Okay, should something terrible happen, you know,
Speaker 1: we've got Kamala Harris, who everyone loves, and you know
Speaker 1: we're in good hands. No one is excited about her
Speaker 1: not voters, And I think it's worth sort of having
Speaker 1: to think about why that is, because on the cards,
Speaker 1: she is supremely well prepared, but she hasn't been able
Speaker 1: to sort of some how energize voters in a way
Speaker 1: that perhaps would would ease people's minds and to sort
Speaker 1: of raises questions which you know, I'm often asked about.
Speaker 1: It's like, what is the bench? You know, where is
Speaker 1: the talent? Like if you look at Republican field, you've
Speaker 1: got someone like around the standards, but there are a
Speaker 1: bunch of them. Uh, And there's a perception that, you know,
Speaker 1: has this party kind of does it not have that
Speaker 1: young talent. So I'm just sort of curious whether that's
Speaker 1: actually a fair assessment or whether, you know, people just
Speaker 1: don't want to kind of step up and show themselves.
Speaker 1: It's interesting. I think when a party is in power,
Speaker 1: the bench necessarily with us because there's a limit on
Speaker 1: how far people can go. We saw this during the
Speaker 1: Obama administration. You know the bench. I remember in twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen everyone was talking about how short Democratic bench was.
Speaker 1: We also heard this going back to two thousand and eight.
Speaker 1: After the Bush White House, they had to Dredge up
Speaker 1: John McCain to run against Barack Obama. So I think
Speaker 1: all parties in power have. The problem here is that
Speaker 1: you have these lingering doubts about Joe Biden. And to
Speaker 1: Flower's point about people would feel safer if there was
Speaker 1: someone waiting in the wings, waiting to take over, someone
Speaker 1: younger and of a new generation, people would feel a
Speaker 1: lot better about that. And so that problem is just
Speaker 1: getting highlighted more now because of the circumstances that we're in.
Speaker 1: And there's also a structural problem. I think when you're
Speaker 1: the president and your party is in power, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's no clean and easy way to swap out Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris for any of the other Democrats. And if this
Speaker 1: were a wide open primary, actually do think Democrats would
Speaker 1: have a pretty decent bench. You'd have Pete Buddha judge.
Speaker 1: You'd have potentially governors like Roy Cooper and North Carolina Westmore,
Speaker 1: you know, my new governor and in Maryland, and all
Speaker 1: sorts of younger names who have been waiting in the wings,
Speaker 1: including people in Congress. Ro'canna I think wants to kind
Speaker 1: of take on the mantle of Bernie Sanders and run
Speaker 1: when he gets a chance. But of course none of
Speaker 1: these people can do that if Joe Biden is going
Speaker 1: to run again, in which everybody in the party thinks
Speaker 1: that he is. So the problem that I hear from
Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats who are worried about Kamala Harris's
Speaker 1: lack of strong appeal is that there's they're really trapped
Speaker 1: with it. There's nothing they can do to sort of
Speaker 1: swap her out, and so the best thing to do
Speaker 1: is just kind of move on and try and focus
Speaker 1: on it. You don't see any circumstance under which Biden
Speaker 1: would go with a different vice president this time. None
Speaker 1: the deed him alive. I mean, it would be how
Speaker 1: would you do it? And doubly so, no Democrat would
Speaker 1: ever try to make the argument that the Democrats need
Speaker 1: a new voice and run against the sitting president. I
Speaker 1: don't think you're going to have a reprise of ninety
Speaker 1: where Ted Kennedy primary as sitting president and Jimmy Carter.
Speaker 1: All of the top tier names like Gavin Newsom, the
Speaker 1: governor of California, Illinois Governor GV. Pritzker, who people talk
Speaker 1: about are as being ready to run now are saying
Speaker 1: they're not doing that as long as Joe Biden's in
Speaker 1: the race. So you're a little wishy wash end whether
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee will be Trump, decentis or someone else.
Speaker 1: But you all seem to think that Biden is the
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee. Is Joe Biden re elected president? In Fly
Speaker 1: to You? Yes? Um, I know that's a very short answer,
Speaker 1: and I think it's just maybe just the sequel of You,
Speaker 1: and it's not as thrilling a film. But I think
Speaker 1: the same dynamics are going to be in play. I
Speaker 1: still think it's going to be incredibly close, and I
Speaker 1: think he will prevail. But I'm making a very important
Speaker 1: assumption here. I'm sort of assuming that it's going to
Speaker 1: try if Trump is his rival, that will happen. If
Speaker 1: it is run the scientist, I think it gets far
Speaker 1: more complicated, but I think he would still prevail. I
Speaker 1: also say, yes, I agree with all the reasons Flavia said,
Speaker 1: and also just historically in American politics, it's very hard
Speaker 1: to unseat an incumbent president. For Donald Trump, it took
Speaker 1: a pandemic and you know, race riots, and also himself
Speaker 1: getting infected with the virus to kind of stamp out
Speaker 1: his chance of the second term. A lot of people
Speaker 1: believe that, you know, if you're running Trump in February,
Speaker 1: in that election, he probably wins the second term too,
Speaker 1: despite all the controversies and craziness of his first term.
Speaker 1: So that's just something to think about as Joe Biden
Speaker 1: launches his re election effort here with a lot of
Speaker 1: doubts swirling around him. Yeah, I think if Trump is
Speaker 1: a Republican nominee, then Biden gets reelected fairly easier. I's
Speaker 1: anybody else, especially as a younger, more kind of generationally
Speaker 1: appealing ticket, maybe a De Santis and a hail Or,
Speaker 1: a Tim Scott and a Hailer or somebody like that,
Speaker 1: then I think the job gets much much harder, because
Speaker 1: we do have lots of poll numbers showing that people
Speaker 1: are uncomfortable about Biden's age and they're not happy with
Speaker 1: the direction of the economy. Historically, that's been the recipe
Speaker 1: for a one term president. So I think if there
Speaker 1: is a viable, non extreme alternative or repellan ticket that
Speaker 1: it's perceived to be non trumping a little bit more normal,
Speaker 1: that Biden really might end up being a one term president.
Speaker 1: Josh Flavia Jordan's thanks for being here, great fun. Thank you, thanks, thanks,
Speaker 1: thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take.
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Speaker 1: We're taking Monday off for the US holiday, will be
Speaker 1: back on Tuesday with another Big Take. Have a great weekend.