1
00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:17,079
Speaker 2: Single best idea and my single best idea was just

3
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:19,440
Speaker 2: thank you to all that I saw on the travels

4
00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,680
Speaker 2: to Rome who take part in the podcasts, take part

5
00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:28,240
Speaker 2: in YouTube, and really all the new distribution. I completely

6
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:32,880
Speaker 2: underestimate the power of this new digital distribution, and I'll

7
00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,440
Speaker 2: tell you it was something to hear about it in

8
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:40,720
Speaker 2: Rome and travels thereabouts. One of the great things is

9
00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,880
Speaker 2: to come back to a good opinions on the equity markets.

10
00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,199
Speaker 2: Gina Martin Adams with Paul Sweeney yesterday and today. We'll

11
00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,160
Speaker 2: get to Brian Belski here in a moment, but Mike

12
00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,159
Speaker 2: Wilson with us. One of the great features of Wilson,

13
00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,760
Speaker 2: like Gina Martin Adams, is you got to be in

14
00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,760
Speaker 2: the market. It's nothing, go to cash, do this, do this,

15
00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 2: do this. But here is an interesting idea, Mike Wilson,

16
00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,880
Speaker 2: I'm trying to guess out seven years or ten years

17
00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,360
Speaker 2: to a set of outcomes a fan distribution.

18
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:11,560
Speaker 1: I think it depends on how you utilize them. I mean,

19
00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 1: we we do a bull bear base case. We've done

20
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 1: that for you know, the duration of as long as

21
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,000
Speaker 1: we've had this job and I think every investor does that.

22
00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,480
Speaker 1: It's called a risk reward. It's what's my upside, what's

23
00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,080
Speaker 1: my downside, and then you basically skew your you know,

24
00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,640
Speaker 1: your positioning based on whether you think the downside or

25
00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:30,680
Speaker 1: upside case is more likely, whether we're talking about a

26
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 1: single stock or the S and P five hundred. So

27
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,360
Speaker 1: it's no different. I don't think that's a unique approach.

28
00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,959
Speaker 1: I think that's the way most investors think about how

29
00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,120
Speaker 1: to put money to work, and so I think I

30
00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:42,880
Speaker 1: think it works. But I mean doesn't mean you're going

31
00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,440
Speaker 1: to be right. That's the That's the thing, like like

32
00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:47,400
Speaker 1: do you do you bet on the bull case or

33
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 1: you've been on the bear case at any given time,

34
00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,320
Speaker 1: depends on how things go out. It is a play

35
00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:53,480
Speaker 1: out the way you think it plays out.

36
00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 2: And part of that on the bull case the bearcase

37
00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,720
Speaker 2: is the cash case. That is a modern market timing

38
00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,640
Speaker 2: thing that we see here Mike Wilson and trying to

39
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:04,960
Speaker 2: time the markets.

40
00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, there's uh, you know, there's a whole graveyard

41
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,440
Speaker 1: of people of market timers. You know, we we do

42
00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 1: it as part.

43
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:11,560
Speaker 3: Of our job.

44
00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 1: We have to. We asked, we're asked by clients that

45
00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:16,239
Speaker 1: kind of you know, whether it's the S and P

46
00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,800
Speaker 1: five hundred or sectors or stocks. I mean, that's our job,

47
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,680
Speaker 1: and that's it's most you know, asset manager's job is

48
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,400
Speaker 1: to try and time when to buy certain stocks or

49
00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,680
Speaker 1: do certain things with their investments. And I mean, look,

50
00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,280
Speaker 1: sometimes we get it right, sometimes we get it wrong.

51
00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,560
Speaker 1: I would say we had a stretch where I felt

52
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,240
Speaker 1: like we got everything right, and of course that never lasts.

53
00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,560
Speaker 1: The good news about investing is you can always change

54
00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: your mind, which we've done, and we've you know, raised

55
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,800
Speaker 1: our targets and we've changed our strategy to to deal

56
00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,640
Speaker 1: with what the market's giving us. And that's really the

57
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,400
Speaker 1: game is just take what the market gives you. Don't

58
00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,800
Speaker 1: fight what the market's telling you. That's the best analyst

59
00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:53,920
Speaker 1: in the world is what the market internals are saying.

60
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,560
Speaker 1: We use it as part of our process, actually, and

61
00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,320
Speaker 1: I think that's that's the best way to be is

62
00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,200
Speaker 1: just be humble about it, and you know, don't be

63
00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 1: afraid to say, hey, we're wrong. I mean, like I

64
00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 1: think Smador expected to be right all the time, and

65
00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,079
Speaker 1: nobody is and being wrong is not a sin. It's

66
00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 1: just you know, staying on the wrong side of things

67
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,120
Speaker 1: for too long is a problem.

68
00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,320
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, and then we talked to

69
00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,720
Speaker 2: Brian Belski. What a moment there to talk to Michael

70
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:23,040
Speaker 2: Barr and Brian Belski about the NFL North, the Lions

71
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,080
Speaker 2: big win over the Vikings. It was great. They really

72
00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,160
Speaker 2: really dug into that. And of course we look forward

73
00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:34,239
Speaker 2: to Thanksgiving, important holiday. I believe it's Lions Bears will

74
00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 2: be that twelve noon game. That is such a tradition

75
00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 2: for the nation. Another tradition is to try to guess

76
00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,120
Speaker 2: a bull market. Brian Belski of Bemo Capital Markets has

77
00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:47,360
Speaker 2: just absolutely nailed the bull call.

78
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 3: Here Belski on the view forward, I think stay invested.

79
00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,840
Speaker 3: I think trying not to time. I think people have

80
00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,040
Speaker 3: become so afraid to be wrong, they don't want to

81
00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,000
Speaker 3: be right. I think part of this is a function

82
00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,440
Speaker 3: of what happened during the tech wreck that was exacerbated

83
00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,120
Speaker 3: during the Great Financial Crisis, which created the generational buying

84
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,080
Speaker 3: opportunity in two thousand and nine, when we came out

85
00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,880
Speaker 3: with our twenty five year secular BOWLMARKT called twenty ten.

86
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 3: So we remain resolute on this. We're entering year three

87
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,800
Speaker 3: of the Bowl, and I think you know, going forward,

88
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,520
Speaker 3: our longer term trend has been normalization. We've been talking

89
00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:20,640
Speaker 3: about it for three years.

90
00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 2: Brian Belski. He framed up beautifully. Okay, double digit thirteen twelve,

91
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 2: fourteen percent returns, maybe not, but then subsiding down to

92
00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 2: some form of low double digit, high single digit world

93
00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 2: for Brian Belski and Demo Capital Market's run on YouTube.

94
00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast growing each and every day. He

95
00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,520
Speaker 2: just thrilled with a live chat effort that we've got

96
00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,200
Speaker 2: there as well in Apple car Play and Android Hotto.

97
00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:55,120
Speaker 2: Major shot out to people on Spotify. I have underplayed

98
00:04:55,120 --> 00:05:00,640
Speaker 2: this totally. I don't do Spotify full disclosure, but it's

99
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:06,160
Speaker 2: a huge deal Spotify podcasts, YouTube podcasts, Apple podcasts, which

100
00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:12,600
Speaker 2: is always single best idea