WEBVTT - Anitza Nip on the Markets (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Let's bringing our guest and it's and it who's head

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<v Speaker 1>of fixed income research at UBP. So we've we had

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<v Speaker 1>an improvement from the June lows too, about four or

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<v Speaker 1>five days ago. In corporate credit in the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>we had spreads coming in. Seemed like a pretty good environment.

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<v Speaker 1>The one problem with corporate credit in Asia, I would

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<v Speaker 1>think lots of issues, but the strong dollar. How much

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<v Speaker 1>is the strong dollar leading to outflows in UH in

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<v Speaker 1>corporate credit in Asia? Well, basically we've been seeing outfloats

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<v Speaker 1>throughout the year on the emerging market side, including Asia,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's actually it's one of the factors been affecting

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<v Speaker 1>the credit spreads here in Asia. Corporate credit. UM, we've

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<v Speaker 1>been actually seeing moderate to float so far for the

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<v Speaker 1>lost UM a few weeks to about like a month,

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<v Speaker 1>and give a strong dollar, it's going to continue. We

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<v Speaker 1>reckoned that, um, the outfloats would may pick up again. However,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, substantially some of the outdoors has

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<v Speaker 1>been sort of you know, being taken away UM during

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<v Speaker 1>the year, So I would say, um, the movement at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment could be more moderated than before. And that

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<v Speaker 1>definitely you know, UM, you've substantially higher in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>dollar here, it could as an impact, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>it should be sort of moderated going forward. Where's the

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<v Speaker 1>best opportunity that you see right now in Asian corporate credit? Okay? Um,

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<v Speaker 1>given we are still in a writing rate environment, so

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<v Speaker 1>we need to be cautious and defensive in Asia credit.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we are trying to do will we will

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<v Speaker 1>look at high grade names and also focus on the quality.

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<v Speaker 1>The main reason that we go for high grades because

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<v Speaker 1>in writing rate environment, higher credits generally will be more

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<v Speaker 1>affected because some of the issues that would we could

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<v Speaker 1>balance it and they are with higher leverage, so their

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<v Speaker 1>credit spread wordwide don't now because people worry about their earnings. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, we'll keep our duration short because

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<v Speaker 1>now we've got an inverted your curve, isn't it like

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<v Speaker 1>the two years is actually higher than ten years and

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<v Speaker 1>people just don't got compensated by taking rids on the

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<v Speaker 1>ten year side. So we we stress the importance of

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<v Speaker 1>short duration. In the corporate credit side. We definitely prefer

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<v Speaker 1>quality names in the corporate perpetual bonds simply because the

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<v Speaker 1>credit differential between senior and corporate perpetual has wide enough,

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<v Speaker 1>which um, we look it looks attractive at the moment. However,

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<v Speaker 1>we will focus on short core dates and also with

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<v Speaker 1>high coupon reset. We're not particularly a big fan of

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<v Speaker 1>fixedful life at the moment, so we prefer the high

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<v Speaker 1>coupon reset in which the issue would have a better

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<v Speaker 1>chance of calling the paper if they need to during

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<v Speaker 1>the core days. So the other things we like. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>this is mostly for institutional investors. Retail investors sometimes a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit cut off from access to corporate credit like this.

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<v Speaker 1>Are there e t f s for instance throughout Asia

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<v Speaker 1>that give that access at the moment, they can also

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<v Speaker 1>look at some of the e t F But I

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<v Speaker 1>would say even for individual investor, they do will be

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<v Speaker 1>able to look at some of the corporate credits because

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<v Speaker 1>some of them are actually available in the market. But

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<v Speaker 1>of course, you know, people get minimum something like that. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>but of course they can also look at some of

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<v Speaker 1>the gt F funds definitely, Yeah, that's also available and

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<v Speaker 1>also provide them with some sort of diversification as well.

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<v Speaker 1>When we look at what happened yesterday with the cut

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<v Speaker 1>to the LPR from the banks, I mean that was

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<v Speaker 1>very much reflected in the equity market, but perhaps not

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<v Speaker 1>as much in the bond market. Tell us, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>your concerns here about the China property space. Okay, Basically,

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<v Speaker 1>I think at the moment people are still you know,

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<v Speaker 1>need time to restore their confidence in the property market

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<v Speaker 1>because what they are PHAs and would be have been

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<v Speaker 1>you know, various headlines. Some sort of defaultebrates has been

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<v Speaker 1>increasing as well, and people do worry about the restructuring

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<v Speaker 1>process for some of the defaulted issuer. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment, people still need to see some of

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<v Speaker 1>the measures that the come that come you know, come

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<v Speaker 1>up by the government, whether it would be effective like

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<v Speaker 1>for example, recently, as you mentioned, you know, cutaining of

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<v Speaker 1>all those raids and at the same time they try

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure that some of the presold project could

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<v Speaker 1>be delivered to home by Yes. So I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>all these measures are positive, but at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>people need to monitor closely. I think people need to watch,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, how the restructuring um would be for somewhat

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<v Speaker 1>default to issue us. So I think that would be

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<v Speaker 1>something that people would monitor closely. In looking at you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the big macro picture, we are in a phase coming

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<v Speaker 1>up of quantitative tightening after a long period of quantitative

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<v Speaker 1>easing UM setting aside China, of course, but for the

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<v Speaker 1>most part that that's the case. So well, QT, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if QUI pushed people into risky assets, will QT push

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<v Speaker 1>them into a lot safer assets? And what might that be?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, would it likely be quality stocks or or

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<v Speaker 1>investment grade credit? What? What do you think people would

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<v Speaker 1>be looking at? Cash? Yeah, okay, cash is an alternative,

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<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, people do need to invest

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<v Speaker 1>right because the inflation is also high. It's also coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>So what people should look at would be UM on

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<v Speaker 1>a defensive strategy, go for high grade you know, park

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<v Speaker 1>their money to the short end, and if the market

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<v Speaker 1>turn around then they can always liquidate you know, short

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<v Speaker 1>end uh bonds very easily, and you know, like go

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<v Speaker 1>into something risky. But at the moment, we emphasize on

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that be defensive, go for high grade short data.

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<v Speaker 1>You're saying this rising recession risk, we're looking ahead to

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<v Speaker 1>Jackson Hole. What are you expecting there in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>I guess more of a hawkish statement. Well, okay, at

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<v Speaker 1>this stage, I think you know anything that they talk

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<v Speaker 1>about any indications about inflation, writs of recession. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that would be you know, a very good indicator to

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<v Speaker 1>the investor. Um our house wheel. Basically it's reckoned that

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<v Speaker 1>the reception riceless rising you know in the d M market.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, inflation may not peat yet. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think all these will definitely you know, affect the

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<v Speaker 1>sentiment as well as risk appetite from the investor. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>big question just overall again, you know, we always have

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<v Speaker 1>this nervousness before a FED meeting or in this case

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<v Speaker 1>Jackson hole, does it clear next week after this is done? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>really depending on what you know, fact is going to deliver.

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<v Speaker 1>If they're delivering something that is expected, I guess the

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<v Speaker 1>market would be able to sort of stabilize a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>But if they delivered something that's you know, unexpected or

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<v Speaker 1>being too hockey ish, I think the market you know,

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<v Speaker 1>could um you know, have a different strategy going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's a great heavie with us. Thank you for

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<v Speaker 1>coming into our Hong Kong studio and it's as hip

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<v Speaker 1>as head of Fixed Income Research Asia at UVP with

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<v Speaker 1>us in Hong Kong,