WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Mike Wilson & Brian Belski

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and my single best idea was just

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<v Speaker 2>thank you to all that I saw on the travels

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<v Speaker 2>to Rome who take part in the podcasts, take part

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<v Speaker 2>in YouTube, and really all the new distribution. I completely

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<v Speaker 2>underestimate the power of this new digital distribution, and I'll

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<v Speaker 2>tell you it was something to hear about it in

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<v Speaker 2>Rome and travels thereabouts. One of the great things is

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<v Speaker 2>to come back to a good opinions on the equity markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Gina Martin Adams with Paul Sweeney yesterday and today. We'll

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<v Speaker 2>get to Brian Belski here in a moment, but Mike

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<v Speaker 2>Wilson with us. One of the great features of Wilson,

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<v Speaker 2>like Gina Martin Adams, is you got to be in

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<v Speaker 2>the market. It's nothing, go to cash, do this, do this,

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<v Speaker 2>do this. But here is an interesting idea, Mike Wilson,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to guess out seven years or ten years

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<v Speaker 2>to a set of outcomes a fan distribution.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it depends on how you utilize them. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we we do a bull bear base case. We've done

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<v Speaker 1>that for you know, the duration of as long as

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<v Speaker 1>we've had this job and I think every investor does that.

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<v Speaker 1>It's called a risk reward. It's what's my upside, what's

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<v Speaker 1>my downside, and then you basically skew your you know,

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<v Speaker 1>your positioning based on whether you think the downside or

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<v Speaker 1>upside case is more likely, whether we're talking about a

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<v Speaker 1>single stock or the S and P five hundred. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's no different. I don't think that's a unique approach.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's the way most investors think about how

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<v Speaker 1>to put money to work, and so I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think it works. But I mean doesn't mean you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be right. That's the That's the thing, like like

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<v Speaker 1>do you do you bet on the bull case or

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<v Speaker 1>you've been on the bear case at any given time,

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<v Speaker 1>depends on how things go out. It is a play

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<v Speaker 1>out the way you think it plays out.

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<v Speaker 2>And part of that on the bull case the bearcase

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<v Speaker 2>is the cash case. That is a modern market timing

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<v Speaker 2>thing that we see here Mike Wilson and trying to

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<v Speaker 2>time the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, there's uh, you know, there's a whole graveyard

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<v Speaker 1>of people of market timers. You know, we we do

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<v Speaker 1>it as part.

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<v Speaker 3>Of our job.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to. We asked, we're asked by clients that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, whether it's the S and P

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred or sectors or stocks. I mean, that's our job,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's it's most you know, asset manager's job is

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<v Speaker 1>to try and time when to buy certain stocks or

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<v Speaker 1>do certain things with their investments. And I mean, look,

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes we get it right, sometimes we get it wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say we had a stretch where I felt

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<v Speaker 1>like we got everything right, and of course that never lasts.

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<v Speaker 1>The good news about investing is you can always change

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<v Speaker 1>your mind, which we've done, and we've you know, raised

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<v Speaker 1>our targets and we've changed our strategy to to deal

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<v Speaker 1>with what the market's giving us. And that's really the

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<v Speaker 1>game is just take what the market gives you. Don't

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<v Speaker 1>fight what the market's telling you. That's the best analyst

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<v Speaker 1>in the world is what the market internals are saying.

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<v Speaker 1>We use it as part of our process, actually, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's that's the best way to be is

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<v Speaker 1>just be humble about it, and you know, don't be

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<v Speaker 1>afraid to say, hey, we're wrong. I mean, like I

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<v Speaker 1>think Smador expected to be right all the time, and

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<v Speaker 1>nobody is and being wrong is not a sin. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just you know, staying on the wrong side of things

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<v Speaker 1>for too long is a problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, and then we talked to

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<v Speaker 2>Brian Belski. What a moment there to talk to Michael

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<v Speaker 2>Barr and Brian Belski about the NFL North, the Lions

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<v Speaker 2>big win over the Vikings. It was great. They really

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<v Speaker 2>really dug into that. And of course we look forward

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<v Speaker 2>to Thanksgiving, important holiday. I believe it's Lions Bears will

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<v Speaker 2>be that twelve noon game. That is such a tradition

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<v Speaker 2>for the nation. Another tradition is to try to guess

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<v Speaker 2>a bull market. Brian Belski of Bemo Capital Markets has

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<v Speaker 2>just absolutely nailed the bull call.

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<v Speaker 3>Here Belski on the view forward, I think stay invested.

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<v Speaker 3>I think trying not to time. I think people have

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<v Speaker 3>become so afraid to be wrong, they don't want to

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<v Speaker 3>be right. I think part of this is a function

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<v Speaker 3>of what happened during the tech wreck that was exacerbated

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<v Speaker 3>during the Great Financial Crisis, which created the generational buying

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<v Speaker 3>opportunity in two thousand and nine, when we came out

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<v Speaker 3>with our twenty five year secular BOWLMARKT called twenty ten.

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<v Speaker 3>So we remain resolute on this. We're entering year three

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<v Speaker 3>of the Bowl, and I think you know, going forward,

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<v Speaker 3>our longer term trend has been normalization. We've been talking

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<v Speaker 3>about it for three years.

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<v Speaker 2>Brian Belski. He framed up beautifully. Okay, double digit thirteen twelve,

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<v Speaker 2>fourteen percent returns, maybe not, but then subsiding down to

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<v Speaker 2>some form of low double digit, high single digit world

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<v Speaker 2>for Brian Belski and Demo Capital Market's run on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast growing each and every day. He

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<v Speaker 2>just thrilled with a live chat effort that we've got

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<v Speaker 2>there as well in Apple car Play and Android Hotto.

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<v Speaker 2>Major shot out to people on Spotify. I have underplayed

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<v Speaker 2>this totally. I don't do Spotify full disclosure, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>a huge deal Spotify podcasts, YouTube podcasts, Apple podcasts, which

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<v Speaker 2>is always single best idea