Speaker 1: Uh check it down Man Now down Now Thursday, May
Speaker 1: sixteen days book podcasts, Kill Alexander, How you doing Big
Speaker 1: One Today? Three parts included. Right in the middle our
Speaker 1: Preakness picks from Marco D'Angelo, Peter for Nital and Ron Flatter.
Speaker 1: That is wedged in between the meat of this one
Speaker 1: preceded by the interview that I had on my Visa
Speaker 1: show with the Better who walked into a Reno william
Speaker 1: Hills sports Book thought he won six hundred nine thousand
Speaker 1: dollars after the Kentucky derby, only to win thirty five thousand.
Speaker 1: That story precedes the Preakness picks, and the picks are
Speaker 1: followed by the mlb Q one derivative show. All your
Speaker 1: five inning and first inning stats included. It's the Beating
Speaker 1: the book podcast. Enjoy. This is a number game with
Speaker 1: Jill Manandard broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and Information Network.
Speaker 1: Those studios who believe in the analytics, analytics, statistics and
Speaker 1: more are used to win wagers and Gil has every
Speaker 1: number you need to catch your tickets now live from
Speaker 1: the Visa Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino.
Speaker 1: It's Gil Alexander in the place to be. It's a
Speaker 1: numbers game right here at Visa Vegas Stats that information
Speaker 1: network series except Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com,
Speaker 1: the Visa app, Footbo TV, Sling TV, and of course
Speaker 1: Game Plus in Canada. In New York City. We appreciate
Speaker 1: everybody tuning in today. It's Gil Alexander. Did I mention
Speaker 1: that Jeff Parls is here as well? Good morning, Jeffrey
Speaker 1: Um Marco is here. By the way, Marco was sticking
Speaker 1: around because the next segment, Uh, Dr freelanders coming on
Speaker 1: and we'll have you crack and I talking to him.
Speaker 1: Dr Freelander is again. Uh, the gentleman who um was
Speaker 1: denied a massive payout at a William hillboat before he
Speaker 1: gets here, and we'll talk to him and then we'll
Speaker 1: get we'll get opinions afterwards. But you know, let me
Speaker 1: let me go with how I view this, and then
Speaker 1: you tell me if I'm nuts. How I view it
Speaker 1: is this way. So he went to a William Hill shop,
Speaker 1: that is that does not delve into the paramutual odds
Speaker 1: pool and so um the issue is, was it clearly
Speaker 1: stated at that sports book, and that's really what the
Speaker 1: debate may come down to, was it clearly stated that
Speaker 1: they were using ultimately their own odds. Their odds were
Speaker 1: kept um And so my thing is it's gonna come
Speaker 1: down to that. And by the way, people who think,
Speaker 1: oh gaming will never side with him, that's actually not true.
Speaker 1: You never know with gaming. My thing is this, and
Speaker 1: I think this, and I'll say this again next hour,
Speaker 1: but I want to get your opinion on this. To me,
Speaker 1: the real thing here that's not being spoken about enough
Speaker 1: is maybe, and maybe it is in some circles. So
Speaker 1: I don't want to say that no one is. But
Speaker 1: if you have a ticket taker at that behind the counter,
Speaker 1: the person who is taking that bet at this william
Speaker 1: Hills shop in Reno, Nevada, if that person cared at
Speaker 1: all about their job. And this is the reason this
Speaker 1: is so near and dear to all of us, is
Speaker 1: this is so reflective of apathetic people behind counters in
Speaker 1: certain companies more than others. Here in Las Vegas, h
Speaker 1: william Hill being one of them. Uh, the company that
Speaker 1: those letters never can't give a damn uh c g.
Speaker 1: They have guys, not everybody, but who don't seem to care.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they're apathetic in the job. But if that if
Speaker 1: that ticket. If that if that person behind the counter
Speaker 1: had just said to this person, hey, listen the size
Speaker 1: of your bet here, just to let you know our
Speaker 1: odds are capped. Maybe you want to either reduce your
Speaker 1: bed or you know, we have another shop across the
Speaker 1: way there where it is actually in the paramutual pool.
Speaker 1: Maybe you go make that bet over there so you
Speaker 1: get your bang for your buck. Isn't that really where
Speaker 1: this starts? It doesn't it, you know, not being there
Speaker 1: and being able to see where they have the signage
Speaker 1: and how visible it is. But it's gonna be buy
Speaker 1: or beware. If it's fine print somewhere, it's still you know,
Speaker 1: your responsibility, check your tickets and understand. But it should
Speaker 1: say at least right in the board non paramutual waging
Speaker 1: somewhere that needs to be displayed. That's the biggest question
Speaker 1: because then you can ask the question. But again, most
Speaker 1: people betting the Kentucky Derby that are just casual betters.
Speaker 1: They don't know the difference between paramutual and non paramutual aging, right.
Speaker 1: But so so that's the thing. So now we'll find
Speaker 1: out what he contends. Where the where the fine print was,
Speaker 1: if it was really visible or was it not from
Speaker 1: his perspective? But that's again, and I just say this
Speaker 1: in this in this day of legalization, Marco, like this
Speaker 1: kind of you know, this kind of gray area where like,
Speaker 1: oh was it properly displayed? Was it not? Let's face it,
Speaker 1: most betters are uneducated, right. I don't know that Dr
Speaker 1: Freelander isn't is an educated will find out from him
Speaker 1: momentary really, but like you can't do the same way.
Speaker 1: And let let me say, beyond the ticket taker, right
Speaker 1: beyond the person behind the counter, isn't there some approval
Speaker 1: process like in sports, which is a different jurisdiction in
Speaker 1: the William hillsphere, by the way, it should be pointed out,
Speaker 1: but in sports, there's an approval process for every single bet.
Speaker 1: Don't we know that? Right? Like every time you make
Speaker 1: a bet of Eddy, Oh, they're they're watching it. Shouldn't
Speaker 1: there have been one on another level for this as well?
Speaker 1: They should have with you know from what I saw
Speaker 1: with the article and he had forty dollar try effected ticket.
Speaker 1: Those are huge bat um, which again that goes to
Speaker 1: the ticket seller. I don't think you ever really have
Speaker 1: that issue with horse racing because for the most part,
Speaker 1: everyplace else is para mutual. Doesn't matter who wins, they
Speaker 1: don't care. They've got their set fee. And I don't
Speaker 1: know that anybody on I don't want to dismiss ticket writers,
Speaker 1: but or at that pay grade they even understand. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but the complication listen, I don't want to crowbar the
Speaker 1: south Point into this just because we're here at the
Speaker 1: south Point. But people know, like you know, Chrissie Andrews,
Speaker 1: Vinny Malula, we love these guys. Let me let me prompt,
Speaker 1: let me speak on their behalf just for a second.
Speaker 1: If someone here works and is apathetic or doesn't care
Speaker 1: or doesn't care to inform like the way, they will
Speaker 1: not be here. I think I'm okay speaking on their
Speaker 1: behalf on that, like, because because they do, this place
Speaker 1: is done lovingly right, and you just can't in this
Speaker 1: day and age, you can't have this. And so you're right. Look,
Speaker 1: we're gonna find out and and I'm not taking one.
Speaker 1: I'm not wholly on one side here, because we'll find
Speaker 1: out what the circumstances are. But I just think it's
Speaker 1: it's just an fascinating situation, and with legalization ever more,
Speaker 1: a situation that should be highlighted Dr Friedlander next on
Speaker 1: a numbers game at Vista Now live from vis Studios
Speaker 1: in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: our number two of a numbers game right here at
Speaker 1: Visa the Bay. That's an information networks serious XM Channel
Speaker 1: two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App, Fobo TV,
Speaker 1: Sling TV Game Plus throughout Canada and New York City
Speaker 1: and very parts of New Jersey. We appreciate everybody listening
Speaker 1: this morning. Uh, this should be very interesting. Joining me
Speaker 1: here for the first segment. By the way, in studio
Speaker 1: Marco D'Angelo as well, coming off his Breakness talk here
Speaker 1: earlier and as always Thursday Second Hour, s O. Buddy
Speaker 1: at at Bill Crackman with the K on Twitter, Sir
Speaker 1: Fred Bill Crackenberg, Good morning, Billy, Good morning. How you
Speaker 1: guys doing doing very well? Good? Nice? Just Uh, I
Speaker 1: was just telling my buddy, my buddy, Brian. I came
Speaker 1: over with I don't know how people do it every morning,
Speaker 1: like it really is tough to do, wake up to
Speaker 1: an alarm clock. I do it once a weekend. I'm pissed. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, if you if you could interview me well,
Speaker 1: first of all forgetting me. How about Mitch and Pauli
Speaker 1: here for four in the morning. Yeah, but if you could,
Speaker 1: if you could stick a mic in my face, like
Speaker 1: that's the few seconds that you wake up, as many
Speaker 1: people do with an alarm clock, it would be a
Speaker 1: totally different response than it would be now. So so
Speaker 1: those guys are going to bed that means like nine o'clock,
Speaker 1: then I am right. This is my thing with Bish
Speaker 1: and Pauli, And I say this to everybody I go.
Speaker 1: I have so much respect for them because if you
Speaker 1: told me today you're like, all right, Gil, tomorrow you're
Speaker 1: gonna start doing four am, might be like, yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: we're good. Like I would just I would just bug
Speaker 1: out right there, because I don't know how they're able
Speaker 1: at that hour to speak about sports with nuance, you know,
Speaker 1: interest and insight. So it's an amazing thing. And when
Speaker 1: I asked him what's your routine? Their response is fast
Speaker 1: and there like it's never the same man. Wow, So
Speaker 1: they can hang out and drinking at midnight sometimes I
Speaker 1: don't know about that. Yeah, guys, Oh no, that's great
Speaker 1: though that could be as well. Maybe that's the secret.
Speaker 1: But yeah, no, Hey, look, we're talking sports. It's a
Speaker 1: beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing. We're blessed. Uh and uh,
Speaker 1: yesterday you know, I was sitting around the old house
Speaker 1: as like, you know, let let me let me see
Speaker 1: if I can find this gentleman Dr. C. Friedlander, who
Speaker 1: is the gambler to you, the guy who went into
Speaker 1: a book there in Reno, Nevada, William Hill book. And uh, well,
Speaker 1: let's just say he made a wager that, thanks to
Speaker 1: maximum securities, disqualification resulted at least in the paramutual pool
Speaker 1: what would have been six hundred nine thousand dollars worth
Speaker 1: of winnings. However, uh, there was some fine prints somewhere,
Speaker 1: and we'll get to the bottom of where that fine
Speaker 1: print might have been. He ends up getting capped at
Speaker 1: thirty five thousand dollars and so uh I tracked him down,
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen kind enough to join us, and we'll
Speaker 1: bring him in right now. Uh. Dr Friedlander, thank you
Speaker 1: for coming. Are you in the middle? Are you in
Speaker 1: between surgeries this morning? Is that what I understand? Hey,
Speaker 1: good morning, go well, I'm on my way to do
Speaker 1: some eye surgery up. Okay, I keep the job. You know, yeah,
Speaker 1: I do. I know. Well obviously now you do that,
Speaker 1: and I think that's the difference, right, six nine thousand
Speaker 1: is life changing money. Thirty five thousand not so much. Um,
Speaker 1: So let's start at the let's start at the beginning.
Speaker 1: First of all, how often do you bet horses specifically? Well,
Speaker 1: I do. I do bet sports. Uh, I think fairly frequently,
Speaker 1: but horses, you know, probably once a year, maybe on
Speaker 1: the first Saturday in May, maybe on the you on
Speaker 1: the first Saturday May. So tell me that. Okay, so
Speaker 1: it was a guy who bets horses maybe once a year,
Speaker 1: on the first Saturday, maybe the Derby. How did you
Speaker 1: arrive at your handicap? Ah? Well, uh, so I have
Speaker 1: a friend that that sends me um just their handicap,
Speaker 1: you know, once a year, and it's very interesting and
Speaker 1: they usually with dramatically. And uh this year they had
Speaker 1: a country house as one of the potential um, you know,
Speaker 1: exotic plays. So I saw that and it's stuck in
Speaker 1: my mind. Um, my fiancee's name is House. And I thought, okay,
Speaker 1: that horse. Uh put that horse on the ticket and
Speaker 1: uh and I liked, like the eight horse tasks this
Speaker 1: um and we put put two other horses on my ticket,
Speaker 1: and I did a four horse exact box and four
Speaker 1: horse trifact to box with the same four horses. Yeah,
Speaker 1: let's list them right here if we do have that
Speaker 1: on the screen here at Visa dot com, the Visa
Speaker 1: and a half, Fobo TV, S League TV, and of
Speaker 1: course on Game Plus as well. So it was six
Speaker 1: hundred dollars on the number eight horse tacitus, uh show
Speaker 1: bet to win place or show hundred dollar exact box
Speaker 1: on the Tacitus, the eight horse thirteen number thirteen, Code
Speaker 1: of Honor, number sixteen, game Winner, number twenty country House,
Speaker 1: then the one dollar trifecta box on those same four
Speaker 1: horses Tacitus, Code of Honor, Game Winner, and country House.
Speaker 1: So the forty dollars we transcribed it in properly there,
Speaker 1: Sorry about that, So forty dollar try faed right? So, um,
Speaker 1: the total outlay for you was how much? Then? Here
Speaker 1: I think about okay, So, and did you say you
Speaker 1: went into so take me how you decided which book
Speaker 1: to go to? Sure? Sure? So you know. Um, I
Speaker 1: live in the south part of Reno and my son
Speaker 1: was running in a high school track meet down in
Speaker 1: Carson City farther south, and so I was on my
Speaker 1: way to the track meet, and um, that was the
Speaker 1: closest book. It was. On the way was a William
Speaker 1: Hill at a at the Tamarack Junction, which is a
Speaker 1: small um slot machine oriented casino that has a has
Speaker 1: the William Hill sports book there, and so I went
Speaker 1: in there and I made the bets, and I, you know,
Speaker 1: I was in a hurry to get to the track meet,
Speaker 1: so I just went in, made the bets and left,
Speaker 1: went to the track meet, came home, watched the race.
Speaker 1: I thought I had lost, you know, all my tickets
Speaker 1: given the initial outcome, and then when they threw the
Speaker 1: inquiry sign up, UM, I had to sort of do
Speaker 1: a double take. I didn't really know what the rules were,
Speaker 1: if the horse I was gonna be disqualified one place
Speaker 1: or or more. Uh, And then I realized that he
Speaker 1: was going to be off the board. That I had
Speaker 1: the number two and three horses on my exact ticket.
Speaker 1: So once they once they disqualify maximum security and who
Speaker 1: had won the exact I didn't quite know how much
Speaker 1: until they flashed the winnings on there and it said
Speaker 1: the three thousand nine dollars for a two dollar ticket
Speaker 1: and of course I had a hundred dollar ticket. Uh,
Speaker 1: so that was pretty exciting. And then uh, I looked
Speaker 1: a little bit to the right missile to trifect the numbers,
Speaker 1: and that one I had to do a double take
Speaker 1: on because, um, you know, you don't expect to hit that,
Speaker 1: And um, sure enough the eight horse was now in
Speaker 1: third place, and I hit the trifect as well, and
Speaker 1: that paid something like eleven thousand, five hundred for a
Speaker 1: dollar and I had forty dollars on it. So yeah,
Speaker 1: it was. There was a couple of hours there where
Speaker 1: you know, I was on cloud nine, on cloud nine,
Speaker 1: So those couple of hours and then again we're talking
Speaker 1: to Dr Steve Friedlander, who made uh the wagers that
Speaker 1: we are just talking about at a William Hill book
Speaker 1: there and reno all the circumstances that he's just laying out.
Speaker 1: So two hours later you go back. Is that when
Speaker 1: you went back and you're like, I think I want
Speaker 1: a lot of money here. Yeah, so I went in.
Speaker 1: I and you know, one of the one of the
Speaker 1: things I was struggling with on my drive down back
Speaker 1: down to the book was how much do I tip
Speaker 1: the book writer here? You know? The direction, Um, because
Speaker 1: I don't know what the guidelines are for that. And um,
Speaker 1: so I go in and I see the guy. I go, hey,
Speaker 1: you're the one that sold me these tickets. He's like yeah.
Speaker 1: I said, well they hit and he said really. I
Speaker 1: said yeah, I think it's a lot of money. And
Speaker 1: he said how much and I said I think it's
Speaker 1: over six And he said, we don't have that kind
Speaker 1: of money here and I said, well, I didn't think
Speaker 1: he did. I wasn't expecting to walk out with cash
Speaker 1: from this book. Um. But then he got the more
Speaker 1: senior writer who looked at my tickets and said, oh,
Speaker 1: we have you know, he said, we have caps on
Speaker 1: these and he pointed to this eight by ten placard
Speaker 1: that was on the exact opposite end of the counter
Speaker 1: from where I made my bets that morning. And you know,
Speaker 1: it says we're not a paramutual location. And then if
Speaker 1: you turn it on the back, it has, you know,
Speaker 1: a bunch of fine print that says they're they're exact.
Speaker 1: The payouts are capped at at one and trifecta cap
Speaker 1: cap was one. So that's where the came from. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so the the odds are capped, not the payout, but
Speaker 1: the odds are capped. So the previous segment, Dr freed Lander,
Speaker 1: I was making the case and just sort of in
Speaker 1: the run up to to talking with you where I
Speaker 1: believe you know one, you've just said the placards on
Speaker 1: the other end from where you made the bet. The
Speaker 1: actual black and white fine print is on the back
Speaker 1: of something. So I'm guessing part of your contention is
Speaker 1: the fact that it was not uh that accessible to you,
Speaker 1: was not obvious. I also contend, and I'm curious, Okay,
Speaker 1: go ahead, I'm sorry, it's not it wasn't conspicuous. Wasn't conspicuous.
Speaker 1: So I also contend that that gentleman that you that
Speaker 1: took your bet, that there was an obligation. This is
Speaker 1: just my my opinion. Tell me if you agree here
Speaker 1: there was an obligation on his part, if he cares
Speaker 1: about his job, right, if he's doing his job, that
Speaker 1: he understands the bets that you're making and knowing right,
Speaker 1: he ought to know what that record saying, He ought
Speaker 1: to know what the fine print is on the back
Speaker 1: of that sheet, and he ought to say to you
Speaker 1: at that point, hey, just so you know, here are
Speaker 1: where these odds were not in a paramutual pool, so
Speaker 1: our odds are capped at at this and that, and
Speaker 1: so therefore you should either bet less or hey, we
Speaker 1: have these other William Hill properties where we are in
Speaker 1: the paramutual pool. Maybe you should head on over there.
Speaker 1: Does that stick in your crowd? All? Oh? Absolutely? Yeah?
Speaker 1: And and you know some of the irony is is
Speaker 1: that if my son's track would have been on the
Speaker 1: north side of town like it like it was just
Speaker 1: last Saturday, I would have gone into the Grand Sierra
Speaker 1: and bet at the William Hill there, which is a
Speaker 1: paramutual location. And then you know, probably wouldn't be on
Speaker 1: your show right now, just just the vagaries of that.
Speaker 1: Just when your son's tracked me was so, what is so?
Speaker 1: I guess Dr Freedlander. Then you know, the question becomes,
Speaker 1: what are you going to do now? How are you
Speaker 1: pursuing this? Um? Well, so, you know, I think that
Speaker 1: it's important given the you know how sports betting is
Speaker 1: sort of slowly taking over the nation. We had two
Speaker 1: states legalized in the last week, and more and more
Speaker 1: coming online, and there's gonna be more and more new
Speaker 1: betters that are going to be walking into sports parlors
Speaker 1: and they just need to know, you know, the rules
Speaker 1: and the regulations need to be clear. I would hate
Speaker 1: for something like this to happen to somebody else. So, UM,
Speaker 1: I I'm happy. I'm glad, you know, allow me to
Speaker 1: say that and sort of get that word out. I
Speaker 1: think that's important as far as myself, I'm you know,
Speaker 1: I'm pursuing to see whatever the Nevada Gaming Control Board
Speaker 1: has to say about this, um, and they make a
Speaker 1: determination within forty five days, and then you know, it's
Speaker 1: a it's a process after that. But um, you know,
Speaker 1: I think I think the chances of me collecting uh
Speaker 1: this total amount are greater than me hitting the trifecta
Speaker 1: on the Preakness, but not much. Well, you know, you
Speaker 1: know what, I'm not so sure. By the way, I'm
Speaker 1: not so sure because because you know, a lot of
Speaker 1: people sort of flippantly say, oh, gaming is never gonna
Speaker 1: back you. Actually gaming backs the better more than people think.
Speaker 1: And I, first of all, I think you're right. Your
Speaker 1: chances of getting this are better than you're hitting the
Speaker 1: trifect on the Preakness, that's for sure. But you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure this doesn't go your way. But
Speaker 1: I really do appreciate your first point, which is why I,
Speaker 1: more than just hearing your specific story, wanted to have
Speaker 1: you on uh. This story, by the way, first reported
Speaker 1: by the Action Network. Let me give credit to where
Speaker 1: it is due here. Um, you you make the better point,
Speaker 1: which is for me, all of these situations come down to.
Speaker 1: For me, it is now post legalization that is the
Speaker 1: biggest point to all of this and in this new uh,
Speaker 1: in this new reality. You're absolutely right like these shenanigans,
Speaker 1: I'll use that, that's my word, right, but these kinds
Speaker 1: of gray areas have to go away, and that's really
Speaker 1: at the core of all of this, isn't it. I
Speaker 1: think we lost Dr Freeland. Either that or my words
Speaker 1: were still pathetic. Yeah, yeah, go ahead, Yes, there, go ahead. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, they'll go please, I did I cut out
Speaker 1: just for a second. Oh no, I'm what I'm saying
Speaker 1: is beyond your specific point. I think you're your broader
Speaker 1: point for me is why I wanted you on here,
Speaker 1: which is it's this is post legalization. Right. This is
Speaker 1: a year almost to the day of the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: overturning or ruling PASPA unconstitutional. We can't have this anymore.
Speaker 1: We just can't, right right, So book like William Hill.
Speaker 1: William Hill wants to be America's sports book, you know,
Speaker 1: and I and and people are gonna have choices where
Speaker 1: they place their bets. Yeah, well listen, I mean here's
Speaker 1: the other thing about this. I just want to throw
Speaker 1: in something else to the mix. And Marco you you
Speaker 1: can tell me as a longtime horse player, and I'll
Speaker 1: throw this in as well. Dr Freedlander. And this is
Speaker 1: kind of neither here nor there, but it's also part
Speaker 1: of the mix. Is I don't want to leave any
Speaker 1: detail out. William Hill UK rose to prominence based on
Speaker 1: horse racing specifically, So that's another thing that I would
Speaker 1: throw in here, Like if you go to way William
Speaker 1: Hill book, and if it's not necessarily uh conspicuously to
Speaker 1: use the doctor's word, conspicuously shown the rules, you know,
Speaker 1: because you go into that book thinking well, they're they're
Speaker 1: the horse racing company. Some people might come in there
Speaker 1: thinking well, obviously this is gonna work out. It's William Hill,
Speaker 1: for God's six. They they you know, they came to
Speaker 1: prominence on this. That's another thing in to here where
Speaker 1: I'm like, you've got to be able to trust the
Speaker 1: people you're betting with. Yeah, for a day like the
Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, which and nothing against Mr Freelander, but these
Speaker 1: are people, like he says, he bets once a year
Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby, and I talked to you all every
Speaker 1: year when we do it. You asked me why I
Speaker 1: think there's so much money in the Kentucky Derby is
Speaker 1: because there's so much recreational money put into what's the
Speaker 1: term you used to dead money? There you go, you know,
Speaker 1: But for the for the sharp guys, we we want
Speaker 1: everybody doing that because we want to take the slice.
Speaker 1: But for them not to say, you know, it's you know,
Speaker 1: I don't want to use the word amateur. But I
Speaker 1: always talked to you about going to del mar An
Speaker 1: opening day. It's an event. It's also a nightmare for
Speaker 1: people that actually bet because half the races you get
Speaker 1: shut out. The lines are so long. People don't know
Speaker 1: what they're doing. They're doing all they should be telling
Speaker 1: people coming up you. You do understand we're non paramutual.
Speaker 1: Just it should be right at the windows. That's the
Speaker 1: that's the case. The only case that I feel that
Speaker 1: you can make is that they should have it, especially
Speaker 1: on a day like the Kentucky Derby. And I'll and
Speaker 1: I'll say what I said in the previous seven case
Speaker 1: people missed it, just contrasting it with the place like
Speaker 1: the South Point. Not to not to crow bar them
Speaker 1: into this, but those those ticket writers, they go away
Speaker 1: after a while from here and it's just not tolerated
Speaker 1: right that this the job is done lovingly, So Dr Freedlander,
Speaker 1: because I know you've got to get to your surgery
Speaker 1: here and I do appreciate you coming on the show.
Speaker 1: By the way, I don't know how active you are
Speaker 1: on Twitter, but your Twitter is your Twitter handle is
Speaker 1: at the Reno doc People should know Dr Freedlander is
Speaker 1: an off themologist there in Reno. So you did you
Speaker 1: do this once a year? Um, I'm guessing you're not
Speaker 1: going to bet the Preakness. If you are, I'm sure
Speaker 1: everybody wants to hear what horses you're picking for goodness sake,
Speaker 1: right right, Yeah, we're gonna keep those goes close to
Speaker 1: the vest right now. Okay, Yeah, look at Dr I's like, no,
Speaker 1: I can't tell you that information, you can't give you that,
Speaker 1: you can't give you that you know on one other point,
Speaker 1: if if just have another minute, is Liz, uh, you
Speaker 1: know when you look at when you look at this
Speaker 1: five one cap on this trifect to pay out, if
Speaker 1: you look at the last twenty five years of Kentucky
Speaker 1: Derby trifecta payouts, that cap has exceeded in nineteen of
Speaker 1: those twenty five years, and sometimes by quite a bit.
Speaker 1: I think in two thousand five it was a six
Speaker 1: figure payout, hundred twenty three dollars for a dollar. Imagine
Speaker 1: if you are a guy in Iowa, Indiana, and you
Speaker 1: go and you place a one dollar trifecta bed and
Speaker 1: then you think you've won a hundred and twenty thousand
Speaker 1: dollars and they pay you five hundred. Oh my good.
Speaker 1: That is criminal to me. Yeah, it's criminal, you know.
Speaker 1: And I don't know where these odds come from and
Speaker 1: how they are allowed to to set them there, stealing
Speaker 1: expected value out of the pool, just stealing. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: let that rest right there on those words. Dr Freedlander,
Speaker 1: Thank you. Uh. We're going to see how this goes
Speaker 1: for you, and I'd love to have you on either
Speaker 1: way when this finally gets decided for you. Thanks Jill.
Speaker 1: Dr Dr Steve Freedlander from Reno, Nevada, tracked him down.
Speaker 1: That's what I do the rest of the day. I
Speaker 1: just tracked down people. It's part of my job. I
Speaker 1: think I appreciate him coming on. He has by the way,
Speaker 1: he's kind enough because he's got surgery days like well,
Speaker 1: let me, let me try to squeeze. And so he's
Speaker 1: on his way. So somebody after that, I hope he's
Speaker 1: not too riled up, is going to have him working
Speaker 1: on their eyes. So we, uh we hope that goes well.
Speaker 1: I called him dead money. I am not getting my
Speaker 1: eyes done there exactly. You know what you actually you
Speaker 1: you uh, you held back on that. It's not what
Speaker 1: you used to call Do you remember what you used
Speaker 1: to call it. It wasn't dead money. It was another
Speaker 1: D word. It's called dumb money. Yeah, okay, same thing,
Speaker 1: all right. Um, so that's fascinating, Bill. I want to
Speaker 1: get your thoughts on this. Can we let's do a braake.
Speaker 1: Let's get your thoughts on, Bill Crackerburg. I'm sure with
Speaker 1: much to set here on a numbers game right here
Speaker 1: at VESA back to a numbers game with your host
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Back on numbers game right here at Veson
Speaker 1: has my Brooks Kept update going Jeff we' in a
Speaker 1: co tie or rather tied for the lead rather co
Speaker 1: leader Kept Fleetwood four under look list three under and
Speaker 1: Kept could just make this easy for all of us,
Speaker 1: Just just run it. Just roll only bet I made
Speaker 1: beforehand because he's Brooks Kepta. By the way, we will
Speaker 1: never see I got it close to eleven and one.
Speaker 1: I think there were twelve or thirteen ones out there
Speaker 1: at one point closed at six to one. Keptco wins
Speaker 1: this tournament. We're never seeing double digits on kept cover
Speaker 1: again ever again. People chiming in on Twitter at beating
Speaker 1: the book always appreciate it. I'll try to uh to
Speaker 1: cherry pick some here, Paul Zim. I don't disagree with
Speaker 1: you Gil about apathetic ticket writers and supervisors, but as
Speaker 1: someone who prides himself on the details with his customers,
Speaker 1: I appreciate that you did not lump all of us together.
Speaker 1: Nevada books in general need to increase the customer service
Speaker 1: at the book level. Could not agree more with that.
Speaker 1: Um exactly how many bogus calls of the sharks need
Speaker 1: to win the cup still like carry over from our
Speaker 1: shark stock earlier. Um, let's see here's one right here, Gil.
Speaker 1: This is from Billy mc vegas. Gill as big as
Speaker 1: Will Hill is. Wouldn't it just be easier to pay
Speaker 1: this man his money? Send this to you, Marco. The
Speaker 1: bad publicity alone seems like it would hurt them more
Speaker 1: than the payout. They're not going to pay that out
Speaker 1: in the big question is why does Will Hill not
Speaker 1: half paramutual if they're taking bets paramutul They do it
Speaker 1: at many of their books, right. There's no risk for them.
Speaker 1: It's all profit. It's set profit. Like people that don't
Speaker 1: understand racing when they see long shots win, they go,
Speaker 1: oh my god, the track got killed. No, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: They get a set percentage of the handle, and people
Speaker 1: that take Paramutual off track get a set percentage of
Speaker 1: their handle. It's a pure profit, no risk. This is
Speaker 1: a risk, and that's why they put caps on it
Speaker 1: because it's lottery tickets. This is bigger than those you know,
Speaker 1: ten team two dollar parlays that people you know hit
Speaker 1: and they post the tickets and how big it is.
Speaker 1: They know those guys over time are gonna bet in
Speaker 1: the horse racing world, They're not gonna make up a
Speaker 1: hit like that when somebody hits a lottery ticket. Billy,
Speaker 1: you've been patient. No marks right there too, because the
Speaker 1: money already the track doesn't lose, it's taken out of
Speaker 1: the pools. A matter of fact, some people know from
Speaker 1: my writing and gaming today, and there's just to me
Speaker 1: being on this show, Um, I'm against horse racing. I
Speaker 1: think it's a sucker bet their ticket of least exotic
Speaker 1: and dry effect this, you know, And and it's instant
Speaker 1: gratification people want. They love going every twelve minutes, every
Speaker 1: two minutes, every thirty minutes, we're out of track. So um,
Speaker 1: it's so hard to overcome up to ten times more
Speaker 1: than a sports betting. It's just I don't like. Really,
Speaker 1: I didn't even met the Derby, but now I will
Speaker 1: time to time butt the Derby or a big race
Speaker 1: or something. But maybe a name or a color of
Speaker 1: something or horse, you know, But generally speaking, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't bet horse racing, and I think it's if
Speaker 1: you're not on the inside, you're on the outside. So
Speaker 1: there is a select few, a very small minority. Listen,
Speaker 1: we've all get horse race tips and um, you know,
Speaker 1: my whole life, I've been losing a horse race tips.
Speaker 1: Who hasn't done that? Yeah, I mean listen, every single trainer,
Speaker 1: every single owner, every single inside person thinks their horse
Speaker 1: has a shot without thinking of the other horses in
Speaker 1: the race that also were giving out tips to their
Speaker 1: family and friends also. So how do you think this
Speaker 1: goes for Dr Freed later? He's got no shot to
Speaker 1: get paid? No, no, I say zero. Yeah, you're you're
Speaker 1: you're fighting up up all battle. There was a plaquard.
Speaker 1: There's surprisingly I'm gonna not not that I'm sticking up
Speaker 1: for will Hill trust me because they deserve it for
Speaker 1: a lot of other reasons. But listen, there was a
Speaker 1: plaquard there. I know the off shore world they do CAP.
Speaker 1: Each track is CAP does an A, B, C, DE
Speaker 1: R E. Listening of a track A being like the
Speaker 1: big like Belmont and del Mars, and uh you know
Speaker 1: D or C or C or D being like Louisiana
Speaker 1: Downs or even a smaller little track loss Alomdos or
Speaker 1: something small. Um surprisedly, I know those games, right, I know,
Speaker 1: but very impressed, so so uh there is a cap
Speaker 1: on each one, and and you know that there's a
Speaker 1: cap for a reason, because, let's just face it, maybe
Speaker 1: these people are maybe people here are here this for
Speaker 1: the first time. It's really easy to manipulate these smaller
Speaker 1: race tracks. So Bill Krackerburger goes into the racetrack and
Speaker 1: I bet the two to one shot, you know, um opposite,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I bet all the long shots, uh to win,
Speaker 1: you know, for which is going to change the odds
Speaker 1: bucks for runde bucks or a horse. And now the
Speaker 1: two to one shot goes to tend the one because
Speaker 1: I just manipulated the field. But now I'm going to
Speaker 1: bet into us something that's nonpower mutual, that doesn't go
Speaker 1: into the pool. And now I'm actually betting a lot
Speaker 1: of money at that place, um or even off shore
Speaker 1: that takes things that that takes bets. So it's easily
Speaker 1: easily to be it's easy to be manipulated. So you said,
Speaker 1: no shot on this? How much what would add you
Speaker 1: give me on? Yes, there is a shot because I'm
Speaker 1: taking because you know, what my reaction initially was was
Speaker 1: no shot. That was my reaction initially. I don't know,
Speaker 1: would you remember that thing that happened. And I know
Speaker 1: this was a New Jersey and it's a different jurisdiction.
Speaker 1: What was the was there an in game on a
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos game? You remember that, Jeff, and we were
Speaker 1: all like, oh, there's no way this guy is getting
Speaker 1: it because us J ruled for him. Yeah, there a
Speaker 1: new jurisdiction though there it's a little bit different. No, Listen,
Speaker 1: no one's been more critical of Nevada Gaming than I have.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, listen, if this let me just throw
Speaker 1: this show into the mix two, if if we're going
Speaker 1: to display the power of what this can do, I
Speaker 1: think there's a shot. I do. I think he has
Speaker 1: a somewhat Listen, I get it by the letter you're saying,
Speaker 1: there's a placard over there. There's a little fine print
Speaker 1: behind this thing. But you got like, Nevada, get with it.
Speaker 1: You can't let this happen. Now. Remember my my NFL
Speaker 1: Draft prop caper last year. That's when they were just
Speaker 1: that's on the sports side different. That was just pure thievery.
Speaker 1: And if you weren't kill Alexander, you would still have
Speaker 1: not you wouldn't have been paid your listeners wouldn't have
Speaker 1: been paid. And that's said, we have a company like
Speaker 1: that here in Nevada. That's uh and and actually nationwide
Speaker 1: now that they kind of think they're bigger, they're like
Speaker 1: above the law. They're they're they're on above the law.
Speaker 1: They think that anyway. So um, that's that's a sad thing. Um, Marco,
Speaker 1: you think no shot too, though I think there's there's
Speaker 1: no shot. And the other thing, it's the response. It's
Speaker 1: the responsibility of the person placing the bed. If you
Speaker 1: go to any track, okay, even if you go here South.
Speaker 1: If I go up to the window and I tell
Speaker 1: them I want one to three boxed and punches one
Speaker 1: to four and I walk away from the window without
Speaker 1: checking my tickets, there's nothing I can do about it.
Speaker 1: Every day all over town too. It's the responsibility. And
Speaker 1: no matter where they had it, if it was somewhere there,
Speaker 1: do I think they should have had it right at
Speaker 1: the window, taped right there when you're looking down at
Speaker 1: the very board point excellent point, that's where they should
Speaker 1: have it. Non paramutual, have a plaque. That's the point, right, Marco, Like, okay,
Speaker 1: it's posted. But according to Dr Friedlander and this is
Speaker 1: the case he'll make with gaming. Oh yeah, it's posted.
Speaker 1: It's posted where I would never look. But AT's the point.
Speaker 1: It's a shame he can't use the offshore world because
Speaker 1: the big sports books off shore, like Chris uh, they
Speaker 1: book horses obviously, and they book them in house, and
Speaker 1: they pay out track percentage of the track numbers up
Speaker 1: until a certain point. Also there however, for big races
Speaker 1: like that, like the Bellmont, like k Lucky Derby, as
Speaker 1: far as I know, they give you a track ods,
Speaker 1: so they're gonna pay it. They're not gonna so for
Speaker 1: a copy, and like will Hill to do this, it
Speaker 1: actually was probably better off of them paying than getting
Speaker 1: the bad press, because really you shouldn't be patronizing a
Speaker 1: casino or sports book that that does have this rule
Speaker 1: and effect. It's why I'm doing the show. I'mill make
Speaker 1: them pay. That's serious. I hope you do. Here's another
Speaker 1: one right here, Marco, you help me out or bill
Speaker 1: either one of you from that Pepsi guy on Twitter.
Speaker 1: I'm not a horse player. Uh so sorry if it's
Speaker 1: common knowledge, But with a non paramutual book, do those
Speaker 1: books post the win amount with those caps on it?
Speaker 1: Um no, probably not no, No, not at all. Um Again,
Speaker 1: it's the odds that are capped, not not a maximum payout.
Speaker 1: Back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Not only do we have the second leg of the
Speaker 1: Triple Crowd, of course, but we have golf second major
Speaker 1: of the year going on right now, early first round.
Speaker 1: Let's get back to Preakness before we get your more
Speaker 1: specific bets. Uh. The aforementioned Chris Felika, Uh, friend of
Speaker 1: the show The Glue that keeps ESPNS College Game Day together,
Speaker 1: also on Daily Wager, also half of the Stanford Steve
Speaker 1: in the Bear podcast. He has a question for everybody.
Speaker 1: In the last six years, ten of the eighteen horses
Speaker 1: to complete the trifecta were at least nine to one,
Speaker 1: and six were at least fifteen to one. Give us
Speaker 1: the double digit priced horse on the morning line most
Speaker 1: likely to hit the board. Well, I've already you've already
Speaker 1: given it, Yeah, Bourbon wore. The other long shot that
Speaker 1: I like is owen Dale. Owen Dale would be the
Speaker 1: other one, Peter, I'm gonna go with Warriors Charge for that. Honor.
Speaker 1: I think he's got a chance, a real chance to
Speaker 1: be the best of speed here, and sometimes in racing,
Speaker 1: that's that's, that's all it takes, not just to hit
Speaker 1: the board, but potentially to win the race. I'm very
Speaker 1: it was very, very impressed by this horse's last race.
Speaker 1: I was there that day at Oaklawn and it came
Speaker 1: back very nice on the clock. And I'm a big
Speaker 1: Warriors Charge fan. I can't wait to see what he's
Speaker 1: got in the tank on Saturday. Flatterman, same question. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with owen Dale. I know he's been mentioned,
Speaker 1: but I think that the whole idea that uh, you know,
Speaker 1: if Warriors Charges not a rabbit in the field to
Speaker 1: be a rabbit, he could still run like a rabbit.
Speaker 1: And if he helps set the pace out front, uh
Speaker 1: with market King, and you start seeing twenty two and
Speaker 1: forty four fly up on the board, then somebody's going
Speaker 1: to come from behind and win it. Owen Dale did
Speaker 1: win the Lexington Stakes. Talking to Brad Cox a little
Speaker 1: while ago down here, he tells me that owen Dale really,
Speaker 1: uh you know, he's he's suffered some wide trips and
Speaker 1: one despite that at the Lexington Stakes thinks he's coming
Speaker 1: into his own. They regrouped with the horse during the
Speaker 1: middle of the campaign when they were trying to get
Speaker 1: him to the Kentucky Derby. They kind of started from scratch,
Speaker 1: and things look like they're going forward with him, and
Speaker 1: so I don't know that he'll be tend to one.
Speaker 1: I think there could be a little bit more steam
Speaker 1: on him and could a lower but at least right now,
Speaker 1: tend to one both on the morning line and at
Speaker 1: the West Gate. Uh would be my would be my
Speaker 1: long shot play. All right, Marco D'Angelo, tell me how
Speaker 1: you've been this thing. Well, I'm gonna key off three
Speaker 1: horses on the top. I'm gonna use Bourbon War, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna have Improbable in case, you know, we get the
Speaker 1: dry track, and that was the excuse, and then i'm
Speaker 1: gonna have Owendel. Those are the three horses I'm keying off,
Speaker 1: and then I'll put other horses, you know, and anybody
Speaker 1: can run in that third spot, so I'll have probably
Speaker 1: a little deeper run to the third spot. But that's
Speaker 1: where we're going, and I think it's gonna be an
Speaker 1: evenly bet race where you're gonna be able to get
Speaker 1: good payouts here. I would think so. By the way,
Speaker 1: I've never seen you and I have been together for
Speaker 1: many Derby's many I mean the least five or six
Speaker 1: at this point. Never seen you so subdued during a derby.
Speaker 1: Is this point never seen you said? Now. There have
Speaker 1: been ones where I you I literally look over at
Speaker 1: you and I'm like, someone, get Marco professional help immediately.
Speaker 1: But this one you were just and I guess you
Speaker 1: could see it in improbables run where you just felt
Speaker 1: like that horse was not going to break out of
Speaker 1: that of that pack. It was more that, as I
Speaker 1: said on all the shows, my disclaimer was, if Maximum
Speaker 1: Security is a real horse, which we're gonna find out
Speaker 1: on Saturday, it's going to leave a bruise on Marco
Speaker 1: because I wasn't a believer. I am now, but I
Speaker 1: wasn't then. I love when you refer to yourself in
Speaker 1: the third person. That's like my favorite thing ever. Peter,
Speaker 1: how you doing this one? I am going to try
Speaker 1: to take of you against the derby horses, potentially a
Speaker 1: move that that's dangerous, but I just think value for
Speaker 1: money wise, there's a world in which this is one
Speaker 1: of these exception Derby's where you're not going to see
Speaker 1: those horses necessarily come back and run. Well. I think
Speaker 1: there's a world in which you can take kind of
Speaker 1: a dim view of the form in the Derby, given
Speaker 1: how many horses were clustered around the wire at the end,
Speaker 1: and there's just a lot of exciting horses. We've talked
Speaker 1: about them again and again. I mean owen Dale Warriors
Speaker 1: charge Bourbon war I could see your exact coming from
Speaker 1: that group. And that's how I'm gonna play it. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna do. It'll be a it'll it'll be a nice score,
Speaker 1: or it'll be go home for me. And you know,
Speaker 1: I think if the risk reward makes that a smart
Speaker 1: strategy this year. All right, Ron from Baltimore, right there
Speaker 1: on the scene. What you got? Yeah. By the way, Marco,
Speaker 1: I know you were here when Survivor won the very
Speaker 1: first Freakness by ten lengths back in eight I know
Speaker 1: you were telling my grandfather, the late Jedediah Flatter, that
Speaker 1: that was the horst Bus. So I would really be
Speaker 1: remiss and ignoring what you're saying, but I'm going to
Speaker 1: go ahead and do so. And mentioned a horse that
Speaker 1: we haven't mentioned yet, but it's certainly getting a lot
Speaker 1: of talk here in Baltimore. And that is Always Mining,
Speaker 1: the number seven horse trained by Kelly Ruby, trying to
Speaker 1: become the first woman to train a Preakness winner in
Speaker 1: the four year history of the game of the race.
Speaker 1: That is eight to one morning line at at the Westgate.
Speaker 1: All Always Mining has done is when six races in
Speaker 1: a row, all here in Maryland, granted not amongst the company,
Speaker 1: that is as good as the Preakness? Or is it
Speaker 1: because we don't have the top three Derby horses here,
Speaker 1: No horse from the Derby that hit the board in
Speaker 1: this race. That's the first time we've said that's this
Speaker 1: nineteen fifty one. New shooters have only one four times
Speaker 1: since four in this race, but they hit the board
Speaker 1: most years if they don't necessarily win it. And by
Speaker 1: the way, two years ago, Cloud Computing was a new
Speaker 1: shooter that won the race. So I'm going to key
Speaker 1: off of War of Will. I think he's he may
Speaker 1: be the most athletic horse in the race. You're gonna
Speaker 1: be It's gonna be a short price, but I think
Speaker 1: he's going to be there. So I'll put him and
Speaker 1: Always Binding on top I'm not going to throw out
Speaker 1: Improbable completely, but I really wonder if he can get
Speaker 1: the distance. That's the big question on him. And then
Speaker 1: I'm going to throw in, as I mentioned before, Owen Dale,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna throw in Bourbon War and uh, we'll
Speaker 1: see what happens from there on the exotics. Alright, Ron,
Speaker 1: appreciate you coming on this morning. I know you just
Speaker 1: flew into Baltimore, so thank you for changing your shirt. Man,
Speaker 1: Thank you. Yeah, and I'm glad you were able to
Speaker 1: see it with the fine technolog even we were able
Speaker 1: to deploy here fifteen pounds of extra equipment and my bag.
Speaker 1: But I think I'm gonna throw off the rooftop here
Speaker 1: at the old hill Top. Everybody, everybody who had Flatter
Speaker 1: at minus five thousand to make a technology gripe. Everyone
Speaker 1: cash is thank you. Oh by the way, Ron Flatter
Speaker 1: Racing Pod with an emal Ulo, Dave Tooley, h We
Speaker 1: got Patrick McGuigan and Johnny Avello. It is up and
Speaker 1: running right now. Serious hand handicappers can listen to opinions
Speaker 1: pluses minuses on all thirteen horses Visa dot Com, slash
Speaker 1: podcast plus iTunes, Apple, Google, Stitcher, and Gills toaster. There
Speaker 1: it is Rod Flatter everybody Thron Flatter Racing Pod available.
Speaker 1: All podcasts are distributed. Thank you Ron, Thank you. Peter
Speaker 1: Ford tal appreciate it. Peter as always always back for
Speaker 1: the Belmont Okay, love it. Josh Cowers is here though,
Speaker 1: he's here to talk baseball with us. Yesterday you texted
Speaker 1: me out of the blue because you're angry about baseball.
Speaker 1: What's the story? Have you watched it? I have. It's
Speaker 1: just a terrible product of what used to be a
Speaker 1: good game. Is your anger carrying over to this morning?
Speaker 1: Is that why you're in a helmet this morning? No,
Speaker 1: not at all. Not. I mean, you know, coffee didn't
Speaker 1: kick in maybe today. Um, you just hate the quality play.
Speaker 1: What's interesting about it is that game is kicking a
Speaker 1: huge step back. Word for sure. I talk about how
Speaker 1: handicapping is more difficult baseball now than it was three
Speaker 1: or four years ago because the delution of pitching, and
Speaker 1: you countered by saying the hitting's worse. The talents of
Speaker 1: the players is definitely better, but it doesn't matter when
Speaker 1: they don't know how to use their talent. And like,
Speaker 1: let's use Canny for example, what the Angels. He's he
Speaker 1: got called up after a hundred minor league innings, right,
Speaker 1: So talent, why sure, he has the stuff. They all
Speaker 1: have the stuff to play in the big leagues, otherwise
Speaker 1: they wouldn't have been drafted. They all have the physical abilities.
Speaker 1: What could a kid have learned in a hundred twenty
Speaker 1: nine innings that's going to prepare him for the major leagues.
Speaker 1: The major leagues is not a level where you go
Speaker 1: up there and learn how to cut and relay and
Speaker 1: learn the positions you need to be in the major
Speaker 1: league level is the advanced level of your the elite
Speaker 1: of the elite, and now they're trying to in essence,
Speaker 1: teach the game of baseball at the major league level. Well,
Speaker 1: once you're there, you feel like you know everything. So
Speaker 1: when I say something pedestrian to you about a position
Speaker 1: to be in, you don't want to hear it. You're
Speaker 1: not gonna hear it. All I know, I know, I know,
Speaker 1: But you continue to get in the wrong position. So
Speaker 1: if you know, why do you continue to do the
Speaker 1: things wrong? Right? So, if you bring a guy like
Speaker 1: Handing up, let's say, and you put him in the
Speaker 1: big leagues, he's going to fail for a few years
Speaker 1: because there's a lot of things that he's never learned
Speaker 1: that he's asked to do. Now. So when I got
Speaker 1: to the major leagues, the years I spent abilagues, I
Speaker 1: learned more about the game of baseball than I thought
Speaker 1: that I ever did my whole life. Like there was
Speaker 1: things that I I just wasn't shocked at, Like, oh
Speaker 1: my god, I didn't even know this was a possibility.
Speaker 1: I didn't know that it was a completely different game.
Speaker 1: You're not playing the same game you've ever learned. You
Speaker 1: have to get in and you have to get experiences.
Speaker 1: You have to learn to fail. You have to do
Speaker 1: all kinds of different things before you're fully prepared. Now,
Speaker 1: I know we all get brought up at different times.
Speaker 1: They're rushing kids to the big leagues at such an
Speaker 1: early age these days, they're not learning the game of baseball.
Speaker 1: So we're watching the most. Like I said, pedestrian mistakes happen,
Speaker 1: things that like why did you do that? You you
Speaker 1: would know better, but they don't know better because if
Speaker 1: you go back to where they're coming from a youth baseball,
Speaker 1: the game is not being taught anymore. Right, So we're
Speaker 1: doing things to elevate the talent level, but we're doing
Speaker 1: things to not teach the guys how to play the game.
Speaker 1: So they're rushing guys to the big leagues and they're
Speaker 1: making mistakes that should never happen. I mean, I remember
Speaker 1: sitting in the big leagues when I got called up
Speaker 1: watching a game on TV. I can remember this, like,
Speaker 1: I'm there and there's a play on TV and Cal
Speaker 1: Ripken it came and stood next to me, and I
Speaker 1: thought Cal was gonna yell at me for being in
Speaker 1: side and out on the bench, and he goes, did
Speaker 1: you see that play? And I was like, yeah, I
Speaker 1: saw it. And he's like, did you see what the
Speaker 1: shortstop did? And I was like, I might have missed
Speaker 1: that one. And the shortstop didn't throw the guy out
Speaker 1: at home on the relay as the ball hit the
Speaker 1: left center field and Cal said, he goes, when the
Speaker 1: shortstop was going out for that cut, he should have
Speaker 1: looked back to see where he needed to line up.
Speaker 1: So as he's running, he's got to run and look
Speaker 1: to know exactly where he wants to be because he
Speaker 1: has to be he has to line himself up. What
Speaker 1: the outfielder is gonna do is his job is to
Speaker 1: get the ball as fast as possible and turn around
Speaker 1: and get it in as fast as possible. You got
Speaker 1: the proofield. So when I turned to throw the ball in,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick somebody up as I'm in motion, and
Speaker 1: that's where the ball is gonna end up going. If
Speaker 1: my shortstop or whoever is cutting is offline, that's where
Speaker 1: the outfitder is gonna bring the ball in the quickest
Speaker 1: way uh point eight points a straight line. Right. So
Speaker 1: if I don't get in position as a relay guy,
Speaker 1: if I'm in bad position, the outfielder turns, he might
Speaker 1: divert the throw to an angle that's no longer a
Speaker 1: straight line, so it takes a lot longer for the
Speaker 1: ball to get home. So if the shortstop in that
Speaker 1: position and that circumstance doesn't put himself in the right position,
Speaker 1: then he's failed the team. Right, So the outfiter comes up,
Speaker 1: gets the ball and sees the guy. I gotta get
Speaker 1: there early and put my hands up. I gotta give
Speaker 1: this guy to get to get to I also have
Speaker 1: to know my arm strength and his arm strength. Who
Speaker 1: deserves to have the longer throw? Do I have a
Speaker 1: stronger arm to my outfielders. My outfield have a stronger
Speaker 1: line or on than you, So I have to know
Speaker 1: where to position myself based off of that and based
Speaker 1: off of the throw that I gotta make home. Now
Speaker 1: we see middlelandfielders second basements a lot one hop short
Speaker 1: hop the catcher because they put themselves in a wrong
Speaker 1: position as far as distance to make the throw home.
Speaker 1: So they got to know that they have to back
Speaker 1: up an extra fift so when they throw it it's
Speaker 1: a nice one hop and not a short hop. Or
Speaker 1: they gotta go back further long enough to throw the
Speaker 1: ball in the air to catch it. So all these
Speaker 1: things have to factor in. Are you gonna know that
Speaker 1: instantaneously on a play like that? This is all premititate
Speaker 1: stuff that you have to spring training practice. Earlier work
Speaker 1: talked about. This is all stuff that you have to do.
Speaker 1: Why because you're a professional baseball player, you're at the
Speaker 1: advanced level, you're making millions of dollars to be lead.
Speaker 1: Anybody can go out there gil you meet, anybody can
Speaker 1: go out there and put ourselves in a wrong position
Speaker 1: and just go to the motions. They're not allowed to
Speaker 1: do that because of who and what they are. Just
Speaker 1: just tell me who the who the biggest, biggest clubs,
Speaker 1: Who are the offenders of this more than others are?
Speaker 1: Or is it just league wide and you can't it
Speaker 1: really is league wide? It really, I mean you can
Speaker 1: look at a lot of different stats and see why
Speaker 1: teams are in last place, But when you when when
Speaker 1: when guys are getting themselves in the wrong positions and
Speaker 1: guys are safe in all Like the naked eye just
Speaker 1: sees a double and a guy safe. I don't see
Speaker 1: the same game that you guys see. I see. I
Speaker 1: think I see what should have been prevented. I'm sure
Speaker 1: pictures in defense we prevent things from happening, and if
Speaker 1: we do our job. The game looks boring to people,
Speaker 1: and it's on an elite level to us, So I
Speaker 1: understand why the game can be boring to your average person.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, can I speak in my parlance? Now?
Speaker 1: Can I speak in a betting currency? Because I want
Speaker 1: to make I want to make money off this. One
Speaker 1: of the things that I do every quarter Q one,
Speaker 1: Q two, Q three during the baseball season, roughly when
Speaker 1: teams turn the forty game bend if you will, do
Speaker 1: a derivative show and it's through the prism of betting stats,
Speaker 1: and we start with the sort of the macro numbers,
Speaker 1: which are really easily accessible, and then we sort of
Speaker 1: narrow it down to five inning wagers, first inning wages,
Speaker 1: and we get more granular, and we'll do that tomorrow.
Speaker 1: But let's start with the bigger stuff now, Josh, and
Speaker 1: I'm curious your reactions to some of these, because these
Speaker 1: are the uh these are the biggest money winners. These
Speaker 1: are for betters. Now, this is an exercise. Let me
Speaker 1: just stayed upfront that we we wonder how much of
Speaker 1: this is narrative, how much of this is predictive, and
Speaker 1: these are the top money line teams in baseball just
Speaker 1: in terms of UH the units you would have won.
Speaker 1: This is a bizarro exercise that if you had bet
Speaker 1: to win a unit or risking unit, if they're a
Speaker 1: dog to win a unit, if they're a favorite on
Speaker 1: each of these teams in every single game blindly this season,
Speaker 1: you would be up the most. With the Minnesota Twins.
Speaker 1: You'd be up eleven point four three units. This courtesy
Speaker 1: of cover dot Com. UH Arizona Diamondbacks you'd be would
Speaker 1: be next. But it's a significant drop from one to two.
Speaker 1: The Twins are by far the biggest money winner for
Speaker 1: blind bedders again Bizarro exercise and baseball, Diamondbacks and Dodgers
Speaker 1: uh to three Cups and Brewers rounding out the top five.
Speaker 1: But the Twins definitely the team that stands out there.
Speaker 1: And it should be noted it's pretty even in terms
Speaker 1: of home and road for the Twins, and that shouldn't
Speaker 1: surprise anyone because the Twins are you know, are getting
Speaker 1: favorable prices and have definitely surprised a lot of people. Uh.
Speaker 1: Certainly in the betting market as well. You're into the Twins.
Speaker 1: You believe they're viable to win that division. I picked
Speaker 1: the the win division before starting alright bottom five by
Speaker 1: the way, same category again, bluntly betting these teams. The
Speaker 1: Nationals are the team that will hammered you the most
Speaker 1: money thus far this season Q one. You'd be down
Speaker 1: nearly fourteen units if you bet. If you bet the
Speaker 1: Nationals blindly this year. Marlin's right behind them at nearly
Speaker 1: thirteen always on that list, Red Sox obviously with the
Speaker 1: poor starter still on that list, third to worst Royals
Speaker 1: and A's rounding out the top five. Now, if you
Speaker 1: spritles out in home and road splits. And we have
Speaker 1: done this for folks here this is at home now
Speaker 1: the Rangers are actually thus far. Again predictive or just
Speaker 1: a narrative, or we're just talking Rangers. Best team at
Speaker 1: home for betters blind betters exercise the Astros and Dodgers,
Speaker 1: rounding out the top three. See the Brewers and Cubs
Speaker 1: also there. But the worst five at home for betters
Speaker 1: the Nationals. Most of their loss has been at home.
Speaker 1: Makes sense they tend to be bigger favorites there. The
Speaker 1: Jay's offensively challenged second worst in their home field, the
Speaker 1: Orioles at Camden third worst, The Marlins and the Yankees
Speaker 1: again a lot of big prices on the Yankees in
Speaker 1: the Bronx when we go away is again blind money
Speaker 1: line betters. When the team is on the road, the
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks are the biggest winners. The Twins get most of
Speaker 1: their winnings in road games. They were number one overall.
Speaker 1: Remember money line betters, Pirates, Orioles and Padres Orioles because
Speaker 1: they've had such big dog prices. When they do win,
Speaker 1: they cash in a way that puts them on this
Speaker 1: top five list. Bottom five, well, No surprises there, although
Speaker 1: the Astros might surprise people, but again those are prices
Speaker 1: that make them show up on this list when to
Speaker 1: do this, although there are money numbers are a little
Speaker 1: different there on the right, little error, but A's are
Speaker 1: the worst Rangers, Astros, Marlin's Royals in terms of road
Speaker 1: money line. Let's just do the run line real quick
Speaker 1: here and then we'll we'll bounce out in terms of
Speaker 1: run line, which I'd like to call a de facto
Speaker 1: power rating in terms of betting. Um, now, I'll just
Speaker 1: do it manually, Jeff Jefferson, he doesn't have the graphic.
Speaker 1: He's panicking back there in terms of the run line.
Speaker 1: So we're talking about a one and a half run
Speaker 1: spread here, Josh. So if you win, you win big.
Speaker 1: If you lose, sometimes you cash because you lose one
Speaker 1: run games. The number one team in baseball on the
Speaker 1: run line. Any guesses what they would be for betters
Speaker 1: blind run line betters this year if that were an exercise.
Speaker 1: Winning by winning by one of them. In other ways,
Speaker 1: you're a one and a half point favorite one and
Speaker 1: a half game. Excuse want a half run favorite as
Speaker 1: a favorite, you're one and a half run dog. At
Speaker 1: they dog, I would say that Tampa Bay Rays. You
Speaker 1: are correct, Sir Josh Towers everybody, Tampa Bay Rays, you'd
Speaker 1: be up ten point to five units betting on the
Speaker 1: run line again, sort of a de facto power rating
Speaker 1: on that predictive With the Rays, maybe you can make
Speaker 1: the case that the way they manipulate their bullpen maybe
Speaker 1: and their starters, maybe that there is some predictive value
Speaker 1: to that. By the way, Number two on the run
Speaker 1: line in terms of just blind bettors would be the St.
Speaker 1: Louis Cardinals up nine point to five units roughly, again
Speaker 1: courtesy of covers, and the Arizona Diamondbacks would be third,
Speaker 1: up seven units. That doesn't surprise you either, just to
Speaker 1: the start they got off of them, It's just fascinating
Speaker 1: how and then they they prolonged it. I mean they
Speaker 1: were hitting, they were pitching for a while. Uh, it
Speaker 1: kind of makes sense. I mean, just by the way
Speaker 1: they're playing, by the way, Angels third, I lied, and
Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks would be fourth and the worst. Conversely on
Speaker 1: the run line, the absolute worst would be the Miami Marlins.
Speaker 1: They'd be hemorrhaging units. You'd be down sixteen point seven
Speaker 1: five units. If you blind lee bet the Marlins on
Speaker 1: the run line. The Nationals would be third. Actually there's
Speaker 1: a team in between that would be the San Francisco
Speaker 1: Giants down fifteen units for blind bedders. On run lines.
Speaker 1: We'll come back back to a numbers game with your host,
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Van studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: I am savvy Z. By the way, we get a
Speaker 1: lot of tweets at beating the book on my Twitter skill, Alexander.
Speaker 1: Josh Towers kind enough to join us this morning on
Speaker 1: the show. Jeff Parls is here as well. Uh, and
Speaker 1: then all fair before we get into our derivatives, Josh,
Speaker 1: you you were making a point. I actually brought this
Speaker 1: up with you last week because Felix had another bad outing,
Speaker 1: and I said to you, is Felix herd as a
Speaker 1: Hall of Famers King? Felix hall of Famer? And we
Speaker 1: got into it, and the point that I was obviously
Speaker 1: making was here's a guy that most people would immediately
Speaker 1: knee jerk reaction, go, oh, sure, hall of fame. But
Speaker 1: then if you actually look at his statue, like huh
Speaker 1: uh okay, And as I said with Felix, if gets
Speaker 1: the three thousand strike as that he'd have to milk
Speaker 1: a few more years out of it to get there.
Speaker 1: That it's not a subject there at his age. I
Speaker 1: told you at his age, there's things that I feel
Speaker 1: he can do in the offseason to reset himself and
Speaker 1: actually be dominant again. And we talked about do. But yeah,
Speaker 1: his numbers are closed. He's twenty plus hunter strikeout, so
Speaker 1: he's really close at three thousand. He's still a decent age.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I was doing it with with some hitters
Speaker 1: while you were talking. I was going over some stuff.
Speaker 1: I was looking at some some hitters from the past
Speaker 1: because I wanted to see, like I cut, my attention
Speaker 1: was how many hitters are hitting three D above right now?
Speaker 1: So I went back twenty years and stuff, and I
Speaker 1: wanted to see how many players. So then I got
Speaker 1: caught up in looking at the Delgado and some other players,
Speaker 1: and I started comparing them to Hall of famers and
Speaker 1: Vladi's the name came up, Sor and I looked at
Speaker 1: his stats, and then I started comparing him to Hilton
Speaker 1: until Delgado and some other people, and Helton is a
Speaker 1: cores guy though, Yeah, and they're they're not better than
Speaker 1: most than a lot of guys that are not in
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame or people. So really what I
Speaker 1: was doing is I wanted it just the No, don't
Speaker 1: get the numbers. Just what do you think about, lady
Speaker 1: grow Oh, he's a Hall of Famer? Is the Hall
Speaker 1: of Famer because he's in there because you think he is? Oh? No, no, no,
Speaker 1: he's a Hall of Famer. That would be an initial
Speaker 1: response for somebody. And then I'll throw another name out there,
Speaker 1: Degato calls Dogado and then be like uh and then
Speaker 1: I'm like, well, his numbers are ross the board are better?
Speaker 1: Oh I didn't know that. Well, it's it's like, it's crazy.
Speaker 1: The perception that we put in our head is perception, right,
Speaker 1: and so so much of that is media driven and
Speaker 1: we don't realize that that it is at the time. Listen,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a Washington Redskins fan, a group in Washington.
Speaker 1: D c Art Monk, when he retired from the NFL,
Speaker 1: had the most catches in the history of the National
Speaker 1: Football League, and for any keen observer of three Super
Speaker 1: Bowl championships with the Redskins, he was the key. He
Speaker 1: was the one steady of that offense all the way through,
Speaker 1: took him nine years to get in the whole night
Speaker 1: when he finally got in there in two thousand eight,
Speaker 1: and I went for We gave him a four minute plus,
Speaker 1: which is an eternity, by the way, standing ovation right,
Speaker 1: And it was the way for fans to say, what
Speaker 1: the what the hell is wrong with that. It's another
Speaker 1: reason why I said you can never compare generational stats,
Speaker 1: that you cannot do it. So my my point is,
Speaker 1: you know, I was watching so I had a bet
Speaker 1: on the Mariners last night, Mariners Oakland. And it's actually
Speaker 1: it's funny you bring us up because it actually came up.
Speaker 1: At one point the broadcasters are talking about. I don't
Speaker 1: know how they got on the subject, but so let's
Speaker 1: do this exercise. Ozzie Smith, Hall of sure Fire, Hall
Speaker 1: of He's in the Hall of Fame, but sure fine,
Speaker 1: right in your opinion. I mean, I like watching a play.
Speaker 1: The only thing that comes to mind when I think
Speaker 1: Ozzie is his range in his back flipping. I would
Speaker 1: have to look at stats to be able to tell
Speaker 1: you his range and his bad flim and his back flip.
Speaker 1: So immediately though, but that's the reaction as soon as
Speaker 1: I say Ozzie Smith. Most people's gut reactions. Oh, sure,
Speaker 1: of course, basically because Ozzie Smith. He had, by the way,
Speaker 1: he had one great dramatic playoff home run at home right,
Speaker 1: um uh, and so on and so forth. And now
Speaker 1: let me just throw this outther Omar vis Scale. See
Speaker 1: I do. When I think of Omar, I think of
Speaker 1: the best club probably. Ever, how is Omar Viscale not
Speaker 1: in the Hall of Fame? But Ozzie Smith is correct?
Speaker 1: The answer to that question Meia, That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: These guys come out and they put somebody up on
Speaker 1: the TV and they say that this guy's a whole famer,
Speaker 1: and we all bite and immediately just go, yes he is.
Speaker 1: But you're right. I I have never compared those two stats,
Speaker 1: but I bet if I did, to be blown away
Speaker 1: the outmaker. He's unbelievable. He's one of the best. Ever. Yes,
Speaker 1: I just have a question on that, because I'm on
Speaker 1: record of saying Viscal and Ozzie Smith should not neither
Speaker 1: of them should be in just because of the hitting
Speaker 1: aspect of it. Yeah, but that's what I'm talking about,
Speaker 1: you know, That's what I was talking about about. Bryce
Speaker 1: Harper that guy defensively, like if he wasn't in the
Speaker 1: lineup when you're pitching, you're going in your manager's office
Speaker 1: and you're cussing him out from giving him a day
Speaker 1: off because I don't care if he goes I could catcher.
Speaker 1: I don't care if he goes over for four how
Speaker 1: valuable he is beyond the plate. That's what you need
Speaker 1: out there, and that's what you would want. This girl
Speaker 1: was the best. Now you've now you've upset Josh. Well,
Speaker 1: I did that yesterday with my pick, which Josh Josh
Speaker 1: ended up being correct on anyway, but Josh laughage. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I had as I had Seattle last night, so just
Speaker 1: about this baseball game, because I just wanted to had
Speaker 1: Mackworth state here about baseball. Five years ago you asked me,
Speaker 1: and I had this conversation with Mark Fortune on here.
Speaker 1: Five years ago you asked me, what's your favorite sport
Speaker 1: to bet on pre flop? And five years ago I
Speaker 1: would have said baseball and everything else is beyond that.
Speaker 1: It's baseball and nothing. Baseball is now one of my
Speaker 1: least favorite sports to bet pre flop, if at all,
Speaker 1: because there's so many more moving parts right starting pitchers
Speaker 1: get taken out early. Some teams, for goodness sake, start
Speaker 1: at a closer right as an opener, and so there's
Speaker 1: it's harder to model. Anyway, last night was a reminder.
Speaker 1: Now I had the Mariners last night, and even in victory,
Speaker 1: My biggest takeaway from this game last night was even
Speaker 1: a victory, right, I wanted to hug people who had
Speaker 1: the a's, and I felt like the high of winning
Speaker 1: that wasn't nearly as low as the losing must have been.
Speaker 1: And in the end, I'm like, what was I really
Speaker 1: betting on there? In the end, the Mariners were down.
Speaker 1: For First of all, let me just say this as
Speaker 1: a microcosumo baseball as it is now. There were seventeen
Speaker 1: total hits in this game and eleven runs. There were
Speaker 1: most of those on homeworks. There were seven home runs
Speaker 1: made in this game, seven home runs eleven total on
Speaker 1: seventeen total hit seven were home runs. And there were
Speaker 1: how many strikeouts in this game? A grand total of
Speaker 1: nineteen strikeouts. So there was nineteen strikeouts and seventeen hits
Speaker 1: in this game. So again, it's it's what we talked
Speaker 1: about with baseball. It's either out of the park or
Speaker 1: it's missing bats and there are no hits anymore. But anyway,
Speaker 1: the Mariners were down four to one. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you saw this, Josh, there were down four to
Speaker 1: one in the eighth and uh, Trevino, Lee Trevino, not
Speaker 1: famous golfer Lee Trevino, but Trevino was on the mound
Speaker 1: for the athletics and relief and and when our incarnacion
Speaker 1: worked it to a three to count with one man
Speaker 1: on and one out. So this was a moment in
Speaker 1: the game where it was like, all right, don't let
Speaker 1: the tying run to the plate. Uh, this was a
Speaker 1: huge pitch and Trevino throws a really solid pitch. And
Speaker 1: this again, I tell betters this all the time. Don't
Speaker 1: have confirmation bias. When you win, don't think it's you.
Speaker 1: And when you lose, um, don't think there was an
Speaker 1: excuse for it. And in victor to rebe honest about
Speaker 1: your victories. And so for me, the victory that I
Speaker 1: ended up getting all hinged on this one pitch ultimately,
Speaker 1: because Trevino threw a great strike in the lower part
Speaker 1: of the zone. K zone had it, announcers had it,
Speaker 1: everybody had it, and the umpire just looked. This was
Speaker 1: DJ Rayburn just looked at it and goes, yeah, that's
Speaker 1: a ball, and Edwin and Edwin internation goes to first
Speaker 1: base and when you know what, of course, vogel box
Speaker 1: Jack's you know, a ball into the center field just
Speaker 1: just deposits it over the center field wall to tie
Speaker 1: the game at four. By the way, the A's went
Speaker 1: up five to four in the tenth and the Mariners again,
Speaker 1: here was the thing with uh was the closer last
Speaker 1: night for the for the athletics, it was uh Joaquim Sarria.
Speaker 1: He was his pitch count was soaring, it was getting
Speaker 1: in the high thirties, and he just didn't have an
Speaker 1: out pitch, so he would get ahead O two and
Speaker 1: then you have no way of getting these guys out.
Speaker 1: And finally an amazing sequence there the bottom of the
Speaker 1: tenth again with with two out, the Mariners were down one,
Speaker 1: but it was a walk to Vogel back again to
Speaker 1: out nobody on d Gordon comes in as the pinch hitter,
Speaker 1: he steals a pinch runner, he's steal second. Then you
Speaker 1: have Santana doubling on it. You know, after having two
Speaker 1: strikes against him after an O two he worked the count,
Speaker 1: doubles down the left field line, game tied, and then
Speaker 1: narvaiased singles after an O two count to win the game.
Speaker 1: But it was just one of these. I guess the
Speaker 1: reason I pointed out is even in victory, these base
Speaker 1: but there's so many things going on in these games
Speaker 1: that to be able to harness these relief pitchers and
Speaker 1: to think that there was anything in my handicap that
Speaker 1: led to my victory would be wrong. See that's he
Speaker 1: just worked out. I have bet many games this year,
Speaker 1: and I've been on the right side of games as
Speaker 1: far as my pocket, and I never like I had
Speaker 1: the Rockies play the other day and I was saying
Speaker 1: it on air, the Rockies were the play they end
Speaker 1: up winning, no way, shape or form. Did I see
Speaker 1: that game happening like that. It was the complete opposite
Speaker 1: of what I thought was gonna happen. They just happened
Speaker 1: to win in the end. It was the way the
Speaker 1: reason I was giving you the game. No, that wasn't.
Speaker 1: It just got lucky because of how bad and how
Speaker 1: poorly it was played. Those are my rants like things
Speaker 1: like that, Those are my rants, and I don't just
Speaker 1: keep to myself when I go on Twitter because I'm
Speaker 1: watching these games, going this is this can't be happening.
Speaker 1: This can't be allowed. Why is no one talking to him?
Speaker 1: Why are we seeing this game in and gay out
Speaker 1: game out? Why is? Why would a professional baseball player
Speaker 1: continue to do this? Do they not know better? Have
Speaker 1: they not been taught like? This isn't This isn't baseball
Speaker 1: at an elite level anymore. You see so many different
Speaker 1: things like that. It's well, it's a crazy game these days.
Speaker 1: I come from a betting perspective, and again I guess
Speaker 1: this is the thing with the with betting on sports.
Speaker 1: These games evolved, and I would argue nothing is evolved
Speaker 1: quite as dramatically as baseball has, and it's just the
Speaker 1: tougher sport to harness with at least not it's not
Speaker 1: a fair word. And like the way that the my
Speaker 1: interpretation of evolved, I don't know if it's getting better. No,
Speaker 1: that's not to prefer devolved. Is that what you prefer? Yeah,
Speaker 1: regress a grass when everything goes down. Sorry, consult you
Speaker 1: on my addiction. Let's do can we do? Starting pictures
Speaker 1: from betting perspective, good and bads thus far this year
Speaker 1: Q one real quick, and I'd say one thing real quick.
Speaker 1: I just compared Azzie Smith and no stats. I know,
Speaker 1: I guess it's not even close. Scale is a thousand
Speaker 1: times better baseball Player's right, it's not even close. But
Speaker 1: and that's if you want to just go offensive and
Speaker 1: defensively he's amazing. But I guess my point all as
Speaker 1: as as as sports fans, we do not process, our
Speaker 1: brains do not process that we are being influenced by
Speaker 1: media narrative all those years. Right, So it is not
Speaker 1: by the way, this is not negative about Ozzie Smith.
Speaker 1: I think he should be in the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1: Great player, right, love Ozzie Smith. But how is that not?
Speaker 1: How is Omar Viscal not in like, it's ridiculous. And
Speaker 1: that's why I tell the Art Monk story. It's like, oh,
Speaker 1: because Art Monk didn't want to talk to the media,
Speaker 1: so therefore he was not in the Hall of Fame
Speaker 1: for nine years. That's the only reason. Anyway, So as
Speaker 1: the backdrop of baseball is that much more difficult to bed,
Speaker 1: let me now segue into here are some stats that
Speaker 1: perhaps will help you bets for a baseball And again
Speaker 1: we started this yesterday the Q one derivative show how
Speaker 1: much of this is narrative? How much of this is predictive?
Speaker 1: That is your task here. So this is from a
Speaker 1: betting perspective, and again it's a it's a bizarro exercise.
Speaker 1: If you bet these starting pitchers laying juice, if they
Speaker 1: were a favorite, betting a unit to win more, if
Speaker 1: they were a dog, who would be the biggest money
Speaker 1: winnershed for you thus far this year? Who would be
Speaker 1: the biggest hemorrhages of money for you? Matt Shoemaker still
Speaker 1: number one by the way out for the seasons with
Speaker 1: the Toronto Blue Jays. That's terrible. But the Blue Jays
Speaker 1: were five and oh. Basically in mattch Shoemaker starts this year, um,
Speaker 1: their team win and lost record anyway was five and
Speaker 1: oh and so he if you bet his starts blindly,
Speaker 1: you'd be up six point seven three units. By the way,
Speaker 1: this courtesy of covers. These are fr widely accessible. Jordan Lyles,
Speaker 1: Andrew Kashner. Now imagine this guy told you if I
Speaker 1: told you before the season, I was like, hey, Josh,
Speaker 1: you think Andrew Cashner will be in the top five
Speaker 1: money winners? Uh this season? When you say Trevor Williams
Speaker 1: four and here's a guy that's a very good chance.
Speaker 1: The answer would have been yes on that if you
Speaker 1: really think about it, Well, they're dogs, correct. We think
Speaker 1: about how we thought about the Orioles, right, but you
Speaker 1: know how I thought about the Orioles that the manager
Speaker 1: was the problem. You did you always said that, you
Speaker 1: and so that's another thing you buck show author big
Speaker 1: media Darling. You always went you buck that. By the way,
Speaker 1: Herman Marquez, who's fifth on that list, the Rockies are
Speaker 1: seven and two in Marquez starts this year. One of
Speaker 1: my in my baseball season win total manifesto in Point
Speaker 1: Spread Weekly before this season started, I am under on
Speaker 1: the Rockies. I may yet be right. So far so
Speaker 1: good on the Rockies who are sub five hundred. But
Speaker 1: Marquees I did not expect him to sustain what he
Speaker 1: was doing second half of last season, and he has absolutely.
Speaker 1: They given that contract extension to right, so I believe
Speaker 1: would have. Well, I think they gave him a decent one.
Speaker 1: So anyway, there's your top five list, and again, how
Speaker 1: much of that is predictive? Like if you look at that, Josh,
Speaker 1: are you do you look at that list? Obviously Shoemaker
Speaker 1: is not applicable here. I what I see is is
Speaker 1: Shoemaker on a contract extension, are needing a contract, right,
Speaker 1: He's on a one year deal. He got left Anaheim,
Speaker 1: so he had to pitch well, so you can see
Speaker 1: him doing well. Uh. Kashner, I've actually been on quite
Speaker 1: a few times, especially first five, so I've made some
Speaker 1: money off him because of the adjustments he's made. He's
Speaker 1: got rid of being cutter happy and he went to
Speaker 1: being changed up happy with the fastball, so he's setting
Speaker 1: it up. He's pitching a lot better. The Pittsburgh Pirate boys.
Speaker 1: They always play well in April, and if you go,
Speaker 1: we'll go back to history. This staff can flat out
Speaker 1: pitch and that team always plays better in April and
Speaker 1: falls off in May. So I mean, I could honestly
Speaker 1: make a case for some of these guys preseason. And
Speaker 1: like I said, with the Kashner thing, knowing what he
Speaker 1: did and then knowing the price you're gonna get, like
Speaker 1: I bet on him twice. One early verse of the
Speaker 1: Yankee he's and I think the one recently was I
Speaker 1: think it was versus tamp I think it was, and
Speaker 1: it was at Tampon ended up pulling it out. I've
Speaker 1: had him twice this year on big money. So, like
Speaker 1: I said, I can make a baby case. It's not
Speaker 1: that surprising to me. But you know how it is.
Speaker 1: There a lot of the guys are always gonna be dogs.
Speaker 1: So you win one out of three, one out of four,
Speaker 1: you're probably making money. Well, that's right, that's why we
Speaker 1: do these lists, right because and and you'll see that
Speaker 1: in the reflected in the bottom five. So the bottom
Speaker 1: five is always gonna be not always, but most of
Speaker 1: the time is going to be littered with big name pitchers.
Speaker 1: Why because they're gonna be huge favorites is the exact
Speaker 1: converse of what you're just talking about. And when they
Speaker 1: lose those games, it's a lot to make up for.
Speaker 1: So Blake snell through, let's be honest, no real fault
Speaker 1: of his own, uh is the is the big loser
Speaker 1: for Oh, we did a reverse order, he's the fifth,
Speaker 1: he's the bottom five, so he's fifth lowest on the list,
Speaker 1: the three and five when he's when he takes the
Speaker 1: hill for his squad um. Marcus Stroman the good version
Speaker 1: of Marcus Stroman this year actually, but hasn't worked out.
Speaker 1: The Blue Jays just really inept on offense. The Blue
Speaker 1: Jays are two and seven in Stroman starts this year,
Speaker 1: so you'd be down six point five units plus almost
Speaker 1: six point six units if you bet Stroman games. Finally,
Speaker 1: then there's Trevor Richards. For goodness sake, poor Trevor Richards.
Speaker 1: So listen, he plays with the Marlins. They've been a dog.
Speaker 1: All eight times he's taken the hill, They've lost each
Speaker 1: and every time. So you'd be down eight units with
Speaker 1: Trevor Richards. And then there's sale in Suzer, two of
Speaker 1: the biggest names in baseball, who are the two biggest
Speaker 1: hemorrhgers here at the Q. One more Yeah, and this
Speaker 1: list like says a lot to me. Once again, I've
Speaker 1: been on the correct side of a lot of these,
Speaker 1: like I was. I was wrong with Blake Snail to
Speaker 1: start the season. He lost that game. I bet, but
Speaker 1: him coming back off the d L recently, I was
Speaker 1: on the other side because of the situation in which
Speaker 1: he came back and he hadn't pitched right. So I've
Speaker 1: I've done okay with Snail. Stroman. I would never bet
Speaker 1: because I don't think he's good, and they don't flat
Speaker 1: out runs per game. They don't score for him. We
Speaker 1: had it. We bet against him the other day at home,
Speaker 1: and even though he'd been dealing in April, they just
Speaker 1: don't score for him. Chris still, he started off on
Speaker 1: five if you were back in him laying two dollars,
Speaker 1: and he was on five and he was struggling his loss.
Speaker 1: He was down. Well, you should probably shouldn't betting anyways,
Speaker 1: because you can't just bet somebody for their name. And
Speaker 1: Max Scherzer was one in seven. So we were betting
Speaker 1: against Scherzer because they weren't winning for him until his
Speaker 1: last start in l A And why because max Us
Speaker 1: was plus money. How many times you get MAXI plus money.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take an ace on a night game at
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Baseball again that he steps up for because
Speaker 1: of all the attention and who he is and plus money.
Speaker 1: So a lot of these guys, man, you can't just
Speaker 1: you can't just bet these these big dogs at laying
Speaker 1: two and three all the time. That's idiotic. Like you
Speaker 1: have to find the right times to bet these guys
Speaker 1: in order to make money. Like you can't just blindly
Speaker 1: bet the favorites all the time. And the point of
Speaker 1: all this, again is is not to say this will
Speaker 1: always be the case for both the top five and
Speaker 1: the bottom five. It's just this is what has happened
Speaker 1: thus far. Which of these means something moving forward? Which doesn't?
Speaker 1: And I would argue, uh, look, you're always gonna have
Speaker 1: big names on you, Flip Cashner's I've been three to
Speaker 1: three and five. He probably still plus money. Yeah. Still
Speaker 1: the Orioles though, Josh, And that's a tough band. No,
Speaker 1: it's not a good team. I get a yeah, And
Speaker 1: that's what I'm saying. If you have took their manager
Speaker 1: out last year and brought with this manager in Brandon
Speaker 1: Hayden last year with that same team before they traded him,
Speaker 1: do you realize how good that team is? Like all
Speaker 1: those I mean, there's some really good baseball players. They
Speaker 1: Let me just add this about the Orioles though. Before
Speaker 1: the season started, we we talked about their first fifty
Speaker 1: five games and how tough their schedule was. And I
Speaker 1: sat here and I said, I believe. I said, I go,
Speaker 1: if they go fifteen and forty. If I gave you
Speaker 1: the over under fifteen and forty, what would you say?
Speaker 1: And everybody shouted me down and said, oh, you'd have
Speaker 1: to make the line ten. Uh. They're fourteen and twenty six,
Speaker 1: which is not good at baseball, but it's a lot
Speaker 1: better than any of us thought they'd be at this point.
Speaker 1: Orioles still with the worst run differential though, and all
Speaker 1: of baseball. No check that. The Marlins still worse, the
Speaker 1: worst in the American League, minus seventy five, the Marlins
Speaker 1: at minus ninety one in the Nationally. We'll come back.
Speaker 1: We'll do umpires. That's for totals betters and for side
Speaker 1: betters as well when an umpire gets assigned, but primarily
Speaker 1: for totals betters. And we'll bring in Mark Borcher because
Speaker 1: he has a historical umpire database. We'll go through that
Speaker 1: on the Q one MLB Derivative Show here on a Tuesday,
Speaker 1: right here on Visa. Now back to a Numbers game
Speaker 1: with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa
Speaker 1: in studios in Laws, Vegas. Back on the Numbers Game
Speaker 1: here at Visa and sort of lazy Tuesday here as
Speaker 1: the NBA Playoffs resumes tonight. Let's talk umpire, shall we, Josh,
Speaker 1: Let's talk umpires. Yeah, let's talk those guys. All right,
Speaker 1: umpires your favorite thing. Well, I'm curious for your perspective though,
Speaker 1: here Josh, because and let's bring in Mark Borcher from
Speaker 1: Clear Data Sports, who has a umpire database. Nobody likes umpires.
Speaker 1: Uh this, I'm quite fond of them. Uh. These are
Speaker 1: the top five over reliable umpires again this Q one,
Speaker 1: Uh so again this will be perhaps more meaningful Q
Speaker 1: two certainly maybe Q three again Q one. It's a
Speaker 1: little little jan kie because it's like, okay, what does
Speaker 1: this mean anything? But here are your top five over umpires.
Speaker 1: Wolf's not on these lists, and we don't need to
Speaker 1: talk about umpires because he's the US in the game.
Speaker 1: All right. Let me just point out that that Victor
Speaker 1: Kara Pazza and Corey Blazer respectively, four games then when
Speaker 1: when they were behind home plate, all went over for
Speaker 1: Victor Karapasa, three games behind home plate, all went over
Speaker 1: for Corey Blazer. But those are really small sample sizes.
Speaker 1: Let's just jack it up a little bit. Here are
Speaker 1: your top five over umpires. Chad whitson seven of the
Speaker 1: eight games in which he's been calling balls and strikes
Speaker 1: have gone over the total but betting total. And then
Speaker 1: Paul Emil, who's a familiar name. Alan Porter, six out
Speaker 1: of seven games that they've been behind home plate have
Speaker 1: gone over Jeff, Jeff Kellogg and the aforementioned DJ Rayber.
Speaker 1: He made sure of it last night. He absolutely did. Uh.
Speaker 1: That is timely information right there. Five out of six,
Speaker 1: or would have been yesterday anyway, five out of six
Speaker 1: have gone over uh thus far this year when those
Speaker 1: guys have been calling balls and strikes. Bringing Mark Bortser
Speaker 1: from Clear Data Sports. He's, by the way, courtesy of
Speaker 1: covers dot Com as well Mark. Any of those names, uh,
Speaker 1: Kara Pasa, Blazer, Witson, Emil Porter, Kellogger Rayber and any
Speaker 1: historical consistency there with those guys. Yeah, And just to
Speaker 1: kind of give you the methodology, just real briefly, it's
Speaker 1: a four year weighted average and strikeout percentage, walk percentage,
Speaker 1: and groundball percentage, and that that gives you, uh an
Speaker 1: expected to earned run average for the umpire So Alan
Speaker 1: Porter and Paul Emil or in the top I would
Speaker 1: say twelve. But one thing I wanted to ask Josh
Speaker 1: because I think I heard him talking about this guy
Speaker 1: is Alfonso Marquez. Was that was that guy in nemesis
Speaker 1: for a picture. No, not Alfonso, who was the guy
Speaker 1: that you were talking about that. It's the one who
Speaker 1: has the lawsuit against MLB um Angel Hernandez, Angel Hernandez.
Speaker 1: He's the one that he intentionally factors in. He makes
Speaker 1: it about him. He's the He's the umpire that every
Speaker 1: player I have yet to meet a player that likes him.
Speaker 1: We all pay to see Angel hernandas well. Yeah, think
Speaker 1: that's exactly. He's Alfonso Marquez actually a really good dude.
Speaker 1: So Emmelyn Porter, So Emlyn Porter your two days because
Speaker 1: I thinks that's huge. It's not just this year. These
Speaker 1: guys are consistently over over over umpires over time. So
Speaker 1: sites like stat Fox they will have umpire assignments. So
Speaker 1: when you are handicapping your games, particularly on totals, note
Speaker 1: that when emmil and Porter are calling balls and strikes,
Speaker 1: how about the opposite here, Mark, Let's do the top
Speaker 1: five under umpires thus far this year, Rob Drake, six
Speaker 1: out of seven behind own plate have gone under, Chris Siegel,
Speaker 1: and Andy Fletcher and Mike Esterbrook. Oh there's Mike Esterbrook. Mark,
Speaker 1: we we know that name. Four out of five have
Speaker 1: gone under and there's dan Iya Sonja also a guy
Speaker 1: that we've talked about through the years. You and me
Speaker 1: Mark on on the Beating of the Book podcast six
Speaker 1: out of eight under our esterbrook Sonia always under guys
Speaker 1: or is this a departure? So their component their components
Speaker 1: stats are indicate that they go to the under there
Speaker 1: in the top can of under opp fires and then
Speaker 1: Marley and and the other guy asked the Brook eat
Speaker 1: numbers three. As far as our you know, advance ratings
Speaker 1: for for umpires who who you know, the component rates
Speaker 1: would would suggest that it would go under. Okay, so
Speaker 1: Esther Brooke and I Sonia consistent under guys because you
Speaker 1: know Drake siegelan fletcher who knows. Maybe that's just naberration
Speaker 1: here in a small sample size, but here's what we
Speaker 1: know again on the overside, Emily and Porter are the
Speaker 1: names you need to focus on st the Brook and
Speaker 1: I Sonia the names you need to focus on on
Speaker 1: the underside. And that is some key betting information again
Speaker 1: for not only totals betters, also side betters as well,
Speaker 1: but in this case um primarily the totals side of things.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Mark, I appreciate the database man. Thank you
Speaker 1: for that my pleasure, gil Mark Mark Clear Data Sports.
Speaker 1: Oh we cut off Mark like I like guys on
Speaker 1: the right. Deanders is a good umpires. Those are good umpires.
Speaker 1: So true about DJ Rayburn, though he made sure that
Speaker 1: game went over. That's That's another thing about last night's game.
Speaker 1: The under betters went to die on that pitch, like Nope,
Speaker 1: that's not right, by the way. The other thing. And
Speaker 1: then when I faced the same hitter over and over again,
Speaker 1: I better make an adjustment. You know that are gonna
Speaker 1: make a justice back. I can't pitch to them in
Speaker 1: the exact same way I face you a hundred times ago.
Speaker 1: I better make some adjustments. When I watched Vogel box swing,
Speaker 1: I don't think that I have to make an adjustment.
Speaker 1: I don't see a guy that's gonna set me up
Speaker 1: very much. And he's a pretty big dude, so his
Speaker 1: swing is pretty limited. He's an extension guy. I would
Speaker 1: be pounding him in over and over again, like every
Speaker 1: day I go over the scarring report. Let's say every
Speaker 1: four days we go to the scary report. You're gonna go.
Speaker 1: You can get vocal back in, you can get Vogel
Speaker 1: back in. That's not really gonna change over the course
Speaker 1: of his season. Like, he's the one guy that I
Speaker 1: think I would stay hard in majority of the time
Speaker 1: when I would go away, I would throw something so
Speaker 1: so off the plate away that I got him to
Speaker 1: cheat to look. But then I would come back hard
Speaker 1: in Like the pitch that he hit over the wall.
Speaker 1: That's the one pitch I would stay away from, something
Speaker 1: out over that he can get extended on. That's his
Speaker 1: bread and butter um. And again, not to just focus
Speaker 1: on this one Athletics Mariners game, but the last thing
Speaker 1: about this because the reason I am is because it
Speaker 1: represented so much about the sport of baseball, represented so
Speaker 1: much about betting baseball last night, the vagaries of it,
Speaker 1: and so much of what you just scream about as
Speaker 1: a guy who's like a get off my law and
Speaker 1: baseball guy. Loriano's homer in the top of the tenth
Speaker 1: that at the time put the Athletics up five to
Speaker 1: four was something that would have driven you crazy because
Speaker 1: it was so clear that all he was doing was
Speaker 1: sitting on a breaking ball and and just Brennan was
Speaker 1: just like, Okay, here's your breaking ball, and he just
Speaker 1: launched it in the left fields and it was just
Speaker 1: he would have I thought about you. I was like,
Speaker 1: if Josh is washing, this is losing his mind. At
Speaker 1: this point. We'll come back. Thank you to our bortcher
Speaker 1: for the umpires there. We'll come back. We'll do the
Speaker 1: much more interesting stuff for betters. We'll do first five
Speaker 1: inning stats and then we'll get into some proprietary first
Speaker 1: sitting stats for first inning bettors as well. Is the
Speaker 1: Q one MLB Derivatives episode Here on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at Visa now live from the Vision Studios in the
Speaker 1: South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is
Speaker 1: our number two of the numbers game right here had Visa,
Speaker 1: the VEG Stats and Information Network, serious XP, Channel two four,
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com, the Vista app, Fubo TV, Slink TV,
Speaker 1: Game Plus throughout Canada, New York City. We appreciate everybody listening.
Speaker 1: Josh Towers kind enough to join us on this Tuesday
Speaker 1: for our Q one MLB Derivative show Pulse spor be
Speaker 1: joining us for fan graphs later on. He'll have your
Speaker 1: DFS plays of the day and who knows producing number five.
Speaker 1: Jeff Parls might have a baseball pick later on in
Speaker 1: the show. By the way, Borcher with the Umpire database.
Speaker 1: Very kind of him to join, even though he's on
Speaker 1: the ten D d L right now. For the picks segment,
Speaker 1: he went out of winner under the DL he gotta win,
Speaker 1: and then he bounced and then he went on the
Speaker 1: end and then I had a comment and then where
Speaker 1: I like, you you have an injury. He's like, what
Speaker 1: are you talking about. I was like, no, no, you
Speaker 1: have an injury. UM. We love Mark borcherd by the way, um,
Speaker 1: and we appreciate that umpire database because that is that
Speaker 1: is gold right there. That is solid betting stuff right there.
Speaker 1: So let's move on. Let's go to the uh first
Speaker 1: five innings here and years ago, so this is about
Speaker 1: seven or eight years ago. I ran it to Tom
Speaker 1: Federico over there a team rankings and he had baseball
Speaker 1: stats and I and I said, this is before first
Speaker 1: five bets were that mainstream. And I said to him,
Speaker 1: I go, you know you have on your website all
Speaker 1: this great inning by inning data, you know, betters bet
Speaker 1: the first five innings. Can you cull that together and
Speaker 1: put those out? And he was like, oh, he wasn't
Speaker 1: necessarily aware of at the times like sure, and so
Speaker 1: they did it there. By the way, now you have
Speaker 1: guys at team rankings who try to like troll us
Speaker 1: about saying tight rims in college basketball games, which is
Speaker 1: another hilarious side of that. UM, keep doing that, by
Speaker 1: the way, So MLB team first five innings runs per game.
Speaker 1: This is courtesy of the good folks over at team Rankings,
Speaker 1: Tom Federico's operation over there. Seattle Mariners thus far this year,
Speaker 1: again through again as the teams round the game bend
Speaker 1: here Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers three point four
Speaker 1: or five runs on offense per first five thus far
Speaker 1: this year, the Twinkies right behind them at three point
Speaker 1: four two, and then the Brewers and the Cubs. Uh thereafter.
Speaker 1: No real surprises there, although I guess the Mariners are
Speaker 1: the one. Would you say, Josh, that you would expect
Speaker 1: to slough off that list? Perhaps? I bet if you
Speaker 1: cut the first quarter and a half and you go
Speaker 1: first twenty games, second twenty games, I bet it would
Speaker 1: be a huge discrepancy in that number. Think you might
Speaker 1: be right, but I think the Twins in the in
Speaker 1: the Cubs, I bet that there's a consistency there. Red
Speaker 1: Sox Cardinals, Dodgers right after that. Top five by the way,
Speaker 1: so usual suspects. If you go to bottom five, Marlins
Speaker 1: are the worst one point four six runs per first
Speaker 1: five minutes. Now imagine, so this is also part of
Speaker 1: I would like to say this. If you're betting the
Speaker 1: Miami Marlins, let's say your model spits out, Oh the Marlins,
Speaker 1: there's value on the Marlins here first five. Um imagine
Speaker 1: that you have to live through that experience where they're
Speaker 1: only scoring one point four six runs per first five
Speaker 1: thus far this year. That is a just in addition
Speaker 1: to probably being a losing bet, it's just an ugly
Speaker 1: experience as a human being. Giants one point seven, Padres
Speaker 1: one point eight. By the way, these are all real
Speaker 1: bad Blue Jays one point two and Tigers one point
Speaker 1: eight seven. You don't usually in all my years doing this,
Speaker 1: you don't usually have five teams there at the bottom
Speaker 1: that are sub two runs per first five. Usually is
Speaker 1: a couple of teams. But that's that's bad. The game
Speaker 1: has has changed to the point where not every not
Speaker 1: all three teams can compete for a World Series. There
Speaker 1: there's such a discrepancy and good teams and teams that
Speaker 1: can't compete anymore. That this is has turned into the norm.
Speaker 1: And when we talked about it briefly about how bad
Speaker 1: hitting has has gotten over the last twenty years. You know,
Speaker 1: ten thousand, nine hundred more strikeouts last year compared to
Speaker 1: oh five. It's crazy what we've seen the change in offense.
Speaker 1: And so this is becoming the normal. Unfortunately, the four teams,
Speaker 1: the Marlins, the Giants, the Blue Jays, the Tigers, we
Speaker 1: knew they were going to be bad. But that's not
Speaker 1: a surprise. Well that was my question, is it you
Speaker 1: say that flippantly? Now, that's not a surprise at all.
Speaker 1: But would you have said the Padres would be at
Speaker 1: one Monday the Padres, I would not have said, Okay,
Speaker 1: that's when they're still a good team, which tells you
Speaker 1: how great their pitching staff is as far as records
Speaker 1: are concerned. Um, that actually shocks me that they're only
Speaker 1: at one point eight. But that goes into their ballpark
Speaker 1: a little bit, I'm sure, and they're twenty two and nineteen,
Speaker 1: three games above four games back, three games above five,
Speaker 1: at one point eight per five innings, so that that
Speaker 1: pitches top is doing a fantastic job. But I thought
Speaker 1: that they would score a little bit more. That is Petko.
Speaker 1: I'd have to check ballpark faticals. Just Petco still as
Speaker 1: big of a pitcher's park as it once was. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure. Numbers wise, I don't know, but going in there,
Speaker 1: the perception when you're pitching, you can't wait to pitch there.
Speaker 1: Blue Jays one eight two, They're a tough watch offensively,
Speaker 1: It's not um of those teams that moving forward. As
Speaker 1: you look at that at that both top five and
Speaker 1: bottom five, and you say to yourself, all right, that's
Speaker 1: all narrative. That's what's happened so far. What is the
Speaker 1: team reliably that you think will be consistent moving forward.
Speaker 1: I mean, I look at that Rangers team and I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 1: they can drop. You know. Look, the Rangers had a
Speaker 1: couple of games there where they scored a ton of runs,
Speaker 1: and I can't remember how many of those were waited
Speaker 1: to the first five. But the Rangers always explosive offensively.
Speaker 1: The Twins, who may be the best story in baseball
Speaker 1: by some measure thus far this year, um so I
Speaker 1: think there's some that's that's what the inconstituencies of not
Speaker 1: having Nelson Cruz because he's been doing out of the lineup.
Speaker 1: But you're talking about the top five, the Rangers, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: the Mariners will fall off because of home run can there?
Speaker 1: They rely so heavily on the home run and the
Speaker 1: type of team they are with how many errors they make.
Speaker 1: I think they legal league and errors and strikeouts as well. Um,
Speaker 1: the Mariners will taper down those other four teams in
Speaker 1: my opinion, they'll stay pretty consistent right there with those runs.
Speaker 1: On the flip side to the bottom five, I can
Speaker 1: see the pladres changing slightly. The other four teams, nothing's
Speaker 1: going to change with their offense. Petko by the way,
Speaker 1: twenty six and ballpark factors, so yes, there is something
Speaker 1: to to that. By the way, right after that top five,
Speaker 1: the Indians there, they're so bad, the Orioles so bad.
Speaker 1: No surprises. Um. So that's courtesy of team rankings. Again,
Speaker 1: thank you to the team rankings folks. Uh. That is
Speaker 1: the average runs scored per first five thus far this year.
Speaker 1: When we get into actual now wins and losses first five.
Speaker 1: This is from Joe Osborne. Is that correct? Jeff Okay? Uh? So,
Speaker 1: Joe Osborne, the shout out to him for providing these
Speaker 1: is the first five. We usually go to my my
Speaker 1: boys at onside sports. We'll get to their onside sports,
Speaker 1: and in Q two we'll get to their splits on
Speaker 1: these and it gets a little deeper. But this uh
Speaker 1: courtesy first five innings record here, Um, the Rays four,
Speaker 1: twelve and three. These are for again if you went
Speaker 1: through the Bizarro exercise of betting these teams blindly first
Speaker 1: five each and every game thus far this year, it
Speaker 1: is the Raise and the Twins, who I think are
Speaker 1: the two most uh, the two big surprises to the
Speaker 1: good in baseball this year thus far, rave and three
Speaker 1: Twinkies twelve and four. And then you have the Phillies,
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Dodgers. Um, no real huge surprise.
Speaker 1: I guess they're um rounding up the top five first
Speaker 1: five and you go to the bottom five. Now this
Speaker 1: is always interesting. So the Marlins are the worst. The
Speaker 1: Marlins are the worst period right there? Not twenty three
Speaker 1: and seven, the Rockies eleven, twenty one and eight. Now,
Speaker 1: this was my point when I did the under on
Speaker 1: the Rockies. I just don't trust that starting staff well, right,
Speaker 1: because last year the starting staff was amazing and the
Speaker 1: bullpen couldn't. They were the worst ever this year. The
Speaker 1: starting staff it's atrocious, and the bullpen is awesome. Well,
Speaker 1: they had some bullpen parts last year. They had outo
Speaker 1: Vino last year, but they still struggle as a whole.
Speaker 1: They were like average, like e r A. Wise, they
Speaker 1: were like the worst. They blew a lot of games.
Speaker 1: It's they flipped between starting and relieving from last year
Speaker 1: this year. But that was my point that the Rocky
Speaker 1: starting pitcher, and I was I was wrong about Marquez,
Speaker 1: but I thought the rotation up and down was not sustainable.
Speaker 1: And so you can see this now through the first
Speaker 1: five inning betting stats. Rockies eleven, twenty one, and eight.
Speaker 1: If you bet them first five blindly, and by the way,
Speaker 1: if you're doing that, something's wrong with you. Giants eleven,
Speaker 1: twenty three and six's Giants Marlins all on every list.
Speaker 1: Jay's how about the Nationals though, right, Nationals thirteen and seventeen.
Speaker 1: So that's got to be somewhat surprised. First five, That's
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. So first five you're talking about, well,
Speaker 1: this is the limit. Has been good, sure, there's not
Speaker 1: been bad, has been good. So you have like Sanchez
Speaker 1: and whoever else has been that bad. So think about that, Jeff.
Speaker 1: They just had a weekend, a four game series in
Speaker 1: l A where Corbin won in the first five, Animal
Speaker 1: Sanchez got crushed in the first Max lost, Max lost,
Speaker 1: and Strasburg lost. Well, part of that was what we
Speaker 1: were just talking about. With how many runs they're producing
Speaker 1: first five. We only flashed up the top five, but
Speaker 1: if you extended that to the top ten, Washington's in it.
Speaker 1: They only swore two point to seven runs per first
Speaker 1: five thus far this year. That informs a lot of it.
Speaker 1: By the way, we didn't put up the first five
Speaker 1: allowed UM also courtesy of team rankings. This is first
Speaker 1: five allowed the Reds, your Cincinnati Reds, Josh, they can
Speaker 1: pitch man one point six six runs allowed, they can
Speaker 1: first five. So they're like basically UM pitching against the
Speaker 1: Giants offense first five, as are the Rays basically each
Speaker 1: it every time out thus far this year. Raise one
Speaker 1: point six second. If you take away the blown saves
Speaker 1: by Glaciers. And I'm not putting this all on a
Speaker 1: Glaciers but because their offense isn't very good. But if
Speaker 1: you take away the blown saves, let's just say he
Speaker 1: has a he's having a great start to blows one
Speaker 1: save on the season. Great start there in first place. Yeah,
Speaker 1: their offense is tough to watch. UM Dodgers one point
Speaker 1: nine three, Yankees two twins two point one. Certainly no
Speaker 1: surprise with the Dodgers necessarily or the Yankees. UM bottom
Speaker 1: five is allowed runs allowed per first five the White
Speaker 1: Sox because this is first five innings runs alloud. All
Speaker 1: the talk about the Yankees and their starting staff isn't
Speaker 1: very good and we don't trust the starting staff and
Speaker 1: c C and happens, right, and look how good they look,
Speaker 1: how good they are. And by the way, this is
Speaker 1: with a you know, injury riddled Yankees version right for
Speaker 1: most of the Q one, Um, they're gonna be just
Speaker 1: fine the rest of the way. White Socks are the
Speaker 1: worst defenders in terms of giving up runs first five Orioles, Rangers, Angels,
Speaker 1: Mariners all north of three runs per first Keep that
Speaker 1: list out real quick. I just want to go to
Speaker 1: errors in baseball. The Mariners are leading all the baseball
Speaker 1: in forty five thirty nine errors. There on that list.
Speaker 1: The White Sox second most errors thirty five. Are they
Speaker 1: on that list? Yep? They're the worst. They're the worst
Speaker 1: three point four runs allowed per first five awesome Orioles, Rangers, Angels,
Speaker 1: and and then you make a good point though, that's
Speaker 1: the that's the part of this equation. We we immediately
Speaker 1: gravitate towards the pitching. But there's there's flies in the ointment,
Speaker 1: and flies in the ointment is your defense. And if
Speaker 1: your defense is letting you down, well yeah, because those
Speaker 1: aren't urn runs. Those are just run. Those are just runs.
Speaker 1: That's right, those aren't urn runs. Those are just runs.
Speaker 1: We'll be back, we'll talk first first inning wagers. So
Speaker 1: again with all of this stuff, the point is, all right,
Speaker 1: that's what's happened. Uh, it's interesting. But if I'm handicapping
Speaker 1: a game tonight or tomorrow night, can you put that
Speaker 1: up like gils talking? Can you apply this moving forward?
Speaker 1: And my answer to you would be um, sometimes yes,
Speaker 1: most of the time's probably not especially Q one here.
Speaker 1: Most of this A lot of this could just be
Speaker 1: aberrations here in a forty game sample size. There are
Speaker 1: there are some things in there, though, again the Yankees
Speaker 1: being one of them, the red starting staff. That that's
Speaker 1: some information that I think you can use moving forward.
Speaker 1: But it feel real quick, that top five least runs allowed,
Speaker 1: So four of the five are top ten in defense.
Speaker 1: There you go. The only one that's not is the Yankees.
Speaker 1: Is the Yankees, and yet look at the Yankees overcoming that.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll do first innings as well, and these
Speaker 1: get into sort of proprietary stats now that you won't
Speaker 1: find anywhere else. We'll go through uh team rankings, will
Speaker 1: give us the first inning score percentages and score percentages allowed.
Speaker 1: But then I'll go into the database and give you
Speaker 1: the on base percentage allowed by starting pitchers thus far
Speaker 1: this year, in just the first inning, will do a
Speaker 1: minimum Q one here of thirty plate appearances faced. This
Speaker 1: is interesting coming up on a numbers game Q one
Speaker 1: MLB derivatives right here, visa back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our VS
Speaker 1: in studios in Las Vegas. I should point out that
Speaker 1: Josh Tower is in my producer number five. Jeff Parl's
Speaker 1: almost went two blows here in the break over a.
Speaker 1: But if you hear the argument, it doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1: We're we're we're on the opposite side to the spectrum
Speaker 1: on the on the great defensive shortstops. One in the
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. One not in the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1: We're talking about Viscale and Ozzie Smith again. But you're
Speaker 1: what you're saying is defensive means absolutely nothing I'm saying.
Speaker 1: You're saying it defense is irrelevant when you're talking about
Speaker 1: getting into the Hall of Fame, So you might as
Speaker 1: well put like, I don't even know there's some hitters
Speaker 1: that are so bad, but so every d h should
Speaker 1: be in the Hall of Fame. I'm gonna say six
Speaker 1: words that didn't often say on this show. I'm with
Speaker 1: Josh on this one. That's funny. Yah, Josh is right,
Speaker 1: because you're saying then it's just so you don't believe
Speaker 1: the scale or Ozzie should be in the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1: That just means that you're emphasizing one side of the game.
Speaker 1: And all those guys aren't even in lineups for their offense, right,
Speaker 1: Like that has nothing to do with them even playing
Speaker 1: the spade baseball, you know. And Omar Viscale is unassailably
Speaker 1: he should be in the Hall of Fame. If ozz
Speaker 1: he's in, I mean he's only he's only a couple
Speaker 1: of hundred below three thousand hits. But the Jeff Parl's
Speaker 1: Offensive Baseball Hall of Fame does not include busts or
Speaker 1: those two guys. There's there's Cooper's down and then there's Jeff's.
Speaker 1: But that's there they two were talking about. You're talking
Speaker 1: about a leadoff guy in a second hold hitter. You're
Speaker 1: not talking about power guys, like not everybody hit the
Speaker 1: ball over the fence. That's not that's not I mean,
Speaker 1: because if we're doing that, I understand that. But would
Speaker 1: you count what would you say those guys are average?
Speaker 1: Were they offensive liabilities? Would you count those guys? And
Speaker 1: I know and I know Viscale had almost over They
Speaker 1: both became better hitters as their career progressed, but they
Speaker 1: were awful hitters early for sure, for sure, but they
Speaker 1: were just absolute outmakers, right, they were vacuums. That's part
Speaker 1: of the sport of baseball. And again, my only point
Speaker 1: is this, if Ozzy's in the scale has to be in.
Speaker 1: All this stuff is subjective. Listen, I made the Art
Speaker 1: Monk argument, like how Art Monk had to wait nine
Speaker 1: years as a centerpiece for three Super Bowl champions and
Speaker 1: had led the NFL in the most catches at the
Speaker 1: time of his at the time of his retirement. But
Speaker 1: Lynn Swan, who everybody immediately would say, of course, Lynn
Speaker 1: Swans in the hallway. By the way, everybody in Pittsburgh's
Speaker 1: hating me right now for breathing this up. But Lynn
Speaker 1: Swan caught three hundred and however many balls. That's all
Speaker 1: he caught in his entire NFL career. But he had
Speaker 1: iconic catches in Super Bowls, right, made in two seasons.
Speaker 1: It was a different it was a different understand, it
Speaker 1: was a different game. Let me just point that out.
Speaker 1: But still, but he's and no one questions it is.
Speaker 1: Of course he's in because he's Lynn Swan. And I'm
Speaker 1: just saying the subjectivity of these kinds of things that
Speaker 1: you know, you can talk days about it well, And
Speaker 1: that's That's another one that I'm not going to bring
Speaker 1: up on air that we talked about off the air,
Speaker 1: that that Josh and I could probably talk about for
Speaker 1: I want to ask you a question on those how
Speaker 1: many home runs do you think Buster Posey's and Yadia
Speaker 1: I'm reallyna have I guess we just brought it in.
Speaker 1: I know for a fact that Yadio Molinda does not have,
Speaker 1: does not have a lot. How many good Buster Posey
Speaker 1: has in his career, I'd probably a similar number to
Speaker 1: Molina correct, give or take, give or take, give take
Speaker 1: twenty home runs, right, what do you think the number is?
Speaker 1: Do you know the number? I don't know the number
Speaker 1: off the top of my head. Under two hundred career homers.
Speaker 1: So we're talking about on basse plus slugging, and you're
Speaker 1: talking about two guys that are two of the best
Speaker 1: of what they do defensively are amazing. Three World Series
Speaker 1: for Buster forced onlen base attempts this year, no one
Speaker 1: runs on Yaddi. He calls a fantastic game rule change
Speaker 1: forced by Buster Posey on an injury. I think both
Speaker 1: of those guys are Hall of famers. So that's where
Speaker 1: I'm kind of contradictory all over the place. Here you're
Speaker 1: talking about hits for Bose, You like he doesn't even
Speaker 1: have half of them. As hell, here's the thing, how
Speaker 1: much do you do you put in the postseason success?
Speaker 1: Suppose zero? Zero? Postseason means nothing to me when you're
Speaker 1: talking about the Hall of Fame, because not everybody gets
Speaker 1: to go to the Hall of Fame. I mean the
Speaker 1: postseason but that's a team sport to my game, plut
Speaker 1: my point of subjectivity. That matters to some voters, right yeah,
Speaker 1: and it matters nothing to me because you don't there's
Speaker 1: no guarantees that you're going to the postseason, but does
Speaker 1: guarantee you're playing in And we're comparing your three thousand hits.
Speaker 1: That's what you did in the regular season. That's not
Speaker 1: what you did in the postseason. You may never have
Speaker 1: went to the postseason. I may have win every year
Speaker 1: because I was in the right place. I got a
Speaker 1: World Series ring because I happened to sign with the
Speaker 1: right team at the right time. Had nothing to do
Speaker 1: with me, so that I get credit for that, that's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: You slip that in there, Jenn nicely. The postseason means
Speaker 1: absolutely nothing when we're talking about Hall of Fame. Well,
Speaker 1: some people would disagree with you, but yes, we will
Speaker 1: bring the last possible. By the way, people landing on
Speaker 1: the show for the first time, I'm like, God, I
Speaker 1: only talks about his base. It's like, this is the
Speaker 1: first day where we've gone all baseball that on this
Speaker 1: Let's do first innings for betters because first inning wagers
Speaker 1: or something that I've talked about on the Beating of
Speaker 1: the Book podcast on on a numbers game now for years.
Speaker 1: They just started offering first inning wager wagers here at
Speaker 1: the South Point, and now everybody is talking about him.
Speaker 1: But there is a very uh systematic way that we
Speaker 1: bet first innings. I don't necessarily talk about it on air,
Speaker 1: but let's talk about the stats thus far. This is
Speaker 1: provided from our good friends over team rankings. Once again,
Speaker 1: this is first inning scoring percentages, so the percentage of
Speaker 1: games thus far this year where this team's offense has
Speaker 1: played a run or more. No surprise, Josh, who would
Speaker 1: be number one on this list? Correct? Say the question again?
Speaker 1: Sorry Josh, to interrupt you. First inning scoring percentage, it's
Speaker 1: the race, so more than one in two games, right,
Speaker 1: more than half the time. The Rays offenses playing a
Speaker 1: run in the first inning has discussed often on this network.
Speaker 1: Everybody going crazy about the Rays first inning, yeses um,
Speaker 1: but the Rays offense has had a lot to do
Speaker 1: with that. By the way, it drops after the race.
Speaker 1: It drops all the way to for second bet, which
Speaker 1: is the Yankees. Uh, and then Atlanta the Braves played
Speaker 1: a run thirty nine point zero two percent of the
Speaker 1: time and first dates thus far this year. But clearly
Speaker 1: it's the raise, just the outlier here in Q one. Now,
Speaker 1: I would argue, right, we're talking about what of this
Speaker 1: is narrative and one of this is predictive? To me,
Speaker 1: this is not predictive, right, No team is going to
Speaker 1: sustain that over the course of an MLB season. So
Speaker 1: just file that away and you can get back to
Speaker 1: me on that um. By the way, the opposite of
Speaker 1: that again, courtesy of team rankings, who is scoring runs
Speaker 1: the least percentage wise their offense, that is playing a
Speaker 1: runner more in the first sitting, the San Francisco Giants,
Speaker 1: Ready for this, Josh, one out of every ten games
Speaker 1: scoring the first of the time they scored the first.
Speaker 1: Chase that around find the right picture for them. You
Speaker 1: chase that around crazy. That might be a little more predictive,
Speaker 1: but it's not gonna be that low. They'll get better
Speaker 1: than that. No, it's not gonna get that much better.
Speaker 1: I don't think Giants ten percent. By the way, Marlin's
Speaker 1: usual suspects fifteen point three eight percent of the time
Speaker 1: we talked about how they barely scored both of these
Speaker 1: teams in the first five let alone the first inning itself,
Speaker 1: so that makes sense. The Cardinals, uh, seventeen point zero
Speaker 1: seven percent of the time in the first stating. That's
Speaker 1: a little weird, but you know, Carps that well haven't
Speaker 1: made too many adjustments first sitting, so it's strange, little
Speaker 1: microcosum right of a game. I retie on that list.
Speaker 1: Pirates are, yeah, their seventh best, So it goes raised
Speaker 1: scoring a lot. That's scoring a lot in the first stitting.
Speaker 1: It's because Melkie's hitting so good this year? Was he
Speaker 1: about in second? He's hitting You know, me and my
Speaker 1: buddy Mark Meltzer like cell through watching uh Melkie yesterday,
Speaker 1: We're like, wow, Melkie still playing. He's top ten average.
Speaker 1: I think Milkie is still playing after all these years.
Speaker 1: By the way, the opposite of this, now this is
Speaker 1: first inning opponents score percentage. So the best at run
Speaker 1: prevention in the first sitting, we're talking on a team basis.
Speaker 1: It is the Minnesota Twins, whose opponents have only school
Speaker 1: word of the time in the first inning. Pittsburgh zero
Speaker 1: five percent, Chicago Cubs twenty one point zero five percent.
Speaker 1: Those are the best three in terms of run prevention.
Speaker 1: The worst, now, this is the double whammy for the
Speaker 1: Giants because we just talked about how the Giants were
Speaker 1: the worst in the first inning. They only score one
Speaker 1: out of every ten games in the first inning. They
Speaker 1: are the worst team in baseball when it comes to
Speaker 1: first inning run prevention because their opponents score forty two
Speaker 1: point five percent of the time in the first in
Speaker 1: It's so funny because when Tampa went in there and
Speaker 1: played them the first inning, was they destroyed. It was
Speaker 1: just it was unbelievable. Um Royals, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins
Speaker 1: again usual suspects versities. By the way, it was in
Speaker 1: six the Nationals, which is again that sort of weird
Speaker 1: thing with the Nationals. They've allowed to run in the
Speaker 1: first innings thus far this year thirty five percent of
Speaker 1: the time. They're six worst than that. But the Giants
Speaker 1: the Kniella of bad to use the old hi all
Speaker 1: I betting turn the they are, uh, they are a
Speaker 1: first sitting disaster thus far. Today is the first inting.
Speaker 1: So so now here's the thing. Three dollars. Now, I
Speaker 1: just want to point this out. I do not bet
Speaker 1: first innings this way, but I am providing this information
Speaker 1: for you because people love to hear these kind of
Speaker 1: sets of like, oh, the Giants, they're they're worst on
Speaker 1: offense and first intings, their worst in pitching and first innings.
Speaker 1: It's actually not how I bet first sittings, but it
Speaker 1: is interesting information. Thank you to Team Rankings for that stuff.
Speaker 1: Now now for the proprietary pitching stuff. Um so I'm
Speaker 1: I go through and this is again it's a little
Speaker 1: different Q one, especially with starting pictures because obviously they're
Speaker 1: on a rotation. So I made a minimum here of
Speaker 1: thirty plate appearances faced here Q one of the Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball season. But these are the pictures who have
Speaker 1: allowed the highest and just for giggles, I went with
Speaker 1: on base percentage as the opposing stat These are the
Speaker 1: pictures that have allowed the highest and the lowest on
Speaker 1: base percentage that's in the first inning of own thus
Speaker 1: far this year. Any idea, who the worst offender in
Speaker 1: first innings thus far this year is of starting pitchers,
Speaker 1: the guy who is just a gas can in the
Speaker 1: first frame. I gotta feeling it's not gonna surprise me.
Speaker 1: I have to check to see if this is even true.
Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta, well, yeah, we bet against him again last night.
Speaker 1: He's been getting absolutely well, he's not ready for the
Speaker 1: big leagues. And the one game that he did pitch well,
Speaker 1: by the way, they had a they had an opener
Speaker 1: pitch to first and then he came in afterwards, which
Speaker 1: was not last night. It was the outing before and
Speaker 1: then last night it was the same thing. Uh, he's
Speaker 1: guiding the ball, he's not fining. I watched him pitch
Speaker 1: last night and he was like almost hoping it to
Speaker 1: go to a location and not. It was really, he's
Speaker 1: not ready. Yeah. I didn't by the way, when I
Speaker 1: said I I gotta check to see if this is true,
Speaker 1: I didn't mean to check that if Freddy Peralta is true,
Speaker 1: I mean to see, like his stats are so bad
Speaker 1: that I have to check. I guess they are. Freddy
Speaker 1: Peralta of the of the Milwaukee Brewers, which to give
Speaker 1: you the number in first innings this year he's given
Speaker 1: up and this is just thirty three at bats against him,
Speaker 1: not so minimum thirty plate appearances, but thirty three official
Speaker 1: at bats. He's given up um four homers the opposing
Speaker 1: Here's here's the better stat on this. The opposing batting
Speaker 1: average on first innings against Peralta thus far this year
Speaker 1: is four fifty five. That's their batting average. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: show you something real quick. This is just the way
Speaker 1: I see it, So last, hold on, hold on, let
Speaker 1: me finish on base percentage against five thirty eight, five
Speaker 1: thirty eight, Josh his whips one point six three slugo
Speaker 1: eight seventy nine. I'm sorry, go ahead. Well, last night
Speaker 1: he went four innings and he gave up two runs
Speaker 1: versus the Phillies. The game before was the game he
Speaker 1: came out of the bullpenny pitch five innings that gave
Speaker 1: up nothing, but he didn't pitch in the first inning, right,
Speaker 1: So before that four innings, nine runs versus the Rockies
Speaker 1: three and a third, three runs, three and a third
Speaker 1: seven runs, one good game and three innings four runs.
Speaker 1: So he's giving up a mass amount of runs early
Speaker 1: in his ours and he's not going to deep and
Speaker 1: they're trying to get something out of him, but they can't.
Speaker 1: So now they're trying to figure out how to find
Speaker 1: success for this kid. And honestly, sometimes you just rushed
Speaker 1: them to the big leagues too early. And I think
Speaker 1: this might be a case with him second worst pitcher
Speaker 1: thus far this year in first innings and this is
Speaker 1: a live looking now to the San Francisco Giants talks
Speaker 1: with Derrick Collins once again, Derek, you have an injury. No,
Speaker 1: I don't, Derek knows, seriously, you have an injury. You're
Speaker 1: going on the Tende deal. No, seriously, I don't. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you are. Derrek Collin then goes to the media and says,
Speaker 1: I have a fake injury. Everybody, the Giants are gaming
Speaker 1: the game, Derrek Collin. First innings. This might have a
Speaker 1: lot to do with the why the Giants were like,
Speaker 1: you have an injury, Derek. Derrek hollind just behind Freddie Peralta.
Speaker 1: Opposing batters four seventy one on base percentage first innings
Speaker 1: against Derrik Collin. Trevor Richards, who we brought up as
Speaker 1: one of the biggest hemorrhagers of money of all US
Speaker 1: starting pitchers thus far this year. Eight starts with the Marlins.
Speaker 1: The Marlins are O and eight. In those starts, he's
Speaker 1: down eight units because they were dog and all of them, well,
Speaker 1: he's not helping himself. In the first innings. Opposing batters
Speaker 1: four thirty nine on base percentage first innings. You know
Speaker 1: who's fourth. Corey Kluber. Yeah, Corey Cluber, who obviously uh
Speaker 1: is now not pitching because of the line drive that
Speaker 1: fractured his arm. But Corey Kluber terrible start this year
Speaker 1: and started games was bad. Four thirty two opposing on
Speaker 1: base average against Clueber first innings thus far this year.
Speaker 1: So Peralta, who is not only the highest in on
Speaker 1: base average, but he's also the highest and slugging percentage
Speaker 1: batting average Homer's Ribby's posing teams have fifteen RBIs against
Speaker 1: which his first innings alone. Um, that's Peralta, Holland, Richards,
Speaker 1: and Cluber. Again, just some names to remember as you
Speaker 1: handicapped baseball slatesia every day. That explains his when he
Speaker 1: gave up the home run last night, the two on
Speaker 1: the homer that tied the game. That explains why he
Speaker 1: reacted the way he did. Peralta. Yeah, I'm just picturing
Speaker 1: what he did and stuff, and she's just had it.
Speaker 1: Here's here's the flip side of the Actually, no, that
Speaker 1: was Jeffreys. I take that back, Jeffrey Jeffries home run.
Speaker 1: Here's the flip side of that. These are starting pitchers,
Speaker 1: minimum thirty plate appearances faced first innings thus far this year.
Speaker 1: These a proprietary here on a numbers game at Visa.
Speaker 1: Cole Hamile's our old friend, Cole Hamiles, best first inning
Speaker 1: pitcher thus far in baseball this year. Opponent's opponents slash
Speaker 1: line against Cole Hamile's just first innings alone zero seventy
Speaker 1: seven batting average, one seventy two, on base slugging percentage
Speaker 1: eight k's three walks. He's just been great in the
Speaker 1: first innings. Harmon Marquez, who we brought up earlier for
Speaker 1: the Rockies. Everything he did the last stretch of last season,
Speaker 1: he has just carried over first innings. He's the second
Speaker 1: best pitcher in baseball in terms of not necessarily again
Speaker 1: with with the betting step, but we're talking about just
Speaker 1: his raw stats. On base average allowed first innings Marquees
Speaker 1: second to Cole Hamiles one seventy two. Mart Marquez just
Speaker 1: at allowing a one eight eight on base against first innings.
Speaker 1: Chris Sale. For all of his troubles Josh Chris Sale
Speaker 1: at one four in the first innings against, so first
Speaker 1: innings have not been his issue. And you know who
Speaker 1: he's tied with an on base average against Ryan Stannic
Speaker 1: of the Rays. Well, who's giving up runs? I think
Speaker 1: once and ten outings or something. Yeah? Who? Of course
Speaker 1: is a a relief picture that is being used as
Speaker 1: an opener. Right, So that so now I know you
Speaker 1: hated this last year, but can you give the race
Speaker 1: some dap that this like makes sense for them on
Speaker 1: some level? Then? Yeah, but you saw what happened when
Speaker 1: Blake's now got hurt, right, They didn't have enough starting rotation. Um,
Speaker 1: so they went into a skin when winning games. They
Speaker 1: started to lose when Blake went out because they didn't
Speaker 1: have enough starters to do their jobs. So on one hand, yeah,
Speaker 1: it works when they have the right and the right
Speaker 1: amount and the right starting pictures, but when they lose somebody,
Speaker 1: it puts them in a very bad position. Let me
Speaker 1: just give them the best list to get at Hamil's
Speaker 1: Marquees Sale, Stanic Flarity, Snell Strasburg, Robbie Ray. The analytics
Speaker 1: folk love Robbie Ray, who might be the good version
Speaker 1: of Robbie Ray this year. Those are the best first
Speaker 1: inning in terms of all based average lot So again, um,
Speaker 1: those are just some It's just food for thought from
Speaker 1: a team perspective and also from a starting picture perspective
Speaker 1: on what they give up, what they prevent, what they
Speaker 1: don't prevent. In terms of first innings, if you're betting
Speaker 1: first innings, not necessarily how I bet them, but a
Speaker 1: lot of folks like to bet them this way. What
Speaker 1: is sustainable? What is not? The rays are not. Ladies
Speaker 1: and gentlemen, just telling you that right now,