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Speaker 1: Or welcome in. Lake Kick is live.

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Speaker 2: It is Thursday night, October first, Yes, the year Wharler

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, new month, same format, though, got a lot

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Speaker 2: to get to tonight. We are jam packed. Before we

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Speaker 2: go off the air, our five best bets affectionately known

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Speaker 2: around these parts as the Ram and Noodle Express, will

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Speaker 2: be delivered to you in full. I know we do

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Speaker 2: five normally, but I would give me a follow on

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Speaker 2: Twitter because I don't know that we're done at five

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Speaker 2: at late kick Josh, just a little word to the

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Speaker 2: whys there if you consider following me? Why is of

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Speaker 2: course full week five thoughts tonight. We've got a number

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Speaker 2: of games we're gonna bounce around too. We've already done

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Speaker 2: a couple of big prediction specials on the Tuesday Night show,

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Speaker 2: so if you've missed those Auburn and Georgia, which we're

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Speaker 2: going to retouch on in the second A and M Alabama,

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Speaker 2: you can find those videos on the twenty four to

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Speaker 2: seven Sports YouTube channel. Nick Saban's got a crazy October

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Speaker 2: coming up. I don't think people quite realize how crazy

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Speaker 2: it's going to be. I'm going to discuss that in

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Speaker 2: just a second. Also, I've been begging you and you've

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Speaker 2: been delivering every time, so common sense tells me I

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Speaker 2: should beg again. We're getting close to thirty thousand subscriptions

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Speaker 2: here on the twenty four seven Sports YouTube channel and

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Speaker 2: what were we at column like six a couple of

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Speaker 2: months ago, So yeah, doing pretty good here, building momentum.

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Speaker 2: As they say, While I don't believe in it as

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Speaker 2: much as you do in sports, I do believe in

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Speaker 2: it when it comes to YouTube metrics. So if you

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Speaker 2: haven't already subscribed to the channel and then click the

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Speaker 2: bell for notifications, do the same.

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Speaker 1: On the podcast side as well.

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Speaker 2: We released a brand new Late Kick Extra podcast today

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Speaker 2: and I had a lot of stuff, a lot of

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Speaker 2: fun stuff to talk about this morning. So again, follow

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Speaker 2: me on Twitter at Late Kick Josh. We've had a

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Speaker 2: lot going on there. A lot goes on when we're

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Speaker 2: not on the air that I talk about. There, an

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Speaker 2: occasional bet or two. In fact, I put another one

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Speaker 2: out today ahead of the show. If you've followed me

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Speaker 2: on Twitter, you already got it. If you haven't, now

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Speaker 2: you'll get in just a second. So let's get it

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Speaker 2: started here and let's talk about a number of things tonight.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to kick it off. I believe Colin, we're

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Speaker 2: talking about aubrange. What are we talking about to begin with?

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Speaker 2: Actually I had my rundown all screwed up. All right,

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Speaker 2: I see what we're talking about now.

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Speaker 1: So we have got a number of what I would call.

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Speaker 2: High profile games this weekend, but they are high profile

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Speaker 2: games with double digit point spreads, and so you look

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Speaker 2: at it just kind of like we did last week,

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Speaker 2: to be honest, and I wanted to scan it and say,

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Speaker 2: where could the upsets bee? What would it take? Do

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Speaker 2: we expect any of them? Do our in house numbers

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Speaker 2: identify a couple of games that we should keep our

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Speaker 2: eye on. So let's just kind of scan the country

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Speaker 2: here and let's talk about a number of them. And

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Speaker 2: the one that I wanted to start off with was

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Speaker 2: A and m Bama. Because we already did a breakdown

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Speaker 2: on this one. This line's sitting at Alabama minus eighteen.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to clarify my thoughts a little bit. That's

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Speaker 2: why I want to lead with this game. So when

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Speaker 2: we did the game preview, I indicated that I didn't

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Speaker 2: see very I saw a very narrow path, if any path.

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Speaker 2: Let me put it that way for Jimbo Fisher and

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Speaker 2: the Aggies, well, a lot of you took that to

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Speaker 2: mean that, well, I think they're terrible.

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Speaker 1: They're not terrible at all. This is a really good team.

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Speaker 2: I was on radio in upstate South Carolina today and

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Speaker 2: I was talking with Mark Ryan up there about how

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Speaker 2: impressive Texas.

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Speaker 1: A and M looks.

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Speaker 2: I saw them in person, I think twice last year,

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Speaker 2: the Clemson game in the Alabama game from field level,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think folks fully understand if you haven't

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Speaker 2: seen that team in person, how physically impressive they look.

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Speaker 1: They look like Alabama, they look like Clemson.

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Speaker 2: In fact, last year, if I were to put generic

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Speaker 2: uniforms on those two teams, A and M's more physically

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Speaker 2: impressive looking the Clemson is.

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Speaker 1: And so that's a.

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Speaker 2: Mystery to people because they don't play like it because

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Speaker 2: the one limitation they've had has been quarterback. And Kellen

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Speaker 2: Mond's the quarterback there, and he just is who he is.

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Speaker 2: And so when I tell you that I don't see

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Speaker 2: a path, it's just because I think he's had his

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Speaker 2: head pressed firmly against the ceiling of what he is

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Speaker 2: capable of, and that offense has maxed out its potential

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Speaker 2: in its current state, it's not getting any better.

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Speaker 1: This is not a team in all likelihood that's going to.

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Speaker 2: Spring some massive upset on Alabama or or show the

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Speaker 2: Tide anything that they haven't already seen and they're not

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Speaker 2: prepared for. They play Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss nex week,

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Speaker 2: for example, I'd be infinitely more terrified of Old Miss

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Speaker 2: than I would be of Texas A and M, even

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Speaker 2: though A and M's got a far superior roster to

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Speaker 2: Old Miss. So now that the clarifications out of the way,

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Speaker 2: I just wanted to say, there is one player that

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Speaker 2: I didn't mention the other night that I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: looking at in this game. He didn't play last week,

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Speaker 2: and he was my pick to be one of these

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Speaker 2: standout players in this conference this year, and that's Christian Barmore.

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Speaker 2: He was not in action last week for Alabama. He

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Speaker 2: figures to be this week. So let's just keep an

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Speaker 2: eye on him because that's a guy that's an impact

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Speaker 2: disruptor up front that they can't really duplicate. They need

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Speaker 2: that guy to shine if they're going to maximize their

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Speaker 2: defensive potential in this game and this year, we like

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Speaker 2: Alabama to win. We lean slightly Alabama to cover. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to Florida. South Carolina is an eighteen to seventeen

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Speaker 2: point dog, depending on where you look on the road

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Speaker 2: in Gainesville. There was a big reaction I think here

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Speaker 2: last week. If this were the opener, I think Florida

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Speaker 2: would be about a two touchdown favorite. Florida rolled last week,

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Speaker 2: South Carolina didn't. This thing's already up to eighteen seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half. Like I said, depending on where you look.

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Speaker 2: Here's the problem. If we're trying to map out the

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Speaker 2: upset potential, here a couple of them. There's not just one,

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Speaker 2: but a couple of problems South Carolina offensively, anytime you're

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Speaker 2: gonna make it happen, you want to control the game. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: they don't have a superior roster to Florida, they don't

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Speaker 2: have a comparable roster to Florida, and that Florida offense

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Speaker 2: has already shown what it can do. So what you

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Speaker 2: want to do is, obviously you'd love to keep the

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Speaker 2: Gators offense off the field.

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Speaker 1: How do you do that?

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Speaker 2: Well, you control clock, and you move the chains on

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Speaker 2: third down, and you do a lot of things on

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Speaker 2: the ground that quite frankly, I don't think South Carolina

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Speaker 2: is capable of. And that is the problem, friends, because

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Speaker 2: I think it's far more likely that you see a

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Speaker 2: bunch of three and ounce or shortened drives from Carolina

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Speaker 2: than it is you see a bunch of ten plus

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Speaker 2: play drives, which would be part of obviously the formula

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Speaker 2: to try and pull an upset here. And the second

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Speaker 2: part is do they have the edge rush capability or

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Speaker 2: I guess capability on the interior to pressure Kyle trask Enough,

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Speaker 2: A lot of these answers are at best, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: At worst, they are nos. And so that's why when

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Speaker 2: I looked at this number, it's a do up kind

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Speaker 2: of do or die to be honest with your situation

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Speaker 2: for South Carolina coming off last week. And it's also

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Speaker 2: a due downspot emotionally for Florida coming off the big win.

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Speaker 2: And so I looked at the number before I dove

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Speaker 2: into it and said, you know, I bet we lean

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Speaker 2: South Carolina and the points we don't.

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Speaker 1: We got it.

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Speaker 2: We think the number's right. We got Florida, I think

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Speaker 2: minus eighteen and a half. So we think the numbers right.

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Speaker 2: In other words, so we don't really have a lean

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Speaker 2: on that one either way. We certainly do not see

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Speaker 2: any big red alarm bells or lights, as the case

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Speaker 2: may be, shining for that game. How about Missouri at Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: This one has confounded us a little bit this week.

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Speaker 1: To be honest.

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Speaker 2: We jumped on Missouri as our best bet of the week.

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Speaker 2: We maintain that stance, by the way, but we got

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Speaker 2: them at ten and a half the other night. I

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Speaker 2: thinks twelve and a half now, so we had the

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Speaker 2: line move against us.

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Speaker 1: It's okay. Happened last week too, and we turned out

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Speaker 1: all right. There. Tight game. We expect a very tight

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Speaker 1: game here.

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Speaker 2: To give you an idea of what we expect, we've

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Speaker 2: got Tennessee winning by under a touchdown, So we're across

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Speaker 2: several key numbers there. That's why we like Missouri. Missouri

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Speaker 2: has very good safeties on this team.

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Speaker 1: Now. Here's why that matters.

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Speaker 2: Aside from the obvious Tennessee will need to sustain drives

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Speaker 2: obviously here, and they did a very poor job of

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Speaker 2: that last week.

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Speaker 1: They were one of twelve on third down. The safety

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Speaker 1: play at.

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Speaker 2: Missouri, in all likelihood, combined with the conservative play calling

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Speaker 2: nature of Tennessee is unlikely to yield a bunch of

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Speaker 2: explosive plays through the air, twenty plus yard pass plays,

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Speaker 2: probably not seeing a ton of those. And so the

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Speaker 2: counterpoint is, all right, Tennessee will still be able to

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Speaker 2: move the ball. They got the superior offensive line, but

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Speaker 2: they'll need to do it instead of in chunks. They'll

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Speaker 2: need to do it more methodically. That's cool if you

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Speaker 2: can do it. One two on third down last week

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Speaker 2: indicates maybe a problem there potentially, And so not only that,

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Speaker 2: we have the scheduling dynamic in place here too. Of

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Speaker 2: coming off a pretty emotional, last quarter, last minute sort

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Speaker 2: of win last week, and you know, you've got the

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Speaker 2: trip to Georgia on deck, and in comes a very

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Speaker 2: anonymous Missouri team. I'm not picking Tennessee to lose this game.

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Speaker 2: I am picking them to win a single digit sort

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Speaker 2: of game because I think Jeremy Prout would be more

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Speaker 2: than happy to win this thing by eight points.

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Speaker 1: Missouri was not.

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Speaker 2: Also, I just want to point this out now, you

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Speaker 2: would think Tennessee, you got a couple of power backs here,

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Speaker 2: you got the power offensive line, you can lean on

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Speaker 2: that ground game.

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Speaker 1: Hey, I describe Alabama as that or better.

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Speaker 2: And Alabama had some success on the ground last week,

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Speaker 2: not a ton of it, and I don't necessarily think

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Speaker 2: it was an Alabama problem. I just don't think Missouri

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Speaker 2: is that bad. I really think the team's underrated as

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Speaker 2: a whole.

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Speaker 1: So I was.

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Speaker 2: I came out of that game last week impressed with Alabama,

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Speaker 2: came away a little more impressed with Missouri than I

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Speaker 2: thought I would too. Let's go to the big twelve.

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Speaker 2: TCU is at Texas. Texas is an eleven and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorite. That's down from about thirteen twenty four

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Speaker 2: to forty eight hours ago.

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Speaker 1: TCU.

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Speaker 2: This is a stat you've probably heard thrown around by

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Speaker 2: this point this week. Five of their last six against Texas.

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Speaker 2: I don't care how much he sweats. Gary Patterson gets

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Speaker 2: the job done. I unlike a lot of you that

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Speaker 2: I've seen out there tossing predictions around, do not expect

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Speaker 2: a great, big, forty eight to forty one type shootout here.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit lower scoring than that.

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Speaker 2: This is a green TCU offensive line now, as is

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Speaker 2: the case with Auburn, and we're going to talk about

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Speaker 2: the Tigers a little bit later. A lot of times

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Speaker 2: people sort of confuse inexperience with weakness. That's not always

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Speaker 2: the case, just like experience is not always a strength.

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Speaker 2: Just because you've got some unknowns doesn't mean it's a weakness. However,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of experience on a lot of depth

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Speaker 2: on the interior of this Texas defensive line. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know if you saw the final score last week,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't exactly the most sterling performance in the

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Speaker 2: history of Texas defensive football. You've got to imagine that

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Speaker 2: a premium being placed there this week. Think they can

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Speaker 2: have some success against that TCU offensive line. You got

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Speaker 2: the better quarterback situation. Even if they roll with Duggan

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Speaker 2: all game this week. The TCU Hornfrog's there. Even if

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Speaker 2: they do, you got the edgeit quarterback at Texas. I

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Speaker 2: can't make much sense of the number. But then again,

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Speaker 2: I looked at our numbers, and our numbers like Texas

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Speaker 2: even bigger than the Vegas line does. I have no

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Speaker 2: confidence in that. Sometimes I have confidence in our numbers.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes I look at our numbers and I say, all right,

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Speaker 2: well you're drunk clearly, so we're gonna move on. There

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Speaker 2: are other games out there for us, and that's exactly

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Speaker 2: what I told our model about this game. I don't

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Speaker 2: know what you're on, but Texas minus nineteen, I think

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Speaker 2: we had you have fun with that. If you feel

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Speaker 2: like layam nineteen points with this team, or nine for

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Speaker 2: that matter, you have fun with that. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: follow you, so I expect Actually, I have no clue

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Speaker 2: what to expect here. I'delean Texas, but I have no

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Speaker 2: clue what to expect Arkansas Mississippi State kind of the

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Speaker 2: last game I wanted to touch on here before we

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Speaker 2: moved to Auburn, Georgiaissippi State.

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Speaker 1: It's a seventeen point favorite this week.

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Speaker 2: Did you know that you probably do if you've looked

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Speaker 2: at this stuff instinct versus eyes. Big battle internally for

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Speaker 2: me going on this week. Instinct would have you look

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Speaker 2: at Mississippi State last week and have them bomb away

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Speaker 2: on LSU in a manner in which I think will

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Speaker 2: be irregular to what they're able to do and what

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Speaker 2: defenses allow them to do the rest of the year,

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Speaker 2: and you would obviously know it's probably the biggest emotional

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Speaker 2: moment that you've had at Mississippi State since like twenty

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Speaker 2: fourteen when they were number one in the country. So

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Speaker 2: you have all that, and then you have an Arkansas

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Speaker 2: team that held Georgia in check for a half last

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Speaker 2: week and just a big number and inflated number. You

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Speaker 2: spect sort of a back to earth moment from Mississippi State. Well,

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Speaker 2: that's what instinct tells you, independent of who the teams are.

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Speaker 2: But then you use your eyeballs and you see that

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Speaker 2: even though you don't have a bunch of in all

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Speaker 2: likelihood first round talent at wide receiver from Mississippi State,

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Speaker 2: I think they pretty well convinced.

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Speaker 1: You they don't need it last week.

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Speaker 2: And I'll tell you what I know you don't have

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Speaker 2: at Arkansas, and that's a lot of first round potential

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Speaker 2: and elite speed in the secondary, and that, friends, could

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Speaker 2: be a problem.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they have the athletes defensively.

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Speaker 2: And in fact, I'll go as far as to agree

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Speaker 2: with some Arkansas fans I saw talking today over on

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Speaker 2: the Arkansas twenty four to seven message board. I saw

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Speaker 2: some of you say something that I think I agree with.

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Speaker 2: It sounds crazy, but I think I agree with you

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Speaker 2: when you said I actually think Georgia was a better

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Speaker 2: matchup for US than Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: I agree our numbers like Arkansas in this thing.

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Speaker 2: We've got Mississippi State by about eleven, so I think

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Speaker 2: seventeen points too much. I am not going to pull

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Speaker 2: the trigger on this one as one of our five

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Speaker 2: official plays. I lean Arkansas to cover, not very confidently, though,

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Speaker 2: I do think there is a reasonable chance that the

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Speaker 2: under is a wise play here doesn't qualify as an

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Speaker 2: official for US, but I think it's at sixty nine

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Speaker 2: right now. Bud's on the over. Bud got it like

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Speaker 2: sixty three sixty four. He's really good at jumping those totals.

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Speaker 2: So hey, let's get a nice sixty six sixty seven

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Speaker 2: middle there, so we both look smart. But those are

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Speaker 2: the games that we're looking at this week, and those

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Speaker 2: aren't necessarily our spotlight games. But boy do we have

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Speaker 2: one to talk about here. Man, how irresponsible. I got

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Speaker 2: my papers all out of whack. So let's move it on.

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Speaker 2: Auburn Georgia. Is you know, I would call it probably

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest early season games I can remember

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Speaker 2: in the SEC in quite a while. This is one

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Speaker 2: that is normally put well towards the end of the calendar. Now,

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Speaker 2: it was already going to move up anyway on the

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Speaker 2: calendar this year, but it really moved up. Auburn is

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Speaker 2: currently anywhere from seven to a six and a half

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Speaker 2: to a six point dog. That thing's kind of been

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Speaker 2: moving this week on the road in Athens. I don't

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Speaker 2: know that those three words on the road. I don't

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Speaker 2: know that it carries as much weight this year. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I think I know it doesn't. This is such a

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Speaker 2: huge game, though, I don't think we can overstate the

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Speaker 2: importance of this. As I pointed out the other night,

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Speaker 2: and the folks at Auburn understand this, I don't think

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Speaker 2: the rest of the country really grasps how big this

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Speaker 2: is for Auburn. Everyone thinks it's a big game for Georgia.

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Speaker 2: It's huge for Auburn if they win this game, and

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Speaker 2: like I said, they're a short underdog. If they win

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Speaker 2: this game, they will probably be favored in every game

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Speaker 2: until the Iron Bowl, that is, the last week of November.

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Speaker 1: That's how far away that is. So Georgia.

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Speaker 2: The reason that we pick up, the reason we lean

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Speaker 2: Georgia and we picked them the other night to win

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Speaker 2: a close game is as long as they can keep

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Speaker 2: this thing.

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Speaker 1: Even or plus in the turnover battle.

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Speaker 2: I have a tough time seeing Auburn able to overcome

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Speaker 2: a lot of the obstacles we're about to talk about. However,

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Speaker 2: if that turnover battle get sideways, anyone's game here.

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Speaker 1: I already think it's going to be a DOGFI.

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Speaker 2: But if that turnover battle leans against Georgia, truly anyone's game.

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Speaker 2: So there's a big back and forth right now amongst

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Speaker 2: Georgia fans of who's going to start at quarterback? Who

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Speaker 2: should start at quarterback? Dwan Mathis got the start last week.

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Speaker 2: It was an unmitigated disaster in the first half. They

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Speaker 2: trailed seven to five at the half against the Arkansas Razorbacks.

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Speaker 2: Couldn't run the ball and throw the ball, couldn't do anything.

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Speaker 2: And so this week JT. Daniels gets cleared. Is he

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Speaker 2: going to be the guy Stetson Bennett saved you last week?

340
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Speaker 2: Is he going to be the guy? Does Dwan Mathis

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Speaker 2: get another chance? I don't think anyone really knows for sure,

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Speaker 2: outside of maybe Kirby Smart. Let me just give you

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Speaker 2: my best educated guess on this. I don't claim to

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Speaker 2: have any inside information on this. This week, there is

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Speaker 2: no inside information to really be had on this.

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Speaker 1: This week.

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Speaker 2: If there is, I can tell you Rusty and Kip

348
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Speaker 2: and Jake and the guy's over at Dogs twenty four

349
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Speaker 2: to seven will have it. But the way that I

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Speaker 2: see it is, this is not the Citadel or Charleston

351
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Speaker 2: Southern coming into town. You can talk all you want

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Speaker 2: to about how Dwan Mathis is going to get another shot, Okay, listen,

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Speaker 2: I don't doubt that, But what I'm telling you is

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Speaker 2: there's a big difference in eventually getting reps somewhere, having

355
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Speaker 2: a specific package installed for you, versus being the guy.

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Speaker 2: There is no way that that Georgia coaching staff looks

357
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Speaker 2: at Dwan Mathis after the end game he showed him

358
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Speaker 2: last week and says, this is our guy for this

359
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Speaker 2: pivotal SEC Division game or a well conference game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's they all count against Auburn, no way.

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Speaker 2: What Kirby Smart's looking for here is a guy who

362
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Speaker 2: knows his offense, a guy who has the full trust

363
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Speaker 2: of that roster and that coaching staff, enough mobility so

364
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Speaker 2: you're not a statue back there. Pass protection I think

365
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 2: is still going to be an issue early on for

366
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Speaker 2: this offensive line, and a good decision maker, and there's

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Speaker 2: only one guy on this roster right now that I

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Speaker 2: think fits all four of those categories, and his name

369
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Speaker 2: is Stetson Bennett. This time last month he was running

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Speaker 2: with the fours. Listen, things have shaken out the way

371
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Speaker 2: they are. You can't worry about that. That's the guy

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Speaker 2: who I think gives them the best chance to win

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Speaker 2: right now. That's the guy I think Kirby Smart will

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Speaker 2: roll with Saturday. And I'm going to tell you why.

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Speaker 2: Kirby Smart. Don't care who he hired a coordinator, don't

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Speaker 2: care what all the talk was in the offseason. Like

377
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Speaker 2: I said, that's out the window. It's time to win now.

378
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Speaker 2: See a lot of people I think are slipping in

379
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 2: the mentality of who gives us the best chance long term.

380
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Speaker 2: Kirby Smart's not thinking long term. Man, He's got Auburn Saturday.

381
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Speaker 2: They got to win against Auburn Saturday. It's not who

382
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Speaker 2: sets him up best two months from now, who can

383
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Speaker 2: win Saturday, Because if you can't win now, it doesn't.

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Speaker 1: Really matter much.

385
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Speaker 2: Two months from now, stets And Bennett, I think, will

386
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 2: be that guy, and I think he will get a

387
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Speaker 2: vast majority of the snaps Saturday. I try not to

388
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Speaker 2: live on the fringes here. Okay, I try and be real.

389
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Speaker 2: I've taken some criticism that, to be honest with you,

390
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,199
Speaker 2: have surprised me a little bit this week in my

391
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Speaker 2: opinion about Stetson Bennett. I think the ceiling is very

392
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Speaker 2: low on this offense with Stetson Bennett quarterback. So a

393
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Speaker 2: lot of you have taken that to indicate I'm impugning

394
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Speaker 2: that kid's integrity or his character or whatnot. Man, he

395
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Speaker 2: gets a ten across the board in those categories for me.

396
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Speaker 2: But let me tell you something. I think Colin's a

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Speaker 2: really good guy. I think he's an angel walking amongst

398
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Speaker 2: us here on Earth. I'm not starting him for Georgia Saturday.

399
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,920
Speaker 2: I think I'm pretty decent most of the time. I'm

400
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 2: not starting for Georgia Saturday. Conversely, there are a lot

401
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,879
Speaker 2: of dudes out there who are trapped off the field

402
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 2: who I'd love to start. For me at quarterback, it's

403
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,359
Speaker 2: about winning. Who gives you the best chance to win.

404
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:08,439
Speaker 2: I don't care about all the other stuff. Okay, you

405
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 2: can run pta meetings if you're a great person. I

406
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,920
Speaker 2: need the best talent. I need the best collection of

407
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 2: those skills to win at quarterback. Now, while I still

408
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 2: think that stets in Bennett for Georgia, I'm telling you

409
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 2: I think the ceiling's much lower on this team.

410
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,640
Speaker 1: And I've just been real with you. I don't live

411
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:23,360
Speaker 1: on the fringes.

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Speaker 2: Okay, the fringe like the one time out of one

413
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 2: hundred is he could go out and throw four touchdown Saturday.

414
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 2: The other fringes he could turn the ball over five times.

415
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 2: Let's exclude those one out of one hundreds and let's

416
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Speaker 2: focus on what is most likely to happen. What's most

417
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: likely to happen is hopefully he gives you a good

418
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 2: enough performance and they're able to squeak out between sixteen

419
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 2: and twenty three points offensively, and that defense does what

420
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 2: it does. That's the formula right now until further notice,

421
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 2: to win for Georgia and any of you guys that

422
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,639
Speaker 2: are runner the misguided notion that this dude who was

423
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Speaker 2: running with the four is a month ago is about

424
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 2: to march anybody up and down the field. And I

425
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 2: have had people telling me this, By the way, on

426
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,479
Speaker 2: the second half against Arkansas last week, I think you're

427
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 2: kidding yourself.

428
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 1: You got it right to an opinion. As much as

429
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 1: I do, I think you're.

430
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,160
Speaker 2: Kidding yourself on that, So be real clear. You can

431
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 2: be a great person, you can be a program staple.

432
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 2: You can be a hard worker and still be very limited,

433
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 2: and I think ultimately that's what Georgia will be with

434
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Speaker 2: Stetson Bennett there. Luckily you got a guy with probably

435
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,959
Speaker 2: more elite physical tools in JT. Daniels that is cleared

436
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 2: now and hopefully will work himself into being the prime

437
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 2: guy for that spot. Just don't know that he fits

438
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,679
Speaker 2: that description this week. The focus, though, to me, as

439
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,120
Speaker 2: much as we just talked about it, is not solely

440
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 2: on quarterback for Georgia. It's that run game and I

441
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 2: think a lot of the Bulldog faithful up there. No,

442
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:47,239
Speaker 2: it's that run game, offensive line, running backs. Here, the

443
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,280
Speaker 2: edge along both lines of scrimmage probably belonged to the defenses.

444
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 2: In fact, I would go pretty certainly belong to the defenses.

445
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 2: Told you the other day our primary reason for picking

446
00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 2: Georgia was the inexperience, therefore the unknown along that Auburn

447
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 2: offensive front versus Georgia's defense. Now, consider what this means

448
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 2: for the Auburn offense. Consider the opportunity here. We always

449
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 2: remind you on this show. There's a big difference. As

450
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: we just said in the TCU Texas preview, there's a

451
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 2: big difference between inexperience and weakness just at this level. Now,

452
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 2: if we're talking about Purdue, not to not Purdue, but

453
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 2: rarely is perdue marching out first year starters on the

454
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 2: offensive line that can.

455
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: Play at a high level.

456
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 2: At Auburn, at Georgia, at Alabama, it could happen there

457
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 2: because they recruit and they develop at a high enough level.

458
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 2: So we've got a lot of guys we don't know

459
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 2: a whole lot about it. Auburn doesn't automatically mean their

460
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 2: weaknesses though, So big opportunity for Auburn's offensive line Saturday,

461
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,239
Speaker 2: because if they force a stalemate even I mean, if

462
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 2: it's just a draw in that battle against Auburn's offensive

463
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: line versus that Georgia defensive front, if you told me that,

464
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,199
Speaker 2: I'd lean Auburn in a heartbeat, I don't believe that.

465
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: I believe Georgia's defense has a pretty significant edge there.

466
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 2: So we assume, or I assume at least big plays

467
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: are not winning this game. But if we can get

468
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 2: a little bit more out of that Auburn offensive line

469
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 2: than we expected. I can assure you Gus Malson and

470
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 2: Chad Morris plan on being more aggressive on early downs

471
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 2: and in the early portion of this game than they

472
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 2: were last year when they were shut out for a

473
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 2: vast majority of this game and then only when they

474
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 2: kicked it into two minute mode late.

475
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,479
Speaker 1: Got back in it.

476
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 2: And that was a boy, that was a weird final

477
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 2: score because it was domination on Georgia's part for most

478
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 2: of that game and then you look in a it's

479
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 2: a one possession game and that kind of happened for

480
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 2: Georgia a lot last year. So again we leaned Georgia.

481
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 2: We leaned Georgia close so much to watch and such

482
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 2: an exciting game in the early portion of the SEC season. Here,

483
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 2: all right, we kind of already talked about Texas A

484
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 2: and M in Alabama, and we kind of already gave

485
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: you our preview.

486
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: We gave you the preview the.

487
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 2: Other day in long form, and you can find that

488
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: on the channel still if you haven't already seen it.

489
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 2: But I did want to do something for you kind

490
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,719
Speaker 2: of give you a little peek ahead here at what

491
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: we'll be talking about a lot this month.

492
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: Nick Saban's got a Crazy October coming up.

493
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 2: Okay, I think it's kind of a waste actually to

494
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 2: use this title as just a random segment on a

495
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 2: random show. Saban's October sounds like a Broadway play. I

496
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 2: think it should be like a number one country song.

497
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: Saban's October sounds great.

498
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 1: But be that as it may.

499
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 2: We're using it on Late Kate cause no one's trademarket before.

500
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: Think about this, very few of us will ever be

501
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 2: as successful in any walk of life as Nick Saban

502
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: has been coaching college football.

503
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: Imagine this.

504
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:41,199
Speaker 2: Imagine you are so good, you have so become the

505
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 2: standard in your line of work that you have created

506
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 2: your own competition. That's what this man has done. He

507
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 2: is responsible for the existence of his own competition. Not

508
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 2: over the next one week will he face a former

509
00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 2: assistant of his. The entire month of October will consist

510
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 2: of Nick Saban. Next four weeks will consist of him

511
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 2: facing old assistant coaches. He's got Jimbo this week, He's

512
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 2: got Lane Kiffin the week after that, he's got Kirby

513
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 2: Smart the week after that, and then he's got Jeremy

514
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: Prue the week after that. Has it ever happened? I

515
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 2: don't know if it's ever happened. So Football Scoop kind

516
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: of has a running update on this. Every time Nick

517
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 2: Saban faces one of his former assistants, he's got sixteen

518
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 2: of them that he's now faced as a head coach.

519
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 2: Sixteen have become head coaches. Let me put it like that,

520
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: he's faced former assistants nineteen times in total, nineteen and oh,

521
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: perfect record. We'll see if he extends it to twenty

522
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 2: three and over the next month, the average score in

523
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 2: those games has been forty one to fifteen. So I

524
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: got to thinking, Okay, no one ever thought Jim McLaine

525
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 2: was going to beat Nick Saban, but you may think

526
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 2: Kirby Smart's going to beat him. You may think that

527
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin could sneak around and pop him. So I

528
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: dug into our numbers, and I wonder, over the next month.

529
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 2: I just mentioned the four games that he's going to

530
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 2: play A and m Ole Miss Georgia Tennessee next four weeks.

531
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 2: What would our numbers indicate on these games. So I

532
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 2: didn't send this to Colin because it would have taken

533
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 2: forever to make all these graphics.

534
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 1: And we'll end up making them anyway.

535
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: This week to remind you Bama's seventeen to eighteen point favorite,

536
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 2: we have Bama minus nineteen in our own personal numbers.

537
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 2: Next week at Ole Miss give you a little I

538
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 2: guess sneak peak at what we think about that game,

539
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 2: we have Alabama minus twenty two and a half. The

540
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 2: following week at home against Georgia, we got Bama minus eleven,

541
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: and the week after that at Tennessee, we have Alabama

542
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: minus twenty. Keep in mind, schedule and situational dynamics are

543
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,959
Speaker 2: taken into account in those numbers. So these four kind

544
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: of feel different to me. I gotta be honest with you.

545
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 2: Jimbo has already been established. So what I mean by

546
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 2: these feel different is I feel like these are four

547
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 2: guys who would have been head coaches anyway.

548
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: Obviously it greatly helps that they.

549
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 2: Were associated with Nick Saban, but feel like they are

550
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: stand alone or have the potential to be stand alone.

551
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: At this point, I know you'd probably pushed back on

552
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 2: Jeremy Pewitt right now. I happen to have a very

553
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 2: high opinion of the ceiling of Jeremy prew It's a

554
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: program there. So Jimbo's already well established. Kirby's obviously built

555
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: Georgia's roster up to where it's one of, if not

556
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 2: the very best in college football. Jeremy Prewitt is rapidly

557
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 2: overturning the roster at Tennessee, probably a lot quicker than

558
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: you guys realize, or a lot of you guys realize.

559
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 2: Kiffin just terrifies everyone in general. One of the great

560
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 2: offensive minds in the sport. For all the baggage, for

561
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: lack of a much better and more applicable term, he

562
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 2: has off the field, everyone keeps hiring him. Why do

563
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 2: they keep hiring him? Think it's pretty obvious. So this

564
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 2: October for Nick Saban, Saban's October Man. It's a great

565
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: book title. Maybe we'll write it one day. It really

566
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 2: sell if we have some upsets coming up. But really

567
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 2: interesting October coming up there for Nick Saban. Just keep

568
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 2: your eye on that, all right. The Romindle Express is

569
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 2: pulling into the station. We are six three and one

570
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 2: on the season right now. We are looking to have

571
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 2: another good week. Feel really good about these games. Now,

572
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 2: what we do is we give you our early best

573
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: bet for the week on Sunday night. We did it

574
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 2: this week. It was Missouri plus ten and a half,

575
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 2: but then at any given point on any given platform

576
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 2: the rest of the week, whether it be Twitter at

577
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: Late Kick Josh. I've released two of them on Twitter

578
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: this week, so be sure to follow me at Late

579
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 2: Kick Josh.

580
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: It could be on the podcast, it could be on

581
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: any one of our Late Kick Live shows.

582
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 2: Eventually we release the rest of the five by this

583
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: very moment in the week. So Colin, without further ado,

584
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 2: let's remind folks what we've already given them, and let's

585
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 2: show the final two. We had Missouri, as I said,

586
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: plus ten and a half. They're on the road versus Tennessee.

587
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 2: North Carolina is actually on the road, so we flip

588
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 2: that backwards. North Carolina is at Boston College. This is

589
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: UNC minus thirteen and a half. Important to get these

590
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 2: numbers when we give them out. Arkansas State minus three

591
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 2: at Coastal Carolina. This one we added earlier today on Twitter.

592
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: It is USF at Cincinnat. We waited for it to

593
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 2: drop to twenty one. It did, and we're taking the

594
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 2: Bearcats at twenty one. We have them winning by twenty

595
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 2: seven and a half. And the final game that we're

596
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: adding right now, Navy is on the road at air Force.

597
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,239
Speaker 2: This is Air Force's first game of the year. We

598
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 2: have had sort of a reverse trend as opposed to

599
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: what we thought. We thought that teams who were playing

600
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: teams who had already played would have a disadvantage.

601
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 1: It's actually turned out the other way.

602
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 2: Teams that haven't played have had a point spread advantage

603
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: on teams that have played. And we're taking the Falcons

604
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 2: air Force plus seven. So in summery, if you're listening

605
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 2: on the podcast, Missouri plus the points that is up

606
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:35,959
Speaker 2: in your twelve and a half. Now if you're betting it,

607
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 2: we got it at ten and a half, UNC minus

608
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half, Arkansas State minus three, Cincinnati minus

609
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 2: twenty one, and Air Force plus seven. Again follow me

610
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: on Twitter. A lot of those get released there, and

611
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 2: I want to add in, yes, these are our five official.

612
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: There are two games out there. It's got to be

613
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 2: real with you that I don't have the number that

614
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 2: I want right now. If that moves, I am releasing

615
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 2: those and we are counting them and you can see

616
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: it on Twitter. I'm not going to put it out

617
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: there three minutes before kickoff, but if we get the

618
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: number we want, when I get home tonight. Sometime tomorrow,

619
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to release that, and you'll know because I'll

620
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 2: put Rama Noodle Express in all caps on Twitter at

621
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: late kick Josh, so follow me there. Thank you so

622
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 2: much for watching us this week. Subscribe to the channel

623
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 2: if you haven't already. We've had a great week of

624
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 2: traffic here. Hope to have a great weekend of games.

625
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: We'll be here with full reaction on Sunday night, eight Eastern,

626
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 2: seventh Central For director Colin for producer Jordan. On the

627
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 2: podcast side of things, I'm Josh Fate. Have a great weekend,

628
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: enjoy the games, and God bless