WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 144rd Preakness Stakes Preview and Picks & 2019 Q1 MLB Derivative Stats + William Hill Denies Massive Payout 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:11.719 Uh check it down Man Now down Now Thursday, May 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:16.759 sixteen days book podcasts, Kill Alexander, How you doing Big 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:21.239 One Today? Three parts included. Right in the middle our 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:25.799 Preakness picks from Marco D'Angelo, Peter for Nital and Ron Flatter. 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:28.400 That is wedged in between the meat of this one 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:31.800 preceded by the interview that I had on my Visa 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.559 show with the Better who walked into a Reno william 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:39.480 Hills sports Book thought he won six hundred nine thousand 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:44.280 dollars after the Kentucky derby, only to win thirty five thousand. 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:47.919 That story precedes the Preakness picks, and the picks are 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:50.880 followed by the mlb Q one derivative show. All your 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:54.440 five inning and first inning stats included. It's the Beating 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:59.400 the book podcast. Enjoy. This is a number game with 0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:03.400 Jill Manandard broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and Information Network. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.800 Those studios who believe in the analytics, analytics, statistics and 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.320 more are used to win wagers and Gil has every 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:14.720 number you need to catch your tickets now live from 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:17.399 the Visa Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.800 It's Gil Alexander in the place to be. It's a 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.160 numbers game right here at Visa Vegas Stats that information 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:25.920 network series except Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:30.600 the Visa app, Footbo TV, Sling TV, and of course 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.960 Game Plus in Canada. In New York City. We appreciate 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.760 everybody tuning in today. It's Gil Alexander. Did I mention 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.000 that Jeff Parls is here as well? Good morning, Jeffrey 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:40.800 Um Marco is here. By the way, Marco was sticking 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:44.120 around because the next segment, Uh, Dr freelanders coming on 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:46.840 and we'll have you crack and I talking to him. 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:52.040 Dr Freelander is again. Uh, the gentleman who um was 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:55.200 denied a massive payout at a William hillboat before he 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:56.640 gets here, and we'll talk to him and then we'll 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.960 get we'll get opinions afterwards. But you know, let me 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.000 let me go with how I view this, and then 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:06.800 you tell me if I'm nuts. How I view it 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:10.239 is this way. So he went to a William Hill shop, 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:14.440 that is that does not delve into the paramutual odds 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:19.440 pool and so um the issue is, was it clearly 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.720 stated at that sports book, and that's really what the 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.119 debate may come down to, was it clearly stated that 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:30.840 they were using ultimately their own odds. Their odds were 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:35.520 kept um And so my thing is it's gonna come 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:37.119 down to that. And by the way, people who think, 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.639 oh gaming will never side with him, that's actually not true. 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:44.560 You never know with gaming. My thing is this, and 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:46.639 I think this, and I'll say this again next hour, 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:48.920 but I want to get your opinion on this. To me, 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:51.720 the real thing here that's not being spoken about enough 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.519 is maybe, and maybe it is in some circles. So 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:56.240 I don't want to say that no one is. But 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:00.919 if you have a ticket taker at that behind the counter, 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.600 the person who is taking that bet at this william 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:08.040 Hills shop in Reno, Nevada, if that person cared at 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:11.440 all about their job. And this is the reason this 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:13.080 is so near and dear to all of us, is 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:17.240 this is so reflective of apathetic people behind counters in 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:20.959 certain companies more than others. Here in Las Vegas, h 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:25.680 william Hill being one of them. Uh, the company that 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:29.200 those letters never can't give a damn uh c g. 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:32.040 They have guys, not everybody, but who don't seem to care. 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.040 Sometimes they're apathetic in the job. But if that if 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:36.760 that ticket. If that if that person behind the counter 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.920 had just said to this person, hey, listen the size 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.440 of your bet here, just to let you know our 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.960 odds are capped. Maybe you want to either reduce your 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:49.080 bed or you know, we have another shop across the 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.320 way there where it is actually in the paramutual pool. 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:54.520 Maybe you go make that bet over there so you 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:57.880 get your bang for your buck. Isn't that really where 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:01.400 this starts? It doesn't it, you know, not being there 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.840 and being able to see where they have the signage 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:07.680 and how visible it is. But it's gonna be buy 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:11.880 or beware. If it's fine print somewhere, it's still you know, 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:15.120 your responsibility, check your tickets and understand. But it should 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:19.880 say at least right in the board non paramutual waging 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:22.920 somewhere that needs to be displayed. That's the biggest question 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:26.240 because then you can ask the question. But again, most 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:29.279 people betting the Kentucky Derby that are just casual betters. 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:33.360 They don't know the difference between paramutual and non paramutual aging, right. 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:35.240 But so so that's the thing. So now we'll find 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.720 out what he contends. Where the where the fine print was, 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:39.600 if it was really visible or was it not from 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:43.760 his perspective? But that's again, and I just say this 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:47.520 in this in this day of legalization, Marco, like this 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:52.039 kind of you know, this kind of gray area where like, 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.680 oh was it properly displayed? Was it not? Let's face it, 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:57.400 most betters are uneducated, right. I don't know that Dr 0:04:57.400 --> 0:04:59.600 Freelander isn't is an educated will find out from him 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:03.200 momentary really, but like you can't do the same way. 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:05.640 And let let me say, beyond the ticket taker, right 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:09.000 beyond the person behind the counter, isn't there some approval 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.400 process like in sports, which is a different jurisdiction in 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.640 the William hillsphere, by the way, it should be pointed out, 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:18.359 but in sports, there's an approval process for every single bet. 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:20.920 Don't we know that? Right? Like every time you make 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.440 a bet of Eddy, Oh, they're they're watching it. Shouldn't 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:27.600 there have been one on another level for this as well? 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:31.440 They should have with you know from what I saw 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.200 with the article and he had forty dollar try effected ticket. 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:38.479 Those are huge bat um, which again that goes to 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.880 the ticket seller. I don't think you ever really have 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:45.680 that issue with horse racing because for the most part, 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:48.600 everyplace else is para mutual. Doesn't matter who wins, they 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:51.280 don't care. They've got their set fee. And I don't 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:54.680 know that anybody on I don't want to dismiss ticket writers, 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:58.719 but or at that pay grade they even understand. Yeah, 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.640 but the complication listen, I don't want to crowbar the 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:04.000 south Point into this just because we're here at the 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:07.160 south Point. But people know, like you know, Chrissie Andrews, 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:09.919 Vinny Malula, we love these guys. Let me let me prompt, 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:11.760 let me speak on their behalf just for a second. 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:15.640 If someone here works and is apathetic or doesn't care 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.320 or doesn't care to inform like the way, they will 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.080 not be here. I think I'm okay speaking on their 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:24.880 behalf on that, like, because because they do, this place 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:27.960 is done lovingly right, and you just can't in this 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:32.320 day and age, you can't have this. And so you're right. Look, 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.560 we're gonna find out and and I'm not taking one. 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:38.039 I'm not wholly on one side here, because we'll find 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:40.719 out what the circumstances are. But I just think it's 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:45.880 it's just an fascinating situation, and with legalization ever more, 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:50.200 a situation that should be highlighted Dr Friedlander next on 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:53.680 a numbers game at Vista Now live from vis Studios 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:57.080 in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:59.440 our number two of a numbers game right here at 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.080 Visa the Bay. That's an information networks serious XM Channel 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.960 two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App, Fobo TV, 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:09.920 Sling TV Game Plus throughout Canada and New York City 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.680 and very parts of New Jersey. We appreciate everybody listening 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:16.000 this morning. Uh, this should be very interesting. Joining me 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:17.640 here for the first segment. By the way, in studio 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.920 Marco D'Angelo as well, coming off his Breakness talk here 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.040 earlier and as always Thursday Second Hour, s O. Buddy 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.000 at at Bill Crackman with the K on Twitter, Sir 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:29.400 Fred Bill Crackenberg, Good morning, Billy, Good morning. How you 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.720 guys doing doing very well? Good? Nice? Just Uh, I 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:34.880 was just telling my buddy, my buddy, Brian. I came 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:38.240 over with I don't know how people do it every morning, 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:40.440 like it really is tough to do, wake up to 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:43.440 an alarm clock. I do it once a weekend. I'm pissed. Yeah, 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.440 you know, if you if you could interview me well, 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.360 first of all forgetting me. How about Mitch and Pauli 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:50.840 here for four in the morning. Yeah, but if you could, 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:52.680 if you could stick a mic in my face, like 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:55.520 that's the few seconds that you wake up, as many 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.640 people do with an alarm clock, it would be a 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:00.760 totally different response than it would be now. So so 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:02.880 those guys are going to bed that means like nine o'clock, 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:05.240 then I am right. This is my thing with Bish 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:06.520 and Pauli, And I say this to everybody I go. 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:08.880 I have so much respect for them because if you 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.960 told me today you're like, all right, Gil, tomorrow you're 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:14.280 gonna start doing four am, might be like, yeah, okay, 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:17.040 we're good. Like I would just I would just bug 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.360 out right there, because I don't know how they're able 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:25.520 at that hour to speak about sports with nuance, you know, 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:28.960 interest and insight. So it's an amazing thing. And when 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:31.920 I asked him what's your routine? Their response is fast 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.880 and there like it's never the same man. Wow, So 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:37.360 they can hang out and drinking at midnight sometimes I 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:42.280 don't know about that. Yeah, guys, Oh no, that's great 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:44.800 though that could be as well. Maybe that's the secret. 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:48.320 But yeah, no, Hey, look, we're talking sports. It's a 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.560 beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing. We're blessed. Uh and uh, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.640 yesterday you know, I was sitting around the old house 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:55.480 as like, you know, let let me let me see 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.880 if I can find this gentleman Dr. C. Friedlander, who 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.840 is the gambler to you, the guy who went into 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.800 a book there in Reno, Nevada, William Hill book. And uh, well, 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:08.320 let's just say he made a wager that, thanks to 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:13.720 maximum securities, disqualification resulted at least in the paramutual pool 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.880 what would have been six hundred nine thousand dollars worth 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:20.880 of winnings. However, uh, there was some fine prints somewhere, 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:22.520 and we'll get to the bottom of where that fine 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:25.000 print might have been. He ends up getting capped at 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.560 thirty five thousand dollars and so uh I tracked him down, 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:30.480 ladies and gentlemen kind enough to join us, and we'll 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:33.320 bring him in right now. Uh. Dr Friedlander, thank you 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:35.200 for coming. Are you in the middle? Are you in 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.600 between surgeries this morning? Is that what I understand? Hey, 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:41.920 good morning, go well, I'm on my way to do 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.000 some eye surgery up. Okay, I keep the job. You know, yeah, 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.679 I do. I know. Well obviously now you do that, 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.840 and I think that's the difference, right, six nine thousand 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:55.160 is life changing money. Thirty five thousand not so much. Um, 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:57.280 So let's start at the let's start at the beginning. 0:09:57.280 --> 0:10:02.760 First of all, how often do you bet horses specifically? Well, 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.520 I do. I do bet sports. Uh, I think fairly frequently, 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:09.960 but horses, you know, probably once a year, maybe on 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.599 the first Saturday in May, maybe on the you on 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.600 the first Saturday May. So tell me that. Okay, so 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.319 it was a guy who bets horses maybe once a year, 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:20.880 on the first Saturday, maybe the Derby. How did you 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:26.840 arrive at your handicap? Ah? Well, uh, so I have 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:30.559 a friend that that sends me um just their handicap, 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.120 you know, once a year, and it's very interesting and 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:36.280 they usually with dramatically. And uh this year they had 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:40.080 a country house as one of the potential um, you know, 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:43.560 exotic plays. So I saw that and it's stuck in 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:47.360 my mind. Um, my fiancee's name is House. And I thought, okay, 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.680 that horse. Uh put that horse on the ticket and 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.000 uh and I liked, like the eight horse tasks this 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:57.760 um and we put put two other horses on my ticket, 0:10:57.800 --> 0:11:00.160 and I did a four horse exact box and four 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:03.080 horse trifact to box with the same four horses. Yeah, 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:04.760 let's list them right here if we do have that 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:06.520 on the screen here at Visa dot com, the Visa 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.240 and a half, Fobo TV, S League TV, and of 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.920 course on Game Plus as well. So it was six 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.360 hundred dollars on the number eight horse tacitus, uh show 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.040 bet to win place or show hundred dollar exact box 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:20.720 on the Tacitus, the eight horse thirteen number thirteen, Code 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.600 of Honor, number sixteen, game Winner, number twenty country House, 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:28.280 then the one dollar trifecta box on those same four 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:31.760 horses Tacitus, Code of Honor, Game Winner, and country House. 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:38.000 So the forty dollars we transcribed it in properly there, 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:41.120 Sorry about that, So forty dollar try faed right? So, um, 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:44.280 the total outlay for you was how much? Then? Here 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:51.840 I think about okay, So, and did you say you 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.839 went into so take me how you decided which book 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:59.040 to go to? Sure? Sure? So you know. Um, I 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.840 live in the south part of Reno and my son 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:04.480 was running in a high school track meet down in 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:08.240 Carson City farther south, and so I was on my 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.439 way to the track meet, and um, that was the 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.440 closest book. It was. On the way was a William 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:15.800 Hill at a at the Tamarack Junction, which is a 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:21.200 small um slot machine oriented casino that has a has 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.880 the William Hill sports book there, and so I went 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:25.640 in there and I made the bets, and I, you know, 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:27.600 I was in a hurry to get to the track meet, 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.400 so I just went in, made the bets and left, 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:34.280 went to the track meet, came home, watched the race. 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.640 I thought I had lost, you know, all my tickets 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.680 given the initial outcome, and then when they threw the 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.959 inquiry sign up, UM, I had to sort of do 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:46.800 a double take. I didn't really know what the rules were, 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.840 if the horse I was gonna be disqualified one place 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.800 or or more. Uh, And then I realized that he 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:54.080 was going to be off the board. That I had 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.080 the number two and three horses on my exact ticket. 0:12:57.040 --> 0:13:01.079 So once they once they disqualify maximum security and who 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:02.880 had won the exact I didn't quite know how much 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.000 until they flashed the winnings on there and it said 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.199 the three thousand nine dollars for a two dollar ticket 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.280 and of course I had a hundred dollar ticket. Uh, 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.120 so that was pretty exciting. And then uh, I looked 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.160 a little bit to the right missile to trifect the numbers, 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:17.559 and that one I had to do a double take 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:21.679 on because, um, you know, you don't expect to hit that, 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.720 And um, sure enough the eight horse was now in 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.080 third place, and I hit the trifect as well, and 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.800 that paid something like eleven thousand, five hundred for a 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.320 dollar and I had forty dollars on it. So yeah, 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.000 it was. There was a couple of hours there where 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:38.320 you know, I was on cloud nine, on cloud nine, 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:40.920 So those couple of hours and then again we're talking 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:44.800 to Dr Steve Friedlander, who made uh the wagers that 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:47.920 we are just talking about at a William Hill book 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:50.440 there and reno all the circumstances that he's just laying out. 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:54.720 So two hours later you go back. Is that when 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.679 you went back and you're like, I think I want 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.760 a lot of money here. Yeah, so I went in. 0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:02.000 I and you know, one of the one of the 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:05.160 things I was struggling with on my drive down back 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:06.600 down to the book was how much do I tip 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:12.600 the book writer here? You know? The direction, Um, because 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:16.200 I don't know what the guidelines are for that. And um, 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:18.160 so I go in and I see the guy. I go, hey, 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.320 you're the one that sold me these tickets. He's like yeah. 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:22.680 I said, well they hit and he said really. I 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:24.600 said yeah, I think it's a lot of money. And 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:26.120 he said how much and I said I think it's 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:29.080 over six And he said, we don't have that kind 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:30.720 of money here and I said, well, I didn't think 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:32.640 he did. I wasn't expecting to walk out with cash 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:36.880 from this book. Um. But then he got the more 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.520 senior writer who looked at my tickets and said, oh, 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:40.920 we have you know, he said, we have caps on 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.040 these and he pointed to this eight by ten placard 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.000 that was on the exact opposite end of the counter 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.400 from where I made my bets that morning. And you know, 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:51.800 it says we're not a paramutual location. And then if 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:53.400 you turn it on the back, it has, you know, 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:55.720 a bunch of fine print that says they're they're exact. 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:59.240 The payouts are capped at at one and trifecta cap 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:03.720 cap was one. So that's where the came from. Yeah, 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.080 so the the odds are capped, not the payout, but 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.520 the odds are capped. So the previous segment, Dr freed Lander, 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.120 I was making the case and just sort of in 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.400 the run up to to talking with you where I 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.520 believe you know one, you've just said the placards on 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:19.240 the other end from where you made the bet. The 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.320 actual black and white fine print is on the back 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.800 of something. So I'm guessing part of your contention is 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:28.440 the fact that it was not uh that accessible to you, 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:32.600 was not obvious. I also contend, and I'm curious, Okay, 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:38.160 go ahead, I'm sorry, it's not it wasn't conspicuous. Wasn't conspicuous. 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.840 So I also contend that that gentleman that you that 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.920 took your bet, that there was an obligation. This is 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.520 just my my opinion. Tell me if you agree here 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:50.840 there was an obligation on his part, if he cares 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.680 about his job, right, if he's doing his job, that 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:58.600 he understands the bets that you're making and knowing right, 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.320 he ought to know what that record saying, He ought 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:02.920 to know what the fine print is on the back 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.000 of that sheet, and he ought to say to you 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:08.640 at that point, hey, just so you know, here are 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.360 where these odds were not in a paramutual pool, so 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.240 our odds are capped at at this and that, and 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:18.040 so therefore you should either bet less or hey, we 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.000 have these other William Hill properties where we are in 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.800 the paramutual pool. Maybe you should head on over there. 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:28.480 Does that stick in your crowd? All? Oh? Absolutely? Yeah? 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:30.680 And and you know some of the irony is is 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:32.480 that if my son's track would have been on the 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:34.480 north side of town like it like it was just 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:37.880 last Saturday, I would have gone into the Grand Sierra 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:39.680 and bet at the William Hill there, which is a 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:43.480 paramutual location. And then you know, probably wouldn't be on 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:45.640 your show right now, just just the vagaries of that. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.200 Just when your son's tracked me was so, what is so? 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:51.600 I guess Dr Freedlander. Then you know, the question becomes, 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:54.600 what are you going to do now? How are you 0:16:54.680 --> 0:17:00.760 pursuing this? Um? Well, so, you know, I think that 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:04.840 it's important given the you know how sports betting is 0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:07.360 sort of slowly taking over the nation. We had two 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:11.200 states legalized in the last week, and more and more 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:14.200 coming online, and there's gonna be more and more new 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:17.360 betters that are going to be walking into sports parlors 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.040 and they just need to know, you know, the rules 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:21.960 and the regulations need to be clear. I would hate 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:26.960 for something like this to happen to somebody else. So, UM, 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.680 I I'm happy. I'm glad, you know, allow me to 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:31.359 say that and sort of get that word out. I 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:34.679 think that's important as far as myself, I'm you know, 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.720 I'm pursuing to see whatever the Nevada Gaming Control Board 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:41.919 has to say about this, um, and they make a 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:44.280 determination within forty five days, and then you know, it's 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:48.159 a it's a process after that. But um, you know, 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:53.120 I think I think the chances of me collecting uh 0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:57.480 this total amount are greater than me hitting the trifecta 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:01.320 on the Preakness, but not much. Well, you know, you 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.200 know what, I'm not so sure. By the way, I'm 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.280 not so sure because because you know, a lot of 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:08.640 people sort of flippantly say, oh, gaming is never gonna 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:12.520 back you. Actually gaming backs the better more than people think. 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:14.560 And I, first of all, I think you're right. Your 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:16.280 chances of getting this are better than you're hitting the 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.199 trifect on the Preakness, that's for sure. But you know, 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.320 I'm not so sure this doesn't go your way. But 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:26.159 I really do appreciate your first point, which is why I, 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:29.280 more than just hearing your specific story, wanted to have 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.480 you on uh. This story, by the way, first reported 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:34.560 by the Action Network. Let me give credit to where 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:39.160 it is due here. Um, you you make the better point, 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.080 which is for me, all of these situations come down to. 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.760 For me, it is now post legalization that is the 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:49.879 biggest point to all of this and in this new uh, 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:55.320 in this new reality. You're absolutely right like these shenanigans, 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:58.520 I'll use that, that's my word, right, but these kinds 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:02.080 of gray areas have to go away, and that's really 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:06.919 at the core of all of this, isn't it. I 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.959 think we lost Dr Freeland. Either that or my words 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:15.760 were still pathetic. Yeah, yeah, go ahead, Yes, there, go ahead. Okay, 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:18.960 I'm sorry, they'll go please, I did I cut out 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:20.560 just for a second. Oh no, I'm what I'm saying 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.000 is beyond your specific point. I think you're your broader 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:24.760 point for me is why I wanted you on here, 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:27.840 which is it's this is post legalization. Right. This is 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:31.280 a year almost to the day of the Supreme Court 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:36.600 overturning or ruling PASPA unconstitutional. We can't have this anymore. 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:45.439 We just can't, right right, So book like William Hill. 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:48.919 William Hill wants to be America's sports book, you know, 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.480 and I and and people are gonna have choices where 0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:56.880 they place their bets. Yeah, well listen, I mean here's 0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:58.360 the other thing about this. I just want to throw 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:00.119 in something else to the mix. And Marco you you 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.560 can tell me as a longtime horse player, and I'll 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.879 throw this in as well. Dr Freedlander. And this is 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:07.240 kind of neither here nor there, but it's also part 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:08.439 of the mix. Is I don't want to leave any 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:15.000 detail out. William Hill UK rose to prominence based on 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:18.600 horse racing specifically, So that's another thing that I would 0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:20.399 throw in here, Like if you go to way William 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:25.359 Hill book, and if it's not necessarily uh conspicuously to 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:29.359 use the doctor's word, conspicuously shown the rules, you know, 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:31.359 because you go into that book thinking well, they're they're 0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:33.280 the horse racing company. Some people might come in there 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:35.639 thinking well, obviously this is gonna work out. It's William Hill, 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.199 for God's six. They they you know, they came to 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:40.480 prominence on this. That's another thing in to here where 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:42.679 I'm like, you've got to be able to trust the 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.440 people you're betting with. Yeah, for a day like the 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:50.040 Kentucky Derby, which and nothing against Mr Freelander, but these 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:52.480 are people, like he says, he bets once a year 0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:55.000 the Kentucky Derby, and I talked to you all every 0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.120 year when we do it. You asked me why I 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.159 think there's so much money in the Kentucky Derby is 0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:04.840 because there's so much recreational money put into what's the 0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:08.560 term you used to dead money? There you go, you know, 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:12.360 But for the for the sharp guys, we we want 0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:14.639 everybody doing that because we want to take the slice. 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:18.560 But for them not to say, you know, it's you know, 0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:20.720 I don't want to use the word amateur. But I 0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:22.600 always talked to you about going to del mar An 0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:26.119 opening day. It's an event. It's also a nightmare for 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:29.240 people that actually bet because half the races you get 0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:31.399 shut out. The lines are so long. People don't know 0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:35.000 what they're doing. They're doing all they should be telling 0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:39.800 people coming up you. You do understand we're non paramutual. 0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.480 Just it should be right at the windows. That's the 0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:44.919 that's the case. The only case that I feel that 0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:47.760 you can make is that they should have it, especially 0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:49.960 on a day like the Kentucky Derby. And I'll and 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:51.520 I'll say what I said in the previous seven case 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:53.720 people missed it, just contrasting it with the place like 0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:55.439 the South Point. Not to not to crow bar them 0:21:55.480 --> 0:21:59.320 into this, but those those ticket writers, they go away 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:01.440 after a while from here and it's just not tolerated 0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:04.520 right that this the job is done lovingly, So Dr Freedlander, 0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:06.320 because I know you've got to get to your surgery 0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:08.320 here and I do appreciate you coming on the show. 0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:10.479 By the way, I don't know how active you are 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:13.080 on Twitter, but your Twitter is your Twitter handle is 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:16.720 at the Reno doc People should know Dr Freedlander is 0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:19.040 an off themologist there in Reno. So you did you 0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.360 do this once a year? Um, I'm guessing you're not 0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:25.720 going to bet the Preakness. If you are, I'm sure 0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:28.840 everybody wants to hear what horses you're picking for goodness sake, 0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:32.119 right right, Yeah, we're gonna keep those goes close to 0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:35.720 the vest right now. Okay, Yeah, look at Dr I's like, no, 0:22:35.800 --> 0:22:38.639 I can't tell you that information, you can't give you that, 0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:42.600 you can't give you that you know on one other point, 0:22:42.600 --> 0:22:44.639 if if just have another minute, is Liz, uh, you 0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:46.280 know when you look at when you look at this 0:22:46.480 --> 0:22:50.280 five one cap on this trifect to pay out, if 0:22:50.320 --> 0:22:53.200 you look at the last twenty five years of Kentucky 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:57.480 Derby trifecta payouts, that cap has exceeded in nineteen of 0:22:57.560 --> 0:23:00.520 those twenty five years, and sometimes by quite a bit. 0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:02.320 I think in two thousand five it was a six 0:23:02.359 --> 0:23:06.320 figure payout, hundred twenty three dollars for a dollar. Imagine 0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:08.919 if you are a guy in Iowa, Indiana, and you 0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:11.960 go and you place a one dollar trifecta bed and 0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:14.159 then you think you've won a hundred and twenty thousand 0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:16.680 dollars and they pay you five hundred. Oh my good. 0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:19.320 That is criminal to me. Yeah, it's criminal, you know. 0:23:19.440 --> 0:23:21.399 And I don't know where these odds come from and 0:23:21.640 --> 0:23:24.040 how they are allowed to to set them there, stealing 0:23:24.119 --> 0:23:27.520 expected value out of the pool, just stealing. I'm gonna 0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:30.520 let that rest right there on those words. Dr Freedlander, 0:23:31.160 --> 0:23:33.560 Thank you. Uh. We're going to see how this goes 0:23:33.680 --> 0:23:35.760 for you, and I'd love to have you on either 0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:40.760 way when this finally gets decided for you. Thanks Jill. 0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:44.440 Dr Dr Steve Freedlander from Reno, Nevada, tracked him down. 0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:46.639 That's what I do the rest of the day. I 0:23:46.720 --> 0:23:48.720 just tracked down people. It's part of my job. I 0:23:48.720 --> 0:23:51.000 think I appreciate him coming on. He has by the way, 0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:52.959 he's kind enough because he's got surgery days like well, 0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:54.360 let me, let me try to squeeze. And so he's 0:23:54.359 --> 0:23:56.320 on his way. So somebody after that, I hope he's 0:23:56.359 --> 0:23:58.040 not too riled up, is going to have him working 0:23:58.080 --> 0:24:01.040 on their eyes. So we, uh we hope that goes well. 0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:03.520 I called him dead money. I am not getting my 0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:06.399 eyes done there exactly. You know what you actually you 0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:08.760 you uh, you held back on that. It's not what 0:24:08.800 --> 0:24:10.040 you used to call Do you remember what you used 0:24:10.040 --> 0:24:12.480 to call it. It wasn't dead money. It was another 0:24:12.560 --> 0:24:18.280 D word. It's called dumb money. Yeah, okay, same thing, 0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:21.760 all right. Um, so that's fascinating, Bill. I want to 0:24:21.800 --> 0:24:24.120 get your thoughts on this. Can we let's do a braake. 0:24:24.200 --> 0:24:26.520 Let's get your thoughts on, Bill Crackerburg. I'm sure with 0:24:26.640 --> 0:24:28.919 much to set here on a numbers game right here 0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:31.840 at VESA back to a numbers game with your host 0:24:31.960 --> 0:24:35.320 Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in 0:24:35.400 --> 0:24:38.720 Las Vegas. Back on numbers game right here at Veson 0:24:38.960 --> 0:24:41.920 has my Brooks Kept update going Jeff we' in a 0:24:41.920 --> 0:24:44.399 co tie or rather tied for the lead rather co 0:24:44.520 --> 0:24:48.480 leader Kept Fleetwood four under look list three under and 0:24:48.600 --> 0:24:50.200 Kept could just make this easy for all of us, 0:24:50.200 --> 0:24:53.720 Just just run it. Just roll only bet I made 0:24:53.720 --> 0:24:56.400 beforehand because he's Brooks Kepta. By the way, we will 0:24:56.440 --> 0:24:58.399 never see I got it close to eleven and one. 0:24:58.400 --> 0:25:00.000 I think there were twelve or thirteen ones out there 0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:02.800 at one point closed at six to one. Keptco wins 0:25:02.800 --> 0:25:05.760 this tournament. We're never seeing double digits on kept cover 0:25:05.880 --> 0:25:11.000 again ever again. People chiming in on Twitter at beating 0:25:11.000 --> 0:25:13.879 the book always appreciate it. I'll try to uh to 0:25:14.119 --> 0:25:17.800 cherry pick some here, Paul Zim. I don't disagree with 0:25:17.840 --> 0:25:21.239 you Gil about apathetic ticket writers and supervisors, but as 0:25:21.280 --> 0:25:23.640 someone who prides himself on the details with his customers, 0:25:23.680 --> 0:25:26.120 I appreciate that you did not lump all of us together. 0:25:26.240 --> 0:25:28.879 Nevada books in general need to increase the customer service 0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:32.480 at the book level. Could not agree more with that. 0:25:33.160 --> 0:25:36.440 Um exactly how many bogus calls of the sharks need 0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:38.239 to win the cup still like carry over from our 0:25:38.240 --> 0:25:42.520 shark stock earlier. Um, let's see here's one right here, Gil. 0:25:42.720 --> 0:25:44.679 This is from Billy mc vegas. Gill as big as 0:25:44.680 --> 0:25:46.600 Will Hill is. Wouldn't it just be easier to pay 0:25:46.600 --> 0:25:49.399 this man his money? Send this to you, Marco. The 0:25:49.400 --> 0:25:51.800 bad publicity alone seems like it would hurt them more 0:25:51.840 --> 0:25:54.760 than the payout. They're not going to pay that out 0:25:54.800 --> 0:25:58.159 in the big question is why does Will Hill not 0:25:58.960 --> 0:26:02.760 half paramutual if they're taking bets paramutul They do it 0:26:02.840 --> 0:26:05.360 at many of their books, right. There's no risk for them. 0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:08.360 It's all profit. It's set profit. Like people that don't 0:26:08.440 --> 0:26:11.119 understand racing when they see long shots win, they go, 0:26:11.160 --> 0:26:13.920 oh my god, the track got killed. No, it doesn't matter. 0:26:14.240 --> 0:26:17.399 They get a set percentage of the handle, and people 0:26:17.440 --> 0:26:21.040 that take Paramutual off track get a set percentage of 0:26:21.119 --> 0:26:24.159 their handle. It's a pure profit, no risk. This is 0:26:24.160 --> 0:26:26.280 a risk, and that's why they put caps on it 0:26:26.359 --> 0:26:30.240 because it's lottery tickets. This is bigger than those you know, 0:26:30.680 --> 0:26:33.359 ten team two dollar parlays that people you know hit 0:26:33.400 --> 0:26:35.560 and they post the tickets and how big it is. 0:26:35.600 --> 0:26:37.960 They know those guys over time are gonna bet in 0:26:38.000 --> 0:26:40.199 the horse racing world, They're not gonna make up a 0:26:40.320 --> 0:26:42.720 hit like that when somebody hits a lottery ticket. Billy, 0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:46.520 you've been patient. No marks right there too, because the 0:26:46.600 --> 0:26:49.399 money already the track doesn't lose, it's taken out of 0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:52.400 the pools. A matter of fact, some people know from 0:26:52.400 --> 0:26:54.480 my writing and gaming today, and there's just to me 0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:58.560 being on this show, Um, I'm against horse racing. I 0:26:58.720 --> 0:27:01.760 think it's a sucker bet their ticket of least exotic 0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:04.399 and dry effect this, you know, And and it's instant 0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:07.400 gratification people want. They love going every twelve minutes, every 0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:10.639 two minutes, every thirty minutes, we're out of track. So um, 0:27:11.119 --> 0:27:13.920 it's so hard to overcome up to ten times more 0:27:13.920 --> 0:27:18.240 than a sports betting. It's just I don't like. Really, 0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:20.440 I didn't even met the Derby, but now I will 0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:23.160 time to time butt the Derby or a big race 0:27:23.280 --> 0:27:26.800 or something. But maybe a name or a color of 0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:30.840 something or horse, you know, But generally speaking, I don't. 0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:32.600 I don't bet horse racing, and I think it's if 0:27:32.640 --> 0:27:35.400 you're not on the inside, you're on the outside. So 0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:38.280 there is a select few, a very small minority. Listen, 0:27:38.280 --> 0:27:40.399 we've all get horse race tips and um, you know, 0:27:40.440 --> 0:27:42.120 my whole life, I've been losing a horse race tips. 0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:46.159 Who hasn't done that? Yeah, I mean listen, every single trainer, 0:27:46.200 --> 0:27:48.840 every single owner, every single inside person thinks their horse 0:27:48.880 --> 0:27:51.119 has a shot without thinking of the other horses in 0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:53.040 the race that also were giving out tips to their 0:27:53.080 --> 0:27:54.840 family and friends also. So how do you think this 0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:57.439 goes for Dr Freed later? He's got no shot to 0:27:57.440 --> 0:27:59.959 get paid? No, no, I say zero. Yeah, you're you're 0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:02.760 you're fighting up up all battle. There was a plaquard. 0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:04.919 There's surprisingly I'm gonna not not that I'm sticking up 0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:06.840 for will Hill trust me because they deserve it for 0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:09.600 a lot of other reasons. But listen, there was a 0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:13.920 plaquard there. I know the off shore world they do CAP. 0:28:14.160 --> 0:28:16.520 Each track is CAP does an A, B, C, DE 0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:19.080 R E. Listening of a track A being like the 0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:21.800 big like Belmont and del Mars, and uh you know 0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:25.240 D or C or C or D being like Louisiana 0:28:25.280 --> 0:28:27.920 Downs or even a smaller little track loss Alomdos or 0:28:27.960 --> 0:28:30.800 something small. Um surprisedly, I know those games, right, I know, 0:28:30.960 --> 0:28:34.960 but very impressed, so so uh there is a cap 0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:36.679 on each one, and and you know that there's a 0:28:36.680 --> 0:28:39.520 cap for a reason, because, let's just face it, maybe 0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:41.840 these people are maybe people here are here this for 0:28:41.880 --> 0:28:44.920 the first time. It's really easy to manipulate these smaller 0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:48.200 race tracks. So Bill Krackerburger goes into the racetrack and 0:28:48.240 --> 0:28:51.160 I bet the two to one shot, you know, um opposite, 0:28:51.200 --> 0:28:54.520 I'm sorry, I bet all the long shots, uh to win, 0:28:55.080 --> 0:28:56.880 you know, for which is going to change the odds 0:28:57.440 --> 0:29:00.320 bucks for runde bucks or a horse. And now the 0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:02.640 two to one shot goes to tend the one because 0:29:02.640 --> 0:29:04.760 I just manipulated the field. But now I'm going to 0:29:04.840 --> 0:29:07.240 bet into us something that's nonpower mutual, that doesn't go 0:29:07.320 --> 0:29:09.320 into the pool. And now I'm actually betting a lot 0:29:09.320 --> 0:29:12.040 of money at that place, um or even off shore 0:29:12.080 --> 0:29:14.640 that takes things that that takes bets. So it's easily 0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.560 easily to be it's easy to be manipulated. So you said, 0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:19.680 no shot on this? How much what would add you 0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:22.600 give me on? Yes, there is a shot because I'm 0:29:22.600 --> 0:29:26.239 taking because you know, what my reaction initially was was 0:29:26.360 --> 0:29:29.959 no shot. That was my reaction initially. I don't know, 0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:31.800 would you remember that thing that happened. And I know 0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:33.640 this was a New Jersey and it's a different jurisdiction. 0:29:33.920 --> 0:29:35.960 What was the was there an in game on a 0:29:36.000 --> 0:29:38.360 Denver Broncos game? You remember that, Jeff, and we were 0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:40.080 all like, oh, there's no way this guy is getting 0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:43.160 it because us J ruled for him. Yeah, there a 0:29:43.200 --> 0:29:46.240 new jurisdiction though there it's a little bit different. No, Listen, 0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:48.640 no one's been more critical of Nevada Gaming than I have. 0:29:49.000 --> 0:29:51.520 I'm just saying, listen, if this let me just throw 0:29:51.600 --> 0:29:53.680 this show into the mix two, if if we're going 0:29:53.720 --> 0:29:57.040 to display the power of what this can do, I 0:29:57.080 --> 0:30:00.720 think there's a shot. I do. I think he has 0:30:01.240 --> 0:30:04.400 a somewhat Listen, I get it by the letter you're saying, 0:30:04.440 --> 0:30:06.680 there's a placard over there. There's a little fine print 0:30:06.760 --> 0:30:12.320 behind this thing. But you got like, Nevada, get with it. 0:30:12.960 --> 0:30:15.840 You can't let this happen. Now. Remember my my NFL 0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:19.040 Draft prop caper last year. That's when they were just 0:30:19.360 --> 0:30:22.480 that's on the sports side different. That was just pure thievery. 0:30:22.600 --> 0:30:25.239 And if you weren't kill Alexander, you would still have 0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:27.560 not you wouldn't have been paid your listeners wouldn't have 0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:30.080 been paid. And that's said, we have a company like 0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:33.680 that here in Nevada. That's uh and and actually nationwide 0:30:33.680 --> 0:30:37.160 now that they kind of think they're bigger, they're like 0:30:37.200 --> 0:30:39.520 above the law. They're they're they're on above the law. 0:30:39.640 --> 0:30:44.280 They think that anyway. So um, that's that's a sad thing. Um, Marco, 0:30:44.400 --> 0:30:46.400 you think no shot too, though I think there's there's 0:30:46.440 --> 0:30:48.920 no shot. And the other thing, it's the response. It's 0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:52.600 the responsibility of the person placing the bed. If you 0:30:52.640 --> 0:30:55.000 go to any track, okay, even if you go here South. 0:30:55.320 --> 0:30:56.880 If I go up to the window and I tell 0:30:56.960 --> 0:31:00.720 them I want one to three boxed and punches one 0:31:00.760 --> 0:31:03.680 to four and I walk away from the window without 0:31:03.840 --> 0:31:06.760 checking my tickets, there's nothing I can do about it. 0:31:06.960 --> 0:31:10.280 Every day all over town too. It's the responsibility. And 0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:12.640 no matter where they had it, if it was somewhere there, 0:31:12.920 --> 0:31:14.560 do I think they should have had it right at 0:31:14.560 --> 0:31:17.160 the window, taped right there when you're looking down at 0:31:17.200 --> 0:31:20.000 the very board point excellent point, that's where they should 0:31:20.040 --> 0:31:25.400 have it. Non paramutual, have a plaque. That's the point, right, Marco, Like, okay, 0:31:25.440 --> 0:31:28.000 it's posted. But according to Dr Friedlander and this is 0:31:28.000 --> 0:31:30.320 the case he'll make with gaming. Oh yeah, it's posted. 0:31:30.480 --> 0:31:33.960 It's posted where I would never look. But AT's the point. 0:31:34.200 --> 0:31:37.320 It's a shame he can't use the offshore world because 0:31:37.480 --> 0:31:40.440 the big sports books off shore, like Chris uh, they 0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:44.000 book horses obviously, and they book them in house, and 0:31:44.400 --> 0:31:47.400 they pay out track percentage of the track numbers up 0:31:47.440 --> 0:31:51.480 until a certain point. Also there however, for big races 0:31:51.520 --> 0:31:54.200 like that, like the Bellmont, like k Lucky Derby, as 0:31:54.240 --> 0:31:56.120 far as I know, they give you a track ods, 0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:58.840 so they're gonna pay it. They're not gonna so for 0:31:58.880 --> 0:32:00.440 a copy, and like will Hill to do this, it 0:32:00.680 --> 0:32:03.160 actually was probably better off of them paying than getting 0:32:03.160 --> 0:32:05.960 the bad press, because really you shouldn't be patronizing a 0:32:05.960 --> 0:32:09.000 casino or sports book that that does have this rule 0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:10.560 and effect. It's why I'm doing the show. I'mill make 0:32:10.600 --> 0:32:13.040 them pay. That's serious. I hope you do. Here's another 0:32:13.040 --> 0:32:15.440 one right here, Marco, you help me out or bill 0:32:15.480 --> 0:32:18.360 either one of you from that Pepsi guy on Twitter. 0:32:18.480 --> 0:32:20.800 I'm not a horse player. Uh so sorry if it's 0:32:20.800 --> 0:32:23.720 common knowledge, But with a non paramutual book, do those 0:32:23.720 --> 0:32:26.920 books post the win amount with those caps on it? 0:32:27.560 --> 0:32:31.920 Um no, probably not no, No, not at all. Um Again, 0:32:31.960 --> 0:32:42.960 it's the odds that are capped, not not a maximum payout. 0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:45.800 Back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, 0:32:46.000 --> 0:32:49.240 broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. 0:32:49.280 --> 0:32:50.760 Not only do we have the second leg of the 0:32:50.760 --> 0:32:53.320 Triple Crowd, of course, but we have golf second major 0:32:53.480 --> 0:32:56.080 of the year going on right now, early first round. 0:32:56.360 --> 0:33:00.600 Let's get back to Preakness before we get your more 0:33:00.720 --> 0:33:05.040 specific bets. Uh. The aforementioned Chris Felika, Uh, friend of 0:33:05.080 --> 0:33:08.400 the show The Glue that keeps ESPNS College Game Day together, 0:33:08.440 --> 0:33:11.440 also on Daily Wager, also half of the Stanford Steve 0:33:11.480 --> 0:33:13.880 in the Bear podcast. He has a question for everybody. 0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:17.440 In the last six years, ten of the eighteen horses 0:33:17.760 --> 0:33:20.120 to complete the trifecta were at least nine to one, 0:33:20.320 --> 0:33:22.959 and six were at least fifteen to one. Give us 0:33:23.000 --> 0:33:27.200 the double digit priced horse on the morning line most 0:33:27.440 --> 0:33:31.160 likely to hit the board. Well, I've already you've already 0:33:31.160 --> 0:33:33.400 given it, Yeah, Bourbon wore. The other long shot that 0:33:33.440 --> 0:33:35.560 I like is owen Dale. Owen Dale would be the 0:33:35.600 --> 0:33:41.720 other one, Peter, I'm gonna go with Warriors Charge for that. Honor. 0:33:41.880 --> 0:33:44.320 I think he's got a chance, a real chance to 0:33:44.400 --> 0:33:48.040 be the best of speed here, and sometimes in racing, 0:33:48.440 --> 0:33:51.200 that's that's, that's all it takes, not just to hit 0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:54.360 the board, but potentially to win the race. I'm very 0:33:54.440 --> 0:33:57.080 it was very, very impressed by this horse's last race. 0:33:57.120 --> 0:34:00.600 I was there that day at Oaklawn and it came 0:34:00.640 --> 0:34:04.120 back very nice on the clock. And I'm a big 0:34:04.120 --> 0:34:06.240 Warriors Charge fan. I can't wait to see what he's 0:34:06.280 --> 0:34:09.560 got in the tank on Saturday. Flatterman, same question. Yeah, 0:34:09.560 --> 0:34:11.720 I'm gonna go with owen Dale. I know he's been mentioned, 0:34:11.760 --> 0:34:15.040 but I think that the whole idea that uh, you know, 0:34:15.120 --> 0:34:17.759 if Warriors Charges not a rabbit in the field to 0:34:17.760 --> 0:34:19.680 be a rabbit, he could still run like a rabbit. 0:34:19.760 --> 0:34:22.600 And if he helps set the pace out front, uh 0:34:22.760 --> 0:34:25.400 with market King, and you start seeing twenty two and 0:34:25.480 --> 0:34:27.920 forty four fly up on the board, then somebody's going 0:34:27.960 --> 0:34:30.200 to come from behind and win it. Owen Dale did 0:34:30.200 --> 0:34:33.399 win the Lexington Stakes. Talking to Brad Cox a little 0:34:33.440 --> 0:34:37.480 while ago down here, he tells me that owen Dale really, 0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:40.279 uh you know, he's he's suffered some wide trips and 0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:43.520 one despite that at the Lexington Stakes thinks he's coming 0:34:43.560 --> 0:34:46.160 into his own. They regrouped with the horse during the 0:34:46.160 --> 0:34:47.879 middle of the campaign when they were trying to get 0:34:47.960 --> 0:34:50.680 him to the Kentucky Derby. They kind of started from scratch, 0:34:50.719 --> 0:34:53.400 and things look like they're going forward with him, and 0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:55.200 so I don't know that he'll be tend to one. 0:34:55.280 --> 0:34:58.760 I think there could be a little bit more steam 0:34:58.840 --> 0:35:02.000 on him and could a lower but at least right now, 0:35:02.160 --> 0:35:04.319 tend to one both on the morning line and at 0:35:04.320 --> 0:35:08.040 the West Gate. Uh would be my would be my 0:35:08.080 --> 0:35:10.520 long shot play. All right, Marco D'Angelo, tell me how 0:35:10.520 --> 0:35:13.000 you've been this thing. Well, I'm gonna key off three 0:35:13.000 --> 0:35:15.759 horses on the top. I'm gonna use Bourbon War, I'm 0:35:15.760 --> 0:35:18.600 gonna have Improbable in case, you know, we get the 0:35:18.719 --> 0:35:21.239 dry track, and that was the excuse, and then i'm 0:35:21.239 --> 0:35:23.799 gonna have Owendel. Those are the three horses I'm keying off, 0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:26.800 and then I'll put other horses, you know, and anybody 0:35:26.800 --> 0:35:29.640 can run in that third spot, so I'll have probably 0:35:29.640 --> 0:35:33.040 a little deeper run to the third spot. But that's 0:35:33.080 --> 0:35:34.520 where we're going, and I think it's gonna be an 0:35:34.560 --> 0:35:36.719 evenly bet race where you're gonna be able to get 0:35:36.800 --> 0:35:38.799 good payouts here. I would think so. By the way, 0:35:38.800 --> 0:35:41.120 I've never seen you and I have been together for 0:35:41.280 --> 0:35:43.640 many Derby's many I mean the least five or six 0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:47.320 at this point. Never seen you so subdued during a derby. 0:35:47.400 --> 0:35:49.880 Is this point never seen you said? Now. There have 0:35:50.000 --> 0:35:52.080 been ones where I you I literally look over at 0:35:52.080 --> 0:35:54.600 you and I'm like, someone, get Marco professional help immediately. 0:35:54.840 --> 0:35:57.080 But this one you were just and I guess you 0:35:57.120 --> 0:35:59.719 could see it in improbables run where you just felt 0:35:59.800 --> 0:36:02.200 like that horse was not going to break out of 0:36:02.239 --> 0:36:04.840 that of that pack. It was more that, as I 0:36:04.880 --> 0:36:07.760 said on all the shows, my disclaimer was, if Maximum 0:36:07.760 --> 0:36:10.399 Security is a real horse, which we're gonna find out 0:36:10.480 --> 0:36:12.800 on Saturday, it's going to leave a bruise on Marco 0:36:12.840 --> 0:36:15.160 because I wasn't a believer. I am now, but I 0:36:15.239 --> 0:36:16.960 wasn't then. I love when you refer to yourself in 0:36:17.000 --> 0:36:19.279 the third person. That's like my favorite thing ever. Peter, 0:36:19.640 --> 0:36:23.560 how you doing this one? I am going to try 0:36:23.600 --> 0:36:28.040 to take of you against the derby horses, potentially a 0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:31.480 move that that's dangerous, but I just think value for 0:36:31.600 --> 0:36:34.080 money wise, there's a world in which this is one 0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:37.560 of these exception Derby's where you're not going to see 0:36:37.560 --> 0:36:40.239 those horses necessarily come back and run. Well. I think 0:36:40.239 --> 0:36:42.319 there's a world in which you can take kind of 0:36:42.320 --> 0:36:44.439 a dim view of the form in the Derby, given 0:36:44.440 --> 0:36:47.200 how many horses were clustered around the wire at the end, 0:36:47.480 --> 0:36:49.839 and there's just a lot of exciting horses. We've talked 0:36:49.840 --> 0:36:53.080 about them again and again. I mean owen Dale Warriors 0:36:53.200 --> 0:36:56.960 charge Bourbon war I could see your exact coming from 0:36:57.000 --> 0:36:59.480 that group. And that's how I'm gonna play it. I'm 0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:02.440 gonna do. It'll be a it'll it'll be a nice score, 0:37:02.680 --> 0:37:05.680 or it'll be go home for me. And you know, 0:37:05.840 --> 0:37:08.280 I think if the risk reward makes that a smart 0:37:08.360 --> 0:37:12.080 strategy this year. All right, Ron from Baltimore, right there 0:37:12.200 --> 0:37:15.040 on the scene. What you got? Yeah. By the way, Marco, 0:37:15.120 --> 0:37:17.359 I know you were here when Survivor won the very 0:37:17.400 --> 0:37:21.319 first Freakness by ten lengths back in eight I know 0:37:21.440 --> 0:37:25.160 you were telling my grandfather, the late Jedediah Flatter, that 0:37:25.160 --> 0:37:28.640 that was the horst Bus. So I would really be 0:37:28.760 --> 0:37:31.040 remiss and ignoring what you're saying, but I'm going to 0:37:31.080 --> 0:37:32.759 go ahead and do so. And mentioned a horse that 0:37:32.800 --> 0:37:35.120 we haven't mentioned yet, but it's certainly getting a lot 0:37:35.160 --> 0:37:38.960 of talk here in Baltimore. And that is Always Mining, 0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:41.840 the number seven horse trained by Kelly Ruby, trying to 0:37:41.920 --> 0:37:44.239 become the first woman to train a Preakness winner in 0:37:44.320 --> 0:37:48.120 the four year history of the game of the race. 0:37:48.200 --> 0:37:51.120 That is eight to one morning line at at the Westgate. 0:37:51.520 --> 0:37:53.719 All Always Mining has done is when six races in 0:37:53.719 --> 0:37:56.880 a row, all here in Maryland, granted not amongst the company, 0:37:57.400 --> 0:38:00.360 that is as good as the Preakness? Or is it 0:38:00.640 --> 0:38:03.879 because we don't have the top three Derby horses here, 0:38:03.960 --> 0:38:06.719 No horse from the Derby that hit the board in 0:38:06.760 --> 0:38:09.080 this race. That's the first time we've said that's this 0:38:09.239 --> 0:38:12.919 nineteen fifty one. New shooters have only one four times 0:38:12.960 --> 0:38:16.520 since four in this race, but they hit the board 0:38:16.560 --> 0:38:19.480 most years if they don't necessarily win it. And by 0:38:19.480 --> 0:38:21.960 the way, two years ago, Cloud Computing was a new 0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:25.120 shooter that won the race. So I'm going to key 0:38:25.160 --> 0:38:27.799 off of War of Will. I think he's he may 0:38:27.800 --> 0:38:30.719 be the most athletic horse in the race. You're gonna 0:38:30.719 --> 0:38:32.400 be It's gonna be a short price, but I think 0:38:32.480 --> 0:38:34.840 he's going to be there. So I'll put him and 0:38:34.960 --> 0:38:38.399 Always Binding on top I'm not going to throw out 0:38:38.440 --> 0:38:40.960 Improbable completely, but I really wonder if he can get 0:38:41.040 --> 0:38:43.920 the distance. That's the big question on him. And then 0:38:43.960 --> 0:38:46.720 I'm going to throw in, as I mentioned before, Owen Dale, 0:38:46.960 --> 0:38:49.440 and I'm gonna throw in Bourbon War and uh, we'll 0:38:49.440 --> 0:38:51.920 see what happens from there on the exotics. Alright, Ron, 0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:53.880 appreciate you coming on this morning. I know you just 0:38:54.080 --> 0:38:56.399 flew into Baltimore, so thank you for changing your shirt. Man, 0:38:56.480 --> 0:38:58.880 Thank you. Yeah, and I'm glad you were able to 0:38:58.880 --> 0:39:01.080 see it with the fine technolog even we were able 0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:04.399 to deploy here fifteen pounds of extra equipment and my bag. 0:39:04.440 --> 0:39:06.239 But I think I'm gonna throw off the rooftop here 0:39:06.239 --> 0:39:08.920 at the old hill Top. Everybody, everybody who had Flatter 0:39:09.000 --> 0:39:12.480 at minus five thousand to make a technology gripe. Everyone 0:39:12.560 --> 0:39:15.320 cash is thank you. Oh by the way, Ron Flatter 0:39:15.400 --> 0:39:19.080 Racing Pod with an emal Ulo, Dave Tooley, h We 0:39:19.200 --> 0:39:21.920 got Patrick McGuigan and Johnny Avello. It is up and 0:39:22.000 --> 0:39:25.920 running right now. Serious hand handicappers can listen to opinions 0:39:26.080 --> 0:39:29.440 pluses minuses on all thirteen horses Visa dot Com, slash 0:39:29.480 --> 0:39:33.480 podcast plus iTunes, Apple, Google, Stitcher, and Gills toaster. There 0:39:33.520 --> 0:39:36.800 it is Rod Flatter everybody Thron Flatter Racing Pod available. 0:39:36.920 --> 0:39:39.319 All podcasts are distributed. Thank you Ron, Thank you. Peter 0:39:39.400 --> 0:39:44.239 Ford tal appreciate it. Peter as always always back for 0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:53.759 the Belmont Okay, love it. Josh Cowers is here though, 0:39:53.800 --> 0:39:56.480 he's here to talk baseball with us. Yesterday you texted 0:39:56.520 --> 0:39:58.280 me out of the blue because you're angry about baseball. 0:39:58.320 --> 0:40:01.719 What's the story? Have you watched it? I have. It's 0:40:01.920 --> 0:40:04.200 just a terrible product of what used to be a 0:40:04.280 --> 0:40:06.279 good game. Is your anger carrying over to this morning? 0:40:06.280 --> 0:40:08.759 Is that why you're in a helmet this morning? No, 0:40:09.440 --> 0:40:12.439 not at all. Not. I mean, you know, coffee didn't 0:40:12.480 --> 0:40:16.000 kick in maybe today. Um, you just hate the quality play. 0:40:16.040 --> 0:40:17.880 What's interesting about it is that game is kicking a 0:40:18.000 --> 0:40:20.640 huge step back. Word for sure. I talk about how 0:40:20.880 --> 0:40:24.239 handicapping is more difficult baseball now than it was three 0:40:24.280 --> 0:40:26.920 or four years ago because the delution of pitching, and 0:40:27.080 --> 0:40:31.200 you countered by saying the hitting's worse. The talents of 0:40:31.280 --> 0:40:34.440 the players is definitely better, but it doesn't matter when 0:40:34.480 --> 0:40:36.880 they don't know how to use their talent. And like, 0:40:37.040 --> 0:40:41.279 let's use Canny for example, what the Angels. He's he 0:40:41.360 --> 0:40:43.960 got called up after a hundred minor league innings, right, 0:40:44.200 --> 0:40:46.200 So talent, why sure, he has the stuff. They all 0:40:46.239 --> 0:40:47.680 have the stuff to play in the big leagues, otherwise 0:40:47.680 --> 0:40:50.120 they wouldn't have been drafted. They all have the physical abilities. 0:40:50.800 --> 0:40:52.560 What could a kid have learned in a hundred twenty 0:40:52.640 --> 0:40:54.640 nine innings that's going to prepare him for the major leagues. 0:40:54.680 --> 0:40:56.400 The major leagues is not a level where you go 0:40:56.520 --> 0:40:59.600 up there and learn how to cut and relay and 0:40:59.719 --> 0:41:01.600 learn the positions you need to be in the major 0:41:01.680 --> 0:41:05.240 league level is the advanced level of your the elite 0:41:05.280 --> 0:41:08.960 of the elite, and now they're trying to in essence, 0:41:09.040 --> 0:41:11.200 teach the game of baseball at the major league level. Well, 0:41:11.640 --> 0:41:13.680 once you're there, you feel like you know everything. So 0:41:13.800 --> 0:41:17.960 when I say something pedestrian to you about a position 0:41:18.000 --> 0:41:19.200 to be in, you don't want to hear it. You're 0:41:19.200 --> 0:41:20.640 not gonna hear it. All I know, I know, I know, 0:41:20.800 --> 0:41:23.239 But you continue to get in the wrong position. So 0:41:23.920 --> 0:41:25.440 if you know, why do you continue to do the 0:41:25.719 --> 0:41:27.200 things wrong? Right? So, if you bring a guy like 0:41:27.320 --> 0:41:29.400 Handing up, let's say, and you put him in the 0:41:29.400 --> 0:41:31.439 big leagues, he's going to fail for a few years 0:41:32.160 --> 0:41:34.200 because there's a lot of things that he's never learned 0:41:35.719 --> 0:41:38.920 that he's asked to do. Now. So when I got 0:41:39.000 --> 0:41:41.320 to the major leagues, the years I spent abilagues, I 0:41:41.440 --> 0:41:43.239 learned more about the game of baseball than I thought 0:41:43.600 --> 0:41:45.279 that I ever did my whole life. Like there was 0:41:45.320 --> 0:41:48.960 things that I I just wasn't shocked at, Like, oh 0:41:49.040 --> 0:41:50.880 my god, I didn't even know this was a possibility. 0:41:50.880 --> 0:41:52.920 I didn't know that it was a completely different game. 0:41:52.920 --> 0:41:55.040 You're not playing the same game you've ever learned. You 0:41:55.200 --> 0:41:57.200 have to get in and you have to get experiences. 0:41:57.239 --> 0:41:58.719 You have to learn to fail. You have to do 0:41:58.840 --> 0:42:01.719 all kinds of different things before you're fully prepared. Now, 0:42:01.719 --> 0:42:03.439 I know we all get brought up at different times. 0:42:04.080 --> 0:42:06.120 They're rushing kids to the big leagues at such an 0:42:06.160 --> 0:42:09.040 early age these days, they're not learning the game of baseball. 0:42:09.080 --> 0:42:12.880 So we're watching the most. Like I said, pedestrian mistakes happen, 0:42:12.960 --> 0:42:17.040 things that like why did you do that? You you 0:42:17.080 --> 0:42:19.560 would know better, but they don't know better because if 0:42:19.640 --> 0:42:22.160 you go back to where they're coming from a youth baseball, 0:42:22.400 --> 0:42:25.840 the game is not being taught anymore. Right, So we're 0:42:25.880 --> 0:42:29.359 doing things to elevate the talent level, but we're doing 0:42:29.480 --> 0:42:31.520 things to not teach the guys how to play the game. 0:42:32.600 --> 0:42:34.520 So they're rushing guys to the big leagues and they're 0:42:34.560 --> 0:42:36.600 making mistakes that should never happen. I mean, I remember 0:42:36.640 --> 0:42:38.040 sitting in the big leagues when I got called up 0:42:38.360 --> 0:42:40.160 watching a game on TV. I can remember this, like, 0:42:40.200 --> 0:42:42.640 I'm there and there's a play on TV and Cal 0:42:42.719 --> 0:42:44.440 Ripken it came and stood next to me, and I 0:42:44.480 --> 0:42:45.840 thought Cal was gonna yell at me for being in 0:42:45.840 --> 0:42:48.160 side and out on the bench, and he goes, did 0:42:48.239 --> 0:42:49.560 you see that play? And I was like, yeah, I 0:42:49.560 --> 0:42:51.719 saw it. And he's like, did you see what the 0:42:51.760 --> 0:42:55.719 shortstop did? And I was like, I might have missed 0:42:55.760 --> 0:42:57.759 that one. And the shortstop didn't throw the guy out 0:42:57.800 --> 0:42:59.279 at home on the relay as the ball hit the 0:42:59.320 --> 0:43:02.880 left center field and Cal said, he goes, when the 0:43:02.920 --> 0:43:05.520 shortstop was going out for that cut, he should have 0:43:05.600 --> 0:43:08.040 looked back to see where he needed to line up. 0:43:08.960 --> 0:43:10.919 So as he's running, he's got to run and look 0:43:11.000 --> 0:43:12.800 to know exactly where he wants to be because he 0:43:12.920 --> 0:43:14.719 has to be he has to line himself up. What 0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:16.400 the outfielder is gonna do is his job is to 0:43:16.400 --> 0:43:17.919 get the ball as fast as possible and turn around 0:43:17.920 --> 0:43:19.799 and get it in as fast as possible. You got 0:43:19.880 --> 0:43:21.640 the proofield. So when I turned to throw the ball in, 0:43:21.719 --> 0:43:24.600 I'm gonna pick somebody up as I'm in motion, and 0:43:24.719 --> 0:43:26.680 that's where the ball is gonna end up going. If 0:43:26.760 --> 0:43:29.600 my shortstop or whoever is cutting is offline, that's where 0:43:29.600 --> 0:43:31.720 the outfitder is gonna bring the ball in the quickest 0:43:31.760 --> 0:43:35.040 way uh point eight points a straight line. Right. So 0:43:35.120 --> 0:43:37.000 if I don't get in position as a relay guy, 0:43:37.000 --> 0:43:40.040 if I'm in bad position, the outfielder turns, he might 0:43:40.480 --> 0:43:43.080 divert the throw to an angle that's no longer a 0:43:43.160 --> 0:43:44.719 straight line, so it takes a lot longer for the 0:43:44.760 --> 0:43:46.880 ball to get home. So if the shortstop in that 0:43:46.960 --> 0:43:51.400 position and that circumstance doesn't put himself in the right position, 0:43:52.040 --> 0:43:55.160 then he's failed the team. Right, So the outfiter comes up, 0:43:55.200 --> 0:43:57.520 gets the ball and sees the guy. I gotta get 0:43:57.560 --> 0:43:59.359 there early and put my hands up. I gotta give 0:43:59.400 --> 0:44:01.480 this guy to get to get to I also have 0:44:01.640 --> 0:44:03.880 to know my arm strength and his arm strength. Who 0:44:03.960 --> 0:44:06.040 deserves to have the longer throw? Do I have a 0:44:06.080 --> 0:44:08.280 stronger arm to my outfielders. My outfield have a stronger 0:44:08.360 --> 0:44:11.239 line or on than you, So I have to know 0:44:11.360 --> 0:44:13.960 where to position myself based off of that and based 0:44:14.000 --> 0:44:16.160 off of the throw that I gotta make home. Now 0:44:16.239 --> 0:44:19.479 we see middlelandfielders second basements a lot one hop short 0:44:19.520 --> 0:44:21.839 hop the catcher because they put themselves in a wrong 0:44:21.920 --> 0:44:24.799 position as far as distance to make the throw home. 0:44:25.400 --> 0:44:26.960 So they got to know that they have to back 0:44:27.040 --> 0:44:29.640 up an extra fift so when they throw it it's 0:44:29.680 --> 0:44:32.160 a nice one hop and not a short hop. Or 0:44:32.239 --> 0:44:35.480 they gotta go back further long enough to throw the 0:44:35.520 --> 0:44:37.799 ball in the air to catch it. So all these 0:44:37.840 --> 0:44:40.360 things have to factor in. Are you gonna know that 0:44:40.520 --> 0:44:43.440 instantaneously on a play like that? This is all premititate 0:44:43.560 --> 0:44:47.479 stuff that you have to spring training practice. Earlier work 0:44:47.600 --> 0:44:49.480 talked about. This is all stuff that you have to do. 0:44:50.080 --> 0:44:52.680 Why because you're a professional baseball player, you're at the 0:44:52.680 --> 0:44:55.600 advanced level, you're making millions of dollars to be lead. 0:44:56.239 --> 0:44:58.759 Anybody can go out there gil you meet, anybody can 0:44:58.800 --> 0:45:00.680 go out there and put ourselves in a wrong position 0:45:00.719 --> 0:45:02.960 and just go to the motions. They're not allowed to 0:45:03.040 --> 0:45:05.200 do that because of who and what they are. Just 0:45:05.440 --> 0:45:07.839 just tell me who the who the biggest, biggest clubs, 0:45:07.840 --> 0:45:10.000 Who are the offenders of this more than others are? 0:45:10.560 --> 0:45:12.520 Or is it just league wide and you can't it 0:45:12.760 --> 0:45:15.560 really is league wide? It really, I mean you can 0:45:15.600 --> 0:45:18.160 look at a lot of different stats and see why 0:45:18.320 --> 0:45:21.040 teams are in last place, But when you when when 0:45:21.800 --> 0:45:24.400 when guys are getting themselves in the wrong positions and 0:45:24.560 --> 0:45:28.640 guys are safe in all Like the naked eye just 0:45:28.800 --> 0:45:31.480 sees a double and a guy safe. I don't see 0:45:31.520 --> 0:45:33.040 the same game that you guys see. I see. I 0:45:33.120 --> 0:45:35.239 think I see what should have been prevented. I'm sure 0:45:35.320 --> 0:45:37.839 pictures in defense we prevent things from happening, and if 0:45:37.880 --> 0:45:40.520 we do our job. The game looks boring to people, 0:45:40.920 --> 0:45:42.640 and it's on an elite level to us, So I 0:45:42.760 --> 0:45:45.600 understand why the game can be boring to your average person. 0:45:45.719 --> 0:45:47.600 All right, Well, can I speak in my parlance? Now? 0:45:47.640 --> 0:45:49.560 Can I speak in a betting currency? Because I want 0:45:49.560 --> 0:45:51.520 to make I want to make money off this. One 0:45:51.560 --> 0:45:53.880 of the things that I do every quarter Q one, 0:45:54.000 --> 0:45:56.680 Q two, Q three during the baseball season, roughly when 0:45:56.960 --> 0:46:00.120 teams turn the forty game bend if you will, do 0:46:00.280 --> 0:46:04.040 a derivative show and it's through the prism of betting stats, 0:46:04.080 --> 0:46:06.480 and we start with the sort of the macro numbers, 0:46:07.080 --> 0:46:09.200 which are really easily accessible, and then we sort of 0:46:09.320 --> 0:46:12.000 narrow it down to five inning wagers, first inning wages, 0:46:12.000 --> 0:46:14.920 and we get more granular, and we'll do that tomorrow. 0:46:14.920 --> 0:46:16.640 But let's start with the bigger stuff now, Josh, and 0:46:16.640 --> 0:46:18.960 I'm curious your reactions to some of these, because these 0:46:19.000 --> 0:46:21.640 are the uh these are the biggest money winners. These 0:46:21.640 --> 0:46:23.400 are for betters. Now, this is an exercise. Let me 0:46:23.440 --> 0:46:27.239 just stayed upfront that we we wonder how much of 0:46:27.320 --> 0:46:30.239 this is narrative, how much of this is predictive, and 0:46:30.320 --> 0:46:32.680 these are the top money line teams in baseball just 0:46:32.719 --> 0:46:35.200 in terms of UH the units you would have won. 0:46:35.400 --> 0:46:38.239 This is a bizarro exercise that if you had bet 0:46:38.560 --> 0:46:40.920 to win a unit or risking unit, if they're a 0:46:40.960 --> 0:46:42.759 dog to win a unit, if they're a favorite on 0:46:42.880 --> 0:46:45.600 each of these teams in every single game blindly this season, 0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:48.600 you would be up the most. With the Minnesota Twins. 0:46:48.680 --> 0:46:51.680 You'd be up eleven point four three units. This courtesy 0:46:51.719 --> 0:46:55.279 of cover dot Com. UH Arizona Diamondbacks you'd be would 0:46:55.320 --> 0:46:58.160 be next. But it's a significant drop from one to two. 0:46:58.960 --> 0:47:01.480 The Twins are by far the biggest money winner for 0:47:01.640 --> 0:47:05.400 blind bedders again Bizarro exercise and baseball, Diamondbacks and Dodgers 0:47:05.920 --> 0:47:09.279 uh to three Cups and Brewers rounding out the top five. 0:47:09.320 --> 0:47:11.919 But the Twins definitely the team that stands out there. 0:47:12.239 --> 0:47:15.399 And it should be noted it's pretty even in terms 0:47:15.440 --> 0:47:17.920 of home and road for the Twins, and that shouldn't 0:47:17.920 --> 0:47:21.439 surprise anyone because the Twins are you know, are getting 0:47:21.520 --> 0:47:25.600 favorable prices and have definitely surprised a lot of people. Uh. 0:47:25.680 --> 0:47:28.920 Certainly in the betting market as well. You're into the Twins. 0:47:29.080 --> 0:47:31.640 You believe they're viable to win that division. I picked 0:47:31.640 --> 0:47:34.279 the the win division before starting alright bottom five by 0:47:34.320 --> 0:47:36.680 the way, same category again, bluntly betting these teams. The 0:47:36.840 --> 0:47:38.680 Nationals are the team that will hammered you the most 0:47:38.719 --> 0:47:41.520 money thus far this season Q one. You'd be down 0:47:41.640 --> 0:47:43.759 nearly fourteen units if you bet. If you bet the 0:47:43.840 --> 0:47:47.799 Nationals blindly this year. Marlin's right behind them at nearly 0:47:47.880 --> 0:47:51.960 thirteen always on that list, Red Sox obviously with the 0:47:52.000 --> 0:47:55.280 poor starter still on that list, third to worst Royals 0:47:55.320 --> 0:47:56.920 and A's rounding out the top five. Now, if you 0:47:57.200 --> 0:47:59.520 spritles out in home and road splits. And we have 0:47:59.600 --> 0:48:02.719 done this for folks here this is at home now 0:48:03.280 --> 0:48:07.160 the Rangers are actually thus far. Again predictive or just 0:48:07.239 --> 0:48:10.040 a narrative, or we're just talking Rangers. Best team at 0:48:10.120 --> 0:48:13.760 home for betters blind betters exercise the Astros and Dodgers, 0:48:13.880 --> 0:48:16.520 rounding out the top three. See the Brewers and Cubs 0:48:16.560 --> 0:48:19.000 also there. But the worst five at home for betters 0:48:19.239 --> 0:48:22.239 the Nationals. Most of their loss has been at home. 0:48:22.360 --> 0:48:24.880 Makes sense they tend to be bigger favorites there. The 0:48:25.080 --> 0:48:29.120 Jay's offensively challenged second worst in their home field, the 0:48:29.200 --> 0:48:32.719 Orioles at Camden third worst, The Marlins and the Yankees 0:48:33.320 --> 0:48:36.160 again a lot of big prices on the Yankees in 0:48:36.360 --> 0:48:39.439 the Bronx when we go away is again blind money 0:48:39.520 --> 0:48:41.640 line betters. When the team is on the road, the 0:48:41.760 --> 0:48:45.840 Diamondbacks are the biggest winners. The Twins get most of 0:48:45.960 --> 0:48:49.320 their winnings in road games. They were number one overall. 0:48:49.360 --> 0:48:54.080 Remember money line betters, Pirates, Orioles and Padres Orioles because 0:48:54.160 --> 0:48:56.880 they've had such big dog prices. When they do win, 0:48:57.000 --> 0:48:58.800 they cash in a way that puts them on this 0:48:58.920 --> 0:49:02.560 top five list. Bottom five, well, No surprises there, although 0:49:02.600 --> 0:49:06.160 the Astros might surprise people, but again those are prices 0:49:06.320 --> 0:49:08.440 that make them show up on this list when to 0:49:08.480 --> 0:49:10.239 do this, although there are money numbers are a little 0:49:10.239 --> 0:49:12.480 different there on the right, little error, but A's are 0:49:12.480 --> 0:49:15.600 the worst Rangers, Astros, Marlin's Royals in terms of road 0:49:15.800 --> 0:49:18.520 money line. Let's just do the run line real quick 0:49:18.560 --> 0:49:20.560 here and then we'll we'll bounce out in terms of 0:49:20.680 --> 0:49:22.360 run line, which I'd like to call a de facto 0:49:22.920 --> 0:49:25.719 power rating in terms of betting. Um, now, I'll just 0:49:25.800 --> 0:49:28.160 do it manually, Jeff Jefferson, he doesn't have the graphic. 0:49:28.239 --> 0:49:30.480 He's panicking back there in terms of the run line. 0:49:30.480 --> 0:49:32.879 So we're talking about a one and a half run 0:49:33.000 --> 0:49:35.479 spread here, Josh. So if you win, you win big. 0:49:36.040 --> 0:49:38.799 If you lose, sometimes you cash because you lose one 0:49:38.960 --> 0:49:42.520 run games. The number one team in baseball on the 0:49:42.640 --> 0:49:44.920 run line. Any guesses what they would be for betters 0:49:45.000 --> 0:49:48.239 blind run line betters this year if that were an exercise. 0:49:49.200 --> 0:49:51.319 Winning by winning by one of them. In other ways, 0:49:51.320 --> 0:49:53.239 you're a one and a half point favorite one and 0:49:53.239 --> 0:49:56.359 a half game. Excuse want a half run favorite as 0:49:56.440 --> 0:49:59.920 a favorite, you're one and a half run dog. At 0:50:00.040 --> 0:50:02.320 they dog, I would say that Tampa Bay Rays. You 0:50:02.440 --> 0:50:06.279 are correct, Sir Josh Towers everybody, Tampa Bay Rays, you'd 0:50:06.320 --> 0:50:08.680 be up ten point to five units betting on the 0:50:08.800 --> 0:50:11.680 run line again, sort of a de facto power rating 0:50:11.719 --> 0:50:14.719 on that predictive With the Rays, maybe you can make 0:50:14.760 --> 0:50:18.439 the case that the way they manipulate their bullpen maybe 0:50:18.800 --> 0:50:21.520 and their starters, maybe that there is some predictive value 0:50:21.560 --> 0:50:23.399 to that. By the way, Number two on the run 0:50:23.480 --> 0:50:26.239 line in terms of just blind bettors would be the St. 0:50:26.320 --> 0:50:30.279 Louis Cardinals up nine point to five units roughly, again 0:50:30.360 --> 0:50:33.560 courtesy of covers, and the Arizona Diamondbacks would be third, 0:50:33.680 --> 0:50:36.239 up seven units. That doesn't surprise you either, just to 0:50:36.360 --> 0:50:38.640 the start they got off of them, It's just fascinating 0:50:38.680 --> 0:50:41.200 how and then they they prolonged it. I mean they 0:50:41.239 --> 0:50:44.400 were hitting, they were pitching for a while. Uh, it 0:50:44.480 --> 0:50:45.839 kind of makes sense. I mean, just by the way 0:50:45.840 --> 0:50:47.960 they're playing, by the way, Angels third, I lied, and 0:50:48.040 --> 0:50:51.640 the Diamondbacks would be fourth and the worst. Conversely on 0:50:51.760 --> 0:50:55.000 the run line, the absolute worst would be the Miami Marlins. 0:50:55.040 --> 0:50:58.080 They'd be hemorrhaging units. You'd be down sixteen point seven 0:50:58.160 --> 0:51:00.640 five units. If you blind lee bet the Marlins on 0:51:00.640 --> 0:51:03.839 the run line. The Nationals would be third. Actually there's 0:51:03.840 --> 0:51:06.160 a team in between that would be the San Francisco 0:51:06.239 --> 0:51:10.759 Giants down fifteen units for blind bedders. On run lines. 0:51:10.840 --> 0:51:21.239 We'll come back back to a numbers game with your host, 0:51:21.360 --> 0:51:25.440 Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Van studios in Las Vegas. 0:51:25.640 --> 0:51:27.000 I am savvy Z. By the way, we get a 0:51:27.040 --> 0:51:30.040 lot of tweets at beating the book on my Twitter skill, Alexander. 0:51:30.120 --> 0:51:32.360 Josh Towers kind enough to join us this morning on 0:51:32.400 --> 0:51:35.600 the show. Jeff Parls is here as well. Uh, and 0:51:35.640 --> 0:51:38.080 then all fair before we get into our derivatives, Josh, 0:51:38.200 --> 0:51:40.440 you you were making a point. I actually brought this 0:51:40.520 --> 0:51:43.160 up with you last week because Felix had another bad outing, 0:51:43.200 --> 0:51:44.680 and I said to you, is Felix herd as a 0:51:44.719 --> 0:51:46.600 Hall of Famers King? Felix hall of Famer? And we 0:51:46.680 --> 0:51:48.400 got into it, and the point that I was obviously 0:51:48.480 --> 0:51:51.320 making was here's a guy that most people would immediately 0:51:51.400 --> 0:51:54.000 knee jerk reaction, go, oh, sure, hall of fame. But 0:51:54.040 --> 0:51:56.160 then if you actually look at his statue, like huh 0:51:57.280 --> 0:52:00.200 uh okay, And as I said with Felix, if gets 0:52:00.239 --> 0:52:01.879 the three thousand strike as that he'd have to milk 0:52:01.880 --> 0:52:03.279 a few more years out of it to get there. 0:52:03.360 --> 0:52:06.520 That it's not a subject there at his age. I 0:52:06.800 --> 0:52:09.000 told you at his age, there's things that I feel 0:52:09.080 --> 0:52:11.759 he can do in the offseason to reset himself and 0:52:11.960 --> 0:52:15.239 actually be dominant again. And we talked about do. But yeah, 0:52:15.320 --> 0:52:17.600 his numbers are closed. He's twenty plus hunter strikeout, so 0:52:17.640 --> 0:52:20.479 he's really close at three thousand. He's still a decent age. 0:52:20.719 --> 0:52:22.320 But yeah, I was doing it with with some hitters 0:52:22.360 --> 0:52:23.959 while you were talking. I was going over some stuff. 0:52:23.960 --> 0:52:26.080 I was looking at some some hitters from the past 0:52:26.080 --> 0:52:29.160 because I wanted to see, like I cut, my attention 0:52:29.239 --> 0:52:31.160 was how many hitters are hitting three D above right now? 0:52:31.239 --> 0:52:32.880 So I went back twenty years and stuff, and I 0:52:32.920 --> 0:52:34.759 wanted to see how many players. So then I got 0:52:34.800 --> 0:52:36.920 caught up in looking at the Delgado and some other players, 0:52:37.320 --> 0:52:39.239 and I started comparing them to Hall of famers and 0:52:39.320 --> 0:52:42.520 Vladi's the name came up, Sor and I looked at 0:52:42.600 --> 0:52:44.640 his stats, and then I started comparing him to Hilton 0:52:44.760 --> 0:52:48.239 until Delgado and some other people, and Helton is a 0:52:48.280 --> 0:52:52.600 cores guy though, Yeah, and they're they're not better than 0:52:52.680 --> 0:52:54.120 most than a lot of guys that are not in 0:52:54.200 --> 0:52:56.279 the Hall of Fame or people. So really what I 0:52:56.360 --> 0:53:00.759 was doing is I wanted it just the No, don't 0:53:00.800 --> 0:53:02.279 get the numbers. Just what do you think about, lady 0:53:02.320 --> 0:53:04.040 grow Oh, he's a Hall of Famer? Is the Hall 0:53:04.040 --> 0:53:06.120 of Famer because he's in there because you think he is? Oh? No, no, no, 0:53:06.239 --> 0:53:07.760 he's a Hall of Famer. That would be an initial 0:53:07.800 --> 0:53:10.239 response for somebody. And then I'll throw another name out there, 0:53:10.640 --> 0:53:13.560 Degato calls Dogado and then be like uh and then 0:53:13.560 --> 0:53:15.359 I'm like, well, his numbers are ross the board are better? 0:53:15.760 --> 0:53:18.360 Oh I didn't know that. Well, it's it's like, it's crazy. 0:53:18.440 --> 0:53:20.799 The perception that we put in our head is perception, right, 0:53:20.840 --> 0:53:23.719 and so so much of that is media driven and 0:53:23.840 --> 0:53:26.600 we don't realize that that it is at the time. Listen, 0:53:26.640 --> 0:53:28.920 I'm I'm a Washington Redskins fan, a group in Washington. 0:53:29.000 --> 0:53:32.000 D c Art Monk, when he retired from the NFL, 0:53:32.120 --> 0:53:34.520 had the most catches in the history of the National 0:53:34.520 --> 0:53:37.439 Football League, and for any keen observer of three Super 0:53:37.480 --> 0:53:40.120 Bowl championships with the Redskins, he was the key. He 0:53:40.200 --> 0:53:42.279 was the one steady of that offense all the way through, 0:53:42.640 --> 0:53:44.680 took him nine years to get in the whole night 0:53:45.320 --> 0:53:47.000 when he finally got in there in two thousand eight, 0:53:47.600 --> 0:53:50.440 and I went for We gave him a four minute plus, 0:53:50.800 --> 0:53:54.040 which is an eternity, by the way, standing ovation right, 0:53:54.239 --> 0:53:56.200 And it was the way for fans to say, what 0:53:56.400 --> 0:53:58.439 the what the hell is wrong with that. It's another 0:53:58.480 --> 0:54:00.800 reason why I said you can never compare generational stats, 0:54:00.840 --> 0:54:02.960 that you cannot do it. So my my point is, 0:54:03.000 --> 0:54:04.200 you know, I was watching so I had a bet 0:54:04.239 --> 0:54:06.800 on the Mariners last night, Mariners Oakland. And it's actually 0:54:06.840 --> 0:54:08.640 it's funny you bring us up because it actually came up. 0:54:08.680 --> 0:54:10.839 At one point the broadcasters are talking about. I don't 0:54:10.840 --> 0:54:13.200 know how they got on the subject, but so let's 0:54:13.239 --> 0:54:16.000 do this exercise. Ozzie Smith, Hall of sure Fire, Hall 0:54:16.040 --> 0:54:17.479 of He's in the Hall of Fame, but sure fine, 0:54:17.560 --> 0:54:22.000 right in your opinion. I mean, I like watching a play. 0:54:22.120 --> 0:54:23.359 The only thing that comes to mind when I think 0:54:23.360 --> 0:54:25.399 Ozzie is his range in his back flipping. I would 0:54:25.440 --> 0:54:26.680 have to look at stats to be able to tell 0:54:26.680 --> 0:54:29.800 you his range and his bad flim and his back flip. 0:54:30.040 --> 0:54:31.960 So immediately though, but that's the reaction as soon as 0:54:31.960 --> 0:54:34.279 I say Ozzie Smith. Most people's gut reactions. Oh, sure, 0:54:34.320 --> 0:54:37.319 of course, basically because Ozzie Smith. He had, by the way, 0:54:37.360 --> 0:54:40.359 he had one great dramatic playoff home run at home right, 0:54:40.880 --> 0:54:43.759 um uh, and so on and so forth. And now 0:54:44.080 --> 0:54:46.640 let me just throw this outther Omar vis Scale. See 0:54:46.719 --> 0:54:48.759 I do. When I think of Omar, I think of 0:54:48.800 --> 0:54:51.320 the best club probably. Ever, how is Omar Viscale not 0:54:51.520 --> 0:54:53.760 in the Hall of Fame? But Ozzie Smith is correct? 0:54:54.040 --> 0:54:58.759 The answer to that question Meia, That's what I'm saying. 0:54:59.000 --> 0:55:00.560 These guys come out and they put somebody up on 0:55:00.600 --> 0:55:02.319 the TV and they say that this guy's a whole famer, 0:55:02.360 --> 0:55:04.680 and we all bite and immediately just go, yes he is. 0:55:05.000 --> 0:55:07.080 But you're right. I I have never compared those two stats, 0:55:07.120 --> 0:55:08.640 but I bet if I did, to be blown away 0:55:09.120 --> 0:55:11.919 the outmaker. He's unbelievable. He's one of the best. Ever. Yes, 0:55:12.440 --> 0:55:14.920 I just have a question on that, because I'm on 0:55:15.120 --> 0:55:18.319 record of saying Viscal and Ozzie Smith should not neither 0:55:18.400 --> 0:55:20.680 of them should be in just because of the hitting 0:55:20.760 --> 0:55:23.080 aspect of it. Yeah, but that's what I'm talking about, 0:55:23.920 --> 0:55:25.279 you know, That's what I was talking about about. Bryce 0:55:25.360 --> 0:55:29.719 Harper that guy defensively, like if he wasn't in the 0:55:29.800 --> 0:55:32.520 lineup when you're pitching, you're going in your manager's office 0:55:32.719 --> 0:55:34.319 and you're cussing him out from giving him a day 0:55:34.320 --> 0:55:35.960 off because I don't care if he goes I could catcher. 0:55:36.080 --> 0:55:37.359 I don't care if he goes over for four how 0:55:37.480 --> 0:55:39.880 valuable he is beyond the plate. That's what you need 0:55:39.920 --> 0:55:41.239 out there, and that's what you would want. This girl 0:55:41.320 --> 0:55:44.200 was the best. Now you've now you've upset Josh. Well, 0:55:44.320 --> 0:55:46.640 I did that yesterday with my pick, which Josh Josh 0:55:46.760 --> 0:55:50.120 ended up being correct on anyway, but Josh laughage. So yeah, 0:55:50.840 --> 0:55:53.800 I had as I had Seattle last night, so just 0:55:54.040 --> 0:55:56.680 about this baseball game, because I just wanted to had 0:55:56.760 --> 0:55:59.120 Mackworth state here about baseball. Five years ago you asked me, 0:55:59.520 --> 0:56:01.279 and I had this conversation with Mark Fortune on here. 0:56:01.320 --> 0:56:02.879 Five years ago you asked me, what's your favorite sport 0:56:02.920 --> 0:56:04.480 to bet on pre flop? And five years ago I 0:56:04.520 --> 0:56:07.920 would have said baseball and everything else is beyond that. 0:56:08.320 --> 0:56:11.759 It's baseball and nothing. Baseball is now one of my 0:56:11.880 --> 0:56:14.000 least favorite sports to bet pre flop, if at all, 0:56:14.120 --> 0:56:17.280 because there's so many more moving parts right starting pitchers 0:56:17.320 --> 0:56:20.080 get taken out early. Some teams, for goodness sake, start 0:56:20.360 --> 0:56:23.200 at a closer right as an opener, and so there's 0:56:23.719 --> 0:56:26.360 it's harder to model. Anyway, last night was a reminder. 0:56:26.440 --> 0:56:29.080 Now I had the Mariners last night, and even in victory, 0:56:29.480 --> 0:56:32.000 My biggest takeaway from this game last night was even 0:56:32.040 --> 0:56:34.560 a victory, right, I wanted to hug people who had 0:56:34.600 --> 0:56:38.320 the a's, and I felt like the high of winning 0:56:38.400 --> 0:56:41.200 that wasn't nearly as low as the losing must have been. 0:56:41.440 --> 0:56:43.120 And in the end, I'm like, what was I really 0:56:43.239 --> 0:56:45.439 betting on there? In the end, the Mariners were down. 0:56:45.719 --> 0:56:47.000 For First of all, let me just say this as 0:56:47.000 --> 0:56:49.840 a microcosumo baseball as it is now. There were seventeen 0:56:49.920 --> 0:56:52.680 total hits in this game and eleven runs. There were 0:56:53.440 --> 0:56:56.520 most of those on homeworks. There were seven home runs 0:56:57.160 --> 0:57:00.040 made in this game, seven home runs eleven total on 0:57:00.200 --> 0:57:03.040 seventeen total hit seven were home runs. And there were 0:57:03.120 --> 0:57:05.000 how many strikeouts in this game? A grand total of 0:57:05.160 --> 0:57:09.719 nineteen strikeouts. So there was nineteen strikeouts and seventeen hits 0:57:09.800 --> 0:57:11.439 in this game. So again, it's it's what we talked 0:57:11.440 --> 0:57:13.680 about with baseball. It's either out of the park or 0:57:13.760 --> 0:57:17.720 it's missing bats and there are no hits anymore. But anyway, 0:57:17.760 --> 0:57:19.560 the Mariners were down four to one. I don't know 0:57:19.560 --> 0:57:21.360 if you saw this, Josh, there were down four to 0:57:21.480 --> 0:57:25.920 one in the eighth and uh, Trevino, Lee Trevino, not 0:57:26.920 --> 0:57:30.400 famous golfer Lee Trevino, but Trevino was on the mound 0:57:30.480 --> 0:57:35.480 for the athletics and relief and and when our incarnacion 0:57:35.600 --> 0:57:37.880 worked it to a three to count with one man 0:57:38.000 --> 0:57:39.680 on and one out. So this was a moment in 0:57:39.720 --> 0:57:41.080 the game where it was like, all right, don't let 0:57:41.160 --> 0:57:44.760 the tying run to the plate. Uh, this was a 0:57:44.840 --> 0:57:49.240 huge pitch and Trevino throws a really solid pitch. And 0:57:49.320 --> 0:57:52.479 this again, I tell betters this all the time. Don't 0:57:52.520 --> 0:57:55.480 have confirmation bias. When you win, don't think it's you. 0:57:55.640 --> 0:57:58.360 And when you lose, um, don't think there was an 0:57:58.400 --> 0:58:00.919 excuse for it. And in victor to rebe honest about 0:58:00.960 --> 0:58:02.880 your victories. And so for me, the victory that I 0:58:03.080 --> 0:58:06.360 ended up getting all hinged on this one pitch ultimately, 0:58:06.680 --> 0:58:11.240 because Trevino threw a great strike in the lower part 0:58:11.280 --> 0:58:14.680 of the zone. K zone had it, announcers had it, 0:58:14.840 --> 0:58:17.520 everybody had it, and the umpire just looked. This was 0:58:18.280 --> 0:58:21.800 DJ Rayburn just looked at it and goes, yeah, that's 0:58:21.840 --> 0:58:25.439 a ball, and Edwin and Edwin internation goes to first 0:58:25.440 --> 0:58:27.280 base and when you know what, of course, vogel box 0:58:27.440 --> 0:58:31.320 Jack's you know, a ball into the center field just 0:58:31.760 --> 0:58:34.280 just deposits it over the center field wall to tie 0:58:34.360 --> 0:58:36.120 the game at four. By the way, the A's went 0:58:36.200 --> 0:58:41.840 up five to four in the tenth and the Mariners again, 0:58:42.000 --> 0:58:44.400 here was the thing with uh was the closer last 0:58:44.480 --> 0:58:48.480 night for the for the athletics, it was uh Joaquim Sarria. 0:58:48.920 --> 0:58:51.040 He was his pitch count was soaring, it was getting 0:58:51.040 --> 0:58:53.200 in the high thirties, and he just didn't have an 0:58:53.240 --> 0:58:55.320 out pitch, so he would get ahead O two and 0:58:55.360 --> 0:58:57.040 then you have no way of getting these guys out. 0:58:57.360 --> 0:59:00.600 And finally an amazing sequence there the bottom of the 0:59:00.680 --> 0:59:05.720 tenth again with with two out, the Mariners were down one, 0:59:05.840 --> 0:59:09.600 but it was a walk to Vogel back again to 0:59:09.720 --> 0:59:12.760 out nobody on d Gordon comes in as the pinch hitter, 0:59:12.840 --> 0:59:15.360 he steals a pinch runner, he's steal second. Then you 0:59:15.480 --> 0:59:18.480 have Santana doubling on it. You know, after having two 0:59:18.520 --> 0:59:20.600 strikes against him after an O two he worked the count, 0:59:20.840 --> 0:59:23.760 doubles down the left field line, game tied, and then 0:59:23.880 --> 0:59:27.600 narvaiased singles after an O two count to win the game. 0:59:27.640 --> 0:59:28.880 But it was just one of these. I guess the 0:59:28.920 --> 0:59:33.080 reason I pointed out is even in victory, these base 0:59:33.160 --> 0:59:35.720 but there's so many things going on in these games 0:59:35.880 --> 0:59:38.960 that to be able to harness these relief pitchers and 0:59:39.080 --> 0:59:42.920 to think that there was anything in my handicap that 0:59:43.120 --> 0:59:46.480 led to my victory would be wrong. See that's he 0:59:46.680 --> 0:59:49.880 just worked out. I have bet many games this year, 0:59:50.080 --> 0:59:52.160 and I've been on the right side of games as 0:59:52.200 --> 0:59:55.520 far as my pocket, and I never like I had 0:59:55.600 --> 0:59:58.200 the Rockies play the other day and I was saying 0:59:58.200 --> 0:59:59.840 it on air, the Rockies were the play they end 0:59:59.920 --> 1:00:02.720 up winning, no way, shape or form. Did I see 1:00:02.760 --> 1:00:05.080 that game happening like that. It was the complete opposite 1:00:05.120 --> 1:00:06.920 of what I thought was gonna happen. They just happened 1:00:06.960 --> 1:00:09.600 to win in the end. It was the way the 1:00:09.720 --> 1:00:12.560 reason I was giving you the game. No, that wasn't. 1:00:12.600 --> 1:00:14.640 It just got lucky because of how bad and how 1:00:14.680 --> 1:00:17.400 poorly it was played. Those are my rants like things 1:00:17.520 --> 1:00:19.040 like that, Those are my rants, and I don't just 1:00:19.160 --> 1:00:20.920 keep to myself when I go on Twitter because I'm 1:00:20.920 --> 1:00:24.400 watching these games, going this is this can't be happening. 1:00:24.440 --> 1:00:27.240 This can't be allowed. Why is no one talking to him? 1:00:27.280 --> 1:00:29.120 Why are we seeing this game in and gay out 1:00:29.360 --> 1:00:32.959 game out? Why is? Why would a professional baseball player 1:00:33.000 --> 1:00:34.640 continue to do this? Do they not know better? Have 1:00:34.720 --> 1:00:37.960 they not been taught like? This isn't This isn't baseball 1:00:38.160 --> 1:00:40.600 at an elite level anymore. You see so many different 1:00:40.640 --> 1:00:44.400 things like that. It's well, it's a crazy game these days. 1:00:44.520 --> 1:00:46.400 I come from a betting perspective, and again I guess 1:00:46.560 --> 1:00:48.360 this is the thing with the with betting on sports. 1:00:48.440 --> 1:00:50.840 These games evolved, and I would argue nothing is evolved 1:00:50.920 --> 1:00:53.440 quite as dramatically as baseball has, and it's just the 1:00:53.520 --> 1:00:57.280 tougher sport to harness with at least not it's not 1:00:57.360 --> 1:00:59.200 a fair word. And like the way that the my 1:00:59.320 --> 1:01:04.200 interpretation of evolved, I don't know if it's getting better. No, 1:01:04.360 --> 1:01:08.000 that's not to prefer devolved. Is that what you prefer? Yeah, 1:01:08.080 --> 1:01:12.120 regress a grass when everything goes down. Sorry, consult you 1:01:12.200 --> 1:01:14.800 on my addiction. Let's do can we do? Starting pictures 1:01:14.800 --> 1:01:17.200 from betting perspective, good and bads thus far this year 1:01:17.320 --> 1:01:19.600 Q one real quick, and I'd say one thing real quick. 1:01:20.200 --> 1:01:23.600 I just compared Azzie Smith and no stats. I know, 1:01:23.720 --> 1:01:26.920 I guess it's not even close. Scale is a thousand 1:01:26.960 --> 1:01:29.960 times better baseball Player's right, it's not even close. But 1:01:30.080 --> 1:01:32.840 and that's if you want to just go offensive and 1:01:32.960 --> 1:01:35.720 defensively he's amazing. But I guess my point all as 1:01:35.840 --> 1:01:39.480 as as as sports fans, we do not process, our 1:01:39.560 --> 1:01:42.640 brains do not process that we are being influenced by 1:01:43.040 --> 1:01:46.480 media narrative all those years. Right, So it is not 1:01:46.520 --> 1:01:48.200 by the way, this is not negative about Ozzie Smith. 1:01:48.200 --> 1:01:49.400 I think he should be in the Hall of Fame. 1:01:49.560 --> 1:01:54.560 Great player, right, love Ozzie Smith. But how is that not? 1:01:54.840 --> 1:01:57.640 How is Omar Viscal not in like, it's ridiculous. And 1:01:57.680 --> 1:01:59.520 that's why I tell the Art Monk story. It's like, oh, 1:01:59.560 --> 1:02:01.280 because Art Monk didn't want to talk to the media, 1:02:01.400 --> 1:02:03.040 so therefore he was not in the Hall of Fame 1:02:03.080 --> 1:02:05.440 for nine years. That's the only reason. Anyway, So as 1:02:05.480 --> 1:02:08.160 the backdrop of baseball is that much more difficult to bed, 1:02:08.440 --> 1:02:10.800 let me now segue into here are some stats that 1:02:10.880 --> 1:02:13.640 perhaps will help you bets for a baseball And again 1:02:14.040 --> 1:02:16.400 we started this yesterday the Q one derivative show how 1:02:16.520 --> 1:02:19.040 much of this is narrative? How much of this is predictive? 1:02:19.120 --> 1:02:21.280 That is your task here. So this is from a 1:02:21.320 --> 1:02:25.000 betting perspective, and again it's a it's a bizarro exercise. 1:02:25.600 --> 1:02:29.600 If you bet these starting pitchers laying juice, if they 1:02:29.640 --> 1:02:32.200 were a favorite, betting a unit to win more, if 1:02:32.240 --> 1:02:34.360 they were a dog, who would be the biggest money 1:02:34.400 --> 1:02:35.960 winnershed for you thus far this year? Who would be 1:02:35.960 --> 1:02:39.720 the biggest hemorrhages of money for you? Matt Shoemaker still 1:02:39.840 --> 1:02:42.400 number one by the way out for the seasons with 1:02:42.480 --> 1:02:45.120 the Toronto Blue Jays. That's terrible. But the Blue Jays 1:02:45.160 --> 1:02:49.400 were five and oh. Basically in mattch Shoemaker starts this year, um, 1:02:50.440 --> 1:02:52.600 their team win and lost record anyway was five and 1:02:52.640 --> 1:02:55.320 oh and so he if you bet his starts blindly, 1:02:55.360 --> 1:02:58.160 you'd be up six point seven three units. By the way, 1:02:58.160 --> 1:03:01.920 this courtesy of covers. These are fr widely accessible. Jordan Lyles, 1:03:02.040 --> 1:03:05.520 Andrew Kashner. Now imagine this guy told you if I 1:03:05.600 --> 1:03:07.360 told you before the season, I was like, hey, Josh, 1:03:07.440 --> 1:03:09.120 you think Andrew Cashner will be in the top five 1:03:09.160 --> 1:03:12.040 money winners? Uh this season? When you say Trevor Williams 1:03:12.080 --> 1:03:13.720 four and here's a guy that's a very good chance. 1:03:13.720 --> 1:03:15.080 The answer would have been yes on that if you 1:03:15.120 --> 1:03:18.000 really think about it, Well, they're dogs, correct. We think 1:03:18.040 --> 1:03:20.680 about how we thought about the Orioles, right, but you 1:03:20.800 --> 1:03:22.960 know how I thought about the Orioles that the manager 1:03:23.120 --> 1:03:25.480 was the problem. You did you always said that, you 1:03:25.760 --> 1:03:27.840 and so that's another thing you buck show author big 1:03:27.920 --> 1:03:30.480 media Darling. You always went you buck that. By the way, 1:03:30.760 --> 1:03:33.080 Herman Marquez, who's fifth on that list, the Rockies are 1:03:33.120 --> 1:03:36.440 seven and two in Marquez starts this year. One of 1:03:36.520 --> 1:03:40.000 my in my baseball season win total manifesto in Point 1:03:40.040 --> 1:03:43.000 Spread Weekly before this season started, I am under on 1:03:43.120 --> 1:03:46.240 the Rockies. I may yet be right. So far so 1:03:46.440 --> 1:03:49.200 good on the Rockies who are sub five hundred. But 1:03:49.560 --> 1:03:53.440 Marquees I did not expect him to sustain what he 1:03:53.640 --> 1:03:56.480 was doing second half of last season, and he has absolutely. 1:03:56.520 --> 1:03:59.040 They given that contract extension to right, so I believe 1:03:59.720 --> 1:04:01.320 would have. Well, I think they gave him a decent one. 1:04:01.400 --> 1:04:03.440 So anyway, there's your top five list, and again, how 1:04:03.560 --> 1:04:05.640 much of that is predictive? Like if you look at that, Josh, 1:04:05.680 --> 1:04:07.400 are you do you look at that list? Obviously Shoemaker 1:04:07.440 --> 1:04:11.640 is not applicable here. I what I see is is 1:04:11.880 --> 1:04:14.600 Shoemaker on a contract extension, are needing a contract, right, 1:04:14.600 --> 1:04:16.440 He's on a one year deal. He got left Anaheim, 1:04:16.520 --> 1:04:18.320 so he had to pitch well, so you can see 1:04:18.440 --> 1:04:21.840 him doing well. Uh. Kashner, I've actually been on quite 1:04:21.880 --> 1:04:24.160 a few times, especially first five, so I've made some 1:04:24.280 --> 1:04:27.880 money off him because of the adjustments he's made. He's 1:04:27.880 --> 1:04:29.800 got rid of being cutter happy and he went to 1:04:29.880 --> 1:04:32.160 being changed up happy with the fastball, so he's setting 1:04:32.200 --> 1:04:37.600 it up. He's pitching a lot better. The Pittsburgh Pirate boys. 1:04:38.000 --> 1:04:39.800 They always play well in April, and if you go, 1:04:40.000 --> 1:04:41.800 we'll go back to history. This staff can flat out 1:04:41.840 --> 1:04:44.720 pitch and that team always plays better in April and 1:04:44.800 --> 1:04:47.480 falls off in May. So I mean, I could honestly 1:04:47.600 --> 1:04:51.600 make a case for some of these guys preseason. And 1:04:51.960 --> 1:04:53.880 like I said, with the Kashner thing, knowing what he 1:04:54.040 --> 1:04:57.240 did and then knowing the price you're gonna get, like 1:04:57.640 --> 1:04:59.640 I bet on him twice. One early verse of the 1:04:59.720 --> 1:05:03.440 Yankee he's and I think the one recently was I 1:05:03.520 --> 1:05:05.200 think it was versus tamp I think it was, and 1:05:05.480 --> 1:05:07.360 it was at Tampon ended up pulling it out. I've 1:05:07.400 --> 1:05:09.760 had him twice this year on big money. So, like 1:05:09.880 --> 1:05:11.840 I said, I can make a baby case. It's not 1:05:12.040 --> 1:05:14.720 that surprising to me. But you know how it is. 1:05:15.400 --> 1:05:18.240 There a lot of the guys are always gonna be dogs. 1:05:18.560 --> 1:05:20.440 So you win one out of three, one out of four, 1:05:20.480 --> 1:05:22.920 you're probably making money. Well, that's right, that's why we 1:05:22.960 --> 1:05:24.880 do these lists, right because and and you'll see that 1:05:24.920 --> 1:05:27.120 in the reflected in the bottom five. So the bottom 1:05:27.200 --> 1:05:30.240 five is always gonna be not always, but most of 1:05:30.280 --> 1:05:32.640 the time is going to be littered with big name pitchers. 1:05:32.720 --> 1:05:34.880 Why because they're gonna be huge favorites is the exact 1:05:34.960 --> 1:05:36.560 converse of what you're just talking about. And when they 1:05:36.600 --> 1:05:38.240 lose those games, it's a lot to make up for. 1:05:38.720 --> 1:05:42.720 So Blake snell through, let's be honest, no real fault 1:05:42.760 --> 1:05:45.840 of his own, uh is the is the big loser 1:05:45.920 --> 1:05:48.760 for Oh, we did a reverse order, he's the fifth, 1:05:48.920 --> 1:05:51.400 he's the bottom five, so he's fifth lowest on the list, 1:05:51.760 --> 1:05:55.240 the three and five when he's when he takes the 1:05:55.320 --> 1:05:58.880 hill for his squad um. Marcus Stroman the good version 1:05:58.920 --> 1:06:01.800 of Marcus Stroman this year actually, but hasn't worked out. 1:06:01.840 --> 1:06:05.200 The Blue Jays just really inept on offense. The Blue 1:06:05.240 --> 1:06:08.120 Jays are two and seven in Stroman starts this year, 1:06:08.200 --> 1:06:11.200 so you'd be down six point five units plus almost 1:06:11.200 --> 1:06:13.360 six point six units if you bet Stroman games. Finally, 1:06:13.520 --> 1:06:16.440 then there's Trevor Richards. For goodness sake, poor Trevor Richards. 1:06:16.520 --> 1:06:18.960 So listen, he plays with the Marlins. They've been a dog. 1:06:19.080 --> 1:06:21.360 All eight times he's taken the hill, They've lost each 1:06:21.400 --> 1:06:23.240 and every time. So you'd be down eight units with 1:06:23.240 --> 1:06:25.440 Trevor Richards. And then there's sale in Suzer, two of 1:06:25.480 --> 1:06:27.720 the biggest names in baseball, who are the two biggest 1:06:27.760 --> 1:06:29.600 hemorrhgers here at the Q. One more Yeah, and this 1:06:29.800 --> 1:06:31.560 list like says a lot to me. Once again, I've 1:06:31.600 --> 1:06:33.800 been on the correct side of a lot of these, 1:06:33.880 --> 1:06:35.800 like I was. I was wrong with Blake Snail to 1:06:35.840 --> 1:06:38.120 start the season. He lost that game. I bet, but 1:06:38.320 --> 1:06:40.720 him coming back off the d L recently, I was 1:06:40.800 --> 1:06:43.880 on the other side because of the situation in which 1:06:43.920 --> 1:06:45.640 he came back and he hadn't pitched right. So I've 1:06:45.960 --> 1:06:48.120 I've done okay with Snail. Stroman. I would never bet 1:06:48.160 --> 1:06:49.840 because I don't think he's good, and they don't flat 1:06:49.880 --> 1:06:52.280 out runs per game. They don't score for him. We 1:06:52.360 --> 1:06:54.960 had it. We bet against him the other day at home, 1:06:55.000 --> 1:06:57.680 and even though he'd been dealing in April, they just 1:06:57.720 --> 1:07:00.800 don't score for him. Chris still, he started off on 1:07:01.080 --> 1:07:03.240 five if you were back in him laying two dollars, 1:07:03.680 --> 1:07:05.840 and he was on five and he was struggling his loss. 1:07:05.920 --> 1:07:08.600 He was down. Well, you should probably shouldn't betting anyways, 1:07:08.640 --> 1:07:11.040 because you can't just bet somebody for their name. And 1:07:11.200 --> 1:07:14.280 Max Scherzer was one in seven. So we were betting 1:07:14.320 --> 1:07:17.200 against Scherzer because they weren't winning for him until his 1:07:17.320 --> 1:07:20.080 last start in l A And why because max Us 1:07:20.200 --> 1:07:22.760 was plus money. How many times you get MAXI plus money. 1:07:22.760 --> 1:07:24.360 I'm gonna take an ace on a night game at 1:07:24.360 --> 1:07:27.320 Sunday Night Baseball again that he steps up for because 1:07:27.760 --> 1:07:30.760 of all the attention and who he is and plus money. 1:07:31.120 --> 1:07:33.040 So a lot of these guys, man, you can't just 1:07:33.640 --> 1:07:36.120 you can't just bet these these big dogs at laying 1:07:36.160 --> 1:07:38.360 two and three all the time. That's idiotic. Like you 1:07:38.520 --> 1:07:40.560 have to find the right times to bet these guys 1:07:40.600 --> 1:07:42.640 in order to make money. Like you can't just blindly 1:07:42.680 --> 1:07:44.280 bet the favorites all the time. And the point of 1:07:44.280 --> 1:07:46.520 all this, again is is not to say this will 1:07:46.840 --> 1:07:48.760 always be the case for both the top five and 1:07:48.800 --> 1:07:50.760 the bottom five. It's just this is what has happened 1:07:50.800 --> 1:07:55.680 thus far. Which of these means something moving forward? Which doesn't? 1:07:55.680 --> 1:07:58.080 And I would argue, uh, look, you're always gonna have 1:07:58.120 --> 1:08:00.440 big names on you, Flip Cashner's I've been three to 1:08:00.560 --> 1:08:04.560 three and five. He probably still plus money. Yeah. Still 1:08:04.600 --> 1:08:06.560 the Orioles though, Josh, And that's a tough band. No, 1:08:06.880 --> 1:08:08.200 it's not a good team. I get a yeah, And 1:08:08.280 --> 1:08:09.800 that's what I'm saying. If you have took their manager 1:08:09.840 --> 1:08:11.760 out last year and brought with this manager in Brandon 1:08:11.800 --> 1:08:14.400 Hayden last year with that same team before they traded him, 1:08:14.520 --> 1:08:16.800 do you realize how good that team is? Like all 1:08:16.840 --> 1:08:18.680 those I mean, there's some really good baseball players. They 1:08:19.240 --> 1:08:20.800 Let me just add this about the Orioles though. Before 1:08:20.840 --> 1:08:23.280 the season started, we we talked about their first fifty 1:08:23.320 --> 1:08:25.720 five games and how tough their schedule was. And I 1:08:25.800 --> 1:08:27.960 sat here and I said, I believe. I said, I go, 1:08:28.040 --> 1:08:29.920 if they go fifteen and forty. If I gave you 1:08:29.960 --> 1:08:32.120 the over under fifteen and forty, what would you say? 1:08:32.240 --> 1:08:34.960 And everybody shouted me down and said, oh, you'd have 1:08:35.080 --> 1:08:39.200 to make the line ten. Uh. They're fourteen and twenty six, 1:08:39.320 --> 1:08:41.400 which is not good at baseball, but it's a lot 1:08:41.520 --> 1:08:44.320 better than any of us thought they'd be at this point. 1:08:45.080 --> 1:08:47.559 Orioles still with the worst run differential though, and all 1:08:47.560 --> 1:08:50.120 of baseball. No check that. The Marlins still worse, the 1:08:50.200 --> 1:08:53.040 worst in the American League, minus seventy five, the Marlins 1:08:53.080 --> 1:08:55.120 at minus ninety one in the Nationally. We'll come back. 1:08:55.280 --> 1:08:58.160 We'll do umpires. That's for totals betters and for side 1:08:58.200 --> 1:09:01.040 betters as well when an umpire gets assigned, but primarily 1:09:01.120 --> 1:09:03.200 for totals betters. And we'll bring in Mark Borcher because 1:09:03.200 --> 1:09:05.840 he has a historical umpire database. We'll go through that 1:09:06.160 --> 1:09:09.200 on the Q one MLB Derivative Show here on a Tuesday, 1:09:09.920 --> 1:09:12.800 right here on Visa. Now back to a Numbers game 1:09:12.840 --> 1:09:16.120 with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa 1:09:16.160 --> 1:09:18.559 in studios in Laws, Vegas. Back on the Numbers Game 1:09:18.600 --> 1:09:20.840 here at Visa and sort of lazy Tuesday here as 1:09:20.880 --> 1:09:25.760 the NBA Playoffs resumes tonight. Let's talk umpire, shall we, Josh, 1:09:26.080 --> 1:09:28.559 Let's talk umpires. Yeah, let's talk those guys. All right, 1:09:28.680 --> 1:09:31.080 umpires your favorite thing. Well, I'm curious for your perspective though, 1:09:31.120 --> 1:09:33.320 here Josh, because and let's bring in Mark Borcher from 1:09:33.320 --> 1:09:36.679 Clear Data Sports, who has a umpire database. Nobody likes umpires. 1:09:37.160 --> 1:09:41.040 Uh this, I'm quite fond of them. Uh. These are 1:09:41.040 --> 1:09:44.840 the top five over reliable umpires again this Q one, 1:09:45.800 --> 1:09:48.600 Uh so again this will be perhaps more meaningful Q 1:09:48.800 --> 1:09:51.680 two certainly maybe Q three again Q one. It's a 1:09:51.720 --> 1:09:54.080 little little jan kie because it's like, okay, what does 1:09:54.120 --> 1:09:57.080 this mean anything? But here are your top five over umpires. 1:09:57.200 --> 1:09:58.760 Wolf's not on these lists, and we don't need to 1:09:58.760 --> 1:10:00.479 talk about umpires because he's the US in the game. 1:10:00.479 --> 1:10:02.240 All right. Let me just point out that that Victor 1:10:02.320 --> 1:10:07.559 Kara Pazza and Corey Blazer respectively, four games then when 1:10:07.680 --> 1:10:09.560 when they were behind home plate, all went over for 1:10:09.720 --> 1:10:13.040 Victor Karapasa, three games behind home plate, all went over 1:10:13.120 --> 1:10:15.200 for Corey Blazer. But those are really small sample sizes. 1:10:15.280 --> 1:10:17.080 Let's just jack it up a little bit. Here are 1:10:17.120 --> 1:10:20.160 your top five over umpires. Chad whitson seven of the 1:10:20.200 --> 1:10:22.360 eight games in which he's been calling balls and strikes 1:10:22.400 --> 1:10:24.920 have gone over the total but betting total. And then 1:10:24.960 --> 1:10:27.880 Paul Emil, who's a familiar name. Alan Porter, six out 1:10:27.920 --> 1:10:30.240 of seven games that they've been behind home plate have 1:10:30.400 --> 1:10:34.040 gone over Jeff, Jeff Kellogg and the aforementioned DJ Rayber. 1:10:35.360 --> 1:10:38.800 He made sure of it last night. He absolutely did. Uh. 1:10:38.920 --> 1:10:41.720 That is timely information right there. Five out of six, 1:10:41.840 --> 1:10:44.479 or would have been yesterday anyway, five out of six 1:10:44.560 --> 1:10:48.120 have gone over uh thus far this year when those 1:10:48.160 --> 1:10:50.400 guys have been calling balls and strikes. Bringing Mark Bortser 1:10:50.400 --> 1:10:52.400 from Clear Data Sports. He's, by the way, courtesy of 1:10:52.439 --> 1:10:56.360 covers dot Com as well Mark. Any of those names, uh, 1:10:56.479 --> 1:11:00.760 Kara Pasa, Blazer, Witson, Emil Porter, Kellogger Rayber and any 1:11:00.880 --> 1:11:04.360 historical consistency there with those guys. Yeah, And just to 1:11:04.479 --> 1:11:06.800 kind of give you the methodology, just real briefly, it's 1:11:06.840 --> 1:11:10.160 a four year weighted average and strikeout percentage, walk percentage, 1:11:10.200 --> 1:11:13.040 and groundball percentage, and that that gives you, uh an 1:11:13.080 --> 1:11:16.639 expected to earned run average for the umpire So Alan 1:11:16.760 --> 1:11:19.880 Porter and Paul Emil or in the top I would 1:11:19.880 --> 1:11:22.280 say twelve. But one thing I wanted to ask Josh 1:11:22.280 --> 1:11:24.200 because I think I heard him talking about this guy 1:11:24.920 --> 1:11:28.679 is Alfonso Marquez. Was that was that guy in nemesis 1:11:28.760 --> 1:11:32.400 for a picture. No, not Alfonso, who was the guy 1:11:32.439 --> 1:11:34.800 that you were talking about that. It's the one who 1:11:34.920 --> 1:11:41.560 has the lawsuit against MLB um Angel Hernandez, Angel Hernandez. 1:11:41.640 --> 1:11:44.960 He's the one that he intentionally factors in. He makes 1:11:45.000 --> 1:11:47.599 it about him. He's the He's the umpire that every 1:11:47.680 --> 1:11:49.559 player I have yet to meet a player that likes him. 1:11:49.600 --> 1:11:51.920 We all pay to see Angel hernandas well. Yeah, think 1:11:52.080 --> 1:11:54.880 that's exactly. He's Alfonso Marquez actually a really good dude. 1:11:56.000 --> 1:11:58.760 So Emmelyn Porter, So Emlyn Porter your two days because 1:11:58.760 --> 1:12:02.200 I thinks that's huge. It's not just this year. These 1:12:02.280 --> 1:12:06.760 guys are consistently over over over umpires over time. So 1:12:07.479 --> 1:12:10.640 sites like stat Fox they will have umpire assignments. So 1:12:10.720 --> 1:12:14.639 when you are handicapping your games, particularly on totals, note 1:12:14.800 --> 1:12:17.639 that when emmil and Porter are calling balls and strikes, 1:12:18.400 --> 1:12:20.360 how about the opposite here, Mark, Let's do the top 1:12:20.479 --> 1:12:23.559 five under umpires thus far this year, Rob Drake, six 1:12:23.640 --> 1:12:26.519 out of seven behind own plate have gone under, Chris Siegel, 1:12:26.600 --> 1:12:31.280 and Andy Fletcher and Mike Esterbrook. Oh there's Mike Esterbrook. Mark, 1:12:31.400 --> 1:12:33.080 we we know that name. Four out of five have 1:12:33.160 --> 1:12:35.760 gone under and there's dan Iya Sonja also a guy 1:12:35.800 --> 1:12:37.439 that we've talked about through the years. You and me 1:12:37.560 --> 1:12:39.679 Mark on on the Beating of the Book podcast six 1:12:39.760 --> 1:12:43.960 out of eight under our esterbrook Sonia always under guys 1:12:44.040 --> 1:12:47.680 or is this a departure? So their component their components 1:12:47.720 --> 1:12:51.000 stats are indicate that they go to the under there 1:12:51.000 --> 1:12:54.439 in the top can of under opp fires and then 1:12:55.120 --> 1:12:57.680 Marley and and the other guy asked the Brook eat 1:12:57.760 --> 1:13:00.719 numbers three. As far as our you know, advance ratings 1:13:00.800 --> 1:13:03.559 for for umpires who who you know, the component rates 1:13:03.600 --> 1:13:06.360 would would suggest that it would go under. Okay, so 1:13:06.600 --> 1:13:09.720 Esther Brooke and I Sonia consistent under guys because you 1:13:09.760 --> 1:13:12.600 know Drake siegelan fletcher who knows. Maybe that's just naberration 1:13:12.640 --> 1:13:14.360 here in a small sample size, but here's what we 1:13:14.439 --> 1:13:17.200 know again on the overside, Emily and Porter are the 1:13:17.280 --> 1:13:19.360 names you need to focus on st the Brook and 1:13:19.400 --> 1:13:21.200 I Sonia the names you need to focus on on 1:13:21.320 --> 1:13:25.000 the underside. And that is some key betting information again 1:13:25.080 --> 1:13:27.800 for not only totals betters, also side betters as well, 1:13:27.880 --> 1:13:31.880 but in this case um primarily the totals side of things. 1:13:31.960 --> 1:13:34.080 Thank you, Mark, I appreciate the database man. Thank you 1:13:34.160 --> 1:13:38.719 for that my pleasure, gil Mark Mark Clear Data Sports. 1:13:38.720 --> 1:13:40.920 Oh we cut off Mark like I like guys on 1:13:41.000 --> 1:13:45.240 the right. Deanders is a good umpires. Those are good umpires. 1:13:45.560 --> 1:13:47.800 So true about DJ Rayburn, though he made sure that 1:13:47.920 --> 1:13:50.240 game went over. That's That's another thing about last night's game. 1:13:50.600 --> 1:13:54.280 The under betters went to die on that pitch, like Nope, 1:13:54.360 --> 1:13:55.760 that's not right, by the way. The other thing. And 1:13:55.800 --> 1:13:57.920 then when I faced the same hitter over and over again, 1:13:58.000 --> 1:14:00.320 I better make an adjustment. You know that are gonna 1:14:00.320 --> 1:14:01.800 make a justice back. I can't pitch to them in 1:14:01.800 --> 1:14:03.599 the exact same way I face you a hundred times ago. 1:14:03.600 --> 1:14:06.920 I better make some adjustments. When I watched Vogel box swing, 1:14:07.720 --> 1:14:09.959 I don't think that I have to make an adjustment. 1:14:10.000 --> 1:14:11.800 I don't see a guy that's gonna set me up 1:14:11.880 --> 1:14:13.600 very much. And he's a pretty big dude, so his 1:14:13.680 --> 1:14:17.040 swing is pretty limited. He's an extension guy. I would 1:14:17.080 --> 1:14:19.519 be pounding him in over and over again, like every 1:14:19.600 --> 1:14:21.080 day I go over the scarring report. Let's say every 1:14:21.080 --> 1:14:23.080 four days we go to the scary report. You're gonna go. 1:14:23.520 --> 1:14:25.400 You can get vocal back in, you can get Vogel 1:14:25.400 --> 1:14:28.000 back in. That's not really gonna change over the course 1:14:28.040 --> 1:14:29.920 of his season. Like, he's the one guy that I 1:14:30.000 --> 1:14:32.080 think I would stay hard in majority of the time 1:14:32.080 --> 1:14:33.800 when I would go away, I would throw something so 1:14:34.680 --> 1:14:36.240 so off the plate away that I got him to 1:14:36.360 --> 1:14:38.160 cheat to look. But then I would come back hard 1:14:38.200 --> 1:14:40.240 in Like the pitch that he hit over the wall. 1:14:40.680 --> 1:14:42.320 That's the one pitch I would stay away from, something 1:14:42.400 --> 1:14:44.080 out over that he can get extended on. That's his 1:14:44.160 --> 1:14:46.519 bread and butter um. And again, not to just focus 1:14:46.600 --> 1:14:48.439 on this one Athletics Mariners game, but the last thing 1:14:48.479 --> 1:14:50.920 about this because the reason I am is because it 1:14:51.120 --> 1:14:53.560 represented so much about the sport of baseball, represented so 1:14:53.680 --> 1:14:56.240 much about betting baseball last night, the vagaries of it, 1:14:56.479 --> 1:14:59.320 and so much of what you just scream about as 1:14:59.360 --> 1:15:00.960 a guy who's like a get off my law and 1:15:01.000 --> 1:15:04.599 baseball guy. Loriano's homer in the top of the tenth 1:15:04.720 --> 1:15:06.720 that at the time put the Athletics up five to 1:15:06.840 --> 1:15:10.519 four was something that would have driven you crazy because 1:15:10.640 --> 1:15:12.640 it was so clear that all he was doing was 1:15:12.720 --> 1:15:16.880 sitting on a breaking ball and and just Brennan was 1:15:16.960 --> 1:15:18.960 just like, Okay, here's your breaking ball, and he just 1:15:19.080 --> 1:15:20.519 launched it in the left fields and it was just 1:15:20.720 --> 1:15:22.000 he would have I thought about you. I was like, 1:15:22.240 --> 1:15:24.400 if Josh is washing, this is losing his mind. At 1:15:24.439 --> 1:15:26.439 this point. We'll come back. Thank you to our bortcher 1:15:26.479 --> 1:15:29.320 for the umpires there. We'll come back. We'll do the 1:15:29.920 --> 1:15:32.280 much more interesting stuff for betters. We'll do first five 1:15:32.360 --> 1:15:35.160 inning stats and then we'll get into some proprietary first 1:15:35.160 --> 1:15:37.439 sitting stats for first inning bettors as well. Is the 1:15:37.479 --> 1:15:40.559 Q one MLB Derivatives episode Here on a numbers game 1:15:40.600 --> 1:15:43.360 at Visa now live from the Vision Studios in the 1:15:43.439 --> 1:15:47.040 South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is 1:15:47.080 --> 1:15:49.679 our number two of the numbers game right here had Visa, 1:15:49.760 --> 1:15:52.280 the VEG Stats and Information Network, serious XP, Channel two four, 1:15:52.400 --> 1:15:55.800 Visa dot Com, the Vista app, Fubo TV, Slink TV, 1:15:56.120 --> 1:16:00.519 Game Plus throughout Canada, New York City. We appreciate everybody listening. 1:16:01.040 --> 1:16:03.799 Josh Towers kind enough to join us on this Tuesday 1:16:03.920 --> 1:16:06.800 for our Q one MLB Derivative show Pulse spor be 1:16:06.880 --> 1:16:09.120 joining us for fan graphs later on. He'll have your 1:16:09.200 --> 1:16:11.880 DFS plays of the day and who knows producing number five. 1:16:11.920 --> 1:16:14.000 Jeff Parls might have a baseball pick later on in 1:16:14.040 --> 1:16:16.919 the show. By the way, Borcher with the Umpire database. 1:16:17.080 --> 1:16:18.640 Very kind of him to join, even though he's on 1:16:18.680 --> 1:16:21.040 the ten D d L right now. For the picks segment, 1:16:21.600 --> 1:16:24.880 he went out of winner under the DL he gotta win, 1:16:24.920 --> 1:16:26.439 and then he bounced and then he went on the 1:16:26.560 --> 1:16:27.760 end and then I had a comment and then where 1:16:27.760 --> 1:16:28.960 I like, you you have an injury. He's like, what 1:16:29.160 --> 1:16:30.360 are you talking about. I was like, no, no, you 1:16:30.439 --> 1:16:33.840 have an injury. UM. We love Mark borcherd by the way, um, 1:16:34.160 --> 1:16:36.840 and we appreciate that umpire database because that is that 1:16:37.040 --> 1:16:40.720 is gold right there. That is solid betting stuff right there. 1:16:40.880 --> 1:16:43.200 So let's move on. Let's go to the uh first 1:16:43.360 --> 1:16:47.320 five innings here and years ago, so this is about 1:16:47.320 --> 1:16:49.320 seven or eight years ago. I ran it to Tom 1:16:49.400 --> 1:16:52.160 Federico over there a team rankings and he had baseball 1:16:52.160 --> 1:16:54.479 stats and I and I said, this is before first 1:16:54.600 --> 1:16:56.680 five bets were that mainstream. And I said to him, 1:16:56.720 --> 1:16:59.240 I go, you know you have on your website all 1:16:59.280 --> 1:17:03.400 this great inning by inning data, you know, betters bet 1:17:03.560 --> 1:17:06.840 the first five innings. Can you cull that together and 1:17:06.960 --> 1:17:10.559 put those out? And he was like, oh, he wasn't 1:17:10.680 --> 1:17:12.760 necessarily aware of at the times like sure, and so 1:17:12.880 --> 1:17:14.519 they did it there. By the way, now you have 1:17:14.560 --> 1:17:16.960 guys at team rankings who try to like troll us 1:17:16.960 --> 1:17:19.320 about saying tight rims in college basketball games, which is 1:17:19.400 --> 1:17:23.200 another hilarious side of that. UM, keep doing that, by 1:17:23.240 --> 1:17:26.760 the way, So MLB team first five innings runs per game. 1:17:26.800 --> 1:17:28.920 This is courtesy of the good folks over at team Rankings, 1:17:28.960 --> 1:17:32.960 Tom Federico's operation over there. Seattle Mariners thus far this year, 1:17:33.040 --> 1:17:37.120 again through again as the teams round the game bend 1:17:37.200 --> 1:17:41.439 here Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers three point four 1:17:41.520 --> 1:17:45.439 or five runs on offense per first five thus far 1:17:45.560 --> 1:17:47.760 this year, the Twinkies right behind them at three point 1:17:47.840 --> 1:17:51.439 four two, and then the Brewers and the Cubs. Uh thereafter. 1:17:51.760 --> 1:17:55.680 No real surprises there, although I guess the Mariners are 1:17:55.720 --> 1:17:57.599 the one. Would you say, Josh, that you would expect 1:17:58.080 --> 1:18:00.760 to slough off that list? Perhaps? I bet if you 1:18:00.960 --> 1:18:03.200 cut the first quarter and a half and you go 1:18:03.320 --> 1:18:05.880 first twenty games, second twenty games, I bet it would 1:18:05.920 --> 1:18:07.880 be a huge discrepancy in that number. Think you might 1:18:07.920 --> 1:18:09.560 be right, but I think the Twins in the in 1:18:09.640 --> 1:18:12.280 the Cubs, I bet that there's a consistency there. Red 1:18:12.320 --> 1:18:15.280 Sox Cardinals, Dodgers right after that. Top five by the way, 1:18:15.320 --> 1:18:18.719 so usual suspects. If you go to bottom five, Marlins 1:18:18.760 --> 1:18:22.160 are the worst one point four six runs per first 1:18:22.200 --> 1:18:24.360 five minutes. Now imagine, so this is also part of 1:18:24.680 --> 1:18:26.920 I would like to say this. If you're betting the 1:18:27.000 --> 1:18:29.679 Miami Marlins, let's say your model spits out, Oh the Marlins, 1:18:29.720 --> 1:18:34.400 there's value on the Marlins here first five. Um imagine 1:18:34.720 --> 1:18:37.880 that you have to live through that experience where they're 1:18:37.920 --> 1:18:41.719 only scoring one point four six runs per first five 1:18:41.800 --> 1:18:44.280 thus far this year. That is a just in addition 1:18:44.360 --> 1:18:47.360 to probably being a losing bet, it's just an ugly 1:18:47.479 --> 1:18:51.880 experience as a human being. Giants one point seven, Padres 1:18:51.960 --> 1:18:54.240 one point eight. By the way, these are all real 1:18:54.320 --> 1:18:56.920 bad Blue Jays one point two and Tigers one point 1:18:57.000 --> 1:18:59.400 eight seven. You don't usually in all my years doing this, 1:19:00.200 --> 1:19:03.599 you don't usually have five teams there at the bottom 1:19:04.040 --> 1:19:07.920 that are sub two runs per first five. Usually is 1:19:07.920 --> 1:19:10.320 a couple of teams. But that's that's bad. The game 1:19:10.400 --> 1:19:12.880 has has changed to the point where not every not 1:19:13.040 --> 1:19:15.280 all three teams can compete for a World Series. There 1:19:15.400 --> 1:19:18.800 there's such a discrepancy and good teams and teams that 1:19:18.880 --> 1:19:23.000 can't compete anymore. That this is has turned into the norm. 1:19:23.080 --> 1:19:24.960 And when we talked about it briefly about how bad 1:19:25.080 --> 1:19:27.960 hitting has has gotten over the last twenty years. You know, 1:19:28.120 --> 1:19:30.760 ten thousand, nine hundred more strikeouts last year compared to 1:19:30.800 --> 1:19:35.240 oh five. It's crazy what we've seen the change in offense. 1:19:35.280 --> 1:19:38.960 And so this is becoming the normal. Unfortunately, the four teams, 1:19:39.000 --> 1:19:41.439 the Marlins, the Giants, the Blue Jays, the Tigers, we 1:19:41.600 --> 1:19:43.360 knew they were going to be bad. But that's not 1:19:43.439 --> 1:19:45.680 a surprise. Well that was my question, is it you 1:19:45.760 --> 1:19:47.840 say that flippantly? Now, that's not a surprise at all. 1:19:48.240 --> 1:19:50.760 But would you have said the Padres would be at 1:19:50.760 --> 1:19:52.800 one Monday the Padres, I would not have said, Okay, 1:19:52.800 --> 1:19:54.280 that's when they're still a good team, which tells you 1:19:54.360 --> 1:19:56.559 how great their pitching staff is as far as records 1:19:56.600 --> 1:19:59.599 are concerned. Um, that actually shocks me that they're only 1:19:59.680 --> 1:20:02.519 at one point eight. But that goes into their ballpark 1:20:02.520 --> 1:20:04.920 a little bit, I'm sure, and they're twenty two and nineteen, 1:20:05.000 --> 1:20:08.040 three games above four games back, three games above five, 1:20:09.040 --> 1:20:10.960 at one point eight per five innings, so that that 1:20:11.040 --> 1:20:13.000 pitches top is doing a fantastic job. But I thought 1:20:13.040 --> 1:20:15.679 that they would score a little bit more. That is Petko. 1:20:15.720 --> 1:20:18.000 I'd have to check ballpark faticals. Just Petco still as 1:20:18.040 --> 1:20:19.639 big of a pitcher's park as it once was. I'm 1:20:19.640 --> 1:20:22.040 not sure. Numbers wise, I don't know, but going in there, 1:20:22.120 --> 1:20:24.240 the perception when you're pitching, you can't wait to pitch there. 1:20:24.840 --> 1:20:27.960 Blue Jays one eight two, They're a tough watch offensively, 1:20:28.080 --> 1:20:31.599 It's not um of those teams that moving forward. As 1:20:31.600 --> 1:20:33.680 you look at that at that both top five and 1:20:33.720 --> 1:20:35.800 bottom five, and you say to yourself, all right, that's 1:20:35.840 --> 1:20:38.840 all narrative. That's what's happened so far. What is the 1:20:38.920 --> 1:20:42.360 team reliably that you think will be consistent moving forward. 1:20:42.520 --> 1:20:44.360 I mean, I look at that Rangers team and I'm like, yeah, 1:20:44.400 --> 1:20:46.360 they can drop. You know. Look, the Rangers had a 1:20:46.400 --> 1:20:48.320 couple of games there where they scored a ton of runs, 1:20:48.880 --> 1:20:50.920 and I can't remember how many of those were waited 1:20:50.960 --> 1:20:54.000 to the first five. But the Rangers always explosive offensively. 1:20:54.160 --> 1:20:56.759 The Twins, who may be the best story in baseball 1:20:56.800 --> 1:20:59.240 by some measure thus far this year, um so I 1:20:59.280 --> 1:21:02.360 think there's some that's that's what the inconstituencies of not 1:21:02.560 --> 1:21:05.240 having Nelson Cruz because he's been doing out of the lineup. 1:21:05.320 --> 1:21:08.160 But you're talking about the top five, the Rangers, I'm sorry, 1:21:08.160 --> 1:21:11.080 the Mariners will fall off because of home run can there? 1:21:11.120 --> 1:21:13.200 They rely so heavily on the home run and the 1:21:13.280 --> 1:21:15.240 type of team they are with how many errors they make. 1:21:15.280 --> 1:21:18.120 I think they legal league and errors and strikeouts as well. Um, 1:21:18.439 --> 1:21:20.880 the Mariners will taper down those other four teams in 1:21:20.920 --> 1:21:24.120 my opinion, they'll stay pretty consistent right there with those runs. 1:21:24.920 --> 1:21:27.200 On the flip side to the bottom five, I can 1:21:27.240 --> 1:21:31.080 see the pladres changing slightly. The other four teams, nothing's 1:21:31.080 --> 1:21:33.519 going to change with their offense. Petko by the way, 1:21:33.560 --> 1:21:36.200 twenty six and ballpark factors, so yes, there is something 1:21:36.280 --> 1:21:39.719 to to that. By the way, right after that top five, 1:21:39.880 --> 1:21:43.240 the Indians there, they're so bad, the Orioles so bad. 1:21:43.360 --> 1:21:46.960 No surprises. Um. So that's courtesy of team rankings. Again, 1:21:47.000 --> 1:21:49.000 thank you to the team rankings folks. Uh. That is 1:21:49.640 --> 1:21:52.599 the average runs scored per first five thus far this year. 1:21:52.960 --> 1:21:56.880 When we get into actual now wins and losses first five. 1:21:57.520 --> 1:22:02.200 This is from Joe Osborne. Is that correct? Jeff Okay? Uh? So, 1:22:02.360 --> 1:22:04.639 Joe Osborne, the shout out to him for providing these 1:22:04.720 --> 1:22:06.160 is the first five. We usually go to my my 1:22:06.280 --> 1:22:09.960 boys at onside sports. We'll get to their onside sports, 1:22:10.000 --> 1:22:12.000 and in Q two we'll get to their splits on 1:22:12.080 --> 1:22:14.200 these and it gets a little deeper. But this uh 1:22:14.400 --> 1:22:21.760 courtesy first five innings record here, Um, the Rays four, 1:22:21.960 --> 1:22:24.200 twelve and three. These are for again if you went 1:22:24.240 --> 1:22:27.040 through the Bizarro exercise of betting these teams blindly first 1:22:27.080 --> 1:22:29.040 five each and every game thus far this year, it 1:22:29.200 --> 1:22:31.840 is the Raise and the Twins, who I think are 1:22:31.920 --> 1:22:36.280 the two most uh, the two big surprises to the 1:22:36.360 --> 1:22:39.680 good in baseball this year thus far, rave and three 1:22:39.760 --> 1:22:43.120 Twinkies twelve and four. And then you have the Phillies, 1:22:43.160 --> 1:22:49.760 the Cardinals and the Dodgers. Um, no real huge surprise. 1:22:49.840 --> 1:22:53.720 I guess they're um rounding up the top five first 1:22:53.800 --> 1:22:55.560 five and you go to the bottom five. Now this 1:22:55.760 --> 1:22:58.160 is always interesting. So the Marlins are the worst. The 1:22:58.200 --> 1:23:00.720 Marlins are the worst period right there? Not twenty three 1:23:00.760 --> 1:23:04.880 and seven, the Rockies eleven, twenty one and eight. Now, 1:23:05.000 --> 1:23:07.240 this was my point when I did the under on 1:23:07.320 --> 1:23:10.680 the Rockies. I just don't trust that starting staff well, right, 1:23:10.680 --> 1:23:12.720 because last year the starting staff was amazing and the 1:23:12.760 --> 1:23:14.760 bullpen couldn't. They were the worst ever this year. The 1:23:14.800 --> 1:23:17.680 starting staff it's atrocious, and the bullpen is awesome. Well, 1:23:17.760 --> 1:23:20.120 they had some bullpen parts last year. They had outo 1:23:20.160 --> 1:23:22.120 Vino last year, but they still struggle as a whole. 1:23:22.120 --> 1:23:23.760 They were like average, like e r A. Wise, they 1:23:23.800 --> 1:23:25.320 were like the worst. They blew a lot of games. 1:23:25.400 --> 1:23:28.320 It's they flipped between starting and relieving from last year 1:23:28.400 --> 1:23:30.080 this year. But that was my point that the Rocky 1:23:30.160 --> 1:23:32.599 starting pitcher, and I was I was wrong about Marquez, 1:23:32.680 --> 1:23:36.120 but I thought the rotation up and down was not sustainable. 1:23:36.160 --> 1:23:38.040 And so you can see this now through the first 1:23:38.080 --> 1:23:41.280 five inning betting stats. Rockies eleven, twenty one, and eight. 1:23:41.600 --> 1:23:43.559 If you bet them first five blindly, and by the way, 1:23:43.560 --> 1:23:46.240 if you're doing that, something's wrong with you. Giants eleven, 1:23:46.320 --> 1:23:50.240 twenty three and six's Giants Marlins all on every list. 1:23:50.479 --> 1:23:54.120 Jay's how about the Nationals though, right, Nationals thirteen and seventeen. 1:23:54.600 --> 1:23:58.160 So that's got to be somewhat surprised. First five, That's 1:23:58.160 --> 1:24:00.599 what I'm saying. So first five you're talking about, well, 1:24:00.640 --> 1:24:02.920 this is the limit. Has been good, sure, there's not 1:24:03.040 --> 1:24:06.360 been bad, has been good. So you have like Sanchez 1:24:06.400 --> 1:24:09.200 and whoever else has been that bad. So think about that, Jeff. 1:24:09.479 --> 1:24:11.920 They just had a weekend, a four game series in 1:24:12.120 --> 1:24:14.719 l A where Corbin won in the first five, Animal 1:24:14.800 --> 1:24:17.920 Sanchez got crushed in the first Max lost, Max lost, 1:24:18.000 --> 1:24:20.240 and Strasburg lost. Well, part of that was what we 1:24:20.320 --> 1:24:22.599 were just talking about. With how many runs they're producing 1:24:22.680 --> 1:24:25.160 first five. We only flashed up the top five, but 1:24:25.200 --> 1:24:27.920 if you extended that to the top ten, Washington's in it. 1:24:28.000 --> 1:24:30.719 They only swore two point to seven runs per first 1:24:30.760 --> 1:24:32.880 five thus far this year. That informs a lot of it. 1:24:32.920 --> 1:24:35.479 By the way, we didn't put up the first five 1:24:35.720 --> 1:24:40.559 allowed UM also courtesy of team rankings. This is first 1:24:40.640 --> 1:24:44.840 five allowed the Reds, your Cincinnati Reds, Josh, they can 1:24:44.880 --> 1:24:48.360 pitch man one point six six runs allowed, they can 1:24:48.400 --> 1:24:54.960 first five. So they're like basically UM pitching against the 1:24:55.120 --> 1:25:00.120 Giants offense first five, as are the Rays basically each 1:25:00.160 --> 1:25:02.160 it every time out thus far this year. Raise one 1:25:02.200 --> 1:25:04.599 point six second. If you take away the blown saves 1:25:04.640 --> 1:25:06.200 by Glaciers. And I'm not putting this all on a 1:25:06.240 --> 1:25:08.400 Glaciers but because their offense isn't very good. But if 1:25:08.439 --> 1:25:10.080 you take away the blown saves, let's just say he 1:25:10.160 --> 1:25:12.080 has a he's having a great start to blows one 1:25:12.080 --> 1:25:14.800 save on the season. Great start there in first place. Yeah, 1:25:14.800 --> 1:25:19.320 their offense is tough to watch. UM Dodgers one point 1:25:19.400 --> 1:25:21.960 nine three, Yankees two twins two point one. Certainly no 1:25:22.040 --> 1:25:26.559 surprise with the Dodgers necessarily or the Yankees. UM bottom 1:25:26.640 --> 1:25:30.599 five is allowed runs allowed per first five the White 1:25:30.640 --> 1:25:33.680 Sox because this is first five innings runs alloud. All 1:25:33.760 --> 1:25:35.920 the talk about the Yankees and their starting staff isn't 1:25:36.040 --> 1:25:38.240 very good and we don't trust the starting staff and 1:25:38.560 --> 1:25:40.800 c C and happens, right, and look how good they look, 1:25:40.840 --> 1:25:42.960 how good they are. And by the way, this is 1:25:43.000 --> 1:25:46.960 with a you know, injury riddled Yankees version right for 1:25:47.080 --> 1:25:50.320 most of the Q one, Um, they're gonna be just 1:25:50.439 --> 1:25:52.080 fine the rest of the way. White Socks are the 1:25:52.120 --> 1:25:58.600 worst defenders in terms of giving up runs first five Orioles, Rangers, Angels, 1:25:58.800 --> 1:26:04.080 Mariners all north of three runs per first Keep that 1:26:04.160 --> 1:26:05.640 list out real quick. I just want to go to 1:26:05.920 --> 1:26:09.320 errors in baseball. The Mariners are leading all the baseball 1:26:09.400 --> 1:26:11.559 in forty five thirty nine errors. There on that list. 1:26:15.040 --> 1:26:17.920 The White Sox second most errors thirty five. Are they 1:26:17.960 --> 1:26:20.360 on that list? Yep? They're the worst. They're the worst 1:26:20.400 --> 1:26:24.759 three point four runs allowed per first five awesome Orioles, Rangers, Angels, 1:26:25.479 --> 1:26:27.400 and and then you make a good point though, that's 1:26:27.439 --> 1:26:30.519 the that's the part of this equation. We we immediately 1:26:30.560 --> 1:26:33.400 gravitate towards the pitching. But there's there's flies in the ointment, 1:26:33.640 --> 1:26:36.120 and flies in the ointment is your defense. And if 1:26:36.160 --> 1:26:41.000 your defense is letting you down, well yeah, because those 1:26:41.040 --> 1:26:43.280 aren't urn runs. Those are just run. Those are just runs. 1:26:43.520 --> 1:26:45.519 That's right, those aren't urn runs. Those are just runs. 1:26:45.920 --> 1:26:48.960 We'll be back, we'll talk first first inning wagers. So 1:26:49.000 --> 1:26:51.519 again with all of this stuff, the point is, all right, 1:26:51.880 --> 1:26:56.360 that's what's happened. Uh, it's interesting. But if I'm handicapping 1:26:56.439 --> 1:26:58.760 a game tonight or tomorrow night, can you put that 1:26:58.880 --> 1:27:02.120 up like gils talking? Can you apply this moving forward? 1:27:02.200 --> 1:27:06.120 And my answer to you would be um, sometimes yes, 1:27:06.880 --> 1:27:09.280 most of the time's probably not especially Q one here. 1:27:09.600 --> 1:27:11.360 Most of this A lot of this could just be 1:27:11.479 --> 1:27:14.400 aberrations here in a forty game sample size. There are 1:27:14.520 --> 1:27:17.439 there are some things in there, though, again the Yankees 1:27:17.479 --> 1:27:20.479 being one of them, the red starting staff. That that's 1:27:20.520 --> 1:27:23.840 some information that I think you can use moving forward. 1:27:23.880 --> 1:27:27.439 But it feel real quick, that top five least runs allowed, 1:27:28.080 --> 1:27:31.080 So four of the five are top ten in defense. 1:27:31.400 --> 1:27:33.920 There you go. The only one that's not is the Yankees. 1:27:34.160 --> 1:27:37.439 Is the Yankees, and yet look at the Yankees overcoming that. 1:27:38.000 --> 1:27:40.720 All right, we'll do first innings as well, and these 1:27:40.800 --> 1:27:43.200 get into sort of proprietary stats now that you won't 1:27:43.240 --> 1:27:45.760 find anywhere else. We'll go through uh team rankings, will 1:27:45.760 --> 1:27:49.160 give us the first inning score percentages and score percentages allowed. 1:27:49.479 --> 1:27:52.640 But then I'll go into the database and give you 1:27:52.760 --> 1:27:58.200 the on base percentage allowed by starting pitchers thus far 1:27:58.360 --> 1:28:00.320 this year, in just the first inning, will do a 1:28:00.360 --> 1:28:04.160 minimum Q one here of thirty plate appearances faced. This 1:28:04.320 --> 1:28:06.320 is interesting coming up on a numbers game Q one 1:28:06.439 --> 1:28:09.840 MLB derivatives right here, visa back to a numbers game 1:28:09.880 --> 1:28:13.120 with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our VS 1:28:13.200 --> 1:28:15.519 in studios in Las Vegas. I should point out that 1:28:15.840 --> 1:28:18.280 Josh Tower is in my producer number five. Jeff Parl's 1:28:18.360 --> 1:28:21.519 almost went two blows here in the break over a. 1:28:21.960 --> 1:28:24.080 But if you hear the argument, it doesn't make sense. 1:28:24.160 --> 1:28:27.480 We're we're we're on the opposite side to the spectrum 1:28:27.520 --> 1:28:30.240 on the on the great defensive shortstops. One in the 1:28:30.320 --> 1:28:31.559 Hall of Fame. One not in the Hall of Fame. 1:28:31.600 --> 1:28:34.120 We're talking about Viscale and Ozzie Smith again. But you're 1:28:34.200 --> 1:28:37.439 what you're saying is defensive means absolutely nothing I'm saying. 1:28:37.479 --> 1:28:39.800 You're saying it defense is irrelevant when you're talking about 1:28:39.800 --> 1:28:41.400 getting into the Hall of Fame, So you might as 1:28:41.400 --> 1:28:44.719 well put like, I don't even know there's some hitters 1:28:44.760 --> 1:28:47.439 that are so bad, but so every d h should 1:28:47.439 --> 1:28:49.639 be in the Hall of Fame. I'm gonna say six 1:28:49.720 --> 1:28:52.280 words that didn't often say on this show. I'm with 1:28:52.479 --> 1:28:58.720 Josh on this one. That's funny. Yah, Josh is right, 1:28:59.640 --> 1:29:02.040 because you're saying then it's just so you don't believe 1:29:02.080 --> 1:29:04.080 the scale or Ozzie should be in the Hall of Fame. 1:29:04.400 --> 1:29:07.479 That just means that you're emphasizing one side of the game. 1:29:07.520 --> 1:29:11.760 And all those guys aren't even in lineups for their offense, right, 1:29:11.800 --> 1:29:13.519 Like that has nothing to do with them even playing 1:29:13.560 --> 1:29:18.760 the spade baseball, you know. And Omar Viscale is unassailably 1:29:18.800 --> 1:29:20.160 he should be in the Hall of Fame. If ozz 1:29:20.160 --> 1:29:22.200 he's in, I mean he's only he's only a couple 1:29:22.200 --> 1:29:24.439 of hundred below three thousand hits. But the Jeff Parl's 1:29:24.520 --> 1:29:27.040 Offensive Baseball Hall of Fame does not include busts or 1:29:27.080 --> 1:29:31.120 those two guys. There's there's Cooper's down and then there's Jeff's. 1:29:31.320 --> 1:29:32.760 But that's there they two were talking about. You're talking 1:29:32.760 --> 1:29:34.479 about a leadoff guy in a second hold hitter. You're 1:29:34.479 --> 1:29:36.519 not talking about power guys, like not everybody hit the 1:29:36.520 --> 1:29:38.519 ball over the fence. That's not that's not I mean, 1:29:38.680 --> 1:29:41.160 because if we're doing that, I understand that. But would 1:29:41.200 --> 1:29:45.240 you count what would you say those guys are average? 1:29:45.680 --> 1:29:48.400 Were they offensive liabilities? Would you count those guys? And 1:29:48.439 --> 1:29:52.519 I know and I know Viscale had almost over They 1:29:52.640 --> 1:29:55.880 both became better hitters as their career progressed, but they 1:29:55.960 --> 1:30:00.800 were awful hitters early for sure, for sure, but they 1:30:00.840 --> 1:30:04.760 were just absolute outmakers, right, they were vacuums. That's part 1:30:04.840 --> 1:30:07.040 of the sport of baseball. And again, my only point 1:30:07.120 --> 1:30:09.160 is this, if Ozzy's in the scale has to be in. 1:30:11.280 --> 1:30:14.400 All this stuff is subjective. Listen, I made the Art 1:30:14.479 --> 1:30:16.800 Monk argument, like how Art Monk had to wait nine 1:30:16.960 --> 1:30:20.040 years as a centerpiece for three Super Bowl champions and 1:30:20.120 --> 1:30:22.200 had led the NFL in the most catches at the 1:30:22.240 --> 1:30:24.720 time of his at the time of his retirement. But 1:30:25.520 --> 1:30:28.960 Lynn Swan, who everybody immediately would say, of course, Lynn 1:30:29.000 --> 1:30:30.759 Swans in the hallway. By the way, everybody in Pittsburgh's 1:30:30.760 --> 1:30:32.559 hating me right now for breathing this up. But Lynn 1:30:32.680 --> 1:30:36.200 Swan caught three hundred and however many balls. That's all 1:30:36.240 --> 1:30:38.240 he caught in his entire NFL career. But he had 1:30:38.560 --> 1:30:42.639 iconic catches in Super Bowls, right, made in two seasons. 1:30:43.560 --> 1:30:45.880 It was a different it was a different understand, it 1:30:45.920 --> 1:30:47.400 was a different game. Let me just point that out. 1:30:47.479 --> 1:30:51.160 But still, but he's and no one questions it is. 1:30:51.280 --> 1:30:53.880 Of course he's in because he's Lynn Swan. And I'm 1:30:53.880 --> 1:30:55.720 just saying the subjectivity of these kinds of things that 1:30:55.800 --> 1:30:57.160 you know, you can talk days about it well, And 1:30:57.240 --> 1:30:59.439 that's That's another one that I'm not going to bring 1:30:59.560 --> 1:31:01.479 up on air that we talked about off the air, 1:31:01.600 --> 1:31:03.840 that that Josh and I could probably talk about for 1:31:04.560 --> 1:31:05.920 I want to ask you a question on those how 1:31:06.000 --> 1:31:08.679 many home runs do you think Buster Posey's and Yadia 1:31:08.680 --> 1:31:11.560 I'm reallyna have I guess we just brought it in. 1:31:11.680 --> 1:31:13.600 I know for a fact that Yadio Molinda does not have, 1:31:14.040 --> 1:31:16.280 does not have a lot. How many good Buster Posey 1:31:16.360 --> 1:31:18.800 has in his career, I'd probably a similar number to 1:31:18.880 --> 1:31:22.080 Molina correct, give or take, give or take, give take 1:31:22.080 --> 1:31:23.920 twenty home runs, right, what do you think the number is? 1:31:23.920 --> 1:31:25.519 Do you know the number? I don't know the number 1:31:25.520 --> 1:31:28.800 off the top of my head. Under two hundred career homers. 1:31:31.760 --> 1:31:33.599 So we're talking about on basse plus slugging, and you're 1:31:33.600 --> 1:31:35.040 talking about two guys that are two of the best 1:31:35.080 --> 1:31:37.599 of what they do defensively are amazing. Three World Series 1:31:37.640 --> 1:31:40.760 for Buster forced onlen base attempts this year, no one 1:31:40.880 --> 1:31:44.679 runs on Yaddi. He calls a fantastic game rule change 1:31:44.760 --> 1:31:47.519 forced by Buster Posey on an injury. I think both 1:31:47.600 --> 1:31:49.320 of those guys are Hall of famers. So that's where 1:31:49.360 --> 1:31:52.200 I'm kind of contradictory all over the place. Here you're 1:31:52.200 --> 1:31:54.720 talking about hits for Bose, You like he doesn't even 1:31:54.800 --> 1:31:57.000 have half of them. As hell, here's the thing, how 1:31:57.080 --> 1:31:59.919 much do you do you put in the postseason success? 1:32:00.040 --> 1:32:03.960 Suppose zero? Zero? Postseason means nothing to me when you're 1:32:03.960 --> 1:32:06.360 talking about the Hall of Fame, because not everybody gets 1:32:06.360 --> 1:32:07.560 to go to the Hall of Fame. I mean the 1:32:07.600 --> 1:32:10.880 postseason but that's a team sport to my game, plut 1:32:10.960 --> 1:32:13.720 my point of subjectivity. That matters to some voters, right yeah, 1:32:13.720 --> 1:32:15.479 and it matters nothing to me because you don't there's 1:32:15.520 --> 1:32:18.599 no guarantees that you're going to the postseason, but does 1:32:18.680 --> 1:32:21.960 guarantee you're playing in And we're comparing your three thousand hits. 1:32:22.160 --> 1:32:23.560 That's what you did in the regular season. That's not 1:32:23.600 --> 1:32:25.400 what you did in the postseason. You may never have 1:32:25.439 --> 1:32:27.040 went to the postseason. I may have win every year 1:32:27.080 --> 1:32:28.560 because I was in the right place. I got a 1:32:28.560 --> 1:32:30.479 World Series ring because I happened to sign with the 1:32:30.600 --> 1:32:32.479 right team at the right time. Had nothing to do 1:32:32.600 --> 1:32:35.320 with me, so that I get credit for that, that's ridiculous. 1:32:36.400 --> 1:32:39.920 You slip that in there, Jenn nicely. The postseason means 1:32:40.000 --> 1:32:42.880 absolutely nothing when we're talking about Hall of Fame. Well, 1:32:43.120 --> 1:32:45.000 some people would disagree with you, but yes, we will 1:32:45.000 --> 1:32:47.160 bring the last possible. By the way, people landing on 1:32:47.160 --> 1:32:48.200 the show for the first time, I'm like, God, I 1:32:48.240 --> 1:32:50.320 only talks about his base. It's like, this is the 1:32:50.400 --> 1:32:52.600 first day where we've gone all baseball that on this 1:32:52.800 --> 1:32:56.759 Let's do first innings for betters because first inning wagers 1:32:56.840 --> 1:32:58.400 or something that I've talked about on the Beating of 1:32:58.400 --> 1:33:00.759 the Book podcast on on a numbers game now for years. 1:33:01.280 --> 1:33:05.240 They just started offering first inning wager wagers here at 1:33:05.280 --> 1:33:07.800 the South Point, and now everybody is talking about him. 1:33:08.520 --> 1:33:12.439 But there is a very uh systematic way that we 1:33:12.560 --> 1:33:14.880 bet first innings. I don't necessarily talk about it on air, 1:33:15.240 --> 1:33:17.120 but let's talk about the stats thus far. This is 1:33:17.160 --> 1:33:19.439 provided from our good friends over team rankings. Once again, 1:33:19.760 --> 1:33:23.400 this is first inning scoring percentages, so the percentage of 1:33:23.479 --> 1:33:27.360 games thus far this year where this team's offense has 1:33:27.439 --> 1:33:31.519 played a run or more. No surprise, Josh, who would 1:33:31.520 --> 1:33:34.960 be number one on this list? Correct? Say the question again? 1:33:35.840 --> 1:33:40.560 Sorry Josh, to interrupt you. First inning scoring percentage, it's 1:33:40.600 --> 1:33:44.400 the race, so more than one in two games, right, 1:33:44.479 --> 1:33:47.280 more than half the time. The Rays offenses playing a 1:33:47.360 --> 1:33:49.799 run in the first inning has discussed often on this network. 1:33:50.080 --> 1:33:53.479 Everybody going crazy about the Rays first inning, yeses um, 1:33:53.720 --> 1:33:55.080 but the Rays offense has had a lot to do 1:33:55.160 --> 1:33:57.000 with that. By the way, it drops after the race. 1:33:57.040 --> 1:34:00.280 It drops all the way to for second bet, which 1:34:00.280 --> 1:34:03.639 is the Yankees. Uh, and then Atlanta the Braves played 1:34:03.680 --> 1:34:05.960 a run thirty nine point zero two percent of the 1:34:06.000 --> 1:34:08.559 time and first dates thus far this year. But clearly 1:34:08.640 --> 1:34:11.920 it's the raise, just the outlier here in Q one. Now, 1:34:11.960 --> 1:34:14.960 I would argue, right, we're talking about what of this 1:34:15.080 --> 1:34:17.439 is narrative and one of this is predictive? To me, 1:34:18.040 --> 1:34:21.920 this is not predictive, right, No team is going to 1:34:22.040 --> 1:34:25.800 sustain that over the course of an MLB season. So 1:34:26.400 --> 1:34:29.400 just file that away and you can get back to 1:34:29.479 --> 1:34:32.000 me on that um. By the way, the opposite of 1:34:32.040 --> 1:34:34.599 that again, courtesy of team rankings, who is scoring runs 1:34:34.720 --> 1:34:37.519 the least percentage wise their offense, that is playing a 1:34:37.600 --> 1:34:40.080 runner more in the first sitting, the San Francisco Giants, 1:34:40.160 --> 1:34:44.080 Ready for this, Josh, one out of every ten games 1:34:44.280 --> 1:34:47.120 scoring the first of the time they scored the first. 1:34:47.720 --> 1:34:50.080 Chase that around find the right picture for them. You 1:34:50.200 --> 1:34:52.799 chase that around crazy. That might be a little more predictive, 1:34:52.800 --> 1:34:54.240 but it's not gonna be that low. They'll get better 1:34:54.320 --> 1:34:58.240 than that. No, it's not gonna get that much better. 1:34:58.280 --> 1:35:00.559 I don't think Giants ten percent. By the way, Marlin's 1:35:00.720 --> 1:35:03.280 usual suspects fifteen point three eight percent of the time 1:35:03.320 --> 1:35:05.439 we talked about how they barely scored both of these 1:35:05.479 --> 1:35:08.759 teams in the first five let alone the first inning itself, 1:35:08.880 --> 1:35:12.680 so that makes sense. The Cardinals, uh, seventeen point zero 1:35:12.760 --> 1:35:14.360 seven percent of the time in the first stating. That's 1:35:14.360 --> 1:35:17.240 a little weird, but you know, Carps that well haven't 1:35:17.240 --> 1:35:19.679 made too many adjustments first sitting, so it's strange, little 1:35:19.960 --> 1:35:22.880 microcosum right of a game. I retie on that list. 1:35:23.600 --> 1:35:27.599 Pirates are, yeah, their seventh best, So it goes raised 1:35:27.960 --> 1:35:30.639 scoring a lot. That's scoring a lot in the first stitting. 1:35:31.040 --> 1:35:33.320 It's because Melkie's hitting so good this year? Was he 1:35:33.320 --> 1:35:35.640 about in second? He's hitting You know, me and my 1:35:35.680 --> 1:35:39.200 buddy Mark Meltzer like cell through watching uh Melkie yesterday, 1:35:39.280 --> 1:35:42.320 We're like, wow, Melkie still playing. He's top ten average. 1:35:42.360 --> 1:35:44.479 I think Milkie is still playing after all these years. 1:35:44.800 --> 1:35:46.320 By the way, the opposite of this, now this is 1:35:46.520 --> 1:35:53.000 first inning opponents score percentage. So the best at run 1:35:53.200 --> 1:35:56.360 prevention in the first sitting, we're talking on a team basis. 1:35:56.400 --> 1:35:59.960 It is the Minnesota Twins, whose opponents have only school 1:36:00.040 --> 1:36:04.720 word of the time in the first inning. Pittsburgh zero 1:36:04.800 --> 1:36:08.360 five percent, Chicago Cubs twenty one point zero five percent. 1:36:08.439 --> 1:36:10.599 Those are the best three in terms of run prevention. 1:36:11.240 --> 1:36:13.519 The worst, now, this is the double whammy for the 1:36:13.600 --> 1:36:15.760 Giants because we just talked about how the Giants were 1:36:15.800 --> 1:36:17.800 the worst in the first inning. They only score one 1:36:17.840 --> 1:36:20.680 out of every ten games in the first inning. They 1:36:20.720 --> 1:36:23.280 are the worst team in baseball when it comes to 1:36:23.439 --> 1:36:27.960 first inning run prevention because their opponents score forty two 1:36:28.080 --> 1:36:30.600 point five percent of the time in the first in 1:36:30.720 --> 1:36:32.360 It's so funny because when Tampa went in there and 1:36:32.439 --> 1:36:35.439 played them the first inning, was they destroyed. It was 1:36:35.520 --> 1:36:40.400 just it was unbelievable. Um Royals, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins 1:36:40.439 --> 1:36:42.600 again usual suspects versities. By the way, it was in 1:36:42.680 --> 1:36:45.479 six the Nationals, which is again that sort of weird 1:36:45.600 --> 1:36:47.680 thing with the Nationals. They've allowed to run in the 1:36:47.680 --> 1:36:49.800 first innings thus far this year thirty five percent of 1:36:49.840 --> 1:36:52.000 the time. They're six worst than that. But the Giants 1:36:53.800 --> 1:36:56.479 the Kniella of bad to use the old hi all 1:36:56.520 --> 1:37:00.760 I betting turn the they are, uh, they are a 1:37:00.840 --> 1:37:05.200 first sitting disaster thus far. Today is the first inting. 1:37:06.040 --> 1:37:09.200 So so now here's the thing. Three dollars. Now, I 1:37:09.400 --> 1:37:11.360 just want to point this out. I do not bet 1:37:11.600 --> 1:37:14.799 first innings this way, but I am providing this information 1:37:14.880 --> 1:37:16.560 for you because people love to hear these kind of 1:37:16.560 --> 1:37:18.840 sets of like, oh, the Giants, they're they're worst on 1:37:19.000 --> 1:37:22.320 offense and first intings, their worst in pitching and first innings. 1:37:22.960 --> 1:37:24.960 It's actually not how I bet first sittings, but it 1:37:25.040 --> 1:37:27.800 is interesting information. Thank you to Team Rankings for that stuff. 1:37:27.840 --> 1:37:32.639 Now now for the proprietary pitching stuff. Um so I'm 1:37:33.040 --> 1:37:35.160 I go through and this is again it's a little 1:37:35.160 --> 1:37:39.160 different Q one, especially with starting pictures because obviously they're 1:37:39.160 --> 1:37:41.439 on a rotation. So I made a minimum here of 1:37:41.640 --> 1:37:45.000 thirty plate appearances faced here Q one of the Major 1:37:45.080 --> 1:37:47.760 League Baseball season. But these are the pictures who have 1:37:47.920 --> 1:37:51.560 allowed the highest and just for giggles, I went with 1:37:51.720 --> 1:37:55.320 on base percentage as the opposing stat These are the 1:37:55.320 --> 1:37:57.680 pictures that have allowed the highest and the lowest on 1:37:57.760 --> 1:38:00.920 base percentage that's in the first inning of own thus 1:38:00.960 --> 1:38:05.080 far this year. Any idea, who the worst offender in 1:38:05.240 --> 1:38:08.320 first innings thus far this year is of starting pitchers, 1:38:08.640 --> 1:38:12.000 the guy who is just a gas can in the 1:38:12.120 --> 1:38:14.760 first frame. I gotta feeling it's not gonna surprise me. 1:38:16.280 --> 1:38:18.160 I have to check to see if this is even true. 1:38:18.800 --> 1:38:22.640 Freddy Peralta, well, yeah, we bet against him again last night. 1:38:22.880 --> 1:38:25.320 He's been getting absolutely well, he's not ready for the 1:38:25.360 --> 1:38:27.800 big leagues. And the one game that he did pitch well, 1:38:27.840 --> 1:38:29.719 by the way, they had a they had an opener 1:38:29.760 --> 1:38:31.559 pitch to first and then he came in afterwards, which 1:38:31.640 --> 1:38:34.360 was not last night. It was the outing before and 1:38:34.439 --> 1:38:38.240 then last night it was the same thing. Uh, he's 1:38:38.280 --> 1:38:40.519 guiding the ball, he's not fining. I watched him pitch 1:38:40.640 --> 1:38:43.320 last night and he was like almost hoping it to 1:38:43.400 --> 1:38:45.559 go to a location and not. It was really, he's 1:38:45.600 --> 1:38:47.439 not ready. Yeah. I didn't by the way, when I 1:38:47.479 --> 1:38:49.040 said I I gotta check to see if this is true, 1:38:49.080 --> 1:38:51.320 I didn't mean to check that if Freddy Peralta is true, 1:38:51.320 --> 1:38:53.320 I mean to see, like his stats are so bad 1:38:53.800 --> 1:38:56.360 that I have to check. I guess they are. Freddy 1:38:56.400 --> 1:38:58.920 Peralta of the of the Milwaukee Brewers, which to give 1:38:58.960 --> 1:39:02.559 you the number in first innings this year he's given 1:39:02.640 --> 1:39:05.680 up and this is just thirty three at bats against him, 1:39:05.880 --> 1:39:08.880 not so minimum thirty plate appearances, but thirty three official 1:39:08.920 --> 1:39:15.200 at bats. He's given up um four homers the opposing 1:39:15.360 --> 1:39:18.360 Here's here's the better stat on this. The opposing batting 1:39:18.400 --> 1:39:20.840 average on first innings against Peralta thus far this year 1:39:20.920 --> 1:39:23.639 is four fifty five. That's their batting average. I'm gonna 1:39:23.680 --> 1:39:25.320 show you something real quick. This is just the way 1:39:25.360 --> 1:39:27.000 I see it, So last, hold on, hold on, let 1:39:27.040 --> 1:39:31.040 me finish on base percentage against five thirty eight, five 1:39:31.160 --> 1:39:33.920 thirty eight, Josh his whips one point six three slugo 1:39:33.960 --> 1:39:36.200 eight seventy nine. I'm sorry, go ahead. Well, last night 1:39:36.280 --> 1:39:38.639 he went four innings and he gave up two runs 1:39:39.040 --> 1:39:41.320 versus the Phillies. The game before was the game he 1:39:41.439 --> 1:39:43.360 came out of the bullpenny pitch five innings that gave 1:39:43.439 --> 1:39:45.559 up nothing, but he didn't pitch in the first inning, right, 1:39:46.000 --> 1:39:50.360 So before that four innings, nine runs versus the Rockies 1:39:50.439 --> 1:39:52.960 three and a third, three runs, three and a third 1:39:53.160 --> 1:39:57.240 seven runs, one good game and three innings four runs. 1:39:57.320 --> 1:39:59.559 So he's giving up a mass amount of runs early 1:39:59.600 --> 1:40:01.080 in his ours and he's not going to deep and 1:40:01.080 --> 1:40:03.040 they're trying to get something out of him, but they can't. 1:40:03.280 --> 1:40:05.400 So now they're trying to figure out how to find 1:40:05.960 --> 1:40:09.599 success for this kid. And honestly, sometimes you just rushed 1:40:09.600 --> 1:40:11.120 them to the big leagues too early. And I think 1:40:11.200 --> 1:40:14.280 this might be a case with him second worst pitcher 1:40:14.439 --> 1:40:17.360 thus far this year in first innings and this is 1:40:17.400 --> 1:40:20.360 a live looking now to the San Francisco Giants talks 1:40:20.400 --> 1:40:23.160 with Derrick Collins once again, Derek, you have an injury. No, 1:40:23.280 --> 1:40:25.439 I don't, Derek knows, seriously, you have an injury. You're 1:40:25.439 --> 1:40:28.080 going on the Tende deal. No, seriously, I don't. Yeah, 1:40:28.400 --> 1:40:31.080 you are. Derrek Collin then goes to the media and says, 1:40:31.240 --> 1:40:33.840 I have a fake injury. Everybody, the Giants are gaming 1:40:33.880 --> 1:40:36.479 the game, Derrek Collin. First innings. This might have a 1:40:36.520 --> 1:40:38.040 lot to do with the why the Giants were like, 1:40:38.320 --> 1:40:42.040 you have an injury, Derek. Derrek hollind just behind Freddie Peralta. 1:40:42.520 --> 1:40:47.000 Opposing batters four seventy one on base percentage first innings 1:40:47.240 --> 1:40:50.680 against Derrik Collin. Trevor Richards, who we brought up as 1:40:50.760 --> 1:40:52.760 one of the biggest hemorrhagers of money of all US 1:40:52.760 --> 1:40:56.000 starting pitchers thus far this year. Eight starts with the Marlins. 1:40:56.160 --> 1:40:58.000 The Marlins are O and eight. In those starts, he's 1:40:58.040 --> 1:41:00.280 down eight units because they were dog and all of them, well, 1:41:00.320 --> 1:41:03.040 he's not helping himself. In the first innings. Opposing batters 1:41:03.280 --> 1:41:06.880 four thirty nine on base percentage first innings. You know 1:41:06.920 --> 1:41:12.120 who's fourth. Corey Kluber. Yeah, Corey Cluber, who obviously uh 1:41:12.760 --> 1:41:14.760 is now not pitching because of the line drive that 1:41:14.840 --> 1:41:18.439 fractured his arm. But Corey Kluber terrible start this year 1:41:18.720 --> 1:41:21.640 and started games was bad. Four thirty two opposing on 1:41:21.760 --> 1:41:24.760 base average against Clueber first innings thus far this year. 1:41:24.840 --> 1:41:29.120 So Peralta, who is not only the highest in on 1:41:29.280 --> 1:41:31.960 base average, but he's also the highest and slugging percentage 1:41:31.960 --> 1:41:37.719 batting average Homer's Ribby's posing teams have fifteen RBIs against 1:41:37.720 --> 1:41:42.840 which his first innings alone. Um, that's Peralta, Holland, Richards, 1:41:42.880 --> 1:41:45.200 and Cluber. Again, just some names to remember as you 1:41:45.280 --> 1:41:48.240 handicapped baseball slatesia every day. That explains his when he 1:41:48.280 --> 1:41:49.840 gave up the home run last night, the two on 1:41:49.880 --> 1:41:52.600 the homer that tied the game. That explains why he 1:41:52.720 --> 1:41:56.880 reacted the way he did. Peralta. Yeah, I'm just picturing 1:41:56.960 --> 1:41:59.120 what he did and stuff, and she's just had it. 1:41:59.720 --> 1:42:01.640 Here's here's the flip side of the Actually, no, that 1:42:01.680 --> 1:42:04.800 was Jeffreys. I take that back, Jeffrey Jeffries home run. 1:42:04.960 --> 1:42:07.519 Here's the flip side of that. These are starting pitchers, 1:42:07.560 --> 1:42:10.880 minimum thirty plate appearances faced first innings thus far this year. 1:42:10.920 --> 1:42:13.000 These a proprietary here on a numbers game at Visa. 1:42:13.840 --> 1:42:18.400 Cole Hamile's our old friend, Cole Hamiles, best first inning 1:42:18.439 --> 1:42:23.360 pitcher thus far in baseball this year. Opponent's opponents slash 1:42:23.439 --> 1:42:27.439 line against Cole Hamile's just first innings alone zero seventy 1:42:27.520 --> 1:42:32.679 seven batting average, one seventy two, on base slugging percentage 1:42:33.720 --> 1:42:35.960 eight k's three walks. He's just been great in the 1:42:36.000 --> 1:42:39.080 first innings. Harmon Marquez, who we brought up earlier for 1:42:39.120 --> 1:42:42.759 the Rockies. Everything he did the last stretch of last season, 1:42:42.840 --> 1:42:45.280 he has just carried over first innings. He's the second 1:42:45.280 --> 1:42:48.880 best pitcher in baseball in terms of not necessarily again 1:42:49.200 --> 1:42:50.920 with with the betting step, but we're talking about just 1:42:51.040 --> 1:42:54.879 his raw stats. On base average allowed first innings Marquees 1:42:54.960 --> 1:42:58.680 second to Cole Hamiles one seventy two. Mart Marquez just 1:42:58.760 --> 1:43:02.639 at allowing a one eight eight on base against first innings. 1:43:02.920 --> 1:43:07.040 Chris Sale. For all of his troubles Josh Chris Sale 1:43:08.240 --> 1:43:12.080 at one four in the first innings against, so first 1:43:12.120 --> 1:43:14.360 innings have not been his issue. And you know who 1:43:14.439 --> 1:43:17.240 he's tied with an on base average against Ryan Stannic 1:43:17.360 --> 1:43:20.720 of the Rays. Well, who's giving up runs? I think 1:43:20.800 --> 1:43:22.960 once and ten outings or something. Yeah? Who? Of course 1:43:23.120 --> 1:43:25.960 is a a relief picture that is being used as 1:43:25.960 --> 1:43:28.600 an opener. Right, So that so now I know you 1:43:28.720 --> 1:43:31.280 hated this last year, but can you give the race 1:43:31.400 --> 1:43:34.240 some dap that this like makes sense for them on 1:43:34.400 --> 1:43:36.960 some level? Then? Yeah, but you saw what happened when 1:43:37.360 --> 1:43:40.680 Blake's now got hurt, right, They didn't have enough starting rotation. Um, 1:43:41.280 --> 1:43:43.559 so they went into a skin when winning games. They 1:43:43.600 --> 1:43:45.679 started to lose when Blake went out because they didn't 1:43:45.680 --> 1:43:48.240 have enough starters to do their jobs. So on one hand, yeah, 1:43:48.240 --> 1:43:50.640 it works when they have the right and the right 1:43:50.720 --> 1:43:53.559 amount and the right starting pictures, but when they lose somebody, 1:43:53.720 --> 1:43:56.040 it puts them in a very bad position. Let me 1:43:56.080 --> 1:43:57.879 just give them the best list to get at Hamil's 1:43:57.920 --> 1:44:06.000 Marquees Sale, Stanic Flarity, Snell Strasburg, Robbie Ray. The analytics 1:44:06.040 --> 1:44:09.360 folk love Robbie Ray, who might be the good version 1:44:09.360 --> 1:44:11.320 of Robbie Ray this year. Those are the best first 1:44:11.360 --> 1:44:13.840 inning in terms of all based average lot So again, um, 1:44:14.800 --> 1:44:17.040 those are just some It's just food for thought from 1:44:17.080 --> 1:44:19.759 a team perspective and also from a starting picture perspective 1:44:20.200 --> 1:44:23.880 on what they give up, what they prevent, what they 1:44:23.920 --> 1:44:26.120 don't prevent. In terms of first innings, if you're betting 1:44:26.160 --> 1:44:28.680 first innings, not necessarily how I bet them, but a 1:44:28.720 --> 1:44:30.640 lot of folks like to bet them this way. What 1:44:30.800 --> 1:44:33.719 is sustainable? What is not? The rays are not. Ladies 1:44:33.760 --> 1:44:35.200 and gentlemen, just telling you that right now,