1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence 2 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney. 3 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 2: How do you think the FED is looking at tariffs? 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 2: The uncertainty of terriffs. 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 3: Let's take a look at the sectors and how they performed. 6 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 2: A lot of investors getting whipsaled every day by news events, 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 2: breaking market headlines. 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: And corporate news from across the globe. 9 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 3: Could we see a market disruption of market event? 10 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: So people just too exuberant out there? 11 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 3: You see some so called low quality stocks driving this 12 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 3: short term rally. 13 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, 14 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: YouTube and Bloomberg Originals. 15 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 2: On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big 16 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: business story is impacting Wall Street and the global markets. 17 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 3: Each and every week we provide in depth research and 18 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 3: data on some of the two thousand companies and one 19 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty industries are analysts cover worldwide. 20 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 2: Today, we'll look at the outlook for US railroad, transportation, 21 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: telecoms and cloud computing business for twenty twenty six plus. 22 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 3: We speak with the writer and producer of the film 23 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 3: Ball Run on capturing the excess and high octane world 24 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 3: of Wall Street. 25 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: First, we lean into the world of luxury. According to 26 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: the most recent Bloomberg Intelligence research, the recovery of luxury 27 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 2: goods makers in twenty twenty six hinges on limited price 28 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 2: increases and a shift toward volume led growth. 29 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 3: For more pollen guest host Normal and I spoke with 30 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 3: deb Acon, Bloomberg Intelligence luxury goods analysts. 31 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 4: We started out twenty twenty five with an expectation that 32 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 4: we'd move back to growth, and that certainly didn't materialize 33 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 4: through the first half of the year, but we seem 34 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 4: to be ending at around three to four percent growth 35 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 4: as we exit twenty twenty five. Now, the US has 36 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 4: been robust, Middle East doing very well, but particularly in 37 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 4: the first half the year, it was China which was 38 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 4: the drag. And what we've noticed is we end the year. 39 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 4: We've actually just heard on a fireside chat over the 40 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 4: last few days from Laurel where they're mentioning high end 41 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 4: beauty doing very well out of the US, but also 42 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 4: in China too, So they're adding to what we've heard 43 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 4: from the luxury companies, where we've seen two thirds of 44 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 4: luxury companies and most of the top ten switching to 45 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 4: growth in China in Q three from a low base 46 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 4: from negatives a year ago. But actually that we're calling 47 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: green shoots into the end of year. 48 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 5: How are these companies holding up as it releads to 49 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 5: tariff overhangs. 50 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, so we did a lot of work around May 51 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 4: time and again through July and August with the different 52 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 4: tariff rates moving around, and what we've actually seen it 53 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 4: was less detrimental overall in our numbers. We probably think 54 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 4: that EPs won't be pulled as much as was expected 55 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 4: because there have been some cost savings and the biggest 56 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: companies and those that were where brands were really in favor, 57 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 4: have managed to pass on price, and generally because these 58 00:02:55,600 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 4: companies operate on high gross margin, the cost in the US, 59 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 4: they've moved around two to four percent on additional price 60 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 4: into the US as well as two three percent from 61 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 4: the beginning of the year, So some of those brands 62 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 4: have absorbed passing through six seven percent pricing to the 63 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 4: US consumer, and we think into twenty twenty six that 64 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 4: moves nearer to two to three percent overall, so it 65 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 4: should be less intimidating for the consumer overall twenty twenty six. 66 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,519 Speaker 4: So it's one of our drivers for the year ahead. 67 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 2: Dev talk to us about the Chinese consumer. Are they 68 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: not traveling? So is that an impact for New York 69 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: and London and Paris and things like that. 70 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 4: We actually have a survey out of our Asia office 71 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 4: that we've just incorporated into a travel document which will 72 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 4: be producing. But this piece of work has already produced 73 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 4: and actually on October versus May. The China consumer is 74 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 4: looking to travel more into Europe to start with, So 75 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 4: that's the first big positive. I think part of that 76 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 4: is is just on the way the tariff situation has 77 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: gone maybe so that would be the first time that 78 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 4: we're looking for them to come back so versus three 79 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 4: months ago. They're looking to traveling outside of Asia. But 80 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 4: overall what we call the China cohort that's actually really 81 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 4: operateing more avidly across the Asia region. We're not seeing 82 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 4: so much travel from Chinese into Japan, and of course 83 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 4: we know that there are there's some political commentary there 84 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 4: as well, so we wouldn't expect that to pick up 85 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 4: next year. But we are seeing Korea, Singapore, Australia and 86 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 4: others being positive and the first move to Europe should 87 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 4: hopefully indicate that towards the end of the year and 88 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 4: as tariffs settle more in twenty twenty six, that we 89 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,559 Speaker 4: see some of that return to the US as well. 90 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 5: And sticking with China, how are we thinking about supply 91 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 5: chain operations as it releads to a lot of these 92 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 5: luxury firms, especially stemming from China. 93 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, so if we think about maybe if we if 94 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 4: we look at it from some of the aspirational or 95 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 4: entry level luxury companies, then they will have some production 96 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 4: moving around the Asia region. But if we think about 97 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 4: the heritage traditional higher end luxury companies, then most of 98 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 4: their production is France, Italy, some Portugal, some parts of 99 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 4: southern Spain. Not so much going on in the Asia region, 100 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 4: and so they've been able to manage on the twenty 101 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 4: percent tariff from made in Europe over to the US 102 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 4: more so than some of the peer group. For example, 103 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 4: one of our entry level that we call branded affordable 104 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 4: jewelry Pandora producers out of Thailand, it's really suffered in 105 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 4: terms of share price this year versus some of the 106 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 4: Asian retail jewelers who've done very very well on the 107 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 4: price of gold. 108 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 2: So you got to explain this whole handbag thing to me, 109 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,799 Speaker 2: dev I was in Italy in September towards some place 110 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 2: factors and artisan shops where they make these handbags and 111 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 2: they sell them for tens of thousands of dollars in euros? 112 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 2: What is going on there? Who buys that? 113 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 6: Yeah? 114 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 4: It has I always say, if you bought a Ermez, 115 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 4: you have a just as good or a better correlation 116 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 4: than if you'd have held gold. So I think that 117 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 4: you know, these bags, particularly for sought after material, the 118 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 4: craftsmanship and the fact that they have continued value, are 119 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 4: seen as investment pieces, and so we have the middle ground. 120 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 4: You know, if we look over the last year and 121 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 4: one of the things that we think for twenty twenty 122 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 4: six bags from Tapestry, from Coach, Ralph Lauren, others as 123 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 4: well as ready to wear have done very very well, 124 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 4: resonated with a consumer who's been a little bit more 125 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 4: skeptical on the consumer sentiment side and maybe shopped around 126 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 4: one thousand dollars or so. But at the very high 127 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 4: end there hasn't been much of a move. So we've 128 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 4: seen Mmes, Brunello, Kuche you others doing very very well 129 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 4: at that high end. 130 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,279 Speaker 2: All right, thanks to Debacon Bloomberg Intelligence luxury goods analyst. 131 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 2: We move next to a conversation with Jonathan Goldstein, co 132 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 2: founder and CEO of Kine International. It's an alternative asset 133 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: manager specializing in real estate investment solutions. 134 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 3: Jonathan's real estate and experiential investments have helped him morph 135 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 3: into sports related investments. In twenty twenty two, he also 136 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 3: became director and co owner of Chelsea Football Club, a 137 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 3: prominent soccer club in the English Premier League. 138 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 2: He shares details about his new club and what it 139 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 2: means to be part of a growing ownership group. 140 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 6: While I'm on the board of Chelsea and obviously the 141 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 6: buyout was led by my partner Todd Bowley and in 142 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 6: partnership with clear Lake. Back in twenty twenty two, teams 143 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 6: doing well, obviously huge success in the summer in New York, 144 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:47,239 Speaker 6: winning the Club World Club Championship, which was a proud 145 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 6: moment for the fans. The women's team don't extraordinarily well, 146 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 6: winning the Women's Premier League for multi times in the 147 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 6: a row last summer. So you know, we're very proud 148 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 6: of the development since we've been involved in twenty twenty two. 149 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 6: We think there's more to come. We're very excited. 150 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: So the valuations on some of these franchises, whether it's 151 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 2: huge franchises like in the English Premier League or the 152 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: National Football League here in US, just beyond the realm 153 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 2: of arguably even one hundred millionaires. These are billionaires, if 154 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 2: not private equity corporate money. So that leads some people 155 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: to say, Hey, I'm going to go to some of 156 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 2: these smaller sports where I can maybe get some better value. 157 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 2: How about cricket Trent Rockets. What's the play there? And 158 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 2: I don't know that's all I got from cricket. 159 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 6: First of all, let me explain that the way that 160 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 6: the one hundred competition works that we've invested in and 161 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 6: try and put in an American language. Please, Let's assume 162 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 6: you have a baseball game, YEP, where you have one 163 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 6: hundred pitches per side, and the objective is to score 164 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 6: as many runs of those one hundred pitches as you can. 165 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 6: It's short form nature of the game two to two 166 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 6: and a half hours, exciting every pitch is important and 167 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 6: this is what the English Cricket Board created five years 168 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 6: ago in London in the UK with one hundred with 169 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 6: eight franchises around the country. Now it modeled itself on 170 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 6: the Indian Premier League, which obviously has been a phenomenal 171 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 6: product for the Indian population and globally for those who 172 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 6: like cricket. It has the second most valuable broadcast rights 173 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 6: a game in the world, behind the NFL on a 174 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 6: per game basis. There are larger broadcast contracts, but not 175 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 6: on a per game basis. So we have watched this 176 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 6: competition in the UK and we thought there was a 177 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 6: significant opportunity for us to get involved add value, and 178 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 6: we watched other people get involved obviously, and there's you know, 179 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 6: of the eight teams, four of them are owned directly 180 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 6: by Indian Premier League teams. One of them is owned 181 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 6: by a group of what they call themselves the tech 182 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 6: Titans on the West coast of America, you know, the 183 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 6: Microsoft CEO by way of example. And then so you know, 184 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 6: a lot of you know, Indian heritage love cricket, and 185 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 6: so we thought, you know, here it's a significant opportunity 186 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 6: to create the baby product to the IPL and over 187 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 6: five to ten years grow that. It's a great window 188 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 6: of the summer in the UK. Obviously, you have to, 189 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 6: just like in America, a good external climate to play 190 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 6: cricket because you want to outdoors. You can't play in 191 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 6: the rain, just like baseball. So it's a great time 192 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 6: mid July to mid August where there's a window for 193 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 6: an opportunity to build huge product and broadcast and spectator. 194 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 6: And I think what's really important is that you're building 195 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 6: it in a country which has an undercurrent of love 196 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 6: for the sport. 197 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 2: So therefore you for a good base thing for me 198 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 2: to go see. I'm not looking out to see a 199 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 2: cricket match. 200 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 6: Well right, professional, I'm going to invite you next summer. 201 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 6: I think what we're doing here and what playing back 202 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 6: to your initial question, we've watched the valuations of the 203 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 6: NFL teams of the you know, the baseball teams. I 204 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 6: mean Todd obviously led the way with the Dodgers, you know, 205 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 6: over ten years ago at just around two billion dollars. 206 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 6: And we've seen what trades are happening today. You know, 207 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 6: we saw, you know, the valuation has been put on 208 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 6: the NFL teams recently, and even the MLS is training 209 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 6: at very high levels. So you know, you try and 210 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 6: see a situation where you think you can add value 211 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 6: and grow a franchise and grow a Business. 212 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 3: Jonathan, Do you see a future for cricket in the US. 213 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 6: Well, I think there's a future for most sports in 214 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 6: most places. It depends upon the depth of demand and 215 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 6: the depth of local participation. I don't think you can 216 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 6: just pick up a sport and put it in each 217 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 6: country unless there is an underlying desire. But in my view, 218 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 6: there's a much greater opportunity in the UK because of 219 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 6: the inherent nature the love of cricket that people grew 220 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 6: up with. And I think there's so much competition in 221 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 6: the US for again, no basketball and baseball and football 222 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,559 Speaker 6: and all the major sports. I think the MLS has 223 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 6: made a breakthrough, but it hasn't really gone up to 224 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 6: the top table. And I think if you look at 225 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 6: how many years that's been at it, I think cricket 226 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 6: will find itself even harder to get to that top 227 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 6: table in the US. 228 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 2: Go to any of the parks in Yes, Queens Brooklyn. 229 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 3: Across the street from my house. 230 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 2: World class cricket dudes out there. 231 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 6: Yeah. 232 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're playing every Sunday and every Saturday. 233 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:08,319 Speaker 2: It's crazy everyone. 234 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 6: Well, let's say, you know, I think Americans have had 235 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 6: a view of cricket overall, which is wrong, right. It's 236 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 6: an amazing sport. Even the five day variety is probably 237 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 6: the most the most enthralling sport you could ever watch. Yeah, 238 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 6: and I think that, you know, I think that cricket 239 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 6: is a growth area and that's why we put some 240 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 6: money behind it. 241 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 2: Our thanks to Jonathan Goldtein, co founder and CEO Caine International. 242 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 3: Coming up, Railroad's on the move, telecoms in orbit, and 243 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 3: gaming in the cloud. As we look ahead to twenty 244 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 3: twenty six, you're. 245 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: Listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth 246 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 2: research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred 247 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 2: and thirty industries. 248 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 3: You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi go on the terminal. 249 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 3: I'm Scarlet Foo and. 250 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeney, and this is Bloomberg. 251 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney 252 00:12:57,760 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. 253 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: Start on the rails. Heading into twenty twenty six, North 254 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 2: American railroad companies are betting on precision technology and cost 255 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 2: control as a navigate steadier demand. 256 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 3: According to the latest Bloomberg Intelligence research, North American railroads 257 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 3: earnings growth look poised to pick up next year, but 258 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 3: may fall short of double digits because of President Trump's tariffs. 259 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 2: For more guest hosts, Christine Aquino and I are joined 260 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 2: by Lee Klascow, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Transport, Logistics and Chipping analysts. 261 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 7: We are thinking that next year is going to be 262 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 7: a better year, but it's not going to be a 263 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 7: great year. So earnings for the rails broadly speaking increased 264 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 7: by mid single digits. We expect that to accelerate to 265 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 7: high single digits. I think investors would really like to 266 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 7: see it get it into the double digits and even 267 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 7: mid teens, but I think we might be a ways 268 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 7: out for that for a while. And that's really being 269 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 7: driven on the demand side. We're really expecting tepid demand 270 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 7: across the board at low single digit growth. You know, 271 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 7: some rails might do slightly better than others, like CSX, 272 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 7: which has easier comparisons versus this year in Canadian Pacific, 273 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 7: which is has a lot of synergy opportunities following its 274 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 7: merger with Kansas City a couple of years ago, and 275 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 7: they're still working through some new business opportunities following that merger. 276 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 7: So those two rails will probably outperform when it comes 277 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 7: to volume growth and you could see flat growth from 278 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 7: a rail like Norfolk Southern, which is dealing with possibly 279 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 7: some loss share on the intermodal side and some tougher 280 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 7: comparisons when it comes to export coal. 281 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, very interestingly, of course, still a challenging outlook. 282 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 8: It seemed like for the rail sector next year. How 283 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 8: do tarriffs play into that outlook because we still don't 284 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 8: have a lot of clarity on whether terrors are going 285 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 8: to stay, But if they do, how could that disrupt 286 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 8: the outlook for rail in twenty twenty six. 287 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, So it's impacting rails differently. It's impacting the Canadian rails, 288 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 7: Canadian National and Pacific, Kansas City or Kansas City Southern, 289 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 7: they're impacting them, you know, kind of on if you 290 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 7: think about it, forest products or metals or photos that's 291 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 7: being negatively impacted. And if you look at Union Pacific, 292 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 7: you know, if you have inconsistency with imports coming into 293 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 7: southern California. 294 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 2: That's impacting them. 295 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 7: So you know, it's really creating a level of uncertainty 296 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 7: among shippers and that's creating, you know what I would say, 297 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 7: not allowing the rails to operate as fluid as they 298 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 7: possibly can. Because of that stop and go demand. 299 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 2: Well, one of the big topics in the railroad industry, 300 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 2: and I think it'll be most of the year, is 301 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 2: the proposed Union Pacific Norfolk Southern m and A transaction 302 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 2: here creating the first east west coast to coast railroad 303 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 2: in the United States. Is this even going to get approved? 304 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 7: Do you think we're we're kind of cautious on that, 305 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 7: you know, I think we have like a forty percent 306 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 7: probability that the deal gets done and we're well below consensus. 307 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 7: We admit we might be a little naive thinking that, 308 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 7: you know, the STB will remain you know, neutral when 309 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 7: they take a look at this deal because the parties 310 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 7: have to prove that it's in the public interest and 311 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 7: it's going to enhance competition. Some could argue that some 312 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 7: of that enhanced competition is going on right now because 313 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 7: you've seen Burlington Northern, which is a competitor in the West, 314 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 7: teaming up with CSX to provide coast to coast services 315 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 7: not through an acquisition but through more of a collaborative effort. 316 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 7: And you are seeing CSX winning some share from Norfolk 317 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 7: Southern based on that. 318 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, Well, if that does not clear the regulators. Lee, 319 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 8: what do you think that will say about the future 320 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 8: of potential consolidation or strategic partnerships across the rail industry. 321 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 8: Is it kind of do you think people are going 322 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 8: to see as a one off sort of situation or 323 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 8: is it kind of a harbinger of challenges to come 324 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 8: when it comes to M and A in this space. 325 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 7: Well, the SDB raised the bar for large Class one 326 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 7: railroads to merge back in two thousand and one, and 327 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 7: that was really driven on some service issues from a 328 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 7: mergers and so you know that's why the bar has 329 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 7: been set so high. All the other railroads obviously they're 330 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:08,959 Speaker 7: talking in their book, but you know, they think that 331 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 7: they can create a better network through collaboration. You know, 332 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 7: we think that it can happen through a merger or 333 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 7: through collaboration. But you know, like I mentioned earlier, Union 334 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 7: Pacific and Norfolk Southern still have to you know, clear 335 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 7: that high hurdle that it enhances competition and it's also 336 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 7: in the public interest, which is again it's it's really 337 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 7: tough to prove. Also, you know, we expect that you know, 338 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 7: we probably get an answer about whether or not the 339 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 7: STB or the Service Transportation Board will approve this deal 340 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 7: in early twenty twenty seven, so we'll be talking about 341 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 7: it all year, and I hope to talk to you 342 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 7: guys about it all year. 343 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 2: Our thanks to lead Clasical Bloomberg Intelligence, senior Transport, Logistics 344 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 2: and Shipping analyst, we move next to the telecom and 345 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 2: satellite space. Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out as out Look 346 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: for US telecoms and satellites in twenty twenty six. 347 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 3: To their research, slowing wireless service revenue gains and mounting 348 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 3: cable competition are prompting a deeper push into broadband for 349 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 3: growth as US telecoms enter next year. 350 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 2: For more guestos, Alex Semonova and I were joined by 351 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 2: John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence senior telecom analysts. 352 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 9: So I think the big thing to keep in mind here, Paul, 353 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 9: is as we roll into twenty twenty six, I think 354 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 9: we're going to see price promotion take a modest step up. 355 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 9: The bullets are really flying in wireless right now. I 356 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 9: think part of it is AT and TM Verizon both 357 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 9: have new CEOs. Both CEOs are going to want to 358 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 9: make their mark. I think the one to watch is 359 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 9: Dan Shulman at Verizon He is very focused on volume. 360 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,479 Speaker 9: He wants to get Verizon back to subscriber growth, and 361 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 9: I think the only way to do it is going 362 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 9: to be by promoting a little bit more aggressively than 363 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 9: they have in the past. 364 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 10: John, Where do you see the strongest incremental demanding from. 365 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 10: Is it going to be mobile data? Is it going 366 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 10: to be broadband? 367 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 9: Two areas, alex One, as you touched on, is broadband. 368 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 9: That's a real growth factor for the telecoms. If you 369 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 9: look at fixed wireless access, which is delivering broadband over 370 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 9: a wireless link into the home, that has proven to 371 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 9: be exceptionally popular with people. So I think the all 372 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 9: three telcodes are going to lean into broadband in order 373 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 9: to supplement the slowdown in wireless growth. But the one 374 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 9: area I'm watching as we move into next year is satellite. 375 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 9: Starlink is partnered with T Mobile. The two of them 376 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 9: are already offering limited texting service on a nationwide basis. 377 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 9: It's sort of early stages. They are early innings, if 378 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 9: you will, for them. Verizon, an AT and T are 379 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 9: partnered with AST Space Mobile, which is in the process 380 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 9: of launching its constellation. Now they actually have more better 381 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 9: satellites than starlink, and so the space race is on. 382 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 9: As I like to say, it's going to be really 383 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 9: interesting to see once for Verizon and AT and T 384 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 9: are able to launch services early next year, how that 385 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 9: market segment unfolds. 386 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 2: So the wireless operators the verizons of the world, AT 387 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 2: and TS, John, they they're partnering with some of these 388 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 2: space satellite services. 389 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think the way to think about it, 390 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 9: Paul is it's almost like cell sites in space at 391 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 9: this point yep. So the major carriers have partnered with 392 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:43,640 Speaker 9: starlink and AST to provide that infrastructure and the transmission 393 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 9: capability up in space to be able to provide coverage 394 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 9: outside the range of terrestrial networks now, so essentially that 395 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 9: concept of coverage everywhere is going to become a reality 396 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 9: as we move through next year. 397 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 10: We will say it was getting a new iPhone in 398 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 10: T Mobile. I'm still grandfathered into my father's plan, very 399 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 10: Lucky's still paying for my cell phone. 400 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 2: But they immediately got on comment by the way, to 401 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 2: get Wi Fi. 402 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 10: With them with T Mobile, So it's really interesting and 403 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 10: a new offering from them. 404 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 2: As you mentioned, is there a six G out there, 405 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 2: because we I think I've grown up and we've had 406 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 2: three G, four G, five G. Is there a six 407 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 2: G out there? 408 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 1: Not yet. 409 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 9: I think six G is going to move onto the 410 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 9: horizon probably as we move through next year. It's a 411 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 9: development process by the industry, and so that standard, if 412 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 9: you will, is getting developed now by industry committees. It 413 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 9: will then move into tests probably in twenty twenty eight 414 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 9: and become a reality for us by twenty thirty. Right now, 415 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 9: we're mid cycle with five GS. So if you think 416 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 9: back to when four G was originally launched, it was 417 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 9: much lower speed than it is today, So that standard 418 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 9: those generations of mobile evolve over what are typically ten 419 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 9: year cycles. So we're mid cycle with five G. Expect 420 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 9: better speeds and better performance there as we move through 421 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 9: the next five years, and then ultimately six G will appear, 422 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 9: probably again in the twenty thirty timeframe. 423 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 2: Our thanks to John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence senior telecom analyst. 424 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 2: Now we move to the cloud gaming space. Bloomberg Intelligence 425 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 2: has recently put out a deep dive in cloud streamed 426 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 2: gaming and specifically how AI could accelerate game development with 427 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 2: a shift toward cloud based games. 428 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 3: This development could in theory make physical gaming consoles obsolete 429 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 3: for more. We talked to Nathan Nadu, he is Bloomberg 430 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 3: Intelligence technology research analyst. 431 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 11: Consoles will decline gradually and that's what I mean, and 432 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 11: no kind of remaining over the long term as a 433 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 11: NICHS device for loyal fans, the really hardcore gamers. As 434 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 11: advancement in cloud infrastructure and we see what's happening with 435 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 11: data centers as well as a wider spread of mobile 436 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 11: gaming playing games from mobile device is whether smartphones or tablets. 437 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,919 Speaker 11: As that game wider spread and people become less interested, 438 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 11: you know, in playing games at an unportable gaming hardware 439 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 11: that's stuck at home or living room. If they can 440 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 11: do so and have the same experience on momor device, 441 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 11: why not right? 442 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 2: So where are we in kind of that evolution in 443 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,640 Speaker 2: terms of really putting more and more of the content 444 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,439 Speaker 2: of the technology, of the capabilities in the cloud. How 445 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 2: is that changing the gaming experience the gaming business? 446 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 11: Yes? So the key pain point to cloud gaming is 447 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 11: network latency because that literally depends on the distance between 448 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 11: the user's hardware, whether a mobile device or console, to 449 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 11: the nearest cell tower. And we know that five G 450 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 11: network coverage are improving not just in emerging markets, but 451 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 11: also becoming better in even develop markets including China and 452 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 11: the US and so as that infrastructure and also cloud 453 00:23:55,840 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 11: improved because the proximity to data centers also is factor 454 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 11: in determining the experience of cloud. So far, you know, 455 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 11: in emerging market there is a pain point, but we're 456 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 11: seeing really huge uptick in coverage footprint, whether five G 457 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:16,400 Speaker 11: or four glte in markets like India and Middle East 458 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 11: and Latin America. So that just support our conclusion that 459 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 11: you know, in the next ten years, the experience that 460 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 11: pain point would become better. And also let's not forget 461 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 11: that you know, mobile phones, mobile screens capture you know, 462 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 11: a lot of our attention economy. Actually, there's a study 463 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 11: according to Harmony Harmony Healthcare it that it captures more 464 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,479 Speaker 11: than five hours of our time every every day, at 465 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 11: about twenty percent of those times actually go to gaming 466 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 11: among Generation Alpha and Generation Z and the other bulk 467 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 11: of the gamers. And also these gamers don't really care 468 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 11: about playing games at home anymore if they can play 469 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,879 Speaker 11: on mobile because what they care about is access and 470 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 11: also be able to do things on their mobile devices. 471 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 11: So I feel like with this generation coming up and 472 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 11: entering into the workforce, and they're the one who would 473 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 11: see spending power increasing. And I feel like there's a 474 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 11: lot less inclination to actually play games on a console. 475 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 11: If down ten years downline, you can have the same 476 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 11: experience playing games on a mobile device. 477 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,400 Speaker 2: Thanks to Nathan Nadu, Bloomberg Intelligence technology research. 478 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 3: Analyst, coming up from factory floors to farm fields, how 479 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 3: US machinery makers are positioned for twenty twenty six. 480 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio for writing 481 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 2: in depth research and data on two thousand companies and 482 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty industries. 483 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 3: You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi go on the terminal. 484 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 3: I'm Scarlett Foo and. 485 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeney, and this is Bloomberg. 486 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney 487 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. 488 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 2: Let's turn out to US machinery heading into twenty twenty six. 489 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 2: The outlook is defined by softer demand but steady investment, 490 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 2: and manufacturers focus on automation, replacement cycles and cost discipline. 491 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 3: For more on this, Paul caught up with Chrispherchilino, Bloomberg 492 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 3: Intelligence Senior US machinery analyst. 493 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 12: We believe that the US machinery earnings are likely approaching 494 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 12: a inflection point in twenty twenty six, really after a 495 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 12: multi year downturn. You know, despite lingering tariff headwinds, the 496 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 12: prospect of lower interest rates, policy and regulatory clarity, normalizing inventories, 497 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 12: and better pricing have really provided a favorable setup for 498 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 12: most machinery producers heading into twenty six. I would say 499 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 12: the outlooks do vary a little bit by end market. 500 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 12: You know, we're most constructive on the outlook for construction 501 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,719 Speaker 12: equipment next year, particularly as non residential construction markets approach 502 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 12: to trough. You also have favorable secular trends around power generation, 503 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 12: infrastructure and mega projects as well as some of these 504 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 12: reshoring investments. So we have really good visibility in terms 505 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 12: of twenty six and really even beyond. On the flip 506 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 12: side of that, we're a little more cautious on the 507 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 12: ad equipment outlook, and then I throw, you know, commercial 508 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 12: vehicles somewhere in between. 509 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 2: There equipment companies. I think about Caterpillar, for example, and 510 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 2: that stocks up fifty four year to date. So has 511 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: the market already discounted the cyclical up turner ors or 512 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 2: more to go. 513 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think there's a lot of runway here. You know, 514 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 12: there's been a lot of optimism around their power gen 515 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 12: and exposure to the data center market. But I think 516 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 12: we're still very early innings in this story playing out. 517 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 12: They're going to double their large engine capacity here through 518 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 12: the end of the decade. Gas turbines are going to 519 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 12: be up two and a half times. You're just beginning 520 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,879 Speaker 12: to see some of these products come to the marketplace, 521 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 12: and really there's just insatiable demand for power generation, and 522 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 12: I would say Caterpillar and Cummings are somewhat uniquely positioned 523 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 12: within the machinery space to kind of capitalize on these 524 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 12: these longer term secular stories. 525 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, that is a long term secular story power generation. 526 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 2: So did do they disclose backlog information or anything like 527 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 2: that to get a sense of kind of how big 528 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 2: this business could be for them? 529 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 12: Yeah, So Caterpillar's backlog for the enterprise is at a 530 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 12: record level and it just continues to, you know, set 531 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,880 Speaker 12: new records with each passing quarter. In terms of their 532 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 12: actual power generation business. Uh, No, they keep that pretty 533 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 12: close to the vest, but it does expend, It does 534 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 12: extend multiple years and the fact that they're making you know, 535 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 12: essentially more than doubling their large engine capacity through the 536 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 12: end of the decade. Just I think uh lends support 537 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 12: to they have very good visibility for several years out 538 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 12: and same thing I would allude to that as Cummings 539 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 12: as well. You know, they have very good backlog visibility 540 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 12: in terms of their power generation business. And then you 541 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 12: throw on, you know, the cyclical recovery that we should 542 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 12: see in these businesses. It's a pretty favorable set up, 543 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 12: not only for twenty six but beyond all. 544 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 2: Right, you mentioned the other part of the business are 545 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 2: a different part of the business, one that focuses on 546 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 2: the agricultural sector of the economy. We know the farmers 547 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 2: in a really tough spot these days, and when they 548 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 2: face financial difficulties, they're not buying deer tractors and things 549 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 2: like that. So what's the outlook there over twenty six Yeah, right. 550 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 12: Now, we anticipate that the large ag market here in 551 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 12: North America will be down another ten to fifteen percent 552 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 12: in twenty twenty six, So this is going to mark 553 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 12: the third year of a downturn. And really, to put 554 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,719 Speaker 12: things into perspective, assuming we're down in other you know, 555 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 12: double digits in twenty six, we're going to be volumes 556 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 12: are going to be at the lowest level in more 557 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 12: than four decades as long as we've been tracking the industry. 558 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 12: So I do think there's pretty high degree of confidence 559 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 12: that this will mark the trough of the cycle. And 560 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 12: we actually think that downside risk is probably limited here 561 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 12: and relative to a lot of the other sectors that 562 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 12: we cover. The problem is, you know, farm fundamental still 563 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 12: remain quite weak, crop prices are still low, while the 564 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 12: government still continues to hand out additional aid payments. Farmers 565 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 12: historically don't use this to go out and spend on 566 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 12: new machinery. But we think really the bigger overhang here 567 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 12: is still the lingering export market uncertainty. You know, we 568 00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 12: did have a US China trade agreement. I think farmers 569 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 12: are really just going to take a wait and see approach, 570 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 12: and until we get tangible progress on you know, China 571 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 12: executing on some of these purchase orders and commitments, I 572 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 12: think farmers are just going to be hesitant to go 573 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 12: out and spend on equipment. When we do see that 574 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 12: come to fruition, hopefully then you'll start to see a 575 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 12: rebound and crop prices, and then maybe we could become 576 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 12: a little bit more constructive on the equipment outlook there. 577 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 2: So just to put a bow on that, Chris weig 578 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 2: about thirty seconds off, what is the export market for 579 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 2: the US farmer generally on average? And what is it today? 580 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 12: Yeah, so we export the vast majority of particularly our 581 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,040 Speaker 12: row crops soybeans. China is still the largest buyer of 582 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 12: our beans. We do send a lot of corn to 583 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 12: Mexico in Japan as well, but put those big row 584 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 12: crops corn, soy wheat. That's what really drives farmer profitability. 585 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 12: It's more than half of US crop cash receipts and 586 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 12: we need to start to see some kind of a 587 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 12: rebound there before. I think we've become a little bit 588 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 12: more positive on the outlook. 589 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,760 Speaker 2: Thanks to Chris Cheerle, you know, Bloomberg Intelligence senior US 590 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 2: machinery analyst. We shift gears now to the creative side 591 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 2: of financial storytelling. 592 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 3: Wall Street has long been a backdrop for films exploring ambition, 593 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 3: excess and high stakes drama, from The Wolf of Wall 594 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 3: Street to Margin Call and The Big Short. 595 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 2: Now you can add another to your list. It's called 596 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 2: bull Run, a film based on the memoir entitled Discussion 597 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 2: Materials Tales of a Rookie Wall Street Investment Banker. For more, 598 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 2: we caught up the film's writer and producer, Bill Keenan. 599 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 13: So like all those movies classics, right, they, bull Run 600 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 13: has an outsider as a protagonist, So we kind of 601 00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 13: have that journey of someone entering this world trying to 602 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,959 Speaker 13: figure out what to do and where they fit in. 603 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 13: I think the difference is a lot of those films 604 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 13: follow that story of kind of there's this crazy excess, 605 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 13: there's ultimately this corruption that happens and then redemption, and 606 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 13: the protagonist in bull Run really retains this outsider's perspective, 607 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 13: which is the way I experienced it. I kind of 608 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 13: saw life through the eyes of a storyteller and tried 609 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 13: to maintain this distance, and I think we tried to 610 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 13: do that in this film. So it's not so much 611 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 13: about the corruption as it is about just observing the 612 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 13: absurdity that goes on in this world. 613 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 2: So you were on Wall Street. Tell us what you 614 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 2: did in Wall Street and how that might have influenced 615 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 2: kind of this product. 616 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 13: Yeah, what I did, well, my title I was an 617 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 13: investment banking associate in the Industrials group at Deutsche Bank. 618 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,520 Speaker 13: We parted ways after about two years. I think it 619 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,080 Speaker 13: was mutual. It wasn't for me, and it wasn't They 620 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 13: weren't sad to see me go, but it was I mean, 621 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 13: the beauty of Wall Street is that again as a storyteller, 622 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 13: it's such a combustible environment. So everything is so urgent 623 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 13: and is life and death. But then it's like this 624 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,560 Speaker 13: is a specialty lubricin's deal, and like it's not. It's 625 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 13: okay if it doesn't go through, but it's fun to 626 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 13: be a part of it. I knew the second that 627 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 13: I started this would be so ripe with anecdotes and 628 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 13: characters that it was you know, I need to stay 629 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 13: long enough that I could get enough material to write 630 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 13: about it. 631 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 3: I kind of think of your book Discussion Materials as 632 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 3: a twenty twenty version of Liars Poker, except instead of 633 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 3: bond Trader, as you're writing about investment bankers. So when 634 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 3: you were there, I mean, you kind of sounds like 635 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 3: you decided early on that you're going to take notes 636 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 3: and observe everything. What were you doing in meetings? Were 637 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 3: you taking notes on what people were saying, or were 638 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 3: you kind of engaging in you know, the lubricant steal. 639 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I think you know like this. 640 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 13: I was always commended at the beginning by like the 641 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 13: staffers and the senior bankers because they saw me with 642 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 13: the notepads and every day it was a new notepad. 643 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 13: And of course they didn't necessarily know that I wasn't 644 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 13: taking notes on the content as much as like who 645 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 13: was doing what and what would lend itself to a story. 646 00:33:56,160 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 13: But it was, you know, it felt like it was 647 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 13: a lot longer than two years, but I got I 648 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 13: got enough out out of those two years to you know. 649 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 2: They pack a lot in two years because you're working 650 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:09,880 Speaker 2: around the clock. 651 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 13: You're working, Yeah, And you know, I'd like to kind 652 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 13: of the way that I try to capture what the 653 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,839 Speaker 13: experience was like. The first day that I showed up, 654 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 13: I didn't even know where my desk was, and I'm 655 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 13: kind of going around this maze of cubicles and I 656 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,480 Speaker 13: get called over to the staffer and he says, here's 657 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 13: an address, and here's three names. And ultimately what I 658 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,319 Speaker 13: was tasked with doing that first day was taking around 659 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 13: these three energy executives through midtown Manhattan. They start were 660 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:34,759 Speaker 13: starting a new venture and they were looking to raise 661 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,240 Speaker 13: like a couple hundred million dollars from these private equity firms. 662 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,319 Speaker 13: And so I said to the staffer, you know, we 663 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 13: just met. You know, I don't know what's going on. 664 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,720 Speaker 13: And his response was definitely, don't tell that to these guys, 665 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 13: like as far as they know, you're a full timer 666 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 13: and you've been here for a long time. And so 667 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 13: you know, being thrown in the deep end. Then ultimately 668 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 13: meeting these guys and and feeling that responsibility, it was, 669 00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,719 Speaker 13: you know, you feel accountable. Tuesday, I show up, I 670 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 13: gets AFT on a fertilizer deal and I had two 671 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 13: tasks that day. I do find my desk. I sit 672 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 13: at my desk for twelve hours. And the first task 673 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,839 Speaker 13: is to chart the cow dung spot prices historically over time. 674 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 13: And the second thing is the managing director in that 675 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 13: sector he had recently undergone gastric bypass surgery. He lost 676 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 13: about eighty pounds, and so I had to change the 677 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 13: photo of him in the team pages of all the decks. 678 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,919 Speaker 13: And I'm thinking, Monday, Tuesday, what's Wednesday going to bring? 679 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,640 Speaker 13: But like this is this is like two, this is gold. 680 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 3: It is gold. But you know, and this is why 681 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:34,920 Speaker 3: it's so great talking to you and the book is 682 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 3: so fantastic. You also chronicle participating in these odd meetings 683 00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 3: with managing directors, updating sell spreadsheets at two in the morning, 684 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,560 Speaker 3: reformatting the font in pitch books. I think about all 685 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,319 Speaker 3: this and how open AI in twenty twenty five is 686 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 3: hiring former investment bankers to train its models and presumably 687 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,680 Speaker 3: replace the need for to hire people like you to 688 00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,399 Speaker 3: handle these mundane tasks. Is that a good thing. 689 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 13: I think all these things are going to need oversight, 690 00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 13: like we know. But I mean, the reality is we 691 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,440 Speaker 13: were sort of outsourcing it, not to AI, but to 692 00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 13: all these other companies and other countries, and they did 693 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,279 Speaker 13: a lot of my work. To be honest, I kind 694 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,520 Speaker 13: of took credit for most of it and change the 695 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,879 Speaker 13: names and made sure all the everything appeared as though 696 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,359 Speaker 13: I had done the work. But anything that makes it 697 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,320 Speaker 13: more efficient and gets kind of people out of the 698 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,480 Speaker 13: way when they don't serve a purpose, that's additive. I 699 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 13: think it is useful. 700 00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been telling Scarlett, you know, the first two 701 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,359 Speaker 2: or three years of my I was in investment banking 702 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,279 Speaker 2: associate as well. After business. Well, I felt like most 703 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 2: of what I did can be I'm sorry to say, 704 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 2: but I mean, though I need to be sitting at 705 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,240 Speaker 2: the printer at two o'clock in the morning on a Tuesday, 706 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,320 Speaker 2: I can't AI do this with me. 707 00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:50,320 Speaker 13: But totally the fact is though to have that experience 708 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 13: as a human to pay or use their huge value 709 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 13: to that, and you hope that there's a way. I 710 00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,239 Speaker 13: think the way humans are, they always find a way 711 00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,320 Speaker 13: to go towards struggle. 712 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 2: My kids are in the workforce now and the whole 713 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 2: work from home versus I'm like, go to the office. 714 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,960 Speaker 2: All my memories are sitting at the printer and the 715 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,479 Speaker 2: guys I sat at the printer with at two o'clock 716 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 2: in the morning on a Tuesday, and they're still my 717 00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:12,719 Speaker 2: best friend, the guys that I can call up and 718 00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 2: they will I need anything. 719 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:15,240 Speaker 4: Boom. 720 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's how it goes with Band of Brothers. Really, So, Bill, 721 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 3: when you adapted this into a film, what was that 722 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 3: process like? Was that I mean, I'm sure you could 723 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:24,399 Speaker 3: write a book about that process too. 724 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:25,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean. 725 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,320 Speaker 13: There were practical issues. We shot it during the pandemic, 726 00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 13: so this was an independent film shot in one location. 727 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 13: So we're all over each other. We got the mass on. 728 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 13: We had to shut down production in fact for a 729 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,839 Speaker 13: couple of days, so there was that. We got through it. 730 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,120 Speaker 13: As far as the story, you know, so much of 731 00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:44,239 Speaker 13: my experience was me versus Excel, me versus PowerPoint me, 732 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 13: and the phone with somebody telling me the numbers didn't tie. 733 00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 13: I just screwed this up. And so there's a lot 734 00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,279 Speaker 13: of internal drama that's great for a book but does 735 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,800 Speaker 13: not lend itself to a visual medium. So the director 736 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,759 Speaker 13: did a great job of really retaining the spirit of 737 00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,720 Speaker 13: the book and the humor and how I viewed that world, 738 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 13: but then putting it in a visually compelling, commercial sort 739 00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:05,320 Speaker 13: of feel. 740 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,440 Speaker 2: Our thanks to Bill keenan writer and producer of the 741 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,400 Speaker 2: film Bull Run. That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence 742 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,880 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on 743 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,200 Speaker 2: two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries. 744 00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,920 Speaker 3: And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b I 745 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,160 Speaker 3: go on the terminal. I'm Scarlett Foo and. 746 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories and 747 00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:27,280 Speaker 2: global business headlines are coming up right now.