Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and my single best idea was just
Speaker 2: thank you to all that I saw on the travels
Speaker 2: to Rome who take part in the podcasts, take part
Speaker 2: in YouTube, and really all the new distribution. I completely
Speaker 2: underestimate the power of this new digital distribution, and I'll
Speaker 2: tell you it was something to hear about it in
Speaker 2: Rome and travels thereabouts. One of the great things is
Speaker 2: to come back to a good opinions on the equity markets.
Speaker 2: Gina Martin Adams with Paul Sweeney yesterday and today. We'll
Speaker 2: get to Brian Belski here in a moment, but Mike
Speaker 2: Wilson with us. One of the great features of Wilson,
Speaker 2: like Gina Martin Adams, is you got to be in
Speaker 2: the market. It's nothing, go to cash, do this, do this,
Speaker 2: do this. But here is an interesting idea, Mike Wilson,
Speaker 2: I'm trying to guess out seven years or ten years
Speaker 2: to a set of outcomes a fan distribution.
Speaker 1: I think it depends on how you utilize them. I mean,
Speaker 1: we we do a bull bear base case. We've done
Speaker 1: that for you know, the duration of as long as
Speaker 1: we've had this job and I think every investor does that.
Speaker 1: It's called a risk reward. It's what's my upside, what's
Speaker 1: my downside, and then you basically skew your you know,
Speaker 1: your positioning based on whether you think the downside or
Speaker 1: upside case is more likely, whether we're talking about a
Speaker 1: single stock or the S and P five hundred. So
Speaker 1: it's no different. I don't think that's a unique approach.
Speaker 1: I think that's the way most investors think about how
Speaker 1: to put money to work, and so I think I
Speaker 1: think it works. But I mean doesn't mean you're going
Speaker 1: to be right. That's the That's the thing, like like
Speaker 1: do you do you bet on the bull case or
Speaker 1: you've been on the bear case at any given time,
Speaker 1: depends on how things go out. It is a play
Speaker 1: out the way you think it plays out.
Speaker 2: And part of that on the bull case the bearcase
Speaker 2: is the cash case. That is a modern market timing
Speaker 2: thing that we see here Mike Wilson and trying to
Speaker 2: time the markets.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, there's uh, you know, there's a whole graveyard
Speaker 1: of people of market timers. You know, we we do
Speaker 1: it as part.
Speaker 3: Of our job.
Speaker 1: We have to. We asked, we're asked by clients that
Speaker 1: kind of you know, whether it's the S and P
Speaker 1: five hundred or sectors or stocks. I mean, that's our job,
Speaker 1: and that's it's most you know, asset manager's job is
Speaker 1: to try and time when to buy certain stocks or
Speaker 1: do certain things with their investments. And I mean, look,
Speaker 1: sometimes we get it right, sometimes we get it wrong.
Speaker 1: I would say we had a stretch where I felt
Speaker 1: like we got everything right, and of course that never lasts.
Speaker 1: The good news about investing is you can always change
Speaker 1: your mind, which we've done, and we've you know, raised
Speaker 1: our targets and we've changed our strategy to to deal
Speaker 1: with what the market's giving us. And that's really the
Speaker 1: game is just take what the market gives you. Don't
Speaker 1: fight what the market's telling you. That's the best analyst
Speaker 1: in the world is what the market internals are saying.
Speaker 1: We use it as part of our process, actually, and
Speaker 1: I think that's that's the best way to be is
Speaker 1: just be humble about it, and you know, don't be
Speaker 1: afraid to say, hey, we're wrong. I mean, like I
Speaker 1: think Smador expected to be right all the time, and
Speaker 1: nobody is and being wrong is not a sin. It's
Speaker 1: just you know, staying on the wrong side of things
Speaker 1: for too long is a problem.
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, and then we talked to
Speaker 2: Brian Belski. What a moment there to talk to Michael
Speaker 2: Barr and Brian Belski about the NFL North, the Lions
Speaker 2: big win over the Vikings. It was great. They really
Speaker 2: really dug into that. And of course we look forward
Speaker 2: to Thanksgiving, important holiday. I believe it's Lions Bears will
Speaker 2: be that twelve noon game. That is such a tradition
Speaker 2: for the nation. Another tradition is to try to guess
Speaker 2: a bull market. Brian Belski of Bemo Capital Markets has
Speaker 2: just absolutely nailed the bull call.
Speaker 3: Here Belski on the view forward, I think stay invested.
Speaker 3: I think trying not to time. I think people have
Speaker 3: become so afraid to be wrong, they don't want to
Speaker 3: be right. I think part of this is a function
Speaker 3: of what happened during the tech wreck that was exacerbated
Speaker 3: during the Great Financial Crisis, which created the generational buying
Speaker 3: opportunity in two thousand and nine, when we came out
Speaker 3: with our twenty five year secular BOWLMARKT called twenty ten.
Speaker 3: So we remain resolute on this. We're entering year three
Speaker 3: of the Bowl, and I think you know, going forward,
Speaker 3: our longer term trend has been normalization. We've been talking
Speaker 3: about it for three years.
Speaker 2: Brian Belski. He framed up beautifully. Okay, double digit thirteen twelve,
Speaker 2: fourteen percent returns, maybe not, but then subsiding down to
Speaker 2: some form of low double digit, high single digit world
Speaker 2: for Brian Belski and Demo Capital Market's run on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast growing each and every day. He
Speaker 2: just thrilled with a live chat effort that we've got
Speaker 2: there as well in Apple car Play and Android Hotto.
Speaker 2: Major shot out to people on Spotify. I have underplayed
Speaker 2: this totally. I don't do Spotify full disclosure, but it's
Speaker 2: a huge deal Spotify podcasts, YouTube podcasts, Apple podcasts, which
Speaker 2: is always single best idea