1 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heeart Radio. It's the big take. 2 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: I'm West Casova today. Democrats have concerns about Biden, Republicans 3 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:26,479 Speaker 1: have concerns about Trump. Yeah, hard to believe it, but 4 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: we're talking about the presidential election, which, like it or not, 5 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 1: is already underway. Former South Carolina Governor NICKI Haley has 6 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: announced she's running for the Republican nomination, which makes two 7 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: candidates now, including of course Donald Trump, and it's just 8 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: a matter of time before others are expected to join them. 9 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: At the top of that list, Ron De Santis, the 10 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Florida governor On the Democratic side. Meanwhile, lots of handwringing 11 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: about whether Joe Biden, who's eighty years old, is up 12 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: to the rigors of another campaign, as is all out 13 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: of this is just political noise. So I asked my 14 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg colleagues Flavia Krabs, Jackson, Joshua Green, and Jordan Fabian 15 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: to tell us what we should be paying attention to 16 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: and what we can ignore. Josh, it's still the dead 17 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: winter and here we are already talking about politics. Is 18 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: crowding into the conversation again, isn't it a bit early? 19 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: It is? But I feel like this is the week 20 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: that race really kind of launched in earnest, even though 21 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: it didn't happen officially. You had on the Democratic side, 22 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: and you had Joe Biden giving the State of the 23 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: Union speech last week, trolling Republicans in a way that 24 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 1: the White House got very excited about. That kind of 25 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: excited Democratic voters. I mean, but it's being proposed by 26 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: some of you, folks. The idea is that we're not 27 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: going to be We're not going to be moved into 28 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: being threatened to default on the dead if we don't respond, folks. 29 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: And there's no question at this point, you know, barring 30 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: some sort of health calamity, but that Biden is going 31 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: to be the Democratic nominee. In no realistic challenger is 32 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: going to emerge. He's been playing footstee a little bit 33 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: about whether he's going to run, But do you think 34 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: that that's just theater. I cannot find anybody in Washington 35 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: that thinks that Biden is not going to run and 36 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: be the Democratic nominee. Now on the other side, on 37 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: the Republican side, I think things also kicked off this 38 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: week because you know, you had Donald Trump stepping it 39 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: up going after the guy who looks to be his 40 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: main challenger, Florida Governor Ron to Santus, and you can 41 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: tell that Trump is kind of getting into game shape 42 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: because he called to Sanders meatball Ron, which is a 43 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: new nickname. So you can tell that he's getting serious 44 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: about Mexican I gotta say, I don't know, I disagree 45 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: with you. That really, meatball Run. I don't even know 46 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: what that means. It just conjures up an ethos of 47 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,679 Speaker 1: like this kind of stubby, squat guy that doesn't have 48 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: a lot of charisma. And you had a lot of 49 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: donors focusing on to Santas. You had sant Us at 50 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: a press conference sort of obliquely taking on Trump, saying, 51 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: you know, I spend my time delivering results for the 52 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: people of Florida and fighting against Joe Biden. That's how 53 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: I spend my time. I don't spend my time trying 54 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: to smear other Republicans. Of course, you have uh, Nicki 55 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: Haley now formally entering the race. I don't put up 56 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: with bullys, and when you kick back, it hurts them 57 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: more if you're wearing heels. I'm Nicki Haley and I'm 58 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: running for presidently, which gives us a second official candidate 59 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: other than Trump, and so things finally feel like they're 60 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: getting started. The big question being, of course, will Trump 61 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: dominate the race like he did back in or will 62 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: he get some real challenges this time from other Republican hopels. 63 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: So why don't we start with Donald Trump? Jordan's that 64 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: question about whether Republicans want Trump or whether they want 65 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 1: someone like De Santis or Nicki Haley is a really 66 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: big open question. You have some of the top donors 67 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: in the party saying we're looking elsewhere. Certainly, the donor 68 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: energy and the energy among whatever is left of the 69 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: traditional Republican establishment seems to be coalescing behind some sort 70 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: of not Trump option. But frankly, I'm seeing a lot 71 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: of parallels between what's happening now and what happened early 72 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: in the twenty sixteen campaign, when you have a lot 73 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: of Republican challengers kind of playing footsie with Trump, and 74 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: that's left Trump a lot of latitude to lash out 75 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: of people calling Ron De Santis meet ball Ron, for example, 76 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: things like that. And I am waiting to see if 77 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,720 Speaker 1: one of these Republican challengers, Frankly, Ron de Santis, who 78 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: has most of the donor momentum behind him, is he 79 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: gonna start going after Donald Trump directly? Like no one 80 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: has been able or willing to do that in an 81 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: effective way. And that's gonna need to happen if they 82 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 1: stand a chance of success. Because Donald Trump's still, for 83 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: all of his faults, for all of the distance he's fallen, 84 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: still has the biggest base of any of those candidates 85 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: on a national level. No matter what it seems like, 86 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 1: He's going to have like thirty of people behind him. 87 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: And the challenge for those other candidates is building a 88 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: coalition that can defeat him, Flavia, if Trump winds up 89 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: in a primary situation where he's against the Santis, he's 90 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: against Nicki Haley, There's a couple other candidates also, I'm 91 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 1: getting in the race, and we have another situation, like 92 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: Jordan was saying, where you have a lot of podiums 93 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: up there during primary season. Does that help Trump or 94 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: does it hurt him to have so many other options 95 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: to be weighed against? You know, I think I think 96 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: Jordan made an interesting parallel with two thousand sixteen. I mean, 97 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: at some point someone is just going to have to 98 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: man up, a woman up and take this guy on 99 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: and everyone seems absolutely too terrified to do so. And 100 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: I find myself oddly excited about the Nicki Haley prospect. 101 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 1: I mean, she is super smart. She looks great, which 102 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: I think is actually pretty important. No one wants to 103 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 1: sort of say that directly, but you know, she's appealing 104 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,280 Speaker 1: in a way. She's a woman, and I don't think 105 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,839 Speaker 1: she's afraid of Trump, and it would be curious to 106 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: me to see how he will attack her. I think 107 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: he's gonna have to do that very very carefully. One 108 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: thing that impressed me about and you know everyone nice 109 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: Beata says it honestly, like she's got no money behind her. 110 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: She's she's going to get one percent. But you know 111 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: something about the fact that she's coming out first. You 112 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: have all these people like Mike Compare, all these sort 113 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,239 Speaker 1: of Mike pens. You know, they're all sort of treading 114 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: very carefully around him. You know, she's she's actually going 115 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: up and doing that. And when she was ambassador to 116 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: the end, she was incredibly effective, and she was a 117 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: cold stone assassin. I mean she was essentially doing Secretary 118 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 1: of State job for Rex to listen. So I think 119 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: she's got an edge that people you know, perhaps are 120 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 1: not going to pick up on or not picking up 121 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: right now. And she also has the experience in South 122 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: Carolina as a governor, So I mean, I'm just sort 123 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: of curious why many people dismissive of whether she has 124 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: a chance, because I don't I think she could be 125 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 1: a wild called Josh, last time you were on this program, 126 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: you're talking about a big story you wrote about the Santis, 127 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: and you said that he had found sort of a 128 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: secret to taking on Trump, which was to create a 129 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: portfolio of issues that were about him and not about Trump, 130 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: so they didn't always have to be measuring himself against Trump. 131 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: Seek normalcy, not philosophical lunacy. We will not allow reality, 132 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: facts and truth to become optional. We will never surrender 133 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes. You die. 134 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: But in that conversation you also said the big test 135 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: for him is the day he has to go toe 136 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: to toe with Trump and take him on. It seems 137 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: like that day is approaching now. Trump is trying to 138 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: force it. How does he do that well? I think, actually, 139 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: for to sin Us, that day is still pretty far off. 140 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: You know, there was a question before the midterm elections, 141 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: would Trump take off in the polls and kind of 142 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: force challengers to get in and go after him right away. 143 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: And of course Republicans, especially Trump endorsed Republicans, did very 144 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: badly in the midterms, and so that took all the 145 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 1: pressure off to Santas to have to kind of get 146 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: in the race. And the people I talked to in 147 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: Florida now say they don't expect him to get in 148 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: until May or maybe even June, which is really really 149 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: late for Republican primary race. So he's kind of forestalled 150 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: that day of reckoning where he has to get up 151 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: on the stage look at Trump and kind of, you know, 152 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: get beaten down as meat ball iron or you know, 153 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,239 Speaker 1: the governor who wants to slash Social Security and Medicare. 154 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: Trump's people have kind of foreshadowed that they're going to 155 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: make that fight against him. So yes, at some point 156 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: he is going to have to face down the dragon 157 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: across the debate stage, but it doesn't seem like that 158 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 1: day is coming anytime sooner. In the meantime, to Santis 159 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: has gone on and followed that playbook that I wrote 160 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,439 Speaker 1: about in Business Week, his big kind of cultural grievance 161 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 1: that he seized onto hilariously was whether or not Democrats 162 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: would ban natural gas stoves. That this sort of flared 163 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: up thanks to a Bloomberg article that was published in 164 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: January where the head of the Consumer Product Safety Commission said, 165 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: you know, uh, they give off bad him Asians, maybe 166 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: we'll ban them, and Republicans sor of en mask got 167 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: very upset about it. De Santis introduced a natural gas 168 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: stove tax break in his new budget that he rolled 169 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: out to make sure that he had kind of a 170 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: piece of this issue that gets Republicans all fired up. 171 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: So he seems to be, you know, rolling along is 172 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: the clear alternative to Trump. But unless you know, he 173 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: faces him and sort of stands up to the bully, 174 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 1: I still don't see a path to him becoming nominee. 175 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 1: This is the thing about wrong the sounds. Is he 176 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: going to travel outside of Florida. I mean that's one 177 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: of the things that we all keep hearing and picking 178 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: up on that you know, yes, he's got an ironclad 179 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: on Florida, but the second you put him outside, people 180 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: are going to be like, who is this person? I mean, 181 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: he's incredibly prickly. I mean, you know, not to make 182 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: some horrible balloon analogy, but I'm gonna make it the 183 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: balloon that is wrong. The scantists might burst the second 184 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: he steps outside of his own state. I totally agree 185 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 1: with those points. And another point I'll make is he's 186 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: not really run in too tough of a race like 187 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: the governor's race. His reaction race was like a total pushover. 188 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: He ran in a any comfortable Republican seat when he 189 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 1: ran for the House. Taking on Donald Trump in a 190 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: national primary, it's a totally different ball game, and he's 191 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: just not, in my view, battle tested in that way, 192 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: and he's gonna need to show I think that he 193 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: is at some point. The other point, just building on 194 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: Jordan's point, the toughest race I think he's had on 195 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: the Republican side has been that the Republican primary when 196 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: he was running for governor, who wasn't the favorite. The 197 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 1: difference in that race was he had Donald Trump's endorsement 198 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:27,959 Speaker 1: and that vaulted him to the nomination and eventually to 199 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: the governorship. Is one thing we know this time around 200 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: is that Ron de Santez is not going to have 201 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's endorsement. Well, Jordan, one thing that Trump isn't 202 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: going to have that we alluded to earlier is a 203 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: lot of the big money. In sixteen, he got a 204 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 1: lot of small donations, but he also had money from 205 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: the big people, like the Cokes, like the Club for Growth, 206 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 1: and those places are now openly looking elsewhere. Does he 207 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,319 Speaker 1: have enough money this time, even if, as you say, 208 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: he pulls along, say thirty to forty scent of Republicans sentiment, 209 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: it's a great point west and right now, I say no. 210 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: Our colleagues of Bloomberg had a great story about how 211 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: his fundraising total for the first part of the race 212 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: here has been really lackluster. And as you pointed out, 213 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: he also doesn't have the big donors behind him, so 214 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: he's not getting small dollars, he's not getting big dollars. 215 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: Will he self fund He was really reluctant to do 216 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: that in sen I don't know what his finances look 217 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: like right now. I don't imagine they're as good as 218 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: they were at that point in time, So he is 219 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 1: facing I would imagine a bit of a cash crunch. 220 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: But at the same time, look, if he gets in 221 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: the race and really shows that he has the energy 222 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: and is looking like the front runner, you might see 223 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: more small dollar no nations come in. Maybe some of 224 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: those big donors who are saying, now I'm not on board, 225 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 1: decide to change your mind and switch horses in the 226 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 1: middle of the race. Love, do you think that Trump's 227 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: legal problems, which there are many, and he's battling them 228 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: on a lot of fronts, and the fact that he 229 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: seems just unable to get out of the past, Like 230 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: every time you say hello him, he tells you that 231 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: he won the election as like a problem. I'm going 232 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: to answer that question as an Italian. He is like 233 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: Sylvia b Lsconi, never gotten the way of Sylvia Belsconi, 234 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: all the problems that he had. And I actually don't 235 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,559 Speaker 1: think voters care about Trump's legal problems, and I think 236 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 1: everyone's slightly confused by them. There's so many of them. 237 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: When we come back our esteem panels predictions for in 238 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: order to make America graded glorious again, I am tonight 239 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: announcing my candidacy for President of the United States. Al Right, 240 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: so I'll ask an unfair question. Does Donald Trump battle 241 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 1: his way to the end end wind up the Republican nominee. 242 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: I'll start with you, Josh. I want to dodge that 243 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: question by saying that I think it depends on the 244 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: size of the field and who ultimately gets into the race. 245 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: I mean, as I think Jordan said, Donald Trump is 246 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: always going to have thirty of the party, and if 247 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: it comes down to one run race between Trump and 248 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: De Santis, then no, I don't think Trump does become 249 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: the nominee. But if you've got a field that includes 250 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 1: you know, Nicki Haley and she sticks around, and Mike 251 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: Pompeo and he sticks around, and Mike Pence and he 252 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: sticks around, and maybe a couple other governors to you know, 253 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: maybe you get some out of left field, you know, 254 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: Larry Hogan or Chris Noon, a moderate Republican governors, former 255 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 1: governors of Maryland and New Hampshire, you know, and that 256 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: splits the anti Trump vote. Then you can have a 257 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: replay of what happened in sixteen when Trump was never, 258 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:32,079 Speaker 1: at least not early on, the preferred candidate of Republican voters, 259 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: but got enough of a plurality that he wind up 260 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 1: winning the nomination. I'm gonna be boring and agree with Josh. 261 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: I think he had a great anaces there to Republicans. 262 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: Fatal flaw in sixteen was not coalescing around an anti 263 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: Trump candidate, and if they don't kill less around a 264 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: main rival to Trump, I could see him winning if 265 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 1: they all throw their energy and most importantly donor money 266 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: and organization behind a single candidate. Trump has been significantly 267 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:01,839 Speaker 1: to the extent that I think that he won't win. 268 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: Do you think that that's true? If he winds up 269 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: getting indicted for winn or another things, I do think 270 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: that will matter on the margins. There's definitely a component 271 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: of Republican primary voters who are tired of Trump and 272 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: his drama and his tweets, and that would certainly weigh 273 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: heavily or more heavily among those sorts of people. But 274 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: you know, again, if it's Trump versus Ron de Santis, 275 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: then yeah, I think that that tilts the balance even 276 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 1: more towards De Santis. But if the big field and 277 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: everybody spread out and the ni Trump vote doesn't coalesce 278 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: to any particular non Trump Canada, then I don't think 279 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: it will hurt him that much. And just one more 280 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: thing on that, I think an indictment would matter a 281 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: lot more in a general election that it wanted in 282 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: a Republican primary. Republican voters have shown pretty consistently they 283 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: don't really care or actually think that these criminal investigations 284 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: of Trump actually make them support him more So I 285 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: don't think that's so much of an issue. Well, I'm 286 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: going to disagree with the two gentlemen, and I'm going 287 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: to say that Rond the Scantis is going to stitch 288 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: this up and someone like Nicki Haley, former governor of 289 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: South Carolina, and Tim Scott, Senator of South Carolina, one 290 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: of those could be the VEEP. And I think a 291 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: lot of the race, as it amplifies, is really going 292 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: to be about running for that number two spot. And 293 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: if you've got someone like run, the sentis unless he 294 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: sort of messes up as we've discussed outside of his 295 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: own state, and you've got a diversity ticket in the 296 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: shape of you know, either Nicky Haley or Tim Scott, 297 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: I think you've got something that conservative voters are really 298 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: going to go for and they will be able to 299 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: turn the leaf on Donald Trump. What about this idea 300 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: that you know, Trump doesn't get the nomination or he's 301 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: not doing well, so he takes his ball and goes 302 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: home and forms an independent party. What is the scenario there? 303 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: It's a real danger for Republicans. If Trump decides to 304 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: run as a third party candidate, there might be some 305 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: legal obstacles for him. There are these things called sore 306 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: loser laws, and a lot of states that if he's 307 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: decides to run in the Republican field doesn't win the nomination, 308 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: he might be barred or have a tough time getting 309 00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: on the ballot as an independent candidate in Some states 310 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: have those and some don't. Right, That's right, So some 311 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: states have them, some states don't. So I'm just throwing 312 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: out a hypothetical number here. But let's say he gets 313 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: on the ballot in twenty states. That still poses the 314 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: problem for Republicans. If those states happen to be states 315 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: and are swing states, are gonna really count toward the 316 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: electoral College vote. But even putting all that legal mishmash aside, 317 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: just having Donald Trump on the sideline storing care neades 318 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: at the Republican nominee is gonna be a tough thing 319 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: for him. A lot of voters might just decide I'm 320 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: not for this guy, you know, rodes Santist Nicky Haley. 321 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: Whoever it is, Donald Trump's on the ballot, I'm staying 322 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: home and that's a big problem for Republicans. Okay, so 323 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: we've talked all about the future of Donald Trump run 324 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: to santists, Nicky Haley and others for the Republican side. 325 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: What about Joe Biden Jordan's you cover the Biden White House. 326 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: You had said that you think that he is absolutely 327 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: going to be the nominee, and yet there are a 328 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: lot of Democrats who worry that he is not as 329 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: fleet of foot as he needs to be in order 330 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: to go up against Rond de Sandus or even Donald Trump. 331 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: That's right, West, I think two things can be true. 332 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,199 Speaker 1: Josh said something earlier that I have found also in 333 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: my reporting, I have not talked to a single person 334 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 1: in the White House or in Biden's orbit that thinks 335 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 1: he's not going to run. They're all on board with 336 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: him running, and so that's gonna happen, and it's gonna 337 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: happen soon. That being said, that doesn't mean that he's 338 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: gonna have the easiest time getting the voters really energized 339 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: again about voting for him, even though he's not running 340 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 1: in a competitive primary. There are a lot of doubts, 341 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: as you talked about West about you know, his age, 342 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,400 Speaker 1: also people aren't seeing really his accomplishments. They don't think 343 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 1: that he's really done a lot for them, even though 344 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 1: he did rack up a lot of legislative accomplishments in 345 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: his first two years in office. So the main task 346 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: for Joe Biden, which is gonna be difficult for an 347 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: eight year old man, is going to be getting people 348 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: excited to vote for him again. And also that's going 349 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: to be even more difficult if he's not facing Donald Trump. 350 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: And so that's gonna be the thing that I think 351 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: his political team is going to have their eyes on 352 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: going forward to the next few months. Flavia Jordan's Josh, 353 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: please don't go anywhere. We'll keep talking after the break. Look, 354 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: I'm a great respect or fate. I would be completely 355 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: thoroughly honest with the American people if I thought there 356 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: was any health problem, anything that would keep me from 357 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: being able to do the job. And uh, and so 358 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: well we'll see. Uh. But you know, I just I 359 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: think people have to just watch me, Flavia. One thing 360 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: that happened in as a result of the pandemic was 361 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: that Biden wasn't out and about as much. Some people 362 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 1: said that was liability. Now looking back, maybe it actually 363 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: turned out to be an advantage because Biden sometimes is 364 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: a bit stumbly when he's speaking. There seemed to be 365 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: some concerns that handling the grueling travel and speech schedule 366 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: of a presidential race could be a problem. I mean, 367 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: and it is. And one sort of feels also kind 368 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 1: of bad talking about it because you know, on the 369 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 1: surface of it, he's just been a very successful president. 370 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: He's accomplished quite a bit. So why are we all 371 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 1: sort of talking about his age because it is this 372 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 1: enormous elephant in the room that you just can't get 373 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: away from. Yeah. Our producer Moe Barrow here in Washington 374 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 1: asked voters if they think Biden's age is a big 375 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: deal or not. Here's what they had to say. I 376 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: voted for Biden when he was running for president. I 377 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: probably will vote for him again. Yes, So I know 378 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 1: folks make a big deal about his age, But I 379 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: think with age comes wisdom, um, and the policies I 380 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: think are splitting us in the right direction. So I'd 381 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: like to see him continue uh this effort for the 382 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: next four years. If Biden was to win uh in, 383 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: I think we'll be in the same predicaments we are 384 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: in today. So I'm not a Republican, so I don't 385 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: want anyone on that side to win. But it's quite 386 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: in the best choice. I don't really know. I'm perfectly 387 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: fine with it. I think he's doing a great job 388 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: so far. I'll say that. You know, Democrats are renowned 389 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 1: for their handwringing. If Democrats weren't anxious about his age, 390 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: they'd find something else to worry about. But especially in 391 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:13,959 Speaker 1: a general election, you know, as many people are voting 392 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,959 Speaker 1: against the nominee that they don't like, as opposed to 393 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: for the nominee that represents their party. And we saw 394 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: that in the poll numbers, a majority of Democrats were 395 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: casting a vote against Donald Trump, not for Joe Biden. 396 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, you know, Democrats 397 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: could nominate Ham Sandwich and he'd still get you fifty 398 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: maybe of the vote if the guy that the Ham 399 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: Sandwich was running against with named Donald Trump. And I 400 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: don't think that that's gonna change regardless of who the 401 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: Democratic nominee is or what his flaws are, you know, 402 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: barring some really serious setback. I did want it build 403 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: off one thing flav said, this is on the age question. 404 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 1: Biden loves to say in response to the age question, 405 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 1: watch me, and what I've seen is when his staff 406 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: kind of keep him buttoned up reading off a teleprompter, 407 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,400 Speaker 1: he sounds and looks really stumbly. I think it's very 408 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 1: hard for him to speak off a teleprompter. I think 409 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: it's hard for anybody to speak off a teleprompter. He 410 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,919 Speaker 1: has a stutter as as well, established probably making it 411 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 1: even more difficult for him. But when he gets off 412 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: the cuff, he has more life and energy to him. 413 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: Look at what happened during the State of the Union 414 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: when Republicans started yelling at him about his accusations on 415 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: their plans on Medicare and Social Security. He got really 416 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 1: engaged and that was back and forth. I think he 417 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 1: ended up winning. The Republicans look very small, and so 418 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,360 Speaker 1: while there's this nervous energy about him getting back on 419 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: the trail and how much he's going to be able 420 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 1: to do, He's shown that he can thrive in that situation. 421 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: I think the question is, will you have the stamina 422 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: to keep it up for a full campaign all the 423 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: way until so? Do you think that it's a mistake 424 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: that his staff treats him with such care that they 425 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: really should loosen up and just let him. You know, 426 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: they'll let Joe b Joe, I do. I think that 427 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: was a big part of his appeal in twenty is 428 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: that you had running against Donald Trump a politician who 429 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,239 Speaker 1: also wasn't afraid to go off the cuff, but in 430 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: a way that was a little safer and a little 431 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: less you know, non PC aggressive crazy, and they in 432 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: the White House have really not allowed him the opportunity 433 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: to do that. As much that being said, it does 434 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: come with risks. They're afraid of him making a gaff 435 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: and we've seen him do that in Poland he said, uh, 436 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 1: this is of Vondery Muputin, should no longer be the 437 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: leader of Russia. That was something they had to clean up. 438 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 1: But do most American voters disagree with that. No. A 439 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 1: lot of times when he makes gaffs, he says things 440 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: that you know, you're average American would believe, but politicians 441 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: aren't allowed to say, and that I think it's an 442 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 1: asset for a politician in this era. That's a great point. 443 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: I think that we saw in with Trump and then 444 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 1: again in twenty that the bar for what reporters perceived 445 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 1: to be a race altering gaff is much much, much, 446 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: much higher um than we imagine in the past. If 447 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 1: you go back to the nineteen eighties nineteen nineties, George H. W. 448 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 1: Bush was looking at his watch during a debate. Was 449 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 1: a story that dominated the press for for days, for weeks, whatever, 450 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 1: because it looked like he was bored and just kind 451 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 1: of wanted it exactly and was you know, couldn't be 452 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: bothered to show up for this town hall debate and 453 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: pay attention. But then, you know, you fast forward to 454 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: sixteen and look at something like Trump and the Access 455 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: Hollywood tape. One would expect that that would be a 456 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 1: career ender for anybody, and yet you know, it lasted 457 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: to three four days with Trump and then it was 458 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 1: on to something else and he was managed to get 459 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: himself elected. I was just going to jump in actually 460 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: and just say that I don't think the age thing 461 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: around Joe Biden would be such a big deal if 462 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: people were more excited about who his VEEP was. You know, 463 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 1: the idea is like, Okay, should something terrible happen, you know, 464 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: we've got Kamala Harris, who everyone loves, and you know 465 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: we're in good hands. No one is excited about her 466 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: not voters, And I think it's worth sort of having 467 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: to think about why that is, because on the cards, 468 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: she is supremely well prepared, but she hasn't been able 469 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 1: to sort of some how energize voters in a way 470 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 1: that perhaps would would ease people's minds and to sort 471 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 1: of raises questions which you know, I'm often asked about. 472 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 1: It's like, what is the bench? You know, where is 473 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 1: the talent? Like if you look at Republican field, you've 474 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 1: got someone like around the standards, but there are a 475 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 1: bunch of them. Uh, And there's a perception that, you know, 476 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: has this party kind of does it not have that 477 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: young talent. So I'm just sort of curious whether that's 478 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 1: actually a fair assessment or whether, you know, people just 479 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: don't want to kind of step up and show themselves. 480 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 1: It's interesting. I think when a party is in power, 481 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: the bench necessarily with us because there's a limit on 482 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: how far people can go. We saw this during the 483 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: Obama administration. You know the bench. I remember in twenty 484 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 1: sixteen everyone was talking about how short Democratic bench was. 485 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: We also heard this going back to two thousand and eight. 486 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 1: After the Bush White House, they had to Dredge up 487 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 1: John McCain to run against Barack Obama. So I think 488 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: all parties in power have. The problem here is that 489 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: you have these lingering doubts about Joe Biden. And to 490 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 1: Flower's point about people would feel safer if there was 491 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 1: someone waiting in the wings, waiting to take over, someone 492 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: younger and of a new generation, people would feel a 493 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,199 Speaker 1: lot better about that. And so that problem is just 494 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 1: getting highlighted more now because of the circumstances that we're in. 495 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: And there's also a structural problem. I think when you're 496 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: the president and your party is in power, I mean, 497 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 1: there's no clean and easy way to swap out Kamala 498 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 1: Harris for any of the other Democrats. And if this 499 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: were a wide open primary, actually do think Democrats would 500 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: have a pretty decent bench. You'd have Pete Buddha judge. 501 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: You'd have potentially governors like Roy Cooper and North Carolina Westmore, 502 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 1: you know, my new governor and in Maryland, and all 503 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 1: sorts of younger names who have been waiting in the wings, 504 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: including people in Congress. Ro'canna I think wants to kind 505 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 1: of take on the mantle of Bernie Sanders and run 506 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: when he gets a chance. But of course none of 507 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 1: these people can do that if Joe Biden is going 508 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: to run again, in which everybody in the party thinks 509 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 1: that he is. So the problem that I hear from 510 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats who are worried about Kamala Harris's 511 00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: lack of strong appeal is that there's they're really trapped 512 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:02,639 Speaker 1: with it. There's nothing they can do to sort of 513 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,239 Speaker 1: swap her out, and so the best thing to do 514 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: is just kind of move on and try and focus 515 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: on it. You don't see any circumstance under which Biden 516 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 1: would go with a different vice president this time. None 517 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: the deed him alive. I mean, it would be how 518 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 1: would you do it? And doubly so, no Democrat would 519 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 1: ever try to make the argument that the Democrats need 520 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 1: a new voice and run against the sitting president. I 521 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 1: don't think you're going to have a reprise of ninety 522 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 1: where Ted Kennedy primary as sitting president and Jimmy Carter. 523 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: All of the top tier names like Gavin Newsom, the 524 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 1: governor of California, Illinois Governor GV. Pritzker, who people talk 525 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 1: about are as being ready to run now are saying 526 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: they're not doing that as long as Joe Biden's in 527 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: the race. So you're a little wishy wash end whether 528 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: the Republican nominee will be Trump, decentis or someone else. 529 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,159 Speaker 1: But you all seem to think that Biden is the 530 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: Democratic nominee. Is Joe Biden re elected president? In Fly 531 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,399 Speaker 1: to You? Yes? Um, I know that's a very short answer, 532 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: and I think it's just maybe just the sequel of You, 533 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: and it's not as thrilling a film. But I think 534 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 1: the same dynamics are going to be in play. I 535 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 1: still think it's going to be incredibly close, and I 536 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 1: think he will prevail. But I'm making a very important 537 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 1: assumption here. I'm sort of assuming that it's going to 538 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 1: try if Trump is his rival, that will happen. If 539 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 1: it is run the scientist, I think it gets far 540 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: more complicated, but I think he would still prevail. I 541 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: also say, yes, I agree with all the reasons Flavia said, 542 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 1: and also just historically in American politics, it's very hard 543 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 1: to unseat an incumbent president. For Donald Trump, it took 544 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 1: a pandemic and you know, race riots, and also himself 545 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 1: getting infected with the virus to kind of stamp out 546 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 1: his chance of the second term. A lot of people 547 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 1: believe that, you know, if you're running Trump in February, 548 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 1: in that election, he probably wins the second term too, 549 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: despite all the controversies and craziness of his first term. 550 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 1: So that's just something to think about as Joe Biden 551 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 1: launches his re election effort here with a lot of 552 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: doubts swirling around him. Yeah, I think if Trump is 553 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 1: a Republican nominee, then Biden gets reelected fairly easier. I's 554 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: anybody else, especially as a younger, more kind of generationally 555 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,679 Speaker 1: appealing ticket, maybe a De Santis and a hail Or, 556 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,479 Speaker 1: a Tim Scott and a Hailer or somebody like that, 557 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 1: then I think the job gets much much harder, because 558 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 1: we do have lots of poll numbers showing that people 559 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 1: are uncomfortable about Biden's age and they're not happy with 560 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 1: the direction of the economy. Historically, that's been the recipe 561 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 1: for a one term president. So I think if there 562 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 1: is a viable, non extreme alternative or repellan ticket that 563 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: it's perceived to be non trumping a little bit more normal, 564 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 1: that Biden really might end up being a one term president. 565 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 1: Josh Flavia Jordan's thanks for being here, great fun. Thank you, thanks, thanks, 566 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 1: thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. 567 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and I Heart Radio. 568 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 1: For more shows from my heart Radio, visit the I 569 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 1: Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and 570 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or 571 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising 572 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 1: producer of The Big Take and the producer of this 573 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 1: episode is Vicky Burgolina. Our senior producer is Katherine Fink. 574 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: Additional production support from Moe Barrow. Raphael m Seely is 575 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: our engineer. Original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm Westcasova. 576 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 1: We're taking Monday off for the US holiday, will be 577 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,280 Speaker 1: back on Tuesday with another Big Take. Have a great weekend.